Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Franchise Focus: New Orleans Saints

Episode Date: July 5, 2022

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) invites Locked On Saints writer and host Ross Jackson (@RossJacksonNOLA) to discuss the upcoming season for the New Orleans Saints. The Franchise Focus Podcast series is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy (@UnderdogFantasy). New users can sign up to Underdog using promo code FANTASYPTS for up to $100 in bonus cash on their first deposit. Visit fantasypoints.com/underdog for more info. The podcast series is also sponsored by Evan's Sports Cards & Collectibles (@evanscards). Follow @EvansCards on Twitter for weekly updates and card releases, Like on Facebook, and head to evanssportsnj.com for more info, including the always-updated eBay store. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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That's promo code FantasyPTS. Head to FantasyPoint.com slash Underdog for more information. Now, let's get to the show. It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome back to the franchise focus podcast series here at FantasyPoint.com. My name is Joe Dolan.

The frog in my throat is improving just a little bit. I'm very glad, though, that I have somebody who sounds fantastic today to be talking New Orleans Saints on the franchise focus podcast. His name is Ross Jackson. You can find his work on the Locked-on Saints podcast, which is like the podcast for Saints fans. And he's a contributor to the Saints Wire. Follow him on Twitter at Ross Jackson, Nola. Ross, thank you so much for joining me here to talk Saints on today's podcast. It's really an honor to have you on.

Hey brother, pleasure and honor is all mine. Great for to be here with you. I thought for a second, like you introduced yourself and then you said this frog in my throat. And I thought you were going to introduce the frog in your throat's name too, is what I was waiting for. Oh, I haven't named it yet. It is COVID-19. I know that. Fortunately, fortunately, I don't feel so bad.

I just sound like crap. Ross, we're going to get to the Saints really quickly, but I have to let you know that the franchise-focused series of podcast here at FantasyPoint.com is brought to you by Evans, sports cards, and collectibles. the best place for cards, collectibles, autographs, and more. All of our fantasy points memorabilia giveaways are from Evans. Evans always has the latest boxes and releases from Panini, Upper Deck, Tops, and more. And it's not a super store. It's one of those family-owned small businesses like Fantasy Points that you can feel good about supporting. It's always good for an in-person visit if you're in the Philadelphia area,

but it's just as good to visit the eBay store if you're not. Follow at Evans Cards on Twitter for weekly updates and card releases like Evan's. Evans on Facebook and heads to Evansportsnj.com for more info, including the always updated eBay store. That's Evansportsnj.com online and at Evans cards on Twitter and tell them that the guys from Fantasy Points.com sent you. Ross, I've been scheduling 32 of these. So like we have to do them like ahead of time. Like I have to make sure that I'm getting to people, you know, when they have time to make sure that I can get this out ahead of the release. So it's with that disclaimer that I have to tell people. We are recording this podcast on June 30th. If you're listening to it, it's July 5th or

after. So any word on an Alvin Camara suspension can come down at any time in between that. Like you guys know if you listen to the Tampa Bay podcast, Rob Grunkowski retired in between the recording of that and the release of the podcast. The NFL news. machine does not stop Ross. But let's just say no discipline does come down in that short time frame between the recording and the release. What are you hearing about Alvin Camara? What do the saints think about Alvin Camara? What are the expectations regarding a potential suspension for Alvin Camara? Yeah, I think, you know, when you look at the CBA, when it comes to any type of violent, you know, acts and things like that, first time offenders, according to the CBA or have a, you know, six

six game suspension is what the CBA calls for, the Code of Conduct, rather, calls for. So I think that that would be the expectation. His hearing is set for August. It was supposed to be, it's already been continued twice, once because the evidence wasn't presented to his team. And then the second time, because the evidence wasn't presented to his team with enough time to review before that new continued date. So it was continued again to August.

So, you know, things probably won't move very quickly at all until after that, because the NFL usually waits for the legal process to wrap up before they jump in and kind of go through their process. And a couple of reasons for that is because, A, you don't want to suspend somebody and then the charges be dropped and maybe that would have impacted what that suspension would have been. And then B, you don't want to do anything that would kind of publicly sway a court one way or another based upon saying, well, we the NFL think he's guilty ahead of what the legal process actually has to say about it. So, you know, things are going to kind of move at a bit of a snail's pace for the moment. but once things get started, they should get started. And my expectation would be a six-game suspension as what's laid out in the Code of Conduct Policy, but all of that, of course, depends upon what happens in the court of the law.

And obviously, we know that. I mean, he's a critical piece of this offense, if not the most critical piece of the offense. Without Alvin Camara, the Saints offense will change significantly. What would you expect that offense to look like? Obviously, Sean Payton's no longer there, but Pete Carmichael is. what would you expect the offense and maybe the backfield rotation to look like if Camara were to be suspended for six games? Yeah, I think if we rolled with today's roster, you would look at the Saints very likely using a committee to replace Alvin Camara as opposed to trying to replace Alvin Camara within the committee, if that makes sense. So instead of you have things, yeah, right, you're not going to go out there and say, hey, all right, Mark Ingram, you're taking 70% of snaps now because we're replacing, you know, Alvin Camer's 70% of snaps.

they're more likely to say, hey, they need, you know, 40% from this back, 40% from this back, and maybe 20% from another back. And that's kind of the way that it would all work out. So Mark Ingram, of course, would be the lead on today's roster. We'll see if they, you know, pursue another option or maybe somebody gets cut free during training camp during the preseason with roster cuts and things like that as teams try to get down to 53. Teams may look to trade to get assets back as opposed to just cutting a player. So that could work in the the Saints advantage of being able to be a part of that. But of course, the longer you wait, the more competition you stand to gain based upon

other injuries around the league. So if you looked at it right now, I would expect it to probably be, you know, a bit more of a pass heavy offense, one that moves to maybe 30 to 35 passes to 35 to 40 passes. So it's a heavier volume for wide receivers and tight ends in that case. And then probably more of a committee approach and the running backs, which makes it a little bit hard to invest in any of those guys from, you know, more of that maybe 40 percent. standard. So let me just do a follow-up behind Mark Ingram right now. We're talking open competition with a bunch of the guys who have been there and then maybe Abrams Smith, the UDFA they just signed.

Yeah, I think you would probably see Mark Ingram and Tony Jones Jr. being the two kind of main focuses there. And then some competition there between Abram Smith, who's the undrafted free agent out of Baylor and then a guy that's actually been with the Saints for multiple years now in that kind of running back three special teams position in Dwayne Washington. And I think that the thing that puts those two guys in most direct competition is that Abram Smith for the first two years at Baylor actually played linebacker, didn't play running back until his final year at Baylor. And then he went off for 257 carry 1,600 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns.

But before that, he was a linebacker. And so I think that that position for the Saints on their depth chart, RB3, has always sort of been a reserve running back, but core special teams. And so Abram Smith stands to present as somebody that can challenge during Washington for that role a little bit, probably most immediately. And then I would probably just put Mark Engerman, Tony Jones Jr. as the guys that you would pencil in as being the two ahead of that. So we know you mentioned that James Winston going to have to be expected to throw the ball more than he did last year. And for that to happen, you need more production out of the wide receivers. So let me ask you a question, Ross.

You observe the Saints every day. It's what you do. does Michael Thomas exist? Like is he within the realm of the living right now? What is going on with this guy? Yeah, I mean, look, he's at the facility. He's rehabbing. He's training and they expect him to be back.

I would say at some point during training camp, I would be shocked to see him out there when veterans report, you know, well, veterans report on the 26th, which means the acclamation period will carry through the 30th or the beginning of the following month in August. But I just think that, you know, very likely it's going to be a ramp up period. for him. But he's with the team. He's at the facility. He's getting work in and he's rehabbing under

the team's schedule, which is a really, really good thing to see. So I, yeah, I mean, he's, he's there and he's putting in the work and he's expected to be on the field in 2022. And you would expect him to be their number one receiver. Like, pick up where he left off. Okay. Well, let me let me caveat that. I wouldn't necessarily say pick up where he left off, because remember where he really left off was record breaking 149 receptions and 700 receivers. years and nine touchdowns, right? So I want to be careful about that because I think that oftentimes will say things like, oh, if they get 80% of Michael Thomas back, well, 80% of that is still 119 catches and then over 1,300, 1,300 receiving yards. So of course you're going to be okay,

getting 80% of a record-breaking wide receiver back. I think that what's maybe more likely to look at as a potential sort of return from Michael Thomas is that if you can get his rookie production, which was 92 catches and then over 1100 yards and nine touchdowns, you're very happy with that with his first time back on the field in effectively two seasons when you also have Jarvis Landry as well as Chris Olbe that are going to get into the get into the mix there. So you know, you look at Michael Thomas back in 2016 where he was effectively a number two wide receiver second to Brandon Cooks. He was learning the NFL. He was learning the Sinks very convoluted, complicated West Coast slash air quarryl blend of an offensive system. And he was learning the

Drew Breeze way. And he still produced at a very high level. I think if you can get that from him, you're very happy in terms of, you know, the New Orleans Saints. You might not be happy as a fantasy owner, but you're very happy in terms of what you get from him from the New Orleans Saints, considering the band that's around him. Hey, look, the Saints have been messing with us for fantasy for years here. We're talking, you know, you know how Sean Payton liked, well, oh, he's not there anymore, but he'd like to get his touchdowns to his random guys down by the goal.

Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah, four touchdowns undrafted free agents and all these other things. Oh, of course. Now, though, this, all of a sudden, I mean, you could have made the art. argument, I think actually very easily made the argument last year that the Saints had the worst wide receiver room in the entire NFL, obviously without Michael Thomas. And then you just throwing a bunch of guys out there. The top three receivers on this team are projected to be guys who didn't play SNAP for the Saints last year, Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave.

Now, obviously, they're high on Chris Alave. They traded quite a bit to get Chris Alave, but throw a little bit of a description out for you. Our guy Greg Kosell, who has our prospect guide at fantasy points.com. He really thought Olavé was a certain type of receiver, kind of a smooth glider, a big play type of guy who shouldn't be expected to move the chains on a consistent basis. And I think that's funny that he mentioned that because if you get Michael Thomas back and you sign Jarvis Landry, well, those are two chain moving type of receivers. And that complements Chris Alave very well. Do you think that's how the St. C. Chris Salave within the context of this offense? Yeah, I think so. And I mean, look, he's going to be asked to do a bunch of

different things. He's going to be asked to operate out of the slot. He's going to be asked to operate out wide. He's going to be a clear-out guy. He's going to be asked to be a field treacher. I mean, that's going to be his role as a traditional Z flanker type receiver. But even with Tedgin Jr. years ago, which was the last really true flanker receiver the Saints had outside of maybe Emmanuel Sanders, but he operated as more of a possession guy. But when you look at the way that they utilized, you know, Tedkin Jr. He wasn't just a home run threat. He was somebody that used on, you know, these deep ins, deep outs, these opportunities to be able to take advantage of schemes to, you know, clear out some paths for, you know, some deep overrouts for Michael Thomas. I mean, those guys were

utilized to open up one another's production just as much as, you know, Tedyon Jr. was used as a big time deep threat. And I think that parts of that will remain as it is still in New Orleans St. St. Sean Payton might not be there anymore, but the, you know, the main archetype that remains for the New Orleans Saints, or architect rather as the remains for the New Orleans Saints and their coaching staff would be Pete Carmichael who helped to build that offense. And of course, Doug Marone, who's now there as an offensive line coach, he was a part of

the way that that offense looked back 2006, 2008 as well. So I think when you look at that, those pieces will still be there. But I think that you also give James Winston somebody that kind of serves, I think about Brasad Perriman who went off at the end of the 2019. season for 113, 1002, 134 yards in each of those last three games and four touchdowns over those three games, but 17 games worth of production out of a similar style receiver, not that level of production because you won't have the injuries that the Bucks had at that time, hopefully, but you put Chris Olavé in a situation where he can be that guy that's averaging, you know,

somewhere between 15 to 20 yards per catch, realistically, you know, on a game by game basis. Yeah, so I'm looking at Ted Ginn's numbers and let's say 2017, which was the best of Ted Ginn in New Orleans. He played 15 games. He had he had 787 receiving yards, four touchdowns, average basically 50 plus receiving yards per game. Good, solid numbers. Like, but from a fantasy perspective, and that's what we're doing here, kind of inconsistent. But still overall, the Saints would have been really happy with that production. within the context of their offense. Do you think that's a fair expectation for Chris Ilave? I think that that's a pretty good expectation for him to be around,

somewhere around like that 50 to 60 catch range and then somewhere between 700 to 800 yards, five or so touchdowns. The thing to really keep in mind is that in 2017, you also had Alvin Camara hogging up 81 receptions in that season, right? For a Drew Breeze whose arm was still good in 2017, but was certainly declining throughout the season. So I think that those factors are things that make. maybe aren't necessarily there for you because you're potentially looking at a six-game suspension for Alvin Tamara.

And then you're looking at a guy in James Winston who, you know, isn't short for any arm strength by anyone's structure of the imagination. But I do think still that a realistic expectation of, you know, 50 for 700, 60 for 800 is something that makes sense for Chris Olav. I don't know that the Saints will have 2,000-yard receivers in the end in the 2020 season. I think they have the talent to do that, but I just don't know that that's necessarily where the offense is going to be. coming into this season with sort of trying to make sure that you're putting James Winston in positions to succeed. And so I would say that that's probably most realistic for Chris Olbe. How much did the Saints think Jarvis Landry has left at this point? Because we know he's a certain type of receiver, right? Like he was never a deep threat. But, you know, in the context,

within the slot, moving the chains, he probably can still do some of that. Yeah. And that's what you're looking for, right? I mean, you look at the, they gave him a one-year contract, right? They gave him a one-year contract for $3 million that's worth up to six. So he's got some, you know, incentives that are built in there. The same are usually pretty good at making sure that players hit their incentives and that, you know, that players get that money. But, you know, for the most part, I mean, that tells you everything that you need to know. They look at his incentives right now as being, you know, catch number percentage, 55, 65, 75, 75, those all get him get him bonuses and then the additional percentages that he has are for like five receiving touchdowns

and then you know some combination of six hundred and seven receiving yards and a playoff birth right so those are the things that they're that they're looking at so if you look at what they built into their into the escalators there they expect him to play over 50 percent of snaps they expect them to get somewhere between 55 to 75 catches and 607 receiving yards which tells you very much that he's going to be a possession guy he's going to be a guy that's going to help them move the change which helps them very much from a team perspective as they were you know a team that struggled a lot on third downs. They had, you know, amongst the top, or the bottom five in terms of number of first

downs they had. They were at the top of the NFL in terms of punts and punt yardage allowed. So those are the things that end up getting impacted by Jarvis Landry's presence. But that's more of a team focus than it is an individual player focus, which would be more beneficial on a fantasy side. Ross, I mean, you know this team inside and out. So I'm not at all embarrassed to ask you this question that I've been asking all of our guests.

Maybe a player we haven't discussed thus far on this offense, who's got to show. to produce more than maybe the average fantasy player would think. Do you have a name in mind for that? Yeah, I think I look at wide receiver Deonté Hardy. He's going to be somebody that's going to be a little bit of a home run hitter. But, you know, look, injuries are the biggest X factor in the NFL. Do we know what Michael Thomas is going to be in 2022? Do we know that he's going to be able to play a full season in 2022? If not, and if he misses any level of time, that's going to bump guys like Marquist, Calloway, and Deonté Hardy into more snaps. But those guys, are going to see snaps, even if those three wide receivers remain at the top.

This is an offense that has, you know, endless amounts of personnel groupings that they'll end up putting out there, which is one of the reasons why it's so hard to track them as a fantasy team and everything as a fantasy producing entity. But when you look at a guy that has already built chemistry with James Winston, that can be a home run hitter and that can also show that he is probably your best player with the ball in his hands, it means that the Saints are going to put the ball in his hands. So Deonti Hardy might be one of those guys where if you're in maybe like a 12 team league or something like that or if you're in a deep wide receiver league, that might be worth rolling a little bit of a dice on toward the end of your draft. Our guy Scott Barrett is going to be, that is going to be music to his ears.

Now, Ross, I cannot let you go without asking because I don't know how deep in the weeds with fantasy you are. But eligibility is much more of a question in like fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues than it is in fantasy football leagues. but this year, Taysam Hill has tight end eligibility in fantasy football. I know he's converting to tight end. How much does that actually matter? Will his role actually be pretty much the same as what we've seen in the past? Because really, the way I'm looking at it, if I'm in a league, I get a guy as a tight end who might get some quarterback plays.

That's kind of appealing to me. Yeah, absolutely. And I think you're still going to get that. I don't know how many times he's going to throw passes in 2020. to, but he'll still be utilized as, you know, a read option quarterback in certain, certain situations, he'll be used probably to come in and do a couple of, you know, pace changing plays every now and then, and then he's going to actually play snaps at tight end as opposed to the couple here and there that you end up seeing over the course of the past few seasons.

So I think that what you've seen over the past couple of seasons is maybe more quarterback snaps for him and less over in terms of lining up in line, lining up as a, you know, a true why, however it is that they want to deploy him or use him even out of the slot. Now you're going to see it kind of flipped in reverse. Maybe early, you look at maybe the last or the first maybe five or six games of the 2021 season, his production there before the Washington game where he took that really, really terrible hit and was out with a concussion for a little while. That will be his usage, I think more akin to what we saw then coming here in 2022. You absolutely must follow Ross Jackson. He's at Ross Jackson, Nola.

on Twitter. Follow and subscribe the Locked-on Saints podcast. Literally, you just recorded one this morning. So you went from the Locked-on Saints podcast to the Fantasy Points podcast seamlessly, Ross. I really appreciate that. And you can check his work out at the Saints Wire as well. Ross, you're the best, man. Thank you so much for doing the heavy lifting on the podcast. As you can tell, I'm not 100%. But thank you so much for this. We hope to have you back on soon. But if not, I mean, all your works out there, if you, if you care about the Saints, follow Ross. Ross, thanks so much. Jim. Hey, Joe, absolutely pleasure to be here with you, buddy. You let me know when you want me back and I'm here for you. Don't you worry about it. I appreciate you. I really do appreciate it.

You can follow me on Twitter at FG underscore Dolan. I promise I will sound better soon. But hey, the show must go on. We'll bring you more from the franchise focus podcast series here at Fantasy Points.com over the next few weeks. Catch you later, everybody. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate and review on your favorite platform and come join the roster at fantasy points.com.