Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 IDP Corner: Week 1

Episode Date: September 8, 2022

Justin Varnes (@downwithIDP) and Tom Simons look ahead at Week 1 IDP plays, start/sits, expected performance, and more. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome to another edition of the IDP Corner. My name is Justin Varns. You can follow me on Twitter at Down with IDP. I'm one of the IDP analysts. over at fantasy points.com and joining me tonight, as always, is our other IDP analyst over at FantasyPoint.com, Mr. Thomas Simons. How you doing tonight, Thomas? I'm doing great.

This is a crazy, crazy week. As you and I both know, we've been dealing with the fantasy projections for the season, and we posted our final ones while we're transitioning into our week one. projections. You have a hand in the defensive teams. I have a hand in place kickers. I also have a hand in kick returners and punt returners, which after we do this podcast today, I'm going to be putting at least that together and getting it ready for posting. And on top of all of this, there's a football game tomorrow night. And I'm doing baseball. What am I doing? I'm working baseball. A little bit longer. Just got to hang on a little bit longer.

Just a tiny bit. Yeah. So Thomas and I are going to, you know, we've obviously been trying to load you all up with stuff to get you ready for the season. The season starts tomorrow. Could be even by the time you listen to this podcast. The first game will be in the books. So what we're going to talk about today is things we're looking at and things that we're going to be watching closely. over the first week. We're going to see a lot of things actually happen in real time, in real life.

And as we all know, after that first week, we get a lot of really important information. The trick is how quickly you can identify something that looks different and how quickly then you can jump on the, either jump on the waiver wire or in the auction league, you know, bid highly, or recognize that what just happened is a fluke and you don't want to waste a waste a Waver wire pick on that. The first couple of weeks, particularly in the IDP landscape, because we do not get as much information in the mainstream media for what's going on. On the defensive side, we see a lot of people jumping on the wrong people for the waiver wires.

So if you know what to look for during the games, that might help you guys make a little bit more sound and informed decisions. But there's a lot of question marks, a lot of things that neither Thomas nor I know. going to cover a bunch of those tonight and kind of help you guys get prepped. One footnote regarding what you just mentioned, and that's when you're watching the games, I know in the past when I first started trying to watch film, so to speak, I tend to gravitate to the ball, wherever the ball is, and my eyes go to that. And while I'm sitting here trying to do IDPs and figure out what linebackers are doing, and what coverage they're using and things of that nature,

I tend to drift away from that and focus on the ball. When you're looking for these tidbits and looking for bits of information early on in the season, you want to try and focus on exactly what it is you're looking at. You're looking for linebacker information. Study the linebackers. Focus on the linebackers. You can always go back. I mean, most TVs, you know, you have Hulu or whatever, fire TV, whatever you have.

you can always rewind it. And if that's not the case, then at least you're going to see more plays coming up and don't get lost in following the ball. Focus on what it is you want, whether it's a safety, cornerback, lineback, or defensive linemen. So let's dive in. Let's start with Atlanta. We have a linebacker situation there. What have you got for us, Thomas?

Well, I mean, we've talked about Michael Walker for a while now. and in the recent years because there have been injuries and there's been lack of production. And Walker gets a lot of playing time. And it's already started this year because Dion Jones, the starting middle linebacker, has landed on injured reserve because of the fact that he had a shoulder surgery, off-season shoulder surgery and is out for at least four games because he's on the temporary IRA. Well, Walker is going to get some serious playing time. Now, whether or not he converts this into fantasy production is going to be, you know, going to be seen.

But you and I both know that this is an opportunity for people to catch your opponents in your fantasy leagues off guard because Walker can be very productive. And that's a sign of, you know, adding to what you have and building the depth that you have. even though Rashaun Evans is going to probably be a very big part of this defense this coming week, Walker is going to see a lot of playing time only because of the fact that this, this defense is going to be on the field quite a bit. And yes, Nick Koukowski was re-signed. And yes, they do have Troy Anderson. But Anderson seems to be still coming along and has a much bigger learning curve than expected.

So look for Walker to be very productive. Speaking of linebacker situations, one of the ones who's plagued us all preseason and the same team that plagued us last year, I'm going to be watching the Arizona Cardinals linebackers very carefully. Will Nick Vigil actually keep Zayvon Collins off the field? We know Isaiah Simmons will be on the field the whole time. They're going to move them around in a lot of formations. What we're really looking for is, will there be that Jordan Hicks on the team who's there every single, play in the middle who could be a highly valuable fantasy asset. Will Nick Vigil actually pull enough snaps from Zaven Collins to make neither of them

productive? Maybe Vigil gets the full start and Collins is a ghost, or maybe it's the other way around. I'll be watching very carefully to see what happens there. Do you think that they have a short leash on Simmons at all? Hmm. I don't think so. you know, I mean, I think it would take, yeah, I don't think it's certainly like a, yeah, exactly. And I think because of how they're going to use him, which is, you know, part safety, part edge rush or part linebacker,

that they'll find ways to use him, but I don't think they plan on sticking him in the middle of the field and where he's going to be the primary tackler, which is, of course, bad for fantasy, but I think because of that, I can't imagine that they really want to have Vigil and Collins be their two primary linebackers. But I don't know. What do you think? I'm under the impression that they want to give this kid every opportunity.

And I think at least early on in the first few games, they're going to do exactly what you said. And they're going to give him plenty of chances to succeed, whether he fails or succeeds. They're going to give him plenty of chances. to do that. So I think you're right on with this. And the only caveat of this whole thing is what you had mentioned in that it's a fantasy buzzkill when the position or the role that he's going to be playing is not a great fantasy production role. It's more of a monster role, which means he moves

around quite a bit, which keeps the offense on its heels a little bit off guard because of the fact that it can't figure out exactly where he's going to be. He's not going to be a convention. they'll position the whole whole game. Now, speaking of bad fantasy options, you know, I've been looking at this Tampa Bay at Dallas on Sunday night football game. It's a Sunday night game in Dallas, and Dallas is an underdog. Everybody that I've spoken to so far this past week has been totally on board with Tampa Bay beating Dallas, and that Dallas has got issues and Dallas this and Dallas

that. And while I'm in that same group, this one it feels like a trap it really really does because everybody's putting hedging their bets towards Tampa Bay and the other thing that that has me kind of nervous here is Tom Brady and his age is it time that Brady is going to start showing his age you know the whole personal matter that he was away from the team for 10 days I've heard rumors that he was on the mass singer I've heard rumors there were family things that he was dealing with. Who knows what it was.

But the fact that he was away from the team, and now the team offensively, the offensive line is really, really banged up. Could this be a field day for Dallas to take advantage of this situation at home in front of a national audience, quiet a lot of the critics, and someone like DeMarcus Lawrence

have a big day with a couple of sacks or Micah Parson just be the animal we know he is? We saw last year how a player like Buda Baker who went into the fantasy season expecting, we all expected him to be the primary producer there in the Cardinals back in the Cardinals defensive backfield. However, it ended up being Jalen Thompson. Now they've signed Jalen to a lucrative extension. So we are expecting Thompson to be the lead dog here. but I've seen Buda Baker drafted very highly,

and it reminds me of what we're a touch concerned about in Carolina with Jeremy Chim. Is Jeremy Chin, now that Xavier Woods is there, is Jeremy Chin going to move back to a deeper role? We saw a touch of that in the preseason. So watching not only Jeremy Chin and Xavier Woods' alignment and production, but also keeping an eye on that whole Thompson, Baker situation. These are safeties that could change very quickly.

And if you can, if you can see that in the first week and grab them off the waiver wire, making these sort of switches, or, you know, maybe it's the sort of situation where you can, if you've got Buda Baker or Jeremy Chenin and you see this where they're aligning deeper and they end up with three tackles and the end and their compatriot ends up with 12 tackles might be a good time to try and sell high on them before it's too late. You know, I'm wondering if the Minnesota Vikings are going to put DeNeal Hunter on a snap count this week. You know, he's been a long time since he's played a full game and gone 100% full bore. So you've got to wonder if they're going to ease him into this back into the game

and the speed of the game. they do have Zadaria Smith on the other side, then Smith is most likely going to have a revenge factor going for him against his old team, the Green Bay Packers. And it looks like he's the more reliable edge rusher this week against his old team. And, you know, it concerns me a little bit because with Jordan Hicks and Eric Kendricks in the middle, tackles are going to be at a premium. for Hunter when he does see the field.

He's going to have to do most of his fantasy production off the edge on a big play with Saks. And that could be hindered if he is indeed on a snap count. What are your thoughts on Hunter? Well, Hunter is somebody who I was thinking about this with Chandler Jones as well. We've seen Chandler Jones has changed teams now. He's a veteran. He's had some injuries.

And Daniel Hunter obviously hasn't changed teams, but it's a new defensive scheme. And he obviously was injured as well. Thomas, I know you and I are pretty high on both Jones and Hunter, but I have seen them go pretty late in drafts just because people are worried about, you know, a new defensive coordinator or a new team. These are veterans. They've dealt with some injuries. So how Jones and Hunter perform, yeah, is he on a snap count?

You know, is he playing 40 to 50% snaps or is he playing 70% to 90% snaps? The same with Chandler Jones. So how much they use them, how effective they look. These are going to be big things to determine if these guys, I mean, these guys could easily be both of them, be in the top five DLs. Yes. Or they could easily slip out of the top 25. and we'll get a pretty good idea of how they're looking and how they're being used in these new defenses within the first week.

I have pretty high expectations for both of them if Hunter indeed can have a decent snap count. Now, it is not, you know, he's playing against a Green Bay offensive line that's pretty good. So if he doesn't have a massive game, but his snap counts are high, I'm going to feel good about him. If he plays that 40 to 50% role, I'm nervous, but maybe it ticks up for the next couple of weeks. But I'm really intrigued to see Jones play. Yeah, I think the Raiders are going to bring a ton of pressure against the charges this week. And I think Yannick and Gakwe and Jones are going to be major parts of this pressure that gets applied.

Now, the Raiders have stabilized their run game defense with Denzel Perryman in the middle, and they have Divine Diablo and Jan Brown on the outside. So they're pretty decent against the run. And now that they have Jones and Crosby, I'm sorry, I said Yanuk in Gakway, I meant Max Crosby. Crosby and Jones are going to go apply a lot of pressure. And Clellan Farrell will most likely come off the bench. And so will Toshan Bauer, who these four can apply pressure and be moved up and down the line in passing situations. And we both know that the chargers with Justin Herbert at quarterback are a very good passing team. So I'm expecting the Raiders to bring a lot of pressure.

There's another lineback in core that we've talked a lot about this offseason that I'm curious to watch, and that's over in Cleveland. Are we going to see J.O.K. eventually, you know, fully take over this defense. It'd be a three-down player and a double-digit tackle guy, or will Anthony Walker hang on to enough snaps and still be productive? I think both of them will be or could be, I should say. It's just hard to tell at this point if they, I know they think their future is JOK. And I'm totally down with that. The question is, is Anthony Walker still in every down player and the guy in the middle? Or will he be relegated to, you know, secondary linebacker where he's playing 50, 60% of the snaps?

This is a situation where Walker, you know, kind of like what we're talking about with Jones and Hunter, you know, if Walker's in every down player, Walker could easily finish in the top 20 of linebackers. If he's a 60% player, he's, you know, he's LB4 status. And that amount of swing is obviously also going to have an effect on Jeremiah Cormor. So lots to figure out with the Cleveland linebackers. Another group, it's like that as the Lions linebackers. Is it still going to be Alex Anzolone. Are we going to see any of Malcolm Rodriguez, the rookie who had such a strong preseason in training camp? Are we going to finally see Derek Barnes out there? What all is going to happen there is going to be really interesting because, you know, we know that Alex Anzolone is not

the answer there. The question is, how long will they let him have snaps? It might not even fully be week one before he's already irrelevant, or he could have yet another season where he he's going to just stumble into seven to nine tackles a game. Yeah, and in regards to Anthony Walker, I'm a little concerned that Jacob Phillips might be stealing some snaps from him. I've seen some depth charts out there that have Phillips listed ahead of Walker at middle linebacker. And yes, you're concerned about whether or not he's going to be an every down linebacker in Walker and whether or not he plays the middle is going to be something that you have to pay very close attention.

to. While this podcast is being done, recorded a day before the Thursday night football game, and most likely if you do get time to hear it before the Thursday night game, then this information that I'm about to say will probably be irrelevant. If not, it'll be irrelevant because the game will have already happened. But it's going to be interesting to see how Von Miller does, playing with his new team, the Buffalo Bills, against his old team that he won a Super Bowl with last year. Now, Miller is bringing edge rushing to the Bill's defense, which they much needed and is going to make this defense that much more improved. So it's going to be fun to watch him play against his old team that he won a Super Bowl with last year. Now, speaking of linebackers

and health, Shaq Leonard is going to be someone we need to keep an eye on as well. this week, not knowing whether or not his, he's been practicing since it's only Wednesday, and we still haven't seen practice reports. Shaq Leonard is going to be, you know, he had that surgery on a disc, minor. It was supposed to be a minor surgery, but now there was a question mark as well or not, whether or not he would play. If he doesn't play or is it really, really seriously questionable, Bobby Okoriki is probably going to be a very good play this week.

Yeah, if we have a couple of discord questions about Shaq Lennar, which I'm going to try to get to after our podcast here. But he's out there on some waiver wires. That's great. Yeah, it is. And I understand everybody's worried that he's injured and all that. But some of the stuff I've read is that, you know, he had been dealing with, you know, this injury for the last couple of years, which is why we've seen Leonard's numbers be less than his first. couple of years and apparently he's, you know, basically almost fully healed and is feeling much better also. If Shaq Leonard is even 90% or 75% of the player he was, you know, before this,

he's still an extremely valuable asset. So if I have Shaq Leonard this week, I am, I'm rolling him out. Yeah, I mean, yeah, you just got to do it. And if he's on the waiver wire, please pick him up. even if, you know, particularly if you could stash him, if you have somebody decent, I think somebody's got Devin White in our, you know, in the Discord app, you know, start White this week, you know, but absolutely pick up Shaq Litter because he is a game changer when he's fully healthy. And he's still well young enough. He's still on that same, on that same defense.

And he's got cover skills. He's got, you know, pass rushing skills. He's the complete package. as you've seen us talk a lot about over this preseason, there are very few of these guys left, and Shaq Leonard still has that skill set and could easily finish as the number one linebacker if he's healthy.

You mentioned Devin White and somebody has White and Leonard is on their waiver wire. If it's only one IDP position on your team and you only have one roster spot for an IDP, I personally would keep Devin White and keep an eye on Shaq Leonard. What are your thoughts on if somebody's stuck with just one and they can't store him on a bench? Yeah, I mean, if you can't store him, then you have to make the decision of, well, I'm going to risk losing week one to have a possible game changer guy.

But, you know, obviously white is also a very strong option. Yeah, I mean, that's tough. I'd love to pick up Leonard and then if he ends up being out, then I can immediately put him on IR for the game and then go and then go pick white back up. But man, he's a hard guy to leave out on a way for wire, I think. So we're going to turn our attention a little bit to a couple of edge rushers to watch. I'm excited to watch Jonathan Grenard.

This is his, you know, he had kind of his breakout year last year. About halfway through the year, we saw his, his big play numbers dip. He got injured. And then when he came back, we saw his big play numbers dip. But his peripherals, his quarterback hits, his quarterback pressures, all that stayed very high. So there's a good chance that Grenard, who was somebody who got drafted, you know, later than they should have been, could easily be a top 20, top 25 defensive linemen. So does he come out of the gate killing it for Texas?

Texas for Houston. I'm watching that carefully. And Aiden Hutchinson. So lots of talk about him. You know at this point probably how Thomas and I feel about rookie IDPs, particularly rookie edge rushers. It takes a special player to really bust out as a rookie edge rusher. Aiden Hutchinson is a special player. It's just a matter of whether he can get enough snaps and he can actually convert them. It is a really difficult thing to do. So does Hutchinson hit the ground running and show us that he's the next, you know, Joey Bosa or DeForest Buckner or one of these players who can really hit the ground

running? We're not expecting that, but I'm not, I'm not riding it off. So watching Hutchinson and Grenard this week for some value from my DLs is something I'll be pretty focused on. You know, Houston also added some veterans and Jerry Hughes and my. Mario Addison on their D. And they brought in Rishim Green from Seattle. And so they're, they're focusing on improving their edge rushing. And Grinard could could really, really benefit if somebody on the other side is drawing attention away from him. And also you had mentioned

not only Hutchinson, but another one I would throw in there is Trayvon Walker from Jacksonville. He's, he's another edge ratcher that fits in the mold of what you were talking about with Hutchinson. Now, I'm going to turn my attention to Miami here for a second. And the running game, the run game for the Dolphins has totally, totally been revamped and is extremely improved. They've got some serious depth that they're running back position. And their O line has been improved as well in the off season. And now, you got to wonder, is Miami going to, you know, with Tyreek Hill now at wide receiver for the season? And now, you know, you know, them are they going to throw a ton? Well, you know, I think what you're going to find in this

particular week is they're playing the Patriots. They want to establish the run against the Patriots. They want to eat the clock on the Patriots. So I can see this run game being a huge, huge play this week for Miami against the Patriots. And that means that you're going to see a lot of tackles on the Patriots side of the ball. Now, it doesn't mean that one guy is going to get a ton of of tackles. What it does mean is that those that are out there are going to split those tackles. So you're going to see if they have three safety sets, whichever safety is in the box is going to be benefiting from the fact that Miami is going to be running the ball a lot. Same thing with their interior linebackers.

Joanne Bentley, Rayquan McMillan, McMillan, Mac Wilson, these guys could see some spike in their tackle numbers and don't get sucked in if one of them has. has eight to ten tackles this week because Miami is going to try and establish the run game, which is what they focused on in the outseason. Yeah, excellent point about watching those Patriots rack up tackles in that fashion. I'm going to hit one more, another linebacker. Everyone is going to be watching Nick Bolton of the Chiefs. Is he going to be the first major linebacker for Kansas City since

Who is the guy out of University of Texas? Derek, I'm not blinking on his name. Thomas. Yes, Thomas. So, you know, really since him, you know, we've seen a lot of Kansas City linebackers be meh at best for fantasy. You know, it is now the time that Nick Bolton and Willie Gay take over this defense and are complete linebackers that stay on the field a bunch. Or is Bolton going to be another one of these new, you know, New England, Miami, or Kansas City, guys who are on the field a ton,

but they still somehow only end up getting like six to eight tackles. So how Bolton does will be curious. And also how Gay does next to him. What's scary here is that you have Bolton and Gay and you have Leo Chanel and the rookie. You have Darius Harris. And then they're using Carlos Dunlap as a linebacker. And that's all they have for depth. So if Bolton or Gay do not perform and do not step up

and bring it to the next level, this could be a very serious situation for the Kansas City Chiefs defense. And in this conference where the offenses have totally improved, you know, the Raiders brought in Devante Adams, and we know what the Chargers can do, and Denver's got Russell Wilson behind the under center. So, I mean, they're going to be facing some serious offenses twice a year on each one of those teams. You heard us mention when we were discussing Shaquille Leonard about our Discord channel. This is something that if you are a Fantasy Points subscriber, you're a premium subscriber, you have access to everyone on the Fantasy Points staff, which is pretty incredible because we're talking about John Hanson and Joe Dolan and Tom Brawley and Graham Barfield

and tons of guys. Yeah, it really does. But make sure you reach out to us in Discord. We don't care if you play 422 IDPs and you have to start, you know, seven nose tackles. Or if you literally have one IDP, you're like, I don't know anything about IDP. I got in a league. I pity anybody who has to star seven nose tackles. I pity anyone has to star one nose tackles.

That's a whole other discussion. Anyway, yeah, so feel free to jump in there. We love being able to interact directly like that, particularly after this first week when it comes to waiver wires. And you can reach out during the game, and we can all lament at how somehow Dick Bolton only has three tackles. And we'll cry together. So make sure to reach out for us in Discord.

If you're not a fantasy point subscriber and you're interested in IDP, man, we've got a ton of content on there. Both Thomas and I are working. each side of the IDP into things. And obviously all the amazing information you can get on the offensive side of the ball is there as well. So for myself and Thomas Simons, this is the IDP Corner podcast. We'll be doing this every Thursday night going into the season.

And then this will probably come out on Fridays, help you guys get set up for the week ahead as you plan to try and dominate your leagues. Thomas, you got anything else for us? Yes. Be well and be safe. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.