Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Week 1 DFS Recap Podcast

Episode Date: September 14, 2021

The recap is back! Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) talks with Jordan Tohline (@JMToWin) of OneWeekSeason (@oneweekseason) to recap Week 1 DFS plays and results. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. What is going on? What is going on one week's season, fam, fantasy points, fam, DFS recap pod, fam. I am your host, J.M to win. I am here with the great Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points. We've had an interesting pre-start to this podcast, complimenting one another's beautiful features,

and realizing that if we could combine the best visual aspects of Scott and the best visual aspects of me, we would have quite the man. But that's also what this podcast is partly about, as Scott pointed out, is combining our knowledge, combining what he's good at, what I'm good at. and powering up to have something even better than we could do on our own. We won't get into the other interesting aspects of the prepot unless you'd like to, Scott, talk about your current health issues, divulge that to the audience. Yeah, we're recording only audio, but we have video up.

And I was telling JM, I have this disgusting abscess on my back. And I offered to show it to him, but he didn't have any interest. If anyone at home is curious and I'd like to see some pictures, hit me up on Twitter. I am, I am, like, brutally bad about bodily stuff, like, blood and gross things. I don't know if anyone knows that, but that's, like, something that I don't handle super well. So, yes, I will avoid all pictures of Scott Body abscesses. and start my week out better in other ways. How you doing, man?

How was the off season? You and I don't really talk during the off season. How was the off season? How was the lead up to the season? I know it's always busy for you, especially around this time of year. You played sort of lower volume week one due to that. But yeah, how is everything in general?

And then how was week one? Yeah, it was sad. We should have talked more this off season. I'm curious to hear how your offseason, went, how much progress you made on your book. My offseason was good. You know, last week was a mess because I had the full DFS slate and I had to finish 96 stats, like one of my biggest articles. And then this week's kind of a mess because at XFP report, I change it up this week where I do this like massive breakdown of where I reevaluate all my priors following week one. You know, that's going to be

the most important, most valuable piece I write for season-long players for the remainder of the season. And so just writing that takes a lot out. Then I have to do the DFS stuff. But week three is typically when I'll settle into a groove. But otherwise I'm doing good. What about you, Jam? Yeah, offseason was we had a new baby girl in January. I think you hit me up after that. I know Graham, I know Graham hit me up after that, and moved in January. So it was kind of, I mean, we just moved like out of the city. But, but yeah, there's a lot going on. Got basically no work done on the book because you've never had a,

unless you have one you don't know about. You've never had a child before. But this first six months, man, they're pretty gnarly. So we timed it. We timed all aspects of what goes into making a baby to ensure the highest likelihood of the baby, not coming during football season, but also not being six months old, six months and younger during football season. So we hit all that just right. We're in a good group now that now that football is underway. And, um, and yeah, had a, had an interesting week one. It was,

you know, we spent the entire week, obviously on OWS. We spent a lot of time focused, less on players. Obviously, we do like a lot of game breakdowns and all that, but less on players and more on strategy. And one of the things that we spent a lot of time talking about week one is look, a good score is not going to cut it in week one. Historically, you need, if you need like 220 points to win a tournament, you probably need 240, 250, 260 in week one. And I had a solid week. I had three out of seven rosters, finished in the money.

I had a fourth roster that bubbled. I was the favorite to win the juke until the fourth quarter of the, when MVS and Camara got benched. had a pretty clear path to first place there. And my best roster scored like 151. So it was, I mean, that's like the most bizarre week one you could conceive of for, like, how often do you see first place rosters at like 170, 180 points? A lot of times, that's not even enough to finish in the money.

So yeah, a bizarre week all the way around, which again, you know, brings back, I think a lot of what you and I will be focusing on this season, that there's an edge in, understanding football better than other people understand football, but that's not the only edge because if it were, you and I and Silva would win all the money every single week. And so, like, understanding how we can combine,

how we can, like, allow our football knowledge to not to be plus EV force instead of negative EV. Because if we overrate our football knowledge, it gets in the way of, like, good game theory and gameplay that gives us our biggest edge. But if we can combine our NFL knowledge with good strategy play, then we're in much better

shape to kind of take on the field week in and week out. So, yeah, interesting week and kind of gives us some stuff to talk about. But I want to sort of guide that into. So just real quick. Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, I think that's why it's so important and valuable. We talk every week and people can hear us talk every week. And specifically having such a DFS style.

our super profitable player in John Proctor come on our show, our big DFS show every week is so valuable. And we said at the start, you know, combining the best aspects of us, you know, the sum of our parts are greater or less than the whole. I think that was the case this week with our DFS show at Johnny because, you know, my guy all off season is Elijah Moore, who I just love.

And Johnny really cautioned me against going all in on the rookies. You know, even T. Higgins, Justin Jefferson broke out last year. But they were both on like 50% of the team snaps in week one. That's a concern. That was a concern with Ron Dale Moore, with Elijah specifically. You know, he had the quad injury. He missed a key portion of preseason practices as well as all of the preseason games. And in that time, Corey Davis really stepped up and became Zach Wilson's guy.

He was targeted like 13 times on like 15 routes run in the preseason. It was crazy. And I almost brought this up to Johnny. I wish I did. I remember he'd DM me several weeks ago where he was like, Debo Samuel's looking like the nuts. And that's because Brandon Ayuk was banged up with an injury. You know, it was looking like week one status might even be in question.

But more importantly, he missed a significant portion of training camp. And he were installing their week one offense. and he knows that's super important for Kyle Shanahan. I didn't even bring it up for this podcast just because Brandon Ayyuk seemed, you know, totally healthy. So I was like, oh, he's going to be fine. And then what happened, you know, Brandon Ayuk was basically Dante Pettis, played 50% of the team snaps.

Debo Samuel lost his mind. And then, you know, we didn't talk about it in the podcast, but Johnny had like 100% exposure on Yahoo. So just like combining the best elements, you know, made some sloppy, plays. I should have known better. Johnny was smart to catch that. Some other plays, you know, just gambling on a guy like Mike Williams, I think pays dividends. We're recording before the Monday night show, but I think Brian Edwards is a similar guy. But Mike Williams, you know, all offseason, there was talk about him getting an expanded role, you know, the ex-roll, the Michael Thomas

role in this Joe Lombardi offense. And then, you know, he's basically even with Keenan Allen in terms of targets and production. And so that's the kind of guy, I think, you want to be betting on week one where, you know, ownership wasn't gravitating towards Williams, but you can say, hey, it's a 50, 50 chance that this report, this is just coach speak BS. But, you know, if it's true, he could pay off in a big way. So those were just some of the key, you know, lessons learned mistakes I made that I want to get out of the way.

Yeah. Yeah, the, you know, one thing, too, that I want to throw on there is no matter how much, no matter how much, like, info you can uncover and find, you're still going to be at a disadvantage, like, trying to get, like, if you try to build a roster and you want it to be like Corey Davis plus Mike Williams plus Debo Samuel, like that, in retrospect, that would have paid off, right? But every week to think that you're going to be able to pick, like, all the spots correctly like that and also pick correctly like that on all nine spots, it's so difficult to do and, like, statistically improbable that, like, for me, I had two shares of Corey Davis. One of them, originally it was going to be Corey Davis plus Elijah Moore plus Zach Wilson on one of my seven rosters to play that as like a 13. 13K block of salary. And if you run through the numbers, right, we're ultimately we're looking for 4K or 4X or higher from our players that we're rostering. So if you're spending 13k in salary, you want to be able to get 52 or more combined points. Now, there's like a lot of nuance that goes into that obviously. But looking at those guys, if you break down kind of the numbers and the

viable scenarios for that game, you could run out that game 100 times and the good like 70, 70 games. those guys are going to get 50 plus combined points. But once Crowder was out and Elijah Moore's ownership started going up so much for me, it immediately became a thing of like, with all the uncertainty of a rookie out there, like don't play him. If he blows up and I don't have him, that's fine. But the edge is in not playing him. And so what I ended up doing was replacing him with Tyler Croft on one roster.

So it ends up being Tyler Croft, Corey Davis, is Zach Wilson. And I am not in any way saying I expect Tyler. other Croft to have a good game. I'm just saying that if everybody's on Elijah Moore and Corey, or I guess on Elijah Moore, like what's the likeliest way for Elijah Moore to fail? It's going to be either the Jets completely bomb. Now, the Jets, this is where we start bringing in our football knowledge, right? We know how bad the Jets' offensive line is. The thinking in that game, the playing guys like Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, is, okay, well, the Panthers, if the Jets can't get it done against the Panthers pass rush, they're not going to get it done against anybody.

Well, apparently they're not going to get it done against anybody this year. They're going to get rocked by the Patriots pass rush this next week. But the thinking was, okay, if they succeed, the likeliest way for Elijah Moore to fail is from Corey Davis and Tyler Croft getting the points. I didn't have a lot of guys to throw to. So take the savings at tight end, throw Tyler Croft into this team stack. And then on another roster play Corey Davis basically just saying, like, I love Corey Davis as well. And, you know, I'm following everything in the offseason. And it probably like, or I should say from like July through kickoff, I'm following everything

and probably like 75% of the level your following things. So I would rate your like very specific NFL and team knowledge higher than mine. But I'm going to be up to speed on most of the stuff you're going to be up to speed on. And so all this stuff with Corey Davis, like there was a high level of confidence in playing him. But 4,900, I think was his price tag. I wasn't like jumping out of my seat to play Corey Davis. But it was like once that Elijah Moore ownership, started going up so much, you know that Corey Davis's ownership is going down.

And so you just say, look, if the field is overrating their certainty on Elijah Moore, I can take advantage of that, not by fading Elijah Moore, but by directly saying who gets the points if Elijah Moore doesn't. So I ended up having that Zach Wilson, Tyler Croft and Corey Davis roster and then pulled Corey Davis onto another roster. So that was kind of how I ended up playing that Jets situation. But I was with you on Elijah Moore before the crowd or news. wanted to be on him more than once Crowder was officially out and the ownership skyrocketed.

But I would have played Elijah Moore in cash games without blinking an eye. I actually had a, speaking of the rookie thing, I had a roster. I had a roster at one point. And you know, on the draft Kings app, they don't have the players pictures up yet for the rookies. So it was just the team logo. And I looked through and realized I had like six spots just had the team logo. It was like the defense spot and then five spots were rookies.

I was like, well, I guess that's not the type of roster I want to roll out there. Like, it looks so good because they're, they all seem underpriced based on like the hype we've built up for them and our expectations for them deeper in the season. And I'll even say on that, like, how many times did Logan Thomas fail last year before he broke out? How many times did Darren disappoint in his breakout year before he broke out? You brought up Justin Jefferson earlier. Iyuk is another one.

Like Iyuck's first game last year, Zandemir, and I were talking about like this is the time to play him. Once once we know what he is, it's too late. He ended up putting up, I think, four, four point two points, his first career game, but he missed those first, what, three or four weeks in the season last year, and nobody was playing him. And so it's like, I'll take those four points at sub one percent ownership, because a week later, he ended up going to like 26 points or something like that. And so sometimes it takes these guys some time to break out, which also speaks to the fact that I think one of the biggest mistakes people can make is overreacting to week one. We have this one game, this one week

sample size, and everybody wants to draw conclusions. Like I was, you know, catching up on all the roto world blurbs today. And there were so many that said, um, basically like, this guy is clearly established himself as the number one target in the offense. This guy, um, this guy is off the fantasy radar now. And it's like, yeah, maybe, but, but maybe not. Like, you know, it's almost as likely, almost as likely that the Falcons come out and put up 28 points against the bucks this next week as that they just get totally trounced. Like we see that all the time. Yeah. Teams come back after like regroup and come back and have a good game. So that's kind of be kind of what I'm looking for this week is where are the places where people are going to be

overrating their certainty based on what happened in in week one. I don't know. Do you see any other spots from week one where people are just going to be overreacting in a huge way? Yeah. So that's exactly right. And due to the effect of anchoring bias, we're going to see people overrate week one for the entirety of the season. So that's important from a season long standpoint and a DFS standpoint where it's like a guy who completely smashed in week one. If he stinks week two, week three, week four, and let's say week five, he does okay. You know, what's going to stick most in your mind is that week one in the most recent game and they're going to overrate that play but I just want to take it back real quick to yeah that was a sharp move moving towards

Corey Davis and Tyler Croft two friends the pod reached out to me with some really sharp takes Neil Ragland who's the best GPP player in our Discord what he usually does is he just takes my core guys and then he'll have one or two an orthodox stack so play a low-owned quarterback with a low-owned pass catcher, a stack to that quarterback. And so his GPP play of the week was James Winston. So if you play him with the tight end, Juan Johnson, who scored two touchdowns, like you're doing great. You know, no one played that combination, whereas Michael Calloway was maybe the highest

own player of the entire slate, and he did nothing for you. Another interesting play like that, just to highlight some really sharp, profitable GPP players and the way they're thinking about things. Cubs fan sent me a text message like 20 minutes before the game starts asking me who San Francisco's RB2 was. And so that, you know, paid off in a big way. We knew hasty was more the special team guy. So, you know, everyone playing Rahim must start, which by the way, I thought was a great play, like post hindsight, you know, most injury prone player in football but didn't expect him to get hurt in his second touch. But yeah, just wanted to give a shout out to both those guys for two pretty sharp takes.

Yeah, and two very, very specific points on this that I think is valuable for everybody to pick up. Like here's one of the, so like you and I were talking last year and you were saying like, I feel like I'm so close on like DFS, but I just have to put the pieces together. And I think that a lot of people who feel that way like they're knocking on the door, but they're just kind of missing the final pieces. One of the things they're missing is like the strategy from, you said, Ragland, is that his name? Okay, so Ragland and Cubs fan, it's not just that they're taking lower owned players, right? Think about this. You mentioned that Calloway was the highest owned player on the slate.

Calloway Pitts and Moster. So the two of the three highest own players being Calloway and Moster. Who gets hurt the most if Joanne Johnson scores two touchdowns? Marquez Calloway rosters. Who gets hurt the most if Elijah Mitchell has a huge game, Rahim Mostert roster? So it's not just like, I call it like the jab and uppercut, right? Like it's like a combo punch. It's not just saying.

oh, this guy's going overlooked. He could have a good game. But if he has a good game, he's destroying rosters that you're directly competing against. So Mostert being 33% owned, there's no way to predict dude gets injured after two carries. And one person asked, you know, we posted a tweet earlier saying, if you have any questions, ask them. And one person asked, you know, with something like the Mostert situation, do you, like, what's the best way to go? Do you move off that guy if the ownership's going to skyrocket? But here's the thing. Like, you're going to have some high-owned plays on your roster because high-owned plays more often than not are going to be good plays, especially the deeper end of the season we get. And if Moser doesn't get hurt,

he's probably getting 26, 27 points in that spot. Like, he wasn't going to get 25 carries, but he's probably putting up a huge game. So it's fine to take it. If you like the play, if you like the play before the news, you can stick with the play and just make sure that you have something different you're doing elsewhere. But the beautiful thing about, like, the Cubs fan question is it's not just who's the random guy who can hit, but who's the random guy who can hit on the team where everybody else is on this other guy? Like who's the guy who, if this guy misses, is the one getting the points because it's so hard to get to first place just getting plays right. You have to have some sort of strategy elements in your roster that directly impacts

other rosters. And I'll give you this example, that this is one of the main ones that I used this last week. So I used a, an Alvin Camara, Marquez Valdez Scantling, Tyree Kill, Kyle Pitts, like four-man pairing. So just those four guys, like it's easy to figure out how MVS and Camara fit together because if MVS is getting points, then they're taking away from Devante Adams points. If Camara's getting points, you're taking away from Callaway points, and you're still betting on this game environment, everybody else is betting on. But how does, do Tyree Kill and Kyle Pitts fit in this roster? Well, the Tyree Kill thing is if I'm betting on Kyle Pitts on that roster, I'm saying, okay, I also think that Calvin Ridley is disappointing

in this spot, right? Like Kyle Pitts, if Kyle Pitts gets me a tournament winning score, he's taking away points from Calvin Ridley. If Marquezvalda Scantling gets me a tournament winning score, he's taking away points from DeBonte Adams. So now I put Tyree Kill on specifically saying I'm betting that these other two high-priced wide receivers disappoint. So I'm going to leverage that bet further by getting Tyree Kill on. And then if Tyree Kill hits for a huge game, I'm also effectively betting that he's taking away points from Kelsey. So now I want the other best tight-in play on the slate in pits.

And so those four pieces go together. And so like thinking about those, and you don't need that across your whole roster. You just need one or two spots where you successfully leverage what everybody else is doing and just say, what if everybody else? gets this wrong. So whether it's like finding a game that nobody else is really on, but that has a high total. And it's like the third game on this third highest total on this late.

And everybody's kind of ignoring it. And you build around that. That's one way to do it. But the other way to do it is like, hey, go to the same games everybody else is on. We'll find a couple places where you just say, like, okay, cool. If you guys are swinging here, I'm going to dodge that. And I'm going to like jab and uppercut you with these other two plays from this game. You know, like if you guys are wrong, I'm not just benefiting from the fact that your rosters

don't get the points you're seeking, but I'm also benefiting from the fact that I'm getting the points from that game that you're not getting. And that's so powerful in tournaments because first place is really all that matters. And if you're not thinking about not only how many points you need for first place, but also how you can outmaneuver the field to first place, it's going to be a lot harder to get those first place finishes. Yeah, I just wanted to give another shout out to John Proctor for just like another excellent play. He was just like, Tyreek Hill is going to be the nuts because A, he's healthy, B, he everyone wants to play the other high price guy.

So he's going to be like 11% owned and that's just always a mistake. And so like the first point I looked at, Tyreek Hill is healthy. And I dug into the numbers. And yeah, so he had that hamstring injury. at the tail end of last season. But if you looked at his six games right before that, he was averaging Devante Adams' like 12.3 targets per game. And then a ridiculous 33 draft king's fantasy points per game.

So the issue with Tyree Kill was always that, you know, he's putting up top five numbers at the position, but he's only on like high-end wide receiver two levels of volume. And then we really started to see him get, you know, high-end wide receiver, one levels of volume. So I said I wrote up like, this isn't even his final form. Just like imagine Tyreek Hill with 13 targets, like just absolutely dominates the slate. That's Jerry Rice levels of fantasy upside.

So like made so much sense there. And then from the ownership play, you know, was coming in underowned. He single-handedly, we've seen it so many times before, has that slate-breaking upsides. side. And he showed it off week one, another great play, another typical Johnny call where he's like, dude, just just play Tyreek. He's the best high-price guy. And like, that was exactly right. My best lineup was a mix-in, Tyreek, Kelsey lineup. But my favorite play, I didn't even write this guy up. And I saw his projected ownership come in at 3%. And it ends up being 3%. I want to hear your opinion on this, JM. I haven't talked to you about it. But I,

I think in even post hindsight, this was one of the best leverage plays you could have made. And that's Clyde Edwards E. Lear at 3% ownership. What were the results? They were really bad. I have a ton of concerns about this guy. I don't think, I think he might be bad. There's a chance he might just be bad at football. We know, like, Mahomes doesn't need to target a running back like McNabb targeted Brian Westbrook

because he's the best quarterback in football. So you don't need short dumpoffs when you can hit Tyreek Hill for 75 yards. But at the same time, it was the highest implied point total of the slate by a margin. No one wanted to play, no one wanted to play this guy. Kareem Hunt had 50 fantasy points in week one, I don't know, with Kansas City four years ago, Pashtra Mahomes first start. And I just thought that was, you know, a guy like that in that offensive environment at 3% owned could have been a slave buster. What are your thoughts on that? I feel like it's time for you to

take a victory lap around that room you're in because that's like a super sharp, like one of the sharpest takes, I think, from this last weekend, and especially to be able to say, and that's no one talked about it and the results were terrible. So I really appreciate that victory laugh comment. And I think that's the hardest thing for people to grasp is the results were terrible. Why are we saying that's a great play you know but three percent owned so look at it like this the question i always asked if he's three percent owned can he help you win a tournament more than three percent of the time and if we play out that game 23 24 25 26 times and he's on the team with the highest Vegas implied team total on the slate and he's southern point favorites or whatever it was six point

favorite. Yeah, yeah, and they were favorite. Like, think about in that game if, and, you know, Darrell Will, Derell Williams really didn't play on third downs. Like, Clyde Edwards Hiller was out there as a workhorse, in a workhorse capacity. And so if you flip the game script there and the chiefs aren't down early, you might end up with a spot where Tyree Kill is getting you seven targets because the chiefs are only having to throw 27, 28 times. And Clyde Edwards Hiller is getting 25 carries and, you know, having this huge game. Also, this goes back to something you said earlier, which is also one of the, you could see me, people listening can't. So I was standing here nodding and smiling when you were talking about people getting like week one results stuck in their head for a long time.

It happens when a guy pops off. It's why we were able to get Josh Allen at like zero ownership weeks 12 through 17 his rookie year was because it was because it was. was the Buffalo Bills playing 1 p.m. games, and we were 10 weeks into the season with the narrative being, oh, my gosh, this guy can't play football. He is an idiot. And he was injured for a few weeks, kind of got his feet back under him. He and Daibold worked on some things. And they came back out with just this on-fire office. I mean, it wasn't nearly as crisp and sharp as it is at this point. And they didn't have the weapons that they have at this point. But Josh Allen put up, what was it, like 48, 50 points against Miami in Week 17 that year and was consistently putting up 35 plus

points at no ownership because everyone's thinking it's fluky. Now, if he'd had that first huge game in a week one or on like a week six Monday night football, then you're going to have weeks, months of everybody trying to roster that guy. And so understanding where public perception comes from is so important. There are players all the time who have a huge game that everybody, either, everybody was rostering that guy that week because of whoever was talking in the industry about sky being in a great spot. And then for the next six, seven, weeks everyone's chasing that score or week one production or primetime production. If you can start understanding where the public perceptions come from, it can help so much.

So Clyde Edwards Hillare was in a primetime game last year in his rookie debut. And it was Thursday night football too, right? So it was the first game of the season against the Texans and had a solid game. And I vividly remember, I guess it was Al Michaels and Chris Collins were talking up Clyde Edwards Hiller that whole game. And he really didn't have that great of a game from an efficiency standpoint. But that sunk in everyone's head so much that everyone keeps treating him like this grand running back. You know, he was picked, what, 30 second overall?

That's the same spot where Sony Michelle was picked. Like, nobody's saying, oh, Sony Michelle has this first round draft pedigree. He's this great back, you know, like, but everybody's still giving Clyde Edwards Hillier the benefit of the doubt. There might be a chance that he's not really that good and everybody's wrong. and two years from now it's going to be, maybe not Trent Richardson level, but Trent Richardson, you know, his rookie year he averaged like 2.9 yards of carry,

3.1 yards of carry, something like that, and scored a bunch of touchdowns. So everybody was treating him like this great back. When the Colts traded for him, everyone was like, oh, man, this guy. And I remember watching games that week, I was running this little free, like free subscription thing with a buddy of mine

that we had like 50 people subscribed. We'd break down the games, like to break down the film for season long. players. And I watched that, his last game was the first game with the Colts when he just failed. Scott's over here dying. Trent Richardson's first game with the Colts when he failed and watching that game, like I totally, watching it closely and critically instead of just assuming I knew what I was watching, I completely changed my perspective on Trent Richardson. And I remember banging the drum that week to our 50 non-paid subscribers saying, this guy's not actually good. Like, watch. This guy's not

going to do well on this team, but everyone was just like, oh, man, this guy's great. He scored all these touchdown. A long tangent to say, maybe Clyde Edwards O'Air isn't good. And even if he's not good, it was still a super sharp play. Just because, like, all the reasons you said, if we played out this slate over and over again, he's going to be the highest score on the Chiefs more than once every 25 times. Like, there's going to be a game script scenario where he ends up scoring three touchdowns, catches three or four passes and breaks a tackle.

And one of them goes for, you know, four catches, 70 yards and a touchdown, and then rushes for 100 yards and a touchdown. And then because it happened on week one with the chiefs, everyone would be riding Clyde Edwards-Helair for the next six or seven weeks, waiting for it to happen again, not realizing that maybe it's a one-in-twenty shot, but if he's going to be 4% owned, yeah, it's a tremendous way to play it. So I actually added him to my player pool on a Saturday update along with Tyree Kill and Travis Kelsey just saying like, or maybe a lot, maybe, maybe Hill was already on there.

And it was, yeah, Hill was already on there. So I added Kelsey and Hardman and Clyde Edwards-Hillera just saying like, consider different ways to play this game because these guys are going to be low-owned. And it's like we saw, we've seen Sammy Watkins put up 40 points. Just in this offense, it's going to happen from time to time. Byron Pringles had a big game before to Marcus Robinson had a couple big games last year. So, yeah, I love that. I love that take.

And I think that's the hardest thing for people like you and me to do in DFS is let go with the fact that we know it's not a great play. It's just a far better play than 3% ownership. And I think the other key thing here, too, that you're hitting on and that other people miss is it can't just be like a 3% own play that can go for 25 points. It's got to be like 25 points isn't going to help you win a tournament on this 3% of. own guy and I think a lot of times people kind of hunt for these low-owned guys. I'll say it like this and then I'll throw it over to you for your thoughts on this. They hunt for these low-owned guys and their thought process is either A, they play things too safe and they're just trying to get a low-owned guy who can get 20 to 25. Well, everybody else is going to get 25 to 30 from the

high-owned guy. So what's the point? And you're going to get those points less often. And then B, when it's somebody like Clyde Edwards-Hillair, they come up with all the reasons why it's not a good play. Well, yeah, that's why he's 3% owned. Because he, He's not a running back who should be 20% owned. He's not a great play because he's a great play in a vacuum. He's a great play because he's way better than a 3% owned play. And so they find some other guy that they come up with and they come up with the reasons why it's going to be a good play. But all we're looking to say is like let's simplify it and find a couple of these pieces that.

And really the main reason I didn't pull the trigger was just because Kelsey and Hill weren't going to be super highly owned. If they were both going to be 30% owned, then it would have been like auto play Clyde Edward Tiller on at least one or two rosters. And so, yeah, man, I think that's one of the sharpest takes from the week. And that's one of the few plays that I was able to spot that it was like in retrospect, even, that it was like, okay, here's somebody who could have had a monster game and that nobody was on. And, yeah, we just got to keep looking for spots like that, obviously, in weeks ahead.

Yeah. So I just want to say, this is why I love you. And this is why I love doing the show because who else is going to tell me to run a victory lap and a guy who's barely scored 10 fantasy points. But that's exactly how everyone's rosters, anybody who played them. Right. But that's exactly how you should be looking at it. Be process oriented, not results oriented.

So I'm going to get back to how week two is unique. Yeah, definitely don't overreact to week one. You know, it's a one game sample size. We're going to talk all season about how a small sample size really skews things, how highly, high variance DFS, especially football DFS is, everything is a small sample, like five weeks is infinitesimally small. So week one, extremely so. Who knows what happened with Marquez Callaway?

You know, I need to watch that game, but, you know, was he bracketed? Was blah, blah, blah. And so typically in any given week two, I feel like there's a major edge in just and basically just playing all of the guys who are highly owned in week one and did not do great. But at the same time, I also want to say, don't underreact to week one. Maybe underreact to the results of week one. But there's a lot of signal that's not noise that you need. to dive into, like a guy I'm going to love for week two is Tyler Higbee. Remember what happened without Gerald Everett? The only four games he's missed across his career, Tyler Higby led the league

in receiving yards. He saw a massive jump in usage. And last year, you know, it was a committee. So he was capped at like 53% of the routes. But what happened last week, he led the position in route share. So I am very optimistic on his potential. It's looking like, you know, his usage is just going to double. So looking at things like that, you know, Mixon's usage that, first of all, it confirms all my priors, but it's not noise. That's something to look at. And you could do that for a million players. So don't underreact to that, but do underreact to the results. Yeah. There's a tendency see if the field is like, okay, so Mixon, Mixon's role looks so good that there's a tendency to be like, oh, I'm going to be sharp by underreacting to that.

Everybody else is going to overreact, so I'm going to underreact it. Like, Nixon's not guaranteed to have a huge game every time that he gets 22 plus touches, but it's just understanding who the player is. I remember, I think you and I have talked about this, but 2000, whatever that was, 2015, was that OBJ's rookie year, Mike Evans rookie year? year, whichever year that was, I think it was 2000, 2015 was their rookie year. It was 2014. 2014, okay.

Odell Beckham, once he was up to like, same thing with Mike Evans, once he were up to 5,400, 5,500 on draft kings, people didn't want to pay for them anymore. Think about that. While Odell Beckham is back down at that price again right now, but people didn't want to pay for those guys because they were too expensive. And they're coming in at 20% only. ownership at 5500 and people think they're being sharp by saying, oh, everyone's overreacting to this guy. But within another month, both those guys are over 7,500. So understanding who a

player is and what a player's situation is allows you to find places. Again, you're going to have some higher owned players on your rosters. You have to. You're probably not going to win with a roster that has cumulative ownership of 15 percent because those probably aren't like nine roster spots worth of guys who are all going overlooked. that you're going to get all of them right. Like, you're going to have some guys who are, like, I ate Kyle Pitts chalk on four of my seven rosters, right? Like, that's fine.

You're going to have some plays that you say, okay, this is the place I'm going to go with ownership and bet that everybody's right on this guy. So there's an element of piecing things together where you don't have to be different in every spot. So if you find a place where you feel like a player is still underpriced and they're going to be highly owned and you're comfortable, you know, always describe for you up the range of outcomes. Understand, okay, what looks like a failure game for this guy and how would that happen? So that if it does happen, you're not super shocked. But if there's a guy who you feel

he's still underpriced, play it. Like, that's totally fine. We also had a question that said, talk about process over results as it pertains to the first two weeks of the season. And the note that I made was the same thing we talked about with week one, don't overreact. So basically everything we're talking about here is don't overreact to your results like, like, like, Scott said, one game is such a small sample size. That's one of the tough things about NFL DFS. There's obviously benefit to also looping in showdown play and the in-game drafts on draft kings and the weekly drafts on underdog. Like, keep giving yourself a lot of different opportunities for your edge to play out instead of just main slate every week, which I think

you and I more so than people listening are kind of locked into playing mainslate because we're so busy throughout the week. But the more you can say, okay, going to play the two game like Monday to Thursday slate or I'm going to play the early slate. I'm to play the late slate. I'm going to play showdowns. You can start seeing your edge play out because in those true daily sports like NBA and MLB, you get such a larger sample size for things to play out. And it's hard if you go a full week and if you lost, you end up playing things too safe the next week because you're like, oh, I don't want to lose again. And so yeah, it can be a quick spiral in NFL if you start overrating each one week too much. You have anything.

to add to that? No, I think that's smart. Okay, so is there anything that you are, I guess, from either, have you looked ahead to week two at all yet? Not really. I'm still, you know, in the process of looking back over week one to see if I missed something or, hey, wow, this guy saw a massively expanded role. You know, maybe I need to reevaluate my initial analysis on him. So I'm kind of still in the process of going back over week one. Have you found anything else interesting from week one that kind of stands out to you from a usage perspective? Because that's the key, right? It's like, who cares about, I don't care about Tyler Lockett having a huge game and me not being on him.

I mean, I was playing in contests of under 10,000 entries. So it stood out to me that in our GPP ceiling tool, Tyler Lockett, like, his 80th percentile score was much higher than most guys priced around him and was especially high for a guy at his price and his low ownership. So he stood out to me and if I had been playing like the slant with 50K entries in it that you have to beat or the milly maker with 200,000 entries you have to beat. Yeah, I would have been likely to gravitate toward Tyler Lockett there. But Tyler Lockett had whatever it was, five targets, six targets, something like that. Russell Wilson through 23 times.

Like, I'm not concerned about missing out on that game because the line is so thin between that being a total dud and being a blowup. But the games where people, like you talking about Clyde Edwards-Hilaire's game environment and usage, who cares that he failed? Like, that matters more to us than somebody who got super low volume and happened to pop off. Did you see any other spots where usage and kind of team approach stood out to you on anybody?

Yeah, I mean, I have a bunch of different takeaways from. my article. I still have to spend the rest of tonight looking at running backs. That's going to be the big thing just because of how important snap share is. Is this guy a bell cow? Was he also heavily involved in the passing game? Like, you know, Detroit's running backs? Like, my goodness, D'Andre Swift only played on like 63% of the team snaps, but he ranked third in total snaps just because the pace was out of control in that game. And, you know, maybe, that's going to be consistent throughout the whole season. Anthony Lynn's Chargers led the league in plays per game last year. He led the week in plays per game in week one. Both running backs were

heavily involved in the passing game. He ranked first and second in in targets at the running back position. Indianapolis is another one. You know, Jonathan Taylor looks to me like Aaron Jones, basically, where he's a committee back. He's inexplicably capped at 60% of the team's snaps, which isn't great, but because he's still going to get those targets, he should still be treated as an RB1 for fantasy. Some other notes, also looking into tight ends, massive jumps and Rout share. I talked about Tyler Higby. Antonio Brown and Grancowski and Tom Brady look like the 2017 versions of themselves. You know, DAC picked up right where he left off. Jalen Hertz looks as good as I wanted him to be. Deonté Johnson,

how hilarious is this, you know, for the fifth time in, was it now, 15 games, he spent time in the medical tent with an injury suffered in the first quarter, just absolutely unreal. The bad keeps happening. You know, a lot of people talked about the Adam-feelan touchdown regression narrative, which never made sense for a guy who led the league and end zone targets last year, two touchdowns. I mean, Jamar Chase, could he be the wide receiver one in this team? I think the odds are pretty decent. T.J. Hawkinson, another tight end who saw a massive jump in Rout share. You know, some confirmation bias on Brandon Cooks. So, I mean, there's just a million different things we could talk about. Kyler Murray, too. My goodness, he could win the MVP this year.

It wouldn't shock me at all. He could outscore 2019, Lamar Jackson. It wouldn't shock me at all. that actually brings us over to two other questions we've got one of which is for me and the other of which i'm going to throw over to you so when i every week on on oWS i lay out my what i call my player grid which is basically my player pool and it's the players and games that i'm building around and so this is a question for you but it's also a question for me because i did the same thing no it's okay well then is this the kailer murray current kylemurray question for you but yeah So I had Kyler, he was the only quarterback I had listed as a blue chip, and he didn't make it on any of my seven rosters. So the quarterbacks I ended up with were Hertz, who obviously, for me, blue chip means like super low likelihood of failure as well.

I had Hertz listed as a light blue chip because his ceiling is the same in terms of like point per dollar production, but his chances of failing are a little bit higher than somebody like Kyler Murray. So I ended up with Ryan Tanehale building around that game. Zach Wilson, as I kind of described earlier, the Jalen Hertz rosters. And there was one other place I went. Maybe it was a Mahomes roster. Anyhow. And so the way I build is I have kind of like my pods of player blocks, team stacks, like different things I'm wanting to do.

I'm not like trying to put nine guys on a roster at a time. I've got like, okay, here's the five quarterbacks I'm considering. Here's the different ways I'm considering them. So like Tana Hill plus Julio, Tana Hill plus A.J. Brown. What wide receiver do I want from the other side of this game, if any wide receiver at all? So it's kind of like I might have four or five different options for ways to play a Tana Hill roster. I might have, you know, a few different ways to play a Hertz roster and so on and so. Just to do a quick time out.

One thing I thought was super interesting, and we talked about this a lot last year, was how weird Ryan Tannahill's correlations were. Like he was positively correlated with Derek Henry, but no one's ever going to play them together, even though there was a moderately high correlation. But when Tannihill really goes off, Corey Davis really went off. But A.J. Brown didn't really. And so I thought an interesting way to play that game was to play Kyler and stack him with A.J. Brown. Play Tannahill and stack him with Julio Jones.

obviously that didn't work out. And then Derek Henry, by the way, I looked back at over his last 13 games with an over under of 50 points or higher. And when Tennessee wins, he scores like 35 fantasy points per game. When Tennessee loses, he scores nine fantasy points per game. So the huge thing with him, way more than the over under was always going to be the spread, which was actually fairly close. So yeah, never. cash play. But I mean, even though the results were horrible, if Tennessee won that game, you could see him dropping 30 plus fantasy points and breaking the slate. Yeah, 100%. And you mentioned Kyler with, like I said, Kyler with one of his wideouts, or even Kyler with one of his

wideouts, but Kyler plus A.J. Brown, and I think that's a super sharp way to play that. And so as I was building, you know, I've got all these Tana Hill ways I can build it. It's, you know, three players in this little block or four players in this little block. And so my Tyler rosters, I wasn't really looking to pair Kyler with one of his wideouts. And so I was looking for ways to do Kyler plus a Tennessee pass game piece. And so it was just kind of floating around in my options. But for me, it's like I don't want to get married to one idea. Like, yeah, I felt Kyler was the best individual quarterback play.

If I was playing cash, I would have locked him onto my roster. Or, you know, depending on how salary worked out, because I definitely would have wanted Christian McCaffrey as well. Maybe I go down to Hertz there and say, okay, like, I think that I can, you know, get the same sort of point for dollar ceiling and then hopefully I don't have one of the hurts you know bad hurts games but um but in tournaments I'm not just taking a blue chip player and saying okay this guy's going on my roster I still want to say how does this guy fit onto my roster so that's that's just kind of an answer for me of what happened with Kyler and then also sort of some

insight into how I pull these rosters together because it's not like I don't I build like in my notes so for me it's like okay I've got all these different ways that I can play this roster or play these rosters then I'll start piecing things together The question I wanted to throw over to you was how matchup analysis can be so wrong sometimes. Example of the Niners were lights out versus tight ends but got smoked versus Hawkinson. Should we chalk up to just any given Sunday or last year's analysis being outdated? My thought here is just like I'm always thinking what happens most often if we play out this slate 100 times. I'm not certain that Hawkinson has a huge game, you know, 20, 30 times if we keep playing out that game over and over again.

but I was very interested, especially given how sharp you are on kind of getting into understanding how the productions created and whether it was likely or not. Have you had a chance to dive into that one yet? Would it just be like a Hawkinson role thing or any concern about the 49th defense? Yeah, I need to look into that one, into more detail. I think that the guy they had covering tight ends of the last few years isn't, isn't still there. Drake Greenlaw, I believe, had the most coverage snaps lined up against Hawkinson. Also, Hawkinson had a massively expanded role, and I believe more slot usage as well.

But yeah, I mean, that's definitely something early on in the season where, I mean, you could look at fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers last year, but the Vikings have three entirely new cornerbacks. So you kind of have to throw out everything from last season with them. And there's a lot of teams like that. Did they draft a cornerback in round one? Did they add, you know, a savvy veteran? So there's just going to be a lot of noise in that stuff, which is why really for me in week one, I gravitated towards a ton of the guys who, okay, this guy ranks as my wide receiver 36, but by salary, he's wide receiver 59. So I'm going to play the half. out of him. And so that's that's really what I look for. And then week two, again, it's,

it's kind of, you know, not overreacting to week one. So if one of those guys flopped, why not, why not go back to the well on Calloway, who isn't going to have any ownership? Yeah, and he's going to be playing the Panthers this week. If the Panthers, not that the Panthers can keep pace, but if the Panthers are able to keep pace, Calaway could come out and get seven, eight targets. That wouldn't surprise me at all. We saw in the preseason, his usage didn't indicate that we were going to have a two-target game off the bat,

but also James threw the ball 20 times, I think it was. And all the starters were on the bench by like two minutes into the fourth quarter. So wacky game script, if things go a different way and the Packers jump out to a big lead, we could have had 11 Calloway targets and everyone's patting themselves on the back

about rostering Calloway at his high ownership. So yeah, it's understanding too, the game environment that produced the results. Speaking of not overreacting to one week, I'm going to throw some players at you and get your thoughts. And I'll also throw in just in case you want their matchup for next week. Najee Harris, obviously we know that the Steelers' offensive line is bad. The Steelers' offensive line had, I guess they were good.

They had really good run blocking pieces in most of the Levion Bell years. but a lot of the value for Levion came from his past catching role. I remember last year in his first game with Matt Ruhl as the coach, Christian McAfrey, Matt Ruhl and Teddy Bridgewater, Christian McAfree's receiving role was way down. And it was, I think he had like four targets in week one last year. And it was easy to overreact to that. Like, hey, maybe his role is not the same.

Najee Harris, do you think this is like, do you think he's, you know, what is it, fools gold? Do you think he's fantasy fools gold, Or do you think that he can get back on track in a game against the Raiders in this, you know, Ben Rafflesberger pass a bunch type of offense? No, I think he's going to be great. And he did have that one end zone target that was just a little overthrown, but he was wide open.

So if he scored that, that's going to be an extra like eight fantasy points, make his day look a lot better. But he played 100% of the snaps. Like how often does a running back playing 100% of the snaps fly? Yeah. And so, you know, James Robinson last year had a bottom three offensive line. He had bottom one game script and he was great for fantasy. And that's what you're looking at with Najee Harris. Not worried about the offensive line, not too worried about game script because passing game involvement can cause you to overcome that more than offset those potential liabilities. And with

Najee Harris, yeah. So the only thing you have to worry about really is like what happened with Ezekiel Elliott in week one where Dallas smartly just totally abandoned the run against a top one run defense. And Ezekiel Elliott, the value he brought to the team, the best way for them to deploy him was as a pass blocker. So he played 82% of the team snaps. That's great. That usually smashes for fantasy. But it was a lot of empty snaps. So it, kind of didn't. So you'll have those weird fluctuations. But on the season long level, snaps correlate better to fantasy points than touches. Like that's crazy to me, where you're almost guaranteed to score points in a touch, but you can have these empty snaps.

But really, that's what you want to look at. And to me, he's a game script proof belkow. I'd like to see a little bit more targets than the targets he got last week. But yeah, I'm not too worried about it. Speaking of game script proof bell cows, we kind of touched on this already, but any additional thoughts on Joe Mixen and his role in this Bingles offense. I mean, honestly, I think people were overreacting, obviously, to the burrow and chase stuff throughout the offseason. And this is a team that was consistently capable last year of playing games close. They just couldn't win them. We had another one of those yesterday, and they just managed to win it.

But yeah, Mixon, Mixon's playing the Bears this next week. It's not the greatest matchup. But do you see that role being pretty secure this year compared to what we had last year? Yeah, absolutely. So I had Mixon as my RB6 tied with Antonio Gibson in season-long PPR leagues. So I was dangerously high on him.

I think consensus was like RB12, RB13. So massively high and just completely reassured. I mean, 33 touches. That never happens. Then Antonio Gibson, too, 20 carries five targets that happens about 1.5 times per week in any given season. It's just like really rare levels of volume for two really good running back. So, yeah, should be, should continue to be game script proof and should continue to smash for fantasy.

This is a guy who was comp to Matt Forte coming out. if you look at PFF's best ever yards per route run seasons by a running back it's like Christian McCaffrey one Christian McCaffrey two Alvin Camara three and then Joe Mixon six and 14 he's been underutilized as a pass catcher at the NFL level but I think he still has that talent and I think he should smash for fantasy man I miss Matt Forte he was so smooth to watch he was awesome he was awesome um yeah mixing it's funny you bring up Gibson In bestball drafts this year, if I got to pick 15 or wherever, like Jonathan Taylor and Antonio Gibson and Mixon were all there, and Mixon's average draft position was like 20.

And those guys were, well, Gibson started moving up closer to the first round, but those guys were like 13 to 15. I was taking Mixon over those guys. I will say that I was not buying the coach speak on Gibson's role. and I will be willing to eat the loss on that one because I think that's pretty much here to say like you said it's 1.5 this is why I love doing this pod with you because you've got the numbers like in hand the like 1.5 times per week on average that we see usage like that is that what you said yep and so that's obviously we're not going to have every week 25 opportunities but what we see is that there are certain running backs who There are certain running, like individual running backs who the, they might get a 25 opportunity game. Clyde Edwards-Hillair is a good example. He might have one and he overreact to it and he doesn't have another one in his next 20 games. But it seems very much like Gibson is primed to be one of the few backs in this type of role.

J.D. McKissick had one opportunity, just a very different setup than last year. If that team can ever get a quarterback, they are going to be relatively dangerous. They have so many good pieces in other spots. Anything else to add on the Antonio Gibson thing? No, I mean, I think he might be the only one that benefits from Ryan Fitzpatrick's injury, or at least he is the least negatively impacted. I think we'll see from them what we saw last year and what we saw with week one after he went down. And that's that.

They're going to go slow pace. They're going to go run heavy. They're going to try and beat teams with their defense, which is just unfortunate. because I loved McLaurin. I loved Logan Thomas. And yeah, you know, big, big drop off from, you know, a gunslinger in Ryan Fitzpatrick to Taylor Heinecke. Yeah, that team, that team between Dan Snyder being their owner and the way things go on the field, they don't seem to be able to buy a break the last several years. Okay, Falcons offense. Any thoughts on Kyle Pitts? Any thoughts on, I mean, that wasn't the most difficult defensive matchup that they're going to have this year. Do you have any concerns there? Or, you know, I'll throw this in, obviously. Kyle Pitts, I think he played like, what was it, 31 snaps from the slot and 14 snaps out wide. Like you're basically saying he's a really, really talented wide receiver. one B who's being priced like a cheap tight end. So for me, no concerns there, but that offense itself didn't look, it looked discombobulated.

And after that, I want to move over to Arthur Smith's old offense in the Titans. But any take on the Falcons before we move on to the Titans? Yeah, I think that's a great offense to target in week two. I mean, they looked like one of the worst offenses in football in week one, one of the worst offensive lines. That's all obviously a major concern. But I mean, Calvin Ridley was being drafted as a borderline first round pick. And, you know, he had a brutal game, five catches, 51 yards.

Could be another pass-heavy shootout in week two against Tampa Bay. I mean, it should be at least pass-heavy, if not a close game, maybe plenty of garbage time. But yeah, Kyle Pitts, his role was great. He ran around on 80% of Matt Ryan's dropbacks. He had eight targets. He actually had two targets called back due to penalties. So a 10 target game, that's phenomenal volume for a rookie tight end. And this was the guy, my first take of the offseason was Kyle Pitts is a lock to be in the Hall of Fame.

This is a rare talent. This is a wide receiver one masquerading as a tight end. And that's aces for fantasy football. So I really love those guys. And we talked about, you know, shock that flopped in week one, play them in week two. That would be Kyle Pitts. That would be Calvin Ridley. Yeah, I brought up Logan Thomas and Darren Waller earlier.

But like, think about what we're paying for Darren Waller now. And there's a time when you could get them for $2,800. And because we hadn't seen a price tag higher than that yet, people still weren't sure, do I pay for this, do I play this guy or not? So being able to see ahead to at least say, it's like what I was saying with Deonti Johnson last year. Like, who knows if he's going to have a huge game this particular week. But by the end of this season, he's going to be priced at $6,500 or higher, and you're able to get him under $4,500 now. So just if you can understand, like, we're talking about how small one game sample size is.

So if you can say, okay, but if we stretch this out over the next eight weeks, nine weeks, what is this guy's price tag going to be like in eight or nine weeks? I said that last week with Mixin and Naji Harris, too, was, you know, these three down backs that are priced at 63, 6,400, 6200, whatever they were. And people think, oh, do I play this guy? Do I not play this guy? Antonio Gibson at 5,900. If you can say, well, given this guy's role, he's just almost certain to be priced higher than this a few weeks from now, then you can just take those savings. The Titans, I didn't get to watch, I'm tonight and tomorrow, I'm catching up on a bunch of watching of these guys.

games. So I maybe watched 15 plays from the Titans. And every play that I watched was like a straight dropback offense. There wasn't like the outside outside zone action to the left and Tannahill booting to the right that worked so well for that offense in the past. It was like just watching it. It was like, wait, why did I, why are three of my seven Tana Hill rosters, why are three of my seven rosters being led by Tanahill if this is the offense that they're running. Have you gotten to watch any of that game yet or dig into anything from that game yet? Do you have any concerns about that offense or is that just also an easy place to overreact? You know, to say, oh, well, head coach left and or offensive coordinator left and now it's, you know, old Tana Hill again and don't play the

Titans anymore. What are your thoughts there? Yeah, if you look at Ryan Tannahill's last 24 starts versus Patrick Mahomes's last 24 starts, Tanaill has been the better quarterback. And by fantasy points per game, it's only like a slight edge to Patrick Mahomes. My big concern was always, hey, maybe, you know, Ryan Tannahill isn't just the next Patrick Mahomes. Maybe Arthur Smith was the catalyst behind their recent offensive success. I mean, that's kind of tougher to argue in the sense that Atlanta looked god awful. But by the same token, you know, Tennessee looked really bad. And you pointed out lack of play action.

I think someone else on Twitter said play action declined significantly. And it just looked ugly. That was a big concern for me with Derek Henry because they overachieve last season by a number of different metrics, you know, unsustainable turnover rate, unsustainable conversions of pressure into sacks, things like that. And Vegas expected them to win, I think, two fewer games this year. Remember, it's a 17 game schedule. And so if you just take that as it is, Derek Henry would have dropped from like the RB3 to the RB 13 because he's so game script

sensitive. And he's, you know, two wins below that. He's, you know, a mid-range RB2. Yeah, I mean, it's, it's all, it's all very concerning. And yeah, last, last week was rough or week one was rough. And they're playing Seattle this week. Seattle obviously got to play against Carson Wentz. And he didn't get a lot of practice time with his wide receivers. But Seattle's defense had a really nice showing in week one. So it's interesting. Speaking of overrating stuff from early in the season, you know, it's easy to overrate how bad Seattle's defense was last year because they did get significantly better down the stretch. But they were so bad during the first half of the season. season that it's easy to be like, oh, well, attack the Seattle defense. But yeah, that's definitely an interesting spot that I'm going to be thinking about a lot this week because if you have a Titans team that can still put up, I mean, I was flipping through when I was kind of deciding, like, where my final rosters were going and taking these Tannahill blocks and being like, okay, I'm going to use this on two or three rosters.

I was flipping through their game logs last year, and there's so many games of like 42 points scored 36 points scored 42 points scored 31 points scored right like this team can put up huge points and we know that with russell wilson and the downfield threats that locket and metcalf are that seattle can score in a hurry we know how bad the tennessee defenses so that's one of those games that i could just as easily see it being 42 to 35 as being 23 to 16 because if the if the Titans are getting shut down, the Seahawks are going to be content to just play Pete Carroll ball and secure the win. And so, yeah, that's a very interesting one for me.

I'm interested to kind of dive into those two games from this last week and just see if there's anything that we can take while not overreacting to them, but saying, hey, look, like, and I'll say it like this. If we're talking about tournaments, it's not even about saying, oh, play players from this game or don't play players from this game, but more being able to say, how likely is it that players from Seattle, Tennessee, off off, how likely is it that they disappoint? And so I just kind of want to get a better sense of what the range is there and how much uncertainty there is. Because if this were week four of 2020, and you had Seattle, Tennessee, that's the game of the week. That's everybody stacking Seattle, Tennessee. It's going to have an over under of 56, 57, right? Like an unheard of over under because

Seattle was shooting out every week. We know how bad Tennessee's defense is. Tennessee can put a points so easily. And so I feel like we could see people overreacting to week one, but at the same time, there might be some things, some things, there might be some things from those week one performances that put up some red flags and lead to us saying, yeah, this would have been the game of the week in week four or five last year. And yeah, the personnel really hasn't changed that much on either team, but it's not the game of the week anymore. Like too much has changed on the sidelines, on the field, so on and so forth, then maybe that's not where we want to go. That's going to be a very interesting one for me.

That's what I have, man. Do you have anything else that we want to talk about before we get out of here? No, I'm a little behind right now anyway, so we should probably wrap this up. You're a little behind because the abscess on your behind is... That wasn't even a very funny joke. I appreciate you laughing or chuckling at it because that was a failure. Man, it is so fun to be back here. A bummer that Graham can't be on.

We never even said. Oh, we forgot to bring that up. We just moved forward. You want to just pretend he's like part of the show? He's just like, just bashful. Didn't let him talk. You should catch it, like get a recording of him, like talking for 30 seconds and we'll just play it every week. Get his ghost on here.

Graham couldn't do Mondays and we wanted to make sure that this was still going out on Tuesday mornings, given that we're talking about the week behind us. So, yeah, maybe he'll be able to hop on as a guest at some point later in the week and we'll give them a hard time. Yeah, we might do guess. We might bring guests on. I would love that. I would love that. Cool, man. Well, we will be back next week.

Thanks for hanging out with us. Be sure to check out. I always forget to say anything about our respective sites until the end when people have already probably turned off the podcast. but be sure to check out fantasy points.com, check out one weekseason.com. One week season also has a podcast feed. Search one week season. These podcasts can be found on the Fantasy Points podcast feed, which is probably where you're listening to this. So for Scott, for myself, thanks for hanging out. We will see you next week and we will see you at the top of the leaderboards in the week. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate and review on your favorite platform and come join the roster at fantasy points.com.