Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Week 11 DFS Recap Podcast

Episode Date: November 22, 2021

Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) and special guest and FP subscriber Darren recap Week 11 DFS action. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Ladies and gentlemen, you are listening to the Week 11 DFS recap podcast over at FantasyPoint.com. JM to win will not be joining us this week. He has to do some travel related stuff with the family for Thanksgiving. And last year I did this as a solo pod, but hate doing solo pod. So brought on a very special guest who Fantasy Points premium subscribers will know and recognize from our Discord, very prominent name, one of the unsung heroes and MVP's.

of our Discord, very active. That is Darren. He took down the 50 cent minx a few weeks ago. He's a big poker player, former competitive surfer, and he's been big into DFS for a number of years now with some really good results. Darren, how are you doing? And would you like to introduce yourself to those who aren't on Discord?

Yeah, yeah. Thanks for having me on, Scott. That's kind of a real honor for, you know, being introduced on here. And fantasy points is just an amazing place to be. So if you guys aren't on here yet, joined up yet, I'm not sure what you're waiting for. Keep that pretty brief and simple to the point. All right. Well, we'll talk about your process.

We'll talk about your results. And we'll talk about my process. My results is in a little bit. or actually I'll just I'll just reveal it so yeah my process is sort of I'll put you know 80% of my bank weekly bank role into single entry tournaments and I typically lean more chalky there and then just sort of for fun or to track my progression throughout the week any lineups I make that I like and think about as using for my main single entry lineups. I'll just fire that off into something cheap, like the $300,000 entry, whatever it is, $50,000.

And as just like a way to see, yeah, $50,000, as a way to see, you know, was that a good lineup, what was wrong with it, and then look back and, you know, sort of study. and for the first time in a while, you know, the $3 play action. So that carried me this week. I had one lineup that finished with 206 points when all my single entry lineups flopped. And I think the mistake I made was I really felt like this entire week boiled down to how you attack the Las Vegas, sorry, the Kansas City Dallas game, which, you know, had this massive over under, significantly higher than any other game. And so the way I attacked it was, all right, I made some single entry lineups where I went

all in on that game. And I thought I was unique in doing so somehow. Or, you know, how I play off of it by playing Zeke, imagining, you know, Kansas City has flopped in offensively in three of their last four games. So you play Zeke and maybe he gets multiple scores and then you fade everyone else, something along those lines. And I think that was a mistake just in that, I mean, you can just say, hey, this game doesn't leave up to the billing and you just fade everyone from the game and you move on and you play something else.

And I think I could have just taken that approach, especially because like, you know, Johnny said all week, Kansas City did flop in three of their last four games and now Mari Cooper's out. that hurts Dallas's offense as a whole. And even Zeke, sure, he has multi-touchdown upside, but he's also seating double-digit touches to Tony Pollard every week. So he in and out of itself is like not a great play in a vacuum. And so, and me and J.M.

Talk about this every single week where it's like, you know, it pays to go contrary. It pays to go. And everyone is, you know, chopping at the bit to play these guys in this game. when I really should have just full on faded it. The lineup I had that scored 206 points, I made like the first Monday through Wednesday, I made only six lineups.

And they were all Jonathan Taylor, Elijah Moore lineups. And usually, for whatever reason, this has happened multiple weeks now where I play a great lineup. And then I move off of it and I, you know, erase the entire history of those lineups. I pivoted all the guys I liked early in the week into something else. And this time I just kept it. And so I ended up with, or I kept half of them.

I ended up having three Elijah Moore, Jonathan Taylor lineups, which really carried me. Again, there were other guys that hit. Christian McCaffrey, Jalen Waddle, Miles Gaskin, Texas defense, Dawson Knox. But just the reasoning there. I didn't really tout Elijah Moore. And I'm sort of regretting that. But just the thinking was like, I mean, it's so hard to recommend a guy who's been capped at a 50% route share in each of the last three or four weeks. I mean, Joe Flacco targeted him on 66% of his throws last week, but he only threw three times. So it just seems super thin. To me, it was really just, hey, I love this guy.

exposure to him. And then Jonathan Taylor wasn't just a contrarian play. I wrote him up as basically what you do with running backs is you just chase all the value guys or you pay up for Jonathan Taylor or Christian McCaffrey and no one else just because those are the guys with 30 to 40 points slate breaking upside plus a 20 point median projection every week independent of matchup. And so like the Uber bell cows that we've had in prior season. we don't really have that this year. It's really just McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor in my mind. Maybe that you lucked out because Buffalo folded or maybe you were smart enough to realize, hey, Buffalo is one win against a 500 team. Josh Allen, something like 80% of his touchdowns

have come starting in the opponent's field position. So maybe they're sort of fraudulent or what have you. But really that was the key to the slate. And then a Rogers dubstack would, which we'll talk about in a little bit. But do you have any thoughts there, Darren? Yeah, so basically on obviously the Dallas, you know, Dallas game in KC, based on what, you know, my buddy says, Rich, he actually says, you know, Vegas didn't build all those casinos out there on not knowing what they're doing. So when you see a total like that, you know, if it fails, it fails.

But as far as what I, what my process was on the Dallas game was, you know, everybody's he going to take DAC or Mahomes, paired up with a receiver or two and come back. So what I did was, it didn't work, but, you know, I thought it was the right move. I actually used Dak, who was a little lower on the Mahomes. And then I actually used Shultz and Cedric Wilson because I reached out to you. And I thought he was, you know, like you had mentioned, I think he, like week one, he played 88% out of the slot. And, you know, he's going to basically be on the field most of the time. He was only 3,200.

in a high-scoring game. And I didn't have a comeback because I figured everybody else, this is GPP, by the way. So I figured everybody would have a comeback. Oh, I'll have to have a comeback. And what I've learned from you guys and Johnny, you know, listen to the streams and everything else, you don't have to have a comeback.

So that's, that was my take on the Dallas KC game. And the other big take for, you know, was the big discussion this week was Cam and then CMC. so it made total sense and I 100% agreed where not having Cam and CMC in the same line I thought their ceilings were capped so you know obviously I didn't think I didn't think either one had a huge ceiling you know I didn't think you would see a CMC game 35 40 points camp got a pretty big ego and his first home game if you saw him coming out to the crowd he basically left his teammates behind and he

kind of like went running out in the field put his arms up hey i'm here i'm here it's all about me it's me me me you know you know and i would have pet anything and he was going to get at least one rushing touchdown for the home crowd because it's about him so i went um i decided to go a lot lighter on cmc because of that reason um i would have been super interested to see how CMC would have played this week if there was no CAM at all. A full, you know, back to fully healthy. If that was the case and there was no CAM at all, I say they never signed him, you know,

CMC could have had a monster game because then it's just basically all him. It doesn't have to worry about CAM doing all the boltering and everything else. So that was my take on two of the, you know, two biggest storyline, so to speak, this week on those two games. Yes. It's funny you bring up Cam's ego. T.J. Hernandez has an all-time great story about meeting Cam in Vegas when he was working as a bartender talking about his ego. But he told that off air. So I'm not going to share it. But I definitely think your assumption with Cam's ego is absolutely correct. So that's pretty funny to me. So the absolute nuts of the week. And I mean, Go Sixers Go. One of the top DFS pers, around he hit this he had a bunch of guys who just totally flopped but he doubled binked just because he hit the nuts and it was well it was Taylor and

Elijah he didn't have Elijah but he had the other three guys which were which was the Rogers dubstack oh four guys plus Justin Jefferson I don't think he had MVS but like the absolute nuts would have been Taylor Elijah Rogers dubstack and then run it back with with Jefferson which is obvious. And so it's funny because I was texting J.M. last night and I was like, man, I'm already looking forward to doing the show. Like, it's too bad. We're skipping it this week. What are you, what are you up to? And he's like, yeah, I'm actually taking the week off just because I'm so swamped with family stuff. And I text back, sad. I posted this in Discord. Sad, the Rogers dubstack is

going to win the Millie without you. And then it literally won the Millie without him. He didn't play at all, but I just really thought that was a great play. I actually tweeted out and then deleted it, but I tweeted out, it's funny that the Rust Dubstack is the most, often the most highly owned when it's probably the worst one. And then I showed the correlations. So Lockett and Metcalf, the correlation is like negative 0.4. Thielen and Jefferson is like 0.00 or negative 0.05. And then MVS plus Adams is like 0.15. I mean, someone replied and was like, this is stupid. Everyone knows that the Metcalf Lockett Dubstack is bad.

I'm like, oh, maybe that was the case. So I just deleted the tweet. But shows you where my head was at. And still, I didn't play it. I didn't play it. And I really should have played it. Because at the end of the day, like, that's what won the lineup. And you can make what won a lot of people, a lot of money, Adams to MVS, that big play.

That's the entire thesis. It's just, yeah, you take away. that one big play, he doesn't hit. But that's why you play him. Then Adams smashing, if you read the Slate Breakdown, I wasn't that high on him in a vacuum. I wasn't. And that's probably a mistake.

Because I was looking at the cornerbacks, Patrick Peterson coming back. They've been top five against wide receiver ones. But Wes hit on the coverage shell matchup. And then like, just look at Adams history against the Vikings. He's had 100 yards or a touchdown in nine of his last nine. Now he has seven touchdowns in his last. three games against the Vikings 100 plus yards and three of his last four or four of his last five. And so that was a mistake in a vacuum. But like, I mean, I should have just landed that on that

in a GPP anyway. And the argument for Jefferson is just like, hey, we know this guy is on a Hall of Fame trajectory. He's young and awesome. And he finally came out and started saying, yeah, we need to get him the ball. And that happened last week. So I think I think post hindsight, And obviously, you know, that's cheating a little bit post hindsight. But post hindsight, I mean, you really could have easily landed on that. Yeah, well, I was close. I actually went the other way. And, you know, instead of just log watching and using one of the tools on fancy points,

which is great, is actually to see the history of a certain player against a team. And, you know, I think a lot of us can remember that Dalvin Cook basically had the Jolves and Taylor game that he had today last day when he played the package. and he had, what, four or five touchdowns in the game, and he was lower-owned. So I decided when I wasn't playing that much, well, I had like 1 or 2% CMC, I decided to use Cook. And another thought I have, and I actually was trying to bump Jefferson, and I did, I actually bumped his usage, and I obviously didn't get enough of him. But I do feel that certain teams come into town. they get a little bit more up for it.

We saw it with when Tampa went to Washington, you know, Washington's not playing for nothing. They're not playing for shit this year, right? But, you know, they're playing Tom Brady and, oh, Brady's coming to town. And they got up for the game. Minnesota, the Packers are coming to town. Aaron Rogers is coming to town. I think they get up for the game.

And I think certain players have a little bit more oomph in their step when that happens. And we do say it in other sports as far as that's concerned. And that's my take on that. But yeah, I thought, I tried to get some more Jefferson, but Cook, I figured, you know, I was hoping he'd get a little bit more used in the past game, which it's just wild. He's just not used this year. I don't know what the hell's going on with that. But I think that's going to change. It's just so weird how they've gone away from him. He looks healthy. He looks good when he runs. So, but that was, that was, yeah. Yeah, I don't know what's going on there. But I think you're right in that you were close because, like, one of the best arguments for rolling that.

out is, well, A.J. Dillon was the single highest owned player in cash. He came in at 63%. It's also one of the most highly owned players in tournaments. I'll have to check, but probably the single highest. And then there's two ways to play that in terms of leverage. You know, Dalvin Cook, it's, you know, Vikings get up two scores early. The Packers have to abandon the run. And then, you know, they just keep. trotting out Dalvin on the ground who racks up, you know, 150 yards and two scores. And then the other way to play that is the pass catchers. And it's a pass-heavy shootout. And that's ultimately what it ended up being.

But you were smart to lean there. And if you just went the other way, I mean, you would have won all the money because there was a lot of chalky guys who flopped. And I mean, so that's a good angle. to take is the winning millie maker lineup had a combined ownership of 26.8% that was the lowest I've ever seen by a landslide. This has been an extremely low collective ownership in the Millie winning lineup year. But I mean like low is typically like 80%. This was crazy. So it was Cam Newton, no Christian McCaffrey, stacked with Tommy Trembal, who did nothing.

It was Jonathan Taylor, by the way, came in at 3.9% ownership. So Johnny and I talked about this nonstop last night where it's like, I mean, Jonathan Taylor is a great play. Like I wrote him up as a great play. He's a, but if he's 3% own, he's an amazing play. But he's probably going to be 10 to 15% own, at which case he's only a decent play. Because every single website, you know, wrote up Jonathan Taylor is a contrarian play seemingly, but then he's 3.9%. And so John even play him at all, and his whole thing was like, I think he's going to be 10 to 15%. But if he, if Johnny knew he was going to be 3.9%, he'd probably have, you know, 20%.

Oh, 100%. Yeah, easy. So Cam and Trembal, Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders, who did nothing, Jalen Hertz, vultured, him three different times, Justin Jefferson, no Adams, Terry McLaurin, 1% ownership, Liza Moore, DeAndre Swift plus the Lions defense. And I mean, he definitely ran good, DeAndre Swift breaking that run with Tim Boyle, underst. center and, you know, Lions defense, but just crazy. One of the wildest, Millie-Making maker winning lineups I've ever seen. Yeah, Swift is just to plug and play, though, man, he just like, and I told you a few weeks ago when we're having, you know, a private chat back and forth, you know, he's just, he just does everything and doesn't, game script doesn't matter, quarterback doesn't matter. He's just involved. He can break it. The catch passes. He's just, he's one of my favorite players to watch. He, you know, he's giving

second, third effort every single time he touches the ball. He doesn't matter what the score is. He's just an amazing play, and he can bust him. He had 33 carries last week and how many did he end up with today? I was kind of curious. He only had 14. Again, it was really that big run. He also had zero receiving yards.

And Tim Boyle has 70s. No, 77 total passing yards for Tim Boyle. So, I mean, he definitely luckboxed on that run. I mean, Deander Swift is always in play. 66% of the calories and then 100% of the targets out of the backfield. So it was a bell cow workload, not by raw volume, but by share of the backfield. How many did, what's his name was back this week? Jamal Williams.

Yeah, how many characters did you get? Seven carries, 11 yards, no targets. So definitely a bell cow workload. But raw volume wasn't great. I mean, that's going to happen when you have Tim Boyle under center. But yeah, so let's talk about some of the chalky plays who didn't hit and why you could have seen that coming pre-hindsight, although we're analyzing it post-h hindsight.

I think Jeff Wilson was like one of the most obvious fades for large field tournaments. sense that he's an amazing play, no doubt, but it's very easy to imagine him flopping. He had 6.8 total fantasy points, 19 carries, 50 yards, one catch for 8 yards. I mean, he dropped that wide open in the end zone target. But to me, the thesis on Jeff Wilson was basically he either gets, 25 fantasy points, multiple touchdowns, or, you know, 90 yards, no receptions, no touchdowns. And so it was like a 50, a coin flip. Either he, you know, tanks your lineup with nine points, 90 rushing yards, nothing else.

Or he gets those multiple touchdowns. So I think that that's what it was for me. Do you have any thoughts on Jeff Wilson? Because like, but like, I mean, in a vacuum at his price tag. Just like great play. Yeah, I mean, I watch most of that game last week. And, you know, it went a horrible game to watch last week. But just a run, run, run.

And I'm not sure if you saw, but their first drive, 13 minutes in the first quarter. 13 minutes. That's how long the drive took. Basically, the entire first quarter to kick the field goal is just hilarious. Right. 13 minute drive. But, yeah, so, you know, hindsight, once again, I thought he was a good play based on the way. They played last week and they just ran, ran, ran, ran, ran.

But was he ready for a full 100% workload? You know, just coming back, just his first time back last week. And obviously, the answer was no. Depot Samuel is now running back. So that was my thoughts on that. But, you know, he was, the price was good. You know, they did have a higher team total. And I think it was Sharon.

they're tiny somebody in the chat had mentioned made a great point that you know sam fran had a almost a full touchdown um higher line than the bears did when people were discussing you know who was a better play montgomery or um or him so that's that's my thoughts on that but yeah it was he was cheap enough um but you know hindsight i did make a rule though as far as when i made my builds um i made sure only to have two of Wilson and then Dylan McCaffrey and I saw James Connor was pretty high, but I backed off him a ton after Kyler was officially ruled out. Yeah, they did run the ball 42 times. Debo Samuel ate for 79 and a score did nothing as a receiver, which surprised me,

especially with Shaq Griffin suffering at concussion. And then Trace Sermon, 10 carries through 32 yards. I wasn't expecting that at all, but could have just been because, you know, Wilson was averaging 2.5 yards per carry and he wanted to get someone else in there. Let's look at some other chalk. I mean, T. Higgins was 29% owned in cash.

Johnny was tweeting out that he's a Ponzi scheme. three targets, two catches for 15 yards. And I mean, yeah, he every single week for the past five weeks, he's been chalked and he hasn't hit once. So, I mean, that one's, I should say, you know, for cash, he's a fine play. A.J. Dillon was an amazing play, all that. But, like, that's why you also play tournaments. You do both.

Ideally, you play those chalk plays and you try and gain leverage off of it for, tournaments. But this one was it bad shock? It really might have been. You know, my, you know, what I wrote up in XFP was this really, to me, just seems like he's the alpha wide receiver one and Higgins is the clear wide receiver two. It's not that it's a wide receiver 1A, wide receiver 1B situation that some people just looking at well targets are suggesting. And you really saw that play out this week. I mean, Chase had, you know, six targets into double coverage, Higgins ended the day with three. But yeah, that was another one where it's just like, I mean, seems obvious post-hinesite

that that was a mistake. Yeah, I do. So I look at Higgins like, he's basically the third, he's the third or fourth option on any given week because of Mixon's involvement and then obviously chased as the alpha one. And then it could be Higgins one, we could be void. But what's their ceiling? You know, does he have a,

Johnny brings it up, does he have a 30 point ceiling? I don't think he does. You know, now if Chase were to miss a game, absolutely. I don't, I don't think you could,

I don't think you should ever play Chase and Higgins in a line. I think Chase and Boyd might be okay for cash. But, you know, he's just, he's just a guy. I guess he's, you know, he's a good cash play.

But, you know, looking back and looking, you know, talking it out night right now with you, I don't think Higgings is ever going to be a great GPP play unless, you know, Chase or Boyd, you know, misses the game. It really just seems to me like, you know, Chase is so Burroughs guys. So if there is an explosion week, it's really Chase driving that.

But I mean, you know, it depends on the week, depends on the pricing, depends on the match-up, all that. The million-dollar question all week was, is Casey Hayward going to shadow Higgins? In which case, I do think he's rightfully an amazing play. Maybe not even at what his ownership ended up being, though. But Greg Kassell was saying he didn't think Casey Hayward was going to shadow. And to my knowledge, he didn't. What about Michael Gallup, who did flop, five catches, 44 yards?

But he did see 10 targets, and at his price tag, I mean, it's hard to argue against that despite, you know, the bad results. C.D. Lam suffered a concussion, missed half the game. And Dallas's offense just fully imploded. And it's, you know, is that Amari Cooper being removed from the equation? Is that enough to just make this Dallas offense implode or was it just a down game? I don't have any great thoughts here. I don't know if you do, but. Yeah, I'm not going to, I'm not going to second guess, you know, especially for cash, anybody played cash. I would definitely not second guess a $4,200 dollar dollar dollar and a total that's got over 56.

You know, Kansas City's been absolutely brutal, and it looks like they're starting slowly to start getting it together. I don't want to use a short sample that they're back for sure. but, you know, he was a great play. I don't think you should ever second guess like that. Obviously, he's not as talented as some of the other guys on the team. And that's why I actually went to Cedric Wilson, who just flat out, if you saw, he just flat out dropped two balls in his hands, like in the middle of the field.

And like, come on. Give me a couple points, please. So I thought that was a way to go for GPP. But I thought Gallup, you know, if you were playing cash, he was a lock at that kind of price. Yeah, I mean, you have to be careful to be a small samples, but like, if you look at what Kansas City has done in recent weeks, I guess post-Tennessee, it really seems like that defense has turned around to a significant degree. But then again, you can just say the exact same thing about Green Bay. Like, they lost Jari Alexander, but they've been amazing and they, you know,

stopped all these top offenses. But maybe that was just a mirage, you know, Russell Wilson. Stunk again this week, Minnesota just lit them up. So you do have to be careful with that. I don't know. It's tricky. I think that was a mistake I made where when I was looking, when I wrote up Jefferson, the XFP report, I talked about his upcoming brutal strength of schedule. And I was like, oh, you know, Green Bay over the last five weeks, it's been the number one

defense against opposing wide receiver ones. But then again, yeah, I mean, Russell Wilson completely shit the bed. and he had the banged-up finger, he was rusty. And there's all these stuff you can look at. But you have to be careful with small sample sizes. But let's talk about some of the, I guess, other low-owned plays who hit big. Well, and a few others at Flatt. I will just say Brandon Cooks and AJ Brown.

I recommended that mini-stack for tournaments, though, you know, obviously wish I recommended Adams to Jefferson. But I wrote them up as basically the same play, where A.J. Brown is just like a greater version of Brandon Cooks, but the same risk, reward where they have the same problem, too. You know, A.J. Brown has flopped in now three straight weeks, and uncoincidentally, all three weeks have come without Derek Henry. And so, and Julio Jones isn't there. So teams are no longer stacking the box. They can bring that safety back. They could shade the safety. That's what New Orleans did last. week, also some bracket coverage, and you can just completely negate the one player and only player you really have to worry about. That's also what teams are doing against Brandon Cooks. And I wonder if both defenses did the exact same thing against their opposing wide receiver

one and both flopped. But for tournaments, I mean, it made sense because otherwise the underlying matchups were perfect and the flashed tournament winning ceilings. So it really was a gamble, but it felt like a gamble you at least need some exposure to. Yeah, like I said, now looking and talking it through, it just makes so much sense. Like, oh, he's a smash play, he's the only one there. But basically every team that's facing him, they're basically going to turn it to Bill Belichick.

Let's do the Bill of Pellichick to their number one guy. Let's make these other guys beat us. Tennessee has basically nothing a tied end right now. Firstker is just completely ghosted. He's just gone. I don't know what. He's just completely just. He's dust, as you guys say.

He's history. And it's the same with no running game. Houston, the same thing. Running games, David Johnson, really? It's just like nothing there. They've got cooks. And then, you know, Collins, really? It's like they have nobody else.

So I think moving forward, cooks and brown, if that's all they have and there's nobody else next to them, I think they're just fades. I think they're complete fades in cash, in GPP. they're just, it's just not, there's no real risk reward on these type of guys where they're just going to bracket those guys. Okay, guys, you guys are going to beat us with your third, fourth string backup running backs and your old, you know, your old ass other running back on this side.

So, yeah, talking that out, I think that's moving forward. That's just something to think about. Yeah. So, I mean, that's exactly the way I wrote it up is like, be very worried about this. they're very risky with the potential to tank your lineups. But, I mean, the upside's still there because, like, that was my reasoning on 2020 Devante Adams is like, why wouldn't teams just, you know, bracket him or shade safeties every single week because no one else there is intimidating.

But, I mean, he's still smashed every single week. I don't know if it was that he rose above it or what. I'm assuming that that's what it is or creative offensive coordinators finding a way to move them out into the slot or do some other pick plays or unique things like that. But, I mean, it really seems to me that that's what we usually record on Tuesday mornings. We're recording this on Sunday just because the Thanksgiving slate kind of throws everything off. So I can't check these numbers.

But, I mean, I'm guessing that's what occurred. And clearly it was successful. Tyrod Taylor, 107 yards, no touchdowns. Ryan Tannehill, four interceptions. A.J. Brown, 48 yards. Nick Westbrook, Akina had over twice as much. Chris Conley was the leading receiver for the Texans, 37 yards. Yeah, so let's talk about some plays that hit. I was really beating myself up for not playing Jalen Hertz, especially at 2% ownership in the Millie Maker. you know, he has that multi-rushing touchdown upside that can really just absolutely break a slate

and, you know, we saw it and that hit. Like, why aren't we, like, we set it all offseason. I mean, Jalen Hertz, I have on, you know, 80% of like 30 redraft teams went really all in on him. And part of the reasoning was he has the highest floor due to the mobility. the most weak-to-week consistency. Matchups don't matter anywhere near as much. And these guys also have the highest ceilings every week because of that.

And so, you know, absolute smash for him. 2% ownership, cheap. So that was probably one of my worst, like hindsight process misses, I think, was not even writing him up, like just to even just run out, hurts naked and that's an amazing tournament play yeah and i've been doing that's one of the rules i've been setting too is i don't you don't have if listen if he falls in with one of the past catch just fine um i did i do the same with cam apart from specific lines up i made where uh i tried to get the other island brother robbie all right so let's talk about that um you've been

chirping in chat all week you didn't have high high exposure to him but you did have some exposure you had a dream. Is that right? Nightmare. You want to tell the listeners what happened? No, I die. Who the hell has a dream about Robbie Anderson breaking the slate? I'm like, what the heck is going to?

I woke. It was like a Wednesday, you know. You know, it's DFS guys. We're thinking about football on lineups and everything all the time. And I have no idea why I just woke up and like Robbie Anderson, you know, like celebrating with Cam and the end zone with a touchdown. I'm like, what the heck is going on with this? So, you know, I'm like, jot it down.

All right. Let's see, let's see what happens with the dream. So I kind of shared it. I'm like, hey, I had a dream. If it's a nightmare, it's a nightmare. Oh, well. Fine. Yeah.

So I told you I had like 12% exposure to him. But again, it was like entered all in the super cheap stuff. I just like, I just wanted to, to tilt it with you. J.M. tells a famous story. One of his guys in his discord, who also writes, the site, is big into meditation. And so he was meditating with his wife on a Saturday night, as he does every Saturday night.

And he's trying to like manifest the plays, I guess, or he's just meditating. And so this song came to him and it just like kept coming and he couldn't shake it. So he goes out to a Mexican restaurant. There's a mariachi band. He's like, hey, I'm going to hum you a song. Can you please tell me what this song is? And he hums it. They're like, oh, that's Sir Duke.

That's the song. And he's like, Duke Johnson. And he plays him in the Millie Maker. I'm pretty sure he won the Millie Maker with Duke Johnson, who exploded that week. So I was like, I was gassing you up. I was like, oh, man, like, you know, you really might be, there might be some magic to it. And then I also went back and I listened to Cam Newton's post-game press conference. And he starts it off.

They're like, how does it feel to be back? He was like, impeccable. Me and my boy, Robbie, we had an unbelievable conversation over dinner last night and just great, you know, Robbie and, you know, talking all week and I, you know, my guy, Robbie and it just like seemed like they were BFFs. And so, like, I was trying to buy into it. I'm like, you know, like, maybe it seems like consulting a fortune teller and asking them who to play.

But, you know, I just thought that was so funny. But so outside of that, you know, what was. What was your build like this week? What was your process? What are you saying is good process, bad process? Because you're an MME guy, right? Yes, sir. I typically basically MME, you know, I do all the cheaper stuff, the 50 cent.

I max out. I do all a $3 max out, a dollar max out, $2 max out. And then I'll then I'll build one or two single entries and a little bit bigger stuff. Well, not that bigger, but, you know, 33, 44 single entry, Millie Maker, you know, all like this $12 single entry. and I'll make a couple lines on that. So basically, I look at the overall ownership and, you know, take a percentage off what I think the overall ownership is for the slate.

And then I basically go in and I make a lot of groups, a lot of settings and correlations. You know, I don't want, you know, like we talked about earlier with the Bengals guys, correlations like, you know, with Metcalf and Lockett, one of each of those. mostly 90 95% of the games I won't allow two running backs in the same game, but there will be a couple different cases depending on

past catchers, CMC, obviously the number one comes to mind, Najee Swift, depending on that game through. And then what comebacks makes sense and which ones I don't want to force and Johnny had mentioned it earlier

in one of the streams. He called it lazy, lazy building. And, you know, it hit home with me. It's like, yeah, that's lazy. You know, you quarterback with a receiver, tight-in, come back with the opposing team. So, you know, if you're building two-stacks, for instance, my two-stacks, you know, with Waddler, Chiske, you know, I didn't have to have a comeback. But what I did do, because he was high on Griffin, Ryan, this week, I did make a rule if I had

Griffin in a lineup, I made sure I had at least one of the dolphins that I used. use, you know, Waddle or Giseki or Tua, as far as that goes. So I look at the comebacks that make the most sense, and then I'll just look at, sometimes I'll do things at the sort. If I have two of a certain place, let's say I have a tight end and a running back on one side, typically I'm going to make a rule to have a guy come back on the other side. Because if two of the guys are going to smash like a tight end and a running back, typically the other guy on the other side is going to come back.

So it's all game dependent as far as that's concerned. And, you know, every slate's different and, you know, every slate's unique. Pricing comes into play. Vegas comes into play. Ownership comes into play. And it takes a lot of hours to, you know, trying to get it pinpointed correctly. And then sometimes it hits and sometimes it doesn't. But I think as long as your process is right and like talking, I haven't, you know, listen to this podcast every week and then kind of talking it out.

my rule is if your process is good and you got a bad beat kind of like poker people who play poker as long as you can talk about the hand so to speak afterwards hey you talk somebody that you trust you know did i play this hand correctly i just get unlucky and that's what we're kind of doing now we're talking it out did we get unlucky or was it a bad beat so in my opinion i thought dylan and gallop were bad beats i thought they were amazing smash plays um but they failed Is there anything else you'd point to that, you know, you think maybe the process was off on that you went with this week? I don't think, I thought the pricing and I thought the script in the way, you know, Sam Fran running the ball as much they did. And the pricing on Jeff Wilson, I think, was right.

They were on the road. But they were playing Jacksonville. It's not like they were playing, you know, at New England or, you know, something like that. Yeah, I will say, I did. write up and mention Jacksonville's defense is actually really good against the run. They're top pass funnel, like bottom five in pass rating, but like top five and yards were carried. But because game script is always so bad, they're going to rank top 10 in rushing fantasy

points per game. And that's what you saw. You know, you saw a massive rushing volume, but poor efficiency. All right. Well, let's talk about some more plays that I think were good chalk and some good plays that weren't chalk, but maybe should have been. I think Gaskin was a good chalk. You know, 23 carries four targets against this Jets defense, which is like one of the worst ever against running backs by schedule just fantasy points per game. I thought that was great. Salvin Ahmed,

surprise enacted, Duke Johnson. Per sources, by the way, the reason he didn't work out with the Texans last year was because he was fat, like legitimately, extremely fat. Per source. sources. Her source is like really out of shape. So like that that should never should have been a concern. So he did get that belcow workload we were expecting. Meanwhile, some other guys like Mark Ingram who was 30% owned in cash, which made no sense with Tony Jones active. Tony Jones didn't do anything. I thought it was a significant concern. I had, I texted Evan Silva. I made him text Nick Andrew Hill who ignored my DM and ask what he thought. Tony Jones. Tony Jones is going to get. He thought he was going to see legitimate work. But I mean, they were down

their left tackle and right tackle. And the Eagles are really good in the middle. They've been bad outside. So I think that was definitely bad shock. But I thought, you know, Kyler being ruled out that hurt Connor. There was another one of those value plays. I poked a hole in in the Sunday update that I liked a lot less. So I think that Ray is gas, and I thought that was a good play. Jalen Waddle, who we were all over all week, that was another really good play. Nine targets, eight catches, 65 yards. He's really been to his guy all year.

And then he added that rushing touchdown, which is like he has that, you know, little bit of Tyreek to his game. No one's Tyreek, but he has that to his game. I wrote up but didn't play Brandon Ayuk, led the team in targets, talked about Debo and the bad matchup against Shaq Griffin. I talked about how Jacksonville is really bad against opposing wide receiver twos, and that's clearly IUC, didn't play him. I think I think I should have been a little bit higher on an increasing target share every single week. But the one guy, I really regret not spending more time on or writing up our projections had as a top three wide receiver

play. It was Darnal Mooney. He had 121 yards and a score. He had 16 targets. You want to guess how many catches he had? Three. He had five. Five for 16, which is crazy.

I mean, he did it all with Dalton and maybe that's what bailed you out. but uh see that's a yeah that's probably like a that's probably like another another case like you know it's like different than the a j brown well moody oh moody's a great play there's no a rob but you know what they have a running game they have you know they have a running back and they have a you know a big tight end Tennessee just has a j brown period so you know he was able to you know have some one-on-one coverage and obviously he's got the speed to beat you know beat most uh most players you know, all that takes is one with a guy like him. But going back real quick to Ayuk, I know we talk about Ayuk, but does Jimmy, does that,

does Sanfran throw enough to where Ayuk's an every week type play? And does he have, for GPPs anyway, does he have that 30 point upside? I don't know. So I will mention that, and that's something else I've learned from you guys having a, you know, how many times has Jimmy thrown it this year? What's the most passes he's had this year? I'm not sure how many times he threw it today. But the plays, the little of the games I did watch today,

he was terrible. The way, I mean, he looked awful. He missed a lot of players. I'm not the analyst. Let Graham, if he could at some point, you know, at some point, you know, talk about how Jimmy actually looked on film. And that type of thing, though. This is my comment on those type plays.

Yeah. So Rumford Johnny, Texas. me this morning, he asked about Jimmy Garapolo. He listens to the show, so shout out to Rummy. He said, what do you think about Jimmy Garapolo as a

GPP play? Leverage off of Elijah Mitchell is going to be a mega chalk. And I was like, yeah, that's super sharp because that's super sharp, because you can make a really compelling case for Debo, which I did. You can make a really compelling case for Iyuk.

George Kittles, been an absolute monster. And Jimmy's like actually played really well in recent weeks. 300 plus yards and two of his last three prior to this week, four touchdowns of his last two games. And that just and like I said, Jacksonville is a pass funnel on paper. If you throw out game script, they're like one of the most egregious pass funnels. So it made sense. But I think in hindsight, you know, the leverage off of a. Elijah Mitchell is just don't play him because he doesn't get any target volume and he needs

those touchdowns. So if he gets 90 rushing yards, no receptions, no touchdowns, he just flaps. It's nine points. And then so really the play all week. And again, like, I mean, before we have the answers, I mean, like all this seems smart. And I mean, you really do have to get lucky. Was AJ Dillon, you know, AJ, you know, a very competent pass catcher. Leads all running back some yards per target, but the volume's not there. Probably not going to be anything like the target Aaron Jones is getting game script dependent. You know, what if it's a shootout?

What if, you know, Packers defense was a mirage like we were saying? And so if instead of, you know, looking for leverage off of Jeff, Jeff Wilson, you look for leverage off of AJ Dylan, you, you know, you went all the money with that, that dubstack and they bring back. Yeah, yeah, I had some shares of Miles Sanders. I thought it would be a really good leverage play. And as well as, you know, Eagles have been running it too. I thought he was a really, I thought he was a great play. But then he fumbled twice. I think he's dead for the rest of the year. All right. Well, I think I ran out of things to talk about. I asked for questions on Twitter and on Discord. And I got zero good questions. And this happens every single time. You guys really need

to start coming correct with the questions. So I guess the last thing I'll say is, yeah, you want to talk about your bank from a few weeks ago because I thought that was your process there was super sharp. That was the, you know, you went full fade on Dorel Henderson, who was like glaringly the most shocky play of the week. Yeah, so I've actually pulled it up right now. So yeah, and that's the whole thing.

He was the highest own player on a slate. And so I just decided I'm just going to go the other way. Let's be concerned. Let's use the other, let's use the pass catchers. Detroit had just been absolutely got awful, you know, watching Detroit play the first few weeks at the season on the back end. It's looking absolutely dreadful. This is week seven, just to clarify. Yep, yep, there you go.

Yeah, week seven. And so I had Stafford. and I did use Cup and then I had to come back with Swift and that made that made sense to me as far as that goes Johnny got me all over in the chat and that's something that's so valuable guys who you're not in the Discord

not a part of fantasy points the tidbits that we get on Sunday morning are just absolute gold you know most of us are in there just waiting for Johnny and Scott does you know the Sunday morning update you know last things that's just going to give you that edge over the top and 100% and you know the tidbit that johnny you know damien harris was basically the top playing the slate i forgot who was ruled out i forgot who the backup was at the time

remandre yeah i think it was it was him yeah i think it was ronjah um chase you know you know you're not going to ever second case playing chase oh i'm sorry i did use van jefferson i used van Jefferson with cup. So I did the double. I did the double a hookup. That's right. I was I was talking and you loved him and you loved him. Yeah, you brought him up. So yeah, you brought him up on the on the cashing points the Friday the Friday private screen for members. A great leverage play. And then Dallas Gobert for tight end. And then Gobwin was a smash play at home against Chicago. He was too cheap. I think he was like 60100 or something silly. And then I had the giant Steve. defense at home against the horrible Panthers when they were playing,

whoever it was the quarterback. So that was my process for that team and got lucky to beat 355,000 players. So you got to get lucky to beat that kind of players. But like I said, well, I said earlier, if your process is good, you know, and you can look back and say that was a good process. And I was actually, you know, hoping to hear from you and Johnny, you guys, yeah, That was a great team and well thought out. But that's the kind of builds that I make every week to try and to try and hit.

How much did that win? $15,000. $15,000. $75. So, I mean, for the week I probably put in maybe $250, $300 for that week. But I max out the mini max, which is $75. I'm sorry, yeah, $75 for the $5 for the, it 150 linens.

All right, so we just got some good questions coming in. So we'll get to that. But before we do, let's talk about the Thanksgiving slate. Are you experienced with the Thanksgiving slate? Do you play that? Every single. Absolutely. If there's a slate, I'm playing it.

Yeah, it's most people's favorite slate of the year. I think it's personally tricky. the one this is the first time I've given out a betting take on this show and that's hammer whoever Dallas is against it you'll have to pull it up for me whoever Dallas is facing because America's team always gets overbet on Thanksgiving always in their last 10 Thanksgiving games they have failed to cover the spread nine times. They're one and nine against the spread, which is insane. I think it's just, you know, that's America's team, you know, people or, you know, I'm going to have some money on this.

You know, I got to bet my guys. You can't wait to watch it with the family. And so it's just like free money. It's just always overbet on Thanksgiving. It's the Raiders. Raiders at Dallas. All right. Let's go Raiders.

I'm eager to see what that line comes in at. especially without apparently Amari Cooper and CD Lamb. It's going to be rough. We'll have to see. But that's my one betting take. And then just from a DFS perspective, that's tricky. You probably approach it differently because you're an MME guy. But it's because I was talking to Jake Tribby about this,

who's writing up the Thanksgiving Slate breakdown. Now I'm going to help with that. I was like, well, this shouldn't be so bad. only three games you have to analyze. Like, well, actually, it's, like, even harder because you have to write up everyone. You know, there's no play that's, like, a bad on paper play. Just be, well, depends on pricing. But, like, you have to consider everyone because there's so many fewer options.

So how do you approach that as an MME player? And then, I mean, you do single entry, too. Yeah, so real quick, it's, I see a spread right now, 54 and a half, Dallas fight favored by seven. Oh, ho! That's what it shows right now. Hammer it. Hammer it.

I mean, we're recording Sunday night, so, you know, see you, Lamb News. Of course, it will change. It will change, yeah. I mean, that is, and, of course, after the brutal loss, but that is yikes. Yeah, so that's when Chicago and Detroit, by the way, is 45, and Chicago's figure by three. And so that's interesting. Anyway, so, yeah, three games slate, obviously, a lot trickier.

You don't, you're going to be a little bit more unique with your, with your build as far as that goes. You know, what's everybody else doing on a short game slate, you know, instead of guys being, you know, 22 to 24% owned on a three game slate, you're going to see guys 35 to 45 to maybe even, you know, 50% owned. So obviously if Zeeke misses this week, I can't imagine what Pollard's only. ownership is going to be like this is going to be absolutely massive. I'm assuming the highest on the entire slate,

hands down. So that's something, you know, you kind of have to like take a stand, eat the chalk at home, after a loss, embarrassed, Thanksgiving day.

I mean, how would you approach that? I don't know. I don't even, that's what I mean. Yeah, if you have to see what the pricing comes in at. I'm curious what I don't think.

I don't think salaries have even been released yet, which is a little surprising. I think usually comes in a little earlier. But yeah. Yeah. So it's bears at lions, Raiders at Dallas, bills at Saints. And then, you know, that's, you know, those are tricky. Yeah, Buffalo's favored by four and a half, 48 over under right now it shows.

Oh, four and a half isn't super high. It's not. Maybe, maybe those are up-to-date odds. Now is Kim Errigan? Yeah, is Kim Air going to play? I'm assuming he would. I'd assume, I'd assume he would. But yeah, it's like, are the, are the bills?

offense somewhat fraudulent. Like, you know, like I was saying before, you know, they beat one team at 500, 80% of Josh Allen's touchdown, something with that coming in the opponent's field position. And it's just like, yeah, crazy. And like the Saints are one of those teams that, you know, they can, they can hold their own against the best. They kind of play up or down to their opponent. What's going to happen with everybody just saw what Jonathan Taylor just did to the bill? and now you're going to have Camara at home. Right. You know what I mean?

So, you know, you're going to have Camara and, and Pollard as, you know, 50-something percent owned. You know, Montgomery against the Lions? Come on. Yeah, well, Montgomery bombed this last week. I mean, are people going to go back to him again? I mean, it's the Lions. I know it's the Lions, but it's the Lions at home on Thanksgiving.

It's different. And Swift, you know, Swift is kind of my boy. so I uh that's right that's right that's right so uh I think just like on a small slate like that it yeah Pollard would be mega chalk I think I would fade him but I would just know he's like one of the best on paper plays ever but if you can just full fade a you know a 70% own guy that just pushed you in such an amazing position yeah Gallup week I wonder if Cooper plays It'll be interesting to see if Cooper plays. I'm not sure what the protocol, but the COVID is with him.

So, watch to see. Right, right. I mean, and, you know, you have to, you have to legitimately consider Treyquan Smith, Adam Troutman, just because, you know, this, it's such a small slate. You know, those guys could, you know, they're not good players on paper. That could just be the entire difference between you winning. Yeah, and another thing, yeah, another thing I'll say, let me cut you off. The other thing I'll just mention, too, I think this is where I've seen, I've analyzed some

lineups in the past, once it's a short game slate, don't be afraid to play two tight ends. Typically, you don't, on a full main slate, don't be afraid to play too tight ends. So, you know, we're going to have Waller on the slate. We're going to have, you know, a couple other, you know, decent tight ends on the, on the slate. So don't, you know, on this kind of. roster build if people aren't doing it, you know, but anybody can fall in the end zone. Poor Jake having to write up the Lions receivers this week. Oh, God.

The Lions receivers who had positive yardage, there were only three this past week. T.J. Hawkinson, Amon-Ross, St. Brown, and Brock Wright, who like, I barely know who that is, and it's my job to know who everyone is. I don't know who that is. Yeah, exactly. Josh Reynolds, three targets. Combinda, one target. Khalif Raymond one target.

Like, I just hope Khalif Raymond breaks the slate. I mean, you know, everyone's at Thanksgiving dinner, miserable. I'm just like arguing with their family. It just ruins their day. No, I hope that doesn't happen. All right. Well, let's look at the questions I got. I haven't really looked at it at all.

So we're going to answer these on the fly. All right. Brian Smith asks, if you are ahead in cash with James Connor on draft Kings, do you consider swapping out for Jacobs or Renfro after Kyler is ruled out? Says he went 50-50. No. So I get a bunch of questions about this because Johnny was like, yeah, you can't. play Connor if Kyler is ruled out. But he was saying that under the assumption, Chris Treveller

would be the starting quarterback and not Colt McCoy. I'm not sure why. I don't know if there's news or anything. But yet Treveller's a mobile quarterback. So it's kind of like the Cam Newton effect for CMC. I think with Kyler started with the move from Kyler to Colt McCoy, I think it's negative because you have fewer sustained drives, less offensive efficiency. see less scoring potential, but it's at least a little offset by the fact that Kyler is not going to be vulturing touchdowns with his legs. Colt McCoy is not going to do that. And Connor, I don't know if he's still leading the league in touchdowns.

Probably not, but he was a couple weeks ago. So that's my thoughts on that, especially if you're leading. Yeah, I think Jacobs or Renfro are significantly lesser plays. Do you have any thoughts? No, no, I don't. I think you nailed it perfectly. Adam Harstad, great, great friend of the show, asks, is it better to be loved but not respected or respected but not loved?

And I'll say, above all else, it is better to be feared. What is your answer? Be feared, poker player. You always want to be feared, period. Very Machiavellian of you. Yeah, I mean, just personally, I'd rather be respected, I think. I've been loved enough, you know. Disrespect, that just, like, it stings, you know, on a deep, deeper level.

Oh, of course. Like, I, the, like, there's a lot of people who love me, and I'm just like, oh, they're all right. But, you know, if I'm not respected by someone, I want no, no part of you in my. Yeah, 100%. Yeah, because I'm kidding around. I'm talking about poker. When you said, you know, want somebody to fear you. You want to fear me at the poker.

There's a poker. My poker instinct just took over. Do you think that works for you? Do you think that gives you an edge? 100%. What goes into that? You know, it's just like it throws them off their game. They're not making optimal decisions.

Yep, they fear you. Yeah, that's fear is basically respect. So then do you talk shit at the poker table? I feel like you should. No, no, no. No, no. I'm quiet. You know, I'm a pretty nice guy.

you know, I know, I just, it's just to play. It's almost like there'll be times where I'll, you know, I'd sit down at a poker table and there'd be somebody there. I'm like, oh, shit. I know, I, you know, I've got one or two players that I just like, I just can't. It's not like configure amounts. Like I have a hard time.

It's almost mentally where they've just, you know, done really well against me overall or I really, really respect their game. And if there's no edge with a, you know, one or two players that are, you know, really good. and I should, I'll change tables. So, you know, if people fear me, you can get away, we can get away with a lot more when somebody fears you, you know, when you're betting as an example, you know,

they're, you know, you can get away with murder against certain players. If that's, if that's, you know, how you feel that they, they think of you as an, you know, as far as that goes. Yeah, I always go back to that Falcons Patriot Super Bowl. And I think it's like really one of the greatest clips of all time, where the Falcons were up 31, 3. Maybe it was like 283 at this point. And one of the Falcons wide receivers is like, man, we got to, we got to score here.

Like you're up 25 points. You're like, we got to score. Like, I don't know, man, I'm feeling good. I don't know. Yeah, but man, this is, this is Tom Brady. This is Tom Brady. and like how many opposing defenses are scared of Tom Brady. Like that's real.

That's like that's a thing. Like that is just so badass. Like that was what cemented Tom Brady as the goat in my mind, which is crazy considering he's won, what, two more Super Bowl's. And so it just like, like what an absolute legend, like living legend, all time goat in any sport ever. but like that that's that's that's that's badass and like the way like you know larry bird used to be feared also an all-time great shit talker uh michael jordan too just awesome awesome yeah so definitely yeah well kind of i talk about yeah talks on the other right yeah but then again it can work on the other team's favor too

you know like i said to washington when tom brady actually came to town this is their super bowl so they got up for the game this is our super bowl let's beat john brady right right um all right the other questions kind of stung so so we'll breeze through this uh someone asked me if joe flacco's elite and i'll say elite enough to know to pepper elijah more the goat the targets and the last question from mike jones why do you why did you have to make me hesitant to play jonathan Taylor today with the bottom three matchup nonsense. Just say all in next time and leave it alone. L.O.L. Yeah. So again, I didn't write up Jonathan Taylor as a contrarian play. I wrote him up as one of the best plays on paper. One of only two running backs to pay up for. I mean, I paid lip

service to mix in and and chub and swift but i said really though like i wrote them up because like they're they're too good at plays not to write up but i said but like realistically what i'm doing is is taylor mcalfrey or i'm paying down and you know i talked about you know taylor now in this mat like the role we've always wanted the uber belcow role comparable it's probably somewhere probably McCaffrey, Henry, and him, and like that said in terms of this role. Kamara doesn't have it anymore without Drew Brees. Cook doesn't have it anymore without the passing down work. Zique doesn't have anymore without the, with Tony Pollard stealing like double-digit

touches. And, you know, leads all players and all positions in fantasy points per game since week four. the historically great offensive line, et cetera, et cetera. But I did end it with this, is the Colts are seven point underdogs. Buffalo ranks fourth best by schedule adjusted fantasy points per game allowed. Third best in rushing fantasy points per game allowed. Six best in receiving fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. So it is, yeah.

Yeah, I mean, it was a bottom three matchup on paper. the thing with Uber Belkows is that he can rise above it easily, especially if you're getting the passing down work. If you have like, I mean, if you're one of the best running backs ever, which I think Jonathan Taylor is, like a leap the second he stepped onto a football field. You have this amazing offensive line. You get this volume. You know, volume is what drives fantasy points at the running back position.

but again, you know, he was, what, 3% owned for a reason? Indianapolis was supposed to get trucked. So I don't know. I mean, at 3% own, must play. But like Johnny was saying all last night was he's 10 to 15% owned. He's only an okay player or he's maybe even a below average play. Just because you point to the biggest stuff, you point to the matchup stuff. And it could just be, you know, variance.

It could just be, hey, if you run out this game 100 times, if, you know, Indianapolis, Buffalo plays each other every single week for the next 100 weeks. How many times do the Colts actually win? Maybe this is just, you know, a five percentile outcome. And that's just kind of what fantasy is. It's just like getting lucky and or playing those edges. The one thing I did know about Taylor is he was one of only two players, two running backs with 40-point slate breaking upside. And that's how I wrote him up.

And guess what it hit? So, hey, if you played them, you want all the money. If you didn't. That's the other thing, too, is this is a really weird season and that it just keeps seemingly coming down to like three players every single week. When past weeks, it was not like this at all. and it's just three guys breaking the entire slate. And J.M. and I talked about this a lot, which was, this is a weird year. It's a tough year.

Vegas super weird tough year for betting. Very few pros I know who are consistently winning. I talked about Go Sixers Go, who is one of the few guys who's posted screenshots in like multiple weeks even. And I've talked to one pro is like, yeah, my confidence is shaken. Like, I don't know what's happening this year. I talked to another one who's retired for the rest of this, at least the rest of the year. Just, you know, super shook. And you just see it.

Like, who were the good teams in the NFL? Johnny tweeted out three different times this week. And all these upsets, you know, seven point favorites getting trumped and keeps happening. And it's weird. And it's, it sees along, especially a lot of variants with all the injuries and stuff like that. And DFS, we're seeing it too. I mean, there were injuries again this week to some key players. But you have any thoughts there? No, no, it's been, it's been a weird ear, and it always is. There'd be weeks that surprise you. Then it'll be weeks that, you know,

that everything's supposed to come together like it's supposed to be. And then there's always, it's just, I think, always having that hindsight and looking back and looking at your process and learning from the things that we're just, just talking about the A.J. Brown and the Brandon cooks. And unless Julio comes back, Henry comes back, I don't see any real reason that I pray, A.J. Brown. I mean, what's the difference now between A.J. Brown and somebody else who else had to discuss a long past.

Let's say Devonthe Smith, for an example. I'm sorry, I lost yet. You were glitching kind of out of control there. So I'm not sure if we recorded that. But, yeah, I'll just say, I mean, we're at an hour and 11 minutes, so we should wrap it up anyway. But I will just say, you know, for the rest of the week, I'm going to be daydreaming about building a time machine and going back in time

and putting in those Rogers' dubstacks, which I, you know, I was certainly close to landing on. I really liked. I thought about, text a jam about, tweeted about, with the Jefferson bringback, with Elijah, my guy, and Jonathan Taylor. who I wrote up. But I mean, we were close, and a lot of subs had some really good days. One sub, I don't know if I could pull it up in time, but was Jonathan Taylor away from winning the Millie, a few other subs smashed.

It was a good week for cash. And last year, for the first half of the season, it was like 50-50. And in the second half, it was 10 at 11 weeks, almost full. on smash, really hitting on guys. No one was on, you know, Brandon Ayyuk was super low-owned every single smash week. And we were all over him. Justin Herbert, too, a bunch of other guys like that. And so still holding out hope that this season is going to come to its senses and we're going to start printing money soon. But yeah, it has been a weird, it has been a weird year. But I mean, you've had success. I've had success. A lot of her subs have had success. So,

Darren, I'll just say thanks so much for coming on. I had a blast. Any parting thoughts? No, no. Listen, just thanks for all you do. And, you know, there's still quite a long time left in the season. If you haven't joined fantasy points yet, I would a thousand million percent get on board. And there's just so many tools.

And it's just made me a better player in the last couple of years. hands down and great discord group everybody's in there is you know very friendly I know in the past I've been in groups and it can get pretty ugly and people not there for the right reasons and every new group is super helpful Sunday morning is just like just like everybody kind of getting together having their coffee and talking about it we're all waiting for Scott to wake up about 11 1130 do his update so yeah we're kind of waiting for Scott to wake up waiting for Johnny's tidbits to last second thing, the cashing points, everything else. But the guys at fancy points are just amazing. And that's my passing points. I would definitely, definitely get on board

as soon as you can. Yeah, again, Thanksgiving Slate is one of the funest slates there is. A lot of money to be made. Johnny and I have posted some monster Thanksgiving wins. So subscribe. We have promo code. I don't remember what it is. So just hit me up on Twitter and I'll get it to you for some like massive percentage off. I mean, we're in week 12. So you're going to get a significant discount. Let's have some fun. Let's BS on Discord. Darren's going to help you out. I'm going to help you out. Graham's going to help you out. Tiny's going to help you out. Johnny's going to help you out. So thanks for listening. All the best to Jam. Hope he has a monster week as well. Miss him. Thanks for Darren.

Thanks to Darren for stepping in, and we'll see you guys all next week. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, wait, and review on your favorite platform, and come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.