Fantasy Football Daily - 2022 Week 2 Plugged In

Episode Date: September 14, 2022

Taken from the Week 2 Plugged In livestream with Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) and Jordan Tohline (@JMToWin). --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What is going on Fantasy Fam? Welcome to the week one, the first ever, the week two, first ever edition of Plugged In. I am your host, J.M. To Win. I'm here with my very special guest, who's not really a guest because it's his site, Scott Barrett. Scott, how are you doing, man? It's good to be hanging out again. I'm doing good. Yeah. I told you last week, like, I just missed you. I'm excited to hang out and catch up and talk ball. Yeah, I'm excited to be doing a video this year in the past, as we've mentioned. It's been you and me on air with each other, but we just do it in podcast form. So now you guys can watch our faces in little boxes, as Scott and I joke around. I did have my hat on backward earlier to match Scott. We got our black hats on backwards. We've got our good

facial hair. I've got the dad facial hair. Scott's got the hot single guy or or girl. girlfriend guy, facial hair. So yeah, I think we're all, we're all playing our roles. We're all ready to go. So Scott, I have a good intro for this for this show. You ready? I'm going to introduce the episode. You're going to like this. Okay. All right. So over time, edges go away and they become things that are necessary to do. So six, seven years ago, eight years ago in DFS, you could just know who the good plays were better than everybody else. That could be your edge. Eventually, everybody started to know who the good plays were.

That didn't mean that you no longer needed to know who the good plays were. It just meant that you had to have that information to stay level with the field. Then other things came to play, whether it was correlation or whatever else, that for a while they were the big edges, and then everybody kind of started catching up with them. So right now, this show is a must listen for DFS, for fantasy, because we get to talk to Scott early in the week, and what better way to get ourselves, kind of get our feet under it and get prepared.

So eventually, this show will reach a point where it's something that you need to watch just like knowing who the good plays are, just like correlation. But for now, it is still an edge because for now, not as many people know about it. So for now, we get to pick Scott's brain and have this edge.

Scott, what do you think about that? That was pretty good, wasn't it? That was really good, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I, you know, this is the only show I do that's with somebody else where I'm the host instead of the guest. So I have to be a little bit more prepared. When you're the guest, you're already prepared because we do this for a living.

Just show up and talk about whatever they throw at you. So I wanted to come with a special intro for today. So in the past, we called this the DFS recap pod, which is just kind of a name that was slapped onto the show. And early on, that wasn't really our focus on the show. But it was over time, people were coming and pressing play. on it because it's a DFS recap pod. And then they'd be like, well, where's the DFS recap? And so we kind of started adjusting the show a little bit to account for that. But we changed the name. We're plugged in now.

And what we're going to do is basically take a look at a couple things throughout the week. Now, we're always going to talk DFS theory because I'm on this show and Scott's on this show. And that's a big part of succeeding in DFS. But we also want to, this is a Tuesday podcast. I think that one of the big values we can get at this point in the week is really getting our feet under us with what's going on in different situations across the NFL. So I'll say it like this. The people who know the NFL really well are always going to lose in DFS overtime to the people who don't know the NFL well, but know DFS strategy and theory really well. But if you know the NFL really well and can apply it through DFS strategy and theory, you're kind of at the top of that pinnacle. And so,

We obviously will, I'll keep talking about DFS strategy and theory throughout this. That's obviously what we focus on a lot at one week's season. But we want to make sure that we're building people who have a sharp understanding of the NFL as a whole. And so we're going to be focusing kind of on that. So today's show, we're going to talk through some stuff from week one. We'll tie it into sort of what week two looks like. And then at the end of the show, I want to kind of look at our DFS weekend from this last weekend. And I wanted to shift that to the back of the show because if you put it at the front of the show,

we kind of end up with this emphasis on results in DFS, whereas, what we really should be talking about is what our rosters look like and whether or not we think those rosters would have been profitable over time. It's fine to have a bad weekend where you say, you come up the weekend and you're like, yeah, I lost and I should have done this better with this roster. So like if we if we have time at the end and get to get to our DFS rosters, I actually, I built three rosters this last week.

My one that did the worst was my best roster. And my two that fell just outside the money were my lesser rosters in terms of what would have made the most money over time. And so we'll kind of be able to focus on that at the end of the show. But at the top, I want to talk about. some of these situations and it's this is kind of a longer time that scott were making you sit there and just stare at me but this is just for the listeners at home or tuning in for the first time this is what we do like we've said multiple times like there should be a better back back in between but no no neither of us are like that

we just like dominating airtime so like you get 20 minutes I get 20 but for some reason it works well and we're both a little bit like trump-esque slash Kanye-esque in the way our minds work when we start talking like we'll be on a path and they're like oh and plus this over here plus this over here and then we tie it all back in although those two don't necessarily always tie it back in you're just like lateral thinkers where are they going but we we're like okay let's take all these rabbit trails then we tie it all back into the main subject which takes a little bit of time because we're both fiction readers you know and that's that's good uh good fiction writing right there so but yeah so this week I think it's really important week to talk about some of these situations and I have a whole list that we're going to try to get to

but I'll put it like this in Mike Johnson, who's one of our top DFS players at OWS, one of our top trainers in DFS. And he was talking week one about how lines historically are least efficient in week one because there's just so much we don't know. There's so much we're assuming. And yet the DFS community treats those lines as being super efficient because that's what they're used to doing. So if you're loading up on a game with a low total, people are like, what is this person doing, attacking this game, whereas realistically lines are going to be less efficient. That's the same thing with players, right? And so when we come off of week one, people are very binary and they're thinking. They're either all the way to the left or all

the way to the right in the way that they see things and process information. And so when we come off of week one, it's easy to either overreact to everything or under react to everything, especially underreacting if it's a player that you've held strong beliefs on throughout the summer. and week one didn't look the way that you wanted it to look. And then you're like, well, that's okay, that's okay. This is just one week. Maybe it's not. If you're in season long, maybe it's not just one week,

and you can convince your league mates that's just one week and still unload this guy instead of holding on to him and being scared that you're going to miss out on the big season that you expected. And so if we can basically look at these situations through a more nuanced lens and say, where do these fall on the spectrum? Should we be reacting all the way to this side or to this side or somewhere in the middle? we can have a clearer understanding of how we should handle these players moving forward in week two of DFS in week two of our season long leagues and trades and waivers and so on and so forth.

So Scott, anything you want to add to that before we jump into the first situation, anything you want to say, you want to tell the people how much you love me, anything like that. Yeah, so I do want to talk a little bit about week one. And I've said in the past, like, the first four weeks are sort of shaky. you know, I really feel like I do better, you know, once we have some fresh data to analyze and interpret and an act upon. And I just like don't know that that's the case because I think we had a massive edge in week one. I felt that way heading into the week and I feel that way after. And I think that's because like legitimately we're spending year round covering the NFL.

I think we're one of the best year round NFL coverage sites or we are the best. We are the best. And so like I thought we had a great edge. I thought we were on top of some things that a lot of other people missed. And I listened to a live stream podcast with one of the unanimous 10 best, most profitable DFS players in the game. And it was really bad. It was just like really, it was like, oh, Michael Pittman, people are going to play him. Matt Ryan stinks. So what are you talking? And it's just like, it was legitimately horrible. And I like sent it over to Johnny. And I was just like, how is this how is this possible? He's like, bro. It's because it's because of theory, bro. Like, you know, he's sick at theory. And like that's more important. Like five years ago, four years ago, three years ago, like just being an NFL expert gives you this massive edge and you can just rate. Now it's kind of like the tables of turn because people are so good at analyzing the NFL. And it's also like high like high high high.

volatile sport that like theory experts can just clean up despite not really knowing too much about football or having bad tapes. And so I spent a lot of time this offseason trying to brush up my theory game. That's what this show is for for us to talk and chat about theory. But yeah, I mean, that's William doing a siren in the background. I'll start reading my mic while you're talking. I was wondering what was going on there. And yeah, so week one, I thought there were very few surprises. I thought if you watched our live stream, if you read my article, you could have easily landed on the nuts of all nuts.

You could have had Jaylen Hurd, Sequin Barkley, Antonio Gibson, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Jahan Dodson, Greg Dorch, Travis Kelsey. And then boom, you just made all of the money. And so that's possible. But I mean, I don't know what, what I, I, I, I, I, I don't know what, I, I, I, I went, I went light this week for health reasons, had a, uh, uh, bubbled by 1.7 points in the spy. And I, I played a bunch of the $5 million. All those lineups got absolutely hammered, uh, because I just like tried to do what I thought was like the best contrarian strategy.

It was like, all right, who is like the worst person to play this week? Okay, Mac Jones and no one's going to have it. So like, let me make some Mac Jones lineups, whatever. But anyway, still working on, I bubbled by 1.7 points, whatever it was, with a flacco to Elijah team. But yeah, I mean, we'll get to that later. Let's dive into the week one recap. And how do you recap a week one?

to me it's just it's confirmation bias season like i i i feel really good about my offseason takes i mean those took months and months to assemble and so like there it's very rare i'm going to like just totally walk back on on a guy cam acres yeah he was my number one fade of the off season darrell henderson one of my highest own running backs of the off season i check that confirmation bias my my priors are confirmed uh uh carson wents he was was the QB3 of the week. Yeah, I'm just going to assume that that's going to be his season high all year, and that was, that was just pretty, pretty random. Curtis Samuel, I mean, the guy gets 14 targets, including plays negated due to penalty and then four carries. All right, I avoided him all offseason.

Nope, that was wrong. I think he's locked into a really valuable workload and should be rostered everywhere. So anyway, just some, just some, how I'm viewing week one and stuff. Yeah, well, and I think one of the things, too, you know, we've been working together doing this podcast for a few years now. One of the things that I've noticed is sometimes these thoughts take a little bit of time to play out, right? Because I'll use two examples from you. You talked to Jonathan Taylor. A couple years ago as the best running back in that draft and, you know, a guy who was going to be a superstar. And it took a while for that to play out. Last year, Elijah Moore was your guy. And it took until week 10 or 11 for that to play

out. But then once it started, I guess it was like week, was it week seven. It's like week seven. I was on suicide watch the first six. Zach Wilson. Zach Wilson finally got hurt. And it was like, okay, now we see. But yeah, and it takes a little bit of time sometimes for these things to play out. Logan Thomas was one for me a couple years ago when he had his breakout season. And And it was week 7, 8, 9 before it started coming together. And every week, it was like, this guy's seeing too much work at too low over price tag for him to not eventually pay off. And so we have to understand these things. Like you said, we also, theory is such a big part of things and understanding how big of risks you need to take and where you need to take those risks.

I mean, that Patriots Dolphins game, that over under on that game was going up as we were getting deeper into the week. I saw in, I think it was in the juke, which is a three entry max, $400 contest. I saw early in the day in that one that Osamo had Tua plus Jalen Waddle plus Tyree Kill plus Mike Keseki in that, which is basically just a way of saying, look, nobody's betting on this game. These guys are cheap and this game could score much higher than people are expecting. And so it's talking about Mack Jones and the Millie Maker, right? Like we look at it and we're like, oh, Mac Jones is never going to hit, but that's kind of the point, right? Is that this game environment can go higher than people would expect and nobody's on it.

And blackout to Elijah Moore, I think a lot of people. would say, like that's going too far in a smaller field contest like the spy, but that was one that I played around with. Actually, so I'm higher on Wentz than you are in, in, not necessarily a resurgence, but just from a ceiling perspective. And Wentz to Dotson was one, Wins, Dotson, Kirk was one that I played around with. And eventually I was like, I don't need to do that in smaller field, high dollar contest, but Flacco Elijah Moore was another one I played around with. And I think that's just, you know, it's, it's understanding how to put these players together and where to take these risks and how to assess these players and how to then take that assessment

and put it together in a plus EV manner. But like you said, these, you know, theory is always going to win out over just knowing the plays. And you and I have talked about this is this concept of when you're when you're correlating and sacking not only is scoring in the NFL correlated, but if you're trying to get nine things right mathematically, that's so much more difficult. cult than trying to get six things right or five things right. And so if you bet on a game environment and bet on multiple players in that game environment,

now you're and you're covering, say, three spots on your roster with one bet. And then another two spots on your roster with one bet. You're cutting down on the number of things you need to get right. So your ceiling actually does go down a little bit. And yet that's often going to be what wins tournaments because even though your ceiling's going down, you're only needing to get five things right, six things right. And so you're going to inevitably beat the first. people trying to get nine things right most of the time. And as you get into smaller and smaller

contests, it's harder and harder for the people trying to get nine things right to win. And why I say that is if you're in a contest, the typical millie maker 200,000 entries, the individual person still is just as hard of a time getting nine things right. But there might be 170,000 rosters in there of people trying to get nine things right. And so the chances of somebody hitting on a lot of these right things is so much higher. If you're in a contest with 10,000 entries, 5,000 entries, 2,000 entries, 1,000 or fewer entries. Now, you just don't have people covering all these bases, especially if it's single entry. And so the people trying to get nine things right are at such a massive disadvantage.

I often see people scale down their correlation in smaller field tournaments, but you should actually be scaling it up because the value becomes that much greater of betting on fewer things. I see you nodding. And I don't know if you're nodding just because you think I'm a handsome beast or because you think that's sharp or because you're thinking about what you're going to do tonight. But any thoughts on that? And then we're going to start getting to some players here. No, yeah.

I think that's great. Just to defend the Elijah to Flacco thing. It's like as soon as that injury took place, I just spammed out a bunch of DMs where I'm just like, 100% Elijah to Flacco week one. 100%. It's been happening. And so like Sunday morning rolls around and it's like, all right. But like if that hits, I can't go back in that because I just said,

I'm going to have 100, so like I'm locked into it. But it's also like I just love Elijah Moore and his uncle is a fantasy points subscriber, apparently. Oh, that's phenomenal. He was in her Discord last week and he was just like sort of kind of low key trash like Zach where he's like, take your time, Zach, I trust in Flacco. Flacco's going to get her guy the ball. And I'm just like, all right, inside information plus my love for Elijah. He also had a touchdown negated due to penalty, so it made his day a little bit worse.

But otherwise, it was like a pretty chalky lineup. It had Tyreek Hill. I thought Tyreek Hill was the best wide receiver GPP play of the week. It had Pittman. It had Kelsey. It had Dotson. And then it had Aaron Jones and Christian McCaffrey. Saquan was my RB3.

I liked Gibson and some other guys who went off. But yeah, so that just bubbled. you're right like a $5 millie maker like the chance of winning that are so ridiculous especially the $5 million maker so like yeah I just I just went super super off the wall but that's what you're here for that's what the show is for you can you can help me with my my theory like it seems like the theory wasn't wasn't terrible in either regard yeah I mean it's it's in the large field you're never going to argue against anything as long as it's built in such a way that the players work together.

You know, like we can sit here and say, what are the chances that Mack Jones has a monster game except that you look back to last year and he had, was it multiple 30 point games, two different 30 point games? And not necessarily in spot. One of them was against Dallas, not necessarily in spots you're going to expect. And so, yeah, I don't, I don't hate that at all. I'm really in the Millie Maker. As long as it's a well-built roster, I literally don't care who the players are.

And then as far as like the guys on the other roster, I had Elijah Moore on 3-8-3, rosters, I think it's too. Hell yeah. Watson on Dotson on three out of three rosters. Hell yeah. And Dotson, it's one of those ones where as ownership starts creeping up, that tendency is to be like, oh, well, I have to move off of him. But if you're on a roster, actually, I'll kind of allude, I don't want to go too deep into my main roster because I broke it down on Inner Circle this year, which is our, I mean, this week, which is, you know, one of our premium subscriptions. So I want to put that, like, out public and

shaft those guys. But, but my main roster, it was the kind of roster where I literally didn't have to worry about ownership once I got past my starting point. And so if you can, if you have a roster like that, you don't have to worry. Like, we think too much about individual player ownership as opposed to how they're put onto our roster. And obviously we'll talk about that throughout the entire season. And then yeah, we've got, we started doing like cheat sheet ownership projections for inner circle where we have strategy notes next to guys and Zanamir's strategy note next to Tyree Kill was seems like pretty low ownership for a guy who could break the slate. And so the same thing, right? Like don't even think about match or don't even think about if

if you're talking about 5% owned Tyreek Hill, is he going to have a monster game one out of every 20 times, right? That's 5% more than likely he will. And so you can almost just press that button and say, it's sharp. I don't have to think about the matchup even because great players can beat tough matchups. And if everybody is overreacting to the match, we have an opportunity to kind of swing that back in our favor. All right. So I want to get to some situations.

And then we'll talk a little bit more DFS at the end. The first situation I want to get to Elijah Moore's team is this Jets backfield. So I think it's fair to say that if this were eight years ago, that Brees Hall would have been a first round pick. If this were eight years ago when it was more commonplace to take running backs in the first round and GMs wouldn't get laughed at by people like us, that Brees Hall would have been a first round pick. He's a really good running back. And yet Michael Carter had a really good season last year. So we see this where the fantasy community tends to overreact to the talent of a player and not account for the talent of the other guy on the team, right? And so obviously we had Michael Carter being taken deep in a drafts throughout most of the summer,

Breece Hall being taken in the third, fourth round throughout most of the summer, or at least in best ball drafts third, fourth round. So I'm curious if you see this becoming a situation where Brice Hall starts getting more and more and more work, or if this seems likely to continue to be like a one A, one B, with Michael Carter in the lead or even maybe they flip-flop. But if it's like Melvin Gordon and Giovante Williams last year, you know, where they're split down the middle on a much worse offense, it doesn't really help people all that much.

Just really curious your take on the usage split here. And if you have any thoughts on where it might go, has moved deeper into the season. Yeah. So I don't have a great take. I'm working on my week one recap article, which is probably like the most valuable piece I'll do in any sense. season and I have a quarterback wide receiver tight end done. I have to do running back all day today.

I will say with Carter versus Hall, it, it, their ADPs didn't make too much sense. Like, where it wasn't too terrible to me just because like in best ball, like a committee back, like a scab back or a workhorse, that's valuable. It starts it. It's like not really valuable at all. So just like the potential for Hall to eventually take over. as a bell cow back. He should be prioritized to like a pretty high degree. I don't know how likely that is coming from this Shanahan coaching tree and just everything that you've said.

You said Michael Carter's the pulse or the heartbeat of this offense. But what's our sources told us that by mid-season, it's going to be somewhere around 60 to 65 percent breeze. But right now it's going to be 50. 50, 50. But what's really interesting, and maybe this is nothing, maybe it's just like a weird week one, Brees Hall had 10 targets. And so if that's the sort of role he's going to get, like DeAndre Swift was, it was a 60-40 committee last year. But because he was so heavily involved in the passing game, it yielded low-end RB1 production. And it seems like the Jets want

their quarterbacks targeting running backs. You saw the same thing with Mike White light last year. and maybe Zach Wilson just didn't listen or was too incompetent to throw the ball three yards to a running back. But yeah, Hall is someone I struggled with. He was on like the, he was like the, like after this point, don't really worry about running backs. And like Hall was just on that bubble for me all off season. And I kept sometimes moving in there, sometimes moving in now. Yeah, and I think that this, it's probably fair to assume that this offense would like to be more. run-based and not throw 59 passes. And yet their defense is going to be bad enough that they're

going to be forced in situations like this. You know, I think that with Zach Wilson, we'll probably see them try to stick to the run a little bit more, whereas Blackwood, they probably trust him a little bit more for the short area of precision-type passing. But I think that we will see a lot of pass heavier game scripts from them. So that was kind of like more big picture, bringing that back into an opponent for the Jets this week that could actually be really valuable. in DFS this week is David Nijoku. So the Jets and Browns are playing this week. I have always been,

I'm one of these guys who obviously I pay attention to coaching more than most people do. And I recognize that coaches don't, they only care about talent to a certain extent. They care about football players beyond that. And so for years, everyone was always like, oh, David Nijoku, this guy's so athletic, this guy's so great. And I was always like, he's not a good football player.

You know, he's just not a good football player. Tony Pollard was the same way early in his career. He's actually gotten better and better. But every time Pollard would be on the field, he would make mental mistakes. And you're like, well, this is why this guy's not getting playing time. You know, one mental mistake can kill your whole game. Like, who cares how talented this guy is? And then, you know, the joke had this big game last year.

And he's like, sure, he's capable of that kind of game. But it didn't stand out to me until the Browns gave him this huge contract. And what was strange about it to me is that this is the coaching staff that has had to Joku for these last couple years. It's not like a new staff just came in and they're like, oh, well, this guy's talented. Let's give him. It's like they've had this guy in the building and they gave him this money as if he's going to be the guy.

So all along, I was like, well, they're still going to run too tight-end sets. Harrison Bryant is more valuable than people realize. He's good. But, but, and he is good. He's good. But does, does David of Joku remain deprioritized? I'll say, does he remain a guy? And now this is just, this is not us stamping our foot down and saying definitely this, right?

This is just like kind of what we're thinking early in the season. Do you think that they, that he's a guy who just remains, hopefully this is a game where he gets usage? Or do you think that week one was more fluky and there's like a little bit more consistent usage? I mean, Brissette loves throwing to tight ends. You can go back through his numbers over the years. He loves feeding tight ends because he's not an aggressive quarterback. doesn't have a big arm. Eating those guys in the seam is great for a quarterback like that.

So any takes on David Nujoku. And if you don't have any, that's fine. I'm just kind of curious your overall thoughts there because he stands out to me as a guy who could be a great, I mean, a slate breaker against the Jets, just the usage would have to be there. Yeah, I just want to say one of the thing about the Jets Ravens too. You might not see the two running backs combined for 19 targets every week. They have the best secondary in football.

He had maybe the worst last year due to injury, but like this year, maybe the best. So bad matchup for Elijah, great, you know, funnel volume matchup for the running backs. Yeah, and Joku, so he was someone I faded all offseason because it just didn't make sense to me for the reasons you outline. I'm like him and Will Disley just had laughably horrific contracts like that Jonu Smith contract, which was laughably horrific. And then I watched the preseason where he's getting 90% of the first team snaps. And I was like, oh, okay. Last year was a three-way tight end by committee situation. Maybe they'll have him as their bell cow this year.

So I walked it back. And then week one, 68% route share, one target, three fewer targets than Harrison Bryant. Yeah, that's not going to get it done. I think he is pretty dropable. Sure, Jacoby Brissette targets tight ends, but like he's not good. pick him up maybe like a week before Deshaun Watson returns but yeah I'm not really holding my breath there I pretty much faded him in bestball and then I was doing the mastiff drafts at the very end of best ball season which is the 2,500 drafts and there was it was a two max entry and I got nijoku

in one of those so I actually have like more money on all my other tight ends combined basically obviously he was my back like he was my second tight end behind waller on that rock I was like, you know what? If I'm wrong on him, I'd like to get this bet down on him in this, in this contest. Yeah. And I might just treat it, you know, one way to think through something like that, too, is like in week one, I didn't take a lot of Kirk in, Christian Kirk in underdog drafts. And so going into week one, this is, this is for the people.

If you're ever like trying to think about how to process, like, where you allocate your exposure to guys. Heading into week one, it was like, okay, I don't have a lot of Kirk in, in bestball. And so if I'm wrong on him, this is the cheapest price we're going to get him at all NFL season. And so I made sure I had him on my main roster, which had about 2K on that roster. And so then that way you're able to say, if I'm wrong in best ball, I'm giving myself a shot to be right here at the lowest price. I'll be able to get him. So I'll probably move forward just treat the joku as like, okay, I have my exposure to him.

If I miss out on a big game in DFS, that's okay because I'm getting that score elsewhere. But yeah, I mean, that was that was really strange and disconcerting usage. And I think it'll go up and there will be spiked weeks, one would imagine, but I don't know that we'll see consistency out of him just because of the offense he's in and the way they're going to run things and the way they're going to share the ball in that offense. Okay, so here's one that I would love to get out in front of if we feel good about it. Speaking of Christian Kirk, and that's the Jags passing attack. So this is off the top of my head, but I think it was 42 pass attempts and 19 rush attempts.

and like three of those were from Trevor Lawrence. And it wasn't just reactive. They fell behind 14 to 3 in the first half, but they were having, they were having drives with plenty of time on the clock, right? Where you're still like, okay, let's get a touchdown before halftime. And they were very past skewed in their play calling. And we have new head coach there in Doug Peterson.

And obviously it was also strange to me that the back field was slanted so heavily toward James Robinson in terms of total touches just because you got a guy coming off in Achilles injury. I did not see that. I mean, I have a lot of James Robinson and basketball just because he was available so late, right, in the upsides there, but it was like, really, this kind of usage. But my main curiosity, they're playing the Colts this week. So it's another game where we would expect them to be behind. Do you think that we're going to see this turn into kind of a past leaning offense? Because if we do, just volume can be so valuable. That's something I'd like to get out in front of and have exposure to

this offense before everybody else catches on while they're still low priced. The passing core is kind of ugly, right? Marvin Jones, Zay Jones, not guys that you're super excited to bet on as as core pieces of a stack, but if the volumes there, it becomes pretty interesting. Yeah, I just really don't know. I do know they were trailing 14 to 3 at one point, and this was the most favorable matchup for passers last year. So it could be all of those things.

Yeah, I was saying all off season that Darrell Henderson was an amazing arbitrage play on Cam Acres, but I think James Robinson was as well because, you know, it's the same injury, but he's going like 12 rounds later or maybe even more than that. I do know like Etienne, I think, had like a 6040 split and then he fumbled and then it tipped more in Robinson's favor. He also was badly overthrown on what would have been a touchdown pass. Christian Kirk, I think, is extremely interesting. So when that signing took place, I was dunking on the Jaguars for how bad that contract was. But Greg Kassell was talking about how like listen, they envision him differently.

The contract signifies that they want him as their sort of PPR cheat code slot wide receiver. And then we saw that in preseason with like a 33% target share. And then we saw that in week one with like a 33% target share. And so he's going to be a valuable player. My issue that I keep coming back to is when Trevor Lawrence was coming out, I had two buddies from PFF who said he was like basically the most overrated prospect in X amount of years. Mack Jones was significantly better. And so I just keep coming back to that where like it's hard for me to get really excited about him.

But yeah, so I go. Yeah. And I mean, like players develop, right? That's the one thing we can't predict is how much a. player will develop because Tom Brady you would have never said that he was whatever right Josh Allen it was you could be like well his accuracy is never going to come around so players can develop uh I think I'm with you in turn like we certainly haven't seen anything from Lawrence so far in the NFL that makes him stand out as like a future superstar other than

the hair but the the there I certainly want to be open to the idea of this could be a team that keeps getting better. This could be a quarterback who keeps getting better. I think, too, one of the things is great with Christian Kirk is because the contract was so easy to dunk on, because the contract was so easy to criticize, our perception of Christian Kirk as a player is attached to the contract now, right, instead of just Christian Kirk, the player. And so drafting him, playing him, you automatically feel a little bit like a donkey just because he was so overpaid in real life, that that stigma kind of attaches to him. And it gives us a little bit of time.

Like as his price goes up in DFS, people will continue to feel like, oh, he's a little bit overpriced. And I think that there's value in that, right? If any place where we can understand psychology of the crowd is going to be beneficial to us and how we can use that to our advantage, how we can exploit that weakness of the field, and I think Christian Kirk is one of those guys. He's going to be $5,700 in week two, which is still a pretty nice price against a cult scene that should be taking a lead and forcing the gym.

to throw the ball. So next spot I want to look at is the Denver backfield. Obviously, you know, you said earlier with the Breece Hall and Michael Carter that you guys are hearing that deeper into the season, Hall will take over this larger share of the workload. And it would be easy to say that with Javante Williams as well. I kind of came into this season saying, I don't, outside of a Melvin Gordon injury, I don't, I have a hard time pulling the trigger on second round, Giovante Williams, because I'm less interested in betting on talent and more interested in betting on role,

especially with running backs. And week one was more of the same. Obviously, there was a huge target share, but that seemed more just game dependent. But in terms of workload and touches, it seemed more of the same. Do you think that that's something that's going to change as we get deeper into the season?

Or do we continue to look at Jamante as like a little bit overvalued for role and Melvin Gordon is a little undervalued for role? Yeah, I really don't know. Benjamin Albrey was tweeting out this like a few weeks before the season started that he was anticipating like a 55 45, 45 role with Boone working in. And like that is just horrible. What Hackett himself has said is like he wants to ride the hot hand. And what I wrote in my analysis was like, well, I know about you, but Javante Williams looks like Anna DeArmis and Melvin Gordon looks like Queen Elizabeth. RIP, this is a few weeks ago. And so, like, if that's true, then, yeah, like, how dare you? If that's true, like, Javante should, you know, should get a massive workload every week. But no, I think you're right. I think it's going to be a frustrating committee, although 12 targets is like a really good sign. Like, it doesn't matter if Melvin gets more

carries. If he's the wide receiver one of this team, you know, I don't think that's likely. But yeah, really what this situation looked like to me was Jonathan Taylor last year where Zach Kiefer beat writer for The Athletic said, yeah, he's going to be in the same role he had last year's and I had like 50% of the snaps with 60% of the carries. And that's just what it is. And that was right for the first four weeks of the season. And then Jonathan Taylor ranked second in SnapShare from that point on and just smashed. And so, yeah, it's a bet on talent. me like, okay, Jonathan Taylor betters won a lot of money. You were right.

But I mean, what were the odds of that happening? It might have just been a coin flip. And it might be a coin flip again for Javante. We don't really know. But it definitely is a bet on talent. He definitely is extremely talented. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's a perfect take.

I think it's a perfect take and a great example, right? In that Javante Williams could force his way into this. This is what Scott does when we are. just doing audio, he'll sometimes leave for a little bit. And it always throws me off. But now you guys get to see it, so it can throw you guys off as well. Just going to keep you on your toes. The next one I want to talk about is a man who is near and dear to our hearts,

at least a guy we talked about quite a bit last season. And that's Cadarius Tony, who played, I believe it was seven snaps in week one in spite of Wondell Robinson, getting injured. Speaking of those cheat-cheed ownership projections, was another note from Zandemir was, you know, 10% ownership on Cadarious Tony. He was like beat writers are saying that he could be the number four and the leverage off of him is Sterling Shepard down at 0.8% ownership. And to be clear on this, if you're unfamiliar with DFS theory, this isn't saying

Sterling Shepard's a better play. That's not the point. The point is if everybody's betting on Cadarious Tony, what could go wrong for Cadarious Tony and who benefits as a result so that you're not just people with Cadarious Tony get hurt, you directly benefit as a result. And the more we can think that way, the more we're going to bolt ourselves up the leaderboard, because every time people are, actually, I take a quick side trail here. One of the things I did in that Mastiff draft was I thought, okay, there's 12 teams here, four teams advance, right? So you just build a sharp team and you've got a one in three chance,

but there's probably going to be two to four teams in each Mastiff draft that gets knocked out just because of injuries. And there's nothing you can do about that, right? Well, one thing you can do is benefit off of those injuries. So what I try to do in those drafts is if I'm in the 13th round, the 14th round, and I have a choice between a player who is a teammate of a first, second or third round pick, or a player who's not a teammate of a first,

second or third round pick, I'm taking the guy who's a teammate of a first second or third round pick. That way, if the first second or third round pick gets hurt and is hurting another roster in the master draft, I'm also benefiting as a result. So again, we're trying to press these buttons to where we, actually benefit when other people get hurt, especially in DFS when the field gets hurt. Cadarious Tony 10% owned.

If all those rosters get hurt, how do I benefit? Anyhow, Cadarious Tony, it's been a weird offseason for Cadarious Tony. So obviously, Scott and I followed the news on everything kind of throughout the year, but if you're not following the news throughout the year, in training camp, it seemed like Brian Daibald really didn't like Cadarius Tony. And then there'd be reports of Cadarius Tony. It was similar to Brandon Ayuk last offseason where it was kind of like he's just not treating every practice like with the utmost importance. But then you kind of think, well,

surely though, with how talent bereft this offense is, Cadarius Tony's going to have a role in week one, even when when Zandemir left that note in the cheat sheet ownership, I was like, yeah, I just, I mean, the beat writer is saying that, but Tony's got to see the field. Then Wondell Robinson gets her, Tony still doesn't see the field. So Cadarious, Tony's playing the Panthers this week. Not a great matchup for a wide receiver to begin with. It's a spot where you would expect the Giants to attack on the ground. But Cadarius Tony is kind of more gadgety. He can catch the ball behind a lot of scrimmage.

He can catch the ball in space and all that. This week slash big picture, Cadarius Tony, are you fearful on Cadarious Tony? I mean, like, we have a lot of season-long people who are watching as well. Are you dropping Cadarious Tony? Are you trying to trade Cadarious Tony and convince somebody else? Like, no, no, no, this guy, that was a fluke. This guy is going to have a big role.

Or are you thinking like, oh, no, this guy is going to have a big role moving forward? Yeah, Danny Kelly has a great tweet that he be tweets occasionally where it's like, I found in fantasy football, sometimes I get things right and sometimes coaches are stupid. And playing Kenny Gallaudet over Cadarious Tony is just so stupid, so unforgivable. Like I don't care like if this guy hasn't been to a single practice all off season. The talent disparity between Kenny Gallaudet, who looks like a bad. tight end versus Cadarius, Tony, who's led all wide receivers and missed tackles force per reception, ranked top 12 in yards per route run, one of the best rookie season yards per route runs ever. It's just like so unforgivable. What am I doing with Tony? You have no choice

but to hold and hope and just like, hey, maybe he's going to penalize him for, you know, being a jerk and practices for week one just to send a message. And then next week, Daibel will come to his senses. And so just to hold and hope there, I will say very bullish on Wondale Robinson, who got hurt in this game. But what happened was Richie James. He moved him over to the slot following that injury.

And then he had, you know, one of the top 10 highest target shares of the week. Same thing for Saquan Barkley, who kind of competes for those low A-D targets. Top 10 in target share on the week. The team loves him. He's in the slot. He kicked Tony out wide.

And Peter King was saying, you know, he's been the star of camp. He's going to be heavily involved. So whenever Wondell returns from his entry, I don't think it's too serious. He'll be a great cheap, minimum price to draft King's wide receiver. Yeah, I got all the Wondell in Underdog. I think he's, and speaking of following the offseason news, it was one of the things the Giants beatwriters were. very kind of concerned with this draft pick, as was the general public, like, well, you reached on

Wondell Robinson. He's this tiny guy. Can he fit in the NFL? And then they started watching practices. And it was like, okay, almost like the Christian Kirk thing, where you said Greg Kassell said that about, look, the Jags view him differently. It was like, the beat writer started realizing watching practices that Brian Dable had a specific plan of how he wanted to use Wondell Robinson, drafted him to fit into that plan and he's going to use him that way. So there's going to be usage there where we don't have to necessarily worry about his size, so to speak, because Daibol is going to use his speed instead. He's going to use him in ways that play to his strengths. So where Daible might be a donkey in some areas by leaving Cadarious Tony on the sidelines,

he's clearly getting things right in other areas. And I think that, I mean, I think that, you know, there's a team building side. We got to remember that Brian Daible did coach under Bill Belichick for a long time. In fact, do you know the story of how Daible got into coaching? No. I'll tell you. So Josh McDaniel, this has nothing to do with DFS is just a fun storytelling. So the Patriots notoriously, they make like the low level guys work extremely, extremely hard. And they do this thing called, I think it's called padding where they have to draw out every single play of a game, including like the splits. And they have to have all the yardage right on like the offensive linemen and where the guys are lined up on all 11 players on both sides of the ball. And if they mess up one thing on one game, they have to go back and do the entire game.

Again, it's basically training them in attention to detail. And they start there and then they do film stuff and a bunch of other things, like very low-level stuff. And so that was where McDaniels got started. And he was so good at that stuff that Belichick was ready to promote him, but also didn't want to lose him from that stuff. And basically told McDaniels, once you find a replacement who can do what you're doing,

as well as you're doing it, we'll promote you up to the next level. And so he brought in Brian Dable. Brian Dable took over that Josh McDaniel's job and they moved up from there. So, you know, from a standpoint of where Daveo got his start, we would expect some stuff like this where it's like, look, this is our most talented guy, but we're keeping him on the sidelines because of this, you know. But I think that this is going to be a good team over time depending on how much Daniel Jones can develop or how quickly they can get rid of him and get a good quarterback in his place. I think Daveau will do a good job there. But that Canary's Tony thing is it is kind of nuts.

And I would hope that we see some unleashed Cadarious Tony. and that's also the type of spot where in a milly maker type contest you don't wait for tony to start getting the snaps you sprinkle him onto your rosters early on because if it happens if he gets that 30 point game and nobody has him that's such an edge there don't don't do it in smaller field contest but in something like the milly make you want to start looking for stuff like that okay so i've thrown more situations well one thing i just i just googled i assumed dable would get asked about it and he'd give an answer uh he said uh it's because he's still working his way back from a knee injury he suffered this summer.

No. Probably, yeah, he looked damn good too, but he said he's doing a good job of, quote, unquote, learning our stuff. No concerns with that. But yeah. Yeah. You know what's one of the things I love about doing this Tuesday show with you is that I can throw out like any player and you already have like quotes and tweets and stats on like

any player I throw at you. It's incredible. If you are watching this, you don't realize how good Scott is at what he does. I hope that you start to realize how good Scott is at what he does. Okay, so I've got three more I want to get to. And then we'll wrap up with a little bit more DFS talk to close things out. Dallas offense, no DAC, no Amari, probably no Gallup still for at least one more week. They're playing the Bengals this week.

Seems like pricing must have been set before. Yeah, well, it was because Sunday night football. Bingo's defense is priced at 2,200 this week, which is just, I mean, playing a super chalky defense is always like a no-no from like, because they're so volatile. But 2,200, Bengals are going to be super, super popular this week. Technically then the highest leverage is to bet on the Cowboys offense looking really good. That would be difficult to do. Quick takes on the Cowboys offense. We still have Kellyn Moore on the sidelines, calling plays, designing everything.

but yeah, Cooper Rush at quarterback deck's going to be out a couple months, or if you ask Jerry Jones, maybe three weeks and find a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. I think C.D. Lamb hit 118 yards in his one game with Cooper Rush. So, I mean, if you want like insane leverage, you can play Cooper plus Lamb. Yeah, I wouldn't go that route. But I think I think this just the offense is toast like it was last time. Dak Prescott suffered an injury and it like didn't look particularly good with a healthy Dak Prescott anyway. This this offense has dumps her fire vibes. I think the head coach

might not make it through the rest of the season. But the offense one is John Peyton. As I say, it's going to be great next year with Sean Payton. Tony Pollard in the Alvin Kamara role. Let's go. Yeah. Dynasty. Hold on to that Tony Pollard. All right. Two old men who one of whom looked better than expected for me in week one, one of whom looked, I guess worse than expected, but I kind of did think that this was going to be the case. Julio Jones looked actually pretty explosive. I think he reached top speeds like 20 point something miles per hour on the field. Only five targets, but Chris Godwin's gone this week.

They're playing the Saints. We know what Marshawn Latimore has done to Mike Evans in the past. If you don't know, you'll hear Scott talking about it this week. you'll hear me talking about it this week, but Marshall Ladamore has completely erased Mike Evans multiple times in the past. Julio Jones, very interesting. He's not a guy that I jumped on board with just because he looked like he was toast last year with the Titans, even when he got on with the field.

And then Alan Robinson, I thought Alan Robinson was dead last year, just totally dead. And then the reports out of Rams camp, just from, it was really in terms of like the catches that he would make. but it kind of hyped everyone up and it was like, man, this guy's going to flourish in this offense, but he still can't separate. They're playing the Falcons this next week, which the thought process there would be, oh, well, if he's going to smash, it's going to be versus the Falcons. But I actually thought about it this way.

The Falcons have Casey Hayward. Casey Hayward's not a ghost of himself, but he's not, you know, top of his game, Casey Hayward at this point. But Casey Hayward and they've got Terrell, like they've got good corners, but they don't have a pass rush, which means that that's more and more time for guys to get open. Well, who gets open in that scenario? It's not Alan Robinson. He's going to suddenly separate because Stafford has a couple extra seconds.

It's Cooper Cup is going to get open because they're bracketing him, but there's a couple extra seconds so he finds a way to get open. So Julio Jones, Alan Robinson, any quick thoughts on either of those guys? Yeah, I just never had a great read on Alan Robinson. He was an instinctual fade for me. And then we had like sources come in saying a Rams coach told. than, this isn't Adam Caput, by the way, a lesser source that a Rams coach said he was in a score like 20 touchdowns this year. And like, that's not an exaggeration. And I'm like, oh, my God. Like, all right. So I bumped him up to wide receiver 24. And so this is just a guy where it's still

lower than ADP. I never had a great read on it. I still don't have a great read on it. Certainly week one, yes, it looked like he was, you know, Stafford only had eyes for cup and like really, really didn't look good. I don't know. If you own him, he's a hold. Julio Jones, though, I was extremely bullish on him because Ian Rappaport had this interview with the Pat McAfee show where he was like, you know, what everyone doesn't understand is Julio like didn't practice once last year. He was hurt. He was seriously hurt. And then like once you like take that into account, this is a guy who has ranked top five in yards for route run and eight straight seasons. It became the first wide receiver with eight seasons of 85 plus yards per game.

And he did in eight straight seasons. And so I was all in on him. And then he went to Tampa Bay where he's like the wide receiver four. And I don't know, I just like totally backed off. But I mean, I think he could be a thing now with, you know, Godwin's hurt. He had 69 yards in the first half. that was the sixth most among all wide receivers. So you think that could have been more because it was a 19 to three blowout.

So he definitely could be a thing for however long Godwin's out. Yeah, I think that from like what works best with Tom Brady, I was really high on Antonio Brown with the box just because the short area of quickness is such a great fit for Brady. And Godwin's obviously the best fit in that regard. but we've seen Brady mesh with Mike Evans, you know, in terms of red zone usage, downfield usage. And I think that Julio Jones, he doesn't, I mean, Julio Jones is one of the best route runners that

we've seen in the last 15, 20 years as well. But it's a lot of times it's to spring loose for big plays. It's not so much like the Stefan Diggs, the Antonio Brown, like the cut, cut, cut, and kind of throw the cornerback off in these five-yard ranges. But I think that, yeah, I think that Julio Jones becomes super interesting here. I think that we could probably see. a little bit more Leonard Fournett targets too moving forward just while we wait for Chris Godwin to come back because Brady needs that short area outlet. But I think Julio Jones is interesting.

I think that he's a guy I'll be interested in. I don't think his price bumped up much. This is off the top of my head. But I think he's still under 6K on draftings for this week. And yeah, it's an interesting guy for this matchup against the Saints where the Saints could be putting up points. They're going to be forced to pass. Neither team can run on the other team in this matchup. And so you have a situation where the bucks are going to be passing. Mike Evans could be somewhat erased by Marshawn Lattimore. If you want to talk about moving opposite the field,

I think at this point everybody knows about the Mike Evans, Marshawn Lattimore matchup. And we'll probably see low ownership on Evans. If that's the case, you know, what? If he's 5% owned, one out of 20 times, will he eventually beat Marcia and Lattimore for a big game probably? So he becomes interesting as well. But Julio Jones is a guy to really think about here.

Okay, Scott, we did a great job. We hit on some players. As always, I'm super impressed with your ability to pull stats and quotes off the top of your head. Julio Jones X most yard in the first half of a game in week one. Like, who has that stat banked in their mind already? So let's talk a little bit more DFS. And I guess I'll talk my roster this last weekend. So what I did this last weekend was I wanted to focus on, I thought it was very interesting.

I was looking at, I looked pretty deeply into point per dollar production of 2021 production against week one price. And by that metric, the most underpriced quarterbacks on the slate were Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins at 6,100. But Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, even though they were super high priced, they were the most underpriced quarterbacks on the slate. I had two, two Mahomes rosters, one. Herbert roster. So the Mahomes roster were Mahomes, Kelsey. I thought this was interesting.

Mahomes had six like big, big games last year. Kelsey had big games in five of them. And so it's hard to separate one from the other. Most of Kelsey's big games also came with Mahomes having big games. So it was almost like if I have Kelsey, I want to have Mahomes. If I have Mahomes, I want to have Kelsey. I also threw Juju in on those rosters. Like I said, I had Elijah Moore on every roster. I had Dotson on every roster. I had Eli Mitchell. on both of my Mahomes rosters. Eli Mitchell, also the most underpriced player on the slate at running back from 2021 production compared to week one.

Price second most underpriced running back was Derek Henry. He was on both of those Mahomes rosters. So I got the Mahomes Kelsey that went really nicely and then he got varied by my running backs. But those are plays I would make again. Those weren't the sharpest rosters. They were good plays. I was very happy with the players on those rosters. but there was nothing in the theory of either of those rosters that was just like,

this roster is awesome. And it needed like the players to perform well. And I finished those rosters like end of Saturday night and one of them Sunday morning because it was just like, I just can't find anything else. But my main roster, and the one that I loved and the one that I like fell in place on Tuesday or Wednesday and I was like, well, this is definitely one I'm using. I'm going to tell you what it was. And the point of this one is that you're supposed to hear it and be like, no, that's wrong.

No, that's ugly. Why would you do that? And yet if you break it down, which like I said, I can't break it down too deeply because that would kind of shaft our inner circle members. But if you break it down, you're like, oh, that's actually a tremendous tournament roster. So I'm going to work backward to forward because it's the top of the roster that doesn't, quote, doesn't make sense. And the rest of it does make sense. So it was Bears defense. It was Mark Andrews and Elijah Moore, where both good plays and they work well together. It was Dotson and Kirk, both good plays and they work well together. it was, I guess it was Christian McCaffrey on this one.

And then it was Justin Herbert, Austin. No, it wasn't Chris McAfric. He was Austin Echler. Justin Herbert, Austin Echler, and Josh Jacobs. And that's the part where he's supposed to be like, why did you play Josh Jacobs? But basically, in short, the point of this roster was, if I'm because of how high-priced Herbert and Echler are. I'm not betting on like a solid game. I'm not betting on a 28 to 24 game. I'm betting on one of their 47 to 42 games or their 41 to 37 games, which they had a

couple of last year, those exact scores. In those games, Herbert plus Echler combined for over 5x their week one salary. But in those games, you're basically saying the opponent, I'm not worrying about yards. The opponent scores five touchdowns. And if the opponent scores five touchdowns, analytically, it's easiest to score on the ground when you get close to the end zone. Josh McDaniels knows this for the last decade. The Patriots have scored as many touchdowns on the ground as anybody, and they've made it more difficult than any team in football to score on the ground against them. When you get down inside the five-yard line, the Patriots don't give up touchdowns on the ground.

I think it's four of the last five years they've given up the third fewest rushing touchdowns or less every year. And that's just because of their understanding of like, look, you run the ball when you getting close, that's the easiest way to score. And so the thinking basically becomes, if this game, I don't care about like a middling game. I'm trying to win a tournament. If this game hits its highest end range, Josh Jacobs is as likely as anybody on this team to score two or three touchdowns. We actually saw their Raiders first time they got inside the five, gave Josh Jacobs the ball.

He had a cutback lane to score touchdown. His feet went under him. He fell down, didn't score the touchdown. But it's the type of thing where you say, look, I'm not betting on Jacob's role. I'm not betting on the touch end. I'm betting on the fact that everyone hates Jacobs right now. and if this game hits its highest end outcome, he's as likely as anyone to score three touchdowns.

And now that I have this pairing that makes a ton of sense if this game hits its highest end outcome. Now, I have less of a chance of finishing in like the top 10% of the field or the top 12% of the field. But my chances of finishing first place, right, it's what Cubs fan would call a barbell approach. You're either going to finish all the way to the left or all the way to the right. My chances of finishing first place come up so much higher.

and that's because I now have this pairing that nobody has. The moment I have Josh Jacobs on this stack, I know that in these contests I'm in with a thousand or fewer entries, I'm literally one of 10 rosters with Josh Jacobs or one of 15 rosters with Josh Jacobs and the game changer, one of two or three rosters with Josh Jacobs, and none of them have this pairing. And so now I can literally do whatever I want on the rest of my roster

because this is the pairing I'm betting on this game environment hitting its highest end outcome. If it does, I'm probably hitting on all three. guys and now the rest of my roster just has to score points where it makes the most sense. So that was my weekend. Like I said, the Mahomes roster is super sharp from like the players on them standpoint. Not like rosters I was incredibly proud of from a theory perspective. But yeah, any thoughts on that? And then we got a question that came in as well that I want to get to and then we will we'll get out of here. Any thoughts on those rosters? Any reaction to Josh

Jacobs being on my main roster? No, I really don't mind it. The other thing I'll plug. I sent you the link, Jan, in Twitter DM is I wrote an article this offseason, trying to step up my game theory game. I forget what it was titled like DFS cheat sheet or barge field tournament cheat sheet, something like that. And I do think like Josh Jacobs type types are really underrated. If you look at ROI from last season's results, it's clear that that those sorts of guys are. DFS players tend to overrate Konami code quarterbacks for tournaments, underrate the pure pocket passers who are cheap and stink. Guys like Mack Jones, Kirk Cousins was one of my favorite targets this past week. And like if Green Bay hung,

it would have been absolutely sick, but they didn't. And yeah, and same thing for running backs. Like you want bell cows in start sit leads and in your start sit traps. But in DFS, it really makes sense to gravitate towards these early down workhorses who aren't going to be catching targets and just leaning into their upside of, okay, the get game script. And now they're getting 25 touches. You could also stack them with their defense. So that makes a lot of sense.

Definitely check out that article where I talk about a bunch of different stuff. The other thing I wanted to say to you, but maybe I should have asked this off air is how come you don't, you're not an MME guy? Because like I played one lineup this week and it was like close. You know, I did Aaron Jones and CMC, but, you know, Seycorne was my RB3. I really liked Gibson, some other guys who hit. But it had Kelsey Dodson, Pittman, or granted, those are chalky guys and Tyreek. But I mean, I really liked Justin Jefferson. I really liked Jamar Chase.

I really liked. And it's like if I went MME, I feel like I really could have pretty easily landed on the nuts lineup. If you just like spit out 150, okay, my number one lineup bubbled by 1.7 points. But maybe my 15th lineup or my 30th lineup got everything perfect. maybe at some point this season, J.M, we can tag team 150 lineups at some point if you have any interest.

But if not, that's it. Yeah, well, and I think that with MME, there's playing it well, there's even more theory that goes into it. Like, I would not, like, I don't want to, I want to overcorrelate in MME, essentially, and not just hope that my player pool, like, strikes gold with nine guys landing in the nine right spots,

but, like, really get things down. So I don't do MME, I guess the short answer would be, or when I started playing in 2014, 2015, that wasn't really a thing as much. But also, I was so good. And back then, you could win a tournament with 175, 180 points, like a smaller field contest. And I was so good back then at winning the, you know, I had a week where I finished first, second, third, and fourth in the game changer with two rosters that were double entered. And, you know, it was like, I felt so good.

about the two rosters, I just duped those two rosters, right? So I had four entries, but it was just two rosters and one took first and second, and the other took third and fourth, because you could be better than everybody else of just building roster. So I had this single entry kind of or limited entry approach early on, and that was part of my reputation as a content provider where so many content providers were M&E and their shows would be like, I like, I like this guy, oh yeah, I'm playing this guy, I'm playing this guy, I'm playing this. And people were like, this isn't helping me. You're playing everybody and I'm playing five lineups over here. you know, like, who should I play?

And so I think it helped me from like a brand-building perspective in terms of connecting with an audience and people were able to be, oh, James, the limited entry guy who I can learn this stuff from. I've dabbled in MME as I started OWS, right? The first couple of years, I was working 80-hour, 90-hour weeks, all NFL season because I was running the site and doing almost all the content and doing the site itself.

And so, yeah, and then trying to play DFS. So at that point, it just made sense to play limited entry. but I did mess around in 2019 with what I called mini multi-entry, which is blocks of like 14 to 19 rosters. And I wanted to see what it would take to win the Wildcat, where it's 150 entry max, but I was putting in like 15 to 20 rosters. And kind of worked through my strategy week to week on podcasts and stuff.

The numbers shouldn't have worked out this quickly, but I ended up striking gold in the wildcat, the first place finished like my seventh week of doing that. And then it was like, all right, I did this mini multi-entry thing. Now let me go back to limited entry. So that's kind of where I've stuck on that. Okay, before we get out of here, one, I want to drop a promo. I'm going to do it even though it's your site.

So there's a promo plugged 22 for 10% off on fantasy points. We also have a save 20 for 20 bucks off on OWS. So if you want to check us out, you can. We also have OWS free, which, is free. So you can kind of test out a bunch of things on the site. And then we had, so that's plugged 22, PLU G-G-G-E-D-22. That's 10% off. And then save 20, which, you know how to spell save, and then the number to zero. Okay. And then somebody asked about the San Francisco backfield. So I'm going to take this, if you don't mind. And then if you have anything to add, you can add it.

And then we'll get out of here. San Francisco backfield, I'm high, high, high on Eli Mitchell this year except he's out for like eight weeks. Eli Mitchell is an excellent running back. The concern for the field was kind of the old Chris Carson concern, which is like low draft capital. All this guy's going to lose his job, right? That's kind of how people looked at it. And then they're like, and he's injury prone. But when a guy has a low draft capital and then he becomes a starter, his rookie year, people kind of keep waiting for him to get replaced. I wasn't waiting for that. And then I consider injuries to be more random than we can necessarily predict. So I didn't want to over-rely on that injury fear. Well, now Eli Mitchell's out for several weeks. The 49ers are one of these teams.

Shanahan's kind of Belichicky in that he doesn't want to put guys in until they understand the full role. What he said after week one when asked about Tyrion Davis Price and who's the other guy? Jeff Wilson? No, not Jeff Wilson. Like the third, the other number three. Trace. No. Trayson. Oh, I know you'll tell you about it. Is it Warren or some? Mason. Mason, there we go. When Shane was asked with them and he basically said, well, they're going to have to grow up quickly. In other words, like, I'm not ready to put them in, but they're going to have to grow up quickly. Jeff Wilson is the number two, not because he's the most talented guy on the ground, but because he can do all the things that they need for the offense.

So, and let's put it like this, George Kiel, potentially the best past catching tight end in football, but we never get to see it because his blocking is so important to this team that he's always doing that, right? The 49ers are about what components come together from all 11 guys to help them win, not just the individual talent and how they maximize that. That said, Jeff Wilson's not super talented on the ground. So am I going into week two saying, Jeff Wilson's 5100? Oh, man, he's the number one back. No, not necessarily because they're going to give the ball to Debo as much as they can.

They're going to scheme up other looks. I don't think that Jeff Wilson suddenly becomes an Eli Mitchell, right? Eli Mitch on multiple games last year, like four or five games with 25 plus carries. I don't think we see that from Jeff Wilson. I think that we see Jeff Wilson kind of on the field a lot. you're going to mix in some other guys, but I don't think that we suddenly see one of these other backs leapfrog Wilson because that's just not the way the chain him runs his offense. But I also don't think that we see Wilson just step into this alpha role. I think that

they'll spread it out more to Debo and maybe get Iuk involved in the kind of the jet sweep stuff a little bit more and all that. So that's my take there. Any takes from you, Scott, before we get out of here? Yeah, I think of with Jeff Wilson, it hinges on ownership. If he's chalky, I don't want a part of him. but if he's not, I really love him. So over the last three seasons, Jeff Wilson has had seven or more carries only 16 times, but in the top 50% of those games, he averages 22.2 draft king's fantasy points per game.

And in the bottom 50%, 6.7. And those are the sorts of plays you really want to lean into in tournaments. So I think he's really underrated. I think this role is phenomenal, even if Debo, does, you know, steals a lot of work, a lot of goal line work. I think it's just like Kyle lead RB and a Kyle Shanahan offense, game script dependent, et cetera. But, you know, 22.2 drafting his fantasy points, you know, 50% of time or the top 50%.

So I think he's an underrated tournament option if he's low off. All right. I like it. We are going to get out of here one more time. That's plugged 22, 4, 10% off on fantasy points. save 20 for 20 bucks off on OWS. OWS free is also in play if you want to check out a bunch of our stuff for free.

And we will see you back here next week. We will be back at the same time streaming live. Obviously, the videos archived. The podcast is up on podcast feeds. Scott, as always, it's a joy. It's a treat. It's an honor. It's a pleasure to hang out with you.

I will see you next week. I'm sure you and I will be talking throughout the week. and viewers will see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend.