Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Take Talk Episode 35

Episode Date: January 6, 2023

Fantasy Points' Chris Wecht (ChrisWechtFF) joins Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) and Steven ORourke (@callmesteveo7) for the last week of the regular season to talk all of the games and their playoff implications. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome in to another episode, the final episode of the 2020-23 regular season of the Take Talk podcast. I'm your host, Brett Whitefield, with my usual co-Stevenorke, and our most usual guest, Christopher Wecht. We are all of fantasy points. How are you guys doing today?

Doing good. Last stretch here, just one more 16 games late, and we get our lives back to some degree. To some degree. It's the key there, but yeah. Yeah, this is an exciting week. we just did a little show prep the three of us going through all the different playoff scenarios

and it's pretty nuts it is kind of a crappy slate of games however there are like a million different weird playoff scenarios that can take place so we had to kind of like write some of them down so we don't forget them but mostly revolving the seven seats though unfortunately right yes

well it's seeding seeding plus seven seeds really but Steve how are you doing? I'm doing well Brett you know I, Raynell was running a little late this morning, but you guys aren't, don't seem to be shooting too bad of daggers at me. So I'm, so I think I'm all right. But things are good. I'm excited for the last week this season.

I'm excited for playoffs to start. And I'm just, I'm just happy. Also very happy to hear the good news on Demar Hamlin, which was a nice, which is good to see those updates throughout the week. and good to see that they've been so positive and moving in the right direction. Yeah, agreed. Huge, huge dub for Damar and the family there. Steve and Chris, before we get into this playoff talk, I wanted to have a little discussion about etiquette and friendicate.

When you have friends over for a dinner party and they bring something, like say a bottle of wine or a dessert. So I'll discuss what etiquette is, you know? So just for the listeners, I know Chris knows this, but Steve and his wife came over to my house on Wednesday for dinner, hang out with my wife and my kids, and it was great. And we just, Steve and I got talking, like, what is etiquette? So Steve and his wife brought a bottle of wine with them, but it did not get opened. And so I stated as they were leaving that that bottle of wine still remains in their

possession, right? I think that's proper etiquette. But however, if that bottle had been opened, that bottle of wine is now mine. You guys have defined rules here? I feel like there are defined rules here. There probably is, but I have not, I don't, I never thought about it that way before at all whatsoever. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know what the, what the rule is there. So I sent the bottle of wine home with Steve because it was not opened, as I said. They did bring a dessert, however, that was mostly eight. However, there was like 25% left over. And then I claimed that as my possession.

Which is a good thing because that thing was really good. And that I would have disappeared before we even got home. Bro, I did exactly what my wife said I would do. As soon as you guys got your car, I ate another piece of that, bro. It was the best freaking dessert I've had in a long time. It was like this peanut butter, chocolate bar. It was delicious.

So maybe it wasn't even etiquette of why I wanted to keep this thing. It was just more of like I have to have that in my mouth more than I already have. So yeah, so anyways, I claimed it as my own and your wife graciously left it for me. And it is gone, by the way. I would hope so.

I'd be disappointed if it wasn't. with how you were talking it up and everything. If you were like, if you were like, there's still a piece left out of them, like that, then it was all for nothing. Right. Non-hyperbole, it was the best dessert I think I've had in like the last five years. Wow. That's that's high praise.

And she nailed it because I'm a peanut butter chocolate guy for dessert. I'm not into pie. We've talked about this on the pot. I'm not into pies. Not a cake guy. Don't really like cookies. You know, a cheesecake is all right. That's probably like my number two.

That was probably my number one before this magical dessert ended up on my doorstep. And then this has now taken over. In fact, I want my wife to make me some this week, even though she probably shouldn't because I just had, I probably ate half that thing, didn't I, Steve? You, I mean, you had, like, two or three pieces while we were there. I don't think I had three while you were there, and then I had three when you left. I don't think that was too aggressive, at least in front of us. I mean, what you did after, right?

that's your own domain you get to do whatever you want and that and that's super easy recipe though i i i'll sit i'll have i can send it over to you too it took like it took my wife like maybe 20 minutes to make super easy that's that's that's way too many calories to be able to consume 20 20 minutes of prep you know i know i know you'd think it would have been this painstakingly hard thing right was it She, I think she was in and out of the kitchen like three times in the middle of it. It was not hard. Awesome.

Well, so last bit on etiquette, too. And this is, this has been bugging me since it happened, Steve. I put out my hand to do a little tap up before Steve left. I. And he, he ignored me. And he stated he was waiting for me to come out under the porch. No, so here, listen, listen, listen, listen. I thought about this last night.

because I, too, because I knew it was going to come up. Listen, my thought process was, we had said our group goodbyes. And then I like, you walk out the house, my wife, your wife, both behind us. We're the ones that were the, that were like the catalyst between the two. I give you one last, I turn around, give you one last handshake goodbye, then we go our separate ways. That was my thought process is that like, it's the one last. goodbye from the two people that are like okay that were the the catalyst behind the hanging out I swear it was not meant to be I was just I'm a one goodbye guy I didn't need to

goodbye oh I'm a two I'm a two good bye guy so I always do one in the house and then one right in the doorway yeah that that was apparent because you just dis my no but you know I had hand extended like, come on, brother. He called me out before I turned back around. Because you walked past my hand. I was getting around you. You had to get in the second goodbye location.

My back is facing the outside. You're facing, you're facing me. And then boom, goodbye. Turn our separate ways, closed door, end of evening. Perfect ending. So what you're saying is, is you had to get lined up correctly before the snow. Yes, exactly. You do not want an offside penalty.

Exactly. I don't, you know, can't have a bunch of movement going on. You've got to get everybody set in their positions. And then we go. All right. I think the part that made it the most awkward is when you walked past me,

then I was left with, like, your wife staring at me like, oh. That part's weird. That's fun. That's weird. A little awkward.

All right, bring it in, Alyssa, what's going? I just met you, but here we go. Yeah. All right.

Chris, do you have a ruling on this? Is there an official way to say goodbye? Are you a two goodbye guy or a single goodbye guy? I'd probably fall in the single goodbye category. I know people that are, you say goodbye like 50 times before you're able to get out the door finally, but I've never heard an official stance of I'm a certain number of goodbye person. I grew up with a group of friends where we're all very codependent is the best. best way to put it, I think. And so saying goodbye is an ordeal. Yes, I know people like that for sure.

And that was how I was raised with family too. Saying goodbye. That is how my family is. Is not just like, all right, see you later. And then you leave. It's a, it's a 48 step process where you say goodbye and then, oh, you sit down for a little bit longer and then you say goodbye again. It gets worse with kids too. So like when we're at my parents' house, if I want to leave their house at like 9 p.m. I got to tell my kids at 8.30, we're leaving right now. So they, because, you know, all the, you know, grandparents, aunts and uncles, they all want to say their goodbyes, like 75 times to my kids. So it's like they have to make the rounds like twice, two, three times before we actually leave. So like, all right, we're leaving right now. And then that buys me like 30

minutes of goodbyes. But, Chris, you know I'm a single guy. Because like, even on the phone, we'll just be mid-conversation. I'll be like, oh, shoot, I got to do this. Bye. And I just like, hang up. Yep. Just always took on. Very abruptly. But, all right, we can get back to football talk now. I just had to get the etiquette stuff off my chest. It's been stewing in me since you're here, Steve.

Brett, for you, I'll adjust for next time. No, no, no, no. I'll make the adjustment. Oh, no, no. All right, well, playoff madness. We're kicking the week off tomorrow Saturday, 4.30 p.m. We got Kansas City Raiders. game doesn't mean necessarily a ton, so we're not going to break this game down. But if

Kansas City wins, simply put, they get the one seed. If they lose, it does open the door up for Buffalo to swoop in there. But we'll get to that later. Yeah, so a Kansas city win here in Las Vegas gives them number one seed. I kind of expect that to just happen pretty easily. So like I said, we're not going to break this game down. The second game that day, though, the 815 game, Tennessee at Jacksonville has a lot of implications because it is for division title. There's a million tie scenarios that we're not going to get into because they're obviously unlikely. But simply put, the winner of this game wins that division. And that is the Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars. How are you guys feeling about this game? I mean, I think we're

all in agreement here probably. I can just assume. I was excited for this game. I am excited. for this game, mainly because it feels like this is a right of passage type of thing for Trevor Lawrence. Because Tennessee is, I feel like they're coming in so injured. Like in the last three weeks, I feel like they've put away, they put away Tanna Hill for the year, right? He's not playing. Henry, I think he'll be back, but.

Henry's full health, Danica Autry is full participant practice. just playing right yes somebody else that I'm forgetting yeah but they basically there is healthy as they've been in weeks I'll say yeah minus Tana Hill and that's and I think that's the key for me is doesn't this just feel like a game that Tennessee's defense is just going to muck up though for Jacksonville and we're going to be forced to watch the Titans and the playoffs again get balanced by whatever the try yes it would be the charges most likely I do not accept that pessimism on this podcast. God, I hope not, man.

I think Jacksonville pulls this game out, but it's more, I really hope they pull this game out. I know. I want to see Lawrence in the playoffs. Just new blood, like, we've seen the Tennessee show enough. And until they make, like, a true fundamental change in what they're doing, they're going to be boring to watch. Yeah.

So. We don't need to see Josh Dobbs in the playoffs. Oh, my God. That would be horrendous. Don't. And that's where I keep leaning with this game is that end of the day. Jacksonville is coming in playing really well. Tennessee is limping in.

I mean, they did take a break last week because the game didn't really matter. But I just think that I think Tennessee is coming or sorry, Jacksonville is coming in like flying higher. Trevor Lawrence is hitting on all cylinders. And they have their full complement of weapons. And Tennessee without Ryan Tannahill. we've seen that show a couple times this year and it's not i don't think it's gone well once yeah that is that is true yeah so the i mean past rush for tennessee could be i mean that's what it comes down to i feel like uh can can they just force Trevor lawrence into sacks and and

turnovers is Jeffrey Simmons back um i can check i know Autry is back Altry's huge for them Yeah Altry gives them like a You know a legit pass rush Right weapon Simmons has been strange this year Because pre first injury he was

insane Like having You know in like a Chris Jones level season And then once he came back from his injury He just was not really the same And then he got hurt again So it'd be if he is back It'd be interesting to see what Simmons we get

and how healthy he actually is. Right. It looks like he's not carrying an injury designation into. Yeah, that's what I thought. So he's good to go. Okay. Yeah, so he's, regardless of that, he's probably still hurt, right? Because everyone at this time years hurt, so the question is how much.

Yeah, he's been dealing with it since, like, week 10. It looks like he's, actually, I'm seeing he's limited all week and questionable. But he probably goes out there because they need to. And that's where, like, it says here that he doesn't carry an injury designated. They may have off at the end of it or whatever. Yeah, yeah. Gotcha. Well, yeah, so I'm, this is being played in Jacksonville.

I'm taking the surging team here easily, especially because Tennessee's trotting out, Josh Dobbs at QB. Dobbs made a couple nice plays last week, but they were, you know, mostly negated by several terrible place. So I'm pretty comfortable with Jacksonville here. I think the surging team with the better quarterback at home field is got to be the easy favorite in this game. And it's funny how things can flip in just a year.

Like think of where Jacksonville was last year. Last year Jacksonville was playing the spoiler to Indianapolis with no hope of playing in the playoffs to now they have a win and end game in just one year. like true that it just goes to show the parody the parody in the NFL as well as what can happen when you give a good young quarterback a competent head coach when oh well that that's a big key is the urban Meyer experience ending abruptly and swiftly right probably the best thing that happened to lawrence was them moving on from urban quickly but like it's so it's cool to see because Trevor Lawrence's rookie year like if we're just being blunt it was terrible like there there was nothing really to be left with feeling good about that even the first few games of this year

you were just like wow this like he's in risk of being a bus I think we even said on this podcast at one point see if that that QB class was supposed to be amazing and none of them looked good and now a couple of them have started to come around a little bit too I feel like it happened right after that too that Trevor Lawrence started

like really popping off and showing it consistently week in and week out. Yeah, agreed. And it is crazy how fast that turned around because now it looks like, you know, he's knocking on the door of beating the conversation for, you know, a top, top 10 guy, maybe even a top five guy here at a certain point. Chris, any final thoughts in this game before we move on? No, I think we got it.

I did want to look up one thing. So Dobbs had a 20% accurate throw rate. year. That has to be one of the lowest numbers in a single game all year. Last week he had that? Yeah, because he's only played one game. That has to be one of the lowest ones. Now that when we say accurate throw weight, we're meaning like perfectly placed balls. So get the receiver in stride, hit him on a deep go route perfectly in his hand, stuff like that. What was his A-dot? It was, couldn't have been that high. I don't remember.

remember any 7.5 so middle of the how many dropbacks that is 42 oh my god that is terrible yeah yeah I don't I don't know how you win a a game of this magnitude with Dobbs at QB to be honest yeah and that's yeah that's my resounding thought process with this game wasn't Dobbs on the the Lions practice squad most of the year he was on the he was on the

Practice squad three weeks ago. Until Tennessee signed him. Yeah. Crazy. And Jacksonville has a 2.4 explosive run rate over the past six weeks, so they're actually playing very well at stopping the run, and particularly big runs, which is basically the only way that Tennessee wins this game. Chris, I actually wanted to ask you this about Etienne.

I have my own thoughts, but so he's leading the NFL by a mile in rushing yards over expectations. expectation, basically. Now, I get that, like, his archetype as a runner is explosive plays. That's why you draft the guy with his speed, right? But, like, is, is, do you see a regression coming? Or do you think he has the talent to transcend that? And because he's, basically, the guy he's right next to is Nick Chubb. And Nick Chubb is always one or two in the NFL in yards, rushing yards over expectation.

So do you think Etienne is a guy like Chubb who's always going to be up? there or is this just they've hit lightning in a bottle like a few too many times this year and it's a little bit fluky? I mean Etienne's like first of all they keep

pulling him off the like like he's missed out on a couple touchdowns by like a couple yards the past few weeks he'd be putting up like in the fantasy world we'd like all be talking about him if he scores some of the touchdowns that he would have should have scored. Right.

And I think he's I think he's looked pretty good as a runner over the past few weeks. I don't see a reason to think there would be any major regression. I do wish they would use him in the passing game more. I mean, he did that in college all the time at Clemson. And that's what was senior year, honestly.

Yeah, and that was designed, right? He wanted to show that he could do it. And it's basically gone away again in the NFL. And I'm not really sure why. I mean, especially they've got, they've seen to have really gotten a solid receiving core with Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Ebenegrim. Like, there should be no reason that he can't get open underneath and, you know, turn some dead plays into six to seven yard plays and then break some stuff off too that he's shown he's got the burst for. Yeah, even as just like Lawrence continues to develop, like you would think having a guy of Etienne's caliber as a receiver, you'd just, you'd check. the ball down, you know? I mean, you don't know, you don't want Lawrence to develop bad tendencies

necessarily, but when you see a guy like Austin Echler get freaking 12 targets a game, like, can we get Etienne 5 or 6, you know? Yeah, exactly. We don't want, we don't want the Echler checkdowns, but, you know, five or six would be totally fine. Yeah. Um, all right, let's go to New England at Buffalo. Um, obviously this game is going to be heavy for a lot of reasons with the Damar Hamlin situation going on. I'm sure Buffalo is going to be emotional in this one. If I had to guess, I would say that they're going to be probably pretty fired up. But this does have playoff implications because if New England wins, they're in.

Point blank. If Buffalo wins and there's a KC loss, as we mentioned, Buffalo will get the number one seed based on win percentage, even though they're missing the one game. So this game is actually very important for how the AFC bracket's going to shape up. It's really hard for me to kind of predict what's going to happen because of the weight that's going to be on the Buffalo Bill's players. So I am like almost opinionless, but I don't know. We can talk through a little bit. That's where I fall to is that like I, how do I put this?

I'm superstitious and I'm superstitious. enough or maybe it's not superstition but like I do believe there is credence to like when something that big happens to a team that you know generally they band together oh and 100% so I like I don't think in any world I could actually pick New England to win this game from an X's and O's standpoint like I'm excited to see I'm excited to see the matchup of New England's defense and Buffalo's offense because it's been new england's defense has been kind of rising playing better toward the end of the season buffalo's offense is still figuring things out with josh allen but if we're just talking from like humanity football that like i don't know i don't see buffalo losing this game

in any way i don't know it's one of those things right now i don't know if i'd pick buffalo to lose a game the rest of the season but yeah there's that especially with like them getting positive on on hamlin like that could clear the mind a little bit for them to really you know get focused in and dial in here and it be not uh as sad of the heaviness but almost like uh hey we're gonna go we're gonna go out there and fight for demar that that happens a lot you know teams yeah teams use that as a motivator a lot so um the flip side of that is like these are the types of game bell bellich thrives in right like back against the wall he needs he needs one game plan and you know you you love to see the bills win because of

that but like this is this is where bellichick has made his money over the years like these these types of games these must win games so yeah um that said i don't i mean talent wise i don't think these two teams are very close at all i don't think new england can score enough points even if their defense played at a high level buffalo is going to score I just don't really see it, especially with it being a Buffalo too, that home crowd's going to be just amped. Yeah, and that's where the mismatches is, is the Buffalo, the Buffalo defense and the New England offense. Yes. And I think, yeah, like, I think that'll shape the game.

Yeah, so when they played each other in week 13, Josh Allen had pretty much no issues doing whatever he wanted, finish with a hundred and six pass. rating two TDs, 223 yards. Yeah, the Patriots defense pretty much gave him no issues. Only 9% of his passes were off target, so he was finding guys open most likely. And yeah, so. Yeah. Knowing his defense has been better, but they're so far from any of the elite Patriots defense that we've seen in the past.

And I do think that, you know, like you guys said, that Buffalo will have a little extra motivation. Even if it's in a negative way, I don't think it's enough for New England to really pull this one out. Yeah. I think we're pretty much all in agreement. Agrients there. So another minor note in the same division, you've got the Jets playing Miami. And that game is important because if New England does, lose and Miami wins they are in the Jets have obviously been eliminated already but

divisional teams love playing spoiler in Miami is a sinking ship right now so they're a very beatable team they're starting their third string quarterback and they were already kind of on the downturn with their other quarterbacks so have you guys seen the reports I forget who it was that if Miami loses this game McDaniels could get fired no way I Yeah, I'll have to dig it out. People are obviously, like, there's no way that can be true. But there is an actual reporter that is saying that that's what he's heard from the organization.

Yeah. I've heard some similar rumblings, but can't really disclose on pod. That would be so surprising to me because in my head, that means that Miami regime sides with two. and thinks that Tua is the long-term, like, answer over, over, like, McDaniel being the guy to bring, you know, bring a quarterback in or whatever. I don't know. It's interesting. I guess I...

So, what is interesting about that, Steve, is a couple weeks, or maybe even last Friday. I kind of jokingly speculated that Brady was going to be the Dolphins next quarterback. They tried to do that last year. You did hard. If they fired McDaniel, that opens that scenario back up where, because Prady wants to play for Sean Payton, get a Sean Peyton, Brady duo in Miami. That would be crazy. That's pure speculation, by the way.

It was the reporter, by the way, was Armando Salgaro. Oh, he's a beat writer for the Dolphins, right? No, he works for Outkick and does stuff for Fox, too. Okay. is outkick is that uh is that clay's thing that's what i was trying to remember i think so right i think so yeah okay well i mean outkick is a little bit uh i guess shock jockey you know like they're they're going for extreme headlines right um yeah that that is interesting though um is there anything else implicating in this game i don't think there is right it's just

simply if Miami wins, they're in with a New England loss, of course. Yep. And then if Jets win in New England had lost, then the Steelers are in. Oh, yeah, that's the other one. By the grace of God, Mike Tomlin has the Steelers sniffing around still.

This is never, Steve, we did our in-depth head coach talk. And we mentioned Tomlin in that. discussion. But we both kind of said, well, it's been a while. Like, yeah, he's great. He's got this really high bottom line, but it's been a while since he's done something special with the team. What he's done this year is pretty special because that team sucks. Yeah. You can just give Tomlin, like, some more like new age offensive schemes and game events over the, like he probably, because what does he have one Super Bowl? I mean, he's, he'd have at least two, maybe three.

he's going to Doug Peterson himself with Canada man I'm telling him yeah and that's where it gets to is that after this season if they don't let Matt Canada go it's going to be this really weird thing where I think a lot of people were feeling this going into this year too where what Mike Tomlin has done with these with like last year's team this year's team and like just keeping a dinosaur of Ben Rathosberger in playoff contention and then carry that over to a rookie that pretty much everyone had written it off and doubt their back intention, they're back in contention. But if you keep Matt Canada around for one more, for another season, like, you're the

director of your own demise. And he's going to. Because Matt Canada's offense is not conducive to, A, developing a young quarterback, be having a good offense or in C winning games like he's it's it's just wild what tomlin's been able to pull out of like a young quarterback playing in a pretty simple archaic system with you utilizing yeah utilizing receivers that are you know they've they're good but i think that it's just all bogged down by matt canada honestly like that's what it feels like So what's crazy, though, is like, you have a young quarterback there.

They're going to justify his development as the reason to keep Matt Canada. It's like you don't want your young quarterback going through multiple offensive coordinators early in his career. And this is how the Doug Peterson effect happens, right? Like, there's always a justification to keep your guy there. Yeah. And so I could, like, if they think Pickett, there's a chance Pickett is the guy long term, which they probably do. they're going to keep Matt Canada at least for another year I would say which like you said you're just authoring your own demise at that point

but more importantly oh sorry Chris go ahead I was going to say over since Tomlin's been there do you think there's obviously they had Rothensberger but if they hadn't had rothlessburger and at some point they were looking for a new QB is there like Pittsburgh have been like the best landing spot for a rookie QB over the past decade or so since Tomlin's been there, I mean, like, what if my homes had landed in Pittsburgh instead of Kansas City? Oh, man. Like, is it even a drop off?

Oh, they're, they're insane. Yeah, they're crazy. But again, it depends. Like, do we, like, yeah, that's a whole, that's a whole rival. Because it's like, okay, does he do what he does without Andy Reed, or like, to the level that he does about Andy Reed's offense? And his team is just, like, QB proof. It just doesn't matter.

like it just doesn't matter he pulls wins out of this team somehow right yeah well the the other thing too is like big ben he gets a bad rap for his last couple years in the NFL he was playing at a very high level as recent as like 2019 yeah it's not like he fell off a cliff yeah fell off fast for him and like i think it was it did he hurt his hand or shoulder no he had Tommy john surgery right on his elbow and when he came back from that then you realize he couldn't throw the ball down field anymore and then that was kind of it basically but until that point he was he was a very very good quarterback yes very underrated quarterback too because he played an era with yes a million greats you know rogers brady manning other manning uh rivers plus all the new

the new blood that's in the NFL so breeze was in that mix too obviously so but more importantly than all that qb discussion is like guys i think this actually a really real possibility that Pittsburgh makes a playoffs. Yes. Because like I don't feel like I don't think New England's winning their game and Miami's been so bad lately. That's not a guaranteed win. Like I almost think that's the most likely scenario at this point is that Pittsburgh

slides in as the seven seed. I'll say the hardest, the hardest thing of those to pay off would be Pittsburgh beating Cleveland. Yeah, that exactly. Cleveland hasn't been that good lately. No, no. I'm not saying it's not likely. I'm just saying if you ask me these three things that have to happen, which one

is the like, ah, I see, the lynchpin of it. Yeah, I agree. I agree. Yeah.

That's crazy to think about. Yeah. Going off the, going off, like, numbers and things, everything go, everything leans Pittsburgh.

I mean, Cleveland hadn't been playing well. Argued their offense had actually gotten tremendously worse since Deshaun Watson has come back. Their defense actually

has kicked it up. They've looked, their defenses looked a lot better. It'll just be interesting because the offense did come alive for Cleveland a little bit in the second half against Washington after Deshaun Watson had his own screw up throwing it to an offensive lineman and the hilarity behind that.

But their offense did come alive a little bit in the second half. So it'll be interesting to see if that carries over. If that was Deshawn Watson finally officially knocking the rust off or if that was a fluke because they got to play against Carson Wentz. But it's at least if that second half in Washington hadn't happened, I wouldn't be having as hard of an internal debate about Pittsburgh winning this game. I would have just, I'd said Pittsburgh's going to win. But now it feels like potentially Cleveland's offense has found a groove maybe.

And that, you know, that presents a bigger problem for Pittsburgh. because their offense hasn't put up a ton of points. They've been in a lot of close games, and their offense has not been putting up a lot of points. Kenny Pickett has been leading some structured drives at the end of games to go and take a game at the end of it. I think he's done that probably. It feels like two or three times here in the last few weeks.

And now it'll be interesting to see if Cleveland puts up more than 20 points, 21 points can Pittsburgh keep pace and outscore them. And Pickett's coming off probably his best game too, right? Yeah. At least, I don't know statistically if it was even close to his best game, but throw for throw, like I watched every one of his throws, they were, I think throw for throw was his best game by far. Yeah.

A degree of difficulty, some of the passes he completed were just excellent throws, dimes. Actually, he made a throw down the left sideline that I didn't even know he was capable of making, and I've been a big detractor of him. I think him throwing outside the numbers is bad news, and especially downfield, and he dropped a bomb down the left sideline, like pretty deep. So I was...

Do you know Deonté Johnson doesn't have a touchdown this year? Is that true? That is true. Yes, it is. 844 yards, nine end zone targets, zero touchdowns. I think... Wow. Right now, if he ends this season without a touchdown,

I'm pretty sure he has the most targets and receptions ever for a receiver to not have a receiving touchdown. Wow. That's incredible. Fun fact. But it is games in Pittsburgh. I expect a defensive battle, honestly. And with it being in Pittsburgh, those fans are going to be hungry,

especially since it's against Cleveland. Oh, yeah, this is a bad blood game. There's one thing that Pittsburgh loves. It's messing with Cleveland. And especially after, like, the last time. time these two played for implications like this Cleveland one got to the playoffs and then beat the crap out of Pittsburgh in the playoffs so there is probably that thought process as well yep

same division we were going to talk Baltimore Cincinnati but Chris informed before we went live that that game actually doesn't mean anything now yeah it means not as much it's more dependent on the other AFC games than it is itself yeah so there's a chance for seating purposes, either team could slide a direction, but Baltimore no longer has a chance to win the division. Correct. Because of the win percentage breakdowns.

So I guess, you know. And then the big implication here is if they, if Baltimore does win and has to play Cincinnati in the wild card round, they go to a coin flip for home field advantage. Yep. Which is wild. That's fun. It feels like,

It feels like the movie Friday night. Yeah, I was going to say. Where they do the coin flip for the three-way tie for who doesn't make the playoffs or who makes the playoffs. What it feels like is just getting them in like a dingy bar, two coaches standing face across from each other. Wait a minute. Take a closer look at that coin.

Right. Yeah, yeah. It's smudged. It's a televised thing. it's hard to believe that a multi-billion dollar company like the NFL is going to hinge a potential playoff game on R&G, like randomness generator. Do you think Buffalo, or not Buffalo, Cincinnati and Baltimore okayed this? Like, like, all right, we're fine with this? I can't see Harbaugh being okay with that.

He's been the most vocal NFL screwing us over guy in the league, especially. during the COVID year, remember that where they had to switch a game? Like he, he was adamant that the NFL was screwing them. So I can't see him being okay with this, to be honest. Joe Nixon was not happy on Twitter about the breakdown of all. They can't get the one seed and the coin flip thing. I think technically Cincinnati is the team out of all of this that is the most negatively impacted by all the outcomes of everything. but I'd still, for as much as we complain about the NFL

and as much as we complain about Goodell and everybody has their issues with him, I think they handled this. Oh, this is about as good as it could be. It's possible without like throwing some huge wrenches into it. And, you know, there's always going to be people upset. No, yeah, there was no, there was no scenario where somebody isn't getting lesser of a good,

shake than somebody else. I think this is about as good as it could be. But there's always going to be people that are going to bitch about it, especially players. They're always going to find something to complain about. Yeah. So that said, I think Cincinnati probably wins this game anyways, so it all becomes moot in the end.

Yeah, because Lamar isn't back this week. No, I'm a little worried about him for the playoffs. It sounds like he's still dealing with some, like, pain issues. I think fantasy points injury expert Edwin Porras said he was saying like sometimes we

we think these guys should just heal up in like a week or two from every injury. But like if you or I got had a back injury or knee injury, whatever and it took us a few months to get 100% like you wouldn't think anything of it. Right. And it's just, you know,

Lamar's just healing probably like most people would. And we, you know, we're just not used to, we're used to football players, you know, taking no time off for injuries if they can. Right. But pain is pain. And if he's feeling it, it's not always just something that just heals in a few weeks. Yeah, I mean, in a lesser way I can relate. Like, I'm literally always hurt.

Yeah, Prudis has a new injury every other week. Yeah, from BJJ. but my performance on the mats doesn't dictate the course of my life at all. It's a hobby. You know, it's what I do in my spare time. So it's like for these guys to, you know, be expected to turn around from a knee injury and play a couple weeks later, like, that's crazy. Like, you know.

So I get it. That's, I think expectations are always too high with player return. And even the performance after they return, you know, it's like it's just because a guy comes back doesn't even mean it's going to be the same guy. Right. Right. Yeah. So are we all taking Cincinnati then? Yeah.

Right. Oh, right. So let's move to the 4 p.m. slate on Sunday. We're not going to spend time talking Giants Philly. The one note in that game is that if Philly wins, they get the number one seed. It's as simple as that. I will say that, Chris, and you pointed this out to me over the weekend, And if like three weeks ago, if you, you would have told me what's going to happen week 18, we would have assumed Philly would have been resting their starters because they already

had the one seat locked up, not the other way around. There's a good chance to Giants, don't necessarily bench anyone, but it's sounding like they're not playing several key starters. It's the first that I've heard. So they're not playing them at all, not even like a half? I mean, we'll say, you know, who knows how much that is and whatnot. but it does definitely sound like they're not going to be full go. Okay.

Everybody, which is like crazy for a team that is not exactly the most talented team anyway. Like this team is, the Giants are where they don't. Do they have key starters? That's like, man, if these are the key starters we're resting, who are the guys that are going to be playing? Right.

Man, if the Eagles, I would have to like consider stop being an Eagles fan if they lose this game to the Giants somehow. this would be just who's playing quarterback Hertz has been limited all week I'm kind of of the mindset though that you just maybe just rest them anyway

like if you can't beat the the Giants with Minchu and with resting several key starters like you don't probably don't deserve the one seat anyway all right I didn't want to talk about this game at all but now I feel like I'm inclined to at least ask one question to you guys has Minchu is kind of

have thought of as like this the probably the best backup in the NFL or one of the best backets of the NFL. Has he hurt his stake to that claim? I think he's he is he's a backup key being the NFL. I think that's what exactly what he just yeah really has not played well against him not very good teams. He played I'd say fine in the Dallas game. He definitely missed some easy throws but you know they did put up 30 something points. I forget the exact Yeah, like 34. Against the Dallas defense that most people consider to be pretty strong, even though injuries have kind of riddled them recently and definitely knock them down a peg.

He did. He had a terrible game against the Saints. One of the worst QB games I've probably ever seen. The Eagles coaching staff didn't do them a ton of favors having it. I think Miles Sanders had one or two carries by the halftime. They had very few offensive plays, but you just can't. sometimes you just got to, and then as soon as they came out of halftime, they start running the ball well, and they drive the ball downfield and they get some points.

I just think he is exactly what he is. He's a backup QB that, you know, you're going to have games where he just totally looks terrible. And Dennis Allen does put out good defenses more often, like more often than not, even though the Saints are bad. So I'm not my opinion of Mitchell hasn't really changed. It was bad, but I think he's exactly what he is. So your opinion of Minchu was not that great to begin with? It was that he's a above, you know, a capable backup QB in the NFL. I don't, I wouldn't change that.

That's, yeah. My short, short thing being like, yeah, I agree. And Minchu is what he is. He can get you and keep you competitive in games as long as you have the right infrastructure around him. And like you said. he's going to get got every once in a while because that's what his caliber is as a quarterback. And he got got by New Orleans. I also think Marshawn Latimore being active totally destroyed the Eagles' offensive game plan

because he has been inactive for weeks and weeks and weeks despite being limited in practice every single week. And then he was active and it's like they, it's like they didn't know what to do anymore. Like, do we throw, you know, like attack somewhere. else and they just like did not plan for that whatsoever yeah fair enough all right let's keep moving so we're not going to talk chargers denver we just want to note that that game does have minor seating implications chargers win or lose they're probably not going to lose so it's a little moot we're not going to get into every seating implication there possibly is because there's a million different combos

of things that can happen to kind of move those teams around minorly you know a spot basically so the next game, though, we'll get into is the Rams and the Seahawks. This is an interesting one because there's like a three-way trifecta in the NFC competing for that seven seed. You have the Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, and the Detroit Lions. There are three real, I guess, defining scenarios here outside of all of the different tie scenarios. So just simply put it, I'll say this. If Seattle wins and Detroit loses, Green Bay is in. if Seattle wins and Detroit wins

Seattle is in if Seattle loses in Detroit wins Green Bay is in so there's basically two scenarios oh and sorry if no I said that backwards sorry if Seattle loses in Detroit wins Detroit is in I was just say I was like wait a minute

I'm missing this scenario for each of the teams to get in yeah there's a scenario for each of the teams to get in um that said that like The Rams have been playing better lately with Baker. They've won two of three games with him starting. They've gotten a little healthy.

Not their star players. Star players are still hurt for the most part, but some of their ancillary pieces that kind of make up that roster have gotten a little healthier. I don't really know. Seattle hasn't been great lately either. They did take care of business last week, but they have not been great.

So it's like, I don't really know what's going to happen in this game. I think the NFL's hoping Seattle loses so that Detroit Green Bay means the world. world. Right. Yes. I think it's whatever your opinion of Jets Seahawks was last week is basically

should be your opinion for Rams Seahawks this week. Maybe a slight downgrade, but not much. I don't think there's a massive difference between the Jets and the Rams right now. Well, I know that the Rams aren't going to trot out Zach Wilson and a Mike White jersey. So that's like that helps. Yes. Yeah. I think that Seattle's.

defense is what decides this game, in my opinion. The Rams defense is still, they still have, like, they don't have Donald, but they still have, like, most of their pieces on, like, on their defense. And their defense, well against Seattle, played pretty well against Seattle the first time. And I wouldn't be surprised if they are feeling confident going into the second game. But it really comes down to Can Baker take care of the ball against the Seattle defense that you can move the ball against. I mean,

rewatching that Jets Seattle game, the Jets had every opportunity to take advantage of Seattle. It was just that Mike White, yeah, like Brett said, put on his absolute best, Zach Wilson impression. And he won.

I mean, he won the award for who can do it the best because the Jets lost. Yes. It was like it was one of those games where, you know, it's one of those games where Seattle was, I don't think Seattle was ever scared that New York was going to put the ball in the end zone. And at least with Los Angeles, their run game seems to be improving.

Like Camakers has put up some decent performances the last few weeks. And Baker Mayfield, he's Baker Mayfield. He's fun. He'll sling it around. He'll make it look chaotic. And Seattle's a team that I feel like could get lost in the chaos. and lose to Baker, because Baker is definitively better than John Wolford. Oh, yeah.

Seahawks are gone. I was just to say, the Rams have actually moved the ball well against bad defenses, too. Now, they played the Chargers defense who was really coming around last week, and they got pretty much shut down. Well, Aker's actually had a good game, but Baker got shut down. But against the Raiders, the Rams had, you know, they didn't put up like a massive day, but they moved the ball relatively well. And then against the Broncos, they just,

freaking annihilated that defense. So. And their defense took advantage of a bad Broncos offense. True, true. But yeah, so like the Seahawks defense is not anywhere near what the Chargers defense is. So I would expect L.A. to be able to, you know, move the ball pretty well. My one concern in this game is actually, like, how well can the Seahawks run the ball against L.A.? That's actually, that's why I was talking about.

by Austin Echler last week, which never happens to anyone. The Kenneth Walker, DJ Dallas, and Travis Homer have all not practiced this week so far. Really? Yeah. Whoa. I don't even know who comes after them. Practice squad? Yeah, it's, yeah, I actually don't know.

Chris Carson out of retirement? So, yeah, and the Rams Rundi has been, yeah. you know, middle of the pack basically. Yeah. Recently. And Seattle, I mean, Seattle, like, needs that run game to get their offense going, I feel like. When we really saw that offense humming early in the season, it was Rashad Penny before he got hurt doing, you know, breaking off long runs. And then basically as soon as he got hurt, Kenneth Walker just plopped right in there and did the exact same thing.

And that, and that's the part of their offense that we've really seemed to disappear over the few weeks. and it seems to be affecting the passing game and just kind of everything that they do well. Yeah. So the only active roster running back they have after those guys is former Lions great Godwin Iqabuque. That's right. Who, I'll just say this, he's not a very good running back.

Great kick returner, not a very good running back. Then on the practice squad, they have two former fantasy football studs in Wayne Galman and Darwin Thompson. So they're definitely like, if those three can't go, they're definitely going down a notch with what they're capable of. Yeah. Kenneth Walker played last week. I'm guessing he suits up. Who knows what that means, though. Right. And then, yeah, I mean, he's the one, the most important one. Homer is probably the second most important one because of how they use him in the passing game. Yeah, and a lot of that pass pro assignments fall on his shoulders as well. Exactly. Yeah.

Yeah, L.A. has, since week nine, they've given up about 4.1, 4.2 yards of carry, only 2.8% explosive play percentage on the ground against them. So they've been in the upper third of the NFL in the second half of the season as far as run defense. Yeah, this is a, yeah, looks like for the most part, Vegas agrees with us that this game is not a layup for Seattle. either it's only like minus one and a half points-ish most places um so yeah this is not a game i mean i think there's a realistic shot that that sunday-night game is big for both teams if i'm if i'm picking with my brain i'm picking seattle i think gino smith pulls it out i and that the rams don't have enough juice on offense i think that seattle can create a turnover or two especially the way Tariq Wollin plays, I think he plays perfectly to

interception, to get an interception off of Baker Mayfield. He's kind of like the bait. I think he likes to bait guys similar to like a Marcus Peters early in his career. So I could see that paying off. But my gut, my gut and my brain say Seattle pulls it out. My, my heart wants Los Angeles, but my gut says that Seattle, think pulls this out just because they have a couple more offensive weapons that are able that are going to be able to shine through yeah um logistically is tyler locket playing in this game he played last week i would imagine he suits up again i've not seen any reason for

him not too yeah he was he was out there he was not super effective he was i don't think he was really they i mean they used him him and metcalf both got nuked they used he uh yeah he uh yeah Lockett is not practiced this week yet, and Metcalf didn't, looks like it was rest-related for the most part, though. I was also not practiced. Metcalf had three yards on five targets. Yeah, it was a bad, bad game.

Part of it, I think... Just give Sauce the wall, true. But, yeah, Sauce, I'd said it Wednesday, but Sauce shut him down and, like, took him out of the game plan. It was just, again, it was too bad that the Jets couldn't do anything on offense because their defense was giving them ample opportunities. Yeah, well, Mike White was Mike White, so. Yeah, he had, Mike White had three turnovers.

Like, you can't win football games like that. I don't see the Rams gifting Seahawks three turnovers in this game. No. So maybe one, maybe, maybe Wollen gets a Baker pick, but I think as long as the Rams don't turn the ball over, this should be close and come down to the wire. Yeah. I'm going to be a total homer and just take the Rams for the hell of

of it. Yeah, I can't do it to myself. Yeah, I can't believe like that in any way. But I agree that it'll be a good game. The Rams have been, hats off to them for being as competitive as they have been down the stretch here because I think, well, I know that we wrote them off. And I know that a lot of other people kind of just resigned it to the fact that, all right, they're not winning another game.

No, I like the Rams here. I think, I think Baker Mayfield and just like the devil. estimation of the offense has like forced mcvay to like go back to what he used to be when he first started coaching and like try to be innovative and try to seem like like earlier in the year the last year he just got so into like a rut of doing the same thing over and over and over again because he just believe and now he's it's almost like it's giving him new life and you know the vibes in l.A. are much better than they are in seattle right now so i think that i think the rams can pull this out that is a great point Chris

the way that McVeigh has run that offense since like, like, since really Baker has come around and all that, just the amount of motion they've started putting back in there that they used to always do. Always. I feel like their offense, like last year with Stafford and like this year, early in the year, their offense was so stagnant.

It was just line up in 11 personnel and then go. Also a lot more shotgun than they were used to because Stafford like shotgun. Right. And now they're doing a lot more of their conduct. fence splits, having someone motion every snap, which, I mean, they've started to throw in the three to five jet sweeps per game, which was part of that infrastructure back in like 2018, 2019. So it's a great call out there because if any, like, if you're a fan out there, go watch like

week seven Rams game versus like week 16 Rams game and just watch the difference between how that offense sets how the offense sets up pre-snap yeah i mean there's even talk like on on the interwebs that they're going to retain baker in the off season whether staffer comes back or not as their backup and that's that might be a good situation for baker he might need some time just to develop stay in the same system for more than one year you know like that that could actually be a good little reclamation project for for mcvay because it kind of seems like and i know kelly stafford is definitely like she likes to shoot from the hip with her words so but definitely seems like stafford's actually considering you know maybe not playing much longer i think he'll come back next

year but yeah he said you know he said he was going to come back next year yeah but you're right i mean baker's bakers baker's shown that he's got it he was a number one overall pick for a reason and he was successful for a season in Cleveland. Oh, yeah. He got hurt. I mean, it's not the worst idea to take a guy who like that, who kind of does play similar to how Stafford played early in his career, a little bit more like, I mean, he doesn't have the arm that Stafford had,

but from like the decision making a little bit, being more reckless, taking chances, turning the ball over. That was something Stafford dealt with or did when he was younger too. So a lot still does at times. So if there's someone that could help dial that in, it's playing under Stafford and under McVeigh as well, I think. Yeah. I mean, Baker, everything he's struggled with in his career has been between the years.

You know, it's not a talent issue. We know the arm can be ridiculous when he's dialed in. So when he's feeling it and he's throwing with anticipation and, you know, sticking to the keys that he knows. he can be very good. It's just he's a little broken with the way he's seeing the game of football right now. So I think that's getting better though already with McVeigh.

All right. Last game of the slate, last regular season game of the season. The Detroit Lions travel to Lambeau Field on Sunday night football for what could be a division game. But my take is that I don't think it matters what happens in the Rams Seattle game. I think Detroit plays this game the exact same way with the exact same intensity. They want to keep the Packers out of the playoffs either way. So

Dan Campbell wants his first winning season under his belt. He's going to have these guys fired up and they are going to play their behinds off. So I think you get the same level of intensity, you know, whether Detroit has a shot for the playoffs or not. Yeah, it's, I think Detroit probably wins this game. It's my non-home review. Green Bay has done nothing in their resurgence to really excite me. Christian Watson's obviously been a thing, but he's dealing with injury again. And, you know, I don't, if you look at the game flow of the last few games that they've won, it's just not, there's nothing special that they're doing. So what do you think about? So over the past five or six weeks in particular, it really seems like

the way Detroit is moving the ball, who they're moving it through is really moved away from Amonra St. Brown a good bit. He's obviously still pretty involved, but not remotely like he was early in the year. Is that a good thing? Is that something they need to get more involved? What do you think? Some of it has been game script. So, for one, they've been getting their explosive.

plays back. They went through a stretch in the middle of the year where they weren't getting those explosives, something Dan and Ben Johnson have emphasized a lot. The first like five, six weeks when they were leading the NFL in point scored, they were also leading the NFL on explosive play rate in the run game and the past game. And that kind of died down. Even when they started their win streak, they weren't really getting those explosives. All their drives are super methodical. And so anytime you're in a long methodical drive, St. Brown's going to get a lot of those opportunities. But the last few weeks you've seen, I mean, they've had multiple 40-yard plays in every game. You know, they had a kick return touchdown. They've had defensive touchdowns.

Jameson Williams, you know, bomb for a touchdown. Jameson-Williams 40-yard end-around. I think Swift had a long one this week. Like, it's, they're just getting, so they're not really needing those chain mover plays as much, and that's what St. Brown does. Yeah, it just very much feels like we've gone. Like, it was so easy to compare. St. Brown to Cooper Cup early in the season. And the offenses were so similar in that way that they have like this one focal, mostly slot receiver and everybody else is kind of ancillary. And now they're almost more like the Bills where strong offense and you have no idea

where the ball is going every week or every play. I'm looking at his target numbers. I mean, going back to the Bills game, 12 targets, 11, 10, 10. He's getting targets. is just not he was moving them he was it seemed like there were more bigger targets last 13 targets

against the Panthers I think yeah he just hasn't had a big play in a while is honestly what it is like part of it I believe is that Detroit has gone two weeks without playing in a super competitive game and so he had 13 targets

against the Panthers yeah I mean that's I as I say he's he's sad I mean I think he's still been like above six seven or seven almost every game. It's just I feel like it where his third down is his money down and he makes he has those chain moving plays keeps the drive on task but I feel like the pivotal like how pivotal down like those situations have been they haven't been as pivotal the last two weeks and so we don't hear as much out of St. Brown but I think it is yeah this this past week too they were

destroying the bears like the the lines ran for a franchise record rushing ardux. so I mean they were just pounding the rock yeah I'm not saying it's wrong I'm just curious if you thought that it's a design change or or not at all the target numbers are still there he just hasn't had like that

that big explosive play that he was getting early in the year he hasn't scored a touchdown in a while either I don't think which probably yeah it's but he hasn't had less than 10 targets until this week since the bills game Bill's game he had 11 so yeah I mean yeah it'll be better for them if they can attack teams in multiple ways instead of only having him earlier in the year you're seeing chart chart did have a little bit of an emergence in there too he had back to back like they weren't quite hundred yard games but basically 100 yard games that helped jameson had you know had a long one in there so they are they're just attacking defenses in multiple ways and he's just not getting the explosives that he was yeah and I They've obviously, Jameson Williams is an addition to the offense that didn't play against Green Bay. It'll be interesting to see that.

He's been more and more involved in the offense. He's still garnering about a target, a game. They're trying to find ways to get him open. And I think that if you look to DJ Chark as kind of a blueprint for this, it took about nine weeks for Chark and Gough to, now Chark was injured a little bit in there, but it took about nine to 12 weeks for golf to get that connection with Chark. And I imagine I think that type of trajectory for that connection is coming for James and Williams and golf as well. And so it'll be interesting to see if this is a game or if it doesn't happen until next season.

But either way, having James and Williams on the field stresses the Green Bay defense even more. and in that in that in the week nine game against these two teams golf and rogers played probably their two of their worst games they had played all season so it'll be interesting to see how they bounce back from that as well because while going back and watching that game it was 15 to nine the lions won the game but golf did not play well play well he missed a ton of throws and rogers obviously did not play well he had three interceptions some of what both teams have kind of kind of been much better offensively since that game. Yes. And while in Detroit, I think they figured out the run game last game. Now, granted,

Chicago is also terrible against the run. But so is Green Bay. Green Bay has not has not been great against the run this year. But the development has been in the Packers run game has come alive finally, which I think is a huge cat, which is a huge thing for their offense to keep the ball moving. And for Detroit, it's been multiple,

like multiple weapons being available and open and just being able to out talent people, which I don't think you'd ever thought you'd be able to say that with the Lions. But they are. I think they're just trotting out more talent on offense than a lot of defenses at times. Yeah, this game is not a, it's, it's Kenton, the Detroit defense, stop the Packers. Not that the Packers are a superpowered offense. but they that's my worry yeah and well the try's good for a free touchdown a week usually they've been terrible against the run recently um they're giving up like the third most explosive plays and

erin jones and a j dylan have actually seemed to get it going a little bit recently in terms of ripping off bigger chunks of plays yeah and rogers i mean rogers has played better but i don't his stats and film have not shown that he's played insanely amazing. You know, he had those couple weeks where Christian Watson was, you know, rattling off a touchdown or two every week. But since then, Rogers and that passing offense has come down to Earth a little bit. And Detroit's Bass defense has been top eight in the league in the, from weeks 9 to 17, and arguably probably even a little bit better.

more recently. The interceptions haven't been there for the past defense, but they've still been holding teams below 60% completion percentage. But like you said, Chris, it's the run game. Because if Green Bay can control the line of scrimmage and run all over Detroit, I think it's over, I think the Green Bay's run game is getting a little overrated, to be honest. I've heard this a lot from a lot of people.

They've had a few games. where they've popped, like, last week, but they've, like, recently they've had multiple games where they've averaged less than four yards of carry on good volume, too. Like, it's, it's okay. It's not, it's gotten better, but it's just okay. Like, they were good against the Vikings, but like. So, on, I don't know, on the season, Green Bay is fourth in non-QB yards before contact per attempt.

So it's not, they've been pretty good all year. if you take in the whole sample and then recently even if you... That offensive line is good. Yeah, they're leading the league if you do it since week 12. Green Bay's offensive line is good, which is going to be a true battle because Detroit's defensive line has played well outside of Carolina. Detroit's defensive line has come alive both in the, both in pass rush and in defending the run.

And I think a big key is watching film from the week nine game. is the difference between how much Green Bay loves to roll Aaron Rogers out of the pocket, things like that. Like they love using RPO's and quick decision stuff, a quick game with Aaron Rogers. And they also love rolling him out, getting him out of the pocket, getting him on the move.

And it'll be interesting to watch Aidan Hutchinson defend that because in week nine, you still saw Detroit's ends really squeezing that offensive line on rollouts and play action and that didn't happen as hard against Chicago now obviously Joseph Fields is a different threat than Aaron Rogers but I think that it'll be it'll be interesting to see how Aiden Hutchinson defends that because Green Bay took advantage of Detroit a couple times in week nine on rollouts and things like that as most teams did early in the season against Detroit but you've seen development and how the ends and how Detroit defends those defends rollouts you're later in

season than they did beginning of the season. So that's another situational thing I'm interested to watch with this game. And I think, you know, if they can, if they can slow down that rollout game, that type of offense for Green Bay, then again, they have another good chance. Chris, what are the, where are the Packers rank in yards before contact per carry since week 15? Since week 15 They

2.06 Which looks like it's top Top 8 Top 8 So their backs really aren't creating anything for them Because they I mean Oh like after the after contact

Yeah after contact Which Is interesting Jones definitely doesn't look like the same player He's been No I think he's dealing with some kind of injury Yeah Can green

AJ Dillon does look better than what he started out this season. CPD, which was a low bar to clear. But even that, it's like, was that one game? Because if you go week 15 to 17, AJ Dillon's averaging three yards of carry,

3.3 yards of carry. That's what I'm saying. Like recently, I don't think they've actually, like, I chart all the run plays here. So like I'm, I have not been impressed with the run game.

That's why when everyone's like, oh, the run game has been so good lately, I'm like, I don't actually. know that that's true. But I'm more watching the running backs. So,

um, yeah, I, Dylan, the thing with Dylan, that's great, if, if he plays a team with poor defensive tackles,

he, he, he does really well because he needs, like, a full runway to get that, that buildup speed. If he can't, like,

if McNeil and bugs hold up in this game, I think, I think they'll be fine stopping Dylan. I think we're, the lions might have trouble is Aaron Jones in the past game and he's killed them in the past too actually he's been a lie I mean

Aaron Jones has basically built his career off of estimating the lions I mean yeah I did it actually isn't saying the amount of his career statistics that have come against the Detroit Lions yeah and yeah he he the last few weeks he's averaging six yards of carry on the ground So he's been playing well.

And from that department, they'll, but hey, they'll still feed in AJ Dylan. And like you said, as long as he's not getting up to the second level, clean, then you're fine.

If he's making it up to the linebackers with the full head of steam, like you said, that's where he gets the five yards of carry. And, you know, he looks, everybody starts talking about the,

you don't want to defend A.J. Dylan in the cold. You know, he's a big bruising back. When he hits you, it stings. Like, we didn't get a we didn't get derrick henry winner this year either yeah right right it's almost like it's not not that impactful as people think it's but yeah if they didn't get a hat on on dillon at the line of scrimmage i think the lines will be fine

um it's an exciting did christian watson play the last time they played yes he did he had yes he had one good catch where they brought him across where rogers escape pressure they got him outside he was running across the middle of the field other than that he was not getting the snaps that he gets now and right so it's not he wasn't full time yeah no and the packers were packers were losing guys every other play that game they lost erin jones that game they lost romeo dubs they lost dubs that game so dubs got first quarter they were down a lot of weapons against the lions and they still kept it they lost watson in that game i'm gonna say watson didn't play a lot and if dumps got hurt they lose what was it that they lost Watson

because they were I think Watson left with like a hammy or something they were losing everybody I came in it I mean it obviously shaped the trajectory but it's also the Lions were a completely different team that was that that was the game that really kind of like you know was the catalyst behind getting this run going that they've

been on where you know they're 8 and 1 or 8 and 2 or whatever the record is down the strut and the and the Lions didn't have their full complement of weapons on offense. Tom Kennedy was running out on on offense. So it was not quite equal, but it was close. It was close. I think that I think Detroit wins this. I stand by what I said last on Wednesday that Green Bay has faced a weak schedule down the stretch. They've played well,

but it's been propped up by a somewhat weak schedule and some very good defensive turnover, not necessarily luck but part of it is luck uh turnovers and then special teams coming alive it hasn't been on the back of like erin rogers playing super well and back to his MVP form erin rogers has still been middle of the pack leading the bottom third of the pack in quarterback stats it's just that finally the team around him has woken up and they've gotten healthier and they've gotten some production out of guys that they either weren't or were hurt earlier in the year. So outside of Lazard, the last time they played, no other wide receiver played more snaps

than three of their tight ends. Mercedes-Lewis, Robert Tunyan, and Josiah Degara all played more snaps than the next closest receiver was Samaria turn. Yeah, Zeruroy. Lazzard played 65 snaps. Sammy Watkins played 16. Amy Watkins was out there a bunch. Oh, that's right.

I forgot. Not on the team anymore. And then Amari Freaking Rogers played 19 snaps. Also not on the team anymore. Right. He played more than Watson, actually. Romeo Dubs got hurt on the first play of the game. Yeah.

He called like an 18-yard ball. I know he got hurt on like a slant. There was an ETA. It was an in-rout right at the beginning of the game. And he got tackled weird. So Watson must have also gotten banged up that game because there's no way he doesn't play more snaps. I don't know.

I just searched the injury cues for that game, and I couldn't find any with Watson in it. That was mid-season when he was kind of, like he was kind of still, like, he was pre-breakout. He was hurt a little bit here and there. He also didn't have the rapport with Rogers yet, which we all know that's also a roadblock. You have to get past for Green Bay.

The very next week, he went four catches, 107 yards, and three touchdowns against Cowboys. So Detroit. I don't know what happened. I don't know what happened that game. Detroit should play. I hope Detroit plays Zone. I hope Detroit plays Zone this week and not as much man.

Yeah. Chris, what do you think? Who do you think pulls this game out? I hate to do this to you guys, but I think the Packers won this game. All right. I just, I don't like how. Lions play on the road. I know they've had some success on the road, but that's a good point.

It's also had a, you know, it's been up and down on the road. I'll say that. Yes, it has. For the Lions, they've been good on the road. Yes, yes, exactly. Yeah, in general, they've been much, especially offensively, they've been much worse on the road. Yeah. You put this game in Detroit, and I think I might lean that way.

But there's, I don't know. man, Aaron Rogers just finds a way. And I just don't like this lion's defense. It's just not good. I know it was good last week, obviously, but bears are not good either. Yeah.

And they just, I just think the things that they're the worst at are things that Rogers can exploit with Watson getting open and just running away from everybody. They're going to let somebody free anyway. and now you put a guy that is bigger and faster than everybody else on the field, too. I do think the run game has been better. Maybe it's not spectacular, but it's definitely better, and the Lions have struggled there. I'm just really struggling to find places where I think the Lions have the edge in this game.

I think their offense will be fine, but I also think the Green Bay defense has been better. It has. Not anything crazy, but been better. so it's just across the board I'm just like I don't like where do I feel great about the Lions yeah I think we probably just see it a little differently I think the Lions offense is better than Green Bay's I don't think Green Bay will be able to

Oh yeah yeah I think the Lions offense is better than Green Bayes too But yeah I don't think Green Bay will be able to run the ball against the lines the lines have been good against every non-mobile quarterback team against the run So Except for Carolina No, that's not true, though. Darnell, Darryl, this is pretty mobile.

He's a pretty athletic dude. And they were using Darrell on speed option and read option plays. Like, you're not going to see Rogers keep it on a read option. You're just not. I mean, they're middle of the pack and non-QB yards before contact per attempt. So they're not bad. They're not great against either. They need their linebackers that have high discipline.

Yep. linebackers of high discipline there's like I mean the Packers don't really use any misdirection either which is what killed them in that Panthers game so I yeah I don't think

I'm not saying the Packers will get completely blanked in the run game but I think it will I don't think they're going to get these you know multiple 30 40 yard runs that you've been seeing against these mobile quarterbacks so I mean shoot they did it in week week nine or whatever they shut down the Packers run game so Yeah.

Rogers actually led the Packers in rushing that day. Yeah. Ironically. Yeah. Yeah. One big run against a man coverage where you just see this wide open green nothing that he has in front of him. And it's a bunch of guys turning their backs to him.

Yeah. So ultimately, I think what this game will come down to is like Rogers is a better quarterback than golf. And can he make enough of those extra type plays? Yeah. To transcend this game. And he probably can. It's not a matter if he, you know, if he can.

I think he can. It says, will he? Yeah. So it should be a great game, though. I'd rather the lines make the playoffs. I think that would be more fun. But, Detroit got good pressure in the game against Green Bay last time,

and that affected Aaron Rogers. Because if you go back and watch, Green Bay's receivers were getting open. Aaron Rogers had ample opportunities to hit so many deep shots. Like when I tell you that guys were running open, but A, I think, A, Rogers looked off, like I said, Rogers looked off. It was one of his worst games of the season. He was missing, he was missing. He did miss some. He was missing throws and guys that are not even missing throws, but not seeing throws that are normally his bread and butter. And so, but, dude, this is,

here the thing. It was catalyzed with pressure. So it'll be interesting to see, can the lions continue producing pressure? Because they have the last. few weeks, except for Carolina. Really, the last nine weeks, they've pressured the quarterback. And except against Carolina, and that's where they got beat. So it'll be. And they didn't, well, they weren't given the opportunity to pressure the quarterback. That too.

But Rogers, so the lion's secondary has played so much better since that day. And that the bar is low, obviously. And they haven't played good. But that game was, oh, my God, dude. The potential for mayhem in that game was pretty high. they definitely dodged a few bowls. Thankfully, that passers got home. And Rogers, the last few years,

like early in his career, pressuring Rogers is almost a mistake. It's like that's when he pulled the rabbit out of it. The last few years, though, even the MVP years, it's like, shoot, you've seen it when he doesn't have Bactiari out there. Like, he changes the way he plays. So if the lions get pressure on him,

you will see Rogers turn into a very conservative thrower. He's going to dink and dunk and get frustrated and be weird and I that that is definitely a big underrated key is like how good this lion's passers has been lately like that that could be a big deciding factor as well and no we golf doesn't play good under pressure either so so for my personal interest who which of these two teams has a better chance of beating the nineers in the playoffs because that's likely who they would be playing I mean probably the nineers have the Packers number in the playoffs the last And now they do.

You're right. Because this would be the third year in a row that they'd play each other in the playoffs. Yeah, you're right. And San France won last two. The Lions lost to the 49ers by three last year? That was a weird game, too. It was a weird game. It was a weird game.

But still, I mean, they've played the 49ers closer than the Packers have in recent history. I think, I mean, lions maybe match up a little bit better just because they can get more pressure. but I don't know who I don't know if anybody matches well against San Francisco the way they've been playing lately that was my fault it's like okay if they match up better what's the percentage chance that's my that's the thing is like unfortunately it's probably a one and a one and done scenario for whoever wins this game but I mean I don't think it's I I'm sure you'll talk about it more next week with the playoff picture set but I think the NFC playoffs are going to be the best wildcard round of playoffs we've possibly seen ever like Every single team, I think, is a very real chance of winning. Yeah. I can send off on that. The 49ers do, I mean, Brock Purdy's been okay, but he's still Brock Purdy. Right.

Right. That opens the door for things to happen. All right. Any closing thoughts before we get off? Because we do have to get off, unfortunately. We could talk to you guys all day. No, I think we're good. All wrapped.

All wrapped. All wrap. Excited for the. the last week of the season and to see how playoffs shake out. Yeah, are you guys actually going to show up to work next week? Still got six games on next week.

Yes, it is six, isn't it? Yep. That's why I always say. It doesn't really slow down until we get to division. True. Especially because we kind of reduce the usefulness of the part-time staff. True.

As we at the playoffs, so we end up doing, I mean, it's not as much work, let's be honest, but it is still a decent amount of work. So, right. All right, cool. Well, thank you guys so much for listening. We had a blast. Tune in on Wednesday.

We'll kind of break down. Steve, I don't have a plan for next week yet. There's a chance we do a preview. I have a few things that I put, that potentially we could do that I would. Okay. We'll talk to you about not on air, not on air or whatever.

Yeah. Let's schedule out the next few weeks of pods right now. On air. Yeah, so we'll see you guys on Wednesday. It'll be a good time with discussing the playoff situation. And, yeah, thanks again so much for listening. I am your host, Brett Whitefield. This is Stephen Rourke and Chris Fleck, and we are out.

Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com. You know,