Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Take Talk Episode 19

Episode Date: November 4, 2022

Fantasy Points' own Chris Wecht (ChrisWechtFF) joins hosts Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) and Steven ORourke (@callmesteveo7) to discuss Week 9's TNF game, the Week 9 slate, and make some bold predictions on how the season will end. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome in to another episode of the Take Talk podcast. I'm your host, Brett Whitefield, with my usual co-host Stephen Orch. And today on another guest Friday, we have a regular. Sir Christopher Webb of Fantasy Points. He is a colleague of ours, and he's establishing himself as the nerdiest data fellow here at

Fantasy Points, which is excellent. Chris, Steve, how are you guys doing? I'm conflicted this morning. I don't know if you guys have ever experienced this, but so I'm a Philly sports fan. I think we've talked about that before on here. Never. I just watched my favorite, my football. team, the Eagles, go 8-0, but it felt almost wrong watching the Phillies now lose in the

game five of the World Series and are now down three and two. There was a point watching the Eagles game last night where I was like, you know what, I would give the Eagles losing this game if it meant the Phillies won their game. But that's just the nature of being a sports fan and the Eagles are just such on a role right now that the games don't have the same weight that they would otherwise. but so it's a weird feeling your your football team is eight no and yet you're kind of like oh this doesn't feel good so real quick where are the philly's at in the world series right now so they're down they're down one game the series is at three and two but now they have to go back to Houston for the last two games they got they got to win back to back on the road yeah on the road and chris i don't know if you

want me exposing this to the public but you do have skin in the game when it comes to this world series, correct? Yes, I did bet the Phillies back in July. Nothing crazy, but they were like plus 2,000 or plus 4,000. Nice. I forget exactly. So I did the smart thing and did bet the Astros to win to at least cover my hedge. I did a little. What was, because they gave you a buyout option, right, where you could have cashed early and took home a nice profit? Yeah. So I was looking at that closer before the series started. And I've heard this before, but I'd never really looked into it myself. But I'm pretty sure those payout options are like almost always a bad deal.

So like put to put it into perspective, when the series was at like 2-1 fillies and they were up, the payout was only like less than half of what the total winnings would be. Yet if you were to go to bet the Phillies straight up, like at that point in the series, they're at like. like minus 110, minus 140. I forget what they were. So like they're basically just, you're better off just betting the other side. Yeah. You hedge with betting the other side,

which locks in a handsome profit for you, I'm sure. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's nothing crazy if the Astros do end up winning it, but you know, you make, you get lock in some kind of profit.

That's nice. That's nice. Well, since you brought up the eight-no Eagles, we can, before we move into this week's affairs, beyond this game, we can talk about it really quick. For those of you didn't watch, the Philadelphia Eagles,

went on the road to the Houston Texans and won 29 to 17. Ironically, they played Houston, who the Phillies are also playing. Right? I mean, yes. Yes, in Houston, nonetheless. Yeah, that clicked for me, like, after the first quarter last night. I was like, oh, no way. Like, it was a real dumb moment where I was like,

I can't believe it took me that long to, like, put, two and two together there. Well, I'm really dumb then because it clicked for me two seconds before I said it. So that game last night, what did you guys think? I think perception was the Eagles would come in there and just mollywop them. And I felt like they did in the second half, but it took a little bit to get going. Yeah, the road game on Thursday nights are always tricky. Players talk about that all the time.

That's never easy. So I wasn't super surprised that they didn't come out, you know, just like dominating right from the get-go. But, yeah, as the game went on, you clearly saw who was the better team there, and it wasn't really a shocking outcome by any means. Yes. And I think the impressive part was the defense, rather, seemed to struggle a little bit in the second half, right? Or in the first half, I mean, they came out in the second half and didn't. give up squat hardly. So they had multiple three and outs,

some interceptions. The Eagles run game was not great last night. I think Pierce finished with 100 and... 139 yards. Which was a new high for him. Yeah. Yeah, Pierce looked good.

I mean, to me it looked like Philly. I don't know. If it looked like a cruise control game, it just kind of like dropped it, threw it in cruise control. laid back and just kind of let themselves go with what works. It was a good game, but yeah, Houston held up in the first half, but I don't know. Like I said, it just didn't look like Philly really exerted much effort to get the win in

the second half once they kind of opened it up. Yeah, it'll be, so Jordan Davis is now out for a little while with a high ankle sprain. That's the Eagles first round pick from this past draft. he's been a big part of their run defense. His role was basically just take up space. They would pretty much use him exclusively in rushdown, so like first down and whatnot. And so this was the first game he missed.

They called up a guy from their practice god, Marvin Wilson, and he basically played the similar amount of snaps that Jordan Davis was playing up until this point. So it was a little interesting that they would feel comfortable taking a guy that they were comfortable leaving on their practice squad and having him fill in for a guy that they viewed as a first round talent right away. Right. So not the best plan. I hope, hopefully they, you know, maybe they work with Wilson a little bit more and he gets better. But I would want to see them have a better plan for the run defense than that moving forward.

Yeah, because the splits with Davis on and off the field early in the season were like noticeable too. Where like on run downs when Davis wasn't in, I think they were giving up like almost a yard, a carry more without him on there. And so I mean, I'd still trust Philly's past defense in a way and like more than I trust almost any unit. But like, you know, we saw like tonight if a team can hang in there with with, with. the Eagles, they have a potential to kind of bleed clock and utilize a run game if they have to and if they can. And that's a way to at least give yourself a chance against the Eagles. I mean, Houston, you know, the reason they were able to kind of stay in it in the beginning is that like they were able to bleed clock and go on a couple long runs in the, in the first half. And that's just,

I mean, it's just something to be aware of with the Eagles going forward with. Davis out because like you said the guy that they replaced him with yesterday did not show up in any like noticeable way. Yeah. What's interesting Chris is I feel like the Eagles run

D is probably their one discernible flaw right now. They've gotten gashed in what? Five or six games this year. Start with the lions. Lions shredded them on the ground. Then they had a decent stretch, right? weeks two, three, four, pretty stout. And then after that, like week five, six, they were on a buy one of those weeks. And then even the Steelers last week kind of shredded them on the ground.

Yeah, they're very okay with giving up yards on the ground. We see this with a couple of teams. The Chargers play defense that way. Packers have for years. Yeah, the teams are more willing to let teams hurt you on the ground if it means that they basically lock down your passing attack. Right. Yep. which is a smart approach if we're being honest. Yeah, it reaches a point, though, where it's a problem. But in general, that is probably, if you, if you said, how do you want to, you know, you have these options of which part of your defense is better, you're going to take

the past defense side every single time. Right. And, you know, it helps when you have on your, on the opposite side, an explosive offense because while, yes, Philadelphia is giving up the fourth most yards per carry in the NFL right now, they also have faced the second least amount of rushing attempts. And so when you have an explosive offense like they do and you're able to get out to leads in the way that they do, you know, you're able to kind of take that out of it because teams have to start to abandon the run game a little bit just to get back into it and play catch up. Yeah.

And more important than just overall run defense is situational run defense. Yes. It's like can you get a stop on third and two, third and third. and three, fourth and one. Like those downs are way more important than being consistently good on the other downs. So, and I feel like they've been okay. Yeah.

Those facets. Their goal on defense is force you into second and longs, third in longs, because they, they have Jordan Davis and just a better run defense out there on first down. And basically, then they know what's going to happen. Right. Offenses that stay on the field longer, it's because they're getting into third and short. third and four at the most whatever and basically then the opposing defense can't know okay are they gonna do we think they're gonna run or pass here and basically if you can force them into third and five

third and six or longer then you just then you just have the josh sweats the branding grams now the robert quins just pin their impacts and pass rush on third down and that's been the formula for them so far so if jordan davis does miss time and they don't find a way to replace it we could start to see the Eagles give up more points than they have been in these earlier weeks, especially as they, well, they don't really have a lot of great offenses coming up on their schedule either. But if they do one day play a tougher offense, that could be a little bit of a problem. Yeah, one day in the playoffs, maybe. Yeah. Speaking to Robert Quinn, he didn't play many snaps last night, did he?

I didn't look. Now it looks like only seven total snaps, which is like 12%. So, yeah. Yeah. Maybe they've got the mini-buye now. I would expect to be more involved as the season goes on. Yeah, especially situationally. Like, you can at least put them out there in past rush situations pretty easily. Yeah.

Don't necessarily have to learn a ton of scheme for that, you know. What do we, what would you look at at with the Eagles now? I mean, they're eight-no. Is this the first ever eight-no start for them? Did I see that somewhere? Yeah. That was a record last night. Yep.

That's pretty, that's very impressive. they seem to be ticking on all cylinders. I mean, this was, like I said, this game was close early, but it turned into a pretty easy win for them by the second half. And they kind of just coasted through it. We've seen them coast through games a few times now, where it just seems like it's easy. So they're kind of just trying to get out alive.

It never felt like it was in danger, even when it was tied. Right, right. And last night, I mean, last night was just a good example of just how deep Philly is with weapons. because last night they seemed to utilize Dallas Goddard a little bit more. And I mean, AJ Brown was that he caught a touchdown, but like he was not super, super heavily targeted or involved in any way. And guess what?

The offense still scored four touchdowns, still comfortably won the game. Like they just have a deep stable of weapons where sure you can key, you can key in on AJ Brown, but okay, now they still have Devontas Smith and Dallas Goddard. Like it's just, it's such a multifaceted offense that it's hard. It's even for some of the best defenses, it's going to be hard to kind of keep this offense contained just because of how many weapons and how deep they are. That is one of the tight end screen for them works better for them than any other team. And it's not even close. Oh, I believe that.

100%. They snap the ball. They have play action with whatever running back, Niles Sanders, whatever's in. with a read option on the back of it to Jalen Hertz. So now the defense is watching those two things. Okay, he keeps the ball. Now you have to worry about the AJ Brown and Devonza Smith on the outside. Do you have them taken care of?

Now you've totally forgot that Dallas Goddard just does a quick little turn and he's got Jason Kelsey, Landon Dickerson, and Jordan Myelot are running out in front of him. Like it's so hard to stop. Even if it doesn't like get huge, huge runs off, but they run it like five times a game and it can get, like seven, eight, 15-yard chunks every single time. They hit wide receiver screens off those looks as well that are pretty effective.

In fact, Kwez had one yesterday. So he caught back-to-back passes and then didn't catch another pass the whole game. Yep. He had the 23-yard of the next play. They run RPO, read option to a bubble to Kwez. And he just misreads the block in the defensive leverage point. If he cuts that inside, he run in for days. but he misreads out, bounces it outside and gets tackled by an unblocked defender.

They're very effective hitting screens off all their looks. And they have guys who are all good after the catch. And so it makes so much sense to utilize screen game the way they do because not only they have the good yak guys, they also have very mobile, athletic, offensive linemen who can get out in front of that. And do you, like, A.J. Brown's a good, like, when he's not getting the ball, he's a good blocking receiver. Like, it's just, they, their offense is built so well. Actually, I have an interesting question. So with the way the Eagle's schedule has been,

and the number of ways that they beat people with Dallas Goddard having big games, AJ Brown, Miles Sanders, all having, you know, their own blowup games. Is that hurting Jalen Hertz's MVP? race for him like no because he's a point guard i mean he needs to be a point guard i feel like he's not talked about at all really when it comes i mean josh allen's playing amazing mahomes is doing what he normally does so i'm not saying he necessarily should be the MVP but i feel like like i don't really feel like he has much of a chance and i'm wondering is it because of who they're playing and how they're beating these teams yeah i was going to say i feel like it's a

combination of who they're playing and just the fact that I mean this is the first time they've really gone into a third quarter this year where they even have an ounce of like feeling some feeling another team breathe down their neck and so like I like it feels like this is the first time where they came out in the second half and actually had to go after it like most other games they're all it feels it seems like whenever they get into the second half they kind of just shifted into they just shift it down a gear and just play play it safe and I feel like that kind of hurts hurts

because he's like no they don't use the they don't pass it as much in the second half they can like rely on their run game and you know work that's definitely hurting him more than anything right and so like I feel like that is affecting him whereas you know Mahomes and Josh Allen they don't have his reliable of run games they utilize they use like short passing game as, you know, their extension of their run game kind of thing. So their numbers, even in the second half, like, of blowouts, they still kind of rack up some numbers. And Hertz just doesn't

get that as much. So what would have to happen for him to become the favorite at MVP? Or is it just you just don't think he has a chance? I think if they, I mean, I think if they win, like if they win out, let's say they go 70-0, 16 and 1. Yeah, he's the lock, obviously. Then, like, yeah, I think His key is just... If the bills... The bills are at, what? Five and two. So if the bills don't lose

the rest of the way, you still think he's a lot? No, I think it would be handling, for sure. That's what I'm saying. The margin for error for him to become the favorite is like super thin.

You really think the bills are going to win out? So that's why I was just checking. They've got the Vikings who are, you know, only have one loss, the Browns, the Lions, the Patriots, the Jets, the Dodds, the dolphins.

The lions will beat them. I'm serious. That's the most lines thing ever. I mean, there's actually a stat out there about the lions beat future Super Bowl winning teams more than any other team in the NFL. It happens all the freaking time. That is bizarre.

It is the weirdest. It's like they just play up for whatever reason. All right. So, well, we'll just, for the sake of this argument, we're not going to tackle lions. they've got the Vikings, the dolphins, and the Bengals left on their schedule as the most likely candidates to give them another loss. Yep.

So let's say they drop, like, best case scenario, only one of those games. So Bill's finish, uh, what would that be? 14 and 3. 14 and 3. Yeah, I think Alan probably, probably wins it. Yeah. Unless the, unless the Eagles really only lose one game or less, if they go undefeated, you're not,

you're not given the MVP to anyone else but hurts. You can't. Especially considering they were like, they barely made the playoffs last year. Right. He's just, he's really tailed off on in from the statistical categories as the season going on.

Like, it's because he hardly plays in the second half. Yeah, I know. It's not really his first. But like, like, even his, like, he was crushing, he was leading in wow throw rate for a while. Now he's, you know, he's, he's not like falling off but he is a slightly above average to average actually he's really literally right in the middle um so he's his completion percentage over expectation is slightly

above average so even some of the efficiency metrics he's not crushing in i'm not saying he's not playing well he's playing awesome it's just it's i mean this this could i would not be shocked we see a one-loss, undefeated team, whatever it is, and the QB not-in-N-V-P because of circumstances and other guys like Josh Allen

just playing amazing. Yeah, I mean, Kanda Ritz's running ability, too. He leads the NFL and rushing touchdowns for quarterbacks, pretty by double, I think. That's because they have the greatest

QB sneak play designs in the history of football. It's true. It's my favorite thing. Every week they do something different. This week they did the, you know, look like you have a guy

going to push right behind him and then Hertz just like runs out outside the left tackle and everybody else just pushed him and literally nobody touched him until he was across the town. They had one at the end of the game too, right? Yeah, they just pushed him forward on that one. Yeah. Yeah, and they did it for the two-point conversion too. I think they said, I think they said on the broadcast and this was after like the first one.

So I think like their stats are that they're somewhere around like 15 for 17, 16 for 18 on like fourth and one or like and one to go when they run that QB sneak play like it's super efficient it's amazing that more teams have not one caught on to when you're in these short yardage to go situations just QB sneak it and two stealing some of these weird play designs that they're doing right yeah I love the one where Goddard lines up right behind him and literally just full on pushes him it is yeah The two-point conversion play was hilarious because, like, they had no shot of stopping that. No.

Like, Houston's entire D-line just gets, like, wiped out three yards off the ball. Yeah. They literally don't care. They're telegraphing what's coming, and it just doesn't matter. Yeah. So here's a question for you. Here's a question for you guys. Philly, I mean, so Philly hasn't been able to really flex their full offensive wings for a whole game yet.

It doesn't feel like. But out of Philly, out of Philly, out of Philly. Philly, Miami, Kansas City, and Buffalo. Which offense do you feel most confident in to score 35 points in a game? Like, who do you feel most confident in a shootout? Give me the list again? Philly, Miami, Buffalo, Kansas City. Buffalo.

Buffalo? Yeah. Probably Buffalo, KC, Miami, Philly. So is this because they have to, like they're in a shootout? Yes, yes. Yeah, Buffalo, KC, Miami, Philly. Yeah, I think I'd rank him. I think I'd go Buffalo.

I want to say Philly, but I would also be concerned that they would say, hey, we're not going to get into a shootout. We're just going to beat you with our run game because they can. Right. That's my concern, too. They lean on the run game and, like, just methodical play designs. Like, they have a lot of drives that are 10, 11 players because they're short throws. A lot of RPO stuff.

Dolphins do the same thing, to be fair, but they just have Hill and Waddle. So they can get yards in a hurry where Buffalo and KC, though, I rank them one and two. They have the most experience doing this already. Like we see it all the time. When they need to put the gas on, they put the freaking gas on. So. Miami is. Honestly, right now I would put Miami second behind Buffalo.

Really? just that like in the five games of two has played the whole time they're five they're five and oh and it's like i just don't see a team that can i still don't see a team that can truly contain like hill and waddle it's i mean it's just crazy i like after watching it sunday and just having watched it for, you know, eight games a season, I just, I feel so confident that Miami is an offense that it's like, you're just hoping that the clock runs out in time because they're going to explode. It's just a matter of when it happens and have you held them off long enough before it happens.

So I'll say this. I got real quick, Chris, I got something crazy to tell you, Steve. Do you know the dolphins have only scored more than 21? points and one game this season. That's literally what I was going to say. That's true. And they scored under 20 points five times. So two amissed a few of those games. Wait, only one game? Only one game over 21 points. No, no, no, there's two. The Ravens and the Lions. Oh, yeah, sorry, Ravens on, yeah.

And Detroit. Which are arguably the Lions are the worst defense and the Ravens get lit up in the past game. almost every single week. And the Ravens had two busted coverages that resulted in two 70-yard touchdowns, basically. Right. But they were held under 20, four weeks in a row. Week seven, they scored 16. Week six, they scored 16. Week five, they scored 17.

Week four, they scored 15. Yeah. So that's a... So with that, and that was when to a, right? That was Bengals game. and two have missed like the second half basically two missed the whole or yeah he didn't miss the whole bangles a game that's right that was the bad one then he missed the jets game and then and then he was back for the vikings

or i believe it was week six the vikings yeah no he did not play that game either oh you're right that was yeah yeah so i don't really think we know what the dolphins are yet i've said multiple times though that we're like two plays away from the perception of their offense being entirely different. They are the most, I'll give you that they're the most explosive, though, of just solely because of what Tyree Kill and Jalen Wado can do. Right.

If you said who, if I have one play and I need to go 70 yards, I'll take that option. True. I just, it'll be interesting to see going forward, hopefully, like, if Tua's past the, you know, health issues, like if he stays healthy the rest of the year, I, it feels like they're starting to, click though. I mean, two his efficiency numbers have been crazy. I think he's like he's highest

in completion either he's second highest in completion percentage and second highest and adjusted completion percentage. Like he's, I mean, when two is on the field, they're at least pretty efficient. Yeah. They're in the middle of the soft part of their defense too, or so their defense, soft part of their schedule. They have the lines this week, or, last week, sorry, they got the Bears this week. They get the, was it the Texans? No, the Browns the week after that. Their defense is a little

better, but that team's still not very good. Then they're going to buy, and then they get the Texans when they come back from that. They're a one-win team. I mean, this is the part of the schedule. They should really be able to freaking put up points. Right. This is the fine-tune it for when you go up against Buffalo again and start to make your late

and push. Because, like, Miami this week is probably like one of just a couple teams, like one of three, two or three teams this week that I feel confident in saying, like, that I think that they'll win. It's just a, like, it feels like a weird slate this week, but like not a lot of games where, not a lot of games where I feel confident in one team over the other. Yeah, there's, there's three at most to me. And it's Miami over the bears, Buffalo over the Jets and Kansas City over Tennessee. And that one is, I wouldn't fight with anyone if they told me Tennessee had a chance in that one.

I even, dude, I even think Jets and Buffalo is sneaky. I did with the ways. I don't think the Jets are going to win, but man, like, I don't think that, I'm not like. Zach Wilson's just been so bad. Yeah, I was going to say, I'm like, I feel zero. I have zero confidence in Zach Wilson to do anything against Buffalo. defense. If they save, I mean, if they pressure Zach Wilson, the game's over,

which they can and they probably. They don't even need the pressure and he'll run out of the clean pocket for no reason. He's got to get those yoga balls up, bro. Yeah, he'll create the pressure in his head. Yeah, and so he is really bad.

I feel confident in Buffalo. I know, because the jet, like, it's funny how that draft class went from us feeling so confident to now like half the T like like the Jets I would say are probably in the market for a QB after this year. Yeah, and they're not going to be a spot to get one. No, they're not.

But I think that we all can pretty confidently say that if they keep winning games, would you be shocked? I wouldn't be shocked if we see Joe Flacco again, honestly, at some point. It's just hard to make that. I mean, I wouldn't, I don't know if I'd be, I don't think I'd be surprised 100%, but like, gosh, that'd be a real, like, you'd be, you'd be really telling your fan base, like we're done with him. We made a massive mistake, and I don't know if any NFL team is going to do that.

It's tough. It is so early, and he does have. crazy raw tools i don't know that you can give up on them that soon because they weren't really supposed to be competitive this year anyways yeah but they are i know you just have to but you have to keep things in perspective right like i don't know i know and that yeah i mean they're not going to win the division or even finish second in the division but and then who's going to finish second Miami yeah oh yeah sorry yeah and that's where there are or buffalo whatever there are a couple

teams right now that are in that position that the jets are in. The Giants. Atlanta. I mean, like. They know Marriota is not their guy. I know, but like these positions where teams that are in the market for a quarterback are winning too much. Yeah, they're playing well.

They're winning games and not. That's what the Colts, the Colts were like, hey, let's not be dumb. We don't have our QB right now. All these other teams are winning games. They shouldn't be winning. Let's just not win anymore. Grow Ellinger in there.

Yeah, let's look at that for a second, because teams drafting at the top right now, the Lions, QB needy. But the Raiders just signed a car to an extension. The Jaguars are in year two of Trevor Lawrence, the first overall pick. The Panthers probably need a QB, You know, though PJ Walker looks like, I don't know, a young John Elway.

Yeah, if he can maintain consistency. Nah, they're not doing it. They've already tried it. They've been there before. So I think they know and have their answer. They like him as a backup, but that's about it. Well, you're right. Competition to the top of the draft for QBs is a lot different.

than we thought of it. Especially, like, Eagles are going to have high picks, and Hertz has obviously played them into not needing a quarterback, so they're probably off the table. The Saints don't have a pick, right? Because it's Eagles. Eagles. Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, if you're the Colts, you absolutely tanked the rest of the season and go get a quarterback. Because you're looking at two other teams that need one. Or you're more teams that need them, but two teams that need one that will be in position. to get one. Is there a team outside of the current top three picks, Detroit, Houston, Carolina?

Oh, I forgot about Houston. They definitely need one. So those are the top three currently one, two, three in that order. And then Colts are currently sitting at 15. There is not a team, in my opinion, between them that should definitely be looking for a QB. It's Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, the Raiders. Tampa, well, Tampa Bay may, but let's assume that they don't finish this high. Then the New Orleans pick that goes to Philly.

Houston again. Seattle, don't, that one's a little up in the air, too. They got a roll of Gino. Right now, Arizona, and then Chicago. Fields is starting to play a little bit better, but still has a long way to go. I don't know what the hell they'll feel about him. Green Bay, assuming Aaron Rogers doesn't retire, and then you have the lines again, and then you get to the Colts.

So the Colts could easily get themselves into position to have a top five pick, if not even higher. Yeah. Right. And that's where, like, boom, now you're at. Right there, you're at about four quarterbacks, which it's a good team. It's supposedly going to be a good year for quarterbacks. Everybody thinks we've, you know, we've talked about it a little bit, and I know everybody else

is starting to talk about it. But once you get past four, like now you're in this weird position for like, like I said, the Giants, the Falcons. The Giants. The Falcons are after them. The jets are after them. And the Titans are after them. Like, unless they do decide to go with Malik Willis,

assuming Tanhill is done after this year. Yeah, Malik salutes time. Yeah, exactly. So the other like QB needy teams, are all winning too much. Yeah. I looked at that and said we can we can put ourselves it's going to suck this year, but we can put ourselves in a good spot moving forward.

Yeah, all this to say that like, they're just, they're just three teams that are in a weird position of like, as a, like, as a fan, it's funny because at like, they're all teams that have been kind of starved for winning outside of Atlanta. I mean, Atlanta, it's been a little bit, but like the other two teams and fan bases that have been starved for winning and competitiveness. It's like, I don't know. I wonder if there's like a feeling of like not necessarily doom,

but just like we're getting closer to that moment. And like what's going to happen at the quarterback position for them next year if they aren't able to get a draft pick. And if we don't see the type of quarterback movement we've seen in pre previous years. The NFC South Division is actually like super interesting from a draft perspective because there is going to be a massive swing in who in draft position and who wins that division. Like we were, so we just said the Panthers are sitting at three. If they don't miss that extra point, they jump. They're at 19 in Atlanta is all the way up there.

I guess they would be because they would have been three and five. So they would have been in top 10 range. So not a three, but up there. like man Arthur Smith that game could come back to haunt them come a year

draft time the Falcons are kind of annoying right like we I mean we've talked about how annoying they are all year

offensively but just the fact that like they think they can win I think they 100% think they can win it's gonna cost

them substantially in the future I think yeah I don't know I need to like I'd love to have Arthur Smith

on the pod so I could pick his brain a little bit or even just one of his players. But I got to know, what is the psychology? What is the point of diminishing returns? Because I know when you're trying to build a culture and you're trying to undo the past, you do need to win games to give everyone confidence in the vision. Like that's something Dan Campbell's not getting in Detroit. It's like everyone's bought into this vision.

But if they don't start winning some games, it's going to go away fast. People are going to lose sight of what that is. He's already starting to lose some of the goodwill that he had built up. For sure, for sure. And so maybe Smith is enjoying the fact that they've gone four and four so far because you are changing the psychology of the team, basically. But at one point does it become diminishing returns to where you're putting yourself so far down the draft board that you can't even address the number one thing you need to

address to move forward? And he's already lived this life. and he didn't learn from it. He came from the Tennessee Titans who literally are now were basically forced to trade away their best player on the team in AJ Brown because they need to rebuild

because they never they tried to play this brand of football that just frankly just doesn't win Super Bowls. Right. Well, not when you're competing against the bills and the Chiefs, it doesn't. Well, that's not going away. No, no, I'm just agreeing, but maybe in the NFC it works

I guess is what I'm saying. Yeah, but in the past years, like Tampa Bay, the Rams even, like, there was tough composition in the NFC, too, not to the level of the AFC, but yeah. So, like, he clearly has not learned from his mistakes with watching what he is doing. To be fair, he wasn't in Tennessee when they had to trade Brown, though. No, no. Actually, they didn't have to trade Brown. Vrabel was clearly pissed that they decided to trade Brown.

Yeah, they didn't have to for sure, but they, they looked. They didn't want to pay him. Right, yeah. They realized that they couldn't shell out the money they needed to to keep him because they know they're not good enough to win. Yet they're probably going to have a very good chance at winning the division again. They'd rather pay Bud Dupree in Harold Landry than AJ Brown. So he's already seen this story, this career arc play out,

and he's just jumping full force into it again. Yeah. The big conservative of them when they hired Smith was like, Derek Henry and AJ Brown are both unicorns. For all the running back so matter talk, there's plenty of data points that suggest Derek Henry is probably the one running back that does matter. Even EPA-wise.

Then running the ball with Derek Henry was actually a valuable play. Maybe not this year, but in years past it had been. So the big concern was like if he doesn't have unicorns, you know, how good is his offense going to be? And I think we're kind of seeing that because Pitts is a unicorn for sure, but he's not being utilized. London is very good, but I don't think he's a unicorn. No, I don't think so. And we're really seeing the limitations of an Arthur Smith offense when he doesn't have those just absolute freaks of nature.

But, man, I really got to know what their plan is. If they beat the Chargers on Sunday, which is there's a chance that happens, right? I mean, it's set up for Atlanta to win. I mean, it's in Atlanta, right? Yes. Like, yeah, Herbert's A-DOT is going to be like four yards. Yeah. It's Keenan Allen out for sure.

Yeah, and then Mike Williams. Yeah, I mean, Josh Palmer's running his wide receiver won for him. Yeah. But, like, I mean, it's set up for Atlanta. The chargers give up 5.7 yards of carry. Like, they're. Oh, this is the dream matchup for them. Oh, like this is everything you could hope for.

Like, they would play the Chargers every single week. I mean, it's, yeah, like, yeah. They should lean into Arthur, if there was a time for Arthur Smith to be like, this is the reason we play this way, we are not going to pass the ball at all and just shove it down the Chargers' throats. Right. Until they say we can stop them. They'll have like three backs get 20 carries.

This game's going to take an hour and a half. I think, I think Cordero of Patterson, or at least has a very good chance of playing this week. He does. He's been rolled in yet. So, yeah, they're getting, who looked very good in weeks one and two. I mean, he's leading, like, obviously it's a smaller sample size for him, but he's leading the NFL in carries that go, that go, and percentage of carries that go over

five yards or more. Like, he's, he's good for their offense. He's a unicorn, actually. I talked about the unicorns. He actually is one. He's just 31. I mean, the poor guy. The poor guy just took four teams in 10 years for someone to figure out how to use him.

Yeah, the Bears did figure it out for half a season, and then he left for Atlanta. They were using him as a running back his last year. Yeah, that's right. It's actually crazy that a running game is as effective. There is 26 other running backs that have higher guards before contact per attempt until you get to a Falcons player at Tyler Ajeer is number 27 at 1.2 yards before contact for a tent. So, like, see, these are the things where, like, Arthur Smith is clearly very smart about how to build an effective run year.

Yes, absolutely. And it's just, I mean, it's crazy because it's, he doesn't even have the players to really, to warrant doing it. Yeah, because Atlanta, I mean, Atlanta last year had the, no, obviously, two, different parts of the game, but Atlanta had the worst pass blocking offensive line in the NFL last year. They were really bad. They were bad. I mean, they've been bad running the ball basically since their Super Bowl year. Like, Atlanta's never been good running the ball. True. Like, I mean, yeah, hats off to Arthur Smith, because clearly he, he deserves to be in the

conversation with, like, Kyle Shanahan when it comes to run game scheme because they have no business doing what they're doing. This is true. It'll be interesting with the teams like Atlanta, Atlanta and New York, both New York teams, even not so much Tennessee, but like those three teams, I feel like it'll be interesting to see if they have a little bit of regression because they did like a lot of all three of those teams wins this year have been end of game, making something happen at the end of games. And it'll be interesting to see how those, if those.

teams continue to pull those games out or get themselves in those situations or if we see some regression just because I mean they are you know less talented rosters yeah especially the falcons like we're like we saw it a look honestly with all not Atlanta because Atlanta won last week but with both New York teams we kind of saw the the cracks in their armor a little bit last week. I mean, the Giants lost because of, the Giants lost to a Seahawks because of, you know, a couple bad special teams plays. But, like, that's just the regression that it feels like that that's coming for those teams. Like, Zach Wilson not playing well. If New York writes that out, like, we could see, we could see their record flip quickly. Yep. I agree.

Let's look ahead at the rest of this week. What else do we know about this week. You mentioned Chiefs Titans, Chris. How strongly you feel about that? Andy Reed is like one of the best, I forget his exact career, but he's like one of the best coaches of all time coming off the by. So that's kind of why I put it in the bucket of they're not losing this game on top of that the Titans really have no business being able to keep up with them offensively. I will, I wonder, I mean,

shockingly, Kedarious Tony's hamstring feels a lot better now that he is beginning to play with Patrick Mahomes. So it sounds like he's going to at least suit up with a week off. So on the buy, I'm sure they were able to get him involved and at least have some kind of package of plays for him.

Tennessee defense is, it's scrappy, but they still give up these big plays. like too frequently and if there's a team that's going to be able to keep up with him it's definitely the chiefs and tennessee's past defense isn't the best either like this statistically so miami chicago is the other one that i feel pretty good about justin fields looks a little bit better but probably not good enough uh to beat the dolphins uh the dolphins defense just probably the Bears defense probably just doesn't have what they need to be able to keep up with

Tyree Kill and Jalen Wattle. And then the only other game is really the Bills and the Jets. But everybody else, I mean, I could see either side winning. I could see the lines beating the Packers. We just spoke a lot about Atlanta beating the Chargers. I wouldn't even be shocked if the Panthers beat the Bengals. Yeah, that Bengals, the Bengals offense without Jamar Chase, they still kept the foot on the pedal a good amount,

but it just didn't look good. No, it really didn't. Yeah, they were still pretty high. I think they led the league in week eight in pass rate over expectation. So they're definitely not like Zach Taylor is not going full run game. But the passing plays that they're doing just, it's a lot like what the charges are doing with Herbert. They're just not pushing the ball downfield.

And T. Higgins could be a wide receiver one on like more than half of the NFRAs. fellow rosters. Yeah. Yeah, the Bengals, they got blown out last week, right, against the Browns? It was pretty ugly. Yeah, they couldn't move the ball. It was like 32 to 13. Yeah, I forget the exact score.

But yeah, the Browns were able to do pretty passing or throwing. They could do whatever they wanted on them. So the Bengals defense is not great. PJ Walker looks decent. DJ Moore is an awesome receiver. Like, yeah, would not shock me to see them at least put up a fight with the Bengals. angles. For the Bengals sake, I hope that's not the case. That would be, man, that would not be great. What, uh, the, the Ravens are leading that division, right? Yeah, they're five and three.

That would be, real quick, real quick, talk, let's talk about the PJ Walker throw. Oh, my gosh. He's, he's made, so week seven, he had, what, six wild throws for us in one game. And then he comes in this game and has three and then the final one was it traveled 70 yards in the air like i mean that throw was ridiculous mohomes even tweeted right afterwards that's the throw of the year that's the one i mean it was the long that throw was ridiculous i mean it's it really sucks though the NFL had to penalize dj more for ripping off his helmet when he caught that because man like i couldn't i could only imagine being in your shoe his shoes at the moment when you make that play, like, you're not thinking about, like, oh, I can't rip my helmet off right now.

If there was, if there was one complaint I had about, like, the refs that past week, it's just, like, just have a little, like, you know, there's some gray area of this stuff. We don't, nobody would have complained if you didn't throw the flag there. Maybe some Falcons fans would have, but, like, even then probably wouldn't have even thought anything of it. Their team just gave up a 70-yard Hail Mary play that should have no business being caught anyway. Yeah, you know what he should have done as soon as he saw the flag come out?

He should have thrown himself on the ground and grabbed his face. Like he was hurt. Yeah. You know what I mean? So, like, I had to rip my helmet off because I think my jaw's broken or something. Just anything. Any, like, pull LeBron and just completely flop, you know? But I'm torn on that, Chris.

I get what you're saying. Like, let's not be the no fun league. Come on. Like, the guy's clearly celebrating one of the freakiest plays you'll see all year. but at the same time like man can we uh can we like just remember where you are for one second DJ like you know you can't take your helmet off you know like it just you can't you can't do it yeah it's it's it's it's just man I just like what a way to like have a game end and you just just like so deflating I mean technically he wasn't on the field of play when he

ripped off his helmet. He was on the sidelines at that point. Like, he was out of the end zone. Was he out of the end zone when he took off? Pretty sure he was. If you go back and look at it, like he had exited the end zone by the time. Keep talking. I'm going to, I'm going to watch this play. By the time he took his helmet off. I mean, the throw is insane. But like for Atlanta to let DJ Moore get behind them on a Hail Mary with prevent defense. I mean, that's inexcusable. on like every level. Like, it's the one rule. It's the only rule of playing against the Hail Mary is you do not let anyone get behind you. It was one of the weirder prevent defenses I've ever seen.

They kind of just let him pass. Right. It's almost like they didn't think Walker had it in him to throw it that far. I don't really know. That ball went 70 yards in the air, by the way. It was the longest, it was the longest air yards throw ever completely. as tracked by next gen, I believe. Steve, he was 100% in the end zone when he took it off.

Was he? Okay. He was like on the white, the back line. He took it off and then jumped into the crowd, helmetless. Lastly not in the field of play though. Definitely not a danger to himself. I don't, what is, what's the rule for anyways? Does anyone know why they made the rule?

It can't take your helmet off. I think it's, it's probably, yeah, it's probably, um, safety reasons. I would imagine. The plays over. What's the safety reason? If a guy cheap shots him, that guy should get penalized, not the dude who took his helmet off. I don't know. You're asking the team that penalized A.J. Brown for pointing at the two defenders that he just caught, his third touchdown.

That was ridiculous. So, like, I don't know. I can't understand all the logic behind it. I watched that, like, five, the A.J. Brown won, like, five times. Because in my head, I'm like, did he, like, do a throat slash? Like, what happened there? Like, they got penalized for pointing at him? Yeah.

Like, that's funny. And it was the third touchdown, right? Yeah, I would have, listen, I would have been talking way more crap than AJ Brown was if I scored three touchdowns of that manner in the same game. All three of them were bombs. The primary corner was the same on all three too, right? All in the first half. That's a good question. One was against cover two, I think.

So it was zone. But then there was definitely a couple man slash covered three looks in there. Yeah, that's a good question. I'll look that up. But listen, if you give up three bombs to me in one game, I'm doing a lot more than point in that you guys, okay? I'm just saying that right now. I probably, yeah, I will be the most obnoxious human on the planet, that's for sure.

Steve, what else do you think you know this week? I know that I have no idea if I'm not in Minnesota. is good or not. I know that for a fact. Like everything, like, everything about their record says they're good. You've watched them win games, like, not super convincingly. They've, you know, they've won games, but it hasn't been in any convincing matter. I think Kirk Cousins has like an A dot of five the last, I think, three or four weeks. And they're...

Is that it? Yeah, it's super low. It's bottom two. it's bottom two to four in the NFL right now. And their defenses, their past defenses average at best. I'm excited and interested to continue watching Minnesota this year, especially now that they added Hawkinson, even though I don't know how much truly that adds to their offense

or how much they're going to feature him. But I can handle that question. Yeah, go ahead. Real quick, because I'm interested. It's not. It's not going to help. Yeah. Well, he, I mean, he's not good in the run game and they build a lot of stuff off play action and stuff like that. So that's going to be problematic.

And then just getting him up to speed in the past game, yeah, he might have games or moments where he's very effective for them. I just, I don't think it's going to be this year where he really shines for them. Yeah, which is fair. And, but yeah, I like, Minnesota could, I could see them as a team that either could make. they could make it to the Super Bowl or they could lose in the first round of the playoffs. And I think both outcomes are just as likely as the other because they seem like such a volatile team. Yeah, for sure.

And more on to your point, too, I mean, the Vikings, since week two, their loss to the Eagles, every one of their games has been a one possession game. Now, they've won them all. Right. But they're winning by three points here, seven points there. I think a couple eight point wins as well. So that's technically one possession. But I do think that they're one of those teams where a couple of those teams where a couple of

plays go the other direction and they're definitely not six and one. Right. So I like the take. I don't think we really know what the Vikings are yet. Chris, what do you think about the Vikings? I think they're overrated. Most of that stems from, I've never just been a big Kirk Cousins fan. He just doesn't win, you know, those big games.

This week, yeah, they can totally beat Washington. There's no reason they couldn't. But I don't love how they've been using Justin Jefferson. You see teams like the Eagles with AJ Brown and the Bills with Stefan Diggs. I mean, Tyree kills technically the one in Miami, but Waddle is right next to him. You have this superstar player and he, for the most, he's had like two blowup games, I think, and he's been, he hasn't really been bad, but like Justin Jefferson should be taking over games for them. and they're just not doing that offensively.

Part of the problem is probably, you know, KJ Osborne hasn't really taken a step forward like some people thought he would this year. Dalvin Cook is still a very good running back, but seems to be dealing with a shoulder injury that he deals with every year already. Thielen is another year older and hasn't been really amazing.

I think he's actually on the brink of some franchise record, I think it's a touchdown record. They've been like trying to force feed a menzo in targets the past few weeks, and he's just not catching. Solid. Yeah. And so then they add T.J. Hawkinson, who I keep comparing is basically fancy Irv Smith. Like, there's not much of a difference in a player.

Like, yeah, I would rather have Hawkinson over Irv Smith. But Hawkinson. $15 million a year. Right, exactly. And he's never done so much. for the lion's offense that he warrants giving up what they gave to get him and the money that you're going to have to pay him. He's a perfectly good tight end, but if he's taking targets away from Justin Jefferson,

that's a problem. And if he's not going to pull coverage away from Jefferson, then that's double the problem. So it's just, you know, they've got these weapons. Between Cook and Jefferson, that's who the offense should be running through, and it really doesn't. And the defense, particularly the secondary, is old. Yeah. Like, Patrick. Yeah, your Jefferson point, sorry. To your point, he hasn't scored a touchdown since week one. Their inability to get him in the end zone is crazy. And he has had weird weeks. I think he had a three-catch 14-yard game once. Yeah. Yeah, actually against Eagles, he had 48 yards.

The next week against the Lions, he had 14 yards against the Lions, by the way, who's passed defense has been bad. Atrocious. And then he went berserkow the next two weeks, 147 yards, 154. No touchdowns, though, since week one. So, I mean, I thought the new scheme they're running there with a lot more, you know, spread looks and three wide receivers was going to help Jefferson because presumably their pass rate would go up.

But we haven't really seen it manifest in touchdowns at all. Yardage-wise, he's still insanely. proficient, but yeah, I don't know. I don't know what they're going to do moving forward. They, Hawkinson might help a little bit, but man, I really don't know. I don't know what we have here. I would not be shocked if Washington beat them, to be quite honest, although it is Taylor Heineke.

So Taylor, Taylor He's scrappy, though. Yeah, he's scrappy. He, you know, he's one of those guys that, like, wins games. It feels like, like, he's a fun, he's just a fun player to watch. and Washington defense, Washington's defense is solid. Like Christian Derrissau has played really well for Minnesota, but Minnesota's offensive line is nothing crazy. So like there's a chance that, I mean, the Eagles showed it.

If you can get Kurt Cousins under pressure, he'll make mistakes. Yeah. Chris, you said you don't really like Kirk Cousins. So just for clarification purposes, if Kirk would have say, you like that? You like that? You would in fact say, no, Kirk, I don't. I don't like that.

I would say no. Okay. All right. I just wanted to get that out there. Cool. Let's do this before we sign out for the day. Let's go, let's get a bold prediction for now to the rest of the season from each of us. And we'll discuss each one fairly.

I'm probably going to hate both of yours. Steve, why don't you go first? Why don't you throw a bold prediction? My bold prediction is that Minnesota makes the NFC championship this year. Despite everything that I just said and we just said, that's why I'm laughing. I think Minnesota finishes the year with less than five losses and makes it to the NFC championship.

So that was the weirdest turn of events in the history of the world. See, this is all a setup. It was all a setup to get a, to get a reaction. You know what, Steve? I've had to do this before on the pod. I'm calling homerism. And here's why. You know darn well if the Vikings win a playoff game,

the lions only have to give them the fifth instead of that conditional fourth. So I see what you're doing here. I didn't even think. I didn't even think. I didn't. Oh, yeah. Honestly, I didn't even know those conditions to that level. Yeah, that's the condition of the trade.

It's a fourth round pick unless the Vikings win a playoff game, then it's a fifth round pick. Yeah, I just like the NFC. So for me, it just comes down to the NFC is weak. They still get another game against the Lions, another game, or what is it, have they played the Bears yet? I think they get another game against the Lions, two games against the Bears and another game against the Packers.

Yeah. there's four games right there that I feel, I feel they will, they can and will win. Like, I don't know. I just like, sometimes teams just win games. And this feels like this is just a team that is going to find a way to win games.

And like when it comes down to it, Justin Jefferson's enough of a superstar that I think he can make play. He can continue to make plays down the stretch. And I hope that they start to prioritize, prioritize getting him the ball more often because he's a guy that can shift the tide of one score games but yeah that's my bold predictions after after everything i said about how i have no idea who they are i i still think that they pull it off and they go on a run this year real quick just a last note on that because i do think you know momentum's a thing after this week they get the bills

the Cowboys, on the road to the Patriots, on the road for the Jets. That's a tough bit of schedule, and then they close out the year. They get the Giants in Week 16. Like, that's not, obviously we learned that's not an easy game. In Lambo on January 1st, like, I know they've already beat the Packers, but that's still not going to be an easy game. So to me, there's four or five games there that they definitely could lose. But anyways, you're just.

Your point is your point. Chris, any last thoughts on the Vikings? No, I think we pretty much, we talked about Kirk Cousins enough. And you don't like that. You don't like that. Don't like it. All right, Chris, what is your bold prediction from now to the rest of the year? All right, so if I said this to you at the beginning of the season, it would seem much more bolder than it is now because they have the same record. But I'm going to stick with it. The Giants finish with a better record than the Cowboys. Wow

The Let me Let me give you some Some QBs that have a worse Some yeah Some QBs that have a worse turnover Worthy Threat than Dak Prescott Teddy Bridgewater

And Taylor Hineke And that's the end of the list Small sample though Chris I'm calling a small sample Oh yeah for sure it's a small sample But so are those other two guys And they're the only two that are worse than it The guys

like he dacks up almost at 6% like that is much higher than Kirk cousins than Kyler Murray than Trevor Lawrence the Davis Mills Daniel Jones for that matter he ranks so I made a chart this week that basically was showing turnover worthy 3 versus wow throw rate basically if you're in the if you're in the top left quadrant that is like the worst place you could meet means you have a higher turnover where rate and a low wow throw rate. The guys in that top left corner are Heineckee, Bridgewater, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Kenny Pickett,

Dak Prescott, and of course, Kirk Cousins. And that's it. That's tough company. Like that is not a good, that is not a good group of QBs to be surrounded by small sample or not. But like, this Cowboys offense is just not anything special in my, guys. First of all, Jerry Jones is going to insist on giving the ball to Ezekiel Elliott over Tony Pollard, no matter what happens until the end of time. To be fair, Pollard completely

sucked this year until this past week. Sure, but he is clearly a better runner at this point than... I would say he's clearly a more explosive runner. Yes, but that's the most important thing with running. It's true. Like, like Zeke's three or four yards per carry or whatever it is, is not worth not having Pollard's 15-yard runs every so often. Right. I would agree. We've seen DAC and CD not be the best together over the years.

They're clearly missing having another alpha wide receiver in that offense. Yeah, if they had like a guy like a Mari Cooper, that'd be crazy. Yeah, I mean, I think he can be had for like a fifth or sixth round pick or something. He probably doesn't cost much. I've just never been a fan of the Cowboys offense. Dak is a perfectly good QB, but he is not good enough to make up for the rest of the deficiencies on offense. It wasn't that long ago that we were severely concerned about their offensive line.

Nobody's really talked about that recently because they've been playing well. But there's no reason to believe that that should just hold up for the rest of the season and into the playoffs. I do, I mean, it's going to be hard for both the Giants and the Cowboys to not make the playoffs because both of the schedules as the rest of the NFCs is not very hard and they only have two losses each. So, I mean, there's a good chance that they each finish with three or four losses and that's it. So it's going to be hard for them both to not make the playoffs.

And yeah, I just, I don't know. There's, there's, they've shown me nothing to think that this year, is any different, if not the worst offense they've had over the years. And they're very largely being carried by their defense, which is awesome. But when it gets into the playoffs and stuff, your defenses, we have not seen defenses carry teams in recent years. Yeah. True. So I don't, I don't like your take, but I don't really have an argument against it.

So I guess that makes it a good take. I mean, my only argument would be is I still think Daniel Jones. sucks, even though he's played pretty well. Oh, yeah, yeah. He hasn't even played pretty well. Day Bull's got the most out of a pretty bad quarterback, I think. Yeah, Davele has, I was trying not to believe in it, but, and I'm still not a believer in Daniel Jones, but Dave all has just been pretty amazing so far as a head coach and how he's

operating from giving up play-calling duties to maximizing the players that he has on his team. I just think that they are going to whether they should or not win more I mean they've already done it they've already won more games than they were supposed to do they like I see them dropping they play the Eagles twice and the Vikings then they play the commanders twice the lions

the Cowboys and the Giants or I mean the Colts so even if they drop they split games with the Eagles they beat the they split games with the loss. They'll say they'll beat the commanders twice. That's only, and the Vikings game, maybe they lose to them. So there's two losses there.

They'd obviously have to beat the Cowboys for this take to pay off. Right, right. Yeah. You know what's crazy about Davel, guys, is to see what he's done with this team is based on what perception was. Like, there was a lot of chatter in the NFL circles that it took so long for him to get an opportunity because he lacks general leadership skills, he's immature, not super like punctual. It doesn't have that administrative quality that head coaches have.

Right. And so for him to so quickly turn around a team and change a culture is very weird. If you even look at his resume, there was a point in his career where he was, he had a new job every year or every other year. Right. He's with the Jets for a year. Then we went to Cleveland for a year. Then the Dolphins for a year.

Then the Chiefs for year. Like literally four years in a row, he couldn't keep a free year. your job and then takes it demotion to go back to new england where he started as a tight ends coach then goes to alabama as an oc slash quarterback coach then ends up with the bills as the offensive coordinator and then his whole career turns around from there but it's just weird to see like the narrative on who dable was and why it took him so long to break through versus what we're seeing every sunday just does not align with each other yeah it's it's very strange and I wonder if you mentioned him giving up play-calling duties.

I wonder if that has something to do with it. Just like he took that off his plate, and now it's allowing his brain to be fascinated on something else, which he clearly has that quality about him. It's crazy how effective we see teams and head coaches be when the head coach is not the play caller, and yet there's certain ones out there that are very stubborn with it. Siriani is another perfect example with the Eagles.

They're good. Yeah. Yeah. There's like these clear, it's like maybe, maybe you should be giving this up to somebody else and your team would be better. And they just insist on keeping it. Shanahan was another one. Stiphan. All these awesome play designers that just need to give up play calling duties to let their brain operate the whole team and not just what player are going to call them.

I fully agree with that. I really believe if you let Shanahan, you know, design the playbook. and then let somebody else call the plays. That offense would be so much better. All right. Steve, any thoughts on Chris's Giants' take? It's, I don't, and like you said, I don't hate it. If anything, like the Giants are, have played good, pretty solid defense,

and they've honestly haven't been, like, very turnover lucky, which could shift. I think they've had what, like, their top five and turnover-worthy throw percentage against them, yet they have one interception this year. Like, they've done the right things, and they're playing well. I just, I don't know,

after seeing Dallas's explosion on offense last week, and granted it's against the Bears' defense, or the Bears' defense isn't amazing, and Dallas's defense helped them out. but I don't know. I just Dallas is, I think Dallas's defense elevates them enough that like they should, they should finish out the season with maybe one or two losses. And the Giants, I just like the one score regression, I think is what I worry about with that.

You know, they just don't have the firepower on offense and what happens if they go down in a game, what happens with like things like that, whereas where I feel more confident with the Cowboys. to hang in any type of game with any team. Yes. I agree. That is definitely a big concern. I mean, they, I don't think Daniel Jones,

even with Daibel getting the most on him, is going to be a guy that's going to be able to put up a lot of points and when it comes time to do it. Right. So that is concerning. Now I'm supposed to deliver a bold tape. Yes. Finish off the story.

finish us off strong. Man. Let's do this. Seahawks are going to win the NFC West. And Gino is going to obviously be a lot for comeback player of the year. He'll also be an MVP finalist.

And that's my bold take. So Seahawks win NFC West. They make the playoffs. And we're going to see a continual mocking of Russell Wilson as a result. Like, did you guys see Tyler Lockett after this game? After this last win? Yes.

Oh, man. He buried Russ six feet deep. Oh, he passed it aggressively. He walked it back, though, didn't he? He said this had nothing to do. Yeah. Yeah, okay. Kate, Tyler.

Who didn't have to do it then? Who are you just randomly talking about there? Someone you currently play with? I don't think so. I mean, I feel like the Seahawks are taking every opportunity after every win to throw up. So then Gino's their QB in 2023. Oh, yeah. It's locked at this point.

Doesn't mean they won't acquire a youngster in the draft, perhaps. But Gino's played himself into some money, I think. Speaking of which, I mean, we haven't done a secure the bag segment lately, Steve. But I think Gino's firmly in that category now. Yeah. Remember, he was flirting with it the first time he brought it up. He's definitely secured the bag, though. he'd have to be really bad for the last eight, nine weeks here for him to unsecured the bag.

Yeah. He's played out of his mind. And Seattle's gotten that from a couple, like from Gino and then their rookie secondary guys have been really good again. Yeah, that's tricky too. Like, they basically flipped their entire secondary. And what coming into the season was like, oh, my goodness, what is going to happen here has turned into, like, one of the top two or three strengths of their team. Like, that's, it's a return to, at least at least in the secondary, like, they're building out a Legion of Boom part two here. Like, like, whoa, whoa, whoa.

I mean, it's, they're like. I don't know about that. But they're playing well, and if they keep progressing, like having a guy like Tariq Wollin is so helpful. And, like, their defense is going to keep them in games this year. Tariq Wollin's fascinating because he, like, I'll just be blunt. His college tape was terrible. I mean, he's raw.

He's just, he freaking sucked. But he's obviously got the tools. He's in a good system for his skill set. But, like, Chris, he was bad at the senior role, too, right? Yeah, he was, I mean, he got destroyed. Yeah, there was got, you know, guys that are currently not doing much in the NFL that looked very good from the senior bowl from matchups that he had one-on-one with him. Yeah.

At the senior ball. It is weird to see how good he's played. I mean, it's almost like Pete Carroll has experience with a raw athletic cornerback who is rangy and, you know, just needed to be coached up and maybe a better system fit for him. freaky athlete, etc. I mean, like that, like, but that, like, that's been fun to watch. And then, yeah, Gino. I honestly love that take.

I think it's totally plausible. And I, like, honestly, it's funny how far we've come in eight weeks from if you had said that in, before week one, people would have, I mean, people would have lost their mind and called you in. Steve, there was people convinced Drew Locke was going to eventually take over the starting job. Which, like, in retro, hilarious in retro. Yeah, hilarious for sure. Chris, what do you think of the Seahawks winning NFC West take? I mean, yeah, it's not crazy. So then I would take it you have the Rams not making the playoffs.

Correct. And the Niners. I think the Rams are spiraling badly right now. Yeah, that's, I think that's totally fair. And then the nineers, it's going to be, they'd have to get that, it's going to be tough, That third wild card spot for the NFC is going to be tricky because of the three NFC East teams with Dallas, New York, and Philly. So San Francisco could sneak in.

They're probably the favorite. Yeah, the Giants play Philly twice still, right? Yeah. So that could be a casualty for the Giants simply for the fact they have to play the best team twice. They're not missing the playoffs, though. Like they'd have to... Completely fall apart.

Yeah, they'd have to really fall apart. So yeah, I don't think that's crazy at all. I mean, I probably think San Francisco is a better team than Seattle. But I also believe that Shanahan can make some really boneheaded in-game decisions that cost them some games here and there along the way. And Pete Carroll seems to, I mean, Pete Carroll looks like one of the smartest head coaches right now in the NFL. He's been so doubted too. Yeah, like, I 100% was not somebody that thought Pete Carroll had this in him.

I don't know if I was ever like he's terrible, but I think he's shut up any critics he could possibly have. Maybe he runs the ball too much is like the only thing you can say. But when you have the rest of your team playing that it's playing, it's hard to really critique you. So yeah, I don't think that's, I don't think that's hard at all. I just have just to finish off if it was if you feel like we've tied off on Seattle I have one final question to finish off the show all right let's do it just like talking about Seattle made me think about it I one more bold take is I think I think the Rams win more than seven games this year I don't think that's bold I don't think the Rams I'm right there with you they look I pulled up their schedule I've I've I they're what are the three and five right now three and four three three and four and four and they have they go bucks cardinals saints chiefs seahawks raiders packers broncos chargers seahawks i feel confident about them in none of those games saints probably the only one i think they have a legit shot to

like that might be the only game they're favored in Yeah. The Rators? Oh, yeah, Raiders. I mean, even then, like, Raiders, I mean, well, last week was miserable, but they've shown sparks of life. The Rams offense, I'm, like, genuinely concerned that we're seeing, like, we already saw the peak of their offense and it's going downhill.

And it's going downhill fast. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, if Cup is severely hurt too, this is going to be a problem. Yeah. So, yeah, I just, like, looking at it, I hadn't thought about the Rams much lately, just because they have been kind of middle of the road. You know, nothing crazy has happened around them in any of that. But, like, looking at their schedule, the Rams are, it's a dangerous spot for the rest of the year

and going forward for years after. Like, they might not win more than seven games this year. And then you're staring down the barrel of a potentially injured Matthew Stafford, aging roster, no draft picks. It's, it's like, the future is ugly for Los Angeles. Selfishly speaking, Steve. Love it. I love it. If the Rams do finish with seven wins or less, that puts the lines with that second pick close to top 10 again, right?

Yeah. Top 15 for sure. Yep. So selfishly speaking, I would be very, very, very happy if the Rams do completely fall apart. Yeah, it'd be the dream scenario and you would, you know, it would eliminate or I guess it would just set up the lines to be in a position where all excuses are. the window and it's time to perform time to show up next year for which i think everybody's expecting but either way i like good thing the rams got their super bowl last year because uh they it's a tough future ahead of them yep um cool chris any closing thoughts before i tie a bow on

this pod no i think we've covered a lot um we'll we'll have to check back and see which of these predictions was most close to happening by the year end if they don't happen. And listeners hold us accountable as well. Accountability, as I've been told, is barren in this industry. But hey, listen, guys, listeners, thank you so much for listening. I do want to give you an update on the data stuff. We are, you know, the three of us are constantly grinding. We have a team of charters that grind with us.

and we're getting close to some type of launch of a data product. I'm not going to put a date on it, but we're getting very close. But even without that, there is some insane content coming out on the site, kind of showcasing what we're capable of with the data that we have. I know there was a new article posted yesterday, Chris. It's basically an article with a bunch of charts in it. It's really, really good. Everyone should check it out at FantasyPoint.com.

I believe it is not paywalled currently. So if you are not a current subscriber, you can get on there. You can check out the article, and it will probably inspire you to give us your entire bank account. So please, please do that. Yeah, again, thanks for listening. I am your host, Brett Whitefield. This is Stephen Arorke and Chris Weck. Thank you so much for listening.

We are out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite. platform and come join the roster at fantasy points.com.