Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Early Dynasty Rookie Positional Breakdown

Episode Date: February 24, 2022

Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) and Wes Huber (@WesHuberNFL) break down the incoming rookie RBs, WRs, and TEs for dynasty leagues. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Ladies and gentlemen, you are listening to the Fantasy Points podcast. I'm your host today, Scott Barrett, joined by Wes Huber, our dynasty, our draft guru over here at Fantasy Points, West Huber, formerly of Pro Football Focus. No one better in the space at breaking down tape, analyzing Devi prospects, analyzing rookie prospects. But, however, this is very early in my process.

I imagine for West, who grinds 60 hours of, you know, 60 hours. of tape per week during the dynasty off season. But just for me, I really think maybe the best thing I do, at least in comparison to the field and comparison to the rest of the industry, is I think my prospect model is freaking awesome. It takes me a ton of time. A lot of work goes into it, a lot of important tweaking, different things like that.

I have my pre-combine model. I have a post-combine model that then factors in, height, weight. BMI, athleticism. And then the final version of the model gets updated for draft capital, which is a very important variable. But like I said, I'm very, very early into my process, just a very rough draft. My model, there's specific players I need to make tweaks for, you know, if they only played four games in their final season due to injury, something of that nature, I'll have to tweak it. And, or, you know, they had the worst offensive line in football. It might be a tweak, just different.

different things like that. I usually incorporate strength of schedule. Haven't incorporated that to a massive degree yet, just a bunch of different things like that. So this is a very rough draft of my model, but that's where we're going to go over today. We're going to look at basically the rough draft of my running back, wide receiver, tight end model. We're going to talk to Wes, who is going to give us some information on all these guys, who he has, what he agrees with, what he doesn't, where he is sort of rough draft as well in terms of his evaluation, he still has to write up like basically every draft eligible running back, wide receiver, tight end and watch all the tape.

Is that right, Wes? Anything else you want to speak to? No, and I'm looking forward to this. I always do look forward to hearing what you have because, you know, you have a very unique approach to evaluating the prospects. And I like to hear it. I like to hear who you're high on, who your model likes, and, you know, kind of go back and forth on the player.

And then, you know, it sets a baseline for us. So when we get further along into the process, you know, we'll get closer to where we want to be before the draft. And this is just a really fun time. And I'm not going to write right up as thorough of articles, excuse me, draft profiles on the players this year because I want to get to more players. I want to I want to so I'm going to hit on the key points when I do get into it and I'm going to I'm going to try to take out some of the filler because you know I don't and and you know and I've gotten some feedback from the team and

you know from my my my five bosses great guys and and they're all telling me you know we it's it's good to know some of the background stuff but it's not going to help us with really the player evaluation so I'm going to avoid that this year I'm going to I'm going to really I'm really going to focus on what is going to make that player good in the NFL and, you know, and what we can expect, stuff like that. But, yeah, this is going to be fun. I'm more prepared with quarterbacks and wide receivers right now, haven't dug into the film. But data-wise, I'm good.

I've got everything I need for them to. And then I'm going to get into the running backs and the tight-ins so that when I do watch the film, I can start building some opinions and then go look at the data and say, okay, is it saying what I'm seeing on film? And then if it's not there, if I'm still missing some details, and I know I need to go back into the film and watch some more games. But, yeah, I just like to marry everything together. And hearing the results of your model, it's helpful towards that.

Yeah, I did just want to say, I actually loved your background on the various prospects. So maybe just hit on key points, but don't lose that. of that was invaluable in terms of feeding things into my model. Like Drake London, for instance, like he, what, he played basketball as a freshman at UCLA, or he was at least like a highly regarded basketball prospect, USC. And then he committed to football full time. Like, that's something where, okay, he didn't have an early breakout age, but it's more understandable. Yeah, yeah. He, when he came out of high school, he was, like, fighting to have, to have the ability to play both. And, and, and,

and he didn't go, he, he crossed some schools off the list that wouldn't allow him to play basketball. But then obviously, you know, he started, he started playing football. And they're like, dude, you've got it, you've got a future, you know. And he was like, okay, this is what I'm focusing on here. Right. So that's something definitely keeping your player blurbs because that helps me a lot. But yeah, let's, let's dive in. Let's start with the least sexy of the three flex eligibility.

positions and that's tight end, just a precursor. I'll kind of just give you what goes into this model, but I won't do it for the other positions. Just this one's a little more basic. And so the pre-combine model for tight ends is not as predictive as for running backs and wide receivers. And that speaks nothing of my model. It just speaks to the position. The tight-end position, athleticism, is far more important than for running backs and especially wide receivers. So that does more heavy lifting for this specific position. This model says strength of schedule, you know, level of competition is far less important than for the other position. So like there's frequently successful non-power five tight ends, but that is certainly not the case for wide receivers.

The model really penalizes small school wide receivers and I believe as it should. one of the variables best season yards for route run, another variable final season yards per game. There's a few more variables, but those are the two really doing the heavy lifting here. And so just again, rough draft of the model. My tight end one, a fairly high level prospect, a non-power five guy, but one who put up really impressive numbers. Not quite on Kyle Pitts level, but really not far off, especially in terms of recent tight-end prospects who've had some success. That's Shrey McBride. He had a 1,125 receiving yards in his final season. Only one touchdown. I don't know how that happens for a

tight end. Wes, what are your thoughts on Trey McBride as tight-end one? And And what are your thoughts on Tray McBride as a prospect? Okay, so I'm not, I don't, I have him more as like my 1B. I have Charlie Kohler ahead of him out of Iowa State. And I like his, I like, okay, so one thing to consider is Tray McBride, 8.7 air yards per target. Charlie Kohler, 10.5. Kohler's a, he's more of a threat deeper. And I think, I think his ceiling is higher in fantasy.

But that's not to take anything away from Rick Bride. I think he's got a lot of potential, and he's coming into the season here as the favorite here to be the first tied end off the board. And both of them, both of them have the ability to block. And I can make the argument for that's why athleticism seems to be more important at tied end. But yeah, I'm not going to get into all that, you know, as far as. as taking a stance type of thing. I think that both of these guys are clearly ahead of the pack here. But, you know, again, okay, so I've watched a lot of Iowa State games.

You know, we got Breeze Hall, Brock Purdy. He used to be at one time was a big time guy that everyone thought was going to, you know, do something. His star has died out some. But still, you know, I mean, Brees Hall has, like, scored touchdown every single game. I mean, there was a lot of draw to me watching. Iowa State. So I saw a lot of Charlie Kohler and I was just blown away when he was on the field, when he's healthy. I mean, he was a, he was such an impact player. And so much experience, too, he's older than McBride. But yeah, I mean, the offense there at Colorado State was, you know,

dink and dunk. And it's obviously, you know, like you said, strength of schedule, that's something that's going to have to be factor. But Trey McBride, he's got, he's already got all the attention. And that's, you know, 95% of the process here. Right. So Charlie Kohler, I'll say, is my tight end three right now. Very close of my tight end four, but he is my tight end three. Tighten two, another small school wide receiver, non-power five at least. Isaiah likely out of coastal Carolina.

2.99 yards per route run last year, really good. 7.2 receiving yards per game. What are your thoughts on Isaiah likely? You don't have him 1A or 1B. No, I like him. And 138 points. What's that? A stupid joke.

Yeah, I like likely him. Yeah, I have him as tied in four. But you know what? I wouldn't make an argument for him as tied in three. I have Jalen Watermeier above him. He had a messed up year. The year before, scored a ton of touchdowns. Um, yeah, he, he, he was working with Kellamond.

And, uh, yeah, he had a, he had a really good year. Probably should have come out. I, I'm, I'm wondering if, if he regrets that. Um, but yeah, yeah, he messed up his thumb, a really bad cut during the off season. And, uh, had to have some like, like muscle surgery and stuff on his, on his hand, on his thumb. And, and just wasn't the same player, um, uh, you know, obviously didn't play as much, miss some games. And then, but yeah, I really, I was, I was really impressed by likely 138.6 targeted passer rating this past year. I mean, that's just, that's ridiculous.

It was, yeah, I mean, Rucker 1, 105.6, but Watermeyer, McBride, and and Kohler were all below 100. And here's Isaiah likely 138.6. I mean, this guy was just, he was an efficiency machine. And, and, you know, he didn't come out this year, but man, the quarterback at Coast Carolina, we don't need to go into him, but he's going to be somebody we're talking about next year. So, I mean, you know, likely had a, he had a good quarterback getting in the ball. And, yeah, so he's definitely in the argument here in the top three, no question. I love it. Two, a group of five tied ins here just drawing serious NFL attention. I love it.

But again, the model really does say level of competition is far less important for the tight end position. And we've seen a number of successful tight ends come out who did not have that pedigree. I didn't even mention it. 6.9 yards after the catch per reception. That's ridiculous. Wow. This guy. Yeah.

The word on the street is like he's very raw. It's going to take him a couple of years to break out. but could be a high-level pass-catching tight-end one that's Isaiah likely we're talking about. But moving over to Jalen Weidermeyer, a prospect who my model does not like. I mean, he had at least basically 450 receiving yards every single season, even as a true freshman, but a season high of 515, you talked about some of the complicating factors that went into that and why. but my model, you know, it looks at some players, so there are some players my model really liked and clearly missed on.

And when they're from the same team and from the same coaching staff, that's a red flag to me. Like my model for some reason always overrates Mike Leach running backs. So I've just learned to bump down Mike Leach running backs and it's been successful for me. So on this point, Jay Sternberger, He had 836 receiving yards in his final season. Contrast that to Widermeyer's 515, way better yards for a route run. But it was with Jimbo Fisher in both seasons.

And obviously, Sternberger hasn't panned out in the NFL. So that is a concern for me. And we'll talk about that with the UCLA tight end in a minute. Any other thoughts there? Yeah, you know, Watermeier, he's a little different, though. He's not a Sternberger type player. And when I was writing him up for the draft guide last year, he doesn't, he doesn't really like jump off the page because a lot of his value is as a blocker. And, you know, he's he's more of a traditional tight end.

And, you know, so he's not, he doesn't really fit the mold of the McBride, Kohler and likely, you know, the guys that are that, that really like to get downfield. So, you know, he's a different type of player. And so he's not going to be the flavor for everybody. But I think he's going to end up starting in the NFL. And so, you know, he's somebody that we're going to be, you know, hearing a lot about just because of that. And, you know, he's a different type of player. He scores a lot of touchdowns. So he's not going to put up big yardage, though, or big reception totals.

Okay, so just to recap, my rough draft model. One, Tray McBride, two, Isaiah likely. Three, your guide show Charlie Kohler. And number four, tight end four, would be Greg Dulcich out of UCLA. I believe a walk-on. And a favorite of Danny Kelly, good friend of the show, good friend of me personally, is a huge fan of him. His numbers are actually better than Charlie Coney.

but part of the reason why he ranks behind him is what I was just speaking to. And that's that my model loved Caleb Wilson. Actually, my model's number one biggest miss was Caleb Wilson. So he had in the same coaching staff under Chip Kelly at UCLA in 2018, 965 yards in his final season. That's like 250 more than Dulcich, better yards for route run, better yards per game. he's another Power 5 tight end like Kolar and unlike the the first two we mentioned. But I mean, I watched tape on him just because Danny likes him so much.

And his tape looks dramatically different from Caleb Wilson. He's used on all three levels of the field, notably phenomenal deep ball tight end. He looks far more athletic than Caleb Wilson. Again, athleticism is a huge component to the tight end position. Where are you at on Greg Dulcich? So there's a big reason why your model likes him a lot more in Charlie Kohler is Greg Dulcich doesn't block. I mean, he's a joke.

Oh, yeah. That's a big. Yeah, but I mean, that's also what we want from tight end prospects, I believe. Like, I'm willing to, to, it makes things more boom or bust. But it's also like, it's more valuable. Like a guy is an amazing inline blocker. You don't get fantasy points for a successful block. So you want those.

hybrids you want those yeah yeah he's a he's a he's a he's a step away from a wide from being a wide receiver obviously too big for that but he's he's on the small side of tied in coler i mean i believe he's a two-time all-american um and one of the best blocking tight-ins in the country if not the best um and uh and there's no question that he's the best uh receiving and locking tight in in the country. But, you know, I don't want to sit here and just try to go on and on about Charlie Kohler. But, yeah, very different type of player. So, Dulchage, yeah, he's all offense and definitely no knock there, 12 yards, 12 air yards per target.

I mean, he was definitely the most dangerous receiving weapon there for UCLA and Chip Kelly. And, yeah, I mean, I'm not, I'm not ready to go all in on him yet because, yeah, it's, it's, he needs to land in the perfect situation. He's not a guy that's going to win over a coach, you know, with his work ethic, because he's going to want to play wide receiver, basically. So a coach is going to have to, like, he needs to get into a situation with, like, the Cardinals. But, you know, and even then, he's not going to be in them on their heavy packages.

He's going to be in. And he's only going to want to go in for a result. They're only going to want him to go in for their 10 and 11 personnel. And it's, he'll need the perfect situation because, you know, he's, like I said, he's on the small side, 20 pounds lighter than, than most of these other tight ends. He was a wide receiver in high school, right? Yeah. So, and that's common.

That's very common. You know, if you look at, yeah, like Brock Bowers, if you look at, Oh, my God, Brock Bowers. Oh, yeah. I mean, all wide receiver in high school, you know, but he was just so big. They had to move him to tight in. Maybe it's not, it's definitely going to stick, though. And, you know, so I like Dulcich.

You know, the crazy number here, though, Charlie Kohler is 61% in the slot and Dulcidge was at 39%. That's, that's ridiculous. But, yeah, he's definitely a deep all threat. And we'll see. We'll see. I'm interested in getting into the tape here because I'm a little blind just looking at numbers on these guys and going back to the games that I've seen. Yeah, it's funny you bring up Brock Bowers. Also, Michael Mayer is a really exciting prospect coming out next year.

But it's like I wrote up a thousand different times. Kyle Pitts is a once-in-a-generation prospect. And now Brock Browers is looking like probably better. And like, that's just so insane to even say something like that. I mean, again, athleticism is a big component. But, like, what he's doing is ridiculous. He's got a 42 inch vertical at his size. I mean, my goodness.

It's it's unheard of. Unheard of. It's ridiculous. So you brought up Arizona as a potential landing spot for Greg Dulcich. And I think that's interesting because Chip Kelly compared him favorably to Zach Ertz, one of his former tight ends in the NFL. You know, who knows how much that means anything. But this is what you want.

This is what you want for fantasy. You want the tight end, the wide receiver masquerading as a tight end or the tight end masquerading as a wide receiver or whatever. That's what you want for fantasy. There's more upside there, far more upside. But of course, there's also more risks than for, let's say, a colar who's going to be in line blocking at the very least and then can do. more than that. But as we've seen at the tight end position, all the value really comes at the top.

You want those high-end premium tight ends, you know, wide receiver basically who's running routes on 90 plus percent of the team's dropbacks and not blocking. So it's sort of a risk-reward thing there, or at least that's how I see it. And then just to put the bow on the tight-end position, there's a number of really small schools. So non-FBS, non-game of five, non-power-5 tight ends who look really interesting to me and my model. Again, level of competition is a little overrated for tight ends, but when you get to this level, much less so. Ryan Miller from Furman, a little exciting.

Garrett Prince from UAB, a little exciting. The guy I want to talk about real quick is Kamari Averitt, who is a gigantic POS of a human being. I think there were rape allegations. I think he, like, held a gun to his pregnant girlfriend, something like that. He didn't play football for maybe there was like a two-year gap with him playing football. So he is a much older prospect. He played at Bethune Cookman, really small school.

Before that, where was he? Nebraska. Louisville. But this could be like a Tyreek Hill situation. I'm not even sure if he's draft Eljol. I'm pretty sure, though. I know he wasn't invited to the combine, but neither was Tyreek Hill, where it's one of these scenarios where he's just like, teams don't want to touch him because of the character issues. But he's 6'6. He's 260 pounds.

On his tape is ridiculous. He looks like, I mean, he towers over everyone he's playing against. He was used like Mike Williams, like a true wide receiver, phenomenal deep threat. But he modeled his game after one of my all-time favorite tight ends, Jordan Reed. He looks like a bigger Jordan Reed. His tape is ridiculous. Again, it was against a small school. But he looks like a freak athlete.

So if you're in a super deep startup that has rookies, he's someone to keep an eye on. He's absolutely draft eligible. He was a sophomore back in 2018. Yeah. He's a couple of season. He was eligible last year if he wanted to be. I mean, he, yeah, he didn't play in 2019. He didn't play in 2020.

But I mean, my model just absolutely adores him. The numbers he put up was insane, even in factoring in the super weak level of competition. So let's move to a different position. Let's start talking running backs. The kind of word on the street is that this is a very weak running back class. And even if they don't totally agree with that, they'll just say, well, it's very deep and there's not much to get excited about at the top. And my model is basically saying, no, freeze hall is a high level prospect.

Kenneth Walker is a very exciting prospect, and it is deep in addition. I've seen some people on Twitter talk about how past catching involvement for running backs is massive, and my model doesn't really agree with that. There's just so many running backs who weren't involved as a pass catcher and then added that component to their game in the NFL. It's really just a scheme thing. Like Ladani and Tomlinson, I think did nothing as a pass catcher in college, and then right off at that was sort of, you know, Christian McCaffrey levels of the pass catcher.

So the only variable from the receiving side, my model weights highly is career receiving touchdowns. And that's about it. But yes, for me, as a drafter, I really want players with three-down potential, belcout potential. And my model does, you know, represent that, I think, to a pretty good degree. I will say I actually for running backs, I run two different models and I kind of average them out together to get my rankings right now just for the sake of time. I'm only looking at one. This is the model that incorporates receiving touchdowns.

But RB1 for me is Breeze Hall and Lance Zeerline comp him to Matt Forte. And, you know, if you're like me and only playing PPR leagues, that is extremely exciting. Yeah, I like Brees Hall. I think he's, I think he's in the argument, I think, you know,

and I mentioned to you before the show, he's got a, somewhere around 1,700 carries between high school and college. So, you know, they've definitely got their money's worth of Brees Hall.

And I don't know, I'm pretty sure he set the NCAA record for consecutive games with a rushing touchdown. And, um, You know, he, he wasn't a big yardage after contact guy, but, you know, he kills with volume. And, you know, we saw that with Najee Harris.

You know, you feed a guy with enough volume and they're going to eat. And so, yeah, he was, he was above the 1.0 yards per route run threshold as a receiver. And that's important. He was a quality receiver. You know, he wasn't one of the top. but, you know, I put him right there with Isaiah Spiller. And, um, oh, I just sorry to interject. Just, yeah, career yards for route run is actually another important, uh, receiving variable.

I've missed that for some. Yeah, yeah. And, yeah, so I mean, and Isaiah Spiller is not an elite receiver either. But, you know, just the guys that are good enough as receivers that, um, they will, they will definitely, they won't be taken off the field just because it's a, an obvious passing down. But, you know, of course, you always have your special. the guys that are really good as receivers.

But yeah, I think I think those are those two guys are really close. They're actually both definitely superior to Kenneth Walker. But the thing that Kenneth Walker, man, just this guy, he was unstoppable this past year. And I mean, almost four and a half yards after contact per attempt, just whoa. I mean, this guy was just ridiculous. I remember the Ohio State game. I mean, it's when he got hurt, but before he got hurt, he was, he was just so impressive with his ability to work through contact. And it wasn't a great game for him.

He obviously had big game. And then that was really the end of his season. After that, he wasn't, he was injured and, you know, didn't play as well. But, man, prior to that, I mean, he had, he had Michigan State fans, like, really excited. but yeah, Breeshall, man, he's, he's really good. These, these are going to be the three people, the three running backs that we're going to, that we're going to hear called first. But as like, as far as like, this isn't a deep class, I love 16 running backs in this class.

I mean, that doesn't say, that doesn't mean I'm going to draft, you know, 16 of these running backs, you know, right off the, right off the bat or anything. I'm not going to overpay for him. But, yeah, there's, there's 16 guys here that I think are going to have very long careers. and I mean, we are being gifted with restocking of the running back position. One of the deepest classes. Now, there's no Jonathan Taylor's, you know, there's no, you know, Naji Harris, per se. We'll see, we'll see, we'll see.

You've got some guys with potential, but I'm just really excited about this class. So moving to my RB2 would be, Kenneth Walker. And some of these players are tricky analysis, or it's a tricky analysis for various reasons. For him specifically, he was a transfer. And we haven't seen a lot of success from running backs who transferred, notably Tray Sermon. We brought up last year on the podcast. I was worried he ran away from Ramandre Stevenson, who was more efficient. Kishon Vaughn, who similarly to Walker didn't do much at his first school, I think it was Illinois, and then really came on. And so, yeah, Kenneth Walker is sort of the same thing, although his sophomore season

was pretty impressive by a yards per game, actually really impressive by a yards per game basis, and then really smashed at Michigan State upon transferring as a junior. And you could also argue that, like, things have changed now where it's not like the case where you have to sit out a year. So it's just like teams are really trying to attract these guys and it shouldn't be viewed as a knock. One knock is basically he did nothing as a receiver, but his rushing metrics are extremely impressive. What are your thoughts on Kenneth Walker? Oh, yeah. He's not going to be, he's not going to come over and, you know, and blow anybody away with his receiving ability.

It doesn't mean he can't improve. I mean, we saw that with Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan Taylor, man, I'll never forget. The first couple of years he was on the Wisconsin, he was on the Wisconsin campus. Man, he was letting balls hit him in the face mask, dropping balls left and right. He looked ridiculous. But, you know, he really buckled down and improved his last year there. And then obviously we know what he's done at Indianapolis.

No issues there. So it's definitely a possibility, especially if a team's going to commit the effort and the coaching to get that player up to speak. speed. So I'm really excited about him. He's definitely in the big three here. Probably going to see, these running backs come off the board. Third round, late second round is probably when we're going to see the Spillers, the halls, and the walkers. And then we'll see a lot of running backs come off after that. All right. Yeah. So let's talk about your guy, Isaiah Spiller. I think one model has him RB3. The other is a lot lower on him. Why don't you sell me your pitch on him?

Well, here's the thing. He's not even the best running back on his team. That's probably why the model didn't love him. Well, that don't take it that. Well, that other running backs, one of my top five Debbie guys. So he's ridiculous. Devin is Shane. But Isaiah Spiller, he's, he reminds me a lot of, okay, so, so, so, take Brees Hall, put Devin a Shane on the roster with him, and Brees Hall is splitting a workload evenly or in a similar capacity. That's how good Devin a Shane is. He's his next level stuff. He's ready to move on right now, but he's not eligible. So he came out, true freshman. And very first game, he played, ran for over 100 yards and, you know, in the SEC. So, you know,

That's something you've got to consider. These numbers aren't going to be up there. He's not going to score 20 touchdowns in the SEC with his schedule compared to Brees Hall going up against Texas Tech and Kansas and these scrub schools and scrub defensive schools that they don't even know what run defense is. So those numbers are going to be patted quite a bit out of the Big 12. and but yeah, Spiller, he's, he's, he's legit. He was big part of the reason why Texas A&M beat Alabama this year, this past year,

and he's good enough. He's good enough as a receiver right there with Breeshall, you know, and if, Brise Hall a little bit better, but still, it's good enough to, to stay on the field as a receiver. So, but, you know, we're not talking about guys that are going to work out of the slot. None of these three, Spiller, Walker, Hall, none of them are going to be guys that are going to line up in the slot as a receiver. So we're not talking elite receivers here. I'm talking about, but guys that can still come out of the backfield and catch the ball. Let's talk about another tricky guy to analyze and for similar reasons.

And that's Damien Pierce, who my model wasn't super high on. Again, I have two models. One is more efficiency-based. The other is more, let's say, workhorse potential, a lot of efficiency stuff. goes into that, but it's more accounting stats. And Lance Zeerline, he's a Lance Zeerline favorite. He's a Danny Kelly favorite. I watched this tape.

I really fell in love. This guy is hard to bring down. He runs with determination as if there's like a magnet in the end zone constantly pulling him forward. He shrugs off contact with ease. Just such a fun guy. There's like a great meme where it's like the sad guy on the bus saying like analyzes like hours of data.

and then the happy guy in the bus is like, he got a dog in him. And he's got a dog in him. Damien Pierce, so Lance the earline said, the fact that he didn't have twice as many touches is a legitimate fireable offense for the coaching staff there. And so if you take that presupposition,

it's true because it was true with Alvin Kamara. That was my one knock on him. I'm like, well, if he's so good and he looked awesome on tape, if he's so good, how come he was basically RB3 in a committee? You know, and the correct answer is just because the coaching staff is incompetent. So if you take that presupposition as true, you keep his efficiency metrics the same and you just double the touches. This is the RB2 in the class.

Obviously, right now he's a lot lower because you have to accept that pre-supposition is true. But he's someone I'm rooting for, and he's someone I do want to tweak, or or at least make the bulk case argument for when I write him up. What are your thoughts on Damien Pierce out of Florida? And by the way, we did see Florida for a long time keep the running back stuck in a frustrating committee. I think Michael P. Ryan was playing over many other running backs. He was more talented then, but similarly low touch totals. Well, so they had two running quarterbacks, and then they had Malik Davis,

who has the receiving ability. He'll have to play special teams. but has the receiving ability to stick in the NFL. But, okay, so here's the thing. They had two good, two extremely good young running backs on the roster, and they didn't even play him. So I wouldn't even call the rotation there in Florida a timeshare. It was just, you could make the argument.

The quarterbacks, Anthony Richardson, Emery Jones, they came in and ran the ball a lot. And that, you know, that was a factor. It was. and then Malik Davis, you know, getting his share, which he deserved. And, and, I mean, you got to, you got to consider that, too. Malik Davis was extremely good, is extremely good. I'm not really that excited about Damian Pierce. He was very efficient.

He had the best season of his career, 13 touchdowns. He, he caught everything that was thrown to him. And, you know, Danny Kelly, I think he's, I think he's big on a Florida player every year. So in the leagues that I'm in with him, I'll be glad when I see. see him draft Damian Pierce off the board. So, so, you know, it'll be one more spot that I can get closer to one of my other guys. It's, it's, he was, he was a good player. I'm just not, I'm not going, I'm not going crazy on him right now. But then again, I haven't watched a ton of tape on him. Just the games that I watched. And obviously, I'm not slowing the game down and looking at the

individual players when I'm just watching games during the season. So, you know, I don't want to, I don't want to jump the gun here. But, It wasn't a complete, it wasn't a time show. They had some guys on the bench that they had a guy come over to Marcus Bowman. He's a big time guy, man, five star running back from Clemson that transferred over. Transfer didn't even play, didn't even play for Clemson. He signed with Clemson and was like, yeah, he saw Travis Eton come back. So he was like, all right, I'm getting out of here, went over to Florida and didn't play this year at all.

So, I mean, he got a few carries. but really young too. And then they got Lorenzo Lindgard. He transferred over from Miami, another big four-star recruit. Neither of them played much. So, yeah, it wasn't even a situation where he had to give up those carries. So I guess I'll see. We'll see when I watch some tape on him.

But right now I'm not too awful excited because there's so many other guys. that are that are that I think are are superior in this class yeah so one of the key variables in my model is mistackles force per touch it's really the most predictive metric for analyzing potential prospects coming out of college and he was really elite in that regard last season he averaged a touchdown per 7.4 touches last season and again he's just a he's just a he's just a a guy rooting for, but yeah, maybe I should just stick to the model and say, hey, you know, he only had 100 carries and, you know, usually that happens for a reason. I will say against Georgia, he had 69 rushing yards on nine carries. That was the most they gave up all year. Also,

an interesting trade McBride stat. I forgot to mention. Against Toledo, he had 109 receiving yards and the team had 110 total of passing yards, just an crazy market share stat. But yeah, so let's talk about some of the running backs you are higher on. I think my model probably would have Brian Robinson as the next guy, but I have to double check that. And again, work through the other model and tweaks and things like that. So who would you have next?

Who are some of the players you're excited about? Well, you know, we want to get our multidimensional guys. And one of the guys is Kyron Williams out of Notre Dame. I was big on him. Last year, wrote him up for the draft guy, and I'm still big on him. He had a, you know, he's playing a very difficult schedule for Notre Dame. And, you know, he was just vital to their success. Of course, you know, mass exodus there and at a Notre Dame with,

with Brian Kelly out and then another guy that I love. So we got Kyron Williams, a little undersized. I think he's 5-8, about 200 pounds. So, you know, there is the concern that he just, he, he ends up more of a situational, you know, scat-back, a little bigger than a scat-back, but still somebody that, that may not end up taking a three-down roll. But here's a guy, Rashad White. This guy's huge, six-foot-two, six-foot-two, 210 pounds. man

My model loves him I'm hearing he's a UDFA so I didn't even mention it Whatever Whoever is saying that Just they really need to go back And watch some tape

This kid is the NFL All the way All the way No way Top five Top Okay so Kennedy Brooks So here's the thing

Kennedy Brooks I mean I wouldn't be surprised if it takes him five years to catch ten balls in the NFL. But he's like all the other Oklahoma running backs. He is the top gap scheme running back in this class. So he is going to fit. And he's going to take on, you know, 35, 40 percent. Carrie Cher is a rookie because of his gap, his patience, his footwork.

He's another Ramadre Stevenson type guy. this kid based on pure rushing ability is up there with anybody in the class. But he can't catch the ball. I mean, he's terrible. He's terrible as a receiver. And it's been that way his whole career. A guy that broke out this year and broke out in a big way was Abrams Smith. So really like him.

Of course, Brian Robinson. He's got all that experience. And that's important. Didn't fumble all year for Alabama. And he's, he was a big part of their, a big reason for their success, especially since they had so many injuries that running back. So I like him to. But, you know, he's, he's, he's my RB 9. Had Abram Smith right now as eight, Tyler Beatty out of Missouri.

This guy was, he was, he was typecast as a smaller scatback type, 5-8, 190, 94 pounds. But, you know, we're seeing teams that like to move a little faster. We're seeing them, you know, settle or be more inclined to give guys of Kyrim Williams and Tyler Beatty's size bigger roles than, you know, a decade ago. So there's opportunities there, and they're both elite receivers. So they'll have that for a long time. And then I like Asan Haskins out of Michigan. and he was, he's the reason that Michigan beat Ohio State could not stop him. And Ohio State's defense was playing on all cylinders at that point.

I mean, they were shutting people down on the run. They could not stop Asan Haskins. He was running through him, around him, just great running back that I think. And he's also, you know, he's above that one yard per route run threshold. And then I'll end it with, there's other guys I like. But the next guy is the last of like, I would say, the really excited tier. And that's James Cook, Dalvin's little brother. He's only 190 pounds right now.

But he was playing that more of a change of pace receiver role behind Zemir White. He was more of the thunder. He's got the frame to put on more weight. That's not going to be a problem. We'll see James Cook playing at around 210 pounds when he gets into an NFL weight room. So that's not going to be a problem, I don't think. So he was great for Georgia. He was the best running back for them during their championship run.

I really like him a lot. And obviously, he's got the pedigree. Yeah, I think my model has all these guys top 10 or damn near close in the class, at least. Again, I have to do a bunch of tweaks. One I assumed I would have to tweak was Rashad White. One of my models has an RB4. And then I saw Lance Zeerline had him outside at the top 15. running backs in the class. So I just assumed I had to tweak something or something was wrong

there. But that's, go ask, go ask John about Rashad White, all right? Yeah, I know. He was at the Senior Bowl. He's just figuring out what, what Devy people already knew. Go ask, Joe's a big Rashad White guy. Rashad White's the real deal. So there's a chip tranium. He was a five star on some outlets, you know, four to five star. I mean, big time running back recruit for Arizona State. He transferred over to Ohio State now, but the one of the main, everyone's transferred out of Arizona State right now. So it's really not that big of surprise. But I would say he's pretty unhappy because Rashad White, when he came in, I mean, he pretty much closed the door on Chip Traneum. And he was good too. He was efficient. Trinium was. But Rashad White, man, he's next

level. This guy is seriously right there with the top three. He just doesn't, he didn't, he doesn't have as much of a reputation as, as the big three in this class. So, but I'm really excited about him. You know, it's, it's, you know what it's like, Scott. We come into each class, and, and we just spend so much time looking at these players. And when we go out to draft our teams, we're like, wow, nobody's, nobody's even going after this guy, you know? And, and you just love scooping them up. So, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, you just love scooping them up. So. So. So. And. And that's going to be a guy like Rashab White. This guy is going to, this guy's going to, he's going to be a difference maker.

He's a problem. All right. Well, let's move to the wide receiver position. Everyone's favorite position, the more exciting one, when we're talking prospects, and especially for this class, which looks really good to me. So I assumed I was, the model was going to love Traylon Burks as like a very high level prospect. Just because coming into the season, my model said he was either he was the best prospect in this class. And then what did he do this past year? He had four times as many

receiving yards, six times as many touchdowns as the next closest receiver on his team. He's six three, two hundred twenty five pounds, hyper athlete. And man, yeah. So he's he did really well on my model. really like him, really exciting prospect by the tape, at least according to me, but I'm no tape guy. What are your thoughts on Traylon Burks? Okay, so this is where I can really get, I can really open up because I've collected all the data. And then on top of that, I've pulled all of the information out that I would if I were writing up, say, an advanced matchups. and just looking at the strengths, looking at the weaknesses, and then also factoring in what I know about their athleticism,

what I see with the size. And so, yeah, six foot three, I haven't at 232 pounds. It might be a previous weight with some baby fat. But kids got some tree trunks for legs. I mean, he screams, cover one, growth. And he's also going to be a problem for cover two. In a cover two, you're going to try to jam the receiver at the line. But here's the thing.

He's a lot of people that I've seen have him listed as a perimeter guy. He's not a perimeter guy. He's a slot receiver. That's where he's done all of his work. That's where he's going to play in the NFL. Well, last year he was slot. Wasn't he in the outside the year before that? No, he's always been slot.

That's where they keep him. That's where he's been most comfortable. His numbers are better there. But, you know, he had, so I say that his frame screams cover one. growth because he's not quite there yet. So he's got some work to do against man coverage. And he's got some work to do, to be honest, against cover two and cover three. His size, he should be beating cover one and cover two right now. But then again, he's in the SEC. So, you know, that's obviously a factor because, you know, you're going up against some of the

best corners in the world. But, you know, then again, we're talking about a guy that is, as some considered to be the top wide receiver on the board. You know, he was 20. He scored the 22nd most fantasy points per route against cover 1. The 42nd most against cover 2. He had a 48% decline to his fantasy point, overall fantasy point average against cover 2. And it's just so difficult to understand. But so as for the cover 1, he did post the 13th most yards per route run. I'm talking about it in the class here.

And then against cover 3, 34th most fantasy points per route. So we're looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of like 65 receivers here that are eligible that I have listed. I always find a couple extra I didn't realize had declared, but that's where I'm looking at right now. But he's the kind of guy that is a specialist for the four more deep defensive back schemes against cover four second most fantasy points per out, 48% increase to his average, which is the second highest clip there as well. seventh most yards per target. So this is a great one here. So against cover four on 21% of routes, 29% of receptions, 27% of yardage and 39% of touchdowns. If he were to somehow get on to the Buffalo roster with Josh Allen, who's the best cover four quarterback in the NFL, oh man,

we're talking some earth-shaking stuff there. And then against cover 16th, 12th most, so those are the two four deeper more. I like Traylon Burks. He's right now, let's see, I have him as my wide receiver five. And I know that's crazy, but that doesn't mean I'm not, I'm saying he's not a first round wide receiver. He is. I just, you know, so we're in the day and age where the NFL, it's shifting away from the pro style, the heavy packages of grinding the football. And We're going, we're spreading our offenses out. We saw the giants bringing over Brian Dayball. They're moving into the 21st century.

We're seeing that with more teams. All of the coaches that were fired came from offenses that utilized a low rate of 10 and 11 personnel and low rates of RPO and read option systems. You've got it. These teams, there's no choice anymore. You either change or you're going to continue to fall below the curve. And that's what we're looking at. So we're going to see there's just so much of a need for wide receivers. Would not be surprised if somewhere around 13 wide receivers are drafted in the first two rounds of this draft.

Yeah. So I don't know. I feel good about Traylon Burks as wide receiver one. Lance Zierline compared him to like a faster, more athletic, AJ Brown, which is like so crazy. That's his wide receiver one. That's the most ridiculous comparison I've ever heard in my life. From a size, from a size comparison, sure, completely different positions, completely different players. Well, AJ Brown was slot in college.

What's that? AJ Brown was slot in college. But AJ Brown is not slot now. There's no chancellor moving Treelon Burks outside. His numbers just, I don't have the numbers. I think he said A.J. Brown with more wiggle. I think that was his player account. Okay.

But yeah, that's like comparing Amman St. Brown to Antonio Brown. Just because there's similar size, there's something. That just doesn't make any sense to me. That doesn't make any sense. Well, I was just going to say he's not the unanimous wide receiver one, not at all within the industry. But to me, that just felt like shiny new toy syndrome. Whereas like as a guy who like doesn't watch a lot of college football until after the season and going back and watching the tape and then, you know, retroactively crunching the numbers. I feel like I do have something of an advantage where a lot of these guys like, Berks was basically the unanimous wide receiver one heading into the season.

And then somehow he's by many accounts, wide receiver three, wide receiver five. it just felt like they they weren't appropriately waiting how good he was early on. And then in his final year, he either met expectations or exceeded it. But, you know, one of these other guys really broke out. And then, oh, it's the shiny new toy. I'm all excited about this guy. No, he's my wide receiver one now. But, you know, I really trust your analysis and your film and data analysis.

So, you know, maybe he's just not. Maybe he's just not. Well, when I had, I can't remember where I had him. I think wide receiver two when I wrote him up in the draft guy, but I didn't expect Garrett Wilson to declare. I thought he would come back for one more year. And then also I didn't expect Jameson Williams to completely go freaking crazy for Alabama because, you know, he was with Ohio State when I wrote that up.

And then, you know, he transferred over Alabama. And before that, I mean, he wasn't even on my radar. And he was playing for, you know, Ohio State. So, I mean, I would have, you know, so he was, he was my wide receiver two then. But, you know, with Wilson, who's my wide receiver one? And then, and then with Jameson Williams, I mean, and Jameson has just been just ridiculous, you know, of course, towards ACL. But I still, I can't, I can't look past what this guy did. So I like Berks.

I think he's going to be a really good NFL player. I'm sorry. I'm not I'm not I'm not completely, you know, throwing out, yeah, my process here because because he's a, he's a big guy. I think he's got a lot of work to do. He's, you know, the numbers don't, the numbers don't speak to a guy that should be the first wide receiver off the board. He needs, he needs certain coverages on the field to do his best work. And that's not what I'm looking for with, with, you know, a top 10 pick. So, you know, Yeah, I don't think so. I like him. I do. I like him a lot. He's got a lot of intangibles. I think are really good that I think are going to translate. I just, I need to see a little bit more. And, you know, he's got a lot of work to do. So. All right. So I don't want to give away too much about my wide receiver model. I also don't want to give away the strict rankings just now. I have a really going to spend weeks and weeks with my model testing, different numbers, retest, them, looking for variables I might have missed.

But I will say the next year after Berks is Garrett Wilson, Jameson, Williams, Chris Olavet in no particular order. And then there was a name in there that really surprised me. And then there was a tier- I bet you I know who it is. And then there was a tear drop to Jahan Dotson and Drake London. And that's that. One of my other models really loves Justin Ross, the other does.

at all. I'm going to be a Justin Ross guy. Metchy is in that range, George Pickens, David Bell in that range. Who do you think the one guy is? Oh, you haven't said his name? No. Oh, I know who it is. It's Wondell Robinson. That's right. That's right. All right. But let's talk about that first here then. Let's talk about Garrett Wilson, Jameson, Chris Alave, and tell me the order you have it. Garrett Wilson's at the top because he's the cover one king. And, Can you explain to the listeners why that's so important to you? Oh, man. So you're either going to face man coverage, you're going to face zone coverage.

You're going to have a guy that's going to be assigned to you. You're going to have a guy that you're going to run your route through their zones. So in those situations and where the quarterback is going to spend a lot of his pre-snap and post-snap time is trying to determine if it is a man, if it's man coverage. And if it is, then he knows that it's an opportunity. And especially if he has a guy like Gary Wilson, well, you look at the top receivers in the league, and all of them are cover one beasts,

all of them. So if you just, if you just nitpicked and just went after cover one guys in your dynasty drafts, you have a higher chance of success. And that's completely without even looking at any zone guys. You don't even look at them. Now, that includes Traylon Burks.

You just look at your cover one beasts and you're going to succeed just following that. But, you know, we don't want to do that. We want to make sure that we look at everybody and evaluate everybody. And that would be a problem because Chris Olabe is a, he's his own guy. But that, you know, that doesn't mean that, you know, he doesn't have value. Heck, he has a lot of value. But Garrett Wilson, number one in the class in fantasy points per round. he had a 43% increase on his overall average against cover 1.

Second most yards per route run, which was a 53% spike, which was the highest. Third most yards per target, the highest targeted passer rating. And then so the reason I didn't think that he was going to declare this year is he had some issues against cover 2 and cover 6 with Justin Fields a couple years ago, and that doesn't make any sense. Because we saw Justin Fields this past year. He's a cover six beast. And Garrett Wilson, he was just young. He had a lot to learn as far as his route running and how to defeat certain coverages. But man, he really made some improvements to the point where against cover six, coming into this draft,

he's got the fourth most fantasy points for dropback. He scored 17% of his touchdowns on 8% of his routes against cover six. He does need some work against cover three. You have the 22nd most fantasy points, not dropback, excuse me, per route. And, you know, so there's a little bit of work there, and that's the coverage he's going to see the most. But he is a monster, almost unguardable. And if you need any reminders to how athletic this kid is, look at some of the pictures of him catching the football. you'll see him jumping to the point where his feet are at the level of the defender's head.

This kid can jump like over an NFL pile. That's how athletic he used. The 2019 festival is a great video to watch. Yeah, I mean, just ridiculous athleticism. Like if he was a cornerback, he'd be the first player off the board. It's just ridiculous how. how athletic he is. So, yeah, I was bigger.

I was higher on Chris Olabe coming, you know, coming into this year, but that all changed this year. Garrett Wilson was, I mean, he's not Jackson Smith and jig, but we're not even talking about the best that Ohio State has at wide receiver. But Garrett Wilson, man, he's the cover one king. There is no question. So Garrett Wilson is your wide receiver one. Who is your wide receiver two?

It's Chris Lop. So, you know, cover one may not be his top strength, but it's far from his weakness. He scored the 12th most fantasy points per route, third highest targeted pass rating, but the top zone specialist in the class. Plus, if you're going to look at his athleticism coming out of high school, yeah, I wouldn't do it. I don't know what's going on with the number that he posted. I mean, this kid's going to post a 4-3 at the Combine. And I think he's listed at like a 4-6.

coming out of high school. I don't know what is up with that. But yeah, fifth most fantasy points per route against cover three. Third most fantasy points for route against cover four. Six most fantasy points per route against cover six. This kid knows how to destroy zone coverage. He knows all the routes. He knows all the weaknesses. He knows how to split the safeties.

He's just a massive, massive, massive, problem. And the thing that's most exciting about this class is, is the level of, of perimeter receivers that are coming in. It's just like, what is this now? Three years in a row where we've been gifted with like these phenomenal wide receiver classes. And this one's special because, yeah, we had, we had Jamar Chase. But really, Devonte Smith, he plays on the outside. I'd actually like him if he kicked insides in the slot. That's where he put up his big numbers at Alabama. I think he would be a better slot receiver. And then we saw Waddle. Waddle just went ballistic. And then we saw Amon Ross St. Brown. It was a really big slot class

last year. And then we had- And Elijah Moore was a slot guy who he kicked outside. But he played a lot on the outside. That was a little surprising. I know he could. I knew he could. But I was surprised he played as much as he did. But it was more, you know, more of the slot guy and like more of an undersized outside receiver type of class. This is the opposite. This class is different. This is a perimeter class. And then you have Traylon Burks. So what I'm hearing on Chris Olive is that he projects as a slot only. He is a small frame.

He's not very strong. So he's not going to be a huge possession, PPR sheet code type guy. Very high floor, very low ceiling. And that makes me want to draft James and Williams above him. But the counter argument to that is like if James and Williams, was so good. How come he only had 15 catches at Ohio State, how to flee the program,

because Jackson Smith and Jigba, who, I mean, my goodness, he posted it Chase-like year. My model's going to fall in love with him. Chris Olavet, you can say, he's a slack guy, so maybe they weren't direct competition, but then Garrett Wilson.

But, I mean, you have Garrett Wilson one. You have Chris Olavet, too. So is it James and Williams three? And what are your thoughts on him? No, okay, so the ACL recovery is a big problem for me. For who? For Olave or for? No, no, no.

For Jameson Williams. He tore his ACL in the championship game. OLAVe too, right? No. No. He didn't even play. Wilson and Olave sat out the bowl game. They didn't even play for, they were getting ready for the draft.

Who am I thinking of? Because there's a few guys. John Mechie. John Metchie tore his ACL in the SEC championship of both of those games against Georgia. So I'm curious, where are you getting this draft profile on Alave from saying that he's got an extremely low floor in the slot only? Is this Lance Zerline again?

It might be. Oh, wow. This guy's, he's having a bad draft. I'm sorry, but I, I, a lave is the, I mean, can he play in the slot? Yeah, sure. But he's got four three speed. You watch. Yeah.

He will play on the outside. There's no question. Strength. Are you seriously going to talk about strength with the Lave? When we just saw Devante Smith drafted, what was he, the 10th pick? I mean, this is ridiculous. This is the most ridiculous information between this and then saying that Traylon Burks is A.J. Brown. No, the next guy on my list is Jahan Dotson.

And if Jameson Williams was 100% healthy, I think he would be my wide receiver too. Yeah. So I think that's what you should take. I think you should stick with that because the ACL isn't going to be a concern long term. And then from a dynasty perspective, like what does it do? It's just, okay, he's going to be slow to start the rookie season, missing training camp, maybe return week eight and then be eased in, not. do much so that the production isn't as high as for some other wide receivers. So maybe he's

cheaper in year two. But like, I mean, me, like I always take such a long-term view that it really doesn't factor in at all. So I'm almost just totally ignoring the ACL. Well, here's what I'm worried about. I'm worried that Jameson Williams is going to fall out of the first round, you know, like the second pick of the second round or something. And he's not going to have that fifth year option on his contract. It just, it's the one concern that I do have. And, And, but, you know, say, so what I mean is, is let's say, let's say he falls out of the first round. He, he, you know, but a team falls in love with him. They want him.

But then, but then going into year four, he tears his ACL again. You know what I mean? And then, and then I'm not saying that's going to happen. I'm just like something I think about. But, you know, if, if, I feel good enough about Jahan Dotson, but at the same time, I kind of, I kind of like what you say, what you're saying there because you're kind of talking me off the ledge. of bumping him down there. And because I do, I would like him more than Jahan Dotson, if not for that. And I would probably have him, my wide receiver too, maybe like 2A, 2B with a lave.

So maybe I, maybe I will follow your advice there because I think it's, I think it's a sound way to look at, at an ACL injury. The ACL injury for METC concerns me more because his numbers aren't as impressive. You know what I, by the way, Lance Zeerline is like one of the best in the industry. big fan of his. I think I was mixing up Olavé with Mechie because Lance had Olbe with Lange's 4 and compared him to Terry McLaurin. So that makes sense. Okay, Lance

Sirlein, I apologize. You're not listening to me. I'm a nobody. But I take that back. If that's the case, then just saying, just making a lazy comp isn't a reason for ridicule. So I'll take that. Yeah, I will say that outside of FantasyPoints.com, which includes the great Greg Cassell, Lance Zeerline, Dane Brugler, and Daniel Jeremiah. Oh, and Mike Renner, best in the business. Always go out of my way to make sure. Oh, and Danny Kelly, of course, make sure I read all of the stuff. They're great. They put in the work. They put in the hours in terms of tape grinding.

So, Dawson. Yeah. So then it's... If you don't really penalize him too much for the ACL, then we're kind of in the same ballpark with that first tier. I have Burke's wide receiver one. You have a little lower, but then it's Garrett Wilson, Jameson, Williams, Chris Olive, in that next tier. And then you said you had Jahan Dotson, who's the next guy for me.

And then for me, ignoring the one guy who keeps popping to my surprise is Drake London, who I'm probably not going to love. He's a 6-5 freak, amazing contested catch receiver. But I personally hate contested catch receivers. And a player who excels at contested catches in college, that's not something predictive. In fact, it's negatively predicted.

Like you want separators in college. You don't want contested catch guys. But you want the crazy thing about Drake London? Yeah. You know how they kicked Amon Rae St. Brown to the outside his last year at USC. They played Drake London in the slot. He's actually, he's a crossing route guy. He does a lot of that.

I know it doesn't fit with his size. Neither did playing a lot out of the slot. But, you know, we see Terrace Marshall. He did it at LSU and he continues to do it for Carolina. I don't know why. I mean, it was a rough rookie year for terrorists. It was a rough rookie year, absolutely. But yeah, the numbers aren't as crazy for Drake London.

But that's the other thing is plan for USC. He's, he had to, you know, take his lumps like the other receivers where he wasn't featured ahead of guys like Michael Pittman. And then Amman Ra and then they also had, shoot, I can't remember his name, the guy that. Tyler Vaugh. Yeah, Tyler Vaugh. And so, you know, he had to, you know, work his way up the rotation. It was just this last year that he was allowed to take over there. So, yeah, I mean, he doesn't, he's not, you know, we shouldn't really discount him right away,

because let's see him, let's see him at the combine. Let's see him run. Let's see what, let's see what type of speed he puts up. Because if he's got, you know, say, 4-4 speed at 6-4-2-10 or something, I mean, yeah, yeah, we'd have to reevaluate, but I'm not, I'm not, he's, he's not in the top tier for me. He's, he's outside. I'm, I have the, the five guys there with Wilson Olivae, Williams, Dotson, and Burks. And then I get down into my London, Robinson, um, and, you know, other guys that I, that I really like here in the second tier. I'm going to ask the stupid question, if you don't mind. Uh, so former basketball guys,

six five uh what about converting him to tight end yeah he's only 210 pounds you know so um i mean he would he's on the lighter side of of you know like a chase chase claypole could have done it yeah um you know he's big enough he's a what is he 225 so um wouldn't be it wouldn't be an issue for him to put on 10 pounds but he'd have to put on drakeland is going to put on 25 pounds at receiver. He would lose a lot of speed, but you know what? You're right. I mean, if he did it and he was able to do it without, without, you know, adding the bad weight, then yeah.

I mean, but I don't think it's going to happen. Not after what he did this past year. Man, he was the most, I mean, he controlled college fantasy. And it was, it was ridiculous with the numbers he was putting up. So my small school model says there are a number of really attractive small school wide receivers in this class. Jalen Tolbert out of South Alabama, Christian Watson, Sky Moore. But again, my model really does not like small school wide receivers. So we're not really going to talk about them here.

But I'm sure Wes is going to have a player profile and I'll bring it up in my model. Let's talk about the guy who surprised me. model really loves really young guy, great yards for route run, really good yardage market share, 46% in his final season or best season. Wondale Robinson, you know, it's the new trendy thing. Every year there's a Tyreek Hill comp and that player sucks because there's only one Tyreek Hill. This year there's a bunch of Debo Samuel comps, but he's like the closest one.

He doesn't have the size, but he is used as that sort of like slot wide receiver plus gadget. And again, the model freaking loves him. So what are your thoughts on Wondale Robinson? I hate hearing you bring him up because he's my top sleeper in this class. That's a good sign. Yeah. So he's, you know,

let's scrap the Tyree kill stuff. And I'm going to say he's my Elijah Moore of this class. And like I said, he was, he's somebody that I want to pick up in like every draft. Cover one, second most fantasy points per route. And that

I've already, you know, really gone into that to how important that is. At third most yards for route run against cover one, second highest targeted pass rating. On 16% of his routes, he scored 50% of his touchdowns against cover one. You can't guard the kid with man to man. It doesn't work. No signs of weakness. 15th most fantasy points per route against cover two. Ninth most against cover three.

26 most against cover four. I mean, you know, we could say that was a weakness, but he didn't, he just, he didn't run a whole lot of routes against cover four. Third most, third most fantasy points against, excuse me, against cover six. The one thing that, that I, if I'm going to, if I'm going to nitpick on him is, is, is he, he needs to work on how to, on how to score, how to set him up, set himself up to score against zone. Not in real football, no, because, you know, he doesn't have to score all the touchdowns to be the, to be a big help to his team. But it would skyrocket his numbers if he found a way to score. Zero touchdowns against cover two, zero touchdowns against cover four, zero touchdowns against cover six in his career.

But that just really speaks to the receptions and yardage totals that he put up against those coverages that he's ranked so high in this class. And this class is stacked. So that's important. But man, to see a slot guy, with the second most fantasy points per route against cover one, that's Elijah Moore all the way, all the way. That no, I'm on Ron St. Brown, he didn't do that.

No, he was a zone, he's a zone guy. But Wondale is a guy that we're going to be able to go after against, you know, the cover one heavy defenses. And that's so rare as a slot receiver to the point where it'll, it'll allow him to run routes on the outside if his team, wants him to because you know that you have a higher higher chance of being manned up on the outside and so um he you know he's obviously undersized but he's he's lightning fast i said last year about elijah i know you loved him too i don't want to steal all the thunder away from you about

elijah more but um yeah lightning in a bottle i mean that just just just whatever the guy wants to do he can do yeah uh wando robinson i'll just add as another transfer which some somewhat complicates things. He was used far more as a runner at Nebraska than where he transferred to as a junior, which is Kentucky. And that's not something that goes into my model for wide receivers rushing production, but it is something I always add as like a boost, a bonus. Wide receivers who are used as a runner, it's a really positive indicator of future success. You saw that with like so many prospects over the years like Antonio Brown. Too much is like almost a red flag. And so much is like almost a red flag. like a Levisca Chanel.

No, it was. He was there starting running back at Nebraska. And then he kept getting banged. He's just not that. He's not big enough for that position. Right. But when he was at Kentucky, they still ran with him, but they used him more as a gadget. So, yeah, I think that's more what he's built for.

Seven carries 111 rushing yards this past year. And yeah, it's just like a positive indicator of surplus. talent. You know, you're hyper athletic. We want to get the ball in your hands, things of that nature. I want to talk about David Bell, George Pickens, and me personally, Justin Ross. Is there any other sleeper you want to hit on quickly? No, the, you know, I'm really intrigued to take a look at, shoot, what's, Jarrah Stearns out of Western Kentucky. He's got some, I know the Bailey Zab. I forgot to mention him, yeah.

Yeah, I mean, it may all just be gimmick. But I do want to take, I do want to take you look. He was top 10 in fantasy points per route against cover one, cover two, cover six. So, you know, that's impressive. I want to check him out. So that's one guy. But you're hitting on all my sleepers here with Wondale. And then I think Justin Ross, I mean, we'd be talking about Justin Ross as a top five wide receiver.

in the class, if not for that back injury. I mean, that's the year where he blew up against Alabama and the championship, I mean, and his numbers are just ridiculous. Top 15 against all five of the most common coverage schemes. So he's somebody that is definitely standing out for me. And then, you know, obviously, I want to look at the film. And then another thing is I'm adding, I'm looking a lot more in just separating the red zone and looking at what they're doing just inside the red zone.

And that's going to be something I look at a lot this year. So I've already done that with the quarterbacks, but that's not what we're looking at right now. So, yeah. Yeah, I forgot to mention Jarrett Stearns. Actually, I think my non-power-5 wide receiver model likes him the most out of anyone. I mean, 150 catches, 1900 yards, 17 touchdowns. That's insane.

But who was the Western Kentucky? Deep threat. Everyone fell in love with maybe four years ago who never panned out. I know it's like a scheme thing with them. It'll come to me as soon as this podcast ends, I'm sure. Oh, yeah. That played at Cleveland, Tennessee. Yeah, I can't remember his name. I know exactly who you're talking about. I had a good game against Alabama. Yeah, I know who you're talking about. I just can't think of his name. Yeah, same. Well, do you want to make a case for George Pickens or David Bell? Yeah, so. Those numbers are insane. Like, your career yard for game elite, but never had like a truly, and, you know, produced immediately as a freshman competing against Ron Dale Moore.

Yeah, what are your thoughts on those guys? Yeah, I think, I think David Bell's going to fall into the second. I don't think he has a chance to go on the first. They're just the, it's a lot of volume, a lot of volume. And then, you know, we're talking about an air raid offense at Purdue. I like David Bell. That doesn't mean that we should sleep on him. I think, I think, you know, obviously a second round pick somebody that we're going to have attention for.

But George Pickens was my wide receiver one coming into prior to tearing his ACL during spring practices. And I think it's preventing him from drawing a lot of the attention that he deserves nearly unguardable versus man. So he fits my first checkbox, fourth most fantasy points per route. Absolute beast went off against Cincinnati last year in their bowl game. And they played a lot of man on him. And then he scored 50% of his touchdowns on 27% of routes against cover 1, 31% of reception, 6.3, 205 pounds. I think he has a lot of functional strength. If I were to hear that he was comp to A.J. Brown,

it would make a lot more sense to me. It's extremely difficult to jamming at the line of Skirm of Michigan's cover two. Six most fantasy points per route. That really, see, I think that the type of player that Traylon Burks is, his profile should be a lot more like George Pickens. But, you know, that's not what we have, but that's okay. And then he's dominant against cover three, and that's A.J. Brown all the way. 11th most fantasy points per route.

And that obviously goes nicely with his ability against cover 1. And then he's top 20 against cover 4 and cover 6. He's top 20 against all 5. So that ACL tear really held him back. And the thing about him, though, is he's a guy that's going to play on the outside. And he's so dangerous on the deep ball. He was targeted with the 12th most air yards for target against cover 1, the second most against cover 2, the 7th most against cover 3.

the seventh most against cover four, the fifth most against cover six. I mean, it's just ridiculous. Air yards all day. And so he's going to be a big time threat in the NFL. Somebody that, you know, I went a lot into looking at deep passing and the decline in scoring from that was a historical drop this year. And that's why I think this class is going to be really important to the NFL. So we're adding a lot of air yardage guys.

It's exciting. It's great for the NFL that we're adding a lot of guys that are going to help these teams put more aerial yardage on the field. By the way, the name that was escaping us, that was Taywan Taylor, who had 1,700 plus yards, 17 touchdowns in this final season at Western. Yeah, and I drafted him in Devy, and he flopped. And, yeah. Okay. So we'll end on this guy. Justin Ross, who's, I think, going to be one of my top flag plants.

And so, yeah, again, the great Lance Earline, he had a quote from an anonymous NFL scout who said, yeah, you really just have to throw out the entirety of the 2021 season with Justin Ross after he missed 2020 due to a spinal issue. But if the medicals check out, like, I really want to draft him. And I do think you have to throw out that 2021 season. For one thing, Clemson was an absolute mess. But for the other, he was dealing with a serious footer ankle injury throughout the entirety of the season, suffered in the preseason. He had surgery immediately after the season ended.

But then if you, so if that, if that's right, then why isn't he viewed as an elite talent? Because heading into 2020 before the spinal injury, he was the unanimous wide receiver one. He was in a lead prospect getting like Larry Fitzgerald comps. And so one of my models doesn't like him too much. The other loves him. What he was able to do as a freshman with Trevor Lawrence and all time, maybe the best yards per route run season by any wide receiver in PFF college history. And he did it as a true freshman.

So I like me some Justin Ross. How do you feel? Oh, I'm right there with you. He's my behind Juan Dale. He's, he's my other sleeper. And it's ridiculous that I can say that. Because, you know, the back injury, you take that away. And we're talking about him.

Like, he's one of the top receivers in the class. I mean, right up there with the opportunity to go in the top 12 picks or so. And, you know, in the back injury, it looks like it's okay. He hurt his ankle. And then we can't discount the fact that he went from Trevor Lawrence to, you know, a guy that I was, I thought was going to be a lot better. but, you know, we only had a couple of games to look at what he, you know, his development. And at that point, he looked really good.

And, DJ Eugalei, and, man, he had, like, one of the worst seasons for a guy that everyone thought was going to have a big season in the country. I mean, he just completely flopped. And it really hurt Justin Ross. It also hurt other receivers on the team. They had a lot of guys transfer away just to get away from Eugalee. And that's a shame, man. They show, there's a, I can't remember if it's underarmor or Max Prep's, or one of them, they have a video where Justin Fields and DJ Yugalealea are having a throwing competition.

See, you can throw the ball the furthest. Yulele is up throwing the ball 90 yards. I mean, it's ridiculous. It just, anybody can throw the ball further than Justin Fields is somebody that, you know, wow. But then again, he sucked, man. He sucked this year. Awful. He played better at the very end,

but there were certain times there where he was almost benched. And, you know, it didn't help Justin Ross that he came back and played there, played better at the very end because that's when Justin Ross was out. He's top 17 and fantasy points per route against all five. Thirdmost fantasy points per route against cover one. And I'm looking at his entire career here. He had a 47% increase to his overall average, or to his yards per route run, which is the highest.

Ninth most yards per target. He was big time, man. When he's healthy, he's big time talent. He beat an Alabama team that had a defense that was a lot different than the one that we saw this year, which was a good defense, but not as good in the secondary. When Justin Ross beat the Alabama secondary, They had like just a ridiculous defense on the field.

And he was just running right past him. I just, I can't discount that. I can't look past the season, his first two seasons with Clemson. I'm super excited. Well, his second season is when he got hurt. But, you know, before that, he played really well. So I'm a big time believer in Justin Ross here. Yeah, as a freshman, he averaged first.

4.98 yards per route run per PFF. It's the best ever in their database among power since, which is since 2014, among power five wide receivers, next closest. Devontas Smith in his final season, 4.39. I think fifth or sixth is C.D. Lam's final season, 3.99. So like a full point let, just like absolutely insane. So I love making upside wins, championships, picks in rookie drafts,

especially when you get to own a player for the totality of their career. So I'm willing, I have a much higher risk tolerance than the average player. And yeah, the bull case argument with the Justin Ross is so easy. And it's not really priced in. Like people are just writing them off as dead. Yeah. So hopefully the medicals check out, but I really like me some Justin Ross. Yeah, I feel like it's the Pickens and Justin Ross thing.

I feel like we're going to be able to get him at a discount because of their injuries. And they, you know, they didn't have. great years this past year. And then I love that people have just completely overlooked Wondale. I hate hearing that you're not, but, you know, it's, it's like this kid was legit. And he made, he did it. He looked good doing it too, man. He was, and it's not because I live in Kentucky. I'm not even, I like Kentucky. Don't get me wrong. It's my alma mater. But I'm not a, I'm not a, a Kentucky fan at heart. So it's got nothing to do with that, you know. But man, I love some Wondale Robinson. But, yeah, we.

cannot sleep on pickings and uh and justin ross here but the good news is is we don't have to go out there and use our our first pick to get them you know um we can get them later maybe even with you know a third or fourth pick especially with with ross i just love it yeah i i mean i might be pounding the table for ross in a late first round depending on uh on how everything checks out but but you but you don't want to have to take no of course of course not of course not yeah hopefully Hopefully people don't wise up, but, you know, typically they tend to. So again, folks at home, I think my prospect model and all the content that comes from that is some of the best stuff I do.

I think it's going to give you a massive edge for Dynasty. And even if you just like, you know, the NFL or even redraft, helps in redraft. And knowing more about the prospects, I think what Wes does with his player prospect articles, some of the best in the space, super in depth, comes off of, you know, hours and hours of work and film watching and high-level data analysis. So check that out. All of that comes free with a fantasy point subscription. And then if you want to purchase the Greg Casell draft guide, which is very similar, but not from a fantasy perspective. You can do that as well for cheap.

And yeah, thanks for listening. Wes, anything to add before we go? The only thing I want to add is just that. You know, and I hope I'm not doing anything wrong by mentioning this. I don't know if we've made the announcement yet. So if you're hearing this, maybe you'll be some of the first, but we'll be coming out with a college product this year. And then also it's going to have Debbie stuff.

And I'm real excited about that. And if you've never played in a college or a Debbie League, this would be a great time because it's going to be me, Kevin Coleman, Josh Chivalier. And, I mean, we're going to really give a lot of college and Debbie content this year. I'm really excited that it's something that I'm going to be able to work on during the week of the NFL season. Of course, I'll be doing all of my NFL stuff as well. But it's just really exciting because I love college football so much.

And it really, really gets me up out of bed. I get real excited when I get to work on some college, to mix in some college football into my NFL. work. It just, it gets me really excited. So I'm really excited to share that with everybody. And, and I really hope that you, you take part. Yeah, Wes is the best in the business when it comes to Devy and college football DFS. And he's clearly really passionate about it. Definitely give that a look, especially if you're a Devy guy, you're big into college football. Really excited about what our company and website is doing this year. So I really hope you'd be a part of it and take advantage of our very steep discount we're currently offering, but expiring soon. Thanks everyone for listening.

We'll do some more dynasty rookie content over the next few weeks. So make sure you check that out as well. And thank you for listening. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint. com.