Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Off-Season Hansen's Hints: Running Backs

Episode Date: May 9, 2022

John Hansen (@Fantasy_Guru) goes solo in the newest podcast mini-series: Hansen's Hints. Here, John looks at the initial 2022 RB Projections. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. What's up, everyone? Welcome to another edition of Hanson's Hents here into FantasyPoints.com podcast feed. I'm John Hanson. and well I'm about ready to give out some hints here new initiative for me in 2022 are going to try and start doing some solo podcasting kind of let it all hang out a little bit more than usual on the podcast feed so I already recorded the first one of these for 2022 as I wrapped up season projections this week at fantasy points dot com I did the quarterbacks already went over the whole board basically the landscape what I'm seeing early on here, the player pool and all that good stuff.

Kind of got into my process a little bit. So check out that podcast if you missed it and doing some video here with this one as well with the running backs. I didn't do the video for the quarterback one that I did previously. I was having a very bad face day. But today's not much better. But screw it. Let's get into it. Running backs here, 2022.

just wrapped up the projection process probably never spent more time before the draft getting the projections ready to roll out and overall feel really good about where we are with everybody it's early but I feel like I've accounted for everyone projected a bunch of players like 385 running backs wide receivers tight ends and quarterbacks and the theme throughout is depth. It's, man, more depth than ever at really all the positions. I talked about the quarterback depth better than ever. I think running back is right there as well. I think you can go this year 60 deep in terms of viable options, guys who actually have a chance, guys who can play a little bit. And then even more than that in terms of Stash and Hope guys and the like here. So we, I did, updated all

the little designations on the website, FantasyPoints.com, players tagged for upside, downside, players to target, and I also did add the tiers. So let's kind of go through these running backs by tiers.

The first tier has nine players and the obvious names. Taylor, Naji Harris, Austin, Echler, Christian McCaffrey, Javante Williams, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixin, Alvin Camara, and Derek Henry. Now, we are lower on Henry than probably everyone else.

I know I am. I'm very concerned about the Titans. They lost Roger Saffold on the O line. AJ Brown, that loss was absolutely massive. He was one of the top leaders on the team, their identity in the passing game, honestly. And without him, Trailing Berks is, boy, that's a big ask. So you think back to Derek Henry's big 2020. season and you're like okay you know they had rogers saffold then he was two years younger than he is

obviously they also had a j brown corey dillon and johnnew smith and tannoh was playing at a high level tannohill fell off last year probably because the receiving core fell off so i think derrick henry's efficiency uh is about to take a hit he'll get more attention than ever more stack boxes it's not great and also the injury bug and it's a concern getting given the massive workload. He's still going to be good when he's out there, but that body tends to break down. And we saw that last year with the injury.

Something else could happen here as he gets more and more work this year. So I'm probably out on him. That's the first tier of running backs. You know, I'm inclined if I get a crack at any of these dudes to get one because the talent does fall down after, you know, this tier. Basically, in fact, between Derek Henry or R.B. and DeAndre Swift, our RB10, there is a pretty good difference here of almost 30 fantasy points.

That's a lot. You know, that's almost to a game, really. So D'Andre Swift is in that second tier. I still think pretty highly of him. Last year, we, I think, helped people out with our ranking of him. He was 39 overall. We hit him at 30. I mean, it's not a huge difference,

but, you know, maybe you were inclined to get him in a third round. That's a difference of a round, by the way. way and if so it was a good pick for the most part we have by the way this is a small tier dudes that you know a drop off from the top tier guys but better than the tier three guys actually no tier three is a small one tier two's pretty big tier two has de adre swift and aaron jones Leonard four net Nick chub you know i'm not going to take for net myself because i'm anti-leonard basically uh he has uh a bigger back. He has had injury problems. He is crappy in the passing game at times with his

bad hands. I do love Rashad White. But Fournette Fairley is in this second tier based on the massive role and based on the production from last year. We have our first rookie in this second tier as well with Breece Hall. I'm not that worried about the presence of Michael Carter. You need more than one running back anyway in the NFL to get through a whole season. and I very much believe in the talent of Breece Hall. He is squarely within that second tier. And I'll take him as my second back. And even in round three, he's in round four now,

but he'll probably be in round three by the time we get to the summer, maybe even infringing upon round two if things are going really, really well. Now, some of these other options in this second tier are available now in rounds four, rounds three, four, five, let's say. and it's a little unusual to get a guy like Zeke Elliott, who I'm not particularly high on, but RB 21, we do have them at 15, and the ADP overall of 41 is not bad.

I kind of like Sequin Barkley this year. I know it's been bad, and I am always worried about injuries. But, I mean, the guy is still, what, 25 years old, he may still have his best football in front of him. It's not a foregone conclusion that that's in the rear view. if so, that would be said. I'm getting good reports on his health.

I like what they've done on the offensive line to protect Daniel Jones. That should give a little bit more support for Sequin when he touches the ball, whether it be in the passing game or the running game, and perhaps most importantly, very affordable. You can get him now in the third round, ADP around 36, so he's right there on that fringe. I actually drafted him already this week for a magazine mock draft, Lindy's magazine.

I took them top of round three. I thought it was okay. We also have Antonio Gibson in this realm in this second tier. I'm a little worried about obviously the drafting of Brian Robinson. That was more so speaking to the situation behind Gibson and Jared Patterson being only 5-6 and not an ideal RB2. But Ron Rivera has already said that he wouldn't mind it if Robinson had a healthy roll right out of the gate and they kind of divvied up the backfield duties, much like they did in Carolina with Angela Williams and Jonathan Stewart. I actually interviewed both of those dudes

way back when around like 08, 2009 and talked about how that phenomenon was going to prolong their careers and they were in agreement and it did prolong their careers. So that's not great. In this realm, though, we do have some buying opportunities for sure. I'm a big pen to degree guy. I'm all about that. Travis E.T.N. He's healthy right now with that foot. And ADP of 59, it'll go up, but that's not bad. And we don't know about James Robinson either. And he's, you know, certainly comfortable with Trevor Lawrence, his college teammate. You know, David Montgomery is a viable option for sure, round four, round five. J.K. Dobbins, same deal, round four for the most part. So I am mostly into.

Dobbins and E.N. in this group. Now, tier three is where there is a drop off again and some concerning players. Cam Acres, I just don't know what to think. He wasn't very good down the stretch. He looked pretty good, but the production was just terrible. So I'm very worried about how I'm not feeling it. And right now at 26, 27 overall. James Connor is like a fourth round pick. We've got him at RB 22. His ADP is RB 18. He's an older player.

I'm very concerned about him. He's not that old, actually, but he kind of seems old, doesn't he? When you really add up all the injuries, not like he didn't have injury problems last year. So not loving him. Josh Jacobs, I was feeling pretty good about, but they didn't pick up that fifth year option. Then they drafted Samir White.

They are crowded. So I'm not really feeling warm and fuzzy about him. him, but he's also in that third tier along with Elijah Mitchell, who again, I'm not feeling Elijah Mitchell either. I know he was very good last year, but not a big frame, got hurt a couple times. They brought in Ty Davis Price. They took him earlier than they took Mitchell himself last year. That could be bad news for Trace Ehrman, of course. Moving down the board here, looking at the running backs. We're in now to tier four and we're generally in the 70 to 90 range, let's say, overall. We do have some good options, though, still in this range. You know, AJ Dillon is usable and

handy for sure with big upside of AJ or if Aaron Jones misses time. Devin Singletary is not bad. I know he's boring as hell. And, uh, Jay, James Cook's going to be a factor, but I don't think James Cook is getting more than 80, 90 carries. So I think Devin Singletary is still going to get 200 plus with 30, 40 grabs, 30, 35 grabs. Not bad. Not bad. I'm very into what I call the sexiness of the unknown with these rookies. I think, again, you always get a little bit of a buying opportunity.

We've seen it over the last couple of years with Jonathan Taylor and Giovante Williams, by the way. You know, those guys were a little down their rookie year. Even Taylor last year, his second year was kind of down. Dude was all world. Then he was like, what, RBA eight off the board? So Kenneth Walker is intriguing to me around 75 overall. We'll see where that ADP settles in. And a lot to get to here.

We'll see if Chris Carson is rolled out, which I think he will be. Damien Pierce, no one is handing him the starting job. We don't want to assume he's the starter, but I'm about ready to assume he's a starter. based on what I saw from that kid in college. I already didn't get a lot of touches, which is a little weird thing. I'm not convinced Damian Pierce is going to be the guy in three years, but I'm convinced he's going to be the guy now.

And for 2022, that's all that matters. I watched him closely at the senior ball. I really didn't know anything about him, but I went to Mobile, and I watched him live and practiced for two days, and I really like what I saw. He plays with a lot of energy. I thought he reminded me a little of Frank Gore.

pretty explosive and just energetic, a nice burst to his game, if you will, good and pass pro. Moving down to board, though, in this range here of tier three. Actually, we're into tier four now. Yeah, we're into tier four. Tier three was small. That was just Camacres, James Connor, James, Josh Jacobs, and Elijah Mitchell. Tier four is pretty appealing, though, some of the names I just mentioned, you know, AJ Dillon and Singletarian Walker,

all going off the board 70 plus picks in. Clyde Edwards-Alaire, let's call it 85. I'm in on that. I'm not feeling it for sure. I'm not that worried about Ronald Jones. He's not a good receiver. So why can't Clyde Edwards-Alair pick up that receiving back role?

If he's ever going to do it, this is it. Year number three for Edwards-Alear. Again, he was last two years ago going off the board, like 12, 15 overall. And now you can get him at like 85. So that's, again, that's not bad. Damien Harris, like 1,700 running backs in New England these days, but they trust him very much.

And goal line back, going to get double-ditch touchdowns again. Chase Edmonds, I'm not feeling it with a bunch of other guys in the mix, namely Rahim Mosterd. But, you know, he is their primary back, in my opinion, right now. Maybe Moster is right there with him. But, yeah, Chase Edmund's not bad. You know, then moving down the board here, are we, yeah, we are just now moving into Tier 5 at running back.

Rashad Penny is a tough one. But he'll probably have value early on. And he could have a lot of value if Kenneth Walker has problems or is hurt. Michael Carter, Kareem Hunt. These are not ideal picks here in Tier 5, but look at the price tag. here for these players. Kareem Hunt around 90. Michael Carter will probably be around the same.

90 to 100. Not bad. Not bad depth this year. A little bit better than usual. And then moving on to the next tier, is another tier, tier six. I like Neheme Hinds. Well over 100 picks him to draft is where you get him.

He kind of died last year. We saw it coming with Carson Wentz there. But Matt Ryan will check it down to Nehem Hines, James Cook. here's a good one. 150 overall. Kenneth Gainwell. Guaranteed nothing, but they used him near the goal and he was good.

Some of the best hands on the team. I think the offense wants to throw it a little bit more. Jalen Hertz improved in his second full year as a starter. I really like him as a value ROI guy, if you will, at running back. You know, we do have a lot of these rookies who are right now slotted in like the 40, the RB 40 to RB 50. range on our board, but we just don't know exactly where they'll be ADP-wise. We need some more data sample size to grow for these rookies.

But Tyler Algear in Atlanta could be a Belkow type of guy here. I mean, Cordero wore down. They let Mike Davis go. Isaiah Spiller. They've been looking in L.A. and San Diego where Austin Echler has been miscast, really, as a number one running back. You need a bigger guy to work in with him. That's what Austin Echler himself basically asked for.

for this offseason. And I think they got it with Isaiah Spiller. And I love my guy, Rashad White. ADP is going to be climbing and climbing. He'll probably end up being about 100 overall. Right now he's about 150 overall. I think he has a role or can carve out a larger role right out of the gate. He's a bigger back who can play all three downs, much like Leonard Furnett.

And I think he has better hands already than Leonard Fornett. I'm not a Furnett guy if you didn't know that already. and Rahim Moster, Ronald Jones, well in the mix, and their respective backfields, Kenyon Drake, even like Khalil Herbert. He's only RB 52 on our board here. So 50 plus running backs are pretty good, you know, like viable. And then beyond that, we still have some other depth options here.

A lot of the rookies, again, we'll see about Keontay Ingram, Brian Robinson. Those are RB 54 and 57 on our board. So as you can see, we can go 50 plus running backs in and still have viable options. Ty Davis Price as well here. And I'm looking even in the 70s. And granted, that's pretty deep. But even in the 70s, there are some guys with a chance.

You know, Hassan Hoskins is a good stash and hope guy. He'll be a league winning type if Derek Henry is out. Let's see, who else? you know again we're we're digging deep here but you know benjamin may hold some value here because you know there's touches to be grabbed in this backfield but i think you get the idea really good depth here so when i look at my you know plan of action if you will at the running back position i haven't changed ever really i mean when everyone was doing this uh zero running back thing i wasn't down with that at all um and now everyone's kind of bailing on the zero running back

thing. I do want to be smart. So let's keep in mind the unusual depth this year. Let's be smart about our picks, judicious. I will focus on running backs who are young, durable, versatile. I will always look to get a discount on the rookies because they're unproven. So therefore, it's a buying opportunity. and I will always do what I do, which is do the projections, objectively, add them up, see where the rankings are based on the projections, and then compare to the ADP. As I said, we've got plenty of good examples last year of this. Giovante Williams was 50. We had him at 37. Swift last year was 39.

We had him at 30. A.J. Dillon was 92. We had him at 76. even a guy like Sony Michelle 107. We had him at 79. So that's really my goal, giving you the people who are watching and listening and subscribing an edge compared to the markets, if you will. Pretty damn good in that regard last year.

Not going to get them all right, certainly. When an older guy does well, I'm usually screwed like James Connor and even Leonard Fournette last year. I was not on them. So I am aggressive and I am all about young ascending talents and that's my deal. That's what keeps me energized and all that. So, you know, you don't have to go off of me, you know, entirely. You use your own approach, but that's my approach.

I'm very aggressive. So here are some guys that stand out to me just a little bit. And when I look at the ADP and compare it to where I have the players, not a big discrepancy here, but Giovante Williams is RB6. We've got him at five. Dalvin Cook is RB7. We've got him at six. Alvin Kamara is RB 10, and we've got him at eight.

Camara's a weird one because I am always worried about older guys with some injury problems. He's getting a little older, but he's been incredible. He's been generally durable. He's recovered quickly from injuries. He's played hurt. Might be a little bit of an outlier guy, kind of a freak show, if you will. The next biggest discrepancy or, you know, aka the next target for me, would be Brise Hall, the rookie.

I'm not that worried about the presence of Michael Carter. Not a big discrepancy here, but the ADP, the early one, was RB17, and I've got them at RB14. There's a discrepancy here with Zeke Elliott, but I'm not targeting Zeke Elliott, but the markets have been at RB21, which I think is a bit much. That's a little low. we've got it at RB 15. I do kind of like Saquan Barkley right now.

I haven't priced at RB 16. That's what the ADP says. But I'm kind of feeling it. The vibes are good early on, getting good reports on the health, like, certainly like Brian Dayball and what he's going to bring in his coaching staff, they're going to push Daniel Jones to be more aggressive.

I like the Evan Neal pick and right tackle. The O line should be pretty good on the edges there. Open up that perimeter, maybe a little bit more for Sequin, again, who is looking pretty decent right now health-wise. Travis E.T.N.'s a big one. I've got him at RB 18. He's only RB 24. He's a perfect example of a buying opportunity, even though he's not a rookie. Dude hasn't done anything yet, obviously, but the pedigree is there. The opportunity is absolutely there with, you know, Brian Robinson. We don't, not Brian Robinson, James Robinson. We don't know about him coming off that injury.

I also like J.K. Dobbins, even though I do have him priced at the market. One running back who does stand out in terms of being, us being lower on him than the market, is Cam Acres. I just don't know what to expect. I am conservatively slotting him as the RB21. The markets, though, have been RB15. I mean, I get it to an extent. He could be a league winning type, but I didn't think he looked very good last year. They did lose Andrew Whitworth on the O line.

I got a bad vibe, but we're all on the Rams. So I'm going to be a little careful there. James Connor is RB 18. I can't sign off on that. We only have been RB 22. Elijah Mitchell, I'm not into RB 23. We have a 24, so it's not that much of a discrepancy, but I'm not that into him. Same deal with Kenneth Walker, RB 27.

We've got him at 27. Here's one decent example of a discrepancy. I know he's a pain in the ass, but Miles, Sanders, R.B. 28, and we've got him, no, his ADP is that's where he have at 28. His 80p is 33. I do feel good about the Philly offense overall, but come on, dude, can you score a touchdown, Miles Sanders? Damien Pierce, we'll see where the ADP settles in.

So it's a tough one to say, like comparing it, but we do have him at RB 29. I like Clyde Edwards-Lare, RB32 on the market. We've got him at 29. If he's ever going to do it, this is the year. Year three, good O-line blocking for the run. Ronald Jones, not a huge threat. He could be, but the contract isn't much and he's not a good receiver. So if Edwards Allaire is ever going to do it in the passing game, it's got to be this year.

So I kind of like them at RB 32 off the board. We've got them at 29. We do have, let's see. Uh, here's probably the next biggest discrepancy, honestly. Naheem Hines, RB 44. We've got him at 39. As we've mentioned, Matt Ice, we'll check it down to him unlike a Carson Wentz. Kenny Gainwell, we have at RB 41.

Uh, he's RB 47. Tyler Algier is a target for now, but, or at least he has upside, but it's don't know where his ADP will settle in. Isaiah Spiller. It's a tough one. We're actually lower than the markets, but let's see where the markets settle in here. RB 31 of the markets. That's ridiculous. I do have been RB 45. Rashad White, I mean, this is ADP data that's catching up quickly because it shows them as RB 46 already. And I have been RB 48. But rest assured, I'm all in on Rashad White. I'll go as high as the markets. I'll keep going higher. as long as I still feel good about Rashad White.

So I think I've given a pretty good overview here of the position. It's pretty deep. You want to get in the running back business. I just want to be smart about it. I don't want to take a running back just because I feel the pressure to take a running back. And I want to focus on players who generally have their best football in front of them and are young, you're younger, durable or relatively durable. and versatile.

And again, always looking out for those rookies to get that buying opportunity. So that'll be a wrap here for the running back segment of this podcast here, Hanson's Hintz, on the Fantasy Points podcast feed. And I'll be back with wide receivers and then tight ends. And then I'll get into specific topics like I'll do a podcast on my draft plan, essentially, breaking down the plan of action. And then I'll probably do at least one podcast per week here, flying solo here, trying something new this year to see where it goes, I guess. I'd never truly embrace podcasting because I'm always busy on the radio, but we're going to give it a shot this year.

That'll wrap it up. Thanks for listening. Thanks for subscribing to the feed. If you're not subscribed already to the Fantasy Points feed, please do so. And oh, by the way, throw me a bone here and give me a good review. Give us a good review. It doesn't have to be me. You can make up somebody.

Give Steve a good review as long as is on the Fantasy Points theme. Thanks a lot for listening. We'll catch you next time. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.