Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Week 1 Opening Line Report

Episode Date: May 13, 2021

The season is on the horizon after the release of the NFL schedule on May 12. Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) and Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley) are back to break down the initial betting lines for all 16 games in Week 1 before giving out a couple of Best Bets on the Rookie of the Year honors at the end of the podcast (37:00). --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle. From numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. It's been a little bit of time since I've been here with Tom Broley talking fantasy football, talking NFL football, talking betting. All of it's intertwined here on the Fantasy Points podcast. My name is Joe Dullin. Of course, he is Tom Brawley. Tom, not only do we have the rookies assigned the teams.

We have an NFL schedule out. And given that there's an NFL schedule out, we know what the matchups are going to be in week one. You've got now teams that we have a reasonable idea of what the teams are going to look like. There might still be some offseason moves, certainly with the Aaron Rogers situation and who knows what's going on with Deshaun Watson. But we have a reasonable idea of what these teams are going to look like. So look, the sports books, football's their big moneymaker. They want to get lines out there. So on May 13th, four months away from the start of the NFL season, Tom, we have a week

one opening line report. And it is, it's going to be fun here on the Fantasy Points podcast. It's glorious. I love that it's back. I mean, the season win totals have been, you know, out since, you know, towards the end, the free agency whenever it started to slow down. And now, now there's just been jockeying here. up on the site, I've done, you know, different looks at, you know, how the odds have changed since the draft, since teams have kind of finalized their rosters.

There's going to be still a little bit of movement here this summer. You know, we saw Eric Fisher sign with the Colts and Charles Leno with the football team there. So let that one slip. I haven't been on the podcast here for, you know, six weeks or so. So, yeah, there's still going to be some jobs. hockey in here. But, you know, these teams are kind of locked into what they're going to look like. Starting September 1st, obviously, we'll probably have some injuries. We're getting the preseason action back this year. You know, I like it because we get some looks at some guys that, you know, we haven't had eyes on, you know, like rookies and second year players. But, you know, that also brings in, you know, the potential for some injuries. So, you know, there's going to be. some movement still, but for the most part, these are what the lines are going to look like in

terms of Super Bowl odds, win totals, and, you know, these books feel confident enough to put out some opening lines for those week one games. So, Tom, you've got an opening line report written up at FantasyPoints.com. You have Team Power ratings written up at FantasyPoints.com. And what we want right now, quite frankly, I'm not going to lie to you, we want eyeballs on the website. Those articles are free to read at FantasyPoint.com. also have just an absolute unbelievable amount of dynasty rankings that Wes Huber was in a in a bunker for two weeks putting together. He just put them up on the website. Dynasty top 100 super flex rookie rankings.

Dynasty top 100 tight end premium super flex rookie rankings. A dynasty top 250 tight end premium super flex rankings including the veterans and then the dynasty top 250. super flex rankings. Oh, on top of that, he's got chop 250 PPR rankings. So it's unbelievable. Just what Wes has done. And we also have. It's that time of year, Joe. I mean, we and you are, you know, with Scott and Graham in a dynasty league. This is kind of when it starts heating up. We started sending out the rookie draft for our, you know, our big fantasy points league that we started last week. So we know a lot of people are, you know, very excited about dynasty stuff right now. And yeah, and we also have, by the way, the first run of the fantasy points projections

for the 2021 season. So make sure you go to fantasy points.com. Those are behind the paywall, but we do have the code, Tom. If you just missed out and you're like, well, you know what, I better, I better get in, I better get in on the ground floor. And I better, I just better subscribe to fantasy points.com. I'm so upset that I missed the early bird. Well, Tom, we got a code. Early bird missed 21 gives you 10% off. So you can get an extra 10% off on the code as well.

So much content up at fantasy points.com. We got some interesting contributors coming down the line as well. So that was my hard sell. Tom, let's get into the week one opening line report here, which I'm excited to talk about. And we have a really interesting matchup kicking off the 2021 season on that traditional Thursday night game where the Super Bowl champion hosts a visiting team. They always go for a juicy matchup.

And it's Dallas against Tampa Bay. Dallas on the road is getting six and a half points. Obviously, you would think there's still some uncertainty with Dak Prescott's rehab built into that line. Yeah, I don't know, though. I mean, I have it, you know, I think it should be a, you know, up over seven maybe, you know, if Dack is completely healthy. I think the NFL got some assurances from the Cowboys here over the last month or so that Dac is ready to go and they want to put him

on prime time. Because, you know, that was a devastating injury to watch. That was, that was heartbreaking. I know you're not a, you're an Eagles fan, Joe, but, you know, that was still heartbreaking. It was ugly. You don't want to see that happen to anybody. So, you know, obviously that's a great story. if he's, you know, doing well in his rehab, going to be ready for week one. And I think the NFL, you know, they got some assurances that he's good. So, you know, that makes me almost feel better about drafted him a little bit in the fifth-sixth round. You know, the NFL just wouldn't put that game in there to have Dak standing on the sideline and Tampa Bay to win by two or three touchdowns in that game.

So, you know, just, you know, but first look at it, you know, I think Dallas will probably get a little bit of money later in the summer here. once it's definitely out there that he's going to be ready for week one. But it's kind of settled in at that six and a half number. I think that's pretty fair. I have maybe a little touch higher. And, you know, the Cowboys have been pretty miserable in these prime time games over the last, you know, five or ten years. But I'm laden towards the Buccaneers side in that first game,

but not exactly rushing to the window in that one. Yeah. So, right, right. And Dallas is a public team. Dak Prescott's getting the hype, you know, coming into the season. If you favor the Buccaneers, you're probably going to be better suited to wait here, presuming you think that's actually going to play in this game. Yeah, but, I mean, you know, you look back to the postseason last year,

and, you know, obviously Tom Brady has an excellent track record against the spread of during his time in New England. So, you know, I figure, you know, I think it's going to be a little bit more on the Cowboys side, you know, especially getting six and a half points. But, you know, there's going to be some Buccaneers. money as well. They treated betters, including myself, very well at the end of the last season and into the postseason. So they'll surely have a little bit of support. And they bring back their entire team, too. I'm going to throw out a little bit of a take here, Tom, as Arizona visits Tennessee,

Tennessee laying two and a half at home. If you like the Cardinals, bet them now would be my, would be my thought here, because I feel like getting the two and a half at this point, it's going to be closer to that when this game kicks off in week one. Yeah, I agree. I think it's probably going to, you know, close a little closer to pick them. I don't know if it gets all the way down there, but, you know, it's kind of like two teams moving in the opposite direction this offseason. You know, the Cardinals continued to add around, you know, Kyler Murray getting

Rondale Moore in the slot. Rodney Hudson at center was a huge ad for them. And that was, you know, these shorter quarterbacks, they need that interior protection for, you know, he needs to have, you know, space to throw and, you know, vision down the, you know, in the middle of the field there. So, you know, protecting the middle of the field is in the interior, the offensive line there is very important. And of course, they had the big JJ Watt signing. But the Titans on the other side, you know, it was all losses for them, Arthur Smith, Corey Davis, John Witt. But they did get some nice additions to that defense. But overall, you know, the two teams are kind of moving in different directions this offseason.

So I'm with you, Joe. I don't think it gets to three. You know, if I was on the, you know, looking to bet the Titans side, I'd just kind of wait. You know, if I was on the Cardinal side, get that two and a half now before it maybe shrinks a little bit. The Chargers go to the team at a 1 p.m. game. The Chargers are laying a point in half on the road, Tom. That's interesting. What's your read on this game?

Yeah, I think they're pretty evenly, you know, even teams here. But, you know, I mean, the home, we're going to get home field advantage back this fall. I'm very excited about that, Joe. Got to give, you know, the home team maybe two to two, two to three points here. So I think Washington should have been favored in this game. You know, I'm not saying they should have been three point favorites or anything. But I kind of would have flipped the line. I would have had the football team at minus one.

one and a half. But they and they, you know, the Washington team has more continuity coming in this season. They do, you know, they are breaking in Ryan Fitzpatrick. But he's a veteran. I trust that he'll get on the same page a little quicker than a younger quarterback. The Chargers, I mean, that's, that's a whole new team. You know, they have, you know, Brandon Staley coming in to coach, you know, his first time as a coach, very young coach. You know, Joe Lombardi, coaching offense again. He was a bit of a disaster in Detroit. So I have a lot more questions about this Chargers team. I think by the end of the year, they're probably going to be a team.

I'm going to be wanting to bet on every week. But early in the season, I'm probably going to be kind of fading the Chargers. I think there's going to be a lot of public money on them. They had a great off season. But I kind of want to see, you know, how they come together. After that first one of the season, that would probably be a team that I'll be starting to target more. It's been a winter, I guess a spring of discontent in Seattle. Seattle travels to Indianapolis in week one here, Tom, at a 1 p.m. game. Indianapolis laying two and a half at home, I mean, this is entirely dependent on which Carson Wentz you feel is the real Carson Wentz.

And I think pie in the sky, the 2017 Carson Wentz is obviously the guy the Colts are hoping they're getting. more realistically, they're probably hoping they can get them back to 2018 or 2019 levels, and they sure as hell hope it's not the 2020 version of Carson Wentz. What is your read on your power rating with Carson Wentz? Are you skeptical here? And how does that play into how you're looking to bet this Indianapolis laying the two and a half at home? Yeah, I thought this line was pretty close. I mean, I would have had it a little bit closer to pick them.

I'd probably like, you know, the Colts minus one or so. but, you know, it seems like all off-season long here, the Colts have been kind of, you know, power-rated by the books, at least, closer to Wentz's ceiling, you know, that, you know, that probably the 2018 version, like you said, you know, which is probably smart on their part. You know, you don't expect, you know,

that was an outlier season, 17 outlier season last year. You know, you're not going to, you know, book him like he's going to play like he did last year. So, but I think it is a little bit ambitious, you know, so I, I kind of think this is, this line is generally in the right spot, but I do have questions about the Colts. You know, Eric Fisher, you know, we'll see if he, you know, I would still be surprised if he plays week one. You know, they did sign him there, but, you know, he's going to have to knock off some rust. That's a, the Achilles injury is a major injury to get over there. So, you know, they have some potential issues.

We saw that offense. It took some time to get on the same page with Philip Rivers last year. Now, you know, this is the fourth straight season where they're breaking in a new quarterback. So, you know, Frank Reich overall is, you know, one of the top five, top 10 coaches in the league. But that's a big ask for the fourth straight season here. This is another team that could take a little bit of time to get going. So I'll probably go for the continuity with the Seahawks. actually getting a few points as well.

For a matchup between bad teams, there's going to be a lot of buzz around the New York Jets against the Carolina Panthers. Sam Darnold is laying four and a half at home against Zach Wilson, the guy who was taking his job, or made him expendable rather. That is an interesting game, Tom. The way I look at it right now, there ain't no way I'm betting on this game. How do you have these two teams power rated? Yeah, this line looks about right.

You know, I would have had it in like the four, three and a half. four point four point range there i i think it might tick down a little bit i think the jets have had a pretty strong strong off season and uh you know i don't i don't see a lot of people just like line it up like oh sam darnald is all the sudden back to being you know this thought of as the number three overall pick you know high expectations i think people are going to be a little skeptical still so i do probably see this line dipping a little bit but i'm kind of with you joe this is one of those. I want to sit back. I want to watch that Jets offense under Mike LaFleur for the first time. He's calling place for the first time. Robert Sala is, you know, first time coach. Sam Darnold,

brand new offense, you know, brand new weapons around him outside of Robbie Anderson. At least he has some experience with him. But, you know, this is this is a game. I'd rather sit back, watch, take notes, you know, gather information for fantasy and betting and, you know, see what happens and look at those teams a little bit later in the season for betting options. Yeah, definitely not something I'm going to be looking to bet here. Minnesota laying three and a half on the road against Cincinnati, this is another interesting matchup, Tom. And you have to think we have no real idea right now about Joe Burrow.

I know you talk about Dak Prescott, but Burrow got hurt later in the season. And they also still haven't really done a whole lot to that offensive line. Minnesota laying three and a half on the road. Cincinnati has a lot of talent. Cincinnati's got a lot of juice, but the questions here are obvious as we're sitting here in May. Yeah, I'm pissed.

This line opened at two and a half. The Vikings get, you know, laying two and a half on the road. I missed my opportunity. I was writing up the article. I was wanting to get it out there before the line moved. And it didn't take long, you know, I started writing at like 9 or 10 o'clock in the morning. And then by 11 o'clock, it was already at 3.5.

so I couldn't give it out for the site. But, you know, I'm much, you know, I'm pretty bullish on Burrow overall, but I could see them, you know, the Dallas situation is a lot different than Cincinnati. Cincinnati knows this is a rebuild. You know, they're not making the playoffs this year. You know, they want Burrow to be the guy for the next 10 years. If there's any questions at all, if he's not close to full health, I see them taking their time with them.

So, you know, I have a lot more questions about whether Joe Burrow is going to be ready for week one. And, you know, I'm kicking myself for not getting that line out in time. I still like it if you can find some threes. But, you know, where do you think this line would be if Joe Burroughs out of line up? I think it probably be close to a touchdown probably in that 67 point range. And then if Burrough does play, you know, maybe it gets back to that two and a half point range. but, you know, there was some value for a little bit of time there at two and a half, but now that it's up to three and a half, I still think, I still think it's on the Viking side,

but it's not as much as it was. Hey, Tom, when's the last time? And I don't know if you can answer this, but when's the last time a team that won one game the year before had the number one overall pick is favored on the road in week one? That's the deal with Jacksonville, giving a point in and a half to, well, now you're going to understand why they're favored. The Houston Texans, the biggest dumpster fire in all of professional football. I don't know how anybody could reasonably bet this game right now. I guess if you think Deshaun Watson there's no chance he plays for Houston, maybe you lay the one and a half with Jacksonville,

but we have no clue what Urban Myers team's going to look like. We have no clue who's going to be playing quarterback for Houston. This is a stay away for me. Maybe not for you if you're a risk taker, though. Yeah, this is kind of the passing of the baton here from the number one overall pick in 2020 season to the new 2021 number one overall pick with the Texans. You know, their season win total is plummeted this offseason. I think it's sitting at four, four and a half wins now. And that's with an extra game added to the schedule.

So, I mean, that's about as low as I've seen. you know, this is a one-way action game. Like, if you're even thinking about betting the Texans, I don't know why you would be, but if you were. Take your money out of your sportsbook account now. You're going to lose it. Just withdraw and go buy something nice. I mean, just get rid of it. But if you are, just wait.

And you're going to be able to wait all season long if you're looking to bet the Texan. You know, they're going to see, you know, we've seen it all off season long. It's just there's no action. on them. This is a franchise that is completely bottomed out here. Maybe we'll get Deshawn Watson news at some point. I don't think it's going to be good for him to play week one. I mean, we've seen it in fantasy drafts. You know, he's slipping into, you know, we, I've seen him over 150 picks in. He's slipped to that point. So there's not a lot of optimism that he's going to be available at the beginning of the year. So, you know, maybe, maybe if you're

like the, I mean, this is under a field goal. Maybe I can only see betting on the Jaguars right now. You know, and I think that the action has kind of been on the Jaguars so far, you know, the day after the opening lines came out. You know, I'm seeing twos and two and a halfs out there. So I would not be surprised if this line gets to a field goal in the near future. So if you want to get on, you know, if you want to bet against the Texans, now it would be the time. Get it while it's under a field goal. San Francisco, we don't know who's going to be playing quarterback for him.

I'm not sure it matters, Tom. They're laying seven and a half on the road against another contender for the number one overall pick, the Detroit Lions. And I just think, I guess they're probably lining this as if Jimmy Garoppolo is going to start, but I'm not sure it really matters all that much. I just think the books do San Francisco, and correctly so, as a far more talented team than the Detroit Lions. Yeah, I don't think there's much of a difference right now.

you know, there's no kidding that Tray Lance is going to be the better option later in the season. But I don't think the books would have a huge difference in power, maybe a half a point, maybe a point. So, you know, this line kind of opened at seven. It's ticked up here at seven and a half. You know, I don't have a real urgency to bet this game. You know, the Lions have had an offseason. You know, they're clearly in a rebuild here. 49ers, you know, they're.

bringing a lot of guys back from injury, you know, going to be breaking in potentially a new quarterback. So not exactly a game I'm like dying to get involved with here. But, you know, the chance to get those sevens that were out there for a bit are gone. So this is one of those, you know, no real urgency on either side. I think the 49ers side would get more action here. Maybe it ticks up. I don't see it hit in double digits before week one unless, you know, something major happens. So, you know, I kind of see just sitting back and waiting on this line on both sides right now.

Philadelphia travels to Atlanta, Tom. Atlanta's laying three and a half at home. And that seems about right to me. The three point home field advantage is back this year, as you've mentioned. And I guess people just don't really know what Philadelphia is going to look like, quite frankly. Not really a game I'm interested in betting right at this point. There is some talk that Julio Jones could be traded. Tom, I'm not necessarily buying that.

My whole thought is like Atlanta's going to be. Matt Ryan says he has a couple good years left. Try to go out there and score as many points as possible. They certainly have the talent to do that. Yeah, it seems like the Colts or the one, you know, at least a bit of a possibility there. They have a lot of cap room. Obviously, they don't have that number one type receiver. And, you know, they're trying to make Carson Went succeed at all costs.

possible. So, I mean, that seems like the one kind of possibility, but, yeah, this line, it's pretty, pretty accurate. I would lean towards the Falcons, just because, you know, they've been together a little bit longer. It is a new offense, though, under Arthur Smith. So, you know, I'm not going to be, you know, the Falcons aren't going to be favored in this range very often this season. And when they are, you know, I'll probably be fading them. This defense, isn't exactly one. It's going to be a bottom five units. So I'm not going to trust them to hold leads of substance here.

So three and a half, you know, I'm leading towards the Falcons, but, you know, probably a stayaway game for me. See how this unfolds with the Holyo Jones situation. I think that that line could drop, you know, it would at least get to a field goal, potentially under a field goal of Holyo Jones is treated. So just a situation, I'm just going to kind of sit back and see where that line goes this summer.

The Belger Avenue battle is week one, Tom. As Pittsburgh travels to Buffalo, Buffalo late six and a half at home against the Steelers. And obviously the Steelers are loading up trying to go for one more run at the Super Bowl here. That's why you take Najee Harris in the first round. The books aren't buying it right now, Tom. You have to imagine, and certainly your power ratings, rate Buffalo is one of the strongest teams in the NFL. Yeah, they're the next.

team there. There's a clear top of the league right now. It was the two Super Bowl teams with the Chiefs and the Buccaneers. I think they kind of distance themselves by the end of last year, especially with the Rogers situation in Green Bay. But, you know, the

Steelers, I mean, still getting a little bit of respect here. I mean, there was nothing to like about, you know, how their season ended last year. Couldn't protect Big Ben, couldn't run the ball. Defense started to fall apart a bit just because they were getting stressed.

And, you know, it was an ugly situation by the end of year. So six and a half, you know, that seems about right. I don't, that's a line I don't really see moving too much. You know, any time a seven's going to pop up over the summer, you know, I see those getting taken out. You know, I don't see it getting much. I don't see it getting below six. So it's kind of just going to float in this six, six and a half range. But, you know, I think the bills, you know, I think the bills, you know,

you know, had another strong off season here. I think they've kind of established themselves as the number two. Stealers, you know, they took some hits on defense. They lost some key players, Stephen Nelson, Mike Hilton, you know, Bud Dupree. So it's not quite the unit it was at the end of last year. So, you know, I'll lead towards the bills here, but no real rush in either direction. I mean, where are we at in the National Football League, Tom, when both Pittsburgh and Cleveland are on the road in week one. Pittsburgh is, is, is at Buffalo. Cleveland is at Kansas City and Cleveland is a shorter underdog than Pittsburgh. Cleveland is a five and a half point underdog at Arrowhead, Tom. I mean, it just, it's unbelievable to think like, I mean, that, just that matchup. It's hard to get

my brain around that matchup and think, oh, this is a two touchdown line and realize that, no, the books have more respect for Cleveland than they do for Pittsburgh at this point, and justifiably so. Yeah, it's, you know, we were chatting a little bit in a group chat there last night. You know, the NFL is showing very little respect to the Steelers. They, you know, they always schedule the Browns in the Steelers week one, just because, you know, it's a big game, a big rivalry game. But there's never a guarantee that the Browns are real competitive late in the year. So they want to, you know, get that game out of the way early in the season. season and they always scheduled the Steelers and the Ravens for a primetime game and they did not

this year. So the NFL is saying that the Steelers, and they scheduled them for week 18, which we know is, you know, they don't necessarily schedule the top two teams in each division in those type of contests because, you know, they want meaningful games, you know, earlier in the season. So they're signaling that the Steelers are the third best team in the AFC North right now. But I think they're justified. The Browns have had an incredibly strong offseason. They kind of, they kind of hit on all their big needs on defense, getting Josh Johnson and John Johnson and, you know, Troy Hill, you know, from the Los Angeles Rams over the off season. And then I love their first two picks in the draft. In the draft, they're getting linebacker. I'm not even going to try to pronounce

his name. I'll call him Joker. And Greg Newsom at cornerback. I know you do more radio, Joe. Do you have that name in your holster already? Jeremiah Wusu Cormoa. You nailed it. That was perfect. Is that who you're talking about? Oh, yeah.

JOK. JOK is what I'm going to call. And that's what everybody's going to call them, I'm sure. But, like, I take pride and I want to be able to pronounce people's names. You know, that's just, you know, they deserve that level of respect. You're excellent attitude. I always take notes whenever you pronounce a name, because I know you really look. And I know I mispronounced Robert Sala, isn't it?

Is it Sala? Is it Sala? I don't know, is it? I didn't know that. Oh, I don't know. I'm asking you. You're the expert. My name's Joe Dolan, Tom.

I mean, I have a boring name. But, like, no, that's just one of those things that it's like the most baseline. Not knocking you, but it's like the most baseline level of respect you can give somebody is, is at least trying to get their pronunciation of their name reasonably close, at least showing that you're making an effort to do. do it, I think. So like, but yeah, I mean, when you're on the radio, you do podcasts, it's one of those things that, that I just like to do. As someone that had their name mispronounced a lot as a kid, you know, it doesn't, it doesn't really affect me. What were you, Broly? Brewley. It was always

Brewley. Tom Bruley. Brewley. Bromily. Bromily, yes. Another moniker for me. Anyway, Miami travels to New England. New England lane two at home here, Tom. Belichick respect, lack of respect for Tuol. What's your read here? See, it's kind of about right. You know, dolphins have had a great off season, but, you know, we're working in the home field advantage. You know, I think it kind of says that they have the dolphins rated above the Patriots right now.

You know, these books usually put two and a half, three points for home field advantage. And I agree with them. I have the dolphins rated ahead of the Patriots right now. Patriots had a lot of weaknesses last year. They addressed some of them here. They're going to get a couple of the opt-outs back as well. You know, upgraded receiver, but, you know, they still have Cam Newton at quarterback.

You know, he wasn't exactly one of the top passers in the league. It was pretty ugly at times last year. So, you know, this line looks about right to me. You know, I probably would lean towards the dolphin side here a bit, but, you know, just catching the points, I think they're the better team. But, you know, this is pretty evenly lined. I probably won't jump in on this game unless, you know, it moves like a point to two points in either direction.

You know, if the dolphins, you know, get the three points or I could see get involved then. But, yeah, this line isn't too enticing. I think it's pretty properly lined. Are you a gambler? Oh, yeah. Denver at the Giants. Denver's laying a point and a half on the road, Tom. Is Aaron Rogers built into this at all, in your opinion?

Oh, absolutely. You know, and we're going to get to the Green Bay. Some lines started to pop up for that game as well. The books are basically kind of hedging their bets right now. They do some gambling as well. They put these lines for both of these games kind of in spots where it's right in the middle of the extremes. So, you know, I think if Rogers, I mean, I think it's up over three, three to four points if Rogers would happen to get traded to the Broncos here, you know, on the road against New York. But if it's Drew Locke starting week one, I see the Giants going off his favorites, you know, probably in the two to two and a half point range.

So I see the books kind of middling here. And you don't want to touch on that Green Bay game real quick? Yeah, I mean, Green Bay, like Tom, the books, the books are. They're not even putting this game on the board, Green Bay at New Orleans. Yeah, they just did. They did this morning. But they were very hesitant too. They released all the games yesterday, 15 of them.

You know, but the 16th game, it started to come out here. The Saints are favored by two and a half. So, you know, I theorized in my article that, you know, the Packers would be, you know, probably a point to two-point favorites with Rogers in the lineup. And, you know, as big as, you know, six to seven point. underdogs with them out of the lineup. So I found it pretty interesting that for both of those games with the Packers and Broncos involved, they pick the middle point between those two extremes. So, you know, you're right, Joe. If you're a gambler, if you want to gamble on that Roger's situation,

you know, bet it how you think it's going to go because you're getting a little bit of value right now with both those games. Exactly. Depending on what team you think he's going to be playing for. Of course, Tom, you could be wrong both ways if he decides not to play at all. Yeah, I mean, maybe that's the way to do it. If your book Lousy-Doodoo parlays, like maybe you bet, you know, I'm going to bet against the Broncos because I think he's staying in Green Bay. And I bet the Packer's side, you know, maybe do a little bit of parlay. You're getting a little bit of value on each side.

So maybe that's the way to attack that. Just bet, you know, bet whatever you think the outcome is and maybe do a little parlay with it. Chicago at the Rams here, Tom. I'll be completely honest. I'm excited to see Matthew Stafford in primetime. I just wish the matchup was a little bit better. This game could have some Sunday night football juice if Justin Fields is the week one starter for the Chicago Bears.

This is probably lined as if Andy Dalton's going to start. Tom, I wouldn't see a significant difference here between Dalton and Fields, knowing that Fields has no experience, even if he's not. the starter. The Rams are going off as a touchdown favorite at home, and that seems right to me. Yeah, I thought this was a pretty interesting game from them to pick to be the Sunday night game, just because, you know, we have no idea Fields is going to be the quarterback. So maybe, maybe this is a bit of a sign that, you know, they think the NFL thinks that Fields could, could be a day one starter here. I would think that this line, you know, I would think, you know,

that this is kind of in the middle. I think it might get underneath a touchdown. If Fields as the starter. You know, he has clear, you know, it's just clearly, clearly more upside with Justin Fields at this point. Andy Dalton was pretty pedestrian, you know, the last couple of years in Cincinnati and last year with Dallas. So I would see that line ticking up a bit, you know, probably in the seven-half, eight-point range of Andy Dalton's name the starter.

And maybe, maybe under a touchdown at Fields is the starter. But, you know, yeah, I thought that was fascinating, that they picked that game to be the Sunday night game of, you know, there's a ton of great game. You know, this is a loaded opening week one. So I thought that was a little bit questionable on the NFL's part to make this the Sunday night game. So they scrapped the week one Monday night football double header, Tom. And I've gotten used to the Raiders hosting the late game of that Monday night football double header. But here's what the NFL is thinking, obviously here, Tom.

That Vegas Stadium is going to have, it's going to be packed and it's going to be in prime time in the new black hole in Vegas as the Raiders host the Baltimore Ravens. Unfortunately for the Raiders, Tom, they are six point underdogs at home in prime time in the first game really in front of their new fans in Las Vegas. So not a lot of respect for the Raiders in the books, Tom. You actually have them rated, power rated a little bit better than the books do. doesn't necessarily mean you're going to be betting this game. No, no, no. Yeah, you know, the Raiders had a pretty rough off season. A lot of it was self-inflicted, you know, treading away their, you know, more than half of

their offensive line. You know, three out of a big five there with Gabe Jackson going to Seattle, Rodney Hudson, going to Arizona, and Trent Brown going to New England. So new look offensive line, the weapons are still very questionable. Lost Nelson Aguilar bringing John Brown defense was obviously the major issue in Las Vegas last year. So it is a bit inflated towards the Ravens, but I'm with you, Joe. Might be a touch of value with the Raiders here. You know, Las Vegas, I don't even know if they were having partial fans in by the end of the last season.

They might have been like the California teams there that didn't have any fans. Right. Tom, it's not a, it's not a coincidence that both the L.A. Stadium and the Vegas Stadium are hosting prime time games. Yeah, that's a good point. That might be, you know, that might have been a big reason why, you know, Los Angeles, you know, they obviously built that new stadium. They want, they want that big prime time situation. That place is pretty spectacular, isn't it? It is. I was watching a bit of the NFL, you know, they had their NFL schedule reveal.

I was flipped it on for about two minutes last night, but they were kind of doing it out of the stadium. And it's spectacular without anybody in it. And it's going to be a fun. I think that's the home for the Super Bowl this year, right? Oh, is it? I think it is in Los Angeles. Super Bowl. But you're right.

That's why they gave these teams the home games in primetime. You know, they built the, you know, they want to reward these teams, these franchises, for building these stadiums. And that's precisely why they're in the prime time. I didn't even think that. It is. It is at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. California. Super Bowl 57 next year, Tom, is at State Farm Stadium that's out there in Arizona.

Oh, we're going to have back-to-back years with, you know, the, you know, we saw Tom Brady go to Tampa last year. Oh, because the Rams. Maybe, you know, the Rams making the big splash, you know, getting the quarterback, but maybe Justin Herbert will have something to say about that. Super Bowl 58, Tom. It does not appear they have a host for that one yet. because I think they had to push it because of Mardi Gras because Mardi Gras will be in New Orleans at the same time as Super Bowl 58 and they did not want that to happen. That would be an awesome party.

Holy grail. Century overload after being locked up for a year. So Super Bowl 59 will be in New Orleans. It looks like Vegas is going to host Super Bowl 58. Speaking of parties, by the way. Oh, man. Oh, man, Tom, we got to figure out a way to get the staff out there. Back in back years.

Let's go Vegas, New Orleans Super Bowl. Oh, 58 and 59. But yes, 56 is this year, and that's in L.A. Englewood, to be, to be exact. So anyway, that's the week one opening line report, Tom. But you know what? We're not done yet. I mean, let's talk some rookie of the year.

You're putting out a rookie of year article as well here. usually it's quarterback. But I did a little breakdown at the top of the article, but yeah, it's not always quarterback. And the reason I think, Tom, is running backs can come in and contribute right away and really accumulate numbers, right? So like the run, so like it's hard to, you know, for a quarter, Justin Herbert and Kyler Marie the last couple years, I think we're kind of more along the lines of your obvious. Well, I guess Justin Jefferson had a really good year. Jefferson kind of, you know, I'm sure people that had long-shot tickets, you know, because I'm thinking, I didn't give him out because I was a little skeptical about the landing spot last year,

but, I mean, I know I had like Rieger, like 40 to 1, 35 to 1. So with the same logic, right? Like, it was the same logic that you were using to bet Jalen Rager. Obviously, in hindsight, it doesn't look good. But it was, your process was kind of the same. Like, it's just you bet on Ringer instead of Jefferson. Yeah, it's just, Receiver, it's tough to win, you know, because, you know, we've had O'Dell Beckham.

That was really the only time here in recent history where a receiver has stood out enough to, you know, really win the awards. So. What if any Lacey was rookie of the year? Yes, he was. No kidding. He didn't have very great numbers. It was a bad year. Gertley didn't have an awesome rookie year either.

I was looking through his numbers. It must have been a pretty rough rookie quarterback. Yeah. And I remember. in, wasn't it? Yeah, yeah, neither one of those guys had a great year. But yeah, yeah, Gurley didn't even play for, like, the first two or three weeks of the season, I remember. So, like, yeah, that must have been a week year. But anyway, Tom, when you're looking to bet off a rookie of the year this year, who are you looking at here? We're just going to stick to

offense right now, but. Oh, yeah, please. I haven't dove into the defensive rookie the year and stuff, and I won't dive in too much. I'll be just looking at edge defenders for that or, you know, you know, off-ball linebackers. But, you know, my favorite bet is Noggy Harris. And I'm not just a Steelers Homer here, but his line has really dropped a lot at Draft Kings. He's now down to plus 800. Yeah, you can still get them at plus 1,500 at Fandall.

I think it's like plus 1,400 at Bet MGM. But just it's a little bit of that. You know, we've seen running backs win the award. You touched on Gurley and Lacey. also sells Sequin Barclay, went it recently in Elvin Camara, big receiving season as a rookie. So I went back and looked at the numbers for those four guys, and they averaged 280 touches, 150, 1,57 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns during their winning the winning season there, winning the Rookie Year award. So, you know, it's going to take a special season from Najee Harris to get to those type of numbers. but, you know, if there's one back that I think can do it, it's him.

And, you know, Steelers have said all offseason long with, like, their movements and stuff that they really want to commit to the running game here. That's why, you know, you're going to look at our projections and our rankings and stuff. And we're going to be a little bit higher on Najee Harris than most. And, you know, Pittsburgh, you know, we'll see. I do want to see how the offensive line looks in August, but, you know, it's pretty clear that they, internally, they think higher of their young personnel than the rest of the league. So, you know, we'll see how the offensive line shakes out. But, you know, I think that's some really good value at 15 to 1.

If there's one position that does win this award outside of quarterbacks, it's running backs. And I think Harris has a pretty good runway to get a lot of touches. And that's an interesting point you made there, Tom, because, you know, you can have the running back discourse over and over again. of course, you know, PFF and gave that pick like an F minus, of course, you know, got to stick to your guns. But Kevin Colbert, look, you can disagree with the pick. I know you wanted an offensive lineman with the pick, Tom, and you would have said, all right, take the offensive line and take Trey Serman in the second round.

Like that was your, but it, Kevin Colbert's not dumb. You know, he's done a really good job of this. Is it possible that they actually think their offensive line, is better than you or I think it is. I think that is exactly what's happening. I mean, they lost Zach Banner, or, you know, first game of the year. There was a lot of buzz around him.

He's a road grader at right tackle. He's going to be, they're going to be running behind him a lot. Dotson, you know, in terms of the, you know, the interior guard there, you know, the one question spot is left tackle. It's wide open there. But, you know, I think internally, they must feel a lot better about the group than the outside world.

And, you know, they, you know, Allie Vell and Aueva, he went to Baltimore. You ask a Steelers fan, they're probably happy. You know, he was an awful run blocker, and now he goes to Baltimore's offense to play right tackle. You know, Orlando Brown, he was another road grader. So, you know, it's a bit of a downgrade for Baltimore's rushing attacks. So, you know, I'm optimistic, and I just don't see any competition. You know, we've seen Benny Snell.

He's, you know, he's a below average running back in the league. Anthony McFarland couldn't get on the field as a rookie. So I just don't see a lot of competition for touches here. So, you know, there's any kind of improvement from the offensive line. I think, you know, Nausei Harris is looking pretty good to be a top contender for this award. It's going to be tough to be a quarterback. But, you know, he's the top option, even ahead of Jamar Chase and Kyle Pitts, two generational type players at their positions.

The quarterbacks, Tom, Trevor Lawrence plus 300. These are via draft kings, by the way. Justin Fields plus 600, Trey Lance plus 600, Zach Wilson plus 700, Mack Jones plus 1,000. Of those, what's your favorite bet? I also laid with Trey Lance. Shop around on that number as well.

I got them at plus 900 at Fandall. They seem to have a little bit softer pricing on the rookie of the year awards. But, you know, that's a spot. You know, if you look at the Super Bowl odds, you know, the 49ers are like the fourth or fifth favorite, you know. The 49ers have a chance to really rebound this year. I mean, he has the best weapons out of these guys. He's got, you know, George Kittle, best run after the catch receiver at the tight end position. You got Brandon Ayuk and Debo Samuel, like three absolute studs with the ball in their hands.

I think he's going to get rushing production. So, you know, the big question with him is just when it gets on the field. But, you know, if these other quarterbacks are playing on teams that are, you know, six or seven win teams, and Trey Lance is the quarterback on that team and they're going for their 11th or 12th win late in the season. And, you know, this is a award that gets voted on by writers. So, you know, that last impression. So if Lance and the 49ers are finishing strong this season, you know, I'd like those plus 900 odds.

I feel like he should be the number two favorite, and he's moved to the number two favorite at Draft Kings and some of the other books. So get that value now at that plus 900 price. It's probably not going to be there much longer. Tom, you're going to have this article up, rookie of the year opening line report. You're even going to have some defensive work in here.

I think our boys, Varns and Simons are going to help you out with that. I hope so. You know, I know some defense, but I don't know it in and out like those guys. that's why they crush it with the IDP stuff. So I need a little bit of input from the specialist there. Yeah. So those guys are going to help you out with that.

But you've done an amazing job with this article. That'll be up this week as well. But remember, you can check out Tom's opening line report. You can check out Tom's power ratings for free at FantasyPoints.com. If you enjoy it, make sure you subscribe to the site. So you can get Tom's betting package. I mean, the betting packages are going to expand this year. we're going to have a really good time with it.

Obviously, we were in our infancy last year in the middle of the pandemic, and we really appreciate everybody who kind of joined us on the ground floor. We've had a great time with that. Yeah, I got pat my back a little bit, Joe. You know, I'm going to hopefully start in early June. I'm going to start doing the team betting previews again and went 8 and 0 on the season win totals for the best best. Wow.

That's not the last time I checked, that's pretty good. That's zero losses. so you weren't giving anything to the books and it was all coming back in. So I'm going to go out on the limb and say I'm not going to be able to duplicate it this year, but I'm sure as hell going to try. Yeah, and check out, I mean, Wes Huber just put out massive dynasty rankings for literally every single possible configuration of a dynasty league you can possibly have. It just did an amazing job.

And remember, if you use the code early bird miss 21, you can get that 10,000. percent off. Just get a little bit of a discount if you missed our early bird special. We're full price now, Tom, but still one of the best values in the entire industry. I will guarantee you that you will get your money's worth at fantasy points.com. So, Tom, follow you on Twitter at Tom Brawley. Follow me on Twitter at FG underscore Dolan. Thank you for joining us for this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Tom and I will try to get on some sort of schedule here in the next couple weeks. But I had a lot of fun talking to you guys, and we will talk to you again soon.

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