Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Franchise Focus: New England Patriots

Episode Date: July 6, 2022

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) invites Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) of the Boston Herald to discuss the upcoming season for the New England Patriots. The Franchise Focus Podcast series is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy (@UnderdogFantasy). New users can sign up to Underdog using promo code FANTASYPTS for up to $100 in bonus cash on their first deposit. Visit fantasypoints.com/underdog for more info. The podcast series is also sponsored by Evan's Sports Cards & Collectibles (@evanscards). Follow @EvansCards on Twitter for weekly updates and card releases, Like on Facebook, and head to evanssportsnj.com for more info, including the always-updated eBay store. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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fantasy using promo code fantasy PTS for up to $100 in bonus cash on their first deposit. That's promo code fantasy pts. Head to fantasypoints.com slash underdog for more information. Now let's get to the show. It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a six. single goal to help you score more fantasy points.

Welcome back to the franchise focus podcast series here at fantasy points.com. My name is Joe Dolan. If I'm a little bit subdued, well, you've kind of noticed on the podcast that I've been recording here. A little bit of a frog in my throat tested positive for COVID this morning. By the time you listen to this podcast, hopefully I'll be all over it because, well, we're recording these a few days in advance of every podcast. and there's a really good reason for that.

A number one, I have to schedule 32 of these interviews and getting 32 different people to, you know, be able to spare some of their time so generously. You got to spread it out and make sure you have time to record all those. But also, it's because every single NFL beatwriter this year has been in Europe, every single one of them. I've reached out to multiple people and it's like, oh, I'm in Europe.

I'm in Italy. And fortunately, our guest today, I got him as he was coming back from Europe. And I was able to get him to interview with us. He's an old buddy of mine from when he was covering Penn State, up in State College, PA. He is now the Patriots beatwriter, excuse me, for the Boston Herald. His name is Andrew Callahan.

You can follow him on Twitter at underscore Andrew Callahan. That's underscore first Andrew Callahan. Callahan, it's good to talk to you, How you doing? I'm glad you're back from what was a very, I guess, I would call it, eventful and life-changing vacation for you. Yeah, getting engaged. Kind of a big deal, it turns out.

Yeah, I would say so. We did it smack dab in the middle of a trip that included Spain, Belgium, and then Amsterdam and my now fiancee used to live in Spain, so we went to Granada. But that was day five of the trips of the first four. I'm looking up like all the remedies you can have for panic attacks. because the anxiety was out of 10 going through security with that ring. But everything went to plan.

It was an outstanding trip, and I'm glad to come home and hang with you. You know, getting us a ring through security, it's like definitely not something I would think of before I would actually have to propose overseas and be like, oh, crap, I've got to do this. So I'm glad everything worked out. You're starting a new chapter in your life. That's fantastic. I'm sure Bill Belichick would give you a rousing congratulations if he heard that.

Wow, that's great. And well, you're back, you're engaged, and now it's time to talk about Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. But first, I have to remind everybody that the franchise focus series of podcasts is brought to you by Evans, sports cards, and collectibles. The best place for cards, collectibles, autographs, and more. All our memorabilia giveaways are from Evans. And Evans always has the latest boxes and releases from Panini, Upper Deck, Tops, and more. And it's not a super store. It's one of those family-owned small businesses that you will love.

to support. If you're in the Philadelphia area, go stop in at Evans. But if you're not like me, it's just as good to visit the eBay store. Follow at Evans cards on Twitter for weekly updates and card releases, which you can also find out by liking them on Facebook and heading to Evans SportsNJ.com for more information, including that always updated eBay store. Releases this week include the 2021 Panini contenders slash optic football set, the 2022 Panini select baseball set. and that's at Evansportsnj.com online and at Evans cards on Twitter and tell them the guys from fantasy points.com sent you. So back to reality for you, Callahan.

You've got to try to break down this Patriots roster. And they're coming off a very interesting draft. Obviously, we know what they did in the first round with Cole Strange. And first and foremost, you've been to OTAs. I need to ask one thing. Does Col Strange still have the bar in the middle of his face mask? No, he did not, sadly, from what we saw in O.Camp. But the other thing about rookies in the offseason is they're not even wearing jersey numbers

that they'll be able to wear in live games. This is like Bill at his most old school. If you're the first pick, you get number 50. The second pick, it's number 51. So Taekwon Thornton is flying around at likely 4243 speed, but it looks like a 4-7 because he's in a number 51 jersey. So he might have a different face mask by the time we get to have football because he'll also have a very different jersey when we get the preseason. Well, let's start there with Taekwan Thornton, because this is a player who I think was polarizing.

Like Belichick is not, Belichick doesn't care about your mock drafts. That's obvious. But he's somebody who some people liked a lot. As a matter of fact, our guy Greg Kosell at FantasyPoints.com and he does his prospect guide, he told me that the only difference he really saw between Taekwon Thornton and Chris Olive was the logo on the helmet. And the Patriots get him in the second round. I know he's been kind of a polarizing pick for Patriots fans,

but what have you been seeing from him, as you said, flying around out there in OTAs and mini camps? And what are your expectations for him? Yeah, so no question the straight line speed is there right. And you would hope so, even though they're not in pads. There's no contact. There's nothing. And I think he's coming along slowly as every Patriots receiver really ever has.

under Belichick, particularly the rookies or any of these guys, even in their first year, to see Nelson Aguilar, you know, in his first year last year, it takes a little while to get going as another example. But, you know, I don't have a lot of expectations for him. For all the reasons I just mentioned, rookie is a particular struggle. Yes, he's a second round pick, but you've got four solid established veterans ahead of him. And none of them would fit into the wide receiver one kind of category or excite you or keep a defensive coordinator up at night. But Jacoby Myers has over 80 catches last year. Kendrick Bourne is coming off a career year. They trade, you know, in a position.

pick swab to get Devante Parker, who's going to be their ex-receiver, you know, until he gets hurt. And then Nelson Aguilar is your number four. So I just think it's going to be difficult. And Aguilar's a guy like as a bounceback for Taekwant Thorne to overcome all that, particularly for a team that for the last five, 10 years, has really been in the top five to top 10 and usage of 12 personnel or 21, where in either case, you only have two receivers on the field. Well, okay, let's talk about the passing game now in general. Obviously, Josh McDaniels is gone. A, number one, do you even know who's calling plays yet? Who's designing the passing game? And B, even though McDaniels is gone, do you anticipate that this is going to be an expanded

passing game in Mack Jones's second year? You know, it's interesting because for the play caller question, no. And that's going to be a question as long as the Patriots can keep the mystery alive, which could even go through the preseason where, you know, back in 2019, Brian Flores leaves for the dolphins, they replace him with a combination of Drod Mayo, who is his first year as an NFL coach and Steve Belichick. Mayo calls plays throughout the whole training camp for preseason, and then Steve Belichick gets it during the regular season. So we're not going to know for a while on that front, but I would say as far as the passing game goes, Joe Judge has been more in charge of the skill position players and the past catchers along with the quarterback so far,

you know, in the spring. And Matt Patricia has been in charge of the run game. Now, the idea that they might have a passing game coordinator and a run game coordinator, like you see so much in college has been dismissed by Jeff Howe from the athletic. But I think as far as who's going to be in charge of those areas, Joe Judge is in the passing game. And as far as expanding it, you know, the inkling, like it sounds like the way you ask that question is, yes, it should be expanded. Mac Jones, you're too. He's mastered the system, yada yada, but the words we keep hearing about this system now under Judge and Patricia are things like streamlined and simplified and new terminology. where the Patriots offense for 20 years with Tom Brady, obviously, entrenched there,

just kept building out. And now they're saying no one has this kind of institutional knowledge and history of the system and all these concepts. Let's do what we do well. And it'll actually be simplified in a way that they'll have all their option rounds and different concepts. But it should be smaller and I think more efficient. So they're trying to get the guys to play a little bit faster. Just internally, how did the Patriots feel about Mack Jones's rookie season?

I mean, I think he was probably the best of the rookie quarterbacks. but did he give them exactly what they wanted, what they hoped for? Did they expect more? Or were they really just blown away by what he did? Yeah, somewhere in between. He definitely exceeded expectations where, you know, they're saying publicly Cam's going to be our quarterback at the moment after that Mac is drafted.

And that's part expectation management publicly and for Mac individually. But it only took about three weeks in training camp for Mac solidly to pass Cam in their battle. And then it played out as it did. And I think what you just saw with him was after their biweek, which was in mid-December, you know, he really started to tail off. He was always one of the weak or deep passers last season as a rookie, not really a strength of his game. But as far as the accuracy within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, the quick release, the pre-snap diagnosis, like all of those pass with flying colors and were passable for a team that made the playoffs. It's just he was not at his best when his best was needed. Now, he was also maybe one of the few players who played well in that just horrendous wildcard loss for them at Buffalo.

but yes, he exceeded expectations and they've only been happier with him since they stopped playing football and the way he's kind of made this team his own. You talked about 12 personnel. I would anticipate the Patriots are still going to be a heavy 12 personnel team. But one player I can, I think I'd be able to read between the lines on Bill Belichick on this one, Callahan. There's no way they got out of Johnny Smith what they expected when they paid him all that money last year. Is there a chance there's a step forward there or should we expect more of the same with Hunter, Henry really being the top tight end.

Yeah, I mean, it would hard to get worse, right? He doesn't even crack 300 yards last year. He has one receiving touchdown. He's not breaking tackles like he really should be. Only two on the season. Same number as Nelson Aguilar. And, you know, 12 personnel for them last year really tailed off after week two. Like, they knew pretty quickly we're not more efficient running or passing from this

personnel grouping and just wrote Hunter Henry, who delivered exactly what you want, maybe a few more touchdown since he finished with nine. But they tried him, you know, carrying the ball in these jet. sweep. They would have some throwback passes. They'd have some screens for him, you know, some kind of delayed release stuff. So I think John Smith is just going to be better by virtue of the fact that's hard to get worse for a guy who's in the physical prime of his life and his career. And he participated in OTAs this year, which he didn't do last year due to the birth of his daughter and some COVID concerns. So I think he wants to get better naturally. He's a guy that fits their culture

and did before he got here. But I wouldn't expect, you know, five to six hundred yards. Because even in Tennessee, you go back, he had a lot of high touchdown seasons. Never passed 500 yards. But I think just as far as improvement, yes, it's safe to bank. He won't get any worse. I mean, you're a fantasy guy, Callahan. I know that. And last year, I think, I mean, based on where he was getting drafted, Jacoby Myers came through despite his unbelievable allergy to the end zone,

which I know he laughed about multiple times. He led this team in both catches and receiving yards last year. If let's look, okay, let's put it this way, if somebody on this team is going to pass Jacoby Myers in catches or receiving yards, who's got the best shot to do it? You know, it's tough. I would say Kendrick Bourne, because the only other answer in my mind would really be Devante Parker, and then you tie that to the questions about health. And I think for the reasons I just mentioned at death, like, he's the only definitive

X out there. So he doesn't have a whole lot of competition playing alone by himself on the weak side of the formation. But, you know, Kendrick Bourne is a guy that they really worked to get the ball later in the season and featured him more as a rusher than he ever was. San Francisco. You know, he's a guy who had, I think, the highest catch rate on the team. His average depth of target was actually lower than Jacobi Meyer, so they felt comfortable working him in the slot, some drag stuff, some slants, obviously the digs downfield.

But he's all breaking tackle. So I think now that they know what they have and they can trust him, whereas Jacobi Myers had an earlier start than Kendrick Boren, just because it was all his years in the system, that's a guy who could overtake him. And even last year, despite starting 11 fewer games, he only had 66 fewer yards than Jacobi Meyer. So that would be my guy to look out for. Yeah. And I'll probably ask you that again, but I just wanted to let you know, Gall I am. Born is currently carrying an average draft position of 190 overall. So he's essentially free in draft. So, wow. Yeah, scoop in. Certainly something to look out for. And I'll ask you the key question later on. But now let's get to probably for fantasy ass purposes. I buried the lead

here to borrow a J school term. The backfield. It's wild every single year. I can't even tell you the last, oh, maybe, maybe 2020 they didn't draft a back. But they seem to draft a running back every year. They drafted two of them this year. They had a great run game last year with Damien Harris and Ramandre Stevenson. Off air, you told me you had a little bit of a prediction about how these things are going to go. Based on what you've seen, based on what you've heard, what do you expect the backfield breakdown to be like for the Patriots this season?

Yeah, I think Damien Harris enters training camp from, probably the season is your number one running back, but I would bank on Remandre Stevenson winning out by the end of the year as their lead back. And this is always going to be a 1A, 1B scenario, right? Because Damien Harris is legitimate, worthy, talented starting running back. But when you look at some of the underlying numbers for Stevenson, who is not only just by virtue of seeing the field as a rookie, which you never really have, you can go through James White, Shane Boreen, you know,

all throughout the years, even Damien Harris back in 2019 as a rookie didn't play. Right, all redshirted. Remindery Stevenson was the exception to that. this is a guy who not only played his rookie, but fumbled in the first game against Miami at home, comes out of the doghouse and then comes out with more broken tackles last season, despite taking, I think it was 80 fewer carries than Damon Harris, then Harris had all of last season. So Stevenson's told us already he really worked this offseason to become more of a productive third down back.

I can say, okay, maybe that's James White's role. He's going to be healthy. The hip is not 100 percent, or at least it wasn't as up earlier this month here in June. So James White, and you look at his contract, they're not 100 percent confident. he'll be the player that we last saw normally is a good bet in kind of a PPR format. I think Remindre Stevenson, though, considering year two, considering what we saw in year one, and just he's got exceptionally light feet for a guy who's pushing 230, soft hands, and I think got a lot of untapped potential due to some off-field stuff at Oklahoma.

He's coming into his own now. He fits. I think he's more gifted as a guy who can break tackles, has some more wiggle than Damien Harris, and that should ultimately win out at the end of the season. You know, I think it's funny. You mentioned Shane Vareen, who was kind of like the successor to Kevin Falk, and then James White, who was kind of the successor to Shane Verene. And then you've got all these Patriots, it's almost like they keep churning guys through.

They had, who was it? Stephen Ridley, like, took over for Ben Jarvis Green Ellis, I think. Like, they always churn through and have a successor. They obviously drafted two running backs in April. Pierre Strong, who I think is probably more of that James White type. And then they also drafted Kevin Harris out of South Carolina. who I think is more of the Damien Harris type. Damien Harris is in the final year of his contract.

The way you're looting it to me, I'm not even sure James White makes this team right now. Do you view that as like kind of the right way to look at this, that Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris are essentially the next man up in those two roles? I think that's the way the Patriots would like it. And I can tell you, after they drafted Kevin Harris, they saw him as a player, you know, who really struggled in 2021 coming off at back surgery in South Carolina. But in 2020, and you can say short season, whatever, against entire SEC opponents and a schedule, he led the SEC in Russia. And that's for a bad South Carolina team.

So they see him as a big natural talent. They grabbed, I think it was in the sixth round. And you even go back, I mentioned in 2019 when they took Damien Harris. That was a third round pick. They looked at him as just, he's too good. He's the best player on our board. They're kind of askewing the positional value at that point. They just wanted to go with him.

That was the same with Kevin Harris. It was kind of he's too good to take. Now, I think you're right in that they have an eye in Damian Harris's contract situation. is they're always playing out this, you know, particularly with the draft, looking a year or two ahead. But I think, you know, I think James White will make the roster for now because you just don't have total trust, even a guy like Damian Harris in Blitz pickup. But, you know, Kevin Harris, I think, would be a prime redshirt candidate. And Pierre Strong is the wild card, man, because that dude not only was the fastest time running back

at the combine, he's another one, soft hands, he had a fumbling issue. Of course, small school competition in South Dakota State. But if they get him to hold on to the ball, he is up there, you know, close with Damien and reminder of Stevenson is the most naturally gifted runners on the roster. Okay, so I told you all fair that I would ask you kind of a lower end guy who might contribute. Now, you already told us Kendrick Bourne, you think's got a shot to lead the team in receiving. Again, guys, he's a last round pick for fantasy. You can essentially pick him up for free.

Outside of Kendrick-Born, is there anybody you wouldn't be shocked, maybe put up better numbers than maybe the rest of the world anticipates with the Patriots? Yeah, it's so tough, right? because you look at them and the Patriots can be interesting for so many different reasons and then from a fantasy standpoint, it's like, I don't know who to count on because these are all number twos as tight ends. By the way, the earliest guy getting drafted is Damian Harris and he's like a seventh round pick. So that just goes to show you where everything's going.

All right. You know what? Let me rephrase that because you already. Well, no, I got one here, actually. Oh, please do. Okay. Yes. So people who have listened to me on my podcast, Pat's Interference or Redmed me, no, I've said this stat ad nauseum and I started this all.

the same way. But I mentioned him earlier as probably their number four receiver. Nelson Aguilar last year, like any free agent coming off a career year in a one-year contract, regressed with the Patriots last year in 2021. 473 receiving yards, only three touchdowns, and that was in 15 games. The problem with him was not necessarily the usage, because the Patriots utilized him in a very similar way when he broke out with the Raiders. Screw your snaps in the slot. We're going to park you outside. You're going to run the deepest routes of anyone, and we're going to send you deep. Mack Jones, of course, does not have the best arm strength. What he also didn't have was his accuracy on those throws in Nelson Aguilar, who saw the lowest rate of catchable passes on targets 20 or more yards downfield. So when you

have a downfield specialist like Nelson Aguilar, who's not allowed to do what he does, like a one-trick pony who's then asked to do these tricks on three legs, it's just not going to work. And I think that was just a factor of bad luck in his part where Jacoby Myers, Kendra 4, Hunter, Henry, all seeing more accurate passes on an average basis than now. Nelson Aguilar was. If Mack Jones just has average accuracy relative to his other receivers, when throwing to Nelson Aguilar, that's two extra catches for another 50, 60 yards. He goes up somewhere in the neighborhood of 600, 700 yards, and that could win you a week, particularly late in the season if you're facing a defense with a poor deep pass defense playing a lot of single high and

you just trust Nelson Aguilar and a flyer. I think he could win you some weeks. The other thing that I was going to ask you before you brought up Aguilar was, do the Patriots really believe like Devante Parker gives them something they didn't have last year? You know, yes, because the way they've made the trade and the way they've talked about him since then, the answer is yes. They're, of course, aware of the injury history, and they've treated a lot of guys who have had soft tissue injuries, which has primarily been Devante Parker's problem, is their remedy is a lot more running, and they've got some sports science staff, some of whom

they've even stole from the Celtics, and they've worked through a lot of that. But I texted an NFL GM right after they made the trade and says, he's still a difference maker to you. and he said difference maker, no, but solid addition. So I don't think they need him to be the 1,200-yard guy he was in Miami in 2019, the last time he played in this system. But if he's healthy, that's the ceiling, no doubt. I think they've just tempered expectations to,

he could be our leading receiver at maybe 8, 900 yards. You know, it's kind of funny the way you mention Devante Parker. Like, is he a difference maker? No, but let's go back to when Nelson Aguilar was on Philadelphia, and Philadelphia signed Alshon Jeffrey in the offseason. He wasn't the 1,200-yard guy, but he was. clearly like made that impact as like the big X on the perimeter and was a really good player for them obviously they went to and won the Super Bowl. I wonder if Parker can be something like that for them.

Yeah. I think that's really what they're hoping for because you look at the way that Parker was used in Miami. I don't remember this sat off the top of my head, but it was just, you know, he was targeted more inside the 20 yard line, I think it was than any other X receiver was in 2019. Like they really just parked him out there and said, we're going to have you run slants, you're going to run fades. You know, we'll have an occasional out or a dig. But we're just going to ask you to win an in-breaking rounds and use your big body along the sideline. And even showed some flashes that last year against teams like Buffalo, you know, the Colts don't have a great secondary.

But he was still making those type of catches. He just needs to stay on the field. And I think that's what they're going to ask him to do, win on third down when you need a big grab because we just can't ask guys guys like Jacoby Myers and Nelson Aguilar and sometimes get from born to escape press coverage. And no one saw more press than them last year. And that's what really hampered them down the stretch in addition to them extra. He is absolutely a must follow for the Patriots. His name is Andrew Callahan. You follow him on Twitter at underscore Andrew Callahan.

The underscore is first. Callahan, you're wild. The underscore is first, man. That's just out of left field, I got to tell you. Dude, I've been trying to hunt this guy down at Andrew Callahan. Like, send him DMs, even look up his email because it happens in every radio hit, sometimes on TV. And that's just like, that was also on my list of somewhere.

I got to get this done. I got to have Joe on my podcast. And we got to hunt down this, this Andrew Callahan imposter that's got the best handle out there. I would love to hunt this guy down. I would love to change my handle too. Or else I, if I change my handle, I'll lose my elite blue check marks. I don't want to do that.

But you can follow me on Twitter at FG underscore Nolan. But make sure you follow Callahan at underscore Andrew Callahan. And you can also follow the Pat's interference. You got it? It's a play on words there, Calhansy. I picked up on that. The Pat's Interference Podcast at Pat's Interpod. You follow him on Twitter. You'll get all of that. Andrew, thanks so much, brother. Congratulations. And have fun covering the Patriots. It's always one of the more interesting teams to talk about for fantasy, if not maddening, because, well, that's what Bill Belichick's been doing to us for 20 years.

Yeah, well, you know, just try to work with them every day. I'm kidding, of course. but it's yeah like you said always interesting had a blast and can't wait to talk to soon joe for and i'll probably check back him with him on his podcast this offseason hopefully when i sound a little bit better than this my name is joe dole thanks for joining us for this edition of the franchise focus and we will have more later this week and later this month thanks for tuning in to this edition of the fantasy points podcast remember to subscribe rate and review on your favorite platform and come Join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.