Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Hard Count with Wes Huber - June 6

Episode Date: June 6, 2022

In the premiere episode of Hard Count, Wes Huber (@WesHuberNFL) welcomes in Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey). --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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to help you score more fantasy points. Ladies, Romans, fantasy D. Genes alike. I'm here with you, your host, Wes Huber, and Jake Tribby, my co-host. We're about to kick into gear a new podcast where, at least for today, we're going to debunk some narratives, starting with the 49ers. Please keep sleeping on Elijah Mitchell. I mean, we're talking about the best run blocking O-line in the game. Mitchell just finished a rookie season, top six in attempts per game, touches per game,

and rushing fantasy points per game, topped off by a top five fantasy playoff schedule. I mean, it's just great. I love it. Keep letting him slide, and I'm going to pick him up. Yeah, so for the 49ers, I said that Trey Lance is going to be right at the forefront of the MVP discussion with a legit chance to win it. I mean, we saw what Shanahan did with RG3. I think all the pieces are in place and that Lance just needs the ball.

Great. Let's move on to the Bears. So Josh Allen, you know, his first year in the league started 11 games. He averaged 2.71 fantasy points per rushing attempt, 53% completion percentage, 181.8 yards per game passing, 0.83 touchdowns to one interception, and 0.29 fantasy points per dropback. Let's go over to Justin Fields. Started 10 games during his rookie season.

2.12 fantasy points per rushing attempt. 59% completion percentage. 180 yards per game. 0.7 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio. 0.28 fantasy points per dropback. There's this narrative being tossed around that Justin Fields, he's just not the future quarterback for the Bears. Look at him alongside the rookie quarterbacks from last year.

Mack Jones, the 21 QB class with 0.397 fantasy points per touch. But Fields, he finished ahead of T Law, Zach Wilson and Davis Mills. His 0.394 fantasy points per touch was 0.0026 fantasy points per touch less than Jones. Come on, people. He's got a future in this game, and it's going to happen sooner than you think? Yeah, I actually 100% agree. So my hot take here is that Justin Fields is going to be the quarterback across all of fantasy who most exceeds as ADP. I mean, I think an ADP of QB18 on Underdog right now is completely ridiculous. And I think a top six, top eight finishes is absolutely in the card. So yeah, I'm 100% on board with that. Love it. So let's move on to the Bengals.

The Cincinnati offensive line allowed 50 quarterback pressures during the 21 playoffs. Then they and they signed Ted Karras. Let's start that over. So the Bengals, let's get into the, you good? Yeah, yeah, sorry. Okay, okay. Well, that's a good thing about a podcast, because we can just cut that out.

So let's switch over to the Bengals. Cincinnati's O-Line was a serious problem during the playoffs. They allowed 50 quarterback pressures in those games last year. after signing Ted Karras, Alex Kappa, and Lio Collins, the projected starting O line permitted an average of 1.73 pressures per game last season. The Patriots led the NFL by allowing eight pressures per game last season. Putting Joe Burrell behind some actual protection is a scary thought. Yeah, I completely agree with that. I actually had a really tough time coming up with how I.

thought the Bengals were going to be better. And I ended up going with that Hayden Hurst is going to be significantly more productive than CJ Usoma. So Usoma was a pretty low-end, tight end for fantasy outside of roughly three big games he had where he scored like, you know, 30 points in every game. So I think Hayden Hurst is going to be roughly 30% more productive than Usoma and end up as a tight-end won this year. You know, remember that Usoma was roughly tied on 22 last season, if I remember correctly. Absolutely. That sounds good. So let's switch over to another serious playoff contender with the bills. So Jamar Chase scored 14 touchdowns on 746 routes last season. That's excellent.

Gabriel Davis has a career touchdown rate that's 38% higher. He leads all wide receivers with at least 68 receptions from the last three seasons with an insane touchdown. rate of 21%. And, you know, we don't want to see, we want to see the type of improvements year to year, right? Well, that number spiked to 24% last year. We're talking serious touchdown potential there in Orchard Park. Yeah, so we saw down the stretch, Isaiah McKenzie absolutely ball out in week 16 against the Patriots, 125 yards on 12 targets posting a 90 PFF grade. He has pretty great ability, I think, and this is something that I'm not sure I can say I think it's going to happen, but I do think there's a better chance than people give him credit for that.

I say McKenzie could actually beat out James and Crowder for the starting flower role and end up being a legit fantasy contributor this season outside of this normal gimmick role. Reports out of OTAs are talking that Isaiah McKinney's, McKinsey's on another level of speed. I love that take. Let's move on to the Broncos. You know, after the big addition, you know, a lot of people are asking, is Russell Wilson's play on the decline? Look, the guy just finished a season where he landed in the top five in passer rating, yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, fantasy points per dropback, fantasy points per touch, passer rating under pressure. Are we kidding ourselves? I mean, the professor is the professor for a reason.

Yeah, and I think I totally agree with that take. And I think a lot of people are sort of taking, you know, maybe the hype they should have around Russell Wilson and throwing it at Javanta Williams. Well, my hot take here is that Melvin Gordon's still going to capture 35%, maybe 40% of this backfield production. And Javons is going to have a really hard time becoming an RB1 this year. That would be interesting to see. So we'll have to see how that plays out. So let's move on to a team that has a lot of questions.

not playing for this season in the Browns. We're likely looking at a half a year suspension for Deshawn Watson. But the other one that we need to consider is, is Cleveland going to move on from Kareem Hunt when he becomes an unrestricted free agent next season? Look, he just finished off a season where he had a few injuries that really held him back. But a top 10 level of running back talent may be hitting the open market in 23. He only finished 25 touches less than Rashad Penny. But he posted top 10 finishes and touchdown rate, elusive rating, yards per route run, detached route percentage, fantasy points per carry, and fantasy points per touch.

Obviously, Nick Chubb, he's not going anywhere as the RB1 in Cleveland. But Kareem Hunt, man, he's legit. And, you know, if he hits the open market, we're talking about a serious player available. Yeah, yeah, completely agree. So after I listened to Scott Barrett's post-draft presser, which is a fantasy points podcast that absolutely everyone should listen to, one of the things he pointed out was that the Cleveland coaches really liked David Bell in the spot, which I think is just the perfect place for him. So my hot take here is that David Bell finishes as a wide receiver three by fantasy points per game,

and it's in the discussion for offensive rookie at the year. That would be, I would love that. You know, I met the kid at the combine, and I was impressed, and I hated to see his 40-time, you know, holding his draft stock back, but it was an excellent gift for the Browns. Let's move on to the Buccaneers. Until we get a concrete ETA on Chris Godman's return from his ACL injury, a dynamite opening in the starting lineup is up for grabs.

Look, Mike Evans and Ron, Russell Gage, they're locked in. I mean, definitely invests there. But Byron Leftwich has made it clear that the guy that is run away with that wide receiver four role is Cyril Grayson, former track star at LSU. If his numbers qualified from last season, Grayson registered top five values in yards per route run, air yards per target, rate of 20 plus yard completions, fantasy points per route and he topped everyone with his 17.7 yards per target.

If Godwin doesn't enter the season ready to go, you got to go out and get some Cyril Grayson stock. Yeah. So I actually, I had a pretty similar take in regards to Godwin, but just with a different player. So I actually had Russell Gage is going to finish the year as the Bucks wide receiver two by fantasy points for game. even after Godwin returns from injury, Gage will, I still think Gage will be tremendously productive and obviously we'll finish the year as a fantasy wide receiver won as a result. Gage's efficiency numbers last year were very, very strong, 1.96 yards per outrun, 77 PFF receiving grade.

I believe you're ranked top 20 in both of those metrics. And, I mean, he absolutely went off down the stretch. Granted, that was without Calvin Ridley. But still, I mean, he's a very, very capable player. And Tom Brady, you know, Tom Brady wanted him on the team. This, you know, this isn't like a scrub. This is a really good player in Russell Gage. So I'm excited to see what he can do.

No question. And, you know, both are former Grayson and Gage or former LSU players who obviously are well aware of each other. And I wouldn't be surprised if he had a hand and dropping some of that tape on onto Brady. So, yeah, don't even, don't even sleep on Russell Gage. This guy's legit. Let's move on to the Cardinals. So James Connor, you say, when he's healthy.

sure. You know, I mean, he had an insanely good season last year, considering what happened the year prior, scoring touchdowns everywhere. But watch the hell out for Dorel Williams. With C.E.H. dead last year, Williams emerged as an elite receiving back. He only finished 0.074 fantasy points per touch behind Conner's eighth best number. If Dorell Williams, is not the RB2 at the end of the year. I mean, this is a guy that could potentially slide in and take over RB1, considering Conner's health history. So we'll see.

I love this offense still. I'm not buying into all the crap out there about Kyler. I think he's going to be fine. The offense is going to be fine. I think they could even move on from the nuke era. I could care less that he's not going to play the first six games. I love me some Dorel Williams. Yeah, I think that's a fantastic take.

So mine here is going to be that I just, I'm totally out on Ron Dale Moore at ADP. And I think he's actually going to have zero games potentially with double digit fantasy points. I mean, you look at his A dot and it's 1.3. And unless you're getting, you know, as a wide receiver, double digit targets for game are close to it, it's going to be really hard to produce with that kind of an ADOT. And I actually had a tangential take as well, which was Marquis Brown is also going to be 30% more productive than D'Andre Hopkins, even after Hopkins returns. I think Marquise Brown is going to be a huge part of this offense and isn't just going to slide right into the Christian Kirk role. You know, Kyler Murray clearly wanted him, and I think Kyler's going to want to get the ball.

No question. It's one of his best friends. There's no question. It would not be a surprise to see Hollywood, become the number one beyond Hopkins's returns. So moving on to the Chargers. So why should we draft Austin Echler, and you're going to love this, Jake, ahead of CMC and PPR? Look, I know he was hurt last year, but we still got plenty of snaps out of McCaffrey and the seven games played. Echler, 25% more fantasy points per touch, 37% more fantasy. percent more fantasy points per carry, 15% more fantasy points per game, 39% lower rate of negative or zero yardage carries,

24% higher rate of goal line carries, only 4% fewer targets per game. Echler ran detached routes at a 17% higher rate. I'm not saying stick of four, McCaffrey, I'm just saying you draft Ackler before an end. I mean, I think I think that's a pretty solid take. I have Ackler is my number three players overall, so I'm really not that far off from yet. So here I had, I actually have bet quite a bit of money on this so far. I have Justin Herbert wins MVP and the Chargers are the Super Bowl champion. I mean, you look one to 22. This is a fantastic

roster. And Herbert's, I mean, I don't think anyone questions that Herbert is a fantastic, fantastic quarterback. So yeah, and Staley's right up there for coach of the year. Like all the pieces seem to be in place for the chargers to really do some damage in the postseason and for Herbert to be right there in the MVP conversation. Love it. I've already moved Herbert ahead of Patrick Mahomes in the dynasty rankings. So I'm on over that. I've even thought about it for best ball this year. Yeah, I'm all over that narrative. So let's move on to Mahomes' chiefs. Stop drafting Juju Smith Schuster. Sky Moore is the guy in the slot.

Miko Hardman, he's going to be on the field. You know, they're still trying to justify that second round investment. Oh, yeah. And no other tight-in has run more routes detached the last two seasons than Travis Kelsey. He'll likely make the final 53. I'm not saying he's going to be cut, but I wouldn't be shocked about it. But is 1.28 yards per route run combined from the last two seasons, ranked 78th best. If you can't thrive underneath with Big Ben at quarterback, you're just not good at football.

Yeah, so I said here that I think MBS is actually going to be the most productive receiver, not Juju, not even Sky Moore. You look at training camp reports so far, and everyone's saying, you know, Marquez-Veldes Scanling is the guy who, looks the best, who looks the smoothest in his routes, and who looks, you know, the most, you know, like, coherent with Mahomes. And if you follow the money, I mean, MBS got by far the biggest contract of any of the veterans in that receiving group. So I could see a really big year for Marquez-Veldes-Caling. Oh, absolutely. But, you know, keep in mind, I said, Sky Moore is the guy in the slot.

Yeah. For the Colts, are we really expecting an age 37 revival for Matt Ryan? He's been so bad the last three years that his fantasy points per dropback has fallen outside of the top 20 quarterbacks against cover 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6. He ranks outside of the top 25 in air yards per attempt and passer rating. Do we really think Michael Pittman Jr., who I love, by the way, and Alec Pierce are going to save his career? this is going to be about as run heavy of an offense as any. I love Naheem Hines as well. When a coach comes out and says, hey, invest in this guy in fantasy,

you definitely listen, right? But it's not enough for me to toss Matt Ryan into a tier that he shouldn't be at this stage in his career. Yeah, so I completely agree. But one thing that I do see with the Colts is, team that will compete for a playoff spot. And I think, you know, if Matt Ryan can play well enough, that they could go on a playoff run. So my hot take here was actually that they're going to make the AFC championship game. I don't think they'll make the Super Bowl. But I could see, you know, Matt Ryan going on a bit of a run kind of knowing that this is, you know, this is one of his last few seasons

where he has a chance to be really productive and do something special. So I like the colds to make the AFD championship game and hopefully losing to the Chargers if my bet to go right. Well, moving on to their former quarterbacks team, Carson Wince with the commanders. You know, he's not as bad as the Colts might try to imply, and he was better than Matt Ryan. You know, and if we consider Carson Wins is one of the five best cover two quarterbacks in the game, and he was just provided with the top cover two wide receiver from the 21 college season in Jehan Dodson. He's also going into the year with the top wide receiver one that he's ever played with in Terry McLaren. If Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas are healthy, watch the F out.

Yeah, Logan Thomas over the last two seasons. has been a tight end one. In his five healthy games last season, he averaged eight and a half, half-PPR fantasy points, which would have bested tight ends like Zach Ertz and Kyle Pitt. It would have been good enough for tight end 10 over the full season. So, yeah, my take here is that Logan Thomas is going to be a tight end one, and he's massively underrated as a fan. Look, we got to go over to America's team, and we got to hit it hard.

So, you know, if I'm listening to everybody, you know, let's just stick a fork in Ezekiel Elliott. I get it. His crazy hairstyles are annoying. He's always smiling and showing off his stupid abdominal muscles. Come on, man. Put them away. Toss aside the fact that Zeke tops all running backs in total yards and touchdowns over the last six years.

Just keep in mind that the Cowboys' O-Line was truly carried by Zach Martin, Tyrone Smith and Lylell Collins, but the guard play across from Martin was brutal, which is a big part of that run blocking rotation there for Dallas. Adding Tyler Smith in the first round to work across from Martin is a big deal. And Tony Pollard's presence is actually a plus for Elliot. And I don't think that Elliott and Pollard are in any way at odds are in a direct competition with one between each other.

I think their main concern is winning. I'm telling you, Ezekiel Elliott is going way, way later than he should. And I love it. Yeah, yeah, I think that's a great take. I mean, I feel like a lot of this offense is underrated for fantasy, because they're going to be one of the best offenses in the league. Last year, the Cowboys actually led the league in points per game at over 30. This year, I think they are going to rank top three in points per game again.

But I also think that they're going to miss the playoffs. And I have a slightly different take for the NFC East. And we can get to that. All right. So before we do that, let's jump over to the dolphins. And I'm going to toss a film reference at you without supporting data. Look, Tua is unable to throw deep narrative is outrageous. It's a belief that's about to be obliter.

Find me another team that played with a more pathetic 21 wide receiver rotation after their number one Jalen Waddle. And then tell me how that quarterback managed to accomplish his vertical game. It didn't happen. And this is, this is, Tua has a beautiful deep ball. It doesn't matter that he can't throw the ball 60 yards down the field like, you know, Justin Fields or Josh Allen. Tua has the type of accuracy that it takes to win in the NFL. And they just added the mighty mouse of athletic phenomenons in Tyreek Hill. He's going to open up the offense for everybody.

If the dolphins ever add a freaking running back, they're going to be pretty tag on good. Yeah. And speaking of dolphins running backs, consensus right now seems to drift towards Chase Edmonds being the lead back. But my thought is, why can't it be Rahim Moster? Rehne Moster is the second most efficient rusher of all time. You set the minimum at 250 carries. He averages 5.7 yards for carry over his whole career. He could easily emerge as the Dolphins lead rusher and the lead fantasy score out of this backfield, even though ADP doesn't suggest it at all. I love it. I really do. I think Moster, he's highly underrated. I don't think he's out. He's not the cornerstone in the

backfield for the for the dolphins but for this year he was a great addition so moving on to the eagles look devante smith davante smith is good but jalen hurts he hasn't had a true number one during either of his first two seasons in the nfl if you buy into a down 22 season for a j brown upon joining the eagles i'm happy to reap the benefits a j b is a top five white out independent of quarterback play. He ranks 69th and rate of completions of 20 or more air yards. He's a volume possession receiver people and the most physical wide receiver in the game. Philly is going to feed their new star player beyond what he saw with the Titans. Exactly. And I think that extra addition of AJ Brown is going to be really what takes the Eagles over the top and

gets them to win this division. I got the Eagles winning the NFC East over the Cowboys. I love it. I love it. And I completely agree. I think they run away with that division. Moving on to the Falcons, you know, they throw out a starting lineup. It could potentially with 6'5 5 Kyle Pitts, 6 foot 4 Drake London, and 6 foot 5 out and Tate detached. And that's also with 6 foot 2, for Darrell Patterson in the backfield. You know, Patterson, he doesn't, he doesn't do it for me at running back. His, his, his efficiency on handoffs was just, it was atrocious. Just don't even start discounting their receiving threats due to a belief that their skill sets are going to clash.

Spitz, or Pitts, he's the prototype. He is something that we have never seen at the position. London, he's a straight-up bully. And Tate, he's a ladder climbing 50-50 guy. All different, all valuable, all fantasy targetable. Yeah, exactly. And I think because of those weapons, that Marcus Marriota is actually going to be significantly better

than what people think for fantasy. You know, we can't forget that in his first two seasons, he averaged 18.4 fantasy points for game in his rookie year and 17.9 in his sophomore season. So I think that there is certainly low-end QB-1 potential for Marriota in his start. But there's also the real chance that the Balkans that, you know, aren't thrilled with the results and end up, you know, putting Ritter-in for him anyway. So maybe the ADP is correct, but I think Mario-Ot is absolutely going to kill it in a start-to-famination. All right, moving on to the Giants.

You say you want Sequin Barclay at his ADP in the second round. The additions of Brian Dayball and Evan Neal certainly helped the cause. The limiting factor. his time. If Daniel Jones doesn't blow it up right out of the gate, he's gone and years in. Same goes for Barclay. He scored outside

the top 50 qualified running backs, fantasy points per touch, fantasy points per carry, and he was 36th in his wheelhouse, fantasy points per route. Even with all of the athleticism in the world, Sequin's elusiveness has seemingly

evaporated. Yeah, yeah. That's, man, I got to say, I definitely agree with that take. It's tough with Sequin. I have a tough time with that one. I'm going to a different super athlete on the Giants, though. I'm going to say Cadarius Tony actually leads the league in yards per outrun. It's one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL. Last year he ranked 11 in yards per out run.

Granted, that was only on 50 targets. And, you know, alongside that, that he's going to massively exceed his ADP and be a high-end wide receiver too in this giant's often. I love Cadarious, Tony. I really do. The progression he made from his final couple of seasons in college football to what we saw in that Dallas game last year, which I don't care. You extrapolate that over a full season. We're talking about some beast mode right there. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Moving on to the Jaguars. Look, Christian Kirk, we all know he has a clear path to a career year. He's probably going to have it. Evan Ingram might have a decent year as well. Yeah, it's going to be the best armed talent he's played.

with in his career. Just hit the breaks on Travis E.T.N. As a top receiving back. He's good in that regard. No doubt. No doubt. I'm not denying it. But not all that much better than what we already saw from James Robinson. Now, Robinson was recently given the green light to run at OTAs. That backfield will turn into a complete mess if Snoop Connor becomes a goal line vulture like he was at Ole Miss.

it might be best to hit the brakes on the ETN hype train altogether. Yeah, so I am not hitting the brakes on the Trevor Lawrence hype train, even though there doesn't seem to be much of one at this point. Trevor Lawrence's 2% touchdown rate last season was the fourth worst by any quarterback of all time. So I think that he pretty easily doubles his touchdown rate from last season, to a much more reasonable 4% or 5%. And that the Jags look much more like a league average team as a result. I love that take.

And I think, I think Trevor Lawrence, you know, he's got a beautiful deep ball. I'm talking when he goes and he completely puts that arm talent towards a vertical throw, the placement is just beautiful. And I was blown away by that on tape. You know, he's got some other flaws. But I really like his future. And I think we're going to see a lot better out of him. Okay.

Moving over to the Jets. With their addition of Garrett Wilson, the industry appears to believe that. that Elijah Moore is dead to rights. Not so fast. First of all, Wilson is not a vertical guy. He lingers in the intermediate range. He's more of an athlete, a yards after the catch guy.

Moore was a top 15 deep threat last season with his average of 83.4 air yards per game. Second, it's all going to come down to Zach Wilson. We need him to take several steps forward before we'll be able to trust anyone in the offense. Yeah, so I had to go with one of my bearcats here. I'm going Sauce Gardner, defensive rookie of the year. So we have to keep in mind that only Marcus Peters and Marshawn Latimore have won

defensive rookie of the year as cornerbacks over the last 20 years. This is mostly an edge rush reward, but I think Sauce is that kind of generational player who could absolutely win deep. I love it. I love Sauce. Lions, Detroit will not be a seven-win team. The offense will score. we know that much, but that defense still has serious issues at linebacker and most importantly,

in the secondary, moving on. Yeah, I completely agree. So my lion's hot take is that they're only going to win four or five games. That's not the hot take part. It's that they're actually going to rank in the top half of the league in points per game. This is going to be an effective offense. It's just not going to translate to W. 100% agree.

Packers, it was not a promising season. sign to hear slash see Aaron Rogers tossing out the R word this soon after re-upping with the Packers. Maybe time to tap the brakes on our Christian Watson, Amari Rogers, and Alan Lazard investments. And it may be time to start reinvesting in A.J. Dillon, Quadzilla. Yeah, absolutely. So I'm going to the other side of the ball here.

And I'm looking at Rishon Gary to win defensive player at the year. You can bet this right now. It's 80 to 1 on Draft King. And I think this is a fantastic bet. Gary, if you set the cutoff to 300 pass rush attempts, Gary had the highest win rate on pass rush and one of the best PFF rushing grades of any player, right up there with guys like Max Crosby, Miles Garrett,

T.J. Watt. Rishon Gary is a seriously underrated edge rusher, and 80 to 1 for a defensive player of the year is really good off. No question. That Packers defense is nasty. Gary's nasty. Moving on to the Panthers. Matt Coral, the savior.

Even as a third rounder, Matt Coral is going to be another wasted investment by the Panthers. It's one of the most improperly managed rosters in the NFL. Count on Carolina going after one of the big quarterback names in the first round, the 23 draft. Put it on the board. It's going to happen. Yep.

And I don't think anyone's going to be surprised with my take here. It's that Christian McCaffrey is going to be the number one running back in fantasy. So I actually have an article about this. If you want my full thoughts, you can Google RB1, McCaffrey or Taylor, if you're interested in my full reasoning. But really, it just comes down to upside. If McCaffrey's the RB1, he's going to put every other running back so far behind him that you're going to need him to win your lead.

We will see. Moving on to the Patriots, Mac Jones has a noodle arm. That's unable to target from one sideline to the other. Drafting Taekuan Thornton with the 50th pick was the worst pairing of the draft. And Jones's touchdown total was inflated by working behind the top O line in the NFL. That said, you don't need the deep ball when you're short to intermediate accuracy is as good as you'll find in the game. And that O line affords him,

plenty of time to find those underneath receivers when they get open. Do not sleep on Devante Parker, who is completely an intermediate possession receiver. Yeah, 100% agree with that. So when I looked at the market for regular season rushing yards leader, I was absolutely shocked to see Damien Harris behind guys like Cam Acres and Antonio Gibson. I know Ramandre Stevenson is going to be back there competing for touches, but I think Damian Harris could be right up there for the rushing crown

with guys like Derek Henry, Nick Chubb, and Jonathan Taylor. He just needs to get the touch. I think Harris is going to be gone at the end of the year. I don't think they're going to keep, they're going to give him another contract. I think Ramadre is definitely the dynasty guy, but for the 22 season, it's all Damian Harris. Moving on to the Raiders, call it a ground-based offense all you, want. The Raiders' top offensive threats are receivers, and it's not even close.

Josh Jacobs and Kenyon Drake will be unrestricted free agents next year, and Samir White is the slowest sub-4-4 running back in the history of the NFL. Get those eyes up, Zameer. Yeah, so Josh Jacobs last season from week 10 onward was, top 12 in virtually every rushing statistic and ranked fifth in targets for game at over five. So I don't think this is much of a hot take, but Josh Jacobs is going to be a top eight running back for fantasy. His RV, what is it, 23, 24 ADP, I think is just completely ridiculous. I mean, he's a smash six-round thing. Moving on to the Rams.

And by the way, we did not cross our notes together before this recording. We are going at this fresh. We get it. We have conflicting statements here. That's okay. I love it. I'm sure you do as well. Moving on to the Rams.

We need to be given Cam Acres a bit more slack. He rushed back from one of the worst injuries that you can receive in football. And he did it so he could assist his team toward a Super Bowl victory. Mission accomplished. Explosion is always the last trait to return following an Achilles tear. but he appeared angry with the ball on his hands. And when the explosion returns, the old Acres will as well. Yeah, so I actually like that you preface this with the fact that we disagree

because this is certainly one where I disagree with you. So I'm going with Darrell Henderson being the clear cut leading Russia and that he's going to pull a snapshot of around 60% across the whole season, which would rank 9th last year right behind Austin Ackler and right in front of Devin Singletary. So yeah, I'm sorry, Aker's true. third. But I just thought his efficiency in the playoffs last year was really poor. I mean, obviously we could, we could certainly see that turn around. But I think that there's a really good

chance that Henderson is the leading rusher. And right now, draft position just does not suggest that that's even possible. And I get that. Totally 100%. That's why I didn't say, go out and, you know, pick up Cam Acres with your third round pick. I just said give him some slack because I like Kyron Williams, actually. Not a big Hindo guy. I like Kyron Williams. Moving on to the Raiders, Ravens, excuse me, watching the old Ravens attempt to run the league's highest rushing rate from 11 personnel was just stupid. Watching them invest in Charlie Kohler and Isaiah likely after trading Hollywood was a stroke of genius for offensive coordinator Greg Roman. I mean, did he go out and surround Lamar Jackson with receiving talent? No, no, he didn't.

A couple of tight ends, they're not going to change the offensive landscape of the NFL. But bring on the 12 personnel. This is big time for that Ravens backfield. Yeah, so you noted that they didn't load up the receiving core and that they're going to run a lot of 12 personnel. But I don't think that they're done on the receiving end of things. I actually think the Ravens are going to sign Julio Jones. He's going to show that he still has something left in the tank and will be right behind Bateman as their most productive wife. receiver for the season. And I, you know, I think he'd fit in perfectly in those Ravens colors.

I'd love to see it. Well, which would make sense. I mean, 12 personnel, you still need two wide receivers. But just seeing that run game with an extra blocker at all times is, I just love it. Moving on to the Saints, why is nobody talking up James Winston? Chris Olabe is every bit as fast as Jameson Williams. And he's a far more polished receiver. But getting a healthy Michael Thomas back onto the field is what we were all waiting around for when Winston was installed. Even without a number one or a number two last season, Winston led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per touch, per opportunity, whatever you want to call it, not to mention the addition of new starting left tackle Trevor Penning.

We'll likely be without Alvin Kamara for a couple of games, but this Saints' offense is going to score a ton of points. Yeah, absolutely. This is one where we totally line up. I actually think that Jamis is going to get the Saints into the playoffs and that they could challenge the Buccaneers for the top team in the division. I mean, we can't forget in 2019, James Winston led the league in passing yards. Like, this is a quarterback where, you know, when he's playing his best, he's arguably one of the best in the league.

His high-end play is truly elite. Granted, you know, the low end can be pretty bad, too. No question. Talking about low-in, let's talk about the Seahawks. The hawks are paying their kicker, punter, and long snapper more combined dollars than their entire quarterback room. D.K. Metcalfe, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fan are essentially DOA, invest in Kenneth Walker III and Rashad Penny,

and wash your hands of Seattle until at least 20, which is likely when Drew Locke signs his contract with the USFL. Yeah. So I actually, I went a slightly different route here. So I do think the Seahawks are going to end up rolling with Drew Lock at quarterback. But despite this, both D.K. Metcalfe and Tyler Lockett are still actually going to end up being pretty solid basketball contributors. And I only say that because Locke is a tremendously aggressive downfield thrower. PFF has a stat west.

I'm sure you're familiar with big-time throws. Drew Locke always ranks extremely high and big-time throw rate every season because he's very aggressive in throwing the ball down field and every once in a while actually throws a really good ball down field. And that's pretty conducive to best ball scoring because you get those pop games from guys like Metcalf and Lockett. So yeah, I think those guys will be solid in best ball, but I'm not touching any of them season long.

Moving on to the Steelers, it breaks my heart. It truly does. But Chase Claypool's verse. vertical upside is dead. Shifting him into the slot would be a stroke of genius for Matt Canada, and he needs it. Spitting the fewest combined $22 in the NFL on the O line

is a complete slap in the face from outgoing GM Kevin Colbert and incoming Omar Khan. Now, don't give Khan a break. He's the former vice president of the Steelers' football in business. administration. He was involved in this deal. It's bad. Yeah, I'm, I can't say I'm particularly bullish on Claypool. So my take here was that it's going to be Trubisky, not Kenny Pickett,

who actually starts the majority of the games for the Steelers, and that Trubisky is actually going to play well enough that the Steelers are in playoff convention. Are they going to make it? I don't know, but I do think they'll be a little better than expected even given the quarterback scenario. Well, we'll see what happens because it's a similar situation. with the Texans. Definitely not going to make the playoffs. And there's, you know, the way I'm looking at it, the Texans are going to finish the 22 season with more momentum toward their future

than the Jaguars, the Panthers, the Giants, and wait for it, the Titans. And Houston will pass on drafting one of the top quarterbacks in the first round of the 23 draft. Davis Mills provided more than enough for Nick Casario to invest in surrounding him with talent. If you're not aware of how well Davis Mills played, you're behind on your tape study. Yeah, no, I 100% agree. This is actually pretty similar to what I had. So Davis Mills scored at least 15 and a half fantasy points in four of his final six games. And he's being drafted as QB30 right now as if he were really bad for fantasy. Davis Mills is going to be at least a mid-tier quarterback to an average at least fantasy points, 15 fantasy points for game next

season. He's good. I love it. I love Davis Mills. I love the direction that the Texans are on. I didn't like it at first. I didn't like their hiring for their coaching staff. They've corrected those. I really think this team is moving forward with with their eyes looking at the looking at at the future with just promising signs left and right. Moving on to the Texans, I cannot, excuse me, the Titans, I cannot say the same thing. It's over. Tennessee has engaged full rebuild mode.

After the worst trade in NFL history, Ryan Tannahill and Derek Henry could end up as trade chips. We can still invest in Henry. and Robert Woods for this year. But Trail on Berks is not a foundation wide receiver. They traded that guy away. And a solid core on defense would be forced to wait around for several seasons while John Robinson weeps about his asinine decisions.

Get out in front of this train wreck and get those stocks invested in Hassan Haskins. Oh, that's a fantastic take. I want a little bit more broad strokes here. I think, I mean, the loss of AJ Brown is going to be absolutely huge for the Titans. I think they're going to miss the playoffs. And in part because the Colts, Jacks, and Texans are all going to be a little better than expected. But yeah, it's going to be some pain for Tennessee. No doubt.

You know, going in the opposite direction, the Vikings, a common era offensive philosophy, in Minnesota? What? What a tour-to-force institution of intelligent design? Target Dalvin Cook in the passing game? Never even considered involving one of the top receiving running backs in the NFL into the passing game. We can use more than two wide receivers at a time, you say? This stuff might catch on.

Guess what? The Vikings stepped out of the state. Stone Age with the hirings of Kevin O'Connell and West Phillips. Don't forget about Kirk Cousins and redraft in best ball formats. Hell, age doesn't matter at quarterback if you're good at football. And a shift to more 10 and 11 personnel will inject Cousins with far more Dino appeal with the top Dino wide receiver in the game by his side. Yeah, absolutely.

I can't help but agree with that. Adam Feeleyn right now is being dressed as wide receiver 38 on Underdog, which is just far too low. I mean, we can't forget that in 2020, both Thelan and Justin Jefferson finishes wide receiver once by fantasy points for game. So I think that's going to happen again in 2022. And as a bonus, I actually think the Vikings, not the Packers, are going to win that NFC more. I love it. And here, these were all of our 32 takes.

That's all we have for you. And we'll catch you next time. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.