Fantasy Football Daily - 2024 Fantasy Playoffs: Winners, Losers & Sleepers | School Of Scott

Episode Date: December 13, 2024

Welcome to School of Scott, the ultimate fantasy football masterclass hosted by Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints.com. In this episode, Scott and Theo Gremminger break down key takeaways from "The Everything Report." Week 15 Everything Report - https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/the-everything-report-week-15#/ Where to find us: http://twitter.com/ScottbarrettDFB http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/the-everything-report-week-4#/ Use promo code SCOREMORE for 10% off your subscription. Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Players have the best upcoming schedule in the fantasy football playoffs. Maybe some dark horse candidates to have smash performances that will lead fantasy managers to titles. But before we talk about the fantasy football playoffs, we've got to talk about the Buffalo Bills and the L.A. Rams. Unbelievable game, 4442 score, the best quarterback performance of Josh Allen's career, and the best wide receiver performance of Pooka to his career. Scott, where are you out on this game? Just how impactful was it for you? And talk a little bit about these two insane performances. Yeah, well, you're actually selling Josh Allen short. It wasn't just the best game of his career, but it was the best game by any quarterback in NFL history, 51.9 fantasy points that surpassed George Blanda's 49.7 in week

11 of 1961. And yeah, so he came into the week ranking fourth in fantasy points per game, now ranked second. And yeah, I bet that holds throughout the remainder of the year. And it's just basically like imagine, so you're saying Lamar Jackson, fantasy QB1. And part of that is, you know, we know he has this supernatural talent. But he's forced to do it all by himself because this Baltimore defense has regret. tremendously. It's the same thing with Josh Allen. In closed games, Josh Allen's like, all right, training wheels come off. I'm going to start running more. You need me to be Superman. I'm going to be

Superman. And so in games decided by four fewer points, he's averaging 31.6 draft Kings Fantasy points per game, just 23.2 in all other games. And then Pooka Nakuha, like you said, best performance in his season. And like what this, this, this. season might be even more impressive to me than last year's record-breaking rookie season, because you have the healthy Cooper Cup now. And you look at the six games that they've played together, full games for Nakuwa, where he didn't leave early. He's out targeting Cooper Cup, 67 to 47, would easily lead all players in XFP per game,

uh, fantasy points per game. And you see him really separating himself. as the clear alpha wide receiver one. And, and like, that's not to diminish Cooper Cup. You know who leads all players in XFP per route run or targets per route run? It's Nekua. And then second is Cooper Cup, who had, you know, maybe the best fantasy wide receiver season ever just a few short years ago.

So I concluded my Nakua blur by saying, yeah, he's an easy top three dynasty wide receiver for me. He was, I thought, you know, one of the most, you know, egregiously mispriced wide receivers and all of Dynasty leading into the season. So I feel good about that. You told me that was controversial. I didn't know that. So, if you agree or disagree? I would say maybe controversial isn't the correct word.

I think that it makes sense. But I would say that it's the sort of the top three going into the year, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, C.D. Lamb. That tier just felt a little bit kind of like cleaner than the tier after it. And I would say the Kua, it was more of, I think sort of maybe a lesson learned here is the people were very quick to try to move Marvin Harrison Jr. ahead of Pooka Nakua. And it was really more of a speculation play rather than we have all this incredible data on Pukkahua. And I actually have the same take you just did on this season's much more impressive to me than the rookie season. And I'll also say, Scott, when we see players miss time and come back with dominating performances,

like spend time on the injured reserve and then come back. So like something bad goes, something like goes poorly for them. And then they're able to bounce back and play even better afterwards. I think that's like something that's carried a lot of like the big time, long time performers in fantasy football. You can circle multiple players who this has happened to over the years. So for me, like I completely agree. with you on the Pukukua side that just how impressive this season has been. We're going to dive into a bunch of these dynasty rankings coming up.

I think at the end of the day, though, he's right in that somewhere between wide receiver three and like wide receiver six range, probably closer to wide receiver three, though. For me, it's just Cidilam. I've already seen him have a wide receiver one overall season where he took it over, whereas Pukua, like last season was super impressive, but the touchdown totals were kind of low. And then this year, we're seeing this massive, massive run, but it's over a smaller sample size than what we saw with Lamb last year. And Lamb still has that relative young age to him. It's not like Nakuwa's like doing this at 21 years old. And then I do throw Malik neighbors into that

mix because what he was able to do statistically in terms of all the metrics that you can look at at Fantasy Points data, target share numbers, air yard share numbers. I mean, this is, is just a guy who if he gets improved quarterback play, you could see having potentially multiple wide receiver one overall type seasons in his career. So I think I think I'm right there with those guys. I do think Pukukua ahead of Amman Ross St. Brown, that's pretty much everybody's on that tip. And I love your Josh Allen take as well. Anytime we have to start going back to Autogram to find a player who's done what he's done, then we're in just masterclass territory. but here at the school of Scott.

Well, I did just want to say, I think you're right. I might be sleeping on CD Lamb, but I don't know. I just see, I think I think Puka has the CD Lamb season we saw last year. I think he has that next year and you might have that the year after that as well. Cooper Cup, 31 years old. 32 next year, extensive injury history and like PPR cheat code upside of all just like out of control. So I don't know. I still feel good about that, but you might be right where it's like a tight top four rather than, you know, he's the clear three.

And off season full of debates. And I'll say one thing that we didn't discuss was the five rushing attempts that they gave him. I think like this is something where they're trying to get the ball in his hands more. And I don't know if it was because of the opponent they were playing the game flow. But that's sort of like BYU Pukinakua, where they were giving him like manufactured rus. rushing attempts. So for me, that's like, I don't know, this could be a really, really fun stretch run when you see Nakua get 17 touches in a game. It's like complete, complete wheels up for him rest of season. But yeah, more dynasty talk in the off season because at the school of Scott,

we're constantly saying that we are taking a deeper dive into the box scores and try to make you become a better fantasy football player. And this is the time of year where strength of schedule really comes into play for so many fantasy managers. It becomes a one-week season in most fantasy football formats where making that correct start-sit decision can literally end your season, Scott. And when you start that guy, because maybe you have a good feeling about a matchup

with some statistical-based information behind it and that player overperforms, like that's low-key, one of the better feelings in fantasy when your gutshot flex over-performed. forms and you made a difficult start-sit decision. So one thing I saw that you wrote in the Everything report, and that's available to you over at Fantasy Points. Check that out. Must read article every week by Scott. You talked a little bit

about Strength the Schedule and you linked something you put out on X, which everybody should go take a look at, where you basically showed the best strength of scheduled all four positions. And I'd like to start out by talking about that a little bit. There's a player that we've sort of hype for, I mean, we're going to victory lap a lot this time of year, Scott. But one player we want to victory lap a little bit about early on here is David and Joku. He's sort of been Mr. December last year and then the start to this season with these two very impressive December performances. But he's been targeted 30 times over his last two games played.

And now, according to your research, he has the second softest playoff schedule of any tight end in football. Are we talking about a repeat of last year or potentially something even better? This, we could be looking at like 20 points per game at the tight end position over the next three weeks. Yeah. Yeah. You look at what he's done the last two weeks, 30 targets more than any other player. It's kind of weird like the, well, I guess the production has been there is three touchdowns and some receptions, but efficiency not really. really the yardage not there. So maybe things are different with with Jerry Judy, you know, ranking behind only Jamar Chase and yards per game since James Winston took over.

But I don't know. I think that's right. I think, I think we're the expectation should be Njoku coming close to what he did last year, where he was far and away, one of the most valuable players you could have owned in fantasy. Average 22.1 fantasy points per game over the final five weeks of the season that was behind only two wide receivers would have led all tight ends by something like or minus Evan Ingram by like 40%. Andgram also went on like a heater at the tail end of last season. And yeah, I love Judy. I think he's awesome. But he's just not getting wide. He's putting up wide receiver one numbers. He's just not getting wide receiver one target volume. And Njoku is. And so you add on to that second best

matchup schedule of any tight end. I think he's set up perfectly to do exactly what he did last year. Yeah, no, I love it. And I certainly have a ton of David and Joku. He was a player that I recommended trading for in Dynasty in my Dynasty article at fantasy points towards the trade deadline for FFPC. Sort of he's got this underrated reputation where just on a dynasty perspective, have people refuse to sort of move him up to the truly, truly elite tier. But he's been a league record last year. And Scott's not the only one with very, very dank stats on this show. I'll drop a dank one for you.

So Major League Baseball has Mr. October. That's Reggie Jackson, who continually outperformed in the playoffs. For us, we have Mr. December. David and Joku has to average 21.7 points per game over his last 6 December game. So this guy is truly bringing it home in fantasy football for really two years in a row. And I think I agree with you that everything's sort of setting up for him to absolutely smash the rest of the way. Getting away from the tight ends, let's talk about Anjoku's former teammate for a moment. Last year, if you played best ball, like if you were like a heavy, heavy hitter in bestball and you maxed out contests,

Amari Cooper either made or broke your season. because I know a lot of competitive bestball players who were completely knocked out if they had a lack of exposure to Amari Cooper in week 16. Last year, Amari Cooper put up this insane scoring outburst that was just remarkable and almost completely out of nowhere for him to put up that high of a scoring outburst. This was kind of the best ball elimination game that either was something that you look back fondly upon or you look back and it kind of lives in infamy. You reference three wide receivers that you think could have a blow-up type game

that could massively impact fantasy football playoff performances. Who are those three wide receivers that are really trending up because of their strength of schedule? Yeah, that would be Jacoby Myers, Malik neighbors, DJ Moore, who have far and away the best remaining strength of schedule. He actually all only have like a neutral matchup in your championship. week, Week 17. But these next two weeks, all of them and also, by the way, like Romo Dunezay and Keenan Allen and Wondell, they're a little less relevant. All have back-to-back top three matchups. And I think, I think at least one of them has the potential to do what Amari Cooper

did in week 16, where starting him was basically an auto win to get you to your fantasy championship. If I had to pick one, it would be DJ Moore. And he might not have the high. like median projection in my head, you know, of these wide receivers. But I feel like he definitely has the best ceiling. You just look at what he's done since Thomas Brown took over. He's seen at least seven targets in four or four games averages nine point five. Three design targets per game. So you know what? That does increase his floor.

And then you saw on Thanksgiving, if you included plays negated due to penalty, he had six deep targets. which is one of the most of any player in any game this season. Then last week, you know, he was really badly banged up. But, yeah, 18.8 fantasy points per game since Thomas Brown took over. You saw that insane usage, good volume, good production on Thanksgiving, a little banged up last week and now back-to-back top five matchups. I could see a week-winning performance from him.

Yeah, I think DJ Moore also is not dealing with just potentially, absurdly bad quarterback performance in a particular game that could just wreck them. He is. I mean, it's not Desmond. Yeah, I mean, there's levels to this. It's bad, but it's not like, okay, this could go really, really, really, really bad. It could go bad, but not quite as bad as those guys. I love that you're on DJ Moore. I think this is one where, like, seeing him bounce back with the regime change was sort of a breath of fresh air for DJ Moore fantasy managers. This was a really, really frustrating season, but maybe some of these teams can get it back. And also you have the, like for

best ball, for potentially the fantasy football playoffs, when you're in big contests, a guy like DJ Moore, there will be fewer DJ more teams in the field. So a blowup contest could make even more of an impact. And I'll say Malik neighbors to me, this is one where we had the news sort of on Friday that he's dealing with injuries. I was nervous enough to include him, to include that in my athletic article because I thought maybe he was going to get shut down for the year. So for him to come back and get 10 targets, I think that was a big win for Malik Neighbors fantasy managers. Just on a pure talent perspective, it seems like he's due for a very big one, despite the situation at quarterback, despite the limitations of the offense.

Like the Baltimore game this week, this could be a really, really big Malik Neighbors one. He's sitting on 80 receptions for the year. we've been sort of talking about the Brock Bowers rookie reception records but at the end of the day, Malik Neighbors now has four games left where we're talking about a guy who could get pretty high up there in the in the totals as well.

I want to pivot over and talk a little bit about the running back situation because one of the teams that has a very positive schedule is the New York Jets. Why don't you talk a little bit about that why you like the Jets running backs in the fantasy playoffs. And is this a Brees Hall take? Or would you have confidence in an Isaiah Davis or Braylin Allen if say Hall was shut down for the year? Yeah. So the Jets have a top three matchup this week and a top three matchup in week 17.

I'm kind of hoping it's it's Breece Hall. And I know we talked about last week the potential for them to shut him down. But, you know, he was barely healthy enough to play. two weeks ago, and he still had over a 60% snap share. It doesn't seem like this team wants to give up. Aaron Rogers doesn't want to give up too much, I don't know, pride at stake. Because, you know, there's going to be a new regime ushered in next year. And so I feel like I would trust Breece Hall as like a fringe RB1 this week, given the matchup, given the 60 plus percent snap share last time he was banged up.

But if it's not, if we get this sort of Braylin Allen, Isaiah Davis committee. It's kind of tough to say who I like. It seems like a perfectly evenly split 50-50 committee backfield. I think in any game, the Jets are likely to lead throughout, which doesn't seem like should be a high expectation in any given week.

It would be Braylon Allen, who really profiles is that, you know, early down workhorse who gets better the more touches he tends to get. And so, yeah, you see Jacksonville this week. If, if Brees Hall is out, I do kind of like Braylon Allen. I think in DFS, you would stack them up with the Jets defense and, you know,

hope the Jets command a lead throughout. Maybe that's a 20-carry game. And last week was more just a function of a tight game script. I mean, if they do shut down Brees Hall, then it looks like Isaiah Davis in week 16 against the Rams, week 17 against the Bills. But really, you're hoping for Brees Hall, and I think Brees Hall can succeed in any of those matches. Yeah, no, I don't know. I think Brees Hall is going to get shut down.

I think that, like, if he doesn't play this week, I don't know if they're going to bring him back. I think this whole, like, I know Jeff Obrick is kind of saying the right things here, and they're sort of not at that point to shut him down. But I do think there'll be some caution and also the sort of like, what are we playing for thing here? and also seeing what you have with these two rookie running backs who have looked impressive. Each of them has sort of looked impressive at times this season. I'm with you, though. Braylon Allen, I think if I would have told you he gets this many carries, this many targets.

Without the context of I did Zay Davis scoring a touchdown, I think people sort of would have taken it. It's a true split, but what better team to have a split against than the Jacksonville Jaguars. in a game that if the Jets have an opportunity to kind of put it on, I think that they will. Jags are sort of in bad shape. Scott, let's spend like 30. So I don't feel super strongly about this. Like you very well might be right. I just think this is like a mildly interesting detour. This is something I've talked to, I think Sigmund Bloom popularized. We've talked about it a lot in his show, that it's the assumption of rational coaching or maybe rational GMing where like, yeah, you have nothing to play for. You should shut Breece Hall down.

that makes all this sense of the world. I think, I think that's, that's a fallacy, the assumption of rational coaching. What I think matters more is what Charlie Munger would say, which is, show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome. And it's like, Obrick knows he's not going to be with this team next year. And so, you know, he wants to make himself look as good as possible. I think Aaron Rogers as well has taken so much heat. He is playing through multiple injuries. he's refusing to get his, his, you know, x-rays done, and he's just, he's just out there anyway. I think these guys are going to play hard. I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, Brees Hall stupidly comes in with a limited practice

participation every game this, every day this week, and then somehow gets a 75% snapshot. I think that would be stupid, but I also kind of think that's the most likely outcome. But again, I don't really know. I just thought that might be an amusing detour. On the flip side, you've had sort of a positive storyline this season with Naji Harris. We talked about him a few weeks ago after he had a really strong performance. And two weeks ago, he was a top five running back. But this past week, George Pickens was missing.

And there was sort of a change in the running back usage in Pittsburgh. This is also a team that's shaping up for a very difficult fantasy playoff schedule. Talk a little bit about your confidence level in Najee Harris and the impact of Jalen Warren and really what the Steelers are facing the next few weeks. Yeah, I really don't have much confidence in being able to predict this situation too much. Maybe I was a little too overly excited about Harris's Uber Belkow workload the previous week. But yeah, it was Jalen Warren, who without George Pickens tied for the team lead in Target shares. had over a 50% snap share. And yeah, by the way, no receiver really stepped up.

I mean, Fryermouth scored a touchdown, but yeah, it was like a really gross four-way committee where I don't think any of the other wide receivers are fantasy relevant. And so he gets, so the Steelers get the Eagles, Ravens chiefs, and it would make sense for, like, certainly that hurts Najee, who we know is not as strong in negative game scripts. But it seems like this should benefit Warren, you know, 15% target share last week. These are all games where certainly not a lock for, for Steelers to win, like many of their games. So they've trailed behind. Maybe we see Warren get a lot more playing time and a lot more targets, certainly more than Naji would have.

And regarding George Pickens, just go rest up George Pickens because you play on Christmas Day. and we want everyone with George Pickens on their teams to get like a 35-pointer. So go rest up. Christmas Day, 35-pointer. That's sort of our goal here. We're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, Scott and I are going to talk about some players you need to keep an eye on in week 15 and beyond. Welcome back to the School of Scott Fantasy Football podcast.

I'm Theo Gramiger. You can find all of all of the information that Scott is referencing over at Fantasy Points in his article, The Everything Report. And all of the data we're going to discuss is available to you through fantasy points data. Go check it out. Highly recommended. Scott, one player who had an exceptional performance in week 14 was Jordan Addison. This is a player that if you started him and you needed to win in week 14 to get into your fantasy football playoffs, Addison certainly delivered. He ended up with a 39 point game.

This was the highest fantasy outperformance of his entire career. And this has been a player that has scored a ton of touchdowns in his short career. It's now at 17 touchdown catches in only 28 regular season games played. How highly should we be valuing Addison down the stretch and in the fantasy football playoffs? Yeah, this was kind of one I saw coming. I liked Addison more than just about anyone in DFS last week. And I think this is real. He's now out-targeted and outscored Jefferson in three of their last four games together.

He ranks seventh among all receivers and first read target share over that span. Jefferson ranks 45th. Addison also ranks sixth in fantasy points per game. Jefferson ranks 20th. I'm not really at all worried about Jefferson. He's the best wide receiver in football. If he's not, he's the second best behind Jamar Chase. So he's still like an easy top three, top four wide receiver.

in redraft in my eyes, but I am viewing this, this Jordan Addison ascendance as real. I think he is a high-end wide receiver two this week. And like, yeah, it's, it's sort of coming at Jefferson's expense, but I mean, chase is behind T. Higgins in first read targets and games they've played together this year. And like, that hasn't slowed him down at all. Maybe the more involved Addison is, the more tape you have on him,

making big plays, start to recognize you can't just double Jefferson. And so that opens Jefferson up, you know, further down the road, hopefully, ideally. I don't know. That's kind of what I'm thinking. You know, I'm with you. I really like Addison. And Addison was one that really fell this year in ADP.

It was sort of a gravitational pull with all Minnesota Vikings, skill position players. And they've all sort of delivered Justin Jefferson, you were able to get him later than you've ever been able to draft him since his rookie season. season. He's wide receiver two overall, which doesn't mean as much as wide receiver two overall has in some previous years, but still wide receiver two overall. Jordan Addison dropped significantly with some of the quarterback concerns. And then Aaron Jones has been a value this year as well. So it sort of continues the trend here. But for me, Addison's in this could be in very rare company, Scott. If he has three more touchdown grabs this year, that'll put him on 10 in the season. that'll be his second consecutive year with double-digit touchdowns and only two years played.

The only other Minnesota Vikings with two seasons of double-digit touchdown scores are Chris Carter, Randy Moss, and Adam Thielen. So he's really moving up there in the record books. Now, my question for you is we've talked about like the incredible wide receiver consolidation, the teammate target share for the Cincinnati Bengals, and also for the L.A. Rams in multiple previous shows. With the way the performance we just saw out of Addison and Jefferson, would you put this duo into the mix with Cincinnati and the L.A. Rams if you had to like, if you could roster a wide receiver duo for the fantasy football playoffs,

are these guys at least in the conversation, or they're still a very solid third behind our two favorites? Yeah, they're a very solid third. It's hard to, you know, compare them to. to Nakuwa and Cup, who ranked first and second in targets per route run, or T. Higgins and Jamar Chase, who, like, combine their fantasy points per game and, you know, no other duo comes close. So, yeah, definitely a third, but it's, like, interesting. And, like, that's why I made that comparison to, you know,

Chase being behind Higgins and targets, but still, you know, even more productive in games Higgins has played. Like, I don't know necessarily that this hurts Jefferson, or at least I just, like, refuse to believe it. But, yeah, Addison, no doubt, has stolen his thunder. Jefferson only one game with double-digit targets this year. He hit that mark in seven of eight full games last year. Fewer spike weeks, he had one last week. But again, Addison outscored him.

But, yeah, definitely third, I would say. So just to stick with wide receivers, your thoughts on Brian Thomas. This is a player where we talk about bad quarterback situations. it's a Mac Jones led offense. We have really no confidence in the quarterback, but there's some really strong trends with Thomas lately. Your confidence level in Thomas finishing out his rookie year, sort of on a continued upward trajectory,

he's had 18.7 and 16.6 points scored over his last two games. And Scott, the target numbers are tremendous. He's had his two highest target totals of the season since Jacksonville's by week. Yeah, I want to lead off by saying no, Mac Jones is really bad, really bad for BTJ. Mac Jones is zero of 13 on deep passing attempts with three interceptions. So he ranks 45th or there are 44 quarterbacks who've completed a deep pass attempt. Matt Jones is not one of them. and like that's BTJ's bread and butter so that is not great the good news is volume has been

awesome you had 215 air yards in week 13 that was 55% more than his previous high last week 47% first three target share first time he was over 33% all year by fantasy points per game xfp per game over the span fringe top 15 that's also where I'd rank him honestly like despite the mac jones concerns just no christian Kirk, no Gabe Davis, Emmett Ingram struggling. I just think he's really good, too. Like, our producer Thomas would say this isn't real and no one's no one's selling BTJ and dynasty. But if anyone was, like I would absolutely want to be buying. Before he had that chest injury, he was averaging 2.81 yards per route run through the first eight weeks of the season.

That would have ranked behind only Nico Collins and Justin Jefferson at the time. We're ranked as the best wide receiver season in fantasy points data history. So really buy into the notion that this is a very high caliber talent. And so despite the quarterback concerns, EB a mid-range wide receiver two for me and, you know, obviously a player I would love to have in Dynasty League. Yeah, no, I'm completely with you. And if the season ended today, you would have two rookie wide receiver ones,

which was sort of a, when we podcasted last summer, That was a prediction that I continually made on a bunch of shows was that we were going to have two wide receivers, rookie wide receivers finish as wide receiver ones on the season. One was Marvin Harrison Jr., not Brian Thomas, but at least that was a pretty good prediction. And I think that people are going to get more and more excited about Thomas when we get to the off season and sort of his pathway to a big time, big time year two. because things will settle out a little bit for Jacksonville. I think that the sentiment on the community is just so bad with everything Jacksonville related. But, hey, there's rumors they're going to get Ben Johnson as their head coach. There's going to be a lot of potential things that could happen to sort of even things out.

And we'll also enter the year with Brian Thomas as the focal point of the offense, the unquestioned focal point of the offense. So, hey, Josh Gordon, Josh Gordon maybe in year two for Brian Thomas. I think we're looking at a potential blow-up season. So for Thomas, I'm excited, and I do think he'll close up the season well. If he's going to get this sort of target volume, it doesn't really matter how bad Mac Jones is. I think he'll do enough with it that he's going to give you, like you said, I completely agree on the wide receiver two values.

So let's stick with really, really bad teams right now. Are we seeing a repeat of last year where Antonio Pierce leans on a lightly used running back and this running back is able to sort of thrive through volume and give us running back two performances in the fantasy football playoffs. Last year, it was Zemir White. This year, it looks like sincere McCormick. McCormick is trending up, at least in terms of usage. And Amir Abdullah was completely invisible. It's the McCormick show in Vegas.

Yeah, I mean, Zemir White won people fantasy leagues last year, and he won Antonio Pierce head coaching gig. So I can definitely see him doing the same with Sincere McCormick, who, by the way, has been awesome. You look at all of his efficiency metrics, sixth and yards per carry, third and an explosive run rate, ninth in yards after contact per 10. You look at Zemir White, Alexander Madison. They're all like bottom 10 in those metrics. So like, why wouldn't you give this a shot, right? I don't know that I totally believe it.

It's a small sample. And I'm not really sure this guy's that good, but I could certainly see it happening. I think, you know, we're in the territory where like, yeah, why not just blow a bunch of fab on the guy? Because there's probably not going to be another player with as much upside we'll find throughout the remainder of the season. But yeah, cautious optimism, I would say. What do you think? Did you, did you do any deep dives on McCormick as a prospect when he was coming? At Texas, San Antonio, he had nearly 3,000 rushing yards. And it was a team that was sort of trending up. That was like a Texas San Antonio was sort of a positive story. storyline and McCormick was their like focal point. But I didn't really think of him necessarily as an

NFL guy. And most of the teams certainly didn't either. He spent a lot of the season on the practice squad. But I think that this time of year, once in a while we see these guys over a very short sample size, just they're fresh. They're ready to go. And they take this opportunity and they run with it. I think we should be treating him as an RB3. And if we go in treating him as an RB3, then we'll be happy with the RB2 performances. But usage-wise, he certainly looks that way. And you never know. It's not like this backfield is just littered with guys that are surefire bets to make the team next year.

I mean, you could easily see them move on from Alexander Madison, Zemir White, Dylan Lobby, shout out Long Island, hasn't done a thing. So you could see Vegas enter the season with a rookie or free agent as they're starting running back. and McCormick could do enough over these last few games that they say, this is a guy who can be a backup running back for us in the NFL. So we're rooting for him. I had him very highly ranked in my waiver wire column this week, as I'm sure most did, because he's got the opportunity and a coach who loves using a back in this sort of way.

We've already seen it. Why can't history repeat itself? We're going to take a quick break. When we come back, I promise, we're going to talk about better players than sincere McCormick and a couple of teams that are better than the Jaguars and the Raiders. Scott, every week in the Everything report, you talk about XFP. You sort of rank players by their XFP for the season and then for the week as well.

And one player who scored 18.9 points on the week, but could have had even more, was Devon A. Chan. This is a player who has been tremendous for us this season. Scores another touchdown this week. Continues to get peppered with targets, seven targets, catches six of them. But A-chan, again, scores 18.9 points. But with Rahim Mostert out, A-chan, we saw a considerable spike in terms of his usage. Why don't you talk about that a little bit? Yeah, career high in Snapshare, 83%.

31.6xFP scored below that with 18.9. But that's like an insane number, easily a career high for him. Without Mostert, you see a Snapshare bump. He gets all of the near end zone work. And so, yeah, in any game with Tua, without Rahim Moster, how should you value him? Ryan would say he's easily in consideration as the overall RB1. I would probably water that down just a little bit. Top three, maybe, certainly top five.

And that distinction, I think, is, well, it's interesting with H-N. So, like, now he's due for a positive regression, right? he's he's been pretty inefficient he's been scoring well below his expected fantasy points but like the xfp are elite out of control he's game he's not game script sensitive because he's basically like a wide receiver too as a pass catcher and then he's also getting double digit carries and all the near end zone work it's just like interesting how this happens you know like you would think okay here's here's a positive regression candidate right here's courtland sutton positive so like slowly ticking up. No, no, no, no, he just flips a switch and now he's a fantasy wide receiver one.

That's what we saw, you know, from the first seven or so weeks to today. I'm thinking about Tony Pollard. You know, he was the most hyper-efficient player in fantasy. His second of last year with the Cowboys in terms of XFP versus fantasy points. The next year, he was one of the least efficient. And you see the same thing with Achan where he had the best ever season, not just rookie running back. season by yards per carry. And then this year he's averaging, what is it? 3.9 yards per carry, went from 7.8 to 3.9. And so it's so weird how this happens, like the regression guy, like, you think it would just be like, okay, instead of 7.8 yards per carry, he's at 4.5. No, no, no, no, he's well below average. It's just like so weird how that works. So this is just a,

you know, roundabout way of saying, yeah, I would say top three, Ryan would say one. because, you know, Ryan things just the... Ryan also is an agist and he doesn't want to acknowledge those too old. That is true. So shout out to Ryan. We'll also say that it's kind of a with A-chan, yeah, it's kind of remarkable how the usage has changed. I think that we all sort of expected him to take a step forward as a receiver in year two. That was always, you know, part of the thesis and the narrative with him smashing this year is his upside's going to move up.

We're going to see him in different ways. They're going to be more comfortable using them as a receiver. And it's really blown up. I mean, the guys at 63 receptions on the season leads all running backs with six touchdown catches on the year. And he is in a dead heat with Alvin Kamara. So it's sort of been like a, it's been where we've sort of speculated that this could happen. But I would bet on Devon A. Chan finishing the season with the most receptions at the

running back position and passing Alvin Kamara by this week. Just my gut. A-chan has 63 catches. Kamara has 64. A-chan finishing the season with the most catches at the running-back position, I think he's going to put his 2025 ADP in Fuego. People are going to get very excited about that stat. But let's talk about Kamara because Kendra Miller returned. And there should be a little bit of concerns with the Kamara ceiling for the fantasy football playoffs. Would you agree with that statement? Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean, his, his carry share fell all the way to 57%. Hasn't scored a touchdown in seven straight games. And it looked like Kendra got that red zone role that Taysam Hill had. Darren Rizzy basically said as much. So I know Derek Carr's out for the

season. Yeah, I don't know that he's, I would say he's like a low and mid to low end RB1. And when last week I was saying, yeah, he's a top five lock. Yeah. And it was a grown ass man touchdown too, which is the sort of like carry where, you know, not all touchdowns are equal. When you watch that Kendry Miller touchdown run, it also made a huge difference in the game. And Darren Rizzy, it's like the complete opposite of Dennis Allen. Dennis Allen went out of his way to bash Miller whenever he could, whereas Rizzi is just all about Kendra Miller. So I think we'll see a good amount of Kendra down the stretch.

Kamara is really going to need to deliver with the reception totals if he's going to give you that top five potential outcome. I think you're much better off kind of looking at it like Scott said, where Kamara will be a low-end RB1, and that's fine. But if you're expecting more, be prepared to be disappointed. sticking at the running back position, this has been sort of an ongoing discussion that we've had for weeks now about this Kansas City backfield. What is your expectation level for Isaiah Pacheco down the stretch, this whole backfield really? Is there a, are you trusting Pacheco in your lineup in a

make it or break it week 15? Oh man, this is a tough one. You saw his snapshot jump from 33% to 48%. You say he's trending in the right direction or even that like the usage is already good he had 70% the backfield carries but i don't know 40 48% snap shear is not great it's i i just with the chiefs you worry it's like do they really want to fully unleash him right now like isn't this who they are where you know they're not going to really kick it into hyperdrive into the playoffs like I just want to rant on this on Twitter just about how insane the odds are for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. It's plus 500. Do you know what it was September 1st?

It was plus 500. And they have a 73% chance of locking up the number one seed and the buy. And so you basically get that for free. You have all these people who are like, you know, crazy conspiracy theorists. The NFL is rigged. Anyone who has bet on the Chiefs in game when they're down in the fourth quarter, like they're up 5,000 units right now. So it's like, I don't think the NFL is rigged.

But yeah, why not give me the one team where it might potentially be rigged for is going to have the buy has one, each of the last two Super Bowls has that Super Bowl experience. And yeah, but that's the thing is you have all these analysts who are like, well, look at their point differential. Like, they're not that. It's like, I don't know that they actually try in the regular season because they don't need to. They're sleepwalking their way into a number one seat. And so, yeah, I don't know that they need to give Pacheco workhorse, Belcow volume. I think it would make more sense coming off an injury to have this be a committee,

which is sort of what coach speak has implied. To me, he's just a low-end RB2 this week. Yeah, I don't think I'm trusting him. I think that he's going to get you about 15 touches. If he falls in the end zone, you're feeling good about that start. if he doesn't, you're feeling probably pretty terrible about it. But I think that it is what you want to see that Pacheco is able to absorb volume. He's fully healthy.

And I think they will unleash him in the fantasy playoffs. One storyline kind of not on the show sheet that hopefully we'll have more information about when we meet next week is Hollywood Brown. They're sort of targeting this return. If ever a team needed a offensive spark of some sort, it's the Kansas. Chiefs who look like they're completely stuck in the mud. So we'll keep an eye on that one. And hopefully we're talking about a James Wint, and I usually like to stay completely neutral.

But for content-wise, it would be great to see James Winston get a win over Kansas City in Cleveland this week. It gives us a lot more to talk about next week than a Patrick Mahomes wins like by three points again, something like that. Sticking with the running back position, James Cook is an enigma. he now has more touchdowns than any Buffalo Bill's skill position player in the Sean McDermott era. He's got 12 touchdowns on the season, but he also had a sub 50% snap rate. So I think one thing is we try to take a deeper dive into the box scores.

We try to take a deeper dive into all the metrics. And James Cook is the kind of player that if you're looking at counting stats this time of year, you're feeling a lot better about him in your lineup than if you're someone like yourself, Scott, who's taking a look at everything else, specifically snaps and trends. Where should people be viewing James Cook entering the fantasy football playoffs? Yeah, he's tough. To me, he's just like a low-end RB2. It looked like last week it was a three-way committee,

which would actually be a four-way committee if you factor in Josh Allen. to me he's just a low end RB2 who like will randomly explode for weeks where he scores multiple touchdowns to me I don't think that's this week against the lions really makes sense to me that would but really you just never know and I haven't had any success predicting it from a DFS perspective when these sort of spike weeks come yeah it's funny the last time that the two of us were in lockstep about James Cook maybe taking a step back it was uh week heading into week and we were both like, this is going to be potential for Ray Davis to make a little bit more of a dent. And then James Cook got us that week.

He had a 28-pointer. It was the best game of the season. That was maybe our most incorrect shared take of the entire school of Scott since we started doing this together. So James Cook, let us know in the comments if you disagree with us. But I don't like seeing anybody sub 50%. And you brought up, you know, Kansas City for the playoffs. The bills also don't have to give James. Cook too many carries. They can very much work in different players. One thing I do think is they don't

Josh Allen's on this absurd touchdown running streak. I don't think they necessarily want that. And you start looking towards the end of the season as well, like that week 17, week 18 game, do they sit James Cook potentially in week 18? I'm not, I'm not sure. But James Cook like this week for Detroit, I think I think maybe I'm a little bit higher on him than you are, but I agree that he's somewhere right in that mid-R-B-2 range. And one player who could be actually rising up is Rashad White. It's been a sort of emotional roller coaster for Rashad White managers this year. He was basically usurped by Bucky Irving.

Bucky Irving had the back-to-back 27-point games. We're sitting here gushing over Bucky Irving for multiple times on this show, Scott. And certainly in the Everything report, you've sort of discussed Bucky Irving's rise. Joe Dolan was like we can't use Bucky Irving on the thumbnail for your dynasty article because I wrote about him so many times I've got to chill out on it. But Bucky's been incredible. But now it looks like with Bucky's back injury, Rashad White.

Rashad White is trending up big time, specifically for this week. And if this is something that lingers with Irving, Rashad White could be a player that impacts the fantasy football playoffs. Yeah, absolutely. This is just a really valuable backfield. It's, I think the second or third most valuable backfield by total XFPs, where even like a 60% opportunity share could lead to RB1 fantasy numbers. Obviously feel best about a healthy Bucky Irving, if he is healthy,

just because he has the hyper efficiency to back it up. But if not, no, Rashad White could go crazy. And I think it's notable now, too, that it's more of a two-way committee than a three-way committee, Sean Tucker, only had four touches, and he didn't play until after Irving was done for the day with that injury. So yeah, there's tremendous upside here. Yeah, no, I'm with you. And Rashad White also gives you that floor because if the backfield's all to himself, he's going to get all those backfield receptions. We also saw Irving take a big step forward as a receiver out of the backfield. That's sort of been Rashad White's MO. The number two, number two in

in running back touchdown receptions on the year behind Devon A-chan is Rashad White with five. So he's been very efficient with them as well and also fortuitous with his touchdown scoring. And yeah, you talked about how valuable this backfield is for running back scoring. Big shout out to Liam Cohen. You know, last year we were very excited about Dave Canales and what he was able to get out of Rashad White. It's sort of a tradition that's continued in Tampa Bay with these backs being able to sort of outperform their expectations in multiple weeks.

And a big shout out also to Ryan Grubb. We didn't even really talk about Zach Charbonnet's incredible game. Any thoughts on Charbonnet? This is one where 38 points this past week. What a unbelievable performance for Charbonnet ends up with 29 touches, catches seven passes. I mean, Charbonnet has eight rushing scores of the year. That's tied with Ken Walker. really he's been in my opinion the most valuable backup to have because he's given you these

three RB1 performances that have been all smash games yeah yeah any game ken walker's out he's an uber bell cow where yeah you're you're looking at a player who should be i don't know top five among running backs and rankings maybe even a little above that um i will just say like that would also be true, I think, of Kenneth Walker, if Charbonnet were out. And it's also, Charbonnet did benefit from, like, you look at, like, Seattle's had easily the worst run-blocking offensive line in football through the first, I don't know, five or so weeks. They were two games in which Walker missed. They were closer to average, and then they just really fell off a cliff. And then last week, particularly in the first half, or last week, yeah, their best game run-blocking

ever and I asked or Brian asked our film watchers or data charters about this and they were like yeah Walker must have been fuming on the sidelines Seattle especially in the first half the holes that they were opening up Walker hasn't seen that in you know eight plus weeks and this is probably their best performance yet so I will just say yeah like you hear people running wild with Charbonnet is you know he's so talented he's more talented than Walker I don't buy that. I really just think it's mostly a product of usage and then, you know, benefiting from, I don't know, just randomly great offensive line play last week.

But yeah, no doubt any game without Walker Charbonnet is a must-start, potential fantasy league winner. Does it sound like he's going to be back this week? It sounds to me like it's, if I had to put money on it, it would be Charbonnet gets another start this week. That's just sort of the gut feel based on what we're having, what we're hearing coming out of Seattle. And again, Scott and I are recording this on Wednesday so things can change. But I do think we're going to get one more week of Zach Charbonnet. So I think this will be one that'll be interesting to hear people discussing all offseason. You know, look at what Zach Charbonnet was able to do. Sort of a number of metrics will lean towards Charbonnet. And the bottom line is they're both really,

really good at football. This is easily the best one-two backfield, I think, besides Detroit. Seattle's really, really has something with Charbonnet. I think that the nightmare would be Seattle does some, you know, self-scouting and says we need to get both of these guys more involved next year, and we end up sort of limiting the what we've been able to get out of the RB1 in the Ryan Grubb offense year two. So I think this will be one for a big offseason type discussion. But bottom-line, line if you have Charbonnet and Walker misses another game, it's just complete wheels up. He'll go 20 points or more. And the usage is going to be like Scott said, I mean, when you get Scott using the word Uber Belkow,

get excited because usage is going to be pretty good. And Scott, a chance to do a little victory lapping. We love victory lapping this time of year. Joanne Jennings, what a great performance by Jennings. And to add a little bit of context, Joanne Jennings smashes, completely dominates the wide receiver targets in San Francisco. And he has this incredible performance while George Kittle gets 150 receiving yards. Talk a little bit about Joanne Jennings. Every time he does well, we're going to remind everybody that Scott was calling him a league winner weeks and weeks ago. Yeah, he's led the team

in targets in five of five games since returning from injury. 29% target share ranks behind only Pooka Nakua still ranks top five in yards per route run across the full season. And if you look at what he's done, especially if you adjust for that Blizzard game, the Purdy, the game Purdy set out. Yeah, to me, definitely looks like a league winner. So feel really good about that call. Yeah, no, I love it. And then when you, when you combine it with Debo, you know, looking like he's, I, I don't want to say cooked. Fat? Yeah, I think, well, I wouldn't want to say cook. I wouldn't want to say fat or cooked, but I'll say on the on the downward spiral of his career, like, Like we've seen his best fantasy performance.

Joanne Jennings is really trending up. And we talk about Dynasty. Like I think Joanne Jennings is going to be one where considering buying high right now, it's not something that could burn you down the stretch because I think he's done enough that going into 2025, Jennings is going to have a clear role on this team. Brandon Ayuk's coming back. But I expect San Francisco to move on from Debo Samuel this offseason. Ricky Purcell, of course, we'll take a step forward in.

year too. But at the end of the day, I think Jennings is real. And I think Brock Purdy loves him. And this, I think, could continue. I think he's one that is just a very good player. And every single game where he's had eight or more targets, he's had 16 or more fantasy points. He was also a very efficient player. Excited to see him down the stretch. Chase Brown, any one of victory lap a little bit here on Chase Brown? Chase Brown, another smash week. Another smash. Just going to keep doing that insane Uber Belkow. And so it's the same thing. It's like, you know, Charbonnet without Walker, easy, easy game, must start, league winner,

et cetera. Yeah, I know. I absolutely love it. And then just we'll pile on with the victory lapping. Adam Thielen, we talked about him weeks and weeks before. And Adam Thielen, looking like in every week, wide receiver two, moving forward in the fantasy playoffs, we're just building generational wealth for you here. at the school of Scott through fantasy football league winning money.

Scott, Tray McBride, let's quickly, will he end this horrible streak that he's on? The usage is absolutely incredible. The performances continue, but he hasn't caught a touchdown pass all year. This week, if he has seven catches, then he will be the all-time leader. He'll break Deontay Johnson's 22 record of the most receptions without a touchdown. will he get one this week, Scott? I will say it like it's not entirely bad luck because he's not seeing a ton of end zone targets, targets inside the 10 yard line, all that stuff.

But he is definitely due. What you could do is you could look at XTD versus actual TDs. And there's a few players who have run worse in the touchdown department than he has. Romo Dunzee, for instance, is one. I have no way of knowing when it's going to come. just say regression doesn't work the way you think it works. So like whenever he scores his first touchdown, he's going to add another two in that game because that's just for whatever reason, somehow how it works. It's either going to come one of these next few weeks or it's going to come

next season. And he'll have, he'll have Grankowski like touchdown numbers. Yeah, no, I, I mean, I think like McBride, it's just, it's just every, it's, it would have been a fantasy breaking season if he would have just had six, seven touchdown catches this year. So yeah, maybe it happens. We keep saying maybe it happens as the fantasy football playoffs. This also seems like a game where Kyler Murray's due for a big bounceback game. You know, that Seattle game, not so good. But New England is a get right potential opportunity for Arizona.

And maybe you're right. This is a Trey McBride gets two touchdown grabs. Everybody goes nuts. Trey McBride managers are excited. Scott, give everybody. everybody won bold prediction for week 15 of the fantasy football playoffs. Oh. I'll give you mine first.

Okay. I'll give you mine first. I'll give you a little time to prepare. Chuba Hubbard, 30 point week. This is the levy breaks for Dallas week. Dallas is on a short week coming off of that loss to Cincinnati. Chuba Hubbard is going to go nuts. 30 points scored two rushing touchdowns.

And the Dave Canales led Carolina Panthers beat Dallas by 10 or more. You know, that's a really good one. I'm just going to copy that one. I do everything report is a look back piece. Look forward. DJ Moore, I guess, maybe going nuclear this week would be another one. But yeah, I get started on my look forward research. Yeah.

If you want Scott's look ahead stuff, make sure you're watching his DFS content. He'll give you plenty of predictions with that. Scott, anything else coming up for you? No, no, just the DFS stuff. What about you? Just grinding through. getting ready for the fantasy football playoffs. My dynasty article will drop over at Fantasy Points,

and we're going to be bringing you shows like this every single week right here at School of Scott. Make sure you subscribe to the podcast, and if you're watching this on YouTube, subscribe to the channel. We'll see you soon.