Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Franchise Focus: San Francisco 49ers

Episode Date: June 29, 2022

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) invites 49ers Rush Podcast Host John Chapman (@JL_Chapman) to discuss the upcoming season for the San Francisco 49ers. The Franchise Focus Podcast series is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy (@UnderdogFantasy). New users can sign up to Underdog using promo code FANTASYPTS for up to $100 in bonus cash on their first deposit. Visit fantasypoints.com/underdog for more info. The podcast series is also sponsored by Evan's Sports Cards & Collectibles (@evanscards). Follow @EvansCards on Twitter for weekly updates and card releases, Like on Facebook, and head to evanssportsnj.com for more info, including the always-updated eBay store. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Fantasypoints.com and the 2022 franchise focus series is sponsored by Underdog Fantasy, the best and easiest way to play fantasy sports, with no waivers, trades, or lineup setting for season-long drafts. New users can sign up to Underdog Fantasy Fantasy, PTS, for up to $100 in bonus cash on their first deposit. That's promo code FantasyPTS. Head to FantasyPoint.com slash Underdog for more information. Now let's get to the show. It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle,

from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hi, everyone, Joe Dolan here, and it is the franchise-focused podcast series at FantasyPoint.com for the 22 NFL season. I hope everybody has been enjoying all the best. beat writer analyst interviews that we've done so far. I hope everybody's going to keep listening to all the fantastic interviews and the fantastic podcast that we have coming up as you learn about each and every NFL team heading into training camp for the 2022 NFL season. It's been wonderful bringing all these to you.

And I'm going to bring you a little bit of a different podcast today. And it's kind of a funny story. So if you sit back and just give me a little bit of a second, get a word from our sponsors in here. I'll tell the story about John Chapman, who's today's guest on the podcast to talk 49ers. But first, I have to let you know that the franchise focus series

is brought to you by Evans SportsCard's and Collectibles. The best place for cards, collectibles, well, hence Evans, Evans, sports cards, and collectibles. It's also good for autographs and more. All of our fantasy points memorabilia giveaways are from Evans. They always have the latest boxes and releases from

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Releases this week include the 2021 Panini contenders slash optic football set, the 2022 Panini select baseball set. That's Evans SportsNJ. online and at Evans cards on Twitter and tell them that the guys from fantasy points.com sent you. So I've been reaching out to a bunch of people and the response rate has been fantastic, by the way, for these podcasts at FantasyPoints.com. And John Chapman, who's today's guest talking 49ers, he was on with me and Ross Tucker on the Fantasy Feast podcast a number of weeks ago.

And I obviously put that in my mind, oh, John was a great guest on that. I'll just reach after him when I'm doing the 49ers podcast. So just as I've been reaching out to everybody, kind of a boilerplate type of message, and I'm like, look, hey, all I'm asking for is like 15, 20 minutes of your time. You know, nothing huge, just a really brief kind of rundown for fantasy. I said, basically, I've been telling people it's stuff you can answer in your sleep, like stuff you've been thinking up for a while, but something that's going to provide a lot of value for the subscribers. So I asked John and he's like, sure, I'd love to do it.

And so my next follow-up question is, well, what's a good time? Well, I asked John, what's a good time to do the podcast? Like, hey, are you available next week? Are you available tomorrow? Stuff like that. What time of day? And I didn't hear back from him for like 25, 30 minutes. And he's like, oh, you wanted this to be an interview?

And I was like, yeah. And he goes, well, I actually just recorded the whole thing myself. So I essentially gave him like a three-time. and there was a little wires crossed and he just decided, look, I'm just going to record the podcast myself. I have a podcast. As a matter of fact, John Chapman is the host of the 49ers Rush podcast. He's the creator of the 49ers Rush podcast. He is fantastic on that podcast. If you have any interest in the 49ers, you should be listening to it. And he should be following John on Twitter at JL underscore Chapman. John is fantastic. As opposed to

like just scrapping all the good work he did. I was just like, why don't we just, I'll just record an intro, we'll, we'll attach it to your podcast. And then I don't have to talk, which is kind of good, because you might notice I still have the, I think the COVID frog in my throat going down. But it's perfect that John was able to do this. It worked out. It was kind of a funny story. But without further ado, I want to give you John Chapman and his franchise focus breakdown on the San Francisco 49ers. Here he is. This is John Chapman with the 49ers Rush podcast, bringing you everything you need to know about the fantasy implication of the 49ers in 2022. Now, there's expected to be some changes for the 49ers this year.

Trey Lance, the third round pick that the 49ers targeted traded up a ridiculous amount for, steps in at quarterback for and looks like Jimmy Garoppos on his way out. What does this mean for the offense? Now, any Kyle Shanahan or Shanahan father, son, whatever, offense is going to look the same. A lot of running plays. Well, here's what's crazy about with Trey Lance. I expect even more running plays in 2022 than we're traditionally used to seeing in a Kyle Shanahan offense. So, if we look just back at 2021, the 49ers finished with the fifth most rushing attempts last year.

However, that came out to 29.9.4.4.5.4.5.5.5.5.5. attempts per game. Basically right at 30. Kyle Shanahan is notorious for saying his press conferences. Our goal is to get to 30 runs a game. They generally win whenever. I think the record's like 23 and 0 when they rush for over 30 attempts. Well, here's what's nuts.

In the two starts that Trey Lance had last year, they averaged 33.4 rushing attempts per game. That's an additional four full rushing attempts per game, over 17 games stretch. You can do the math. That's a lot more rushing attempts. Now, do I think all those are going to be, Trey Lance? I don't think so.

And it's going to bring more fantasy production to the running backs, whoever that's going to be. And we'll talk about that in a second. But understand this. When you have a mobile quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo is never even close to a mobile quarterback. And even with Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers would still run zone read plays, where it looks like the quarterback is reading the defensive end or the linebacker and, you know, giving the ball to the running backer keeping it, which he gave it every time. Trey Lance does not have to run.

And one of the probably most downplayed effects in fantasy football, mobile quarterbacks help the running backs more than anybody else in fantasy because that backside defensive end or backside linebacker has to hesitate now because Trey Lance's threat at keeping the ball and running off the edge. What does this mean for the running backs? It means that the cutback lanes are much more wide open. And it's true 11 on 11 football, which Shanahan has referenced many times with Trey Lance, it gives the running back's extra creases to bust explosive plays, which brings me to my next point.

There will be many more explosive plays in the 49ers offense in 2022 than there was 2021. I know you're thinking like, oh, Debo, Kittle, we're used to seeing explosive plays. Well, get this. If you just look at average yards per play, which is a key metric whenever you're, you know, breaking down functionality of different offenses and or defenses. If you look at what they were able to do last year with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, they averaged 6.3 yards per play when Jimmy Garapolo was under center. In the 10 quarters, Trey Lance was back there, 7.76 yards per play.

That's an 18% increase in total offensive production just in those 10 quarters. A lot of that has to do with, yes, Trey can run, but even more, More than that, he has a rocket arm, probably top five in the NFL as far as just strength in his arm. Doesn't mean the accuracy is there. Still questions for sure on Trey Lance and the deep ball. But Jimmy Garoppolo was notorious for never testing deep. One of the fewest passes attempted past 20 air yards in the NFL, him and Drew Brees.

When Drew Brees retired, he kind of took that show all on his own. Trey Lance is not that guy. He is a sling it guy. So expect many more explosives in the running game, many more explosives in the passing game. Now, if we go back to the running back personnel, the 49ers spent a third round pick this year on Ty Davis Price, running back out of LSU. What does that mean? You have Elijah Mitchell, Debo, what does that outlook look like? And is Trey Sermon completely toast?

Because the previous year in 2021, they traded up in the third round to go get Tray Sermon and he never really got that playing time. Well, let me sort it out for you. Elijah Mitchell is going to be the guy by a lot, by a considerable amount. John Lynch, Kyle Shanahan, and Anthony Lynn, the new running back coach for the 49ers. When they were asked about Ty Davis Price and why they drafted them,

every single one of them used the exact same phrase. We really wanted a one-two punch. What does that mean? You know what your first punch is, That's Elijah Mitchell. They're hoping TDP or Ty Davis Price can step in and be that second guy. Now, I think that the majority of carries is definitely going to go to Elijah Mitchell. I'd probably say about 55%.

Then I'd say about 30% to Ty Davis Price. Then the rest will be mixed to third down backs, Trey Lance, you know, jet sweeps, whatever. But the one thing I will say about Ty Davis Price, if that's somebody you're targeting, understand he could definitely lead this team in touchdowns. He is a short yardage bell cowl. He is a goal line. I mean, he's a big old boy. And so I think that's definitely the role that they want.

I think Elijah Mitchell is going to dominate carries. But once they get into short yard situations, I could see TDP coming in there and that being his entire role. So if you're looking at yards, if you're looking at touchdowns, hopefully that provides some perspective there. Tray Sermon. Now, he came back this year and in minicamp looked slimmer. You could tell he worked on his footwork, which was a problem last year. All through training camp was just feet were bad.

Definitely much more nimble on the feet. You could tell it was a point of emphasis for him. However, he was in the back of the running back rotation behind guys like Jeff Wilson, Jr. Behind guys like Jamichael Hastie. So I don't think that he is coming into this season with anything guaranteed. as far as, you know, where he's going to be in the rotation. He's got to earn it. And we'll have to see.

Now, I will say this with the 49ers running back situation. There has been a myriad of injuries, six years straight to the running backs there. So it's not bad to have the third or fourth flyer in a Shanahan run offense because, you know, whoever it is, they're going to get a ridiculous, they're going to get those two to three games where, you know, that's just a game winner that you can just pick up off of waivers. So if you have a deep bench, definitely somebody. to stash and see what that looks like with Trey Sermon. But I don't think that there is any plan outside of injuries for him to be a guy, maybe third down back, best case scenario for Tray Sermon.

Now, what to do with Debo? You know, you had all of the trade requests, trade demands, doesn't want to run the ball anymore, you can go on and on and on. Let me tell you this with certainty. Debo Samuel will be a 49er for the long haul. Why? He has no leverage. If Debo wants to play, hardball this year and not sign an extension, which he will, he's only going to make $4 million this year. Whereas if he signs an extension, you make $22 million. Well, let's say, okay, he wants to make his $4 million, then he'll be traded next year. No, he won't, because the 49ers could still franchise him, and that would be less than the $22 million that they would owe him this year if he did sign an extension.

So Debo will have to agree to make less money not only this year, but also next year. Just do not see it happening. He reported to mandatory mini camps, was taking, you know, he didn't dress but he was running around doing sprints on the field chopping up with the guys nothing but positive things from everybody the deal would get done 49ers signed extend all their players in training camp you just got to just be patient on this one now once he signs his extension what's that look like for him well his rushing attempts will be going down i guarantee you that it'd be one of the maybe unspoken parts of his contract where he does not get any more than two or three carries per game on average, unless it's the playoffs or blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

That will never be made known to the public, but I promise you it's going to be there. I've been inside those negotiations. Now, does he need that for fantasy production? I don't think he does. If you look at last year, Deep only had six receiving touchdowns. Well, guess what? Three out of those six receiving touchdowns came from Trey Lance in only 10 quarters of playing. So he is somebody that could see increased production in passing touchdowns.

but a decrease in the rushing yards and rushing touchdown. Remember, this is a guy that put up over 1,400 yards receiving last year, despite having eight games with six or fewer targets. He's not dependent upon a heavy target percentage or target low from a team because he's just so explosive. A lot of those, even though they're not rushing attempts, they're screens or, you know, the little jet sweep where the quarterback tosses it in front. That counts as a reception.

And he, we saw against the Bears, where he takes it 82 yards, right? Like, he can create on his own. He will still be a wide receiver one. But will he be a league winner like he was last year? I'm not sure. Elite production for sure, but I do not see him battling, not without the rushing production. He's still going to be a wide receiver one, but you got to kind of pump the brakes just a little bit. You're not buying him at last year's value. You can't do that. You can't do that. And you're not buying them at last year's production. You can't do that either.

But will he be a thousand-yard receiver? Yes, health is the only thing that could get in his way from stopping that. Now, is there anybody else on my radar on this 49ers offense? I haven't even mentioned Kittle, haven't mentioned Iyuk, who are both solid plays, no issues. But for those of you that are in your deeper leagues, this is somebody you should keep an eye out. Joanne Jennings absolutely turned it on last year during the playoff stretch. had the best offseason of anybody. This is mentioned by Kyle Shanahan, by the way,

and did nothing this entire, you know, the entire off season, except follow Trey Lance around the country, practicing wherever Trey went, he was there. And it has shown in mini-camps, OTAs, all those things. Shanahan named him a leader before Brandon Ayuk in his last press conference, Charverius Ward. The new high-priced free agent cornerback brought over to the chiefs, Whenever he said, who's the hardest to cover?

He hesitated none and said, Juan Jennings is by far the hardest wide receiver to cover out here. And Shanahan went on to say later in that press conference that Juan Jennings creates more separation. He's a better separation guy than any other wide receiver on the team. And it's not even close. And the best thing about Jennings, he's free. Again, this is a deeper league format because this is somebody that you can get for free.

last pick of the draft, flyer, and yeah, you got new quarterback stepping in. He's young. He's only 24 years old. There's a lot to like about Joanne Jennings. Again, this is a deep flyer, but somebody that I like because he actually has a relatively high ceiling because he has a guaranteed snap count as that third wide receiver. And he just continues to impress, whether it's Tray Lance, Kyle Shanahan, the defense, everybody is singing this guy's praises. So somebody to watch out for. not that many 24-year-old wide receivers flying under the radar on an offense that's about to step up its production and explosive plays. So hopefully you enjoyed this breakdown. And if you want any more contact on the 49ers, my name is John Chapman with the 49ers Rush podcast.

Thank you for your time. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints. come.