Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Take Talk Epsiode 9

Episode Date: September 30, 2022

Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield), Steven O'Rourke (@callmesteveo7), and Joe Marino talked about some impressive rookies thus far in 2022, and a look at the 2023 QB class. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome in to the Take Talk podcast. I am your host, Brett Whitefield, with my usual co-host, Stephen O'Rourke. And today we have another very special guest because it is Guest Friday. And this guest, all of our guests have been special so far because they've all been friends of mine. And this guest is no different.

His name is Joe Marino from the Draft Network. He is the co-founder of the Draft Network. He's also the host of Lockdown Bills. He is one of the draft dudes and my number one source for draft takes if I want them. Joe, welcome to the show. Thanks for having me, man. I think it's interesting that you frame that as if I want them. You know, like you're selective on what you want to hear, it sounds like.

Yes, this is true. I do, you know, because I do a lot of evaluations myself, like I try to get to, you know, 200 guys every year. The more info you take in, the more you pollute your own takes, kind of, you know. Yeah. So you're one of the guys I trust. If I need a draft take or if I need help with something, I go to you and we walk through it together, you know. Appreciate that. That is very true.

We like to walk through a lot of the galaxy brain stuff around mock draft time as well, trying to snort this thing out. And so we've had some wins and losses, to say the least, working through those processes. Absolutely. Sharing intel and stuff like that, it always can go really, really, really well or really, really poorly. Well, for those of you don't know, Joe is, he's one of the best dudes I know. I had the pleasure, the honor of standing with him in his wedding. I was an honorary groomsman.

One of the best times of my life, we used to live next to each other, literally, in Charlotte, North Carolina. We were both in the football space, didn't know that we lived next to each other, and somehow discovered this while conversing on Twitter. And then became very good friends shortly after. And then you moved. And then you moved. Then I moved back here to rainy, cold mission.

Michigan and here we are. It's rainy here in Charlotte this morning with, I don't know, what is this like the tropical storm aftermath or whatever of the hurricane? So we're getting, we're getting like five inches of rain today. So, you know, that's what's going on here. But otherwise, you know, typical Charlotte weather, that's probably better than where you're at. So you should move back.

I should move back. You're right. Well, awesome. Well, while we have you here, Joe. Typically what we do on the Friday pod is we kind of review last night's game and also get into the week's slate. But I really want to hone in on your expertise and talk draft quite a bit. I know the draft is a long way away, but we do have three week sample sizes now for the rookies, all these guys that you spent hundreds and hundreds of hours watching. So anything stand out

to you so far, just give me a couple guys that you think have like just completely blown you away already this season. Let's start on defense. Devin Lloyd linebacker, Jacksonville Jaguars. They traded back up to pick 27 and got him. And I've had a chance to go back and watch his game tape this week. And he's really playing well. Where I think I gain a lot of appreciation for what he's been able to do.

It's just that the game doesn't appear to be fast for him at all. And as a linebacker, a rookie linebacker, I think we've seen that. from a lot of players that come in, and it looks like they're, you know, on a, on a highway trying to cross the street, but not for Devin Lloyd, you know, I mean, the game's coming to him pretty naturally. He's really been awesome in coverage, a lot of plays on the ball, I think six past breakups and a couple of interceptions so far. And you've seen good man coverage reps. You've seen good zone coverage reps. And obviously his downhill ability is really, really standing out. So Devin Lloyd has been a big time guy for me so far on the defensive side of the football.

offensively, I think there's a couple of guys that I can mention, but I think the player I've been collectively most impressed with is Chris Alave, the wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints. I think he leads all rookies in receiving right now with 248 yards. And I'll be honest with you, if James was a little better, I think he'd have some more production to be quite honest with you because the separation has been there. He's winning down the field. and that's why you drafted Chris Alave in the first round is because you wanted that speedster, that guy that can change the math for you, right?

That's one of my new phrases that I've been dialing into with football is you want math changers on both sides of the football. And Chris Alave is a guy that can really dictate terms for how you want to play and open up spacing underneath. And he's winning at all levels of the field, but obviously I'm really excited about what he's doing down the field. He's playing tough. I know that that was one of the concerns with Chris Alave was what type of player can

he be through contact and, you know, when things are contested, well, I think he's been pretty solid in those areas. So I like what I see him from Chris Olav. I think he's, he's a guy that's going to have a lot of production in this league. And I'm encouraged with what he's shown early on. Yeah, Olive has been honestly phenomenal. It's actually been kind of crazy because I think we may have talked about this too, is he, I liked Olive, but I didn't see the top 10, top 15 hype. A lot of guys did with him. So for him to come to come. in the league and do what he's done. I've been very pleasantly surprised. I got a data point for you, too, Joe. Okay. Among all wide receivers who have run at least 50 routes out wide, Chris Olave ranks fourth in yards per

route run, which is pretty nuts with a mark of 2.89, very productive player. What's crazy about that is another rookie is right ahead of him at third and Drake London at 2.99. Both these guys have produced really well. Olave, you mentioned if James was a little better, he'd have more production. This is very true. Also true, he did drop a 60-yard who passed down the sideline. I don't want to include that in my soapbox of talking about how good he was. But yeah, it hasn't been perfect. All I'm saying, Joe, is that route was awesome.

The release package he has is really good. And he cooked that corner. So, man, I mean, it's pretty remarkable what he's done. He's even left a little on the field. It could be even better than it's been. about Devin Lloyd too. I mean, Steve and I just talked about this on the pod Wednesday. Like, I was actually cashing in receipts because I had him as my number eight player

in the draft class. You weren't wrong. Yeah. And the number one thing I liked about him, though, in college is just his versatility. Great, great run defender. Good in coverage, too, for a linebacker. But also, man, like, there was multiple games where they just decided to play him on the edge because their edge rushers were not getting it done

or one got hurt in the UCLA game. He looked phenomenal doing it. So both great calls. Steve. Yeah, and I mean, overall, the Jacksonville defense as a whole has kind of surprised and played way above what I think anybody thought they were going to be.

And just like going into it, I know that Brett and I had touched on, like, what in the world was Jacksonville's draft strategy on defense? because it seemed like they just went after and got like four linebackers. But Lloyd is just such a freak. And they all just have these, like I've seen other people reference it just like these goblins on defense between Allen and Trayvon Walker and Devin Lloyd.

And Devin Lloyd just fits in so well with like just that group of rangey, long, fast athletes on that front seven. Yeah, absolutely. You know, I wondered the same thing. with the linebackers because Chad Muma, another guy that they drafted pretty early on. I was telling myself, this is, this is Trent bulky wanting to replicate the stuff in San Francisco where he goes and gets the long-armed guy, you know, on the edge like you saw him do with so many, like I guess Eric Armstead, that was a pick, right, that he made into Forrest Buckner.

Right. I think about Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis on the second level. And it's like, all right, well, let's see if we could replicate some of that here with, with these other players. And so they've got a lot of young talent. I mean, really throughout that defense at all three levels. And I think what gets me excited when I watch the Jacksonville defense is just how they play together.

They're tough. They're competitive. Everybody goes and runs to the football. They're playing with an edge. And they're obviously gifted. And so I think they're doing a good job of maximizing young talent. And obviously it's a unit that as you look to the future, you see a lot of upward mobility because these guys are so young and they're only going to get better.

So Jacksonville's got a little something going there with what they have on defense. And then, of course, the influence of Doug Peterson on that offense has been really encouraging through three games as well. For sure. And what is your motto at the draft network, Joe? I believe it is draft good players. Draft good players, man. So even though I was critical of their draft this year, you know, taking two off the ball linebackers, I mean, sitting at 27, Devin Lloyd was by far the.

best player on the board, on my board at least. And then even at 70 where they picked MoMA, I had a top 50 grade on MoMA. So that's not bad value either, even though it is almost seems like it was just, hey, this is the best player on our board. We should probably take them, even though we already hit that well. So I don't, I don't hate it. Let's, do you have any, any rookies that you want to see more from that have not impressed you the way you thought you would or way you thought they would?

Well, I don't know that they haven't played like I thought they would, but I'm eager to see more from both of the top 10 tackles. Evan Neal with the Giants, Ikea Kuanu with Carolina. I think both have struggled a good bit, especially Evan Neal, where I just feel like at Alabama, he was a guy that relied so much on momentum as a player and not necessarily having a full understanding of his gravitational pull and being more consistent with his lower half to be square and sustain.

And you're seeing some of that show up. I mean, obviously the physical gifts are really exciting. And there's a lot to be intrigued about where he can develop. But, you know, he's, I think the, the concerns that you had about him early on have completely been on display with the Giants. And then Icky, you know, I hate for him that he had to earn it. Right. And I somewhat don't like that I said that, but this is a player that needed reps. And for Matt Ruhl to spend so much time this summer, acting like there was a competition at left tackle, instead of just allowing Icky to play, I think that hurt him a little bit because Icky's a player that thrived on just being big and strong and mulling dudes at NC State.

But technically he wasn't there. And I think taking away from some of his reps throughout training camp and preseason was not. beneficial. And I've seen growth. And I've went to camp a few days for Carolina and I've watched all their preseason games and all the regular season games at this point. And I've seen growth. And I've seen more patience and more consistency with how he's vertically setting, but still a guy that has a lot to prove. And it's week three. I mean, there's a whole lot of football heft in his career. But those are two guys that I don't think have hit the ground running like those teams needed them to, based on where they were drafted in the roles that they're asked to fill.

For sure. Let me ask you this, Joe, especially about a ken. So he's looked okay in the run game so far. I actually think he's had some really good moments. Past protection's been bad. But what this has done is it's really kind of given the naysayers ammo. Like, see, I told you he was a guard, not a tackle. What do you say to those people? I would want to know why you think that, right? So when you're going to move a guy from tackle the guard, there's a reason for that. And so usually it's, well, they don't have the length or they don't have the foot speed to be able to survive on an island. I don't have those concerns with Ikey. So I'm not just going to diminish his value by moving him inside. He's he's got to play through it, right? He's a grinder. He's got

great work ethic. I've met him. I know Ike. Like, I know he's going to put in the time to develop his technique. And so I have no reservations about allowing him to kind of fail forward at tackle. I don't know that it gets better on the inside. I mean, everything has. happens quicker and he's a guy that like almost can be a little bit too frenetic at times and really relying on his ability to just create displacement and win with power. And I don't know that that's improved on the inside. So I don't know. Like if I had foot speed issues and length issues, then all right, we can have the conversation. I don't have those things with Icky. And so therefore I don't have any urgency to try to mess with putting him at a

different position. Love it. Love it. So. Evan Neal in the Giants, they've now invested a couple of high picks in tackle. And Andrew Thomas started his career pretty poorly. And now he's playing very well. He's developed nicely. So, yeah, I mean, that kind of, it makes me want to be more patient with Neil than I probably would have been previously, you know. What was your evaluation on these tackles coming out? Like, where did you see them slotting in?

How did you kind of rank them? I know there was more than just these two as well, but give us your breakdown on that. Well, I thought they were both top 10 caliber players. And that really stems from an acknowledgement of them having issues, but also like, hey, there's a package here, right? That's what I'm interested in when I'm evaluating players. Like, what do they bring to the table? Right.

And these guys check boxes playing at a big time school, having really good college tape, length, size, power, movement skills. there's not a whole lot of disqualifiers there. And so, all right, yeah, you get comfortable with the risk assessment of placing them as a high player on your board, while also simultaneously acknowledging, all right, with Andrew Thomas, like, okay, what's his foot speed like? Can he any vertical set? Is he a fit for every scheme? Or is he just going to be a muller in the run game that has limitations in pass pro?

I think maybe you could apply some of that to Evan Neal, where I would say Andrew Thomas came into the league with better technique than Evan Neal. And so it's just an acknowledgement of what players are, what they can become and understanding that they're not finished products right away. And I think, I think like maybe more so than ever lately in the NFL, growth has been a real thing. Like I think maybe like five, six years ago, there was some hesitation to believe that guys can improve and like, okay, kind of what they are is what you're going to get. But I feel like there's been so much of the other side of that happening lately where,

it's allowed us to take a step back and say, okay, let's have some patience here. Let's trust that there is a plan to develop these players. And I think we've seen more and more of that. Now, I think teams get in their own way a lot of times with how there's so much lack of continuity year over year with coaching staffs and front offices. And I think that hurts players and their opportunities to settle in and develop because we see it every year where new regimes come in and they didn't pick these players and they don't want them, right?

and they flip over these rosters within two, three years. And that's bad for the players. But as you see, as you see guys go into programs that are established, that are committed, that do have a plan, you're seeing more growth. And I like that it's year one for Shane, Joe Shane and Brian Daibel with the Giants, because I do believe that they'll have a long enough opportunity here to get the most out of Evan Neal, even if he's not performing well right now. And then obviously Andrew Thomas, the growth really started last year.

and it feels like he's taking another step this year, and you feel good about what he's telling us that he is in this league. So I think there are going to be okay, but we just have to acknowledge that, you know, players develop. And right now, Evan Neal especially, is far from a finished product. Yeah, for sure. And offensive linemen specifically, like, it does take time sometimes. And I know one of the things you and I have talked a lot about, you know,

privately, of course, is just I kind of had to take a few years ago. I was like, Joe, I don't think players develop. develop as much as the general public thinks they do. I think a lot of times what you see is what you get, but I think you're right. That is kind of changing a little bit. The development has got a lot better, especially with offensive linemen. I mean, Thomas's turnaround alone has been remarkable to me because I didn't think

he'd be a very good pro, and then I looked like I was very correct early on, and then now he's playing awesome. I'd be remiss, though, if I didn't mention that I think some of the narrative on Neil being terrible to start is the fact that he had to go against Micah Parsons on Monday night football and just got... He got absolutely nuked. You remove those snaps.

It's not as bad as people are making it sound. He's been okay. I think his week two, he looked pretty good in past pro. I didn't really get beat a whole lot. I think I may have charted him for just a handful of pressures. That's the Carolina game. Yeah, nothing too crazy. So, well, sweet man.

Let's pivot a little bit here. I'd like to talk about guys coming up, the 20-23 draft class, or at least what we think it's going to be at we don't really know who's declaring and who's not yet. But guys you've watched and I don't know, we are a fantasy company technically, Joe. So if you can give us a couple quarterbacks, receivers, running backs, whatever you want to throw out there, I'd love to hear your takes on this upcoming class. That's a, that's a, you're giving me a big strike zone here, Brett.

I know. I know. At quarterback, I mean, I think everybody's talking about Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud and I'd like Stroud more than I do young. I recognize what Bryce Young is at the college level, but I think it's fair to have some concerns about kind of projecting him forward, very small player, narrow build, thin bones, not a lot of height there. And so you kind of take that with a pretty modest arm talent type player. You can appreciate the escapability in college and some of the off-script plays and some of the accuracy that he does show. But, you know, I think, I think for as much as we love to talk about Drew Breeze and Russell Wilson, there's limitations there because of their height, like, especially with Russ.

And I think Denver's learning that right now and Seattle kind of knew that there was limitations there. And I think about Kyler Murray and like for as dynamic as he is, there's limitations. And Bryce doesn't have the arm talent or the movement skills that Kyler does. Maybe he has a better makeup and intangibles about him that would inspire me to buy in a little bit more. But I don't look at Bryce Young as this surefire top five quarterback that's going to be able to elevate an NFL franchise right now. I think there's a path for him. But I think there comes with an awareness of what he is and what he isn't.

I mean, this is a guy that has to play on his tip, tippy toes and take seven step drops to be able to see. Well, that's a problem, right? That's going to limit your offense. How do you want to navigate that? Do you want to sign up for that? I wouldn't want to, Brett and Steve. Like maybe some people would.

I wouldn't want to. CJ Stroud, I think, has played the best this year. Some mechanical stuff there, toesy in the pocket. Like what he is. I think he's the one that I feel the best about being a solid starter. But the one that I really get excited about is Will Levis from Kentucky. And I know he is not perfect, right? Like he doesn't color inside the lines. It's not perfect all the time. The decisions aren't always great. The accuracy is not always there.

But this dude is an action figure that runs like George Kittle with the ball in his hands. And he has all the armed talent you could ever want from a quarterback. And so when I think about the package, right, I get excited about Will Levis as we see Josh Allen and Justin Herbert and those types of talents have success at the NFL level. I get drawn towards a guy like Will Levis. even if it ain't always perfect because I feel like there's such an intriguing path there for him to develop and be able to play more consistently with better structure around him. I mean, I don't think that he's had a full complement of weapons either year at Kentucky and obviously a new offense coordinator this year. I don't know, man. As a bet on trades guy, I get excited about Will Levis in this quarterback room.

So full disclosure, I 100% agree with you. But, I mean, it's easy for you to say because you're a Bills guy, you know. Josh Allen is the template for Will Levis and what needs to happen from Will Levis to go from good prospect. Let me stop you right there, Brett. Let me see if you would agree with this statement. Okay.

Will Levis is further ahead entering the NFL than Josh Allen is. Oh, 100%. I did not like Josh Allen the prospect. Not at all. And you shouldn't have. I think Josh Allen comes with an acknowledgement that, hey, unreal physical gifts,

like some of the best physical gifts ever to enter the league. But my God, can you overcome this level of issues with decision-making and accuracy? see most people can't. And that's why I think it's foolish to really count on anybody becoming the next Josh Allen. And we see this urgency from everybody out there to compare the stats. Well, look at Josh Allen's first two years compared to Drew Locke's. Look at Josh Allen's first two years compared to what Zach Wilson or two,

whatever quarterback you want, Trey Lance. We see it with Jalen Hurts. Like it becomes this, well, Josh did it. So our bad young quarterback can also do it. Yeah, I don't know if that's a world I'd live. living if I were you because Josh is in so many ways an outlier. Now, that was a really weird side tangent there. But the point that I wanted to make is like, yeah,

I think that Josh Allen is the blueprint for Will Levis. I see a lot of Josh in Will, but obviously where I get a little bit more hope with Will being able to fall in line like Josh is because I think Will is further ahead than Josh ever was entering the league and by a good bit. Yeah, I agree with that. I love Will. I also like your Stroud over Bryce take because

Stroud is a guy, man, the throws he's capable of making from the pocket, just blow your mind. He's made so many throws. I'm just like, that is top tier NFL caliber throw. Bryce has to do more to get there. And he has this obnoxious tendency to just hold the ball forever. Joe, we've talked a lot about the Alabama guys having super slow trigger, whether it was Hertz or Mac Jones, even Tua. We talked about Kyler having the same issues. I see Bryce Young just fall in line with all those guys and just obnoxiously slow trigger.

I mean, his time to throw play to play is actually, it's horrendous. I mean, it's what's phenomenal, or phenomenal is probably not the right word, but what's really interesting about Bryce Young as it relates to me is our staff at the draft network is very, very split on Bryce, where we got some people that are ready to risk everything for Bryce Young. And then you have some of us that are like, yeah, I don't know. kind of where I'm at with this. And I think it just comes back to, as we have this debate, it feels like every week we have a Bryce Young debate in our staff meetings.

What it comes back to me every single time is, what do I need to see from Bryce? I need to see a style of play that I believe is repeatable in the NFL. What about his game is, what is sustainable, what's replicatable about what he does and why he wins in college that's going to make him a successful NFL quarterback? I have questions. I have questions.

about that. And like if you want to buy into, okay, he's a, he just always, everyone's doubted him his whole life going back to high school. He always finds a way. He does make these, these incredible plays that, that keep kind of reeling you back in. I keep going back to how is this replicatable in the NFL? And I, I continue to have questions about that. Yeah, for sure. And you should. Not to mention the fact that he's, he's played with just incredible receivers as well. I mean, that's, although this year, he hasn't really. Last question on QBs, Joe, Stroud. My big concern with him is that he kind of shrinks in the moment a little bit.

The biggest games of his career so far have been by far his worst. And that's a little bit of concern for me. Have you noticed the same pattern or what is your take on that? I've not connected those dots. And that might be just you doing a better job of me of acknowledging that one, putting on the tape where the games, I'm loading them up. I'm just looking to see opponents. I'm not thinking as much about, okay, this is for these implications, right?

I'm just trying to look at the skill set. So I probably should be more aware of that as I consider him moving forward. With Stroud, I guess there's, for me, it's just that he's so tozy in the pocket. And I feel like that takes away from even more consistency with his accuracy and ball placement and even at times taking away from some velocity where I want to see him get his cleats in the ground and make throws with more consistency. And I'd also kind of like to see him weaponize his legs more. And I love that you point out the throws that he does make from the pocket.

Of course, you just watch the tape. You'll see him. But also like, hey, I think you can, I think there's another layer to your game that you can unlock here by weaponizing your leg. So it's kind of a catch 22 because you always love guys to throw first. But man, it's like, I think there's some meat on the bone here, CJ. And you can be even more dynamic of a player. For sure.

Cool. great quarterback discussion. The NFL's in a weird place right now, Joe, where normally, you know, there's a few teams, at least a few teams that are 0 and 3, staring down the barrel of just an awful season. We only have one of them right now.

And that is the Raiders. Of all the teams. So, I mean, with that, it's kind of hard. So typically this time of years when we start doing the mock drafts, you start penciling in, hey, this quarterback is a great way to reboot this franchise. well, the Raiders, the 1-0-0-3 team just locked up their quarterback for the next four years with a massive contract.

So it's kind of really hard to do that this year. But have you thought at all about where these guys might fit, teams that might be in the market? I think about the Lions. I know they have golf and they're kind of rebuilding, but they do have two first-round picks. So even if they win a few more games than they should this year, they could potentially make a play for one. Any quarterback to team fits that you like, specifically maybe the Lions, because I think they're the the one team we know for sure that might be looking for one. What's hard about that is two things.

First of all, is you have blue chip talent at other positions. And so you kind of find yourself in this conversation. Well, let's say it is Houston. Let's say Houston has a number one pick in the draft. Are they ready for a quarterback? Is that roster ready? Is that team ready to make this type of an investment? I'm not saying that Davis Mills has played at a level that moves you off of a quarterback.

I'm certainly not saying that. But if you have a talent like Will Anderson there from Alabama and you're not quite sure if you're ready for a quarterback and giving them a real chance to succeed, can you fall into that? And I would apply that to another team like Atlanta, who they have Desmond Ritter. I don't know how married they are to him. They shouldn't, right?

He's a third round pick. I don't think that screams. That's your franchise guy. But maybe there's a chance to see what you have in him there. But if you're picking high in the draft, is Arthur Smith back. And if he is, can you pass over a Jalen Carter over a quarterback? I don't know. I feel like there's a lot of that.

And as we consider the teams that could be picking quarterbacks, like let's introduce Carolina to the conversation. Is Matt Rule around? So it kind of gets even more challenging as you start to think, okay, the teams that I think will be in this quarterback conversation, who's their coach, right? What's their system going to be? And I feel like with these top guys,

that matters a lot because I don't know that any one of them is a universal type player, if that makes sense. So it's a challenging conversation. We know the needs going to be there. We just entered a season where Gino Smith and Baker Mayfield and Marcus Marriota and James Winston are day one NFL starters by choice. Right?

Like, you know what I mean? Like that's a world that we live in right now. So the need's going to be there. It's just a matter of what coaches are in place, teams, how teams view themselves. I mean, you never, you never know when Atlanta's picking four. There's other quarterbacks that are worth that pick and they pick Kyle Pitts. You never know how they're going to view themselves, right?

Like the Sequan Barkley at two, they didn't, they didn't pick Josh Allen or Sam Darnold or what, you know, Lamar Jackson. They pick Sequin because they viewed themselves differently. So the dynamics are really, really hard, although I can tell you this, we have, we have first round quarterbacks. We have first round need at quarterback. how it sorts out right now is hard to tell. Phenomenal stuff, Joe. So listen to the fans out there, I promise, Joe, we'd be in and out in under 30, and we're coming up on 30 minutes.

So we're going to cut it here. This is phenomenal. Joe, we should do this again sometimes. Well, you know, I mean, I'm always here for you, dude. Yeah. We do this every Friday. We have a guest on the pod and we talk about other things than just the weekly schedule, you know?

So, yeah, awesome. And so thank you so much for doing this for everyone. out there, Joe, where can they find you? Yeah, I appreciate that. On Twitter at the Joe Marino, all the scouting reports and stuff is at the draft network and two daily pods, draft dudes and locked on bills. So appreciate the opportunity to come on and share that

and obviously have a good conversation with you guys. Thank you, Joe. Thank you, Joe. Appreciate it, guys. Farewell to Joe. Man, Steve, what a beast. He's so good at what he does. He's so good at what he does. It's a pleasure.

Man, like, I was just sitting here listening to him go and I was mesmerized and just was actually forgetting what I wanted to ask him because the dude was just shredding it. I know, like, all of a sudden, I started thinking of like a hundred questions I wanted to ask. And I'm like, well, we don't have time for this. So we can't go down that rabbit hole. Because like I loved what he was saying about the job about Josh Allen. Yeah. that's like that's like a big thing that I've noticed and that like I like roll my eyes at every time is this this comparison to the early years of Josh Allen for every quarterback to like justify where they're at.

Yeah, every toolsy quarterback. I acknowledging the fact that Josh Allen's development is one of like the most impressive jobs of developing a quarterback we've ever seen in the NFL. Yep. And so like, just people using that to be like, no, look, like, he's good. He's on the Josh Allen track. It's like, no, that's not good. Because sorry that you, I'm sorry, because your quarterback isn't 6-6 runs like a deer

and has the, has like the escapeability of like a small guy in a box. Like, yep, it's just not repeatable for your quarterback. I'm sorry. Yeah, pretty. it's funny because like everyone knows you shouldn't chase the outlier right except for the NFL right or or most draft scouts not named Joe so it's like it's like hey we're we're gonna fully embrace chasing the outlier here even though we know there's a good chance it doesn't work I mean I get I get it though because it's like it's so easy to look at the guy and just be like like

you know with their chiseled from yeah you know marble And just be like, if we can just take him and mold him into what we want, when in reality, it's like a lot of the times these like, it's hard for, it's like hard for those tools you guys to develop because in college it's so much more about winning the game as it is than it is, you know, as much developing to get you to the program. Oh, that's so true. That doesn't get said enough, by the way. Right.

And so, you know, a lot of these guys, they create their own habits. and a lot of the times, like, those habits are, they're good because they can beat college level guys. Yep. But they don't translate because, you know, sure, when you play, like, you know, if you play in the SEC, in the SEC or like Big Ten, you know, you play against those defenses. You're generally, you're, you know, you're matching up against a defense that has like two, maybe three NFL guys. and then the rest are just like college guys. And you can escape those guys that are just college guys, but those don't exist in the NFL.

Right, right. Well, and furthermore, coaches aren't even, like they're not coaching their guys to prepare them for the NFL. No. More often than that, I'm sure there are some coaches that have that in their mind because they realize NFL success could equate to recruiting success. But for the most part, the preparation and the development is more on

how can we beat Alabama on Saturday? How can we beat Georgia on Saturday? Right, right. And yeah, it just slows stuff down to Joe's earlier point, too. That's why development in the NFL is so needed in patience is really what's needed. And it's hard when there's so much turnover in the front offices and in the coaching staffs. It's really hard for organizations to be patient with guys. Yes, absolutely.

Cool. We'll tie a bow on that segment. Again, if you don't know what the draft network is or, who Joe is. Make sure you check out their stuff. It is phenomenal. It is pretty much my only source for draft info. I know their website, draftnetwork.com, just got a new facelift.

So there's some cool tools and stuff on there. Anyways, check that out. Stephen, moving on, before we get into last night's game and then the week three slate, which we'll touch on briefly. Yeah, or week four slate. Wow. Yeah, week four. I wanted to play a game with you.

All right. It's a cool game. And I think this game is a cool way to show off some of our data points. But man, I just was going through some of our stuff and found some really, really interesting things. And so what I'm going to do is I'm going to rattle off a few data points. I don't want to have you guessed who the player is. Ooh, all right. I like this.

And I know you have access to all the same numbers I do. So hopefully you haven't looked at it. I will. As in depthfully as me. I have looked at them in depth, but it's one of those where we have so much information that what I retained from all our great stats is not necessarily what you retained from it. Yeah, sure, for sure. And then if you can't get it after the data points,

I have selected a few fun facts about the guy to help you get there. All right. All right. So, all right, let's start with this one. This player is averaging 2.34, you. yards per route run, which is ranked 16th out of 95 players that have run at least 70 routes. Okay. That's pretty nuts.

It's a good stat, especially when you find out who the player is. Among the 53 players that have run at least 35 routes from the slot, this player ranks first in the NFL in yards per route run with a mark of three yards per route run from the slot. So he's very productive in general, but he's really productive in the slot. If you expand the criteria to just 25 routes run from the slot, so that's casting a pretty large net. Only Tyree Kill ranks ahead of him in yards per route run. Any idea who the player is? Oh, is it, I don't know why I'm thinking Jacobi Myers. It is not Jacobi Myers.

That actually is a pretty good guess, though, but it's not Chikobie Myers. Is it Devontas Smith? It's not Devontas Smith. This will be unexpected. I'll actually say this. It's so unexpected that this player, fun fact number one, wasn't slated to be a starter for his team this year. Is it Noah Brown? It is Noah Brown.

It is Noah Brown. Good job. That's impressive. He's been playing well. He's been playing very well. And it seems like there's a lot of cliches about backup quarterbacks. Once I come into the game, they'll target the guys they throw to the most. So there's like.

It makes sense. Right. This cliche that Russian Brown have this chemistry because they're the guys getting the reps together in practice. So that's not typically how NFL practices work. But whatever, we could go with that cliche. I'm fine of it. And he looks, it's so funny because when you watch, when you watch Dallas, him and C.D. Lamb look similar.

They do. They do. CD Lam's just like a slightly bigger version of Noah Brown. Right. They look identical. Like their stances, like the way they run. It's like, it's so similar. It's, it's eerie at times. 88 and 85 dreads.

I think even the other day, one of them had an arm band on their left arm and one had one on their right arm. So it was like, I'm sure, I'm sure our PP team was was really loving that. It's like good luck trying to figure it out, guys. Yeah. But yeah, I love the way Dallas is using it. them too. And, you know, I prefer they put CD in the slot because I think that's where he's the best. But if you're going to get this level of production out of Noah Brown, I'm totally cool with a receiver core of Gallup once he's back, CD and Noah Brown. That seems functional.

That's the, yeah, that's it, is that if he can maintain and be this two, three receiver, yep. One, you take off the weight that's needed from Michael Gallup coming back. Because like I, that man is already under, I feel like so much pressure from mostly like just Dallas people of like once Gallup gets back, that's when this offense, you know, starts to open up more. Yep. Just because we have a set like a legit second receiving threat. But if Noah Brown can stay in and continue contributing and being a guy that can pull coverage away from CD Lamb and pull coverage away from Michael Gallup and, you know, give you good routes and. and consistent play, then, like, that change, that kind of changes the trajectory of the Dallas offense a little bit. I still have questions of the coaching and the play calling, things like that.

But as far as a supporting cast for a quarterback, Noah Brown, Noah Brown can change the look of that by how he's playing. For sure. I got another one. Actually, I have five total, so we have a few more to go. All right. So this player is a tight end. He's averaging a measly one yard per route run from in line, which ranks just 33rd among tight ends.

But he's been very productive from the slot. He's averaging 2.96 yards per route run from the slot, which ranks third among all players. And first among tight ends. he is the fifth highest target share at his position with a mark of 25.6%. Do you know who it is? Is it Goddard? It's not Goddard. It's not Goddard.

Goddard is one of the rare. Actually, he's, I think I went through this morning. He's the only tight end that plays a lot in the slot. He's considered a very athletic guy that gets targeted more from inline than the slot. He's only one. Yeah. But no, it's not Goddard. Higby.

It's not Higby. Fun fact. He was drafted with a round two selection last year. And in most draft classes, this guy would have probably been considered the best tight end. But unfortunately, he was in a class with Kyle Pitts, who really isn't a tight end either, but whatever. I digress. We won't hold that against him. Friermouth?

It is Friarmooth. Yeah, there we go. Yeah. That's right. Yeah, the 20-21 round two pick gave that one away. But yeah, it speaks to, so Trubisky's been pretty bad. That's an understatement. That's an understatement.

But some of his best throws have been to Pat. Yes. It seems like both Trubisky and Pickett have a really hard time pushing the ball downfield outside the numbers specifically. That's why you're seeing insanely low target rates for George Pickens. I think Chase Claypools ran like 104 routes, and while he's been pretty good, his target rate is relatively low considering how often he's on the field. But Fryermuth has, he's been the bright spot there.

I mean, even Deontes underperformed to an extent. He's getting a ton of targets, but he hasn't produced a ton. A lot of that is on Mitch. But firemuth is the lone bright spot there. Yeah, he had a couple. I think he had two targets in a row in that Cleveland game last Thursday. when they were driving toward the end of the game. He had a couple nice seam balls up the middle

where he kind of, he settled nicely into the zone. They had, you know, he had a linebacker lined up over him, safety over the top. And, you know, he worked past the linebacker well and then nestled into that zone and that, you know, a hole in the zone in between the two and made himself a big body, a big target, and made a couple plays.

Yeah, it's a fun thing with Firemanth is he's definitely really adept at beating zone. Yep. That's probably his strength. But he does have the juice and the athleticism to beat man as he develops. That will be a thing he can do more often, for sure. And he's just a big dude. He's just a big target, which is, you know, for a quarterback that's awesome to have. Yep.

Agreed. All right, I got another one. And this one is going to probably tick you off. Actually, I just gave it away probably. That's a fun fact. But he's currently averaging 0.91 yards per route run, which ranks 90th out of 95 receivers who have run a minimum of 95 routes. This is terrible production.

His target rate, Steve, is even worse. His target rate is just 12.4%, which ranks 91st out of 95 guys. Fun fact, number one, he's a lot. a former 1,400-yard 14-touchdown wide receiver. And he's producing this poorly. With the best quarterback he's ever played with. With the best quarterback he's ever played with. You already got it.

All right. Yeah, it's Alan Robinson. Alan freaking Robinson. Higby's the number two receiver in that offense right now. Yeah. Yes, he is. That's why, like, I thought that Friermuth, like, you were leaning toward Higby because his target share has been up there.

He's been the number two guy for Safford. And I... Yes. I don't know whether it's like, can Alan Robinson just not catch a break? Or is it just, I don't think he's bad. He's not. He's a good player. Think about Alan Robinson's career.

He's had the gauntlet of terrible quarterbacks. Oh, absolutely. All the way back to Penn State. Christian Hackeberg was his quarterback. Yeah. Very inaccurate guy. Then he goes to Jacksonville where he gets Blake Bortles for most of his career. Then he goes to Chicago where he gets Mitch Trubisky and I think maybe Chase Daniel for a game or two.

And Nick Foles. Andy Dullin. Andy Dallon. Andy Dallon was probably the best quarterback he played with until this year. And that's not saying much. So terrible ensemble of QBs. It's like it's akin to Brandon Lloyd back in the day. Do you remember Brandon Lloyd?

Oh, yeah. Brandon Lloyd had one of the most insane catch reels. Oh, yes. His, if we were charting him today with our, you know, created catch or wow catch metric we have, dude would, he'd be number one for sure. Off his charts. Yeah. But, bro, his plethora of quarterbacks were rivaled Alan Robinson.

So check this out. an old very old not great jeff garcia yep tim ratay do you even remember tim retay the name i like i know the name for sure but like remember remember i don't know if that's a fair that's a fair word for it because like right ken dorsey much better coordinator than he is a yeah a very very ancient mark brunel The tail end of Brunel's career in Washington. Yeah. He played with Lloyd. That's right.

I forgot about Brunel's late, late Washington's set. Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow. Kyle Oran. That was the array of QBs Brandon Lloyd got to play with. He put up 1,400 yards and 11 touchdowns with Kyle Orton. So Alan Robinson is the modern day Brandon Lloyd. Not that Brandon Lloyd was so long ago that he wasn't modern day, but you get the point. Right.

Pretty nuts. Brandon Lloyd was an interesting receiver because he wasn't that fast. He was just so good at creating space around him and creating space at the catch point. Body control and hands. But yeah, like, I don't know if it's, I don't know if it's going to happen this year. It doesn't look like it's going to happen this year for Alan Robinson, which means I was horrifically wrong about it. Which is why I said it would make you mad. Right.

So check this out. I got a cool stat for you. All right. I think it's possible that Matthew Stafford playing one year with Cooper Cup and Odell Beckham Jr. And Van Jefferson and some guys who are just very adept at separating. Some Robert Woods in there too early in the year before he got hurt. Yep. Made Matthew forget how to throw into a contested window.

Interesting. What is Alan Robertson's best trait? It's his ball skills, right? Right, 100%. His ability to go up and get it, that body control. similar things to Brandon Lloyd, actually, where he's going to make ridiculous circus catches in tight windows with coverage draped all over him, usually in the red zone. And so far this year, Matthew Stafford has attempted the fourth least amount of contested throws. Guys under him are Justin Fields who doesn't even throw the ball.

He's 23 completions in three weeks, so that doesn't even count. and then Baker Mayfield and Aaron Rogers. So point being, Stafford is not throwing, this used to be Stafford's MO, right? Like, he loved the Alan Robinson archetype. And it's like one year of playing with not having that. It's like he forgot how to do it. Maybe he realized it's easier doing it the other way. Like, you know, just the privilege of having guys that can separate on a route

of having to separate at the catch point. has just opened his eyes to, okay, it's so, I mean, not a ton. He still puts the ball in arms away a little bit more than you would like, but that's just the Stafford experience. But just like realizing how easier, how much easier it is to create, like, passing lanes and passing windows with guys that can separate compared to trying to put up a 50-50 ball, 60-40 ball for a guy like Alan Robinson. Yep.

It's actually kind of incredible. I mean, we're not saying also, guys, we're not saying Alan Robinson can't separate at all. It's just not his calling card. For a big guy, for a guy with his build, he separates reasonably well. And I've watched a tape. He is still separating at a decent level.

It's more just, they're just not on the same page. I mean, the Rams offense is out of sync in general right now. It all looks weird. It all looks weird. And it doesn't surprise me that that relationship is not really produced yet, but I think we could get there. It's just, it is a small sample size, but like Stafford understands what I think he wants Robinson to be 30.

Like he has four, four of his 12 targets are end zone targets. Yeah. So like the understanding is there. Yep. It's just the execution isn't. And we're getting to the point in the season where, you know, like quarterbacks are starting to kind of develop and key in on the guys that they're going to rely on. And Alan Robinson is kind of missing out on that opportunity right now.

And Higby, Higby has jumped him on that and been that number two guy, that reliable guy to go to if Cup is covered. Yeah, which is interesting because Stafford avoided tight ends a lot in Detroit. So Stafford's just changed, I think. He's still developing, which is crazy because he's in his 30s, and he's played in the league for, you know, more than, well over a decade at this point. Yeah, he's what, 13, 14 years in now? I think 12, but yeah. Still a lot.

Still a lot. All right, next one. So this player has run 84.7% of his routes on the outside. He has a really low, or I should say relatively low target rate for an outside receiver. of just 23%, especially because he is the offense's number one wide receiver. But despite that, he's still ranking third in yards per route run when outside, which basically means this dude is a big play machine. Who is he?

What did you say the target share was? 23%. Or target rate. He's targeted on 23% of the routes he runs. Who. I don't even have a guess right now. I will give you a hint. Yeah, toss me a hint.

He plays with one of the guys he's probably playing at like third best quarterback this year or top three quarterback, I mean. Is it Bateman? It is Bateman. Look at that. Boom. It's all it takes. It's a little tee up and then you got it.

It's like you might not be able to. to hit with your wedges, Steve, but you put the ball on the team, the driver comes out and you just crush it. That's actually been my golf game this year, stunningly enough. That's the opposite of 99% of casuals. I know it is, but I can get off the tea really well, but then after that, it's pissing in the wind. Right on.

Yeah, so Bateman, man, like, it's been fun to watch his big playability, especially yards after the catch. He's done a tremendous job, but obviously we know, and, you know. Andrews is the dude there. Darling. He's the dude. So he's going to get a majority of the tar. He is the wide receiver one, even though he's technically a tight end.

Which is fine because he's 100% worth it and like should be that guy, honestly. Yes. Very true. And it's funny because we talked about it the other day, but Andrews is just he is lighting it up this year. Oh, absolutely. I mean, he's up there. for like total air yards. His average up the target is at 10.9 yards.

Like, he's not just getting the ball. He's getting the ball for, like, big gains. Yep. Yeah, his target rate is, what, second in the entire NFL? And he's a tight end. Yeah. Yeah. And the next tight end is significantly lower than him.

I think 26 spots below him. But, I mean, probably. Yeah. It would probably be who. I don't even know who. would be Kelsey probably. No. I bet not. It is Kelsey, I think. But yeah, he's, I mean, Mark Gangers is just such a monster.

It's just, like, I just hope that they utilize Bateman more. Yes. He's such a weapon. Yeah, I'd like to see, you know, you can't expect him to hit those big players all the time, but maybe start manufacturing some touches for him. Well, yeah, that's the thing is he's such a, he's got such a good catch radius. that he's so easily usable across the middle on like digs and dig routes, overrouts, things like that where he can win in contestant, like, or tight spaces.

I should say not necessarily contestive catches, but like tight windows, tight spaces over the middle that like if they can utilize him more, that offense could explode even more than it already has, at least in the passing game. Yeah, I know we did the franchise focus series this summer. Right. And one of the things that stuck out to me when I was going through some of the numbers is they basically, by the end of last year, they were using Bateman the same exact way they were using Hollywood Brown. Like from the types of routes he was running and being targeted on, they were identical. Identical patterns.

And the tape, I haven't looked at the numbers that confirm 100%, but the. tape suggests the same thing so far this year. But the thing that's frustrating about that is Bateman is such a more well-rounded, he's a way more well-rounded receiver than Hollywood Brown is. Absolutely. And they can definitely get more out of him and getting him more touches and they can do a lot more with him. But anyways, it's just, it's, I don't understand what the Greg or what the Roman offense wants

from outside receivers. I don't know what they want them to be because like I've always I think I've said it before that like I've complained about Baltimore's receiving talent as far as like receivers they've always had they've always it feels like they've always had like a good tight end in there but the receivers have always you know kind of left you wanting for more and with Lamar Jackson and this offense like I just don't know what. what their coaches want from their outside receivers or even what archetype they're looking for or like anything like that because it just doesn't seem like they put them out a very sophisticated route tree and give them a lot of chances to win in space. It just feels like it's a lot of like underneath, like underneath and then just send them deep or, you know, easy slants, things like that. And it's like Bateman's a good route runner. Like I said, he's great at creating. creating space at the catch point.

He's got such a good catch radius and he can play way bigger than he is. Like give him more opportunities to make plays. Yeah, one of the things Ravens like to do is they like to do a lot of ISO type stuff. So they'll come out in like a one by three formation. Right. It used to be Hollywood on the one side, but now it's Bateman a lot of times. And he's basically, you know, if they can. give them a soft look, they'll maybe run like a little hitch or an out route. And it's just,

the chances for a big play there aren't, they're not really there. And you're not often going to throw that route either. But it's, that's how they're using them. And then a lot of times, too, that's, you know, some type of three verts on the three side. And then he's running a drag underneath it. And it's almost like a man, it's like a screen pass that's upfield a little bit is all. Right. Right. And then that's kind of, that's how they get him the ball in the short parts of the field and then everything else is deep. So it's like, it can be, I'm sure it's frustrating. I bet you if I had to guess Greg Roman sees limitations with what Lamar's doing. That's what I was going to ask. So he's kind of nerfing a little bit. But like his refusal to change

things, I think that's what's actually holding Lamar back, not Lamar. So. And like, if anything, this is the year to do it. Like Lamar is looking the best he's ever looked in the pocket. He's not bailing pockets. as much as he used to. Like, if there's ever a time to start, if Roman has it in his arsenal, if there ever a time to open up the route tree more and open up the playbook more, like this is the year to do it. Yep.

Because you're getting the best production and like the, like one of the best versions of your quarterback that we've ever seen as far as throwing the ball. Yep. All right, cool. We got one more and then we're going to move on. this player has run 89.2% of his routes went outside. And this is a hilarious stat, truly. He ranks dead last in yards per route run from the outside

with the mark of just 0.35. Is that not hilarious? He gets a third of a yard per route run. I've never seen such dread from a player before. That is terrible. It's so bad. You probably have no idea who this is, by the way. I'll give you a hint, though.

He's a former high draft pick from the University of Georgia. It's A.J. Green. Dang it. It is A.J. Green, but I was hoping you would guess Pickens, and then I could tell you. I was going to guess Pickens, and then you gave me that I was going to guess pickens. Well, Picking is from Georgia, too. I know. I was trying to set you up for a trick. It felt like more of a glaring one with A.J. Green.

Yeah. Yeah, that offense is just kind of a mess right now. Green has looked washed for a couple years. Yeah, like it looked. It definitely was there last year. Like, you started to see the wheels fall off a little bit. Yeah. He had moments where I was like, okay, maybe he can still play a little bit,

but no, it's not it. They really need Hopkins back, and then they can trot out some form of Hopkins, Brown, and then Dorch slash. whoever right which like you know it makes sense Julio Jones is I mean Julio Jones more so from a health standpoint but like Julio Jones is starting to see the end of his career coming AJ Green and him both came out in the same like we're same recruiting class came out of college at the same time yep AJ like what do you think AJ Green

has any chance at the Hall of Fame. I don't know. You're putting me on the spot, Steve. I know. Just real quick, like, if you, like... I got to quickly, I got to look up his stats now, because that's what matters in this world. I think he started his career with,

I think it was six straight thousand-yard seasons. Five. Five straight, yeah, five straight-thousand-yard seasons. When he was at his peak, he was a monster. I'm going to say no, no shot. Okay.

I leaned toward no, but just he had, the start of his career was very good. Yeah, well, he was an old rookie for one. So he's older than people think. He's almost 35, which is nuts. So he effectively, he's out of production heavy years, basically. Even if he hangs around for a few more years, he's probably not ever going to be a big time producer again.

I mean, shoot, he is in a clean. flips a thousand yards since 2017. It's been a minute because that was the year before he got hurt, I think. And then after that, it's been hurt every year since. So, yeah, he went over 1,000 in 2017, then played nine games a year after, and then missed the entire 2019 season. Yeah, that was where it started to fall off for him health-wise. Yep.

Makes sense. So, but no, not a Hall of Famer to me. So, well, anyways, let's move on. We have a Thursday night football game to talk about. Unfortunately, Steve, it's not under great circumstances. So I'll just say, you know, prayers to Tua and his family. It sounds like things are going better than maybe it looked on the field. You got released from the hospital and flew home with the team.

They flew him home already? They flew him home with the team. that seems highly dangerous. It's raising a lot of questions, but. Yeah. I'm not a doctor, so we're not going to speculate at all on what's going on with Tua or even about the decision to put them in yesterday's game. I don't want to do that, but there are football things we can talk about,

not centered around to us. So one of the things I, right off the top, I swear coaches listen to this podcast, Steve, because I've been harping on the Bengals to get Jemar Chase the ball further than five yards away from the line of scrimmage. Yep. And while he only had six targets yesterday, I can't, that's hard to live with because he needs more than six freaking targets. But granted, the dolphins do have a good secondary.

Maybe they just liked other matchups better, whatever. But those targets were valuable because his average up to target was over 18 last night. For the first time this season, they committed to, we're going to try to get Jamar chase the ball down field. And it was exciting. One of those from Tyler Boyd. Yeah, that was a great throw. That was a dart of a throw.

Like put it on a rope to him. Yeah. And it was like a cover two seam shot him or like a cover two whole shot too. Like it was a pretty impressive throw. But that also goes back to that Joe Burrow had time to throw yesterday. That was the most calm I had seen Joe Burrow in the pocket all this season. he like that offensive line held up well for like just in general but then even when the pocket started to break down Joe Burrow looked so calm in escaping the pocket and you know he ran it

a couple times but just like he looked comfortable yesterday he absolutely did and especially like Miami still gave him a fair number of zero love. were there the flooding line of scrimmage. They didn't blitz as much as I thought they would. No, they didn't. They didn't. I think was, like, I think that their game plan was that, you know, we can, like, their offensive line isn't good.

We can win with four, we can win with four guys. And Joe Burrell plays pretty well against the Blitz. Yep. And I think that that kind of all, that had to have altered their game plan a little bit. But, yeah, man, I just. really enjoyed it felt good watching joe burrow play the way he did last night just making smart throws navigating the pocket well keeping his eyes downfield like this is what the Cincinnati offense was supposed to be for this year and oh like hopefully this is a good sign for them

moving forward yeah go so Miami plays a ton of man-com coverage, as you know, a lot of zero blitzes for one. They also do a lot of, you know, cover one. They even run a little bit of one double sometimes. Not really any two-man. They're more single high if they're going to play man. But going into last night, Burrow, let me see. I have the, I have the data.

Joe Burrow was actually pretty efficient this season. As bad as he has struggled this year, his passerating against man coverage. so far going into last night, it was 115.9. He had four touchdowns and no interceptions against man. He was averaging 0.64 fantasy points per dropback for you fantasy guys. And that's despite the fact that he had an incredibly low A dot against man coverage of 5.8, which is ridiculous. Like I don't know how you can live with that.

Probably the pressure just causing him to get the ball out quickly. But so despite the, you know, Burrow having pretty much all of his. his success this year against man. He has not been great against zone. Miami still committed to playing man coverage and they were in man, well over 50% of the time, you know, occasionally mixed in some zone, but for the most part, they were really, really, really going man heavy. And we saw that, you know, that did not work out well for Miami in the end. A lot of big plays when they needed them from, you know, one from Chase. Higgins had a couple monster plays down the stretch there that were. You can't play man against those.

two guys and expect to win. Expect to win the most of the game. Boyd called a deep ball, Steve. Yeah. But he doesn't do that often. But yeah, if you're going to play man, Burrow is going to find his guys. And like that, like on the Jamar Chase go ball, the T. Higgins go ball, and that Tyler Boyd post route. Yeah. All three, they had at least a yard and a half of separation.

Yep. All three of those guys. Which is why it's surprising that Miami chose to play man because that's what these received, that's what this group can do against man is they can just wear you down. They're all such good route runners that like you may get the upper hand of the beginning of the game or at points in the game, but they're just, they're going to win. They're going to win reps. And with a quarterback like Joe Burrow,

having the time that he had last night, like he's, he's going to get them the ball. He's going to find them. I mean, they finally got that, the, their calling card last year. They hit it twice that like quick drop, one on one go ball. Yeah. Hit one to T. Higgins, one to Jemar Chase. Both of them got pretty ridiculous separation for a go ball. Didn't hesitate either.

No, not at all. I think, like, I think on both throws. Burrell had the ball out in 2.2 seconds. like it was just it looked more like what that Cincinnati offense looked like last year and like why they got and why they got to the Super Bowl. There's still the early down run thing that's never going away. And it seems like Joe Burrow kind of has to win despite Zach Taylor, not because of Zach Taylor, because their play calling is pretty unamemased.

imaginative right now. Yep. Yeah, on the flip side of the ball, too, we had, you know, two, he had the one bad interception, which we won't really get into, but he did have that ridiculous throw in the first quarter. It was split safety look. I don't remember off the thumb I had if it was if it was quarters or cover six, but it was something in that family. And he fit the ball into Mike Gassiki right over the nose right at the beginning of the game. Yes. Like that throw was ridiculous.

There were four guys. I mean, he had the lineback underneath. He had the corner outside. He had the safety over top. And I think he had, I think he had the corner that was, no, it wasn't a corner that was trailing. But then there was another guy on the inside. And there was like this perfect little diamond that Gassiki had settled him,

or found the hole. And yeah, it was just a perfect drop over the linebacker, but not. leading Gassiki too far to where he ran into the corner. That was an awesome throw. Yep. It was really, really good. Other than that, though, this game, Steve, just felt like I actually texted, I'm in a fantasy league and we have a group text thread.

It's like, it's a mix of like a bunch of industry guys that I know. Right. I think Chris is actually in it and John Costco and then some of my family members. like my brothers and my dad. So it's like a fun league because it's like, it's like a few pros plus like, I would say really good casual fantasy players. But we have this text read and it's usually, it's usually going pretty hard during games. And I texted the group and said, if you want teach tape on how to not call plays in an NFL football game, this is the game.

Yeah. It just felt weird. Zach Taylor, so despite Burrow and the receivers getting some things right finally in this game, Zach Taylor's just willingness to run into a brick wall 100 times a game is like find someone who loves you as much as he loves doing that doesn't phase him at all it doesn't do it's so funny it literally legitimately cracks me up like I can't oh god dude uh I mean even Miami's reliance on the run game too and it wasn't working I'm just like wow I get not abandoning the run you have a culture you you don't want to get too predictable but holy cow yeah whatever whatever i guess

but whatever whatever the amount of first down runs mixing had too it's just like oh it's first down it's just definitely a mixing run you just know it's gonna happen like you just pencil it in pencil them in for a two-yard gain yep there was a point in the game too i was uh i think it's like a second down play in mixing out a run rare second second down run for nine yards and stirred in one. And then Mixing like barely gets the first down. And it's first and 10. Mixing coming off back to back runs looks winded. And I'm like, well, this is 100% going to be a run because why wouldn't it be? The goal here is to punt as fast as possible. And Taylor's probably mad they just got a first down. So he's going to, of course, run on first down here.

And sure enough, it was a run. Mixing for two yards. You get this. Mixon has the third boast carries in the NFL right now with 58. He has a 163 yards for 2.8 yards per carry. He has just six first down runs. And his explosive play percentage, so runs of 15 yards or more is 1.7%. He has a 58.6% stuff rate. Oh my goodness.

And only 46% of his runs go three or more yards. 27% of his runs go for five or more. Compared to the other two guys at the top, Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor, their three or more yard rate is Chubb is at 64.5%. Jonathan Taylor is at 55%. Five or more yards is 40% for Chubb, 42% for Taylor. 2.8 yards per rush, and they've run him 58 times.

And he only has 96 yards after contact. like I don't understand what Jack Taylor's doing like I don't get it it's not where like the run game isn't working and I don't understand because they'd be like the perfect team for it too of like just employ like why are we not looking to employ the the like I know Joe Burrell's not Tom Brady, but like the Tom Brady in New England and even, even sometimes like the McVeigh offensive, like just use short, like just use short passing game as your run game because the run game's not working right now. Right.

And like you said, just they're wasting plays, just running into the back of the linemen. It's not like they're, because that's the thing, they're not running like very sophisticated run concepts either. Like it's, it's, it looks like it's just Joe, and running into the back of the line and just like hoping. No, it's so, it's so vanilla. It's, it's outside zone.

Yeah. It's outside zone, outside zone, outside zone, outside zone, outside zone. Very vanilla. I mean, yeah, they're 0.93 yards before contact per attempt. It's disgusting. And yet they continue to pound the ball into the back of their line. I know yards per carry is like a terrible metric, like especially long term. Right.

But man. the combo of Mostert, Edmonds, Mixin, and P. Rhine last night combined for 45 carries for under 2.7 yards per carry. So like the nation just watched that. That was like, this was supposed to be an offensive explosion and they just watched that. 45 carries just into a brick wall over and over. Mostert even had a, that's, yeah, that's what's crazy. that number is so bad despite the fact that most did have a 25-yard carry.

So you take that out of the mix and it was like one and two yards a pop. Right, he had a 25-yard and like a 10-yard. Yeah, right at the end there, yeah. Yeah. So there's like 35 of their, whatever, 60 yards or however much they all had, it probably wasn't a lot. Yeah, and that was the thing is it's just both of these,

both of these offenses, honestly, like, they like they don't really have to run the ball all that much well they shouldn't have to they shouldn't have to they should like they shouldn't do it in general because both like both teams have such good receiving talent and such a wide you know like a wide array of weapons in the receiving game that like just use short game quick game like yeah things like that I know that well i mean Miami does the RPO stuff. But, like, Joe Burroughs got a quick trigger. Like, just have him, just have him throw, like, work short game and let your best

athletes, your receiver, like, T. Higgins, Jamar Chase, Tyler Boyd, let them go to work in the middle. And Joe Mixon's a valuable player. Like, he's a good player, but running him into the back of your lineman 20 plus, 15 plus 20 plus times a game, you're just, like we said, we're just, just, just, wasting downs. Yep. What's interesting is a friend of mine who's, I would say he's a layman. He's not like, he doesn't work in our field or anything. He texted me. He's like, hey, man, listen to the pod. I love the dolphins discussion, but I think you're kind of overrating their

season so far. There are a couple of plays away from being one and two or even worse. And I was like, really. And he's like, yeah, like offensively, they just been really bad. And that shocked me, because I was on here after week two, waxing poetically about their game plan and comeback against Baltimore. So I thought this was like really interesting take and I do respect his opinion even though he doesn't work in the space and he played at a high level. So whatever, I decided I was going to go watch every Miami offensive snap of the season yesterday. So I go watch and I hate to say it, but he was right. Outside of like 10 plays this season, Steve, that offense has been really bad. And a lot of it is the play design. Like when they were mounting that comeback against Baltimore,

you know, we broke that down in depth about how they were using Waddle and Hill together, creating mismatches across the middle of the field, whether, you know, running lots of dagger concept or Yankee, they were making investments into that and then they hit a bunch of those plays. But think about this. If Baltimore doesn't bust two coverages right at the end of that game, everyone's opinion of the Miami offense is totally different. Right. And so it is concerning going forward. I know McDaniel comes from the tree where they can scheme anything up.

But you know what? Shanahan, as much credit as he gets as an offensive mastermind, he's not the best play caller in the world. In fact, I would say he's not a very good play caller at all. He's a really good play designer. He designs amazing plays. He just doesn't know when to call them or how to flow with a game. Right.

So I think we're seeing the same thing in Miami. And yeah, that's pretty much all I have on that game. but I didn't want to do something with looking ahead to the week four schedule. Yeah, Cincinnati's defense looks to be coming together a little bit more, but. Yeah, that's true. They looked, they looked, again, a lot more like the unit that they were expecting to get this year than they had been getting so far. So it'll be interesting. I mean, my Cincinnati's two and two, totally back in play.

Season's not dead. Yeah. Yep. All right. So looking ahead, there's a lot of games I don't even want to discuss. But I think it would be cool, especially since we're already coming up on like an hour and a half. Yep. Let's just go really briefly.

And I mean so briefly, let's just hit a thought about each game really quickly. I've already pulled some data points for games, utilizing some cool new metrics. that we're looking at. But yeah, we can just go, let's go like a thought each game. It doesn't have to be super in depth. But Minnesota, New Orleans, give me a thought.

New Orleans is just weird. James is like, I don't really know what their offense is trying to be. It seems like they're trying to. It seems like they're kind of trying to play off of what everybody wants. was three years ago. Everybody on their offense was three years ago as far as Camara Thomas and Winston.

And it's just, it's kind of a mess over there. But I think Minnesota wins pretty handily there. Yep. Okay, I'll take Cleveland, Atlanta. Cleveland, Atlanta, yuck. Yeah. I don't have much more than that.

I do want to see. So Jacoby Bressett. sort of playing out of his mind so far this year. Like for his standards anyways, he's playing out of his mind. Playing well, yeah. But Cleveland is probably going to be without Miles Garrett, which really aids Atlanta because they don't pass-protect well. And, you know, if you're going to give Mario to time,

that's when I'll start to hurt you a little bit. But their secondary is good. I think London and Pitts could be in for a slow day. So, Buffalo, Baltimore. You. This is probably the game of the week right here. Yes, absolutely. In my opinion.

So we'll give two thoughts about this game. All right. It's just like this is just going to be fun to see. Lamar faced probably, I mean, I know the Bill's defense has hurt a little bit, but still like the best defense that he's faced all year. And it'll be interesting to see how he holds up against his pass rush. I know we've been touting his, Lamar's ability to like hang in, stay in the pocket,

make a throw from the pocket. The Buffalo Bills have pressure, have been one of the best teams at pressuring the quarterback. And so it'll be interesting to see how Lamar Jackson handles that. You know, is he able to keep himself clean? Is he still making throws from the pocket? Is he bailing more as, you know, if pressure starts to bear down on him? I think this is a big game for Lamar as far as the trajectory for the rest of the season.

And just like his outlook. The Buffalo secondary is still pretty banged up. So Lamar should have an opportunity to take advantage of that. Something Miami wasn't able to do last week for whatever reason. But the way Baltimore is playing, I fully expect them to do that. And if Lamar needs to use his legs to make that happen, I'm okay with it. Yes. I know we want him to scramble less, deliver the ball from the pocket.

But this is one of those games where you've got a hurt secondary with a good pass rush. Let's use the legs. to create some time and let our weapons, Andrews and Bateman and DuVernay, get loose and capitalize. For Buffalo, Steve, just let's do more of the same. Miami's game plan last week was really fascinating because it was like 120 degrees on the field, really hot, and Miami just said, we're going to make Buffalo have to do 20 play drives. And then in crucial moments, we'll dial up a zero blitz and try to freak Josh Allen out. it didn't it didn't work until it did so they got torched they gave up like 400 passing yards

but on those some of those crucial downs i know they got the sack fumble they got an errant throw on a third and five they got a turnover and downs on the fourth down play they stopped them for a field goal that ended up getting missed so you know miami's defense maybe had four or five good plays the whole day but it was enough to get past buffalo i want buffalo to come out and just swing on the Ravens this week. Kyle Hamilton is playing like an insecure rookie. Take advantage of that. Try to create coverage busts in that secondary.

We know they like to throw it deep, so let's see some deep passes hit. And we know that Baltimore's defense can bust. Yes, exactly. One thing about that, one thing about that game or more really about Buffalo's defense is I will say it is impressive their ability to plug and play guys in that secondary so far.

Because I know, like, last week with all the injuries that they had, I feel like a lot of people were really nervous that Miami was just going to explode. But they still, you know, they held that Miami passing game pretty well. And so Buffalo, like, Buffalo is just one of those teams. And that's why they're, you know, why they're a championship contender outside of Josh Allen is that they have players that they can plug in for their superstar secondary guys. and have them perform at above a replacement level guy. And it helps when you're a zone-heavy scheme like them. Like they play more zone than just about anybody. Right.

When you are that zone heavy and your defense isn't reliant on having a shutdown quarter, well, they do have Trinidadis White. So they have both, which is funny. Right. But a lot of teams that run a ton of man, they have that stud man corner, whether it's a Stefan, Gilmore, or J.C. Jackson from the New England days. When those guys get hurt, the deep. defense has to change because the defense is centered around that guy performing.

Buffalo doesn't have to worry about that. So their system is a little more plug and play. I dig it. McDermott did that in Carolina too. They had next man up all the time that secondary play at a high level, despite having a revolving door at least one of the corner spots. All right, cool. Washington, Dallas.

Give me a thought. The Cooper Rush train keeps rolling. I like it. Um, no, I, this is just kind of a meh game too. Like, this is, this is the competition for really number two in that division. As much as, as much as the Giants are technically are probably technically in second place in that division. I still think the Giants probably falter the rest of like towards going forward this season. But we saw, we started to see the Carson Wentz that.

We thought we would see this year last week. Can he correct that? He was under pressure all the time last week, and that's not going to change with Dallas. And so I imagine that this Dallas pass rush is going to give Carson. He's going to be a hell of a day for him. He's not good at getting the ball out before pressure gets there. He's like, his MO is hanging out to the ball too long.

so I could, this could be a really long day for Carson Wentz and Micah Parsons could go off. I mean, I think Washington's giving up. I think they've been one of the worst past protecting offensive lines in the NFL so far this year. Yeah, I don't even really need to add anything because that is the script of the game. But if whatever Micah Parsons over under on Draft Kings is for Sacks, I'm taking the over. That's it. He is the storyline here, and I expect him to take. full advantage.

All right, Seattle, Detroit. I've got some interesting things about this one. I know it's a super mad game. Just stuff that struck me going through the data. Detroit plays man at an incredibly high rate. But Gino Smith has actually performed at a very high level against man coverage. He's averaging for you fantasy guys if you're looking for a streamer, which you probably should need.

If you need a streamer by week four, then your team's in trouble. But a streamer or even maybe a real. really cheap DFS option, or if you're playing showdown, Gino Smith is averaging 0.86 fantasy points per dropback against man coverage, which is insanely high. His completion percentage over-expected is 3.9%, which is nuts. And his passer rating against man is 138.5, which is third in the NFL. No, granted, his sample size is not huge.

He's not seen a ton of man coverage this year, but he will this week. And so far, this season, he has shredded it. his a dot too he's done this despite having a really high a dot of 12 yeah that is really high a dot against man coverage and he's he's performed at a high level on the other side of the game jared goff seattle doesn't run a ton of man but when they do they're really really bad at it so in golf has performed at a really high level against man as well he's uh let's see he's averaging point six four famous points per drop back which ranks 10th in the league And that's despite the fact, Steve, that his completion percentage over-expected when facing man is minus 16.5%.

Now, we know why that is. It's because him and Chark can't hook up on the deep ball. And they've thrown a lot of those against man. Chark has the number two average depth of target in the NFL for guys with over 75 routes run. Boom. Is that like 19 and a half yards average depth of target? Right. So golf's performed as well as he has against man.

despite him being due for positive regression on the deep balls. So that's a pretty, pretty startling thing. But Seattle against Mann so far, they've allowed an adjusted completion percentage of 90.9%, Steve. That's insane. A completion percentage over expected of 14.3%. Both of those numbers rank dead last in the NFL. And they've also given up a passer rating of 126.4 against, or when playing man, which ranks 31st of 32nd.

and that is despite a relatively high A-DOT. So they're giving up an insane amount of completions, even though the offense is targeting them deep, which is just pretty nuts. Right. So that's the storyline of this game. I think golf has a chance that he won't see a lot of man. He'll see man on 20 to 25% of the plays this week.

But when he does, they have to capitalize for this to work. And if the lines don't show up to play on the flip side, Gino is going to embarrass them. And, you know, that would be very very, very sad for Lions fans because they lost a heartbreaker last week. Yeah, this is, I mean, this is supposed to be, like, for a team that's developing, this feels like a game that, for all intents and purposes, it looks like a game that Detroit should win.

Yep. I think they're favored by about five and a half points, something like that. Like, this is part of the thing that needs a change in the, it. in Detroit is winning the games you're supposed to. They've been competing very well in games that they, you know, maybe not weren't necessarily supposed to compete it or they weren't supposed to be that close. But like these are the games that like start to change the trajectory of this team.

Winning these games where you're favored by, you're favored by like five and a half points. You're supposed they're supposed to come into your, your place and you're supposed to beat them. And it should be a, you know, just, you know, obviously they're going to be mistakes, but it should be a game where it doesn't leave any doubt in hand about what's going on.

Correct. Also, Seattle plays a lot of cover three, or, you know, they play cover three on about 20, 25%. So, which is a good amount. Jared Goff, 72.7% completion percentage against cover 3, 8.3 yards per attempt, 5.4% completion percentage over expectation. So there's something to as well. One thought on the Titans Colts.

I don't really have one other than I don't want to watch that game. I just want to see the Colts continue to turn it around. like if they if they can win this game get to two and two we can start to have I don't think Tennessee's that good but like if the Colts win this game they get to two and two we can start to talk about them reinserting themselves into the conversation of what they were supposed to be you still need to see way more way more improvement and better play from Matt Ryan I think that he's been a big factor in what's been holding this team back and I don't know if it's just familiarity with coaching staff, familiarity with receivers,

the offense, things like that. But this is a team that a lot of people had in the playoffs, dark horse, Super Bowl contenders. And like this is the week. They got a sneaky win last week that they weren't necessarily supposed to get. Can they build off of that momentum? Can Matt Ryan start to look more like the quarterback we expect? to see in Indianapolis. And I think Indy does end up winning that game.

Yes, I think they win it easily. All right, we have Texans versus Chargers. I have some coverage to quarterback specific data here again. So the Chargers run Mann a ton, but they haven't been very good at it, actually, this year. They've been terrible. But David Smills has been terrible against Man himself. his 0.21 fantasy points per dropback against man is 30th in the NFL. Yikes.

His completion percentage over expectation is minus 16.7%. He's been egregiously bad against man. His passer rating is under 70 against man. And that's despite a super low A dot of like seven and a half, which is not great against man. But on the flip side of that, the charges haven't been good in man coverage. they've allowed 0.61 fancy points per dropback, which is four times the amount Davis Mills is averaging. So it's going to be interesting to see what gives there, right?

Right. And they've allowed an adjusted completion percentage of 78.3, which is also 29th in the NFL. So the chargers are beat up. We know they've lost Bosa and Slater and they've got issues. Herbert's dealing with some injury. Keenan Allen got left the practice field yesterday. Oh, no. Yeah.

So the Texans probably don't have a big shot to win this game just because I don't think the talent matches up. But if they do, it's going to be because Davis Mills found a way to overcome his struggles against man. And the Chargers continue to struggle to playing man coverage. I'm excited to see Stingley against Mike Williams. Yes, hopefully he doesn't hurtle him for no reason. Chicago Giants. I mean, I don't want to. Battle of the two and one teams, because we all expected that.

This makes me sick to my stomach. Coming into it. I just, I mean, honestly, the only thing I'm interested in this game is, does Chicago's offense, do they throw it more than 20 times? Do they continue to run with this insane game plan of having a young quarterback, also not developing him? and like I just I want to see what in the world this Chicago like Chicago's offense is trying to be because like I don't understand why you have a young quarterback and why you're playing the way you're playing. You're you're just killing his development.

I mean, I just don't think he's good. What do you do with him? I don't think he's very good. I mean, even if that's the case, I don't think they're giving him a chance. to be any good. It's tough because he's not even given himself a chance. It's just... It's just a mess.

It's all overall a mess. It is a mess. And then the Giants, I don't even know. Their defense has played well. I feel like that's the only reason they're really in this position. Yes. But Dallas picked him. Dallas beat him pretty easily.

So, oh yeah. I think that that's more of what this season is. for them than what the first two weeks were. Yes. All right. Trevor Lawrence versus the Eagles. This is one of the more exciting games of the week because two up and coming quarterbacks, the Eagles run a ton of zone coverage.

They run zone on almost 72% of their snaps. They're very good at playing zone too. And Trevor Lawrence has struggled against zone. So this is really interesting. I think this might be a come-down-to-earth game for Lawrence. They're allowing just 5.9 yards per attempt in the NFL when playing zone. That's third. That ranks third.

They're allowing a measly 0.21 fantasy points per dropback in zone. That's second in the NFL. They're giving up a passer rating of just 67.2, which ranks sixth. They probably have the best zone corner in the NFL in Dariusleigh. So this is pretty tremendous. Trevor Lawrence on the flip side, really manned numbers across the board. but more importantly for you fantasy guys, just 0.27 fantasy points per drop back

when playing zone, which is bottom third. I think this could be a Cumbdown-earth game for him. He's definitely played better. We can see the development happening. But I think this Eagles team is too good. That coverage is going to really contain Lawrence. In the pass rush,

I think you combined with the coverage is going to really, really kind of set Lawrence back. I am interested to watch it, though. It's definitely tops of my priorities this week is to watch that game. And I expect the Philadelphia offense to do more of the same. I'm excited to see how they cover A.J. Brown. I feel like it'll be interesting.

I feel like they have length on the inside that can kind of potentially help with any in-breaking routes that A.J. Brown may run. But, yeah, this is, like you said, a big test for Jacksonville. We get to kind of, this is a really like kind of a game we get to gauge. where Jacksonville is as far as like the early hierarchy in the NFL. So yeah, this is at the top of my list as well for the week. Yes. All right.

Jets, Steelers, give me one thought. I have zero. Is Zach Wilson supposed to come back this week? I thought I saw Zach Wilson supposed to come back this week. I don't know. But if he is, then is he better than Joe Flacco? Yes, he's starting this week. Okay, yeah.

And so a lot of people have been saying, like, just wait until Zach Wilson gets in this offense. And I don't know, I mean, early returns on Zach Wilson last year were not great. And he, I mean, him being injured at the beginning, like, through the end of, training camp through the end of preseason beginning of this season. I don't know. It'll be interesting to see if I think we'll start to see whether Zach Wilson's the guy at the beginning of this year or like through the rest of the couple weeks here. We'll see if he's their guy.

And on the flip side, I just don't know how much longer Pittsburgh can roll with Trubisky. I think that they're going to do it much longer than they much longer than they should. Yeah. But they've already done that. And we know what that offense is with Shubisky. It's just a neutered, throw it outside the numbers, throw it short, basically the same as Ben Rathlisberger, just with just younger. And yeah, this is like another meh game.

Could see a lot of pass. I feel like we could see a lot of passing attempts, though. This could be like a pass heavy game. Gross. Cardinals, Panthers. Gross. There's a lot of games like that right now. I know.

It's just this whole thing of like figuring out what in the world each team is right now. And I mean, I feel like we know what Arizona is. Like Arizona's regression on defense, like it was coming, especially with that, like, they lost a couple guys. and they didn't really do anything to plug the holes that they had. It's here. I mean, it's here. The regression is here, and their defense looks really bad.

And now it's the movable object against the stoppable force with Carolina's offense versus Arizona's defense and which one will win. Yep. That's good enough for me. Broncos Raiders. This is a fun. game and I know a lot of people don't think so because Russ has been terrible but man like one of these teams has to come out on top the Raiders are oh and three this is potentially a you know

come to Jesus moment for either squad here so I don't know I kind of I'm actually looking forward to watching this one believe it or not yeah I'm starting to really worry about Russell Wilson the rest of the season I just don't know if he's at Yeah, he's, I mean, they definitely just don't look in sync. The play calling has been horrendous. Russ's unwillingness to throw over the middle is just, it's crippling him still. And I feel like Hackett's also not really tailoring the offense to Wilson at all either. Like, I feel like it's these two guys who are talking into, like, disconnected phone lines and just, like, talking to a wall.

Like, it feels like there's no collaboration. communication and it's completely stunting this offense right they're they you know for the let russ cook crowd we're letting russ cook and he's come back with a microwave pizza so they invested a lot of money in him so like they're going to have to see some returns here else this like this could be could end up being a cratering move for this franchise if if russle wilson doesn't start to show something. Steve, I totally missed it. I missed the joke.

I said, if they let Russ cook and he's coming back to the microwave pizza, I totally miss an opportunity here. Would you miss? They let Russ Cook. Oh, yeah. Came back with a.

Danger Witch. With Danger Witch. Oh, my God. That was one of the most haunting things I've ever watched. It's super spicy with its banana ring peppers. That's not, that's not the epitome of how bland that guy is. Right.

No, like, it's the perfect, perfect example of who he is. Be careful, it's dangerous, guys. Banana peppers. Okay, I'm no longer interested in this game. And it's gone. All right, New England Green Bay. So New England's another one of these teams that play a ton of man. They actually play more man than anyone but the Chargers, I believe.

And Rogers, shockingly, has been very good against man. As much as he struggled so far. And the crazy thing is he's doing it with an eight out of just six and a half. But his fantasy points per dropback versus man is obscene. It's like 0.77, which is super duper high. His completion percentage over expectation is 17. is pass a rating against man is 141.3. Unbelievable.

The Patriots haven't been great in man. They've allowed 0.61 fantasy points per dropback, which ranks 29th in the NFL. This is an opportunity. I think a lot of this comes down to the fact that the Patriots don't have a dog pass rusher. Right. They throw bodies at it. I mean, Dietrich Wise is probably playing his best football right now, but he's still not like an elite pass rusher. and it's really hurting that man scheme.

Because for man to work, you do have to get home. Yes. And like Rogers with Bokhtiari back. I mean, the offensive line in general is just really, really good. I know is Josh Myers out. There's he playing. Do we know? I don't know.

But either way, that line should hold up nicely for him. This is going to be a good opportunity for him to kind of really get going. I think, you know, Romeo Dubs is starting to establish himself as the guy. But this is also a good opportunity for Christian Watson to go get some. Yeah. So they're going to play man. They don't have a good pass rush. That leads to bad things.

And Watson's ability to get open downfield is tremendous. I would love to see Green Bay take some risks here and try to get the ball to Watson downfield. And then just really hammer dubs with targets in this game. I think it would be a solid game plan. With New England missing, the super tough starting quarterback that they have, Mac Jones, I think Rogers could actually have a really good shot to win this game. Yeah, Green Bay has been top five in time to throw this year. He's been getting the ball out fast, short and fast.

Yeah. So I think I'm going Green Bay. It is in Green Bay also. I'm going Green Bay here. There's no way Brian Hoyer goes on the road and beats the Packers. It doesn't happen. It could be a gross game, though. I mean, with the way this year is going, who in the world knows?

Well, that is true. But I guess, but you know what? I also do know that Brian Hoyer in 2022 is, there's a 99% chance that he is not leading a team to victory. Especially against the top five, suppose a top five team in the other conference. Yep. Kansas City, Tampa Bay. Did this game get moved or is it staying in Tampa? Last I heard they wanted to play it in Tampa.

All right, cool. that helps Tom. Tom needs this one badly. Actually, both teams really need this one. So this is actually a good game. I know we hyped Tampa Bay, Green Bay, last week, and it disappointed us as we kind of expected it would. I'm still excited about this one.

Anytime you get probably the current best against the former best, it should make for a good game. I'll push back a tad. I still enjoyed that Green Bay, Tampa Bay game because I enjoyed the way their defense has played against. True. That's fair. I mean, granted, I know that a lot of people, the general consensus is like you want to see the two-star quarterbacks going after each other.

But I thought that Tampa Bay, the way they adjusted after those first two drives and played defense, the rest of the way, it was super impressive. Which leads into this week a little bit in that Tampa Bay, they are so good at molding their defense, adjusting their defense. they have those linebackers are so good and that pass rush is really good and they're very adept at scheming up blitzes. Yep. And so this is, I mean, this will be a big challenge for Patrick Mahomes to, like, I know that he plays, he generally plays really, like, well against the blitz. Most good quarterbacks, you see them, their numbers kind of move up against the blitz.

But I feel like Tampa Bay is so good at disguising and scheming blitzes. and that it'll be interesting to see how Mahomes handles their pretty much fully healthy secondary with a full complement of pass rushers. I mean, like Tampa Bay's defense has completely has pretty much disguised the woes that have appeared on Tampa Bay's offense. Yes. Tampa Bay's defense has kept them in the game every single week. And it's going to be, it'll be interesting to see what breaks because this is where the somewhat void of talent in Kansas City's receiving core could be spotlighted a little bit. Yep, I agree. Tampa is also

You know, they're going to play a good amount of zone Um Yeah, they play zone on like 83% of their dropbacks. They do it very well. They're allowing a passer rating against it just 66.2. It's crazy good. Yep. They're, um,

they do run a good amount of split safety looks as well. I imagine like the trend we've seen is that they're going to try to make Mahomes be patient. You know, and that's I think that's a reasonable game plan. So they're going to play a lot of split safety stuff and just keep everything in front of them and make Mahomes take what he gets and try to make him string together long drives. And I think it's going to work. Tampa's been really, really awesome in cover two this year.

I believe that. Pass running against just 24.6. They've got two good safeties. Yep, two good safeties and rangy linebackers, which is, that's really what makes cover two tick is when you get those ranging linebackers they they change the game those guys they're like two of the best sideline to sideline and they play so well together and they also blitz very well like that there that's what can happen when you have like really good linebackers yep like linebackers you can kind of you know drop in fill in some of like the average guys above average guys and the

level of play won't vary a ton. But when you get guys like Tampa Bay has, it completely changes their defense and can make it so much more difficult to play against. I mean, Devin White, Devin White is one of the best

blitzing linebackers in the NFL. So who you take it in this game? I'm going Tampa Bay. I'm going Tampa Bay, too. I thought we'd be different on this, but I'm going to go Tampa. I just, again, and I don't think it's necessarily, I don't think it'll be my home's fault. I think it's going to be the receivers that are going to deserve some flack after this game. I just worry about their ability, like,

their ability to separate against these, the secondary, the secondary that's very sticky. They very sticky coverage guys. Yep. Who play physical too. On the other side of the ball, Steve, like Tampa's getting Mike Evans back, which is huge for that offense. It cannot be understated of how big it is. and then they also might, they're probably going to get Julio this week, and they might even get Godwin back. So I don't, like, it could be a perfect storm for Tampa to start clicking right at the right time. But even if they just get Evans back and the other two guys, it just helps so much, so so much.

I think a lot of Brady's frustrations will be reduced. All right, last game on the slate, and then we're going to boogie. Yep. We got Rams, 49ers. I can guarantee you that this game probably won't be as exciting as the playoff version of this game. Probably not. But it still should be a good game. This is a decent Monday night game.

One of the better ones you'll probably get this season. They always play each other really well. It's always an exciting game or at least an interesting game. My big concern with this game for the Rams point of view is like we've seen this now. It started kind of in the Super Bowl they started doing. in this and they've carried it into this year where they're they're not only playing zone they're playing this really really weird deep zone super like super yeah that's a better way of saying it sorry super soft zone where everyone's just way off the ball they're kind of just giving you stuff underneath

but i'm telling you right now if you do that against this 49ers team debo samuel brandon iuk and george kittle will destroy you yeah that's what they do and i think that's part of the reason why it feels like San Francisco has the Rams number in like the majority of the matchups. Except for dropped interceptions, but yeah. Yeah, and that's Richard Sherman's still on that about Matthew Stafford, not being good. But like that, that like plays exactly into what San Francisco wants you to do. Like they want to take the underneath guys, underneath routes because they have guys

who are like so elite after the catch that they like they don't care if they don't have to push the ball down the field. If you're going to give them, if you're going to give them two-yard drag routes, they have the guys that are going to turn those into 15-yard plays every single time. Yep. Oh, man. And if Shane and can say out of his own way, he gives them a big edge in this game. Um, yeah.

And who Fonga is, has real, I feel like he's really jumped off the page early in the season. I know I've seen a couple of people talk about him, and I did want to, like, just touch on it real quick. Like, he looks to be, he's a really good player. He's very rangy. And they play, they use him a lot of different, like, situations. Yeah, I did, I did not see that coming. I did not like him as a prospect. I thought he was box safety only and a liability at that.

We, I mean, we talked about it in our season preview podcast. We were talking about, like, what this San Francisco defense is with, like, the new faces in the secondary. and Hufanga because, like, stepped in and, like, delivered way above what I think anybody really expected from him. Yep. Yeah, that's been a good fine for them. They need it, too. Maybe if Stafford throws him a ball, he won't drop it. Well, I mean, that's also, it'll be interesting to see how much time Stafford has to throw the ball.

Because that, that 49ers pass rush is going to come after him. Vicious. And they looked rough to start the year on that offensive line. Yep. And Stafford's thrown four picks against zone already, too, which. Yeah, he's staring down the barrel of leading the league in interceptions again this year. Yeah. San Francisco plays a ton of zone, like a ton, like 90%.

So if San Francisco is going to mix up their looks, rotate some safeties, you know, show open, rotate to close, vice versa. And they're going to hit, get home on pass rush. Stafford's going to struggle on this one again. But, yeah, I'm taking the 49ers here, Steve. Yeah, I'm going to go 49ers as well. Stop it. Argue with me.

Let's fight. I just, it's the pass protection. I can't trust Stafford. Stafford against four-man rushes under pressure is the worst version of him. Stafford thrives behind an offensive line that can protect, forcing a defense to blitz to try to get pressure, and then throwing behind that blitz because he'll pick it, he can pick it apart. But the minute you start getting pressure with a four-man rush,

Stafford's numbers like to kind of go down the toilet, because he's just, I don't know, you know, maybe correct me if I'm wrong. It's not necessarily coverage recognition. It's more so that like Stafford at times gets so, he's so confident in his arm strength that he tries to fit the ball into spaces that nobody can fit the ball into, but he thinks he can. Yeah. And that's, and when you're doing it against Blitz, those windows are bigger.

But when you're doing it against just a four-man rush and seven men dropping back, those windows shrink and he's just he's too aggressive for his own good sometimes and i just worry about that because i feel like san francisco is going to be able to generate pressure with four men all day and it can look a little bit like what happened against buffalo for sure for sure all right well that's going to do it for the week four preview podcast um thanks again to our special guest joe marino know, Steve, any closing thoughts before I bid us farewell? I do not. It's just, we're starting to see people, we're starting to see teams separate a little bit.

I'm excited to, I'm excited to see what, yeah, what teams we're talking about and taking a further step or, you know, like, what we didn't. We thought that we were higher on them and now we're coming back to Earth with them. It'll be fun. Because I feel like this is a perfect time when this starts to happen. We're hitting like the quarter point in the season. Yeah, it would be nice to see the standings not look like a blob. Yeah. Usually this time of year you have like five or six undefeated team still.

And then you've got four or five, six teams that are 0 and three. There's only one 0 and three team and only one three and O team left. And everything else is in the middle. It just we don't know anything yet. And that's that I think that's giving people some anxiety. More so than any other season. Like you don't know anything. Yep.

All right. Well, thank you so much for listening, guys. We really, really appreciate it. Find us on Twitter. Find our work on FantasyPoints.com. I am your host, Brett Whitefield. This is my co-host, Stephen Rourke, and we are out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform, and come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.