Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Take Talk Episode 21

Episode Date: November 11, 2022

Fantasy Points' own Chris Wecht (ChrisWechtFF) joins hosts Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) and Steven ORourke (@callmesteveo7) to review Thursday night's game, talk about the fall season of epic TV shows, redraft the 2021 and 2020 QB classes, and preview a juicy Week 10 slate. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome into another episode of the Take Talk podcast. I am your host, Brett Whitefield with my co-host, Stephen O'Rourke. And for guest Friday, we have our favorite guests back yet again. please welcome to the show Chris Wecht. What's up, guys?

What's going on? While we're recovering from being bludgeon to death with bad quarterback play last night, so. Classic Thursday night football. Has there ever been such a Thursday night football game as the P.J. Walker versus Marcus Marriona in the rain. I felt like we were watching an AFL game or something or XFL, like. And they warned us that the weather was going to. to be bad, but I didn't think that that would lead to this bad of quarterback play.

Well, no, and bad weather doesn't excuse poor decision-making either, right? Yeah, and poor as being kind, too. Yeah. So we charted seven turnover-worthy throws in this game, and all seven of them were not just inaccurate passes, Steve. They were the worst types of decisions you can make, especially Mario's four. for himself and they were just every one of them were

head scratchers like what what is actually happening right now and the best part is he tried to add another one to the list but he got tackled first like what what was the what was the you know he's escaping from Louvo gets tripped up last minute

thinks what if I barrel roll and throw this ball it can only go well right but you know what all of his plays like that were of that variety. They were all out of structure where he's trying to create something with his feet,

breaking the pocket, forcing guys to miss in the backfield and then just launch an absolute prayer yolo ball. It's like, yeah, screw it. We want to give Tom Brady the division. We're trying to lose. So let's just chuck this baby downfield

and see what happens. That's the takeaway from last night is Tom Brady, it just is a reminder that sometimes to be the best, you need skill, but you also need luck. Right. Like, the fact that Atlanta is the team they're contending with is hilarious. Yes, Marcus Mariona, Andy Dalton, and PJ Walker is his competition to win this day. Right.

It's like, if you can't get that done, then, wow. Oh, my gosh. That, I did. I was, like, sitting there watching the game last night and early, for, charting and through my head all I could think was like these teams should not like Atlanta should not have four wins. The fact that they have four wins is absurd. They're just not like I mean, they're an okay constructed football team. It's just Mariotta is just legitimately bad. Yep. Like we can officially say that. Is he the, is he your, if you had to pick QBs, is he the last

pick right now in the league from the start at current starting kvys well are we putting like ellinger and p j walker into the mix or tyler heineke if they're starting this sunday in week 10 yeah i don't think he's the last pick but he's close i mean after last night i certainly like either want to put cement blocks on his feet and say either throw the ball or throw it away because like because like you said a lot of, I mean, he obviously makes things happen to his feet, but like all of his turnover worthy throws came from out of structure. All right, let's do this. Mariotta or PJ Walker straight up. I'd rather PJ Walker. I'd rather a PJ. I would too. I'd rather a PJ Walker. He at least has the arm talent to make stuff happen. 70 yards in the air down

the field. And they're pretty equally athletic as well. Yeah. Okay, Marioita or Heineke. Heinkees Heinke I think I'd rather have Marioota Really? Dude, if Heineke didn't

or almost beat the Buccaneers in the playoffs two years ago no one would think he's anything He's legitimately terrible But he's I think he's better than Marriota

Case Keenom or Marcus Marriota Assuming Case Keenum starts this week He's not going to But if he had to I'm just like Is Marcus even Would he even be the best backup in the league? I'd probably

we take Marioota there. Keenham's got to be. You've been seen Keenum. Keenum is basically Tua without the accuracy. Yeah. And just like age, I'm thinking. I mean, he's on his last, he's got to be on his last leg here.

Davis Mills or Marcus Marioada. I mean, I'm going to run the wildcat. Give me, Give me Drake London as the Wildcat QB, and we'll call it. I bet you, I bet you Cordero Patterson could make the offense fine. Oh, yeah. That's a wild. We'll throw him at a Wildcat quarterback, and let's just see what happens.

They're basically running that anyway. Yeah, true. All right. You take Mills? All right. Last one. Russell, Wilson or Marcus? All right.

Well, at the current. At the current contract with what I have to pay them. True. That's a great point, actually. Value for value. I can at least get out from under Marioata after this year. Yeah. I'm staring down the barrel of two more Russell Wilson years if I go with him.

That's so true. That's too. If you factor in what you had to. That's, yeah. That's another good boy. All right. Let's go on. Hey, before we get into football stuff, guys,

I wanted to rehash the TV show talk that we've kind of started the podcast with like, you know, 20 episodes ago. Right. And then we've added to it since then. Yeah. But now that we've got multiple shows wrapped up and one about to wrap up, I think there's some good good stuff here. So the three big ones right now were Game of Thrones. The what is the actual name of the throw? I just called Game of the Dragon.

House of the Dragon, which almost sounds like a kung fu movie, but whatever. It could be a Bruce Lee movie. Yeah. It actually might. I mean, it might be a movie. Yeah, that might be a Bruce. So you have House of the Dragon. You've had Lord of the Rings, the Rings of Power.

Yeah. There we go. The Rings of Power. And then you've had Star Wars Andor. We've been very blessed to have two great shows in Game of Thrones and Andor. and then Lord of the Rings we finished it and it was terrible and I've advised everyone on the staff here at Fantasy Point

to not watch it but Kristen listen to me Chris you're halfway through how are you feeling about Lord of the Rings? I mean it's just it's just there put it on and I'm kind of like I don't really know why I'm watching this but I've already started it might as well finish it out at this point just nothing really matters in that show

it's like yeah like a kind of constantly forget what characters or what and what because just nothing grabs you really it's just kind everything's just kind of there and going on there's no yeah there's like the greater story arc doesn't really like feel impactful even though you know we kind of know what the story is but yeah nothing nothing really works in that show so there's a prominent hollywood leaker out there who has gotten a lot of leaks like months before they happened correctly I don't want to spread speculation, but he is leaking that the show is done so poorly with audience that Prime is actually looking to completely scrap it already after spending a billion dollars on it and just completely reboot and go with, they're going to still do a Lord of the Rings show, but they're just going to completely reboot it. Like, new storyline, new cast, everything.

They have not started filming season two yet for what it's worth. So they still have time to make that decision. I mean, that would be crazy. I think like if you have the money for it, I guess like take it. Because like the, everybody knows that like the lore and all of that is there for Lord of the Rings. Like it can be, it can be and should be able to be done. I guess like if you have the money for it and like let's say, you know, round two they nail it like five years from now, everybody forgets rings of power.

Oh, for sure. that's why they just they need new showrunners new writers i think when they spent like over a billion dollars on season one most of that billion was buying the rights from the tolkien family so i'm pretty sure those rights stay that i know they bought basically the they can make any story in the second age so in lord of the rings there's three main ages the first age second age and third age this is super nerdy we'll get out of this discussion in a minute there with me um so i think they're allowed to make any story work that's within the second age. So they can,

there's a lot of content in there that they could, you know, get out of what they paid for. So they can still use that money in a good way. But, yeah, show is terrible, though.

On the other hand, Andor has probably been my favorite show I've watched since the original Game of Thrones. It has been, this past episode, this last week was absolutely incredible. Super inspiring. But for those of you haven't watched it,

I would check it out. It's about the spark of the rebellion against the empire, which is always a good storyline. Yeah. Yeah, it's on my list. I haven't gotten to it. HBO's been, I mean, with House of the Dragon and then HBO puts out solid, like, documentary work that I always tune into. Like, they just came out with their part two of the vow, which is, like, talking about the, like, basically cult, like, thing with this guy named. Keith Reneery and he's on trial and everything.

It's pretty wild, honestly, if you're into documentaries like that. It's kind of a wild situation. But Game of Thrones, I mean, the nice thing was that Game of Thrones was Game of Thrones again. It was. I was so pleasantly surprised it didn't disappoint me because the expectations for that show were monumental. And they nailed it, I thought. It was Game of Thrones, but also totally different in so many ways.

Right. We've never watched Game of Thrones where you focused on, you know, five to ten characters. Usually you're bouncing between five to ten story arcs alone. Yeah. Right. Yeah, so I remember when we first started watching the season, I was being, I was a little critical of the fact that we weren't getting a ton of character development, especially with some of these massive time jumps that were happening. But then you very quickly start to realize that you're not even too. the main story yet. They just have to get you there. They're kind of just filling in some of the

back details about why things are the way they are. So that way when you get to the main story, which is the dance of dragons, which is what season one basically ends with. No spoilers, but that's basically what it ends with. As we get into season two, you're going to see, I think, a lot more of those really, really good character developments that you're used to from Game of Thrones. Yeah. Which there was times of Game of Thrones where you legitimately had 15 to 20 main characters being developed at a time. It was pretty nuts. Even small characters like The Hound or Brianna of Tarth.

They had their own arcs, but they're not even part, like a huge part of the main storyline, you know? So pretty. And that's actually why George R. Martin can't finish the books. Yeah.

Because he's got, I think he's got like 24 open storylines that he has to wrap in two books. Like, good luck. He just said recently in an interview that he's about, three quarters of the way done with this last book. No, the second is the last book. Yeah.

And it's, in his words, it's by far the longest of the series. And he's only three-fourths of the way through. It's already longer than the longest book. It's like sometimes on this podcast we do that. You know? Yeah, but I'm excited for your season two.

The way season one ended was freaking awesome. It was really cool. So I'm very excited to see. I've been having dreams where I'm a dragon. I'm a dragon rider. Like you know

like Prince James' dragon's name is Caraxies. And I've been riding Caraxies in my dreams. What do you think that's a metaphor for in your life? I was going to say that's going to have some weird. I'm a wild man, Chris. That's what it means. I'm a dragon rider. I'm bred for combat, you know?

I don't know. I have no idea what it means, but I should go see a dream interpreter. See what's going on there. All right, cool. So TV's been good, is the summary, except for Lord of the Rings. Don't watch it. Yeah, let's get into an interesting conversation. Chris, you kind of brought up on a call earlier.

It was like, if you put a bunch of QBs, from the last few draft classes and redrafted them all. How would that draft go? And at first I didn't really want to talk about it because I think it's pretty obvious you would probably take Burrow, Herbert, and Tua over anyone from last year's class so far, but it's still worth kind of figuring out

where all those guys would land. Yeah, I think it's, my initial thought was like, oh, yeah, it's definitely switched up. But then when you really start to think about it, those two classes in particular, the Burrow, Herbert, Tua, and then the Lawrence Wilson, Lance classes, they really probably haven't even changed. Like, you pretty much take him where they would go, but for two totally different reasons.

The Burrow Herbert to a class, it's like all of these guys have been good. It's really about who ends up winning more games in their career and how far they make it. Right. Whereas the following class, it's like all of these guys have been meh at best and who has a chance to kind of leapfrog everybody and take that next step. Right. So it's weird that, no, I probably wouldn't really change anything, but also for two totally different reasons.

That's a great point. So, yeah, that Burrow Herbert to a class, like, that has a chance to be a really, really good, like those three guys should be, you know, in the conversation of top 10 for a while, presumably the next decade or so. So really it is going to come down. Like how we judge those guys will be based on how much they win. in how many accolades they acquire along the way you know all pros pro bowls you know passing milestones stuff like that where this other class like you're just looking for one of those five

guys to step up and establish themselves and oh you know we can't forget jalen hurts from that class too right he was the borough class that's what i was you're going to say wasn't yeah or no i think he might have been a year before or no no yep that was him yeah yeah But it is interesting because Tua is a great example of how fast things can change for a quarterback. Because, too, because. Yeah. I mean, Tua, like this time, this time last year, moving into last offseason, like the conversation in NFL, like within NFL, like, within NFL media and all that was like, is he even their starter of the future? Like, do they, like, should they start looking at who they're going to replace him with?

you know, they had the whole Tom Brady, you know, whatever that situation was. And now it's now we're, it's just everybody kind of, everybody loves the Miami offense. And Tua is in a great position. And, you know, obviously everybody still has their opinions of Tua, but you can't deny the fact that he's putting up passing numbers at a great pace and probably the best pace in the NFL. And so, like, it's interesting because so many people want to give up hope on some of these. guys from the Lawrence Wilson Lance class. But and, you know, there probably are some guys we should give up on, but it just shows that sometimes all it takes is a year and a better supporting cast.

And true. And then like that allows the quarterback to kind of take off. Shoot, sometimes it takes a game, you know, like I was, like I thought Justin Fields was complete cheeks. And then this week changed my mind a little bit. Right. And a lot of it just comes down to his coaching staff got the right stuff in place to make him successful. So it changes your opinion of him.

Yeah, it makes you think maybe in it. I don't know if he'd flip it yet, but you're like, oh, maybe he will be better than Zach Wilson. Or, you know, he went before Mack Jones. But Mac Jones has looked terrible recently. So it's like, all right, maybe that was the right. Whereas when the season started it was probably the opposite. it. So things can change very quickly. For sure, when I evaluate that class as a whole, like every, every game, every moment they've

had, I would say Mack Jones has probably been the best of the five by a pretty decent margin, actually. The problem is his recency bias, and he's played really bad lately. But Zach Wilson's been playing that bad the entire time. Justin Fields has been mostly that bad the entire time. Trevor Lawrence has been, had definitely moments that bad. So it's like, yeah if i had to pick one of that class that i'm like all right i have to be out on a guy it's probably wilson at this point i would agree it's just like it all he's shown the least ceiling i feel like out of all of those guys and uh yeah and out of all those guys like zach wilson's the one guy who you look at his offense and it's like okay you have weapons he does you have legit weapons

to utilize like garratt wilson breaking out like tyler conklin and uzama not are solid receiving tight ends, Corey Davis, I mean, supporting cast-wise, Wilson. Why, you shouldn't even mention Elijah Moore. Yeah. Or Gary Wilson. No, he said, I said Gary Wilson right away. I mean, I'm not at offense right now. I'd love for Elijah Moore to be involved, but, you know, Elijah Moore also agrees with me

that he'd like to get more involved. But, I mean, it's like, that's the thing is, I, who knows if it's Wilson's fault, but still, like, Wilson doesn't have the excuses, the ready-made excuses that some of those other guys from that class have. Yeah. Well, I mean, speaking of Elijah Moore, though, they are moving into the slot. So, you know, like, let's just do obvious things and take credit for it. There's no reason that ever should have changed.

You're telling me the guy who dominated in the slot in college. a slot receiver? Weird. I'm shocked by this information. You're telling me the 5 foot 8 receiver isn't a true axe? No way. Who could have seen that coming? But this is why the Garrett Wilson pick.

I loved Garrett Wilson. I thought he was a top 10 player in the draft, but it didn't make a ton of sense because him and Elijah Moore are so similar. You know? Like really, from build and athleticism metrics to skill sets. They're very similar players. Chris Alave would look great on that offense right now. Oh, my gosh. Yeah. And the best thing is you could probably swap those two and both teams are better off.

Right. Like New Orleans is like maybe net zero, maybe a little bit positive gain. And then New York, like now their offense is built in every player is where they should be. Right. Yeah. For sure. All right. So if we were to redraft the Burrow Herbert class, you'd still go in that order, right? Burrow Herbert, Tua. Well, Tua, I totally forgot. Tua went before Herbert. That's right.

He went fifth, and then Herbert went six? Yeah. That's right. Okay, I would flip those two for sure. And then Hertz went in the second round. So I guess you kind of have to include him, although he's definitely not, wasn't drafted around that group of guys. Yeah, I would go Burrow, Herbert Hertz, Tua, probably.

when and Hertz would have a chance to pass Herbert in my mind. Yeah, that's kind of where I'm at, I think. And shoot, and Tua has a chance too. I shouldn't, I'm not counting him out by any means. Yeah, all four of them are in the conversation. Yeah, I think, I think you could make a case for Herbert over Burrow. Like if you're going off of from now until, the end of their careers.

Like, I don't know, Herbert has, Herbert's talent, I mean, has shown through. And for the love of God, can we just get the man an offensive coordinator for once just so we can make this finally evaluation and see if he's, if he is that guy or not because we're not getting, like, you're getting robbed of the chance to find that out. But you probably, you probably do go.

But I, it, it would take me, it would take me the full. time to decide between Herbert and Burrow personally just because I think Herbert is like a top three talent. I think Borough is a much more accurate passer than Herbert is and he's he throws a way better deep ball even though he doesn't have quite the arm Herbert has. Herbert has a freaky arm like he can make throws that a lot of guys can't make but it's like those are those one-ish plays a game really worth it i think i'd take throw-for-throw

over herber every time um and burrow's deep ball is freaking incredible so it's like his arm his arm isn't limiting him at all that's he's unlimited i'm like russ so yeah herbert is a special talent though i think the qb that has the best chance to rise based off where they were drafted is definitely hurts yes and the qb that has the best chance to fall, assuming there's no what we know about their current coaching staffs and team and everything is definitely is easily Herbert. Yeah. Yeah.

Like to, like, to a, I don't think, I think he's kind of where he should be. Yes. Like I don't see a lot of movement either way, really. And do you think that is, do you think the reason for that is because of his supporting cast, or is it that like we know what, we know exists? exactly what Tua is. And like, you know,

like we know his ceiling and that. Like, which do you think that is? I think it's both. I think it's. Yeah. Yeah. Combination.

He is. So that limits his ceiling. We know, but we know his current coaching staff and receiving weapons and everything is going to keep him from ever like being a bust at this point. Right. Yeah. Kind of.

I sort of think about it in the terms of which I compared Burrow and Herbert. Like is that one throw a game, that one special throw a game, worth taking Herbert overboro. What kind of goes to Tua with the arm strength issues? It's like he's so good at everything else, getting that ball out in time and the short and intermediate stuff, throwing accurate passes with the supporting cast,

would it be worth sacrificing maybe a few underthrown deep balls a game for somebody else? I don't think it would. I think, you know, McDaniel is basically running a souped up version of the San Francisco offense with insane speed. Tua is the perfect guy for that. Brady would have been awesome in it, too, to be fair.

I mean, thinking about it, like, Brady's throw-for-throw accuracy is incredible. And, like, time to throw, like, is up is right there where he can get the ball out that fast. And he can actually throw a really nice deep ball. Yeah. But. We did forget to include Jordan Love in this discussion. I don't know where he should get it anymore. I it's fun did you did you guys see the devondre Campbell um yes yeah he's a linebacker he means

nothing to me like bro you have no idea i mean from what we've seen from jordan love i don't think we've seen anything that other than like he he's athletic he has a strong arm but i don't think we've seen anything yet from his time on the field that shows that he's anything yet like he looked like he looked like a back he kind of he just looked like a backup when he when he came in he was not like oh you can see like you can see it almost getting there it was like yeah you can see the athleticism and you can see where they got how they got here but long term I'm not I have no reason to believe that there's that there's not much there long term yeah and from a team building standpoint, if that staff was convinced Jordan Love could be a top 15 guy even,

you probably don't resign Rogers, right? You go with the cheaper quarterback, save money, keep Devante Adams. I mean, that's what they- Am I wrong in saying that? Like, that's what they did before, right? Yeah, like if, obviously you know he's not going to be a one-to-one to Rogers, but if he can give you, you know, what you think is adequate QB play, you probably go with a cheaper guy when your quarterback's 40 years. old or whatever he is 39 or something yeah so what I'm saying is if if love was that guy if the staff believe that they would have already made moves accordingly and they haven't so it tells me that they're not very high on him either especially yeah because sorry let's go ahead they're they're really

caught in a pickle right now with rogers not looking like his old self and and trying to get out of that contract and love's fifth year option is up after this season I believe or it's coming up Yeah, this is his fourth year this year, right? Yeah, so yeah. So they've got a really, they're in a real tight spot at their QB position, money-wise, right now. Yeah, and like it was, it was the off-season to do it. Like, everybody was sniffing around Rogers, quarterbacks were going all over the place. Like, if there was ever a time to unload Rogers and take that step, like, last off-season was it.

Yep. I agree. All right. So the other class, the Trevor Lawrence class, any movement there. Like, I probably, we still haven't seen anything from Lance. And I wasn't high on it. He was my fifth rated quarterback coming out in the draft. He hasn't done anything to change my mind.

However, Zach Wilson's been so bad that I feel like he automatically goes to the bottom. Because I'm almost more comfortable with what I don't know about Lance than what I do know about Wilson. Yeah, that's fair. I think that's totally reasonable because at least you can bank on the upside. Yeah. Does Lawrence move from number one in any scenario? No, I mean, I made the statement that Jones has been significantly better than all of them in the sum of their parts, but I still like Lawrence's tools and upside there.

I think if he can get it figured out, he will be the best guy in the class still. so I probably go Lawrence 101 still yeah I don't I don't I don't feel good about making a stand on any of them yeah yeah not really at all Jones has been so it's the last four weeks or whatever been so weird it's like I don't know when you look at the numbers though he does stand out over these guys like higher wild throw rate lowest turnover worthy throw rate highest adjusted completion percentage highest pass rating

last year he led all rookies in ADOT like the dude has been significantly better and I think this year I like right now I partly put some of the blame on him but also I can't imagine it's great operating a Matt Patricia Joe judge led offense like I that's a good point actually You've heard rumors about like opposing teams calling out plays before they're happening, like things like things like that. I think we're about to see a kind of a collapse on that side of the ball for New England, which is a shame because their defense is very good. But yeah, I like I think that that is limiting Jones. And honestly, I hope it doesn't make him take a step back and like processing and things like that. Yeah, I think actually you swayed me.

I think I do, even though Mac Jones doesn't look great, his numbers are still much better than everybody in some cases, in some categories, even Lawrence and some not. But so like I would, I think I would actually take, you know, Lawrence is still the first. And then I think Mac Jones is probably the second one. And like what you just said, Steve, about the OCs right now. I don't want to hold that against him.

I would not be shocked at all if next year he had a different O.C. And it was like, oh, Mac Jones is good again. Like we've seen Matt Patricia run an offense before and it's not pretty. Yeah, he's, he's like middle, he's NFL average, which is good for this class in pretty much every statistical category. He's adjusted completion percentage is 74%. It's right in the middle. His completion percentage over expectation is negative 1.8, but it's close to zero. So fine for this class.

So, yeah, everything about him is pretty average, but that's above average for this class. Right. Right. And also, like, he doesn't have a Justin Fields level bad supporting cast, but he doesn't have, he's got a collection of wide receiver twos and threes between Parker and, like, Jacoby Myers is a nice player, but he should not be your number one receiver year over year. I think Mac Jones's weapons are worse. Than Fields?

Yeah. You don't think so? Oh, especially with Clayton. Well, Mooney would be, well, that's true. Mooney would probably be the Patriots number one easily. Yes. But Comette and Henry is like a wash to me. Sure.

I think Myers, for a young QB, is probably more valuable than Mooney is, though. Maybe, but the... But, yeah, the... If the Cibb gets it going, I think Mooney is the guy you would want over my... Yes, yeah. To your point, though, I mean... it's bad. Like, Devante Parker is a one-trick pony at this point.

He can make plays for you, but you need a number one and a good, you know, possession guy like Jacoby Myers to make that work. Yeah. So, the hope in Taekwon Thornton becomes that guy, which... I was going to say the rookies that Vilas Jones and Taekwant, they're very similar in that they're kind of burners in college. You're just kind of seeing if they can put it together elsewhere.

Yeah. Well, I mean, the difference between the two, really, is Velas Jones just got his dentures replaced last week where... Taekwan Thornton just became of age to drink alcohol. So it's a little different. Thornt, when he's been on the field, he's actually looked good, though. It's been a big surprise. Yeah, he has.

I know he's had trouble being on the field, and some of that's Belichick being weird with rookies, but some of it is he was a little banged up as well. If there's a guy that could sway who has the better weapons, it's him. Because even the running backs are like pretty, like I think Cleoherbert's very good. Stevenson is probably a little bit better, but I don't think it's much of a gap at all. Harris is definitely like a David Montgomery type.

Right, right. Very similar player. So, yeah, that's interesting, interesting to talk about. I mean, Mac Joe, honestly, it's, it's funny because Mac Jones feels like he's very, and he's very similar to Tuo, which is also funny because they come from the same, they also came from the same system, same college. but like as far as like long-term what we have with both of them, I feel like it's kind of the same where it's like,

you know their limitations, but you know what they can do well. They're not going to, they're not going to be the ones that are going to make an insane play to win a game or anything like that. But if you put the right people around them, they can help make it happen. Yeah, I think that's fair.

So that said, I mean, Mac Jones was my pre-draft. number three QB in that class and I think I'm probably either bumping him to two or keeping them at three to be honest so Wilson will go down to five for me Lance would go to four Fields would bump to three and I think Jones had bumped to two for me and I'm keeping Lawrence at number one yeah I don't I don't have any argument with that I man I wish we would have seen something from Lance at this point but we just really haven't had the opportunity to make he said what he's had less and a hundred

150 dropbacks. It's like you. Yeah. Well, yeah. Not a lot of tape there. Well, he didn't have any last year, right? Like 10? Very little.

It's not any like, or yeah, he did have the one game against Houston. Yeah, he had the one game against Houston. Just, I mean, that this conversation could completely flip if what we're seeing in Chicago continues to materialize and like works. now last week could be just a complete flukey type of thing and this week you know something like if he has a bad game against Detroit I think we walk back a lot of the conversations that we were having that like immediately walk back a lot of the conversations we were having this week yeah because like this it's like set up for like this is the next

step in his development because like Detroit is like they've given up the fourth most they give up the fourth most yards per attempt on scrambles and the most and they've had the most scramble attempts against them so like if there's ever an opportunity for like fields to use that and you know we saw what they did we saw what detroit did against boot action against it against Seattle they got absolutely torched by it so like i imagine we'll see a lot of like boots rollouts from fields and if we don't i think if we don't see like the next step or at least like similar to what we saw last week and if you like that if chicago ends up losing the game or whatever like i think all of that all of the conversation that we've had this

week about how everybody's like super excited about feels i think it like almost immediately gets set like walking back a little bit and people are like okay maybe we jump the gun a little bit good time for them to institute this new offense against miami and detroit back oh yeah 100 Although Detroit has been playing a lot more zone lately, which Steve and I talked about. I think it's going overlooked a little bit. I think a lot of people are assuming Detroit is going to roll out a ton of man like they were earlier. No, they've since the by week, they've completely changed. And it is working a little better.

They're getting slowly getting improvements there. But they're still bad against boot. I mean. Yeah. And I mean, they'd be crazy to play man after like what Jalen hurts. did to them with Philly. Yeah, the problem is, like, what are the best, one of the most rich environments to play man in?

It's probably when you know the team has bad receivers. Right? So, like, if you're confident you can man up Akuta and Mooney, which is, or, I said that backwards, if you're confident you can man up Claypool with, and Mooney with Akuta and Jacobs, maybe you do play a little more man because it allows you to commit resources elsewhere,

but then you got to worry about the scramble. I was just saying that's where it's interesting is that Calvin Shepard is on record saying that a QB spy is an absolute waste of a player. So I would know, yeah, I would never spy. Yeah, so I mean, it'd be interesting to see what they did like within a man scheme to kind of... Well, you have to commit more pass rushers to the situation.

and you have to have past rush lane discipline. Yes. Which they did not have against Hertz. Hutchinson and Harris both were awful in that game in that regard. And their scramble attempts in scramble numbers show that they haven't improved too much. Yeah, exactly. Like it's been pretty consistent. I think they had, you know, somewhere around like 10.

They've had like 12 the first four weeks and then 10 scramble attempts, the second four weeks. So it's been pretty even distribution. Steve, but they play different teams. Aaron Rogers converted a third and 18 with his legs. Aaron Rogers, who is 39 years old and doesn't run the ball anymore. We need to move off this topic. Otherwise, I'll start going on a rant here. I kid.

No, but yeah, it's ridiculous. So, like, if Aaron Rogers with his, you know, 4-9-0 speed can do it, good Lord, what can Joe, what Justin Fields at 4-3 is a scary sight walking in this week to Detroit. Right. Yeah. Good time to segue, though. So typically the last few Fridays, we haven't really spent a lot of time previewing the

coming week because the slates have been awful. But Chris made me aware this morning that, hey, this slate's actually pretty good. And there's a bunch of games that matter. And there actually is. What do we end up counting? One, two, three, four, five. And honestly, I think if you expand it to, games where a team could basically either playoff's hopes die like Jacksonville, Kansas City,

or Denver, Tennessee. Cleveland, Miami. Yeah, Cleveland, Miami. Cleveland has to win that game. Like we said in the last pod, they need two of the next three before Watson comes back to stay in it. Yeah. There's really only like two or three games that don't mean something this week. So it's actually, we are getting later to the season.

So obviously games are going to start to matter more. But in general, the way that the teams are matched up this week, there's a yeah there's like four or five that like really matter and also a good handful of that like hey like your your season's probably done if you don't win this game right so let's spend a little bit of time talking about those um we'll start sunday morning in germany first german game to be played this is pretty cool we got seattle taking on the tampa bay buccaneers this game for sure matters seattle's trying to stay in first place of their division Tampa Bay also is trying to

to increase their foothold in that division which they're currently winning with the losing record this game has a ton of playoff implications we're talking hosting a playoff game is on the line potentially I mean I know it's still really early but this I mean you and your division that's the privilege of winning your division is you now get to host a

playoff game so I don't know what are we thinking here it's a tough one for Tampa Tampa Tampa's biggest issue is by far been, you know, Brady running a functional offense and a big part of that issue is they're giving up. They don't give up a lot of official pressures because Brady is so intellectually smart that he knows, like, when I need to get rid of a ball. So, like, he's got a super low time to throw. They're, like, one of, by pressure rate standards, they're one of the best. Actually, I think, yeah, they are the number one team in pressure rate over the past, over the course of the season.

only giving up pressure is 18-ish percent of the time. Not to put you on the spot, Chris, but you happen to know how their replacement guard is played? I know they replaced Godkey two weeks ago with a backup. He didn't fly with them to Germany. So he was not playing this week either. Does Seattle have a player that can take advantage of that? That's what I was trying to basically get into.

Seattle is not the best pressure team by far. So like if there was a game for Brady to potentially get things going a little, this might be in it. Seattle's been playing better on the back end in the secondary than they were to start the season. Yeah. But they really haven't gotten their pass rush going by any means. So yeah, I mean, that's pretty much where this game lies, I think. I think in the other side of the ball, the Seattle offense versus the buck's defense. I think they Tampa's getting much healthier.

They've got all of their starting corners back now, I think. But Gino's been awesome. So like I think they'll be fine offensively. I don't know. Right. Yeah. I don't know if they'll light them. I don't see any reason to think they'll light them up.

But I also don't think the bucks are going to be all to hold them to like under 14 points or something like that. one of the underrated things going on in this game too is Seattle does have this innate ability to find the run game at some point in the game sometimes it's in the form of big plays I know Walker hasn't consistent you know run for run hasn't consistently you know moved a lot but he does have the propensity for explosive plays and Tampa Bay's normally very good run defense has been a little suspect this year they have gotten run on in certain games So I'm curious to see if, you know, how Seattle toes that line between ball control and aggressive play calling. Because it's kind of they do have a really, seemingly a really good balance, right? Where it's like they do want to pound the rock and be physical, but they also dial up a lot of deep throws with Gino. And they work out. I mean, you got D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett's still playing at a very high level. I know Metcast playing through a bit of an injury right now, but I feel like if, if Tampa's,

of bay has a hard time stopping Kenneth Walker in the run game, it could be a long day for them on defense because that opens up, you know, that whole play action pass game that Seattle wants to use. And that's where I think that they might look to exploit Devin White, who has not been playing like the greatest this year. I could see them trying to, you know, like start to try to put him in conflict a little bit with like play action pounding the Rock. doing that and just getting guys behind in the middle. And like a lot, like, I feel like you could see a lot of overs in, like, in breaking routes for Seattle to try to get behind their linebackers and put Devin White in, like, in conflict just because he hasn't, he hasn't put a lot of good tape out this year. And so he's a guy, like, yeah.

I mean, that's, we're all the retrospective now, but I just think that, like, that could be a spot that they try and take care or take advantage of. do you think this is the game where we finally see the share percentage of the backfield duties between four net and rashad white flip because it's kind of been it's been mentioned for i feel like four or five weeks at this point of right people saying oh we heard the buck say they want to get rashad white more involved seattle is average against the run um so it's not like it's like this is a rushing matchup they need to take advantage of it by any things but four net is just looks so so slow. Well, White just gives you a little juice. He'll catch a ball and not fall down. Or not get tackled by the first guy that looks at him.

So that's the thing. They love Fournette in the passing game. If there was a, like, they seem more willing to give Rashad White carries, but not. It's because the pass pro issues. Not saying White has issues, but Brady has trust issues with past pro. Right. He needs to know his back is competent if he needs him to. be and then also just Brady hates when guys aren't in the right place and you know White's a rookie

let's just face it so but I do it's clearly transitioning though Chris I mean I do think White did have a couple catches this past week right did you not have two or three or maybe four just checking yeah so I do think there that swing is starting to happen I mean it's yeah it's mirror image to like Pittsburgh same type of situation situation for like for net looks completely out of it already naji harris is is in his second year in the league and we're saying he's old and dusty like i'm not saying no i'm not i'm not i'm not saying naji harris is old old and old dusty i'm saying that both backfields are at an impasse where like fat dusty he's better do you keep like do you keep just running this what like whatever you have

there in four net and harris do you keep running them knowing that guess what you're probably not going to get more than three yards of carry on a majority of your runs? Or do you try out the rookie and admit that maybe the guy that we all thought was the guy is not? Yeah, that's a good point. Another interesting fact, the two most, the two coverages that the Seahawks run the most, Brady has yet to throw a touchdown pass against them, just cover three and cover six. I think that might be more of a testament to just how not good

as receiver play has been this year. I was going to say, how many touchdowns has Brady thrown? Seven. And if you even throw the third coverage in there, which is covered two, he's only got one touchdown pass that gets covered two. But Seattle plays pretty good zone defense. You know, Brady, well, he's struggled in general, but he's definitely been a little meh against zone this year.

So I think that's something to watch. So if you had to take a team, who's winning this game, guys? I'm going to take the bucks. And I don't feel great about it. But I think that last second win against the Rams last week sparked something in Brady and the team a little bit. like his like yeah i think in his post game press conference the first thing he said was like that was effing awesome um like he's been so miserable and like he's just been looking for something

and godwin godwin in particular but also evans have just been like incredibly like they're so due for regression that with the way they've been playing and i just think at some point and whereas Seattle's secondary, their young corners have been playing out of their minds, especially given where they were drafted. They're due to get torched. Yeah. This feels like a game of regression to the meeting on all sides to me a little bit. I think you're spot on with that, to be honest.

I'm taking Brady and the bucks. I'm taking Seattle. I think that, I think Tampa Bay is not that great of a football team right now. I think like they have all the parts, but like right now they're just not a very good football team. And I think the like I understand where you're coming with coming from with that Rams take. But also the Rams are not a good football team either. Like I've I've seen it before where I've seen it before where a bad team beats a bad team and people think that it's potentially a spark for it. And it could be like I could be totally wrong.

I don't think that Tampa Bay is that good. They're going to win their division, but I think Seattle can put up points against them. And I don't think Tampa Bay will be able to keep up with it. Well, so if you say Seattle is going to beat them, their Falcons are right back in that division then. Oh, yeah, absolutely. I think that is 100% where we're at at 1 p.m. On Sunday, as we're staring down the barrel of, would they both be four and six? The Bucks would be four and six.

Yeah, they'd both be four and six. Yeah, we're staring at two four and six teams and wondering where the rest of their wins come from and how we might be looking at a seven win, seven to eight win football team in the playoffs. Yeah, not to linger in this game too long, but I don't care that the Rams are a bad team and the Bucks beat them. Sometimes that's what momentum is or momentum takes. The reality is the NFL is a collection of, like at some total of, Good NFL teams are beating bad NFL teams.

Even look at Seattle. Denver, the Lions, New Orleans. No, they lost New Orleans, actually. Arizona twice. These are teams Seattle's beat. They're not beating good teams either. They've beat a bunch of really bad teams. The only good team they've beat is the Giants.

And they've also lost to the Falcons. They've also lost to the Saints who suck. So, yeah. The Rams not being a good football team doesn't bother me at all. It's still a win is a win, and Seattle hasn't really beat anybody either. You're right, but my only counter is I've seen it. We've seen it from Seattle. I haven't really seen it from Tampa Bay.

Yeah. Fair enough. All right, what's Minnesota Buffalo? 1 p.m. slate game. Minnesota travels to Buffalo. This is a battle of number one seeds right now. Oh, no, no, Philly's number one seat, sorry. Yeah.

It's crazy that we're talking about a 7-1 Vikings team that got bamboozled by the number one-seat Eagles, and they're still seven, they haven't lost since. No. The bills, on the other hand, are dealing with a quarterback who has a torn UCL. I don't know. I don't think we know it's torn. Do we? Is that not what fantasy points own Edwin has said?

Oh, it's okay, you're right. It's not officially listed as a torn UCL, but it's a UCL injury. Yes. Side note, ligament injuries are usually tears, even if they're minor. But like a sprain is technically a tear. Yeah. But still, that could be problematic for them. If Josh Allen doesn't play, Minnesota's just, they're one bad football,

they're one bad football half away from being undefeated. like if you think about it. They're one bad half. Who knows what happens if they stay competitive in the first half of in Philly. But like also Minnesota is just a team of destiny this year. I message you guys that when the Josh Allen injury and potentially missing one game and it being the Minnesota game, like everything is breaking Minnesota's way this year. It's hilarious. Yeah, true.

Even the fact that they were able to secure such an elite talent like T.J. Hawkinson for the low price of a second. and third round pick. That's just a huge W for them. And they think that. I mean, Chris, you put out this week the design targets for T.J. Hawkinson compared to Justin Jefferson. I literally read nothing into that other than

Hawkinson doesn't know our playbook so we can dial up some screens and stuff to them to get him involved. You're probably right. Yeah. Yeah. It's worth monitoring, though. Yeah, for sure, worth monitoring. But so, okay, so how does that?

does this game play out though? Going on the road to Buffalo sucks. You're forgetting this is a case Keenham revenge game if John John, Josh Allen does not play. Oh. And Stefan Diggs. The two of all. Yeah, you're right.

True. The Minnesota miracle come back to break the hearts of their- I don't think Diggs actually has bad blood with Minnesota. I do think Keenham does, though. Keenham was very upset. They did not resign him after that season. because he felt like he played i mean that's like i've heard him talk about it it's he was very uh didn't understand that at all yeah so i'm not even i'm not even totally disappointed if josh allen

doesn't play this game i'd love to see case keanum light up his old team i'd love to see case keitham under throw stephan digs by 30 yards for a touchdown but yeah like you were saying how like how do you feel about this game with keanum probably being the starter we can say that at this point on Friday now? I honestly have no idea. I don't know. I don't think we know. Yeah, I don't think we know, but running, if we run with the assumption that Keenum plays, I, obviously Minnesota has more of a chance and isn't quite the favorite.

I think the line if Josh Allen doesn't start moved, it moved from like nine and a half to three and a half over the course of the week. Yeah. But to me, this isn't. Obviously, Josh Allen matters, but even more so this game, it's does the Vikings offense do anything against this Bill's defense? I agree. I think that's where the conversation is and starts and ends. Right. Like, I don't, I don't, I have not been a fan of Kirk Cousins in this offense outside of Justin Jefferson. I think it's, and Dalvin Cook's good too, but running backs don't really matter. but there's they just i don't think they hawkinson is what he is

Dillon looks like he's done osborne hasn't taken a step forward like i don't know is tradavius white playing in this game no he didn't play last week but if he's like this is a game where if they can limit what justin jefferson can do against them matt milano is one of the best cover corners in the nfl linebackers yeah linebackers could take tj hawkinson out of this game

with the bill's safety is obviously also matching up with him from time to time. Like there's a chance, like I would not be shocked at all if you told me the Vikings scored 10, 14 points and that was it. So again, for the second week in a row, Chris, what you're saying is you don't like that. I don't like that. You don't like that. Sorry if that was too loud. I did back up a little bit.

It actually wasn't too bad. Yeah, I gave myself about two feet away from my mic before I left. that out. I think road games in the NFL suck, especially against good teams, even if they don't have their starting quarterback. What is the spread of this game? Anyone know? Minus three. Yeah, it's minus three right now. Then that's what the- for the bills. For the bills. And that's with the assumption that Josh Allen is not playing. Okay. Yeah, man, I think I'm taking, I'm thinking I'm taking Buffalo here. I agree. I think I'm taking Buffalo too. The defense is so strong. And I don't,

think like Kirk Cousins A dot this year's 6.2. Like I imagine. I just don't think that they have the I don't think they have the weapons they need outside of Jefferson to take advantage of this defense, which is already really hard to take advantage of anyway. Yeah, we saw, I mean, we saw how much they struggled against the last like really formidable defense in the Eagles. and it's like they they have I mean they played Packers Lions Saints bears dolphins Cardinal like these are not Yeah above average defenses in the NFL yeah I agree and and the the Bill's pass rush could just And the Vikings O line has been playing out of their mind I will say that and so but the this Bill's pass rush is probably Outside of Dallas maybe the best in the league Yeah, and because again, we come back to it with Buffalo a lot, but they get pressure with four guys.

And that's the way to make a quarterback like Kurt Cousins make mistakes is being able to drop seven rush four, which is what Philly was doing when they played them. And so like that, you're right, that is the comp. I didn't even think of that. But that's the comp for this game is can Kirk Cousins put it together? and make smart decisions knowing that he's going to have to kind of pick apart the defense a little and it's not going to be as he's not going to have as many open targets as he might want. Yes.

Can you guys vote on something for me really quick? I need your take. So I don't know if you followed the conversation in the fantasy points discord, the chat between our own Tyler Fornes, one of our college football guys and myself. I posted in there at the time of the Hawkinson trade that Hawkinson is not good. Obviously just some, there's a lot of tongue and cheek and hyperbole there.

I don't think Hawkinson's a bad player at all. I think he's a solid player. Yeah. But I'm being dramatic. Anyways, Tyler, you know, cleverly replies to that and says, I'm saving this tweet for later, or this post for later. I said, okay, great. And then he's like, I really think Hawkinson's going to be unlocked in this office.

offense. So now my question and what I want you guys to vote on are is my perspective that from just a bitter Lions fan who just hates anything lions related and players moving on and I'm just subconsciously rooting for TJ Hawkinson to suck because he didn't work out here. Or is Tyler Fornes just a very optimistic likings fan who has a team that's seven and one and thinks Hawkinson's way better than he is? What side do you guys? And I'll make sure Tyler gets this clip. So this isn't me talking behind Tyler's back. Tyler and I are bros.

I would like, what do you guys stand on that? Is Tyler the optimistic Vikings fan or am I just a depressed Lions fan? Chris, you go first. Oh, yeah, you don't really get a vote, Steve. Well, I'm going to try to, I'm going to try to operate because I have not had strong feelings about this trade. Okay. Either way, I guess I'm going to go first now. Okay.

Let's go. I tried to avoid it, but here we go. I did not have very strong feelings about this trade when it happened. So I'm going to try to operate as unbiased as possible here. He's already going to tell me I'm wrong. I can feel it. I think, I think it's somewhere in the, it's honestly, I think it'll end up being somewhere in the middle. I don't think he'll ever, I don't think he'll ever eclipse top 10.

I think he'll always be right on the cusp of a top 10 tight end. because I think there will always be another talent that comes in. And like it's just a little bit better. I mean, he's had Matthew Stafford and he's had his injury issues, but it's just used it's too much flash in the pan and not enough consistency. And that's, I think, kind of the player that he is in a way. I think he's an athletic guy that can go, that can go, that can have a huge game,

but if you're looking for, like, game in, game out, reliance, there's just enough holes that keep him from being, like, the top five tight end that we all wanted him to be at the time of the draft. Yeah, that's been my take pretty much the whole time is, like, good player, solid player, but he doesn't have a singular skill set that puts him over the top in any way, that makes him a guy who can win. when you need him to win. He can't be reliable in that way.

Can he be a functional part of an offense? Absolutely. And the fact that he does have a Justin Jefferson there will probably make him better than he was in Detroit, but it's still a very steep price to pay. Anyways, I've already said this a million times. Chris, your thoughts. All right.

So I'm going to make this very simple for all tight ends. And Hawkinson firmly falls in this bucket. If you are not the elite of elite tight ends, you, depending on how you're all, offense uses you can be much more of a damage to your offense than a help. And Hawkinson firmly falls into that bucket. If they are force-feeding him targets, you know, he's always part of the first rate,

whatever, taking away from Jefferson or even Dalvin Cook, like, he is not going to be a net positive for this offense for what you're giving, losing. If you're not, Travis Kelsey, Mark Andrews, Dallas Goddard, Kyle Pitts, if he was on a real offense. Healthy Waller. Yeah, Darren Waller, George Kettle. Healthy Kittle. That's pretty much it.

Like, you, your offense shouldn't run through these guys. There's a reason, like, they don't, they don't give you the same offensive explosiveness that a Justin Jefferson, a, trying to think of other teams that use their tight end probably more than they should. Dallas Cowboys. Yes, yeah. Dalton Shultz. My comp for Hawkinson lately has been, I love ridiculous analogies, right?

So if you put Dalton Shultz in the Captain America chamber and started giving him the Super Soldier Serum, but like stopped after like 5% went in, then you have T.J. Hawkinson. So like Hockinson's like a slightly upgraded version of Schultz in my opinion. So that's, yeah, that like these these tight ends just don't give you the same. they can be totally useful in an offense. Zach Ertz probably did this for years in Philly and still was doing it in Arizona. He could never be the focal point of an offense. And when he was, especially for Philly, they never had great offenses because your tight ends aren't going to make those explosive plays for you like a receiver could, like a running back

Ken on a screen versus tight end screens. Like we see this like tight end screens pretty much outside of Dallas Goddard running them is the only team that seems to use them effectively. So Kittle has done some work with training screens. Kittle has. They've only done it a ton this year with him. But yes, they definitely have in the past. So it's that simple to me.

If you're not one of those Uber elite guys, you and your team is making you a focal, whether you're the number one, number two guy in the offense, that's probably not a good thing. And it's interesting because you've seen it before. You've seen the games in Detroit where Hawkinson, whether it be from injury, a game plan standpoint, whatever it was the week that it happened. But he's had a couple breakout games. And it always feels like it comes in a loss. Yeah, it just doesn't.

Oh, yeah, because the game script just dictates you're going to pass the ball more. You're going to see softer zones. He's going to be open more. Even the monster game he had this year, Steve, like two of his catches were against. completely busted coverages. Right. Like that 70 yard or whatever was literally a bused coverage. Right.

Like, yeah. So it's. Hockinson just hasn't shown the like the separation and overall, um, overall work as a receiver to really take that next step. And I, I don't know. He's, he's coming up on year five now or he's in year five. Is that right? So like, and at.

this point, I don't know if we're really going to see it develop. Right. And that's just the unfortunate part. But if you can find a way to use him complimentary, great. But I just, the problem is, is we haven't seen that yet with him. And that's also a commentary on the offense that he was in for a while. The assets they already gave up to get him are now forcing them to make him not a complimentary piece, but a focal piece of their offense. especially when they're paying him 14, 15 million bucks a year.

Right. But I will say, I think that I bet you, Vikings fans from an overall, like, course of work from Hawkinson, I think they'll come away pleased with it because I think that Hawkinson will be a contributor in that offense. Yeah. But I just don't think that he has the upside. that a lot of people want him to have. For sure.

It really depends how, like, football woke they are. I think the average fan will definitely enjoy watching TJ Hockinson play. Right. Guys are a little bit more savvy to X's or O's or analytics. We'll probably figure it out that he's not worth 15 million bucks a year or whatever. So we need to move on, though. Yeah, shield your eyes from the run blocking. Yeah, very much so, very much so.

all right so we have very limited time now um so very briefly before we get into the final game i really wanted to talk about i want to mention browns dolphins we kind of already touched it but it's an important game because the browns have to win or this is one of the next three games that they have to win yes so um if they don't win not good but it is important it's rare you get a three and five team that's like in a situation where it's uh it's an important game for them but it for sure is And Miami's playing for the division potentially if the bills do lose. That's true. If the bills start to falter, that is definitely within the realm of possibility.

And then the last game I want to talk about, and I think this is going to be a pretty good game. It's Sunday night football. The Chargers versus the 49ers. They're both currently the seven seats in their conference. So you can kind of call that a must-win game in a lot of ways. I think the 49ers probably have more leeway to lose a game than the Chargers do because the AFC is a little bit more talent heavy. But this game has tons of implications.

For it being only week 10, you're not going to find a game that probably means more to a team right now than this game. And a non-conference game at that. Right. Yeah, true. Good. Non-division, non-conference. True.

Very true. This game is exciting, though. I was going to say real quick, just for the Cleveland game, I just want to say that, I think that they're one of three secondaries that has the talent in their backfield. They haven't necessarily shown it all the time this year, but pure talent-wise is like one of the few secondaries that I think could potentially hang with Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle. If there's a secondary, they can do it.

I feel like they're one of them. That's true. Agreed. But moving on to the San Fran game. Yeah. So Chargers are in San Francisco for this game. it's not really a far trip they're both California

it's a short little flight I think it's like literally like an hour and a half or two hour a flight so yeah I don't really know how I feel about this game to be honest there is a lot of potential for this to go a multitude of ways oh I think the Niners wipe the flight

I used to say I do you right yeah I think the Niners are going to break the Chargers offense I think that I think the Niners defense is going to break the Chargers offense Changers line is bad. It is bad.

Since Steve and I both seem to be on this, what do you think gives the Chargers a shot in this game? Well, they seem to contend in every game. They don't really get blown out.

I think a low-key thing working in their favor is their run-D is so bad that I think Shanahan's going to get googly-eyed and think like, hey, I don't have to rely on

Jimmy this game, which anytime you can do that's probably a win. And they're going to run the ball too much and it's going to keep the Chargers in the game. Now, I'm not saying I think the Chargers are going to win, but I think it could be close enough where you could see Herbert working a fourth quarter, you know, magic. McCaffrey could have a massive game. It could have a massive game. The Niners have the, at fantasy points, have our overall rush grade this week based on their matchup and it's not close.

Yeah. And the Chargers, Austin Johnson got hurt last week. I don't know if he's out this week. I haven't looked at their practice report, but I know he got hurt last week. And they just cut Jerry Tilleri, who was taking a good amount of snaps per week. They said he's so bad that we are taking him from taking snaps to anybody else can have them.

Not even like, you know what, we're going to cut it back or we're going to throw you to the practice squad. they said someone else take him off our hands because we're done with him. And their run defense is terrible. So hopefully they have someone that can fill in. But with, I mean, you're right. Shanahan probably is just beaming looking at film and watching what he can do to this run defense. Yeah.

Which in here, as long as the chargers can, you know, go on some long drives with their own. that it should keep this game relatively close. By the way, Austin Johnson got put on IR yesterday. Yeah, he was there. He's their best interior rusher, or best interior defender. On a very, very, very not good interior defensive line, they just lost two guys that were getting, like, significant meaningful snaps.

The Tillery thing, I think probably has more to do with a disagreement. You don't usually go from a guy who's playing a bunch of snaps and just outright cutting him, especially when you're putting his partner on IR. Like, there had to have been some type of conflict that happened that they just felt like wasn't worth resolving. Oh, I'm sure. But, like, still, now you're down, you're down two starting to rotational or one starting defensive line and one at, like, you know, a rotational at worst in your, in your lineup. Yep. Yeah, I mean, those guys were a replacement level anyway.

So it's, is it even really, I don't think they get worse, I guess is what I'm saying. What do they have behind them if they were playing those guys? Probably equal values. The replacement level, that's what I'm saying. Right. Austin Johnson's not a good football player. Jerry Tiller wasn't a good football player. So losing those guys, you're just replacing them with guys who are also probably not good football players.

It is worth noting too. Eric Armstead and Samson Ecubom have not practiced yet this week. Okay. That vaunted the line for the four-nighters is a little banged up. but yeah so that's that's the only thing i think keep this game close is that the 49ers just they're stupid and like shanning had does weird things and they might run the ball way too much and um i'm sure it will work i'm not saying it won't work it's just going to it's like going to be this slog of the game really slow paced especially with the the chargers low a dot ball control

pass game it's like i mean i could see i could see each team getting like a drive in the first order. They need to for, for them to have a chance, they need to force Jimmy Garoppolo to have to do something in this game. And I just don't see. Like he said, yeah, Shanham might run too much, but I also just don't see how it doesn't work. He's just so good at scheming up effective run plays.

And they're so bad at stopping everything on the ground. everything. Yeah. So like either, then it comes down, okay, all right, so he can't stop the run?

So then, all right, can Herbert and this offense put up enough points to get them into the Niners into a passing game script? And they have no Mike Williams, probably no Keenan Allen again.

So Josh Palmer is your wide receiver one and some connect combination of Diannre Carter, Michael Baddeley, and Gerald Everett are your second receiving options. Actually, Austin Echler is probably your first receiving option. Yeah, right. So it's like I don't see a world where... Is Keenan not back?

No, he's got... He's something going on. I honestly don't know if we ever see him this game or this season. Wow. So, I mean, the other note about the 49ers is like, maybe on paper they match up well with the Chargers. But let's not pretend like this has been a good football team this year. they're four and four for a reason they've lost games to the freaking chicago bears

they've lost they lost to the broncos they couldn't score more than 10 points of the broncos they've lost to the falcons they're i mean like they have not been a good football team at all yeah it's their offense they got shut out by the texas oh no that was preseason my bad specifically it's qb play for them so that's what i'm saying like yeah and they need to find away for Garoppel to have to do something. And it's a very picture perfect matchup for San Francisco as far as what their strengths are and what the Chargers weaknesses are. It couldn't match up much better for San Francisco in that respect.

Because I do totally agree that San Francisco has been a very up and down team that their offense, when it's good, they usually win, when it's bad. They don't. and that's usually the driving force and Jimmy G is what he is. But I just think that that defense has the opportunity to wreak havoc on the Chargers offense with the way they're built. And Kyle Shanahan is happy knowing that he might only have to have Jimmy G. drop back 17 times.

So since week three, they've only put up less than 20 points once. So do you, let's let's, let's, spot them 20, 21, 24 points, whatever. Do you see the Chargers being able to match that against with their current receiving weapons? I don't know the 49ers are going to score that many points, though. I know, I know. I'm not saying they definitely, well, I'm saying let's,

they've done that, what, five of six times? The Falcons beat the 49ers with 130 passing yards. Yeah, that's the one game they didn't score over 20. Mario just completed 13 passes in that game. Right. The Falcons got out to lead and then basically just ran the ball and Jimmy does what Jimmy does and couldn't lead a comeback. Right.

That's what I'm saying. So as long as this game is close, I think the Chargers have a chance. And that should be their goal is keeping it close. Who's passing attack? Do you trust more? The Chargers are the 49ers? Honestly. Right now.

Yeah. Chargers. Chargers, you're wrong, Chargers. Jimmy Garoppolo is terrible. Oh, are you talking? Are you talking? Because scheme-wise and ability to get the ball down, like the ability to get the ball down the field.

In a close game, when it matters, you got to score points. You put in the ball in Justin Herbert's hands. Don't care who his offensive coordinator is or who is receiving options are, or are you putting the ball in Jimmy Garablo's hands. This has nothing to do with Herbert. It has to do with their receiving weapons

and the way their offense is to die. I don't care. I still take Herbert. I would take over it too, but the problem I'm saying in this game, if the score is close and you're putting, you have a choice between 49ers and chargers based on everything we know,

down the stretch in a pressure situation, I am taking Herbert over, Herbert to lead the Chargers to victory over Jimmy leading the 49ers to victory. You're assuming the Chargers game is close. That's what I'm saying. I don't see how it's going to close. There's no evidence to suggest it won't be.

The 49ers have, they're not good. They haven't been good this year. They're four and four. They've lost to three terrible teams. And they, like, defensively, they have massive collapse when it matters. Jimmy Garoppolo can't perform in the clutch. There's nothing to suggest that they should wipe the floor with the chargers. I strongly disagree.

I don't see how they don't. This could not be a better matchup for them. The Falcons are the same exact matchup, except they don't have Justin Herbert. They have Marcus Mariotta. Falcons offensive line sucks. The Falcons also. can't stop the run. No, the Falcons are a pass funnel team.

Yeah. What do you mean? They get torched through the air. They're one of the highest teams that gets, like, teams pass rate over expectation goes up big time when they play them. Yeah, Falcons are about 11th in yards per carry against. There is only two teams with a higher defenses with a higher pass rate over expectation on them than the Falcons.

It's Arizona and Tennessee. and then Atlanta's third. Because the Falcons have had some injuries on that back end, so they're a little bit more vulnerable in the passing game. Yeah, you don't, you don't, teams don't run on the Falcons if, you know, like obviously if they're up on them, then yeah, the Carolina did it last night. But outside of being, they've been getting nuked on the ground.

Oh, I'm not saying they're good on the ground. I'm just saying the way teams are attacking them are through the air, in particular. They gave up 170 yards two weeks ago to the Panthers, and then 100 whatever last night and multiple scores. Well, when you run it 45 times. And you get down because your offense can't do anything. That's what I'm saying.

You totally can run on them. I'm just saying that teams. I'm just saying the matchup is very similar, and the 49ers lost that game. So. See, I don't think it is similar. The Chargers run game is bad. The Falcons run game is awesome.

the like the the receiving talent on Atlanta was much better but obviously they can't really use it they're just there you're telling me you think Nick Bosa isn't going to destroy this

Chargers offensive line that's my thing I think he can yeah that's my thing is that it comes down to that offensive line is for the Chargers is bad and the San Francisco has upper level pass rushing talent that could make that can make the game a nightmare for the

Chargers offense so this is in your world is it is it 10 to 13 or is it 24 to 20 I think it's probably somewhere in the ballpark of 2017 17 14 24 21 something like that then where the charges giving these points the 49ers defense has not been as good as people think it is what I'm saying. The game script against Atlanta was the same. That was such a big sigh from Chris. That was hilarious. The game script against Atlanta was literally almost the exact same as this game.

And they lost that game handedly. So like the 49ers are down their best corner for the season. Like it's, they don't have good coverage assets. So. as bad as the Chargers receiving core is, as long as Herbert's getting the ball out quickly, he shouldn't be sacked 500. He wasn't even sacked once last game

actually. So yeah, we just Oh, against the Falcons. Imagine that. Yeah, they just put in, yeah, and they put up 20 points. They beat the Falcons. Yeah, they beat the Falcons. Against one of the top three bad pass defense. The 49ers put up 14 points the week before. The Falcons

gift wrapped. The Falcons defensive linemen gift wrapped that victory for the Chargers. That goes both ways. Echler shouldn't have fumbled the ball. You could say the Chargers gift-wrapped the Falcon. Okay. 60 minutes.

But there's a difference between a guy getting the ball punched out and a man dropping the ball for getting it while he's running uncontested. It's still a gift-wrapping. If Austin Echler falls down right there, they kick the field goal and win the game. It's true. You're right. You're right. Out of the two.

But I just. It's hard for, yeah, I mean, you are right, Brett. In the last three games, San Francisco's past defense has completely deteriorated. They are giving up, they're giving up a league worst, 118.5 pass rating against 8.9 yards per attempt, 5.8% completion percentage over expectation. Like, they have turned into a bit of a sieve. on the bat on as far as past defense the last three last three games for themselves so you so you have you have merit there it's just the chargers weapons are so uninspiring yeah i get that like the one thing that like they have just and herbert but i just it's hard for me to see the charges

receivers winning consistently in the offense that has been constructed in l. a right now also looking at like 49ers pass rushers the last few weeks haven't really been great so other than Bosa so if you commit help to Bosa you got you have a chance to survive there they really haven't been good actually they can't afford to commit any help they can't they can't have Gerald Everett not running routes

they can't have Echler throwing chip locks I mean, it's not just chip blocks, so it's screen game, it's time to throw. It's occasional chip blocks. Like, yeah, you have to do it. You have to game plan for it. If you're not game planning for Nick Bosa anyways, you're done. Right. I'm assuming they have some type of game plan for them.

But the fact that the 49ers don't have anyone else to get pressure, like, Abucom might miss the game. I mean, when's the last time Armstead played? It's been a while. So, I mean, if those guys both miss, like, Bosa's on an island. And I know he's a one-man wrecking crew, but like the with a really kind of suspect secondary and one pass rush is all you have to figure out. I don't know. I'm just, I'm, all I'm saying is I'm not seeing the wipe the floor.

I'm not seeing the wipe the floor with the charges thing. I think this one's close. All right. What if it's not the wipe the floor, what do you consider the range then? Like if the 49ers win by a touchdown, is that considered not? wiping the floor or 10 point like where where do you where would you how much does the nineers have to win by for you to consider it not wiping the floor with them well wiping the floor implies a blowout I think this game will be a one possession game at some point late in the fourth

quarter okay on either side whether the chargers ahead or the 49ers had so yeah I don't know you guys are picking the 49ers obviously I guess just for the you know anticipation of it I have to stick yeah I have to pick the chargers to win just to fuel the drama

so you even if you even if you had said San Francisco it wouldn't have counted I wouldn't I would I would I would not have counted it what does Vegas think about this game anyone now definitely going to be favored

I want to I thought I saw it on a billboard driving down 94 the other day. Really? Yeah, I'm pretty sure they had it advertised on a billboard for like Caesar's sports book. And they had like game of the week in the line on the billboard. It's nineers minus seven. Yeah, that's right. I did.

That is a big line. I did. That is a big line. So I'm definitely picking the chargers to cover. Definitely picking the chargers to cover. So you're crazy. Yeah, I would, I mean, I would hedge mine. I would probably put money on chargers to cover just to give myself.

Like you did last, like when we were joking around last night, but because Carolina and Atlanta were on pace for, what was it, less than 125 plays? And Chris, you had said, what do you want to take the over or the under? And Brett said, I want to bet the over,

but I want the under, so I win both either way. Yeah, we were at halftime at 9.30 Eastern. And I was like, this is crazy. I've learned the strategy being a lifelong Detroit guy. So like anytime the lions are up in a football game, you automatically just go bet the other team. So no matter what happens, you're happy.

I've done this with Michigan football too. So Michigan never beats Ohio State for the most part. Last year, they had a 17 point lead or something on Ohio State, and I still went into my Draft Kings app and bet Ohio State to cover the spread at that point. because just either way I would have came out happy. So you're just like Mac from Always Sunny, the quote where he's like,

I play both sides, so I win no matter what. Yeah, exactly. I'm never losing, only winning. All right, that's cool. This is good.

We've successfully previewed the important games this week, and we did so with a lot of fervor and heat and sweat. I'm sweating, actually. So this is great. Thank you so much, Chris, for coming on

the show again. It's pretty awesome. We will probably have you on again soon. I think next week we have Graham Barfield joining the pod on Friday, Fantasy Points own. Graham's a freaking stud, so it'd be good to have them and talk some ball. And other than that, we'll see you guys Wednesday. Please enjoy the game. And if the Chargers win this week, make sure you rub it in Steve and Chris's face. If they lose, please do not even talk to me. Because accountability is bare. in this industry and I don't want any stuff. All right. I'm your host, Brett Whitefield.

This is my co-ist, Stephen Rourke, and our guest, Christopher Wex. We are out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.