Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Franchise Focus: Buffalo Bills

Episode Date: July 26, 2022

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) invites Locked on Bills & The Draft Network's Joe Marino (@TheJoeMarino) to discuss the upcoming season for the Buffalo Bills. The Franchise Focus Podcast series is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy (@UnderdogFantasy). New users can sign up to Underdog using promo code FANTASYPTS for up to $100 in bonus cash on their first deposit. Visit fantasypoints.com/underdog for more info. The podcast series is also sponsored by Evan's Sports Cards & Collectibles (@evanscards). Follow @EvansCards on Twitter for weekly updates and card releases, Like on Facebook, and head to evanssportsnj.com for more info, including the always-updated eBay store. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. In the final week of the franchise focus podcast series here at FantasyPoint.com, my name is Joe Dolan, and I am glad to be welcoming in another Joe today. His name is Joe Marino. He's going to talk Buffalo Bills. And look, if you want information on the Buffalo Bills, you want Joe Marino. He is the NFL draft analyst for the Draft Network and the host of the Locked-on Bill's podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at Joe, the Joe Marino, at the Joe Marino, not a Joe Marino.

No, not generic. He is the Joe Marino. Joe, welcome to the podcast. Thanks for talking bills with us today. Hey, it's good to be on with you. Thanks for having me. The franchise focus series. a podcast here at fantasy points.com is brought to you by Evans sports cards and collectibles,

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That's EvansportsNJ.com online and at Evans Cards on Twitter and tell them that the guys from fantasy points.com send you. All right, Joe, let's start with the bill. Look, we know the bills are going to score points. We know they're going to score a lot of points this year, barring some. something catastrophic happening to Josh Allen. But on a macro level, with Brian Dable moving on to the Giants and Ken Dorsey coming in as the offensive coordinator, do you anticipate any changes to the way this offense operates to

the way this offense looks with Ken Dorsey at the helm? Yeah, I think absolutely that'll be the case. And when you consider there is some carryover, right? Ken Dorsey, the quarterback's coach for the bills, the previous three seasons, he was Josh Allen's top choice to be Brian Dable's successor. And so you like those dynamics, but I do fully expect for him to put his own fingerprints on this operation, right? This is his big chance to run an NFL offense. It's a great opportunity for him to launch his career forward, right? If he does well with Josh Allen and the bills, he'll be a head coaching candidate. And so I do think Ken Dorsey's very much

going to do this his way. And I think you can look at the moves that the bills made. And I think you can look at the moves that the bills made this offseason, and it's going to tell you a lot about the way that this offense could look differently. First of all, I'll start with the run scheme where the bills brought in Aaron Kromer to be the offensive line coach. Joe Brady is now the quarterbacks coach, Mike Shula, a senior offensive assistant. And so you have some new offensive minds in the mix here, and you couple that with a very high emphasis on adding athletic offensive lineman. And it's a clear tip to me that the bills are going to transition more towards a wide zone rushing offense as opposed to the multiple type run scheme that they ran under Brian

Dable that really tilted more heavily towards a gap scheme late in the season when you saw Devin Singletary really elevate his production later on. And so that's first and foremost. Secondly, they went out and they signed O.J. Howard to be the backup to Dawson Knox. And the bills last year really didn't use any other tight end besides Dawson Knox. In fact, after the Carolina game, like the last five or six games, including the playoffs, the bills only dressed one tight end on game day. That was it, Dawson Knox. So you didn't even have the threat of two and three tight end sets.

I think by adding an O.J. Howard and thinking about the influence of Mike Shula on this offense, you can expect to see more 12 personnel looks, more two tight end sets. And then the last thing that I'll say about how I think this Bill's offense is going to look different is you think about the desire that this team had to add a pass catching back. And they tried to sign JD McKissick. Obviously that fell through. But the pivot there was drafting James Cook in the second round or running back out of Georgia. And what he brings is past catching ability. That's the bread and butter there. He's a great route runner. He's got big time receiving upside. And I think the bills want to find more receiving production from their

backfield last year the bill's running backs were just 26 in the NFL and catches 28th in yards hello james cook i think that given the uh the likelihood that you're going to see a lot of soft high too high safety soft shell type coverages it's going to put a lot of onus back on josh allen to get the running backs going in the passing game and i think you'll see that a major shift there in running back passing production from this offense moving forward i want to build off of that with two questions. And I'm going to start with James Cook. And I thought it was interesting that you mentioned kind of a wide zone run game. Because when you think of the best zone runners in the NFL, James Cook's big brother, Dalvin Cook, is right up there, if not at the top. And quite frankly, when watching James Cook, he reminded me basically of Dalvin Cook's little brother, like a smaller version of Dalvin.

Is there a chance within the context of this new offense that not just James Cook becomes like the past, is there a chance at some point he even usurps the the majority of the carries in this backfield i still expect devon singletary to be the bill's lead running back and and i use the word lead very loosely we're not talking about a guy that's going to be the guy right the bell cow even even though that's what happened last season late in the year but i thought that just came down to you know him kind of having the hot hand and in him meshing well with that offensive line but also of the ineffectiveness of Zach Moss and Matt Breed. We know that philosophically, Sean McDermott wants to get multiple backs going to spread out that workload. And so I do think that Devin

Singletary in a contract year, based on what he's done, I mean, very quietly, he's been a pretty productive player. I know that there's a lot of criticism towards the bill's rushing offense. And I think in totality, that's pretty fair, especially when you take away what Josh Allen gives running the football. But, you know, Devin Singletary gave this team something pretty special over the last six games last season. You know, we're talking about 102 rushes, 430 yards, eight touchdowns, just running the football over the last six games, including the playoffs. And I think they're going to want to continue with that momentum, utilize him and then sprinkle in James Cook as that X-Factor receiving back. And really what it comes down to is James Cook, you know, doesn't necessarily project

well as a between-the-tackles runner. He's kind of a lean build, very very thin than his lower half. And you think of him more as a guy that's going to really test the perimeter, provide a speed dynamic that hasn't existed in this backfield, but also most importantly, the receiving ability. So I think that Devin Singletary will be the lead ball carrier for this football team, and James Cook will be sprinkled in as an X factor. So the second question that I wanted to build off of the fact that they want a little bit more juice in the passing game.

And I love that you brought up that they almost signed J.D. McKissick, which indicates that this was a prior. for them. For fantasy purposes, Josh Allen is the overall quarterback one. He's almost always the first quarterback drafted. A large part of that job is because of Josh Allen's rushing ability. Is the fact that they might be encouraging Josh Allen to take that check down a little more often, kind of a sign that they don't want him to run as much, not that you want to neuter that part of his game, but is that kind of a sign that they don't want him to take the beating that comes with that? Yeah, I think that's a great way to look at it. You know, you want for Josh Allen to stop being

his own checkdown by running the football, right? You want to take something off of Josh Allen, and I think that's something the bills will definitely be mindful of moving forward. I don't think they want to take that away. I still think the mobility, the run game is part of what makes Josh Allen such a dynamic football player and makes him difficult to defend. And he's coming off of a season where I think he had the highest yards rushes rushing attempts per game of his career, right? So it's not trending in that direction. And so I still think it's going to be a big part of his game. But, you know, I would personally like to see that become a true statement where it becomes more dumping the ball off to backs and tight ends and less Josh Allen taking hits. And, you know,

that just continues to be a big part of his game. But what's, what's really unique about Josh Allen compared to the other dual threat quarterbacks throughout, not just right now, but in NFL history is not only is he a top tier runner, he's a top tier passer, right? And so there's just the overall uniqueness with the Josh Allen that, you know, he's, He's one of only a couple of guys that have ever had, you know, more than 4,000 yards passing in a season to go with 500 rushing yards. He's a very unique player because he actually can run the football and throw it with consistency. So the passing game is, let's just put it this way. I'm teasing the people who are listening for fantasy purposes because I know you're not a big fantasy guy.

But there is a huge debate on fantasy Twitter, Joe. and it revolves around Gabriel Davis. There are some people, I am in the camp, I am expecting and hoping for a big breakout for Gabe Davis here this year. There's others who are like, well, wait a minute, this guy couldn't even get on the field until the end of last season. How are we going to expect him to come out and essentially put up 1,000 yards and eight or nine touchdowns, which is what he's getting drafted to do?

I know you're not a huge fantasy guy, but in terms of Gabriel Davis's outlook this season, what side of the fence are you on with him? Yeah, I can certainly see all the different arguments there. And it's going to be a big jump for Gabriel Davis, who's now looked at as the number two receiver for this offense after a couple of seasons of being kind of the fifth option, right, when you consider three receivers, Dawson Knox, and then Gabriel Davis. And there's no doubt about it that Gabriel Davis benefited from being that far down the pecking order when it comes to targets, right? he was able to take advantage of just kind of getting lost in the mix,

but also good chemistry with Josh Allen when plays broke down and kind of working the scramble drill and making plays down the field, right? He's going to have to showcase himself more as a more complete player, where I would take a lot of encouragement, and maybe this is something, you know, the fantasy community I know is very stats driven. And that's good. You should be. That's what wins fantasy, right?

Stats. But I think it's good to compliment it with some of the, the wording that's coming out of Sean McDermott's mouth and coming out of Josh Allen's mouth about how much they praise the habits and the work ethic and, you know, how Gabe Davis has evolved and put in the time and that they believe in him to take a step and fit into this role. And, you know, obviously we put a lot of stock into the last time we watch a player. And the last time we saw Gabriel Davis, he had four receiving touchdowns over 200 yards, you know, set the playoff record for receiving touch. touchdowns in a playoff game. And so there's a lot of hype there. And there's a lot of targets to

claim here. The bills don't have Cole Beasley back. They don't have Emmanuel Sanders back. And that frees up, you know, over 150 targets for this passing game. And you figure Gabriel Davis is going to claim a large, large percentage of them. And, you know, even though statistically Gabriel Davis was quite similar year over year, I thought he became more efficient with his targets in 2021 compared to 2020 and he was just more reliable. And I think that's going to grow into this season. Now, I've done my own personal projection for Gabriel Davis, and I think this will tell you exactly where I think he falls into this spectrum.

I have Gabriel Davis this season with 110 targets, 66 catches, 950 yards, and 9 touchdowns. I will tell you one thing. That would probably be the kind of stat line that depending on when those touchdowns come and when the big games come, both people on either side of the fence is going to be like, see, I was right. So if he helps you win playoff matchups, then that, then, then I'm going to be like, yeah, Gabe Davis. And if they come early in the season, people are going to be like,

what happened to Gabe Davis? So, well, I mean, it's such a fascinating debate because we do expect this to be such a phenomenal offense yet again, even with all of the changes. And I think one of the things that Bill's fans and media people would probably agree if there's something that can derail this offense other than something happening to Josh Allen, which, I mean, of course, the offensive line. The offensive line, I would say was probably average last year. Go out and make some moves this offseason to try to improve it. What's your outlook, Joe, on the offensive line here in Buffalo? I think it's the best group Josh Allen's had in front of him since he's become the Bill's quarterback. And I think that's,

I feel very, very confident in that. being a true statement. Obviously, you're returning Dion Dawkins, a Pro Bowl left tackle, Mitch Morse, who's outstanding at center. And then you have Ryan Bates, who as the Bill's offense woke up last year, it coincided with Ryan Bates becoming a starter for this team. And he was restricted free agent this off season. He signed an offer sheet with the Bears, the Patriots met with him, and the Vikings met with him. So this is definitely a player that put enough in a sample size of like six starts last year to make you feel really comfortable about him stepping into this lineup.

The bills matched the Bears offer sheet and brought him back on a four-year deal that's paying him like he's going to be a starter. Then you add Roger Saffold to the mix, a veteran. And what I get excited about is stable guard play in Ryan Bates and Roger Saffold, which has not been the case at all since Josh Allen's been the quarterback. It's been a revolving door. they've had some miscalculations, obviously, with trading away a Wyatt Teller, with re-signing a John Feliciano and a Quentin Spain, only to cut them the next season.

You know, they haven't gotten this guard position right. And I think in Roger Saffold and Ryan Bates, you've really shored up that interior offensive line to go with Mitch Morse. And then at right tackle, you have Spencer Brown, who is as physically gifted as a player as there is in the entire NFL, a perfect 10 relative athleticism score. And he got playing time last year. He became a starter for the Bills in week four. And the Bills offense really kind of came alive when he was in the lineup.

And you still protected that with bringing in a David Cressonbury, you had a strong season for the Titans last year. And so I think from a starting perspective, from a depth perspective, this is very clearly to me the best offensive line Josh Allen's had to date. Two more before we wrap it up here, Joe. I would be remiss if I didn't ask about Jameson Crowder. obviously you lose Cole Beasley a great slot receiver you bring in a younger slot receiver who's been productive in his career in Jamison Crowder what's the outlook for James and Crowder

in this offense it's such an interesting conversation because when the bill signed Cole Beasley and you compare that to when the bill signed James and Crowder james and Crowder comes to Buffalo younger and more productive than Cole Beasley was at the same point in his career coming over to Buffalo We kind of, I think it's easy to kind of overlook that component here where James and Crowder's a really good slot receiver. And obviously the bills wanted to maintain those same dynamics in this offense by going out and getting Crowder, even though it's a pretty modest one year deal for him to come over. Obviously, kind of some injuries last season and the Jets offense was a disaster and it wasn't obviously a great opportunity for him to showcase himself. But I think that he's going to come in and be a productive player for this team.

I do think that some of that slot production that we saw go to Cole Beasley gets absorbed by the tight ends and by the running backs, right? I think that's a layer to this offense that I think will be different. But I have Jameson Crowder down for 80 targets, 50 catches, 550 yards, and three touchdowns. So, I mean, from that perspective, not a huge, not much of a fantasy guy, but a very productive player for Buffalo as well. So, Joe, I've been asking everybody on the podcast as we wrap it up, maybe a player we haven't talked about yet on. offense who if things break the right way would have an opportunity to put up numbers, potentially significant numbers in this offense. Again, maybe somebody on the lower end. I'm not saying that this is a likely outcome, but somebody who you wouldn't be surprised to make his impact

on this Buffalo offense. Who would that be for the bills? Well, the guy that we haven't talked about is Dawson Knox. And I think he's very, very much a worthwhile player to talk about because I know with the fantasy component, there's that top tier of tight ends and then there's just everybody else. And I think that in that everybody else category, Dawson Knox can really kind of push to be in that conversation to be one of those guys that you got to have and start. Just look at his growth as a player. And I think it's important to go all the way back to high school with Dawson Knox where he played quarterback. And he goes to Ole Miss and he plays for Phil Longo, the offensive coordinator there. He's like the fifth option in the passing game doesn't catch a touchdown. And we're talking about

a position in tight end that is one that is slow developing for guys that have played at their whole entire career. And that's because you're learning to be an offensive lineman and a receiver simultaneously. That's a big transition coming over from quarterback. And then he goes to the NFL. He's a third round pick by the bills. And he's basically been the bill starter since he's been drafted. He's had some injuries and some drop issues earlier in his career. But it all came together for him last season. Nine touchdowns that tied Hunter Henry for the most of any tight end in the NFL. He did it in 15 games. 49 catches 587 yards. You know, He winds up being a 127.8 passer rating when targeted last season.

The drop rate, like he fixed it. He had five drops all last season. Three came in one game against the Saints, where he also caught two touchdown passes. His contested catch rate went up a ton. And I think that he's just becoming a very trusted option for Josh Allen in this offense. It's a contract year for him. And I think that it's just a very ripe situation for Dawson, Knox to claim even more market share to build off of a strong season and obviously, you know, deliver

so that he can maximize this booming tight end market when it comes to contracts next offseason. Joe, you are a draft analyst. So I've got to get one kind of geeky question in here. The bill spent one day three pick on a skill player. That's Khalil Shakir, the wide receiver at a Boise State. What, what did you see on his tape? What do you think he can bring the bills, if not this year, but maybe next year and into the future. I don't expect much from him this year, but I do like his potential to have an onboarding year and be the guy that could be the Bill's featured slot receiver after this season.

Jameson Crowder, only a one-year contract. I think that Shakir gives them the type of player that they typically like in terms of skill set, but also personality that's going to fit in really well with the Bill's culture, but it's the route running, it's the hands. It's the player he was at Boise State. you can envision him really kind of being a nice option for the bills to develop as the future slot receiver for this team. So probably a nice dynasty stash option if you're looking at him from a fantasy perspective. See, Joe, you do get it for fantasy.

A nice dynasty stash. There you're bringing out the terminology. Put him on the taxi squad, you know? Yeah, exactly. That's exactly what we want. His name is Joe Marino. He is the senior NFL draft analyst at the draft network. It's a phenomenal website, always checking that when I'm doing someone.

of my dynasty research, and he's the host of the locked on bills podcast. Follow him on Twitter at the Joe Marino. Joe has been wonderful talking to you. Thank you so much for joining the podcast. Yeah, I enjoyed it. Thank you for having me. We have got three more left folks, Baltimore Ravens, Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals, and then we are ready for training camp in the preseason. It's been wonderful talking to Joe. I'm Joe, he's Joe. You might be Joe. Chances are you aren't, but hopefully there's one of you or some of you listening out there. My name is Joe Dolan. thanks everybody for listening to the franchise focus podcast here at fantasy points.com, and we'll catch you tomorrow.

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