Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Take Talk Episode 26

Episode Date: December 2, 2022

Hosts Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) and Steven ORourke (@callmesteveo7) are joined by PFF's John Kosko (@JohnKosko3) to discuss the current state of NFL QBs and analyze the tremendous Week 13 slate of games. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Commission's fees and expenses may apply. Read the funds or ETF's prospectus before investing. Funds and ETFs are not guaranteed. Their values change and past performance may not be repeated. It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome in to another episode of the Take Talk podcast.

I am your host, Brett Whitefield. This is my co-host, Stephen Arroyk, who's banging on his keyboard. And then we have a special... I was my wife rooting around in the room real quick. No worries. Then we have a special, very special guest. Returning to the podcast for his second episode, John Costco of Pro Football Focus. John, what's up, man?

What's going on, fellas? It's good to be back on the pod. And I know we talk football all the time with each other, but it's good to do it on a pod. Yeah, don't tell the listeners that. They don't need to know that. We want them to assume this conversation is completely organic. We don't know each other. Oh, yeah.

We have no idea who each other are. And I could say, you were on episode two, right? Yeah, I think so. It was your very first guest. Yeah. So we've done, this is the 26 episode, I think, I think. So you've done, we've done 24 episodes since you were last on. So we're better at this now, John.

Oh, perfect, perfect. Yeah. I'm expecting a crisp and clean product, except for Steve came in here with banging on the keyboard and stuff. Yeah, well, no, that's a new feature of the show. We've, we've added wives rumbling through offices. Yeah, you might, you might get, as part of the show. You might get kittens rumbling through my, uh, keyboard and stuff like that here soon.

I've got two new kittens. Nice. Brett knows that cat, a cat is a, is an often appearance with, for me, too, in any of our meetings as well. Nice. I pretty much always hear Steve's cat. And then once in a while he'll like pop his little face out. It's kind of funny. But well, let's dive in.

First thing I wanted to kind of get off my chest in that is, you know, I have four kids. I know John, you have a couple kids. Steve, you're not quite there yet. No, not yet. Got to pick it up. But the amazing thing about having kids is they allow you to kind of relive your youth. And I was talking to the guys about this before the pod. But my kids have recently got in the podcast.

Pokemon. And being the giant nerd that I am, I cannot help myself from diving into Pokemon with them. So we're doing the show. We're back into collecting cards. We're playing the video games. This is, this is weird. I'm a 35-year-old man, and I understand this is weird. But I just want to say that I love it. I absolutely freaking love it. Well, it's kind of like how, like, it's a nostalgic thing, right? That's why, like, you get so many people, like, probably our age and even maybe older that, really love the Disney stuff or whatever. Oh, yeah. Because it just makes them feel good.

So, like, I mean, it's just, it's just like anything with our youth. Same thing with, like, I never played Pokemon. It was before, it was after my time. I'm 37 or 38. I have to think about that. But my kids are, like, they're finally getting into, like, the sports. Like, my youngest son is, like, really gung-ho about it, which is awesome for me, because that's exactly how I was like when I was growing up.

So it's such a cool thing from that respect. Yeah, we've been getting hit and like smoked with nostalgic stuff the last like five years. It's very crazy. Every industry is just attacking like our generation and just trying to like reel us back into everything that interested us at when like when we were kids. everything is being either remade or added on to, right? Like, there's so many remakes coming out. You know, the Star Wars franchise is like thriving more than ever. And it's, you know, well, other than Andor, their newest show, they haven't put out a good movie in, you know, a decade.

So. That's debatable. Yeah. I guess that is debatable, but. Right. Yes. It depends on how you view it, right? So.

Yeah. John just outed himself as a. an episode nine fan right there. Well, I definitely liked episode seven. I thought that was a great set up for the trilogy for the latest trilogy. I think there's obviously issues with episodes eight and nine, but

if you take them as a face value. Even eight was less bothersome than nine. Bringing Palpatine back as the main villain really just kind of pissed me off. Yeah, nine was a jumbled. Spoiler alert, by the way. Yeah. Nine was a,

was I think a mess because I think what happened in A is is probably the director took it in a different direction than the person overseeing everything wanted it to go. And so they tried to fix what they wanted for episode nine. And it doesn't work like that. Like they didn't have a unified vision for that trilogy, which is obviously a big problem. And it started off extremely strong. Like, I thought it was like a, like, the Force Awakens, I thought was a phenomenal movie. Like, I thought it was extremely very so. And I like, standalone, it is a very good movie.

And I liked, um, episode eight, right? Okay. Um, the Last Jedi. I thought it was a good movie. It's just they didn't take it and build on that. They tried to scrub it essentially, which is, yeah, yeah, becomes a problem. Yep. And, you know, now that we're way off the rails, we should probably get back on the

this is a football podcast but it is called tic-talk it is called tic-tok yeah um yeah well so we brought john on because you know he he watches as much football as we do and you know obviously pff has a unique way of doing things and so he's just he's an expert in a lot of ways so we want to bring them on it to mostly talk qbs so this podcast we're going to talk we're going to do a really nice qb review kind of the nfl season we'll even take a peek at some of the college QBs and how they've performed so far this year for kind of how they finish out their season because I know we've we've hit that topic a few times and then we're going to look ahead to this insanely just action-packed week 13 slate that we got this week it's basically a playoff preview

this week and it's kind of exciting so all that said John I I just always want to talk QBs with you because it seems to be what you and I can talk about for hours what do you think this season has told us about the QB landscape in the NFL. It's always changing. But I think it's, you know, you coming into the season, you obviously are going to be a little bit unsure about Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers in terms of like, are they going to continue playing at that extremely high level at this late in their careers?

And we've seen the drop off from them. But what we knew coming into the season that then, you know, obviously Patrick Holmes is an elite level quarterback. Josh Allen and Joe Burrow were on the verge of getting into that. I think Josh Allen still, like, needs to prove that his first two years in the season were, you know, him growing and that the last two haven't been a fluke. And he's, I think, picked up from where he's left off. He might not be, like, the super, like, you know, he's made, he's thrown some interceptions this year. But I would say he still firmly put himself into that elite level category.

And then Joe Burrow, he, yeah. People have to remember preseason he had appendectomy, you know, and I think he wasn't right for the first month of the season. You have surgery on your midsection. That's a lot of, you use your core muscles and stuff like that to throw the football. So I think him, especially since the week six, I think the week six to now, he's the highest graded quarterback in the NFL that we have. For the season, it comes out to being the fifth highest graded quarterback. And so I think you got the three guys that we thought that maybe, were the best, you know, might be the next crop of dudes.

They're proven to be that. And, you know, it's, you know, out with the old, in with the new. And then you got a couple of new guys coming in here that are showing to be, hey, we might be knocking on the door. You know, Tua has had a phenomenal year. Part of that is, like, obviously a phenomenal supporting cast, great coaching staff and, you know, utilizing his strengths. But he's done it to the best of his abilities.

And he's, for the entire season, our highest graded quarterback. which is, you know, part of that. Sometimes you'd see that, like that to start off his season. And then it like teams figure it out and he tapers off. But that hasn't happened yet. And I think I think it kind of shows give quarterbacks time to develop. Now, we've seen two quarterbacks and now three with Jalen Hertz and how he's developed this year. You got to give these guys time to develop.

You can't just write them off after year one or you two because you never know what's going to happen. Like, like, Tua looked like he was a bad quarterback. Josh Allen looked like he was a bad quarterback. I liked Jalen Hertz's trajectory that he was on. I didn't think he was showed him he was a bad quarterback, but, you know, you got him, you get him an elite level weapon, and he jumps into that up for echelon. And so it's quarterback players. To your point. Yeah.

To your point on Hertz, not a lot of people expected him to take the leap he's taken. Right. Exactly. I think there are plenty of people that likes the trajectory, like you said, like, okay, yeah, he's getting better showing some things. But he really has taken a leap. That whole draft class, actually, John, is freaking loaded. I mean, Borough, Tua, Herbert, hurts. I haven't mentioned Herbert, right?

I think, where does he fit in in the picture? Yeah, I think he's not having as great of a year. Part of it is he got hurt week two or whatever. And then he's not had his top weapons. And I think it kind of shows how important it is to A, be healthy. But it also shows that, like, supporting cast matters a lot for these young guys. like you just never know what can happen for a young quarterback if you don't put the weapons around him like not everybody can be like i think tom brady uh for a large part of his career he had rob gruncowski

as an elite level weapon but like there's been parts of his career where he didn't have the you know he never had like a top tier type weapon or whatever not everybody's like that and i think you you still need the weapons around quarterbacks and so i think um you know like think about can he picket or whatever like a lot of people are starting already writing him off and saying Pittsburgh should be drafting the quarterback and you know because they'll have a top 10 pick and it's like give the guy time like it's you might not like him coming out of college and so it's like he's confirming your your priors but it's like no the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted the dude in the first round for a reason like he's going to get time especially with that organization like all these young

guys and you can see it with Danny Jones this year he doesn't have a weapon he literally doesn't having a weapon besides besides Siquan Barkley. And he's not had one his entire career. And then he also can argue that his coaching staff has been really poor for him. So it's like he showed this year, hey, he's taking a leap with better coaching staff. Now get him with weapons and see what he can do. Like is Daniel Jones the next guy?

I don't know. I mean, I think I liked his prospects and stuff like that. But give him weapons and see what he can do with him. It's like what two I had this year. Daniel Jones is at least probably played his way into being the Giants quarterback next year. Yeah, absolutely. Which was probably off the table.

I mean, they didn't pick up his fifth year option. That was probably off the table coming into the season. He's probably played his way into it. I imagine that they probably franchise tag him. I'm not really sure. It'll be tricky how they navigate those waters. I don't know that he's necessarily earned a big extension. The way QBs get extensions in this league is insane.

I don't think they're going to hand him five years and $180 million. But I do think they probably franchise him and see if he can do it again with better weapons and then, you know, kind of take it from there. But a perfect example, John, to your point about giving guys time is none other than Seattle's quarterback, Gino Smith. Like, I mean, it's, he's, it was a laughing joke early in the year with the way he was playing, but he's continued this level of play. Now, I know he's dropped off a little bit for sure.

But man, this was a guy that kind of just repeatedly got dumped early in his career. I think he got cut after a second year starting for the Jets. went to the Giants as a backup for a year, he's bounced around in a backup role. And, you know, six, seven years later, he actually looks like he can play football. You know, to what degree long term? I don't really know, but it's a good example of, like,

you know, guys do develop, they do get better. And when you give them a supporting cast, when you give him a D.K. Metcalf and a Tyler Lockett and a really good run game, things happen. Absolutely. Like, think about it. So he was drafted in 2013. And he, you know, he started for the Jets two years through almost a thousand, you know,

had almost a thousand dropbacks or whatever. His grades in those two years were a 60.6 and a 60.4. It's about what Tula and Josh Allen did in their first two years. And then he was not given another chance. Right. I can't think of, I think they, they probably drafted, is that, so it's 2015. Petty? The Bryce Petty.

I can't remember. But like, I have to go back and look. But the thing is, is that he was not given another chance. He was saying that he's not the guy. Let's move on. And it's like, how do you even know you didn't, for one, the Jets have like rarely had any sort of offensive talent for themselves until probably this year. And basically it was just like a backup quarterback for the next six years or whatever. Last year, you know, two years ago he lands in Seattle.

The COVID year only has like six dropbacks. Last year when Russell Wilson got hurt, he had 112. so they saw, hey, this is, we have, we have a larger sample size of what this guy can do. I like his prospects, maybe, you know, that's what they, they probably thought and why they probably were comfortable with trading away, Russell Wilson, because they saw, hey, we think Gino can play. And then you come on this year and he's, you know, he's got an 83.8 grade for the season. He's got 24 big time throws.

You know, he's 20, he has 19 touchdowns of five interceptions. You know, he has three games. with a passing grade of over 91. Like, he's going on. So it's like, he's dropped off some. Like, I think, you know, over the past six games, he's got, you know, his grades are not great. He's got one game where it's a 91.1, but then everything's in, like, in the 60s there. So, like, maybe teams have figured him out, but it's, but it's still, he's playing good,

efficient quarterback play. He's averaged over eight yards per attempt the last eight games. part of that esteem, you know, and stuff like that. But I think, yeah, like exactly what you said. Like he was tossed to the side, tossed to the wolves after two years. And we've already seen in the past several years, you know, a couple of years that quarterbacks in that third year take a pretty good leap. For sure.

So one thing I want to do really quick, and I think this could be a fun little segment. And I know I'm going to put you guys on the spot, Steve and John. But I love superlatives. I'm a sucker for them. and when it's draft season and everyone puts out their draft guide, if the scouts writing the draft guide incorporate supplaratives, I just, I love it, as long as they're, you know, smart about it. Sometimes you see suppleratives that make no sense.

But I would like you guys to randomly throw out some suppleratives for QBs out there. Like, I'll start with one. I think Joe Burrow is the best QB in the league at throwing into the boundary. I think Aaron Rogers probably carried that torch for a long time. But I think it's Joe Burrow now. What he, like the way he attacks defenses at the boundary is insane. He just gives his receivers, even if they don't have separation, his ball location is so good that he's just,

he's giving his offense a chance to make a play when there's no play to be made. So that, that's like kind of what I'm looking for for me, guys. Agree or disagree with that one, by the way. I think it's a, I think it's a good take. I mean, I'm a huge Joe Burrow. fan. You probably won't find many bigger fans of Joe Bro than me. So I think he does a lot of, I mean, he plays, he plays a position at an extremely high level. And if there's only one knock on him that you'd say he, he tends to take pressure on himself

and sacked too many times. But like you. I think you're right. Like you saw it in college, like he has a really good ability to put the ball on the sideline in exactly the spot that he wants to put it. And he does it time and time. Again, he's got the, the weapons that know how to to track those balls as well. So I like it. I like it. Yeah, right. It speaks to like having a supporting cast around you and like how it helps a

quarterback grow. Like Joe Burrow, I don't think is able to do or be what exactly he is without having T. Higgins and Jamar Chase on both sides. I mean, that just helps him to grow and gives him the opportunity to make those plays. what's what's crazy about burrow though when you mentioned that like jemar chase we know has been out for four weeks or whatever it is now and he's still playing at an extremely high level which he didn't his play hasn't dropped off since since losing losing jama chase um which speaks volumes to like you know we saw obviously as a as a rookie he played well and then last year with jimar chase became like

he was the highest grader quarterback in the NFL for us at pf and without him it was it was going to be interesting to see, hey, how does he, does he, does he, is he able to maintain that? And he's actually, you know, keeping that level of play. So it's, it's, you know, kudos to him. Burrough specifically, John, I think it was about six weeks ago, I said on this very podcast that Burrow is back. Like, we, we had been very critical of Burrow early in the season. I hadn't really kept the, the surgery he had in mind, actually.

I kind of forgot that. It makes a lot of sense now, especially when you look at, like, the, A DOT numbers and the way the Bengals were calling plays early in the year, it actually makes complete sense. He couldn't really drive the football. And as he got healthier and healthier, his play started to rise. So, like, I think it was week six or week seven. I said, oh, man, Burrow is back.

I know John, you and I have had some conversations, but he is definitely ticking again. Chase is coming back. They have a brutal schedule down the stretch here. Brutal. I mean, it's going to either set them apart as the team to beat in the AFC or you're going to have a lot of questions about them coming into the playoffs because they have a gauntlet they're about the face.

I think every team remaining on their schedule is currently a playoff team, if I'm not mistaken. I know one of them is like Tampa Bay and, oh, no, they have Cleveland on the schedule, but it's going to be that Cleveland team is pesky. They're tough. You know, they can be annoying. They're getting to Sean Watson back. Well, for one, I don't know if Joe Burrow has actually ever beaten Cleveland. I think you're right.

Joe Burrow and Zach Taylor have not. Yeah. You mentioned that on Wednesday's pod, Steve. Yeah. So, like, there is, like, it seems like Joe Woods is a defensive coordinator for Cleveland has Joe Burroughs number as of right now. And that's, that game's next week. So that'll be a very interesting game to see how, like, Browns with Watson after a week of,

you know, maybe to be able to shake off the rust against the worst team in the NFL and how Burroughs are going to be able to play in that one. I think that one's going to be an exciting game. But, yeah. Because that was their last bad loss was the last time they played Cleveland. Yeah, I mean. That's true. That's true.

And that's the only game that Burroughs that kind of struggled at. I'm just looking at like his grades over the past, basically since week six, like when I said, he's the highest graded quarterback. So week six, he was a 77.5. And then he was a 90, 90.5. And then he was Cleveland was a 66.3. But then a 90.4, 90.9.2, 85.2. Like, like ridiculous, like, level of efficiency. and then this blip against cleveland i don't that was the first game he was without chase so

yeah there's an adjustment had some things to figure out there yep yeah sweet so all right one of you two give me a supportive go go for it steve you're the you're the co-hosts i i think that i think that patrick mahomes this year has become probably top, like top three or even the best at navigating the pocket after so many years of, like, that being the one thing that, like, we picked on. I think he's fixing that and he's becoming one of the best and that's terrifying for everyone involved. I'll let John respond to that.

No, I mean, I think Mahomes has an uncanny knack for, for feeling pressure in the pocket and getting away from it. And, you know, I'm just just looking at our numbers or whatever. He's incurred 28 pressures on his own, which is like, it counts for like 19% of the pressures he's taken on this year. But he has the ability to like not get sacked, extend the play, you know, better than pretty much anybody in the NFL. and make plays happen. And it's probably out of necessity where, like, the step that you've seen from him this year, because in previous years where, you know, he could do that and get away with it and go,

like, all right, where's Tyreek? Let me chuck it down there. All right, cool. He found it. He doesn't have those types of weapon, a weapon of that caliber at all right now. He's got Travis Kelsey. So it makes him be more disciplined in the pocket. And I think we've seen throughout his career where, like, teams,

sort of quote unquote figure him out and he knows how to hey adjust from it and counter that and and and just navigate that and you know show the the team hey you didn't figure me out now figure this out so yeah I don't know if he's the best at navigating the pocket but I know he is a like you say probably top three which is what your take was there because like the biggest thing was is that, you know, in previous years and even at the beginning of this year, the big thing that he would do is he would, his drop back would be so deep. Like he was not like, like you would see like you see guys like, um, like Kurt cousins, Tom Brady, some of those guys that aren't necessarily as mobile as Mahomes. Like if you look at their drop back depth, it's like, it's very

consistent. Like they hit the number and that's where they're at every single time. Mahomes, it was, it's really sporadic. Like there'd be times where he could he could drop back 11 yards. He could drop back 7, 8, like it was all over the map. And I feel like he started to refine that in a way. And I think that that's helped him improve like the timing of the offense, the timing of his throws. I think that you're seeing more in structure plays than you like,

than in previous years like you said, John, where like it would be, you know, run around, find Tyreek, you know, launch it up and let's see what happens. But he's like because of the necessity to refine that. Like he's in not having those insane weapons that he had before. Like he's he's kind of had to fix that a little bit. And we haven't seen as much of the sporadic dropback number or drop back depth. Yeah, there's been times this year for sure that he has had to be very Alex Smithian,

which is, you know, obvious correlation there. connection there. So I definitely agree with that take that he is definitely not drifting as much in the pocket as he is used to. I think that's definitely spot on. And it's an interesting case, right? Like, um, like we've seen quarterbacks improve in the past. Like take Matt Stafford early in his career when he had Calvin Johnson. All he did was he could just rely on that dude all the time. And then when he, you know, no longer had Calvin Johnson, he had to grow and develop. as a quarterback and he did. And it could be said to the same thing about Mahomes is that when you have a weapon of

Tyreeks caliber, you tend to start to rely on that and get away from the good mechanics and the good habits that make you a good quarterback. And you start doing more improv stuff, which is never a good thing for a quarterback when you start trying to force that. So for him, I think it's kind of like, you know, done the same thing where it's like he's better as a as a pocket passer now than and not having to rely on the scramble drill improv stuff for sure john suppleative do you have one uh let's go with with tula as the most accurate quarterback in the NFL um he's top i'd say he could be top three um but like what's what's

impressive about him is that his his ball placement in in like anticipatory throws as really, really good. I think you see it time and time again where maybe because of his lack of arm strength, he's forced to throw it that, you know, that accurately. And he does it. And you're seeing it this year so far that he is. So I would say this year he's, you know, you can make a case that he's the most accurate quarterback in the NFL. There's a play against the Texans. I think it was the Texans, but, you know, an out route to Mike Aseki into the like a hole in his zone that was just like very small window he's throwing it over the top level you know underneath the level of the defense under and underneath the top level of the defense um you know over an

outstretched arm just like from with an anticipatory throw and it's like you see that type of before just like you broke right exactly exactly and he's and you know part of that is obviously having trust in your receivers but like he's playing with the utmost confidence right now and um you know I think that helps for your accuracy. It'll be interesting to see how he does moving forward. Now you go from one of the best offense left tackles in the NFL to one of the worst because he lost her on Armstead. I'm definitely scared for that. So Tua's accuracy is really a sight to behold because it's not even just trusting.

It's trusting what he sees too. It's like you have to trust yourself to know exactly what you see and believe that that's, you know, how the defense is playing you. So fitting those balls into holes and zones, especially when you're throwing in like an anticipatory throw, that takes so much confidence. Yep. And when you're humming like he is, man, that just shows you how dialed in he is because he's, you know, he's doing it time and time again. Question I have for you, John, in terms of accuracy is do you, like, I don't think he's an inaccurate downfield thrower, but I do think his arm strength gets him into trouble. Yes. And he's been bailed out of some hairy situations with Hill just winning at the catch point.

Do you think that will ever catch up to him or is Hill just that good? And do you think that connection gets better over time to where maybe he's cutting that ball loose a little bit earlier in the route to let Hill kind of try to run it down? I think it can catch up to him, right? Like, you know, you think about the against good defenses, you probably can't assume that that's going to be able to continue. You know, I haven't looked at specific, you know, teams. how has he done against good teams versus bad, you know, good defense versus bad defense.

This week's going to be a really good test for that with the 49ers having, you know, arguably the best defense in the NFL. But I think, I think that has to catch up to you, right? Like the fact that you don't have the arm strength to put it where you need to put it, you know, on those deeper throws, 30 plus yards down the field can be an issue. Like, I'd say, like, you know, you talk about, I talk about, like, him being the most accurate. That's probably true 25 yards. and under, right?

So it's deeper, the deeper stuff is where he becomes less accurate at, mainly because of his lack of arm strength. So we'll see. So there's a lot of similarities between him and Drew Breeze, other than the fact that Breeze was right-handed. Breeze very much like Tua did not have a great arm, but Breeze threw was such incredible. He was a great deep ball thrower despite that is what I'm getting at.

Yeah. He threw with so much good anticipation. and timing. He just knew when to cut the ball loose. And it never really was an issue for him to late in his career, especially when it was over the middle of the field. Like throwing seam balls, I mean,

there might not be anyone better than Breeze at that. And he did not have a cannon for an arm. So I do think there's room for two to grow. And if I were to, I would be studying Drew Breeze tape, you know, every minute I get to figure out. Even just from a build standpoint,

size and, you know, build, they're very similar guys. They're just, and they're in their, running a version of the West Coast offense. What's interesting, too, is that if you look at Drew Breeze early in his career, he's,

he's, um, you know, most people don't think of him as an athletic dude or whatever, but like, he had really good pocket mobility, athleticism and quick twitch to him, which Tua has. Yeah. One thing that like with Tua this year, that's been impressive is that he's gotten rid of the ball in a much more timely manner. Like in previous years, like he would just hang on to it, hang on to it and then take this massive hit. and I thought to me that was going to be a death now for him.

And he's taking some hits this year. Obviously he had the concussion and stuff like that. Last game, he took some hits. Yeah. And I think, you know, without Tehran Armstead, we'll be interesting to see how he can play. Like, did he build up enough confidence throughout this rest of the season to maybe not have that be much of a factor for him or not? But the thing is, like, that's right in his line of sight. That's like usually the blind side for most quarterback.

that's going to be, hey, I'm going to be seeing this dude getting whipped, you know, 50% of the plays or whatever. So we'll see how much that affects him. I do think McDaniels help with that, obviously. They're scheming up some throws for him. It's not always a screen, but it is sometimes like a one read throw. And, you know, they've incorporated some RPO's in there. And they've done a good job of giving him a lot of outlets to get the ball out quickly, which naturally is going to make him feel good, right?

Because he's getting in rhythm. maybe he's going to start liking getting the ball out faster more. And dude, when you have Jalen Waddle and Tyree Kill, plenty of excuses to get the ball out quickly because you want the ball in those guys' hands. So, well, sweet. Thanks for playing my supplarative game, even though I put you on the spot. I could have probably prepped you guys with that, you know, but. Oh, well.

I'm glad. I'm glad you said that, John, because I almost said that Tua throws the most catchable ball in the NFL. I'm I'm it's a you know I if I would have if Joe if a if Brett wouldn't have started off with Joe Burrow sideline stuff I probably would have said Joe Burrow but nice I like it I think it's I think the and I actually just looked it up in our on our database or whatever between five throws between five and 25 yards to a it throws the least inaccurate balls in the NFL this year. Wow. there you can. Nice. All right, let's preview this awesome week 13 schedule. There's probably five games we're talking about. We've got another 30 minutes or so to be on the pod. So let's spend some time on each one of these games. I'm going to start by throwing out. You know what? Let's hit Cleveland Houston really quick because it's the Watson return against his former team. I know John, you're a Browns fan. So what does this mean for the Cleveland Browns team? Having Watson come back. and then getting to play Houston right off the bat. So it's, I mean, you couldn't ask for a better game for Watson to come back for.

Thanks, NFL. Right. I mean, it's like they picked a random number for a specific group, right? So, yeah. I think for the, for the Texans, they're, they're playing really bad football right now. And they threw in a towel for the season when they said, yeah, Kyle Allen, you're going to be the starting quarterback now. Kyle Allen's not a good quarterback. And Davis feels not either, but like that's just kind of saying, yeah, let's see what we got

with the rest of the roster at this point. So I think this rejects like a lot of life into the Cleveland Browns because as good as Jacoby Percette has played for himself this year, he's actually been like our ninth highest graded quarterback this year. You know, if you. He's been impressive, like, full disclosure. Right. And like he's had some late game.

bad mishaps where he's thrown like game ending interceptions and stuff. And the Browns have lost what, I think four games by a grand total of nine points. So, you know, if you think about those being flipped for the Browns where it's like, you know, they could, you know, be a seven and four team.

And they probably feel that they could be that with Deshaun Watson as their quarterback. So I think it's going to inject a lot of life into the Browns. I wouldn't be surprised if you see the defense even playing at a higher level just because of him. Like having, you know, knowing who your signal caller is that this guy can win us every single game. I don't think there's a belief in that with Jacoby Verset. Like, why would there be? The dude's never been a winner as good of a person and leader that he may have been for that team and everything that he did this year.

like what you know you put the hand in the the ball of uh the ball in the hands of jacobo burset with a minute and a half to go you're probably not thinking hey we have a chance to win this game you're probably thinking oh crap but hopefully we win this game yeah that said i do think brissette has done exactly what they brought him in to do he's probably established himself as an s tier backup quarterback in the NFL um like you said four losses by nine points i should call you the Cleveland Lions because that's what that's like. But I mean, really, a couple of those other games go

their way. And you're looking at a team with a winning, well, potentially a winning record, knocking on the playoffs door, getting Watson back. So, I mean, the difference, people's perception of Brissette probably literally hangs in the balance of two or three plays this season. Yeah. I mean, it's honestly, it's

that, it's that crazy. So is there a chance, Steve and John, the Browns run the table with Watsonette quarterback. And do they have a shot at the playoffs right now? Yes. So if you look at the- Unbiased, John? Unbiased.

Yeah, unbiased. So like, look at their schedule. Obviously against the Texans, that's a very winnable game. Next week they got Cincinnati. It's probably the hardest game they had left in their schedule. They've got the commanders, which they're a scrappy team. but like they've had a pretty easy schedule so far. Benefit of schedule for sure.

Yeah. That's definitely a winnable game for them. They've got the Ravens and the Steelers again this year. Both of those are winnable games for them. The Ravens are at home. The Steelers are away, so it's a little bit more difficult. But it's not like the Steelers are like a steals of the past. Yeah.

And then who else do they got? They got the Saints. The Saints are not a winnable. Those are all winnable games, and we know that the Browns have had the Bengals number so far over the past two years, three years. So it's very possible they can run the table if Watson is playing at a high level. Steve, what do you think? What's their record right now? Are they?

Four and seven? So they have to go 10 and 7. I mean, went out, that can get you to the playoffs. It says, I agree. I mean, I did at, like, first before, like, looking at their schedule anything, I thought, no. But now that I'm looking at it, looking at the playoff picture, like, 10 and 7 puts them right in it. And like you said, if they can just, and I've been asking for them to do this all year, but if they can just tinker, like, one or two things on defense and then just let Deshawn Watson just go after it,

I mean, six wins in a row with that schedule. I mean, it's not out of the question in any way, shape, or form. I think, like, I think it really hinges on that Bengals game, because I think if they win that Bengals game, they carry that into Baltimore. Because I think Baltimore is, I don't know, they're teetering on something happening in there. I feel like they're, like. In a bad way you're saying? Yes, like, it's all kind of, the foundation is crumbling a little bit,

but nobody sees it yet. And I think Cleveland can jump on that, especially if, you know, Baltimore drops a game or two before that, before that. And, yeah, I don't think it's out of the question at all. 10 and 7 probably gets an AFC team, the six or seven seed in the playoffs. And I think Cleveland is in play for that. Now that Watson's back. So is there any margin of error then? Like, can they go 9 and 8?

No. It's got to be 10 and 7? Because of the teams that are in front of them right now, Patriots, chargers, jets, they all lost to them. So, like, they are out on those tiebreakers and they would have to, like, really get a lot of luck there. I think it would be unless, like, those teams start collapsing. And I think those teams all have a really good shot of it at least being nine and eight. So I think they have to win out to make the playoffs. Yeah, I agree.

I agree as well. All right. moving on so this one o'clock slate has four games that well sorry three games that include playoff teams like teams that are currently in the playoffs we have the Jets at minnesota with the next game i want to talk about that's at the beginning of the year no one in the world would have thought this would be a relevant football game come week 13 but that's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes the Jets the Jets got dealt a really nice favor last night by the Bills with them knocking off the Patriots.

That's big time for them. Yeah. Oh, yeah, for sure, expected outcome. But point being is like, you know, they're, yeah, they needed it. They needed as many of those breaks as they can get. Minnesota still seems like the most overrated team in the league to me, but they still find a way to win all the time. So I don't know.

What do you guys think of this game? Yeah, I think, one. thing too. People, the Jets have one of the best defenses in the NFL. And I don't know if people around the NFL do that. The fact, so they have, you know, sauce Gardner, I think, has been, he's been phenomenal this year for them. And so good. When you talk about injecting a top tier cornerback like that to an already pretty solid defense, it like just raises the level of that defense. And then you look at the rest of the defensive unit, they don't really have any. like weak holes there. They're strong up front. They have a good scheme. And then they're good in coverage. And it's like, where do you really pick these holes?

You can't, are you going to test Sauce Gardner, who's given up, like, essentially nothing this year? So that'll be an interesting battle, like, how much. Sauce doesn't travel. They don't travel their quarterbacks. He's going to be strictly at left cornerback the entire time. So, and DJ Reed has been a very underrated cornerback on the other side for them. So I think it's going to be a really good matchup.

And Kevin O'Connor does a really good job of moving Justin Jefferson around to get him favorable matchups. But when he does line up against Sauce and DJ Reed, it'll be, I think it would be a fun battle there. For sure, I think I said Wednesday, Steve, that the jets are like an elite edge pass rusher away from this whole defense just being dominant. They don't have a terrible pass rush, but they could use, like, whether it's through development, you know, Jermaine Johnson or or even adding another guy to that. Like they, that would really take them to another level.

So yeah. And they've got two just, they've got two like CJ Mosley's solid in like linebacking core. I know we talk about how it's not this most important position, but like they have sideline to sideline guys, guys that make plays at every like all over the field. And I think that there's a lot of merit to that. I think this game comes down to,

I mean, is what is Mike, White. Like, because I think that it'll be a battle. I think it'll be a low-scoring game. I think it'll be a battle between the Vikings' offense and the Jets defense. But it's a matter of, can the, is Mike White, can he at least put some points on the board and keep them on task? Agreed.

Yeah, it would be interesting. He had, you know, he was only pressured on like three dropbacks in his game, last game. So when you don't, you don't get pressured, everything. looks really good for you. Right. Most guys in the NFL that are playing quarterback, if they don't get pressure, they can at least produce some numbers. He just, he's keeping them like way more on schedule than Zach Wilson. That's exactly right. Like he, yeah, he runs the offense like it's supposed to be run. Jack Wilson did not. The offense that you've seen Jimmy Garoppolo managed very well over the years, despite all of his limitations. So, uh,

Yeah, I'm probably still taking the Vikings, the home team here. But I do think it's probably a decently close game, assuming Mike White can keep the jets on schedule and, you know, and they put up some points. I think this will be close. Yeah, I agree. All right. Next one, in division game with the Washington commanders and the New York Giants in

East Rutherford, New Jersey. I always say East Rutherford, New Jersey, because it cracks me up, but they don't even play in New York. Although they're trying to push to chip. that for the Jets, I think. I don't know about the Giants, but I heard something this week that they're like, it might be impossible, but we're going to really try. That's funny.

I mean, they just built that stadium, right? Yeah, not. Do they not? Yeah. Too long ago? I think after the Giants last Super Bowl run, they built that thing. I was to say, was it like 2011, 2012? Something like that, yeah.

I'm not sure what to make of this game, guys, because I don't think either team is very good, but they've both been very surprising. And, you know, the Giants are certainly a limited team, but they've been coached very well this year. And I don't know what to make of Washington and Tyler Heineke. I really don't. So I'll just tell you, Heineke has a 50.7 passing grade this year for us. There it is. So, like, so what was the game that he threw a, like, a yellow ball down to Terry McLauri?

and he like ripped it out of the it was the ravens wasn't it he ripped it out of the hands of the defender for like at the one yard line and they they have a game winning touchdown drive or whatever yeah i think that was the raven yeah and like so like his his playmakers are like bailing him out on that type of stuff like he legitimately threw a yolo ball under threw it had it in the hands of the defender and terry mccloren mossed him and and you know people are like oh he's that dude or whatever and it's like like that was 100% Terry McClure. Like,

what you're talking about? So like, for him, it's like, he's scrapping. I like him as like a, like the type of dude he is. But like,

man, he doesn't know, like for what he is. Like he's a backup quarterback in the phone. He's not a starting quarterback. So like he's a guy that can inject life into your organization. You need to him to start like a game or two. He cannot be.

I see what you're saying. Yeah, he can not be. I thought you were, I thought you were going more personality. wise. Oh. His stick just bothers me so bad, dude.

That's, that's, for, for a game or two, right? Like, as you're back in the quarterback, I need to inject some life and be like, hey, let's, like, keep this energized. But, like, he's not, like, like, his grade kind of, this shows it. He's not the dude. So, like, this is, these are two super fraudulent seven win teams. You know, and I think, like, I think in our, so, like, PFF's power rankings, we have the commanders at 16th and the Giants at 20th.

I respect that though because not many like publications people would do that because so much of it is just looking at record and seven wins there they are they're in the playoffs right now like playing that game but yeah I I completely agree like they are both fraudulent teams the problem is is that like this game gets one of these teams, one win closer. Now they're eight wins. You just have to like, whichever team wins. And then they just have to really scrap. Sleepwalk the rest of the team. Yeah. Yeah.

The, um, I would probably put this win on the, for the, the commanders. Um, because their defenses is actually played really good so far. And yeah, we'll see. Yes. We'll see what if that maintains that, but they have a, uh, a, uh, really good, like, success rate against, EPA per play against, like, a lot of those metrics. And then they're getting, they're starting to get Chase Young back now.

So that'll be interesting how. Yeah, he is playing this week, right? I believe so. So we'll see. But like how much that helps them. So, yeah. But they both are, they're both going to be like the one and done in a playoffs. See if they both made it.

100%. Yeah, I think, I think Washington probably, wins this game. It's tough, though. Oh, man. This game doesn't excite me. Like, because I just know they're two fraudulent teams. Yeah.

You know, like, maybe, maybe, like. The Lions beat both of these teams that says all you need to know. Oh, yeah, there you go. Yeah. By the way, what is the Lions record? They are, four and seven. Four and seven. Do they, they have like a, like an,

outside shot at getting into the playoffs, don't they? It's not that. It's not that crazy. Crazy, actually, because they have tiebreakers over every team above them. Yeah, and they have the 30th. So they have the third easiest schedule remaining

according to our numbers. Yeah. Yeah, they play Jacksonville, Houston, Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota. Yeah, Minnesota. Yeah, Minnesota. Do they play Houston? No, it's the Jets.

They play the Jets also. They have six games left. Don't they play Jacksonville and Houston? I don't think it was Houston. Oh, I thought someone was looking at it. That's to say, like, I mean, the Giants and the commanders do get themselves again in two weeks. So that's great. Like, if a team swept the other team, that puts them in the, that pretty much puts them in the playoffs in the NFC.

True. The NFC, like, they're right there if they win both of those games. I just, I kind of agree with you. This game doesn't totally excite me. I think the commanders win just because it's talent beating, beating out talent or beating out lack of talent. And other than that, I just think that it'll, it'll just kind of be a bore of a game in a way. Yep. All right, we can move on.

Sorry. No, I was going to say like 1713. Yeah, right. Yeah, right. It'll be an ugly game. Heineke'll throw, one or two bad picks. I will say the development of Daniel Joe is not certain the ball over, though. This year has been what has put the Giants in the position that they have been,

his ability to take care of the ball. And I think that comes from Daibol a lot. Agreed. Titans at Philadelphia. That's a good one. Yeah, that's a very exciting game. Yeah. So the Titans are, like overall, they're the kind of.

of like a boring team right the way they play football but when it gets to this time of year for whatever reason i'm just way more interested in what they do than early in the year i don't know why that is but and i love mike rable so and i'm a huge jelan hertz fan i have a lot invested into this game so i'm very excited rome on your fantasy teams oh yeah true you know getting a j Brown versus his old team. Like, there's, there's, there's a lot, there's a lot of good storylines in this game. And I, I, and the thing is like the Titans are, like, they're going to, like, this is going to be a low-scoring, like, slug fest.

So, like, the game we just talked about Washington, New York is going to be a low-scoring, like, probably four fest. This one is going to be, like, like, like, you got really good schemes and good players and, like, what is Brabel going to do to, like, shut their. down this Eagles offense because you know that team is going to become ready to go just because they literally always are under under variable. I think I think the Titans are going to come in there and win this one. Woo. Okay.

I'm looking at their defensive numbers is what makes me lean that way because their run defense has been solid all year. I mean, they're number two in the NFL right now and yards per carry given up. in the run game. And early in the year, the first six weeks of the year, their past defense was not very good. They were giving up about like a 106 passer rating. It was, they were kind of getting thrown all over to start the year.

But in the last six weeks, they're down to, like, they've improved insanely on the defensive end. Like, they were weeks one through six, they were giving up 8.4 yards per 10, 106 passers. rating, you know, 67% completion percentage, which is an 80.7 adjusted completion percentage. In the last six weeks, that has, that's come down there. It's a two and 80 passer rating and adjusted completion percentage of 74% and just 61.5% completion percentage. Like, this team has completely flipped their past defense. And it's what's really helped propel them to where they're at now.

for sure it's that investment they've made into the secondary is kind of starting to pay off right like they've they've been throwing insane draft capital at the secondary like for the last three years yeah multiple first round picks at corner multiple second round picks at corner they've invested into the safety position quite a bit you're kind of starting to see them reap the rewards of that young secondary and i i do think that that's a big thing and i what is the over under in this game on rush attempts guys are we thinking 80? Oh, goodness. Between the Eagles, I mean, Eagles have just leaned into their run game the last few weeks, and what the Titans do, that's what they do. So, I mean, is 80 a reasonable mark for an over-under on rush attempts in this game? And especially you talk about like Hertz

and his ability to scramble too. So if it was, if the over-under was 80, I would take the under. But like I, you know, because that's a massively high number for a, run. Yeah, for a run play. But like, um, like it wouldn't be out of the question because I think you, the strength of both defenses, while they are both good run defenses, their, their strength is stopping the pass. So I think you, and like getting after the quarterback. So I think you, you,

you want to do things to, to, uh, attack more the weaknesses of the defense and then kind of lean on your strength as a team. And I know that the Eagles are going to try to throw it for sure. So like in this last game, the Eagles had, I think they called had had like in the second quarter alone, like, I don't know, 15 that passes to three like called runs. And like how many of those did Jaylon Hertz actually scramble? I don't, I don't know. But I just pulled those numbers off top of my head.

It's not like it's probably accurate or anything like that. But I remember going through the game. as a scene like wow they didn't really call any designed runs in the second quarter so like they they um want to pass the ball and i think they know that from an analytical standpoint so it'll it'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out though but i think um i think i think i think tannahill is a he gets a bad rap um and he's actually making trailing burks look like an okay receiver which is interesting. Last four games for the Eagles,

65 rush attempts in the total, not just them. 65 total rush attempts, 69 total rush attempts, 70 rush attempts, and they hit over 70. No, 70 again against Packers. So they're getting close to the 80 mark,

and Tennessee runs the ball more than all of those teams that they've played. So I feel like if this game is close, you could see it you could definitely see an 80 rush game now i'm probably taking the under as well because it's very unlikely but i do think that's in the realm of possibilities that you see 80 80 rush attempts in this game yeah that's not like an absurd assertion yeah um i'm probably gonna go with the eagles though here guys i do like the titans i like what they've done i've mentioned my love for rable and how he just always seems to get his team or he gets the most out of his guys. They don't have a ton of talent usually, but he's really just maximizes what they do,

and it's efficient. But I think the Eagles are going to win this one. It is a home game for the Eagles. They play very well at home. I think that matters, and I think that will be the difference. I think Hertz will probably out dual Tanna Hill to a certain extent. They have better weapons there. If they need to pass the ball, and that's very well what it could come down to is passing the ball, I think the Eagles are a much better passing team than the Titans, and they will get it done. Real quick, what's interesting, too, is like, we talk about how good their defenses are, and I just looked at it. We have the Titans as our third highest graded defense, and the Philadelphia Eagles is the fourth highest grade of defense. So, and the weakness of the Eagles are, is their run defense, so.

Yeah. Maybe take that 80 over. Yeah, there you go. I know the fantasy football community would love 35 carry Derek Henry games. him for sure. Yeah, that would give him 200 yards, that's for sure. I mean, we're getting right into that part of the season. We're about, we just hit December, and that's right about when Derek Henry's clock starts kicking into overdrive. So this could be the, I mean, this could be the game

against the Eagles with their run game woes a little bit where the Derek Henry playoff train, where he starts popping off for 150, 200 yards every, every week to end this. season begins. We are in December. He owns the month of December. I know. That's what I mean. So like this is a great game to kick off that run and that didn't start off that late

season push to, uh, you know, end up winning the rushing title and, you know, go for however many yards over like six weeks and all that. I think that this is, this is the perfect game to kick, to start that off. Lucky, lucky for him, he's got five games in December. Wow. Oh, man. That's a lot of, like. Oh, that's right, because it's a five weekend month because, you know, we start so early.

Yeah. Is it five? Oh, he must play Thursday night in the fifth one then. Yeah. So, yeah, he plays Thursday night against the Cowboys. No, he doesn't. Saturday, then. He plays Saturday the 31st.

Yes, yes, correct. It is, it is a Thursday night game, the 29th. I'll say, because there's not five Sundays in December. So he's definitely has a, the last game has to be on a different day. Yeah. Sweet. Let's move on. We got two more games I really want to hit. We're running low on time, but that's okay.

Let's go Dolphins at San Francisco, the Mike McDaniel. I wouldn't say revenge game, but it's the, the apprentice taking on the master game. You know, we saw Anakin Skywalker fail to defeat Obi-1 Kenobi twice and then finally got him in the third game. do we think, but, you know, it was given to him as well. So do we think that McDaniel can put out Shanahan and the 49ers? It is in San Francisco. This is probably, I don't know, Casey Cincinnati is pretty exciting too, but this game has me pretty freaking jacked to watch.

I'm pretty excited about this. Yes, I absolutely agree. And it's funny that you talked to Obi-1, Anakin, because it was like, it was literally the quote I was thinking of. It was like, I'm a master now. Yes. But, yeah, this is, this is like, you know, we mentioned it a little earlier talking about Tua and, you know, his play and without, you know, Taran Armstead.

So that'll be an interesting matchup to look at. But from a schematic standpoint, this is going to be, you know, fun. Like, like, you've got speed demons and yak monsters based on speed for the dolphins. And you've got yak monsters based on just like absolutely beasting over defenders. in the 49ers. So it's like a schematic-wise, they're like similar. And then how they get it done, like, after the catch is going to be really fun to watch. So, I think, I think this, you know, this might be probably, you know, this one and the

Bengals Chiefs one are probably the two best games of the weekend. Just in terms of- It's crazy they didn't flex one of them. I think so, like, one thing that has. happens with flexing is based on like what games, networks protect. They're allowed to protect a game, right? So Chase Pengels were 100% protected by the network.

Hey, we're not losing this game. And preseason, why would you think that Miami 49ers would be able to be protected? But the reason why it didn't get flex to Sunday night is because it's the Dallas Cowboys in Sunday night. And no network. same exactly you're like no matter what who they're playing even though it's the colts and they suck they're not flexing cowboys out of sunday night football like that's a massive viewer base that they're they would lose for that especially when the cowboys are good yeah yeah exactly so um i this this is going to be a fascinating game it's at home for the 49ers i think tua needs some adjustment

without his left tackle i think the 49s pull this one off against the best defense in the NFL i agree i'll take the 49ers there but the offensive skill players in this game is insane. The amount of talent that's going to be on the field at all times because they play for both teams is going to be ridiculous. Should be a very fun game to watch. I mean, the names are honestly incredible. You've got Hill, Waddle, Gisicki,

even some of their secondary options are fun to watch in Miami. Surefield. I mean, it's, yeah, Sherfield, Cedric Wilson. They have super fast running backs in Mostert. Jeff Wilson. I wonder if Eric Ezud Kama can get on the field at all. He's another yak demon. But then San Francisco, you've got Debo and Iyuk and Kittle and Christian McCaffrey and

Eli Mitchell. Like there is a ton of speed and a ton of talent all over the place in this game. And it's really should be a treat. But I mean taking the 49ers, I think Miami is going to have a hard time adjusting to Joey Bosa. I think. I'm sorry, Nick Bosa. Nick Bosa.

I think Miami wins if Tua is, has one of the top three fastest time to throws this week. I think that's what it hinges on. I could see Mike McDaniel because the one weakness in San Francisco second, or on their defense is their corners. If they had one, it's their corners. And I think that I could see Mike McDaniel, especially with Taran Armstead being out,

I could see him just saying, we're going to move, we're going to go fast, we're going to get the ball out. We're not even going to try our best to not let these. these guys get to let this pass rush get to us. And so I think if they can work a quick game and get that going, I think Miami can win. And I think Miami's going to win.

I'm going to go contrarian. I don't feel super confident about it. But I think Mike McDaniel is going to come with a good game plan. I think he's going to, I think their weapons are just going to end up winning out over San Francisco's weapons. Fair, I'll take it. Yeah. It's your take.

It's your take. We'll live with it. I mean, it's hard to argue against it, right? Like, what we've seen offensively from the Dolphins so far, you know, for me it's a big question of like, how much does Tehran Armstead, the loss of him going to affect Tua? Because like, that is a massive security blanket that you have knowing like, okay, my first read isn't there. I have time to get to my second read just because I know I'm protected. How much, like, if you go to your second read and.

on the very first play you go to your second read, you're getting smoked from that side. Like, does that shake his confidence? What is it, what's it going to be? How much does Mike McDaniel adjust, you know, for that? This is a nice chest mask game because both, both offensive coordinators, you know, they're the head coaches. They, they can go deep into their bags and they're, they're very good at maximizing what they have and what they don't have. Yeah. Yeah, if Nick Bosa pops Tua early, it could rattle him and it could turn into a long day for Tua.

But if he's able to protect himself and get the ball out and kind of stave off that pass rush that will inevitably get home, but if he can push it off as long as possible and build the confidence and get the 49ers on their heels a little bit, then I think that I think that's where they'll win the game. is just by staving it off long enough and putting San Francisco in enough conflict to keep to a clean until, you know, like mid-second quarter. And by that time, they've gotten kind of into their bag and they're feeling confident. Yeah, I think both they both like to use play action a good bit too. So that could help to a, I just, as long as we see a couple different iterations of YLeak, I'm going to be happy.

I need to see some drag nine. from the tight ends there, Gisicki and Kittle. As long as we see that, maybe even throwing a Kyle Uchek there, and I'm happy. There you go. It's my favorite play. Yeah, two has run play action almost 43% of its dropbacks this year. It's quite nuts. Yeah, I didn't realize it was that high.

Holy cow. Yeah, neither did I. All right, the big doozy of the game, arguably the two best QBs in the league going head-to-head, the Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati. The Chiefs are pretty secure in their standing within their division. The Bengals, however, are really hoping to get a win to take a firm grasp of that division. This is definitely likely to be a playoff matchup as well. So very exciting on all fronts.

If you appreciate good quarterback play, especially if you watch the Heineke-Daniel Jones game earlier in the day, you are going to be very excited to watch this. because this is just phenomenal stuff. This is like, you know, we've complained all season about the schedule being week and just some really mass slates, but, you know, this is a great way to cap off a really good day of football. Even though it's not the night game. It is probably the game of the week, I would imagine. And I don't know, man, I'm excited.

I think another game with a lot of offensive talent, especially if Chase is back. Do we know if he's playing yet or not? Um, he said that he was ready to go last week, but then just didn't because he wanted to make sure or whatever. I think, and it's not exactly the, is it, but, yeah, is he the guy, like, is he the got to say that? I mean, Jameson Williams once said he'd be ready for training camp and then he hasn't, he hasn't played a snap yet. So, yeah, I think, I think, I think Jemar said to the media he's playing this week. Okay. I hope, I hope so from my fantasy team.

I'm going against you, Brett. in our league, by the way. What's of the three, John? The dirty dozen league. Okay. Yeah. The one that matters for you then.

The one that matters, exactly, exactly. And the one that, like, for whatever reason, you decided to play the Patriots defense last night. You forgot the recent... Did they really? Yeah, you forgot to set that lineup, apparently.

Oh, no. But, but, yeah, so... Pokemon got you. Yeah, Pokemon got you. But, From this game, it's like, it clearly is the game of the week. Obviously, I think Tony Romo and Jim Nance are probably going to be on the call.

It's a CBS game, so I'd assume they're on it for the 425 slate. Romo's going to be slightly aroused the entire game, talking about Mahomes and Borough. I mean, who wouldn't watching them, right? So, but, I mean, it's two of the S quarterbacks in the NFL, two of the best teams in the NFL that you can make cases, especially if Jamar Chase is back. and playing. I mean, this is, this is slated to be a phenomenal game. Last, you saw last year, you know, the Bengals had their number, went, went two and all against them.

Both, both times had second half comebacks and obviously in the playoffs, the Bengals won in overtime at Kansas City. So, you know, I think this is going to be probably another high-scoring affair and lots of thrown in lots of big-time plays. So I think I'm really looking forward to this game. So you got. Can we get to 90 dropbacks? Yeah, easily.

I think you'll see over 100. Ooh. I mean, this is the exact opposite of the Titans game. I mean, the Titans were like, oh, over under 80 rushing attempts. I mean, does Joe Mixon's not back, is he? I hope so for my fantasy sake. But if he is back then I, then maybe we see more running in times. But still, I think that this will just be a quarterback duel.

This year. I sure hope so. Regular season last year, Joe Burrow had 45 dropbacks. In a playoff game, he had 42 dropbacks. So we're going to see a lot of passing in this one. I just know it. And this year, too, like, one of the things that looking at for Joe Burrow, when, whenever, so like, whenever they are, have a, you know, it's an even game or, like, you're not expected to pass and they pass, like, he has been phenomenal over the past two years. So, like, when teams don't expect them to pass, like, he just shreds teams, essentially.

So if you, a lot of things of what part of it is, like, Joe Burrow getting into 12 personnel or even if they're in 11 personnel and in, running situations. He's been phenomenal in those types of situations. And then we just know that Mahomes, it'll be interesting to see because like one thing about this, this Bengals team, their defense is highly underrated in my opinion. I think they have like a top five defense in the NFL. I completely agree. Because he's been on that train the entire season. And it was that way the last year. Like you don't make it to the Super Bowl with just a mediocre defense. Like there's no like superstar talents on their defense, but they don't have weak holes in that defense. They have a really stout run team up the middle.

They get pressure. They have a great scheme where you don't know essentially. One of the things that they did against Mahomes last year is like they would line up with five or six on a line of scrimmage, making it look like they were going to blitz every play and they would drop out or blitz. You didn't know what was coming. And then back in they would show two high or one high. And you didn't know if they were going to be in.

four, two, six, three, one. It didn't really matter because they would just switch it up all the time and they did a really good disguising it. So, yeah, there's going to be a good chess match up here. And I think the Bengals are going to win. Ooh, okay. So, John, you said they don't have any weak holes on defense. Does that mean they have strong holes or good holes? Or?

They don't have a weak link, you know? So, like, they're strong all across the board is, in my opinion. like defensive play and, you know, this is going into this deep order, but like if you have a weak link on defense, that offense is going to pick at it every single time they can, they have a chance to. Like if you have a bad running game, you know, run defense like the Cleveland Browns do with the defensive tackles and linebackers,

why wouldn't a team just continue to run it up the middle of the, of, against them? Because they, we've seen time and time again, they can't stop it. And that's how teams have beaten them this year. The Falcons did it. The Chargers did it. the Patriots did it.

So like that's how they've lost a lot of their games because their run defense is bad. And the Bengals don't generally have like a just a massive weak point in their team unless you could say that they have, you know, they're not great in any one category. They're just not super weak in any category, if that makes sense. For sure. And, you know, we appreciate you doing a deep dive into the Bengals holes there. Brett's right oh man

I'm glad you said that though because I've been on that I like Brett said I've been on that train all year of like they're just a very they have a very lot of continuity and they're just a rock solid group all around like arguably their weakest link

is probably Eli Apple but they but he's played well enough outside of like the Super Bowl like that he's not even that he's not even a weakness really Brett's still laughing in his own joke yeah Brett's up in a moment I've recovered now I've recovered now you guys can stop staring at me funny

yeah no I mean I'd like to say the Bengals are going to win this game the Chiefs have just been very good of late oh man this is really hard for me. I'm probably, oh, man, I don't know. I'm probably going to go to Bengals. I'm going to go Bengals here. Think about this too, right? So last weekend's the Titans, Bengals' defense, like, put up their highest-graded run defense game against Derek Henry and them. The chiefs don't run it strong. Their strength is in coverage. And when they have to stop the pass, they can stop the pass. And when they need to get after a

quarterback they can get after their quarterback. They have the ability to morph into what they need to do on defense, which is kind of like what we've seen, you know, over the years for the Patriots, where they have to, they do what they have to do from a defensive scam point. Obviously, you know, without Tom Brady, they're a completely different team, but the Bengals have been playing phenomenal football since, you know, over the past, you know, month and a half. Not to say that the Kansas City Chiefs have any either. You know, we know what type of caliber team they are. It's just, I think it's going to be a slug fast. It's going to be a close game that's going to come down to the wire. And I think, I think the Bengals are going to pull it out again,

especially at home. Yeah, the home thing really doesn't matter. Yeah. And like, yeah, when I look at it, it's the where's, where's the one spot where someone has a leg up and I think it is Cincinnati, Cincinnati defense, not necessarily having the leg up, but Cincinnati defense against the Kansas City offense is more of a even match than Cincinnati offense against Kansas City defense. So I think Cincinnati will have more opportunities to make plays. And like you said, they went two and oh against them last year. They had their number last year. And I think that there's merit to that as well.

Agreed. All right. So we all took the bagels. Yep. I'm sure. I'm sure. I'm sure my homes will make us all eat crow come Monday. But for now, I still think it's the right call.

I'm looking at the schedule again. I can't believe they lost those Colts in week three. There are some, the fact that the Colts have four wins. And like, I think all of them, even the Broncos, some of their wins are, it's just, it's a, it was a weird early start to the season for. everyone. It really was. Oh, man.

All right. I think we've acquitted ourselves well here today. John, thank you so much for coming back on the pod, talking QB play, talking week 13 matchups. This is going to be a week to remember in the grand scheme of this season, and I'm glad that we had you on for it. Yeah, my pleasure. It's always fun talking ball with you guys.

We didn't get to the college quarterbacks, but they all suck, so. There you go. You heard it here first? Yeah. Big talk, they all suck. I think that's, I think that's. That's the right play. We all got super excited last year, and then we started watching the games, and now they're just meh. And on to 2024 for all those quarterback, the 2024 class for all those people who want to get excited again about quarterbacks in college. Quineers and Connor Williams. And then this time next year, John's going to come on the pond and be like, they all suck. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So we'll have John on for QB talk in the draft season and draft

process for sure. But John, real quick, before we go, looking ahead to 2024, are you in on Drake May or are you out? Well, I mean, he's a true freshman this year, right? Or is he a red shirt? Or is he a true freshman? I thought he was a red shirt. I think he's a true freshman, but we have to look that up.

But like, well, I might be way wrong. I thought he was a red shirt because I thought they redshirted him because Howl was there last year. You might be right. I don't know. But he's listed as a freshman this year and he's looked really good. a freshman this year. So I think he, um, I think he can develop into a, you know, a top five type quarterback. And if he continues to play like he's been playing. So, you know, you know, I think he is

the highest graded quarterback for us this year. Like it's not the, not the highest. It's like a top three grade for us this year. So I was just said, that wouldn't surprise me. It's, it's probably battling with, from, with like Fordham's quarterback or something like that because you guys do all the small school school. Right. Right. It's like Fordham and, you know, some like Mountain West guy, I'm sure we'll be, or no, the Coastal Carolina guy. Yeah, right. It's, I mean, the thing is, though, it's like, for him it's been obviously a phenomenal year. He's 20 years old, so you're probably right.

He is a redshirt freshman. Yeah. So, like, you don't, you don't turn 20 years old in your true freshman year generally. So, but I think, so he might, you know, year one for him played phenomenally. He might, if he does the same thing again next year, he'll probably come out. And he's what, six, four, you know, like he's got the prototypical size and everything like that. He's not like. Great athlete, too.

Yeah, he's, like it's just, and he's got like a, like his, you know, you look at his parents. Yeah, yeah, exactly. You look at his siblings and stuff like that. They're all like collegiate athletes at a high level and stuff. So, yeah, for him. him. I need to obviously, we obviously need to see more from all these guys. Like, we always paint these guys as like the next greatest thing. And then all of us, like, all of a sudden it's like, uh, maybe not. So we saw, we saw Sam Howell take a step back in his, his senior year,

uh, in a sense. But like, he's got some good plays and, um, you know, you see all the talent that he does have, but it's like, yeah, you know, it's funny though. You talk about the for ham guy he actually is like a one of the top graded quarterbacks this year i knew he would be no his numbers are ridiculous oh my i do think six touchdowns yeah holy crap yeah yeah his numbers i just knew i like i knew he'd be up there but you uh i think we talked like five or six weeks ago and you told me you're you're i think you were like have you happened to see any of this for him kid he's and i was like no why i think you've been You mentioned, like, his big-time throw rate or something, and I was like, oh, okay.

So I did end up watching some, some Fordham tape. I only had two games worth, but. Good news. Most of his big-time throws I saw were, like, wide open, wide receivers down the field, legitimately. One thing to take it with a green assault right now is that, like, we do so, we do great, we grade so much right now, like, FBS and FCS. None of the FCS stuff is reviewed at this point. That will change in the offseason.

but we review all our FBS stuff because that's obviously more important whatever but yeah goodness Lindsay Scott paid from Incarnate Ward Fred Peyton of Mercer Theodea of North Iowa they're all the highest graded quarterbacks and in FCS and they're like 94 93 level of comp is just slightly different down there a little bit. Just a bit. I mean, even the ACC is garbage, so Drake May is that. And then there is Grayson McCall.

He's, like, just behind Drake May, so at Coastal Carolina. He can actually play a little bit, though. He can. I will say that, yeah. He's going to come out this year, and it'll, well, it'll be interesting to see, like, from just a pure grading standpoint, the dude has been, like, a winner at Coastal Carolina and grades extremely well. And if you were to, if you were to put gun to my head right now, which quarterback I'd take

top of the draft. in the off season, we'll just, I haven't, without studying these guys' tape, I would say Bryce Young, but that's, yeah. He's the guy I want to hate the most because he's literally the size of my seven-year-old. Yeah. But he's definitely the safest at this point. I'd say so, yeah. Stroud, I can't trust Stroud as far as I can throw him.

I argue with, I've argued with people for a year and a half now that Stroud isn't, isn't it, because in, I watched, I watched closely two of his games last year, Oregon and Michigan. both one at the beginning of the season, you could excuse it's like his first or second game starting. But then in Michigan, he crumbled, just like he did against Oregon. And then you talk about this year against Michigan again. And he crumbled again. Like literally nothing from him in the second half.

It's not like he played great against Notre Dame either. Right. No. Until he realized, oh, this is not a good team. And then he shredded them in the second half. But like Michigan was a good team and he went into his shell. And was he the problem against,

Michigan, no, but he wasn't the solution that you would expect a top. He didn't elevate the team. Yeah, exactly. You need to see that when you're drafting a guy in the top 10. When he has receivers that he has, like, you have to be able to elevate. Like, at least you have to get them the ball and put them in a position because they're, they're all ball winners. They're all route winners.

Like, they're good. And the fact that he wasn't able to utilize them in a way that, you know, opened up their offense against Michigan is concerning. Yeah, give me, give me another year. Give me Caleb Williams. Yeah. Caleb Williams is probably the dude. Yeah, I think you were,

youers could definitely jump up a notch or two as well next year. Yeah, it's his first year starting. I want to see him in year two because he'd be my number two guys of right now. And he's technically the age of a true freshman as well. People have to remember that. Yes. He was, he was an early enrolling. He actually, his first year at Ohio State was he was in high school still, basically.

Yeah. And he got hurt this year earlier. the area he had that AC sprain. Yeah, they beat Alabama if he doesn't get hurt. 100%. Yeah, 100%. So, well, sweet man. Thank you.

Thank you for being here. Thanks for the extended college QB talk. We dig it. We're going to get out of here. I'm your host, Brett Whitefield. This is my co-host, Stephen Rourke. And again, a special thanks to John Costco from Pro Football Focus. He will be back.

And we are out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.