Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Take Talk Episode 36

Episode Date: January 13, 2023

On the eve of the NFL playoffs, hosts Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) and Steven ORourke (@callmesteveo7) break down everything you need to know for Super Wildcard Weekend. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle. From numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hello everyone and welcome in to the Take Talk podcast. I'm Stephen O'Rourke and as always I'm with my co-host, Brett Whitefield. And Brett, the time is here. The place is now. it all comes down to this.

It doesn't matter how you got here. It doesn't matter what you look like, but you're here. The playoffs have started. And I can't wait. Well, they haven't started, but they're starting. They're starting. Yes.

Dude, I'm excited. The bracket has been set. Yeah. Yeah, I'm excited. I mean, I, obviously we've been, this is like a football guy's, is the playoffs.

Like we love this time of year every year, especially guys like us. Because we actually get to watch the game, Steve. Right. You know, get to sit back and enjoy them. I'll probably, like I told,

I think I told Chris, I was like, I'm not, I'm not doing the games live on Saturday. I'm going to work that night. So I'm just going to sit back, maybe have a beer or something with my dad. Whoa.

Watch some football. It's going to be weird. Right. It's going to be great. Yeah. So, like, I'm, I'm super excited.

Plus, we got, like, compelling matchups, you know? These aren't the matchups we necessarily hoped and dreamed for when the season started. But, man, there's some games that kind of excite me, especially on the NFC side, Steve. Yeah. Yeah.

I know there were compelling matchups, and obviously we'll get to them. But in the AFC, some of those matchups are neutered because of injuries at quarterback, which obviously very unfortunate because I think that both of the, like, both the Miami and the Baltimore game would have been. competitive if those starting quarterbacks were managed. Especially that. Right. That Miami Buffalo game was like setting up to be you know,

like five weeks ago if I was like Miami Buffalo first round of the playoffs, everyone would be like, oh, that's going to be freaking awesome. Right. And Miami just kind of crap the bed down the stretch. They got both their starting two quarterbacks hurt. So they're going with the third stringer.

Yeah, they're going with the rookie seventh rounder. And let you know, you know what? why don't we just start there, Brett? Okay, yeah, we can start with that. It is the first game on Sunday. So we're not going in order here, but that's okay. Latest I've seen on Teddy, by the way, is he's questionable. So there's a chance.

There's a chance. Everything I've seen is that it points toward Skyler Thompson. Yeah. Tool has officially been ruled out. Yes. That's worth noting. That happened yesterday. Yep.

mid afternoon. That's actually why we're all, we're coming to you today on a Thursday. We wanted to, we wanted more injury information for today. Instead of our usual Wednesday, Friday, which that'll be our schedule from here.

And I'll just be Thursdays for the playoffs. But, yeah, Amy Buffalo, I think we can both agree. I mean, where like the Buffalo, this is,

it's just a formality for him almost. I hate to say that about Miami, but Skyler Thompson hasn't shown much this year. Yeah, not since the preseason at least, right? Right. Or maybe he, I think he had one relief game where he was excellent, but other than that, it's been rough.

I mean, he is a rookie. He was undrafted for a reason, you know, these aren't, these aren't shocking facts to anybody. Right. So it's just, it's not going to be pretty. And I, yeah, I feel comfortable saying that Buffalo is just going to roll through this game. I mean, anything can happen, I guess, but like, really, I don't see a way with Skyler Thompson a quarterback Miami matches up with Buffalo at all.

Yeah. Especially, Tyreek is clearly hurt, by the way. Like, we need to address that. They're not listing him on the injury port, but if you watched the tape from last week, he barely made it through that game. Yeah, he was coming in and out of that game. Like grabbing at his hamstring, grabbing at his ankle, all game long. Yeah.

So the fact that they're not listening with the injury port is such a, like, it just shows you how easy it is to avoid the rules of the NFL, because that guy is clearly hurt. Right. Tyreek, if you're listening and I'm wrong, please, please hit me up. I'd love to know. Yeah. On the podcast, we'll hash it out. Yeah, yeah.

Yeah, Tyreek, I noticed the same thing. Like, it was the beginning of the game and pretty, like, pretty soon after. I don't even remember if it was a hit or what, but he. went to the sideline and then the whole rest of the game and he'd play three plays and then he'd be out for a couple plays yeah he'd play two plays and then he'd be out for a play like it was he was picking at that ankle a lot and then the hammy he was doing the hammy walk too you you've heard a hammy before right you had to have not I fortunately never heard a really yeah it's one of the you didn't run track then I did run track I read I heard old I heard old and you never heard a hammy I never had a hamstring

injury. I'm the tightest person. I'm the muscular tightest person you'll ever meet to. I can't believe it. I don't know how. Wow, we need a science project on your hamstrings. How you never pull the hammy? Well, anyway, so there's this walk you do when you have a torn hammie. It's kind of like you walk a little bit more straight up and you kind of grab at your like lower butt slash upper hamstring area. Right. You kind of just put a little pressure there and it takes a little bit of that pain off and you kind of got this weird wiggle. Well, Tyreek was doing the hammy walk. like most of the game and like at least the second half so like he's got an ankle seems like he's got a hammy i don't know that that's a huge blow to them as well though as guess is what i'm getting at is if

tyree can't if he's not 100% now he's a that dude plays through a lot we already know that from his time into the city he'll probably give it a go of course and he'll be good but like right if he doesn't have that top gear that does nerve him a little bit and on top of having the weird QB situation that offense could be limited. Yeah, and they, their defense, I just don't think their defense is stout enough to keep their offense in the game. This, as long as Josh Allen doesn't turn the ball over, he doesn't fall into this trap that he's fallen into every, sometimes this year where he'll turn the ball over in the red

zone and things like that, I think that Buffalo, they're going to be able to move the ball fine. I don't think Skylar Thompson's coming at them with anything new. It's too bad because from what Miami was when they were eight and three after week 11 or a week 11 or 12 and we were all excited about everybody was getting excited and Mike McDaniel is being talked about. It's just too bad to see them at this point now compared to where they were then. Yeah, I would expect the dolphins come into this game with a different package for Thompson, maybe a little bit more of a run-heavy approach with him.

You know, some QB power type stuff, a lot of read option, you know, which they're capable of doing naturally, but I think they're going to build, they'll probably build some extra stuff into the playbook for him this week to kind of give Buffalo another look and try to, you know, put their really, really, really good linebackers in conflict a little bit more. That's another thing that's a big win for Buffalo, even with a healthy Miami team is like, they're so solid in the middle of that defense that a lot of these yards after catch it and short throw

this quick game RPO any of screens like those linebackers are very very capable of shutting that down and the safety. So I do think this is even healthy this is plus Buffalo easily. It is played in Buffalo.

Buffalo is also still probably riding that emotional high. I've seen DeMar get better. You know, the trauma they went through the one week and then the glory and joy of seeing him, you know, doing better and being discharged from the hospital. Like, I think that's going to be an emotional high for them. Absolutely.

So, yeah. Absolutely. I agree. Do you just score a prediction? Oh, go ahead. Well, so, Brett, that's what I was going to say. I'm proposing a change for the playoffs. Let's do our picks.

Let's do our previews during and then let's do our picks at the end. previews during picks. Previews, like in the beginning, we'll do our picks all in a row and just rattle off the games so that it's more like clear and concise to we pick. That's fine. We just got to be more discreet then with the way we're talking about the game. I mean, not with that game. I don't know.

Okay. All right. Let's back up then. Let's start with the Saturday 430 p.m. game. Seattle goes to San Francisco. These two teams have already played each other twice. Yep. It has not gone super well for Seattle in either game.

In fact, I would venture to say Gino's two worst games were against San Francisco, no? Yeah, they were. The last one went south after, I think, a Gino interception. Yeah. Like, it was close. It was 7 to 3. It was early in the game. Gino threw an interception, and then it kind of went south after that.

I would, you know, I spent some time, was it Tuesday? My days are still running together, but I think it was Tuesday night. I spent some time just watching some Gino tape, kind of going through our data as well, doing some quality control checks and stuff like that. Gino, for as good as he's played this year, and I do want to credit him a ton, he has had an absolute breakout season,

and he's definitely established himself as a worthy starter in the NFL. Yes. That said, he has had some insane turnover-worthy luck this year. There are a lot of instances where he's throwing the ball right into the breadbasket defender, and he's just not catching. Like, in several games, Steve. And that was like, this is crazy

Because the narrative flips Like if he threw 20 picks this year The narrative would be so different That's basically what he's done And you can say that there's a lot of quarterbacks That get some turnover worthy luck But Gino has gotten more than I can remember In recent memory

I think Stafford had a year in Detroit actually Where he was constantly putting the ball in harm's way But the defense just wasn't catching it Right And but yeah, Gino Gino's had a ton of these plays this year where he has really put the ball in harm's way and the defense wasn't able to capitalize. So it's propped him up a little bit.

That said, I still think he's played, you know, way beyond expectations. And obviously he got Seattle to the playoffs when no one, literally nobody in the world was predicting that. Like, I don't think anybody, actually. So I'd be hard pressed to find someone that thought that they could make it this far at the beginning of the season. I mean, this was, like, it was a roster that was being looked at as completely devoid of tailant. They, people thought they were going to have the first overall pick, and that's how they would replace Russ. Right, right. And psych?

Now, they still have a pretty high pick because of Denver. Yeah, it all worked out. It all worked out. Yeah, and a lot of rookies, they've had a lot of rookies contribute this year and contribute at a high, level, which is why they're here. Well, yeah, and that offensive line, they're starting two rookie tackles, too. Right. Held up for till recently.

That offensive line was, like, very good until like week 14-ish. And then they had a good game against LA this week, too. So, and that's really what we've seen development-wise from Gino is when he does get a clean pocket, Steve, he's been tremendous. He's been really, really good. The problem is, is playing San Francisco this week. He's not going to have a clean pocket very often. Yeah, yeah.

If Clean Pocket is the name of your game, San Fran is not your friendliest opponent because they're going to come at them hard and heavy the whole game, which is what they've done twice already. And it's, yeah, like you said, it's caused him conflict. And San Fran has caused conflict for everyone that they've played the last, like nine weeks. This is true.

And that train just keeps rolling. It doesn't really seem. to matter who gets in their way lately. San Fran is just a steamroller. And it doesn't, like, obviously, Brock Purdy is holding up totally fine, continues to look, continue to look in control of the offense.

And, I mean, now I, like, the run game, too, starting to get to ridiculous levels good. George Kiddles getting more involved. Eli Mitchell's healthy. Debo Samuel. is back. Coming back, yeah. They're getting healthy.

They're getting healthy and rounding into form at the right time. Like, this is exactly how you kind of picture it if you're an NFL coach and you're looking at your team. You're looking to get healthy and hot for kind of like the second time going into the playoffs. And they're setting up for that. Yeah. You know what's really interesting is Seattle's coming into this game pretty healthy, actually. actually. They're one of the healthier teams in the NFL. They do have a group of skill players that are questionable, though, and that is a little scary. Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant, and Kenneth Walker are all questionable. Now, they're gonna play. I don't think anyone's doubting that. Yeah. They've been playing. But they're banged up. I mean, right. A lot, dude, Tyler Rocket

plays through freaking everything. That guy. Yeah, he's crazy. He's an animal. He's literally Doug Baldwin 2.0. Well, it's just, he's so smart. If you want, like, when you watch him play, he's so smart and calculated about when and where he allows himself to take hits.

Yes. He is, there's like, there's time to throw for quarterbacks if there was time to ground for wide receivers, Tyler Lockett would lead the league, I believe. Because he's a, he's a catching down. So like when he gets crazy because earlier his career, he was a yak guy. Right. Like they drafted him for his yak skills. He was a phenomenal kick returner, punt returner type.

Right. And then he turned into this like Uber small possession receiver that's just phenomenal. And he'll pick his spots on where and where he can get yak. But for the most part, if he, if there's anybody in the vise, insanity, it's hands and down. And so, like, if someone's going to play injured, he's probably one of the better guys to play through an injury. For sure.

Do you know who's already doing that really well? And this is a side, a little bit of a sidebar. It's Chris Olave in New Orleans. Yeah. We made fun of him for his yards after catch ability. Right. But the more I watch him, I'm just like, no, this is his stay healthy plan. Right.

Because the other issue that a lot of people had with Olavé coming out was that he was a little bit on the smaller side. How would he hold up? Him and Lockett are like clones. Right. Like size-wise. I think Lolawe has a little more top-end speed at this point in Lockett's career. Yeah, I would.

I would say so. Yeah. No, it's a great call on Lockett. He's going to play through it and he'll probably be very effective even despite the fact that he's in a lot of pain. Yeah. Yeah, I think the story of this game, though, is going to be San Francisco defense and then that run game.

I don't see the San Francisco pass game really needing to do a whole lot. no just pick and choose your spots continue like just continue to keep brock pretty clean and you know let him what i mean whatever kyle shanhan is doing or whatever is kyle shanhan their play caller or yeah he is okay yeah so whatever kyle shanhan is doing it's working and he's he's figuring out a way to utilize his weapons and I imagine that'll keep going through. Seattle, hey, beating a, I mean, beating a team a third time is really hard to do. It is. It is tough.

It's really hard to do. And Seattle has the ability to be explosive on offense. That's what they need. If Seattle's going to win this game, they've got to get big plays from DK. They've got to hit a couple big plays to lock it. They need some big time runs from Kenneth Walker. Gino needs to move the change at his feet. that's going to have to happen a few times at least because they're going to be behind the chains a little bit, I think.

With just the amount of sacks, San Francisco can generate, plus they are pretty good against the run when they need to be. Yeah, just the way that Seattle and Kenneth Walker, just the kind of pace of their run game as well, they've been a very boomer bus. Yeah, exactly. It's a grind you down and wait to hit. Basically, like, hope to hit a 60-yard play. That's their run offense. I mean, since Kenneth Walker.

has taken over. Yeah, literally until I think this week. This game was the first game from Kenneth Walker against the Rams where I was like, oh, he's actually getting five, six yards of pop. Right. And there was no big plays in there. Right. But for the most part, yeah, you're right.

It's one, two, zero, one, two, 60. You know, that's how it goes. But in some of that is the way Walker plays. He's looking for that crease, looking for that big play. So he's going to be a little more patient back there. But yeah, so they're going to need those big plays. If they can somehow get a lead on San Francisco, I'm not saying San Francisco can't score points back.

But if there's any way for Seattle to win this game, it's to put the ball in Brock Purdy's hands and make him have to make a play. Now, I'm not even saying Brock Purdy wouldn't make a play. But if you're going to beat the 49ers, that's how you do it. Make them put the ball in the rookie's hands. And then hopefully you can force a mistake with your, your ball hawking, you know, secondary you have over there with Wollin and Diggs and those guys, you know. Right. And that's what I was, that's what I was going to follow up with is that they need like, like the big thing is being able to create turnovers. That's what, when Tariq Wollin and some of those guys have been able to create turnovers, that's when the offense starts clicking. They pick up that momentum. Obviously, that's how it works for most teams. But with Seattle, it feels like they're.

It's more important for them because their defense isn't great. They're very much fueled by us, by, by, by, splash plays. Like that's what they're predicated on is making splash plays on offense and defense. Because they're not, you know, they're not statistically numbers-wise a top, you know, 15, 20 defense. But what they do do is they, you know, they can create turnovers. They can create, they can create splash plays. And that's, you know, that's how they keep themselves in games. And their offense can't, their offense can and has scored.

30 plus points. So if they get it, their best chance is getting into a, is, you know, forcing a track meet and just saying keep up with us. Yep. That is their best chance. All right. Let's go to the late game that night. I like, is the format always been 43815 on Saturday? So I, I don't remember that for some reason.

I don't remember for the divisional if that's how it is. I know for conference play, it's like 3.30. It's like 3 and 630 for like conference championship. Yeah, yeah. I don't remember for divisional. I just don't remember like a Monday night game for divisional. I don't remember that either. So, but this is only the second year with, with six games week one.

True. But yeah, so the second game that day, the 815 game is the Chargers visiting the Jaguars of Jacksonville. And this is actually an intriguing game to me. I mean, I would be, I would say it's the best game. Game of the weekend. Ooh. You put Game of the Week title on. I like it.

Yeah. It's too, like, if you, just looking at it from all angles of, you have two of the, like, most exciting young quarterbacks coming up in the league right now, going at it, going against each other with, like, L.A., who, I mean, they, I feel like ever since Herbert came around, actually, I take that back before Herbert came around for the last. 15 to 20 years. The Chargers have been a darling team for a lot of people. True.

They don't ruffle any feathers. Nobody really views them as your rival. Like, that's not a thing. They have no fans. No, they were all just hanging out in San Diego. And now they're just hanging out in Los Angeles, but they did that after the Rams. And so, like, the Chargers were always a team that was super fun,

super talented, but never lived up to it. And so, like, they're just a very endearing team to the public, I think. And then everybody, like, everybody empathizes with Trevor Lawrence and what he had to go through. Because we all agree that Urban Meyer is a scumbag who, apparently, who, like, could have tanked Trevor Lawrence's career. But, again, here he is with, you know, reclaiming his, his progression. and now he's looking to be on a path to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. And so like from all that standpoint, it's just an exciting game because I think it's just two quarterbacks that everybody's kind of taken under their wing and said like,

oh, we love you. And now they're playing against each other. Oh, for sure. I mean, and this game really comes down to that. Like these teams kind of eerily mirror each other in a lot of ways. where they have the stud, presumably stud young quarterback, sorry. I don't want to give Lawrence the title that he is a stud young

young quarterback because he's played good for about six games, like really, really good. We need to see more from him, but. That's what I tried to say he's on his, I, I tried to raise it a little bit. But this game is going to come down to quarterback play. Like they're very similar on defense. They have the potential to be very good defensive teams,

but it hasn't really all come together. for one reason or another. And they're both extremely athletic defenses. Yeah. With a lot of these hybrid-type players that can do multiple roles and multiple things. They've got good, good cornerback play, generally speaking. You know, so these teams kind of weirdly mirror each other. It will come down to which quarterback makes the most plays to me.

Yeah. And unfortunately, the Chargers might be without Mike Williams. I know they listed them as questionable. But for whatever reason, fake sharp Joe Staley, decided to play all of his players Brandon Staley That's yeah Joe Staley

Did I say Joe Staley Not former offensive tackle Joe Staley But Brandon Staley Fake Sharp Yeah Played all of his Fake Sharp

Yeah I think The listeners at this point I have to know Who we're referring to When we say Fake Sharp right Yeah they have to So fake sharp

Steve this is so funny to me you know, he didn't play a single starter in the preseason. Yeah, you're right. So what's the disconnect there? Like, you value not getting guys hurt enough to not even play a single one of your starters in the preseason. Not one snap, Steve. They didn't play.

Right. And then in a meaningless NFL game at the end of a year, you played your entire, not just like a half. They played almost the entire game, your entire starting lineup. They all, and Mike Williams gets hurt, unfortunately. because he's playing in a meaningless game. Which, I mean, it sounds like thankfully he's, I mean, you had said it. He's questionable, but I think he's going to go.

Like, it was, it looked bad. That could have been a potentially really bad back injury. Oh, it looked terrible when it happened. Yeah. Yeah. Yep. So, yeah, I mean, I would imagine he's somewhat limited though, even if he goes. But that said, I think this comes down.

down to QB play. I think whoever makes more plays between Herbert and Lawrence, I think that's the victor of the game. Yeah. Yeah, I agree. It'll be interesting to see how both teams defend each quarterback. I know that the Chargers have been one of the most man-heavy teams in the NFL this year. They've consistently been like top five to seven in man-coverage percentage.

in a game all year. And Trevor Lawrence has been one of the better quarterbacks against man coverage. He's 11 to 11 to one touchdown interception ratio. He's at about 108 pass a rating, 68% completion percentage. He performs well against man coverage. So it'll be interesting to see if L.A.

plays a little bit more zone against Trevor Lawrence or what way they go there. And like Trevor Lawrence just needs to be smart. he every once in a while you'll see him make a questionable throw and he's going to have to eliminate those because this is a charged offense that's come that is on the flip side coming in and they've been humming ever since like keen and a Lowe had this ever since they've had their guys healthy which we kind of thought might happen when we were in that midseason lull and he was throwing to only Josh Palmer and D'Andre Carter and things like that

Austin Eccler and now it's back to where he has his compliment of weapons, and he's even getting Parham more involved in, like, games. So the offense, the offense, and as well as I think Joe Lombardi, who I noticed watching film that when Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were out, they neutered their playbook quite a bit. He didn't trust those receivers to do, like, do anything close to what he asked Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to do.

Which, I mean, we mocked him relentlessly for that on the pod. It's tough because I get the train of thought. Like, we have two, I mean, he likes to point this out himself. We have two $20 million receivers on our team. Yes. So, yes, it's pretty, I guess it's pretty common sense that if you remove those guys from your offense, your offense changes. Right. To the degree of which it changed didn't make a whole lot of sense to me, though.

And there was zero creativity in what they were doing. And that's, and also it's just. It's stupid, in my opinion, because how are you going to develop, like, you're just ruining development by just not exposing guys to different elements because you deem them, I don't know, unworthy or whatever. You know, what's crazy is then Josh Palmer ends up emerging as a pretty good receiver during that stretch, at the end of that stretch, if you remember. Right.

But like, hey, Joe, maybe that was there five weeks ago. You could have tried getting him down. a little bit more and not throwing him 14 three yard out routes a game. Yeah, instead of just running levels and, uh, levels and stick for, on a lot of, right. Yeah. But it had,

but it has, but it is nice, you've gotten to see Justin Herbert unleash it a little bit more and, you know, he's obviously like, he had that rib injury midway through the year. But I think he's, yeah,

he's hitting on all cylinders right now and he's facing a jacksville secondary that's kind of hitting on all cylinders as well. Ever since that Detroit game, Jacksonville's secondary has come alive. And that defense has really come alive after getting kind of buried in that game. And they've gone on a stretch here where they've been playing a lot better defense

and they've just stopped. It's almost like they stopped thinking. Yes. And they just started doing. I kind of think it actually started before that Detroit game. I'm trying to remember. So the week before Detroit, they went to overtime was against the Ravens?

They almost did. They went for two and one. That's right. They went for two and one and beat the Ravens. I felt like that game was actually the game we saw the Jaguars turn the corner. And then for whatever reason, they just completely fell apart against the Lions a week later. But really that that stretch or that game was kind of what started that Uber run.

You just remove that Lions game out of there. And they've been, they've played really, really good football since. that moment. Right. Yeah, literally if you take out that Detroit game, they're right with, you know, some of the better past defenses given up just in from weeks 11 to week 18. Or that's even when did that? What week did they play the Lions?

12. 12. Okay. So if you include, yeah, if you include the Lions game, it looks okay. If you take out the Lions game, it looks better. And they're only giving up 66% completion percentage. but only at a 6.6 yards per cent rate. They, you know, are creating, they're creating turnovers and not giving up big plays.

And that's the MO of their defense is they have fast guys. So just they play more of the let them get the ball and then just swarm to them. Yeah. Yes, sir. All right. I feel like we've covered that game well. Yeah. Battle of the Young Stud Cubies.

It's going to be fun and the Chargers do look like a team that is that could go on a run. Yeah, it depends how things shake out for them. Right. Bracket-wise. But they did get Joey Bosa back. Yeah, and that's huge for their defense. That's massive. We didn't really touch on their defense, but.

Yeah, I compared them to Jacksonville's defense and just said that they're built very similarly. A lot of athletes, good, good secondary, decent pass rush. Yeah. Joey Bosa changed. is that run defense from what it was from being a completely abysmal all year and that's that's the only that's the last thing I wanted to touch on is that I was like the run defense did does and should get better with Joey Bosa yep all right the first game uh or we already covered the first game on Sunday the second game on Sunday is 4.30 p.m. the giants traveled to Minnesota to play the Vikings this game

is like on one hand terrible and on the other hand exciting because it should be a good game and this game was epic earlier in the season when they played. This is one of the ones I'm excited for I think this should be a really good tightly fought game

the Giants have completely over you know exceeded expectations for the season so I mean they're playing with like house money at this point if they get popped I don't even know if they I mean they of course care but like man you got to love the direction they're going in.

And then Minnesota has kind of been playing like this fluky brand of football all year long. And we're kind of all just waiting for their luck to run out. And it might be this week, Steve. Yeah. Playing a Giants team that minimizes mistakes and just kind of grinds you down is not really conducive to not. really conducive to the way Minnesota plays. And, yes, did Minnesota win their first

match up on? Yeah, Minnesota won all the fluky games. Exactly, but it was, again, it was still, it was another fluky ish. What week was that? Game was it? And that's what Minnesota.

That's what Minnesota does this year is they just, they just need to keep themselves close. If they hang around, you're in trouble. But if you can pull away, they're not really, like, they're easier to take down. Ask Jeff Saturday about that, Steve. Well, again, I was going to say against good teams, if you can maintain a lead. Like when they went down to Detroit or Dallas or who they just get blown out by the other week.

But, or green, yeah, Green Bay. when they went down to those teams, they couldn't really fight back. It's against those lesser teams, some of those bottom feeding teams this year that they were able to, you know, create the interceptions and the turnover plays and take advantage of the sloppiness of the other team.

But when they played good teams that take care of the ball, they have a little bit harder of a time sticking around. Yeah, this game was hilarious, actually, because this was the 61-yarder, from Greg Joseph early in the season as time expired to win the game. But the reason this game was so funny is because we know

the Vikings past defense is terrible. And Daniel Jones put up 334 passing yards in this game with his leading receivers were Richie James, Isaiah Hodgins, and Darius Slayton.

They all had between 80 and 90 yards. Yeah, and those are probably three best receivers going into this. game too they are point being is you're not going to beat many teams in the past game with those three guys but the one team you probably can beat is the minnesota vikings exactly so but i do expect sakewon barclay to have about 40 touches in this game like they rested him last week on purpose this dude's coming in fresh first playoff game of his career i believe believe yes i can be i can be fact checked on that um i think they're going to give him the ball 40 times i agree i think

like give the ball to your horse and let him go and let him kind of decide the game and then build your game plan off of that i wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of a lot of read option a lot of rpo a lot of like you know yeah building this building this offensive game plan for new york around sequin and then you know fleshing out play action and play action and you know the rest of their game plan like that like their play action rate is absurd from under center. That's all they do with Daniel Jones is if he's going under center, it's probably going to be either a run or a play action pass, and that's it. But they've been successful with it, so it doesn't, like it doesn't matter.

And that's what, you know, I think it's obviously a vulnerable Minnesota defense. And New York does have an improved offensive line compared to where they were, you know, in the middle of the season, where they were kind of giving up a ton of pressure.

pressure to Daniel Jones, that's healthier and more short up. So I think that if they can negate the rush from Minnesota, then they absolutely give themselves a very good chance to win this game. If they can keep Daniel Jones clean. I agree. Yeah, Evan Neal's played better. Yep. Andrew Thomas has been awesome.

Yep. And then for, I think that's. What do you think, what do you think for the Minnesota? So what do you think is the key for the Minnesota offense? Because I feel like they've been not a lot more, but the run game hasn't been there as much lately. I was going to credit them actually on their play calling because past Vikings teams, what we've seen them do,

this doesn't matter if the run game's there or not, Dalvin Cook's going to run into a wall 30 times. Right. And they've done a good job of realizing when it's not there and pivoting away from that and just going with a heavy pass. now what they need to not do is throw dink and dunk to t j and cook and you know feeling and some of these the short passing game stuff is just obnoxious they do it way too much yeah um even with jefferson they give them so many short targets i'm just like can we stretch the field a little bit here

kj osborne's been playing pretty good lately too so i think that's a good dynamic that that really helps them uh i yeah i think they're going to have to try to move move the ball through the air, though, because Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams, guys, they're just going to, they're going to be good against the run. So, yeah, it's a, it's a runoffence that has been faltering down the, down the finish of the season. Delvin Cook did not finish the season in a great way. Minnesota offensive line outside of Dairsaw and losing Brian O'Neill, like that was big. They're a team that, they're a unit that has not been playing exceptional.

Bradbury is questionable too, by the way. Yeah, so it's, it's tough. But like you said, credit to Kevin O'Connell not falling into the trap of some of his predecessors and saying, no, no matter what we need to pound the ball in and go. I also would like to see them work the work T.J. Hawkinson into the past game more organically than they do at times. You know what I mean? Yes, I do very much so. They prioritize targets to him. And Brett, I know you, Chris and I, we talk about it constantly, but if you just go and watch Minnesota's offense since they have required T.J. Hawkinson, you'll notice that like five to nine plays a game.

It's a very pointed target, pointed play for T.J. Hawkinson. Got to pay for that investment, son. And like 50% of the time it works. But 50% of the time, like, if you watch the Green Bay game or some of these games that they've lost in the second half of the season, you'll notice that a lot of the plays that kind of shape the way the game goes, those were plays that were designed and targeted for T.J. Hawkinson. You're not wrong. And now I'm not saying that it is all his fault. but I am saying that they're clearly like either defenses can pick up on that or it's just being forced so much to the degree that it's causing negative plays.

But that's something that I would like to see Minnesota look internally and kind of switch things up a little bit and maybe bring down just bring down the first read first read share percentage for TJ Hockinson. Let's, you know, see if we can work organically. You know it's better than 50%. what 92% is that is that um

Justin Jefferson versus T.J. Hawkinson. No. No, it's just a shout out to the, the Kelsey Boys in the New Heights podcast.

No. 92% is, is the success rate in which the Eagles run quarterback sneaks. Jeez. That's so funny. But, uh,

yeah, the Hawkins and stuff is crazy. I mean, force feeding the ball to tight ends is not ever really a good idea unless that guy is elite. And there's basically three elite tight ends in the NFL right now. Yep. It's Travis Kelsey, George Kittle, and Darren Waller.

Yep. Oh, Mark Andrews. Whoa. Although. He didn't. He wasn't this year. Well, I still think he's elite. No, I like, as a player. Super bad set of circumstances.

Yeah. This year, I don't think. Yeah. There's no reason to force feed the ball with T.J. Hawkinson. He's not that kind of. tight end. He's not that kind of player. He's a very good player, but that's where it stops. He does not have the elite abilities that these other tight ends have. He's not going to beat

man coverage the same rate, despite what several coaches have said in the media recently. He's not your, he's not that freaky toe tap or crazy athletic catch anymore guy. He's not this yak monster that maybe he was at Iowa. He's just a really, really solid player. Yeah. So they need to stop force feeding him the ball. it's going to be crazy to see what they do once they pay the man too like not to go on a tj sidebar but i do think he's he's bogging down their offense a little bit right now so it's i mean it's difficult to grapple with when you have the best wide receiver in the NFL yes or at least top three however whatever order you want to put him in

he's the best in some way shape or form he's the best yes there's and it's it's hard to grapple with when you have to justify potentially taking not all of those targets obviously but you know let's say you know five of let's say there were nine design play nine design targets for t j hawkinson what happens if we get five of those to jefferson instead and we only do you know four of those to hawkinson we do five of those move those to plays for jefferson the value to the value to jefferson is in the ups and the ups and the upside you know side of a play to Jefferson is so much higher than Hawkinson. And now obviously Jefferson garners more double teams, more cloud coverage, things like that. But I mean, it also doesn't matter. He makes a play anyway. Yep. Oh, which we've seen, you know, a gazillion times this year.

Yeah. Yeah. All right, let's move on. The night game of Sunday night is Baltimore. at sincy this is the game i'm probably the least excited for to be honest baltimore seems to be completely in shambles with the lamar jackson is m ia yeah uh but he's he's not playing it sounds like huntley might not even play they might be done anthony brown this is this is basically a an exhibition game for the bengals in my opinion and they just played

each other too and it was basically an exhibition game for them then too yeah yeah the Who wins by, like, unfortunately, who wins by more Miami or not, sorry, Cincinnati or Buffalo? Cincinnati. I would probably agree. Yeah, there's not, this is a warm-up game for Cintz to move into the next round. Baltimore's defense is going to give them a little bit of, like, they'll challenge them, but I just don't see the Baltimore offense moving the ball in a way that keeps Cincinnati off the field enough to prevent them from scoring 28 plus points.

Yeah. Yeah, Baltimore was kind of towing with them the other day, too. Like, Burrow could have, they could have absolutely gutted the Ravens, but why, why do that in that spot, you know? Right, right. Yeah, it's too bad. There's zero, zero way they're going to be able to contain Chase Higgins, Boyd, Erwin. It's just, it's not happening. and contained because your offense isn't going to

is probably not going to score more than 18 points so you'd have to hold their offense to under 18 which it's a defense that's been playing better you sense everybody's saying since the roquan trade it is since the roquan trade I don't necessarily know if it's exactly him but it's been playing better but not to the extent that I think that they can hold Cincinnati to under 20 points.

Yeah, they've played the Falcons, the Steelers, and the Browns. It's, you know, I'm not like, actually the Steelers twice, the Falcons, and the Browns. I mean, yeah, they're playing better by proxy of playing the worst offenses in the NFL. Right. It's kind of the same conversation we had with Green Bay the other day. Yeah, yeah, exactly. it's easy to look good when you're when you're getting those favorable matchups yeah so um yeah not really

much to discuss at that there's not a ton to discuss i'm excited to watch cincinnati go through these playoffs it's just it's gonna be they're a fun team they're good defense good offense it'll be i think it'll be exciting and they're probably their top three teams so it's the for the afc playoffs it's really i it's next it's next week that that in theory should be just an absolute insane weekend for the AFC. Yep. All right, let's get through this last game and then we'll, I guess, pick them out. Cowboys going to Tampa Bay, which is hilarious how that works.

Tampa Bay had a losing record. Dallas had a phenomenal record. But, hey, yeah, this actually should be a closer game than the records dictate, though. think. This is another one I'm excited for. Yeah, me too. This, I mean, this is a rematch from earlier this year. Yep. Now, way earlier this year. Week one early. Yeah, week one early. These teams are very different.

It was, uh, it was an ugly game and Tampa Bay won that one, right? Yeah, 19 to 3. Yeah, Tampa Bay won that one. So I think, like this, Dallas has been, such an interesting team since Dak has come back. That's a good way of putting it. It's just been an interesting team because their offense can and has gone off at any moment, but Dak partly partly because of his own mistakes and partly because of bad turnover luck, Dak has given the other team chances in almost every game.

And it's either proven, like some of them have been very costly. the Jacksonville game against Washington last week. And some of them have been inconsequential in some of their other wins. But they've been a very Jekyll and Hyde team since DAC has come back where they'll put up 40 points, but their defense has not been playing as well. Or their defense will play well in a week. And then their offense goes missing. It's just they haven't, they'll put it together for a game,

but they haven't done it consistently down the stretch here. to where I feel confident in that to where I feel like they I, where I can stand on it, stand on it and say like, yeah, they should. They should and will beat Tampa Bay. Yeah,

I agree. They're another one of these teams where they, they had that stretch where they were running the ball at like an incredible clip with Pollard and Elliott when Elliott came back. Yep. Look at the teams they played, though. Bottom barrel run defenses. Right.

So it's not. I'm not completely discrediting that. I think their run game is pretty good. But like I said, it's easy to look like you have an elite skill when you're doing it against teams that aren't great in that one area. So when Dak has had to run the show on his own

and make plays, he's not impressed me really this year that much. I think I said to you and Chris the other day, his arm looks completely cooked to me. I don't know why or how that happened. but he's really lacking some zip on the ball. He's not driving very well. He's underthrowing some deep balls.

Anytime he's got to throw something like beyond eight yards and outside the numbers, I get nervous. He's just lollippping it out there. I don't know. So I don't know what's going on with that, but I'm not really willing to count on him at this moment to make the plays necessary to win that.

game. Yeah. If it comes down to just him. Now, their defense is phenomenal. They do have the good run game. They might not have to put it all on deck. Right. But that said, Tampa Bay, I don't want to say they're peaking, but they started, they

played well in the game they had to play absolutely well. Yeah. Yeah. And Evans had his breakout game and Brady. Brady's honestly played pretty dang good all year despite the crazy circumstances. Right. Bad offensive line, no run game. He's had to carry, basically he's had to carry that team to every single accomplishment they've made this year.

Yeah. So, I mean, receivers dropping balls or, you know, missing rounds, just. Or missing games. Yeah. Yeah. Injuries through the midway, or, you know, in the middle of the season. But again, another team that is pretty much has their full complement of weapons on offense now. Yep.

And they're starting to look like. They're healthy. And defense as well. Like, you saw it against Carolina that Tampa Bay run defense is something that we've, we've touted. And it has been like, it's been elite, uh, run defense for the last three years, I would say three to four. Yep. And they were having. So it's a chapter, yeah.

Yeah, exactly. And they were having stretches there this year where it looked to be kind of falling to the wayside. but they seem to have picked it kind of back. They seem to have kind of picked it back up here in the second or the third third of the season. The final third of the season, they've kind of seemingly figured that out a little bit. And we all know that Dallas, Dallas predicates themselves on starting and finishing the game by moving the ball on the ground. Yep. And unlike some of the other teams we've mentioned, too, they have done it against good opponents.

Well, Carolina, for example, like they're a run first team and they're very good at it. And they have absolutely torched multiple teams on the ground this year. In Tampa Bay, basically, in the game to win the division, they basically shut down that run game completely. So that's impressive. They've been a top 11 units. since week 13. That's good. Giving up about 4.2 yards of carry.

They're stuffing. Do you have week 18 in that sample? I do. So I can take that out. So take it out because they didn't play those starters past like the first drive. That's true. Which then if you, you know, take week 18 out and they're the number nine run defense. Yeah.

Yeah, they showed up on the Bengals too. Giving up just under four yards of carry. And the rest of the numbers. and the rest of their numbers look really good too with like 51 52% of their run or of defending against runs have been contact the running the runner has started contact at the line of scrimmage so like they're you know they're stuffing and making teams work for it and if they can hold Dallas that opens that opens them up to cause some havoc for that Dallas offense because if they can't run the ball, they start forcing things, and Dax starts forcing things. Yep.

And if Evans is fully healthy, man, he can cook those Dallas corners, especially because they like to play a little aggressive, little physical. He hits that nice release. He's gone. He's deceptively fast. And then Godwin's just a perfect compliment to Evans.

And you're actually starting to see some functionality out of Julio, too. They've been hitting some end-around-type plays to Julio. They've been getting him involved. and downfield a little bit. So that's a big deal. And then Gage has kind of come on to as a good fourth option. Obviously, K. Doughton's had moments where he's really played well as a rookie tight end.

So I feel good for Tampa in a lot of ways in this game. But let's enough talking. Let's pick them, Steve. Let's do it. Let's pick them up. Let's start. Let's go right from the top and go through the weekend. So Seattle, San Francisco, who you got?

Seattle, San Francisco. on on sports books are around a nine and a half point i'm going san francisco i just don't see a way that seattle can just can keep up with them defensively i think san francisco is going to kind of be able to have their way and they'll eventually just yeah break them down so i'm going i'm going i'm going san francisco in that one yeah i'm going i'm going san francisco too i don't i don't think this will be a contest or much of a contest. Yeah. For everything we said, I think it's pretty clear.

San Francisco has the big advantage and they're at home. So, uh, Chargers Jacksonville. This is obviously one of the harder games to choose this weekend. I, this is. I think I'm going to go with the Jaguars. Woo! I'm going to go with the Jaguars.

I mean, I think Doug Peterson has been a head coach in this position before. And I think Trevor Lawrence is playing well. And the Jacksonville defense, like I said, they just seem to be playing. They're thinking less. And they're just letting their athleticism take over. And it's benefited them in the second half of the season to where you're seeing guys just take straight lines at the ball. And I think that they can take advantage of a shoddy chargers offensive. line and cause a little bit of havoc for Herbert.

So I'm going to go with the Jaguars. I'm going to go Chargers. I think Chargers match up well. I think they have more offensive firepower. Plus the return of Bosa means more pressure on Lawrence. And Lawrence has looked at times like a fish out of water when he's been under pressure this year because he's so young is presumably why. I just don't think Trevor's ready for this moment yet.

So I'm taking the chargers. I think top to bottom they have a much better team. And it will eventually show itself at some point in this game. So cool, we differ on that one. Yeah. It's good. I think most of the other ones will be somewhere on. I've been thinking about that one all week.

And I still hadn't decided on it up until that point. But I made a decision. I'm standing on the Jaguars. I like Lawrence. I like that defense. Nice. the dolphins at the bills I don't even think we need to talk about this

you pick Buffalo yeah Buffalo and hopefully I hope hopefully Miami can stay in it until half time right but for Buffalo this is a get out and then get your starters out and coast this thing home and get to next week

kind of game in my opinion agreed the East Rutherford Giants in Minnesota I am going with I'm going with Minnesota. Ooh, okay. I'm continuing to ride with Minnesota. I think that.

Destiny season. They are your team, them and Jacksonville. Those are your teams. Yeah, I feel like I have. You're playing your flag. I have to do them justice and I can't just, you know,

at the most crucial time, jump off after touting them all year. Okay. Even though Minnesota absolutely deserves it, I'm not going to do it. I think that Kevin O'Connell, is I think he understands and knows that Justin Jefferson needs to get the ball. I think that Kirk Cousins is going to throw the ball 40 plus times.

And I think that they're just going to try and win the game that way. And I think that I think Justin Jefferson takes advantage of a good overall unit, but not a unit that has the athleticism to just completely shut him down. I think that Jefferson has a big day. Cousins has a big day by proxy. and Minnesota ends up winning another close game against New York. Okay. Listen, Minnesota's been playing with the black magic all year.

You know what happens when you play the black magic, right? It runs out at some point. No, you completely succumb to the dark side of the force. And your wife dies, Anakin Padme reference. You can't save her. Your kids get taken from you. and you and eventually you know Darth Sidious comes calling

and you have to serve him and so this is a Kirk Cousins forward interception game is what this is it's even on a 1 o'clock game I guess it is it's not 1 o'clock it's 4.30 Steve it's 430 and it's prime time because all playoff games are primetime

that's the battle of it is is you know yeah right is is this a prime time game it's a middle of the afternoon but I guess it is 4.30 and it gets dark early in Minnesota. Isn't it indoors anyways? Yeah, but it still gets dark. Outside.

I feel like it's the ambiance of the night that some that like scares Kirk Cousins. We should we should check sunset that for that day. It's probably like 449 or something. But yes, I like the Giants. I think they're a very well coached team and they just match up well to me. That's all. I don't think the Giants are necessarily better than the Vikings. I think they match up well.

They are playing, I would say, slightly better at the moment. I don't know. Yeah, I'm comfortable with the Giants, though. All right. Cool, that's another one we differ on. So this should be fun. We'll have plenty of stuff to talk about next week. Yes.

Baltimore at Cincinnati Division rival game. I pretty much know how you feel about this. Yeah, another one that, uh, let's see. Baltimore can get to the second half and still be competitive. I don't know. Joe Burrow is playing so well and Cincinnati's playing really well. Yeah. It's too bad.

Right now it feels like Baltimore is just trying to put off the bad things coming as best as they can. they're like they're distracting themselves with the playoffs and trying not to think about about like having to deal with the Lamar situation in the offseason and things like that it's just like trying to distract yourself in every way, shape, or form. But yeah, Cincinnati runs away with this. Baltimore is just actually able to do anything on offense. That's the issue. Cincinnati's defense is playing really well and Baltimore's potentially down to a third string quarterback. I think it would be more interesting to talk about if Joe Burrow gets pulled out of the game at some point because they're ahead by so much. Yeah.

Yeah, I agree. I think that's more likely than Baltimore winning. Yeah. Anyway, so I'm taking the Bengals, which leaves us with the Monday night football playoff game, which I love it. I hope they do this every year because this is tremendous. They should do this every week also. I imagine they're going to do it every year. Dallas at Tampa Bay.

And I know you liked the Chargers and Jacksville as your most exciting game of the week. This is probably my game of the week. And I do think the NFL agrees. Hence Monday night football. Tom Brady, potentially his last game ever, Steve. But for me, I'm going to go first this time because you went first with the other five. For me, this will not be Tom Brady's last football game in the NFL. And not because I think he's coming back next year, but because I think he is going to beat the Dallas Cowboys on Monday night football.

and yeah, I'm taking Tampa Bay. I'm taking Tom in Tampa Bay. I've been reluctant to bury Tom all season. I'm sticking with him. You have been. Tom and Mike Evans, you got this. Let's get after it. Go get it.

The time is now, one way out. Yeah. This one is, I hate this game. I hate trying to choose this game. it's another like it's another one where I've grappled like grappled with it all week on what I think and who I think it'll pull out who I think will pull out of this game victorious I I've been consistent I'm gonna go Dallas wow all right I thought you might go Dallas I almost I almost went Tampa Bay and I it's all if Dallas averages more than four yards to carry I think they win and I think that Tony Pollard will have a good game and that'll propel them. But I was really leaning Tampa Bay for there for a second because of their run defense, but I think that I think the Cowboys are going to come in and I think they'll be able to grapple or like grapple with them and take it to them a little bit.

I like I like the matchup of their offensive line against Tampa Bay's defensive line. Did you say that backwards? Dallas is offensive line against Tampa's defensive line. So you probably think Dallas is just better in the trenches in general then. I think that it'll win out. I like, I think that I'm picking Zach Martin over Avivaea. I'm picking Tom Brady over Dak Prescott.

That's fair. Let's go. No, this is cool though, Steve, because we're split on three games, which means that however this week shakes out, someone's going to be right and someone's going to be, someone's going to be more right and someone will be more wrong. And we can talk about that. Someone's going to be the big dog that eats and the other.

other person is going to be the puppy on the porch piss in their pants. Yeah. And you know me, if I come out ahead, I won't, I won't be, I won't be boisterous. I won't, I won't, I won't boast in my victory. I won't, I won't do any of those things. No, you won't. You for sure will be totally humble. I will be.

I will be totally humble. This is two teams that I've like stuck by all year. So this is, it would be, it's either going to be a moratorium and a, I'm going to deliver beautiful obituaries to these two teams that I've enjoyed watching all season, or they're going to play another week, and we're going to keep going. Yep. It's got to be a range of emotions for you because you also, we were both very hot on the Chargers to start the year. And then between the injuries and seeing the Joe Lombardi offense, we both quickly panicked on them.

Yep. But they've turned it around a little bit. So, but, you know, two of your teams, the charges in the Jaguars playing each other. Yeah, it'll be, like I said, it'll be a fun matchup. And this is, you know, kind of a forecast into the future. And really the AFC playoffs as a whole, the quarterback lineup there is awesome from almost top to bottom. If Lamar and Tua were playing, but they're not. But even then, those other five quarterbacks are great.

Yes, sir. All right. Let's get out of here, Steve. We did it. We previewed week one of the playoffs. it's going to be awesome and we will be back we're probably going down to one episode a week for the playoffs just so you guys know um we're going to get refreshed get the batteries charge and then we're going to be bringing you ridiculous NFL news free agency draft talk prospect talk every single week we'll go back

to two episodes once once this rolls over so yep we'll put our GM caps on and yep try and build these teams for the future in the off season as well as like you said draft stuff so be exciting. Yeah, it will be exciting. All right, cool. Thanks for listening, guys. Check us out at FantasyPoints.com and everything we're doing there, some good stuff. Make sure you're also listening to the other podcasts on the feed if you don't already,

because they are also tremendous. So cool. I am your host, Brett Whitefield. This is my co-host, Stephen Aroort, and we are out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe. rate and review on your favorite platform and come join the roster at fantasy points.com.