Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Take Talk Episode 28

Episode Date: December 9, 2022

Fantasy Points' own Chris Wecht (ChrisWechtFF) joins host Steven ORourke (@callmesteveo7) to preview the chaotic Week 14 slate with some hot takes from Brett Whitefield. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hello, everyone. Welcome in to the Take Talk podcast. As always, I'm Stephen O'Rourke, and today, Brett is out, and so we have our very own Chris Weckton here to help. me lead the way for our Friday podcast. Chris, last night was crazy. I did not think we were going to talk about last night's game, but here we are. The Rams came back and won 17-16 against

the Raiders. What did you think of the game? It was trending towards one of the worst games of the year and then became possibly the game of the year. I mean, just an incredible, incredible comeback for Baker Mayfield and the Rams. And I mean, I don't know what to give me. more credit to to Baker and I don't even know how much involvement McVey had on that final minute drive because they had to go so fast but I don't know if it's Baker and McVey deserve the credit or the Raiders that just just like what are you doing man I mean that that's a game where that's a someone gets fired game it has to be I mean I don't know what like Derek Carr made some dumb mistakes like I don't know what the throw was at the end of the

first half like that they were driving in looked like they could have kind of taken a commanding lead and based on the way the ram's offense was moving looked like they could have just pulled away and kind of put them away right there and then derrick car moves into pressure and then just tosses like a little soft floater into the middle of the field and shocking to no one it didn't work. No, it did not. And this is after like, and it was the perfect, like, or the epitome of the Derek car experience, I think, and especially like this year is, you know, to start off

the game, like his first throw of the game was an absolute dime that was a dime into Devante Adams, which was also a crazy catch with the one-handed catch. And then like two plays before that interception, again, he threw a perfect, a perfect go ball to Devante Adams dropped it in. I don't think Devante Adams changed speed at all. It just, it was a perfect, like, right into the bread basket. Everything looked to be humming. The run game was moving along.

They got stuffed a couple times here and there in the red, or, you know, near the red zone, but they made field goals. And then Derek Carr goes and does that. And then it kind of set the pace for the second half, it seemed like, because then the Raiders couldn't move the ball. The Rams, again, equally couldn't really move the ball. for a while. But then all of a sudden, Baker Mayfield,

he channels that inner magic that he has every once in a while, that only he can really channel, because it just always looks so chaotic, and he pulls out of the W. Yeah, it was, it was, man, I just, I'm a, I'm a Derek Carr fan. I think he's better than he gets a lot of credit for. He obviously makes some very boneheaded plays.

from time to time. Right. But he can be a starting NFL quarterback, I think, without a doubt, and win people. He's a QB that we always say, like, is it a QB that you can win with or win because of? He is definitely a QB you can win because of. He's also a QB you can lose because of, but more, I feel like he airs on the side of a QB you can win because of, and he's just, whether it's just been his skill, position weapons, his coaching over the years has never really found the best fit for him right um so i have a hard time

really killing car for this one he obviously that play in the end zone was a backbreaker but you that was probably the only play of the game that i distinctly remember being like how like what is that throw right and realistically you know end of half it's not like they went and scored the next drive. So as far as penalizing throws, that's not that bad, I guess. Right. And he, I mean, yeah, Richard Sherman was probably, he did a great job of articulating what happened on that final drive after the game last night. And he was saying, how did, like, he's like, I want to hear from the defensive coordinator. How are your corners lining up and press coverage every single play and not immediately just bailing because the only thing you can't do is give up big chunk

plays. Right. And it's just like, he's like the corner, he's like, a corner should be going up to the coach and be like, no, why would we run this at this time? Right. Just nobody, nobody seemed to grasp what scenario they were in right then. Right. There were like no checks and balances.

Yeah. No, like the first, I mean, even the beginning of the drive, the first three. plays were just three quick outrouts that Baker threw to 2-2 Atwell. One of them, he caught two of them. The other one was a little bit out of bounds that he couldn't get both feet down. But why is the corner even giving him any outside leverage whatsoever? Like, you should, like, the one thing, they have no timeouts. The only thing you need to do is not let them get out of bounds and get chunk plays.

You should be pushing them inside the entire drive and just letting, like, ending the game that way. Right. Like, okay, fine, they catch a pass, but tackle them in bounds, and that's, you know, 15, 20 seconds they lose each time and to play because they're going to have to spike the ball, but just leaving the sideline open, playing up on the guys. It just, none of it made any sense, which leads me to ask,

do you think this is Derek Carr's last season in Vegas? So his, it's tough because I don't think so, and I don't think McDaniels will be one and done, but it's probably, it sucks for him, but it's probably, you don't get, the same way a coach doesn't get multiple QB chances, yeah, QB doesn't get many coaching changes in the same way. You only get the, oh, he just needs a different coach. and play caller so many times before, you know, the NFL just decides that you don't have it. Right. So I don't think so, but I do, I mean, it's certainly, I think without a doubt, this is going to be Carr's last chance at a, like, this, a coaching QB starting combo that he'll have, barring, you know, like he could obviously be a backup somewhere and then get playing time because of an injury or whatever a reason to start a QB plays back.

one day. But like this feels like his last chance with this combination of the coach and starting QB of, you know, winning something. Yeah, I would just be curious just because I agree with you that I like, I like Derek Carr. I think he can make almost every NFL throw. I'm just, I'm curious to see because like this year was supposed to be an offensive explosion. Their defense was supposed to be coming along a little bit. That's why they went got Chandler Jones. They were trying to beef up that side of the ball, too. But mainly it was we're bringing in Josh McDaniels. We have Derek Carr. We're trying to make this offense go and lead the way for us. It didn't for a little bit. Like it looked shaky. Derek Carr looked

okay from here and there like, you know, throughout the season. But I think they had some missteps. And it finally looked like it was coming together. They were on a three-game win streak. Obviously lost. Their playoff chances are done. I think they're. cooked after that that's pretty that's the nail in the coffin i mean you're yeah i just see it is broken yeah to lose to a team that's starting a guy that's been there for 40 hours that's like i don't know how you come back from that and feel good about yourself as like an NFL team but i just like Derek car i think could be a great quarterback in a situation like um like a jared golf or even someone like like you said, Jimmy Garoppolo, where, like, he's on a team, he's the backup and injury,

or just like a bridge quarterback who I think has, elite's not the right word, but he has a lot of upside on leading a team. And I just, I wonder if the Raiders, if Josh McDaniels get like, you know, we need fresh blood, like this didn't work. Derek Carr didn't really work for us. You know, did they ever make the playoffs with Derek Carr? They did last year. That's right, that's right.

That's right. They could have tied and both got in. That's right. And so like, you know, it's not like it's been this overly successful thing in Las Vegas with Derek Carr. I would just be curious to see if they would move on. And if, you know, if Derek Carr could go somewhere that doesn't necessarily, isn't necessarily in the spot to go get a QB in the draft, but still like needs an. upgrade at quarterback. I wouldn't hate the, like, the Giants if they decide that Daniel Jones is not who they

want to move forward with. So the Raiders can get out of his contract for $5 million in dead cap. So they definitely can do it without totally killing their salary cap. And the Giants never picked up Daniel Jones' fifth year options. So they're going to have to make a choice regardless. Right. So if the price was similar, like how much more expensive? Does Derek Carr have to be for you to say, no, we want to go back to Daniel Jones?

Because, I mean, they're going to have to do something. They're not going to be high enough in the draft to draft somebody. Right, right. They've already moved past that point. Yeah, like a team like the Giants and then Washington also comes to my mind. I know they traded for Garst & Wentz, but they've given up on that, obviously. But I feel like he'd be in someone who could go in and use those weapons and elevate that offense immediately. And then he's got a defense on the other side that is probably.

I mean, finding their way, they've played, or at least the defensive line in the front seven, have played phenomenal this year. And, like, that's a team that, I mean, going from Heineke to Derek Carr, I think that's worth probably two to three wins right there in my mind over the course of a season. Yeah, he'd be the best Washington QB since what, Kirk Cousins, if not, and you could make the argument he's better than Kirk Cousins in certain ways, so even before that. Right, right, which even before, I don't even know who that would have been.

Go all the way back to Doug Williams. Oh, yeah, McNabb. For one year? Yeah. Yeah. And it's just, I think Derek Carr has so much better than this, and I think Las Vegas is like just. This one's not on Derek Carr. No, it's not.

Matt Collins had the same number. If you take his carries and targets, he had the same amount of opportunities as Devante Adams. this game, a game where they could have just put their throat down on the Rams defense that, you know, maybe isn't playing terribly, but certainly is nothing that should be keeping them from putting up points. No. Like, why are they designing so many run plays for MacCol. Yeah.

That's why I had to check is it felt like there was more. There was three in the game, but I swear it felt like they were doing it like every other drive. Right. And just like, why? Right. And like a lot. I don't know what it was, but they kind of went to a lot of weird gadget plays with players that don't normally see a ton of touches for them. They drew up a designed pass play for Josh Jacobs to throw the ball after he hurt his hand earlier in the game.

He luckily didn't end up throwing it. But like this is, I mean, this is one where like the owner needs to sit down with McDaniel and whoever else is making the high. the ultimate decision may be like explain to me what the thought process is here for this right because that's fine like that's fine doing those plays against a team like buffalo or kansas city where it's like we are probably like a small step below them and so we need to go into our bag of tricks to try and even this game out and like try and you know maybe catch them slipping catch you know get one lucky play but you're playing the rams like you should just like you said you should just be a able to line up across from them and beat them up the whole entire game.

Yeah. Because like you said, their defense had been playing better, but their offense was giving them nothing. You were getting every opportunity on offense because their offense was giving you the ball back up until the end of the game, you know, pretty soon after they got it. They were all like, I think in the, what, in the first half, the Rams offense ran like 13 offensive plays, if that. Yeah, it wasn't, yeah.

It was terrible. I mean, I just don't like, I don't know how, like, how and why you're going to so many, like, trick plays, trick run plays with Matt Collins. Like, it felt like a game that Josh McDaniel was like, oh, they've got this guy, Jalen Ramsey, who, you know, felt like he was treating Jailen Ramsey like Jailen Ramsey from two years ago. Right. But Ramsey has not been Jailen Ramsey this year. I do think he had pretty good coverage on Adams last night. but it's Devante Adams. It doesn't, we saw it literally in the game.

It doesn't matter. Just put it up for him. It felt like McDaniel was like, I can't, we cannot throw it this guy. It'll ruin us. Meanwhile, Ramsey has like 120 passer rating when targeted this season. Yeah, I think he's, I think he's given up either the most. He's either tied for the most or tied for second most. Touchdowns giving up in coverage, like him and AJ Terrell are the two.

Granted, he sees the team's best receiver more like a lot, but you know, you've got Devante Adams. That's the point. Yeah. Like you go and get him in the off season. So that in situations like this, it's like no matter what, just get him the ball. Yeah. We don't have to change that offense no matter what the defense does because we have this guy, Devante Adams. Yes.

Oh, well, the Raiders are on their way to a lot of decisions this offseason with their quarterback. and some of the other things, you know, even I'd say McDaniels is probably in question a little bit. Like you said, I don't think he gets let go, but there's at least a conversation happening internally. On the flip side, the Rams staved off, you know, they increased their win total by one. They increase or they move up in the draft or down, I guess it'd be down, down in the draft, making their draft pick a little less appealing to the Lions. And Baker Mayfield might stick around here until the end of the season,

which is interesting because he looked better than he had in Carolina, like bar none. Like there were a couple throws that he was ripping out there that it was like, oh, that's the Baker Mayfield from like 2019, 2018. Yeah, it'll be interesting, especially with Stafford's neck. injury and what happens with that and the i mean McVeigh had all kinds of retirement rumors around him after the super bowl last year and it really looked like he had checked out like a few weeks ago like he was just like I'm just getting through this season he was mad last night if you

watched him on the sideline he was that was the most energy i've seen from him i felt like in weeks and yeah maybe baker gives him some kind of spark to get i mean The Rams are more fun with when McVeigh is trying to have fun. It gets, he can get, because he already has some bad coaching tendency, like play-calling tendencies, when he gets into a rut where he's really not into it, that offense can get so bland and boring. But he, you know, he still is a could play designer. He just, he needs to, it feels like he almost needs it pulled out of him sometimes.

Right. Having Baker there and, like, needing to get a game plan in 48 hours. It probably, like, excited him and, like, gave him some new energy that he hasn't had in a few weeks. Right. They felt, like, so dead altogether. Well, yeah, because that was the whole thing was after this, especially with the way this season is gone. I had heard the McVeigh, Donald, and Stafford are all just walking out the door this season. Right.

But we'll see. Who knows, maybe McVeigh found the fire to coach again because of the one and only Baker Mayfield. All right. Well, I think that kind of covers Thursday. For the rest of today, Brett graciously left us a list of takes that he wants us to go over and talk about to kind of help, or not necessarily help, but help us, yeah, help us preview this week's slate. Brett, even though he couldn't be here, he still wants to make sure he leaves his footprint on the podcast. You got to appreciate that. Yeah, and these are all pretty much, yeah, I think you said this preview.

related to week 14. Yeah. Which it does not look like a super interesting slate, but, you know, there's definitely some games here where some weird things can happen. There's enough like divisional games. And like you said, like there's a couple injuries in different places that make games that looked like potential blowouts or non-competitive games makes them immediately competitive.

But the first one, the first game is probably. I mean, one of the more interesting games of the week, and that's the Lions versus the Vikings. Vikings go to Ford Field to play the Detroit Lions at 1 o'clock on Sunday. And Brett said that the Lions don't just cover, but they also beat the Vikings by at least one touchdown. So I'll let you go up as the Lions fan, but also the Vikings truther of the Vikings.

the podcast. I know. It's a very, it's a weird dichotomy to have because I, like, it's, it's funny as a Lions fan, like the Vikings are probably the team I hate the least. Like, they're the most tolerable. I think I've always, there's always been like a player or two on the Vikings that I enjoy compared to like the Bears and the Packers. But I have been grappling with this game all week. I saw some, I saw some cool stuff. I, I saw some cool stuff. was Brett Coleman dove into a little bit of like Minnesota's usage of cover six against teams and specifically against Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions, which for everyone who doesn't know, that's quarters on one half of the field and then cover two on the other half.

And they use it, they've used it 15 times against Detroit in week three. they forced interception they almost forced a second interception Jared Goff went for about 56% completion percentage he it kind of mucked him up a little bit he didn't handle it super well a lot of times they were bringing that that opposite side cover to safety and they were kind of leaving him almost as a robber and he was undercutting post routes because it was making look like the middle of the field was open and so I'll be interested to see if Jared Goff looks at that and corrects that because I think that Minnesota's past defense can be exposed, but I feel like they're very good at not giving up the big play.

And so I think that's what will kind of make or break the game, is whether Jared Goff can play a game like he did last Sunday, this Sunday. Can he command the offense not turn the ball over? And, you know, other than the one throw at the beginning of the game last week, overall just not put the ball in harm's way. and I think I think he will do that. I think I agree with Brett, and it's probably homerism and a lot and a little bit of bias

and a lot of like wanting to believe in this team going on a run. But it has felt like the Vikings have still been like slipping by. There's been no, they still have not like won a definitive game. And I think that they're kind of, Not necessarily on the decline. They're still winning, but they're plateauing, and I think the lions are rising, and I think that the biggest thing will be the lions increase in pressure

over the last couple weeks is what will win the game for them. I think that they'll cause cousins to turn the ball over a couple of times. I think that's what will lead them to a win. Yeah, I think this is definitely the game of the week. I mean, just big implications. all around for both teams. Yeah. Oh, yeah. And divisional matchup and everything.

The, yeah, the Vikings are, I think, if I remember, they have a plus 10 point differential, which is like by far the worst ever for a... Right. What are they 10 and... 10 and 2. 10 and 2, yeah. Believe it or not. Yeah.

I think you're underselling how bad the Vikings past defenses, though. they are which a little bit surprising they are the they've given up the most yards per attempt in the NFL this year wow I really flipped to that I didn't realize that it flipped all the way to that they passed Tennessee this week I believe they've given up the second most deep receptions this year they've given up

a 92 pass a rating which is top top top five as well. They are a bad past defense. This is, this is, this is, this is James and Williams catches his first career

NFL touchdown game. I don't, I don't think there's any reason that the, there's no reason the lines should not be able to do win by more than a touchdown. Yeah, that's fair. Thank you for correcting my, they're decent against the bad,

the deep ball, because they are not. I missed, I mistook that. You're right. They've been absolutely torch deep. And I just, yeah, I think the Lions, this is a game that they have to win. Like, no matter what, it's a must win game. This is, I think, this week and next week are the two most important weeks for them. Subsequently, I also think that this is a very important game for the Vikings.

Because like I said, it feels like they're teetering in this season could continue, like continue on the trajectory upwards where they keep winning, inexplicably but winning nonetheless but it also feels like they're a janga tower who's like one one wrong block being pulled away from just like toppling over it's exactly what it feels like and they just like continually like falling off the tables like spreading all over like just the whole thing just kind of collapsing no matter what i think they make the playoff like they'll make the playoffs that's not yeah they've got the division close to locked up they think If they win this week, it would be the division for them. They would clinch the division with a win this week.

And the lions are the team that can catch them, right? Yeah, they're the only team that can catch them because it would have to be if the lions won out and the Vikings lost out, they'd both finish at 10 and 7. And the lions would have the divisional. I think it would be a divisional record over. So that's probably not happening. They're making the, yeah, they're making the playoff. Yeah, odds are. And even then, like, even if they did tie at 10 and 7,

I think the Vikings would be in with the wild card anyway. Yeah. So you were right. So the Vikings are top three in turnover where they throw rate enforced. So like they do get opportunities for picks and stuff. Yeah. The lions are actually leading the NFL though at 8.5%. And Kirk Cousins can always, especially like you said,

with the way the lion's pressure has been recently, he can easily get himself into some bad decisions. and the Lions could take advantage of that. Yeah, and that's the one thing that, like, I've hammered on, like, the last couple weeks is that that's the thing that's, that's one of the big things that's changed for the Lions is that it's been, like, the bounces of the ball type thing. They've had, like, a consistent 8.5% turnover where they throw rate all season. It's just that through the first seven weeks, they produced, like, one interception.

And then the last, you know, the last six weeks or whatever, five or six weeks, they've produced like six interceptions. It's just they're converting their opportunity since week eight. Yeah, so they're converting their opportunities now, whereas like beginning of the season, they were giving themselves opportunities, but they weren't converting them. And, you know, that's the difference between ending a drive

and, you know, a drive still going for a touchdown. I think that that's like been the big thing that's brought them together is just like turning over the ball changes, completely flips the narrative of games. And if you win the turnover battle, you win the game. Right, right. All right. I think that covers that game.

Let's, what game do you want to go to next? I'll let you lead the way for the second one since he gave us what? He gave us six. We got five more left. Let's go to the other game that I think is probably the second most interesting. Well, it's probably tied with the other one. but the Bucks and 49ers. So Brett says that the Bucks beat the 49ers

and the Bucks defense forces three turnovers leading the way for the W. I do, man. That last game that they just played against the Saints is really sticking with me. That offense is just, it might be like top three worse in the league like the broncos the rams which maybe now that they can actually be decent like

they're and houston all right so like they're they're like bottom five offense in the league like it's so bad yeah bottom five outside of two minutes in the second and fourth two minutes left in the second and fourth quarter yes exactly they're the worst non two minute drill offense in the nfl i agree with you to see like that saints game is just implanted in there. Yeah, it really, it's really hard to get past that. I mean, Bruce Ariens needs to stop giving Brian Lefich job opportunities. Like, they tried it in Arizona and it didn't work.

And now he did it for him with the bucks. And again, it's not really working. Didn't they tried in Pittsburgh, too? For a little bit? Is he there in Pittsburgh with him too? I thought he was like basically, he's basically gone everywhere with him. Right. Like they've just, he's just kind of like,

like tagged him along in his wagon to everything. Yeah. And I don't know. I mean, Brady, Brady really just needs to like run the offense. Like that's, that's, that's, that's really all it is. Yeah, I agree. If Brady is in control of this offense, I do think the buck's defense is solid. They, yeah, they absolutely could force turnovers against Brock Purdy.

But, man, I don't know. Purdy did a nice job last week of not really putting the ball into harm's way. And that's kind of where I don't know if I agree with this one. That's what I was thinking too is I like, if anything, the way Purdy manipulated defenses, the way he kind of moved in the pocket a little bit. And it seemed like from what like what we saw in the game that he kind of was directing and changing where the line was sliding and things like that and pass protection. And I think everybody's talked at this point about the third down throw to Kittle

toward the end of the game where everybody's kind of pointing to, they think that Purdy had adjusted Kittle, had him shorten his route a little bit, cut earlier. He made the throw with pressure in his face. I don't know. It's funny because, yeah, Brock Purdy is. he's Mr. Irrelevant. He was the last quarterback taken in the draft. He was the last person taken in that draft. But there seems to be a lot of, like, not necessarily excitement, but just like not a lot of nervousness from San Francisco when it comes to Purdy. Like a lot of people in that, like in that building, a lot of things I feel like we've seen this week has kind of pointed to them being kind of comfortable with him, which makes no sense at all, like for a seventh. on quarterback to get that kind of like praise.

But it's what's happening. And I just still like, yeah, I understand that San Fran has Brock Purdy, but their defense is still one of the best in the league. And I think that they could get, I mean, a realistic chance where they could hold the bucks to seven to 14 points and just let they, maybe they go on a cut like, you know, an end of half, end of game drive. But other than that, like, I see nothing that points to the Bucks being able to move the ball for a majority of the game. Yeah, so I think this comes down to two, well, really one main thing in that the only way this happens is if the Buc's offense has success.

Because Soperti's turnover worthy throw weight was third, fourth best in the NFL last week. but his completion percentage over expectation was one of the worst or yeah one of the worst at minus 7.1 percent so what that tells me is he probably you know they're giving him a lot of safe throws and he's just missing some right and so the way this game works out for the bucks is if they can get a lead and force san francisco to not be able to just give party those safe safe throws, check down, you know, just get the ball in Debo, Kittle, Christian McCaffrey's hands forcing him to go down field a little. That's where you get this Bucks defense being able to pick him off and do things from there.

Because he played with the lead the entire time against Miami last week. So they really didn't have to put any stress on him. Luckily for the Bucks, the best part of the Niners defense is probably the run defense. And the Bucs rush offense is complete garbage. anyway. So they're really not losing or gaining anything there. If anything, hopefully it pushes them into passing the ball more. Not that that's been like super successful either. But it's better than Leonard Fournett just, you know, running into a guy, a yard behind, like past the line of his formation. And for a not, like the Tampa Bay is probably the most well equipped

to handle San Fran's pass rush. Like the bucks have let have let up like bottom. five bottom three bottom five pressure to brady this season that's brady that's brady yeah his time to throw is like i think it's the best in the league or if not very close to it he it's not so much the yeah the buck's o line it's brady just being like i know my o line is not what it was last year and i'm just going to get rid of this ball because i'm 45 and can't be taking hits from most of anymore right right i can't take hits like kirk cousins took last week they're the Jets. But the issue, the other issue is, is that, like, Tampa Bay's defense was so good for, you know, the last couple years with Brady, but they've been bottom five, seven per, or bottom

five, seven in the NFL in generating pressure against opposing quarterbacks. Like, in week seven through 13, they're seventh worst, 29.7 percent. And if you six, if you put that out to the, that's being generous because if you put it out to the entire season, Tampa Bay's like fifth worst with 27.7%. Yeah, I don't know. Would you, so my thought, I'm kind of thinking this through. If I was the buck,

I don't know if I would really care about pressuring purdy. Like I'd almost rather, like, I'm just going to fill up as much of the coverage space as I can with bodies so that you, I'm forcing you to make decisions and not just giving you the easy window to make a throw, even if it means maybe I can get some pressure on you and force you that way. Because Kepardy can move pretty well too. Yeah.

I'd almost, I'd rather say, I'm going to rush four every play and that's it. And we're just going to drop seven into coverage and hope that we take up more space than you need to run these scheme plays to get the ball in your playmaker's hands. which that's where I think that San Fran wins out because even if they do play that way like San Francisco has the weapons that I think eventually like they have enough weapons out on the field that over the course of the game I think that they can separate enough they can you know make enough plays that San Francisco scores 21 points and they end up winning 2114 I just like, I just don't trust this Tampa Bay team against a good defense.

Like, San Francisco is still one of the best defenses in the league, no matter what. Like, and I just don't trust the Bucks offense to get the ball down the field enough to where, like, they can separate. Because I think that, I think that San Francisco can just keep attacking you with their weapons, whether it be the run game, whether it be a short pass game, and whether it be their play action pass game, like they can just be, they can be very multiple on offense. And I think that that eventually will wear down the Bucks defense. And I just, like I said, I just don't think the Buc's offense scores enough points. Yeah, I'm, yeah, I'm on that side too.

The only way the Bucks win this. I don't really see the Bucs winning and I don't really see them forcing three turnovers. The only way they win this game is if both, offensive struggle and Brady has to win a two-minute drive again. Right, right. So Brett's out on his own on that one. I agreed with him on the Detroit one. He's on his own with the Bucks one.

I love the confidence. I just don't see a scenario where that comes from because that would be like a complete flip of the script for what the Bucks defense has been all year. And also, yeah, just the Bucs offense is a mess. All right, I think the next one that it sounded like you, well, let's save that one for a little bit. We don't want to waste all the good. I don't want to waste the good ones right away. He says that the Ravens beat the Steelers, which I don't think is that hot of a take.

But the biggest thing that he asked is a bonus question was the Ravens are without Lamar, but why would the Steelers be favored in this? so he ravens beating steelers why are the why are the steelers favorite against the ravens it's not a big line it is raven or steelers minus one and a half yep that's what they're in pittsburg it's in pittsburg yeah which i think that that's if i had to guess i think that's a big reason why they're favored yeah definitely i'm i disagree with them on this one though i think the stealers should favored in this. The Ravens are just, Ravens are not a good football team. They're just, they're, you've, you've been on this train all year. I think you've been the conductor of that one.

They're just not a good football team. Like, Lamar or not, they are just, they're just not good. They mean, they've, they've struggled since the beginning of the sea. I mean, if you look at the early games, sure, they look a whole lot better. But recently, they've just been absolutely terrible. I mean, they've won 10 to 9 against the Broncos. They lost 28 to 27 against the Jaguars, and then they beat the Panthers 13 to 3. That is just not good. That is not what a good football team does. And the Steelers defense is massively different with T.J. Watt in it versus without him. Yes. Yes. The back end is still not great. The secondary is not great. But Huntley, I mean, like, you're not really worried about Huntley killing you through the air anyway.

He had a lot of success with Mark Andrews last year, but Andrews doesn't even quite look like himself either. Have you ever noticed this? Andrews catches the ball, like, so bad for, for, like, how, like, good of a receiving tight end is. He, like, he, like, bibles every single time it hits his hands. It looks, it looks like he's wearing casts on his hands. Yeah. It looks like he doesn't use his fingers.

He just kind of like clamps. It's like throwing. So weird. It is. It is really bizarre because like as you were saying it, I'm like that makes total sense because it almost looks like a toddler catching like a ball the first time where they just go. Too big for his hands. Right.

They just kind of clap it together and just like if it goes in great. If it does like otherwise it might just pop out. He like double catches everything that gets thrown, which is amazing considering how good of a receiving tight-hand he is. Yeah. And yeah, like you said, I think, like, the offense moved okay when Huntley was in last year. Like you said, it was all predicated on Mark Andrews just completely tearing apart the end of the season. But gosh, this is just, I understand why the Steelers are favored as well. I think it's just that it's Huntley's first game, or his first full game starting. The end of the game last, week did not inspire any confidence as like oh Huntley's picking up right where he left off

from last season kind of thing like or even improving it just kind of looked stale yeah when he stepped in last week I mean he went on the what the one touchdown drive yeah so it went on the game basically right but other than that it was pretty lack of daisy colo not a lot of not a lot of movement from him in the offense and so I just they have Do you think they have more weapons this year for Huntley or less? Or is it about the same, would you say? It's probably less, but Marquis Brown was definitely hurt. I don't remember the exact crossover of him playing and Huntley playing last year.

I know he missed in games, though, but it's got to be less. It probably is less. And I just, yeah, overall, the Ravens' offense hasn't moved the ball. and the Steelers have quietly kind of come alive a little bit here in the last couple weeks. Yeah, Pickett still hasn't really shown a ton. Deontay Johnson might miss this game, which isn't great. Is it not great? That's what I was going to say.

In a way, it might be good because, I mean, just the way they use him, I think he's a good receiver, but the way they use him is just like, it's kind of, of just like a waste. Like he's, he's, he's always got one of the smallest A dots in the league. Like, it's kind of like,

it's kind of like, calling a ton of run plays when they target him. Right. Like, he hasn't scored a touchdown this year. Yeah. Pickens,

Pickens should have no problem torching this, this Baltimore secondary. And that's after Pickens kind of went after the, like, coaches. Yeah. Speaking of,

yep, they were both. He was all, he was all up in arms which i don't blame him only getting two targets and like at you know we're being in week 13 it's like okay maybe we should stop just force feeding the ball to dante johnson it's not working out the way we think it is yeah whether that's him whether that's the quarterback whether it's the scheme whatever regardless the horse is dead there's no need to no need to keep beating it it's not going to work but i'm i'm torn on this game though overall

because i think both teams are not very good yeah well yeah that's it they are definitely both not very good but i to me this they're the steelers should be favored not by you know not by a lot and i do think that they should win this game t j wa can get after huntley like Huntley's going to just have to scramble a ton, which he certainly can do, which just I'm not betting on that being how they win this game. Not to mention, the Steelers have tons of experience playing Lamar, who also runs a lot. And this is just like a watered down version of that. So there's no, there's no excuse of like the Steelers don't know how to handle mobile QB.

They, like, they've done this all before. Yeah, that's all great points. and, you know, the Steelers past defense has been overall solid this year. Like, they've had 14 interceptions, yards per attempt is about 7.6, pass ratings, 89.8. They're, you know, probably an upper third of the NFL and past defense. And like you said, T.J. Watt being back just continues to increase the ceiling of that, the ceiling and the floor of that defense. And I think that they could give them enough,

I think they could give tauntly enough trouble. And if Andrews had been playing the way he had been last year, like if Andrews leading up into this week had been putting up the numbers, or at least showing what he showed last year, I think I would go the route of the Ravens. but with Andrews just looking a step slower, just a little bit less effective than he was last season, for whatever reason.

I don't know, necessarily know what that is. But I think because of that, I think I just think that the Baltimore offense, again, will just be kind of stifled by Pittsburgh. And I think it'll still be a close game because I don't think Pittsburgh's going to move the ball a ton either. but I think that overall, I think Pittsburgh takes advantage of one or two more opportunities

than the Baltimore offense, and they end up winning the game. I could see Pittsburgh scoring a defensive touchdown this week, and that's what, like, separates them and it wins them the game overall. Yeah, to reinforce how difference maker T.J. Watt is without, so weeks two through nine when he was gone, they had a pressure rate of 17 percent, and since week 10 when he's back,

it's at 32%. So they near double their pressure rate from one player being on back in their offense. That's crazy. Yeah, it's ridiculous. That's just, yeah, that's crazy. I would have thought for sure it would have been like 7 to 8% but not 15% increase. Yeah, and I'd like, Huntley, if there's one thing about him, it's that he's quick to,

he's quick to escape the pocket. Like he knows he has the talent with his legs. And sometimes he leans on that too much. Like Lamar will like Lamar will stand in and take a hit and throw the ball. Throughout the game, Huntley, he's not, he's not one to do that. I think that they'll have him on the run all day. And like Huntley might go for 125 rushing yards. And like 80 of it might be scramble because I think they'll also do a ton of like design.

quarterback runs and they'll they might run the ball 55 times but i just yeah i just think that pittsburgh ends up their defense ends up stopping huntly enough and kind of neutralizes him in one aspect of the game and i think it'll be his arm and pittsburgh ends up pulling this game out yeah so all right brett's brett's out on a limb with some of these he's on his own with the last too. Yeah. Let's go to the, let's do this.

So he has the Jaguars go on the road and not only cover, but beat the Titans outright. So the Titans are currently favored by three and a half. That feels about right to me. I actually think the Titans should be a little bit of a bigger favorite than that, but that feels pretty right. Yeah. I almost,

I feel like it almost should be like five and a half. Yeah, yeah, something like that. But I don't know, I'm up in the air on this one. I definitely think it'll be a close game. I'm a little surprised he has this take because he is a big Vrable fan. And you both are actually. You did that whole podcast earlier this year,

so he might be one of the best coaches. I don't see, I don't really see Vrable letting his team, especially after how bad they got beat by the Eagles last week, coming out and not playing well for another week in a row. Both these teams are coming off like hefty losses last week. Both kind of, I mean, not kind of. Both got beat up. They got the shit beat out of them.

There's no other way to put it. There's no other way around it. And honestly, they both got beat up in very similar fashion. Both of their past defense got picked apart. The difference is that Jacksonville's past defense has been, lacklust or most of the season. Tennessee up until last week, they had been one of the top three past defenses in the NFL over from like weeks. I think it was like eight to three eight to 12.

Like they had been right up there and completely changed the course of their, the course of their season and like what their past defense had been. Because weeks one through six, they were, I mean, they were worst. yards per attempt. I think they were up there for worst in passer rating. But, you know, going into last week's game from weeks 8 to 12, they were, they were a top five pass defense in passer rating. They had given up an 81.2 passer rating. They'd only given up 1,300 yards passing, 58% completion percentage. Like, they were playing, they'd turned it around a lot. But then Jalen Hertz and A.J. Brown completely exposed them. And on the flip side,

Jacksonville got completely, and it was a litany of just poor coverage, losing assignments, guys almost not knowing where to go, but they got completely torched too. So I think that it's both teams are kind of licking their wounds. Both teams are going to look to bounce back. And I think both passing offenses are kind of licking their chops a little bit of like, okay, maybe we can make something happen here. because like you know there is an opening and they are kind of beat down after the week the prior week yeah i think um yeah go ahead the yeah they're both they're both defenses that particularly the jaguars both defenses that were at different times probably overplaying what the talent they had on their team was

the jaguars are just so young uh they were playing ridiculous Healously well to start the season and have come way back down to probably where they should be given the players that they have right now. Yeah. And the Titans are kind of similar in that, you know, they started off really bad, got it straightened away for a while. But really, really they didn't have the pieces in particularly the secondary to keep that up and then got exposed again. So yeah, this is a, it's a tough one. I don't have a great feel for how I think this one. will go. I mean, the Titans want to run the ball. They should run the ball. They can't really do it

well. And the Jaguars should be able to pick apart the Titans secondary. But I just don't know if it really comes down to Brable. I just don't know. I don't see him letting his team have two super poor showings back to back. Yeah. I think this game kind of comes down to Derek Henry. he's been arguably non-existent. The last four weeks, I think he's for sure gone under 100 yards the last four or five weeks. He's been basically a non-factor. And this is the time of year when he usually explodes. Like this is supposed to be his time of year.

December is supposed to be his month where the explosion and the consecutive 200, 150-yard game starts. And I think that it'll completely come down to him. I think that if he goes over 100 yards, or Tennessee wins. I think if he goes under 100 yards, Jacksonville wins. Yeah, this is, unfortunately, this is just not the best matchup for him. I mean, even if you-

No, it's not. That's the thing. It's not at all. Tennessee is 1.4 yards before contact per attempt since week eight. and Jacksonville is allowing 1.25 yards before contact per attempt, which is, you know, top 10 in the league. So, like, this is not the matchup that, you know, you know, looks like a Derek Henry game.

Right. They really need to, they're going to have to beat them through the air, at least somewhat. And I don't, hopefully we see more of, Shiga Quanko that a rookie fight out, especially with Traylon Burke's probably missing this game for being in the concussion protocol. And Robert Woods just looks like a shell of himself. It would be nice if they had their other rookie Kyle Phillips back.

He's been out for a while, though. He's been out for, yeah, at least since week four or five. It's been a minute. So, you know, the more of, man, the more I talk through this, I think I'm leaning towards Brett's take of the job. Jaguars win this game. I just, it does not look good for the Titans anywhere. The only way they win this game is their defense just like really shows up. Right. Which, yeah, which that's the, I mean, that's, I think the big question. I think Jacksonville's defense has just been overall kind of bad

since the beginning of the season. Like you said, they had, they had a beginning, at the beginning of the season where it looked like they were just a bunch of like Banshee mutant guys that just had the longest arms and they could span the entire feet. field. But, you know, they were, they're young and that eventually kind of thing you can't rely on talent alone in the NFL for too long. And I think that's what kind of caught up to them. The biggest thing is I, I think that Tennessee's past defense bounces back a little bit. I think they were, I think they go back to what they had been the previous like four or five weeks rather than what happened against Philadelphia. And I just don't try like, I know Tennessee doesn't have. I know Tennessee doesn't have,

a lot of pass catchers out there right now. But I just, after watching some of the just mental breakdowns by Jacksonville, I just don't know if I can trust them to stop Tennessee in the past game at all. That's fair. Like they had like, it was just some simple, simple things last week. Like with the, there was the swing pass to DeAndre Swift where Muma, the, and then I forget who the other, I think it was a luicon was the other lineback. or on the field.

Like they both bit on play, they bit on the play action and then neither, they just left, completely vacated the right side of the field and that was where DeAndre Swift took a one-yard swing pass for 30 yards. And it's just like little things like that that I saw against the lions that make, that like make it concerning that I don't know if it's just an easy fix. Or if it's just like a one-week fix.

It felt like a lot of breakdowns that are going to kind of, take some time to get figured out. And so I'm going to go with the Titans in this. I think the Titans win. I think the Titans cover. And, yeah, I just, Jacksonville, that was a, it was kind of, it just felt like a telling game. I hope, I hope Jacksonville wins.

I've liked Jacksonville to this year. And I think that they're on the right trajectory as long as they get rid of a lot of their, like, defensive free agents for next year. but I just think that I think Tennessee is a better football team and I think Tennessee's offense will, or passing offense will move the ball a little bit better. All right, so we're split on that one. All right.

Then let's do the Monday night game. So Brett has the Cardinals upsetting the Patriots. I'm actually surprised this even, like this game feels like a 50-50 game to me. So it's one and a half. The line is one and a half. So it's basically a pick-um. Okay, they're in Arizona, too. Yeah.

Yeah. I don't hate that take at all. I think they're both bad teams. Yeah, I really hope that Arizona comes out of their buy with a full compliment of their offense minus Zacherts. Hopefully, Rondale Moore is back. And you have Rondale Moore, D'Andre Hopkins, and Marquise Brown on the outside. Yeah. There's no, you know, Belichick can put it together a good defense,

but there's no reason that he, the Arizona offense, shouldn't be able to move the ball against them. I mean, Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins on the field together is like probably one of the best combos in the NFL. And we just got to see it right before they're by when Hollywood came back from injury. but he was coming back from the injury. So he did play at most of the snaps, though, surprisingly. But he didn't see a ton of targets.

No, not a ton. And he mostly played in the slot because Greg Dorch was out and Rhonda Moore were out. Not that that bad thing, he certainly can play in the slot. But so like really maximize this offense, you have all three of those guys on the field together. Yes, yes. Tray McBride is, I'm a little surprised with him with his, production so far. I really thought he was a,

he was clearly the best tight end coming out of the rookie class from Colorado State. Like he, he looked, and I was surprised when the Cardinals took him because they had Zach Earths, they don't really use a tight end of time. But he, you know,

he can catch the ball. And like he's got, and he's just not, he's not earning targets. He's not, when he's getting targets, he's not doing anything with them. Yeah.

really disappointed with him so far i mean it's we see rookie tight end struggle a lot it's not uncommon but you you would hope to see more from this from the best tight end of the rookie class and especially during those weeks when marquis brown was out you Greg dors and randale more were in and out of the lineup yeah and just there's just been nothing there from him which is really surprising to me and like someone who's very similar to zacker it like almost felt like you were just dropping in a younger version like a younger less refined version of zackertz into their offense yeah because i think he's only gotten like four targets since he's taken over for super low i mean his targets per route run is probably one of the worst than the league i this is this i think this

this this game is okay how much do how much does arizona want to fight for cliff kingsbury's job how much do they really want cliff kingsbury is still in that building because like i think this is like it's the start of make or break time for cliff kingsbury i think he could still save his job because he has you know kiler murray's been hurt they you know they um they had to start colt mccoy they did get a win with him but let's just overall like it's they've been in flux they've had injuries they just haven't had their complete team out there the entire time or like the whole season and so I think that they could go like if they went on a run I think Cliff Kingsbury could give himself a chance for next season but I don't think he's going anywhere unfortunately even even if like

even let's say they finished with six or seven wins you think he stays yeah barring uh burning a locker room revolt like you're saying yeah like i don't see how he's not back they just extended him that's true well i mean i was just say do you think time stays too do you think they they got they got extended together like oh yeah that is is pretty bought into their vision i don't know why i don't know what that vision is yet it's been like we're extended Yeah, they extended Kyler, the GM, and the head coach. So yet it seems like none of them agree with each other on anything. So it's just, it's very, they're in a tough spot.

I think Kyler is good. I mean, he makes boneheaded plays too, but like a lot of times you can see it. Like he's like, I have nothing to work with here with this offensive game plan. Right, right. Yeah, his, in the charge was lost right before the buy, he talked about on that they had a fourth and one. And they basically had, it was late in the game. They don't get it because he said that it was so obvious what the Chargers knew exactly what we were running. It was a screen meant for, I think it was Hollywood running a little flat route with two Hopkins and I forget the other receiver blocking.

And the Chargers, like they just knew it immediately. I forget what defender, but basically just immediately bolts towards Hollywood right at the snap. Kyler's like, I have nothing, that was the play. So I have nothing to do with this. Right. Tells Hopkins, just run down the field and I'll throw it up to you. And it gets picked off because he had nothing else. He really had nothing else he could do with it.

And he basically called out Kingsbury, right? He basically said that in the press conference. He said, we lost before we even snapped the ball. Right. It's like, poor Kyler. What a, it has been quite a roller coaster of a season for him with like the whole contract situation at the beginning of the season. and then he gets hurt and then that calling out is you know calling out kingsbury and then there was also the patrick peterson going on a podcast and saying that kiler's selfish i feel bad for kailer he's

kind of had a rough go of it he just kind of like keeps getting beaten up in some way she well it's like not consistent the way but like in some way he's getting beat up somewhere almost every week he definitely doesn't always have the best attitude um but he it's hard to fault him at times and then he probably is just so used to winning and everything and is probably just not super great at like having emotional awareness about like how to interact with people and show your facial expressions and when you shouldn't I mean there there is a lot of merit to that like a lot of these guys they've been the best at what they've done all their lives especially like a guy like Kyler who's been the best in two sports all his entire life

probably and then coming in and like succeeding and then falling back into what has happened like you know at the end of the last two seasons and then this entire year like it's it's probably it probably is just a completely different dynamic for him and he's trying to figure out like he's still young trying to figure out the emotional maturity and the like what's the right level of being honest in a press conference and being like you know just throwing out coach and player speech just to get you through the press conference. I think he's still trying to figure out that balance. And, yeah, like, the good thing about this is I love New England's defense,

but I hate, like, their offense is arguable. I think their offense is one of the worst. Yeah, it turned right back into a pumpkin following that Thursday Thanksgiving game against the Vikings. Although, as we just said, the Vikings defense is bad. So maybe that is where it just happened. And, to be fair, Aaron, Arizona's past defense the last from weeks eight to 12 has not been good.

They're giving up 71% completion percentage, 12 touchdowns, two interceptions, 106 pass rating. Like they've gotten kind of exposed. Yeah, they really need Byron Murphy back. I don't know if he's supposed to play this week, but he's been out for a while. And it seems to really be taking its toll on their back end. The crazy thing, though, is that with all that, the A-DOT against the Arizona past events has been 4.8 from weeks 8 to 12. Well, they do blitz a lot.

So I wonder if it's probably teams just getting rid of the ball because of how often they blitz and you just dump it. They're also like one of the worst teams against tight ends, which further, you know, would lead to a lower A-dot. usually for most times. True. I don't think I've ever seen below five that kind of caught me off guard. Yeah, that is so low. It was very low. So I guess if New England builds their offense around just swing passes to Ramandre Stevenson,

maybe they have a chance. But I just, I don't, again, it's just I think New England's offense isn't good. and I think that Arizona does have their, they're coming off a by week, they're getting almost their full complement of weapons back. Kyler Murray has had, you know, two weeks to recover and get back to like full health.

Like being able to stay off that hamstring for two weeks is so important. Yep. And so I think that, I think Arizona's offense, I think they score 30 plus points. All right. So you've really, I do.

I think that this will be like a kind of turnaround game for Arizona. I could see them have like flipping the script a little bit and maybe playing better and winning three. It is an elimination game for them. If they lose this, they're officially out of the playoffs. That's true. Not that I think they will. But I think that if they can, if they can finish the season on a strong note, And like show having Hopkins, Brown, Rondale Moore, Kyler Murray, having all those guys healthy,

I think if they can show and go like average 26 points a game for the rest of the season, I think that we will, like, we will look at them a lot differently going into next season. Yeah, yeah. They have it in them. They just, Kingsbury has to get out of the way, essentially. Yeah. Yeah, Kingsbury. just has to not overthink it.

I just, it's, I still, I still will never understand that hiring. I don't, to this day, I don't care. Like, unless he wins a Super Bowl, I'll never understand that hiring because it made, it makes zero sense. No, it doesn't. Yeah. All right. We have, what, one more?

Yeah, probably the other most interesting game. Yes, it is. And it's the, it's the, the game that could argue. arguably set Twitter on fire. I mean, this, like, the discourse between Tua and Justin Herbert all season on Twitter has been fascinating, frustrating, hilarious. It's been overall fun and everything. But the Chargers, the Chargers are playing at home against Miami.

And Brett says that the charges will eke out a close win. at home against the dolphins, Herbert will return to form, and Keenan Allen will have a monster game. Yeah, so this is a, how bad do the charges need this one? It's getting down to crunch time for them. They're still in it. They're, what's... Six and six.

So they really do need this. Yeah. So if they, yeah, if they lose to either... they're Miami or Tennessee the next, they can only afford to lose the one of those team teams basically the next two weeks because then they get

16, 17, 18 is Colts, Rams and Broncos, so those should all be wins, but they really can't afford to lose these next two weeks. Yeah. They got to pick up at least one of them. I agree. And it's, I mean, they did have, who did they play last?

week. Arizona, right? Or no, no. That was two weeks ago, right? Yeah, last week was the Raiders, right? Yeah, that's right, because they lost to the Raiders, right? Yeah. Yes.

Yep, because that's right. The Raiders were on a three-game win street going into last night. So it's both teams coming off of a loss. The, you know, like we said, it is crunch time for the Chargers. Miami can get back on track and is kind of playing for, I mean, not kind of, but they're playing for their division. There is still in it. Like I think that this game matters to them just as much as the Chargers.

And like I said, I'm just super excited for the discourse and just the overall, like what happens with how Tua and Herbert play. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, you want to talk about like, you've got a guy with a cannon of an arm in Herbert that has probably one of the lowest Addots in the league and a guy that probably has arm strength issues with probably one of the better deep ball season so far. So yeah, I mean, it is, it's like if you could just, it feels like these guys should be

on the opposite teams of each other. I was just about to say that I'm like, if we could marry Justin Herbert and Mike McDaniel together. I think we would create the most explosive insane offense, especially if Herbert got to throw out a Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle. I think that'd be the most explosive offense ever. And give Lamar or Lombardi Tua so he can just run his short checkout. Like it's just perfect. Let's just swap to these. Oh, yeah, and then watch Tua just fade out of the NFL

because he just never gets the chance with Tyree. in them. But I, gosh, that's, it's, it's tough because I'm on, I'm on the dolphins here. I think, I don't, I don't think the charges run a ton of man coverage, which obviously is not great against Tua, I mean, Tyreek and Jalen Waddle, although Jayne Waddle is banged up. Is he going to miss this game? And that's what I was, that was what I was going to look up, or I did look up, is Miami, his faced man coverage 15% of the time this year. On 15% of snaps, Tua sees man coverage. The chargers

play man coverage on about 47 and a half percent of their snaps. Yeah, most of it being cover one. And it's, they're going to have to make a decision because we all know the reasons that people don't play man against the Miami. It's because nobody has corners that can keep up. Yeah, Tua has 130 pass a rating against man coverage, 125 against cover one specifically. So, oh, that's not great. Do the charges, so it's going to come down to do the chargers make an adjustment

to that? Do they play, do they play more zone? Or do they say, nope, this is who we are? Which, that's kind of how Brandon Staley is. I don't like he's fake sharp Brandon Staley but I just I think that's going to be the I think that is the narrative of the game because I think Justin Herbert's going to push the ball no matter what I think that he started to see that I have to take things into my own hands a little bit and he does have Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back and so like they're their they're

healthier on the offense finally. And I just, like I said, I think Herbert is finally realizing that I can't let Lombardi neuter me. I need to just do this on my own. Yeah, I'm not, I'm not against the Chargers offense being an issue in this game. Right. It's more their defenses. I mean, whatever Miami wants to do, they should be able to do in this game.

If they want to run, they're not even that good of a running team, but the chargers are not good against the run. They should be able to run the ball. If they want to throw the ball and the chargers roll out a ton of man, even if they don't, it doesn't, like, really matter just because of Tyreek and Waddle. But if they do stick with the man coverage, they're going to be for a long day chasing Tyree Kiel around the field. was weird that Miami basically made Rahim Moster the lead back again last week after Jeff Wilson looking pretty good, which I don't get. I'm not sure what the thinking is there and what they do moving forward, but Chargers are bad against the run. If they want to run the ball, they should. Not that they do run the ball a lot.

I just, I don't know. I don't see a way the Chargers defense slows down Miami. Yeah, I think it's a shootout because I think that with Herbert having all of his weapons back, having Josh Palmer, having, you know, basically having Josh Palmer and Diadre Carter would not be their two lead receivers. I think it's going to have, I mean, they did. They had Keenan Allen back and you saw Herbert. He trusts him. He knows he can get him the ball. We know he feels that way about Mike Williams too.

He did not feel as confident with Carter and, you know, Palmer running. running and, you know, being the number one, number two guy on their offense. And so I think, I think, and I hope that it's going to be a shootout. I think I agree with you that when it comes down to it, I think that Miami, Miami can stop the Chargers once. I don't know if the Chargers can stop Miami once. Yeah, yes, yeah. I think this could be like a 35, 31 game in the difference just being that Miami held the Chargers to a field goal instead of a touchdown on one of their drives.

Right. I think both I think both quarterbacks throw for over 300 yards. I think that this is, I think this turned into a bit of a shootout. I kind of, I agree with that, but I just, I just don't think, I just don't think the Chargers can step up when they need to. Yeah, what did San Francisco do last week to really slow down Miami's offense? They don't run a ton of man, right? The big thing was that Miami, well, Tua was probably the most inaccurate

he'd been all season. Yeah, he had a bad game. I think he had like 27% off target throw percentage last week. It was definitively his worst game of the year. And then the other big thing was that San Francisco took away the middle of the field from Tua. They ran 95% zone coverage. Yeah.

That is, if the Chargers want to win this game, they need to put on the film from last week and say, all right, how do we, like, what did San Francisco do to slow out this team other than to having a down game? And they need to get away from that man coverage if they're going to win this game. Yeah, the big thing was that I think that the San Francisco. linebackers, Fred Warner, Al-Shazir, like those guys, they just mucked up the middle, they just mucked up the middle of the field. And that's been where two has been the most effective is throwing over the middle to these guys crossing, hitting, you know, hitting overs, hitting drags, getting these guys accurate balls across the middle to where they have a lot of space and they can get moving.

And that's what San Francisco is able to take away because, like, because their linebackers are so, are very good in coverage and can kind of lock down the middle of the field. and forced to her to push the ball a little bit more outside the numbers, which is where he starts to get less accurate. Yep. Because of the lack of the slight lack of arm strength that he has. Yeah. They ran a lot of cover four in particular,

so that's going to give you those two deep safeties every single play, and then your outside corners are more or less playing man coverage on the outside. Yeah. So it's going to take away your deep middle of the field where we've seen Tyree Kill catch plenty of deep bombs so far this year that's going to yeah i mean it's going to force you to to dump it off a lot more than you probably want to and and and like you said forced to it to throw outside the numbers because you're the san francisco line i mean they're the perfect team to run it too because they are they're athleticism they can they can they can you don't need a ton of

safety help in the middle of the field for those linebackers to be able to cover space um The Chargers definitely don't have that level to do it to that level. But they, yeah, they certainly just can't run as much man coverage as they've been running this season. Yeah, and that's where I think that, like, I would like to see the Chargers play like a cover four base similar to what San Fran did. But I would like to see them play more three safety looks and bring, just play Derwin James. as a linebacker all game. Yeah, they kind of have him hold down the middle. They do, yeah, they do at times.

I think that is what, I think that's what would give them a chance is have Derwin James just kind of roaming the middle of the field and see if he can have that type of impact because, I mean, we know that the Chargers linebackers are not, not even in the same stratosphere as San Francisco's. Like their front seven overall is, just like again they're not even in the same conversation as san francisco like generating pressure

uh the chargers have been a lot less like i think they're at 30% over the course of the season which would be about the bottom third of the NFL and like San Francisco is generating a ton of like a ton of pressure on twoa they got a couple good lick licks on him and i just yeah i think The, like, the blueprint is kind of there. It's just that San Francisco and maybe, like, one or two other teams are the only people with the personnel to, like, actually execute that game plan. Yeah. They could, they do. So, Staley is very comfortable giving up rushing, uh, production.

And that could help that. Like, tell, let Miami say, look, you want to run on us, do it. And because Miami does not want to do it. They don't want to run the ball. So if you can get McDaniel to get into a run game and, you know, giving up four yards on a run is a hell of a lot better than giving up 20 on a Tyree kill catch. Yes, absolutely. If you can bait them into doing that, maybe you can slow this offense down because your

offense should have success as well against the Miami defense. Yeah. At the end of the day, like I said, I think I agree with you. I think Miami ends up pointing the game. I still think it'll be a shootout. I still think Herbert will have a great game, which is going to kind of stink for him because then it's going to be the whole narrative,

especially if they have the ball last or something, the whole narrative is going to be about, again, how Herbert can't go down and win games. Acho will have another field day with it. It's sickening at this point. They'll have the lead, and then Miami's going to win the game. game with a minute 30 left because they try to just man up the Miami receivers and that's how

a game ends. It's going to be a fun. It's going to be a fun game. I this get like the Chargers. If they lose this one, they have to win out. If they win them, if they win, they give themselves a chance. They give themselves another, a better fighting chance to finish out the season and go to the playoffs. Miami is a game somewhere. Yeah. Miami's pretty. firmly in the playoffs, but at this point, fighting with Buffalo to win that East Division. So I think it'll be a good game, but overall, I think my, I just think that the Chargers defense just doesn't instill any confidence to slow down Miami's offense in any way, shape, or four minutes, mainly because of their front seven. I don't trust their linebackers to

muck up to, like, get the middle of the field. And I don't trust their front, their front four to stop the run or get any pressure. They've been missing Joe. They've been missing Joey Bosa. That's been their biggest thing is Joey Bosa. It really shows that Joey Bosa has almost a, not maybe not to the exact level, but similar to a T.J. Watt level impact on that defense. Yeah. Yeah.

I think that's fair. All right. So then we are both in agreement on that and disagree with Brett. So we agreed with what? We agreed with the lions. Lions on the road. Jags, Titans. I was Jags.

you were Titans. Ravens beat the Steelers. We were both on the Steelers. Yep. And Buck's 49ers, we were both on the 49ers. Yep. We were both on the Cardinals, which also Brett was. And then we're more on Miami and Brett thinks the Chargers pull one out against Miami.

Yeah, I'm interested to talk. I'm interested to see where, where and why Brett had some of the thought processes he had. I can like see it, but there's a couple that I'm like, I don't know where. I don't know if I agree with this one, but it'll be fun to watch.

When he told me he wanted to do this, I was like he made it sound like he was going to give us some ridiculous takes. I know. They're going to be easy to shut down. But these are, you know, these were all fair. Yeah,

I thought there's a world where each of them happens and it's not that crazy to, expect. Like, I don't think, like, it's not like he was pulling out any, he wasn't pulling out any, like, Carolina opens up the field and beats Seattle. I did, he told me he had a Raiders one that he, he depended on the Raiders winning last night. Do you want to know what it was? I do, actually, because I think that everybody was ready, I think everybody was gearing up and ready to go to jump on the Raiders for the rest of the season. He, it was, so obviously this only would work if the Raiders won, but he said Josh Jacobs

becomes an MVP candidate. Yeah. I said, no way does that ever happen. Win or loss? I don't care. He went for what, like 24 carries and 90 yards last night? Like he had. He had an okay game, but it wasn't like what he had been doing all year.

Yeah. Yeah, I mean, yeah, 27 carries 99 yards. what he went for last night. If he had had, if he would have had another one of his 150, 200 yard game, they'd probably end up winning that game. Yeah. But they didn't, and they're done. They're cooked.

They're done. Stick a fork in them. That, yeah, that kind of wraps it up. The only other game that maybe has a, like, or there's actually a couple other games this week that are decent in the early slate, New York Jets, and Buffalo, and then Cleveland, in Cincinnati. But we're running out of time, so we will. We'll just focus on recapping those on Wednesday.

Anything else, Chris, before we jump out of here? No, I think we're good. I did have, there was one thing I did want to bring up last, just because it was a take. I had someone who mentioned me on Twitter, Quentin Fensky, who's, he's talked to me on Twitter a couple times. There's a guy on Twitter that said that Josh Palmer is 23 and he's one of the best separators in football right now. And Quinn had like replied to it and said this doesn't seem

right. What do you guys think of this? So real quick, what do you think of Josh Palmer being one of the best separators in the NFL right now? I don't think Josh Palmer's good. Yeah, that's true. I don't think he's a good. I don't think he's that great of a separator. I haven't And like I've watched a couple. I know that you and I are like really are going through and doing a lot of separation stuff right now watching a lot of all 22. I think I've seen one Chargers game so far. But in no way have I seen even in game, even in watching back Chargers games, in no way have I seen like Josh Palmer separate to a level of like a Drake London. Yeah.

Nothing like nothing that stood out anyway. Right. He's just I think he's just a run of the mill wide receiver three in the NFL. Yeah. Yeah, he's just the guy. He's a jag. He's a jag. All right, cool.

Well, that was fun. Brett will be back on Wednesday. Hopefully, I think we should all get us three again on Friday to go over this week's and then maybe jump, do another for week 15. Thank you for, thank you again, Chris, for filling in for Brett. And I'm Stephen O'Rourke, and we are out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform.

And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.