Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Take Talk Episode 16

Episode Date: October 26, 2022

Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) and Steven ORourke (@callmesteveo7) talk about the 5 things we think we know so far in the 2022 season as well as take an in depth look at the coaching landscape league wide. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hello, everyone, and welcome into Take Talk episode 16. I'm Stephen O'Rourke, and as always, I'm with my co-host, Brett Whitefield. And Brett, how are you doing? I'm doing good, man. I'm doing really good.

Bye weeks are, you know, come at a great time because I'm getting a little bit more sleep, which means I'm less cranky and more dialed in than ever. Yeah, I feel like we're full, like, we've hit a groove. We're in the season. Things are moving starting to move smoothly. You just, it's like you're getting into the routine a little bit. It like feels good. But what I wanted to ask you to start off the show this week was because I thought about this

and especially after what had happened in Buffalo just a few weeks back and where they are now. But given what the talent the Tennessee has on their team, should we be talking more about Mike Vrable being like a top three head coach in the NFL? Given his body of work the last couple years and then like what he's done so far this year, I feel like he doesn't get. talked about enough. And I know it's still early, but I think that there's a case to be made that he should be

up there in, like, the top three to five coaches in the NFL, right? Ooh. Okay. Steve's swinging. I knew you wanted to talk Mike Frable this morning, but not, wasn't 100% sure. It was in that

context. That's good. I like that. So, I guess first impression, Steve, is I think there's a few different buckets we have to discuss. Okay, because there's a lot of guys coaching right now that probably have significantly better resumes than Mike Vrable, but that doesn't necessarily mean you would want them over Mike Vrable in this instance. Yes. And then there's a second bucket of who would you actually rather have right now as a head

coach? Right. So let's talk about the first one. I'll throw out a few names Andy Reid significantly better resume obviously he's been a monster for a while he's got a Super Bowl win

he's been to multiple Super Bowls how many straight NFC championship games did he get to with Eagles I think it was four straight right straight and then he's been to a bunch straight with the Chiefs now yeah he's a juggernaut of a coach

probably the best coach in the NFL, I would say. I mean, and definitely probably would pick over of Rable right now. Yes, I agree. I agree. Because, I mean, honestly, Andy Reid's one of the few people that is like a head coach that's shown that he can adapt in multiple eras, which I think is so huge. So, like, yeah, I thought like my, off the top of my head, there were like, like, I said three to five just because like Andy

Reed's up there obviously Belichick is up there probably Tomlin is up there as well I mean but go I mean go ahead with where you're going so Belichick and Tomlin I definitely put them in the bucket of

better resume right Tomlin's never missed the playoffs for God's sake or never had a losing season sorry he missed playoffs but never had a losing season he has a Super Bowl ring was he on the staff in 04 when they won the Super Bowl with with cower? I think he was on the staff, wasn't he? Wasn't he an internal hire?

I thought he came from Minnesota. Okay, yeah, I might be completely off on that, but I was a young and. Anyway, so Tomlin and Bill definitely fall into the better resume. I mean, especially Bill, obviously he's probably the greatest coach ever. Would you rather have any of those guys in Vrable right now? I mean, Belichick is, it's probably, I mean, potentially. Tomlin, maybe, like, not as much, really. I think I'd pick Rabel over Tomlin right now.

I think so, too. I just, I mean, like, they, they're not as balanced as they used to be. I mean, their defense, I feel like has played well, but. And even then, not the greatest. But even in the past, like, couple years, it feels like, I don't know, there's been, like, this underlying, how old I word, that's like an underlying feeling in Pittsburgh that it's close to just, like, falling apart almost the last few years. I 100% agree with that. And so, like, that scares me away with Tomlin, just because it feels like, it just feels like. It just feels like it's one, like one nail away or just one, you know, soft push away from kind of just like crumbling around.

Yeah, here's something that's interesting about both Tomlin and Belichick when it comes to comparing them to Mike Rable is I think you can make the argument there's some overlap with both those guys. So like Tomlin, something I've admired about him as a coach is the way he gets his team to play for him specifically. Right. Not like he's some type of king or something, but like that roster hasn't been awesome in a while. No. They've had strong points. They've had weak points. They've had some really weak points.

Like their offensive line's been terrible for the, what, five, seven years now? Their defense has been way up and down. You know, he's had star players, though, over the years. But what kind of admires me about Talmud is he gets them to overperform, I think. and I think you can for sure say that about Frable. Yeah, I mean, he's in that full, like you said, he's in that fold of coaches. And obviously, he doesn't, like,

he didn't coach with Belichick before getting head coached, did he? No, no, he played for Belichick, obviously. Yeah, I was to say he played for him. His first coaching gig was with the Ohio State Buckeyes, I believe. Okay. Yeah, but I mean, obviously he was in the Belichick on the teams forever. So he kind of has an idea of that full. low and I mean and that's like kind of the model like that's kind of the I mean the model he's

followed after he's not I think that he's probably a good X's and O's coach but that's not where his strength is his strength is in like fine leadership yeah leadership getting motivation to find a common reason to you know quite together win all of that like he I mean that he's one of the best in that I think because every like it seems like especially like this year last year a lot like ever since he's taken over like Tennessee hasn't been incredible like they have like they had right you could argue it's not a good roster period right and they were the number one seat in the afc last year right like every year it feels like it feels like something happens and it's like all right this is where

Tennessee you know this is where Tennessee kind of finally hits their ceiling or you know starts to come back to earth you know like everything's always the talk about how Ryan Tannale's a quarterback Ryan Tannale's okay he's not great but you know here they are again after last year kind of defined the odds getting the number one seed losing a game that losing a game in the playoffs that ultimately they should have won against the Bengals and then then this year after getting blown out by buffalo which i think that everyone kind of put the nail in the coffin for tennessee there because they i mean it was they have they started started o and two and right the second loss being a blowout right and it like it was it was looking

grim but you know here they are a few weeks later and they're above 500 leading the a fc south and they look i mean they kind of look to be i mean they look to be i mean they look to be a completely different team than they were at the beginning of the year, which I think, like, again, with the lack of real superstar talent or, you know, real difference-making talent, I think that, you know, they've kind of shown through and been one of the more consistent teams in the NFL. And not even, like, consistently good in the sense of, from like a statistical standpoint, just good at winning. Sure.

Which at the end of the day is all that matters in the, NFL. So that's where I think him and Belichick have some overlap. Because Belichick, he's not the best roster constructor in the world. He's not, especially now. That is ringing more and more true every year. Yeah. He doesn't implement the best schemes in the world. We know that. Like, just on paper, their schemes are just meh, you know. Right. The Perkins offense, McDaniels ran there for years. It has some strengths, but it's pretty weak overall. Right. It's not some dominant, you know, offensive scheme they run.

And yet inside of a game, Steve, Bill has always had this crazy ability to, inside of that one game, I know how to scheme out your best player. I know how to make in-game adjustments that get my team over the top better than any coach we've ever seen. Obviously, Brady helps cover a multitude of sins. and he's helped propel that. But you still see it. I mean, you still see Belichick doing it today,

even with a lesser roster. Variable has the same qualities where inside of a game, he knows he's making the right calls consistently, minus the 2019 playoff game against the Chiefs, where they had a significant lead in that game, and he got ultra-conservative, which is not Vrable's personality, right?

And then the Chiefs come running back and end up destroying them in that game. But so minus that game, He's always pushed the right buttons. He knows, you know, he's ultra-aggressive inside of their territory, you know, fourth and one, fourth and two, he's going for it. He's keeping the punter on the bench and getting extra points that way. He always knows how to scheme up the right defensive call in that high-pressure moment where his defense might be garbage all game, but he gets that defense to make the play when they need to make the play. Right.

It's kind of, it's a tremendous feat. And so maybe, Steve, maybe that's the way we look at it. Maybe it's not who has the best resume, who would you rather have coaching your team long term? What if we just simply say who for one, if you had one game to be coach, who would you rather have as your head coach? Who would you take right now over Mike Vrable? Maybe Reed, Sean McDermott, probably. Yeah, Andy, Andy Reed probably, Sean McDermott is up. there but at the same like you know at the same time they have great roster construction yeah and so like

i mean i think mcdermit's good he did well before i don't know i still think i'd take vrabel over mcdermott i like it i like that take dable this is take talking that's a take right that's a take honestly dable is up there too i mean it's early it's early for him but like again he's kind of showing the same all of these where it's like, like, I feel like there's, those are just like things you can't really ignore. And it's like one of those where I feel like a lot of times when a coach starts out well, especially a coach that's not coaching, like it'd be different if Dable went and had another, you know, Josh Allen-esque like quarterback and be like, okay, no, you're like, you know,

he constructed a good offense, but he's got crazy, he's got crazy talent there. Like New York is not. they're they're kind of similar to tennessee i don't know but like the and we'll get to it but the whole nflc's in so far has been kind of confusing as far as like what in the world we know but i i still think i'd take vrable over dable but i mean i think i dable i think dable will be in the conversation for something like that come the end of the year it's like assuming, even if they bottomed out, but I don't think they're going to lose 10 games in a row. Okay.

So, hold on. I still, like, so coaches I'd take over Vrable would be Andy Reid for sure for one game. I'd probably, I think I might take Belichick for just a game. If it's just a singular one-off game, I'd probably take Belichick over Vrable, but that's close. All right, let's do this. Hold on. We're going to do a speed round. We're going to get this done in under a minute.

I'm going to say the coach's name. You say yes or no. Yes, meaning I would take them over Mike Vrable. Okay? Ready? We're going alphabetical. Cliff Kingsbury. Nope.

Arthur Smith. Nope. John Harbaugh. Oh, that's a tough one. You're taking John Harbaugh, right? Yeah, I would take John Harbaugh. All right. Sean McDermott.

See, that's a tough one. I think I'd take Vrable over McDermott. Steve Wilkes. No. Matt Iberfluse. No. Zach Taylor. No.

Kevin Savansky. No. Mike McCarthy. Nope. Nathaniel Hackett. Nope. Motor City, Dan Campbell. Nope.

Matt LaFleur. Nope. Lovie Smith. I forgot he was a coach. I know, right. Nope. Frank Reich. Nope.

Doug Peterson. Nope. That one's tough for me, but I think I think Peterson got a bad deal in in Philadelphia. and you're seeing the fruits of his labor already this year. I mean, Peterson's good. I agree, but it's closer than I think that my reaction leads to believe. Okay. Andy Reid.

Yes. Josh McDaniels? No. Brandon's Daly? No. Sean McVeigh. That's a no for me, boss. I'd rather have a Vrabel.

Yeah, I'd say no. Mike McDaniel? No. Kevin O'Connell. No. Bill Belichick. Yes. Dennis Allen?

No. Brian Dable. No right now. Robert Sala. No. Nick Siriani. That's a tough one. But...

That is a tough one. He's kind of in the Daibble framework. We're like insanely impressive resume so far, but it's early. Right. Too early to call it. Yeah, I think I'd still take Vrable. Yeah, Mike Tomlin. I'd take Frabel right now.

Kyle Shanahan. I think I'd still take Vrable over Shanahan. Pete Carroll. At once. His resume is insanely good, but it's tough because he's been... It's funny because this year, like, if you would ask me last year, it would be a definitive no. But if you ask me this year, I'm coming around. Because he's about to Mike Vrable that.

that conference. That and just because it's like, it's like, I mean, they're playing well and part of it is like, okay, how much of this was actually Russell Wilson? I mean, I'd like, the narrative of this, the last couple of Seahawks seasons, I feel like is changing a little bit as far as who's at fault. That couldn't be more true, right? People thought Seahawks were keeping Pete Carroll employed. Right. I'm sorry. What did I say? People were thinking Russell Wilson was keeping Pete Carroll employed. I don't know why I said Seahawks, where maybe Pete Carroll was keeping Russell Wilson employed. Yeah.

So like, it's funny because that one, it has changed. Like, end of last year, I would have been like absolutely not. But now looking at it, it's like, okay, maybe. So what's your formal stance? Yes or no? I'd still say no. Okay. Todd Bulls.

No. Ron Rivera. No to Riverboat, Ron. run. Okay, so we had what four yeses? So I think that's pretty solid. So you're putting variable as a top five coach. I want to note too that none of the Kyle Shanahan McVeigh coaching tree guys that are terrible in-game managers and play callers, you didn't pick any of them, which I wouldn't have either. But I just want to note that because everyone's obsessed with these dudes and they're not good coaches. Anyways. And I mean, to be fair, like this all could, it'll be hopefully not. hilarious when the Titans, like if we look back at this at the end of the year, because the Titans have gone on a run of playing Raiders, Colts, commanders, Colts. But still, I think that there's, I still think that like Tennessee, they don't have that hard of the schedule going forward.

So like I genuinely think that they, I still think that the Jaguars can come through and win this division. But what Vrable has done so far, with the talent that he has on both offense and defense, what he's done so far to even get this team to four wins, especially to get him to four and two above 500, especially after the way the game against Buffalo went. And I mean,

they're honestly like two, like one or two plays away from being five and one right now. Right. Like they, it's not like that giant, that Giants game was a coin flip. Wow. I,

I just looked up Pete Carroll's resume. sorry. Sorry, go ahead. He's been the coach there for 12 years. This is his 13th season. In the 12 years prior to the season, nine playoff births. He's won a division title five times, Super Bowl champion, and he's been to the Super Bowl twice.

That's pretty impressive. The only more impressive resume in that frame is Andy Reed. He's been with the chiefs for, this was his, in nine seasons. And in nine seasons, he's been to the playoffs eight times. times six division titles two a fc championships and obviously a super bowl champion yeah that's pretty wild yeah that's impressive yeah there i mean there are that like it's it's funny as you look as i was looking through like the list of current head coaches and just how there really is only like what eight coaches that you can confidently like believe in and say like you can

can, you know, really put a stamp on and say, like, I believe in this guy to, like, do what he's supposed to do and lead this team. It's pretty, it's kind of pretty jar. It's pretty jarring when you look at it. It for sure is. Like, I say this a lot, but you, you go on Twitter on any given Sunday, you know, 1.30 in the afternoon, two in the afternoon. and every single fan base is complaining about some decision their coach made. Yes. But yet you live in a box where you think your head coach is just the guy making the stupid call on fourth down or your play caller is the one throwing short of the sticks on every third down. It's every single coach in the NFL for the most part outside of a handful of excellent coaches.

Right. It's like a pandemic of awful decision making. So like your favorite coach is, you know, probably made as many bad calls as the next guy. It's just the way it is. And it's funny because like even that we talk about Andy, we talk about Andy Reed and how we were so confidently behind him. And even he, like for years leading up to him having the Kansas City job, that was his biggest. That was like his biggest knock against him was his in-game decision making was sporad. and questionable.

And even then, it still sometimes is. Like, it's popped up before in this run with Kansas City. It's just that, you know, fortunately for him, he's built out an offense and has a quarterback that can mask some of those, like, in-game decisions that may not work out or, you know, they just win. They win so much that, like, those decisions don't necessarily pile up. Because that's what happens. Like, I, and I think that we're kind of getting exposed to it this year a little bit of

just how, you know, how difficult or even it feels like how not prepared a lot of NFL coaches are for, for like some in-game decisions. Right. And the reason, like, the reason we call attention to it so much is that a lot of times we see it with like Brandon Staley. We see it with like Dan Campbell. We see it with some other coaches where they just pile on where it feels like every week there's something.

Fake sharp Brandon Staley. Yes. sharp Brandon Saly. But like with with a lot of coaches it happens. It's just that you know, thankfully for Andy Reed and you know Bill Belichick and these guys, it's it's the thing that winning cures all. Like nobody remembers the mistakes you made from the wins, really. You only remember it from the losses and when you have a team that doesn't lose that often, you don't get criticized as much because I don't think Andy Reid is, this amazing like went from being a suspect game manager in Philadelphia to now he's this

amazing like in game manager and incredible in game decision making I think that he's just built up a good team well you know what helps with in game decision making Steve is having a quarterback with a nuke for an arm well yeah that obviously but also having a lead yes that too you're faced with so many less pressure decisions it's insane right this is part like a lot of these teams that are trying to scrape themselves off the bottom, they don't, most scenarios, they're not playing with the lead. They're having to make some type of comeback. And that's where you see coaches make the worst decisions. Right. It's like because they're forced with what seems like the impossible task of getting their team over the hump. And they think they can do it with,

you know, with their mind. But the reality is, players just need to play better. I'm going to throw a wrench in this whole thing real quick, though, before we wrap the Vrable discussion. All right. Does it cheapen his success at all that he inherited a pretty good team, Steve? I don't know if you're familiar with the Tennessee Titans history, but in 2016, they went 9 and 7, barely missed the playoffs. There were second in the AFC South. In 2017, they repeated as second in the AFC South with a 9 and 7 record and went to the playoffs and won a playoff game against the Andy Reed led chiefs with Mike Malarkey as head coach. they subsequently lost the next round to the New England Patriots,

and Mike Malarkey was fired for being beaten by 21 points in the playoffs. But Mike Malarkey coming off a season with a playoff win. Now, remember, there's franchises that have won less than one playoff game in the last 30 years. Yeah. I'm not going to mention which franchise that is. But there is a franchise that's one less, well, there's actually two. Oh, no, they got over the snide a couple years ago. But anyways, there's a franchise that.

has only won one playoff game in the last 30 years. And the Tennessee Titans fired a coach after winning a playoff game. So Mike Vrable inherited a 9-and-7 team that was capable of beating, you know, a pretty good team in the playoffs. Does that cheap in his success at all to you? In my opinion, no, just because he's maintained, like, they were 9 and 7. He made, not only did he maintain it, he elevated it because, I mean, he got him to the point where they're number one seed they're getting the a fc championship they couldn't get over

that hump but it's you know it's difficult there's only only two teams make the super bowl every year like as much do you have aspirations for it you do need a couple of like lucky bounces you do need just a call like some things to go right no matter what but like i think his ability to maintain it elevate it and then i'm interested to see how the next couple years as they are going to have to start to rework, revamp, recreate this team in a way. I'll be interested to watch and see what's happened, but I don't think it cheapens it because it wasn't just like, they didn't plateau there. Like he didn't get hired and they just stayed the same.

Like he elevated him to, you know, getting to double digit wins, like staying at double digit wins, making the playoffs. I think every year he's been there. and so and like that i think that like the ability to do that and elevate it and you know all of that does it or takes away anything of like cheapening it okay fair enough so you're you're a firm variable supporter i like it i am too i like variable he's my kind of coach he reminds me one of the reasons i really liked dan campbell when the lines hired him and still do by the way i'm not i am not detoured from what's happening um

But it's, I think, the most important skill in any position of, I would say, power or leadership is the ability to lead and motivate other men. Yes. Or women. But in Vrable has that skill. He's tremendous. And then Dan Campbell also, I believe, has that skill. Also, they're both absolutely yoked. Yes.

Jacked. Like, if I was ever in a bar fight with one of those guys, I'd feel entirely confident we would win. So that's a ringing endorsement for me because I like that Vrable's jacked. But all right, let's move on because you want to talk about Vrable as a good coach. I want to shift focus to a coach that I am very confused by. Yeah, who is that? Yeah, Atlanta's Arthur Smith. Now, listen, I, for a while, I kept making excuses.

for Arthur. Why isn't Pitts getting the ball? Why isn't, like, Drake London's production's kind of falling off the cliff. Well, it's hard to get guys to produce when you're only throwing the ball 13 times a game. But back-to-back weeks, by the way, down 21 points also. So, we've

already talked about the propensity of coaches to make terrible in-game decisions. Yes. I'm sorry. So just so the, if the listeners didn't catch the Cincinnati Atlanta game this past week, the Atlanta Falcons were down 21-0 and perhaps the worst game script you could possibly find yourself in.

Yet Atlanta's quarterback, Marcus Mario, had only attempted, what, 13 passes, Steve? Is that the correct number? I got to find this really quick. I'm sorry. I believe it was 13 passes, but that was he also only 13. 19 dropbacks, 13 passes.

Yeah, 13 pass attempts in a game script where you're down 21 points in the first half. Yeah. I can't make that make sense. So I, for a while I was given him the caveat of, well, he has Marcus Mariotas as a quarterback. What is he supposed to do?

Mario dairota is not a guy you want dropping back 40 times a game. Just flat out, no. No. But then the more I thought about it, the more irritated I got, Steve, because I'm like, as you know, if you watch the way the NFL treats coaches, especially first-time coaches, they do not get long leashes. No. And traditionally, you, like, I went back and looked the last 10 years of first-time coaches,

you get two decisions as a regime or as a coaching staff at quarterback before you lose your job if it doesn't work. Some guys get lucky and they get a third one. So I'll say you get two and a half decisions at quarterback. Why in the frick would you then waste one of your two choices at quarterback on Marcus Marioada, a guy you benched in Tennessee because he couldn't sufficiently run your offense with Derek Henry and AJ freaking Brown. Explain this to me.

Yeah, because that's, I mean, like, it was this offense with way better running back and, you know, probably just equally, a ball is equal, maybe less than whatever your view of it of receivers. No, AJ Brown's a top three receiver in the NFL. I love Drake London. He is not that yet. AJ Brown is an absolute game changer. Yeah, but when he was, but when Marriota was, that quarterback. It was, you know, AJ Brown was there.

Yeah, but still, I mean, that's regardless of the point. Like, not only that, but just like, and I understand that, you know, no one, I don't, no one expected Atlanta to, like, come in and blow the doors open this year and win a bunch of games. But at what point do you have to, like, at what point do you have to acknowledge that by trotting this quarterback out, you're like you're actively like hurting the development of younger play like of some of your young superstars well steve this is what i'm saying this is this is the next point is they drafted a miniature marcus mariotta yeah i was so ritter doesn't elevate those guys either you know he'll do some things better than marcus mariotta and he's going to do some things worse

I mean, Ritter is a fantastically smart guy who has a propensity to make plays out of the pocket. But as far as accuracy goes, throw for throw, he's arguably worse than Mariotto, which is like baffling. I have a stat for you. All right. I didn't pull many stats for today. But as you know, we are a data company, fantasy points, data and research. We're the data division. This podcast is the data division of fantasy points.

Marcus Mariotta is the worst QB in the NFL when not throwing on his first read. He has a 50% completion percentage and a negative 21.6% completion rate over expectation. The next closest guy is Trevor Lawrence with a mark of negative 10.5. So the gap there is, I mean, it's bigger than the Red Sea. It's, Steve, it's incredible. And why it's so frustrating because what is the point of Marcus Mariotta if he cannot make things happen out of structure. So a little bit of X's and those talk for you guys too.

In the NFL, well, and even in college, most past concepts have at least two primary reads. There's usually a first read and a secondary read and then a checkdown built in. Most route combinations or most reads have multiple routes in that combination, usually two. Sometimes three. You could have three to one side and then an ISO route on the backside. And then so you determine what your first read is. is based on the pre-snap look that you get and what the defense is showing.

Yep. So with this stat is saying that when Marcus Marriota comes off of his first read, he is the worst quarterback in the NFL by far. The reason you are attracted to a guy like Marcus Mariotta is because of his athleticism, because of his pretty good arm strength. I'm not going to say it's like Mahomesian level or anything, but he's got good arm. Yeah. And yet this guy cannot function out of structure.

when he has to come up of his first read, he literally falls apart. So, but Desmond Ritter maybe helps with that, but he's also going to be bad on his first read throws because he's a very inaccurate passer. So my point being is, I said you maybe, at most,

get two and a half decisions at quarterback. If Mario does one, you could consider Ritter 2, or 0.5 of 1. Yeah. You're hamstrung. You don't have any options at that point. And you just drafted Kyle Pitts

with the fourth overall. pick in 2021. Drake London with the eighth overall pick in 2022 to give this offense weapons and they're not using them. You're throwing the ball 13 times a game. It's embarrassing. And at this point, you're on your way to a losing season. Like this.

But they've already won more games than they should have. Yes. This, this. Yeah, go ahead. Sorry. I'll finish my five over. They're on their way to a losing season. I think.

I don't think like they're playing in a weak division, which doesn't necessarily help them as far as having a losing season. But like you said, the two quarterback decision, I would personally, I would consider Martin. Like if they brought in Ritter this year, I think that's one whole QB decision.

If you let that filter in the next season, I feel it. Now that's what the caveat of like, do they draft like maybe they don't draft a quarterback next year somehow like then that i think that that now extends itself to being two decisions if you start if you were to start ritter over mariot or over maria yeah over maria next year and you left ritter on the bench this whole year and like which leads me to which leads me to asking like at what point do you just take mariotta out and like just ride with ritter and i like i understand

he's a rookie, he's young, he might not be developed. But I just like, you've seen the ceiling with Mario, Mario's attempted less passes this season than Joe Flacco. What about Justin Fields? More than Justin Fields, 14 more attempts than Justin Fields. They're basically the same guy at this point. At this point, yeah, it is. But like less passing attempts than Tua, less passing attempts than

Joe Flacco, like, that's crazy. I mean, he has the second least amount of passing attempts in the NFL for starters with, you know, over 20 attempts, with over 40 attempts, obviously. But I just like at this point, especially since this isn't the year that you were going to contend, like, why not put Ritter in, find out what you have there? I mean, he's a third rounder, so I don't like, you're not anticipating having anything insane, but high-end backup is what you're looking for. Yeah. Yeah.

Because, like, if you can find value in Ritter, okay, dude, you may not be your starter, but you can at least, you know, put them on the bench and have them be a solid career backup or whatever. But, like, I think that this year, especially with the year of quarterback potential there is in the draft. for 2023. Like, I don't know. I feel like you need to, I feel like Arthur Smith needs to get through it. Like needs to have both these decisions made because all of a sudden, like if you get to next year or if you get to the draft really and you,

if you don't know what Ritter is, what happens when there are people within the org or like even Arthur Smith or other people who are now pounding the table for no, we drafted Ritter last year. We're not drafting a quarterback this year. We have other places we have to address. Well, if that has. happens they should all be fired anyways. I know, but it's just like, I don't know, I just feel like

Mario is who he is. He has not changed the narrative on who he is at all. It's, in my opinion, that's where it's like it's time to move on because there's no way Arthur Smith is happy that this is what his offense is. I would have to agree. But it's his own, it's his own it's his own doing i it is if you back up to the off season too steve it was kind of an awkward way it all panned out right so yes they they traded met ryan before the draft right i don't remember but keep talking i'll let you know in a second yeah so they had a top 10 pick in a really bad quarterback class so quarterback wasn't really an option for them at eight i get that okay don't don't force it they should not a force pick it it was before the draft

draft. Before the draft. Okay. When did Watson get traded? Deshawn Watson? That was before the draft too. That was in March. Okay. So they basically went all in on Deshawn Watson. Yeah. And lost that battle. Matt Ryan got offended. They traded him. The correct play this year was not to go after Deshawn Watson. Okay. I don't want to get into the morality of discussion again. But yeah, they shouldn't. have been trying to hitch their wagon of that. It's almost karma that this happened to them. And so, you know, they don't get to Sean. Matt Ryan gets frustrated, maybe a little offended. They move on from the correct decision, though, was always to just ride it with Matt Ryan for another year. Don't eat the dead cat money. And then you move on. You probably have a, you know, you're probably bad again. You have a top, what, 10 pick again this year and a much better QB class. presumably.

Yeah, hopefully. And then, man, and then you go from there. They've, unfortunately, they've already burned a few of their, a few of their QB choice. If they get the next one wrong, Steve, they're done. That's the thing. And there's a lot of people out there who think Smith might not make it through this year, which, again, you shouldn't have hitched your way.

This reminds me of Vic Fangio, Steve, all over again. The difference is Arthur Smith's a lot younger than Vic. But Vic is basically like a 70-year-old man getting his first opportunity as an NFL head coach after coaching in the NFL for 30-plus years. And he decides he's going to stake his entire head coaching career on the backs of Drew Locke and Teddy Bridgewater. What are we doing with a really good roster, by the way? Yes. What are we doing? And then Arthur Smith is basically doing the same thing this year.

Now, he'll probably get another shot elsewhere. But anyways, that's my Arthur Smith rant for the day. I just, this has been driving me absolutely insane. But I mean, it is crazy how much of just the uncertainty of quarterback play and how, you know, at a time there's really, you know, there's only, there's a finite number of NFL starting quarterbacks that can lead you to the playoffs. And it's just like so much of the success of coaching can and does revolve around your, ability to make that decision correctly.

Correct. And delay that decision as long as possible. Yeah. I firmly do that. That's why like the lines riding with golf for two years. I don't hate it as much as I don't think golf is the answer. Delay that decision as long as possible. Build the roster.

Get the culture changed and then drop your quarterback in. But there's all we've talked about it. That's it. But there's also, yeah, there's also like merit to being able to choose the right bridge quarterback. for sure. Because that's part of it. Like not only it's just like finding the quarterback of the future,

but like finding that bridge quarterback to where you can give yourself a chance to get a chance of choosing a rookie or, you know, or whoever trading for, you know, whatever you're coaching your regime decision is to go about quarterback. But like if you think about it like Andy Reid got time because he had a decent bridge quarterback, he had Alex Smith. Like Dan Campbell is getting He's I mean his in game decision is getting picked apart

Week by week not so much this week this week because it's just a different it was different but like so much of His leeway is Well Jared golf is in the answer they still haven't committed to a quarterback like you're giving yourself giving yourself time Like there's just as much there's there's just as much at stake in choosing a bridge quarterback as there is and choosing your future quarterback. Yep. And I'll say this too about the lines. Wherever Frank Reich ends up next year after he's fired, just call that team and say,

hey, just give us all your picks for Jared Gough. And they'll probably do it because Reich apparently loves used parts at quarterback. He does. And Jared Gough is like the perfect. I mean, he fits right into the Reich, like the Reich attempted resurrection. He's like he tries to throw, he's trying to throw these guys in the Lazarus pit every time. Right. Is that a DC comic reference?

It is. It's nice. Rachel Gould. Yes. Rassal Gould. That's right. Reference right there. But that's what he's right.

This what he tries to do is like that's just as, I mean, that's just as much it too of like he's trying to. I mean, I honestly don't really know what Indy's game plan is, long term, short term. That team just got so. so messed up when Andrew Luck retired it's honestly alarming how like how off it's looked like an episode of Looneyton

sense just off kilter it just threw everything off kilter and has led to like mildly calculated but also seemingly like somewhat seemingly panic moves on like

both ends because like I and I get it like they're a team that at the time that Andrew luck retired that was a team that was supposed to take the next step they finally had constructed the roster that or almost constructed the roster that they wanted they were a few pieces away Andrew Luck retires and that's where like it's hard I get it like you can't punt on the team you've built and you like but you don't want to commit yourself to a rookie you know a rookie quarterback especially when I don't like you know the season had already started so you were it was like that was it like you didn't get a chance to go draft a rookie but it's

just like then this is just i mean now we're actually really just filing back to this is another episode into the depths of our like roster construction top yeah because like you can go a bunch of different ways of the quarterback but like just as much as a lot of people all like think about it as drafting a rookie being the like pivotal decision but it is just as much who you put in there before you get to that point as well because if Arthur Smith had hitched his wagon to someone other than Mario, Mariotta or if at this or if like right now he decides to cut and run and go with Ritter I think that he like he loses he doesn't get as much heat there as any like the rest of the season as well.

Yeah. In my opinion, because he's a third rounder. Like, you're not, he was not the future of your team at all. He's, it was more of like a, you know, it was more of an upside play, potential play. You know, like, if he, if he works out great, if he's a backup, great. If it doesn't work out, you could, you could have wasted your third rounder on worse things. It's true to thing.

Desmond Ritter has the perfect makeup to, to be a high-level backup with upside. Now, the upside is he's a toolsy guy. And then the backup part is like he, he's not an accurate enough throw right now to be a consistent start in the NFL. But everything we know about the kid, he's brilliant.

Everyone that knows him says he's brilliant. Incredible work ethic. Yep. He's in the Jalen Hertz work ethic mold. And then he's got the tool, the physical tools you like. Like, I love a backup quarterback that's mobile. I know it's kind of a cliche thing to say, but it gives the opposing defense

a fit because they probably plan for your not super mobile guy, and then your backup comes in and he's, you know, you can open up the offense a little bit with him. He can make things happen with his legs and not necessarily have to rely on, you know, getting through his progressions and, you know, hitting everything with good timing. Right. So Ritter has a chance to be a phenomenal backup quarterback as a third round pick with upside because he could develop. We've seen it a few times now. Guys get, they can get more accurate. It is something that's possible. So I think as he tightens up those mechanics and gets those dialed in, there's a chance he becomes a more accurate throw over the football, which maybe he turns

into a starter one day, but I don't see that day being any time soon. All right, we should move on, though. I want to play a fun game with you really quick. Two fun games. Okay. I like fun. One of them's one of them is really fun just because I have to do this because Chris pulled this hilarious stat because there's a lot of hype about one of these players and deservedly so but he gave me a choice and he said running back A has a 44% success rate 14.7 stuff rate 4.7 yards per attempt from 11 personnel running back B has a 9% success rate a 9% success rate a 9% 19% stuff rate, a 5.4 yards per attempt from 11 personnel. Which one would you rather have?

Now, if you're having trouble following the stats. I was going to say real quick, tell everyone what we mean by success rate. So success rate, we've basically defined it as on a given play. So if it's first and 10, a successful run is getting half of your yards to gain. So first and 10, a five yard run is a successful run play. on second and six, a three-yard run is a successful run play. And then on third and fourth down, it's converting the, you know, the first, basically. So to rewind, running back A has a 35% more or higher success rate.

He gets stuffed 5% less of the time. A stuff is basically a run that goes for zero or one yards. Yep. his yards per attempt is a little lower, but you'll sacrifice that for the higher success rate, right? So who would you pick, Steve, running back A or B? I mean, based off of those statistics alone, you would, I mean, you'd pick running back A.

You're telling, I. So I'd like to congratulate you on picking Latavius Murray over Kenneth Walker the third. I know, I saw this, and it did it. It makes you laugh. It makes you laugh. Kenneth Walker looks amazing, but it is funny how big runs will inflate your opinion of a guy.

And this was just out of 11 personnel, right? Just out of 11 personnel, which has been a majority of his carriers, I believe, both of their carriers, I believe. Probably, yeah, probably, though. Yeah, that's. It's just a funny little stat. It's why running back stats, running backs in general. Running back stats, running backs in general, I don't know where you want. You can go multitude of different ways with this, but.

Like, sometimes, like, running back isn't that important. It's not. Well, it also shows you how important an O-line is, right? Like, success rate isn't necessarily a running back stat at all. No. It's a team stat, really. Right. And we know Kenneth Walker has great vision.

He's got insane bursts. He looks great. I mean, some of the jump cuts and his, like, his ability to peek inside the hole, or, like, yeah, peek inside the whole, faint inside the hole, feign inside the hole and then cut out. His ability to do that, I haven't seen that out of a lot of running backs in my life. He forces defenders to change the angle that they're playing with, and then he exploits it by jumping into a whole, a new hole quickly.

Yes. Also, his jump cut in the open field, Steve, looks like freaking Tyree Kill on a release. Like, he literally jumps horizontally five to six yards at a time and does it while running full speed. It's actually crazy. Yeah. Like, I'm just waiting for his hip to explode in one of those plays. Yeah, I mean, yeah, he's he's good.

He's really good. And he has like, that's, that's where I think like a running back adds value is that at any given moment he's one of those guys where he like he could break a run. Yes. Like at any given moment, any given play, he could break a 70 yard run. Yep. And there's like maybe six running backs in the NFL that you can say that about. Yep. All right.

cool next game i wanted to play i want to steal a bit from the the world famous show around the horn okay i think i told you i was going to give you a a rapid list of five things that i think we know yep but here's the thing steve you might not agree with them so i'm going to do five things i think i know and then you are going to buy or sell those things well all right i like that okay yep so the first item on the list is I think we know who the top three teams are in the league, and it's Buffalo, Philly, and Casey. Oh, that's a huge buy. Huge buy. Okay, cool.

So you're in firm agreement that we have a clear top three and those are it. And Philly's probably the favorite to come out of the NFC easily. Yeah, I, yes. Okay. Casey looks back, by the way. Mahomes is starting to find a rhythm with Martez-Valdos can't. Like, what is this? Dude, those, I mean, two back.

shoulder fade or not fade or go routes to him yeah that looked schemed perfect balls juju see it was like that and that's where i feel juju's never been used like that either steve this is weird to see right Pittsburgh never used him like that like when you have a guy who can't separate that well but he is pretty athletic and he's a big physical frame you would expect him to be able to be proficient on back shoulder balls I'm glad they've decided to do this with him Honestly, it could open up the offense quite a bit. Yeah, finally just trying to find, you know, get value, get good value out of them. Yep.

And then Valde Scaling and Mahomes look like they're, they're jelling right now. And that's been, I feel like that's been in the works. Like, it's been close. You've seen it. It's been close for a few weeks now where like you're just waiting for that. You're waiting for the switch to flip for it all to click. And finally, it's looking like it's starting to. Yeah.

I'm very excited about what I've seen from the Chiefs. I know they recently lost the bills, but even in that game, you saw glimpses, right? And you know, Ju-Ju had 100 yards, Kelsey had 100 yards. And that's just one of those games where, you know, it was a coin flip game. It was week six. It was a great game. And, you know, but like really out of that game, you, like, you were looking for, it's bragging rights. And, you know, obviously keeping.

your season moving, but in the sense of like for both of those teams, you know where they're going to finish. If they say healthy, everyone knows where they're going to finish. Like that game was really just kind of like a quick measuring bar. Where are we at in the middle of the first third of the season? And then, okay, we'll, you know, hopefully see you in the playoffs. Like, I, like, that's a game where unless either team got blown out, I'm not like, I don't really look to that game to, like, draw in, like, a ton of conclusions other than like,

if it's a close game, they both kind of affirm their positions. Agreed. Agreed. But what Kansas City did to the 49ers defense? Oh, dude. Yeah, that's what I was. It's like the 49ers defense was being talked about as like 2,000 Ravens level good. Get out of here with that.

Leading up to this week, I like, there were people that like if you pulled the rights, if you pulled the right stats and some of the EPA stuff. and different things like that. Like you could get to a point where the 49ers this year through up until like this last week, they were on pace right on par with like 2,000 Ravens defense, which is arguably one of the best defenses of all time. Yep. Dude, they dropped 500 and what, 30 yards?

Yeah. Mahomes had over 400 yards passing. Yeah, it was on only like 34. Yeah, he averaged 12 and a half yards per attempt on. Yeah. 34 dropbacks. Anytime you get to put Chad Henny in a ball game, you feel really good about the way that game went. Oh, big time.

Yeah. All right. Next, next item. I think we can confidently say Tyree Kill is still the best wide receiver in football. Yeah, I would buy that. The dude is insane. He is actually incredible. I don't know how else to say it.

I mean, there isn't a single thing in the wide receiver handbook of things you must do or things you could be good at that he isn't a master of. And he's a relatively small guy, which makes it even more impressive. Right. I mean, he's, yeah, he's a game breaker. He completely, he completely breaks everything down. He breaks your defensive responsibilities down. He breaks down your game plan.

he forces you to adjust in ways that I mean a lot of you wouldn't have to do for a lot of teams and it's just like he's I mean he's incredible he's just incredible and pairing him with Jalen Waddle we knew what it would be but I don't even think that everyone I don't even think people had

the idea that it was going to be this good right what's crazy Steve is he leads the NFL in receptions right now and he's doing so with an ADOT of over 11 and a half now 11.5 isn't huge but for a

typically the league leader in receptions is not even close to 11.5 and just for comparative sake the other players near him Cup, Kelsey Diggs, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, they're all way under him. Right. Diggs is actually pretty

close but everyone else is over a yard and a half under him. Michael Pittman has 45 catches, eight out of seven. Like this is, this is absurd to put up that kind of production in volume with such a hi-a-data, which means he is basically running wide open. He's got noodle-armed quarterback throwing the ball, too. So pretty remarkable. But man, his release package is nutty. His route running is nutty. Obviously, you know the raw, pure raw athleticism, the speed, the quickness. All that's great. dude he's also really good on contested catches like how many what is he 5-9 that best 5-10 on a good on a good day i would i bet you he's probably like 5-7 right and he's relatively

thick for his size but he's still not the biggest guy in the world yet he hauls in over 50% of his contested catch or contested targets i mean he's there isn't a single thing you could ask him to really be better at you know yeah no I don't, yeah, not really. I mean, he's top. He's top in the NFL for yards per route run for guys with over 70 routes by a margin. And yards per round is a great stat. There's been so many studies done on what wide receiver metrics matter the most.

Yards per route run is by far the most predictive. Yeah, so it's him at 3.5 yards per route run. And he has 223 routes run this year. the next closest person is Stefan Diggs, who has had a great season as well. Mm-hmm. Has run pretty much the exact same amount of routes, 224. And his yards per route run are 2.9. Holy crap.

Tyree kills at 3.5, the next closest for guys with over 75 routes run this year, which is about the, you know, the threshold. and Stefan Diggs is at 2.9. That's a 0.6 yards per route run difference. And just to give you some even more context, that difference of 0.6 is the same different. That's the differences between 1 and 2.

That's the same difference between Stefan Diggs at 2 and, you know, guys like Travis Kelsey, who is, you know, in the, you know, 20s. Wow. Bro, that's wild. Yeah, that's how crazy Tyree Kill is.

And oh, guess what? Guess who's at number three? I would say Waddle. Jalen Waddle at 2.8 yards per route run. Yeah. Freaky. That's, I mean, the freaky combo. Yeah, it's crazy.

And it just, it opens up your offense. It makes your offense, when you have speed like that, it makes your offense arguably like backup quarterback proof in a sense. Well, that's what they have starting right now. Right. I mean, yeah. To a Ridgewater, Skyler Thompson. All just different levels of the-

Just different levels of backup. Different levels of the same, just like slightly better. But like that's, I mean, but that's the thing is, you know, now you have Mike McDaniel. you could even bring this back to our other conversation where Mike McDaniel has built out an offense that, you know, he didn't necessarily commit to Tua fully. So he doesn't even have a quarterback decision in there. And he gets to continue doing that. I think he's probably going to get to the point where he realizes that Tua isn't the answer. And, you know, hopefully it happens sooner rather than later, but we'll see.

But, I mean, you could drop any quarter. by any college quarterback in here and feel confident that they'll, you know, be able to have some success just because you can work so many route combinations. Tyree Kill gets open so fast. Like, it just, like, this is a good, it's a great way to construct an offense in the NFL is having, now granted, not, you're not going to get two guys that are, you know, world-class speed and route running the way that they are. But, I mean, receivers becoming a much more.

valuable position now than it was like seven to eight years ago like the value if only someone could have predicted this i have i am not shy about taking victory laps in fact steve i had i had the combo of hill and waddle ranked as my top receiver duo in the NFL coming into the season and i think that's you did that's bearing itself out pretty clearly and you know there was some pushback on that from some people. Right. Some people push back on that. I have a really important question for you.

Yeah. So I know a lot has been made about Tua being a left-handed quarterback. Do you think it's possible that teams are going to carry his left-handed when he has to hold a clipboard? It might as long as they don't sit, as long as they don't put the two their starting quarterback and then Tua next to each other in the quarterback room and they're not bumping out. arms because that was always the worst part about sitting next to a left-handed writer was that your elbow and your elbow and be like this constant war for table of like this yeah this war of attrition of who can get the elbow space to like chicken wing it out and write on you know right on your piece of paper so that part might um impinge him a little bit i would expect to show leadership there and defer the writing lane to the starter and that's that's the value you get with two of is you get that type of decision-making and leadership that you might not get from a lot of other quarterbacks.

I'd collect myself here, but I'm good to move on. All right, number three on the list. Is Gino Smith, so I think it's firm to say that Gino Smith is the most unlikely MVP candidate in 30 years. That is forcing me to really. think. Hopefully you've had some coffee already. I'm going to say bye for right now, but I'm going to continue digging for a second. So if you're buying, that means you agree that Gino Smith is an MVP candidate it, albeit a loose one. I mean, I think so. He's not an MVP frontrunner, but if you constructed a ballot of five

names right now, he's on the list, correct? I mean, I think you have to, not only from a statistical standpoint, but also just from the standpoint of their first in their division. First in their division. This team was supposed to be terrible. Gino Smith was being laughed out of the NFL not too long ago. At worst, he's the frontrunner for a comeback player of the year. No question. Yeah, that's what, yeah, that's the worst case scenario.

Yeah, I do think he's the most unlikely potential MVP candidate. I'll even, I'll even lessen the blow there. potential MVP candidate in 30 years. He's still playing out of his mind. He had a couple throws the other day that are just what in the world? Where did this guy come from? What planet is he from? And he's just, I mean, again, he's just played so well.

He's leading the offense. They're scoring a lot of points. He's making everything that was ever said by Russell Wilson beforehand and all of the things that were being sad about, you know, and they are getting insane production out of rookies. Let me preface with that as well. But just like, this is the same receiving core that Russell Wilson was throwing to outside of Noah Fent,

which it's not like- Well, outside of Marquis Goodwin too, man. Come on now. You know, two world beaters. Four catch, 67 yards, and two touchdown, Marquis Goodwin. World-class sprinter beat Tyreek Hill in a foot race, Marquis Goodwin. He's a stud, man.

If Russ had him, the whole world changes. Oh, yeah. You know, it's not like you didn't. It's not like, it's not like Russell Wilson had a 6-4 mutant who can run like a deer, who can run any deep rowdy wants beforehand. So that would have been the difference in the care. But either, like, either way, I think, like, he's, like, he has to be in the conversation. I don't, like you said, I, dad, don't, do not in any world think he can win it unless he went on.

some other worldly tear for a few weeks, but like... With the other three teams falling off. You can't get... I don't think you can get... Especially with the way the NFL. You can't get to four names. For sure, four names, maybe even three names, before you get to Gino. Mahomes, Alan hurts, and then I would go Gino.

And then my fifth guy is actually the next line item. So when you're ready for me to drop that, I'm ready to drop it. Run it. Okay. The Bengals are back, baby. Oh, that's a, yeah, I mean. And Joe Burrow would be five for me. That is a buy, but I am keeping my receipt just in case I want to return that. Okay.

That is not. That's fair. When Zach Taylor's the head coach, that's almost mandatory. That because did you, I mean, I watched that game. I watched the game, you know, two or three times. I, every time first down came, I was like, I was stunned. I was like, there was no run. It was a pass.

I was like, I was like, can he keep doing this? And he did keep doing it. And guess what? The offense looked so good. And Joe Mixon still looked solid, running the ball. Like, he was actually. running a competent, fun, exciting game script. Yeah, he did.

I mean, I wonder how much Burroughs doing at the line of scrimmage. I was joking with Chris about this because when they got up 21-0, I think the story is correct, Chris faded Burrow and DFS and needed him to stop scoring points essentially. He's like, well, thank God, Zach Taylor is the coach. And, you know, whatever, because I need Burrow to stop scoring points. Well, they kept scoring. And that's very atypical of Taylor. So either he changed philosophically or I think Burrow was doing some things at the line of scrimmage.

But real quick, I've been saying all along that this team has to use Jamar Chase better. And the first three weeks of the season, Jamar Chase's A-DOT was 8.8. which for a guy of his skill set is very low. Yes. I might add. Since that moment, and that's really where I had the complete meltdown, his A dot is well over 10.

So it's coming up. It's creeping. It's creeping up. In the last two weeks, it's been pretty good as well. So they are figuring it out. They're throwing the deep ball, which they were refusing to do.

This early season, Steve, I almost said chargers. See that? because they looked the same. This Bengals team looked like the Chargers' offense. It was so low A-DOT. They were really only throwing Jamar the ball in the short parts of the field. You know, some manufacturer touches here and there.

They were not getting the ball deep to him. They weren't getting it deep to Higgins. Dude, they're even taking deep shots with Tyler Boyd. Like, they are mixing it up, and Burrow looks back. Yeah, they are. They've hit, like, that overrout to Tyler Boyd. Like once a week. It's working well.

Yep. It is working well. Yeah, bro, the last two weeks, his wow throw rate has climbed significantly. 6.3% without a single turnover worthy throw. So that's pretty impressive. He is dealing right now. And it's funny because Joe Burrow, I mean, from weeks one through five, he was seeing about 60 62% zone 32% man and that's actually increased you would that's actually

increased in the sense that like now he in the last three weeks he's seeing 70% zone I mean it's not a huge change but he's seeing more zone and I think he's seeing a little bit more or he's seeing less he's seeing less cover too and so it's just like interesting that I would think that his man percentage would go up. I would never play man against the Bengals. Sorry, that's what I mean. You would expect the man coverage to go down and more zone coverage, but he's actually playing better with more zone coverage than he was with more man coverage.

Interesting. That is interesting. One last burrow stat. Weeks 1 through 5, his deep pass rate. So this percentage of throws that travel. 20 yards or more downfield for the listeners was just over 6%. The last two weeks, it is almost 16%. So they are cutting it loose.

And that's where this team thrives. That's why they overperformed the way they did last year, is they have the talent in the skill position areas and quarterback to completely take advantage of opposing defenses. It really doesn't matter what coverage you play against them. They have a way to beat it as long as they're scheming it correctly. So I mean, it's like, I don't even know how they ever really got away from it. I understand that defenses obviously switch things up a little bit when they were playing, you know, Cincinnati after last year.

But still, Joe Burrow was one of the best deep ball throwers in the NFL last year. Like his completion percentage on go routes, I think was 50%. I think he was 30 for 60. He was like insane. He put up insane stats on go route throws last. year and I understand that defense has probably shifted to that a little shifted to guard that a little bit but still you have to give me like you got to give when you have guys like T. Higgins is Jamar Chase you have to give him a chance because 50-50

balls you know the old saying of like it's not a 50-50 ball with those guys it's a 60-40 ball and that I mean like it is true like throwing the ball up to Jamar Chase Jamar Chase has such good body controls such good spatial awareness. He's able to separate in ways that a lot of other receivers can't at the catch point. And like not even giving them the chance just takes away what works so well with your offense. Yep. And then look, you know, now they're starting to get back to the deep throws and, oh, all of a sudden the offense is completely opening up.

And Joe Burrow looks to be completely back. And it's just helping all the way around. And, I mean, they're doing shotgun. Like, they're starting to basically abandon going under the center, which I don't know if that's a good thing, though, long term. You don't think so? No, because the problem is when you play strictly from the shotgun, and actually, I think early in the year, this is why they were getting in trouble a little bit. When you play strictly from the shotgun, there's no deception. There's no continuity in the play design, the way the plays look.

So the benefit you get from playing under center is a ball deception. So heavy play action. Play action from the shotgun and play action from under center are completely different. Yes. Because play action from under center, you're basically hiding the ball from the defense. And they have to guess at where it is. Right. Secondly, you can design every play to look the same those first few steps.

And so, you know, especially a team like them who likes to run that stretch zone, that mid zone, you can really get the defense to key run, key run, key run. That's when your play action game works. That's when you can throw a smoke to Jamar Chase and get them to get those crazy yards after the catch. I think for Burroughs' sake, they're trying to make him as comfortable as possible with the offensive line issues they're having.

But I do think more deception and some more snaps under center will actually end up protecting that offensive line more and more. And that also gives Burrow more constructive footwork. So he doesn't, because, you know, he's got this tendency to drop past his, his blockers. Like he, he, sometimes he'll drop too deep to the point where he's surrendering past rush lanes to the, you know, the defensive ends or whatever. So, and he's not great at stepping up in the pocket necessarily. He's getting better at it.

He has to. But I would say that, uh, I, I think they should definitely. definitely have a good blend of under center versus shotgun throws. And their offensive line has improved a little, like, as far as like protecting Joe Burrow, they've improved a little bit. You know, their weeks one through five,

they're at a 27% pressure rate. The last two weeks, they're at about a 23%. So the offensive line is improving, which is good. I mean, you know, that. How does that relate to their TTT, do you know? Time to throw?

Yeah, time to throw. it's both sets it was sitting right around like a two point like he was sitting right around a two point one really yeah but you know now he's getting the ball out just as fast but it's more you know he's doing it with less pressure nice but yeah i'm i i'm buying it but zach taylor having Zach Taylor as head coach. I want to hang on to that receipt just in case, just in case things, you know, it kind of falls apart a little bit because I,

I'm going to have to see a game script like this and a game flow like this for more than one week. And I'm from Zach Taylor or even if it is Joe Burrow. Maybe Joe Burrow absolves everything and he just starts taking command and doesn't, isn't letting Zach Taylor do what, like, you know, ruin things the way that he has a way of ruining things. Not terribly, but just in the sense of like game scripts. I think if Joe Burrell prevents them from running the ball 25 times a game,

then I'm staying in on it. But if Zach Taylor takes the reins and starts messing with things again, then I don't know. But it's good. It's fun. Like this is what we. wanted this is like this team makes football more fun like i think that was part of the reason why the like NFL was so mad at the beginning like we we aren't getting any big plays and

the bangles are a very large we're a very large producer of big plays and so like i think that having them back brings a level of excitement back to the NFL that had been kind of been that I've kind of been missing in the early stages of the year, the early third of the year. For sure. All right. Last line item here. And then we're going to get out of here is I think we know that no matter what happens from now to the rest of the season with the Giants, Brian Dable is a legit head coach.

Yeah, I mean, that's a buy. And honestly, I think that my, I thought this last night, as I would, was as I went back and rewatch the Giants Jacksonville game, that I've never, I want Will Levis to go to the Giants. So bad. I want one of the top three quarterbacks to go to the Giants. Who are your top three? I mean, if right now it's Bryce, right now you'd probably say Bryce Young, Stroud, Levis. I think the hookers nippin at heels, but I still think that like those three guys are up there.

But I just like, there's so, I, what Dable did with, I helped do with Josh Allen and what he's done to help Daniel Jones succeed so far this year, I think there's, I honestly don't know if there's a better spot for. a rookie quarterback than with the Giants. And that's solely because of Dayball. Because he clearly knows what he's doing in the sense of he was able to turn, he was able to turn Josh Allen's turnover was around from the beginning of, like from the beginning of his career and help with that. And now he's like flipping the script with Daniel Jones, where Daniel Jones was averaging, I think it was like at least a turnover a game.

It was over a turnover. Yeah, it was over a turnover. a game for his entire career. And now Daniel Jones is taking care of the ball in a way that I did, I legitimately didn't even know that he could do. And so like this is awesome. And what day bowl has done is great. I like the giants continue to defy all odds in the sense that like every week,

it's like, all right, this is where the giant, this is it. This is where the giants start. unravel but like fourth quarter comes around the team hangs in and they make plays and they do what they got to do and you know like daniel jones is not blowing things out of the water i think that staquin barclay should be should be in the conversation for the MVP he won't win it but i think he's in the conversation right now i think but like it doesn't matter what daniel jones has taken or the steps he's taken to be more conscientious and inches of taking care of the ball leading the offense operating within the structure of the

offense like i you that the credit has to go to dable yeah because now you've seen that he's that it may not necessarily have been a fluke with josh allen it like he did it with josh allen he's doing things with daniel jones jr jr jr jr jr jones has a certain ceiling but he at least knows how to get the best out of them and like there's no way like I don't know they're in play for a rookie quarterback or like they should be in play for a rookie quarterback because I don't think Daniel Jones is the answer and I don't think anybody there thinks Daniel Jones is the answer but like man my takeaway from it was I really want to see like a Will Levis just because I think Will Levis is the most conceivable option for it to happen without like without them having to give up insane

draft capital to go up right now. That all could change. But here's my problem with that. What have you seen from Will Levis this year that suggests he'd be better than Daniel Jones? It's the upside play. Does Jones not have the same upside? I think Will Levis has a stronger arm. I mean, maybe a little.

Jones kind of has a cannon. I don't know. Levis is really disappointed me this year, man. But isn't there like, isn't there also something to be said about? about the upside of never having played in the NFL and kind of having a clean state to work with compared to Daniel Jones, who you're trying to not only, you're not only are you trying to improve him and teach him things. You're also trying to kind of erase some of the things he had, the learned behavior,

the things he had been doing. Like, you're also trying to erase and override that. So that's one of the things I was going to challenge you on, because I do think that's public perception for sure. But as we've been having this continual QB discussion on the podcast, I think we've kind of uncovered the fact that maybe the timelines we put on quarterbacks is too quick. And Daniel Jones already has four years invested into his development. Yeah. One of them with Daible. And you're seeing the progression already.

Yeah. And when it comes to, we just talked, we started the pod with this topic, but you only get so many QB decisions. Does Daible want to waste one on somebody as raw as Will Levis? I would think I would rather see a Hendon Hooker there who's a much more developed prospect, even though he's a little older. But I think, Steve, I think there's a good chance they roll the dice with Daniel Jones again. I don't know, though. I could be wrong. I know they didn't pick up his fifth-year option, right, and he's not an expiring deal.

Yeah, they could, I mean, they could probably sign him to approve a year. You probably don't want to waste a tag. You probably don't want to use a tag on him just because you'd be paying him a large amount of money for the tag. But I'm obviously very interested to see how this giant season keeps going because it's funny. They haven't won because of Daniel Jones, but they haven't won in spite of him. him either. Right. And I mean, there is a level of, and I get this every time I watch the Giants play,

there is a level of I'm always kind of waiting for the wheels to come off. And maybe that's just because of my preconceived notions of what I had, what I had thought about the Giants going into the season. Maybe that's probably part of it. But like, I don't know. I'm just, I'm interested to see where Daniel Jones goes the rest of the way because, I think there's a ceiling with him. And maybe it is receiving talent.

I don't know. There's a lot of questions I could go down with New York because they're just a fascinating team in the sense of what they've done, where they've gotten to, how they got there, and how he's done it with no receiving talent. Because this roster stinks and they're six and one somehow. And Daniel Jones is, I mean, even like our accuracy charting we have him what one two three four five six we have the seventh

most accurate qb in the league so far this year which is crazy because daniel jones was not a very accurate passer right he's thrown the his career check this out steve on not only is he delivering the ball at a high level his purely off target throw rate is less than anybody in the league except for bailey zapp who throws the ball four inches down the field that's incredible improvement in one season. Now, he's not making it, like you said, they're not winning because of him necessarily. He's not making a lot of those wild throws.

Right. But the turnovers are down. His turnover where the throw rate is like bottom 10 in the league in a good way. So top 10, actually. Like, he's, this is year one with, with, uh, he's Ryan Tanahill 2.0 is what you're saying. I think, yeah, but his pedigreeing archetype is closer to a Josh Allen. He's not that freaky athletic, but he's a very athletic, dude.

The guy has a 90-yard run under his belt, for God's sakes. You know? We should have been like 97. Yeah. Yes. If the listeners don't recall the play, Daniel Jones broke a long run and then slipped and fell because he was running too fast. Snipers got him. Yeah, the snipers got him.

So, but I just look at, I mean, pull up their depth chart, Steve. Just look at what this team is working with. It's, I mean, it's. It's actually crazy. I think most impressively, too, and a lot of coaches, we don't give coaches enough credit for the way they build their staff. But dable being able to get wink has been so big for this defense. This defense, on paper, they haven't been awesome, but situationally, they've been fantastic. Yeah.

And this deep line, I mean, Dexter. Lawrence is having a career. Leonard Williams is back to being Leonard Williams. Kavon Tibdo as a rookie looks really, really good. O'Sheaine Imanez looks awesome. Also, real quick, so Kvon and Tibuto, one of his biggest knocks going into this draft. Oh, you know what you're going to say. Was his motor. Yep.

And I think, I mean, this week. His love for the game, Steve, is what they said. He doesn't love the game. Put that to bed this week. I mean, the chase down tackle he had on E.T. had a couple where he came crossfield and chased down a runner like he and looked like a linebacker doing it and so like that's such it's still the laziest narrative he outran a quarterback on that play a corner back corner corner back yes there was a cornerback also chasing at the end and

timidot literally outruns the cornerback yeah he passed him you can see him just zoom right in it's crazy like the dudes of monster by the way all that criticism came from was because he did an interview one of these you know i forget the style it was like one of these laid back interviews where there's a bunch of guys in a room smoking cigars it wasn't it wasn't an NFL centric interview no and they just were talking about his aspirations and he talked about being the best businessman he could possibly be and he wants to you know build all these build this empire and so people interpreted that as oh he's not committed to football he wants to build an empire bro, you know how many football players are building empires?

Tom Brady has built an empire in the midst of winning. How many Super Bowl rings? Yeah. That's what that's. And there's a whole conversation you could go down that road too. But like either way. Well, like, we should be commending him for instead of, instead of saying, I'm going to be a jackass with my money and get my, get my roles and my, you know.

Right. Like, he's like, no, I'm going to take my money and I'm going to build an empire with it. That's freaking awesome. You should be commending the guy. God forbid the guy. I understand that he is one of the elite talents in the world and that he's not just thinking short term. He's also going to leverage that talent to continue to set himself up for success even after his playing career. God forbid, we let a guy think like that. It's like the one career where

every other career, if you don't have a, hey, what do you, what does your life look like in 10 years? Yeah. But for an NFL player, if they don't look at you and say, I'm still playing football, then everybody loses their minds. He doesn't love the game. He doesn't love the game. Yep. It's ridiculous. But, I mean, so much of this team's success is like, I still think that Sequin

Barkley should be in the discussion for MVP because he is, I think he's played so, I think he's played very well. And I think that he's like been such a big proponent of like keeping the offense on task. He looks to be completely back to his. his old self. He had a couple runs this week where, you know, he can, he's just so good at planning his foot in the ground, getting, you know, getting to his spot and getting vertical. Yep, he's good. He's good. He's elite, as the kids would say. And, like, it's, like, that's, it's fun because Daniel Jones can run the ball, too. There were so many plays on Sunday where

Daniel Jones either sealed the game or helped to seal the game by using his legs in designed runs. Yep. In pivotal positions where like it feels like they are so good at saving those. A lot of those like quarterback run, design quarterback runs. They save them for the end of the game, it feels like. Oh, yeah. They don't pepper.

They don't pepper them in throughout the entire game. kind of like save them and then those are the those are the plays of where they seal it because they want you to think that sayquine's getting the ball and they want the defense to flow towards sacuan barclay because you can't let sayquan barclay break one on you and it just put the defense like we've talked about it before but like just putting the defense in conflict and when you have a quarterback who is a very good athlete and can run the ball very well and when you have a game breaker at running back a difference maker at running back like that helps to put away games so well.

Steve, I knew this would come up eventually, so I did prepare for this. Looking at our data, what if I told you Daniel Jones has more first down and touchdown runs than Saquan Barkley?

I believe you. He has 32 combined first down and touchdown runs. Saquan has 31. Yeah. on 84 more carries. That's impressive.

It's not, it's, people are going to take that as a knock against Barclay. I'm not knocking on Barclay at all. Berkeley's season so far has been amazing, but it just shows you how versatile Daniel Jones is and how underrated his athleticism is. And I think it's a credit,

again, I think it's a credit to how well timed they use those plays. Yeah. Because like there's, because just as much as it is Daniel Jones, it is also just like a scripting thing. Daniel Jones also has six miss tackles this year, you know, on runs. So like it's not like Daniel Jones is, you know, taking a, taking a design run and doing what Lamar Jackson does with it.

Daniel Jones is not this crazy, shifty athlete who's going to make a bunch of guys miss. Like it's a credit to like their, I think it's a credit to their. they're scripting of getting him the ball, or like having him run the ball in situations that are advantageous to him. Yep. Yeah, I just looked at this game while you were talking. So Jones had seven first down runs. Yes.

Eight, if you include the touchdown. And all but two of them were in the second half of that game. Yeah. So they were dialing it up in the second half. And it was the drive where they went down, killed clock and went and kicked a field goal that put them up by six. I think they, I want to say they used three.

Four. I'm looking at the drive right now. Okay, four, yeah, four. He had four to nine quarterback runs that probably all went for first downs or at least. He had three first downs and a touchdown on that drive. Running the ball, folks, not passing, running the ball. Yeah.

And that's why they, they're so good at it is they don't really show their hand in that department until late in the game. And at that point, it's hard, it's hard for a team to, like, even if you knew that going into the game, like, I could, like, I could tell you, I could tell a defense what an offense is going to do in the fourth quarter, but like, so much happens throughout the game that shapes the way you defend things that, yes, that like, it doesn't, it wouldn't matter. It wouldn't matter. It wouldn't matter if I told you they're going to run the ball on this down they're going to run the ball of Daniel Jones on this down this down this down yep it's still like you still have a whole

game's worth of things that you've seen and you still have I mean you know your your own keys that you're that you're in on they attach read option to almost every run that they do and Jones Jones won't keep it the first you know 18 times right and then all of a sudden he's keeping it And then all of a sudden, not only is he keeping it, they're running QB power or they're running counterbash. And it's scary. And that's something that I think I'll, that's something I want to pay attention to this week is they, like you said, they attach read option to almost every run. Any type of zone play, any type of anything, they're really attaching a read option. I kind of want to go, I think I'm going to go and chart this week and look at.

how many times in the first half or really like up until you start seeing Daniel Jones keeping the ball. Is he even giving Sequin the ball on a non, on a non? Like a bad read. Yes, a bad read, a non-handoff read. I'd be curious to go and watch that. Maybe I'll look at that from the past couple of ways and come to you with it on Friday. Yeah, let me know. That would be interesting.

I would venture to say no. I don't think Debel is going to want him making the wrong read. I don't think so either. But I think they're just prepared to, you know, make the adjustment when the time comes. Right. Because if Sequin hurts you 15 times,

eventually that D.N's going to start crashing. Right. That lane and leave the end wide open for the quarterback to keep it. Right. Yeah. Yeah, please look at that. Let me know because I'm fascinated by that. But yeah.

All to say, hats, off to Daibel and what he's doing in New York. I honestly, they could lose 10 games in a row and this season is still a massive success for them, I think. Yeah, in aggregate it is, but people would then have massive questions about Daibble. Of course. How do you lose 10 games in a row? Like, you know, but I don't think that will happen.

No, it won't. I think literally worst case scenario at this point, they're looking at a nine-win season, you know, if they finish, they're six and one, right? So they've got 10 games to go. if they went three and seven down the stretch, that's still a massive wind. Yeah. So pretty impressive stuff, ma'am. No, else is impressive?

What? The brevity in which we completed this podcast. Yes. This, I mean, Wednesday-wise, this is probably our first ever under two, or at least in sure, under 150 or hour 50. I always tell you pre-show, I want to get in under two, and we actually never have, so. Until today. Until today.

But some of that's my hand being forced because I do have a heart out that I'm actually late for. So we got to. Well, then let's get you out of here. Yeah, we got a buggy. This is a good pod, Steve. Thanks for doing this. Thanks for obliging me with all the games I wanted to play. Yeah, it was fun.

I think that we're going to have to come up. We're going to have to come up with another fun game for next week because next week's slate is tough. Oh, no. There is. tell me that there's one game of winning teams playing each other well there's a lot of three and four teams right now so maybe it's a lot of mediocrity but yeah all right man well let's get out of here take care have a great rest of your day steve i am your host bro whitefield this is my co-s stephen o'rork and we are out thanks for tuning in to this edition of the fantasy points podcast

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