Fantasy Football Daily - 2023 NFC Town Hall with the Fantasy Points Staff

Episode Date: May 22, 2023

Continuing their yearly endeavor, the Fantasy Points staff -- led by John Hansen (@Fantasy_Guru) -- does a deep dive into every NFL team. On today's monster show, John, Adam Caplan (@caplannfl), Brett... Whitefield (@BGWhitefield), Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan), and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) take a fantasy-focused look at the 16 NFC teams. FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:07 It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. All right, everyone. Welcome to the first 2023 town hall here at FantasyPoint.com. I'm John Hanson, and before we introduce the panel, explain to you what the hell this is basically so for the last 10 to 15 years i've been gathering up the people that we've worked with over the years joe dolin tom brolly adam kaplan paul kelly the list goes on and on with the names grand barfield we've gathered up right after the draft
Starting point is 00:00:59 to have a full day sit down we go over all 32 teams we talk about the draft the impacts of free agent acquisitions and losses, coaching changes, the whole deal, gearing up for the upcoming campaign. So the 2023 NFL draft in the books, and we are going to sit down this afternoon and do the NFC. We'll come back and we'll do the AFC in a separate broadcast. So without any further ado, first of all, let's say hello to our guy, Trey behind the glass, our new, I wish we, I knew what his title was, but our guy Trey, um, he's, he's, he, he, He is running this here thing and recording it. It's going to be doing some fine work here.
Starting point is 00:01:43 What is Trey's title? I don't know. He is the maven of all things, videos, social media here at fantasy points.com. But Joe Dillon is here. Director of social media strategy, John. Director of social media strategy here. Very fancy title. Joe Dolan is here.
Starting point is 00:01:59 He's got his analyst cap on. Graham Barfield is here. And of course, our guy, Brett Whitefield, here all from Fantasy Points. And our other guy, Mr. Adam Kaplan, Mr. NFL insider. I'm sure everyone is doing well. And if they weren't, they would lie and say they're doing really, really fantastically. So I'm not even going to ask. Let's get right into it here.
Starting point is 00:02:23 The way we'll kind of go around the room, I think, is I will start with Mr. C. Mr. Kaplan, been out there talking a lot of people. He's out at the combine, just drinking to like four in the morning. he's actually drinking non-acaholic because he's really there to get all the scoops and the skinnies and all that. So we'll start with Mr. C. We'll get his thoughts and then we'll kind of go around the room and discuss these teams heading into 2023. We'll start with the Dallas Cowboys, Mr. Adam Kaplan. First of all, I will ask you.
Starting point is 00:02:57 How are you, sir? How are you? I'm good, man. I'm good. I'm looking forward to another one of these. Gosh, but I'm so old. I remember when we'd be in Atlantic City doing the, things and going to lunch. So things are changed here with Zoom. Yeah, yeah. We've had multiple
Starting point is 00:03:10 locales and now we're all virtual. But, you know, we're going to barrel through the NFC today and we're going to start in the East. Adam, I'll go to you. Number one, I think probably the biggest question I have is, you know, the changing of the guard offensively here, running the offense, Kellynne Moore. I thought that a good job. Mike McCarthy, Brian Schottenheimer. It sounds very boring, Mr. C? What is the word in the street there with that coaching change? Yeah, so what McCarthy wanted a true West Coast offense, that's not
Starting point is 00:03:44 what Kellen Moore runs. So Mike wanted to call the play. Schottenheimer, I will help him. Shottie's really good with quarterbacks, and he's, the thing that people have told me to work with Shottie is that he's really good with discipline. Now, obviously, with Dax's turnover last year, that certainly
Starting point is 00:04:00 will help. Russell's Walson's best half of his career of a season was with Shottonheimer in 2020, well, whatever, for 2020, 2021. So I think this could be good. I know Kellyn Moore did a good job. I know some of the Cowboys fans were not so happy with them, but this is just more McCarthy wanted to run his system,
Starting point is 00:04:17 not Kellan Moore's. And that is the big difference here. We're not talking personnel. We're just talking about scheme. That's the difference. Yeah. Well, Brett, I'll go over to you here with any data slash, you know, film slash, you know, real football thoughts here.
Starting point is 00:04:36 I thought Kellyn Moore, I thought he was pretty good, but it seemed to be a little hit or miss here. Do you have any thoughts? When you heard that Kellyn Moore was departing these Cowboys, you've charted these Cowboys under Kellyn Moore. What was the first thought that you had? I think there's just a philosophical difference from what McCarthy wants to do versus what Callan Moore wants to do.
Starting point is 00:04:58 He's a guy who likes to take advantages of mismatches in the past game. That's what he's, that's what he does. He doesn't really have a scheme he's tied to necessarily. He plays matchups. And depending on the personnel of the defense, he's going to try to get players on the field to exploit certain matchups. And McCarthy is an old school West Coast guy. He wants to run the football.
Starting point is 00:05:19 Well, at least he says he does. Now, whether that actually happens in practice, we will see. But, I mean, their personnel moves don't really shout. We want to run the football more than we did last year, obviously. So I'm interested to see how that. plays out. But ultimately, I just think it was a philosophical difference that caused them to separate. And I think it's a good move probably for both, for both teams, because, you know, Kellan just, it just seemed like his time was up there. Well, let me go right back to you real
Starting point is 00:05:46 quick before we get Graham and Joe worked in here with the tight end situation. Luke Schoonmaker. They used the second round pick on this kid, right? Second and a pretty good capital here. I didn't think he would go as early in the draft. I actually met him and interviewed him. He's a great dude. Boy, I wish I would have known. I'm like, dude, what do you think? Second round.
Starting point is 00:06:09 I don't think he knew or thought he was going to be there in the second round. But what are your thoughts on the short-term and long-term prospects here? I think long-term, we're fine. But short-term, I don't know about him for this year. So maybe Jake Ferguson, I know he's not very athletic. but what were your thoughts on that move there at Tide-end? Yeah, so Schoonmaker playing in that Michigan offense just didn't get a ton of opportunity to showcase his skills as a pass catcher,
Starting point is 00:06:36 especially because they were pretty loaded at Tide-end last year. I mean, they had a kid that transferred to Iowa. They had another kid that was a true freshman that was one of their stand-out players. I think he probably has a lot more pass-receiving chops than people thought coming into the process, which is why many people had them ranked, you know, much lower than a second round pick. I kind of had a fringe day too great on him, you know, that late third, early fourth. So I wasn't super surprised to see him go this early.
Starting point is 00:07:03 I think ultimately he comes in and he actually is kind of similar to Dalton Schultz in a lot of ways in the way he moves. I think he's a little bit better athlete, maybe a little bit better as an inline blocker coming from that Michigan scheme. He's going to have a lot of reps under his belt as a blocker. Blocks really well at the second level. You know, and there's a lot of these, I guess the West Coast run scheme, is going to require Schoonmaker to be very good at digging out linebackers and getting getting his hands on safetys at the second level. So I think that bodes well for him. But like you said, I mean, developmental curve for tight ends is typically a long process. Jake Ferguson, you know, showed signs last year that he was a functional tight end. Peyton Hendershot is another guy to keep an eye. And I actually like HenderShop better as a prospect in Ferguson. And I think ultimately it's going to be a committee approach this year for those guys.
Starting point is 00:07:52 Joe Graham, fantasy stuff going on here. We're going to get to the backfield. I want to get Mr. Kaplan's thoughts on, you know, Deuce Vaughn, the likelihood of Zeke Elliott coming back. Dak Prescott, it seems like Graham, the entire industry or the majority of the industry, seems to be pulling back a little bit from Dak Prescott. What do you talk about his outlook here and your interest in Dak? Yeah, for fantasy, the question with that.
Starting point is 00:08:22 is how much is he going to run? And I think at this stage of his career, we kind of know he's limited to being a pocket passer. So that's going to cap his ceiling for fantasy. I have Anthony Richardson right behind him in my best ball ranks. And I've been staring at it. And I think I'm almost at the point now where I want to put Richardson above deck just because Richardson is such a freak.
Starting point is 00:08:41 Ceilings a little higher because of his rushing ability. But yeah, I mean, Brett made a point earlier. It's like, we know McCarthy wants to run the ball, but how much is he going to do that in practice? and you look at this team, like, I'm looking around. I mean, I think they're going to air it out, man. I mean, you look at the addition of cooks, scowl back off the ACL.
Starting point is 00:08:59 Tony Pollard is not a guy. You're going to get more than 250 carries at most. They could make a moving for agency, but I think structurally this team is still built a throw. Joe, can C.D. Lamb do any better than he did last year with 156 targets in 17 games at a career high catch rate of 69%. I don't know if he can do much better than that. Yeah, but I still have him rank firmly in the first round.
Starting point is 00:09:26 I have him. I've been absolutely gobbling up a CD lamb, AJ Brown kind of turn in best ball so far, which gives me a lot of options because you can stack them with DAC. Maybe you can get hurts. In the third, if it's not a draft where people go. go nuts for quarterbacks. But ultimately, I'm kind of with Graham. And maybe this is more of an Adam question. Like, if the Dallas Cowboys want to like run the ball a ton, it doesn't look like the room as currently constructed is going to be enough. Ronald Jones is there. RICO Dowdell.
Starting point is 00:10:11 Deuce Vaughan weighs 138 pounds. What, Joe, you're not excited for Rojo to get 150 carries in 2023? No, I'm not. Well, there's a lot of talk about Zeke returning to the Cowboys. Yeah, actually, I think there's some merit to that. What market does he have right now besides House? What do you think, Adam? Yeah, so, yeah, Jude's Vaughn is only 5'5 and 180.
Starting point is 00:10:33 So, yeah, he certainly cannot be the number two running back. He's a change-up. They'll go off to figure out kind of how he'll fit in. But, yeah, they're going to have to add a better running back inside. You can't ask Pollard to grind out carries. It's just not built that way. So it's obviously they have to do something. now the thing is they've got leverage here to whether it's Zieg or somebody else
Starting point is 00:10:52 where after the draft so they won't have to pay very much so yeah they I would agree with the sentiment here it's you they have the personnel to spread the ball out there's no question with Gallup coming back now this is almost two years after the ACL he's got to be better yeah he is there he's built to be a shot play player that's why he's there and whenever he now he's not going to get a ton of snaps compared to coax and lamb well when he's in there, you know what he's going to do.
Starting point is 00:11:18 They're going to take shot blades. Yeah. And final thought, too. And I guess it's wrapping up what everyone said, you know, with Gallup, presumably in better health, with cooks added to the mix, probably a lot more, a lot of 11 and, you know, fewer, fewer formations with like two, three tight ends on the field. Maybe that's how they get through this first year with the rookie Luke Schoonmaker. Let's move on here on the fantasy points, 2023 N. F.C. Powwow,
Starting point is 00:11:48 gearing up for the season, the Philadelphia Eagles. Adam, I'll go back to you. Brian Johnson, not the lead singer of ACDC, an offensive coordinator taking over, taking over for Shane Steichen. So let's start
Starting point is 00:12:04 there. I know it's a impossible question to answer, but you know, what are we looking at here with Steichen gone? Is it a potential learning curve here for Johnson and a little bit of a drop off in terms of how sharp they were offensively. Well, the couple things,
Starting point is 00:12:20 Johnson didn't call the plays at the University of Florida for a couple of years. So he does their play long experience. The big part of this, the secret sauce to their passing game, and just really structurally is Kevin Petulow, who got promoted. He's the one that puts the game playing together with the coaches. He's really good, and he could have left.
Starting point is 00:12:41 So the Eagles really value him, so he got promoted. So he'll help him. Johnson and so will Siriani. They play calling said our, Johnson hasn't done it at this level, so we have to see. But the personnel with Sykia's now will probably be there. He should be their slot of request walkers. I expect him to win that job.
Starting point is 00:12:57 Is a shot play guy once in a while? Right, right. He can do everything. You know, it's a smaller guy, but he can run. And with Swift in there, they're going to be spread. They're not going to be a heavy 12 personnel. There'll be more 11. And you kind of know what they are.
Starting point is 00:13:11 They've got incredible personnel. So the best personnel in the National Football League, it. There'll be a battle in training camp first time in years, really since, gosh, 2016, 17, 18 in that area, they haven't had one because it's been mild standards, but it's going to, the main role will be Swift versus Penny. I expect Swift to win that. Game well, unfortunately, because Swift is there is going to lose that third down roll eventually, if not week one. That's pretty much it. I mean, it's all systems go. They're going to be passing off. You think, you think Swift wins the
Starting point is 00:13:45 quote unquote starting job over penny yes i do okay but you don't project swift to have more carries than right well let's put it this way again and we'll get through this as we get through both conferences over the next two weeks a starting running back does not mean 300 touches particularly in this offense yeah they've got gainwall i mentioned swift penny boston scott who won't go away the giant killer and i'm telling you this if he makes it he's going to have some sort of role i just don't know what it'll be it's whirling may they love tray sermon like like whatever happened in San Francisco. I mentioned this too, John, two years ago,
Starting point is 00:14:18 or whatever it was last summer, why they cut him. He's got himself together, and apparently he had great practices last fall. It's hard to keep five backs. I mean, it's, teams just don't do it. But if this guy makes the team,
Starting point is 00:14:31 he might, he would have a role. He probably would dress a game day. Well, Brett Swift has never had more than 151 carries in a season. Of course, Rashad Penny has never had more, than 119 carries. So Swift has got them there, but, you know, ideally, I would imagine it would be optimal if Penny had, you know, 1.5 carries for every one for Swift or something like that.
Starting point is 00:15:01 But your thoughts on Swift and Penny in this back field, the data, I'm sure, is just explosive all over the place, right? I mean, everything looks good. Yeah, I mean, on paper, if you could promise me those two guys, be healthy for an entire season. I would say this is one of the best backfields in the league, especially as far as the way they contrast with each other, right? So Penny is an absolute brute of a runner.
Starting point is 00:15:26 He's very hard to tackle, force him his tackle right through the roof, yards after contact. He is a creator with power. Deander Swift's a creator with elusiveness. Together they make a really dynamic backfield. I just have major questions on, you know, how long that pairing is actually intact. Swift had a very part-time role last year and still couldn't manage to.
Starting point is 00:15:46 The issue of Swift and Penny is a little different. Swift is a little less willing to play through minor injuries where Penny's obviously had like a gazillion catastrophic injuries. So I do wonder if Swift returning home and the change of scenery and him playing for his hometown team kind of encourages him to be a little tougher and mentally strong. And maybe that winning environment will kind of just propel him to, I guess, be a better football player all the way around. If that's true and those things happen and Penny stays.
Starting point is 00:16:12 then holy crap look out this this this backfield's going to be explosive well they should be in good shape regardless between swift penny gainwell boston scott scott boston boston and maybe even trey bert uh tray sermon so we we've got a lot of trays or a lot of uh options here at running back here but joe i'll go to you uh you are mr philadelphia eagles used to uh even work for the website here when i hired you way back in uh what was that the 90s i? I don't even know. 2009. Jalen Hertz, we've been very high on Hertz the last two years.
Starting point is 00:16:50 However, boy, that cost has really climbed now. And he has gotten hurt the last two years. What do you think about Hertz? I mean, obviously the guy's going to produce when healthy, but I don't know about ADP-wise if I'm taking him. Yeah, it's, well, I think the late round quarterback thing, you can still get some functional ones, but, I mean, you go to an underdog best ball draft right now.
Starting point is 00:17:12 and see how many quarterbacks are going inside the top 60 picks. It's a lot. Jaylon Hertz is going inside the top 25 picks. Very rarely can you get him past the early third round. So look, you get what you pay for. The Eagles did an unbelievable job. They didn't have to do a ton to the offense. They rebuilt the running back room.
Starting point is 00:17:34 The offensive line is still elite. And that leads me to, I mean, really two very nitpicky questions for Adam, who obviously knows the team intimately, as well. Do they, do they, a little bit surprised they didn't try to upgrade on, on Quez Watkins, maybe Zakias can do that at him? Yeah. And number two, how confident are they that Cam Juergens can play right guard? Well, okay, let's go to Zikias. Yes, they believe that he could be an upgrade. That's why they sign him. He should be their main slide. He could play outside, but he's smaller. So yeah, he'll be, he can play the Z position, but he really should be able to
Starting point is 00:18:11 he had a rough year and out. He had a shoulder injury, he said, that contributed to the problems that he had. But he really dropped off. And it's the case is on a one-year deal. They gave some guaranteed money at signing, which is interesting. Also from Philly.
Starting point is 00:18:25 Also from Philly. Yeah, another one, but St. Joe's Prep. Yeah, it's really crazy. Well, actually, he's from Jersey, but he went to St. Joe's Prep with Swift for a year or two. Yeah. Graham Barfield.
Starting point is 00:18:36 Oh, sorry. You done at him? Yeah, no. They're not. I expect Joe, Tyler, Scheen, to win the right. car job. It would be a small. Yeah, if he didn't. I would call a small upset. I know he's got to learn the position, but this is a Jeff Stoughton special. There's a reason why they drafted this guy in a third round where other teams I spoke with had him a little bit lower. Stalin believes in him.
Starting point is 00:18:56 This is his guy and I would expect him to win it. Graham, do you think that Devante Smith, wide receiver, of course, is worth a second round pick? I mean, last year's standing would say yes, but man, that that's a little pricey here. He's right there on that cusp. Let's call it 25 overall. You paying that price? I am, yeah. And it's one of those things where it's like,
Starting point is 00:19:23 the Eagles have like the perfect passing offense for us, right? Like we know exactly where the ball is going to go between these three guys. It's going to be Brown, Lillby Smith, and Goddard. And for fantasy, like that's super valuable to me. Like having a super concentrated passing offense. And we saw it last year, DeMontesmith was almost better than AJ Brown. I hesitate saying that because I've had AJ Brown as my dynasty wide receiver one at certain points because he's such a beast. But I mean, Devont to Smith, man, they've got two number ones.
Starting point is 00:19:50 I think, you know, his ceiling sure is a little capped. You can make the T. Higgins argument where it's like he can't really do much better than wide receiver eight because the guy in front of them is just a beast. But all of that being said, I mean, Devanta Smith is a beast in his own right. As long as we're getting 25, 26 percent of targets like we saw last year, yeah, I think the price on him is just a lot more. efficient. I love getting six round last year, John, but yeah, second, early third round makes a ton of sense from. A lot of continuity, not a lot of mystery here other than the backfield in Philadelphia, Dallas got her back. He's a top eight guy, top seven guy, and Brown Smith, little Zekeas, good old line, Jalen Hertz. Big question in the backfield. Let's move on to the New York Giants.
Starting point is 00:20:35 And I'm going to go to you first, Brett. I'm not sure where you've ever. ever been with Daniel Jones. I've always been, I would say a little bit of a Daniel Jones apologist, especially early in the career. I was very encouraged by that rookie year. We kind of like lost track of them for a couple of years. I didn't bother because I just knew the vibes were terrible. Jason Garrett was brutal. We all know what happened last year. It went as good as anyone could have possibly envisioned with Brian Dayball and the offense with Danny Dives. So much so that my man was like just fumbling, bumble, and stumbling, all of the place as a rookie. And then last year, he had like the best interception rate in the league.
Starting point is 00:21:24 And he fumbled like four times. So let's start there because, you know, they have done so much to improve the situation around Dan, Jones and based on his showing last year, based on Dayball being awesome and Kafka being really good, I just don't see how he fails. Honestly, your thoughts on this guy's development and his situation this year. I love the, I don't like Jalen Hyatt, but they needed a Jalen Hyatt. I like how they got a center. I mean, granted, they got 46 slot receivers, but they now have depth here.
Starting point is 00:22:01 Your thoughts here, Brett, on Daniel Jones. So I like to call Daniel Jones Sukalos Josh Allen. He's Josh Allen if you're on a diet. You're trying to avoid the sugar. They're very similar skill set there. He's just a light man's version of it. So I really like what they're doing.
Starting point is 00:22:19 When you look at the track that Buffalo took to getting Josh Allen improvement in the accuracy and the way he reads defenses, they did it with giving him true separators, speedy receivers that could make a difference in the short, intermediate, and deep parts of the field. and they attacked it with volume this year. They didn't go out and get like, you know, an A.J. Brown caliber receiver,
Starting point is 00:22:39 but they did go out and they added Paris Campbell and Darren Waller and Jalen Hyatt and they brought back Sterling Shepard. So I think, you know, as good as Jones played last year, they're doubling down and supporting that contract decision by giving him all these weapons. You mentioned the center and John Michael Schmidt. He's a dude. He's going to make that offensive line a lot better. All the arrows are pointing up for Daniel Jones.
Starting point is 00:23:01 and I've actually targeted him myself in fantasy. I know I'm not a fantasy guy per se, but I've been going after him in the Dynasty Leagues for sure. I mean, the dude was top 12. He was a QB1 last year with like Randos and receiver here. So it's looking really good. Brett, I'll stick with you real quick before we move on. But Eric Gray, I thought he's pretty good.
Starting point is 00:23:22 I mean, watching him at Mobile, I'm like, I know he's not the biggest guy. He's probably an RB2, but I feel like he's a guy. if you need to call on him for two, three weeks, Sequan's down, let's say. I feel like Eric Gray can get it done here. Your thoughts on this guy's got a three-down skill set and, you know, makes you miss. He's got some juice. So what do you thoughts?
Starting point is 00:23:44 He was a fun guy to watch because he doesn't have like a skill set he's lacking in. He's kind of just good at everything or I should say average at everything and a little bit above average of other things. One thing that stuck out to me is down at the Senior Bowl when they were doing a lot of the one-on-one past drills. he was tearing dudes up and like he did not put that on tape and he had a lot of moments where we were like, who the hell was that?
Starting point is 00:24:05 Like it was Eric Gray. He was shredding. So I think there's some upside there as a pass catcher as well. I love him as a rotational back with Sequin. I think he's got some juice to his game as well. I really like that. That's another good move, Adam. I mean, the GM here and dayball,
Starting point is 00:24:24 this new regime, they clearly know what the hell they're doing. They have a plan. Any thoughts on what we've all outlined here? I mean, how does Daniel Jones fail? I feel like I'm really underselling him with 20 touchdown passes, yet he comes in, spoiler alert, QB10 on our board here with our forthcoming projections. Yeah, Dable's got a great support staff from Kafka, the offensive staff,
Starting point is 00:24:48 the receivers coach, the offensive line coach. I told giant fans before last season started, they're going to be much better than you think. It's coaching superior and that turned out to happen. the one issue they have on offense was at center we got John Michael Schmitz who's two centers that center was a big problem Feliciano was really a backup
Starting point is 00:25:06 they were in their line they were playing guys who they didn't want to have to play but they had a bunch of they had like four or five guys hurt last season but all the guys that are under contract will hurt last season are ready to go so that helps so her line's going to be better you add Waller and they bet they needed an athlete
Starting point is 00:25:22 they certainly need an athlete at the 10m position we got Barkley's back He's on the tag. Hyatt could run. I know he's not a consistent player, but he could run. Now, the one issue I have, John, is the receiver core. You mentioned all the slot receivers. Is it better than last year?
Starting point is 00:25:36 Yeah. But Wondell Robinson major injury, Shepard major injury. Hodgson's now full season. Let's see how he can handle himself. We know about Harris Campbell's injury history. Jameson Crowder's injury history. Colin Johnson, who they actually liked last year,
Starting point is 00:25:51 towards Achilles. There's a lot to count on here with a bunch of guys who were hurt last season. So we'll see how it goes, but the group as a whole unit is better. Waller's a big key, Joe, in my opinion, you know, because he can kind of be your one, really. Like if he's healthy, he can be your primary guy, you know, with other close seconds and thirds, and then kind of piecemeal it from there.
Starting point is 00:26:19 The problem, though, Joe, is other than Waller, what wide receiver are we targeting here? I don't see one that really jumps off the screen to me, honestly. They have a million slot receivers on this team. And it's really, even Jalen Hyatt, you know, who you look at these deep threats and you're like, well, that's a guy who plays outside. Jalen Hyatt did a significant portion of his damage in college from the slot. And he's running, he's running basically with 15 yards of cushion and just running by everybody.
Starting point is 00:26:51 not going to happen in the NFL. The thing about Waller is they very clearly view him as their big receiver. Like that's that they made the trade. They haven't really signed somebody who can do that or drafted somebody who can do that. But for fantasy purposes, I have no freaking clue what to do with Darren Waller because I think there's a legitimate chance that the guys just washed. Yeah. So it's a really tricky projection for me. I don't know where Graham has them, but Waller is a super tricky projection for me.
Starting point is 00:27:26 And if he stays healthy, he's going to lead this team in receiving. I just don't know how confident I am in that. Yeah, Graham, your thoughts? I mean, we need you to predict the future. Will Waller stay healthy? I mean, I know that's a difficult question, but I know our guy, Scott Barrett, had an issue with my projection for Waller, but he also has to understand that's a per game basis.
Starting point is 00:27:47 So when the projections are up, loaded and you sort by points per game, Waller will be a top six guy. But I'm not going top six for a guy who's 30 plus. And, you know, obviously last year was a catastrophe. At least Graham, he did come on strong late, though. Yeah, I share a similar concern to Joe that he might have lost this step. But if you look at some of the metrics, especially like yards per route run on when he was lined up as like an inline tied in.
Starting point is 00:28:18 I think he's going to line up more in line as well. right right it was like he was still really good yeah he's still really really good so maybe maybe the giants and dable have um an idea that they want to play him more on the line of scrimmage as opposed to a big slot the other thing is like dable is a former tight ends coach uh at alabama like he kind of knows of what he's doing with these guys so look waller if he stays healthy i'm projecting 24 25 percent target chair and then the rest of these receivers like they're just going to rotate it'll just be who's healthy, who fits the game plan. I think Slateon will be the only constant on the outside.
Starting point is 00:28:53 I mean, I wish I knew Sterling Shepard status. I mean, Jones loves Sterling Shepard, but I mean, we can't count on this guy for more than like five quarters of action. Let's move on here. Yeah. One thing, they're paying Slaten six million to see. Right.
Starting point is 00:29:07 But on Graham's point, to justify he's going to have to get the football. We know he's not a high-bium guy. Right. But there's only one receiver you could have. as great of his story as Hodgins was. Right. Came out of nowhere. Great story, no doubt about it.
Starting point is 00:29:21 I know some people on the league. I've talked to the question whether he's a starting NFL receiver. Slaten's that one guy. And another thing on Warrer, the Raiders were trying to move him. It's crazy. They signed his extension one year later. They don't want him on the roster. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:33 What do they know? He turns 31 this fall. As Joe said, maybe so, we'll see. Yep. Moving on to the Washington commanders. And Adam will go back to you. you, any word yet on the, I guess the leash that presumes starter Sam Howell has because I know they're paying Jacoby Berset a good amount of coin. It just feels like, yeah, we'll give you a
Starting point is 00:30:00 shot, Sam Howell, but if we're struggling even before Halloween, you know, they might pull that plug. Oh, sure. I mean, it's it's real simple. They have to win with him. And that's, they're not going to ask him for a lot of them. They gave away the answers to the test back at their closing press conference since season. I mean, Martin Mayhew, the GM and Ron made it clear they don't want him throwing. Actually, whoever the quarterback is, unless how bombs and training camp, he'll definitely be the starter. But I would project, unless they're behind 27, 20 attempts a game, they're not going to ask him to throw the ball a lot. They're going to be committed to run the football. This is what Ron wants. Now, the enemy will bring in Danny Reed's
Starting point is 00:30:45 him. Not everyone's going to call it the same way Andy does. My cap doesn't call it the same way and he does. So, Erk the enemy knows it's run the football, win with defense. It's not what we want because you look at the past our group is pretty good. That's not the way Ron doesn't care about that. He wants to hide the quarterback, run the football, one with defense. They want to win 17 to 14. That's what they want. What's the word on Eric B. Enemy, though, when it comes down to designing the passing plays and calling passing plays, that's the big question would be enemy, right? Sure. I mean, he's a run game guy by trade. Kafka was their past game designer when they work together. Andy always called the plays. Erks is heavily involved in it,
Starting point is 00:31:30 but I would say it remains to be seen. But again, he's got Annie's playbook. He could use a diversification of the personnel, which is, which is Andy's a master at it. It's phenomenal at it. So you would think the enemy had worked for him for several years. Yeah. So play for Andy in Philly in 2000. So he's going to bring in what some of those concepts. But as I've told you, John, for 20 years, we work together. Play pongs at art. Not everyone can do it. It sounds good. But until you've done it, it may not look the same. I mean, this could go either way. I mean, they have plenty of talent here, especially. receiver and in the backfield.
Starting point is 00:32:10 They don't want to throw them. Right, right. But, you know, if they have to throw it, when they do, it could not go very well, basically, with a completely unproven Sam Howell. He's got an arm. I'll say this. He does.
Starting point is 00:32:23 He's got an arm. Smaller than you like, but he could, he can spit it. I mean, but he's the perfect guy, Brett. Run the ball. You know, he's like Ryan Tannale, right? Run, run, run, run, run. because he doesn't necessarily throw a great touch, timing, anticipation. So you're run, run, run, play action work off of that.
Starting point is 00:32:44 Is that Sam Howell in a nutshell? Is that something close to what Sam Howell is? Yeah, for sure. The play action stuff is going to be huge for them. It's depressing to hear Adam say they don't want to throw the ball because it's delicious to say the least. I love the combo of McLaurin and Dots and then Curtis Samuels are really good three as well as a slot guy.
Starting point is 00:33:05 So, but I mean, Howell is a guy, he's a really good athlete, too. Like, this is a guy you can, you can start to build your offense similarly, similarly to the way the giants have, to the way the Eagles have where you're constantly putting defenses in conflict, right? So a lot of read option tags. I would love to see them go that direction. And the enemy's done it in Kansas City. Well, at least the staff he worked on and did it in Kansas City.
Starting point is 00:33:25 So a lot of read option tags, a lot of RPO's, some of those, if they're going to throw it, you know, put those second level defenders in conflict and hit those backslant slants. things of that nature. I think that would benefit same howl's skill set really well. Then you can take shots as you get that defense to cheat and trigger the run early. That's like a real trend now, right?
Starting point is 00:33:43 Like it's one thing like, okay, great. You run, great. But we're going to use your threat to really help put you in a good spot, right? I mean, Adam, is that what chain Stuyken essentially did with Jalen Hertz the last two years? Oh, with RPO's, yeah, sure, no doubt. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:34:01 Obviously, he was a major part of the run game. We didn't really talk about it with Billy, but getting back to this. Brett's right. I mean, you look at McLaren Dotson and Samuel could play. I know he's overpaid. I get that. Diami Brown is the poor. Logan Thomas is finally healthy.
Starting point is 00:34:17 I think you love that kid of Monty Rogers, the former college quarterback. Cole Turner's a slot tight end. There's so much there for passing the football, but I'm just telling you the way Ron thinks he's like a lot of these guys. And ironically, who's his defense coordinator, Jack Del Rio? Yeah, he'll know what's coming there. Yeah, old school.
Starting point is 00:34:34 Well, what are they going to do at tight end? I was a little surprised. I guess they'll see if someone emerges. Hope Logan Thomas can hang in there for another year, I guess. But, Adam, I was a little surprised that didn't dip into this deep tight end class. Well, they're paying Logan's. They decide to keep him with note. He's got a salary cap number of almost $9 million.
Starting point is 00:34:57 They kept him. He's had, you know, he's had injury problems. But they like Cole Turner out of Nevada. I know that for a fact. He didn't play much, but he can run, John. He's the kid we sold the senior ball two years ago with six six. They have enough there. John Bates is a Y cut end mostly.
Starting point is 00:35:16 So, yeah, they got plenty there. I mean, they just, their issue has been the offensive line. We don't want to make this an offensive line show. But their offensive line's been a major disappointment. Yeah. You were the one who turned us on to the fact that last year they didn't love Antonio Gibson. Obviously, the Brian Robbins. and tragedy might have forced their hand a little bit.
Starting point is 00:35:36 And then they come out, interestingly, they draft this Chris Rodriguez in the sixth round now. They said they had a third round grade on them. Teams say that stuff all the time. But is there a chance that this guy does actually get a meaningful role here? Scott Barrett would kill me if I didn't ask that question, by the way. I would be surprised if he did. Now, again, we're only in May, so we're not going to know for a while.
Starting point is 00:35:57 But Gibson's got his passing down role. And then you've got Robin's, you got Brian Robbins. who's a leadback. So it's pretty much iron out here. And Rodriguez is an interesting kid who is compactly built. He's got a lot of bulk to him. No, he should be the, Jared Patterson, obviously, who flashed two years ago is certainly in trouble now because Rodriguez should be able to beat him out. And the guy who won't go away to Jonathan Williams, they brought him back. So, yeah, I don't, I don't see Rodriguez beating Gibson out. That's certainly a surprise and he's got that role. And also, Gibson now is on the final year.
Starting point is 00:36:33 is deal. John brought this up on our show a couple weeks ago, and so true. We need to take a harder look at these guys and Bonny or their rookie deals. There's a lot of history with these guys coming off. I forget who mentioned all of a sudden these guys seem to stay healthy. I think Brett said. Oh, yeah. No, I mean, this is something I did 20 years ago. But it was really for 15 years, but it's, yeah.
Starting point is 00:36:55 But it's back being prevalent because especially now, like, that's like the only, it's like the contract for these running backs. so the most motivated men in the NFL, it seems, are running backs in the final year of their rookie deal. Because running backs don't matter. They've been hearing that for 10 damn years, too, you know. Brett, back to you. I watched Chris Rodriguez at the senior bowl. I don't know if he stood out.
Starting point is 00:37:20 I checked my notes. I wrote, big dude moves fairly well for size, I think, and I thought he was comfortable catching the ball. Is he talented enough to a challenge for snaps right away? maybe as like a short yardage situational guy. I think it's funny that they came out and said they had a third round grade on him. That seems a little ridiculous to be quite honest. I had a six on Rodriguez. That's exactly where they took him.
Starting point is 00:37:45 So I think they got, you know, appropriate value on him there. But he's a short yardage guy to me. He's a little stiff in the hips. I don't think he's, he doesn't catch the ball poorly, but he's just also not a good mover in space. I don't think he's ever going to win a one-on-one matchup. Maybe you get him involved in the checkdown game or the screen game,
Starting point is 00:38:01 but he's not going to go out there and win routes. So I see him as a bulldozer right now. For fantasy, both of these guys, Robinson and Gibson are undervalued, I think. For their roles, I mean, Robinson, like, in half PBR, you know, we're talking sitting here, talking about how Sam Howe is going to run read option. And, you know, keep in mind, Sam Howell ran for 800 yards and had like 10 touchdown in this final year of college. Like, he can move.
Starting point is 00:38:26 If they're going to run the ball, both of these backs are pretty undervalued in fantasy. you can make a case for both of them. Robinson is the early down guy who's going to get the touchdowns. And Gibson is like, finally he gets this passing down role. You know, JD McKissick's gone. There's definitely a role here for Gibson. And both played well to close out last season. Robinson started really slow.
Starting point is 00:38:45 They, you know, do a massive part to his incident, but really started to come on late last year. And then Gibson, you know, really picked it up too. So I like both of these guys for fantasy. I know that's kind of a cop-out, but based on Christ, I think both are good picks right now. Yeah, Brett, with Robinson, I'd like to be decisive. I don't want to kind of ride the fence on it, but I'm leaning positive here.
Starting point is 00:39:09 What do you think? I thought he ran well. I thought he looked good. Something about that uniform. He was a lot more angular than I remember him at the Senior Bowl or at Alabama here. But what were your impressions of Brian Robinson? And what do you think about him going forward? Is he still ascending?
Starting point is 00:39:26 Yeah, I was a huge fan of his coming out. I thought he was a really. underrated prospect last year. I had a firm day two grade on him to get him at the end of the third round. I really liked what I saw on tape as a rookie. I know Graham mentioned the slow start, but obviously dealing with what he had to deal with, that was kind of expected. I think he actually performed really well despite that. Kind of shocked me. I do, I've heard from somebody. I'm not, I don't remember quite who, but I think he's playing a little bit lighter, a lighter weight than he was at Alabama. Alabama, he was close to 230. Oh, he definitely is. Yeah, I think now he's down,
Starting point is 00:39:58 down in the high teens, maybe 218, 219. Yeah. That would help a lot. And some of the angular movements you're talking about there, I think that's why you're seeing that. But I mean, he's great for that scheme. If they start tag and read option on all these runs too, I mean, he's going to be a nightmare to deal with. I don't think he was with Howell at the senior bowl. I remember Robinson on the left side catching checkdowns from Kenny Pickett and Howell, I think, was on the other side.
Starting point is 00:40:26 That would have been cool, though, to reunite him with his senior bowl guy. This is the Fantasy Points, 2023 NFC Powwow, where we gather up and, you know, go around the room and get everyone's thoughts on all the players. And as these teams are being formed here in the offseason, we're doing, like I said, NFC. Let's move over to the NFC North. Brett, it's all you. It's all Detroit Lions, baby. I will ask you, though, do you have any concerns about their passing game to open the season without Jameson Williams? Because we are a little thin here.
Starting point is 00:41:07 We're going to look at a 33-year-old Marvin Jones. Josh Reynolds is probably 30 now at this point. We love Amon Ra, but those two dudes Jones and Reynolds in a rookie tight end and not a ton otherwise here. So let me start there. Do you have any concerns that we know what they're going to do, but might Jared Gough, you know, get off to a little bit of slow start throwing it. No, I don't think so. So Jameson, Jameson was never really part of their offense last year.
Starting point is 00:41:33 So while that is a disappointment, they're going to miss him for six, six weeks. He was honestly never really part of the plan. To start last year, you're basically looking at virtually the same group. DJ Chark was coming off the ACL. He was not right to start the season. And he didn't get right until about week 11, week 12 last year. Yeah. So, I mean, they came out, they came out guns ablaze.
Starting point is 00:41:53 And they've added same reporter to the mix who, from the guys, guys I've talked to, you know, around the organization, it sounds like they're actually going to have him in the some of the Amman Ra St. Brown role that we've seen in the last two years. And Amman Ra has been, he's been pounding the table to play more on the outside, probably for that incoming paycheck he's about to get. But yeah, he's been pounding the table to play more outside. I think you could see a lot more 12 personnel from them this year with, you know, Leporta being like a bigger slot type guy who plays that Amon role. And then you're going to see. Caleb Raymond also is an insanely productive. I know.
Starting point is 00:42:26 For them for two years in a row now. I know. I really think they like what they. It's all about scheme for them, right? Getting guys open in space. Sure. Charg up the catch. Gibbs is going to help too.
Starting point is 00:42:37 He's going to get the full swift role there. And I think he keeps the chains moving for them pretty easily in the past game. Well, I think Brad was coming at that more from an NFL perspective, which is fair. Graham, fantasy-wise, though, golf's going to run for like 16 yards on the season. Yeah. So I'm not that interested in Jared Goff at QB19 for fantasy. Well, you got to keep in mind with this team last year. I mean, this was the shootout team for fantasy.
Starting point is 00:43:08 Their defense was so freaking bad. They gave up so many points that all Goff had to do is Chuck. And yeah, sure, they've gotten better. They've got a little better in the back end for sure. But I still think this defense is a work in progress, especially among the past rush. They're going to give up points once again. again. I think Goff is
Starting point is 00:43:27 appropriately priced at QB19. I think the larger concern is like, okay, if I'm on Rale works outside more, that's great. Honestly, I think he can do it. They have no one to lift the lid besides Raymond. They really don't have a deep threat right now. That's actually my bigger
Starting point is 00:43:42 concern for this offense is until James and Williams comes back, they, you know, at least for the first six weeks of the season, they don't really have anybody to lift the lid. But I think golf would be just fine. Yeah, I'm not a big chart guy, but probably downgrade from a chart to Marv Jones. Joe, you seem to be all in already on Jemir Gibbs.
Starting point is 00:44:02 But you know how we were kind of talking about like assigning, you know, some sort of rating to a player that takes into consideration his projection end cost? Well, when you do that with these lion running backs, David Montgomery is a big winner because David Montgomery is going off the board, 35 picks after Jemir Gibbs. But talk about what you expect from Gibbs and the backfield. So the way I look at it is this. The Detroit Lions last year had two running backs finish in the top 20 in fantasy points per game.
Starting point is 00:44:39 They didn't like those running backs because they moved on from both of them. And they think they improved on both guys. They signed David Montgomery to a three-year deal, which we know in this day and age is a significant commitment to a running back. And then they drafted a guy with the 12th pick in the draft, which in any era is a significant investment in a running back. Yeah. So they had two top 20 running backs last year and they think they improved on both guys. I think, I know like Graham said, oh, like it was a cop out with the commander's running backs. Maybe it's a cop out with these running backs too because I like them both at their current cost.
Starting point is 00:45:16 Jemir Gibbs is about a fourth rounder. his draft status pushed David Montgomery down the board, and I think both guys can pay off at their current ADP. Sure, sure. Graham, any thoughts there? I would have to say, though, Dave is probably the better ROI candidate considering the lowered cost. Maybe, maybe.
Starting point is 00:45:37 Keep in mind, I mean, since 2010, we've now seen 12 running backs go in the first 15 picks overall in the draft, right? Including Gibbs and Robinson, the previous 10, right? nine of those 10 had a top 12 RB1 season for fantasy within their first two years. The only one who didn't do it was CJ Spiller. Jemir Gibbs with the draft capital, his skill set with this offense, how we know they want to build him around their backs. Like, I'm right there with Joe.
Starting point is 00:46:03 Like, I think he's a borderline RB1. I think Montgomery's rightfully pushed down the board just because we're not going to get the passing down work that we thought we could get when SWIP was still there. I am definitely bullish on Gibbs. I mean, they told us exactly what they thought of him. They said they were going to take him over Bijon Robinson. I don't know about that, but they absolutely love this guy. Adam, do you think Ben Johnson has gotten to a place where, I mean, it sure feels like we're trusting Jemir Gibbs like we would trust Alvin Camara in like 2017, even though Camara was actually slow out of the gate there.
Starting point is 00:46:40 There's either they had Peterson, but it just seems like we're assuming, oh, Gibbs has gone to a great offense. we all know the lines great and a great coordinator so just just assume it's going to work you know maybe it is you know but i'm just playing devil's advocate here are we making out ben johnson to be a superstar already is that premature what do you thoughts no he's really good that panthers might have hired him had he not backed out in a least they wanted to talk to him but he decided he's going to take another year of seasoning here which i think is a smart move I have a high trial. He hits my trusted play followers, John.
Starting point is 00:47:18 He's phenomenal. He's talking the lines about him. He's, he kind of knew it early on, and certain things had to happen, and he got moated, and he handled the role beautifully. He's a really good coach,
Starting point is 00:47:29 and I get your question. This is different for him, now getting a guy like Gibbs, but the way it works, John, is they always have these meetings for the draft. Okay, if we draft this player, what are your thoughts, how we're going to use them?
Starting point is 00:47:41 It's a good combination of Montgomery, the grinder, Montgomery's their leadback, but James is the guy who's going to make the explosive plays. They'll detach him. By the way, San Lipporter is going to play some slot tight end. He's going to be a move tight end for them. James Mitchell, they were excited about.
Starting point is 00:47:58 Remember, John? I told you about him. He tours ACL Virginia Tech, I think. He came back second half the season, but they want to take a look at him. They're still a little light of tight end. That's a little concern of mine, but the concern is now with Williams out,
Starting point is 00:48:14 what's the offense going to look like. I would agree early on maybe a little bit more 12, but if Williams, when he comes back on suspension, is in shape, knows what he's doing, but he certainly would be a lot more 11. Yeah, I happen to notice that Mitchell, for what it's worth, which is not much, but he caught all, every target, 11 targets, 11 catches.
Starting point is 00:48:35 But Brett, your thoughts on the backfield here. I have Gibbs with 170 carries, to 230 for Montgomery. That's 400 carries for just those two in the backfield. I love it. I mean, that's their identity. That's what they want to do. You know, all the cliches about Dan Campbell,
Starting point is 00:48:58 I mean, they are cliches, but they're also pretty true. You know, he talks about taking the opponent out into deep water and drowning them, and that's how you do it right there is 400 carries between your top two backs. So I think they like Craig Reynolds still, too, guys. I think, yeah, chance he gets worked in. I know they've gloated about Muhammad Ibray. Rahim, the UDFA running back they signed to, and they got Greg Bell from last year, who they gave like 200 grand to guaranteed money.
Starting point is 00:49:22 So as a UDFA last year. So I think they just love the running backs now. And I think you will definitely see a heavy diet of all those guys. Boy, many, many, many, many cases this year of the rich getting richer or teams getting measurably improved in the draft. And as we move along, we go to the Chicago Bears, who I still. still don't know what that was. I was watching weeks one, two, and three last year. I still don't know. But, you know, everything they've done is, looks good. Darnel Wright to plug in and
Starting point is 00:49:59 right tackle. Obviously, DJ Moore. You get a Darnel Mooney potential replacement. You know, they've done a lot of good things here. The draft for Sean Johnson. it sure seems like, you know, everything's going to work and they're going to continue to ascend with Justin Fields in year number two. Brett, I'll go back to you. I don't know exactly where you were on Fields. I am still a little skeptical. I mean, I didn't see enough growth to believe that we're just ready, just going to rocket ship to the moon here this year with Justin Fields. But what are your thoughts on Fields in year three here?
Starting point is 00:50:43 year two of the system and with this better supporting cast. Yeah, so a lot of the issues he had coming out of school for me was the processing stuff, pre and post nap. I think you still see a lot of that on tape, but I'm going to hedge here and say that they found something that obviously works with him, and this is this is this QB heavy run scheme. Right. This is going to open up passing lanes.
Starting point is 00:51:04 They didn't have anyone to throw the ball to last year. Let's just be honest. So as bad as we want to say Fields was pre and postnap last year, it's like, well, he didn't have many office. options. They lack talent across the board. And pretty much, like, I don't like a lot of fantasy guys like Darnel Mooney. I just think he's a manned player. I just think he's okay.
Starting point is 00:51:22 Adding DJ more, though, is going to be absolutely tremendous for them. I think Fields going into year three, they have, they know what he does well now. They have this whole scheme built around him. You know, another one of these situations where we're putting second level defenders in conflict, a lot of RPO heavy stuff, a lot of read option stuff. Yeah. Yeah. I think DJ Moore is going to, he's going to elevate fields to the next level, just like we saw with Stefan Dick, Josh Allen and totally around Jaylon Hertz. He's a downfield guy and we yet, we really haven't seen Fields getting his downfield throws going.
Starting point is 00:51:56 That's like his strength. He's like an individual play guy. Like if you need a long drive, we got to throw the ball at good luck. But you need a brilliant individual play to DJ Moore down the field. Fields will provide that. absolutely i feels like he's a if you just take the collection of parts that he is and you give him to the right mechanic he can build you a Ferrari out of that right right the concern after year one was do we have a Toyota Prius here do we actually have a Ferrari now it's like they're there's somewhere
Starting point is 00:52:27 in between right and i think it's it's putting the icing on the cake to get to get the most out of that and maybe by the end of this year they they feel like they have a Ferrari graham i'll go to you fields basically down the stretch was qb5 and it's like they did a ton just to have him maintain QB5 as an ADP for this year, which is probably, you know, that's encouraging. But will you take them at QB5 when the rubber meets the road? I'm going to go with no for me. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:01 So, John, I'm on the rocket ship. I'm fueling it up. I'm the captain. I'm going to the moon here with Justin. You're the captain. You're the captain now. I'm the captain now. Look at me.
Starting point is 00:53:13 Look at me. In all seriousness, I mean, John, if you remember about a year and a half ago, I think I was like the one guy in the room saying like, whoa, I don't know if Justin Fields is like all that accurate of a quarterback and that might like really hold him back. Yeah. It still might. Justin Fields is never going to be top 16 in our accuracy rankings.
Starting point is 00:53:34 Like, that's fine. But for fantasy, like I'm 100% with Brad. How many, how many quarterbacks do we finally? scene get a number one receiver, right, DJ Moore, and take that next step. I think DJ Moore is that quality of player. I don't think he's like the AJ Brown alpha type player, but he's that quality of a player where he really elevates this offense and he can play every position. It's going to allow Mooney to be a little more flexible, a lot Chase Claypole to be a little more flexible. You know, I think it's going to really open up this offense. And oh, by the way,
Starting point is 00:54:03 they added two good backs. Like David Montgomery was great last year, but like I think Deonté forming in Roshan Johnson are two great fits for this offense. They've now got three good backs who fit with this run game. More excitingly, I know we just talked about the lines here, we're talking bears. This bear's defense is awful. Like, they're going to go so many points. I mean, Fields is going to have to be the guy. I just go back to after that slow start last year, John, we've won through four, zero QB1 for fantasy performances. But from that point on, he was nothing but a top 10 score at the position. And with this defense, with these weapons,
Starting point is 00:54:41 with the offensive line upgrades, like, I'm all in. I will say, to your point about the bear day, I finished up defensive team projections yesterday. They've got to be dead last. The bears were dead last. And it prompted me to increase fields as attempts for sure. Joe, well, let me ask you this way, Joe. I don't necessarily disagree.
Starting point is 00:55:07 with Fields as a pick. But I'm probably not going to do it because, again, I can get Trevor Lawrence 25 picks later. I think I trust Lawrence a little bit more than Fields. What are your thoughts? I trust them more. I don't think Lawrence has the kind of explosive upside. The big debate for me is Justin Fields vis-a-vis Lamar Jackson. They're going very close to each other.
Starting point is 00:55:31 And I just trust Lamar Jackson's track record more. I like the offensive coordinator change that the Ravens made. I like the fact that the Ravens went out. I'm not sure. I'm not sure how much O'Dell Beckham has left, but they made a concerted effort to upgrade the receiving core going and getting Zay Flowers. And I just trust Lamar Jackson more.
Starting point is 00:55:53 Yeah. If I've already drafted Lamar a couple of times in the best ball mania and the puppy, I don't think I have a Fields pick yet. The thing that I do like about Fields is it's very easy to stack him with DJ Moore. but Lamar is also really easy to stack with his wide receivers. So that's really been the debate that I've had internally, and I simply just trust Lamar Jackson more. Brett, in the backfield, your guy, Rocheon Johnson, rock solid.
Starting point is 00:56:22 But I feel like Deonté Foreman might be a little more explosive, but how do you compare these two bigger backs? Yeah, I mean, that's a great question. And I, Foreman definitely is like an early down prototype, a big and explosive. I just think Rochon is, he just does everything well. Like he, right, right. He was one of my favorite players in this class. I thought they got great value on him in the fourth round.
Starting point is 00:56:48 This is exactly why the running backs don't matter conversation happens, because you can get a guy like Rocheon Johnson in the fourth round in a lot of years. For last year, it was Brian Robinson at the end of the third round. So, man, I don't know how that, that share is going to work out. It just seems like they don't like Khalil Herbert as, much as you would think they do based on how he's been. Rochon to me is a direct David Montgomery replacement. Like that's how I view.
Starting point is 00:57:12 They only gave him $3 million. Not much that was guaranteed one year deal. Maybe it doesn't happen this year for Rochon, but I think he's the long-term solution at running back, in my opinion. Adam, any thoughts? Real quick, John, not to cut you off, but kick it back to you, Brett. How do you square that? Because, like, Khalil Herbert is really freaking good.
Starting point is 00:57:29 Like, yards after contact, he was second league only to Tony Pau. last year. Missed forced tackles, he was second behind Nick Chubb. Like a small sample, sure, but I mean, he was really, really good for them last year. Yeah, so two things of note with Herbert. When he's on the field, their scheme, it changes. They go to a more a spread look with all that read option stuff. So he, he on average was seeing less than a whole box defender per carry than David Montgomery was. Yeah. Montgomery was also used like on four times as many short yardage. runs from like heavy personnel. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:06 I know a lot of people compare the two guys stats. That's why I'm bringing Montgomery into this. But so Montgomery's, you know, efficiency numbers were a little bit worse than Herberts, but a lot of that is just, you know, predicated on the types of ways they are being used. I do think Herbert's good personally. He just, he's not a guy who likes to do the dirty work. He's really, really bad in past pro. I think when you have a young developing quarterback, that's a more valuable skill than
Starting point is 00:58:27 the fanist community likes to realize sometimes. I think that's kind of kept them off the field a little bit. Ironically, they take Rochon, who's probably the best pass protector running back in the draft. That's a good tip, Brett. Be wary of over-examining YPC for short-yardage goal line running backs, right? Yep. Yep. I mean, if it's first and goal at the one, dude just got one yard on a carry.
Starting point is 00:58:54 Let's move on to the Green Bay Packers. And again, I feel it feels like the NFL is. like really reloading this year. And we're getting a whole new crop of fantasy characters. And in Green Bay, it's extremely prevalent. They do it the right way. They always get the O line right. It's been right pretty much for 10, 15 years.
Starting point is 00:59:22 Adam, you know, what's your general thought on Jordan Love or the word in the street? What have you heard? You've been. Very good. Yeah, really good, right? Yeah. See, they run in the old school West Coast offense by the floor. They're running the one, they're running the Walsh offense.
Starting point is 00:59:42 So it's not easy to learn. It's completely different that he had in Nevada. And you can't expect the light to go on immediately. And they thought last off season he really had just did a good job of processing. I know it's very limited, but he did look good against the Eagles in that second half. I like the past target group. I get it's young. There's no experience at all.
Starting point is 01:00:03 They're all rookies or second year players. It would behoove them to bring someone in who's done it before. But if you look at Watson, Dobbs, Reed, Musgrave, and Kraft, DeGuar will now be strictly in line. This is not a bad group. And you mentioned the offensive line. The hope is Bakhtiari's knees right. It's been a while. He's been healthy in three years.
Starting point is 01:00:24 But they're going young here. There's nothing wrong with it. I just wish they had a little bit more experience with castor. It's almost like if you were, if you had to draft an NFL team and get all their skill players for dynasty, like I'm going Green Bay here, top three, the way they've assembled the roster here, Brett. Is it possible that Jordan Love excels right out of the gate here despite the youthfulness? Because, you know, A, he's been here. This is year down four.
Starting point is 01:00:55 B, he's very talented. C, the running backs are really, really important here. And then last but not least, D, perhaps, perhaps Jordan Love will embrace this system a little bit more than Rogers did and just, you know, be a point guard back there. I mean, your thoughts on love, you may think I'm insane in the membrane for that angle here or you may totally agree. I have no idea.
Starting point is 01:01:23 But I'll say this. I mean, John, I come on your show on Sirius every week. I pound the table for teams supporting young quarterbacks. And what did the Packers go do? They drafted five freaking pass catchers, three receivers and two tight ends. They said, we've got to get better in these areas. I absolutely love the direction. Jaden Reed.
Starting point is 01:01:42 John, we've talked a bunch of times. That's our guy. I love Jaden Reed. And they needed a high volume guy in that offense. I don't think Watson has the profile to be a high volume guy. He's a big player, extraordinary. And he's going to give them a lot of big plays. Romeo Dubs is definitely more of a three possession type receiver.
Starting point is 01:01:59 Totally. Yeah, getting that high volume slot guy to control the middle of the field. And you're partnering him with Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, who's a beast after the catch. Like Jordan Love is set up to succeed. I know these guys are young, but they're all going to grow together. So I might not be the biggest Jordan Love guy, but I do think they've given him a tremendous situation. Pretty good offensive line as well. Obviously, the run game's really important to them.
Starting point is 01:02:20 They've got two good backs. I absolutely love what the Packers have done. And I hate to say that as a Detroit guy, too. It's like just when we thought, you know, the corner was being turned for Detroit to take control that division. It could be short-lived because I like the way the Green Bay is team building. Well, stick around because I'm a, I was a fan of the Minnesota Vikings before you were born, okay? And I don't give a rat's ass about the Vikings as of compares to fantasy. And I'd rather, Jaden Reed blow up.
Starting point is 01:02:48 You know, I'd be fine if Jaden Reed blow up and the Vikings didn't win a Super Bowl in the next 10 years because we ain't winning crap anyway. Joe, I'll go to you. You know, Aaron Jones, he's just kind of there the last two, three years. He's just there. You know, and I've been saying for years that they're likely, like, looking to extend his career, basically, by being judicious with the touch totals there, if you will. I kind of like them in this environment here. Your thoughts on these backs?
Starting point is 01:03:19 I do, too. I'm looking at some of the underdog drafts that I've done so far. And Aaron Jones is generally available fourth round. I mean, you can get a pretty cheap investment into Aaron Jones fifth round. And I do like them in this environment. I think they're going to run the ball. I think that's what they want to do to help Jordan Love along. another team where they have two running backs who are both pretty affordable and I kind of like them both.
Starting point is 01:03:52 And Aaron Jones is part of that. I think he's a guy if you load up on wide receivers early, maybe you drafted, say, Jonathan Taylor in the first round. He could be your RB2 and I think he could be your RB2 for relatively cheap. Ram, any interest in Jordan Love around quarterback 20? I mean, he's not cheap. Things are going to have to go well for him just to deliver. a decent ROI at that cost, but your thoughts? Yeah, for season long fantasy, I'm not going to be, I'm going to be in the market for an
Starting point is 01:04:24 old league quarterback. So for season long, I won't be there for underdog and best ball stacking. He's fine. I mean, if you take Christian Watson early, you can bump up Jordan Love. Love in this offense, though, is just not what I'm really going to be overloading on. I think there's going to be some growing pains here between just all the youth. Love did look better. Small sample looked much better last year than he did in the previous year or the pre-year.
Starting point is 01:04:46 season before that. So I do think he's going to be better than a lot of people have kind of like hated on him for. So I'm definitely with you there in that aspect. But I think we've got a long way to go here. I've got to below C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young in my best ball rankings right now. So I'm taking those two rookies over over love. He might though run a little bit more than people think. You know, maybe that zone read in that offense is a little bit more prevalent, you know, and he runs for 250 and, you know, two or three touchdowns. That would help. go to Minnesota Vikings here second year under Kevin O'Connell. Adam, I'll go to you first. I know Graham was asking me about the projection I've done early on here, and it's not even published
Starting point is 01:05:29 yet, but it will be this week on Dalvin Cook. And the bottom line is my spidey sense is telling me that Dalvin Cook, you know, probably about 40 to 50 percent chance is not even on the team here. But what do you think the latest is? Have you heard anything about their plans? for Dalvin Cook this year. Yeah, no, the thing is they've not figured out what they do with his contract. And that's what they're working through. Remember, he had a shoulder surgery,
Starting point is 01:05:55 so you can't cut a guy who's hurt. So once that's done, they'll figure out what they want to do with them going forward. But you can only talk now, A, if he's on the team, what's going to look like it? If he's not, Madison's the leadback. Chandler and McBride, who I like, which is the seventh runner, it's not for everybody,
Starting point is 01:06:14 would back up. But Madison absolutely would be the leadback. That's the way they look at. Brett, Dwayne McBride, does he have any chance to factor into the equation as the guy for the future here for Minnesota, the rookie McBride? Probably not long term. Yeah. I think if they definitely move on from Cook and Madison's a lead back,
Starting point is 01:06:41 I don't think Madison's this extraordinary player where he's going to hold off other guys from getting touch. Agreed. Yeah. So McBride in that type of situation could definitely establish himself as a player. The college tape is tremendous. It just happened to be at UAB and he only caught five passes in three years. So you're not going to be the factor in the past game, but he does have some skills making guys miss and being elusive and breaking tackles, things of that nature. I like Ty Chandler. I don't know if you remember him from North Carolina, but that guy's got on tap to potential in the passing game. He could line him up out wide. Yeah, I like Ty Chandler as well. He was an underrated guy in last year's class last year's cycle for sure.
Starting point is 01:07:18 And I think from what I've heard, they like him too. So that could be another guy with some good upside there. Yeah. And that I think that's part of it. The fact that they took McBride and they have Chandler and they re-signed Madison so much surprisingly. I'm like, oh boy, I'm adding this up and it doesn't bode well for Dalvin. But so that's it, Graham, to answer your question about that.
Starting point is 01:07:39 I don't know what to do with the guy. But I can tell you this. One thing I like Graham and, you. mentioned it with the Eagles. It's very similar. Her cousins, hopefully this O-Line is going to be the best it's been in 15 years.
Starting point is 01:07:55 It should be. This should be the year that the Vikings have their best O-line in a decade plus. But we'll see if that actually comes to fruition. But we know Kirk is going to be the same guy. And I love it because I know Osborne's there, but to me, I'm doing the projections. I'm digging deep here.
Starting point is 01:08:10 It's like when they throw in the football, Jefferson, Hawkinson, Addison, you can pretty much end the list. Do you agree with that assessment? Yeah, absolutely. Addison is the, it's such a good fit for them because we know what Spielman in this offense, you know, who they value.
Starting point is 01:08:25 They want, you know, receivers that can play all three positions. Addison certainly can do that. He's going to be a great addition next to Justin Jefferson, man. I mean, you know, Jefferson got unlocked a little bit in this offense once they finally had like a middle of the field target that actually had a pulse in T.J. Hawkinson late last season. Just think about what it's going to be like now that they can have the layer of Addison. Kirk Cousins, I think, for fantasy, has never gotten the respect he was due.
Starting point is 01:08:52 He's finally getting it now. You're having to pay a little bit of a premium for him compared to previous years, I should say. The ceiling is non-existent because he doesn't run. But, I mean, I think statistically this could definitely be his best season yet with all these weapons and the offensive line upgrades like you outlined. Yep. Brett, you're not a big Hawkinson guy, I don't think. I'm sure he don't think he's a stiff, though, right?
Starting point is 01:09:15 I mean, I do have the man with, let's see here, 86 grabs, which I think would tie his career high. Yeah, I think that's fine. I mean, I'm not a Hawkinson guy from the standpoint of I thought it was absurd. He was a top 10 pick in the NFL, and then I think it's absurd.
Starting point is 01:09:34 The Vikings gave up a second and third round pick for him, and they're probably going to give a massive contract. So I'm not a Hawkinson guy from that. standpoint, but he's still a very talented player. He's still a good tight end, probably top five guy in the league as far as talent goes. So I think with Addison in the mix now, he's a perfect compliment to what they're going to do. That trio should be deadly. Let's move on to the NFC South Atlanta Falcons. And Brett, you are, you know, you've got some ties here to this organization. You're, you're, you're an expert on Arthur Smith, apparently.
Starting point is 01:10:10 You know, Dave Ragon. Your thoughts on, well, let me just throw out my initial projection for Bejohn, 280 carries in 16 and a half games. So, I mean, I'm projecting a lot of availability. But 37 grabs for just under 10 yards of reception. I have Alger with 115 carries. and I basically have running backs not named Bijon with 200 carries. So your thoughts on that alone right there. Again, 280 carries is a lot, but again, there's going to be room for others.
Starting point is 01:10:51 Yeah, well, we know they're going to run the ball at a rate that's to their detriment for sure. So that's, I think you're in the right ballpark there. I would be heartbroken if Bejohn only had 37 catches, though, at the end of the year. He's such a talented option to pet. I know. I know. But that's a lot. That's a lot for a guy who also gets 280 carries, I think.
Starting point is 01:11:14 I mean, Brett, the problem is they're only going to throw it 90 times this year. He's getting at least a third of that. Well, hey, that factored into it 100%. That's a nightmare, John. It really is. Arthur Smith, you know what's coming. They're not going to let rid of it. It's going to hide the quarterback.
Starting point is 01:11:35 In fact, they're telling you what they're telling you. they want to do. They didn't even draft a receiver. It's just incredible. Yeah, that's true. How do you go into the season with Matt Collins as a starter? It's a nice story. Mac is a guy can run. He's got great straight line speed. Scotty Miller's your three. Like this is, this is not an NFL passing game. Like that's not the way you build your roster. Right. They're telling you what they're doing. They're not from the football. True. True. True. Are they going to use Scotty Miller as a basically a, you know, a prototypical white slot receiver here because I mean he's been a downfield guy but yeah I would think more inside
Starting point is 01:12:12 and outside Drake and and hollons will be your outside receivers algear were back up robinson when they really want to grind carries algear could be the closer I don't know about paterson yet i need to ask someone there what their plan is they're paying them over five million and then pits the hope here is that ridder could find some accuracy because we know how bad fits was before he got hurt wasn't his fault it's because the quarterback couldn't hit him and they're going to be super duper heavy 12. They're, they will probably, if they're not ranked 32nd and 11 personnel,
Starting point is 01:12:43 they'll certainly be bottom three. Jono Smith will be there, mostly their in line tighter. Johnny Smith is, as far as I'm concerned, he's been converted to right tackle. I'd like to ignore him if I could. And Parker Hessey, my guy, Parker Hessey. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 01:12:58 Brett, talk about Kyle Pitts. How much better could he have done last year with better quarterback play and how much better will he do this year with better quarterback play? I just don't know how much better, but answer those two questions for me. Yeah, I mean, Pitts is incredible.
Starting point is 01:13:19 When you put on the tape and you, like, I watch just the plays he's not even targeted on. I mean, you see a dynamic route runner, a dynamic athlete who's basically just always open. It's incredible they couldn't get him the ball more. Some of that's on Arthur's shoulders too. That's not all quarterback play. there were, you know, there were, there were a lot of times where they just did not go to them.
Starting point is 01:13:38 There were games they would open up where Pitts would get three targets on the first drive and not see another one until the third quarter, fourth quarter. It's just that cannot happen when you have a guy that you've invested a top five pick in. With his pedigree, with his talent, it just, it shouldn't happen. So, yeah, in theory, the, you know, the only place pits can go from last year is up, right? So even if Ritter takes a small step forward that should benefit Pitts, The guy, and I'm curious on Adams' take, have you heard anything about Ryan Tannenhill landing on the Falcons at some point?
Starting point is 01:14:10 Oh, we talked about that on the radio show today, actually. No. I mean, that just is a natural fit, Brett, because they continue to speculate that, you know, he's on. I haven't heard that. I mean, it's, they got to get, they got to get Levis's head right and the Titans have to figure him out first to see where he's at. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:14:31 Levis had, let me see, I'm told the turktoe injury, two left shoulder injuries. There's a leadership question with him, which is part of why he dropped. I've heard absolutely nothing about Ryan Taniel being traded. And they got no interest anyway. It wasn't like, these were beating down the door. In fact, I know they denied this on Derek Henry. We'll talk tights next week. I get some great stuff on tights, really good stuff.
Starting point is 01:14:58 Yeah, well, I mean, Brett, I, I, know why you went there because it boy it makes a lot of sense that would be a big time upgrade how big would that be for Kyle Pitts oh because on an individual play basis tanahill can get him the ball absolutely big time um well Drake London was mentioned uh I've been pretty actively in front on on London here just because of this opportunity and I went back and and thought about the connection there in those four games with Ritter. Everything was up, targets. It was overnight a game, catch rate,
Starting point is 01:15:36 yard per target. Everything was up. And like I said, they've done nothing. So am I crazy? Or is Drake London one of the best ascending picks at wide receiver this year? I've got a midwide receiver 18 with 85 grabs, Graham. Yeah, we got to keep in mind
Starting point is 01:15:54 the games he played with Ritter. Pitz was hurt. I mean, with the knee injury. Oh, I know. I know. I got it I've been like fantasy points as number one Kyle Pitts doubter for fantasy like I've never been a doubter of his ability or talent or anything like that but like I think this is the year to get back in like they're going to figure and like Brett was saying I mean I remember a number of games last year they get him started early in the game get him targeted and he just completely fall off the wayside the good news is like they have no one else to throw to There was a number of plays last year where, yeah, okay, sure, Arthur Smith could have done a better job of getting Pitts to the ball. But, like, you know, Pitts was wide open on a couple of throws that Mario had invested on. So we're talking about very, very small margins here where Pitts like missed out on a few monster games. And if he has one or two of those monster games, we're not even having this conversation about like, oh, he's bouncing back.
Starting point is 01:16:51 It's like, no, he's just coming back from an injury. Yeah, and the price got a little cheaper, too. A cheaper. John, Kyle Pitts was a third round pick last year. He's going into six now. This is where he should have been going all along. Hey, I was proud of myself. I did not have Kyle Pitts on my target list last year.
Starting point is 01:17:10 And I'm always about upside. I'm like, no, no, third round, no. But fifth, six, I'm all in. Fully expecting John Smith to score five touchdowns, by the way, and on 12 catches. Don't either. Yeah, I know. I know.
Starting point is 01:17:25 But is anybody else with me on Drake London? in terms of being like more there on pits than I am on London. I just I I just I think this this offense is going to be hilariously outdated. But it's going to be good for Bejan Robinson who, John, you have them at RB3 and I actually think, you know, I think Scott pushed back on that. I think there's a good argument for him at RB2, quite frankly. If Echler gets, if Echler is not back with the chargers, you could make the case.
Starting point is 01:17:57 Yeah. I think. Yeah. I mean, this was the, this team was third in rushing last year, John. Now, everybody in NFL analysis is going to say, well, they didn't need to draft a running back. They were third in rushing. But from our game, we have to say, all right, they're going to plot Bijon Robinson into an offense that was already an elite running offense. That there's going to be massive production here for Bison. I mean, we could argue till the cows come home in terms of like, oh, you're wasted a pick because you had Tyler Al Jir, averaging five years of carry.
Starting point is 01:18:26 Whatever. I mean, they made you. Guys, Caleb Huntley averaged nearly five yards of characters. Right, right. Bejohn's going to average like six. They want some juice, man. And I just put the big thing with him
Starting point is 01:18:39 is in the past game. I told you John on our show, there's really no excuse for Bejohn not to have at least 50 receptions. But you look at their past target. I know they don't want to throw the football. I get all that. But you don't draft Bejohn Robinson
Starting point is 01:18:53 just to have him as a runner. He's elite. out he's elite outside of the backfield I mean if you take away the catches for former wide receiver core Darrell Patterson Falcon running backs last year caught fewer than 30 balls I get it
Starting point is 01:19:09 but this guy is a unicorn man because if honestly if he gets his 30 and he plays all 17 games they should they should just quit I have Bijon Robinson catching like a 20% more than the entire running back room last year.
Starting point is 01:19:26 I probably didn't even have a catch, right? Did he have one? He had two for three yards. Harrison, yeah. Yeah. Avery Williams had a moment there where he was. Anyway. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:19:40 I'm with Adam on that. Bejohn is just so special as a basketball. I mean, John, we've talked about it, man. When Texas used them in the slot or out wide, he was running legit wide receiver routes against corner. Oh, sure. Oh. I thought I was ahead of the curve giving him
Starting point is 01:19:58 freaking 37 grabs. I mean, you guys are going 50. John, my problem. Now, on your point, John, when I say 50, where I'll agree with you is Arthur Smith has not shown me. He has any idea to develop a past game. Like, none. He hasn't shown me yet.
Starting point is 01:20:10 No. By the way, Derek Henry needed Arthur Smith to leave the building before he started doing anything in the passing game. But continue. The bottom line is when you draft a guy who is the best running back since McCaffrey, you know why people say that. Because the guy's elite in the past game. Figure it to bleep out, don't waste a pay-pick overall, make him a running back.
Starting point is 01:20:31 He's a dual-threat back. That's the best point of all. Like, I hear that point, and I agree. Like, it's kind of a waste of resources. Oh, he's a running back. Oh, wait a second. He's going to catch 50 balls to all. I don't play quarterbacking as a play caller.
Starting point is 01:20:46 Just based on what he's done. And we can blame all we want on personnel. There's no excuse here. He wanted this player, okay? Show us and you know how to use. Well, an honor of Brett and Adam, I am upping Bijon Robinson's projection, 38 now for 410. All right, let's move on. And I think we spend way too much time on these Falcons.
Starting point is 01:21:10 Let's go to the Panthers here. And you know what? I understand everything they're doing. I don't really want to draft anyone here. other than maybe Mingo late. Brett will go to you. Bryce Young Mingo. Would you have thought of that combo, you know, pre-draft?
Starting point is 01:21:32 Because we often do see, you know, teams use their number one pick on a quarterback. They go back and they get a receiver from that class. Your thoughts on that combo. I don't imagine that would have come to mind, but who knows? Young and Mingo, what do you thoughts? When you think about what Frank Wright
Starting point is 01:21:50 likes to do on offense. He really likes when quarterbacks play within rhythm and structure of the offense. Bryce Young can for sure do that, but there's a lot of tape of him not doing that and him, you know, relying really heavily on out of structure plays. Mingo gives him
Starting point is 01:22:06 a guy you can structure targets to, you know, whether you're working the RPO game, screens, shallow crossers. I think this is all about getting Bryce Young in rhythm and yeah, and an easy target in the short parts of the field. Mingo can also win deep too. So I think goes a complete package receiver that can develop into a potentially a number one at some point.
Starting point is 01:22:24 But I just like the pairing from the standpoint of. I know Reich really wants that disciplined pocket passer. So let's get him a target that allows him to play that way. Because shoot, you look at that depth chart. They're not working with the whole lot there. So it's kind of like Brock Purdy, just getting the ball to debaugh. Yeah. Exactly what it is.
Starting point is 01:22:43 Yeah. Well, I don't have much else here. I got one. I got one. You didn't have some good stuff on Miles Sanders, Adam, go. Oh, yeah. Sanders, I think, has a very good chance to be their three down back, which was just interesting because the Eagles did not see that at all. That's why Gamewell took down the third down role last season. So that's good for fantasy. Now we know about his injury
Starting point is 01:23:05 history. It's back with New Stalia coaching for two years in Philly. Hubbard's the two. He definitely came on. He did a good job with that role. Just the story of Sanders in terms of what he's capable of doing. You have to go back to his rookie season when he had 50 receptions. He could, by the way, he's explosive in the past game. I know it's been three years. He's been a disaster since then.
Starting point is 01:23:28 But he really surprised us because he didn't catch the ball off Penn State. And then his hands, his bad hands took over. That's why he lost that third down roll. But just that's their thought processes. I understand it they think it'll be a three down back. And there'll be heavy 12 personnel with Hearst and Ian Thomas and Tommy
Starting point is 01:23:46 Humble. Chark had ankle. He had a follow-up ankle surgery. He's had this problematic ankle for years. They think they finally got it right. And then I would bet Beelan will leave them in a resett. That would be my thought. If he plays like 15 games, I think he'll
Starting point is 01:24:02 still lead them in a step. Yeah, Graham, I've got it. Thielen leading them with 60 grabs. Mingo coming in next at 41. Shark at 37, Marshall of 38. They're like freaking the same guy almost. So then my guy, I told everyone he stunk two years ago.
Starting point is 01:24:21 Leviska Chanel, uh, climbing up the rear here and shy Smith. Uh, any thoughts on that projected, uh, production? Yeah, I think I mentioned you in Discord. I think we're a little low in Chark. Um, he came along nicely for the lines in the back half of last year. Uh, he's really their only deep threat with some juice on the outside. I like Chark for best ball. I know you said you're not really interested in anybody in this offense.
Starting point is 01:24:45 I got to say, I love Miles. Sanders at this cost right here. I mean, he's going in the back half of the fifth round, early six round and best ball drafts right now. I think Adam's right. I think they're going to try to play him on three downs. You look at this depth chart. They only really have Chuba Hubbard behind him. And Duke Staley was a part of the running back coach room when he was drafted in Philadelphia. I mean, this is his guy. And that was his rookie season, Miles Sanders's rookie season. That was his by far the main season he was, excuse me, that was his by far his highest season in terms of receiving production was that rookie season. So I definitely buy it. The other thing is like he is
Starting point is 01:25:21 such a strong fit for Reich's outside zone scheme. I mean, Sanders was one of the best off tackle runners last year in the league. Reich loves to run that outside zone stuff and out of shotgun. I think Miles Sanders is an awesome, awesome fit for this offense. And I think he's massively discounted in fantasy this season. We do have him over the markets currently. And I did that projection. So I'm certainly not down on them. But I guess I'll take them. But I'm not like, oh, I'm not waking up a draft day. Like, oh, baby, can't wait to get Miles Sanders. No, I know, John, but it's like, you know, you start your draft. Let's say you start receiver running back. You get Jonathan Taylor and CD Lamb. You can wait. You can wait. You can take three more
Starting point is 01:26:02 receivers and get Miles Sanders as your RB2 in the fifth or six round. Like, that's, that's money. And John, let's see what are going to share carry. Well, no, no one. Chuba is okay. Thanks, John. Yeah, he was better last year. Actually, Hubbard was, they're pretty happy with him, girl. He, he, uh, the light went all of them. He was actually pretty good. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:26:21 Yeah, I know. The year before he stunk. The year before he did stay. Terrible two years ago, but he actually started come on. In fact, that's why they didn't sign a veteran to beat the two behind Sanders. John, they didn't get Cam Peoples, though. They did get Cam Peoples, the big back out of App State. So when you think about not being excited to draft Miles Sanders,
Starting point is 01:26:42 and this will go for a guy like Aaron Jones, who we talked about as well. And there's a ton of other running backs in that range. The thing I have to point out is if you get into underdog drafts, the running backs in that fifth, sixth round range are so much more appealing than the wide receivers. It's ridiculous. Yeah, yeah. It's just ridiculous how much more. You've got to plan accordingly.
Starting point is 01:27:06 Yeah, yeah, plan accordingly. Right? Yeah, load up on receivers. I mean, now under this, to be fair, Underdog is so wide receiver drunk, it's outrageous, but it just has pushed the values to the running back position. You have to go, you have to roll with the punches in those drafts. Let's go to Tampa Bay. Look, I'll cut to the chase.
Starting point is 01:27:27 The real concern is the new OC Dave Canales, never calling plays, although I think that's an upgrade over Byron Lefowitz from what I saw last year. The loss of the goat is big. What is Baker at this point? Should he actually become a baker? Because, you know, the football has not been very good. You know, maybe he can get into the donut bagel business or something. But, you know, the real concern would be that they suck, like really bad. And they start tanking it, looking for Caleb Williams.
Starting point is 01:28:05 And then Rashad White is just in an awful situation. I would definitely downgrade all the receivers. Now, I'll tell you this, they targeted Mayfield at the combine. I mean, they've really liked his tape. I know it was limited with the Rams, but this is got they targeted. Okay. But it is Mayfield. He's not the player he once was.
Starting point is 01:28:23 How could you feel bullish on Godwin and Evans when you have a guy that you don't know how long he's going to last as the starter? And the Trask is an arm. He can't move very well, is the word I got. Yeah. With an arm and John Wolford is a word. Yeah, it's more Baker. he just turned 28 and he's
Starting point is 01:28:41 it's over. Well, maybe not over. Well, you know, Brett, what are your thoughts on, I will say this, though. Dave Canales was given a lot of credit for what they didn't see out of last year. I know he never called plays, but developing
Starting point is 01:28:58 Gino. And the O line, boy, it should be better. You get worse now at left tackle. Then that Cody Maw kid with like three missing teeth. I really really dig. I think they win Ryan Jansen back. So they will be blocking it up, most likely, a little bit better. But do you worry about like just a full on straight up suckage this
Starting point is 01:29:20 year for Tampa? John, the thing that's really weird about their offseason is they're, they treated it like they're still trying to win the Super Bowl. Right, right. We reloading or rebuilding? Yeah, they brought back everybody. I mean, they brought back the, you know, Jamel Dean. They brought back Levante David. And then they went and drafted for need. They didn't draft for future. Yeah, that's true. Yeah, they went, you know, got the right guard and Cody Mock or right tackle, whatever he ends up playing. Their biggest need on defense was pass rushing from the interior.
Starting point is 01:29:47 They go get Collijah Cancy. It's like, yeah, Kansi may have been the best player there, but it also seems like maybe you were drafting for need. And anytime you're doing that, that suggests you feel like you're in a win now window. And I know that division is really bad. Maybe they do feel like they can win that division and get to the playoffs and cause a headache for somebody. But I just felt like it was a really strange application of resources all offseason.
Starting point is 01:30:07 And yeah, I think the risk is. definitely that they suck. I mean, they sucked last year. They had Tom Brady. So yeah. Then again, they are in that damn NFC South. So you could you could suck for three months and still be right in the thick of it to make the playoffs.
Starting point is 01:30:23 Is Rashad White a tough one to grade? Like, I mean, look, the hands were unbelievable. But, I mean, it was an impressive running the rock.
Starting point is 01:30:32 But that said, he was probably better than Leonard. So, I mean, how do you grade Rashad behind this depleted O line last year? Do you, I mean, what do you do with that information? Yeah, his, I mean, his efficiency metrics were awful. His ability to create beyond his blockers was really poor too.
Starting point is 01:30:49 So it is really hard to grade because the circumstances, it seems like regardless of that, when you have the past catchers they have and you have Tom Brady's a quarterback, you should be able to run the ball better than he did. It was disappointing because I loved him coming out. Ultimately, I think he can really only go up. The thing that's concerning is I think Jeremy Fowler reported today that they're looking at Zekeel,
Starting point is 01:31:09 Ezekiel Elliott as a potential guy that could rain on Rashad White's parade pretty quickly there. But that would continue the narrative that they're going for their gusto, right? Like, that's not a rebuild. They don't have a number two. The problem is they don't have a number two. Chase Simmons is really not a guy you can Brian carries with. They need another back. There's no question about it.
Starting point is 01:31:31 Sean Bonds on the Lance Service deal. He's failed to impress. Sean Tucker's there who has a chance. He could be a factor. Yeah. They're desperate. they signed Ronnie Brown, okay, running back Ronnie Brown. No, it's a different one out of Shepard.
Starting point is 01:31:43 Just threw that out there. But yeah, yeah, that would be the concern. But on the other hand, maybe Baker can just hold down the fort. The defense isn't awful and they block it up a little bit better. I'd like to see Rashad, you know, actually with some stuff blocked up for him. But Brett, do you agree, though, like some of the best hands I've ever seen on a running back? Oh, he's got great hands, natural receiver for sure. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:32:11 Moving on here, the Norley and Saints. Well, this is, Adam will start in the backfield with the Kendry Miller selection and Jamal Williams. You know, what's the latest on your thoughts on Camara? Like, do you put them on another team? Do you put about six games? It's a matter if does you get the six game suspension or not. by the letter of the law.
Starting point is 01:32:37 He should, but there's nothing definitive yet. So it'll be Williams is the two. They're paying him to be the two. Miller would be the three. Dwayne Washington, only play some specials. You've got, you know, Benjamin's there. There's not a lot of mystery to what this is going to be. We know what their offensive line.
Starting point is 01:32:50 They're all back. Pending now will be the full-time left tackle. The question is, can Michael Thomas stay on the field? Now, could Rashid, Shaheed, what his role is going to be? He'll play on the outside. and they loved Juan Johnson, man. They paid him really, really well. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:33:08 With Payson Hill Business contract, and there's not a lot of mystery for what this thing's going to be. Well, are we going to be more 11 with Adam Troutman moved off the team here and A.T. Perry being drafted. I mean, Joanne Johnson and Tayson and Tayson Hill.
Starting point is 01:33:28 That would, I don't know what, what formation you're in when Taysam Hills on them? John, I love that you wanted to be. We haven't posted the initial projections yet, but I love you being aggressive on Juan Johnson. I will say this, and I want Adam's opinion on this, John, I looked at our initial projection run, again, not posted yet, guys. I thought you were really low on Chris Alabe.
Starting point is 01:33:50 Oh, yeah, I already moved him up. Okay, yeah. How do they feel about Alave, Adam? Love him, no. He's been everything they thought he would be. He's probably been a little better. I would say. And it's just they don't,
Starting point is 01:34:04 yeah, in fact, they don't really have a number two. Taser Hill's not an in-line blocker, so they probably could have to look at another tight end. I'm interested to see, because it's Dennis Allen being the head coach, and they don't want to be pass-happy with Derrickar. But if Thomas could just stay on the field for like 14 games with the Lave and Shaheed,
Starting point is 01:34:23 and they want him to have a bigger role, he turned out to be a little bit better than they expected. Yeah. What this thing could look like? again and not be pass heavy, but when they do throw the football, you've got Alave who's a borderline stud. He's the opposite is very good. He's a schedule.
Starting point is 01:34:38 And Shaheed's a kid. They're trying to figure out what his body could be. He might, I know a lot of people are pegged him just to be a deep breath, but he certainly can do a lot more than that. Yeah. And Joe, I certainly understand Alave, you know, the upside. You know, I'm never going to back away from that. But to explain why I didn't have him with a little bit more.
Starting point is 01:35:00 I think it's what Adam just said. You know, would Michael, can Michael Thomas somehow play a whole year? If so, that's going to take away. But I really do think Rashid Shaheed is still ascending. Brett, do you have any thoughts there? I don't know if this guy is just a deep threat. The Saints are really good at finding guys come out of nowhere. And I feel like they did that with Rashid Shahid.
Starting point is 01:35:23 Any thoughts on this kid? Yeah, for sure. So obviously he came out of nowhere. He was off my radar even in I watch. you know, 300 prospects every year. So he was off my radar, but a stat that we have at Fantasy Points data that's not quite publicly available,
Starting point is 01:35:41 even available to you guys, which we're still working on it, is separation charting. We chart separation every single play. Shahid just taking entry-level glimpses at that. He ranks really highly in separation charting. Obviously, it's a limited volume. Now, the caveat there is Olave also ranks very, very high.
Starting point is 01:35:57 I think Olave was a top five guy last year. in the entire NFL as a rookie. So that's going to be, yeah. So, I mean, they found two guys that can separate really well. I think that just bodes well for the offense in general. So I'm not sure Shaheed's much of a threat to Alave, but I definitely think they found a guy there that can play. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:36:14 Yeah, Graham, you know, what are your thoughts here? Alave talent-wise, I would say would a guy like that normally is going to be in my top 12. Just talent alone. But I'm a little bit lower because, again, I don't think they're going to going to throw out a ton with Derrick Carr. Should a live A be in our top 12? Right now I haven't at 16, though. I did move him up.
Starting point is 01:36:37 Yeah, I have him firmly in my top 12. I'm highest on him in our staff bestball ranks. Dude's a baller. I mean, he led all receivers last year in yards per route run versus man coverage. Beat everybody. Justin Jefferson. Jamar Chase, like literally all the best receivers in the NFL. He was better on a yards per round run basis against man coverage.
Starting point is 01:36:59 I always go back to that Olave was a great touchdown score at Ohio State too. Didn't get a ton of opportunities last year. And, you know, Jamal Williams will get the goal line stuff too. But I think Olave got a little unlucky at the touchdown department. I'm very bullish on Olave. It's just like you look at all of like, I always think of like rookie production and adjusting it for not only age, but draft capital too. And like, Alave is like right in line with some of the elites at the position. So I think it's wheels up.
Starting point is 01:37:28 I think we can't count on Michael Thomas. I think he is a good little player, but he's not going to be a target guy. I'm all in on the lobby here. Well, I mean, he definitely fits the profile of somebody I'm always, usually all in on too. So I'll bump it up a little bit
Starting point is 01:37:45 and I'll move him over, D-K and Debo. My one concern with the Lave is, like, if you look at his target, scur-rout run, he was not super, super elite in that. Like, just didn't get a ton of volume. maybe that's going to be, you know, something to keep our eye on. But, like, I mean, everything all structurally, big quarterback up, well, not big
Starting point is 01:38:05 quarterback upgrade, but quarterback upgrade, roll another year in the offense. Man, I think it's wheels up. Brett, any thoughts on Alave? Like, just scratching the surface kind of a guy? Or did he show a lot that all he needs to do at this point is just almost maintain? Yeah, I mean, both? Just scratching the surface? but also just needs to maintain.
Starting point is 01:38:29 I mean, it can't be understated the quarterback upgrade he got with Derek Carr. I'm a big Derek Carr apologist. So really, really like the fit there. But to Graham's point, too, Graham was talking about the targets per route run. I think a lot of they started kind of slow because they were basically giving him the rookie nine route treatment. It's like,
Starting point is 01:38:47 hey, you're just, you're fast and you can run a straight line really good. So you're going to run a lot of nine routes and open up, you know, everything underneath the view. Yeah. They realized, well, crap, this guy can actually play it too. So we're going to start feeding him the ball at a high. level. And if you look at the way his season tracked, those targets, you know, per route, run
Starting point is 01:39:03 went up as the, as the season went on. So if that, if that holds, I think he's going to be dynamite. One more, Brett. When Michael Thomas gets hurt and misses time, is your boy A.T. Perry equipped to slide on right on in there? I would love to say yes, but the NFL obviously disagreed with me there. It was a six-round pick. I don't know why. I've literally heard nothing about, you know, the league viewed him that way. I mean, 184 teams passed out or 184 opportunities to draft him. And everyone said no until the 185th chance. So I don't know.
Starting point is 01:39:39 I do like the talent, though. I'll stand on my evaluation for now at least. Yeah, sure. If Tom's got out, I think Perry can play a little bit. By the way, this means very little, but we watch Jake Hainer in Mobile.
Starting point is 01:39:50 And yeah, look good. I forgot. I told Adam this. My guy, Maurice Jones, Drew, like coached him. in Pop Warner.
Starting point is 01:39:59 So knows him really well. You know what his comp was? He called him like a baby this or a poor man's this. And I could not believe that I actually saw it. He called him very like a baby Joe Burrow or like a, I did see a little burrow. He has that swagger. Yeah, it's a swagger.
Starting point is 01:40:20 You think it's the swag? It's the swagger. It's the leadership. It's the alpha dog. I know I'm the best, even though he's not the best. We were watching with the senior bowl. He took complete control.
Starting point is 01:40:29 those practices. Exactly. The coach on the field, he was, you know, he was literally showing quarterbacks how to run the drills that they're running. That's like, I'm sure every team, that's probably why he went as high as he did for a guy with, you know, he's like 5-11 and not the best arm in the world, but I think teams saw that in him like, hey, this guy is a coach on the field. He's going to be a lot of backup just because it was his mind and the way he thinks.
Starting point is 01:40:50 So, yeah, I can see that swagger as a burrow type thing for sure. I saw a little bit, too, in the way, like kind of navigate in the pocket. you know and very much so yeah yeah yeah i was like that blew my mind i was like damn man i saw it right away uh all right let's move on nfc west uh Arizona cardinals um does anyone really know what this offense is going to look like uh let's start there adam do you yeah it'll be pet sin comes from the it's kind of funny to say this from the um kevin spansky coaching tree they're very close that thing is they'll they'll be heavy a 12 personnel depending on if everybody's healthy
Starting point is 01:41:30 there'll be more 12 than 11 Ertz is back from the ACL injury Tray McBride with a surprisingly draft from the second round is there so that'll be part of it Hopkins right now is on the team they're going to have to figure out what they're going to do with his contract nobody wanted his contract that's why he wasn't traded
Starting point is 01:41:45 Hollywood Brown on the final of his deal and Dorch is back your guy Zach Pascoals that are blocked Michael Wilson's a guy know John you like and then of course course Murray won't be ready until after the season starts. So you've got to deal with that. And Harris Johnson, by the way, he's, he's, he's, he's, he's, he's, he's, he's, he's, he's,
Starting point is 01:42:07 he's an eye beholder of this guy, based on offensive line coaches. Uh, their offense line still problem, John. It's not. Oh, it's, yeah, it's bad. Real bad. Well, if, uh, if D'Andre Hopkins is moved off, Brett, Michael Wilson, I'm sure he can line up anywhere of that guy, right? four-year player. He looked damn good at that senior ball that week, though. I feel like Michael Wilson could plug in there and be a solid starter quickly opposite Hollywood Brown. Yeah, Wilson was one of my guys through the whole process.
Starting point is 01:42:43 Senior Bowl week is really where, you know, how I got on his radar because there's just not a lot of film out of him. I think he played 1,200 snaps in four years of college football. Not a lot, had injury concerns. That said, the dude can absolutely ball. I think he could, you know, he could play like a true ex-receiver role as more of a possession guy, similar to like a T. Higgins. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:43:01 Good route runner, ball skills for days, good hands. But I also think he could play more of that power slot role, too, as a big, big-time slot guy. He's a really thick, muscled up, big-body guy who moves really, really well. And talk about giving him, you know, some free releases and see what he can do after the catch. I think, I think that power slot role would be really good for him. If, even if Hopkins and Brown, you know, play the whole season, I think. think that would that would be a good pairing there. So if we're going to go with more 12, then I guess Trey McBride, I guess we'll see you next year. Joe, Graham, I mean, I really like Trey McBride,
Starting point is 01:43:38 but with Zach Ertz here, you know, the quarterback situation, I just really, it's hard to get behind. I really do believe in that kid, though. What do you think about Trey McBride? I am actually just currently looking at one of my FFPC Dynasty teams where he is my third tight end. Remember, that's a tight end premium. I have them behind Dallas Goddard and Greg Dulcich. And I think McBride is somebody who, because he didn't do a ton last year, came on a little bit at the end. Maybe people aren't really excited about, but I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a step forward this year. Remember, high draft capital. I know it's a new staff, but this was a guy who pretty much had universal acclaim as the best tight end in last year's
Starting point is 01:44:23 draft cost. Yeah. No, he's good, right? Brett, we watched him for a week, right? He's, dude was always open. Yeah, and he checks the main box for me, and that's, you can go play on the outside and beat safeties and corners and disadvantaged linebackers. So there you go. Okay. I do like Clayton Tune as a long shot.
Starting point is 01:44:45 Interviewed him. He's like a 32-year-old man. Very mature. Adam, are they can, are they just going to be like, go full de-gaff with James Connor? and just ride them to the wheels fall off and start again next year and running back? Yeah, I mean, I would, yeah, because they just don't have anyone.
Starting point is 01:45:03 I mean, this is another situation where I scratch my head. Connor certainly has been a good story, but he's heard a lot. Corey Clement has been heard ever since the Super Bowl six years ago. Tyson Williams is there. They just, they didn't draft anyone. They didn't sign anybody. Nope.
Starting point is 01:45:18 It's kind of weird. Yeah, I don't. It's very weird. This is kind of, and this is one of the ugliest situations for any fantasy offense. I'd be stunned if it turns out to be good. Your starter's coming off ACL reconstruction. Tight tune is there, by the way, as the third-strike quarterback.
Starting point is 01:45:31 Most likely will be there three. Bad offensive line, not a lot of talent there. There was some talent receiver, John, but overall, this is an offense. I completely avoid it. San Francisco 49ers, and as I got into it and looked into it, I kind of like Brock Purdy for fantasy. so I guess we'll start there. It sure seems like they like him
Starting point is 01:45:58 and they're going to give him every opportunity. Brett, your thoughts on what you saw from Purdy, can we double that sample size and maintain the efficient level of play that we saw last year or something thereabouts? I mean, it's a scheme, right? The scheme draws out the efficiency
Starting point is 01:46:17 corrupt at moments as well of efficiency. and I do think Bertie's get, I call them Bertie. I think Bertie will come back down to earth for sure. He, I mean, he had some interception look last year too. I know the zero interceptions thing sticks out for a lot of people,
Starting point is 01:46:35 but he was chucking up some yolo balls at times that just either fell incomplete or got caught. You look at its college tape, decision making was not his strong suit. He wants, I tell the story because it's true and it's hilarious, but he once threw an interception in college where the ball was caught 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage, John.
Starting point is 01:46:57 Wow. That was interception through, which means he was at like 35 yards behind the line of scrimmage, scrambling around like a maniac, and through an interception at 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage, which is absolutely insane. That's insane. I think some of that poor decision-making, I think it's going to start rearing it's ugly.
Starting point is 01:47:13 I think you saw it towards end of last year with some of those yolo balls he was thrown. Now, he's still going to be okay because the scheme's fine, but yeah. They took a couple of things there. They absolutely love this guy, Purdy. In terms of gamer, toughness, leadership, they made this decision literally right after the last of the Eagles, they didn't know how bad the Purdy injury would turn out to be. But they made a decision he was going to be the starter going forward.
Starting point is 01:47:37 Like that's how much they love him. Now, there are some people in the league say, eventually he's going to show why he was the last pick overall last year. Yeah. Limited, very limited. You watch them when he's got a clear path, how he's got to get his body into it. it when he throws just to get it past 20 yards.
Starting point is 01:47:53 But he can get, when he gets in a rhythm, he's very effective. But I do worry about reality hitting this kid. Now, I know Kyle Shanahan is a great coach, and he's got a great scheme, and he makes guys sometimes look better than they are. And that's certainly going to be concerned. But I have to trust Shanahan here that he knows what he's doing, and everything in the past has shown that he does. So the question is over full season, though,
Starting point is 01:48:20 I know he's got to show he can do it over a full season. Yeah. And personally, I'm not there with that. I don't know that it's going to be. And for fantasy for the purpose of what we're doing here, you have to ask yourself, will IUK and Samuel be brought down a little bit because Purdy doesn't have the Jews to do this over full season?
Starting point is 01:48:37 I have my doubts. I really do. Yeah, yeah. Well, you know, I remember when Tony Romo had that run. And then the next year, everyone was like, All right, is that for real? And we looked at that completion percentage tie with the YPA
Starting point is 01:48:57 and determined, yes, it was real. The problem is the YPA in this scheme are always juiced up here. But, you know, we were like, oh, Romo completed 65% of his passes last year with a 7.6 YPA. And the only other guys to do that, their rookie year were like Steve Young, John Elway, Joe, Montana. So yeah, we're going to go with he's good. But I don't know if we could do that with the scheme here. For what it's worth, he was at 67% with an 8.1 YPA. You certainly get the full year Christian McCaffrey. They do have a lot of weapons and a good old line. So it is a very, very good
Starting point is 01:49:36 environment. And, you know, I'm not saying I'm investing in him to be their long term starter. But for fantasy this year, I might take a look at him because he's like QB 29 off the board. but I could easily see him being like QB20, you know, or even 19 or something like that. Moving on to the Seattle Seahawks. And I guess Gino Smith is going to back it up because everyone seems to be really high on Jackson Smith and Jigba. I know everybody here, Brett and Graham are very high on Jackson Smith and Jigba. But again, Graham, I'll go to you. Are they going to support three?
Starting point is 01:50:16 top 30 wide receivers in Seattle this year? Maybe not top 30, but I think top 40 is possible. I mean, every single year, there's multiple teams like 8 to 10 that have two top 40 fantasy receivers. The Seahawks easily did it last year. I think they kind of told us what they are envisioning for Tyler Lockett. He's now 31, and Jackson's Fifth and Jigmo can obviously play in the Slavits where he's, predominantly probably going to play year one, but he can play outside too.
Starting point is 01:50:45 I just think the guy's a baller, man. It's like, I think it's like with receivers. It's like, okay, is the quarterback good enough? Are they going to throw enough? Is the guy good enough? And it's like all three click with Jackson Smith and jigbo. It's like, I mean, last year the Seahawks were top eight and passed three to over expectation.
Starting point is 01:51:04 I know they drafted Sharbonnet. I know they're going to run the ball a little bit. But like, this team is still pilt the throw and they just drafted a receiver in the first round. They're not going to. They're not going to. But Adam, they were fifth in pass rate over expectations. Well, they had to because if their defense is bad again, that's a different story, but they're not going to throw. They're just not.
Starting point is 01:51:22 I'm pretty close to that team. Pete basically micromanages, offense coordinators, if you cannot believe, they're not going to throw a lot. If their defense is hanging in there, they're just not. And plus, remember, Penny got heard. There are a lot of things that went against what Pete wanted. It's not what we want. We want them to throw the football. And the personnel will tell you they could throw the football, but that's not what Pete wants.
Starting point is 01:51:43 I harken back to that game. I forget who it was against, where DJ Dallas essentially had to play on a severely high- high-hangingous. Right. Because they ran. And when people ask me, why would the Seahawks Galaxy bring themselves and take Charbonnet?
Starting point is 01:52:01 I just tried to put myself in Pete Carroll's mindset. And Pete said to himself, that is never happening to me again. And so they made an annoying-ass pick for fantasy purposes. It sucks. I mean, because it hurts Kenneth Walker, who was a top-of-the-line dynasty running back, and it hurts Charbonnet, who was one of the best backs in this class per Brett. I think Brett had him his third running back in this class, but Pete Carroll does not give a shit. Pete Carroll was going to sit there and say, I am never playing a game without a running back again.
Starting point is 01:52:34 And that's why they made this big. Well, let me just say real quick, when Penny was still healthy, they were still eighth and pass rate over expectation, which would have tied them with the jacks. I mean, all I'm saying here is like, I think we keep referring back to this thing of like, we keep referring back to our priors with Gino Smith. It's like, oh, he was no good with the jets. He lost to jump with the Giants. Not at all.
Starting point is 01:52:57 He could throw it. You know, like. Seattle was rebuilding. Their defense, they were rebuilding that then, though. Yeah. You know, I mean. I don't know, man. I think when you have D.K. Metcalfe and J.S.N.
Starting point is 01:53:09 and lock it, like, you're going to throw. I don't know. Not unless you, unless you, and not unless you have Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker. I mean, that's the thing. I'm telling you. I mean, I got to say, Rashad Penny is way better than Zach Charbonnet is. And they still threw the ball ton. Is it possible they do both?
Starting point is 01:53:28 Like, what if this defense still isn't very good? And we know this offense is capable of being very good. So what if they just run a crap ton of plays on offense? Well, that was the thing last year. Like, so if you think back to 2021, right? So their play volume completely boomerang. So in 2021, they're at the. bottom of the league and play volume. They played super slow. Russell Wilson was terrible.
Starting point is 01:53:46 Took a bunch of sacks. They're, you know, that's part of the reason why this offense disappointed is their play volume was so bad. Last year, completely boomerang. They picked up the pace a little bit. Gino could actually convert third downs. Regardless of their running back, and like, they still move the ball really, really well. I'm not there with this defense team. I mean, I'm looking at this step chart. They still have me. I mean, I know they can dial it up with the pass rush, but like, yeah, they got Devin Weatherspoon. They got Tariq Will and like their pass rush. I think is still a major, major concern. No, I hear you.
Starting point is 01:54:16 Bobby, Bobby Wagner will get five socks. I mean, yeah, their pass rush is a major concern. I think they're two, I mean, obviously their corners are great, but yeah, I think that's got to be a big concern here. I mean, my thought real quick, it did seem like they hit a wall last year with Gino, that run he was on. It was like, oh, every week he's the same guy, but then it, until he wasn't. And I feel like the Jackson Smith and Jigba signing was like,
Starting point is 01:54:42 We need more help to go to get it over the top, you know. John, and you look at this pass per game. I mean, he had like, what, three over 40? Can Carlos have won that? That's not, Graham's right. They threw the ball a lot. It's not what he wants. But their defense was so bad.
Starting point is 01:55:01 The only way they could win. And once they started to trust Gino, they had to throw. But this is, if you remember, John, when, when Russell Wilson was going to set it NFL. pro record for touchdowns at a season. They get 28 and 8 games. Pete Carroll told their coaches, it's over. We're not doing this anymore.
Starting point is 01:55:20 Yeah. That's not what he wants. It's ridiculous. It's why they're never going to win another Super Bowl. If, Graham, I'm with you. They should throw the ball 35 to 40 times a game with it personal. They're passing personnel, but that's not what they are. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:55:34 No, I hear you. And, you know, should the Charbonnet pick is probably a small sign of that. But it's also kind of what Joe is saying. Like, they had. nothing after Penny got hurt last year. So, I mean, if Walker gets hurt, you know, they at least have somebody reliable at two now. Well, as someone who has overrated many young players
Starting point is 01:55:56 and oversaw them a year before their true breakout, I will say that I think it's absurd that JSN is being drafted in front of lock. I mean, mark the tape. It's May 9th, 113 Eastern. That is egregious. There's absolutely no way that Jackson Smith and Jigba is going to be worth anything remotely close to the Capitol that he's going on underdog here, like 60 over. There's absolutely no way.
Starting point is 01:56:24 It's one of the most mispriced guys I've ever seen, honestly. John, you're never going to have fights about this because I think he has a chance to be their top scoring receiver. I mean, that's, hey, I think he's the best receiver on the team. There is a lot of polarization out there this year. I'm telling you. There are a lot of changing environment. and changing landscapes and shifting.
Starting point is 01:56:44 And yeah, we'll see. We'll have a steel cage match at the end of the year on it. But let's move on. And do we hit everything on Seattle, by the way? I guess we're good here. Moving on to the Rams, who might have the next to last worst defense here. I mean, Adam, defensively. Oh, my God.
Starting point is 01:57:10 I mean, where are they getting a pass rush? Who's covering? This looks really bad. I mean, they went from having one of the best quarterback groups to the NFL a couple of years ago. It's not good. I mean, if anyone who goes against them should be throwing the ball like almost every down, I'd throw the hell out of it against them.
Starting point is 01:57:29 And they got an aging Aaron Donald, not much else. You're right, John. This is, you're now, you're right on top of it. This is from a personnel standpoint only. Not very good. Yeah. Well, and the hope is that Stafford can stay in one piece. Just feed the ball to Cooper Cup.
Starting point is 01:57:44 Check it down to Cam Acres. Check it down to Tyler Higby. You know, I actually do think their offense is pretty decent. I kind of like Van Jefferson as a sleeper here. He's finally healthy. Brett, you have any thoughts on Van Jefferson? Got a little inside, outside versatility. I think if there's anyone who rises above the others here opposite Cooper Cup,
Starting point is 01:58:06 I'm going to go Van. but maybe you go Puka because you're a Puka Nakua guy. I am a Puka Nakua guy and I think that's a really, really good landing spot for him. My comp for Puka was Robert Woods and he lands on the Rams. I think they could use him in that role. He's got a little Debo to his game as well. They can get him on those schemed up touches though is the bigger point there. But as far as Van goes, I think for whatever reason so far he's been kind of cast as this deep threat only type of guy.
Starting point is 01:58:36 Right. I don't know why. Because they needed his verticality, his rookie year. They didn't have anybody else who could run, I don't think. Yeah, he's a really good route runner. I mean, obviously his dad's an NFL wide receiver coach. This kid has a route running in his blood. I mean, he can separate.
Starting point is 01:58:51 He can do a lot of the nitty gritty stuff in the short and intermediate parts of the field. He can work the middle of the field really well. I'd like to see them use him in a more diverse route tree this year. And yeah, looking at their depth start, they freaking should. That's for sure. I got to say some of the last year was on. McVeigh. Look, I know the dude just won the Super Bowl. I know Stafford was hurt. That offense was atrocious last year. I mean, it was literally so hamstrung, just let's find
Starting point is 01:59:17 ways to get the ball of Cooper Cup and ignore everyone else. I mean, it was just to Brett's point, the thing with Van and even some of their other guys, I mean, they just, I don't know. It seemed like something was fundamentally broken in that offense last year. And I don't know if they have the personnel to really fix it. In the backfield, I'm not sure why people are so skeptical on Cam Acres. I mean, obviously, I know the career has gotten off to a rough start here, but I mean, you know, all the data points. The final six weeks are outstanding. Brett supplied that. The eyeball test was good. Kyron Williams is a jag. Zach Evans is not much of a third down threat. I mean, I am feeling it, Brett, with Cam Makers here to basically potentially be this year's Josh Jacobs. You know, like, let's, Write them off in a contract year. Last year.
Starting point is 02:00:10 Yeah, I agree. I mean, the numbers I pulled for you, John, I didn't even know that that was true before I pulled it. And I was like, I had to go back and watch the tape because I was like, oh, that was my eyeball test. I'm like, he's back. I'm thinking he's back. I'm watching them like the last six weeks. Yeah, that team was just so bad. I didn't really pay them any mind.
Starting point is 02:00:29 So like when I pulled those numbers, I was like, holy crap, I got to go watch the tape. And yeah, he looked back. I know it seemed like him and McVeigh had some feud early in the year. or whatever, where they were thinking about trading him, and then he got hurt. And then when he came back, though, man, he, he was electric, physical, powerful, elusive, all those, all the things you're looking for in that scheme specifically. And they gave you the big stamp of approval by not really drafting. I mean, Zach Evans in the sixth round is a nothing burger, you know?
Starting point is 02:00:54 Yeah, I mean, I think you're right. Contract year, they're just going to, you know, ride him into the ground probably. Yep, yep. I'll sleep like a baby on that call. Cammakers all day long. And then Cooper Cup will probably catch 120 balls the first, you know, 13 weeks and then like he'll disintegrate from overuse.
Starting point is 02:01:15 So one thing, just on Jefferson, he's going to be their shot play guy. That's the way they saw him. Before he had that meniscus cleanup. Like, he was doing so well. They were expecting to break out season from him. And he's finally over here to have a follow up. He's finally healthy.
Starting point is 02:01:34 So, I mean, when you look at their past target group, John, he's going to be two. It's a cup one, Jefferson two. I don't know. Higbee 3, whatever that looks like. Captain Checkdown. And I'm telling you, 2-2 at well, we'll push 30 catches, marking it down, 30. I mean, he's going to be out there, you know, rotational guy. I mean, no question.
Starting point is 02:01:56 My guy, Lance McCutcheon. Two a game? Yeah, well, Lance McCutcheon is the guy that, you know, starting to talk up a little bit here. is 6-2 out of Broe Montana State is Lance McCutcheon. How about Stetson Bennett? How shocked were you
Starting point is 02:02:12 Brett that the Rams went there when they did? I mean, as far as on the field goes, I think that's a perfectly reasonable spot for Bennett. It's the off-field stuff, I think, that had him falling that far. Had he not
Starting point is 02:02:27 had the all-field stuff, I think he probably goes day two. Oh, okay. Yeah. I don't even know what that is. What is it? I mean, the office, was he a jerk? I mean, what, that's been,
Starting point is 02:02:39 I don't know a lot of details either, but that's just the words everyone utters. It sounds like though he's a, he's a massive diva, a big time jerk. He actually kicked off the team at one point and then brought back. Right, right, right.
Starting point is 02:02:50 And the men's were, you know, if your name is Baker Mayfield or Stetson Bennett, it's like, you know, you're, you're just better than everybody, apparently.
Starting point is 02:02:59 I don't know. I mean, okay. All right. Well, we'll see. It certainly was a pretty, logical landing spot like you said i could see him having some success here and then we're done that's it
Starting point is 02:03:11 right we've covered it all here a little lengthy i don't know if we planned on it going this long but i don't think we really truly belabored a lot of points and uh we hit on probably 90% of the points that need to be hit on so that is episode one or version one of the offseason powwow NFC will reconvene soon, very soon, with basically the same cast of characters and we'll bang out the AFC. We'll chop up all the videos here. We'll use them on social media. We'll put this out as a podcast so you can hear the entirety of the conversation. We didn't have a lot of people like talking over one another, which certainly helps. So with that said, we'll wrap it up. for Adam Kaplan and Mr. Graham Barfield, Brett Whitefield, Joe Dolan, Tom Broly behind the curtain there.
Starting point is 02:04:07 Taking notes. Our guy, Trey, behind the glass as well. I'm John Hansen. We'll catch you next time at FantasyPoint.com. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.

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