Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Week 1 Cashing Points Podcast

Episode Date: September 10, 2022

Taken from the Week 1 Cashing Points Livestream. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back. Ladies, there's no ladies. Let's go, baby. Caching Points is back. I'm getting hyped up, man. I've been hyped all day. I've been hyped all week for the show. I'm especially hyped now that our guy behind the guys,

Ben Cucanis came up with the sickest wipe in all of fantasy football. Shout out to Ben for that. But guys, we're back. Week 1 is here. I'm here with my guy, Scott Barrett, one half of the two bars. I'm here with my guy Johnny P., Mr. John Proctor. one of the best DFS players and analysts in the game. We are here to walk through the week one slate.

The long-lasting national nightmare is over. Football is back. Cammakers is apparently dust. Game of Davis already has been fitted for his Hall of Fame bust and his gold jacket. I'm fully prepared to have his Hall of Fame induction speech ready to go. But guys, let's do it. Week 1, Scott, how you doing that? I'm doing great.

Football's back. DFS is back. The show is back. I already have takes to victory lap, like 10 acres being dust. This is just a great time to be alive. Great time to be a fantasy point subscriber. Johnny looking handsome as always. How are you?

Oh, you're on mute. Screwing up already. Oh, man. Good season form. I had my mic mute, my actual mic muted. It's a new mic still getting used to it. Yeah, man. I'm stoked to see what everyone else is wrong about come Sunday.

With this rate, it's going to be a lot. Yeah, I think that's going to be a theme of this week, man. The theme of every week one, honestly. Let's get to it. Let's get started. Saints Falcons, first game we're going to talk about here. Saints are five and a half points favorites. Overrunners 42 and a half.

Really the only injury note I have in this game is Drake London. He seems legitimately questionable with this. knee injury. And if he does play, he's going to be pretty limited. It sounds like Arthur Smith was saying something earlier today about how they're going to see how he feels tonight and tomorrow. We'll see how that goes. But we're going to start it here with the Saints side. Scott, I know Alvin Camara is one guy that you've been all in on for fantasy this year. As we're saying with me, how are we treating Alvin Camara and how are we treating the Saints offense? Because, I mean, in general, this is like the nuts spot for this attack here.

I think Grand Saints here. Yeah, I think if you're a sort of Neil Raglan DFS player who really try and sticks to our top plays and our best like under the radar plays, and you get weird with a quarterback

plus a stack. I think James Winston plus Kamara makes a lot of sense. James Winston, super small sample, but the most efficient quarterback for fantasy on a dropback basis, most efficient on an EPA per dropback.

basis or second most. And this is like the nuts matchup. Atlanta's been a bottom three defense against quarterbacks for three straight seasons. The concern a little bit is, is, you know, the past volume was never there for Janus Winston last year. And you saw with Alvin Kamara, like his touches skyrocketed, his snap skyrocketed. He lost out on some target volume, but like really made up for that with rushing attempts. And this, is by far in a way the most efficient running back, maybe in NFL history from a fantasy perspective. So I think he's a legitimately great play. He's not maybe one of my top five favorite running back plays. But he's certainly in play. Then Michael Thomas is questionable as well. And then on the other side of the

ball, I'm kind of hoping Drake London plays. I just like don't want to play anyone in the Falcons. but I mean, there's a chance he misses. This offense looks like it did last year. And then Codrell Patterson had that one 20-point game against them. And Kyle Pitts would be the other one getting forced to have the ball. But yeah, no one really excites me too much outside of Kamar. Yeah, I think this is just going to be, it's going to be a slow game. I don't think either of these teams really want to rely on the quarterback if they can help it.

So it just, you know, from a stacking perspective, it just doesn't really get you excited. I think there's, you know, there's some individual pieces. Wide receiver on the Saints, we really don't have a clue what's going on. I think Taysam Hill, where he is a tight end, is a guy that I would want to have a little bit of exposure to because we don't really know. You know, they've, you've got some people, some insiders saying that Tassum will still get those goal line, you know, touches and whatnot. you have some insiders saying he's strictly a tight end. I don't think anyone really knows for sure. I don't think he's not the starting tight end.

He's probably not even the tight end too, right? It doesn't even matter. If he has the opportunity to get goal line carries at, you know, the costs that he's going to be on various sites, you know, you get a rushing touchdown and two catches at a tight end who's like, you know, near minimum price. And he's like a top tight end of the slate. I mean, you know they're going to take shot plays to taste in two.

Like he's, he's going to run five routes and get through targets, you know. Scott, I got to bring you to task, man. This is, you've been waiting all week for all, sorry, all summer to play Kyle Pitts. I'm surprised you kind of, like, lost over him. He's, I know you said Fandwell hurts your heart. Oh, right. It's K on Fandual, man. He is a great fan to play.

Yeah, okay. I'm really making a point to just, like, I used to spend, like, 60% of my research time on drafting is 40% up. And it's going to be 90, 10. and I've never felt better about it. No, I totally get it. I totally get it. But I just want to say that. I mean, pets is 6K on Fandle.

He's going to be the chalk there. But yeah, Johnny, I'm with you, man. I think this game ends up being slower. In general, Saints were really run heavy with James last year. They had a 50% run rate in neutral situations with Winston healthy. I think we'll see them throw it a little bit more just over the course of the season. But, you know, they're nearly six-point favorites here. This game could definitely.

up being a total piece of crap. And honestly, there's just a lot better games, a lot better games in general, mostly. Oh, and one thing I wanted to say about Kamara before we move up, like, why he's not one of my favorite running backs in that range is, I mean, it was the preseason, so maybe it doesn't mean a lot, but he did get vulture at the one-yard line, and Ingram was a little more heavily involved than, you know, I was anticipating. He was my RB3 this off-season, so don't love to see that, but don't really love that

with this game script and the pace and all that. So we can move on. All right. Let's keep it moving there. We'll move it on. Niners and Bears. Niners are seven-point road favorites here. Overrunners 41 and a half.

I believe that's the lowest on this slate. Obviously, the big news this week was George Kittle. He heard his groin in practice on Monday. He's not going to play here, boosting up, Debo, and I youth just a little bit. So let's get started with his Niners side because I think the bears are pretty straightforward, Johnny. Lance is going to be pretty popular this week, and now his stacking candidates

have just gotten a little bit shorter between Debo. Now, Yuk, where are you out on Lance? Where are you at on this Niners team at all? I think I'm hoping for a pedestrian week one from Lance. I just, the bears aren't really that, you know, this isn't the game that I want to play Lance. You know, I want to play Lance when, like, they're going to get dusted by somebody.

So I think this is the week where, we let Lance and Lance is going to be overowned you know I mean there's just everyone is so excited anyone who is like a Lance fan is so stoked to just like play him week one you know he was drafted as what like the quarterback seven or so I mean he's going to he's going to carry ownership but they're what six or seven point favorites I think this is you know this is a week where I'm probably going to use Elijah Mitchell, who everyone forgot existed the entire summer. The rest of the running backs and the Niners are total dust. I mean, we're to the point where people are hyping up like Jordan Mason as like the guy to own in San Francisco. So I'm just going to play

the guy that crushed there last year every time he was healthy that nobody wants to play. So I think some plays are a little interesting. I think Elijah Mitchell is the best play. know they were hyping up a committee all offseason. He trappeded this guy super early, but Jeff Wilson's the RV too. So like I kind of think. TDP stinks. He's he stinks. And so Elijah Mitchell could be locked right back into that workload.

And given the fact that the bears have far and away the lowest implied point total of the week, I really think 49ers go as run heavy as possible. But if you kind of want to just let Trey Lance come out here and sling it, this is the defense to do it. going to lose to the bears. You're going to have insane field position all game. You're going to have a number of red zone drives, which means more red zone opportunities, rushing touchdowns for Trey Lance. And I really like Brandon Ayup. Like I'm he's not a cash play, but he's a great GPP play, no kiddle, hyped up all offseason as the wide receiver won. Her sources,

Debo Samuel was fat this offseason and didn't really give too much of a fucks. And, you know, we've seen before when one of these guys is out, the other two really commands more volume. That was IUC a few years ago or Kiddell when Debo was out. And this bears past defense on efficiency basis was arguably worse than the lead last year. So if you did want to let Lance come out and sling it, shake off the jitters, the rust, whatever, I think he could be quite successful. And then there's also the Matt Eberfluss narrative, Johnny, that we've always. always had how he specifically designs in such a way to counter an opposing team's wide receiver

one, which would be Debo, which could give more credence to the IU play. But I don't really like him as much as this, as I'm selling it right now. But he is a good GPP play. Yeah. And I think that we've talked about this in the past. Lance is like one of the few quarterbacks who you can stack with his own defense. Because if they get the ball at the five, you know, the chance that he gets a goal line touchdown is just as good as, you know, Elijah Mitchell getting one. That's a great team. Let's move it on here to the bear side. I think, you know, in general, Justin Fields is cheap, but this is like the worst spot possible.

I mean, this offensive line is completely overmatched by the 90s front seven. Scott, I mean, Fields is 5,600 on DK. He's super cheap. But, man, I think you and I think you and I are both off fields and really off the Bears in general in this spot. Yeah, I mean, the only thing I'll say is this is maybe my Exodia quarterback of the season. And, you know, when Lamar was my Exodia quarterback in 2019, I didn't play him week one because I hated the matchup. And then he scored 40 fantasy points and got pulled in like the third quarter.

But no, it's not going to happen this week. League's third best D-line versus the league's worst O line. No one's in play. Other sites are going to touting commit, where touting commit, according to. to our projections. I just don't see any touchdown upside. Also, the preseason usage wasn't ideal. SnapShare fell from like 88% to like 75%. Darnel Mooney, you can make a case for, you know, they're playing from behind. You want to chuck it deep. The secondary is not, you know, it's fairly beatable, beatable deep, but I'm not on that. Yeah. I will say, though, when,

when Commet was in there, and the Browns game was weird in the preseason, he was coming off the field. But like when he was in there running a route, he was getting the ball. Yeah. Yeah, he had six targets on Fields 29 dropbacks, something like that. So, I mean, yeah, if you pro-write that out to four quarters, it's like eight, nine targets. The volume would be there, but Scott, I'm with you. Like, the touchdown equity is just so, so low with them.

There's much better touch, tight-in plays on this slate. And I think, I think Fields Commet will be a popular kind of lazy stack that people are going to play. Yeah. Yeah, there's a lot of cheap tight-ins this week on both sites, really everywhere. I think that would be like my third or fourth favorite among that group. But any other final thoughts here on this game? Keep them moving? Nope, nope, nope.

All right, Steelers, Bengals. Bangles are about six and a half, seven-point favorites over anders 44.5. We got word this morning. Deonti Johnson is good to go. He didn't have a practice designation on the Steelers injury report that came out about 45 minutes So he is good to go here in this spot. Johnny, I mean, I know you and I have talked about this a bunch with Zach Taylor, but like trying to figure out what this dude is going to do is just like pulling

freaking teeth, man. I mean, like last year, you know, until they got to that like Chiefs game and Ravens game late in the season, I mean, they were one of the most run heavy teams in the league. And then they finally flipped the switch and went pass heavy. But in the two games that the Bengals played against the Steelers last year, Burrow attempted 18 and 24 passes. They absolutely ran the ball down the Steelers' throats. I have no idea what Taylor is going to do.

I know what he should do, and that's throw it all of his big guys. But, yeah, where are we out on the Bengals? How are you treating Burrough Chase and Higgins is a stack this week? Yeah. I mean, Coach of the Year candidate, Zach Taylor. I also just don't, I don't have a whole lot of faith in the Steelers to be an exciting offense to really, I mean, when Burrow has really crushed, it's been when, you know, they get pushed, don't think the Steelers are going to push.

The Steelers are going to try and play. They're going to try and hide Mitch as long as they can because it seems like they don't want to start pick it, but, you know, eventually they're going to have to. I don't know. It just, this game, this game just, I don't. really like anyone i don't think yeah i think it's a game to cross off the list too i mean pace is probably going to be bad i'm with you i don't think the steelers are probably going to push too too hard if anything i think they're going to slow down like big ben you know he was garbage

last year and just a shell of himself but they still played fast and threw a ton i think the sealers you know you know being a lot slower pace this year and run a lot more yeah there was also the rumblings that like Canada is actually going to be able to use his offense now, whatever that means. Well, I mean, no, that makes sense because, I mean, Canada threw shade at Rathesburg all last year basically like saying it's still his offense. He's still making all the checks and stuff. I think the Steelers are going to take like a big jump forward this year. I've been buying Naji and all their past catchers and fantasy.

But, yeah, I'm with you for this game. I just, I don't really see a ton of upside. there's a lot of really slow-paced games this week, and I think, I think this is one of them. This is surprising to me, because Graham, all offseason, you've been saying, you know, you want to be betting on the Steelers because- I want to bet on him with Kenny Pickett. I want to bet on him with Kenny Pickett, not Trubisky. I think Mitchell Trubisky is in play. He's our number one value according to our projections. I'm not really going to have much exposure to him, but, like, he's on paper in play.

George Pickens, Greg Cassell said, was far and away the best wide receiver in this class. He was hyped up to be better than A.J. Green per Daniel Jeremiah. He's exceedingly cheap. We know he's immediately starting in two wide receiver sets. He's in play. Wes Huber, per his coverage shell matchups, said Joe Burrow must play. Jamar Chase must play against cover one, which he shreds. How do you know that Pickens is going to start in two wide receiver sets?

That's happening Every beat reported it and, you know, preseason usage backs it up. I mean, Claypool was slot only in that, I think it was the second preseason game when Deontay, Claypool, and things were all healthy. So word to the wise is that Mike Tomlin is just a straight up liar. And the stuff that he does in the preseason is never like officially true. So I would be true. Pickens better than play pool.

Sure. But I don't know if he starts in two wide week one. I'd like him to. And so this game has like massive shootout potential and big over under. I think Hayden Hurst is one of the best cheap, non-minimum priced tight ends. If this game does hit and if it doesn't, I mean, what is it going to be the Joe Mixon show or a running back battle? Naji Harris, to me, looks after Christian McCaffrey like one of the best cash value.

at the position. Do you disagree with that? I'm just worried about his foot, man. It's probably dumb, but I am. No, so I think you're right. I think injury pessimists heading into the season, like players with injuries heading into the season, tend to win far more than the injury optimist.

So I think that's a valid concern. Yeah. I just pull up my note too. Johnny, maybe you're right. Tomlin is a liar, but in that second preseason game, Pickens ran more routes than Claypool, 17 to 10, and he, you know, kicked Claypool in the slot full-time. Claypool was in the slot for 14 to 16 snaps.

Is that the second game, though, where Pickens, like, started and then stayed on the field? Yeah. Because they wanted Pickens to play more in the preseason. So keep that in mind as, like, a rookie, they're just going to, like, play. him more. Yeah. It's just a little weird that like last year, Marquez Calloway was insanely chalky, Kyle Pitts and Stanley Chalky, Elijah and Sainly Chalky, and Pickens, 4100, no one wants to play him.

I mean, if you want to get Pickens exposure, just bet his prop, it's like 37 and a half for the over. I mean, the problem is like playing rookie wide receivers in week one is so risky. Justin Jefferson was at like 60% of the snaps his first two games. but I like a lot of them this week. I like Jahan Dodson. I like Wondell Robinson. Romeo Dobs is in play. I'm sure I'm forgetting someone, but yeah.

Yeah, he's just a GPP play. And Wes, Wes has enamored with this game, but it can go a lot of different ways. You know, I hear you, but, you know, it's got pieces that we all love for fantasy, but, I mean, the Steelers have a 19 implied total. That's down there with the Falcons, with the Jets. Like, I like none. Yeah, but we have, like, a super low ADP all. off season, you were, you were hammering.

No, I hear you, but I'm just saying for this game and for this slate, like, I just, I think there's better place to be made. All right. Yeah, but Najee definitely, like, in terms of a projection value, is a good value. What is he, like, 63, 600, 600 on DK? Yeah, I mean, him versus Seekwan's a question. Yeah. He's not really playable on Fandall, but he is on Drapking.

Yeah. This is a draft game show. I don't want to talk to him to all. All right. I'll be the cuck who Fandul fired me and John What's that? You may forget. It's true. Number fire.

Now Fandle. Right. Right. Yeah. To be fair. Drivekins, meanwhile, put me up in a hotel and showed me their awesome office in Boston back in the day. Yep. Could be working for an $18 billion company.

Right. You know. Now they, now I doubt they even have offices. Their office is just an NFT. Just the CEO's mom in a basement firing off tweets from the company account. Yep. All right, let's keep a moving here, boys.

Eagles, Lions, great game here. Eagles are four-point favorites. Overrunners 48 and a half. That's up two points since the open. Lions, really the only injury news I have is the Lions, offensive line, is a little beat up here. Vaitai's already out, Ragnos questionable, like getting all these dudes healthy for the lines is like impossible for them at this point. But Scott, man, Jalen Hertz time, right? I mean, man, you know, last year we saw the Eagles, you know, this was like kind of the game where they completely flipped from being a pass heavy team to extremely run heavy team.

But I got to think this year with A.J. Brown, Devontas Smith entering year two, Dallas Goddard constantly improving. like we're going to see the Eagles come out and throw it here. And that's what they did in the preseason. Obviously, I'm just going to drive. But is this the spot for Jalen Hertz? And if so, how are we playing this game? Yeah, Jalen Hertz is your chalk quarterback of the week. Lock him in.

He's a horrible play in GPP just because he's the highest own quarterback. Also, he's a runner. So it caps your stacking upside. So not really on that. Dallas Goddard is your second best on paper tight end value of the week, minus the minimum price tight ends. He's behind Travis Kelsey. If you want leverage Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, I don't know that I'm really about

that life, but that's the theoretical play. I think the lions are a little interesting because they might have the best quarterback trio in the NFL, the Eagles. And so what that means is it kind of negates Amun Rae St. Brown, who's good. They were top five against the slot last year. And then it also negates the other shitty guys you don't want to care about. They were the top tight end funnel defense last year, so T.J. Hawkinson's in play. And they gave up like the sixth most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.

We're expecting Detroit to trail. So this is a D'Are Swift game where I don't think Jeffers. is going to be too heavily involved. I'm not really about it, but those are the plays that stand out would be Hockinson Swift somehow getting there with the matchups pointing in that direction. Yeah, Hawkinson is the nuts if you're stacking up this game,

especially over on Fandul. I think he's going to come in dramatically lower own than Kyle Pitts. I know this is a no-fand-well show, Scott, but I... Yeah, where is he on Yahoo, Graham? Let's talk some Yahoo. I have not looked at Yahoo. week. That's that's Proctor's streets, man. He's always always good at the Yon streets. I will be.

Haven't really checked it out yet though. Yeah. He doesn't look until like 20 minutes before last year. It wins all the money. That's all he's doing on Yahoo, man. Yeah. Proctor, where are you out on the Lions and Eagles here and just all the things? Yeah, I wish, I was like excited about this, more excited about this game until, you know,

the Lions O-line became an issue. The O-line was going to be like their strength. And golf. I was like, I'm going to play golf. I'm going to play A.J. Brown. I'm going to play Hawkinson. And then I was like, no, I'm not going to play golf now. But I do, you know, Hertz is going to be incredibly popular.

I do think he makes sense to, you know, you do Hertz, Swift, Hawkinson, something like that. Because everyone, everyone's going to stack him with AJ Brown. That's going to, and Goddard. That's just going to be the most popular pairing. Devontza Smith is the way to get weird with Hertz. I mean, you don't even need to stack him. He just scores two rushing touchdowns and spreads the ball and ideally. Yeah, I mean, that's real, for him to hit the ceiling that you need for him to win

you tournaments at his ownership, he's going to have to run for at least one touchdown. So he's definitely not a guy that I'm double stacking. That's for sure. Makes sense. I was going to bring something up and I just forgot it. So we'll keep it moving. Let's keep you going to Pat's Dolphins here. Dolphins are three and a half-point favorites.

Overrunners 46.5. That's up a few points since open. Jalen Waddle's fine. I just talked to Edwin on our podcast like about an hour ago. Waddle will be good to go. Same with Chase Edmunds. He got back to a full practice on Thursday. Sounds like it was just like a super minor growing injury.

He should be good to go. Scott, man. Tyreek was one of our guys. the Patriots between losing J.C. Jackson and just all the reshuffling they've had to do with their defense now, their secondary is like legit bad. I know Belichick is a genius and he'll scheme it up, but I mean, they don't have anybody to slow down Hill or Waddle or two a year. So were you out on the Dolphins soon? Yeah, I think it's a little interesting. The dolphins are two as three and O against the Patriots in this career. Tyreek averages, you know, 25 fantasy points per game against the Patriots in his regular season career.

Johnny is going to accuse me of biting his tape, but I absolutely am enamored with Tyreek this week. I mean, I had him as a top six easy fantasy wide receiver. ADP was a lot lower on him, and draft king's salary is a lot lower on it. He's like $1,200 cheaper than he typically was last year. He said he left Kansas City, because he wants more volume, you know, that might happen this week. And they might want to show that already in week one. All this talk of two was more accurate than the homes.

And we saw what happened in the preseason, two routes, two targets, one of which was like a 50-yard bomb. I think he has the chance to go nuclear. He's one of my slate busters this week, like him, Aaron Jones, Jamar Chase, any one of those three guys can absolutely destroy the slate. one exposure. Again, I think the injury pessimist typically win early in the season, but Jalen Waddle could be in play and you could go with a two-a-stack. I think that's very possible. Patriot side, I have no idea, but I think, I think Tyreek is severely underrated. I think

Miami stacks are in play. In GPPs, like large fuel GPPs. I mean, if you look at the guys in Tyreeks price range in terms of like scoring probabilities and distributions like no one has a 35 percent game or 35 point game in his range of outcomes with no one no one's had in that range no one's had a 35 point game ever and Tyreek averages one every six games yeah i mean you know chase is 70100 but up for under seven k receivers on dk like it's it's yeah it's tarreek uh johnny were you out on Tyreek and Waddle here? Yeah, Tyreek's the best play on the slate. Tua's the best quarterback play on the slate.

I mean, I've been just like smashing two all off. Hell yeah. Scott, the take that Scott didn't quite steal was just that I think Tyreek is the biggest QV elevator like in the National Football League. He does what Deshaun Watson used to do. You would look at splits when Deshawn Jackson played with quarterbacks and when he didn't. And so this is the.

time to just like go all in on Miami before everybody realizes what they're going to be. I think McDaniel knows how to use these guys. He wants the team to be fast. He brought mustard over with him. I think Chase Edmonds people are going to be upset at how much mustard plays. Mostard is the fastest, still the fastest player in the NFL. So I think he is going to be an interesting guy in tournaments too, because there's like one running back in the league that can rip you off, you know, 80-yard touchdowns every two weeks, and it's probably still him. So I really like these guys. I'm going to have a ton of Tyreek.

I'm going to have a ton of Tua. Not as interested in Waddle. I think he's fine for the double stacks, but I want Tua to run. He did run a little bit in camp and preseason. I think he'll probably be a little more mobile this year than last year. But that's, I mean, that's pretty much where I'm going. And then, like, on the Patriots side, I think, you know, Jacoby's fine. I think Parker is probably the second guy I would play there.

Not really. Great camp, dude. Like, legit great camp. Yeah. He's going to be their touchdown guy, but the whole offense, the new offense thing is really concerning. I think there's a chance that the Dolphins just dust them and then the Patriots give up on this whole new offense thing already. But I think Damien Harris is fine. I think the Ramandre love went a, a little too far. And so I think Harris is probably a guy I would have some interest in at like, I mean,

no one's going to play him and he's the same price as Stevenson. Everyone's going to play Stevenson. And I think Harris plays more week one than Stevenson does. Yeah, we should note too, Ty Montgomery did get back this week. And I don't think he's going to be a huge factor, like maybe 15 to 20 percent snaps, but that's like eight or nine routes that Stevenson won't be out there, especially to your point because I'm with you. I think the dolphins absolutely dust, the Patriots.

I'm on Dolphins 3 and 1 half. But, yeah, that'd be my concern with Stevenson. Is that time, though, they just get dusted and Montgomery ends up playing. Matthew Berry said they wanted to be their Elvin Kamara. Stevenson? Yeah. It's the inside Joe of Johnny, but that's true. He said that.

The Stevenson stuff is so crazy, man. I mean, he's really good. I mean, he was better than, if you look at efficiency, like he was better than Harris. but the problem is, is like, he's going to be a bell cow next year. Yes. Patriots run these contract year guys, like their final year of their contract. They just run them into like bone dust. I said in my guys, he was my favorite keeper pick.

I think he goes nuclear next year. But this year, I'm with Johnny on a committee. Yep. Jacobs and Harris, Josh Jacobs and Damien Harris, neither of them will have like bone cartilage left after this season. their knees are just going to be like just sandpapered just grinding against each other yeah they can just hang out with sony michel on on his couch oh god i wait todd girly hey sonny michel got a job man he's better than isaiah spiller don't uh don't throw him a low bar um all right uh johnny i did want to ask you because you said you know all in on two all in on tarreek are you afraid at all that

like the Patriots just come out and just get completely destroyed and not really have to do too much in the second half. Like if that happens, like who were you bringing it back with on the paths? Parker or Myers? I'm probably just playing too and Tyreek. I think you're getting them at good enough ownership that I'm not really all that worried about it. I think in like really, really big fields. I think Parker is your best chance for like real upside. Meyer's just, you play him every, you would play him every week last year and you'd get you like nine draft Kings points. And you'd be like, oh, like that's solid, but like he's never winning me anything. And I feel like it'll probably be similar this year. So I agree with Johnny that this is the optimal play.

Like Tyreek is coming in at 8% projected ownership. Like no one's really on it. He's super cheap. He's going to get higher. Fuck. All right. But amazing play. But just in case this goes the other way, I want to say like,

so you don't flame my mentions. Like, yeah, it's the least, youngest and least experienced head coach versus the best coach of all time. There is a very legitimate chance. Belichick comes out running the triple reverse wishbone and somehow beats them with the fullback having 200 passing yards, 200 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards. And Miami is clueless, has no idea what to do. Mike McDaniel has PTSD for the rest of his life. It's definitely possible.

Mike McDaniel smokes way too much pot to have PTSD. I think he was stoned after the second half of one of our preseason games. I was watching. Oh, man. His press conferences are like national treasures. He is an interesting, interesting. All right. Let's keep a movie here, boys.

Ravens Jets. Ravens are seven-point favorites. Overrunners are 44 and a half. I really like the over in the spot. I think the Ravens come out. to destroy the Jets and garbage times to go and everything. But yeah, man, I wanted to mention that the Jets are going to be down to their third string left tackle.

Dwayne Brown got hurt this week. You know, that's not great when there goes, a statue back there. And any time he has to leave the pocket, it looks like a fucking car crash is about to happen. But that's another here to there. We'll start with a rated side, Johnny. No, let me take this. Yeah. I've been so excited to talk about this game.

for literally six weeks. When Jack Wilson went down with an injury, I was in a cold sweat and a state of panic. I was like, crap, did I get blackout drunk and accidentally make a deal with the devil to Will and Elijah Moore, wide receiver one season into existence?

And it's here. I message Johnny, I message Darren, I message everyone, week one, all in on Elijah Moore. 100% exposure. The end. and 90% Joe Flacco Elijah Stacks. I talked to a buddy at PFF who's like one of the sharpest minds I know.

He thinks the Jets come out and win this game. I don't know about that. Ravens were one of the most favorable matchups for wide receivers and quarterbacks last year. This year, everyone's healthy. They made some key upgrades. This is the best secondary in football. It's very risky. But 100% Elijah exposure.

I'm going to have Joe Flacco exposure. Don't play Flaco. Just play Elijah. Yeah. But 100% Johnny. That's fine. But I think the O line is a mean. You don't know about sources, Johnny.

You don't even know about sources. Let me tell you something. Can your sources tell you that the Ravens do not want Joe Flacco putting points up on them? It's a revenge game. You really think Joe Flacco is not going to win this? He's a lead. Oh, my gosh. He's elite.

So let me get into sources real quick and then you guys take it in a more curious direction. In our betting channel of our Discord, you can go look there right now. You'll find Elijah Moore's uncle who was saying, quote unquote, take your time, Zach. I know Joe Flacco is going to pepper our boy with targets. I know Joe's going to take care of Elijah. 100% lock him in. Last year, Flacco had like a 40% target share. Elijah was a top five fantasy wide receiver

when his quarterback was anyone not named Zach Wilson I've been I've been waiting for this moment for six weeks unironically but but go ahead guys dude that was that was great I gave out Elijah Moore over 51 and a half or 52 and a half something like that on discord and out of nowhere his uncle comes in and just starts hyphen up Elijah Moore and dunking on Zach Wilson which is dude he told me we're family now

No, he was like, dude, you've been all over Elijah for literal years. I listened to you on the podcast. It was epic. I do think this is a great spot for Elijah. I mean, regardless of their, you know, cornerbacks, the volume's going to be there. I mean, I think the Ravens are going to come out and just smash. They're going to have to throw all second half. I know the Jets are going to want to be balanced.

They're going to want to keep Flacco, you know, under wraps, whatever. Volume would be there. But, Johnny, where are you out on the Raven side? Because I think, correct me if I'm. wrong but like Lamar is pretty he's going to go like under on I think relative to his upside yeah I think everybody or everyone's like worried about this contract thing about like his deadline or whatever but yeah he's been saying all along it's just a deadline over negotiating because he just doesn't want to negotiate in season which I think is perfectly reasonable and so yeah no one's

really going to play him and I think it's a it's a good week to play him because Dobbins is probably not going to play or if he does play he'll be really limited. Gus. Dobbins might not play so like October. That's what it's looking like. Yeah, but they're doing that annoying thing where they're going to like list him questionable every week or whatever. Well, I mean,

Harbaugh has every incentive to, you know, under promise and over-deliver with Dobbins, you know? Like there's no way to come out and be optimistic. Right. Yeah. And it looks like Ronnie Stanley probably won't play. So I think you're going to get up, you know, Lamar is going to be running a little more. And so I think he's fun.

And then I also think what's interesting with him, so the like people doing double stacks, you know, they want to, the wide receiver two, like the everyone thinks it's DuVernay. But I think it's to Marcus Robinson. I think he is going to be the wide receiver too. So, you know, that's your millie maker play if you want to, you know, pair him with Lamar. But otherwise, I think Lamar just paired with Elijah Moore is a nice stack for like a single entry tournament. Yeah. Johnny, Daniel Bellinger or Isaiah likely for tournaments or cap. I'm not playing like the 10 snap tight end that everyone is like excited about.

I don't I don't understand the likely stuff. Like, I get it in, you know, like, Dynasty and stuff. But he was going into, like, the 120s in best ball drafts. But, I mean, when Andrews and Boyle are both healthy, like, likely he's not going to, he's not going to play. Yeah. Well, I guess the thing is, if they finally have a tied-in, like, Hearst, who they can play in 12 personnel sets that they can actually throw to. But I'm with you. I mean, that's like 15, 20 plays a game at most, you know.

Yeah. They're not going to throw that much. Right. And, and like, people just, like, refused to accept that Tyler Huntley is like a, like, a tight end cheat code. Yeah, yeah. So, you know, what like. And Mark Andrews wasn't on the field. Right. But this was a player, I, my model loved. And Dan Brasiano said, don't be surprised if he's immediately the number two receiver on the team. Granted, it was like a don't be surprised, bold takes article. But, yeah, GPP play, probably not a great one if he's getting ownership. I'd rather play DeMarcus Robinson than Isaiah likely.

Was DeMarcus Robinson? They signed him like, or they claimed him off waivers, and then he played like the whole last preseason game. He went for like 130 yards and two touchdowns. He's like old, like we're talking to Marcus Robinson from like eight years ago to Marcus Robinson. I had no idea he was still in the NFL. Yeah, he got cut by the Raiders because Matt Collins.

to be the now. And I guess the Ravens were like, fuck it. We need it too. Because they hate Prochet. Prochet can't run. Like he runs up 40. And DeMarcus Robinson can block. And, you know, the Ravens want wide receivers who can block. Yeah. All right. I mean, this game is honestly, it's probably the most straightforward game in terms of, like, who to play. I think Carter's a little interesting. Okay. If you want a PPR running back, because no one's going to touch him. And Flacco is going to throw to the running backs. Well, he's there, I mean, he's their one based off preseason usage. You know, the heartbeat of the offense, Salah said today.

Really? Oh, wow. Huh. Elijah disrespect. I hate it. All right. Let's keep it going here. Jags are the balls of the offense. Jags and the commanders, Washington.

When I looked it up a couple days ago, they're three-point favorites. I think that's come down. I think they're two and a half to two now. Jags are getting seen. Good luck with that. Over on us 43 and a half. There was a report that came out by ESPNB, Michael Dorocco this morning,

saying that James Robinson doesn't have any limitations. Doug Peterson was quoted the same. Like, he looks good. He looks like his old self. I don't know if I buy that. Johnny, you're shaking your head. I'm with you. Like, you know, I think, if anything,

this is just going to make ETN way lower owned. And that shouldn't be the case. Yeah. I mean, I could see what's going to be annoying is like when Robinson steals a goal line touchdown. or whatever. That's my only concern, dude. It's my only concern.

Yeah, I just, you know, we, I think Acres will, like, eventually get back to, to form. You know, we saw Donta, we saw it with Dantta Foreman, but, you know, it took him two years to really get to that point. And so I'm just not, I'm not buying this, like, James Robinson is, like, totally cool stuff. You know, I like ETIN, but I don't. I'm not like super stoked about him, I think. I think the running back I really like in this game is JD McKissick. What? I think the commanders hate Antonio Gibson.

Yeah, dude. They dumped a bunch of money to McKissick. I mean, they fought the bills to get him back. It's not like he's just not going to play. No one's going to play him. Dude, I had the same exact thought. It was so funny doing those best ball drafts, the last like 10 days or so.

To be a year to Robinson thing because everybody just boosted Gibson back up and it's like nothing's changed. They still hate them. Yeah. They drafted McKissick like every draft for like the last 10 days. Yeah.

So just to play devil's advocate, but to give credence to your first point, we were told in March the team hates them. They're looking to replace them in the draft and everything since then backed that up. And then the backup suffered the unfortunate injury. But in Tony, Gibson mispriced over his last seven healthy games, 20.1 carries, 3.9 targets, 17.4 fantasy

points per game. McKissick has only ever been a scatback. He's never been a scatback plus a la Kamara or Echler Swift, never even on that level. And I think Washington beats Jacksonville. I think Jacksonville sucks this year. I think he finished dead last. Sorry to Trevor accolades. And so I think he's in play. I think Etienne's all. pro in play, especially if that negative game script holds. And so that's just my reason. I think they're both going to catch ownership. I think they're both on paper values.

Yeah, I think, well, so no one's going to play McKissick at all. Gibson's going to catch ownership. I think if I'm playing Gibson, I'm playing him with Washington defense. But I think this game has a little bit of a chance to shoot out. I have a little more faith in Peterson, I think, than you do. I think the offense is going to be, I mean, they can't be worse than last year. I mean, Urban Meyer was like literally the worst. The thing is they'll be competent.

And that's what they'll be close. They'll be competent and they'll keep games close. And all their games won't be pieces of shit like they were last year. Yeah. No, and I think Gibson's fine. I just, I like McKissick and large field tournaments as a guy who has a chance to have a bigger role than people expect. So Christian Kirk here, 30-8 target share with Trevor Lawrence in the preseason. And that's what Greg is self-p predicted.

As soon as he got signed, he's like, this means he's going to be their PPR cheat code this year. I mean, he's their only guy they can line up everywhere. He can play a slide. He can play outside, like, and he's 5,100. I mean, this is a guy who projects for 8, 9, 10 targets and he's 5100. Yeah. And who says the Washington defense is going to be good this? Like we thought they were going to be good last year and they were total dust.

They were trash. Bottom five in receptions and yards allowed receivers. Like I think Kirk is a phenomenal like one off play just from this game in general. He's not my favorite wide receiver play from this game. What? You want to Jamal Swagnew? Jahan Dodson. Okay.

Okay. When Ron Rivera drafted him, he said, we drafted this guy because we think he can play right away can play right away at a high level he could play in the slot and outside it's a little bit of a concern because jacksonville when he did have shack riff in shadow he was excellent and he did shadow quite a bit but it's a new regime so you don't really know by all accounts dots and has been carson wend's favorite target this preseason he's minimum priced i dig it all right so i'm gonna i'm gonna tell you this for the third year in a row scott quit playing rookies in week one.

You just got, you just got to wait for them. I will say this is like the one rookie this week I am in on because to Scott's point, they don't have a two. I mean, who else is there two?

And you don't have a tight end? Curtis Samuel, Curtis Samuel is like a motion play. Like he's, he's gonna play more than you think. He'll play, yeah. But I mean, he's, he's not going to be somebody

there can throw the ball downfield to. Logan Thomas has hurt too. Like he looks, Scott, you, I think you sent him that. I would a yes. Dude, he looked toast.

You guys remember when Carson Wentz played for the Indianapolis Colts? I think so. I tried to purge that from my memory, but. Do you remember what the twos and threes did there? Not shit. Well, that's because Dawson's the one, Johnny. That's what I'm saying. They don't have Jonathan Taylor.

We have someone better. I will probably, I don't know if I'm going to play like any rookies in week one. I just, it's just a tradition for me. I think they always get overdrafted. When I was observing, one of the kids was building the draft Kings team, and he put in George Pickens. And I was like, this kid's not even old enough to, like, play draft Kings, and he's going to play George Pickens.

So, you know, I'm out. And that's a true story. You're the sickest teacher ever. You're going to be fielding game theory questions from, from your students i can john it's supposed to be teaching trigonometry he just turned into like a how to dominate draft things like fired for running an illegal high school book you should uh incorporate everything you did uh some poker math lessons and game theory into your in your classes too none time for i might well try um all right guys any other final thoughts here

game? No. All right. Keep me moving. Browns, Panthers. This game is pretty gross overall. Panthers. Is it? No, I just think. I didn't know if you were like all in on David Bell, another rookie or something. Oh, damn. Panthers are, I saw it too. This has been being bounced around. The public is all over the Panthers, but the sharps are hammering the Browns. I think it was two and a half, and then I got hammered down to one and a half, even with like 80% of the public on the Panthers. So that tells me there's some big money coming in on the Browns here, and I think for good reason.

But for fantasy, man, this game is kind of dead. McCaffrey is the best player in fantasy when healthy. We definitely need to talk through McCaffrey, but Johnny, I mean, I really don't have much else from this game. I want to have some DJ Moore exposure. He's a guy who I want to play. before it happens, you know, like if it happens this year, which I think Baker is finally, I think Baker is better than he gets credit.

Like, I don't think Baker is as good as he was, you know, year one. No one gave enough credence to how hurt he was last year. Like, not only was he dealing with the shoulder injury, I think he, like, blew up his ribs or something early in that season, too. Like, he was never helpful. Yeah, and I think he really hurt himself, you know, by saying, you know, I'm fine, this and, you know, I'm full participant, whatever. So, yeah, I do think he can be okay.

I like the Browns, I think, like Browns defense with Chubb a little bit. Because I think, you know, Brown's defense is better than, like, just the Browns defense by itself is better than, like, the entire Panthers team. So I think that's why people are probably betting on the Browns. I think the Brown's offense is going to be total garbage. I like in Joku a little bit. I know that Jake Briscuit likes to throw the tight end, but nothing really gets me stoked. So this is a revenge game for Baker Mayfield. I think that matters to him.

I think that probably matters to the team. He's now the leader. This preseason, he targeted running backs at the third highest rate of 75 qualifying quarterbacks. And keep in mind, he was throwing to plotters. And now he has Christian McCaffrey. So I think if you're playing in a millie maker, this is one of those games where it makes sense to staff. No one wants any exposure to it. But again, only millie maker.

You do a baker to CMC. That's plus EV according to my data and it's never utilized. Or you go Baker plus CMC plus DJ Moore plus Kareem Hunt on one of 150 lineups, something like that. Yeah, one thing I think is interesting. I still have to study this offseason looking at how often backup quarterback's cover from a Vegas perspective. And so maybe the public tends to overweight quarterback play where like a team like Cleveland, Sands quarterback, is vastly better than Carolina Sands quarterback. That's a part of what it is, absolutely.

But anyway, CMC, Cache game lock, he's my favorite running back because he's a god. And highest ceiling, highest floor in fantasy, highest median projection, he's a monster. Yeah, I mean, the case for McAfrey's the case of McAfreth for the last four years. And now he's 8500 where he should be, what, 9500? Yeah. Yeah. You can make the argument to play other guys on Fandall, I think, but on draftings, the price is bad.

Yep. Yeah. And by the way, this is down to a pickum now. It's not even one and a half. Got it all the way down to a pick-em. So there's been a lot of money coming in on the Browns. I wish I should have grabbed that as a mistake. But no, we got one more.

We got one more game here in the early window. Colts, Texans. Colts are seven-point favorites, overrunners, 45 and half. And I think this game has a chance to really shoot out here. I think the public is kind of not fully come on board to how much faster pace this Colts team is going to be. Last year with Wentz, they were 31st in Situation Neutral Pace.

They played super slow when trailing. They played super slow when leading. And one of the things Matt Ryan has always done with the Falcons is play fast. His teams, the last three years have been top 15 in pace, Situation neutral pace, three straight years. I don't think they're going to turn into the Cowboys or Charger event like that. But I do think there's some credence to being a lot faster, and that's going to be a lot more volume for their passing game.

my only concern for this game is Davis Mills looked like absolute trash in the preseason. Granted, he didn't have Brandon Cooks for any of those games, but we need the Texans to keep the Colts foot on the gas here. But Scott, I mean, JT seven point favorites against the Texans, like, you know, I know McAfre's the best playing on the slate, but I mean, JT's right up there with him too. And I think on Fandall, you can make an argument that JT is probably the better tournament play because he's the, by far the most expensive option. I think people are probably going to be playing, you know, Henry McAfrey is slightly lower prices. Yeah, I mean, what did you have, like 150 to 170 rushing yards plus two

touchdowns in each of his two games against Houston last year? I do think the offense went more run-heavy because of Wenz's ineptitude and his inability to target running backs, but that's been a focal point of the offense this season. I just referenced Baker-Mayfield stats when targeting. running backs. Matt Ryan led all of 75 qualifying quarterbacks and running back target rate. This preseason, the head coach, Frank Wright, came out and said, if I was in a fantasy draft, I would take Nyheem Hines. He literally said that. He said he wants some top three at the position and catches this year. So I don't know if Matt Ryan, I think Matt Ryan boosts Jonathan

Taylor's receiving expectation, but I also think Nihim Hines is, you know, going to be, a lot more in play most weeks, maybe not this week with so much positive, expected game script. But I mean, the elephant in the room is Michael Pittman, who is arguably the most misprice wide receiver of the week. I think he's like wide receiver 24 by salary. That's insulting. We had him wide receiver eight in our season projections. I was talking to JM before the show, JM to win. And he had a great take. I don't think it's a great week one take, but he said, Alec Pierce is going to be the nuts one of these weeks. One of these weeks, Pitman, Taylor are going to have heavy ownership.

He's going to score two touchdowns and break the slate at a chief salary and no ownership. But yeah, I mean, that's what you're looking at. It's like Taylor or Pittman. For Cash, I think Pittman's a lock. And for Cash, I think CMC is the lockover Taylor on Draft Kings. Yeah. I mean, Pitton's going to be the highest stolen receiver on the slate, right? I mean, he's going to pop in every projection model is the top value.

On draft king. If Taylor also wasn't massively owned, he'd be, you know, leverage or whatever. But on the Texan side, I mean, I don't know. Damien Pierce on Fandall, a Fandle tape for you guys. Mike is my only concern with Pierce, man, and you know how freaking high I've been on him. It's like, Burkhead played a lot last year. Like, I think people forgot or just, like, tuned out on the Texans. But he played like 57, 58% of snaps.

I think there's a legit concern that Burkhead takes away a lot of Pierce's passing down work. And I mean, this is not a game where I'm expecting the Texans to, like, you know, have positive game script. I think the Colts cannot smash him. But, I mean, Pierce is too cheap, that's for sure. I will say, Lovey just, like, loves this dude. Yeah. I mean, Pierce is like his boy. So I think he may play a bit more than we all expect in terms of a split with.

with Burkhead. Okay. But I'm still not sure this is a great. I mean, Shaq Leonard being out definitely helps, but it's still not a game that I'm, like, excited to use Pierce on. Though I think,

I don't think he's going to be as highly owned as we had all thought. Now with, like, Antonio Gibson, becoming a value, Barkley, Harris are all fairly cheap. Pitman's so mispriced. Like, I don't think people really need him. So if you want to play him,

you definitely don't have to be worried about, you know, him being like 30% owned or something. I don't think that's going to happen. Coldside, though, like this is just total conjecture, but I think they should, they should and probably want to open the season, getting Matt Ryan going. So that kind of makes me less excited about Taylor.

I think the past catchers are guys I'd be more excited about. And then Alec Pierce, like I'm not even sure he did enough in the preseason to beat out Paris Campbell. So I don't know. People are hyping up Harris Campbell, including Jay Tribute. Yeah, well, I think Campbell's still the wide receiver too. I don't know if that holds the whole season. But if I was going to do a Ryan double stack, it would be Campbell or Mo Ali Cox before I played Pierce.

Yeah, I was going to mention Mo Ali. In the preseason, you know, it's 20 dropbacks taken with a grain of salt, small sample size, yada, yada, yada. But Moly Cox ran around on 15 of Ryan's 20 dropbacks in this. two games and that's a huge boost up for him. He was at like 40% route share last year, just like not even a part-time player. He was just basically a role player for them. If he's going to be a full-time guy, I mean, he has a ton of touchdown upside and he's super cheap. Obviously, you're probably not one-offing him, but if you, to your point, Johnny, if you're playing Ryan stacks, I think I think he's a really good way to get weird.

He's exceeded 110 receiving yards in 50% of his career games without Jack Doyle. but a more serious stat is this is the tight end guru Frank Wright you know his tight ends have ranked top five and team fantasy points and like every year of his career except for one my question is Mo Ali versus Irv Smith versus Hayden Hurst do you have a lean there Johnny um is it just the over under for her because I otherwise like Ali I think it looks like Donald Parham might be out, so I may, I may, like, Everett more than both of them now. Yeah, we'll get to that game, but I, like, Everett quite a bit. I wrote him up as a top student, Red Star Sit.

Parham hasn't practiced in, like, two weeks, so. Yeah. But, yeah, I actually, I do, I do, like Mo Allie a good bit. I think his touchdown, especially on Fando, I think his touchdown equity is, is much better than the rest of those guys. Yeah. Oh, this is a great matchup, too. but, yeah, Texans might have given up the most touchdowns to Titans last year,

something like that. Sim starts safe. Yeah, I mean, they were up there with the Eagles in terms of being one of the worst tight-in defenses for sure. All right, that's enough time on this game. Let's get to the afternoon slate here, Giants Titans. We'll be able to breeze through this game pretty quickly. I mean, for his game scripts go, this is like the King Henry,

game script, Tennessee's five and a half. Dude, this is a Burke's game. Are you kidding me? number four wide receiver Trelon Burks who can't beat out Kyle Phillips By the like our guy Brett was all over that. Brett Whitefield like I think somewhat jokingly on a call this summer was like yeah Kyle Phillips is going to beat out Traylon Brooks

and lo and behold he actually. Yeah, I don't think he was joking. I've seen his. He was smiling as he was saying it. So maybe he just knew he was right. He just knew he was right. But anyway, yeah. I mean, this is like the King Henry spot, man.

I was fading this dude with an iron fist all year in fantasy, especially in best ball. But, I mean, he's going to come out and probably shove it down my throat here, at least for week one. In wins, and over the last three years, Henry's averaging 25 carries, 132.9 yards per game. And this Giants run defense was atrocious last year. They just lost Kavon Tibadoes as well. I think Henry is pretty much the only clear-cut play in this game. But Proctor, like, where are you at with Henry in terms of ownership because now I want to get on some him or if he's going to be underowned yeah I don't

think he's going to be all that owned I think he probably comes in in sort of that average every week for Henry where he's not like a you know top tier play where he comes in like eight to 12 percent or something like that I definitely I like Henry more than I like Jonathan Taylor this week just because I think he'll be less owned um So, yeah, I mean, we saw him going. He was towards the end of the best ball season. He's going like 10th overall when he started, you know, like fifth. So I don't think he's going to be as popular as sort of we think he might be,

even with casual players. Johnny, Sequin. Yeah, I think, you know, Sequan's one of the value running backs. But I was never like as stoked on Sequin as, as the rest of the fantasy community. I think the giants are going to fucking suck. So that really hurts. Daniel Jones also doesn't,

has never thrown to Berkeley as much as Eli did. I think people just like forgot about that. We don't even know who's like playing wide receiver for them. I mean, he's a value, obviously. And he's a, you know, can rip off an 80-yard touchdown. That's what Barkley can do. but I think you're like 25% 20% ownership. I'm probably not playing him this week.

My thing with Barclay, sorry, Scott, is like, I'm 100% with you that this, they're going to stink. Like, they have no juice at receiver. They are, if Tony gets hurt again, they're fucked. Like, they have nothing at receiver. And Daniel Jones has never been a guy who's elevated talent at all. I think Barclay's going to go over on. everybody's going to see that like 6,100 price tag and just go all in. I don't think this is the

spot for it. But Scott, sorry, I didn't need to cut you off. Yeah, so I guess let's move to the wide receivers because there could be some value there. Wondale Robinson, all Bs were saying, is going to be the starting flat wide receiver. Titans were the worst defense against flat wide receivers last year. Peter King said he was the star of camp, et cetera, but he's a rookie. So Johnny hates him. He was like 5'7, dude. He's tiny, man. I love one, too, but yeah.

I think there's a chance Shepard plays this week, too, by the way. And as I say, yeah, Shepard's back, who Dan Duggan predicted would lead the team in receptions. Ghaladay hopefully is on the bench, but he could be a starter given that contract. And then there's Cadarius Tony who does appear mispright. He's also playing for a new regime. He's playing out of position. He's playing out wide instead of the slot.

but I mean this guy was a freak whenever he, you know, was healthy and on the field. And by all accounts, he seems healthy. Yeah. He's the only giant I really want to play, honestly. Yeah, I like the Tony Henry pairing. Like if Henry rips the game open, I think Tony's got a shot. I'm not playing Wondale. I think he's going to catch ownership now that Rondell Moore is out.

And I'm just not going to do that. yeah actually tony wasn't even on the injury report this week so i mean the dude can get hurt in two snaps and hurt his hamstring but right now he's as healthy as he's been all uh all offseason seemingly we'll see but yeah um on draft games barclays is probably going to be the highest own back right probably mcalfrey and then barclay the kaffrey than berkeley okay uh packers vikings real interesting game here and it's even more interesting now that Alan Lazzard is not going to play he's doubtful but he hasn't practiced all week I talked to Edwin in our injury pod that we're doing every week about a couple hours ago he said there's a chance that Lizarb might miss a couple

weeks here this could be an ankle injury he was guessing that this is like a high it could be like a high ankle thing he got stepped on and rolled his ankle really bad we'll see but Lizar is not going to play this week Robert Tunyon sounds like he has a chance to play If he does play, it's going to be in like a really limited role. He's still coming off in ACL. He's 10 months removed from it or so. If he does play, it's going to be in a limited role. Probably Red Zone only.

But I thought I throw that out there. The bigger news for the Packers is their offensive line is seemingly healthy. Finally, David Bacierre is going to be back after missing basically the last two years. And they're going to get Elginz Jenkins back too, which is huge. So, you know, no Lazard, but the Packers are trading an offer. Finally, a healthy offensive line for the first, you know, first time in two years for Rogers. Boys, there's a lot of talk through in this game. I'll get it started with the Packer's side because I think it's probably the hardest to parse through.

But Johnny, I mean, Aaron Jones has just massive, massive upside, I think, in this spot. Obviously has the huge splits without the Bonte Adams, but now, especially with Lazard out, I think Jones just has a nuclear ceiling on draft kings this week. Yeah. Man, I was so excited to, like, I wanted Lazard to play and, like, be limited so I could play Watkins and Jones. but now Watkins is going to be popular, so probably not going to play popular Sammy Watkins. We're going to go 9-126 and 1. The next week he's going to pop his hamstring and that'll be it.

I've been talking about it for a month. Like, I'm going to play Watkins week one when everyone else plays Lizard, get my one week. But yeah, I think if I'm playing Rogers, my most popular pairing is going to be Aaron Jones. I am sort of treating Jones as a receiver in my mind. So that's what I'm going to do for this. one. And then, I mean, I think Watkins is fine, but I think he's going to be higher owned than you want someone like him to be. And then I don't know, do we have, is Christian Watson going to play? He's been ramping up the whole. Okay, yeah, not on the, not on the injury report. Yeah, so I don't

think I'm going to touch Watson or Dobbs because I don't really know what their role is going to be. I think they might rotate a bit too. I mean, they like them both. Watson has barely practiced, but, you know, he was drafted ahead of Dobbs, even if everybody is more excited for Dobbs. I'm pretty sure Watson's, like, off the injury report. Like, he's been practicing all week, so. Yeah, it looks like they just, yeah, no designation.

So he'll play. Yeah. So it would be. So it'll be, who's going to play the slot, Scott? Cobb. Well, Cobb, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

So here's a stat from the great grand barfield. The last four meetings, the Vikings and Packers have gone over the total and combined for 59.8 points scored. My question is how popular is Justin Jefferson going to be? Because he looks like he could be one of the best plays of the slate. He has the third highest passing yardage prop of any quarterback. He's just ninth in salary. Justin Jefferson is the highest receiving garbage prop of any player on the slate. And then Adam Thielen said in a podcast this offseason how much he loves playing Green Bay. And it clearly shows he averages 20.9 draft Kings fantasy points per game over his last 10 games against Green Bay.

And in the top 50% of those games, he averages 33.5 draft Kings fantasy points per game. Erb Smith is a little cheap. Dalvin Cook is going to supposedly be more involved in the past. passing game. But I really like Kirk Hussein. I just love this game in general. And I think if the Vikings do what we think they're going to do with Kevin O'Connell and that's passed way more, like then passing more, bringing up the pace, like all of them in. Because you know the Packers are going to try to play slow, but if Vikings are, you know, threatening on every drive, man, this game could go to the moon. But, yeah, curious for your thoughts, Johnny, on the Vikings side

here. Yeah, I like the Vikings. I like this game. I like Rogers. I like Kirk. I probably don't like them as much as some of the mobile quarterbacks, but I do like them a bit. And I think... I like him because he's not mobile. I just think that strengthens. I like Rogers because no one's going to play him. He's going to be 2%. Yeah. He might start to catch ownership with Watkins getting pumped, but... And the stack is cheap. Yeah. You could go double stack. And we have to monitor what's going on with Alexander Madison. I know they said that they expect him to be back, but he's missed like three days, I think, with a personal matter.

They haven't really updated it. So if he ends up not being. Well, for the previous regime, we don't really know exactly what he's going to, you know, his role is going to be this year. But I think, you know, you have to expect he's going to play some. It definitely bumps Cook if he's just, like, flat out out. Yeah, I just pulled it. He doesn't have a designation, so I guess he's probably going to play. Well, he doesn't have a designation, but he's not with the team.

It's a personal matter. I'm seeing Ben Gosling Star Tribune Friday saying the Madison's going to be available. He said they expect him to be there. Okay. But it's like a weird, a weird thing. Back to me. I know, I see it, yeah. Yeah.

No one's, no one's really said what the personal matter is. Yeah, it looks like he missed today and yesterday. So I don't know. Just something to keep in mind, like Sunday morning, you know, Madison's not here, boost up Dalvin Cook a little bit. Okay. Any love for Scott, did you bring up Burbs Smith? Because, I mean, I think he's in that bucket of like the three or four punt-ish tight ends

that are really strong. I mean, he heard his thumb. in the preseason wasn't like a soft tissue or anything like that. He's been getting ramped up off his knee injury last year. Anyway, I think Irv is like full go and God bless, they need him, man. Tyler Conklin's gone. They have no other tight ends behind him. So I think Irv is a candidate to be like 75, 80% route share to start the year,

which is really strong. And he's, what, 3,400? I think Erbs are really, really strong play, especially in Cousin's stacks. Yep. Yeah, he'll probably be the most popular. Chief tight end, I think, too. And for good reason, he's a really good play. Yeah.

All right, let's keep it going here, guys. Talk through, there's a bunch of really good games this afternoon window. Second one is Chiefs Cardinals. Chiefs are four, well, they're four-point favorites. Now they're up to five, six in both spots. Overhundred is 53 and a half. We've got to parse through what's going on with this Cardinals receiver room. There's now some, like, optimism that Zach Hertz is going to play,

but he hasn't practiced in like five weeks in full. He's been dealing with his calf since, like, the first or second week of August, something like that. So if he does play, I got to imagine he's going to be a little limited. Same with Ron Del Moore. I mean, they're sending him in for an MRI. It sounds like Ron Del Moore might miss the next three or four weeks. And Antoine Wesley is on IR. He heard his hip in August.

We haven't seen him at all. He's not going to play until week five. So, like, Hollywood, man, is like set up so well, especially in this game. We're expecting the Cardinals that have to chase. Scott, I'll throw it over to you first because I know you're a Hollywood guy just like me, but I mean, Hollywood is a fantastic play here. I mean, on Fandual, I think he's 6,800. He's going to end up getting, I think, getting steamed, 6,900, but he's a phenomenal playman.

Yeah, he's a cash lock. It's Pittman, Elijah, Hollywood. Throw another wide receiver in the flex, maybe if you want. But yeah, he's the odds on favor to lead the league in targets this. week. This was Kyler Murray's boy in college ahead of C.D. Lamb. Literally, no one else is healthy. I think as gross as it sounds, like AJ Green is very in play for tournaments. He's not really a tremendous value, but no one's going to play him. And yeah, sure, he's 34 years old and cooked, but, you know, this is when you want to play 34-year-old players is week one before they start to

break down. And I think whoever is in the same. slot is really interesting. My bet is it's my guy Greg Dorch because they had Andy Isabella playing outside. This year, both of them were amazing in preseason. This year, Dorch was a preseason standout last year as well. But yeah, my bet is Greg Dorch. And like, I really don't see much of a drop-off from Rondale Moore to Dorch. I think he just slides to that role and is equally as effective. I don't know how much upside is there, but definitely a great value. You unfortunately, the risk with us not knowing for sure who it is means he's, you know, you can't play him in cash and et cetera. But tight end, yeah, if Ertz is healthy, you're not playing him.

If he's out, you're not playing him. You're not playing Tray McBride. And I guess those are, I'm not playing James Connor. I think we'll get ownership, though. Those are all my thoughts. Yeah, I don't know if I'm ready to say that Marquise Brown is a cash lock yet. do think he's a pretty strong play, though. All four of those wide receivers are going to play because that's what the Cardinals do.

So it'll be Dorch, Isabella, Green, and Hollywood. And then I guess if Ertz plays, Ertz is a little interesting. I mean, Kyler did like him last year. I don't think I could, like, I don't think I could play Dorch or Isabella unless I'm playing Kyler teams. I do think Kyler teams are interesting to rotate those. guys. But more likely, I'm more likely to play Mahomes paired with Hollywood because I think if Hollywood does have a ceiling game, then we probably see Mahomes eruption. The Cardinals' whole team is beat up. They're missing one or two corners. I think we all know how Andy Reid

does with multiple weeks to repair. I think we might just see Mahomes like explode. And no one's really going to play him because as much as they should because they don't know who to pair him with. You just pair him with Kelsey. I'm not messing with all these wide receiver rotations that they're going to have that, you know, I don't know why people were shocked to hear that they were going to rotate wide receivers as if that's some surprise. Hey, you know what? People were taking juju over Amon-Raw St. Brown over Deontay Johnson. I was here for it, man.

I'm so glad juju got steam because I just loaded up on everyone that wasn't ju-choo. Yeah, and, you know, I think Juju probably does lead them in targets, but, you know, he's not worth a fourth round pick. No. Yeah. Yeah, I think, I think you're right. I mean, Mahomes, Kelsey, then bring it back with Hollywood will be popular, but it's a strong play. Yeah. Be careful because PFF said that, you know, Kelsey's going to lose his job to Nolan Gray this year.

Jody Ford's then, too. Dude. Right, right, right. I forgot. Both of them. They're both promising young players. The overreaction theater in the Twitter streets these days is... Why take Kelsey in round one, you could have Jody Forston.

Yeah, it was just weird. Tyreek barely played in the preseason last year. Andy Reed has changed his preseason philosophy over the last two or three years. My losses on playing Kansas City starters can tell you that things have changed. Let me tell you something. might be crazy, but 33-year-old Travis Kelsey, who's in the fifth year with Mahomes, might not need to play in the preseason. I don't know.

That's just a wild problem. And if you've said repeatedly, Mahomes has said repeatedly, listen, it's a wide receiver by committee. We're going to have four wide receivers involved. We're going to spread the ball around, but the offense runs through Kelsey. And Kelsey, I, you know, Johnny is the king of just grab the cheapest viable guy you can get, but I think there's value this week. Emma Holmes is what, $2,000 cheaper than he was weekborn last year.

I looked at his numbers. He averages over his last 30 games exactly 3X's salary. He's hit 3X in at least 50% of his games over that span. He's just a nuts play. I don't really like the wide receivers, to be honest. If this game is super chalky and I think it's super chalky, I guess Connor or CEH is the leverage. but I'm not really on that.

I'm trying to bring up Connor just simply because, like, what if he is the bell cow? And they play in the game script and he gets six, seven, eight targets. Like, no one's going to play them because he's what, 7K? I mean, all of our favorite value backs are, you know, the 6K range. I mean, he's even more expensive than Aaron Jones and DeAndre Swift. So I think people are going to be off Connor. But it's gross, but there's definitely leverage there. Yeah, I think Connor's okay.

He's going to be a bell cow. I mean, the thing that you, the thing that hurts Connor, at least in the first half of the season while Kyler's still healthy is that Kyler is going to run more inside the red zone. Connor really benefited from Kyler dealing with the injury last year where they were just like jamming him up to the middle, you know, when they would get inside the five. So that's just something to keep in mind with him. And then I think this game will be popular, but I'm not sure it will be as popular. Ron Dale Moore was going to be like a thousand percent owned. Yeah. So we'll see where it's sort of the dust settles once we figure out, you know,

who people even want to play. Yeah. I got to note, Jake Trivie had a great stat on Kyler. We haven't talked enough about Kyler here, but he tweeted out in the 10 games that Kyler has played with the total over 52, this overrunner is like 53 and a half. And in this 10 games that he's played in a total over 52, he's averaged, 28.2 draft king's points for games and 27 and a half fan dual points for game his worst game in that sample is 20.3. I mean, I know we just went through all the receiver injuries and

stuff, but like Kyler carries nuclear upside. And who do you think it's going to be more popular? Mahomes are Kyler. I feel like neither of them are going to be as popular as they should be. You think Hertz will just carry to most of it? He's definitely. going to be way highest owned. I think Kyler was going to be a lot higher owned than he will be because people were going to just play Kyler, Rondale, and Hollywood. But now I don't think people are going to be as excited to do that. It was going to be like Rondale, Hollywood, Kelsey, and, you know, Kyler stacks. So earlier in the week, I was thinking Kyler might be just as strong of a cash quarterback as Jalen Hurts.

I mean, losing Ron Dale probably hurts, but he's never really had great receivers to begin with. And, you know, Ertz's injury isn't great either. But if you look at his numbers, like he destroys early in the season. Over the past two years, his first three games, he averages like 35 fantasy points per game. And then week eight, he'll get hurt and he'll be a different player. But like prior to those injuries, he's averaging near. nearly 30 draft king's fantasy points per game. And this is like the perfect smash matchup. And so I'm not really going to write him up probably just because he's going to be so

chalky. But I mean, like, he's just an awesome play. So I guess the question is how chalky does he become? Dude, I think you should definitely write him up. I think he's an awesome, awesome play. Think of it this way. Like, okay, the chiefs come out and get up to a 10 point lead. like we want Kyler dropping back 45, 50 times so he can scramble.

Like if this game goes off, I mean, this is the two, this is by far the fastest game and combined pace and plays on this slate. Buck's Cowboys is actually a little faster, but on this slate, I mean, this is the game. So if Kyler's trailing and they end up having to run 70, 80 plays, like he's the nuts. Like, I think he's a phenomenal play. And I hope people play less of them because of all the receiver injuries. So, good call.

Anything else from this game? Did we talk through Clyde? I don't even know if he's really in play, but. Yeah, I think he's fine. I think, you know, if you, it would be interesting to do, like, Chief's defense with Clyde, you know, with how beat up the Cardinals are.

They've had some, Kyler's had some future games. Like, he's got it in him. Yeah. All right. We'll polish it off here. Last game, week one, guys,

Raiders, Chargers. Chargers are... Oh, can we carve out, like, I don't know if we're running the risk of going over time, so maybe Ben can shine in and chat. But I hope to do...

All right, never mind. Yeah, we're about... We have 15 minutes, and we're also free this week, so... Oh, right. ...it's all good, though. Good thought. We'll bring back the lineup build

behind the pay wall next week. But Raiders, Chargers, last game charges three and a half point favorites overrunners 52. Only injury note I have in this game is J.C. Jackson is not going to play for the Chargers, which is a little bit of a buzzkill for their defense. It's completely revamped. They got Clil Max, Sebastian Joseph Day. They added Kyle Van Nooy.

This defense is going to be much, much better this year, guys. But no JC Jackson, a little bit of a help for Adams and Renfro and all the Raiders, past catchers. I mean, listen, you guys know what the Chargers are. I mean, their top five in pace, top 12 and pass rate. Like, they're going to come out here and chuck it. I think there's a theory out there. And Scott, you've kind of talked about the Sioux.

I don't think you and I've talked about this. But like, Echler has been saying, like, I want less on my plate. And what if less on his plate means just more passing? Like, what if they just chuck it? And Josh Palmer becomes a full-time player. They just go 11 personnel and throw it like 75% of the time. Like, I think that's definitely within the range of outcomes here for these chargers. But this is a fun game, man.

Really fun game. Scott, I don't know if you want to get it started, but were you out with this game? Yeah, so it's going to be massively chalky. I wrote that up in 96 stats talking about how Eckler has said repeatedly. Tom Telespo said repeatedly, they want to reduce his workload. And as soon as I hit submit, I immediately regretted how I framed it. But yeah, I just have a hard time imagining they're going to take anything off of his plate, given how shitty all of the running backs are. And then a source reached out to me a couple days ago saying Sony Michelle looks like utter ass and he's still probably the second best running back. They're not taking anything off of his plate. I think Justin Herbert is an amazing play and a great matchup. I think the number one stack with him is Austin Eckler. I think a lot of people are going to play the wide receivers.

I would want to play. I think that's optimal and I think it's unique. And I think your boy, Josh Palmer, is another like pretty good low-owned GPP play, especially. especially in these stacks. And I think if you want to fade this game, which again should be very chalky, Josh Jacobs as like a slightly rich man's like Garrett Blunt makes a lot of sense.

I don't have any other takes, but Johnny's take on Gerald Everett makes sense to me. Yeah, I think, you know, Jacobs is going to get 18 plus touches. No one's going to play him. I don't know how one. Three touchdowns? Like that's possible. You're not at all concerned that they're going to play Abdullah in the passing down rule?

Yeah, they will. But they, I mean, they've always rotated in these guys. It was, who was that dude with the Raiders for like two years that would get all the passing work? I don't remember his name before Drake. No, the dude before him. He was like a little bit of a dino favorite, but he wasn't really anything. Yeah, I mean, they've always had those guys. But Jacobs is still going to catch balls on early downs.

He's a guy, though, that I probably like more in Ceylon. Yeah, Richard. Ben, he can do it. Ben, Benz are all over there. Yeah, so, you know, I think Abdullah will probably have, you know, a little more of a role than Richard had. But, you know, that guy was always there. And I don't think Zemir White really even exists yet. He sucks.

Zemir White sucks. Yeah. I mean, you know, they try to get a guy who could do everything. and he doesn't really do anything real exciting. But Jacobs is a guy I definitely like more in bestball, I think, than in, you know, week to week. But there's going to be weeks where he's going to score two rushing touchdowns, and, you know, you're going to want him to win. He's like a Henry type where if they're heavily favored, he's a great underrated DFS. He's going to be just like Damien Harris was last year.

You know, Harris, I believe, won the Millie three times, but there were other weeks where he'd score like four fantasy points. So just to keep that in mind. I do like this game, though. I think Carr is interesting. I think Herbert is interesting. I think the Raiders are going to be way better than people realize. I mean, they have real weapons. They have a real coach.

And I think they're, I think McDaniels is, like, ready to do this this time around. So I think I think I trust him to have a good team. You know, we see him leave the pitch. Patriots and they're like in shambles now. So I do like this. But if I'm if I'm stacking Herbert, I got to disagree with you, Scott. Echler, Echler likes to score those rushing touchdowns.

And they love to, they love to give him the ball at the goal line. I, like in my head, I think of Echler as a stack with Herbert. But I think the numbers show that he, when he has his huge games, Herbert doesn't. I think they could both have huge games, with like Echler scoring on the ground

and it's still being plus the EV where they're moving the chains, sustained drives, Red Zone drives. I can be negatively correlated in a game where it's like the Chargers just completely rent somebody. But this game, I mean, I'm with you. I think the Raiders keep it close.

Like, you could win this game. I think the problem is what they cost. You know, you're paying $8,500 for Echler and $7,600 for Herbert. That's fair. My favorite stack with Herbert will always be Mike Williams when he has those huge games. Herbert has those huge games.

I think the two weeks that Herbert won the Millie were the, like Williams two touchdown games. And he had that, yeah, the Raiders game where he went nine for 121. And he was like three percent owned. It was like we were playing him every week. Like he's going to come back. He's going to come back. And then like he finally did it.

So I think this is the week to play him, you know, before. Yeah. Yeah. And just looking through projected. ownership. I think right now, we'll see what it looks like over this weekend, but I think Chiefs Cardinals looks chalkier than this game. I want to mention Hunter Renfro, 5,800 on DK. He's there Julian Edible now, guys. He's going to have to play in 12 personnel, two tied-in sets. They're not going to play Matt Collins in that role. You know, I get it, charges are really tough against the slot, but I think Renfro, when they go into 12, he's going to play a ton. Don't forget about him in your game stacks, because, I mean, you can easily go out there and go 8 for 90.

Yeah, and I'm not sure Darren Waller is like a full-time player yet. I mean, he missed the entire install. Yeah, bro, he literally practiced like five times, I think, in August. Like, there's something out of water. Well, he wants a new contract and McDaniels wasn't really entertaining it. So he just like dipset. Yeah, I think that was some of them. I think he was hurt too, like legit hurt.

Anyway, guys, week one, let's go. Great show. I got to say here, this is the only week this season we're going to be free. So if you guys liked what you heard, what you've learned this week, make sure you subscribe to FantasyPoints.com. You want to use code Barfield 22, not Barfield 22. Listen, Barfield 22, it's the same amount of percentage off. You get 10% off, but we know who your favorite part is.

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for Johnny, for Ben Behind the Glass, I'm Graham. We'll catch you guys next week for caching points week two.