Fantasy Football Daily - 2023 NFL Team Win Total Over/Unders | Two-Point Stance Podcast

Episode Date: March 30, 2023

We looked at the 2023 NFL team win total projections from DraftKings and gave our best bets on who will go over and under their set lines. Hosts Brian Drake and Joe Dolan welcomed FantasyPoints.com Betting Lead Tom Brolley to the show and broke down the entire NFL universe. Will the Dallas Cowboys despite their difficult schedule win more than 9.5 games? Can the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs top 11.5 victories? The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off of a 14-win season but their line for 2023 is just 10.5 wins, is this a trap? FantasyPoints.com is your home for fantasy football news, analysis, and projections. Sign-up for Underdog Fantasy and use code "FantasyPts" to get up to $100 in an initial deposit bonus AND we'll give you a $5 subscription to FantasyPoints.com Follow us on Twitter: Twitter.com/FantasyPTS Twitter.com/DrakeFantasy Twitter.com/FG_Dolan --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. All across the fantasy universe, welcome one and all to the Two Points Dance podcast, powered by FantasyPoint.com. I'm your host, Brian Drake, on Twitter at Drake Fantasy. joined as always by my main man, the managing editor of FantasyPoints.com, Mr. Joe Dolan on Twitter at FG underscore Dolan. Joe, how you doing today, my friend? Drake, it's been a wild week here at FantasyPoints.com, just pushing us into the future. But I've had a great time. And I'm ready to actually talk some football. I'm a, I never fancied myself a businessman. I've been doing a little too much of that stuff in the recent times. And I was excited when,

these wind totals came out that we can actually sit down, talk some football, chopping up with the boys here on a Thursday morning as it as it is. So good to be with you, Drake. Good to be with Tom, as always. Yeah, so we're going to bring in Tom Brawley. You know him and love him from FantasyPoints.com. Does tons of betting analysis over there. Tom, you still do some prop stuff, I believe.

Oh, absolutely. Jack of all trades at Fantasy Points.com. And now we hear even more and more on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio becoming a King of the airwaves, Tom Bo. Yeah, I've been popping on the morning show a little bit. Joe and I were both on this week and probably be hearing me on there a little bit more as the summer goes along. But yeah, good to be on here. This is, I'm like a kid in the candy store this week.

The wind totals, the initial win totals for the 2003 season have come out. Wait all year for these. These are, I enjoy betting these a little bit more than Super Bowl props. You know, Super Bowl's fun. You get the big numbers, but that's where the sports books really, you know, they kind of take your money. They're not giving you real fair odds. Win totals, you know, we're getting the minus 110 versus minus 110.

This is low hold. And you get to follow them all year. You know, you glom onto a team or two, put some money on them, root against them, or maybe root for them. It doesn't necessarily have to be your favorite team. So I really enjoy the win totals a little. bit more than some of the other futures bets. Yeah, me too. This is a lot of fun, folks. So sit back and relax. We're going to talk about

the win totals that draft kings put out on their sports book. If you want to make a little money, go find the book of your choice. If you think, hey, I like Philadelphia's odds. I like Kansas City's odds. They're not going to win that many games. And I'm going to bet the end of, go go go go go to bet you know, tell me your boys from fantasy points, don't you? So what we're going to do is we're going to start out. We're going to go buy win total. And that's, we're going to group the teams that way. So the first grouping is 11 and a half wins. And there's three teams in this category, fellas. It's Kansas City, San Francisco, and Cincinnati.

Now, remember the chiefs were 14 and 3 last year, the Niners, 13 and 4, Cincinnati, 12 and 4. So all of these teams were over this total a year ago. We're looking at strength of schedule based on last year's win percentage. These teams are all next to each other in the top 17. at 16, 15, and 17, if that matters. I know a lot of things move around in the off season. But all right, well, let's kick it off right here, guys, with this 11 and a half.

Tom, you're our guest. We'll start with you. Anything really pop out from this trio? Do you see anybody going under this 11 and a half? The 49ers kind of pop out to me as a team that I probably looked at the under. We've heard this week that it's kind of going to be Brock Purdy. They, you know, John Lynch said this week, that's the guy that's the guy that's leader in the clubhouse, but of course he's going basically through Tommy John's surgery.

So there's a real question if he's going to be ready for week one. We've seen Trey Lance in very small doses, basically a game and a half last year. The reports in training camp were very terrible. So maybe he's the leader if Purdy's injury drags into the season. And then we have Sam Darnold also joining the mix in free agency. So I mean, roster-wise, probably the 49ers have the best. roster in the league. It's, you know, but quarterback position, it's a big question mark heading into the year.

That's the one that, of the three here, I would kind of look towards the under with the 49ers. You have to pay a little bit of a price. It's minus 130, but that's the one where I have some question marks. Although the NFC West is, you know, we could have some two down teams there with the Cardinals and the Rams. Seahawks were certainly competitive, but they were not competitive against the 49. years last year. So I can see why it's set here at 11.5 because of the NFC West, but they also get the AFC South as well in terms of crossover games with the AFC. So pretty soft little landing spot there for four games against the AFC. So I can see why it's 11-5, but the questions

that quarterback certainly give me a little bit of a pause to bet and over with the 49ers. What do you think, Joe, on these 11.5 teams? Well, one thing I know is I'm not betting the Kansas City Chiefs under. I'll never do that. I'm probably not going anywhere near these. And, you know, the 49ers always have a trick up their sleeves. That's the thing that, John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan are really, really aggressive. As a matter of fact, Drake, you and I discussed that on our earlier podcast this week. When we named the 49ers as the number one potential landing spot for Lamar Jackson, let's go. They don't really have the draft capital to do that. At least we think they don't, but they do have two young quarterbacks that

they could throw into that trade. So I think that's, that's what, what makes this fascinating for me. And so I, I am probably staying away from these. I understand why the 49ers have the juice to the under, which is going to lead me to another question I actually have for Tom here, because I think it's kind of fascinating how these win totals are, are organized, Drake. I don't want to step on your toes here. Please. I, um, let's look at the 10 and a half win total teams. Philadelphia in Buffalo, at least at the top. They're 10 and a half wins. Minus 150 to the over for Philly,

minus 140 to the over for Buffalo. The 49ers are minus 130 to the under of 11.5. If you are reading that as a better, are you essentially looking at these saying, in essence, the market or the market has all three of these teams as 11 win teams? Yeah, 49ers probably shake. a little above that, you know, like 11.1 or two, and maybe the Bills and Jaguar, the Eagles,

probably like 10.9. They're right around that 11 win mark. These books, 10, we will see, you know, even numbers. We will see, you know, 11s and tens at some point, maybe this summer. But initially, these books like to put out these half wins, you know, people want to result. They want to They want to know if they win or lose. So I would certainly say that the Bengals and chiefs are at the very top here. And then we have a little bit more of a cluster here with the 49ers, Eagles and Bills with these win totals. The Jaguars are the other 10 and a half team, but they're shaded towards the under at minus 140. So they're a little bit less than 10 and a half.

The Eagles are interesting, guys. Remember, this is a 17 game season. I think a lot of folks still in their mind, they're just stuck on 16. You get a remember, it's 17-game season. Philadelphia 14 and 3 last year. So they're saying, you know, 10 and a half, that's the line. According to strength of schedule for last year, the Eagles have the hardest schedule in the NFL.

We know they've lost some assets on the defensive side of the football. Philadelphia on the road this year has to play. Okay, of course, their division, Dallas, New York, Washington, but they're also going to play Kansas City, New England, the Rams, Jets, Seahawks, and Bucks. I could see the Rams and Bucks being nobody's, but those other teams could be very, very difficult with the losses on defense,

but I could see Philadelphia coming back to Earth and maybe being a 10 and 7 team. That wouldn't shock me at all if Dallas rises a little bit. That's one, and I'm an Eagles fan. And I think they're trying to get the sucker bet on there to say, everyone's like, that's a layup. Philly's got the overall day long. I'm not sure about that.

we do see this with Super Bowl teams, especially the teams of lose in the Super Bowl. There tends to be a little bit of a hangover. We saw, I mean, the worst hangover of all time happened to the Rams last year. I mean, they couldn't even, couldn't compete at the end of the season. They were trotting up Baker Mayfield and things really went south for them. So it has been a think about it. Yeah, it's 17 games season, but they also had to play an additional three games and they play into mid-February.

A lot of these teams are wrapping up the first or second week of January, and they're getting an additional, you know, five to six weeks of rest. It might not seem like much whenever the season's not really getting back underway until August when their practices, full pad of practices start back up. But, you know, it can be a little bit of a difference to put on a little bit extra tread there at the end of the season. And as you said, they went from arguably the easiest schedule that we've seen for, you know, a team to make it to the Super Bowl to a very tough road here. They got the NFC West and the

AFC East, probably the two toughest, you know, if we're looking at the AFC, you don't want to face the East. Outside of the NFC East, you probably don't want to face the NFC West with the Seahawks and the 49th. So a little bit tougher path. And as we also see with Super Bowl teams, attrition can set in. You know, your guys play well. You get to the Super Bowl. They go out and get more money somewhere else. So that certainly happened to the Eagles here this off season. But luckily, they do have some draft capital here. They have some first round picks to, you know, reload the cupboard here a little bit before the season comes around. Joe, let me ask you about this Jaguars team. They're minus 140 to the 10 and a half under.

So people are going to look at Jacksonville and go 10 and a half, they got the same total as Philadelphia and Buffalo. Like, boy, that's interesting. But as you so astutely mentioned a few moments ago, they really, I think the bet here is to the under. Do you think Jacksonville at 10.5 is, is that Fool's gold? I mean, do we really think they're going to take that next step? Jacksonville last year was a 9 and 18.

Yeah. So like, first and foremost, when I first looked at these win totals, I'm like, whoa, like, Jaguars at 10 and a half. and then you realize what their division looks like. As of right now, you have two games against Houston who's going to have a rookie quarterback, two games against Indianapolis, who in theory are going to have a rookie quarterback, and two games against the Titans who don't exactly have one of the best rosters in the NFL right now. They disintegrated at the end of last year.

But Houston and Indy with rookie quarterbacks, new coaches, are they going to be tougher than last year? Because I kind of think so. You know, Andy was a... I'll say that for later, Joe. That's one of my favorite ones. Okay, all right. So, yeah, let's save that for later.

So I understand why the Jags are here, especially if the markets think Trevor Lawrence is going to take the next step forward. They have a lot of ability. Calvin Ridley's there. That's one where I don't know about you guys, but every time I see the Jaguars posted a Calvin Ridley-like tweet. or Calvin Ridley had that. I'm like, oh, yeah. I forgot about that. I've forgotten about it multiple times this off season already.

But they also get the NFC South for NFC games, which is always very appealing in addition to their games against the AFC South. So I see why it's put there. I kind of lean toward the over here. I think this, I'm with you, Joe. This division could be a cakewalk for them. They're a team that was really coming on strong at the end of last year. Trevor Lawrence, It was shaky there in his rookie season and yeah, for the first half of last year. And then he really started to ascend to get another year under Doug Peterson here, get Calvin Ridley in the mix. I kind of like them. I think I did take a Super Bowl outright with them.

That's one of the couple outrights I did take just because I could see. I think there's a path for them to potentially get the number one seed in the AFC. And we're seeing it with this win total at 10.5. What about the Buffalo Bills? I think people are going to want to smash the over because, you know, last year, of course, you know, they had 13 wins. I believe in, you know, they were a very good team. This is what gives me pause with Buffalo. Look at this road schedule.

Obviously, Miami, Patriots, Jets, at the Bengals, at the Chiefs, at the Chargers, at the Eagles, and then they're also at the commanders. That is brutal for the Buffalo Bills. So maybe they are a 10-win team. It wouldn't shock me, but, and if Aaron Rogers goes to the Jets, that's a really tough division, Joe. And by the way, I think I'll let Tom Browley mention this right now. I think Mr. T. Bro, who put his latest betting power rankings, power ratings, whatever you want to call it. Hey, I'll be cynical. It used to be power ratings because that's what they say is betting, but we put it up, we called it power rankings for SEO purposes.

You got, you got, you got to, you got to acquiesce to the man here every now and again. Tom, you think the bills are one of the least improved teams in football right now? Yeah, I mean, and we knew this is going to happen. You know, the contract for Josh Allen really starts to settle in. They, you know, they paid Von Miller last year. So I don't think they've taken like a major step back, but you lose a couple of key pieces like Tremant Envins and your roster gets a little bit older. With, you know, their safeties are really getting up there in age.

The secondary kind of broke down a little bit towards the end of last year. Let's face it, if you want to compete in the age, AFC. You got to go through Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. So I do have some concerns about their secondary. And now you got Aaron Rogers coming into your division, Tua, and then the Dolphins really played them very tough last year. They split the season series. And then, I mean, they had them on the ropes there for a little bit in the wild card round. So the bills, there's feels like there's some holes in the armor right now. And I can see why this is a 10 and a half. This is probably a total. I won't.

won't go near because I do have my questions about the Jets. And we certainly have questions about Tua's health and his ability to stay on the field for the vast majority of the season. So that will probably keep me away from betting any kind of bills total. But I can see why this is a team that's been 11.5 in terms of their win total last couple of years. So it's warranted why it's moved down a little bit here this year. I'm looking at this group of teams at nine and a half wins. And this is juicy. This is where the books want to make the money.

Because look, this is where you've got the Dallas Cowboys, the most popular team in football. You put the New York Jets. So you got that New York market and you got all the hype with Aaron Rogers. You got the L.A. market with the Chargers. Everyone's favorite. The Detroit Lions are in this mix. Miami with a big fan base. And then the Browns.

So a lot to chew on here in the nine and a half range, guys. Dallas with a very difficult schedule. Again, they play the same group as the Eagles. They were 12 and 5 last year. Just added another piece at wide receiver in Brandon Cook's. Defense is very, very good. There is no Ezekiel Elliott anymore. But at 12 and 5 last year, to me, even with a hard schedule,

I have a tough time seeing Dallas go under the nine and a half. Yeah, I got burned by them last year. I bet them under, I think it was at 10. 10 victories last year towards the towards August. That's when Tyrone Smith went down. And I was like, man, these vibes are bad with the Cowboys right now. Eagles all over the Eagles futures last year. And, you know, on their over on the NFC East division title odds.

And they still cruised over. I mean, they had, they played six games without Dak Prescott. And, you know, it still easily went over the total. So I could only look at it over here. but I do have my concerns. I mean, we're losing Kellan Moore as an offensive coordinator. That power struggle between him and McCarthy. McCarthy won.

He wants to call the plays. He wants it to be his offense. I mean, Moore was, I mean, he was operating the second best offense behind the Chiefs the last four years. So I think there's reason for concern there that maybe the offense takes a step back. The NFC East is certainly getting a little bit more difficult each passing year. The Eagles, you know, ran to the Super Bowl. Giants maybe played over their heads a little bit last year,

but I think this roster is going to be improved this season, and the commanders are, you know, they're a solid team. They're defensively very tough, and we look at their, they have the NFC West, and they have the crossover games with the AFC East here. So I would lean towards the over with the Cowboys, just because I think they've been running a pretty good ship here. but losing Kellamore, I'm at least a little bit intrigued to see what this offense looks like this season after, you know, just operating the second best offense here the last four years. I'm looking at the Lions nine and a half minus 120. I don't know if that number is going to last for a long time.

I know. I already got some Lions Super Bowl props. Those have dropped here. I got them at 30 to 1 and they're now in that 25 to 1 range. A lot of, yeah, the Lions are the hot team here. So I agree with you. I'm going to probably just stick it out. I have NFC, NFC division conference winning odds and Super Bowl winning odds for the Lions. Nine and a half does feel, you know,

a little bit high for a team that, you know, really hasn't done it that much. They did get to nine wins last year, took a big leap forward. But I do worry about Jared Gough, you know, maybe taking a step back this season. He really played, above his head last year.

I mean, he was getting written off. He was done basically last year. Fantasy drafts. He was, you know, the 28th quarterback off the board. Nobody wanted any part of them. So I do have some concerns that maybe Goff takes a step back here. I'm content with my future props with them, but nine and a half minus 120.

Feels a bit inflated, but that's the side I'm probably back here. I do think the NFC North could take a step back. here. We're getting Aaron Rogers out of the mix. We're getting a lot of air blowing up their butts here this offseason, but I do like that lion's side. You mentioned Aaron Rogers going to the Jets. They're in this mix, nine and a half minus 130. This is a team last year with, you know, Adam Kaplan playing quarterback had seven wins. So I think Aaron Rogers could, is he worth three more wins in the AFC East for the New York Jets? Or are they trying to play, hey, you know, New York Jet fan, you know, bet the money

here. And maybe nine and eight is where the Jets finish up and the book cleans up. Yeah, I don't know. You go ahead, Joe. I'm not betting this line. I am not touching it. I think the Jets have a better team than the Packers, quite frankly. I don't even know if that's a controversial statement.

But what if Rogers decline of the Packers? last year is real. You know, I think, but you can also talk yourself into, I have recency bias. This is a guy who won two consecutive MVPs the two years prior. So I'm not touching this. I could see the Jets go on 11 and 6. I don't know if Russell Wilson disaster class is in the range of outcomes. I don't know if I think Rogers could collapse that that much.

But knowing how much the Jets are probably going to be in primetime, year. The thought is absolutely crossed my mind that by week six, we're like, oh, my God, not another Jets primetime game, just like we were doing with the Broncos last year. This is not one I have any comfort, like, because I will truly say it like two years ago, 2020 rather, I guess three years ago at this point, when I remember leading off our players to, are overvalued in players to avoid article at fantasy points. And the cover boy was Aaron Rogers. And, oh, you know, the 2019 season was not good for him.

His play had slipped. And I remember specifically writing in that article, the one thing that we here could be underestimating is the F you factor. Aaron Rogers saying, screw you guys, I'm still great, and I'm going to show you. And that's exactly what happened. He came out and the FU factor. was high for Aaron Rogers. I don't know if I can underestimate that factor with him going to the Jets.

Everybody's laughing at him. Everybody hates him. I think he knows everybody hates him. And I think he's playing into the fact that everybody hates him. And I think there's going to be a little Rick Flair, learn to love it. Because you're going to be seeing a lot of it. I am not touching this line. I think it is a shrewd line by the books.

I'll honestly, I'm leaning towards the under with you, Joe. But this is one I would not touch right. now there's going to be a moment in the year later in the summer i think you know every jet's fan is going to come out of the woodwork to want to bet the over here and i it will give us some time to see his level of involvement i think if we see him at o t's uh really chopping it up and uh because he seemed just there there seemed to be a level of discontent in green bay last year he didn't want to you know be involved in all the off put out the door already. So I think if we see in like May and in June, if he's out there practicing and, you know,

chopping it up with all his new teammates. And maybe that's a sign that, okay, I'm staying away from this total. If he's still kind of, you know, partially away from the team and we're not getting the reports that he's inviting all the guys out to wherever in California to practice, maybe that's a sign that we want to bet the under here. Because I do have my concerns here. We got Nathaniel Hackett. Todd Downing running the offense. I mean, we saw what Todd Downing did with Tennessee last year, Hackett and out in Denver last year. And just the fact that the Packers had already moved on basically this offseason,

they wanted nothing to do with Aaron Rogers. I mean, Gooten Coats was out there this week, you know, saying that there was no talks at all between the two sides. And that raises some red flag to me that they were so ready to just go. the other direction. So I'm leaning towards the under here, but I'm going to wait it out here. We'll see how Aaron Rogers is, we'll see how the vibes later this summer. If he's really, if it seems like he's jumping all in, I'm probably going to stay away from this total. But it seems like he's half in, half out again. I think it's time to jump on the under.

And maybe we'll get a better number this summer with all the Jets fans wanting to bet it. A couple of interesting teams here in this nine and a half total bucket. And they both finished at 7 and 10 last year. And they both have, according to strength of schedule, pretty easy schedules for 2023. I'm talking about the Cleveland Browns and the New Orleans Saints. Maybe the casual fan, casual better is going to look at it and go, the Browns and the Saints, they stink.

Like, there's no way they're going to win over nine and a half games. Like, what are we talking about here? Cleveland should be much improved. Another year with Deshawn Watson. The Saints, stabilizer quarterback position, we think, with Derek Carr, and they've still got a very good defense. And you look at the divisions these two teams are in, you know, who's to say these two teams couldn't, you know, compete for their division championships

or in the Saints case, win their division outright, I think. So interesting play on these two teams, guys. You're feeling over or under that nine and a half, Brown Saints. Let's start with you, Joe. The Saints one, the thing is, I don't think this team's any good, but the division is one of the worst I've seen in, the one thing that I think could throw a wrench into this division really is Carolina's. I think Carolina's roster is a little better than people think, and they're obviously going to have a quarterback. And if they get strong play from their rookie quarterback, I think they could make some noise. I don't want to be betting the Saints over, but I understand why it's here. They have Derek Carr, Chris Elabe can take the next step. Thomas is back. We'll see how many games he plays. Not touching this one, but I understand why the Saints line is here. I will never bet overs with Dennis Allen and Josh McDaniels. Those are two rolls of thumbs. So I will not be betting an over with the Saints, but I understand why it's at nine

and a half. They certainly got a quarterback upper grade here. If we can ever get Michael Thomas out in the field, even last year when he played three games, he had three touchdowns, was leading the league in touchdowns. If he ever could stay healthy, it still seems like he can play a little bit. But they did take some big losses on Yamada, Marcus Davenport, leaving this defensive line. There's reasons for some concern here. But yeah, we got two teams in the Bucks and Falcons that are, you know, potential candidates to be tanking at the end of the season. They're leaving their quarterback situation.

Quarterback situation is very open. They're going to give their young guys a chance to maybe prove themselves. and if not, they'll be losing a lot of games late in the year to potentially get Caleb Williams with that number one overall picks. So I'll probably stay away from the Saints one, but you'll catch me dead if I'm betting it over with Dennis Allen. With the Brown side, AFC North is a tough division right now. We'll see what happens with the Ravens. That will probably keep me off of betting anything with the Browns right now. I kind of want to see how that plays out.

Steelers could be an ascending team. if Kenny Pickett gets a second year bump. We see a lot of these quarterbacks from the rookie to their sophomore seasons, you know, improve. And we certainly know the Steelers can play some defense. But we're also waiting on Deshaun Watson here. I mean, didn't look great last year. But I think we're getting some indications that this offense could look a little different this year. I think they're going to try to cater it a little bit more to him.

We see them go out and get Elijah Moore, then get Marquis Goodwin as well. to open up as a vertical threat for this offense. So they're added some speed and some receivers to this offense. So I think we might be seeing this offense move from like a Nick Chup type of offense to a Deshaun Watson type of offense. So I think that's better for the long run. Obviously, they're very financially invested in Deshawn Watson. So I'm staying away from this from now. But as much as I hate to say it, you know, I'm expecting Deshaun Watson to get a second year bump.

with the Cleveland Browns, with Kevin Cisphansky, if they cater the offense more to him this year. I love the Elijah Moore trade for them, by the way. It was just a smart deal. You know, it was a pick exchange. They moved down, what, 30 picks in the draft? And you get a kid that was the 34th overall pick just a couple years ago. And he flashed, you know, he was a five-year-one for a six-week stretch there as a rookie.

And we don't see rookie receivers do that too often. So I thought that was a really sharp move for them. One team we didn't mention in this nine and a half window or the Miami Dolphins. Second year with Mike McDaniel at the helm. They were nine and 80 year ago. Schedule based on last year's win percentage second hardest in the NFL. The big hang up here is the health of Tua. If Tua goes down, we don't know.

He could get hit in week one and he can be done for the next 10 weeks or done for his career. But Miami, though, pretty good team. defense is loaded. They brought back all their running backs, still got Tyreek and Wadle on the outside. To me, this all hinges on Tua. So guys, what do you think? And they're playing minus 120 to the under nine and a half.

You're taking the over, you're taking the under on the dolphins. Hard to bet an over for a team that's projected, you know, by win totals to be the third best team in their own division, right? I mean, I think that's part of the problem here because, according to the markets, the bills and the jets are projected to be better. And I think the dolphins of any of these teams have the biggest question so far, no doubt about it. Maybe, maybe Tom, this is why you're the betting head at fantasy points.com, because I am finding it very difficult to pull the trigger on either the over or the under here because, I mean,

the over is obvious. They have Tyree kill. They got Jalen Waddle. You know, they brought back those piecemeal running backs. They brought in Jailan Rams. but the Tua situation in that division is just so hard for me to get over. Yeah, whenever there's this much level of uncertainty, especially at a position like quarterback,

I'm going to look towards the younger. And we get an extra year, not like Mike McDaniel's going to be solved here in his second season, but hey, there's tape out there now. We know what he wants to do with these speedy receivers, how he's going to operate the offense with Tua. So I think that helps these. opposing defenses in the AFC East as well.

So, yeah, I'm leaning towards the Yonder here, but the AFC East is, this is going to be a dog fight between all four of these teams. I know we really haven't talked about the Patriots. They seem to be the one team that's lagging behind, but this is, this is going to be a very difficult division with three very top heavy teams. But there's just too much uncertainty with Tua right now.

I guess we haven't even really, have they, did they offer the fifth year extension for him, the rookie? I don't think I've seen that yet. So obviously there's a little bit of uncertainty even with the dolphins if they want to. Yeah, they picked it up, Tom. Oh, they did pick it up. Very recently. Okay, good.

Okay, well, that's a smart move on that part. I mean, they don't want to lock him up to a long-term contract. So, but yeah, I would lean towards the under here with the dolphins. If this, like, when total talk is getting your juices flowing? guys like it is with me you know what you got to do you got to start drafting fantasy football teams because that's how you're going to win even more money you're going to win over unders with tom brolly's picks and then you're going to win an underdog you go to underdog fantasy dot com use promo code fantasy pts we're going to match your first time deposit up to a hundred dollars that's right you put

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It's insane. I love doing that promo every single show. And I hope people are heeding our advice here and picking up that subscription because it's damn good. So, all right, that were the teams at nine and a half wins. It's going on to eight and a half wins. All right. So there are some teams in here that won double digit games last year.

And now there's some question marks. I got one I really like here. The Baltimore Ravens are 10 and 7 last year. The Minnesota Vikings were 13 and 4. 13 and 4 last year. DK's got him 8.5. To me, that's like, I mean, minus 130, mind you, for the 8.5.

Is that one of the ones you're talking about, guys? That's not the one I'm talking about. Oh, okay. Well, between those two teams, though, they're double-digit wins last year, and they've only got them projected eight and a half. I know the Baltimore thing, we can move aside. We know the story there.

Minnesota. Minnesota is a team that I know they're kind of purging a little bit. They got issues. They still have Kirky. For the moment, they got Dalvin Cook, and he got Justin Jefferson in a division where you're playing the bears, the lions are ascending. Who knows about the Packers?

We can't get over eight and a half wins for Minnesota. Or you're like crashing the under there, Tom? I'm looking at the under here. They were, they had all the luck on their side last year. They're a team that's primed for some regression this year. I don't know the exact number, but I think it was 12 and 0 in one possession games last year. Of course, the one one possession game they ended up losing was in the postseason against the Giants. So maybe regression came a little bit early in the NFC playoffs.

But this is a team that was had luck on their side all season. long. I'm expecting it to come back to Earth here a little bit. They did do some pieces on defense with Tomlinson leaving, Patrick Peterson, Eric Kendrick. So they lost some big pieces to that defense. We'll see if they can get that secondary solved a little bit. That was a, you know, for fantasy purposes, that was, hey, go play everybody that's playing against this Viking secondary last year. We'll see if it's improved at all. But they did go out and get Byron Murphy, which was a big move. But this is a team that I cannot bet over after what I saw them doing last year. Joe, who's the team that is jumping out to you in this eight and a half win total grouping?

The Pittsburgh Steelers. Eight and a half. If they go under this number, it would be the first time in his career. Mike Tomlin has a losing record. And it looked like it was going to happen last year, doesn't it? Yeah. So I'm looking at, look, first and foremost, look at Baltimore.

Major turmoil. Deshawn Watson was atrocious last year. Do I think it's going to be the same this year? No. Cincinnati's tough. But I cannot I cannot bet an under on Pittsburgh. I just can't do it.

And with even odds to the over here, Kenny Pickett in his second year, well, George Pickens in his second year. Najee Harris, I think in the second half of last season, look like the player, the Steelers thought they were getting when they drafted them in the first round. We know that they're going to be able to play defense. I think I just saw Bud Dupree is in Pittsburgh right now.

Oh, baby. I think that's one that the Steelers fans really want. I have concerns about the cornerback position, but I'm making a wager on Mike Tomlin and I'm taking the Pittsburgh Steelers over eight and a half wins. Yeah, we got to thank Ryan Poles. We got two picks inside the top 32 picks this year. Exactly. Go get a tackle and a cornerback in the first 32 picks.

certainly going to help here. I still have a little bit of money to spend too. They got to upgrade the safety positions. Another issue for them this off season. But I'm with you, Joe. There's another number plus 575, I think,'s out there for division odds. I know, you know, say something happens to Burrow or Chase. That number just seems a little bit too high. It's really risen the last couple of weeks. I think that looks pretty juicy as well. But what I like, Joe, is the Seattle Seahawks. Okay. I think this team has improved even from last year.

They were able to bring back Gino Smith on a really team-friendly deal. They go out and get Dremont Jones. Bobby Wagner comes back. Julian Lovett's safety. John Reed at on defensive tackle. They really addressed a lot of their holes on defense. That was the bigger weakness for this team last year. So we think Kenneth Walker is a start running back.

I mean, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett get it done. done every year. The question is, is Gino just stays where, at least somewhere where he was at last year. I think this team cruises over eight and a half. We have questions with the Rams and with the Cardinals in that division. They do have a bit of a tough schedule. It's, the NFC West plays the NFC East and AFC South. So you get some, you get some easy games in the AFC South, but the NFC East is a little bit tougher matchups. But I like what the Seahawks have going on here. It seems like number five. They were at all the QB pro days last week.

They're putting that vibe out there that they might be looking at quarterback, but I think they're going to load up. Maybe they go out and get a guy like Jalen Carter who's falling down draft boards, but certainly can play if you watch his tape at Georgia last year. Maybe one of the up to number three goes and gets a quarterback. Maybe they're the ones that get Anderson out of Alabama. I mean, they could, they could, they could potentially have him fall into their laps at number five overall.

So they got those two extra picks from the Broncos last year. So they got four picks inside the top 52 picks, I believe it is. So this team's going to continue to get a little bit better. I got a division odds on them at plus 550. That's dropped to plus 300. I still like them over this eight and a half wins. I think that's going to be probably in my win totals article that will be up on fantasy points.com here a little later this week.

interesting team that I want to bring. Actually, there's a pair of them here. The New York football giants at minus 125 to the under for the eight and a half wins. This is a team last year that was 9-7-1, third hardest schedule coming up next season. So we look at their, I always love looking at the road games. So like I mentioned, Buffalo, Raiders, dolphins, saints, 49ers, all on the road for the New York Giants this year. I think draft kings here is trying to again play to that New York market. You got a lot of goodwill with day ball. They just got the contract for Daniel Jones, Sequan's back, still questions about the line and the defense.

But why are the giants not higher on this list? I thought when this would came out, you would see the Giants in that nine and a half group. But they got them an eight and a half, maybe the tie. People look at it and they love looking at last year. I mean, they only won nine games last year. I mean, they had a tie in there. But this seems to be a team kind of on the come. And it's like eight and a half.

I don't know. I kind of like the Giants over that. What do you guys think? I don't. I'm kind of with you, Joe. I think I love table. 38 slot receivers on this team. I know.

Yeah, they were another team that was running a little hot with the luck last year as well. You know, maybe maybe Daniel, I think the jury is still out on him a little bit. They did improve his receiving core a little bit. They did get Darren Waller, but as Joe said, they do slot wide receivers this year. They still don't have that, like, guy who's a real difference maker on the perimeter.

It still felt like a lot of smoke and mirrors last year. And credit to them, they won nine games, won a player. But it seems like it might be tough to duplicate this year. I wouldn't put it past able to get them up to nine or ten wins, but you have to go through the Cowboys. You have to go through the Eagles in that. My power pair of top six teams. I don't think Washington's a complete rollover in the division as well.

And as he said, the schedule, it was easy last year. All these NFC teams had a very easy schedule last year. It gets a lot tougher this year. So I'm with Joe. I'm leaning a little bit towards the under here. But I have a tough time. Like how I have Josh McDaniels and Dennis Allen as guys that will never bet on I'll never bet on under on Brian Dable.

I mean, really, all they have to do is go, just go nine and eight. You know, I think they can do that. I mean, I trust me, if you've listened to me, ever do a podcast, I am no Giants fan. But yeah, they're okay. How about this team, guys? The Denver Broncos, 5 and 12 last year, just an unmitigated disaster with Russell Wilson coming to town. They're in this eight and a half window, minus 110. They've really tried to beef off that offensive line.

You've got Sean Payton now as the head coach. So a lot more optimism in Denver. Was last year an aberration guys or is this really a team you think can win nine football games? I think Sean Peyton is the, the, the, the, the, the, the, factor here. And I'm not sure Sean Payton is going to be afraid to bench Russell Wilson if things go awry. I think they were they were talking up Jared Stidham a little bit, you know, like I really don't think. Sean Payton has the gravitas to be able to do something like that. So we know Denver's got some ability. They've got some talent, although I do think

their receivers are overrated. Cortland Sutton has never done anything for me. I'm a Judy guy, but eventually the guy's got to produce. Javante Williams is coming off the injury. I think defensively, we know this team's going to be very good, though. And I think Sean Payton does indeed have the Pinoch, the gravitas to bench Russell Wilson if Russell Wilson isn't playing well. So I understand why Demers at eight and a half wins because the talent level on this roster is a lot better than this team was last year.

Yeah, I don't have a real strong feeling on this one. I think the roster is set up for some success, but it's all going to depend on Russell Wilson. The Jared Stidham issue, I could see them, you know, pulling that string to put them in the lineup. But is Jared Stidham really going to get them over nine wins if Russell Wilson gets off to a rough start? So I just don't have any faith in Russell Wilson right now. I could see Peyton kind of used, you know, Peyton's here for the long run. He signed a long-term contract, got the big money. I could see him pulling the string and hey, let's tank a little bit.

Let's get better draft picks. They won't be sending their picks to Seattle next year. There's a chance for them potentially get out of the contract with Russell Wilson start next year. So I would lean towards the under here. They got to play a tough division as well with the Chargers and Chiefs. But I'll push over. I'm laying towards the under here.

I think, you know, Peyton's got his eye on this year, certainly. He doesn't want to come out. He wants to get the fan base excited again. It's been a long time for Broncos fans since that Super Bowl victory with Peyton Manning. But I also think he's eyeing up more towards 2024 and 25. So I would lean towards the under here. All right. So for time purposes here, there's a big chunk of team.

I believe it's nine teams in the seven and a half win total category. Rams, Carolina, Chicago, Patriots, Packers, Raiders, commanders, Titans, and Titans, and Falcons. So let's just kind of pick out a few of these teams. You've got a strong lean on either way, guys. For me, I look at this and I see the Rams, and I'm taking the under on the Rams all day. I think the Rams are in pure tank mode for Caleb Williams.

I don't have any faith in their offense. I mean, literally, name me someone on their defense besides Aaron Donald. They've got no depth at all. So I'd love taking the under on those guys. elsewhere in this group. I mean, the Bears are a big team that sticks out. This is a team that won three games last year. And I know

there's a lot of turnover. Are we saying they can improve five more wins to get the over on that? I'm not so sure. So from this window of teams, Guy, Braley, let's start with you. Any teams that really pop out to you for the over or the under? I'm with you on the Bears one.

I think there's been a lot of smoke being blown up their butts this off season. It's, I love the move to get DJ Moore, but I still have major questions on Johnson Fields as a passer. At some point, you're going to have to win from the pocket a little bit more. We'll see if it happens this year. He's certainly going to have an improved receiving core with DJ Moore.

Now it looks more complete whenever you don't have Dornell Mooney kind of as your number one receiver. So I do like some of the steps they've taken, but I'm with you. Asking for a five-win improvement, I think 2024 is more of their more of their window for playoff hunt and maybe division contending. But a couple more. Yeah, Raiders don't have to go into that one.

We're fan of Josh McDaniels. Unfortunately, that's minus 150. So probably not going to bet that one. Maybe we'll shop around on that one. I also kind of like the Packers over plus 120. Joe was saying Rogers is going to be an FU mode. I think the entire Packers team is going to be an FU mode. They were probably so sick of that guy by the end.

end of the year. Of course, he had a couple of his guys like Randall Cobb and Mercedes-Lewis, but that's a younger team that probably is going to gravitate more towards Jordan Love. Of course, he's a big unknown here, but it's not like this is a huge win total. I think the Packers roster is still relatively strong. I think it underperformed last year, but I think there's a lot of strong pieces on defense. And I also think, just keep an eye on it. you know once this rogers trade goes through they use one of those second round you know it's probably going to be a second round pick they traded elijah more number what number 43 overall they got from the rounds they got a couple of those picks watch them go out and use one of those picks to get dionre

hopkins as soon as uh erin rogers leaves go get jordan love his number one receiver improve that receiving core it'll be a big f you middle fingers to erin rogers hey we went out and got you a number So I think that's something to look out for here. Obviously, the Cardinals have not been able to get what they've wanted in the trade market. So I think that is a possibility. But I wouldn't bet on it. I don't think it's, you know, the Packers aren't necessarily a team that makes splashing moves. But I could see them doing something like that, especially with once the cap space, you know, gets removed from Aaron Rogers deal. They'll have a little bit of flexibility to do something like that. The Carolina Panthers won seven games last year with no quarterback. And I don't know who they're going to draft. I just think with what Frank Reich likes and prefers my lean, and I think a lot of people are leaning this way is C.J. Stroud. Me personally, the more I hear and the more I watch,

I would be afraid to pass on Bryce Young because I just kind of feel like that guy's got it. But C.J. Stroud's an accurate passer. He's a pocket passer. I think Carolina's offensive line is better than people think. I thought it improved towards the end of last year. I know they lost DJ more in the trade. Feeling and DJ Chark are going to be solid options for them. I think they're still going to be in the wide receiver market.

But Carolina, at seven and a half wins with the talent they have on defense, with a new quarterback who's going to be better than Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, I would at least hope for the sake of Panthers fans. I like Carolina over the seven and a half, in a really bad division, by the way. All right. All right. So that's the seven and a half window. We get down to the teams at six and a half, Indianapolis and Tampa Bay. Just a few short years ago, these are, you know, Super Bowl contending teams.

And now we're wondering if they can win seven damn games. Of course, Tampa Bay. We know what's going on there. There's no Tom Brady. We have the Baker Mayfield era or error, whatever you want to call it. Indianapolis, again, you know, we'll go see what they do at quarterback. back. Could Indianapolis, who knows if they get Lamar, we mentioned that in the last two points ands podcast, but even if they get Bryce Young or CJs, whoever they get, maybe they get the kid from Kentucky, can they win seven games running the football with, you know, in that division? I think they can. Honestly, I think just the chance they get Lamar is worth a decent wager here on the over.

I like I I I I I I can't shake that you know all these teams are publicly ruling out Lamar Jackson and correct me if I'm wrong but the Colts haven't and this is one of those situations Drake you and I talked about this on Tuesday on I think it was Monday we talked Tom I don't know what you think I said the Colts couldn't go out this off season and pursue Derek Carr because they can't convince their fan base on Derek Carr you mean to tell me we got Philip Rivers Carson Wentz Matt Ryan and now Derek Harden, you expect us to buy in. The fans will buy into Lamar Jackson. Yeah, and the possibility, if somebody moves up to that number three spot, I don't know how much they love Levis. It seems like he's the number four quarterback at this point. So if somebody moves up and is in that number three hole where it looks like those top three quarterbacks are gone, and if they're not completely sold on Levis or maybe

it's Richardson, whoever could be gone there. at number three. Maybe they do make that splashy move. Maybe that's, that's the spot where we do see Omar Jackson trade. The bucks, I'm looking at the under here. This seems like a team that's, hey, let's get our shit straight for this year. Let's clean over books. This seems like the team out of any, out of all the teams that are out there right now, seems like they're kind of tanking here for Caleb Williams. They should trade Mike Evans right now. I know. We see. We see. said that on his show two weeks ago. I said trade him to Buffalo. I wonder how much him being like it's such a big part of that franchise for like the last nine or 10 years is kind of

holding them back from doing it. But I agree with you team building wise. That's a trade they should make. And yeah, Mike Evans might want it too at this stage of his career. This could be a multi-year rebuild. I think it makes a lot of sense. But that was like the one team that really needed a quarterback and never really seemed to be in play for one of these, you know, bigger named quarterbacks. It doesn't seem like they're really in play to move up to draft one of these quarterbacks. It seems here to go into the season with Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield and see how it kind of plays out. And if it's going poorly, we'll rule with, we'll try to get a little bit worse and maybe get up to that number one pick and take Caleb

Williams. So I'm looking at the under for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are fully committed, it looks like, to paying the check on the Tom Brady tax. And, you know, Tom Brady was there for three years. They went to three playoffs and they won a Super Bowl. Any Buccaneers fan would have taken that. Any Buccaneers executive would have taken that when they made that move. And if they said, we got a tank for a year after that, so be it. You're right.

They brought in Baker made, there is no, they have made no, I mean, I know they're bringing back some players on defense, but they really made, in my opinion, no overtures that they're going to even try to compete in this division. And that's why I say trade Mike Evans because I think there is a chance. Mike Evans is a Hall of Famer. But so is Julio Jones. And I think there's a chance in six months. We're looking at them having traded Mike Evans for a second round pick.

And we're like, oh, man, they really fleeced X, you know, like there's an opportunity for that. That's why I would trade Evans right now. Yeah. I think Tampa Bay is going to be a team at the deadline. They're not going to do it now. Mike Evans contractually, you know, we looked into it. It doesn't make a ton of sense to trade him now. Plus, you still got to sell some season tickets.

You still got to get people in there for half the year. But at that trade deadline, who now it opens up when they've got two wins. And they're like, all right, where this guy's gone, this guy's gone, start building for the future. I like that. The five and a half win window is Houston, Arizona, two of the three probably worst run franchises in the NFL next to the Washington. next to the Washington commanders. Houston was 3 and 13 a year ago. You know, they're quarterback.

They're a disaster. They have very little talent on their team. Arizona, it could be without Kyler Murray for a few weeks to start the season, maybe even up to half the year. Who knows? DeAndre Hopkins is on his way out of town. My trouble here, guys, as bad as these teams are, I get wary of these low wind totals because it doesn't take much in the NFL for something

to bounce your way and the team finds. themselves with six wins. And I was like, okay, you're six and eleven. You still stink, but you beat that, you know, everyone goes, oh, they're going to go under easily. Yeah, I don't know. That's not that many wins. Yeah, I kind of like the Texans won a lot.

I like them over. I think this is a year. They've kind of stunk the last three years, obviously. I've been picking at the top of the draft. All the tea leaves are kind of indicating Bryce Young's going to go there, number two. We'll see how it plays out with Stroud. and number one overall pick.

But it certainly seems like Young's going to be, could be the guy at number two. So I think they automatically get like a huge upgrade of quarterback. I like kind of some of their moves they've made this offseason, bringing in Sheldon rankings, Shaq Mason, Dalton Schultz, and Jimmy Ward. I mean, those are four guys that can play. I like Schultz move a lot. Yeah, it makes a lot of sense for whatever rookie quarterback that they end up getting in there.

We've seen him and Dak, you know, he's been his best. friend here the last couple of years. So I kind of sneaky like a lot of the moves they've made. This is Domeco Ryan's first year. I normally, I stay away from these defensive head coaches. They give me the willies. But I think he might be a little bit different. I think he's kind of a leader of men. I think he's been very aggressive over there in San Francisco. I think he's a bit of a different defensive head coach. And I think, you know, this is kind of a homecoming for him. He could have maybe gotten a number of other jobs, but he wanted this job. I think he wants to come out.

They're tired of losing down there. I think, you know, all we have to do is get over five and a half wins. I'm not saying they're contended for a playoff spot here. Exactly. That's why I'd stay away from that under. I think they could hit that. You got just got to go through this weak AFC South. And they also get crossover games with the NFC South.

And, you know, they get the Cardinals as well as the extra game in the NFC. Houston's winning 12 games. Just put it down. Yeah, let's put it down. All they have to do is get to six. This is probably going to be in my best bets. I've thought long and hard about this one. It scares the crap out of me to back and over with the Texans. But I've been really doing a lot of thinking on this one.

I think I like them over five and a half wins. I totally like that one a lot. I mean, maybe because I'm betting the Colts over, I'll stay away from the Texans. because I don't think the Texans are going to be in the Lamar sweet stakes. I think the Colts could be. But I totally agree. And, you know, I just, I'm getting this vibe on Bryce Young that if the Panthers

pass on him at number one, that we're going to be like, man, why did they do that? Like just. Oh, because the guy was too small. Yeah. No, I've got like this. I get it. I am a firm believer in dogging, you know? Like, I have become that.

And just like, it's why I think Jalen Hertz is freaking great. It's why I think Josh Allen's freaking great. You just can't, you know, it's not everything. Tim Tebow had that dog in. He just wasn't talented enough, you know? But I think Bryce Young's just got it. And he's got the eyes in the back of his head. I don't know.

If Houston comes out with Bryce Young in this draft, I don't care. I think the over is absolutely the bet. I agree with your lean here, Tom. I just handed out Indianapolis is one I like that because I think they could get Lamar. So Arizona, by the way, ain't no way. I'm betting it over on them. But at Houston, yeah, I like the over.

So much fun here, guys. Tom Broley, follow him on Twitter at Tom Broly. See him all over FantasyPoints.com. Folks, this is the best time of the year to go get in at FantasyPoints.com. Get your subscription locked in for 2023. If we need to send a customer support ticket as a returning customer, Mr. Dolan will be happy to respond to that email. But Tom, thanks so much, man. This was a, this is a blast. No, I enjoy it. Every time I come on here, I have a blast. So anytime we, I'm sure there's going to be a lot more betting opportunities later this summer. So have me on whenever. I'm always happy to talk about betting with you guys.

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