Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Take Talk Episode 11

Episode Date: October 19, 2022

Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) and Steven O'Rourke (callmesteveo7) preview Week 5 action and bring in Lions beat writer Jeremy Reisman (@DetroitonLion) help fix the Lions defense. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome in to the TikTok podcast. I'm your host, Brett Whitefield, with my usual host, Stephen Arroyk. And today, like every Friday, we have a very special guest. welcome to the show Jeremy Reisman from Pride of Detroit he's on the Lions beat and he's a very good friend of mine which is a common theme amongst our guests well thanks for having me man I like that we we've

reversed roles here right yeah because I've been on your podcast how many times probably close to 20 something like that yeah yeah over the years probably we've been probably doing it together for like five years yeah so I'm going to have to I'm going to have to somehow carry you carry every show on so that's kind of a lot for me to live up to here yeah okay you're the podcast pro man you're like uh Jeremy's got a lot he does a live Twitch stream that's freaking phenomenal he's got his you know pride of Detroit podcast which is freaking phenomenal so yeah you're you're the pro man talk about getting carried here we brought you in for the hard carry you know and in fact we've already had some technical difficulties this morning just to show you

Amateur hour this can be. Throw us on your back, Jeremy. Just start telling me what to do, you know? So today's a cool day because we're starting a new segment well, I shouldn't say every Friday, but probably once a month where we're looking at a team that has an underperforming element

to the team. We're going to bring in a beatwriter that covers the team. And we're basically going to do a little segment called Fixed Team in 30 minutes or less. So Jeremy here is on the lines, beat. The Lions have historically one of the best offenses ever through four weeks and also one of the worst defenses ever through four weeks. So we're to talk to Jeremy today about how do we fix this Lions defense and get them performing better. Jeremy, give me a macro overview.

What's going on? You sure? I can't just talk about the offense. I know that's the fun thing to talk about, right? That's the easy part. Right. Yeah, no, I mean, nothing is working particularly well right now, it's interesting because two weeks into the season, I think right after that Washington game, linebackers, Colvin Shepard's like, who can run on us between the tackles? Like, no one. And then they've just been a historically bad run defense since. But we'll get to that. Like between the tackles, they actually have been kind of okay. But I think a lot of the issue stem with that defensive front right now. That's where they're looking, I think, to make some changes. we've heard Demetrius Taylor an undrafted rookie out of App State is going to get some playing time for the first time this week.

Kind of playing that big defensive end role to maybe free up Aiden Hutchinson a little bit who's been a bit underwhelming, but maybe not all that unexpectedly so given his skill set and what they've asked him to do. He's been playing that big end where he's over the tight end every time, getting double-teamed, I think more than everyone but Nick Bosa or something like that or Joey Bosa. One of the Bosa, which is ironic because they're. that's always the player comparison for Aden rightfully or wrongfully. Big white guys. Big white guys. Big athletic white guys.

Yeah. So, you know, Aaron Glenn's obviously under a lot of heat. Some, rightfully so. I think he was a little predictable last week against Seattle, and they burned him a couple times with checks at the line. But overall, you do have to look at this overall roster and realize, you know, it's not where it needs to be. So I don't know if I'm going to be able to fix it in 30 minutes here,

but there's some things that they can certainly do and that they probably will try to do over the next couple weeks to fix things a little bit. Yeah, so maybe towards the end here, we can talk about maybe some off-season things they should focus on. But for now, you already mentioned Demetri's Taylor getting on the field. He's going to play more of that five, six-tech role, like you said, over the tight end.

Also, for those who don't follow the lines closely, so last year they played a lot more odd fronts, a lot more two-gapping schemes or plays. they weren't really intent on getting to the quarterback that often. This year they've kind of changed their philosophy and it hasn't really worked. And I think that's opened them up to all kinds of issues because, Jeremy, as you know, when you can't get to the quarterback with four guys, you have to either bring more guys or drop more into coverage.

We saw this with Patricia. Right. Three man rushes. That didn't work either. Now they're doing the opposite where they're sending extra, you know, passersers on a lot of place. Steve, you happen to know. what their blitz rate is. It's up there. I think it's number one in the NFL by like a good margin. They are at, wow, and I had it up. They're at 48.6% blitz rate.

That's insane. Sorry, sorry, that's, that's, that's pressure rate on blitzes, which is, which is six in the NFL, which you think it should be more. They're blitzing at 40.9%, which is in the lead, which is in the lead by about 4% over the next closest team. Okay. So they're in first by good margin. So, but when you do that, when you're constantly committing those extra pass rushers, you're, you're depleting your coverage resources. And their coverage unit, as we know, Jeremy, it's not good as it was. Like, you need to be dropping seven in coverage as much as you possibly can. Yes. Yeah, no, no question. I mean, this, this was kind of what they came under fire for under Patricia, right? It's like, not necessarily the blitzing, but like putting your guys out on an island, right? They were, they were one of the highest man coverage. still are. And yeah, now there still are for completely different reasons, but it's same results, right? And Jeff Okuda is doing, you know, his darnest to keep up. And he's been doing a pretty good job. But a kind of mediocre guy like Amano Rourier is just absolutely getting blasted because, I mean, they're putting them in tough positions. And like you said, there's not a ton of options when you're not creating pressure with your front four. But this option is clearly not working. Yeah. And so you mentioned like Aaron Gloub. maybe isn't fully to blame here because there are personnel issues. I can't help but notice that they haven't really invested into that side of the ball via free agency at all. Like they've made no commitments to any players.

It's all been one year deals trying to find values. They found Charles Harris. Anzolone is probably not very good. Mike Hughes isn't really working. So a lot of these just one year darts they're throwing. They're just, you know, you're not. I think expectations got too high in the grand scheme of things. And they weren't really supposed to be that good this year.

But the defense shouldn't have regressed from last year because they did add in Hutchinson. Right. Yeah, that's the key there, right? No one expected the Stevens to be good, but they didn't expect it to take a step back. Like you talk about all your year two players, your Derek Barnes, your Levi-onsorike's, your Aleem McNeils. Like these are guys that they did invest in through the draft last year. And, you know, Alim's doing fine. They love what Alim is doing as a nose tackle slash now he's kind of more of a three-two.

tech. But obviously Derek Barnes barely seeing the field. Levi-Oenzerike has this back injury that might threaten his career at this point. I don't know. We might not see that guy ever strap up for the lines again. And so the draft thing, draft picks haven't worked out and you're right. They've taken a very subtle isn't even the right word. Just a very conservative approach in free agency thus far. Really on both sides, ball, but definitely on defense where you, you know, you're Deshawn Elliott. It's like that's your splash signing. And he's fine. But But yeah, there's no long-term pieces there. So you're just relying on developing your young guys, and it's working with some of them.

You know, like I said, Jeff Okuda, I think has made a nice step this year. But some other guys aren't making that step. And if they're not, well, then you're left kind of where Patricia left this roster, which is not very good. Yeah, when you look at it, it's you have Akuta, you have Aleem, you have Hutch, probably Rodriguez. Yeah. And then if Walker makes a good recovery, you have Walker. Other than that, you're looking for six or seven guys probably to upgrade. And that's something against guys like Charles Harris.

He has a role. He's a good player. I think he's disappointed a little bit this year. Actually, I wanted to ask you that, because you mentioned Demetri's Taylor getting on the field more. That has to come at the expense of somebody. Hutch obviously has played the role he's going to be playing. So that tells me they're either taking Hutch off the field or they're moving Hutch to more of the Charles Harris role, which then would mean it comes at the expense of Harris. So what do you see happening there?

Yeah, I think that latter option is the one that makes the most sense because Charles Harris, coming off a really good year, has just not been quite as effective on that side despite seeing far fewer double teams. So I think they want to free up Aden a little bit. You know, he's done okay. Struggle a little bit in the run. And then, you know, pass rush has just been so because he's been facing all those double teams. But if they can free him up, you know, there's also been talk about three points to ask versus two points. I don't think there's that much to that. I know he was really good standing up at Michigan that last year,

but I don't think the lines have a ton of interest in changing that necessarily. But yeah, freeing him up on that edge where he's not necessarily lined up against a tight end all the time is something that I think they're really excited about. Because, you know, he's getting a ton of snaps. We were talking about that before. But I don't think they want to take him away from him. I think they trust Aiden more so than a lot of people on that defense. and they're just hoping to give him an opportunity to make a difference somewhere else. I mean, the only other times he's really been getting the opportunity to move from that big D.N spot is on third down, right?

When they get into third longs, where they can slide them inside and you can do some damage from in there. Problem is their defense is so bad. They're not getting into a lot of third longs. Not getting into a lot of obvious passing down. So you're just kind of stuck with Aiden in base, and he's just not as effective there. Yeah, that NASCAR package. We were excited about that package in camp. Yeah.

And then you even saw it used a little bit more the first and second week of the season. And then as things have kind of unraveled a little bit, it's like they can't really get there. You know, and losing Kaminsky really stinks too because he was a big part of that. And I think Demetrius Taylor could play a little bit of that role too. For sure. Yeah. Definitely. So quick stat for you, Jeremy.

We talked about how when you can't get home before, you're forced to play man coverage because you're sending blitzers. You're getting more guys rushing the passer. When the lines are in man coverage this year, which is almost 50% of their dropbacks, which is like third or fourth highest amount in the league, they're surrendering a passer rating of 110, roughly. 110 yards per attempt of around eight.

They're getting absolutely torched when they're in man coverage. Not great. I don't know how you fix that component without. Like, it's either like you have to. stop blitzing or they just have to find ways to generate pressure without sending six or seven or eight right there's really there's really

no other solution to it because you can't just let them sit back there and pick you apart I don't think the lines are particularly good in zone either and I think I think that doesn't play like I think Jeff Okuda and Amani Orawari can be good man coverage guys but they need some help over the top and yeah and they just

I mean you saw it in that Minnesota game they did okay amani Amani struggled, but they're not always going to face this, like, I feel like the first four weeks of the season, they've all faced a lot of really good duos of receivers, and that'll finally kind of clear up a little bit this week against

against New England, but, you know, Washington, even Washington, you know, they've got a set of pretty darn good receivers and the Eagles and the Vikings. It's just, it's been tough matchups for those guys, especially if you're going to play so heavy man. It's interesting, because I almost feel like their game plan that they've been sticking with the first four weeks of the season

actually might work kind of well against New England when you got a potential third round, you know, third string rookie quarterback. Okay, send a lot of pressure. Make him his life uncomfortable. And then, you know, go heavy man on what looks to me like a, and I mean, Nelson Al Gore, it's fine, but not a great core in New England. Yeah. If you're comparing Nelson Agalore and like Devante Parker to AJ Brown and Devontas Smith. I mean, there's obviously a clear difference between the two of them, or between the two groups. But I mean, and that's where like, you know, Detroit's playing that heavy man.

And if you look at the teams around them that are playing like just as much man as them, it's the Chargers, New England, Miami, New Orleans. All teams that have, I'll step up in talent in their secondary. And people, and like teams that have run these concepts. more traditionally. And I don't like, there are so many times where I go back and watch the like the All-22 film of them. And the amount of times that they're sending just full house blitz and just leaving all of their, all of their secondary just on man on man, nobody behind them.

Every once in a while, they'll drop like a cover one robber behind him. But like for the most part, it's just like good luck if we don't get home. and like we've said, they're not getting home. Yeah, for sure. And some of that, too, with the getting torsion man is like, you mentioned A.J. Brown and Devonte Smith, but it hasn't stopped there. Like, Washington trouts out three pretty good players, and McCorn and Dotson and Curtis Samuel is playing very well this year.

Then the week after that, they got Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. I mean, all four of the units they've played so far are, I would rank those duos or trios. and my top 10 of wide receiver doos or trios. And this week, they are going to get Parker, Aguilar, Kendrick Bourne, Jacoby Myers. It's kind of a rag tag group. There's some talent there, but none of, no game changers. Right.

None of those guys are game changers. And Bailey Zap doesn't have the arm to defeat them deep, I don't think. I say that now, but maybe I'll throw myself off a bridge on Sunday. But, you know, I can just see him, like, floating up a prayer. you know, 40 yards downfield because that's about all he's got. And then Parker just going up and making a play and then housing it.

I can see that happening, but Jeremy is, I know, you know, you do a good job. When you're on the beat, you kind of sometimes you have to remove fandom. I think one of the things I've appreciated about you is you still get excited about the team at times and you still have fun.

It's, you know, you walk the line really, really well. And so I know you have to be looking at this game against New England, just saying, we cannot have this team lose to a Matt Patricia-led offense. No. Yeah. Yeah.

It means so much more to the fans than I think the team this week. And that's not always true, but it's definitely true this week because it's not only the fact that your defense sucks. It's the fact that you're potentially going to lose to Matt Patricia's offense, who, you know, I don't think we need to rehash everything he did to just bury this. Detroit franchise when they were actually on the up and up. Like those years under Jim Caldway, they were a respectable team.

You know, back-to-back nine and seven seasons. I know that doesn't sound great to, you know, Steelers fans or Patriots fans or whatever, but like they hadn't gone back-to-back winning seasons in 20 years. And he just like completely tore out the foundation, changed the culture in every way that these outdated old NFL coaches

just can't relate to new players anymore with. and yeah and just with all the reports that were coming out of Patriots camp this year where it's just like the offense is a mess no one likes what Matt Pritch is doing if that defense

if that offense comes out and scores 30 on the lines even if the lines win 31 to 30 I'm not sure they're even going to be happy with that because it's I mean you just you just allowed the Seahawks and no respect to Gino Smith because he's balling out to put 48 on you and I think they were averaging like 16 points

a game going in that game. So there needs to be some sort of settling of the waters. And if it can't happen against Matt Patricia and the third string quarterback in his first career start, you know, I won't

say you've hit rock bottom, but I can't imagine there's a lot more to fall. Oh, man. Not even a high pedigree quarterback either. Right. It's like a fourth round tag. I mean, oh gosh. It would be you know, it would be really tough if the Lions gave up 30.

and loss. I mean, if they give up 30 at all, it's going to be crazy. Because Patricia, he really doesn't have any idea what he's doing in New England. I mean, it's, oh my gosh, it would be terrible. So I know you've got to get going here. Before we let you leave, Jeremy, the segment is fixing the lines defense. Yeah. You mentioned shuffling the D-line around a little bit, maybe scaling back their blitzing.

So let's take a look at maybe what they could do in the off season. We know this isn't an overnight rebuild. It is going to take multiple years. What do you think they're going to do? I know it's really hard to say, but do you think they're going to have some money available, right? I believe they're projected, what, top 10 right now in Catspace available? Something like that, yeah.

Yeah. You think they're willing to commit to a player in free agency yet? Are they at that level? You know, it's interesting because General Manager Brad Holmes said that they were in the player acquisition phase finally last year, and then they didn't go out and do much. So I think the answer is yes. I think they'll finally be willing to do it. They have been kind of capstrap for, you know,

know, for what it's worth, you know, even this year they've had to, you know, restructure some, like they had to restructure Michael Brockers contract. And I know they didn't want to do that because there's a zero percent chance he's on the roster next year. But they had to do it to kick, to kick some money down. Like it was just something they had to do. Yeah. So I think when they, when they open up their their checkbook, which I think they will do next year, like, I think the focus has to start on the secondary. They need a corner opposite Jeff Okuda. And Jeff Okuda isn't a certain thing either, right? You know, he's played pretty well through four games here, but we don't know how that's going to look at the end of the season. And I don't know, like, I feel like this

team has put a lot of resources into the defensive line. It just can't stay healthy. Like, we didn't mention Romeo O'Cara, a guy who might be back by the end of the season, but torn Achilles, you never know what that's going to look like out of the other end. They're getting Josh Paskell back to practice this week. He's a second round pick that will fill kind of that John Kaminsky role, but you have to see how he looks, too. So I think, I think, I think, think if you focus kind of your efforts on the secondary here, they need another safety. They might need two more safeties because now you got Tracy Walker dealing with an Achilles. They've had a lot of bad injury luck here with, you know, three guys with torn Achilles in the past 12 months.

Yeah. Like that's ridiculous. And all guys that are major contributors. So I think, I think in an ideal situation, the defensive line just comes together with health, but we know that's not really how it works in the NFL. the times in which you can have everyone on your team fully healthy last usually like a three-week window at most. So they'll probably add some on the defensive front,

but they really need to focus on that back end so that they can just hold up against some of these. Like we talked about all these great wide receiver duos in the NFL. That's just the NFL today, right? There's not a lot of teams that don't have one or two guys in the receiving core that can hurt you. That's a great point. You just got to, you got to, build up your defenses on that end to try to stop them. And you know, I've been a long-time proponent of build the secondary.

You know, I was a huge Okuda guy when he came out. I'm always preaching, taking corners in the first round. Looking ahead at the draft. So they do have two first-round picks next year. Yep. Likely probably to be decently high, at least theirs. I mean, the Rams are faltering a little bit. Maybe that pick could get a little higher too, which is nice.

The second rounder will then probably be pretty high. But we're in a really awkward phase right now where the offense is playing so good. Gough and Ben Johnson seemed to be very sympathico. I saw this coming when they traded for golf. I've been ringing the bell that golf is better than the public perception for a long time. And he's made plenty of mistakes this year. There's no doubt about that. But when things are going, like, I don't know that they're in a situation where they're going to feel like they have to get a quarterback.

It's crazy to say, but I think, I think you're right. And listen, the Lions have been supporting him and been behind him, you know, from the beginning. While every Lions fan was convinced this was, you know, a bridge quarterback, they've been hammering saying, like, no, we believe in this guy. And for a while it felt like that was just them trying to improve morale, right? Because you get traded from the Rams. It's a humiliating, humiliating situation. And to pretend like that's not going to affect you at your job is kind of ignoring. So, you know, it felt like a lot of lip service at first, but you got an offensive coordinator, like you said, that's very much sympathico with him.

You got an offensive line that you've put into a ton of resources. And despite the injuries are doing a pretty darn good job, and you get him some weapons. Or, you know, he just gets more time with a lot of the weapons, even the ones from last year. And it's all working. I'm still of the belief that when you have a very high draft pick and you have an opportunity to get a guy that you think might be an elite guy, because I don't think golf is ever going to be an elite guy. He's going to be a good enough guy. I mean, Rams proved you can at least get to a Super Bowl with him.

But if the lines are in a position to get an elite guy and they truly believe him, he's an elite guy in the draft, I still think you have to go in that direction. But now they have a lot more options. And you'd be hard pressed to find a Lions fan, I think, right now, that would get upset over them going too high defensive picks too. For sure. And I think I'm not even.

even saying that they don't have to look at a quarterback, but maybe they can delay it another year. And when you start to worry maybe, I know they have somewhat job security because they're both on six year contracts, right, Campbell and Holmes. Yep. But you still have to worry a little bit, especially if they do disappoint a little bit this year, and it's like, if you can get two, you know, difference makers on the defensive side of the ball next year in the first round, that's like, that's an attractive option when you see how good the offense is play.

No, we have to see how that sustains. Maybe the offense doesn't sustain it. Right. They were only three week four right now. But man, like you get a, you know, the best corner in the draft at like, say, 10 next year or or another elite pass rusher to put across from Hutch. Now you're cooking with gasoline, right? And then maybe you get the best linebacker in the draft in the 20s somewhere or one of the best. Things change or safety or what, like, things change quickly, you know.

The only other factor that I think, like, if this line's offense can somehow maintain this sort of efficiency and not even like, best overall offense, but, you know, maybe top five, top 10 in a lot of these categories. It's not crazy to believe that Ben Johnson might be a head coaching candidate because we all know young offensive coordinators who are doing a heck of a job, especially people look at Detroit and they see Jared Goff and they see kind of a rag tag group of receivers. They're like, he turned that into a top five offense? Like, he could very well get a head coaching job. And then what does your offense look from there? I don't even know who would step up in that situation and be that guy that Jared Goff would be able to trust.

And so maybe then your offense takes a step back. And then maybe you do consider a quarterback even more. Like I know these are problems that you shouldn't be thinking about in week four of the season because, again, like you said, who knows where the lines offense goes from here. But, you know, if you're general manager, that's got, if, that's got to be in the back of your head, right? And that's been, for sure.

That's been my thought process as I watched this offense continue to go off. It's in the back of my head. I'm just like, we're not going to have Ben Johnson next year. I can pretty much bank on that. And then with like the whole Jared Gough thing, I did see someone make a good point. And I want to preface this by saying that I'm not necessarily saying anybody in the next, in the upcoming draft class is like Mahomes. But someone who made a great point of when Alex Smith got ousted in Kansas City,

they were a top 10 offense. And they brought in Patrick Mahomes. Obviously, I don't think anybody in Kansas City would look back and say, you know what? I think we should have kept Alex Smith. So, like, I understand, and I would be, I can, I can understand both sides of it of, like, keeping Jared Goff going to the defensive side of the ball. But also, if there's a guy that you believe in as a quarterback, like, we all know that in the NFL, you have to, like, you have to go after them. Because otherwise, if you, like, skip out on a quarterback, who knows when the next opportunity, you can draft one. Or, I mean, it seems like more and more veterans become available.

But even that, like, we've seen what's happened with Russell. Wilson and Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz and a few other quarterbacks that have moved on to other teams. It's like there's no guarantee that they're going to produce what they produced when they come to you. Yeah, that's a good call. I like to have Alex Smith. There's a lot of parallels there.

I mean, former first overall picks with a messy ending with the team that drafted them and then potentially finding more success with their second team. I mean, that's a good call. Actually, there's overlaps with their actual style of play. as well, right? You know, Smith hasn't always been the guy willing to throw deep all the time. Golf seems to have lost comp.

Well, although he's throwing a deep a lot this year. Just haven't caught, you know, haven't caught a few of them. But yeah, I like that call, Steve. I know Jeremy has a hard out here. So we do have to, you know, start letting you go. Jeremy actually has to be in Allen Park to cover the lions. So they have practiced this morning and he's got to be a part of that. Yeah.

Well, no, I appreciate you having me. I hope we fixed everything. I think we did a pretty good job. We'll send this over to Aaron Milan. Yeah. I'm sure he'll care. Aaron, please listen. I'm sure he's racking his head right now.

He doesn't seem like a guy who probably sleeps much during the season. I imagine this is not helping. No, but I mean, he did bring up kind of an interesting point this week. Like, he's been through struggles before. Like, as an NFL cornerback, like, you get burned and you have to, to just like kind of weather that mental storm. And I don't know, man, every time I hear him talk in front of a podium, I'm just like, I want to believe in you so bad, man.

Right. And part of me is like, okay, well, that has, like, if he can do that to me, a guy who can objectively see that your defense is trash right now, like, I have to imagine in a group of young defensive players who believe in their own ability, he can get them to believe in themselves quite a bit. And even, you know, even if the team goes one and four into the bi-week, I don't feel like he's the type of person that has a chance of losing the locker and I think, I think that team respects him so much. And he is a tremendous leader, which is why despite, I think, how this season is playing out and maybe may continue to play out on defense,

I still think he's a head coaching candidate. I agree with you. I think this player base, too, they take it personally. Like, when they see people criticizing, Dan or or Aaron Glenn, I think they take that personally. Like, man, we're the cause of this. We have to, we have to rise up to protect our family, basically. Yeah. So, well, awesome, dude. Thank you so much for coming on.

It was, it was a treat. We'll have you again for sure. Yeah, no problem, man. I appreciate you having me on and returning the favor for you. Yes. Tell the people where they can find you. I know Twitter, you're what, at Pride of Detroit? At Pride of Detroit is the site account.

My personal account is at Detroit online, all one word. And yeah, pride of Detroit.com for all your Detroit lines written content. Twitch.tv.tv slash Pride of Detroit for all of our podcast slash video content. And yeah, that's about it. Awesome. Awesome, man. Well, thanks again. And we will talk to you soon, Jeremy.

Sounds good, buddy. Thanks, Jeremy. And let's bid Jeremy a good farewell. What a good person to have on the show, Steve? I love Jeremy. I know. He's so personally. He's so good at what he does.

I mean, like everybody that's listening should go. go follow him, even if you're not a Detroit Lions fan. He's just a very adept at, you know, doing what he does. Yeah, he is. He's, you know, SB Nation and the, the Pride of Detroit site, they kind of started as like a fan site, I think, right? And then he's evolved. He's elevated their credibility so much. It's crazy.

Like, he was one of the first SB Nation beatwriters to get credentialed, full-time credential at a team facility. that's how legit he is. And like we said, they push it. Like, you know, he does a Twitch stream, they have a podcast. Like, they're hitting people from all angles. And it's all good, it's all good content. Like, the people that work over Pride of Detroit. They do a lot of different stuff as far as, even if it's just like fan reaction stuff to, you know, actual film breakdown stuff.

Like, they do it all. I know I've followed them closely ever since, you know, ever since their inception, really. Yeah, and you know, Jeremy's always forward thinking. Like he brought over Eric Schlett from USA Today. Eric's like one of the best football-minded beatwriters out there. Like he knows the game like you and I know the game. Yes. And so that's added an element to the site.

That's just really, really tremendous. And Jeremy's just a smart guy building what they have. He has a slew of really good writers, you know, from Eric to Ryan Matthews to our, Ryan's mostly doing podcasts now. But there's just a bunch of them. They're just really, really good at what they do. So hats off to them. Thanks again, Jeremy.

I appreciate you. But Steve, let's tie a bow on the lines combo. I know we probably didn't get to every little thing we wanted to say because Jeremy was on a hard out. So closing thoughts. Yeah, I just, it feels like it comes down to discipline. Watching back the tape of all of the lines offensive snaps, it just seems that like on every play, there's just that one guy, one or two guys that's just missing their assignment, whether it's the defensive line seemingly, or at least the edges seemingly not

communicating too much. And I said it to Jeremy after the show, but it looks like, or after we let him off it, it looks like that it's two guys trying to go one-on-one against a blocking sled and just trying to do whatever they can to win, but not like keying in on any, you know, any cues of what they need to do to, you know, whether it's keep contain or prevent the quarterback from, you know, escaping out the middle of the pocket. And just in the run game, like I said, it's just guys filling the wrong holes. Like I saw a couple of things where Hutchinson would come off a block and he'd read it wrong. He'd swim to the inside, but it's an

outside, it's an outside zone run. So they're going outside him. So he takes himself out of the play. It's just, it's just miscommunication and just simple mistakes that are kind of of dooming this team. Yeah. And then just not having the guys that you, like, I understand the scheme that they're trying to run, but there's also a level of you have to have the talent to run that type of scheme. And I just don't think we have the back end to be playing man zero concepts with full

out, with all out blitzes. And I don't, I just don't think we have the secondary to be like, okay, go match up man to man, especially when like the blitz isn't. getting home and these guys are getting picked up for sure and some of it boils down to lack of trust so like when when a guy messes up and that trust starts to break down then as a player you start to think okay i'm gonna cheat a little bit this direction just in case right this guy isn't doing his job well now you're way less effective at being able to do your job because you're slightly out of position and then some of it too is just guys trying to be heroes i i think i mentioned it

maybe i didn't actually but just several times this year it Going back to the Philly game, it started where the lines will come out in like this elephant front on a predictable passing situation. So the third and 10. So they'll have elephant front basically meaning you have three defensive linemen on one side of the center and then like a wide nine tech on the other side. The idea is you're going to overload one side. They're not going to be able to block, you know, stop you from getting through all the gaps. And then the wide nine is there for a pretty easy cleanup. Well, in these particular plays, you know, awesome, whether it's awesome Bryant or Charles Harris, they're jumping the inside gap.

up all the time as the wide nine and you can't do it happened in the philly game i think two or three times and it was driving me insane because you have a mobile quarterback like hurts there's nobody outside of the wide nine there there's nobody to contain nobody to come up and make a play you've got akuta or aurari in man coverage on the outside basically yeah or or some type of mirror or match so he's he's following the court uh the wide receiver that's running the route there's literally nobody to contain the quarterback at that point so when you jump that inside gap it gives a mobile guy like hurts or whence we saw it happen against or gino smith this past week it gives those mobile guys a literal green light to just say okay this is an easy first down

right i'm literally going to i mean hurts walked for a couple first downs in that exact scenario yes so and like you said that's just it's a lack of discipline the only other point i had i wanted to get into more was the hutch in the two point versus a three point thing i do think there's something to this. It sounds crazy, but Hutch's game, so a lot of people think because he's this big, freaky athlete dude that, you know, you want him in that three-point stand

so he can generate as much speed and momentum as possible to get to that corner and get that offensive tackle to open the gate. That's not Hutch's game. I may have said this on the last podcast, but he is more of a power player. He wants to get his hands on you. He wants to be physical.

You know, bull rushes to inside counters, speed to power. That's how he wins. He's not. really a guy that's going to win by taking the corner on you. He's not a, you know, his move set just doesn't really dictate. He doesn't have a ton of length. So, you know, that a lot of those outside moves are predicated on really good length and, you know, the ability to disengage that way. That's not how he wins. He doesn't have, like, freaky bend. Yeah, it doesn't have freaky bend either. That's a good point. So I do think the two-point stance allows him to, to play with, you know,

more oomph in power. And I do think it sounds elementary, but I do think going to a two point. You can look at the splits yourself from, you know, Michigan when he was predominantly rushing from a three point stance than making the switch to a full-time two-point player his last year there. It's pretty crazy how much better he got. Now, some of that could be natural development, obviously, but I do think a lot of it is that the two-point stance sets him up to do what he wants to do better.

He's also an instinctual player. Yeah. It sounds ridiculous, but when he's in a two-point stance, his eyes are always up. Right. He can see everything going on around him. He can perceive things a little bit better. When you're in that three-point stance and having to focus on your explosion and exploding out of that stance, I do think that minimizes the brain power that Hutch has.

So I'm not saying he should go two-point full-time even, but I do want to see them mix that in. And I think that will help. And this will be an interesting magic. this week. Over the last two weeks, these are like the two, two of the worst run defenses, and it's two offenses that want to run the ball. I mean, New England is giving up 3.3 yards before contact per carry on in the last two weeks. Lions are at about 1.7 yards before contact in the last two weeks. So it'll be, it feels like this game might come down to who can contain the run. The

lines have shown that they can do it. I mean, they did it at times, but. Well, they have to. That's the bottom line. They have to. They have a chance to take tremendous advantage of a favorable quarterback matchup. Absolutely.

They're not going to get a better quarterback matchup this year. No. So if they want to win this game, they've got to get in predictable passing situations and dominate from that standpoint. 100%. All right. Well, let's move on. We've talked enough lines for the day.

Steve, I want to talk about last night's game, even though I just said I didn't want to. Even though you tweeted out that we weren't going to talk about it. Just some quick thoughts. I don't even, I'm not going to go through the game at all, really. I want to talk about Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos. Yes. You know, I thought this past Sunday, he looked pretty good.

And I was like, oh, Russ is coming alive. Cool. Got it. No, that wasn't the thing. This game was the worst game of his career, I think. He looked awful. It was bad. I mean, I think this was genuinely one of the top three to five worst games I've ever watched in my football career, like in my life.

Yeah. Some of it is Hackett for sure. But then when you see that the last play of the game there, the two-point conversion, Or no, what was it? The fourth and one. Fourth and one. When you see the fourth and one there, and you see Russell just completely miss the read on that play.

The perfectly set up, too. Right. And for those who, you know, haven't spent a time in analyzing that play specifically, they had basically a zone beater on one side, a man beater on the other side. Clearly, they're reading man. That's obvious even me. I've never played quarterback a day in my life.

So for whatever reason, Russ decides he's not going to go with his man-beater. I don't understand how he's a 34-year-old quarterback team. He's been in the league for 12 years. How is this guy making that mistake when you're making $240 million? I just think that Hackett, I don't know what happened, but I feel like Hackett and Russell Wilson are not on the same page. And I think that Hackett is trying, wants Russell Wilson to operate. similarly to how Aaron Rogers operated.

That's not who Russell Wilson is, though. Well, they paid him like it is. I mean, 100% they paid him, but, like, I just don't think that, like, Russell Wilson, his game has never been predicated on being the, like, quick twitch thrower, ball snap out quickly, and we're moving. Like, that's never been Russell Wilson's MO,

but that's what they're trying to get him to be. and I don't know and like they have the weapons around they have the weapons around him the run game looked pretty solid last night I just don't know where this offense goes because between the 20s they're moving the they move the ball well it is just for whatever reason

when they get inside the red zone or they get near the red zone everything falls apart it just completely collapses. Russell Wilson is like it starts rushing reads or their blocking breaks down or he's too quick to escape the pocket. I just don't know where the fix comes in for this team because I feel like the issue is that it's genuinely like a philosophical issue

of who your quarterback is and who you're trying to get your quarterback to be. Yeah, early in the season, I was blaming Hackett for their red zone woes. After that play last night, I'm just, I don't think so, man. Like, I'm watching the play right now while we're live on here. It's as clear as day what the read is. I just don't understand how Russ can't get to it. I mean, it's a perfect pick concept executed so well. Hamler comes wide open.

But the fact that it's clearly, it's clearly, man coverage. There's no chance this is his own. The fact that Russ doesn't even look the man-beater direction is crazy. I can't get over it. It's blowing my mind. Like he was so gung-ho and I'm just getting this ball to Cortland Sutton. I don't care what the coverage is. Yes. And Sutton was probably the best covered player on the play. Yeah, I mean, yeah, the guy was locked, locked on him.

It was Gilmore, right? He was in his hit pocket the whole way. But then, so the point. big point I want to get to is you look at KJ Hamler's reaction afterwards. Man, he, in the back of the end zone, he rips off his helmet, he slams it on the ground, storms off the field. And I have my own thoughts on Russ as a person. I think he's fraud. Like, he's the most non-genuine person in the league.

I just really think that maybe there's a risk that he's losing this locker room. and it's kind of for the Broncos and Broncos fans, it's got to be nerve-wracking. Yeah, I mean, right now through five weeks for them, this, like, is looking to be one of the biggest mistakes of a contract ever. And, I mean, this could, this would and could completely bury the Broncos as a team. Yeah. Also, his interceptions last night were just, like, they were just. What in the world are you doing variety?

Yeah. Just ugly. Oh, my gosh. So bad. It just seems like, I mean, he's just a guy that, like, I think we're seeing it now more than ever that, like, he thrived by operating out of structure. Like, when the play breaks down, that's where Russell Wilson, that's where Russell Wilson wants to be almost. And he's just, he's lost a. step. He seems rushed. It just like, it doesn't seem as smooth as it used to be for him. And I,

like, I, again, I just don't know where the fix comes in for them. I'm genuinely concerned about this team going forward because, like, Russell Wilson, there's, there's no intermediate game for them, it feels like. Like, nothing intermediate. The amount of times he checks down is crazy. Like, it's either he's checking it down or he's going deep. Yeah, his ADOT yesterday was, I believe, near 12, which is pretty up there. Right. I think juxtaposing Matt Ryan, he was, Matt Ryan was probably around six. Yeah, but there's just like no intermediate game for him.

And I don't think he does that because I don't think he's ever really worked in an intermediate game that much. I mean, him and Lockett have had a pretty good connection, but, you know, intermediate historically. So he needs to find that guy he trusts to throw intermediate. Sutton, it seems like, is either getting like a smoke or, you know, some type of short, quick game read or he's getting a deep ball. So, yeah, Russ is eight out of the year is over 10, which is higher than pretty much every starter, not named. you know, there's a few, like Mariotta, Trubisky, Lamar Jackson. But it's up there.

Yeah, I mean, that's what it is. It's just checking it down or it's throwing it deep. There's nothing else. And right now the deep throws aren't working. And so it's all checkdowns. Yep. All right. So moving forward with them, I'm just not, I'm not sure what they do.

I don't think, I just think this team is going to, be bad all year. I'm pretty comfortable saying that now. I don't think they're, I mean, shoot, they just lost to the Raiders, right? And now they lost last night. Yeah. And I mean, their defense is good. Their defense is good. I think they have a great unit. Browning looks great off the edge. Certans, one of the best corners in the NFL. Like, overall, that defense is playing well and looks good. And I think they'll get some wins just from being able to shut down other teams passing game and just kind of mucking it up and they'll win a couple games like they had last night.

But from what, like, from the beginning of the year to where we're at now, the start contrast and the expectations and the potential outcome for this team have drastically changed. And this division looks more clear cut than almost any other division in the NFL right now. just because, I mean, the Chargers health is wanting. The Chiefs look really good and seemed to be taking a step forward. Like right around the time they did last year, the Raiders got their first win, but that was against Denver, who doesn't look good. So it's funny how that, like, that division went from, you know,

five weeks ago we were talking about it as a gauntlet, like just a heavy weights division to now it looks like this could be one of the more clear-cut division. in the NFL. Yes. Let's talk. Those teams play each other this week. Let's talk about that. So it's one of the games we wanted a preview.

Las Vegas, Kansas City. Yep. I would say the Raiders have also been a team that's disappointed by most standards. Absolutely. I thought maybe they would be the third or fourth team in the division, but I still thought they'd be more competitive than they have been. It has not been pretty. Yeah, I thought it was going to be third or fourth.

fourth in a good division with like third and fourth finishing out you know above 500 yep but i know man mohams just look pretty good lately he's destroying man coverage at a pretty good rate um the unfortunate thing is is i don't know how much man coverage he's going to see this week uh i know las vegas is right around middle of the road and yeah they're running like 30-ish percent of snaps and they've been okay in man too. So they're only giving up a pass rating of like 81 in man, which is pretty good. Most teams don't do particularly well in man, actually, believe it or not. Yeah, I'm really curious to see kind of what the game plan is.

Mahomes, when he has to play a lot of those zone heavy teams, he had been kind of struggling. which was pretty apparent, you know, the first few weeks of the season. Patience has been a thing he's really had to work on, right? It's just taking what the defense has given. I felt like he took a massive step forward this past week, which I broke down extensively on the last pod. So he's probably going to see another heavy, heavy dose of zone though this week. And it's going to be another game where he's going to have to just be patient,

take what the defense gives them, and just wait for those opportunities, wait for those 30% of snaps where he's going to be able to get man and get the matchup you wants and then take advantage. Yeah, and Vegas's overall past defense hasn't been anything to write home about. I mean, they're giving up 4.2% completion percentage over expectation, 103 pass rating. Yeah, a lot of that is in zone. So I guess that is the best, that is the bright side for Mahomes, right? Like he's going to face a heavy dose of zone, but the Raiders has been really bad in zone.

Right. Yeah, wow. And yeah, in zone coverage, the Raiders are allowing a completion percentage over expectation of 12.4%. Woo. Which that means, yeah. Which that means they got their, like, teams are finding holes in their zone. And if there's someone that's good at finding, if there's someone that's good that's at scheming routes to get open in zone, it's Andy Reed. Right.

I mean, he'll throw crossing routes and, you know, like crossing sit routes on you all day. just they'll pick you apart over the middle and just continue to find those holes where where they can get some opportunity after the catch and everything. Yeah, I think there's a chance. This is a big game for, obviously, you know, every game is a big game for Kelsey. But I think those running backs, Clyde, McKinnon, Pichetto, the Raiders are forcing checkdowns on like 16% of their zone snaps. So, you know, that's pretty...

Just to funnel into the running backs and let them go. Yep. Maybe they try to get Hardman going on some jet sweeps, stuff like that. But overall, I think Kansas City wins this game pretty easily, Steve. But it should be a game of a lot of firepower. The Chiefs coverage unit themselves has kind of been exposed a little bit this year. Tampa kind of had their way with it. They're giving up a pass rating over 100.

in man coverage, they're getting torched as well. They're giving up a pass rating of 107 in man coverage. In Las Vegas gets Hunter and Fro back. So Derek Carr will have the full stable of weapons. Honestly, the Raiders offense has been, it feels like it's been improving. They've been running the ball a lot better. And I think that Derek Carr is, I think,

still trying to figure out the balance. of getting Adams involved but not forcing the ball to Adams. Yeah. And I think that, you know, especially with the way the running game is working, I think that they could potentially kind of pick this Kansas City defense apart a little bit. Yeah. I think so as well. I think they shouldn't have trouble scoring points.

Just can their defense hold up? I know we knew that, you know, with McDaniels taken over there, Josh McDaniels, that is, that they would try to rely on the run game at times. They'd lean on that heavy. You're starting to see that more. Jacobs had, what, 28 carries this week for like 150 yards against a pretty good defense in the Broncos as well. So if that remains, if that's something they're able to do consistently, that's just going to help Carr even more, especially on those play action throws and getting Adams's, you know, good looks.

I think that's going to be a huge win for them. Kansas City is one of the best defenses against the run. But they also don't face a lot of rushing attempts just because, you know, Kansas City is so good at getting out in front quickly and forcing you to kind of make yourself one-dimensional. And that's where the Raiders could get into trouble. And that's where I think that Carr can find himself in trouble at times is that when their offense goes one-dimensional and Carr has to throw the ball and the defense. knows Carr has to throw the ball, I think that he starts to kind of force the issue a bit. But if they're able to get that run game going and kind of open up that play action pass game

and, you know, keep their offense multiple, that they stand a better chance of staying in this. I just don't know if they'll be able to do that because I don't think their defense is going to be able to hold their own against Kansas City's offense. I feel like Kansas City's just going to pick them apart down the field and just find those holes in the zone and just work it slowly up the field. Honestly, it might be one of those games where I feel like Kansas City has been very good at this is they may not run the ball a ton, but they may do a lot of scheme, short throws and short throws of the running back that essentially become an extension of the

run game, and that's how they could, that's how they might pick apart Las Vegas. Yeah, that will help mitigate some things too. I mean, we've talked even in the preseason about how excited we were for this Raiders passers, but they haven't really stepped up. I mean, they, I mean, they went rank, let's see, in quarterback pressure. And they're down like bottom third. They get pressure on like 28% of dropbacks. It's not terrible.

But it's not great, you know, it's really not great. And they're doing it. They're having to blitz, you know, quite a bit. So, you know, the Kansas City offensive line has played reasonably well. And, you know, we know Mahomes are going to hold the ball longer than most QBs. That's not a big deal. But this is a game where he's not really going to be threatened a whole lot, I don't think. So him being able to be patient and hold the ball might actually serve him very well this game.

Yeah, I think that overall, I think Kansas City kind of runs away with this game. I could see it being close. I could see it being close in the beginning and the Raiders getting one or two. but I just don't think that the Raiders defense can hold up, and that's where the issue is going to be in it. The Raiders can't keep up in a track meet with this team. Right. I do think, like I said, the Raiders should score points.

The question is going to be how many stops can they get on defense? Right. They're going to need at least two or three stops, probably, to try to win this game. It's all about generating pressure. can create pressure with those four guys up front, then, you know, they can change the game a little bit. But they haven't shown they've been able to do that so far this year too much, like you said. Yep. And I think Mahomes continues, you know, playing on a high level. He's going to, you know,

I think he's out of the shell. He's cut loose now. He's a wild man. I think he's, I think he's going to get after it. So, sweet. Let's, let's pivot to another game. I know. you want to take a look at Cincinnati, Baltimore. Yes. What do you got there? With this, this is a Cincinnati defense that I think has been performing above what I had thought they had been doing. And overall just has been kind of keeping this team afloat a little bit. Joe Burrow has come on in the last two weeks, though.

His ADOT has jumped up to 8.7 yards of throw. His wild throw rate is up at 9% the last two weeks. he's you know he's in the lower middle of QBs of catchable ball rate at 79% and is their time to pressure is abysmal it's at about 2.2 seconds so I mean the key for this team is continuing to push the ball down the field like they did last week in the week before and just starting starting to get those big those big play moments that that team is so often predicated on we know and the good and all the also good for Cincinnati is that we all know, and we've talked about enough, that Zach Taylor wants to run the ball. As much as it kills us all to see it, they want to run the ball. And Baltimore's run defense hasn't been great. They're giving up about 4.99 yards per carry. 65% of the runs they face are going over three yards. This could actually be a favorable matchup for Cincinnati and that they can run the ball and that

can start to set up their set up some of their deeper throws if they can get the defense that got to suck in on the run. I mean, Baltimore's past defense has been solid. They've only given up a 5.2% well throw. They have seven interceptions on the year. But I think this is going to come down to can Cincinnati continue to push the ball down the field and can they do it effectively?

My patience for Cincinnati running the ball in this game is going to be next to none. Oh, and they're going to do it. because I think they're going to see an opening. It doesn't matter. The problem, Steve, is when you don't have the offensive line talent to impose your will on another team, I don't care if Baltimore's personnel on the other side of the ball looks favorable. Just stop.

You have Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and a world-class quarterback. Just stop with the run stuff. Like, yeah, sure, let's try it in the beginning, see if there's something there, but my patience is thin. If I'm Zach Taylor, which we all know I'm not, because Joe Mixen wouldn't have had 25 carries for 40 yards last week. I'm bailing on the run early if it's not going well. Because the one thing you don't want to do is get Baltimore a lead. And I think that this, I think that Zach Taylor has it wrong.

Like he's trying to use the run, the early runs to set up the pass. I genuinely think that they should be doing it the opposite way. I think that they should be starting out, going deep, pushing the ball down in the field, force that secondary to start playing back, force teams to respect that deep throw, and then start running it underneath. Nobody, like you said, nobody is scared of the Cincinnati Bengals run offense. Right. What they are afraid of is T. Higgins, Jamar Chase, and Tyler Boyd getting down the field.

Exactly. Exactly. One of the things that they've been doing that's just so weird to me that teams still can't figure this out with the data we have available is like when they go under center, Steve, they're running the ball. When they're in shotgun, Burroughs throwing it. It's like they have to switch that up. They have to provide some sort of like tendency breaker. Exactly. Because that was the issue with that was the issue with New England's offense to start the year.

every time they went under center they were running the ball every time they went into shotgun they were passing the ball like that's about as easy of a key as you can pick up on for a defense oh absolutely on the flip on the flip side since today like i said cincinnati's defense has been playing really well they're only giving up 3.7 yards per carry they have a 53% stuff rate and they're at a negative 5.8% completion percentage over expectation so this is like this is strength strength here because Lamar, I mean, Lamar has 8.5% wild throw, 3.2% completion over, completion percentage over expectation and an 8.7a dot. Like this is two good units going against each other.

And I just worry about Cincinnati's ability to create any pressure because if Lamar can sit back in a clean pocket, from a guy that's been sitting in the pocket more and taking more advantage, of down the field throws, I think it'll come down to if the Cincinnati defense can create pressure on Lamar Jackson or does he have all day to throw? Is he now getting the opportunity to sit back there and decide whether, you know, whether he can unleash a D ball or maybe break loose and run for a first down? I just, I worry about the front seven for Cincinnati and creating pressure. Yeah, it's, it's, I'm only worried because I'm not sure schematic.

how they're going to line up. So so far this year, and their passers just really come on. Like, they're getting pressure on, like 31% of SNAS, which is, I think, 10th in the league.

They blitz a lot, and their time to pressure is really low. It's like 2-25. Yeah. So they're getting to the quarterback quickly when they do get that pressure, and they're doing a good job of scheming the pressure up.

Now, the problem, so, like, in a normal game, I wouldn't be worried about at all. I'd be like, wow, this. And what happens to do with all the blitzing they're doing, they're playing a lot of man coverage similar to the lions. Except their man coverage is holding up.

They're only starting a pass your rating against of like 55. They're also doing a lot of fire zone. So some cover three with some blitzer looks. They're not necessarily committing six and seven guys on every time they're rushing the passer. But they're scheming up the blitz really well. But the problem is Lamar's not a traditional quarterback. And sometimes pressuring him isn't what you want to do. Right, right.

Sometimes you want to just keep him in the pocket and force him to throw the ball. Lamar has taken a big step this year with delivering the ball from the pocket. So I'm really curious to see, is this a game that is going to reestablish some norms that we already knew? Like maybe Lamar struggles from the pocket? Or is this going to be a continuation of things we've seen that have kind of manifested this year, which is Lamar being a pocket passer, not scrambling as much. So I know going into last week, Lamar had, I think, five scramble runs in the first three weeks, which is less than two a game.

That's what you want if you're trying to get a quarterback to be more patient. shouldn't stay in the pocket. I think last week alone he had eight. So that trend broke last week. And that's, that was a get, that's Buffalo being able to get home with four rushers and still have the people and still be able to drop seven guys. That's such a benefit. If Cincinnati is going to need to get, you know, to blitz to get pressure, are they going to commit to that? And then the second question I have for them is, is that something you actually want to do? Right. Maybe you play coverage and, you know, just try to keep Lamar in the pocket. It's got to be scary blitzing him because, yeah, maybe you stop him from throwing the ball, but look out.

If he breaks a tackle or two, he's going to have a lot of room to run. Yeah, I mean, you have to be confident that your blitzers are going to get home and make the tackle. Because the minute that he sidesteps a guy or the minute he, you know, is able to escape the pocket. That's where you start to hold your breath because now all of a sudden, if you, you know, if you're blitzing and it isn't like a man coverage. Now you've got guys with backs to their quarter backs to the quarterback the whole way and Lamar's running free. So, yeah, that's a fear.

I'm sure a fear for all defensive coordinators. And, you know, I think that, I think that Cincinnati is going to have to maintain that. But I just, I just, for me, the Cincinnati offense, needs to push the ball down the field. We need to see a continuation of what they were doing against Miami. Except, again, we don't need 25 carries from Joe Mixon. No. We don't need 10 first down runs from Joe Mixon.

Don't be predictable. Yes. Let's see some tendency breakers, not just on first down, but with the way you're aligning yourself. Don't get under center and then run the ball the first 10 times you're under center. Right. Let's get a tendency breaker.

Let's, let's line up Joe under, under center and maybe do some wide zone play action. Try to hit like Jamar on a deep cross. Like, let's get some tendency breakers going. I need to see that stuff if I'm going to buy back into the Bengals. Baltimore's been pretty consistent in coverage too.

They've, other than the busted coverages, which we talked about the other day. Right. They've been pretty good. So despite those busts, They got, they're six interceptions so far in zone coverage, which is nuts. Yeah.

So they have some ball hawks. They have guys that are able to make plays in the wall. Burrow has struggled at times this year with his ball security. So this could be a fascinating matchup to me. I'm so excited to watch this game. And it's really a battle for that division, right? Yeah. I mean, it's obviously way early in the season.

It's not going to determine who wins the division. But in the end, it could be a difference of a game. This could be it. It's the start to figure out this division, though, because a win for one of these teams puts you kind of ahead of the pack going forward. Yep. Yep. All right. Let's take a look at Pittsburgh Buffalo, because you did just mention Buffalo's pass rush.

We have Teddy Pickett making his first career start. And I don't know what Mike Tom was thinking, Steve. Dude, I genuinely don't know. I thought for sure. When I looked at this schedule, I was like, there is no way Kenny Pickett gets in before the buy, because their games leading up to the buy week were against some of the hardest defenses in the NFL. And here we are. He's getting thrown out against probably one of the, I mean, probably the best unit in the NFL right now.

Or no, sorry. No, they're the best. Would you put San Francisco ahead of them? San Francisco's bad. Maybe just because Bosa is better than anyone the bills have on defense. but the bills from number one to number 20 are good. That's true. In the grand scheme of first career starts, Steve,

there probably isn't a worse situation for Kenny Pickett to step into. No. The bill's defense, let's forget about the bill's offense for a second that can score 50 points in a given moment. He's going against the bill's defense. And look at the bill's defense as a whole, despite dealing with a bit of the injury bug in the secondary,

they have still been the stingiest team in coverage. I just say, it hasn't mattered. They've been able to plug in whoever they want, and there's been little to no drop off in production. Steve, they're allowing a pass rating against of under 65, and it's consistent zone and man. They play a huge dose of man coverage. They play, or I'm sorry, zone coverage.

They play more zone coverage than anybody in the NFL. They do a lot of split safety stuff. 85.6% of dropbacks, they've, They've deployed some type of zone coverage. Here's the crazy thing, Steve. This team is the literal antithesis of the Detroit Lions that we already broke down. If you look at what Buffalo does on defense, they get home with four guys. They get home with four guys often to the point where they have the highest pressure rate in the NFL at 38%.

So they're pressuring quarterbacks on 38% of dropbacks. and they're doing it while blitzing the least in the NFL. Yeah. It's actually crazy. They didn't put a blitz on the books until week two. Right, right. They went a whole game without blitzing, and that was Matthew Stafford.

Think about the hubris there. Like, we're so good. Our front four is so good. We're not even going to blitz Matthew Stafford. It's actually crazy what they're doing. Their quarterback pressures over. expectation is like four and a half percent, which is by far the highest in the league. Right.

Because they're only rushing with four guys. And they just have a tremendous amount of bodies they can throw at you. I mean, it's, you know, we broke it down the other day. They're like five, six deep with the amount of passengers they have that are good. Yeah. I mean, from Vaughn, obviously, to boogie bash him to Jordan Phillips. To the Miami dude, Gregory Rousseau. He's tearing it up.

Yes. Jordan Phillips. I know Ed Oliver's been dinged up, but he's a guy who can get after it as well. It's crazy. And then they have two super athletic linebacks. Matt Milano is probably the best coverage linebacker in the NFL right now. I think that's probably safe to say. Probably.

He's not most linebackers in the NFL when you get a one-on-one matchup with them, you're like, that's an advantage. Matt Milano is not that guy. He is not to be trifled with like that. Tremaine Edmins has stepped up. He's playing the best football of his career. he's that defense's leader and they've done all this

Steve without having their starting secondary for multiple games. Now I know a lot of them, some of them are coming back, they're starting to get healthier again. I think we'll see Trey White soon too, but not this week probably, but we'll see Trey White soon. This Buffalo defense is insanely impressive and Kenny Pickett is basically being thrown

to the lion's den. Yeah. I'm concerned for Pickett. I mean, Pittsburgh's Offensive line has been better than expected. Their time to pressure is at 2.3, about 2.38 seconds, which isn't great, but it's, you know, middle of the road.

I thought they were going to be way worse than this. But I just, I don't know how Kenny Pickett is going to do. Because that is, like, that is a thing. He likes to work the middle, like middle seams, and that's where Milano is going to be sitting, and that's where their safeties are going to be sitting. He's going to need his outside guys to win their matchups, and I just don't trust a Matt Canada scheme to compete against this Buffalo scheme to put Kenny Pickett into an advantageous position to even, you know, make an effort.

Yeah. What's weird is they brought in picket in the middle of last game, right? Right. Which tells you that they had been thinking about this for a little while. Right. My question is, why didn't they just start him last week? You get the Jets. Like you want your quarter, you want to set your quarterback up for success.

Right. Why, if, for you to pull out your starter in the middle of a week four game, you obviously had thought about we're getting close to the time we're going to do the picket thing. Why not give him the whole week to prepare against the Jets?

It's the freaking Jets. I say that a lot on this podcast. The Jets are not good. They're still in a rebuild phase. They've got some things working in their favor. But man, it just seems like it makes so much more sense for Tomlin to give Pickett the week last week,

be the guy, not have to bring him in halfway through a game, and get his first game to be against the Jets. Because now, I mean, he's going against Buffalo, and it's just, it's a bad situation. I'm already not high on Pickett, and I just don't think this starts well for him. And confidence is such a finicky thing, right?

Like, you're doing your quarterback at a service by setting him up like this. And, like, the worst thing you can do is throw your quarterback to the wolves from the standpoint of, like, protection. like if there's one thing that will ruin a young quarterback, it's facing a ton of pressure. I mean,

Joe Burrow has pushed past it. He's like one of the few that has like worked past the early career. insane, like being pressured all the time. Like that's what this team could be facing. Like Kenny Pickett could be under pressure a lot. And that's forcing him to make, you know, forcing him to make throws. And that's where I feel like,

Kenny Pickett likes to try to operate outside of structure, at least he did in college. A lot of like what he liked to do is, you know, getting himself out of the pocket, throwing on the run, moving around. Oh, he's very similar to Trubisky in that regard.

Right. And I just feel like he's going to, like he might start seeing ghosts early. And so he could, I could either see him bailing pockets really fast or, you know, running into sacks i i just it's gonna it's gonna be a tough it's a tough ask for him to go up against this defense for this on his first you know full week of prep against an NFL team yep the

thing that's wild is with with tribusky and picket what those guys do is such like a it's such a a reversal from what Big Ben had been doing in the last couple years. Big Ben led the NFL last year in Time to Throw. Yes. It's basically snap throw, snap throw. I mean, they ran so much quick game screens. And even when they didn't, he was still hitting his checkdowns a lot. So much RPO.

Yes, a lot of RPO. Now, like, Pittsburgh's time to throw this year is like 2.58 seconds, 2.6 seconds, something like that. It's like top 12 in the league. Yeah. So holding the ball against this front is not going to be a good situation for them. So picket is, man. And that's, you know, and this is in a game where Buffalo's offense can get going quickly. And if they fall behind, if they fall behind the sticks here early and they have to start abandoning the run game.

And now you're putting like the entirety of the game. on the Kenny Pickett's back because you're trying to come back or anything like that. Because this is absolutely a situation where you see Pittsburgh's offense starts out. It sputters because, you know, it's, you know, I feel like with a full week of prep and just like knowing you're the starter coming in, there's a little bit more, a little bit more pressure, a little bit more nerves compared to just coming into the second half, you know, relieving the starter and just going and playing. This is more of like a lot of things are going through your head, a lot of processing

things and against the defense like this, I could see a couple, you know, quick three and out series and then Buffalo goes and starts off hot and like Buffalo goes out gets up 14 to nothing. Now all of a sudden you're starting to abandon the running, the run game, which hasn't been good anyways. Naji Harris has not been very good this year. But if you then, you know, potentially completely take it out of the equation and now you're putting it all on Kenny Pickett's back, and you're allowing this Buffalo pass rush to pin their ears back and go. It could get bad. Like we said, it could be ugly for Pickett.

And granted, granted, they weren't all his fault, but he threw three interceptions last week. Yeah. One nice thing for the Pittsburgh defense this week potentially is that they might be without Mink of Fitzpatrick. That could think. What? You mean, wasn't it a tipped pass last week that he caught an interception? And I had everybody, like, I saw a bunch of people who were like, how can you not think that he's a top five safety? I'm good for catching you off guard at least once in episode. So, yeah, Minka is the worst good player in the NFL, probably in NFL history. The perception on how good this guy is cracks me up. I just, I don't. get it. He's routinely out of position, routinely making mistakes. Obviously, I don't think

losing him is a good thing, but it was just kind of funny because I think he's so overrated. It took me a second to process what you said. I was like, wait a minute. You were staring at me like, what? Did I hear what I heard? I mean, like, we, I feel like we would look at, the good thing about making Fitzpatrick is that he finds himself around the ball a lot. Yes, sometimes. And he makes a lot of... testament of him not actually doing its assignment. Right. But he's around some turnover luck, and like those are the plays you see from

defense. A lot of times you don't see play in, play out. Yeah. You see the splash plays. And if there's one thing that Minkin Fitzpatrick is good at, it's splash plays on defense. So, I mean, missing T.J. Watt and then now missing, potentially missing Mickey Fitzpatrick.

that Buffalo could this could be a blowout of epic proportions you just compared T.J. Watt and Minka Fitzpatrick, didn't you? Well, I mean, as far as like your two most impactful players on their defense. If you were going to go, if you were going to go like replacement level. So Minka is replacement level. So then. So that, so you're comparing Watt. an actual good player to a replacement level player.

I think that I would not compare the two of them. T.J. Watt is significantly better at what he does. Okay. One last point on this game before it completely comes off the rails. Buffalo, one of the things they love to do in coverage is they like to rotate those safeties and mess with the pre-snap look and the post-snap look. and they'll show a middle of field open and then they'll close it down after the snap

and vice versa. We know that that alone messes with good quarterbacks. It messes with Brady. It messes with Mahomes. Like, if you really want to like, you know, mess with a good quarterback, do that, do a lot of that. And it will take him a while to figure it out. Kenny Pickett is

a rookie. And he never saw that in college. Most college defenses play quarters. You know, because of the hashes, because of the way you're forced to align in the college game, you don't see a whole lot of MOF changes in the college level. Pickett's mind is going to be blown when he's making these reads. So much, so much to process. And yes, in that alone, if they don't come out with a good game plan where they're trying to get the ball out of his hands quickly,

if they're just dropping him back and expecting him to read Buffalo's really good zone defense, he's going to be holding the ball a little extra long, even if it's a half second. That's just going to give Buffalo's front four even more time to get after him. Could be ugly. Could be ugly. And he's got tiny hands. He's going to fumble.

I mean, genuinely, their best chance is probably deploying the Ben Rathlisberger offense and just saying, like, we're going to be that we're going to have the ball out of our hands before Buffalo can even think about getting to us. And hopefully, you know, we generate enough yak or enough enough. Yeah, just enough yards in the middle of the field and things like that to be able to get the offense going. I don't know. I just don't see a world where Pittsburgh can even start to move the ball against Buffalo. Yeah, it's going to be a long day.

All right, we got one more game we want to talk about before a bounce. And it's probably unexpected for a few reasons. There might be better games on the schedule. But I'm fascinated by this game. You are fascinated by this game. We're going to do Dallas versus the Rams in L.A. this week. Yeah, this starts with Dallas's defense. Dallas, I thought that they were going to regress on defense.

I thought that last year, they had a lot of turnover luck, and they were an opportunistic defense. But if you looked at a lot of the yardage, a lot of the yardage marks and things like that, like it looked like they were in for regression, but they've actually like seemingly taken a step forward where they're not generating as many turnovers, but now they're just stopping teams.

I mean, they have a minus 5.5% completion percentage over expectation. They're only giving up a 6.9 average depth of target. They're generating 7.7% of throws are turnover worthy against them. Tight windows. Tight windows. And that's where in zone, they give up minus 5% completion percentage over expectation where they're going against zone, 5.3 yards per attempt against zone, I believe.

It's just like this team overall is clicking on all cylinders. And it starts with their pass rush. I mean, they're like Micah Parsons and Lawrence and all those guys up front looks so good and so fast and they're generating pressure. I think that Trayvon Diggs is playing smarter. He's been elite against deep balls. I think he's given up one deep catch all year. Yep.

And then that's where you're going against a Rams offense that has just a 6.1 average depth of target. Stafford has had 7.3% turnover worthy throws. They're passing with. over. I mean, like, it's an 8.2% pass rate over expectation. And in theory, they're, like, staffers doing okay. Like, his completion percentage against zone is 10% over expectation, but he's also thrown four interceptions against zone. And I think it's just that their defense or their offense is so, like, it's such in a box. They have nobody that's really pushing down

field. They don't have their, the van Jefferson. They don't have, like an opj they don't have a threat of a guy that can push push a deep and so they're they're being forced to settle with all these Cooper Cups seven yard routes into the teeth of a zone or against man to man and then like I feel like every especially like in the San Francisco game every

drive where they started to move the ball it felt just so painstakingly hard for them to move the ball because all they could do was chip away at it They had like little to no big play potential in their offense. And that's like that's one of the things that Stafford is, you know, big on is that he can nickel and dime you. And then he can take a shot over the top and kind of break you and break your defense. But he hasn't had that over the top throw. And so that's forcing him to continue to like pass into tight windows.

And if there's anything we know about Stafford, it's that he will at some point force a ball. Oh, yeah. And that's what teams are making them do. By making them, like, get six, seven yards of throw, they're forcing Stafford to continue to throw into tight windows. And that's also because of their past blocking has been bad. Some teams are able to only rush four, drop seven, for Stafford to find, be patient, find the hole in the zone.

And there's, I mean, defenses are just banking on the fact that like, okay, we're going to make it, we're going to make and make a mistake at some point because we don't have to worry about anybody deep. We can cheat our safeties up. They can start to, you know, play a little bit of robber technique and jump routes because we're not worried about anybody going over the top on us. Yes. Dallas is, I mean, we know they'll get after you too. They're going to pressure Stafford.

They've pressured teams with better offensive lines. Yes. Already. And so Stafford's going to be under pressure. Here's a crazy stat for you, especially for you fantasy players. In zone coverage this year, Dallas is allowing the fewest points, fewest fantasy points per dropback in zone coverage with a mark of just 0.19. That, my friends, is stingy.

If Stafford has already been on the struggle bus, this is not getting any better for him this week. it's this is really tough one thing i love that dallas does too and this is part of part of dan quins thing he did this in seattle he did this in atlanta he is really good about they play a lot of zone a lot of cover three in fact yeah they do a lot of cover two as well cover two is actually the coverage they run the most which is great that's a different animal but when they're running cover three the way they deploy it with a lot of times they're using press corners in that cover three technique, it starts to look a lot like man. And so sometimes your quarterback isn't sure if you're getting a man look or a zone look. And if you're not being disciplined with, you know,

trying to try to give your quarterback information before the snap with motion and things like that, you're running a risk of getting fried. So I like this matchup. The reason I want to talk about this game, Steve, because I think Dallas continues their Cinderella story and their comeback story when they're down bad, they're down Dak Prescott, down Tyron Smith. I think they're going to win this game. I think the Rams are in real trouble. I think Dallas is going to win this game and Cooper Rush is going to be the hero of Dallas. Yeah. And big thing for, big thing for Dallas is that Cooper Rush is not turning the ball over. Cooper Rush is playing smart. I mean, he, has negative 1.6% completion percentage over expectation.

He's only a completing like 60% of his passes, but he's only throwing like 1% turnover worthy throws. And he's just, he's just operating within the offense. He's not trying to do too much. He's getting pressured here and there, but their time to pressure is still pretty good. It's 2.36 seconds.

And I just think that Cooper Rush is not going to put their team in a position to lose. he's not going to really, you know, elevate them and put him in a position to win. But that's what their defense is for. Their defense is there to completely shut down an offense, especially an offense built up like the Rams is, where they will do, they're going to look to just like force the Rams to, you know, play pitch and catch down the field, possibly run the ball. But even then Dallas has run defense has been good as well. I just like where this Dallas.

defense is setting their offense up to just operate the way it needs to. And I like that Cooper Rush gets C.D. Lamb involved right away. I think I said it last pod. Like four of C.D. Lam's like six best games have come with Cooper Rush at quarterback. Is that from a fantasy standpoint or just in general? A fantasy standpoint. And I think just in general, I mean, it would kind of translate a little bit. But yeah, I just, Cooper Rush doesn't, like, he's the perfect.

he's like the perfect backup quarterback. He just, he doesn't really elevate your team, but you're not sitting there, you're not sitting there worried about how he chops down your playbook. Like he can operate and run everything that Dallas needs to run. And he can run it generally well. Yep, I agree with that. And we've seen,

uh, the Rams do this really dumb way off zone coverage look. Right. It's, it's horrendous. Yeah. So I don't know. They're allowing, in zone coverage,

they're allowing a completion percentage over expectation of 6.3%. Oh my goodness. Yeah, they're giving up a ton of throws underneath. And in a game like this where you know Dallas's defense is probably going to hold up, if you're Dallas, you're okay with that. We'll just take what we give us. I kind of feel like if Dallas can put like 20 to 24 points on the board, they win this game easily.

Oh, yeah. I completely agree. I think, I mean, I bet you Dallas is penciling themselves in for at least one interception. And from there, it's like, okay, that'll generate. Well, let's get points off of that. Let's get three more scores and we're good to go. Because this Rams offense is like, like I said, it just looks painful. Even on, even on, you know, drives where they are going to score touchdowns.

Like, it just looks like it's so hard for them. to move the ball effectively. So are you, you're taking the Cowboys as well? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams score

under 17 points. Which, I, you know, I'm really happy for Matthew Stafford that, you know, he went and got his Super Bowl and now he's giving back to the Lions once more and they're playing terribly and

hopefully that pick goes up for hopefully that pick keeps getting better. But I just like, I don't know, McVeigh and Stafford look, I just think that they're missing an element to their offense that makes it go, and that's the deep threat. And they just don't have anybody that can do it. And now it's, everybody's just able to sit on a lot of these six, seven, eight yard routes that Cooper Cup and Alan Robinson are running.

And honestly, defenses are completely fine. giving up the six-yard throw to Cooper Cup. Right, right. They are. Like, their run offense looks terrible. They're able to, the defense knows they can stop that. They're like, fine, throw it to Cooper Cup, get him six yards, but then we're going to shut you down.

You're not going to do that three times in a row, so here you go. Agreed. All right, let's move on. We're going to wrap the pod there. But before we go, Steve, I have to put you on blast. Oh, boy. You know, you know what this is about. You have to.

We're talking about the Rams. Just think about it. Oh, yeah. Gosh. I've had a couple, too. It's just in the last, self-reflecting back to the beginning of this year. Matt Ryan to the Colt and Alan Robinson on the Rams have been.

What was your actual hot take, though? Tell the people what's your hot take was about Alan Robinson. I thought Alan Robinson could out gain Cooper Cup, and I was horrifically wrong. Horrically wrong. Cooper Cup is actually doing better than he was last year from just a stat standpoint.

It's actually pretty crazy. I mean, because I wasn't quite there with you, but I thought Alan Robinson would be a big weapon for this offense. And it's not looking pretty. The offense, yeah. It's just their entire offense looks lackluster. I don't even know. I can't even begin to assess, like, what's going on with

Alan Robinson. Sometimes it seems like it's effort. Sometimes it seems like it's Stafford just not getting him the ball. Is this always, you know, were we wrong was had Alan Robinson actually regressed while he was in Chicago and he was, you know, he never really was the same person that he was when he was in Jacksonville? I, like, I don't know what it is. but clearly that like everybody we've said it every week about how they need to get them more involved

and they don't and I just I don't know their focus right now I think like I said I genuinely think their focus needs to be about getting a deep threat they need someone to push the push the or push the boundaries of the defense and force them to respect a deep throw well that was supposed to be Robinson right he was just going to do it differently in more of the contested catch variety. But how much better, something to ponder on, how much better would this Rams offense be with Robert Woods right now than Alan Robinson? Yeah.

Probably like a decent amount. Yeah. Because Woods can do a lot more like, Alan Robinson is much more of a static ball catcher, like a static receiver. Robert Woods is much more of a like you can put him, you know, do a bunch of crossers with them. That's not really Alan Robinson's game. Robert Woods, you can do that.

that. I think that. Woods is just a great separator in general. And I mean, I didn't, I didn't think that it would be like this, but how much does this offense miss Van Jefferson? Well, that's a good point, too. And maybe that is some of the deep threat. That's all I keep coming back to is that I, like, did not really, I think that Van

Jefferson was more important to that offense. Even if his production was not always there, he was always running a, like a, a, a, seam route up the middle, like a go route on the seam, a post route. Like he was always pushing, like helping to push the ball down the field. And without that threat, they don't have anybody who's doing that. Right. Right. All right.

Well, let's call it there. I'm hungry. I'm kind of tired. I'm sick. I'm trying to get over being sick. I'm hurt. And I don't want to whine, but, you know, I just, I'm ready to be done. seasons catching up to us.

Yeah, we get the bye weeks next week, though. I actually started filling out the schedule, the charting schedule, and I'm just like rejoicing just because it's less, so much less. I think we have four teams on by next week, so we're getting 14 games instead of 16, but it doesn't sound like a lot, but it is so much easier to charge that. It's just enough to take the edge off. It's like popping a Tylenol for a headache, you know? Right.

Like maybe I'll make it to bed. like before 4 a.m. on Sunday next week. I doubt it. But maybe. Maybe. You can dream, right? The hope is there, okay? All right.

Well, that's going to do it for the Take Talk podcast. Awesome job today, Steve. Thanks to our host or our guest, not our host. What? Thanks again to our guest, Jeremy. It's fun. We'll see you guys Wednesday. So, all right.

I'm Brett Whitefield. It's my host, Stephen Rourke. we are out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, wait, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.