Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Week 1 Point Spread Podcast

Episode Date: September 10, 2022

Taken from the Week 1 Point Spread Livestream. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Feeling festive. Catch classic holiday favorites like Home Alone, the Santa Claus, and Die Hard, along with holiday episodes from Family Guy, Abbott Elementary, and more with Hulu on Disney Plus. From festive Disney Flicks to binge-worthy Hulu originals, Hulu on Disney Plus is your home for the holidays. Celebrate the season with Hulu, available on Disney Plus in Canada. What's up, folks? Welcome to the first edition of the Point Spread here at FantasyPoint.com.

hence point spread. I'm Joe, that's Tom. T-Bro, what's going on, man? We got games. Yeah, we got some games. Hopefully we get some competitive games after last night. That was a bit of a snoozer, but... Not for your room, mate.

Yeah, he was... The Bills fans in my life were pretty excited about last night's outcome there, but hopefully we get some better games. This is the time of year. You know, you look at the points spreads. They're all kind of tight. is a tough Survivor week. I don't know if you do any of the Survivor Joe.

Oh, Tom. All the line, you know, everything's seven or less right now. So it's a lot of like whole road favorites that are, which is the worst thing in Survivor. And by the way, you know, like, I always scoff at people who are like, like, oh, I stopped watching football and now my Sundays are free. Yeah, yeah, they're free to watch football. That's what they're for.

And, oh, you know, I. I don't play fantasy anymore. Let me tell you something. They might have a point on some level because quitting playing Survivor Pools was the greatest thing I've ever done. It just like, I just like, and the one I was in had like so many people. Well, here's the problem. So the pot was like 30 grand, okay? But it was impossible to win it.

So like even if you made the playoffs, they then went to you had to be a. You had to pick a winner ATS, which is obviously a lot harder to do. And then, even then, 15 people were splitting the pot at the end of the season. So I got out of it. And maybe that was just the sheer size of the pool. But I got the hell out of it. It's the best thing I've ever done. Anyway, how'd you do?

Honestly, the one I made is my uncle does it. And it's always like my Christmas gift. He pays for my entry. So I, and it's one of those where if you lose in the first three weeks, you can buy back in. And it's like, it's so tough to win. I've only made it to like, you know, week 11 or week 12. No luck. So, but maybe this is the year.

I'm going with the Saints. We'll see how that goes. But there's some decent options out there. But it's a tough week for Survivor. That's for sure. Yeah. How'd you do on the game last night? Three and O with player props, but total misread on the game itself there.

I was, I did not think the Rams would be that pathetic, honestly. obviously we saw, you know, no chemistry there with Stafford and Alan Robinson. You know, he's not a guy that separates at all. You got to kind of trust Alan Robinson. And the only time he really kind of threw him in coverage was that last play of the game in the end zone. That was about it. So it was pretty ugly. And then the whole Acres thing, holy man, it's not looking good for the Acres people.

You know, I started dabbling in Acres in Bestball at the end. Just like on the, you know, like sometimes you got to think, if you're doing a hundred-sum bestball teams, you got to say, hey, what if I'm wrong about this guy sometimes, right? And like, you don't want to be, but I have way more hendo than acres. So I'll, I'm like sitting 12% and 4% between hundreds and an acre. So it feels pretty good. I draft the acres a little bit in the spring and then I just completely got off of them. The hope, I would think the hope is like that whatever injury he had like kind of during camp was

bothering him vis-vis the Achilles. But, I mean, when you see how he looked in the playoffs last year, I mean... Yeah, it looked the same. They're even like that first carry of the game. It looked like there was a hole there. And then Ed Oliver just swallowed him up. He had no juice to get through it. So it even seemed like Kieran Williams, I think, was supposed to have a role.

I think he was going to take the snaps last night from Camakers. I was watching NFL live. Adam Schaefter not so subtly is like, keep an eye out for Kieran. Williams tonight and I think he was supposed to be the passing back there. I said that in our staff death discord this morning. Yeah, I saw you say that this morning. When I was writing the script for the daily lineup, I'm like, oh, Williams got hurt. I was like, what happened with staff?

Yeah, because Schfter had said it. And. Because I don't know if you noticed in our collegiate. Like, I picked him up. Oh, yeah, because I was going to pick him up. And you asshole, but now he's out for two months. Yeah, now he's out for six to eight weeks. Yeah, so the thing was I, I posited, and there's no way for me to prove this, but I'm not sure Acres would have played a snap if Kyron Williams didn't get hurt.

I'm kind of in your camp there. Maybe he would have gotten a carrier too, but yeah, I mean, he was only 18% of the snaps anyway, Henderson. But anyway, we digress. Yeah, let's get into the games this weekend. Now, folks, just because I'm trying to, you know, be as accurate as I possible. I'm using draft king's sports book, but obviously we have the odds board, which is free up at fantasy points.com.

where you can get all the over-unders, all the point spreads where you can shop around and find your best line. Tom, let's start with Baltimore at the Jets. Baltimore laying six and a half. 44 is the total here. Baltimore and the Jets, a couple of injuries. I think some of the key ones are on the offensive line. Baltimore will not have Ronnie Stanley most likely. The Jets are down to their third left tackle, which is George Fant, who was their left tackle.

Then he was their right tackle. Now he's back to left tackle. They could be starting a rookie at right tackle. 44 the total in this game. Do you have a read on Baltimore at the Jets? Yeah, I kind of wish I would have gotten some seven-a-halfs with the Jets. They pop for a little bit earlier in the week, but they're kind of gone now. I think the market feels, at least I do too.

I feel better with Joe Flacco in the lineup here. You know, I don't think it's a dramatic shift, but I think they're half a point to a point better with Joe Flacco. Flacco here. So seven and a halfs, those are all gone. You know, there's not even any sevens left out there anymore. But I still, I'm still leaning towards the jet side in this game. I think they're going to be more competitive with Joe Flacco in the lineup. And I honestly have some questions about what this Ravens offense is going to look like. No Marquis Brown anymore. The, you know, pretty thin at receiver. And the running back, you know, running back position is very much up in the air.

They're saying, they're talking like Dobbins might be available. But, you know, we're not expecting. luck. Yeah, I mean, Lamar Jackson even said it this week. You know, maybe in a few weeks he'll be able to, you know, contribute. He'll be out there in a couple of weeks or something. Yeah, that's what he said. Yeah. So, Tom was given some state secrets there, I think. Any props that you like, now here's what's interesting. Obviously, there's no rushing props for Baltimore. They have Michael Carter at 33 and a half, Breece Hall at 31 and a half. You could, well, you could pay me to put money down on one of these because I'd take the money you paid me with and put it down on one of these. I have no freaking clue what to do with the Jets backfield.

Yeah, it's a complete stayaway situation for me. I think, you know, they're both set pretty low. I would expect one of those backs to go over that number. But I don't know how they're going to split it up. They were receiving, I believe Robert Sala today was, you know, talking up Michael Carter. So it kind of feels like they're going to go in with Michael Carter maybe, you know, 60, 40 early in the season here while they let Breece Hall kind of get his feet wet. But so I'm with you.

I wouldn't touch those props. The one I did bet was Eli Moore over 52 and a half. Okay. Bouncing around. I'm showing a 51 and a half, but it's in that range. Yeah, I think it started out 48.5 and got bet up a little bit. But I just feel a lot better with Joe Flacco in the lineup. Everything out of camp was that Elon Moore was lightened up and, you know,

performing pretty well. And he was kind of go-to receiver for the quarter. backs. And one game with Flacco last year, he went for 140 yards in that game. So seven point underdogs at home. So if they do fall behind, they might have to throw it a little bit. So like Elijah Moore, I'm playing them in all my lineups. And I like them over 52.5. Let's go to San Francisco at the Bears. Tom, one of those long road favorites that you were talking about. San Fran is laying seven in Chicago, 40 and a half the total. Ray Lance versus Justin Fields, good luck getting me to bet on this spread.

I mean, I mean, I guess if I had a personal lien and if I was in an office pool, I'm probably taking the Niners just because I think the defensive line can overpower Chicago's offensive line, but probably not something that I'm willing to put actual money on. Maybe you think differently. No, I'm on the 49er side as well, minus six and a half. I did not bet this game. Now, this is one I want to kind of see how. both quarterbacks kind of perform here.

This is a total that's been bet down, though. I'm seeing a couple 40s out there. It opened 42, so it's the lowest total on the board. Go ahead. If guys, if you're new to sports betting or new to the show or new to this, whatever, when we say office pool, it means like if you're against the spread pool, like you and I are Tom with Big Ed,

you have to pick every game, okay, because it's part of the pool. but when we say I'm on that side, but I'm not betting it, means that's my lean, but I don't feel good enough about it to put actual money down on it. Meanwhile, anything under, well, I would say anything like 42 points and under in the NFL is a low total. Anything under 40 is like tough, good luck having fun watching this game total. Yeah, the over under for the passing yardage is, you know, as low as I've seen in a while

for both sides. 198 and a half for Justin Fields and 204 and a half for Trey Lance and, you know, of course we've lost George Kittle. I don't, did he get officially rolled out? He's questionable. Here is what he literally just said.

And this is why I hate Friday's during the season, Tom, because I'm always trying to, trying to go out and enjoy a Friday night and have a date night with my wife. George Kittle, yesterday, Aaron Wilson's like, oh, my God, this guy's dead. And now today he's ruled as questionable. And he says, oh, I feel a lot better.

I'm going to try everything I can to play. Do I expect George Kiddell to play? No, I don't. But now, I think if this was like later in the season, maybe we see a play, but it's, it's week one. I don't see them being on a whole rush to play of here. It's a, it's an opponent, you know, not that any team thinks this way, but it's an opponent that they think that they can, you know, they can go into Chicago and win this game. So I would be kind of surprised if he was playing. You know, if you're doing fantasy, obviously, have a backup plan there. So the one bet, I think I'm kind of kicking myself. I believe Graham gave it out in the Discord earlier this week was Debo Samuel.

I think he got it at 48.5. It's all the way up to 58 and a half with the George Kittle News. You know, that picked up a lot of steam. Miss my operative, you know, I'm one of those guys. You're probably the same way, Joe. Like if you see a huge line movement, I still, I was thinking about betting it, but especially like a 10-yard movement. I mean, that's a whole reception there.

You know, that's a half a reception for Debo Samuel, but you know what I mean. That's, I would be kicked myself if it lands in that 54 to 55 spot where, you know, I could have had it whenever it was down at 48 or 52. So my opportunity passed there. The one I got early in the week, I've hit Eli Mitchell over 64 and a half. crushed in this matchup last year. And as we said at the top here, we're not expecting a lot passing in this game. And the way Sainahan has, you know, always used Mitchell when he's healthy.

He feeds him the rock. So he was, I don't think he had an injury designation this week. He's been practicing in full, you know, he had the hamstring issue for a bunch of training camp. But that one got bet down almost immediately after I bet it. I was kicking myself. It got down to 59.5. It's coming all the way back. It's up to 62 and a half at Draft Kings here. I think it's going to get back up to the 64.5 mark from where it kind of started the week. But it always pains you whenever you bet a prop, you think it's a good one, and you see it go down by five yards. But slowly that the overmoney is starting to come back on Eli Mitchell here. And that's how they obviously work the props. If they're getting a lot of, if they're getting a lot of over money,

they'll move it back up, right, and try to get it to go back down. And then, you know, then they... That was a lot of the talk last night. Even Edwin and our Discord, our personal, our company Discord, was asking, what was going on with the Allen Robinson prop? It was at 64 and a half. It went down all the way to 58.5. And, you know, I told him it was probably a lot of sharp money.

We're betting the unders. And then I saw Caesars put out a tweet right before Kickoff that their most bet prop was, over 58 and a half yards for Alan Robinson. So I hope anybody was listening here didn't bet that one. Good to see the little guy win for once, Tom. Indianapolis at Houston. Colts, another one, Colts laying seven on the road. 46 is the total here.

Indy at Houston. Touchdown favorite on the road in division game. New quarterback. There's a lot going on here in this game. Yeah, this is an interesting. I think the Texans have gotten a little bit of love this week. I think there's a little bit of optimism for this offense. Just looking at the total, opened at 44.5.

So, you know, we've seen, you know, a point in a half to, you know, I've seen some 45 and a halfs. But for the most part, it's 46. So I think that was Texans driven. And the spread was at 8.5. It got bet down the 7th. So the Texans are getting a little bit of late love here this week. And I agree with it.

I like what I saw a lot of Davis Mills at the end of last year. Indianapolis, this is, it's been a tough spot for them in opening days here. I think it's going back like nine or ten years where they haven't, you know, I forget, I think they haven't won on opening day eight or nine years. It's some ridiculous stat. I had it somewhere, but they've really struggled opening day. Frank Reich's teams, even since he's come, you know, first month, they kind of start a lot of the gates. So it's been a tough spot for them. Breaking in a new quarterback as well

this week with Matt Ryan. We were expecting, obviously, to go better than it did with Carson Wenz. But obviously, there could be some growing pains there with Matt Ryan in the new offense. I'm actually not showing a Matt Ryan yardage prop, passing yardage prop on draft Kings, although I do have a pass plus rush yards prop on draft Kings for him. I can't imagine that's much different with Matt Ryan. Exactly. Anything you liked here in this game prop-wise, Jonathan Taylor 96 and a half. I mean, obvious, obvious spot for him. I have to imagine of the fantasy inclined among us,

the books are going to catch a lot of money on Damien Pierce over 47 and a half rushing yards. Yeah, his over had gotten hit pretty good. I believe it's like 49 and a half or somewhere in that range. But I didn't bet anything on this one. There was a couple that kind of caught my eye. Matt Ryan, his attempts were at 28.5. It was juiced to the over. It was like minus 130.

That kind of kept me off. Got up to 29 and a half, but, you know, it was even money on, you know, minus 115 on both sides. I think we haven't projected for 32. It's, they did a lot of talk in this summer about how they want to be more of a past, not a past first offense, but they want to be more balanced. You know, last year they were trying to hide Carson Wentz at the end of last year. I think they could come out and maybe, you know, slugging around a little bit more than,

you know, we saw at the end of last year, you know, I don't think they want to, you know, run Jonathan Taylor 25 times a game here right out of the gates as well. It's one of those they want to preserve Jonathan Taylor. So that was one that kind of caught my eye. You know, them being seven point favorites kind of kept me away from that a little bit too. If they get out to a two touchdown lead, they can really pack it in and start to run the ball. So if it gets back to 28 and a half and it's kind of even money on both sides, I can see myself betting that one. The other one that caught my eye, I didn't bet it. It's been bet up a little bit. It was 18 and a half yards for Jonathan Taylor's longest rush yard, longest rushing game. I think he went over it in 14 or 15 of his games last year. So it's been bet up a little bit. It's 19.5.

But I'm going to keep my eye on that one as well. Those were two I was looking at but didn't quite get to the window. Yeah, one of my favorite, excuse me, Tom, one of my favorite prop bets is one that hit last night, Josh Allen over 37 and a half long as past. So that was one of the two props. I was 2 and 0 last night, and that was one of the ones that hit. That was pretty easy.

Yeah, I also had the Devon Singletary under two and a half catches. And he caught a pass on like the third play in the game. And I was on that one as well. I couldn't believe it was two and a half. And he caught the first pass on like mother trucker. Here we go. He's getting it. Philadelphia at Detroit.

Eagles laying four and a half on the highway. 48 and the hook is the total, Tom. Philadelphia at Detroit. This is a spot. The Eagles absolutely smoked them last year. Detroit's got some problems on the offensive line. They just put Halapulavati-Baitai on IR with a back injury. And Frank Ragnow, the center, Tom, he's got a groin injury.

Now, he wants to play. But as good as this offensive line is, and as theoretically talented as this offensive line is getting all five of them together is like getting the Beatles back together. Yeah, this is we've seen the line move. little bit. I grabbed this four and a half back in the early spring when the lines first came out and it got bet down. It was sitting three and a half for most of this week at most places. And I think it probably is the offensive line concerns here. It has been back up to four and a half. It's pretty much four and a half across the board. There's been a, sorry, I, I had a pretty severe head cold

earlier this week. It was not COVID. Tested myself twice for it. So if anybody's watching the video here, I'm coughing like a theme here, trying to mute myself. But we have seen some over money here. It's up to 48.5. I still kind of like the over 48 and a half.

I think there could be some fireworks here. I think the Eagles want to come out and show off their new toy with A.J. Brown, that was one of my props that they hit. It was over 65 and a half passing yards for him. I mean, when he was healthy last year, that was a pretty easy number for him to hit. It just wasn't always healthy last year.

But coming into the first game of the year, you think those knees are going to be as good as they're going to be. So we have him projected for 79 yards. Blines got torched in the secondary last year. Still a pretty big weakness for them as well. So that's one prop that I was looking at in this game. Well, you know, Tom, I'm also wondering here because I'm looking at AJ, B and his line and obviously the hype that he's getting, Devante Smith sitting down there at 44 and a half.

That one's, I feel like both of those guys can hit that number. AJ Brown over the 64.5, Devante Smith, 44 and a half. You know, we did hear some reports there from campus. There were times when Devante Smith looked uncoverable. Yeah, I would lean towards overs on their props. I was looking Jalen Hertz, 47 and a half rushing yards. I was considering betting the under on that. But, you know, he's the kind of guy.

He just gets one low run. He could easily get that. But I think they're going to come out really trying to establish the past. We saw this last year with him. First five or six games last year. They really came out and were throwing the ball quite a bit. And they kind of made the switch. It was right around this Lions game, I believe, last year,

where they really made the switch over to be a run-heavy team. So I think they're going to come out again this year and really be throwing the ball. I would be looking at his over for passing yards and maybe looking at the unders for his rushing props. Let's go to Jacksonville and the commanders. Jacksonville catching two and a half on the road, 44 the total.

Sprinkle me on that Jacksonville money line, T, bro. Doug Peterson revenge game against Carson Wins. Yeah, it's a bit of a revenge game for Wents as well. Oh, yeah, the Jaguars. Yeah, because he, I blew it pretty bad in the season finale with the Colts going down to Jacksonville. I think they were 14 and a half, 15-point underdogs in that game and ended up losing. So we got a couple revenge spots here going.

But the line movement, I think it was correct earlier this week. It was sitting three and a half all summer. I was looking at the Jaguars myself. I did not hit it and my chances are gone now. it's been it's painted two and a half across the board. This is another one that has a pretty low total if I were, if I remember correctly here. So I'm not expecting a whole lot of offense.

Yeah, 44. It opened up 44.5. So there are some 43.5. So there's been some, at least a little bit of downward betting here towards the under. But quite honestly, this is a game. I'm pretty much kind of staying away from. I mean, two completely new situations, right? I mean, Washington's got the same coaching staff, but a new quarterback.

Jacksonville, Jacksonville wasn't a real football team for most of last season. So I don't know how you can, I totally agree with you, Tom. I did hit one. I did forget. I did hit Evan Ingram over 24 and a half passing. I receiving your, I just thought that line was set pretty low. I kind of think, well, with Evan Ingram, that could be, that could, might have to be four catches, but. Yeah.

Yeah. But I think he's four catches, which takes 10 targets for Evan Ingram. Yeah. But I think he's going to be heavily, you know, he was one of their big acquisitions this year. They gave $9 million in free agency. So I see him playing a pretty big role right out of the gates. And I just thought the number was too low. I thought it was going to be high 20. Well, keep in mind also, about five yards off. Washington's down starting safety, Cam Curl. Cameron Curl's not playing in this game. He's one of the most versatile safeties in the league. So that's obviously a blow over the middle of the field. So in the event, you know, God help Evan Ingram.

I mean, he could be wide open and the ball hit the turf. But, you know, maybe a fresh start helps Evan Ingram there. But, Tom, you're 100% right. This is a watch it and see it game for me. I want to, I mean, I only jokingly said Jaguar's money line. I'm not actually betting it. But a betting against. Yeah, even the most of the props.

You know, I was thinking about doing some unders on Marvin Jones because it, you know, It kind of seems like they want Zay Jones to be, you know, elevated over him. But it's one of those, you know, Lawrence has at least played with Marvin Jones last year. So he has a little bit of chemistry. So, yeah, there's just not a whole lot I'm interested here. I was looking at Gibson maybe over, but I can't. I'm not betting Antonio Gibson over 58 and a half, man. No, with how they feel about him.

I think it's a good spot, but I just can't. Oh, fully Fadikasi, the defensive lineman for the Jags, is questionable. and he's a great run defender. So that's one that could, you know, if you do like that over there for Antonio Gibson. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, Tom, it's your Steeze. For the first time since I was taking the closet doors off of my dorm room to build a beer pong table that somebody other than Ben Rufflesberger is the quarterback of the Pittsburgh Steelers. That was my freshman year at Penn State.

Tommy Maddox. Tommy, and he got hurt in week one. Yes, he did. Did Maddox. Yeah, 15 games later, Ben was the guy. Yep, so six and a half, the Steelers are catching six in the hook. 44 the total. I can't tell you the last time the Bengals were six and a half point favorites against Steelers,

but it is a new era. It is. I'm not wishing injury upon Mitch Trubisky, but I also wouldn't mind if we see a quarterback for a game, and then we get the rookie for the last 16 games now, not 15 anymore, but that's an aside there. But yeah, six and a half. I kind of, I'm leaning towards the Steelers side here.

I feel like people aren't, I don't know, I'm not talking about the burrow. He had a ruptured appendix. It's not just had his appendix removed. It was ruptured. Wow. Yeah, exactly. And he lost, you know, significant weight,

didn't really get any game action. You know, he returned to practice the last two weeks or so. But I just, I think it could be, One of those games were, they're looking to try to protect them a little bit. You know, T. Higgins, too. Out all summer. Just returned to practice this week. Didn't get any action in during training camp.

I now, I put the burrow under 2.16 a half. I was thinking about the T. Higgins stuff. I just, I just think they're going to be leaning on Joe Mixing. And they did that last year of these two matchups. They did not really attack the Steelers secondary. So this was a game they controlled on the ground in both of those matchups last year, too. So I kind of see that same kind of approach coming from the Bengals here. It's not comfortable taking unders on Joe Burrow passing yards, but I'm doing it.

Well, there might be some, I mean, obviously there's going to be Rams hot takes after last night. Maybe there'll be Bengals hot takes after week one, Dom, you know, oh, the Super Bowl hangover. You know, the thing about T. Higgins is I recall Alshon Jeffrey. Obviously, T. Higgins is at a different point of his career that Alshon Jeffrey was when Jeffrey was in Philadelphia. But Jeffrey played through a shoulder injury all the way up until the Super Bowl for Philly had the surgery really was never the same. Now, I'm not saying that's going to be the case for T. Higgins because Jeffrey actually missed a couple of games. And I can't, I don't know if the injuries are the same, but just keep in mind that that was a situation that we saw from Alshon Jeffrey. And remember, you know, you make the Super Bowl, all your surgeries are delayed by a month plus.

Yep, he didn't get the surgery to like March, I believe. So it was a pretty, it was a torn labor. I don't know what Alston Jeffries. I think Jeffries was a rotator cuff. Okay. So, yeah, rotating a little more. I know you're not, but I, you know, from baseball, rotator cuff injuries are a son of a gun to come back from.

Much more severe, yeah. Yeah, so I was looking at that. I just, I didn't see the props earlier. I was checked this afternoon. They're just starting to put some up, I guess because Deonté Johnson's going to play here. But I would love to bet his over if I knew he was completely healthy. Only 48 and a half yards.

I mean, that's why it's at 48 and a half. Now, I will say this. I mean, Edwin considers him more volatile, but he is not on the injury report. He does not have an injury designation. So he will play. Yeah, but that, yeah, that's just one of those, like, first contact he takes in that game.

I could, you know. And we have seen that from Deonti before. Exactly. I mean, I'll play them everywhere in fantasy where I got them. You know, I drafted them third, fourth round in most spots. I'll play them this week. He's able to go off in any spot. But I would love to hit this 48.5.

But I can't. What I'm looking at, I don't have the number. I don't have our projections or anything in front of us. But Chase Claypool at 43.5. I'm in the full fade Chase Claypool, you know, frame of mind here this summer. So I might go back and look at that one to see, see if there are any better numbers there. I might be betting the under on that one. I feel like the entire Steelers fan base is in Chase's Claypools, fade Chase Claypool Camp.

They want Dickens out there. Yeah, nobody likes them. Was it before the celebration or was that the turning point there? That was kind of the, it just all came to a head at that point. It was kind of the entire summer leading up to it. He did the Jordan deal, and, you know, he was doing the TikTok and all that crap that Juju was probably teaching him how to do. And he just became a little too individual.

And, yeah, he quickly became one of the top enemies for Steelers fans. So I will just let people know. Those of you who have been watching the Daily lineup know that occasionally I have two little co-hosts here. Oh, where's Krimp? Well, that's Butterscotch right there. Hey, Krimp, where are you, honey? well, they're about to go nuts because their mother just got home. So not their physical mother.

We're mommy and daddy. But anyway, okay, New Orleans at Atlanta, Tom, you said this is your survivor pick. I tend to think, and I think you might agree, I don't know where all the Saints hype is coming from. Peter King picked them to win or at least be the number one seed in the NFC. But I think Atlanta is on the same. the short list to be the worst team in football. That's tough. That's kind of why I took them. The Saints are laying five and a half on the road, 43 is the total Saints in Atlanta.

And this has been interesting. It's first, you're right, there has been some hype for the Saints this off season. No buzz around the Falcons at all this year. This line is to stay right at five and a half. I mean, we got a key number at six to sit in there. It hasn't even, I don't even know if it's touch six uh you know i i check these pretty you know multiple times a day you know i'm checking the checking the lines i i don't think i've seen a six all week so um it opened opened it five and a half and it is just open three and a half which was a bad line i wish i would have got that's a bad that sometimes they sometimes vegas does just put out a bad line tom but yeah it's it's been sitting five and a half all summer here and there is you know it's minus one 15 at the minus five

and a half. Maybe maybe some public money comes in on Sunday and actually moves the line. Don't, you know, it seems like I don't have the ticket numbers, but I have to imagine. It's probably like an 80, 20 split, you know, for Saints money compared to, compared to Falcons money. But this one, I took Cordero Patterson under his rushing yards. It was 37 and a half when it first came out. Now it's down to 30 and a half. Oh, my. It was a bad number. I jumped on that one.

I think he had 21 combined yards in the two games against the Saints last year, 13 carries. A lot of talking about Damien Williams, by the way, being potentially the lead back. It seems like they're going to kind of use him more in a passing situation. You know, he's going to get his share carries, but I would be surprised if he hits double digits in many games this year. He's probably going to be in that like 68 care,

six to eight carry range probably this season. So that's going to be tough to get up over 37.5. 30 and a half, I probably, yeah, I would still lean toward the under, but I think it's probably a stay-in-with at this point. Let's go now, Tom, to New England and Miami. Miami laying three and a half at home, 46 and a half, the total here.

New offense for Miami, new, offense for the Patriots, whatever the hell that's supposed to be. I, Tom, I have no idea what to do with this game. Yeah, I was leaning towards the Dolphins last week when it was at two and a half. Those numbers got quickly bet up. We got three and a halfs across the board this week. It looks like there's even, it looks like there are, you know, we have minus one 15 at Draft Kings on the three and a half.

toward the Patriots. Fandol has the same thing. So there's starting to be some resistance from the Patriots side. Three is such a key number. We got a low total in this game. I kind of, it's one of those games. I think it's going to be a three-point game. You know, I think the Dolphins probably win by three points. So I probably would side on the Patriots side here,

getting plus three and a half. But I have no confidence. I mean, as you said, Joe, Patriots offense. with Joe Judge and Maddie Patty, calling the plays, looked like, I mean, it was, the beat reporters were just having a good old time, you know, just beating up on the,

yeah, because we follow the reports during training camp. It's always usually glowing. It's, you know, this guy's spectacular, well, and the Patriots camp, I mean, it was all doom and gloom, all camps. So, there's not great vibes there, but, two, I think, I still trust Bill Belichick against Mike McDaniel at the end of the day here. First game. He's had a, you know, they've been probably prepared for all summer. I like the fact that they did go down early to Miami to get acclimated to the heat.

They've been down there since Tuesday. So don't feel great about it, but I'm on the Patriots side with the three and a half. Getting a hook. Any props you like here? I did take Micahisicki under. 32 and a half yards. I think it has been bet down since 30 and a half now, yeah.

Yeah, it did get some downward action on it. Just very questionable what his role is going to be. Dorm Smyth might be kind of splitting the snaps with him. Hunter Long still in the mix here. Last year, we all know, he was basically a glorified slot receiver. But they were trying to play him in line

this training camp and in preseason, we'll see how it goes. It's not a position that he's basically played, even though he's listed as a tight end. It's not the place where he's played. So there was even talk that they were looking to trade him during the training camp there. So just a very questionable role right now. And I went back through the game logs because last year he had the first game of the year. He didn't even have a catch. I remember one of the patented Mikeosicki no-shows. Went back and looked. His best game he's ever had against the Patriots,

34 yards in seven tries, and he's been under 30 or under, 30 or fewer yards in six of his seven career games against Bill Belichick and the Patriots. So I'm not, I'm not, with everything going against him here, I could only look at unders. I mean, you could probably take this number

down to 28 and half. I would probably, you're 26. Yeah, I'm looking at under all day for Mike of Sicki. Cleveland at Carolina, it's a pick-em. Baker-Mayfield revenge game, Brown's revenge game against Baker-Mayfield. Pick-em, 42 is the total. Cleveland at Carolina, the Baker-Mayfield v. Jacoby Brissette Bowl. Yeah, I actually jumped in on this one.

The Fandall, this line has been, it's been ping pong in all summer long. They opened up basically three and a half point favorites. That was when the Watson stuff was still kind of up in the air. It moved all the way to the Panthers, laying two and a half, basically all last week, and then to the beginning of this week after the Baker Mayfield trade. Back to pick them. Fandals kind of like the lone outlier here, but they have plus one and a half on the board here. There's even a minus one and a half of the Panthers at bed MGM.

So there is a lot of volatility with this line. You don't see this very often with the NFL. So, you know, if there's any arbitrage players, I mean, you probably had your chances to, you know, get the, you know, get the three and a half points earlier in the summer with the Panthers and, you know, get the two and a half with the Browns. Try to middle. Yeah. So there's a couple, you know, maybe you did that or not. But I ended up grabbing the Panthers plus one and a half here. I think the Panthers should be, you know, short favor.

I thought the line was probably right. I think they have an underrated defense, by the way. I do too. They put a lot of effort into building that ever since Matt Rule got there, and I think it's starting to pay some dividends. And the numbers don't look great from last year, but I think it was a lot of it probably had to do with just how bad the offense was. They were, you know, three and outs, Sam Dornold throwing interceptions,

just putting the defense at bad spots. and, you know, you get in those kind of situations enough, your defense is going to break at some point. So I think this is going to be pretty far, you know, pretty big under here. The action's been that way. It's, it's, it's, this could be a bit of an ugly game, but, uh, I'm going to, I'm siding with the Baker Mayfield side here. I, I watched enough Jacoby Brissette last year.

I don't like what I saw, you know, at all. He's going to be in a better situation here. Offensive line. He's a guy that needs some time. I mean, he will have a better offensive line play in Cleveland, but I like getting me the plus one and a half with the Panthers now that's out there at Fendhal. Any props that you took in this game? No, this was one I kind of stayed away from.

Two brand new offense. Yeah, I just think about Chob maybe, but I'm not dying to go bet like an over 78.5 rushing Yarden's props. So, stayed away from that one. So, yeah, this is a game I just have. I'm on the side and I got the Panthers plus one. one and a half. We'll see where this line goes from here on out because it's, it's been an interesting ride with this one. Arizona's getting six at home against Kansas City,

54 of the total. How in the living hell are the, are the Cardinals this injured? It is unbelievable. Tom, I can't even keep up. I cannot keep up. It's ridiculous. I mean, this is the one week out of the season where the injury report is supposed to be pretty thin and it's ugly. I mean, there, has JJ Watt been ruled out? I know he was missing practice all week. We got Rondell Moore gets hurt last week. Zach Ertz is going to give it a try. A lot is questionable.

Pew is questionable. Now, Marcus Golden will play. I've got to go back and completely update our game hub. First and foremost, I am tired of Cliff Kingsborough. Oh, everybody's day-to-day. Shut the fuck. Like, seriously, but I mean, this line has moved in a massive way towards Kansas City. Yeah, this is one I was kind of leaning towards the Cardinal side before this week, even when it was at three and a half.

But these injuries, I mean, it might not be a fair fight here. So we got sixes pretty much across the board. Honestly, if we get like another big, you know, JJ Watts rolled out on Sunday or Zach Ertz has rolled out, I would not be surprised if this gets the seven. So I don't know if there's urgency to go bet it. You know, there's, there is a five and a half still out there. But I'd be keeping my eye on this one if you're looking about the Chiefs this weekend. I would not be surprised if this gets to six and a half, seven. Yeah, Tom, really the only props I see for Arizona are with Connor and Kyler Murray because everybody's questionable in their pet.

Now, Ron Dale Moore is out. He will not play in this game. Zach Ertz is questionable. they haven't put up a Hollywood brown prop because I think they want to see... Probably waiting on Earths, yeah. Or waiting on Earths. I mean, just an absolute, absolute disaster right here.

Yeah, I was looking at maybe betting his, Kyler's under, I think it was at $2.60.5. Last night when I was looking at it. Of course, my draft Kings is loading snow right now, but let's see here. Yeah, $2.95.5. That can't be right. That has to be the Homes line.

Anyway, oh shit, that's listed as Kyla Murray's number. God damn it, I need to log into my account. I'm showing 256 and a half. Okay. You might be looking at the past plus rush yards, Tom. Oh, yeah, maybe. Yeah, that's what I'm showing for Murray. Okay, yeah, that's probably true because I'm like, holy.

I was like, $2.95.5. I was thinking about the under a 260 and a half. Yeah. So I really don't have any action on the props in this one. Mahomes even said it this week. Like, fantasy owners are going to hate us. It's, you know, it's probably going to be a different receiver every week. Well, I don't want to confirm my priors before, like, an actual game because that would be stupid.

But we were, we had to be industry lowest on juju. And I mean, by far. And it was kind of that reason. Like, why would I take somebody in the fourth round when it's just as likely that somebody in the 10th round is going to leave the team in receiving. I mean, beyond Kelsey. Kelsey's obviously going to lead the team of receiving if he's healthy. But yeah, that's the way I looked at it. Plus the guy has bad knees. But yeah, Juju, that was the one, you know, one of the guys I have zero, zero of. Maybe he'll make us eat crow on that one. Look, I understand what he's looking at his number, Joe. Yeah.

Stitting 47 a half. I mean, there's not a whole lot of, a whole lot of confidence. You don't see many fourth or fifth round picks coming into week one with a 47 and a half as their receiving time. And by the way, bet down to 46 and a half where I'm seeing. it now. So there's there's money. There is under money on Juju. The Giants at the Titans, Tom, another one of those games. Titans are laying five and a half, which is always a disgusting number anyway. But 44 is the total. I have no idea what to do with this game. Not a clue. What the, in terms of the spread, forget about it. I don't know if you have a lean, but I looked at this and I was like, I did bet. This was one of the bets I made early the summer, early in the spring.

whenever they first released the numbers. I took six and a half. It was at six and a half at the time. Got that, you know, six is kind of a key number here for NFL. Got above that. It was a plus 100 as well. You caught the six and a half with the Giants.

Yes, I'm taking the six and a half with the Giants. But you're right. I don't have a great feel for this game. Giants were, you know, John Hansen does the Vives article. I mean, they were all over the map. It was like, oh, beginning of camp, They might be a bit of a juggernaut here.

Then, you know, Caleday, he's Goladay. He's, you know, a complete bum. But Cadarius Tony's in and out of practice. And now he's not even on the injury report this week. Sterling Shepherd, you know, resurrected from the dead is apparently going to play. He's going to play. Yeah. Oh, my God.

And it's the complete opposite vibes in Tennessee. We got Trelaw, Barks, can't even get first team snaps. Robert Woods. You know, he's been getting positive talk, but he's a 30-year-old coming off an ACL. Oh, thank God. It's ugly, but I ended up taking, I probably kind of like here, Austin Hooper over 22 and a half yards just because of the uncertainty at the wide receiver position right now for the Titans.

Positions kind of thinned out for the Titans as well over the off season. And from all accounts, it sounded like, you know, Hooper and Tannahill had a pretty good connection during camp. So over 22 and a half on that one. I literally just made a bet as you were talking. What one was that? Goladay under 33 and a half. Oh, God.

I might have to jump on that one as well. Yeah, I mean, like, Tom, if... That wasn't out earlier, but... If Tony plays and Shepard plays, are he even sure Ghaladay plays? I mean, he was a complete bump all offseason. Yeah, so... I mean, they might play him a little bit here to start a season.

That's what I'm saying. Like, I mean, obviously, I think he has to be active in order obviously you have to be active. So I don't know if it will scratch them. I hope not because I'm taking the under on the 33 and a half. Yeah, the numbers are interesting here. Yeah, Shepherds at 31 and a half. Cadarius Tony's at 39.

So yeah, there's some ugly numbers on this game. But yeah, I grabbed the Austin Hooper. I took a bad number on Daniel Jones rushing at 21.5. It got bet down a little bit. I believe it's at 19.5 now. I still like the prop, obviously. But kicking myself on that one.

That was one of the two that moved on me. a little bit, but I still like, he was running a lot at the beginning of last year, and then he got that real nasty concussion against the Cowboys when he was trying to get into the end zone and kind of stopped him from running so much. And of course, he gets the neck injury probably related to that hit that he took against the Cowboys. But we've seen in the past, you know, Brian Gable would use Josh Allen a little bit in the running game. So it took the over at 21 and a half.

I still like it at 19.5. All right, Tom. the Chargers are in L.A., but they are going to be playing a serious road game here because it is the Chargers hosting Chargers laying three and a half, 52 and a half to total. I don't know if you could bake in a home field advantage

in here for the Chargers because they sure should ain't going to have one because the Raiders are still have a base in L.A. Three and a half, 52 and a half to total. Any lead on the spread here, Tom? I kind of like the three and a half. getting three and a half with the Raiders. As you said, it's probably going to be more of a home crowd.

And there's been a lot of, Raiders have been getting crapped on for much of the summer here. But it's a bit of a top heavy roster, but this is as healthy as they're going to be. I kind of like it here, three and a half. And Chargers have some injury issues. JC Jackson's out of the lineup. Donald Parham's out. I thought there was another big injury or two. but so, you know, they basically get J.C. Jackson so he can defend Devante Adams,

so he can defend the top receivers for opposing teams. So that's kind of a big missing piece here right out of the gates for the Chargers. Yeah. You know, this is one I'm not going to bet, but, you know, office pole stuff plus three and a half. Give me that. Do you have a lean on the Devante Adams prop knowing J.C. Jackson's out? Seventy-half is that? I would probably go over, but this is, I'm not interesting. I kind of want to, there's been a lot of talk, you know, they're college teammates and they have a great connection, blah, blah, blah. I kind of want to see it play out for a game or two first before I jump on it.

So I would probably lean toward the over here with J.C. Jackson out, but I kind of want to see it in action first before I get involved on a prop. And if you've been following this show or just following my, I'm not a guy that gets involved with really high totals. There's a lot more, if anything, I would probably bet unders, you know, more often. When I actually get to the window on higher player prop totals, but not when I'm too interested on. Did you bet anything here, Tom? We're going to move on to the next game.

Yeah, we need to speed it up. I don't, I did not hit anything on this game. So we can go to the next one. And you're also coughing, so let, and we do it. Yeah, I'm dying, man. Green Bay at Minnesota. Packers laying one on the road, 46 and a half in the total. These two teams play some great games and some really weird games,

as you might expect from division rivals. Yeah, I'm leaning towards the Minnesota Vikings side on this one. This is a place where there actually is a home field advantage, probably one of the best home field advantages in football. New offense here. We're going to see it for the first time. There's definitely some concerns with Green Bay offensively. Did they officially roll out, Alan Lazard?

He was talking like he was talking like he might not play next week. He was talking about. Oh, yeah, he said he has to. He said you need to pray for him to play this week. So yeah, that doesn't look good. Yeah, so he's out. So we're down to Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins and Dobbs. We're, we're, we're rooting for that one.

But offensive, you know, they have a couple question marks on the offensive line. We'll see if Bacteara is able to play. Elmchton, Jenkins has hurt things. Jenkins as well. So there's just more question marks on the Packer's side. I kind of like getting a point in a half. I would take the money line here as well, obviously, if you're going to bet the plus one and a half.

So, yeah, that's the side I'm on in this game. Any props, Tom. I don't think so. Yeah, this was another one I didn't get involved in. You got a green base side. I'll probably take another look at it. I was interested. There was a Cobb line, 39 and a half.

I was going to take the under. It was kind of juiced towards the under. It was like minus 120, minus 125. So I wasn't too interested in laying a price at 39.5. But I'm going to keep my eye on that one. I might bet the under on that one. Randall Cobb's been a declining player for a while. Tampa Bay at Dallas, Tampa Bay laying two and a half,

50 and a half the total. The offensive lines are the story here. Both got both very banged up. Obviously, the interior of Tampa's offensive line. And then, of course, the left tackle fiasco for the Cowboys. Tampa laying the two and a half, Tom. This is one way for me, man. I can only look.

I mean, I know Tampa's had a, you know, chaotic summer here as well. No way I'm betting the Cowboys. Tyler Smith is going to slow down try on or, you know, whoever he's lined up, Shaq Barrett. Like, this could be kind of ugly for the Cowboys here. So I'm not looking to bet the Cowboys right now. Honestly, I would not be surprised if this line gets the three, although it is the Cowboys involved,

so they always get their fair share of money here. But I'm seeing a minus 115 at Draft Kings to the minus two and a half on the Buccaneers. So this is a line that could get to minus three. The props I bet on this one, I did take Dak Prescott over 36.5 passing attempts. Just thinking, if you think back to that game last year, they didn't even try to run the ball in this Buccaneers defensive front. I know, and Domic and Sue's gone, but listening to the pod last night with Greg and John and Adam Kaplan.

Kaplan was saying that Akeem Hicks, you know, looks prime for a big season. So they're going to be really good against the run again. So I'm looking over 36 and a half. I got that at plus 100. I think it's, you know, more like minus 115 now. And I got taught Dalton Schultz at the time was over four and a half at minus 110 of draft case. That one is pretty juiced up. this point. I think it's like minus 160 minus 170 at this point. Well, let's go. Let's go quick here,

Tom, and I'm going to tell you something. You want to talk about one-way games. There is no way on God's greener. I am taking the six and a half with the Seattle Seahawks. They're the only way I can bet this game. And I know they're at home. The only way I can bet this game is Denver. I know Pete wants to beat Russ's ass. He just doesn't have the team to do. Yeah, I'm leading Seattle side here. This is just office pole play. I think Seattle's, there was an interesting article a lot about this, you know,

about kind of the fractured relationship. I don't think nobody liked them up in Seattle. I don't blame Pete Carroll at all. I get the notion that Pete Carroll should be canonized for dealing with Russell Wilson for 10 years. But, you know, let's ride. That's right.

That's right. I do, I mean, I don't doubt that Russell Wilson is incredibly competitive. So, oh, God, he is freaking obnoxious. Yeah, so the one bet I did make on this game, I did take Cortland Sutton over 55 and a half. I think we haven't projected for 80. Love that one.

I also took the under. I took a shit number, though. Worst bet of the freaking week. Took it under 42 and a half. 43 is a key number. There was a lot of action to the over here. It's up to 44, 44 and a half. It's over you look.

I still love the under here. I'm not going to bet it again. just because it's at a better number. But I just, we saw what they, how they played with Gino Smith last year. It was real slow, deliberate. Say what you want about Gino Smith, but he's not going to put the ball in harm's way. He's going to, you know, low A-DOT throws. So I think they're going to try to make that.

That's why I kind of like the Seahawks side, getting six and a half. It's not that I like the Seahawks, but I think they're going to try to dirty it up as much as they can. and this is a new Denver offense. We'll see if they're firing right away. But Hackett comes from the Packers. They were ran at the slowest pace last year. So I think there's some factors here that point this game towards the underfoot. Tom, don't get me wrong.

I will be rooting for the Seahawks on Monday night. As just like as a fan of football, I just don't see it happening. But if it does, I will be laughing my ass off. It will be hilarious. T-Bro, it was great. Go rest your voice. Go have a beer. That's how you cure those things, you know?

Yeah, I was instead of tea and honey, I'm going to grab a Pilsner or something. Yeah, that's exactly right. Thanks, everybody. Thanks, Sean, for producing this. Go catch the college football tailgate show. Fantasy Points is just around the clock. Catch you, everybody. Tom and I'll talk to you Sunday morning, and we'll see you next week on the points spread.