Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Franchise Focus: Denver Broncos

Episode Date: July 20, 2022

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) invites Broncos Insider Troy Renck (@TroyRenck) to discuss the upcoming season for the Denver Broncos. The Franchise Focus Podcast series is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy (@UnderdogFantasy). New users can sign up to Underdog using promo code FANTASYPTS for up to $100 in bonus cash on their first deposit. Visit fantasypoints.com/underdog for more info. The podcast series is also sponsored by Evan's Sports Cards & Collectibles (@evanscards). Follow @EvansCards on Twitter for weekly updates and card releases, Like on Facebook, and head to evanssportsnj.com for more info, including the always-updated eBay store. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome back to the franchise focus podcast series here at FantasyPoint.com. My name is Joe Dolan. And it's not everyday folks that we can have an award winner on the other side of the glass here. at the franchise focus podcast because right now we're talking to the 2019 Colorado sportscaster of the year. And well, it makes sense that we're talking to somebody from Colorado because

we're talking Denver Broncos today. And we are talking to Troy Rink. He is the Denver Broncos insider for Denver 7. He is the host of the Broncos podcast with Troy Rink. And he is also the insider for 104.3 The fan. You can follow him on Twitter. Troy Rink. That's R-E-N-C-K. Troy is here to talk Broncos. Troy, it is wonderful to have you on the podcast. Thank you so much for joining us. I know it's been quite an eventful offseason for Broncos fans. And, you know, the Broncos, for better or worse, and I think probably for better this offseason, very rarely a boring team in the past couple of decades. Yeah, Joe, thanks for having me on. It's a humbling thing to always, you know, beyond these

things. So thank you so much. Yeah, the veil of darkness is lifted. I mean, it can't, it's hard to describe how excited Broncos country is for the arrival of Russell Wilson and a lesser degree, coach Nathaniel Hackett, but he has caffeinated the fan base, meaning Hackett, and Russell Wilson has just returned hope. He has returned hope to this franchise and this team. They've had 11 different starting quarterback since Peyton Manning retired, none of whom were very good. Trevor Simeon was the best at 13 and 11. Brett Rippin went 1 and 0. Those are the only two with winning records. I don't want to say the Broncos have failed the last six years. They've just identified 11 wrong quarterback. So it is just, it is such an exciting time.

I haven't since exciting, this much excitement for the opening and training camp since the 2015 season when it was clear that could possibly be Peyton Manning's final season. There just has not been this kind of buzz around the team since Manning left. And I mean, obviously it's a hot sports town right now too with the avalanche coming off the Stanley Cup. So there's expectations right now in Denver. There's no doubt about that. Yeah, I mean, the Aves just brought a reminder of what it's like. I covered some of their home games during that Stanley Cup run.

And, you know, it's been six years since the Broncos have been in the playoffs. They're the, it's the longest the team's ever gone from winning a Super Bowl and not making the playoffs. And they're the only team outside of the Jets that's missed the playoffs the last six years. And if you're in a sentence with the Jets, that's typically not a good thing. So. Definitely not. But, yeah, there's a lot of excitement. It just brought a reminder what that feeling is that, you know, when they, when you win a championship, a sports.

team wins a championship. And the abs, it's interesting, this this is their third since coming to Colorado, was probably more appreciated than any of them because it had been 20 years, really two decades since their last one. So it was savored more. I mean, we were spoiled. The aft showed up their first year in Colorado and they went a title. And then, you know, a couple years later, they went another one with Ray Bork and that group. So this one was much more appreciated. And it, you know, it just rallies the community. It brings people together. And it's a reminder as great as that Avalanche run is what it's like in this city, this town, this region when the Broncos are winning. And you just take for granted that that's always going to happen in the last six years reminded folks that you cannot take it for granted.

You just don't know. And they are so ready for this team to turn around and be part of the national conversation again. And I mean, when you make a move, obviously you made a move for Peyton Manning that that is expected to produce wins. And it did. Same thing here. You make the move for Russell Wilson. The fans expect wins. They expect success right.

way. Now, from a fantasy perspective, though, I don't know how in the weeds, Troy, that you've gotten kind of following Seahawks people, talking to Seahawks people about how this can be expected to go. But there was a sentiment on Twitter, not just fantasy Twitter, but Seattle Seahawks Twitter in general, it was a hashtag, let Russ Cook. And it was because of the perception that the Seahawks never really let Russell Wilson open up the offense or really let him throw the ball as much as they thought he should have or as much as Russell Wilson frankly thought he should have. Based on the conversations that you've had, based on the listening you've done and the reporting you've done, what do you expect Nathaniel's, Nathaniel Hackett's offense to look like?

Is he indeed going to let Russ cook with this Broncos offense? Yeah, I mean, listen, it is, Hackett is tailoring the offense to Russell Wilson. I mean, that goes without saying he's not stupid. Hackett's actually one of the brighter coaches I've ever covered in terms of is just knowledge of the game. He's going to tailor the offense to Russell. But the key is, if this is going to reach optimum performance, they still need to run the football.

They brought in the outside zone run scheme because it creates gashes in the run game, and it also opens up play action passes. And that is key because Russell Wilson's deep balls as good as anybody in the NFL. And so it should make it even easier for him if you're able to run the football. And also, as Russ progresses in this offense,

which again, it's going to be Hackett's offense tailored to him. Can Russell learn to take the layups in this offense? There's a reason Aaron Rogers won back-to-back MVP's, in part because of Hackett's coaching and Matt LaFeur, the way they designed the offense is to be able to take the layups when they're there and then hit the deep strikes. But I don't see any reason why Russell Wilson can't have a four-to-one touchdown-to-pick ratio. Last year on what was supposed to be his worst season ever, he was 25-touch. touchdowns and six picks. That's still four to one. That is staggeringly better than anything the

Broncos have rolled out there since Peyton Manning. Frankly, since Manning and 14, if we want to go all the way back. So I believe from a fantasy perspective, Russell Wilson should be somewhere around 35, 36 touchdowns, eight, nine picks. That's where I believe he's going to be. But he does need to stay upright more. He's got to get, excuse me, he's a guy that gets sacked 45 times a year on average. That number, he's got to start playing from the head up more, not so much with his legs. He can use the legs, but he's got to be, the reason he gets sacks, some of these are on the office of line, obviously, but some of them are on Russell, extending plays, coloring outside the lines, holding on to the ball too long. I would like to see that number for him come down

and be 32 to 35 sacks, not 45 to 50 sacks a year. Because at some point, when he's going to be 34 during this season, that's just not great that my quarterback's getting hit that many times. So, but I expect from a fantasy perspective, 35, 36 touchdowns, eight or nine picks. So if Russell Wilson succeeds from a fantasy perspective, that obviously goes without saying that his receivers are going to succeed from a fantasy perspective, too. And I think there's been a lot of, I don't know if I want to call it lazy. I just think it's kind of a natural comparison between the two receivers that Denver has at the top with the two receivers that Seattle had at the top, two very good receivers, that being

Cortland Sutton being compared to D.K. Metcalf and Jerry Judy being compared to Tyler Lockett stylistically. Is that kind of how the way you see it? And how do you expect Russ to gravitate to these receivers if one of them more so or maybe both of them? Yeah, listen, I've said this about Jerry Judy and it feels like I'm Gilligan on this island, continue to remain bullish on Jerry Judy. This is a crossroad season for him. He's got to prove he's the number one receiver this year, or it's probably not going to be here in Denver. He may get that chance again.

It probably will not be here in Denver. I believe in Judy. He's better in space than NASA. Get him the ball. They used him as a decoy last year because of Punch Shermer. I mean, Pat Shermer. It was an asinine offense. They demoralized him.

Some of that's on Judy. His body language wasn't great. He got frustrated. I'm not defending everything. But he had three red zone targets last year in 10 games. Three. I mean, what are we doing? The guy was their best player in training camp. I'm talking best player. Not offense. On either side of the ball, he was their best player in camp. He hurts his ankle the first game of the season. He misses seven games, six games, and all of a sudden, you just don't use him. We use him on fake jet sweeps like it's JV football. Give me a break.

So he's going to be better because the offense is going to be tailored to the receivers, not just the receivers, but Hackett's going to get him the ball. I get understands that. That said, when he gets the ball, Jerry's got to be ready. He's got to be ready because they have Tim Patrick, they have Cortland Sutton. And if Jerry's having a tough day, Russell's not going to just stick to him because he doesn't have to. He's going to have other options. So my prediction is this is where I stand on it. And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

But I'm convinced this is what it's going to look like. Because Russell Wilson, and you guys in fantasy league owners would know this, he's only once in his career had 2,000 yard receivers on the same team. They're not all going to eat in ways people are for, for, forecasting here. They're getting over-excited about. But I could see Jerry Judy having 1200 yards leading the team in yards, but with six touchdowns. And Cortland Sutton having around 950, maybe gets to 1,000 because of the 17-game season. And he has 10 touchdowns because he's a 50-50 guy. He's open when he's covered. It looks like from what I saw this off-season, he's healthier. Now he would be two years removed from his ACL surgery. It looks like that burst off the

line of scrimmage to great separation has returned that he did not consistently have last year. So I have Jerry Judy leading the team in yards around 1,200. And I have Cortland Sutton is my pick to leave them in touchdowns from receiving standpoint. I love this, Troy, that you're given, you're one of the few. This is now, by the way, my 24th franchise focus interview that I've done. You were the first one to give statistical projections. I'm loving this and I'm taking notes as you say it. Hey, fantasy points listeners, Ben Cucanis here,

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That's Evansportsnj.com online and at Evans cards on Twitter. Tell them the guys from FantasyPoint sent you. So now I got to switch to there's actually a player going earlier than every other Bronco in fantasy drafts, and that is Javante Williams. The fantasy community is ready for the Javante Williams breakout. The question, Troy, is, are the Broncos ready for the Javante Williams breakout? The Melvin Gordon coming back, maybe through a little bit of a wrench in that. What are you hearing about Jvante Williams? What do you expect from Javante Williams and maybe compare and contrast them to Melvin Gordon statistically? Yeah. Fantasy League oner. is hate Melvin Gordon. And I get it on my Twitter feed and my email all the time because he ruined a lot of their draft projections. He was pretty good last year. I mean, you got to give him credit.

Here's the thing about Melvin Gordon. He doesn't need Siri to find the end zone. The guy can score touchdowns. It's what he does. He's got 20 touchdowns in a couple years of the Broncos. He gets in the end zone. So if I'm a fantasy league owner and I'm giving your and folks advice on this, I would just be cautiously optimistic about Javante Williams getting roughly 55 to 60% of the carries and then they're going to play the hot hand. Last year they legitimately were 50-50. They had the exact same number of carries. 203, Gordon, 203 Williams. That's not going to happen. That was a statistical anomaly. I would guess, as we sit here today, it's going to be more like 60-40. And then the next year is when you see Javonte Williams become that

back who's in that, you know, a chance to get 300 touches type thing. The issue I would tell fantasy league owners just to be concerned with is the fact that Gordon can also catch the ball of the backfield. Gordon is good on third down. Gordon is good around the end zone. So I could see drives where Giovante Williams has six carries for 62 yards and Melvin Gordon gets a touchdown. That's the concern if you're a fantasy league owner

is that Williams is going to lead them in yards with like 1150, 1,200, but Gordon has 10 touchdowns and Giovante has six or seven. That's a real possibility. And that's how it's skewed last year. And I don't know exactly because I don't know how hack

it's going to do it. But remember this. This isn't just me saying this. So like writers are idiots, Brockett's what do they know? Hackett and George Payton wanted Melvin Gordon back. They want to keep tread on Giovante Williams' tire. They don't want because at the end of the season, Giovante Williams started to slow down last year because he runs like a comic book, Batman.

Boom, pow, bang. He just has violent intention. And you can't do that for 17 games. You really can't. So the idea you have two good backs like they did last year, with Dylan and Jones in Green Bay. Hackick wanted that. So it's not just writers saying, oh, Gordon's going to get touches.

Well, writers are idiot. Again, I'm just reading the tea leaves here. But what I could see is by mid-season or the bye week, if Giovante's playing better, they're going to be like, okay, he's the horse now. Melvin, you're our third downback. And that could happen. But early on, I would caution fantasy league owners,

just to be aware, it may, Giovante may not be the guy you're thinking of early in the season. It might evolve to that later in the year as he becomes the clear workhorse. I don't know if I'm going to step on your toes here, Troy, because I've been asking for fantasy sleepers from like all of the, all of the analysts who've come on the podcast. But I really do have to ask about the tight end position because when Russell Wilson got moved to Denver and, of course, Noah Fant was part of the package going back.

Everybody's like, well, Albert O to the moon. he's going to put up numbers. And then they draft Greg Dolchich in the third round of the draft, kind of thrown a little bit of a wrench in there, especially considering Russ hasn't really thrown the ball to the tight end with Alacrity in the past. What's your kind of read on this tight end battle with Alberto and Greg Dolchich? Was that even kind of a luxury pick for the Broncos at this stage?

I wouldn't say luxury because they just don't know with Albert Okuwebunan if he's going to be healthy. The one that, which are you, one of them becomes not just a willing blocker, but a functional blocker is going to be the guy that ends up with the best numbers. Because Nathaniel Hackett's offense, not unlike Gary Kubiak and Kyle Shanahan, the offense works best when you're able to run two tight-in sets and they make every play look the same. So, oh, they could be running wide. Oh, wait, it's a bootleg. They could be running white. Oh, wait, the tight end's releasing here. But if you have a tight-in who can't block,

that makes it very difficult for this offense to run it the way they want to and disguise the run game and disguise play action. So whichever one emerges as a more functional blocker between Alberto Kuevanov and Dolc will play more and for me, we'll ultimately have more receiving yards because they're going to be in the game more. Right now, Alberto has the slide edge entering training camp. Dolcich had a hamstring toward the end of OTAs, so we didn't see him as much.

You know, we'll see if he can hit the ground, you know, in full throttle in training camp. He's bigger than I thought in person than I expected. He runs really well. I saw a lot of his games in the Pac-12. He looks the part, and he is a willing blocker, but is he a functional blocker? Willing and functional are two different terms. The one, here's what I would tell fantasy league owners about the tight-in position of the Broncos,

because you're right, outside of a, you know, a synapse, a glimpse, that cursory look of Jimmy Graham, who was really a flex tight-in, he's not a true tight-in. that's the only time Russell's thrown to his tight end with any regularity. So don't expect big numbers. The two of them, though, could combine for, I could see a thousand yards. But the one thing you could see from Alberto Kwebenam is the old three-catch, 72-yard touchdown game, then no-catch, two catches, 12 yards,

and then another three-catch 80-yard game, because they're going to use him on seam routes. So there are going to be a couple of games when you look at matchups, particularly if there's teams that are going to try to cover him with a lineback, that's where if you're in fantasy league, you might roll the dice and say Okuwebunam might have two catches, but it might be 52 yards and a 48 yard touchdown. I would keep an eye on that. And Dolce could be that guy too eventually. But I would lean toward Okuwebunam early because he's clearly in the lead. Again, that could change by midseason by the by week. I just wouldn't rely heavily on the Broncos tight ends given Russ's history. But the hard part is Hack it and the green.

Bay offense, they turn, you know, fire hydrants at times that tied in into great past catchers. So will some of that come over? That's what we don't know. That's what we need to get the pads on and see what that looks like. But I would give a slight lean to Alberto Kwebunom over Dolch it initially and look for matchups where you think teams are going to have like the courage slash guts to just really rely on a linebacker in that seam route. I know you've noticed that Russell Wilson has been calling out some of the other past

catchers on here by name. And I'm going to wrap up the podcast by just asking you two more, because I'm going to guess maybe one of your sleepers was coming from this group. Another wide receiver outside of maybe the top two can produce. We know Tim Patrick's a rock solid guy. I know I'm intrigued by KJ Hamler as well. We're one of those two guys maybe the sleeper you were going to highlight here on this team, Troy. And if not, who was it going to be? Yeah, it'd be one of those two. Like, it's not really a sleeper with Tim Patrick because he's been the best receiver the last two years. I just don't know where he fits because he and Sutton essentially run the same route tree. They're very similar players. And so I don't know what that's

going to look like. If Sutton gets back to his Pro Bowl form from two years ago, is Patrick now going to be, you know, 45 catches, 550 yards, and four touchdowns? Because the last few years, he's been basically 800 yards, six touchdowns. He was literally the only receiver that caught a touchdown the last half of the last season. And he's relied. He never drops a pass. So you know he's going to get something, but I just don't know what. If Sutton emerges as a guy at the goal line for Russell in terms of fantasy league,

Patrick's a tough one. KJ. Hamler's like Hardman from Kansas City. He's that boom or bust guy that can win you a week. Early on, I would say be careful because I think he's going to start the season on the Pupp list, certainly training camp. And he might be eased in to where you don't see the best of Hamler until October 1st, but Hamler's the kind of guy that could have three catches, 80 yards, and a touchdown. He's a faster version of Lockett, but he has to prove it.

He's definitely in just straight line speed. He's faster than Locket. Locket is a more accomplished receiver, clearly. But can you see patterns where they go run, run, run, and then all of a sudden Hamler takes the top off? Absolutely. But I'm just saying you can't count on it week to week. That would be a fool's errand.

but if you want a sleeper that's like rolling the dice high end, that would be Hamler. If you just want the blue collar stock, that he's technically not a sleeper. But let's say Sutton, you know, tings an ankle all of a sudden, there's Tim Patrick leading him catches in yards again for a month. He would be the more conservative blue collar sleeper where Hamler has a chance to be a huge upside on five, six weeks out of the season where he could literally lead them in receiving yards. with four or five catches. You mentioned that Nathaniel Hackett has caffeinated the fan base, Troy. Sounds like he's caffeinated you, too. You have got to be the most energetic person talking Broncos I have ever encountered.

I am so glad you came on the podcast bringing that energy here. It was just wonderful. It was an honor to have you. He's Troy Rank. He is the Denver Broncos insider for Denver 7 and the host of the Broncos podcast with Troy Rank, the 2019 Colorado Sportscaster of the year. I'm pretty sure you guys can tell why after this podcast, Troy, it was awesome. Thank you so much for coming on.

Yeah, again, it's humbling. Thanks for having me on. I get me in. Again, I get to cover sports for a living. How can I not be in a great mood? Joe, Joe, thank you for having me on. Thanks to your listeners. And any of them that go check out my podcast,

especially if you're a Broncos fan, Broncos country has been great in the support of that. So thanks for the plug. I really appreciate you, Joe. Everybody around the Broncos, everybody in Denver is excited right now, and that's pretty obvious. Thanks for listening to this podcast, everybody,

this edition of the franchise focus podcast. My name is Joe Dill. have Marcus Mosher talking cowboys tomorrow. And then we're going to talk Cleveland Browns at the end of the week. Thank you everybody for listening. It has been wonderful and we'll talk to you the rest of the week. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate and review on your favorite platform and come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.