Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Staff Pow-Wow: NFC South

Episode Date: May 28, 2021

John Hansen and the Fantasy Points staff break down the NFC South on the 2021 Virtual Pow-Wow livestream series. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Get the yes you've been waiting for at Capital One.ca.ca. slash yes. Terms and conditions apply. It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome back to the 2021 powwow series at FantasyPoint.com. My name is Joe Dolan. And the following conversation with John Hansen,

Adam Kaplan, Greg CoSell, Graham Barfield and myself, is a breakdown of the NFC. It was an informal conversation that we live streamed on the website and on YouTube and on Periscope. And we're also bringing to you in audio form here. I hope you guys enjoy the fact that we've made this into a podcast. It was a huge, not a huge commitment, but it was a huge request. And I hope everybody enjoys that. But without further ado, here is a 2021 breakdown of the NFC South Division. What is up, everyone?

Welcome to part two of the virtual powwow here at fantasy points.com. I am John Hansen, joined by the usual cast of characters here. Our guy, Graham Barfield, Joe Dolan, our man Benjamin Cucanus, behind the glass, doing the voodoo that, well, he do, doing a good job per usual. I think my camera angle just got screwed up here somehow. I have no idea how that happened. But we shall just move onward and upward. I will fix that as we move along here.

Our guy Greg Cosell and also Adam Kaplan is here. And we're ready to go here. So without any further ado, kick it off here. We covered yesterday the NFC East and the NFC North. Today we're going to hit up the NFC South and the NFC West. We start in the NFC South with the Atlanta Falcons. just throw it on out there. Adam, I can start with you. Would you feel better or worse about a guy like Calvin Ridley with Julio Jones off the roster? I mean, there are data points that say and point to,

you know, Ridley cleans up when Julio is not on the field. But overall, long term, I'm a little concerned. Would you, would you feel better or worse about Calvin Ridley if Julio Jones is off this roster? Well, theoretically, his target shares how is it going to go up? up and Pitts obviously will be involved. You and I talked about this on our show on Monday that, look, they just don't have much behind Jones and Ridley. So he's going to have to be the guy. And look, eventually they knew this when they drafted Ridley. Later in his career, he would take over for Jones and Jones would retire.

Well, the differences that Falcons are likely going to wind up training him at some point. Could be actually soon. We'll see. And he's going to be their number one pass target. And then the other thing is how much if this does happen, like I think it's going to happen. eventually. How much of a share will Pitts get? Will he be ready? As a rookie hybrid tight end, how much could he get? And how much vine could he get early on? These are things with the new coaches staff, by the way, which we're not going to know right now. But to answer your question,

yes, Ridley's target share will go up and obviously would benefit him. Then we'll have to see how good Arthur Smith is. Once he starts getting double team, can he win? We're not going to know that until we get there. There's been some talk here. I'm not exactly sure where it emanated from. I don't believe it was the Julio Jones call about, you know, Matt Ryan losing, you know, a little juice off the fastball, Greg. I think that's fair. He's Matt Ryan.

He's the same guy pretty much every single game. But do you think that's a fair statement that he has lost a little juice off the fastball, which is really a concern because he never had a gun to begin with? Well, I think it's noticeable on deeper throws. I think the deeper throws lose velocity on the back end. They don't quite get down the field as much. as they did earlier, never had a big arm. But I think Matt Ryan can still function perfectly fine.

He had a good year, a year ago. You know, I think one player, and I'm sure you guys are aware of him, and they really like him, is Russell Gage. He was actually the most targeted player on third down last year for the Falcons. So obviously, he did most of his work from the slot. So the question is, is he now an outside receiver? in other words, if they go 12 personnel, which Arthur Smith likes to do, and they certainly have two quality tight ends in Pitts,

who's a hybrid and Hearst, who did catch 56 balls a year ago, they go 12, is Gage the other wide out. And what can they do formationally because pits can line up anywhere? The kid, Sekees, he's kind of like Gage, right? I'm sure he could outside. Where's Zikias typically line? Alamedi Zakias. Yeah.

he's a little guy. I mean, he's... Yeah, exactly. He had a big game last year when Ridley was inactive. He had a big game against Denver. He's kind of a... You know, he fits the category of a lot of the receivers that came out this year, the smaller receivers that you can move all around.

I don't know if he's a full-time player. He's a player they like as well because he can provide big play, a big play dimension. That's a great point. Adam, who do they have otherwise here in the roster to line up outside if they let go of Julio Jones? Does anyone stand out to you? Yeah, I mean, that was in the mix, but he's got to have a Joker type of player.

Yeah, no, Gage is a guy they like because he can move, but I don't know anything about Frank Darby. Maybe Greg could chime in there. Well, they also just signed Taj Sharp, who played in Tennessee when Arthur Smith was there. He's there to play. Yeah, he can't run, just so you know. He just doesn't run very well. I've talked to guys who've coached him.

He's a great kid. He'll block for the run game. He just doesn't run very well. That's why he keeps bouncing around. So I'd be shocked if he would factor in. Russell Gage, probably the quietest 72 catch season in league history. He really?

Holy small. Pretty sure it was 72, Graham. Got 72 balls, yes. Wow. Yeah. And he was their most targeted third down receiver. So keep that in mind. Yeah.

Graham, you have some thoughts on Calvin Ridley. Yeah, I mean, right now where it's May 26th, we don't know if Julio's going to be on the roster or not. But if they do end up trading Julio, Calvin Ridley has like the wide receiver won in his range of outcomes. Like I know we love Kyle Pitts. But man, I mean, in the eight games that Julio has missed over the last two years, Calvin Ridley has averaged 107 yards per game. He's put up 20 fantasy points per game. He's gone over, I believe it's 65 yards.

in every single game or scored a touchdown. Man, the ceiling for Ridley is just going to be crazy. I mean, he's averaging like 11 targets per game without Julio. So, you know, that'll come down a little bit with Pitts, seeing some of the target share of it. Man, like, it's interesting because like if Julio sticks, Ridley's probably a little bit overvalued right now because Pitts is, you know,

going to command a pretty big chunk of the targets. But if Julio is dealt, really, man, I mean, he could outscore everybody this year. Adam, what is your confidence level in the new staff, Arthur Smith, Dave Vergone, taking advantage of a unicorn type of player in Kyle Pitts? I mean, the dude is, if they let Julio go, he's going to have to line up outside and kind of play a Julio-like role at times. But your thoughts on this coaching staff, you know, they're just kind of getting started, but certainly some track record there of success in Tennessee. What is your gut feel? What's the word in the street on these guys

to take advantage of a guy like Piggins? Ragon is or take care of the past game concepts. He was responsible or helped for last year with, or he was with Chicago, but he really did a good job with Chicago. I know they spoke very highly of him. And so, sort of the Titans when he was there.

And he's with Arthur Smith, who's one of his best friends. So I assume, based on what I know about Ragon's background, that they have a pretty good plan in place for Pits, whether Julio Jones is on the roster or not. I believe that they'll be able to free up Pitts. I understand they've been coached anybody like this guy,

but one of the big reasons why they drafted Pitts at number four is because Arthur Smith has a plan. That was the way I understand it. He was a very strong voice in Pitts being drafted at number four and not taking quarterback. So they obviously have to account for that and they're going to have a plan for him. He'll be targeted a lot. And by the way, Pitts is a great kid.

He's pre-draft testing. I'm told he did very well with teams. So I expect him. You know, it's one thing for the guy to be. fourth overall, we still has to prove that he knows what he's doing when he gets on the field. And everything I've heard about, Pitts would suggest that he should be a fact early on. Joe, we've got one man here in the backfield. That is Mike Davis.

Really not much else. Sixth round pick for fantasy. You know, Javian Hawkins, the kid Huntley might be in the mix here. But is this too good to be true, Joe, with Mike Davis just lined up? I'm starting to get worried, John, because, like, I mean, fifth, six round pick, it's totally fine for him. Like, that's not going to break your draft. It has a chance to make it.

I'm worried, though. I don't know. Have you guys seen the photos that Mike Davis has been posting on Twitter? I mean, he's blowing up his own ADP. His legs are the size of tree trunks. I mean, but, you know, John, I know Greg watched Javian Hawkins, and I want to get his opinion on this backfield. But, I mean, you know Arthur Smith's going to run the football.

They're going to throw it more. than they did in Tennessee. They have to. I mean, the personnel dictates that. They don't have Derek Henry. But Mike Davis did a solid job for fantasy when he came in for McCaffrey last year. It looks like they're giving him the opportunity. Greg, from a talent standpoint, can Mike Davis be the foundation to borrow one of your

favorite terms within the context of this offense? Well, then you have, you know, what they have to figure out is what they want their offense to look at. Arthur Smith has clearly spoken about the fact that this is not going to be the Tennessee offense because they don't have that kind of player in the backfield. So, you know, the question is, how many carries per game does a Mike Davis get? J.V. and Hawkins is an interesting player, and he's a player that they like because I actually spoke to them about him. Now, again, what that means, that's really hard to know. But Hawkins is a naturally quick and explosive back,

he's got really good balance. He's got home run hitting ability. Obviously, he's not particularly big. So he's not a guy that will become a quote unquote feature back. But, you know, I think that they might see him as a guy that can mix in with Mike Davis. Yeah. So what you're ultimately asking, I think, is, you know, how many carries a game is Mike Davis going to get? And that's really hard to know.

Davis is built really well. He's not small. he's a grinder. So if they're comfortable with that, if they can create big plays in the past game and they're comfortable with a back that maybe he can get 230 carries and be an average of 4.2,

be that kind of guy. They'd be very comfortable with that in the context of what they have. Greg, I think Joe used that word, foundation, and I don't know if he even meant to say that. I think what he meant was, like, as you break it down, you have foundation backs like Derek Henry,

and then you have primary backs. Well, he'll be their primary back. Right. The question is, what does that mean, you know, from a fantasy standpoint in terms of a number of carries? I mean, I'd be curious, John, what your projection is for Mike Davis right now, given that he's the only proven back on their roster. Let's take a look and see what I have for Mr. Davis.

That would be, see, it's a little bit of a difficult situation because I'm kind of waiting to see if they do anything else. I know you can't just, like, viable running backs don't grow on trees. Only so many good options there on the street. I haven't with 210 carries and 44 catches. So, you know, I do have him. And that might make sense.

Just so you know, John, the reason why they can't, they literally, they have the least amount of cast space of any NFL team. Correct. They can't really do anything right now. They're tapped out of restructures. They've, they've done as many as they can. So that's why they haven't added it.

They will add somebody as, some point who may or may not take some carriers away from Davis. I would expect them to get someone who would. I mean, asking Mike Davis to do this. I mean, he did a very good job last year as filling in. But as John, you and I have talked about asking him to do it for 17 games now is a little bit strong for me. Hey, Adam, on the Julio Jones thing, like if they, do they have to trade him before June

first? No, they're going to, no, I mean, they'll get, they're going to get, because of each team it's to post-June 1 designations. So they're going to, some of these, some of the guys they release, they're going to get a cap rebate next week. You're going to see some teams make some moves last next week, which on June 2nd and after that didn't have enough money. Now they're going to have enough money.

They have, as Arthur Smith said, it was interesting. He didn't want to address Julio Jones at all, just to say that with their cap situation, and they have some things that they can do after next week, and there's some things that they can't do. One of them is trading Jones. He's not going to say it. And the way that they'll save some cap space.

And then the issue then trading him is to wherever he goes, what are they going to get back? Are they going to get no player back so they don't take cast space back? Are they just going to get draft picks? I would think draft picks because of their situation. But they're in a dire position. You rarely see situations like this. well Adam as we know one player that will factor into the mix in the backfield is cordial

Patterson unfortunately yeah he is on the roster real quick before we move on Greg um want to ask you your thoughts on Kyle Pitts Greg let's say we do go a lot of 12 you get Haydenhurst on the field with pits and I would imagine Ridley engage I could argue that Kyle Pitts could be clearly the number two option in the passing game your thoughts on their ability to get him the ball early in the career, you know, high percentage type of passes. Can he, I mean, I'm not going to say plug and play and replace Julio, but how much of the lost production if they do, in fact,

lose Julio, can Kyle Pitts replace? Oh, he'll replace a lot. They didn't draft him at four. You know, he's going to be out there right away. He's going to play meaningful snaps, John. Yeah. They, as Adam said, they have a plan. They're going to move him around.

They're going to play a lot of, let's assume Julio's gone. They're going to play a lot of 12 personnel. And because of Pitts, it can look like 11 personnel. It can look like 22 personnel. Pitts is going to be a major factor, John. Yeah. Adam, would you be shocked if Kyle Pitts opened it up right out of the gate, week one, eight, nine targets every week.

It's Philly. Yeah, against Philly in Atlanta. No, just generally, though. No, right out of the gate, eight, nine targets. Again, if you just look at past target group, right? Ridley will be number one. If Jones has traded, Pits has got to be number two. Hayden Hurts fades.

You know, you and I've talked about him. He's just, he's not the one's physical player. He's a pretty good athlete, but he doesn't. He just got to make up. He just got him from talking to teams that played him, Greg. He's too much of a finesse player. Yeah, but the point is within the context of Atlanta. He ain't going to be number.

I'm going to tell you this. Pitts will be number two, John, answer your question. As long as he knows what he's doing, he'll be the number two passing target. that should happen. Offensive line somewhat still intact. Not great. Underwhelming didn't really help it all that much. A lot of high round picks. Yeah. They're just there. They're not bad. They're not good. They're just kind of there. Although, Greg, in pass pro, maybe they are bad, right? I mean, Matt Ryan is always under siege. Well, they also had to throw the ball a lot last year because of their defense. So that factors in as well.

Yep. Moving on. Let's talk Carolina Panthers. a very intriguing team here. Greg, I'll go to you. And we all know about Sam Darnold. I've asked you about Sam Darnel a million times. I've asked you some form of this question in the past. We know that he doesn't process real well. He does have mechanical, you know, flaws from the waist down, seems to unravel.

Hopefully he gets good coaching. I think we should all have a lot of confidence in that role in Joe Brady. How much can Sam Darnold be helped by enviseled? which I mean good skill players around him, Matt Ruhl, that whole culture, Joe Brady, you know, scheme it up. How much of his deficiencies can be masked, if you will, by environment? Well, clearly with a healthy McAfrey, this team's going to run the ball. The Jets could not do that. So Donald's in a different situation in terms of the structure of the offense.

Now, ideally, those issues, those mechanical issues, those field vision at times issues are also worked on. I guarantee the Jets worked on them as well. Adam Gase became an easy whipping boy for everybody, but those things do get worked on by coaches. The question is, can Donald take the practice to the field in games? Up to this point, he struggled with that, so we don't know. But the point is, they can run. a totally different offense than the Jets had to run because they've got McCaffrey. They drafted Hubbard in the fourth round for a reason.

They're going to run the football. They've got a lot of weapons on the outside, but this is not going to be a shotgun. Let's toss it all over the yard team because Darnels can't function that way. And ultimately, Matt Rule does not want to play that way. What back to you, Greg? Real quick, Greg, what do you think of Darnal's arm strength? It's good. It's not elite.

He's not a power thrower, but Donald, Donald can make every throw. Good. Snap it off pretty well. Terrace Marshall, Greg, I think in Carolina what they want to do is line these guys up all over the place. And correct me if I'm wrong, but Terrace Marshall is a guy you could probably do that with right out of the gate, line them up anywhere, even including the slot. As you've mentioned, those lines are getting bluerier and bluerier. There's no longer more often than not the prototypical slot receiver the small five-nine guy. No, and Marshall did that in college.

He lined up in the slot. He lined up at Boundary X. He lined up in the inside slot to trips. He was used as a motion receiver. Marshall's got a lot of talent. He's long. He's fluid. He's an easy mover, but there's some suddenness to him.

To me, I think he won't happen this year because of who else they have, but I think he's got the ability, and I don't know his mindset, so I don't know the kid, but I think he's got the ability to develop into a volume one kind of receiver down the road. Yep, that's a real nice pick there. And I also real quick, like Shai Smith. You know, I read your profile at the FantasyPoint.com draft guide, the app, still for sale, by the way, if you'd like to check that out. And we do have the promo code up on the Zoom here if you'd like to take advantage of the early bird special here. But shy Smith, Greg, when you're...

When I read your overview, boy, I thought of Jameson Crowder and Sam Darnold, you know, in the slot. I know he's not quite as electric as Crowder, but, you know, I think the route running in the reliable hand, Sam Darnold may gravitate toward this guy at some point. Well, this kid's really physically tough and competitive. He almost plays like Steve Smith in terms of his competitiveness. Wow. He's not that kind of player, you know, in terms of trades, physical trade. but he's that competitive. He's more straight line than laterally explosive.

He's not a loose hip guy. You know, you don't think of him running those pivot routes, those whip routes, those juke routes. That's not really him. He's a little more straight line. I wouldn't say he's explosive, but he's got really good hands. And as I said, he's super competitive and he catches the ball.

Yeah, I think he'll be, I actually think he has a chance to, you know, be there. fourth receiver for what it's worth, maybe even over, over David Moore. We shall see about that. A little Dan Arnold, he'll get targeted. You know, we'll have like four big games. We have no idea when, but there's a guy that they can, you know, take some big plays down the field.

Adam, what do you, what do you think of when you look at this offensive line, though? Is it prohibitive? Can it just be mediocre? Like, just don't stink. Where are you with this old line? Because that would be, if anything is there downfall, year offensively. It has to be other than injuries, this old lie. Yeah, I mean, it's better. You know, Elf line's a guy. They actually, I think their own line coach, for what I understand,

really wanted him in there. They like him. They liked him for the draft when Minnesota drafted him. It just didn't work out there. But the issue, they have one issue. It's left tackle. It's an absolute disaster. Cam Irving is not a starting left tackle. He's a decent six offensive lineman. It won't be Greg Little. I could bet the house. It will not be Greg Little. Greg may know about Brady Christensen. I don't know if he'll be ready or not, but you got a right-hand throwers blindside. That would be the one concerned left tackle. Just another guy we should mention because I think, you know, we talked about this team running the football is they drafted Tommy Trembal. And he was, he's an unbelievably good blocking tight end,

unbelievably good. And actually has athletic ability to develop into a quality receiving tight end. but he will be kind of an h-back, full-back blocking tight end, and he will knock your face mask off. This kid is a phenomenal blocker. So this is going to be a running football team. John, so I know they have a ton of weapons. I don't know how that all exactly map out in terms of targets, but they're going to start with the run game.

Yeah, no doubt about it. Ultimately, eventually, you know, as our guy, Ron Jaworski always says, points come out of the passing game, we're going to need those guys. on the outside the receivers, but we know where they're going to start and hopefully finish offensively by running that rock. Oh, we should mention that Robbie Anderson

so the last year was a deal. So that's where Terrace Marshall comes in. Yeah. You may wind up taking this job next year. Now, I will tell you from talking to Carolina, they're actually pretty happy with Robbie. He's done everything right off the field, no issues, he's been healthy.

And the one thing I will tell you, John, you and I talk about this. Greg knows this. Teddy Bridgewater would not throw the ball down field. that's why Anderson's yards per catch was so low. I mean, he got open sometimes. He just Teddy wouldn't throw it downfield. I don't think that's based on what Greg said about Arnold's arm,

because those throws are going to be there on Brady's office. Donald can throw it. Right. So I would expect, based on what Greg just said, I would expect Robbie Anderson's big place to come back where they weren't there last year. He became also a possession receiver. I don't think that's going to happen. I think that's going to change this season.

Greg, do you agree with that? Because, you know, I watched it early. And it did seem like they want to, to use Robbie on those shallow crossers and the like near the line of scrimmage and utilize his run after you've got to play to your quarterback John yeah in your past game you got to play to your quarterback so I mean we can sit here from a fantasy standpoint and say oh boy Robbie Anderson what's the problem but you got to play to your quarterback in the past game Donald Donald's issues are not a function of his and I hate to use this phrase because

I've been figuring trying to figure out how to better describe what it means when I talk but Donald's issues are not armed talent. You know, and I know that's a cliche, but Donald can make the throws. He's got a much better. Teddy Ridgewater has just an average arm. Probably an average arm at best. Yeah.

That said, DJ Moore did make a decent number of downfield plays, 18 yards of catch. Graham. He had a lot of run after catch, too. Yeah. Graham, where are you with DJ Moore? I feel like his first three years in the league, I know in your stat pack article,

it was like, what was it like 18th all time? Over 3,000 yards. The quietest start to a career, really. We've seen a little while. He doesn't get a lot of buzz, but I do like him quite a bit. I think he's an absolute baller. Well, what's funny is, you know, we would think of Robbie Anderson as the deep threat in this offense,

but it was actually DJ Moore last year. Yeah, more's averaged up the target was like around like the D.K. Metcalfe, Chase Claypool range, which was, which is crazy. by the way, Robbie Anderson caught like the quietest 95 balls ever last year. Ever. Dude caught 95 balls. But, you know, I think what's interesting to me, and I think the biggest question right now we have for this team is who plays the slot.

Because Sam Darnold, I don't know Scott has written and talked about this. Like, Sam Darnold targets his slot receivers like crazy. And sure, it was a little bit of a function of, you know, the Jets offense and James and Crowder was being their best receiver for a number of years, et cetera. but I think, I mean, if DJ Moore lines up in the slot more this season than last year, because he was typically an outside boundary receiver, Samuel is in the slot like 70% of the time and Moore was only in the slot like 20%. If we get more in the slot like 50% of the time in this offense and moved around a little bit more,

he, you know, he's been a great receiver too for fantasy, but that might be what gets him into the receiver. One range is just, you know, running more routes in Darnold's hot zone and probably picking up a few more targets when he does so. Yeah, and that's why I brought up Shai Smith, by the way. That's why I've kind of been interested in him, although I think initially they're going to line up all over the place with Moore Anderson and Marshall lining up all over. But good point about more in that slot. Joe, number one pick of the draft overall 100 percent, Chris McCaffrey, or is it more like, you know, like nine times out of 10 you'll go McCaffrey? Yeah, I was like,

I was trying to be a little cute earlier in the offseason because I cut, I, I, I, I, I really love Dalvin Cook's situation in Minnesota. And I love the player. But, I mean, just listening to Greg and Adam talk, I mean, McCaffrey is just going to be utterly peppered with targets and carries. And the opportunity is going to be there. Yeah, checkdowns for sure. Yeah, I mean, it's going to be everything.

So, yeah, I would say nine times out of ten, I'd take McCaffrey. Now, if I kept drawing, John, like you said, the number one pick and a best ball, I definitely would mix in a cook here as though. Sure. But yeah, so I don't think it's as like as staggering as maybe the projections have it, but like McCaffrey is the best bet. Before we move on, Greg, give us your overview quickly on this defense. I see some intriguing names. I think they need to come all together here.

But, you know, Burns, I think, can get to the quarterback, maybe not consistently. You tear gross Matos last year's draft picked, Eric Brown. Shaq Thompson, they had Reddick, they had, of course, J.C. Horn, Jeremy Chin. Well, it appeared based on the people they signed that they're going to transition to a little more conventional use of personnel. Because last year they were a three safety defense. Based on what they've signed, Hassan Reddick, Denzel Perriman, it looks like they'll become, you know, more of a true four, three as a base, as a base, you know, depending on how much they play that. The other thing I would say is drafting horn and actually a corner that I liked, Keith Taylor in the fifth round, they are both man-to-man corners.

So they played a ton of zone last year. It would not surprise me to see them transition to playing more man coverage based on who they drafted. You're watching the Fantasy Points.com 2021 virtual powwow, part two of the series. here next week we'll cover the aFC we've already covered the nfc east and the nfc north you can check that out on youtube and on the website if you missed that we go to the new orleans saints and adam you've been kind of leading the charge on this one i'm alone no it's early it does feel like a little momentum here for taseom uh you're still in on tason hill winning the job i agree why yeah look you could do more with tason mill i'm not talking about as a running back

he's more mobile. You got the second reaction ability, which is talking to quarterback coaches, they like that as a bonus, because when the pocket breaks down, you've got to be able to move. And this is certainly an issue for James compared to Hill.

And they've had Tason's late in 17. This is their chance. Why did they invest in all this time in money of this player? He really should be out there, but I know that they like James, John, as I told you in December. Behind the scenes, they like him very much.

And I'm a little bit surprised with Ian Book. They drafted him as high as they did. but based on what I know about him, but getting back to Hill, it's going to be close. They're going to take it through training camp and we'll see. But I just think it overall, Hill gives him a little bit more juice.

Greg, give us your overview of what you saw from Tassum Hill, throwing the ball, decent arm, obviously the legs. He's got two of them, actually. It's impressive. But, you know, did he look like a professional quarterback to you?

Or did he look like a guy who's kind of been a gadget player who just was thrown in there and let's see what we have in Taysam Hill. No, I think he looked like a professional quarterback, albeit one who continues to need work, which is not unsurprising. But he did not look like a gadget guy. You know, keep in mind that Sean Payton does a really good job with his offensive design and concepts and schemes. So he did a really good job of defining reads and throws for Hill.

He'll executed. And then as Adam said, a lot of coaches. have come to believe that second reaction ability is more critical than it was prior. And he certainly gives you that. So it would not surprise me, and I have no inside information. It would not surprise me if he won the job. Yep. And Graham, if that's the case, could you make an argument that Taysom Hill is the value pick

at the quarterback position for fantasy? Oh, yeah. I mean, you know, TASM for the limitations he has as a passer. I mean, those three starts he made last year, whatever it was. I mean, he was not only highly involved on, you know, they're just kind of designed stuff in between the 20s, but I mean, he was taking like legit, you know, goal line carries. Last night I did a cutline draft with the NFFC guys.

And I actually took both Saints quarterbacks late. And my thinking is like, you know, I just basically encapsulate whatever I get out of the Saints quarterback. Whoever starts, I'll have that as my QB2. I actually took Lance in that draft too, and I kind of regret it now because I ended up getting both of them. But yeah, I love Taysom and James late, especially if you're, you know, if you took a top eight, top 10 quarterback in your draft, I mean, both of those guys have, you know, QB1 ceilings. It just depends on, on, you know, who makes the starts. But I think, I think I've come around. I thought it was James, and I think you

guys have convinced me, I think we'll see. They'll give Tayson the first shot. You know, the other thing to keep in mind, John, is they have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. It's arguably a top three-oh line. So, you know, that's a really good starting point. And that, you know, it's good, good in pass, bro, obviously here with Ramcheck and Armstead, but pretty damn good blocking for the run, too. And that'll help Taseham Hill when he takes off and runs. Yeah. You know, and I think for Sean Payton, given the way he thinks, Hill just expands the offense in a lot of ways that obviously Winston can't do. So, you know, I feel pretty comfortable that it's going to be Tassum Hill.

All right. I hope you're right, because the great thing, Greg, is the Internet thinks it's going to be James. And I'm getting kind of a laugh. Well, I don't. I look, hey. Nobody knows. It's actually wide open. I don't have any insight info.

I don't either. I'm just trying to think, understanding Sean Peyton, you know, and I've talked with him through the years, but understanding the way he thinks, we know that he's an offensive guy. We know that he's really good with design and scheme. And I think he'll just gives him a lot, a lot more options. Real quick, in the four, he made four starts last year. In three of those, he completed over 70% of his passes.

Yeah. I mean, they are, that, that Peyton, to your point, Greg, Peyton is so good. is scheming up, just easy throws. And I remember that game against Atlanta. I mean, he threw like eight straight slants to Michael Thomas. And they all went for like nine to ten yards. But I mean, he was open every single time. So, I mean, this is going to be a highly schemed off.

Yeah. And it's easy to say, John, as we know when you look at their receivers other than Michael Thomas, who ideally is healthy for the whole season, you know, you start to say, okay, who are the guys? And that's a legitimate question. And I can't answer that. So don't ask me. But the point is, is they don't.

have, you know, great players on the outside, but it's a very well-schemed offense. John, keep this in mind, by the way, if it's TASM, and then this gets into how we rank our running backs at the top of the board. Alvin Camara averaged four targets per game in Taysam's four starts at quarterback. He averaged eight and a half targets per game in the other 11 games. So, you know, we always talk about these mobile quarterbacks who will take off and run, not necessarily, great for receiving backs. You know, Camara did have a 10-target game against Philly with Taysam at quarterback, but he also had games of one, two, and three targets.

He actually was held without a reception in one of his games with TASM as a starter. And, you know, for somebody who's a really damn good receiver, and that's been, I mean, Alvin Kamara's produced as a receiver for us for fantasy, I would be a little concerned if Tassum's the starter there. Yeah. Well, that'll be worked on. because they're not going to let Camara not exist. I mean, they paid them too.

Yeah, yeah. I've noticed that. That's why I'm a little bit lower on Camara, Joe. All the reasons you pointed out. But yeah, I have to think that, you know, when Hill was starting, it was the middle of the year, they don't have, he doesn't have that chemistry that Breeze had with Camara. I think that'll come up.

But I do think there's a, there's certainly some signal there because like running, running quarterbacks typically don't throw. to their backs as much as we want them to. I mean, if you look through the history of all the greatest running quarterbacks, you know, their targets to their backs and checkdowns is just not there because they're, you know, if their first, second, third read isn't there, they're running. They're not checking down to the back. Sure.

So I think there is something there to Hill vis-a-vis Winston. Yeah. And for Michael Thomas, it does help with Taysam Hill because Breeze through the running backs, 29% of the time, Graham, as you pointed out in your stat pack, whereas Taysam only threw it 20% of the time. A lot of those extra targets went to Thomas into three games in which Taysam Hill threw it 20 or more times. Thomas had 31 targets, 26 catches, 293, 85% catch rate. That was pretty darn good. Greg, Adam Troutman at Tight End taken over. I was a little surprised by what he did last year.

It may not look like much on the in the box score or on the on the on the stat sheet here. I believe he only had like 16 catches, 15 grabs. But I thought he was quite impactful at times. I thought he made a couple of plays that maybe won a game where I'm like, oh, wow, okay, the Cape can run. I know it's not a sample size that you could talk a lot about, but did you see anything out of Adam Trapman? I mean, I think he's a good athlete and I think that he'll become a factor in the past game.

The question is how much we don't know the answer to that. But, you know, Nick Vinette's been around and he's a nice solid tight end, but he hasn't put up big numbers as a receiver. So, you know, they did draft Troutman in the third round. I would expect him, assuming with good offseason, good camp, to become much more of a factor, John. Yeah, John, just so you know, Vinette was signed to be their wide tight end, talking to someone, who's involved in this decision. And then Troutman will be sort of their move guy.

Yep. Could he block it all, Greg? You know, that I can't answer. So I don't want to just, you know, make it up. But he's pretty good athlete. He's a pretty good athlete. I thought it was a pretty good sign. Like, they got on the ball.

Like, he was involved pretty early. I didn't expect really anything from him last year with Jared Cook on the roster. But, you know, he did a few more things than I thought he would. Granted, he caught, by the way, he caught 15 to 16 targets. That's not bad at all. That's a 94% catch rate. Adam, in terms of the rest of the receiving core, what's your feeling? Do they do they piecemeal this thing together? You know, you work in a Marquez Callaway.

They like, they'll tell you what, they paid him a couple things on Callaway. They gave him a significant signing bonuses on a drafted free agent. They were the, they were strong, very strong on him. You know, he had two separate knee injuries last season. But they do like him. I do, I have to find out where they're going to let him compete against Rayquon Smith for that job opposite Thomas. Then the other question is, We don't know this yet. I mean, we'll try to find out. Without Breeze now, do they, are they more 12 personnel? They're more 11 personnel. Does that change? I don't know. I just, I'm curious with Jared Cook on, do they change things up with those formations?

Back to you, Greg, Trey Kwan, as Adam mentioned, I call them like Mr. Individual Play. Have you seen anything? We know the kids got size and you can run, but did you see anything last year that led you to believe, okay, this kid is growing? expanding. He did fill in pretty well for Michael Thomas at times. No, I think that we know what Smith is, John. I mean, I don't know if he's a volume receiver. I don't think he is. I actually find Calloway, who I did when he came out of Tennessee two years ago,

to be really, really interesting. I mean, he was a big time recruit at Tennessee. He actually came out of Georgia as a top 10 safety recruit and a top 15 athlete recruit. So he's very athletic. He's big. He's physical. Playing off what Adam said, it would not surprise me if Calloway became more of a factor in this past game. Makes sense. Makes a lot of sense. I'm sure he's a free pick in all formats. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he caught 50 balls. I mean, I remember that first game, that he kind of was like a featured guy. I remember liking him. And I believe he caught, you know, a good number of passes, actually. So, yeah. I mean, don't forget, he's just still learning how to play receiver because of what he was in his background.

But he's, there's something about him I liked on tape. I mean, he has size. He showed a lot of flashes in college. He's got a powerful looking body. Yeah, got to play a little skinnier than he was, too, at times. I mean, he's a pretty big kid, but he didn't seem like a lumbering kind of a bigger guy. anybody have anything else here on these New Orleans Saints? They've got a bunch of...

Actually, I don't know, Greg, you didn't see that kid, Kowwan Baker, by the way? No. Okay, because he was somewhat intriguing out of South Alabama. That's a name to keep an eye on. But anybody else have anything else? Latavius Murray is back again. Once again, they don't really do much in the backfield. Anything else before we move on?

No. Okay. All right. Well, let's head. to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They're all back. They're all back.

They're all good. This backfield, though, is fascinating. I got to tell you. They have too many running backs. They do. Way too many. I'm really interested to see. And did they really need to sign Giovanni Bernard?

I don't know why. I mean, I guess. I don't know. I'll tell you exactly why. They've been looking for a pass catcher. Yeah. That's what I was going to say. Yeah.

And Leonard and Ronald Jones both had. ugly moments in past pro and with the sloppy hands. So Greg, that's that's it, right? I mean, Gio's a savvy receiver, a specialty player all the way, and he's actually very good in past pro. So assuming he makes the team, that's going to be their third downback, Greg. I can see Sean Vaughn, forget it. Yeah.

Unfortunately. I mean, for Nets, I don't know. I don't know how they're going to map all this out. I really don't know the answer to that. you know what's funny though John John with Fournett the bucks the when he was with the Jaggars he was their best pest protector that's why he was in on third down yeah now you know you're talking that he didn't block as well as well as for that may be true uh geo at this point is obviously specialty back which will be third down and I I could see that I mean I could see Jones and

Fournette splitting the early down roles Bernard seeing some time a third down guichon vaughan Vaughan and CJ Procyce no out of the mix but graham let me go to you because I believe you kind of like Lenny this year. And my problem is simply this. When you have Ronald Jones in the mix there, and Bruce Ariens likes Ronald Jones, Ronald Jones ran better than Leonard. So to me,

the crux of the matter was Leonard's role in the passing game, basically, which is probably going to take a hit with Gio. That's a problem for me. Yeah, I got any say, like, it's only for best ball. I mean, four net. Yeah, four net's like, going in the ninth or 10th round right now. And typically Rojo, Rojo goes like up, you know, ahead of them a couple times. Really, it's only for

bestball. I don't really want any of these guys for season long. Thank goodness you said that. Yeah. I mean, I like Fournet for bestball. I mean, I think he's going to have some RB one weeks. Same with Rojo. He'll have a big lead plenty of times. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he'll have this two touchdown games. But for season long, I don't really want to touch any of these backs. I want to throw this out to Greg, though, because obviously, Greg, you studied the Buccaneers a ton last year. when you watch them in the playoffs with Fournet

as foundationally as a running back, could you get the sense that the offense was just operating a little bit better? You know, like we have the running backs don't matter discussion, but the run game surely does. Yeah, I know, and Joe, let me interject because it's a cliche, you know, run the ball and all that, but it seemingly that was exactly what they did and it worked.

I mean, it worked really well. Well, there's a difference between saying running backs, are interchangeable and don't matter, but the run game matters. Those are two different statements. So they obviously made Fournet the guy in the playoffs. I mean, it wasn't as if the offense ran through him, but they obviously made him the number one runner, and he executed what he was asked to execute.

I don't think they're going to become a running football team in the sense that the offense will run through Leonard Fournette, but most NFL teams, almost all, they want to run the ball and they want to have success when they run the ball. So the run game matters. The question is for teams, who's the back who's going to get the majority of the carries. It's likely to be Leonard Fournett. Greg, I think the run game matters a little bit more for a guy like Brady when you don't have that second reaction ability. Just keep that pass rush to bay, right?

Yeah, I mean, you know, Bruce Ariens, too, is old school. I mean, he believes that offense should be balanced, which a lot of coaches believe, by the way, that offense should be balanced, that you have to be able to run the ball. Balance is a relative term, so no coach sits here and says, well, we want to run it this many times and throw it this many times. But, you know, they want to be able to run the football. And, you know, when you look at this, as Adam said, they've got too many backs. They're not all making. the team. But I think when you look at this group, particularly with what happens in the playoffs, they're going into this season. Leonard Fournett will be the primary back as a rusher. How did Antonio Brown look to you on film? Greg, I thought he looked great. I was not shocked, but I was a little surprised that he was able to basically step out of bed and get 73% of the targets looked like he was always open. Like maybe he knew only three routes, but he was open. Yeah, I mean, I think

you look fine. This is an offense that obviously spreads it around. It's not one guy. I thought the really intriguing pick was Jalen Darden in the fourth round because I love Jalen Darden's tape. Jalen Darden is very much like Jalen Waddle. They're very similar players in terms of skill set. Waddle's a little more explosive. But, you know, Darden played at North Texas, obviously a lower level school. So the competition wasn't as good. But that's a fascinating pick to me. Boy, if he pans out, now you go seven deep at wide receiver Tampa. And again, they're not all making the team either. So we'll see what happens.

Yeah. And you got 17 tight ends as well. O.J. Howard, Greg, could bring a little bit of a new wrinkle here. Like big plays, even on the outside, that could be a little bit of a shift with O.J. Howard, a full year. Well, yeah, he's coming off an injury. We'll see. They've got tight ends too. I mean, you know, not everybody.

he's making the team here. So this is going to be a little hard right now at the end of May, John, to figure out exactly how this is all going to work out. O-line, all five starters are back, right? How impressed was this O-line? Had a couple rough spots in Pass, bro, particularly against New Orleans, Greg, but, you know, you watched all the tape there. And was it a solid O-line? The O-lines, you know, they got better and better as the season progressed. Brady was comfortable in the pocket for the most part he threw the ball extremely well over the last eight, nine weeks. He was not under meaningful to rest over the last part of the season. This is solid all line.

Well, I don't think we have much. Oh, Mr. Brady, how better did he get down the stretch in your mind, Greg? Because, you know, he did say recently that didn't even really know the offense when the season started last year, which is a little scary. You know, he had knee surgery, you know, he had a pretty, with a bad name. right right well we're we're going to see him on television here in july they just announced he's playing one of those uh made for tv golf events with phil mickleson so he seems all right to be playing in that Greg uh and anything of note good or bad with with tom i guess it's it's kind of

like um i'm brady yeah it's kind of like really really well down the stretch now we didn't have a great game against the packers um but they won the game, you know, so, but overall, he's, he threw the ball really well. I can see some throws in my mind's eye right now from watching all these games, you know, during the season where I just went, wow, that, that's a really big time throw. He's always had a better arm than people think he's had. There's nothing wrong with Tom Brady. I would even, man, I might even take a little step further, Greg.

I know you and I talked about it after the game. I think it was a play where he was moving to his right and he threw a laser across his body. may have been to Evans, it may have been the Godwin, but. Well, he threw a ball against Atlanta to Mike Evans, where Evans got tackled at the one-yard line. I think that's it. I can see this play right now, because I looked at it 100 times. And he just, it was against two-man coverage, okay, which is man coverage with two deep

safeties. And he just grilled this. I mean, this was on a frozen rope. Yep. It was a really, really good throw. There's nothing wrong with Brady. I mean, I thought that throw there, his arm strength looked like he turned. back the clock at like a decade.

And we know what his off-season regimen is, you know. It's just like Adam's off-season regimen, right? I'm done 25 pounds here, brother. Are you really? There you go. Wow. Tennis is saving my life. Go ahead.

Wow. So are you now running a 4-4-40? I could probably get under six. Hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on. I'm not talking about the first 20 yards. Yeah, very funny. Wait, didn't you not tell us on our show or an interview somewhere? Did you not say you run a, what did you run in high school or college?

No, it was my freshman year in college. We got time for baseball. I ran a 4-840. Keep believe it. Looking at him, he ran a 4-8. Can you believe that? You know how much I weighed my freshman year in college? 180.

180. Yeah, see. Which I don't weigh now, by the way. Looking at you, I cannot believe you're an athlete. Unbelievable. Oh, cut the crap. Look at Adam bragging about the weight loss, never mind the fact that he was fat, basically. Thank you very much.

We don't need my, my athletic exploits here. You know, but... You got a sweet jump shot, though. That picture in your office, I got to, I digress, but that, I'll tell you what, that is form right. That's about as sweet as it gets. It is. It is.

All right. I think we're done with Tampa, guys. Anybody have anything else here on? And their defense, you know, for fantasy, John, they're all back. Greg, did you like Joe Tryon, the first round pick? Love Joe Tryon. Yeah, that was a great pick. Love Joe Tryon more than Gregory or so.

I don't even think there's... Oh, wow. I don't even think there's a conversation about that. Tell you what, for fantasy. I know that these fantasy defense, defenses are show up and down. You know, the second half of the season, they play much better. I'll tell you what, I think they'll be very good for fantasy.

Oh, they were my number one defense last year. And I did the projections and plugged in the numbers and they came in at number one. They're all back. Literally, all of them, Sue resign. They're going to get sacks. They're going to get picks. Maybe not a ton of big plays. But they're getting back to a couple guys who were hurt last year.

Yeah, they're going to be good. There's a lot of actually good fantasy defenses this year. that probably all break our hearts. That was a great pick for me because you know, Pierre Paul's getting older. You know, you don't know what he'll be. You know, I mean, I just, I love Joe Trion.

I mean, he didn't play this year, so I watched him last summer and I watched a lot of games because it was a guy I knew nothing about. And I just started watching. Washington always puts out defensive players in the NFL. So they're a defense you always want to watch because they've got a really good defensive coach who's now the head coach, Jimmy Lake.

He does a really, really nice job. and so they're very good schematically and they have a lot of good players. This might be the best depth I've ever seen, honestly, top to bottom. I know. They don't really have. I mean, Greg, you look at the roster. I don't think they have a weakness, do they? Oh, no.

As I'm looking through the roster. Not a corner. Yeah. I mean, Murphy Bunning rebounded really well in the second half of the season. And I've talked with Todd Bowles. He loves big corners and he's got big corners. Davis Davis, Dean and Murphy Bunting are all six feet and over. And Davis and Dean are about six two.

and they're very physical. He likes that. Obviously, they got Levante David and Devin White. I mean, those guys were major factors in their playoff run. Oh, God, yeah. Adam, you know what their biggest problem is? Backup quarterback. That's it.

Well, just as Bill Pullian said, you only need a backup quarterback when you need one. And generally... Well, they got Blaine Gabbard. Yeah, who Bruce loves. And, by the way, Bruce loved Kyle Trask. Yeah. because he fits his worldview of what the quarterback position is.

Yeah. They're all good until they have to play. That's the issue that people find out. But yeah, the kid Stinney played well on the offensive line when he had to fill in, they said. Cap is back from his injury. They're all back, John. This is. They also drafted a kid in Robert Hainesie in the third round from Notre Dame, who I watched.

He played right tackle in college. I think he's a guard personally in the NFL. But the point is, I think he's a solid prospect. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.