Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Post-Draft Chat with Danny Kelly

Episode Date: May 10, 2022

Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) sits down with Danny Kelly (@DannyBKelly) to review the NFL Draft and talk rookie expectations and landing spots for the coming year. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Ladies and gentlemen, you are listening to the Fantasy Points podcast. I'm your host, Scott Barrett, and today we are joined by the great, great and wonderful and handsome, Danny Kelly, who is a staff writer and host of the Ringer Fantasy Football Show, also the ringer ringleader of the fantasy draft guide and the NFL draft guide and the NFL draft guide and the NFL draft show podcast.

The world's best mock draft person when it comes to making player comps, world's greatest player comps, a close personal friend, co-owner of many dynasty teams with myself. Danny, what's going on? Thanks for that meandering preamble. I appreciate that. I almost told you before the show, actually, to, like, just not introduce me whatsoever because I always feel like you oversell it.

But I do appreciate it. I felt like I had an oversell. I was like, what's your title? And you're like, staff writer. You do the draft guide? You do two podcasts? I mean, it's all part of the part of being a staff writer is just doing a little bit of everything at the ringer.

Wow. Yeah. But I do appreciate it. You're just a team player, a lunch pale guy, you know? Just happy to be there. First in, last out kind of deal. Yeah, Debo, Samuel, Devante Adams are all like, I want my money. Cooper Cup is just like, oh, shucks, grateful to be here, playing with my friends, love football.

Yeah, yeah. It's good to talk to you, man. It's been a while. I think it's been probably about a year since this last time we did a podcast. It's been too long, too long. All right. But we talk all the time. We're always in DMs.

Yeah. Okay. We let the hot takes fly in the DMs. The DMs are sacred, though. We got to keep it more professional here. Okay, okay. We don't have to. We can have some fun.

Okay. So, all right. You did the wonderful draft guide over at the ringer.com. Really love what you had. Can you tell me who won the draft? I know you can never say this. But tell me, Dan. So I think a few teams, a few teams,

A few teams that were my favorite. I really liked what the Ravens did. That one is kind of like cliche at this point. Everyone's talking about the Ravens, blah, blah, blah. Who cares? The Giants, your Giants. There we go. I thought it had a really good one.

Although I think they're day two and three picks were kind of intriguing. I'm not 100% sure how to feel about the Wondell Robinson pick. I think I know that coming into the draft, you were kind of big on Rondale. Or Wondale, sorry. I accident. That was like a Freudian slip there. I called him Rondale. Hopefully it doesn't turn into.

Rondale more. But yeah, I think they had a very interesting draft. I think they knocked it out of the park in the first round. Like that's exactly what you wanted to come away with. Kevin Tibado, Evan Neal. But then like, yeah, the Wondale pick is the head scratcher. And I'm wondering if he is going to be another Rondale or if he's going to be like Elijah Moore.

I was actually looking at this last night. I didn't realize, despite the hundreds and hundreds of hours I spent like studying the draft, Wondale and Elijah Moore are like almost exactly the same size. So that makes me actually a lot more excited about him. Right, right. Yeah. So my comp for him was if Ron Dale Moore and K.J. Hamler were as good as everyone wanted him. So I really liked Juan Del Robinson.

He gets like mini-debo comps where, okay, maybe I don't see that too much. But he was the number one rated running all-purpose. running back recruit coming out of high school. And he played running back early on. So there might be some untapped receiving potential there. But I mean, his numbers last year with Will Levis were unreal. Yeah. I think so he's like the most, one of the most fascinating players.

And we'll get into like rookie dynasty drafts and all that. But like in in rookie dynasty drafts and just in drafts in general, he's the most intrigue, one of the most intriguing guys because I think on one hand, we sort of have like a really bad taste in her mouth about like really small guys right now. like Rondale Moore, you know, Outlook isn't looking super great for him at this moment, although that could change certainly over the next year or two. And then guys like Tutu Atwell and, you know, even Dwayne Eskridge, who is not as small as these other guys, but basically just all these teams seem to be, quote unquote, reaching on

super undersized guys trying to find the next like Tyree kill or something. And it just hasn't really seemed to work out. I think Elijah Moore is going to be the exception to the rule. And so that's why I'm hoping, you know, Juan Dale can turn into like a guy like Elijah Moore. But like you said, you know, he's kind of, he's less of a pure receiver and he's more of like a hybrid type player. He was a running back at Nebraska for a little while there. I think he transferred to Kentucky because he didn't want to play running back. And frankly, he wasn't big enough to play running back. And so, but he does have that skill set. So I don't know. He's just

he's such an interesting guy. And like you, you know, your model loved him. I think because his production was just outstanding. And he's pretty young and all that stuff. So again, it's, He's just kind of one of the most intriguing guys. But other than that, I really like their draft. Daniel Bellinger for the Giants, I think is one of the most intriguing tight end in this class, like super athlete. Big guy moves really, really well, like natural mover, but basically no production or very little production in college.

So I think he's going to be an interesting one. I think they're going to try and turn him into like Dawson Knox part two. And so, yeah, I just overall really like their draft. Yeah. So Elijah Moore is one inch. taller and for people who, you know, have these thresholds, that's like a massively important threshold that's just one inch for some reason. Because like if you go five, nine and up, you have the Marquis Browns, Steve Smith Jr., West Welker of the world. And then if you go five,

eight and under, it's really just Cole Beasley and no one else. What I think is interesting is Brian Davele was asked about this and he was just like, yeah, listen, wide receivers get open in various ways. Some, you know, Drake London used their heights. Some just have unreal get off the line, others, blah, blah, blah. And he was like, yeah, I've had a number of shorter wide receivers throughout my career who have done extremely well. He named drop Dion Branch, the Super Bowl MVP winner. Isaiah McKenzie, Cole Beasley. who's like the only 5-8 and under wide receiver who's done anything, except for maybe Taylor Gabriel, Andrew Hawkins,

but Dave on Austin, but like less successful, I think versus draft capital. And so during the presser, the GM, as he was listing off those comps, the GM said Wes Welker. And it was like this weird thing where it's like,

oh, is he kind of saying like, V-view Wondale as their Wes Welker-esque slot-wide receiver. But then I looked it up. Brian Daible never played with Wes Welker. So he gave him this, like, he gave the GM this dirty look as soon as the GM said it. I'm like, oh, snap, is, you know, did he want to keep that under wraps? And I think it's just like the GM screwed it up because I don't think Daibble has ever played with Wes Welker or coached.

Right, right. Right. He always, like, just missed each other during the New England tenure. I'm also wondering, too, if like, you know, It's always fun to try and interpret those, like, looks. Like sometimes teams, I think, make the mistake of comparing their draft picks to, like, really good, like, super productive players. And you don't want to, like, set those expectations too high immediately.

Like, I remember the Seahawks used to let, they used to let their scouts do some of the press conferences, like back, I don't know, it was like six or seven years ago. And, you know, the scouts started making these mistakes of, like, comparing some of these guys that they've been spent the last, like, year, like, scouting to, like, all-time great. you know, players. And these are like mid-round picks that they're comparing to these like future Hall of Fame players. And so I think number one, it gets like fans a little too riled up and too excited about

players that are probably just going to be like special teams like contributors. You know what I mean? And so I think that might have been what that was. Who knows? It's definitely, you know, you have to kind of play psychologist at this point in time when you're trying to figure out what teams feel and, you know, how they view them. I listened to your pod about the presser's, by it was very intriguing and important for like,

kind of like trying to figure out the context for all these guys. And it's just so funny because some teams will just straight up tell you the truth. And other teams like, you know, the Texans are just like, it's like freaking, you know, banging your head against the wall. They're not going to tell you anything. Damien Pierce, you know, we're very excited to see what he does on special teams. Like gunning. Yeah.

And special teams only. Oh, God. So that's just like brutal. But yes, I do think. you know, getting back to the Wondale thing. Like, he's going to be one of the more intriguing picks. I, I just took him in a Superflex draft at 211, 212, which is a humble brag for me winning the league last year, by the way.

But I don't know, like, I don't know how I feel about it. You know what I mean? Like, I'm still like a little, like, is that a reach? Is that a value? I still really don't know how to feel about him. Well, I will say the first, you, the Giants were the only team you gave two, A plus is two in the first round. There you go.

The cowboys who notoriously have the best scouting department in the NFL, just when it comes to like pure film analysis and evaluation, had Neil and Tibido, is there one and two overall, according to the league. Jerry Jones draft board, he showed reporters for not the first time in his history. Yeah, the Ravens, obviously everyone loves that. I just thought it was interesting. They sort of eschewed the talking points related to positional value. Right, right.

A safety and a center, punter, two tight ends. Yeah. I don't know. I think you're right, though. It's interesting because I think my initial reaction was the Ravens just do such a good job of letting the draft fall to them. And like my analogy was essentially they just let their opponents make a mistake. They're just so good. Like they're like Roger Federer, like just they return everything.

They don't let any balls get past them. They don't even have to like hit with power. They just like let the other player make a mistake kind of deal. And that's kind of, I mean, I don't know tennis very well, but Federer maybe does hit with a lot of power probably. So tennis people are probably just cringing right now. But like the point is basically like just let your opponent make a mistake. Like basically you psych out your opponent before they even start.

And I feel like that's kind of the Ravens, how they do it basically is just let the draft fall to them. They don't panic. You know, and in this case, you're right, though, they did kind of take a couple of outlier type players. And Hamilton, who is a little bit slower than you want and, like, you know, safety doesn't generally go quite as high in the draft. And then Linderbom, who has outlier length, like he's short arms and short body or whatever. And so, but at the end of the day, like, these are two of the top players at their position. And then they got a job in the third round, you know, who is coming off in Achilles, but he would have been probably a top 15 pick if they hadn't, if he hadn't gotten hurt.

So, of course, this could go down and look like a terrible draft in the future, but like I just like their process and they get really good players, get players that will start right away. You know, they got the arbitrage version of Jordan Davis in the second and third round in Travis Jones. You know, I really like Daniel Falerle, the tackle from Minnesota. We like Charlie Kohler coming into the draft and Isaiah likely. They like the Baltimore Ravens, for whatever reason, they like to double up on positions and drafts. If you go back through their drafts, like they take like two tight ends or two receivers

or whatever. For whatever reason, that always seems to be what they do. So I don't know. But yeah, it's one of those things where we'll find out in a few years if taking a couple of outliers is actually stupid. But I just felt like they really nailed it based on like the values I have. had on guys. Yeah, I, I, I, I, I love their, their process with the likely pick or what he said when

he took him. They were sort of like, he's a tweener. We don't really know how he fits. He's not really, uh, big or athletic enough to be a tight end. Like, but he's probably too big to be a wide receiver. But I mean, all he did was make plays. So, screw it. We'll, we'll, we'll bring him on to the team and see if we can find a spot for him.

So, uh, yeah. It's six fourth rounders. I think yeah they had six fourth rounders so it's like uh you know at that point in the draft after the fourth round I'd say like even maybe you could even say after the third round it's all just scratch tickets it's all just darts um and so yeah I mean taking a guy like likely who he would have gone much earlier if he was really athletic because he was super productive but guys they're going in the fourth round there's always something wrong with them or whatever you know based on the scattering ports and he was unathletic but he was super super super athletic but he was super

So maybe there's just something there that can get value because, you know, he's field fast or whatever. He's just not a good tester. So I don't know. Yeah. Overall, though, I think, you know, they picked up a lot of good players, Beatty, Tyler Beatty. Another running back I really like. He could be more relevant than we think based on whether Gus Edwards and Jackie Dobbins are fully healthy this year, too, is kind of the thinking, too. Like maybe that they see him as a guy who can play all three downs if one of those two guys.

ends up like hurting re-injuring themselves or like falling back in in their recovery or whatever yeah yeah that's a good point that was also a guy uh my model was was much higher on than than NFL consensus the Ravens with with six fourth rounders yeah that really interesting they just identified months ago that that's where they thought the sweet spot of this draft was going to be in terms of value just with so many players having to return after a COVID-shortened 2020 season that it was going to make for a much deeper class than as typical. And I just have to say, like, the Ravens just strike me always as, you know, one of the smartest teams in the NFL at every level, the GM, the area scouts, and then the position coaches.

Like, I'll read transcripts from, like, the running back coach, and you'll think it's, like, Kyle Shanahan or Bill Belichick or just brilliant. And it's just like a running back coach. Yeah. Any other teams you wanted to talk about? I thought, obviously, the Jets, everyone's saying the Jets did an amazing job, except for PFF, who's giving them an F for taking a running back in round two. Luckily, they trade up into round one or else it would have been, you know, just all hell

hell would have broken loose with the best. No, I think, again, with the Jets too, it was like, you know, know, they got, I think my top rated corner, my top rated receiver, a very highly rated defensive end and Jermaine Johnson, my top ranked running back. So they got like three of my top ranked players at different positions. Kind of like the, you can say the same thing about like the Ravens, like, you know, you could quibble with who they're taking or how they're going about getting those players, but they, at the end of the day, they came away with, you know, four starters immediately, plus a couple other

guys that might be a starter. Like record might start pretty early. career. So yeah, I really liked what the Jets did. I downgrade them a little bit. Like based on like my round one grades, like I downgraded them just a slight amount for trading back up because they did trade back up for Elijah Vera Tucker last year too. And so basically they're trading up for these non-preming positions. They still have a terrible roster relative to the rest of the NFL. You know, those picks could turn into be important players. You know, you're giving up future picks. You're giving out current picks to move up and get guys. But, you know, it's more of just a quibble. It's like a

slight downgrade because they're still getting good players with those picks. And Vera Tucker is going to turn into a really good guard. I think Jermaine Johnson should be a really good starter for them. Brise Hall should be, you know, foundation back for them. So it's tough to like really downgram too much. It's just more like a process thing. Yeah. According to Joe Douglas himself, they've gotten seven of their top 20 players. on their board over the past two seasons, which is just like crazy. So, you know, if his analysis is right, if his evaluation is correct, like they should be really good, really soon.

And I just love how they've totally spoiled Zach Wilson in contrast to, you know, Chicago. They're like, here's Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, Jeremy Rucker, Breeze Hall, offensive lineman. And then Chicago's like, we got you, Vueless Jones. He's older than you. Yeah. And someone you can look up to, you know, an older person who's seen the world, maybe done a little traveling.

They know the ways of the world. Yeah, it's, it's, oh, my God, it's so annoying. Of course, the bears are just like a couple years behind because the Jets had the advantage of, you know, bringing in new, new coach, new GM, and starting this whole process sooner. Obviously, the bears, you know, took fields and then waited a year. to fire their head coach and fire their GM. And that just sets them back. And of course, now you could see them enter a tailspin when it comes to fields bait.

Because, you know, you could see them kind of like, they have a plan clearly. It's to save a bunch of money like because they didn't go out and sign anybody in free agency, really, save a bunch of money, have the cat be really flexible for 2023 and beyond. You know, they started their draft with two defensive players. They're obviously, you know, catering to their defensive head coach now and trying to, build the foundation, everything, but like, I don't know, if I'm them, there's nothing that's more important than managing fields and getting fields to a level that can, he can be like a high level quarterback. Maybe they don't believe in him. Maybe this is them just implicitly telling us how they feel

about them. I don't really think that's what's happening, but some people kind of interpreted it that way. I just think they're just taking the slow track and building the way that they think they need to build, which is, you know, again, getting the cap figured out, getting the cap flexible for the future and then rebuilding the foundation. They didn't have a first round pick. That doesn't help either. Whereas the Jets have had like multiple top 10 picks in the last couple years. And so that certainly helps their cause.

But yeah, I'm very sort of depressed about what the bears are doing with fields because I was really higher on fields coming in. And it honestly has turned into like worst case scenario for him in almost every way. So not great. That's kind of about that. All right. Well, who do you think had the worst draft? And I know that's like not really a fair question to ask. Well, there's a couple guys, a couple teams that like earned pretty low grades and at least the way that I do it. And like for starters, there's teams that, you know, like the Rams you didn't even pick till like, you know, day two, late day two or day three. I can't even remember where they started picking. But, you know, where you come in when you just don't have a lot of potential draft capital. Their first pick was 105. So they're not going to earn like a huge grade just based on the fact that they didn't have a lot of picks to use.

And also like it depends on how you're grading this too because some people, and I think this would make sense is some people use the players you acquire in a draft as part of the draft grade for instance. So like, you know, with the Rams like you could include Stafford in their draft or Rams like in prior years where they're trading first round picks for established players. same with the Eagles like for instance grabbing AJ Brown but like in terms of drafts I didn't really like I don't I I'm a process person like and I when we we briefly touched

on it in terms of like trading out for non-quarterbacks like the saints are they just like have the worst process in my mind like the absolute worst process and they've actually managed to like keep the thing afloat and do pretty well and like make hit like

pick good players using this process. But like I think over the long run, this, their kind of process where they're trading multiple future picks and big like huge draft capital to move up and draft a defensive end or receiver in this case. In the long run, like that will come back to bite them because then you have like no depth. You have to pay depth players. And then it just messes up your cap. And it seems like we've been saying the same thing about the Saints forever. So maybe I'm just wrong and they are really just like geniuses, but their process of trading up, number one, trading into the first round in this class. In the middle of the first round in this class, they traded a future first to get into

the like the worst class in whatever, how long, you know? And then they traded up again to get 180 pound receiver. They traded like five picks to get Olave. And so to me, process wise, I don't even care about who the player is other than if this wasn't a quarterback, I hate that process. And so just looking at the, the Saints draft like process wise, I think it doesn't make any sense. It's basically saying we know more than everybody else. And we're going to give up a whole bunch of future, future dart throws and future, you know, shots at the target to pick this guy that we think is going to change everything for us. And that was what they did with the Lave. I didn't particularly like Trevor Penning coming in to the draft. So them picking him was just like a cherry on top of what I thought was bad process. And I don't think Penning is a, uh, you know, he might end up being a day one star, but I think he's got a lot of work to do. So they kind of, I think they viewed this as like, we just need one or two players and we're going to be Super Bowl contenders, blah, blah, blah. But I don't know if Alave is that much of a game changer.

Like he's basically a wide receiver two. And then penning to me is is a work in progress coming from a smaller school. He's an older guy who, frankly, wasn't that great at the senior ball against like better competition. So like it's just going to be, I don't know, like, again, I just didn't like their process. Like I know that a lot of Saints fans probably really like those two players. And Alave in particular, I don't have anything against Alave, but like when you're giving up five future picks or whatever it was to move up and draft a receiver, like that's just bad process in my mind. Yeah. So I'm in complete agreement. I think by far Saints had the worst draft. That trade with

the Eagles was was so bad. And this is just sort of like who they are and who their philosophy is. or what their philosophy is. Adam Troutman, I remember he was like a third round pick and they traded like their fourth, two-fifths, a sixth and a seventh, like the remainder of their draft just to move up to take him. They're just burning, burning picks. But I've actually come around on like my criticism for trading up.

And it's like, oh, it's so smart. Just always trade down, always trade down. And yeah, I've kind of done a 180. on that, not with the Saints. That that trade was awful. But for instance, the dolphins trade up for Waddle. You know, I really trash that. And I still think that wasn't a great trade. But if you think about it pre hindsight where it's like, okay, maybe there's a 50-50 chance we'll get Jamar Chase or Kyle Pitts or worst case scenario we get Jalen Waddle. And if you look at like what those picks were, it's like is jalen waddleworth cadarius and johan dotson trade up like yeah maybe right um and then the the

lion's trade trade uh trade up for james and williams or the vikings made no sense to me because they moved up 20 spots in round one 20 spots in round two uh or round three to round two and they gave up the extra round two which was like exactly what green bay gave up to move up in round two for Christian Watson. And there's like a clear tier falloff after James and Williams. And I also think like even if they didn't take James James and Williams, if they just like traded back three spots and then traded back five spots and then traded back seven spots, I feel like they could have recouped far more value than they actually gave up in that trade.

But I don't know. It just seemed like the Vikings sold themselves short in that. Yeah. There's, I think NFL teams are more. much more willing to move up for non-coribate. It used to be sort of like rare, I think, at least like these big, huge moves where you're giving up future first to move up in the first round for a non-coribate. And now it's like, teams are moving up all over the board here.

And especially I think in this draft where there was such a plateau of, I think, perceived talent and perceived players, basically after you get out of the top 10 or 12 or whatever, there's just a big plateau of guys. You could pick any of the 50 guys there. and it'd be like, okay, that makes sense, you know. And so, but the other thing, like, to add into just the final thought on the Saints is like, the Saints moved up to get Oliva and James and Williams still on the board too. So, you know, I don't know, like, yeah, didn't love that.

I think that the Lions trade up was less egregious because they didn't give up multiple picks to get in that spot in the first place to get into number 32, you know, whereas the Saints pre-maneuvered to get to wherever it was 16. and then they moved up again. I don't know. It just didn't make any sense to me. When you look at the amount of capital they're giving up to get this player,

the amount of different players that are still available for them to trade that capital for more established players or different positions or whatever, man, the opportunity cost could just be massive. So that's just kind of like where I looked at it. But generally speaking, I don't really like tradeups. And, you know, when you're giving up like,

in this case, like the meat of the draft, too, is like second, third round picks. there's some really good players in there that could fill out your roster and, you know, give you the depth that you need. Injuries happen every year. The wheels, you know, if you have good players in a lot of positions, the wheels aren't going to fall off. You have one guy to get hurt, whereas basically they're just putting all their eggs into one or two baskets.

So I just don't like that process. So we talked about my team and my homerism with the Giants. Let's talk a little bit about your team because I can sell myself. two ways. Granted, one is far more likely than the other, but I think there's a possibility where the Seahawks just defy all odds and, you know, Drew Locke is a serviceable replacement. The lean extremely run heavy and they sneak into the playoffs. And like, it's, it's almost like they don't even realize that they just traded away a tier one quarterback. Or Russell Wilson goes to Denver and immediately year one has that sort of Peyton Manning year one Denver year and just lights it up.

55 touchdowns. Oh my gosh. Yeah. So what's going to happen, Danny? What's going on? Are is Pete Carroll the smartest man in the room and everyone thinks he's the dumbest or is he just as dumb as we think? There's no middle ground. No.

I don't think he's the smartest man in the room. but I do think that with the way that they want to play ball and the way that they are committed to playing or whatever like paying a quarterback 50 million a year or whatever maybe doesn't make sense for what they want to do and obviously there's a lot of question marks about the way that they want to do things but you know Carol's not changing and so maybe this move in the long run made sense maybe it made sense from the point of view that Russell Wilson was going to leave anyway in like a year year or two and might as well get a couple first round picks for him at this point and rebuild your

roster rather than having him leave and get a third round comp pick or something. And so, you know, I kind of, I can see like where the CX are coming from in training him, but ultimately, like, I don't think it's a good decision. And ultimately, I don't think the way that they design their offense and the way that they think that they're best going to win, I don't, I don't really think that's, I think you change your strategy when you have a tier one course. back or tier two, I guess, if whatever, whatever, wherever you want to put Russell Wilson. That's where you start to build your offense and your team around him, not like say, oh, we've been winning for a certain way for 50 years, so we're just going to keep doing what

we're doing. To me, that felt like a little bit, you know, I don't know what the word is, hubris maybe or something, but denial. Who knows? But like at the end of the day, like I said, at least they did get a lot for him, you know, now rather than letting him walk in a year or two and kind of going down that road. So I think with their draft this year, like they did a pretty damn good job of kind of setting a new foundation for the way that they want to play.

Picked a couple of tackles, picked a couple of corners, picked a couple defensive ends. Like this is the types of positions you want to invest in. Obviously, people are going to be, people are upset about the Kenneth Walker pick. But like when, again, when you're wanting to run the offense to see how to run, like being able to create explosive plays on the ground is important. important, maybe the most important thing that they're going to do because they are so just dedicated to being balanced and running the ball. I just keep coming back to the idea, like, the Seahawks are going to run the ball regardless of who's that quarterback. And regardless of like how the game is going

kind of deal. And so getting explosive plays on the ground is like so important. Because if they're just getting two, three, two, three like, you know, yards for carry, like no, like no gain, loss of loss of one. Like they're just going to be backing themselves up into like, third and seven, third and eight, third and ten, like five, six, seven times a game. So they got, they have to have a guy who can kind of create on his own, I think. And we saw like, you know, some flashes of it last year with Rashad Penny where he was just ripping off 20, 30, 40 yard runs like several times a game. And that completely freaking changed their entire like offense.

And so I kind of get the investment in a high level running back. Like I don't think that's necessarily a fungible thing where you just plug any running back in. He's going to start doing that for you. No, I don't think so. So, you know, that's kind of where I land. I'm not really on the, there's a lot of Seox fans are like such a waste picking a running back in the second round when you're rebuilding. And I understand where that's coming from. But I don't think, number one, they don't think they're rebuilding. They just think they're kind of like getting back to their roots. But number two, I also see the value in an explosive runner like Walker, because I think there's a massive, huge tier drop after him in terms of the running

backs in this class and who's available in free agency and all that. I think I get the argument more than most analytic people that, you know, winning based on an elite defense plus a running back and maybe you're not spending all this money on an elite quarterback after his rookie contract. And, you know, you're built in a contrarian way. We are in the playoffs. You know, all these teams have speed, low BMI guys on defense to defend the pass. And then you're built this opposite way that could really give you an edge. And so I just sort of get it that like Tennessee could have been a problem in the playoffs.

You'd rather be, you know, Josh Allen and the Bills or Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but you never know. But at the same time, I mean, where would you rank Seattle? defense and where would you rank tennessee's defense those two teams just really oh and indianapolis three teams really built on the run yeah uh i don't think any of them have top five defenses right the the seahawks i'd would be lucky to get into like the top 20 at this point i mean they're going to get better um i think but yeah i mean this is the way that and again again i think it comes down to the idea like p carroll probably felt like obviously there's

There's been pushback from the media and fans for years on this whole Russell Wilson, let Russ Cook thing. And I think Carol, from his point of view, probably feels like, look, we spent all this money on Russell Wilson. We've been one of the more past heavy teams in the NFL during stretches in the last few years. Like, if you look up the stats, like they actually are pretty past heavy team under Russell Wilson during stretches, not during the whole time, but during some, you know, parts of the Russell Wilson era.

And he probably looks at it like, look, I kind of like, sacrificed my moral conviction that this is the way you win because like blah blah blah like he probably looks like he was being flexible you know um whereas everybody's like oh be carol he just won't change he probably thinks he did change um and finally now he's just like all right enough of this crap like i'm sick i think honestly like he's just sick of having his defense being like so shitty and they have uh just dedicated so much to the offense and russell wilson in general that like it's hard to build an elite defense when you are dedicating so much your cap to the quarterback and to surrounding the quarterback with the good players, blah, blah, blah.

So I think, you know, again, this is like my point of view, like studying Carol and Wilson closely over the last like 10 years, like I bet you anything he thinks he has been pretty flexible, whereas most of the fans are like, oh, he's never changing, blah, blah, blah. So I think he's probably really number one sick of having crappy defense. he's he's he is really really he gets very very upset when they turn the ball over like he like i think he wouldn't mind if they pass the ball a lot and like create explosive place to the air like he loves doing that but like turnovers are the worst thing that's that is possible in football and like the reason he's shut down the let russ cook thing is because wilson started

turning the ball over a lot um he thinks that's like the easiest way to lose a game like that's like guaranteed if you lose the turnover battle like you're you're going to lose the game. Like in, in Carroll's mind, nothing is more important than winning the turnover battle. Basically, he's trying to eliminate like variance in game to game.

And then the other thing that like is important for Carol is being able to run when you need to run. And when like he basically is like he believes you can't just like manufacture a run game when you need to run it. And so like you have to be 100% committed to it and like build around that and have the mentality and the mindset. and the identity of a running team, you can't just like manufacture a run game when you need it.

So basically if Russell Wilson's off in a certain game or if he gets hurt like he did last year, they're basically up Schitt's Creek. That's how Pete Carroll sees it. And he never wants to be in a position where they're like wholly reliant on one player, even though maybe that's the reality of the NFL right now. It's just like teams you're fucked if your quarterback gets hurt kind of deal. But I'm just like looking at Pete Carroll over the years

and in his philosophies. And so I guess I'm playing, or I'm sort of trying to, like, explain his point of view, like that's why he was willing to trade. Wilson, why he's so adamant about having balance and running the ball and all that. Like, it's just, like, philosophically, like,

the core of who he is. So, I don't know. I probably sound like I'm just, you know, rationalizing everything this stupid team is doing right now. And part of me is like, yeah, you're idiots. You just traded away your franchise quarterback. Like, of course, this is going to go terribly. But I guess I'm trying to kind of explain like why Carol did what they did.

Yeah. All I heard was Russell Wilson seven touchdowns in week one, just like Peyton Manning. They were going to smash. Do you actually, do you actually believe that it's going to be that different though? Like part of me is just like Russell is probably going to look pretty much exactly the same in Denver as he did in Seattle. I don't know. Like maybe I'll end up being wrong. Well, I mean, if you, if you're saying the biggest thing for Carol was no turnover. that means he's overrating interceptions and underrating the importance of sacks, which Russell Wilson, the notorious sacks or a QB stat. It would be interesting to see, yeah, maybe he just opens it up.

Maybe he's willing to take more risks. And, you know, he has a surplus of weapons that he hasn't had in Seattle in a really long time. And maybe he just lights the world on fire. The only thing I'll say is talking to Greg Giselle, Cassell has really harped on this point that he, I don't want to put words into his mouth, but basically that Wilson is extremely overrated in comparison to some other quarterbacks.

And like he was saying last year, Matthew Stafford is a much better quarterback than Russell Wilson. Matthew Stafford is extremely underrated. You should be betting Matthew Stafford to win MVP and Super Bowl MVP. And so like, I mean, Greg is great at a lot of positions, but by far, like, almost no one comes close to him. It comes to evaluating quarterback play. And so I'm probably less bullish on Russ than most just for that reason. But I mean, just the philosophical differences and then the personnel differences, I could really see if the thesis that Russell Wilson is a top five quarterback in the NFL is correct.

He could really set the world on fire this year. And Denver smashers. I know. That was a team that was just they have everything except for the quarterback, suppose of it. Right, right. Yeah. I mean, it's, I don't know, like, are Cortland Sutton and Jerry Judy better than

D.K. McK. McAfff and Tyler Lockett? Like, I kind of feel like it's a wash at the receiver position, if not a downgrade. Like, D.K. McCaff, I think, is freakishly good. And so maybe I'm underrating how good. those guys are. It's definitely possible. I don't know honestly, like how good the Denver Broncos offensive line is if it's like much, much better than what the Seahawks have. And then I think their run game probably will be better. I think Javonte Williams is like a top five back, if not more. And Melvin Gordon is definitely really good still. So I don't know. I'm just kind of like,

I don't see it as like a huge upgrade for Russell Wilson. I think maybe they'll let him play and he maybe won't have quite as many restrictions on him, which is probably going to be good. And ultimately, his stats probably be a little bit better. But I don't think he's necessarily going to change completely. Also, you know, I think what Greg is saying is, you know, number one, Russell Wilson's never been all that great at, like, navigating a muddy pocket. Like, he basically is, like the fact that he's 511, 510, 3 quarters, or whatever it is he is, does matter.

Like he doesn't throw the middle of the field. He doesn't like, he's not very comfortable stepping up in the pocket and operating from the pocket. He can pass from behind the pocket or get outside and throw around like, you know, on the move and things like that. But like when he's like deep in the pocket, like his height does matter. You know what I mean? There's a bunch of six foot eight guys. It's like imagine yourself in the paint if you're like a five foot 10 guy.

You just can't really see. So I think there are some some real limitations to his game. But that being said, like I mean, the stats, I think speak for himself over the last 10 plus. years like you know you're one of the most efficient pastors of all time uh incredibly incredibly incredibly efficient down the field uh you know there he has some elite elite strengths even though he does have i think some some weaknesses like anybody but um maybe he's not as complete of a player some of these other uh top tier quarterbacks but i think the the peak stuff that he can do is is elite so that's what i'll say about wilson i i don't know for sure if it's going to be this total sea

see change where he's like a whole new player in Denver and all of a sudden he is cooking like everybody wanted him to do in Seattle. If he does, that would great because, you know, then the fans I think would feel a lot of validation for that. But I'm also not like, I don't fully believe that he's just going to look completely different in Denver. I think it's probably going to be pretty similar to what we saw in Seattle. I think there's a 0.9% chance, which is not a 0% chance that uh drew lock throws for more passing yards than russellson this year that would be freaking hilarious gets to do the what is it the who's the man not you i am the bowling who do you think i are or yeah what does he say he's like who do you think you are who do you think you are i am yeah um so

So I buried, I bury the lead as I, as I always do in articles and podcasts. Let's, let's break down like the top 15 or so players by consensus ADP in rookie drafts and see if we have any thoughts in this. The only thing I want to say before we get into that is we were, we were kind of sweating it at a certain point. You especially, because you're a mock draft guy, who by the way, what do you hit? 30 of 32 players in round. one? I got, well, I got a 32, 30 out of 32 players in round one right. I didn't get very many team player connections. Yeah, that's, that's, that's, that's all, that's all rain out. So Danny won the mat draft, best mock draft. I'm the winner of the year. According to the NFL teams. Yeah, yeah. That's right. The two guys I got wrong, Cole Strange, obviously. I don't think anyone had him in a first round month. Right. And then I had Malik Willis in the first round, and he fell to the third. which was a big shock for everybody. That was weird.

I think who's the other guy I missed? Oh, I had to have a kiddie in the first round, and he fell to the early second. So otherwise, I felt pretty good about, like, getting all those players in the first round right. I would have been happier if I had gotten a few more player team connections,

but it's all right. It's fine. So you should feel very happy and pleased with yourself. But as I was saying, a few weeks before the draft, we were not feeling too good. It felt like we were under assault and under siege by relentless smoke screens and adjut prop and sci ops where we were just questioning everything.

We were like, wait. We were like, dude, Traylon Burks is awesome. And it's like, wait, is Traylon Burks going to go like late round three? Or can Drake London separate at all? Or is he not? And just like, oh, Kvon Tibido? It's like this guy is awesome. And then we were like, wait a second.

He's not a fall till 12. And then it turned out like it was all BS. And I like barely had to touch my, I've never seen anything like this. I barely had to touch my pre-draft rankings. Oh, yeah. Yeah. And your mock hit 30 of 32. It was, it ended up being pretty chalky, I guess, is what you're saying.

Right. Everyone's saying, throw out your mocks. This is, you know, no one's going to get anything right. it and no that's wrong um i think yeah and and especially with like the skill players uh you know like there was an early round on running our receivers like we thought you know because like i think there was something like we basically go in circles the last during the two or three months run up to the draft like scott and i for peak behind the curtain are like working feverishly at trying to like predict draft cap for for everybody because it matters and when because basically we do a lot of

pre-draft rookie draft where being correctly or being able to correctly predict how early players are going to go is a good way to make sure you don't completely light draft picks on fire in second turn fourth round because if you like pick a second round receiver who are sorry if you pick a receiver in the second round of a rookie draft and then that receiver goes on day three like the value is almost immediately going to be shot in most cases and you basically wasted that pick so scott and i work really hard at trying to like figure out who's going to go high. Like we were really high on a couple of players that went earlier,

much earlier than I expected. Like Thornton, for instance, pat yourself on the back on that one, Scott, because I know that your model was, like, pretty high on him relative to, like, most people. And in the second round, that doesn't mean he's going to be a great player, of course, but it just means the NFL kind of was seeing what we were seeing. So Wondell Robinson is another example. I think, like, the small guy thing was weighing on a lot of people's minds, but, like, obviously the NFL doesn't seem to care about this.

So, but yeah, yeah, I think the draft like overall, like people are, I think kind of upset. It feels to me like people are upset about landing spots, but I thought there's pretty good landing spots for a lot of these guys. And like I said, you don't have to like really do too many major adjustments. Like you don't have to push Burke's down a lot because he fell. He's like 18th pick and he replaces AJ Brown almost like one for one scenario here. So that's good for him. You know, you got Garrett Wilson and London going top 10, which is huge.

for both those guys. So yeah. Do you want to hear what my, uh, Taekwant Thornton comp is? Yeah. It's, uh, Jameson Williams with 20% thinner wrists. The wrists thing. Yeah. The wrist thing is my favorite, uh, a full round cheaper in draft capital. Yeah. Yeah. He's got, uh, he has to wear, uh, he has to punch extra holes in his watch band. But that's okay because he's really fast. Literally the fastest ever by 10-yard split. What are we doing here?

I think like, why was, this is like a, this is such a good glimpse into like traditional NFL draft scouting and the way that scouts think for NFL teams, the way that decision makers think for NFL teams, it's like, obviously number one, it's a, it's a physical game. And, you know, you're having huge human beings hit you at full speed. Therefore, having, I mean, for lack of a better way of putting it, like, thick bones, like matters to scouts. Like, having not breakable bones is an important thing. Like, I've heard, like, scouts talking about, you know, always, like, he's got really thick, like, bone structure. Like, his legs are really thick.

Like, how do you, I don't know, number one, how you measure that? Like, do they measure that? Apparently, they do measure that if he was on record as being the thinnest wrist guy. I know there's some things that sound hilarious that are actually meaningful, like an offensive lineman with a bubble butt. But I know that there's like other things that definitely aren't like, oh, the quarterback has an ugly girlfriend. Right. Psychological shit. Well, the psych evals, I think, that teams are doing are probably just fucking all over the board.

Like there's so much noise there that it's like impossible to like actually pay attention to it. a deal. So, but I don't know. Yeah. Except I get that George Pickens fell now after watching that clip of him. Yeah, where he's watching himself get drafted. Yeah. That sends up some red flags, I guess. But yes, this is like a perfect example of like why the draft is so hard to predict and why it's almost, it almost feels like futile to do. do pre-draft evaluation, like for me, because I do a draft guide. And like half the time I'm like, it feels futile, especially for like the quarterback position in general, just I could say, oh, this guy's a big arm.

He's pretty accurate. But it really, really matters where he lands. It really, really matters what he has, you know, like between the ears kind of deal, like how quickly he can process things, how quickly he can, you know, isolate and eliminate as Greg Koselle likes to say go through reeds see the field basically like you know some of the great all-time players of different sports I just have an innate knack for the game they can see the field differently they can see the field the the rink whatever you call like the ice i'm just thinking of like um you know gretsky was so great in part or at least a big part of the

reason he was so great is because he had just like this ability to almost like see the future based on like where people were skating down dice like oh i can i can kind of like see it's like the sherlock holmes thing you know in the sherlock holmes movies where he like predicts like 17 moves in advance like um where a guy's going to punch and he plans out his whole thing like this was like what gretsky was so great at it's like he can see in three dimensions like how people are going to like end up being like in five seconds online and then he can get there and make a play uh you you see the same thing in basketball guys can just see see the court better. They just know where everybody is at all times. Brady can drop back and see

where everyone is and anticipate where everyone's going to be. And so this is the type of shit that you have to deal with when you're trying to scout quarterbacks. It's like, how the fuck are we supposed to know this stuff? You know, you can see some of it on tape, of course. But I think if it was really more apparent or if it, if there was ways to like, you know, look at the numbers and do analyses that way, like, teams would be better at hitting on quarterback. Like, there wouldn't be like a 50% like, you know, bust rate in the first round or whatever it is. It might be worse.

So the mental side of it is important. But I also think that NFL teams just don't have, they're just not good at that part either. So it's just, like, tough to know. Yeah, I'm really glad I don't have to do any rookie quarterback analysis. and I just throw my hands up and say nothing's predictive because I'm sure I would have gotten so embarrassed this year by, you know, gassing up Malik Willis and Sam Howell. Yeah. Well, I mean, look, I thought I was low on the quarterbacks in this class because I think I had, I had like, I had it like Willis Ritter picket sort of in the top tier. And then I had Howell and Corral in like the 50s or something.

And I was like, I'm going to be looked at as a hater if these guys go in the first round, blah, blah, blah. Turns out the NFL hated them way more than I did. You know, Howell felt to the fifth round, which is just like wild. I mean, especially when you look at... Especially if you look back at last year where, like, Kyle Trask and Kell and Mond are going like of a two, three turn. Like, these guys fell further than those guys. Like, that is just wild to me. So I think the long of the short of it is it's very hard to play quarterback.

It's very hard to evaluate quarterback. And I'm washing my hands of all quarterback evaluation. I'm contractually obligated to rank these guys, but like landing spot is so important. Surrounding sporting cast is so important. I mean, that's why you've seen these NFL teams, like, you know, move heaven and earth to try and find guys to like surround with their rookie quarterbacks because it's like literally probably more important than the actual player. at quarterback is like having a good sports system for that player. So good on the Jets for doing that because I think it's given me critical to see. Like if Zach Wilson succeeds,

it's because they did all that work, I think, to like surround him. You know, you'd see probably, Josh Allen probably wouldn't be in the league anymore if the bills hadn't done that kind of deal. You know what I mean?

That might be like hyperbole, but like he was like not good at his first years. They really did a lot of work to surround him with great players and kind of get him into position. It took a while, but to get them in position to like finally start succeeding. So, yeah, again, a long way of saying, you know, this like quarterback especially is just kind of a crapshoot. All right. Let's dig into some of these rookies. I was going to go in order, but I think it's better to just ask you your opinion on some various guys. Yeah. Sky Moore and Christian Watson currently rank as the wide receiver eight and wide receiver

nine. Watson has far better draft capital, both very similarly excellent landing spots. Do you have a flag to plant on Moore versus Watson? I'm much more excited about more than I am Watson. I think Watson, a couple of red flags with Watson, whereas more, I mean, look, both of them are smaller school guys, so I think you could call that a little bit of a wash. Christian Watson, is 23. Sky Moore is 21. So I think that does matter. Skymore is tethered to Patrick Mahomes for the long term in theory, whereas Watson is tethered to Aaron Rogers, who apparently his own team hates Aaron Rogers, like everybody hates Aaron Rogers. I don't know who like, do you know anyone that likes Aaron Rogers? Like, he's a two-time MVP.

Interesting. The way it was described to me from an insider is that Rogers is more well-liked than Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz because Rogers is like a bold-faced asshole. And so like the team- instead of hiding it. Yeah. The teammates respect him for just being like an asshole all the time. And he is who he is. And he gets it done. Whereas like Wenz and Wilson are like, I'm such a nice guy. And I'm like behind the scenes. they're just like an asshole. They don't even know they're an asshole. I think that's, yeah, that's probably, that makes a lot of sense.

But I mean, he could be gone in like a year or two. Well, okay, so that's what I was saying is number one. Like I prefer Skymore pretty significantly over, over Watson right now, at least, because number one, like I said, he's two years younger. Number two, he's attached to a quarterback who's on a 10-year contract versus, you know, Aaron Rogers, who is 38 years old and his team is never seemed to really like him. I mean, he's kind of just hard to predict what's going to happen in the future with him. The Packers, I believe, are probably going to be much more balanced offense in terms of their play volume versus the chiefs who I think are just going to throw it all over the field.

Still, I mean, I think they might try and run it a little bit more this year, but like that's just their identity. That's Andy Reed. So I think there's three huge advantages just off the bat with more versus Watson. Of course, Watson is a rare, rare athlete. And he may have more upside from that point of view as like an outside guy, like more efficiency down the field, more touchdowns potentially in the future. So that is keeping Watson, at least for me in the first round of rookie drafts. But I just am more bullish on more from a PPR point of view particularly because I think he's just going to get pepper with targets. Whereas Watson, I think, could have a longer runway to high volume.

and he just has, I think, more variance based on all those, all those variables. The other thing is, like, he isn't an elite rare, rare athlete, but he's also kind of got an outlier body type where he's like 6-4-209. You just don't see a lot of guys that fit that profile, like putting up huge numbers in the NFL. So that is another sort of just red flag for me. So I don't know. Like Watson, to me, is like really high variance. he has the elite upside but also you know maybe he's just mvess yeah i don't know i just naturally gravitate towards guys with that rare high high elite upside so i do take i do prefer watson over

more i think i think more is extremely overvalued at his adp just because like i don't know that he's that good i was calling him sky mid he just i just don't i didn't see what everyone else saw on by my production, my model didn't like him as much as everyone else's model seemed to like him. And then to back it all up, the NFL drafted him as like the wide receiver 13 in the class, but now he's wide receiver 8 by ADP. I will say something that goes into this is like expectations. I can't help but play a role. Sky Moore, everyone's like, oh, you're going to love Sky Moore.

He's like Elijah Moore. He's like Golden Tate. he's like Antonio Brown. And so it just like set the bar really high. Whereas for like a Watson or a Pierce who are older, small school, I expected to hate those guys, but I came away more impressed where it's sort of like you go to a movie and like, oh, you're going to hate this movie. It's mediocre.

You love it. Right? And the opposite is true too. But yeah, let's let's talk Alex Pierce then because he's another player who's not in sync with his draft capital. Yeah. I thought he landed in a great spot. He's wide receiver 14 by ADP.

I'm going to have him a little bit higher than that. And I was blown away by tape. Like the production model didn't like him. Athleticism model loved him. But production model didn't. And then I'm not a tape guy, but I watched the tape. And I loved the tape. He just like unreal explosion off the line.

You know, great on the deep routes. And he wasn't really used heavily on the shorter routes. but every time he was and targeted, he came away with the first down, made a nice play. So I saw a good upside there. And then just like reading reports on him, it's like the same anywhere you look. It's like high level athlete, a raw route runner, a tiny bit stiff hit, but great athlete, something like that. And I wish I was smart enough to be able to build a like machine learning tool that can just like pull in all of these scouting reports and and see what's meaningful and what's predictive. What's fixable at the NFL level and what isn't because when I read that, that was like the same thing people said about DK Metcalf.

It was the same thing people said about Debo Samuel. It's the same thing people said about A.J. Brown, I think. And so it's just like, yeah, I don't know. like a extremely high-level athlete, but a little bit raw as a route runner can be stiff-hipped at times. I don't know. What were your thoughts on, on Alec Pierce? Because I know you were a little lower than on him than I was. I don't think for him, it was, it was, um, nothing, nothing really just wowed me. I think I agree with you on his, he does have like a really, um, explosive sort of turbocharged acceleration off the line of scrimmage. You can get downfield. So like I see the, um, you know,

like the ceiling comp could be a, um, you know, like the ceiling comp could be a guy who's similar to a D.K. Mike McCaff stylistically, who, you know, in the right system, in theory, this system works for him, uh, for him with, with Matt Ryan, especially, um, having a, at quarterback, but like, as like a deep threat lid lifter, guy that gets down field can kind of win at the catch point. Um, but I don't know. Like, to me, it was just like a little limited, you know, there's not a lot of wiggle, not a lot of juice in the short and intermediate area.

Um, you know, he was kind of all over the place with a lot of people. So I think this was a good example or good microcosm for this class in general. Like there was no consensus on literally any player it felt like. You know, and I and I and we talked about this at the beginning of the plot. Like I think I loved a guy and then I talked myself into hating him and then I talked myself into being contrarian and loving a guy again. Like I went through so many phases with all these players. If I'm being totally honest, I watched Alec Pierce and I was like, yeah, he seems fine.

Like that was just kind of my reaction. and like I just didn't love him. But I think the landing spot is good. They draft capital is strong. The fact that it'll come in and be kind of like the number two to Pittman, I think makes a lot of sense. And, you know, he, I think does bring that sort of upside to be the surprise rookie, like, producer in year one who's just like scoring a lot of touchdowns and stuff.

Greg, the one concern for like fantasy. What's that? Greg liked him more than Drake London. Yeah. I mean, that is that is a that is like the one of the more intriguing like takes, I think of this like draft period. And I think part of that is partly due because like Kossel didn't like London at all, right? Like it was more default of, of he just didn't really like London. But he did really like Pierce. Yeah. So I mean, there's a lot to like clearly. The size speed combo, like the fact that he's one of the only. guys in this glass with like, you know, really like thick frame. Like obviously a lot of these guys are tall and fast, but they're super skinny. Um, and Pierce is, you know, six three, two 11. He has like the alpha, uh, frame to like be a number one guy in the NFL. So, um, I don't know. I guess the one where I have as, uh, from a fantasy point of view is that he kind of gets pigeonholed into like

a deep threat, uh, role where he's very high variance like, you know, the quote unquote better and best ball kind of guy. Um, whereas, you know, I don't. know if I necessarily see him getting high volume of targets and stuff in the game. So that's like my one worry. But, you know, I think the talent is certainly there, the athletic potential, the athletic explosion is all there. So that's definitely really intriguing. And I like the landing spot.

Yeah. Yeah, me too. Breeze Hall, what do we make of that? Like Michael Carter. Is he dust? I'm inclined to believe that he's probably dust. But I mean, Mike Clay, various others are predicting like a 60-40 committee. I think that's a little rich for my blood.

But what do you think, Danny? I think I tend to be more on the like he's dust point of view. I just think like they'll probably still utilize him as like a complimentary back and past catcher, but I don't think they'll probably view him as like having a big role. That's a problem. And that's been like the main issue that people had with him. is the draft capital wasn't there. And the fact that the Jets traded up,

and they were willing maybe to trade up into the first round to get a guy like Breece Hall. That's like this was the worst fear for, you know, a guy like Michael Carter who comes in with, he's undersized, he's elusive, maybe he doesn't have like one particular defining trait necessarily. And those guys sort of just get relegated, relegated to complementary roles, I think, in the NFL.

So that's, that's more of where I see it. I think maybe early in the year, like you'll see more of them, but then as the year goes on, Brees will probably just take over. I don't know what happened to your voice in the last three minutes, but you've morphed into like a 50-year-old Denny's hostess. I meant, sorry. Who smokes 10 packs of cigarettes a day. I tried to mute it the last time when I cleared my throat.

Hopefully we have people editing this or else people listening this. You're going to be like, good Lord, man. Yeah, my voice is going out right now. It's a little froggy. This tends to happen to me. I don't know why. I don't, I guess I don't talk enough in my real life. and I start to lose my voice if I talk for more than 20 minutes at a time.

So apologies for all the coughing and hacking and whatnot. 60-year-old Denny's hostess who smokes 10 packs of cigarettes. Hey, kids, how we doing? Right this way. I sound like the sister on The Simpsons, the Marjorie sister. I forget what her name is. The twins. Yeah, yeah.

Oh, God, Alec Pierce. All right. Kenneth Walker. Is this a good landing spot? Is this a bad landing spot? I mean, Chris Carson. I see it as sort of neutral. In a committee, right. Yeah. I don't know. Everybody was really down on it. Like, oh, God, this is the worst possible thing. I kind of saw it as neutral. I didn't see it as like, oh, this is super exciting. You know, this isn't like, oh, we landed with the chiefs. It's going to be amazing, although we've made that mistake before.

You know, I kind of just saw it as like, oh, yeah, that makes sense. since the Seahawks want to run the ball, they want to make him a foundational piece of their offense. Like, that can't be a bad thing. I think there are a lot of question marks. And I think that's part of the reason people are like all over the place on this in terms of landing spot. You know, some people are like, oh, let's move him down to 10th overall in rookie drafts or 12th overall. A lot of people are still picking him third, fourth. And I'm more of the third, fourth like group.

I'm betting on, sorry, had to cough there. I'm betting on the upside with him, but I think, like, just in general, you know, there's a lot of question marks. Number one, is he going to catch passes? Number two, who is he going to, how much volume is he going to get in this offense? Because, of course, they just re-signed shot Penny, who looked awesome at the end of last year. That's a big variable, you know, that you have to kind of take into account. But, like, I tend to be more on the side where I wouldn't worry a whole lot about Penny. I don't, I'm really not worried about Chris Carson right now based on everything.

it kind of seems like he's not really going to be able to play. Like they don't know if he's going to be able to take hits still. So I'm sort of on the side where I'm like, I don't really see Chris Carson being in the picture as unfortunate as that is. I don't know for sure, but that's just where I'm leaning. And then I think Penny's on a one-year deal. So you're probably going to see a similar situation to like Javante Williams.

And maybe that pushes you down. Maybe that is like so some people might look at that as like an opportunity to like get good value. but like I wouldn't be surprising if it wouldn't be surprising if it was sort of like a javanti williams melvin gordon situation in year one hopefully not in year two but there's always a possibility year two it bleeds into year too also but like long term you know he's going to a team that wants to run the ball a ton and i think they'll give him plenty of volume um and again the question is is what what it always was and what it was before the draft started how much is he going to be involved in the passing game i do think i tend to think you know

So CX talked about it in the post-draft presser. They want him to be a part of the passing game. So I think that's important. They said something like he's like severely underutilized in the passing game in college. So that to me like says, oh, they're acknowledging that like he doesn't have that on his like resume, but they're going to be getting him involved in in the passing game in Seattle. And then the other thing that makes it tough. And I'm not just trying to sit on the fence here, but like all the all the really hot takes about like how valuable. Walker will be in the passing game.

A lot of that is contingent on the CX history with Russell Wilson at quarterback. Russell Wilson is like the worst passer to running backs I've ever seen. Like he can't throw in running backs. He is literally the worst screen pass thrower I've ever seen in my life. They can't run a fucking screen to save their life with him at quarterback. And then as soon as Gino Smith comes in, I remember this last year. Like all of a sudden their screen game started humming as soon as Russell went out. he just like for whatever reason it's like someone who's like really bad at in bounds passing in basketball like he just can't do it like russell wilson just couldn't throw it over defensive end or whatever like trying to set up this screen he was the worst screen pass throw i've ever seen for all his like all his brilliant throwing down the field like he sucked at like throwing to a running back so i think that is another variable that you can't like discount and sort of have to like leave up in the air like we're talking about the ceox history of you know running back uh you know

like target share or whatever but this is with russell wilson and they have a new quarterback now so and we don't know who the quarterback is yet um so like i i i think like all the people like citing you know seahawks like running back rush or running back target share um the fact that russell like they haven't passed their running backs that much in the past like that's sort of moot at this point there's a new quarterback quarterback um quarterback um quarterback's target running backs at much different rates, right? And so to me, I'm like not really, it's not that I'm ignoring it, but like I can't look at the Seahawks history of like running backs in the past game as any sort of, you know, predictor of what's going to happen going forward. So after Hall and Walker, is there a running

back you're especially excited about James Cook, Rashad White, Damien Pierce, Brian Robinson, Isaiah Spiller? in terms of like being really excited about them no not really i think to me and that's another reason why i've got walker so much higher than a lot of people will in their rookie draft rankings because i think there's a pretty massive tear drop after walker and breese and then you can kind of start talking about like he said the james cooks um moshad whites damien pierce um with james cook, I think he's very intriguing and there's a lot of potential there, but I think there's some logic jumps that you have to make to be super, super excited about him in terms

of like, he's volume. I just like don't know if they're going to have a heavy volume for him. And this is the exact opposite of what we're talking about with the Seahawks and stuff. It's like, we do have an established sort of track record with what the bills have done in terms of like involving their running backs in the passing game. The fact that Josh Allen is there and will be there for the long term and the fact that he tends to take off running rather than dump it off and heavily involved these running backs in the passing game is a little bit concerning to me. Ultimately, though, I'm pretty

still, I'm pretty excited about Cook. Like, I think that the things that they can do in terms of lining up in the slot and utilizing him as sort of a de facto receiver at times is super interesting. And they've sort of hinted at that. But I think there is a little bit of, there's still a lot of uncertainty as to like exactly how much volume he's going to get in that offense. And so that's where my main worry is. And that's why I wouldn't rank him above walkers because I know that Walker's going to get volume. I just don't know about Cook, like, exactly how much he's going to get. There's a ceiling play where he's like the new Alvin Camara. But also there's like a floor thing where I think you've mentioned this. It's like where he's sort

of like in the same role as J. G. A. Davin, or not Jake Advin's a J.D. McKissick, where, you know, he's like a good pass catcher. Utilize him all over field. Sort of like a mismatch creator. But like you're just not, there's no reliable like volume there. We can and week out. So that's kind of my worry with the guy like Cook who again has a lot of upside. I'm ranking him probably much higher than you are even still and I'm still kind of like a little bit concerned about it. I think I've got him in the first round. Let me look. Let me pull my rankings here. I've got him. Now I've got him 14th overall in Superflex Titan premium, but I've seen him go in the first round, seeing people that think he should go above Walker in rookie drafts, which I just think is

I just can't get on board with that. Maybe I'll end up wrong. that, but I just can't see it. Yeah. So everyone knows my preferred running back strategy on bell cow or bust. And Breeze Hall is a bell cow. I'll take him 101. Only guaranteed bell cow. And then Walker, I'm optimistic. I'm cautiously optimistic, but probably year one. It's going to be a committee with Rashad Penny at least. And then after that, I kind of want to fade every single running back. James Cook. Yeah, I see a JD McKen. type. That's kind of what they alluded to in their post-draft presser. So I'm just never going to draft that, certainly not at the tail end of round one, early round two. Rashad White, I mean,

I really like the talent. I like the Belcow upside. The team alluded to basically that. But I mean, Leonard Fernette is there. I don't see him doing much this year. I think he's a player that's going to be cheaper this time next year than he is right now. Damien Pierce, I mean, he was drafted day three in that sort of like special teams role not guaranteed to do much of anything else um plus it doesn't have the draw capital it's like the new england philosophy too where they're probably going to take like a running back every year and it's just going to be like it's just going to be frustrated i'm the same way though like with pierce like i loved loved pierce coming into the draft him falling to day three is worrisome and you get the i think the houston philosophy is a little bit more

I mean, look at the Patriots took two running backs this year. It's like as if it wasn't like confusing and annoying enough, now they have two more guys in that group. So it wouldn't surprise me whatsoever if that's the same style of approach that Houston takes and like a fourth round pick is is not really, you know, they're not going to be, they're not going to be committed to this guy unless he turns into like Marchant Lynch in year one. Yeah, the one thing I'll say is he was drafted as like the RB5. So he was like the second pick off the board on day three. So it wasn't Michael Carter? I think Michael Carter was like one of the first few picks on day three too. So there's all these people like, oh, does it make that big of a difference if it's three or four picks?

Like who knows? Maybe not. Yeah, I don't know. And then, oh, we didn't talk about your guy. Oh, I'll just say really quick, Brian Robinson like him. He's going to be a clear member of a committee this year. he's going to get legit playing time. Isaiah Spiller, I didn't like him pre-draft.

I don't like him post-draft. But let's talk about your guy. The industry is still sleeping on RB 11. Tyrian Davis Price. Yeah, Tyrion. Yeah, I liked him. I was telling you about him all throughout the pre-draft process. I was like, man, we got to get this guy in rookie drafts.

And then it just didn't really end up working out in most of them. Was that because of me? Did I just, I just. No, it was. It was partly because he just didn't, well, number one, he, like, didn't have a good analytical, like, profile. So it was more just, like, me wanting to take stabs at this guy that I think looked good on tape and, you know, is explosive. And, but we ended up mostly just going with better analytical guys, which is, it turned out fine. Like, it actually worked out well for us.

Like, we got a lot of Thornton in, like, fourth rounds. But I really wish I'd been taken Tarian Davis Price in, like, every single fourth round. he was there and he's still there on like waivers and like almost all of our leagues too. So because I think teams saw a guy who is number one like a big like the BMI is there. He's like big physical. He ran like a 448. So the explosion is there. He gets down hill.

He breaks tackles. He runs hard. You know, he he's a product of a system that kind of fell apart in at LSU. But he was a former big time recruit. Like the NFL sees all these things and they like they see like a starter, I think. a potential for a starter. And of course, he falls into another one of the most annoying situations in fantasy football in San Francisco, so you didn't ever really know.

But what we do know about San Francisco is they're successful at running the football, and they like to run the football. And Shanahan is good at drawing up schemes to run the football and create openings for these running backs to, like, be productive. They turn a six-round pick last year into, like, in a thousand-plus-yard rush or whatever. Did Elijah Moore or Mitchell run for a thousand-plus yards? whatever it was he had really good volume um and so there's this idea here that price could be the next guy and and we're already hearing about Elijah Mitchell having like a knee scope this

off season like he's not very big so there's always that concern like you know the the durability going forward um and yeah so like I love this guy a tie davis price before the draft and I'm kicking myself for not yet more of him because he was a third round pick for a team that loves to run the football um I just I still think there's a shit ton of variance with him And he could turn into like just the next trade sermon where he like never sees the field, which would suck. But I do think he's worth gambling on now. And I'm seeing him going second rounds now.

So of rookie drafts. So, you know, obviously it took a huge value bump after the draft. And I think, you know, he could be a really, really interesting player this year. I'm seeing him pick 30, RB11 by ADP, which I think is just stupid. He should be a lot higher than that. Yeah, so Tyrion Davis Price currently picked 30, RB11 by ADP, which I think is way too low. I draft him quite a bit higher. At the end of the day, running back drafted RB5.

And you listen to that post-draft presser, and it's pretty clear that Calh Shannon seems to think Traceerman is super mega dust. Yeah, what did he say about him? I think it's just more that he like didn't even mention him and he was just like yeah we'll have not even in the picture compete with Elijah Mitchell yeah who by the way didn't have a thousand Russian yards but was on pace for just barely under 1500 Russian yards oh wow 963 in 11 games got you and yeah so uh one more player I guess I'll ask you about what about where do you where do you stand on john mechie versus david bell versus wondale robinson we talked a little bit about wandel earlier but i felt like he left some of you on the

table yeah uh i've got mechie above bell and wondale i've got it mechie bell pierce robinson right now and i mean i can i could be talked out of that i think that i don't feel like strong passion about any of those guys in terms of like where i'm going to rank either of them i think with bell like you love the landing spot he can come in and potentially be like a slot receiver for them like the next jar of slandry obviously bell had incredible production um just not very fast which is you know again like in the same sort of uh um landry like profile um and then of course with with sean watson there like their offense has a chance to be completely different and much more effective through the air.

So I like that landing spot, but I'm still, you know, just kind of going with my pre-draft, like preference of METCHI. Like I think just METCHI in fantasy is going to be kind of like used all over the field. He's going to be, I think, hoovering up targets over the middle of the field.

He does some run after the catch. He's pretty athletic. He's not like super athletic, but he's pretty athletic, shifty. I don't know. I just think he's a better all-around prospect player. And I just think he has,

better opportunity to go in there in Houston and be like, you know, basically they're like number two guy or whatever behind cooks. And, um, but that, of course, is complicated by the fact he's coming off in ACL. So, um, that might not be right away. But like in the long term, I just kind of like his prospects there. I do like Bell. I do worry that, um, there's this chance. He kind of just goes the way of Tyler Johnson in Tampa Bay where he's like super like super like top tier production. but like for whatever reason just not athletic enough to separate kind of deal like I'm worried I'm a little bit worried bell is going to go that route but I do think everything else about him is super encouraging like the fact the NFL took him in the third round you know is clearly a huge advantage over a guy like Tyler Johnson who I believe fell the fourth and then his situation is just better like he has a better chance of getting on the field right away like Johnson was stuck behind and Godwin Evans, multiple other guys, whereas Bell is going to be competing with guys like Anthony Schwartz

and Donovan People's Jones and some random other dudes. So I think he's looking better right now. But that was my initial fear, like pre-draft. And so we'll see kind of how that works. And then, yeah. So I do like Munchy, though. I think Metchy's kind of underrated. He kind of is like the forgotten guy in this class a little bit,

not only because he got hurt and didn't do anything in the combine. and kind of basically fell by the wayside, but just, you know, he's on a team with, you know, better, higher producing, like superstar type guys, but I always felt like he's just really, really solid player, if that makes any sense. And so, and he has a pretty complete skill set. Yeah, I think with a lot of these players, I'm seeing just take luck. Like Isaiah Spiller, David Bell, I mean, David Bell was, what, wide receiver, 17 off the board, and he's currently wide receiver 11 by Dynasty ADP. Like that just doesn't make any sense to me.

He went in between Jalen Tolbert and Danny Gray, but he's like four picks above Tolbert, like 10 picks above Danny Gray. But I'm optimistic with him just because what I basically said in my pre-draft analysis was super red flag levels of athleticism. But athleticism is a little overrated at the wide receiver position and a lot overrated when it comes to slot wide receivers. And so Andrew Berry, the GM of the Browns was like, yeah, well, we see him as a slot wide receiver. We think, you know, the lack of speed doesn't really matter as much as the route running is valuable and important.

And so it just seems like they have a clear vision for him. He could slide right into that Jarvis Landry slot rule. and the landing spot is good. And with him, it's almost like, I expected him to fall in the draft due to athleticism, but to land with a team that's like, well, we don't care about it because we're making him a slot-wide receiver is really important and valuable. Yeah, that's like ideal. That's, that was like the ideal landing spot for him. So I'm probably a little too low on him, to be honest.

But yeah, those are great points. I'm, yeah, I mean, his ADP right now is a little silly in my mind too high. Shouldn't be in between Metchy and Robinson, two guys I really like. Was, is there anyone else you wanted to talk about, Danny? Any potential day three guys you think people are sleeping on? Well, my favorite guy to try and get in the third or early fourth round in rookie drafts right now is Khalil Shakur from Buffalo, who I was really high on prior to the draft. he fell much further, though, than I was hoping and thinking he would. I think, number one, he had short arms, so that might be, he might have been off some teams' boards because of, like, arm length, you know, benchmarks or whatever.

And so maybe that was part of the reason he fell. Just, you know, coming from Boise State, maybe teams just weren't as high on him. But I think the landing spot, like Bell, the landing spot is, like, perfect because he can come in to Buffalo and compete to be a slot receiver from, like, year one. and he doesn't have much long-term, like, competition there either. Like, obviously with McKenzie, I think is on a two-year deal, but it's like nothing in terms of money. And then Beasley's gone. I think Jameson Crowder's on a one-year deal. So there's a chance here that, like, that he comes in and Shakir comes in and is just like the slot receiver for the bills, like, long-term.

And we've seen, like, how that's been a pretty productive spot for them, obviously, with Beasley over the last couple years. and I think he has more he has like a more complete skill set like more yak ability more versatility he's just I think better than than Beasley and so I kind of just like the upside there

he's just a guy that I've been sort of trying to yeah he's one of my favorite sleepers here but like falling to the fifth round or fourth round whatever it was is definitely a huge red flag so it kind of does worry me a little bit but let me see

where did he go I think he went in the fourth Fifth? Fifth? Yeah, fifth. I was kind of comparing him a little bit stylistically to Amon Rae St. Brown before the draft. And then he fell into two.

Yeah, and Alman Rae St. Brown fell, obviously into the fourth round. And that's turning out to look like a stupid move by the NFL, letting him fall that far. So that was kind of like my comp for Shakir is just like a good route runner, yards off the catch, tough guy, has some obvious physical limitations in terms of of his length, but overall it's just a baller who I think could be a good pro. Love it. All right. Last question.

And then we're out, Danny. What are we doing with Justin Ross? Where are we at? Fourth round rookie pick, I think, is worth. I think he's worth a flyer at this point still. You know, obviously, like we went into the draft, I think, with eyes wide open. I ranked him in my top 100, but basically it was like, this is completely contingent upon medicals.

And there are going to be some teams. that just don't have him on their board because he had the spinal issue that he had surgery on. There's always the risk that could get to lead to something really bad. Obviously, if he took a big hit. And so I think some teams are probably worried about that. He had a foot stress, a stress fracture in his foot that kept him from, I think, playing at his highest level this last season. So his stats weren't very strong. The offense wasn't very good.

And then he didn't test very well because I think in a large part, because of the stress fracture on his foot. So a lot of stuff was working against him, even though what we saw from him in 2019 as a true freshman was really, really exciting and really intriguing. So to me, he is a huge boom or bust guy. Like he might not even land with team, honestly. Like, I know he's with the Chiefs right now.

He might not make it out of camp. He may never end up playing in the NFL. Like, there's this, this is in the realm of possibilities. Or he could look like the biggest steal in the fourth round by far. You know, I love the landing spot. The landing spot is perfect. So hopefully he can he can show kind of like what he has, but I do think it is, it's a swing for the fences type pick in the fourth round. Go for it. Might as well. It's like a lottery ticket type

type of thing. He could turn out, but obviously not looking great right now. Yeah, I just took him 312 in my latest draft. You're in this draft, Danny. And I don't know, I had this whole monologue in my head about why Justin Ross is the ultimate upside wins championships. pick. But then I saw that Sean Siegel traded the 410 and a 2024 round one to move up to 401. So a future round one to move up just nine spots in round four. And he took Ty Chandler. And then it broke my brain. And my brain is already, my brain is already broken because I am quitting nicotine and caffeine simultaneously, full on cold tariff. turkey. So if I was a moron for this show, it is it is brain fog related to that. But Danny Kelly,

luckily the great genius was was was was not a moron. He brought the goods. He, he bailed me out. Danny, thank you for all the all the terrible hacking and coughing and broke there. Seriously. I know it's not great. But yeah, appreciate that. Where can the folks at home find you. The ringer fantasy football show is back in action now. It's going to, we're going to take a little bit of a hiatus after this week. But yeah,

check that out for the offseason. And then, yeah, check out the ringer fantasy football draft guide, which is coming out very soon. The ringer fan is, or the ringer NFL draft guide is up. You can see my top 100 there with the full scattering reports for everyone.

I'm going to have a top 60 dynasty rankings coming up this week sometime. And yeah, I think that's everything. Danny B. Kelly on Twitter. Beautiful. Thank you, Danny. Thanks, Scott. See you, see you guys.

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