Fantasy Football Daily - 2025 Fantasy: 10 Mind-Blowing Stats & Bold Analytical Insights for the Rest of the Season

Episode Date: September 24, 2025

Use code SCOREMORE10 at checkout for 10% OFF any subscription. Dominate your league. Win more bets. Level up your game The 2025 fantasy football season is heating up, and we’re breaking down the Top 10 mind-blowing stats and analytical insights you need right now to gain an edge. From rookie breakouts to surprising veterans, the Fantasy Football Daily crew dives deep into the numbers shaping the rest of your season. 🚨 Featured Players & Insights: Quinshon Judkins: 100% goal-line snaps, elite yards after contact (only Henry, Taylor, Cook better) Tetairoa McMillan (T-Mac): Emerging as a must-watch WR. Jaylen Warren: Career-high usage with a 23.9 XFP game and brutal TD vultures. Omarion Hampton: Workhorse back with 88% snap share and rising target usage. Chris Olave: WR1 volume and efficiency trends. Alvin Kamara: Historic decline in target share—what it means for his ROS outlook. Bhayshul Tuten, Darnell Mooney, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN): Sneaky ROS impact players. Plus bold predictions, advanced metrics (MTF/attempt, XFP, yards after contact), and strategy tips to outsmart your league. 👉 Don’t miss these game-changing insights—subscribe for more Fantasy Football Daily episodes packed with analytics, bold calls, and winning advice! Where to find us: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/⁠⁠JaGibbs_23 Http://twitter.com/RyanJ_Heath Join the Discord here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Podcast Transcription Here: https://podsqueeze.com/embedded/transcript/SdGhJeB5okS4zBy9SRYw8j Fantasy Points Website - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ NEW! Data Suite - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://data.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ #FantasyFootball #2025Rankings #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We're talking mind-blowing fantasy football statistical and analytical takeaways. Going to the mattresses here on Fantasy Football Daily, I have got two of these smartest people in fantasy football. Jacob Gibbs and Ryan Heath joining me today. We're going to unpack some of Jacob and Ryan's favorite statistical and analytical takeaways. We're heading into week four. We're starting to have more data. We're starting to have a larger sample size of what.

what teams are, what players are, situations we can count on, and some situations we should be panicking about. This is a really, really fun one, one that we've been planning for several weeks now. Let's go ahead and get this one started right off the top. Ryan, is Quinn Sean Judkins a potential league winner at the running back position? Unbelievable performance. We saw Jemir Gibbs and David Montgomery completely shut down by the Green Bay

Packers in week one. Jacori Kroski Merritt and Austin Eckler completely shut down in week two. And Quinn Sean Judkins just goes wild in week three. Cleveland gets the win, but the story is Judkins. And Ryan, it's wild with Judkins because Quinn Sean Judkins, there are fantasy managers holding Judkins bags in like the 12th round, the 13th round. He fell during that that fear-induced period of time where we thought maybe he wouldn't play. So Judkins right now looks like a potential league winner to me. What do the numbers tell you? Yeah, I don't know if I'm quite at league winner yet,

but it's certainly going that direction, especially, yeah, relative to that very late round ADP that you were able to get him at for a lot of the offseason. So for perspective here, Judkins did not practice with the Browns until exactly 10 days before this week three game. And what we saw is they just fed him as, as a total workhorse on the early downs. 18 of the backfields 19 carries 100% of the snaps inside the 10 yard line,

ended up with over 18 expected fantasy points on the day. That's a number that only three running backs are averaging more than this season. So, yeah, we really saw highest end workforce usage. The reason I don't say Belkow is because we are still seeing Jerome Ford kind of playing this third down role and in games where the Browns are not just in a neutral game script or a positive game script. I don't think Judkins is really going to be playing enough to be giving you those every week like top 12 scores or anything like that. But I mean, he looks amazing. It's hard to argue that he looks great. Sixth best in mistackles force for attempt this year. Fourth best in

yards after contact per attempt behind only Derek Henry, Jonathan Taylor. and James Cook. So, yeah, I'm ranking Judkins as a top 18 running back for the rest of the season. You would really need the Brown's defense to kind of continue stepping up and keeping all of these games, like, very gross and very close. That is not really what Vegas expects in the look at headlines this morning. But, yeah, there are definitely scenarios where Judkins kind of gets into that top 14, fringe top 12 range if he keeps up the efficiency.

and everything continues to go as well as possible for the Cleveland Browns. But yeah, just saying that kind of makes me like, okay, we need to hedge a little bit more. Top 18 is where I'm at. Jacob, you talked about this with Judkins. It was your tweet where you talked about the yards after contact. And when it comes to Judkins, like, we have all these question marks about the Browns. But I think that we'll start seeing a few over the next few weeks, 25 touch Quinshan Judkins' weeks.

For better or for worse, I think they're committed to ramping him up. We saw it in that game that they were completely annihilated by Baltimore, and they seem to have forced-fed Judkins' touches in that one. Are you sort of with Ryan that you're going to have him as like a mid-level RB2? Talk about your Judkins' takeaways as well. Yeah, so they really scaled his roll up from his first game to his second game. I thought it was encouraging that in his first game, he started and they were giving it to him a lot but he ended up with like a 30% snap rate or whatever

in week two or week three his second week the snap rate was only like 59% or something which is a big improvement but not where you want to see it for running back but to Ryan's point almost all the touches were going to him when it was like all things equal we got a lot of like two minute drill kind of situations in this game which kind of affected the overall snap rate numbers he had a 75% snap rate across the first three drives so it was like really all him So you're looking at basically an early down running back only for now. And it's an offense that, you know, if it does go away from Flacco, then we would be nervous, you know, of what it might look like.

But yeah, to your point about yards after contact, he has been so good on his own that it makes sense that it'll probably become the offensive engine at some point. So I think low-end RB2 is about right. You're going to have some weeks where he's frustrating, you know, because he's a running back on the Browns. But he's done everything he can. and this is an unbelievably encouraging start. Yeah, we're very, very interested in Quinshon Judkins.

He's a player that's going to significantly rise up the dynasty rankings, I'm sure on fantasy points and on many other sites. Jacob, your first takeaway is on a player that Ryan and I were all over this entire offseason, many at fantasy points, Brett Whitefield, Scott Barrett. We were all sort of head over heels with. with Tedaroa McMillan. What are the numbers telling you through three weeks? He's had at least eight targets in every single game now.

Mm-hmm. Yeah, a lot of people think that I only care about rookies, and I'm not beating those allegations today. I'm obsessed with T-Mack. He's looked so, so good. We saw the first three target rate push up to 40% in week three, which is a high number for anybody, any wide receiver one, that's a high number, but especially a rookie.

And I think this is what we can expect. So I do a podcast. It's called Beyond the Box Score. And like last week, we dove into all of the awesome stuff that we got from Fantasy Points data looking at the types of routes that these players are running. And TMAX stood out to me as one of the most unusually high vertically breaking route rates of any receiver, any wide receiver won. I thought he was going to have a ton of horizontally breaking routes. That's something Ryan and I had speculated on going into the year was that Dave Canales,

his wide receiver one gets a lot of these H break routes. I think that's where we're going to settle in. But these first couple of weeks, the Panthers were chasing points a lot. We saw here in a more, it wasn't exactly neutral, but like not playing from way behind game in week three. This is, I think, more representative of what we're going to get. The fantasy points haven't come yet. And so I think he's like one of the clearest buys. And we have a lot.

We have a lot of buys, especially a receiver. But to me, his name is at the very top because he's winning all over the place. He's winning with vertical separation. He's doing like the few questions that we had. Could he win down the field as a vertical separator? He's checking those boxes. And we know that he can crush on horse's island breaking routes. We know he can win to the catch point.

We know he can win after the catch. So really the only concerns are like offensive environment. But like that's the same thing for a lot of these receivers. That's the same thing for Brian Thomas Jr. And to me, he looks like close to as good of a player as Brian Thomas Tuna. That's a really ridiculous thing to say after just three weeks. But like the separation scores back it up, my eyes back it up. He's winning out there in a lot of different ways.

So I'm extremely excited about McMillan. Yeah. And Ryan, we love when the numbers match up with guys that just completely pass the eye test. And every single week, McMillan does something just ridiculous. Week one and week two, it was a couple of like near completions. that were in completions where you're like, what is this guy doing? He catches nearly everything. He's able to high point the ball.

He's got the ideal size. Your takeaways from McMillan early this season. Yeah, no, honestly, not a whole lot to add other than that, yeah, all of the numbers are great. We see the target shares coming up. He's at 15.7 expected fantasy points per game, which is 15th at the position. Yeah, the positive regression is definitely, definitely coming here. Totally agree with Jacob that he is a clear. by and I kind of do love the Brian Thomas Jr.

comparison because every film guy I talked to this season has had basically only bad things to say about how BTJ has been playing, shying away from contact, not wanting to go over the middle. But it's the complete opposite with T-MAC. Every single film guy you talk to is like, yeah, he's amazing. He looks so good. I'm so excited for him. I don't think it's even crazy to just rank McMillan straight up.

ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. for the rest of the season. Based on both the, as Jacob mentioned, like the offensive environment overall concerns being kind of similar for both of them. And yeah, the fact that McMillan just looks better, has the target chairs to back it up, has all the peripherals to back it up, at least to the same extent Thomas Jr. does.

So, yeah, I absolutely am in love with this take that T-MAC is like the clear as by low. Film bros, me and. Ryan Heath. He just looks better. He looks better. Noted, noted film bros. And follow-up question for Ryan, who's the bigger ageist? You or Jacob, which one of you dislikes age in fantasy football more? You or Jacob Gibbs? I don't know. It might be Jacob, honestly. I feel like I psyched myself out of fading all the old guys this year when there were some older guys. I probably should have been fading harder. So I don't know. I think I overreacted to myself overreacting to age stuff in 20.

24. Easy to do. There you go. And Ryan becomes a guy who is embracing the older players. And then lo and behold, James Connor goes down, season ending injury. Mike Evans headed to the IR. So there you go, Ryan. Let's keep this one going with Tetaroa McMillan discussion.

Initial lean here, guys. Not on the show sheet. This is off the cuff. Who would you rather roster in Dynasty? BTJ or Tetaroa McMillan, Jacob. B.J. Ryan. I think I might be at Tett McMillan now.

I was not there a week ago, but another week of basically the same trends with both of them is, I think I'll narrowly take Team Mac now, even in Dynasty. It's totally fair, but like, man, the top of BTJ's outcome is I'm just the best freaking player in football. That's a very, very good point. Someone had sort of a sobering walk me off of the cliff type comment that, Maybe this is just BTJ's path every single year that he waits to ramp up until like week five. And I, you know, there's take a lot of different contexts this year. The expectation is totally different. But that one sort of woke me up and I'm like, okay, thank you for saying that.

That makes me feel a little bit better than seeing him do absolutely nothing with all of these targets and us questioning everything. Shane Waldron, all that craziness. Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we're talking about more mind blowing. statistics and analytical takeaways from two of the best in the business right here on Fantasy Football Daily. All right, welcome back. Jacob, you mentioned the podcast. Talk about it a little bit more.

Yeah, beyond the box score, me and Dan Schneier putting it together. We also have Adam Azer hosts on Mondays. We recap everything that we just saw from the week before we go through four big topics picked by our audience. Love to keep it interactive. We have a live chat. You can always come hang out with us there, ask questions. Ryan is on every Thursday. We do a show called Mastering Matchups.

This is our first year doing it. We haven't really got into the weeds as much as we're excited to do with the matchup data because we got a lot of new stuff coming in. So we're familiarizing ourselves with these new coordinators and everything. But you guys know, Ryan, all the good stuff that goes into his matchup calling at the end of the week. I'm looking at coverage types, blitzes, pressure rates, all this stuff, single high safety, all that. And trying to speculate on, you know, matchups that you can exploit week to week.

And then in the middle of the week, it's going to be me and Dan just doing our thing. We're giving you trade targets, rest of season look. This week we're going to do an entire episode dedicated to what's happening up front with offensive lines, runs schemes, how we're seeing different coordinators approach the battle up front, which offensive lines are winning and losing, how that's affecting some of these running backs that are struggling and some of these passing games that haven't been able to really find the rhythm. So I think that'll be a really cool show.

So we try to stay topical and keep you updated with everything you need to. now. Yeah, highly recommend everything Jacob is doing. You've been one of the more fun guests we've had this offseason. Shout out to the rest of my guess. But Jacob, he's just a lot of fun as a guest. Ryan, you are sort of the fantasy points Wunderkind. You're the one who is dropping all the great statistical takeaways. You're crushing it. What is a week in the life of Ryan Heath look like content-wise for the fantasy football daily audience? Yeah. So every Sunday night, I drop a massive usage review thread on Twitter at Ryan J underscore Heath that you can check out like during Sunday night football. I try to be one of the first to do like a full usage review thread.

Monday mornings, five stats to know, free article, just going over some of the biggest trends that I had noticed in the previous weekend of games. The Everything Report drops Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night. That's co-written with myself and Scott Barrett. It's called that for a reason. We cover literally everything you could possibly need to know from a data perspective going forward for your fantasy teams. And then Friday mornings, advanced matchups drops, as Jacob was alluding to a little bit, kind of digging very deep into the data suite with the coverage shells with different matchup indicators that you can use to get an edge in your DFS lineups or in your prop betting for the following week. So, yeah, a lot of content, all of it over on fantasy points.com. Yeah, and if you want to subscribe to all of Ryan's content, as well as my written content, as well as Scott Barrett's written content, and all of the incredible tools and articles that we have accessible over at Fantasy Points, use the code Theo and get 15% off any Fantasy Points package, including Fantasy Points data, where Jacob and Ryan are pulling a ton of their awesome statistical takeaways from today's.

episode. Ryan, embracing the ambiguous backfields has looked like a very sharp thing for fantasy managers to have done this past off season. You've had early season wins from Travis Etyn. We are banking on a Bachel Tootin breakout at some point very soon. We're going to talk about him a little later in the show. Javante Williams has paid off very big at his ADP early on in the year. There's been a few other scenarios where the ambiguous backfields have paid off. But one of the biggest payoffs was a player sort of under the radar, but one that you were really pounding the table for on multiple shows that we did together this offseason. A big credit to you, you were sort of all over Jalen Warren this off season.

It's very early on. But right now Jalen Warren looks like he's really paying off. And he's getting positive quotes from Aaron Rogers about him, which is the key to fantasy success for any Pittsburgh Steeler is being in Roger's Good Graces. So Ryan, talk about it with Jill and Warren. What are the numbers telling you? What is your enthusiasm level? And is your enthusiasm level higher now than it was in August?

Yeah, it's kind of fun. This is like the one veteran running back that I get to victory lap in September and everybody else. Not that old. Not that old. Not saying it's that old or anything. But yeah, like this is what we do in September. We victory lap the usage for all.

the veteran running backs. And Warren was like my veteran running back that I was in on for basically this reason. So yeah, I'm excited about this. In week three, after the Aaron Rogers quotes from last week that were basically, we need to get Warren more involved. We need to get him more involved in the passing game. Steelers list in Aaron Rogers. Warren up at an 82% backfield carry share, 26% target share, nearly 24 expected fantasy

points in week three. All of those were career highs for Jalen Warren. Like fantasy managers have been screaming to get Warren more involved, get him in a bell cow role. He's better than Najee Harris for literally years. And now that Warren in a bell cow role is actually happening, I feel like there is not nearly enough excitement about this. This is what all of you have been asking for forever.

And he wasn't like especially efficient on the ground, but still looked very good to my eyes for seven mistackles. this week, second most this week behind only Jonathan Taylor, tied for the team lead in receiving yards. Basically, the only complaint is that we got an Arthur Smith special touchdown vulture on the first drive where Warren had basically driven the Steelers down the entire length of the field. He got the first two cracks at the goal line on first and second down, didn't quite get in. There's a end zone DPI penalty on third down that gives the Steelers a new six.

and Kenny Gainwell instantly subs onto the field and runs like an actual goal line play to the outside where he just walks in for the touchdown. Very tilting, but literally aside from that one play, Gainwell had almost no impact on the game here. It was just Jalen Warren as the Steelers Bell Cow. I'm very excited about this for a couple of reasons. Number one, Caleb Johnson is so far and so deep in the doghouse after his play on special teams over the last couple of weeks that I would not be surprised if Caleb Johnson just never has a significant role at any point in his rookie season. Warren is very locked in seemingly to

this passing down role now, which is the most important part of that you can have for a fantasy running back. So I actually like Warren rest of season over some of these other veteran running backs we've seen these early kind of usage breakouts for. I would rather have Warren than Giovante Williams going forward, especially with how we need to downgrade this Cowboys offense efficiency-wise, especially with C.D. Lamb on the shelf with a high ankle sprain for probably the next few weeks. I would take Warren over a Travis E.T.N. just because he doesn't have a patient tooth in breathing down his neck. Similar thoughts with like J.K. Dobbins. All of these like kind of volume vet veteran guys, Warren is currently my favorite of all of them. Yeah, I love that takeaway. The only one I would sort of try to argue with you about is Dobbins, but I'm just sort of a Dobbins believer there. But yeah, you were absolutely right when it comes to Warren.

And I think that the underneath passing down work where Warren sort of as the intermediate target for Aaron Rogers, there's really not a whole lot of target earners on this offense. So I think I'm with you, Ryan. You were all over this one in the off season. You deserve a ton of credit for it right now. Jacob, anything to add on Jalen Warren? Jeline Warren is my guy. I love it. Everything Ryan brought up is astute, and that's basically exactly where I'm at. He's very, very good. He avoids tackles.

He creates yards after their contact. He's running back two in yards per outrun since entering the NFL behind only Christian McCaffrey. Like, he's a very, very good player. And they're loading him up, career high, 23 touches, never had more than 18 touches in a game. Let's go. Let's do it. And we'll stay at the running back position. Jacob, on Sunday, this was the first week that we saw the Washington backfield without Austin Echler.

We had anticipated that we would learn a lot as fantasy managers. Jacori Krusky Merritt shows up to the stadium in one of the dopest Sean Taylor throwback jerseys. Anyone's ever rocked. I expected a considerable bit more volume for him. We also saw Jeremy McNichols have a nasty touchdown. We saw Chris Rodriguez lead the backfield with 11 carries, gets fewer than 40 yards with them. What's your takeaway with Jacori-Kroski-Mert? Is this a ramp-up period?

Is this a, like, what's your enthusiasm level? This is a backfield that I think is making people pull their hair out, trying to figure out what to do. Do they play a Washington back? Is this one to avoid? Should you be buying low on Krowski-merit in redraft leagues? Like, where are you at on how to play this situation? I'm going to put my enthusiasm level at a 10 out of 10. And this is going to sound silly because we're right here right now.

And we didn't like that the very first thing we saw on our screens this Sunday was Chris Rodriguez. We did not like that. Everybody got excited for Bill Kroski Merritt. And in the same way that I'm having people tell me like, I need these points from Team Mac. Like they're mad about what is happening with Tedro McMillan. When I tell them that he's awesome out there, that's where we're at with Kroski Merritt, who was the last running back drafted and like has had a. bit of a slow ease in, which is basically what you see with every single rookie running back,

they're building the role out week by week. The fact that he's playing so well is encouraging. The fact that his offense is playing so well is encouraging. The offense just put up 41, and a lot of that was due to special teams and stuff like that, but put points on the board, move the ball with Marcus Marriota quarterback. And the run game is working exceptionally well, which is what we saw last year too. And Croski Merritt, I mean, shout out Theo, like we were talking about this this summer. Like this guy was brought in to fit this run game. He's exactly what Cliff Kingsbury likes, the inside zone stuff, all this stuff out of shotgun.

He's phenomenal at operating that because his start stoppability is unreal. He's extremely, extremely quick with the acceleration in and out of his cuts. And we're seeing that result in him navigating the middle extremely well. He's gaining positive yards at one of the highest rates of any running back. He's avoiding tackles. He's creating yards after contact. That's what he does. He's running back one in the NFL in points per touch, fantasy points per touch.

He's faced the highest percentage of his runs. He's faced stack boxes on in the NFL. He's averaging 5.7 yards per carry, even with stack boxes, 41% of the time. Running back seven yards after contact per attempt out of 38 qualifiers. 64% of his runs. This is all per the fantasy point status suite. 64% of his runs have gained three or more yards. That's running back 8.

46% of his runs have gained five or more yards. running back two behind only Jordan Mason. So the run game is cooking and he is cooking. McNacles looked great. You know, that was an awesome run. And Chris Rodriguez looked great too. But like that guy was inactive to start the year because they believe in Bill. They traded away the running back.

They immediately had this guy in as a seventh round rookie. I think the role is only going to continue to grow. And the fact that they had him out there doing past game stuff at the beginning of the game, they started Rodriguez. but in the first half, their snap rates were almost identical. People didn't realize it because Rodriguez was one getting all the touches. So what the hell was Bill doing? If he was out there playing snaps but not getting the ball,

they were having him work on other stuff, pass protection, running routes, stuff like that, getting his timing down. They're in his screen to him. To me, this is all extremely encouraging because it means we could see an expanded version of this roll down the stretch. Yeah, I love your enthusiasm level here. And maybe the whole thesis with Chakrosky Merit

should have been that this is more of a player that ramps up in the second half of the season. You bring up the fact that it was a player that really didn't play last year at all. And the ramp up period could be taking a little bit longer. We saw the big week one. Just quick follow up. You mentioned the passing game briefly. Do you think that we start seeing when Jaden Daniels returns just a few opportunistic

targets for Jacori-Kroski-Marrett? Can he be an opportunistic pass catcher? not necessarily a player that has schemed up usage in the passing game, but a guy who can give us maybe two or three catches a game. I think so. The thing is, like, there was none of that in college. Receiving metrics were awful, and people will point to that. But we see sometimes that that doesn't really matter.

That does change sometimes. Everything I saw on film from him in college in the preseason and so far is that he's a very confident and calm player. A lot of these rookies come in and kind of overrun things, drop the ball. they're like, it seems like the game's moving too fast for them. It seems like it's already slowed down for him. And I would think that like if he gets those opportunities, he will be fine. Ryan, a player that Kroski Merritt was one that on School of Scott,

we were sort of talking about for a long, long time, fantasy football daily dynasty life. We were packing bags with him in round 18, round five of rookie drafts in dynasty. But a player that I was pounding the table for to draft inside of round four in redraft and taking at the 102 behind Ashton Genti in Dynasty draft was Omarian Hampton. Really, really rough start for me in Weeks 1 and Week 2. Looks like we finally have the breakout performance in Week 3.

And that is combined with now a big injury to Najee Harris. What are the numbers telling you about Omar and Hampton? Your enthusiasm level for him moving forward coming off of this big week three. And I will add also, this was the first week. week we saw him used in the passing game, ends up with, I believe, six receptions in a huge win over Denver. Yeah, so we'll start with that. The biggest point to me there is the change in usage in the passing game.

We had seen the chargers throw to their back fuel that near NFL low rates in weeks one and two. And the targets were being relatively split between Hampton and Najee Harris. So Hampton in week three had a 12.8% target share. versus just 6.6% in weeks one and two. That was where I thought he looked best and the most smooth was as a pass catcher, which makes sense that is kind of was one of like the better things about his prospect profile is that he could do it all.

He could be a three down back. You could target him in the passing game. He could be a productive player that way. So moving forward, that definitely helps his outlook for me a lot, assuming the chargers will continue to let him play on passing downs, give him those occasional checkdowns, let him create that way. That stuff's really great.

Before the Najee Harris injury, him and Hampton were in basically a perfectly even 50-50 split. After the Harris injury, Hampton just immediately went right back up to the role that he had through the first seven quarters of the season, which is like an 88% snap share, every single backfield touch. Still not like particularly efficient as a runner. and I know Brett Whitefield is still not really that impressed with him as a runner. I know everybody says he lacks like a lot of the lateral agility that you would want to see from like a highest end running back. But I think all of that is very unlikely to matter in fantasy football.

When he is getting essentially every single touch, the Chargers have seen or have shown zero interest in involving Hassan Haskins or Kamani Vidal on the practice. squad at all this year. I think that probably continues. I think Hampton probably continues to settle in. And there's also a possibility that the chargers aren't so aggressively pass heavy by the end of the year and that in hindsight that becomes like an, oh yeah, like it was them kind of leaning and relying on a rookie running back that is still kind of catching up to NFL speed.

Of course, they were so pass heavy. They could become a little bit more balanced as the season goes on. So, yeah, I'm very bullish on Hampton. overall just because of how amazing this role should continue to be. I am going to rank him above Ashton Genti for the rest of the season, who saw a step back in his workload and his usage in week three. Yeah, Hampton is just kind of on the RB1, RB2 borderline to me for the rest of the season. And yeah, I don't think that that's an overreaction at all.

Are we going to talk about Cam Scatibu today? Would we? Yeah, let's absolutely add. some Cam Scataboo. But before we do Cam Scatabu, Jacob, just do you, are you in line with Ryan on your level of enthusiasm for Hampton? Are you sort of above Ryan here, below him, or right in line with your rest of season outlook for, for Omarian Hampton? Right in line. I was nervous about this Chargers offense a little bit when we got the Rashan Slater injury, but everything has looked good since then. They faced some, you know, they've just run the gauntlet here in the

FFC West, passed the tough test here against the Broncos. Love to see the run game get going. Definitely. Like, wheels up for Hampton in his role. I think he's clearly ahead of Gentie. The reason I brought up Scataboo is because today I pose the question to my beyond the box score co-hosts, Scatibu or Genti? You've got two running backs for bad teams that can create on their own, but their line's

not doing much for them. And one of them catches passes and one of them doesn't. It's a disgusting. question to have to ponder if you have Ashton Genti exposure here. But yeah, I mean, Cam Scataboo is like cult hero status right now. The Giants are not only passing the ball to Scataboo. They're running smoke for him and lining him up at wide receiver. It's like, it's like Scott Barrett became the offensive coordinator on a couple of these play designs. So I don't even want to answer that question because it makes me too upset. But Ryan,

And take away that Jacob Gibbs' galaxy brain question. Yeah, I love how you posed it because I think you're exactly right in that Scataboo's role is probably just going to be better, especially for the next month or so or however long it takes for Tyrone Tracy to come back and probably even beyond then, if we're being honest. But I don't think I can rank Scataboo ahead of Genentee rest of season just because of the conviction that we should have. on Ginty's overall talent and the upside he has as a player. He can earn passing down snaps as the season goes on. In fact, I expect that to happen eventually. So, yeah, I've got to take GNT over and rest of the season.

But in terms of who would I rather start in week four, I think scatibu is probably the answer. Next month, it's probably scatibou. It's crazy to even think about that one. I think it's more of a pro scatibou argument than necessarily a negative. Genti argument, but I do agree. I think that the whole week four could be a Genty week. Vegas has got to answer some questions internally. This is really bad. This was, they go from winning in week one to getting really exposed in week two and week three. Now they play the Chicago Bears in week four. So a little bit softer defense for Genty to go against. We've heard Pete Carroll

sort of give some positive coach speak to Gentie. We're just not seeing it with the usage. It's weird, guys. It's very, very weird. But yeah, Cam Scadaboo, if you drafted him, you're feeling just great about things right now. The usage is exactly what you want to see. It's one of the things that's consistently working for the Giants against the Chiefs. Really the only thing that was working was Cam Scadaboo.

So I think we're going to see more of that. We're going to take a quick break. When we come back, Jacob is going to take a quick break. talk about a high target earning wide receiver that's a little bit under the radar right now. Welcome back, Fantasy Football Daily. Jacob, talk about Chris Ilave. We see Kellan Moore taking over this year as head coach in New Orleans. The Saints are not a good team, but a couple of great things are coming together usage

wise. We've seen Joanne Johnson take over this really, really high level, tight end role. But Chris Alave is a monster target earner through three weeks of play. Where are you out on him and his rest of the season outlook? Yeah, so Alave just like stays undervalued for whatever reason. But he went out there is like tremendously productive on a per route basis. And that's what we're seeing again here, whereas target per route run rate is through the roof. And the efficiency hasn't quite caught up.

And maybe it just will be an issue, you know, with Spencer Radler and this version of the office, maybe just won't be as good as what we have with Derek Carr, who, you know, fantasy point status would show in a lot of is probably underrated as well. But what we have seen from Alavi in the past is that he is, no matter what the circumstance is somebody who's giving you over two yards per run. And so to me, to see him in this role where it's elevated beyond what we've seen ever before

with all the usage-based stuff, it makes sense that the yardage efficiency might catch up to what we've seen in the past. I mean, just even like in week two, Spencer Rattler just missed them, just barely missed them. Absolutely nasty route by Alave. to get a target in the end zone, just barely miss them.

If he connects on that, then his yard per route run rate is above two. You know what I mean? Like, it's just, it's been a weirdly inefficient start. But all of the route concepts that we've seen there, I've really liked, including all the pre-snap motion stuff. So we saw Kellynne Moore make Keenan Allen the highest fantasy score ever on pre-snap motion routes during the time we have that data available just on those routes. and then Cidie Lamb, the year before that, he took his spot.

Cid Lam was the previous holder for most fantasy points on pre-snap motion routes. We're now seeing this go to a lave, 25 routes. As the pre-snap motion player, no one else has more than 20 in the NFL. He has eight targets as the pre-snap motion player. Only Debo Samuel has more. He's also getting end-zone targets. He had two end-zone targets in week three. He has an end-zone target in every game, but no touchdowns to show for it.

So I'm looking at it and it's like, man, everything you could possibly ask for is there from a role perspective. And the state's offense isn't good, but it's better than we thought it would be. It's actually like in terms of catchable air yards, like it's actually been pretty functional and they're playing extremely fast. So there's a lot of plays overall. And Alave's perceived value hasn't changed at all. Like he's basically exactly where he was coming into the season, which I didn't feel was appropriate. I thought that was way too low. But we now have confirmation of the offense being better than we thought it could be,

playing at the extreme tempo that we thought it might, and Alave being this alpha type of wide receiver one. So to me is like one of the clearest buys. I know you guys are probably sick of hearing this every single year with Chris Alave, but like on paper, this looks great right now. Yeah, 37 targets through three weeks played. Yesterday, or excuse me, Sunday we saw a season high and points scored. Ryan, where are you at on this one when it comes to Alave and your initial reaction to the

Kellyn Moore offense through three games played? Yeah, I mean, he leads all wide receivers and expected fantasy points per game. The Kell and Moore offense is as fast-paced and as awesome as it's always been. This was something that I harped on a lot during the offseason, which is that Kellyn Moore pretty much makes life so much better and easier for all of his wide receivers. and consequently makes it harder for his running backs, at least in the receiving game, just because he really loves to scheme up and design

all of these targets for his receivers, use them in motion like Jacob's been talking about. And that's just like an efficiency hack, an efficiency cheat code. It's a volume hack and cheat code when you combine it with his pace of play. So, yeah, I would agree that Olavé is a buy. He looks like in Dynasty, especially,

I'm just thinking back to like you could get him for like a late first or like three seconds like even cheaper this off season like he was dead to people in dynasty this off season. If I can buy it even like 120% of those prices, I would be doing that right now in that format. So yeah, Olavis looking great. And it does lead into the next player I want to talk about a little bit though. Yeah. Last week I sent a T.J. Hawkinson for. Chris Ilave deal and I got a little bit on top of Alave like a third or fourth in an FFPC Dynasty

League. So of course, tight end premium. But it's the targets I'm chasing. And it's sort of a moneyball approach to Alave for dynasty managers because you're getting the concussion discount where the air yards have been always been there. The target share has always been there. He has first round pedigree. And we used to have to pay so, so much for him. Now he's sort of cheap. And this is by far the most targets he's ever earned on a three-week period at any point in his career. So I would try to go and kick the tires and pick up some Chris Olive. If Jacob is correct, he's going to cost a lot more in a few weeks. But Ryan, you prefaced this one.

I talked about the positivity surrounding Joanne Johnson's early usage. Jacob talked about Chris Alave. It's been sort of a okay, 20 targets for Rashid Shaheed. but you have some concerns about Alvin Kamara. I do, yeah. So we've got three games now in 2025. And Camara has been below a 5% target share in two out of three. And that's really insane because we basically have never seen Alvin Kamara be this lightly targeted in his career.

From all of 2021 through 2024, back as far as the fantasy point. data repository goes. I could only find one single game below a 5% target share for Camara in a four-year period. Last year, he was not below a 12% target share in any single game when you are kind of getting him as this. He led all running backs and expected fantasy points last year. The usage is night and day in the passing game.

And that is what Camara needs when you're on the Saints. when they're always trailing, running a bunch of plays in the hurry up. Like, if you're not in, like, heavily involved in the passing game, then what is the point of you in fantasy? You're not going to be getting these positive game scripts with Camara very often. He's not going to score very many touchdowns. So, yeah, it's just really, really rough. And this is something that was somewhat foreseeable before the season.

Cameras, a lot of those expected fantasy points were on all of those running back screens that Clint Kubiak loved to spam. As we just alluded to, Kellen Moore is kind of the opposite. 14 design targets for Olave and Shaheed through three weeks, just one for Alvin Kamara. Yeah, this is just not how

Kellan Moore runs his offenses. Honestly, it's probably smart. I would rather be giving like design touches to Olave and Shahid than an old and dusty Alvin Kamara. I think that makes sense in terms of their offense as well. So yeah, is not even like a top 24 running back to me for the rest of the season, I would be selling in redraft.

I would be getting absolutely any like starting lineup worthy piece for him that you can. Or if you don't need him, I would be desperately trying to get like the RJ Harvey's of the world where they're, these are guys that just haven't scored fantasy points yet, but that we expect to break out as the season goes on. I would take Bachel Tootin over Alvin Camara for the rest of the season. All day long, Bachel Tutin. Let's go.

Professional segue from Ryan Heath, because we're going to talk about Basial Tutin soon, but do you share Ryan's apprehension about the role and outlook for Alvin Kamara moving forward, Jacob? Yeah, I didn't draft any, and I haven't for a while, and sometimes that burns me, but it's just like I'm always nervous that if the, you know, running back won an XFP per game stuff like falls off at all, then what are we left with? And we're kind of finding out it looks like. It's not good.

Nothing's good there. I completely agree with you. It's so weird to see Kamara with these sort of stat lines where he has like 18 carries, but then not a whole lot of catches. It's sort of why? Why wouldn't we even mix in a little bit more Kendra Miller if that's the way we're going to sort of use him? It seems like it's just a very bad fit.

The one bailout would be if the season sort of unravels for New Orleans, could we see Alvin Kamara traded to another team? team. That's sort of the one little bailout for Kamara managers where I think there'd be a market for him because there's teams that are, there's a number of teams that are sort of running back needy and his skill set sort of translates to in a short period of time, can he help push my team into the playoffs or give me a chance to win a playoff game? I think there's going to be some coaches that might see him like that. You've got to think Kamara is going to be wide open to a deal if this season unravels for New Orleans.

But we talked about it like a million times. We sort of had a couple of little references to it. We knew we were going to talk Bachel Tutin here. Jacob, time for you to shine. What are the numbers telling you about Bachel Tutin? What is your outlook for him for the rest of the season? To the moon. It's Tudin time.

18% snap rate. Pretty excited about that. No, not so much. I mean, you know, we're getting there. We're getting there for sure. I mean, the tank Bigsby trade was absolutely to get Basial Tutin more touches. I'm convinced on that one. And Tutin, like we talk about looking the part, Tutin looks awesome.

Oh, yeah. The week two touchdown, then we saw the short touchdown in week three. It just seems like it's a ticking time bomb to Tutin having a breakout game. And his breakout game might look like Devon A-chan rookie year type breakout. game. Yeah, we've yet to even see the explosive plays from Toot. And what we've seen is him just consistently churning out yards after contact. I bring up the snap rate just a bit in jest. And also, so I think it might have been impacted by a shoulder injury. But also, I just want to bring it up like kind of like a corollary with what we've been talking about with like

to Corey Kroski-Maron and stuff like that where it's like, we're very excited and for good reason. But like, let's not get out of control here where we're like, I need to start him. Like, I need something here. like, do I start him? And then you're getting mad about it and stuff like that. Like it's probably going to continue to be a slow build. What I've been eyeing the whole time is week nine. I think they have a week eight by.

And yeah, we are seeing the snap rates pulled back a little bit for Travis Eton. I think it's going to be Tutin time eventually. And that is because he's been so good, including the preseason. So this is almost 40 touches as a pro, not a single negative play for Tutin. So Giovante Williams, for comparison, has. He's the only running back with over 70% of his runs gaining three or more yards this season among running backs that have more than 20 touches. Tudon is very close. He has 17 rushes and his rate is 82%.

So like Javante is the only one above 70%. Dune just consistently turning out yards after contact, making people miss. And then you see him get the goal line look. It wasn't like, you know, sometimes where a running back has a long run. This happened to E.T. And we had a long run. And then Tuton goes in, you know, and it gets some. get some work. They just they just put two n in for that play. They trusted him to have that goal

line look. And I think that's a testament to what he's done, which is consistently get these short yardage looks converted, make people miss behind the line of scrimmage. And so if we start getting the explosive plays as well, the offense has outside of two guys outside of Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, the offices work pretty well, you know, like they've been creating a lot of yards before contact. That's what a lot of ETN's looks have been. And so as I look at this like i'm pretty optimistic overall with leum cohen and what he's designing here and tutin just absolutely is passing the eye test and the analytical test as a player so it could be really really exciting when it hits yeah i mean there's a ton of frustration it's sort of like uh

there's two americas here there's the fantasy football america that's like all upset about brian thomas junior and then there's the duval jacksonville jaguar fans who are like hey guys we could be three and oh right now as a team so there's a ton of like enthusiasm with what Jacksonville's building what they're doing. But I think for them to take that next level over the second half of the season, it's going to have to be basal Tutin taking on a larger role. I mean, Tutin, we're really rooting for him. And sometimes you have to take a step back, Ryan, when you have bags packed of a guy in Dynasty, if you have exposure and redraft, you sometimes start rooting for him and you find reasons to make arguments for him. But when it comes to Tutin, I completely

agree with Jacob. I think that the big breakout games are coming. Where are you? you at on Tutin right now. I know you talked about him that you would trade Kamara for him, but sort of your outlook, what are the chances that we are incorrect on these ones? Like if you had to put a percent at it. Oh, man. If I had to put a percent on like Tutin just never takes over the leadback role at any point this season, I don't know. I think it's probably like a 45, 55-55 proposition to me where I would slightly lean toward him doing it at some point in the year. Like, don't forget, guys, the point with Tutin is that in every format, he was incredibly cheap because he was a day three running back. And over the season, there's a good chance we have seen Liam Cohen do this before, where if a later drafted player earns a larger role, he will just give it to him and unleash him.

So that's the bet with Tutin. You've got to still hold, still wait. It could definitely take a while. But yeah, I've been very, very encouraged by what we've seen through three weeks as well. Maybe it doesn't ultimately pop at the end of the year. Maybe ETN stays relatively efficient, continues playing pretty well. But yeah, like he's getting goal line touches, guys. He's getting like design screens and taking them in for touchdowns.

Like I'm just so overwhelmingly happy with everything we've seen. from him that even like if it doesn't ultimately end up hitting, I will consider myself like on the right side of history with Tudin when all is said and done. Yeah, it's it's about the friends that we made on the way when we're talking about Bachel Tutton, Ryan. But yeah, I'm with you. And he's a fantastic stash. And there's always a chance that the team could move off of Travis ETN. There's still a number of beat reporters sort of saying that this book might not be closed on this one because not only do they have a great deal of enthusiasm about basal tutin, but the coaching staff really, really likes LeQuint Allen.

So there's a chance we see ETN moved and then it would just be lift off for Tutin. There's a chance that we see just more of a 50-50 timeshare. Jacob, you mentioned the shoulder. Tutin was in a non-contact jersey for a lot of the lead up to week three. We could see a little bit more of a ramp up in usage heading into week four, week five, And this could just be a slow drip, but an exciting, exciting one. Let's take one more quick break and we come back. Jacob and Ryan are talking about two more wide receivers.

And then we're going to get Jacob and Ryan dropping bold predictions for the rest of the season. Really, really, really fun episodes so far, guys. All right, guys. Let's talk about it. Ryan, you have a takeaway on sort of an under the radar receiver. Talk to us about Darnell Mooney right now. Yeah. So to me, Mooney was like an interesting kind of late laterish round sleeper that you could draft pretty late heading into the season. Obviously the preseason injury and all of that kind of dampens that enthusiasm. But now I kind of wish I had Darnell Mooney on more benches than I actually do. Just because we have seen the role pretty much come right back to what we were hoping and dreaming. of here in week three. So he was inactive in week one, week two is first week back immediately

at a 19% target share, week three at a team high 26% target share. And even more notably, Drake London, while he consolidated 36% of the Falcons targets in week one, hasn't gone over a 20% target share in either of these games since Darnell Mooney has returned. And I don't know, like it makes me a little bit nervous. Now London has also been dealing with an injury of his own that we need to factor in and probably be patient, play the long game and hope to God that Michael Pennix doesn't look as rough as he did in week three.

But yeah, like all of last season, London was only like 50 or 100 yards ahead of Darnell Mooney, I believe at this season's end. Like these were very close target chairs through much of the year, really until the end of the season, when Panics came in over the last three games and Mooney missed some time, where we saw the huge alpha wide receiver one target shares for London. So really just my take here is I'm a lot less certain that London is like the clear alpha

wide receiver one that I sold him to be and that we all kind of thought he would be heading into this season. So my faith is just being shaken a little bit on the actual pecking order here with the Falcons. I don't think Darnell Mooney is a better NFL receipts. seever than London, but in terms of their fantasy outputs, I'm not actually sure that they'll be that different for the rest of the year. Jacob, anything to add on the Mooney situation and with regards to Drake London as well? I think I can make Ryan feel better.

Darno Moot is awesome and an important part of the offense, but I would, first off, I would be like pretty unprecedented for a player who occupies such a downfield-oriented role to be a significant target earner, and that's pretty much what we've always seen from him. And second, Drake London, like, is the predominant target hog, like point blank. At USC, he had the highest target per route run rate of any receiver since I have that data available of any season, dating back to 2017. I was like over 40%. And we've seen him across multiple different quarterbacks have that kind of target per

route run rate. To me, it's kind of like the Chris Alavi Rashahue, Rashid, Chahee thing where it's like, well, this guy's really good and really fun. Like any, and sometimes he even looks like he's like overtaking Alabe, but it's like, man, we have a long track record of this guy, this top 10 pick like Alavi in London were. I think maybe Alavi was 11 or something being elite, like absolutely like alpha dog status. To me, the only concern with London, I guess two. One is that they're not playing quite as fast as I would have liked.

And two is that Pinnock has not played well. His accuracy notes are at the very. bottom of the league through three weeks. So hopefully that sorts itself out. I think if he's healthy, I don't have any concerns with London. And Jacob, I'm really glad you brought up this player to sort of close out our takeaways. Jackson Smith and Jigba is the best wide receiver selection you could have made, maybe in fantasy right now.

He's enjoying this incredible breakout season. We even saw a flu game from him where he put. puts up another 20 points in week three against the Saints. When we were worried as of Saturday evening that he might not play, he finishes with five catches for 96 yards and a touchdown. And that's after following up, two games where he had at least 103 receiving yards and at least eight catches in weeks one and weeks two.

The numbers, there was a lot of fear and trepidation in the marketplace with JSN, even from some very smart people this. off season because they were worried he was going to lose this full-time slot role. But it's been anything but that. He has been thriving in his new role. Tell us what the numbers are telling you about JSN and his value to fantasy managers moving forward. The JSN stuff is truly ridiculous.

And yeah, I'm not surprised to see him winning out wide. This is a player who, like, we've seen put up these kind of ridiculous spike weeks suddenly, you know, like at Ohio State, he had this yard per route run rate that was just absolutely through the roof. He had a game where he had like over 300 yards or whatever. And then last year even where he's like out of this target competition, he occasionally will pop off for one of these games where he has like 180 yards and like 50% of the first three targets. And it's like, what the hell? Where's this been? You know, like I think when he's able to like be totally locked in, he has such refinement to his route running and is like winning at the catch point that East.

almost uncoverable if he has a quarterback like Gino who could like deliver it to him with anticipation for the ball exactly where it needs to be like he can get to that point over and over and over. We just have seen not be that consistent through his first couple of years. And of course there was a bit of a slow start to his first year with injury. But to me it's like if he can do this, if he can stay locked in like this all the time and he has an offense that's like built around that, it's really, really hard to stop. and that's what we've seen.

So first three target rates so far is 50%, which is ridiculously high. Only Puka, Malik neighbors, and Garrett Wilson even have a rate above 40%. I've got a bunch on Jason. So actually I want to take a quick aside on Garrett Wilson real quick. I have a question for you two.

And I would love to hear Scott. Like I'm very curious what anybody thinks about this with Wilson. Then we'll get back to some of the JSN dank stats. The Jets wide receivers and tight-in group, like in its entirety, the receivers and tight-ins have scored 102. PPR points and Wilson has scored 56 so that's 55% of the wide receiver and tight-in points

going to him just one player the next highest rates are 46% for Puka 42% for JSN, 41% for Zayflowers through two games and like I don't know what to do with that like is that is this at all sustainable or are we just like sell so-s-s-s-s-s-sell like easy sell I'll take this one I think with with Garrett Wilson this is sort of what we talked about and I think Ryan and I even talked about this on multiple podcasts together. where the thesis with Garrett Wilson is he's going to lead the NFL in Target Share. The problem with the Jets offense is there's the potential for weeks like week two. So with Wilson, I think the target share is going to be sustainable,

but I think that you're also going to have to deal with some weeks where the offense just isn't working. I think that they have a good approach with Tanner Engstrand. I think that when Justin Fields is there, they're an offense that can put some pressure on opposing defenses. But I just think when it comes to Wilson, there's, it's just not quite, it's not quite what we want to see. But he does have two games with over 22 points scored. And in every single week this, this season, he's had at least eight targets. So, I mean, when you look at Garrett Wilson versus the wide receiver marketplace as a whole, he's a lot more of a bankable, predictable weekly asset than a number of these guys that maybe even a sum that were

drafted ahead of them. So I don't think I'd necessarily be selling Wilson just to sell him. It would take a whole lot for me to sell him. I'm pretty enthusiastic about him moving forward. And they're starting to play Arian Smith a lot more, which is a guy that is sort of a big cardio guy, like a speed guy. So there's really not threats around him at all. Ryan, where are you at on Garrett Wilson? I'm more in the camp, yeah, that it is probably sustainable in that, you know, Yeah, he's going to continue to be one of the most heavily targeted receivers in the league. It's not just the targets. That's why I brought it up is that it's the fantasy points, like 55.

Because JSN is getting the targets more so. And like his rate is 42% of the fantasy points, 55% of Gonda Wilson. And I kind of think that's where the team is going to settle. It's like they're not going to be scoring very many receiving fantasy points. And so if his rate can't possibly be 55%, in fact, it's probably going to drop to like 38% or 40% or something like that, that's a pretty big difference than what we have so far. Yeah, no, I mean, that's fair enough. And even through three weeks, we're still kind of in the realm where if you, I don't know,

if I hate saying like if you just take away the touchdowns and the good plays. But if you just took away the Garrett Wilson touchdowns in week one and week three, I'm sure that that drops a ton, right? That percentage drops a ton. So yeah, I don't know. Like I think we're probably in too small of a sample for like that 50, to be especially meaningful. But yeah, I buy that he will be near the top of the NFL in that metric.

That's his number. That's his stats. That's his fantasy points. That's why I bring it up is because it is meaningful in people's minds. And I wonder if that number is just not representative of what we're going to get. Yeah. I mean, I think that's totally fair. And to Theo's point a little bit, too, I think Tanner Engstrand has surprised us pleasantly

in terms of offensive design. But I also think that this Jets team is just always going to try. to win through the run first. I don't think they're going to like that often, but there's, yeah, there's going to both be weeks where they are like, yeah, L.O.L, we're at a minus 20% pass rate over expectation and nobody is scoring in the receiving game. And there's going to be weeks where Justin Fields just can't do anything like in week two against the bill.

So yeah, yeah, to your point, I think it could be a lot more up and down for Wilson this year, but I still buy that he is like a top 12 wide receiver. by the end of the season. I think when it comes to Wilson, I think that the pivot for you to float out in your leagues, if you're looking to sell Garrett Wilson, then it's taking Garrett Wilson and using him to get Jackson Smith and Jigba and having to give something slightly on top.

I think this might also be the way to pivot off of him in Dynasty, where JSN, I just think it's going to be very sustainable. I think when we look at the end of the season, JSN can be a top five score at the wide receiver position, maybe a top three score at the wide receiver position, but Garrett Wilson just has a little bit more of a cap ceiling because of the quality of offense and the style of the offense. So I'm really happy,

but when you look at the other potential pivots, like are you going to take a by-low on Ladd-McConkey for Garrett Wilson right now? Sure. I would be fine with it. I know that sounds crazy. I was going to bring up Tedero McMillan. You might be able to get T-Mack and a lot more for Wilson. So I think that's a fine redraft takeaway to pivot down to TMAC.

I think that's actually a really, really sharp one where I think at the end of the year, their scoring might be very comparable from like week four on. He's just a weird player to value because the role is exceptionally strong. And there's not a whole lot of pivots that don't take a little bit more before we're thinking. So I think he's more probably a, you're probably more likely to try to use him as a tier up type trade. I don't know if I'm taking Ladd over Garrett Wilson. Where are you out on that one, Ryan, Ladd versus Garrett Wilson? I think I'm on the Wilson side.

I'll still be on the Ladd side here. I mean, I'm still just hanging on to, we are seeing the Chargers be a lot more aggressively pass-heavy than we ever thought possible. I gave a take earlier that it might not sustain through the whole season, but them just being this pass-heavy and knowing Ladd is as good as he is, I just can't imagine that he's being outscored by Quentin Johnston and Keenan, and through the rest of the season. Like, I don't know.

A three-week sample is just not enough to move me off of that prior of just how good lad is. So, yeah, I'll still take Ladd narrowly over Wilson. Let us know in the comments. Are you Garrett Wilson or are you Ladd-McConkie? What way are you treating Garrett Wilson? Really, really an exciting one to talk about. Let's close it out with this one, guys. Last week I had Dave Kluge of football guys,

and we dropped our bold predictions for week three. and the rest of the 2025 season. The show was a really, really fun one. If you didn't listen to it, go ahead and give it a listen. Make sure you're subscribed to Fantasy Football Daily. I'm dropping shows like this every single week. Also dropping a Waver Wire show with Joe Dolan and Tom Brawley, a start sit with Graham Barfield.

And then my solo show, it drops for you every single Monday with my biggest takeaways from the week. Let's talk about a bold prediction from each of you guys. Let me kick it to Ryan. Ryan, get us started. Yeah, so I hope this is bold enough. I never am sure, like, quite how far to go on these. I'm ready. But I, so I think the Rams are like this year's version of the Bengals or the version of the Eagles

that we saw a couple years ago or the dolphins even before that where I think Devante Adams and Pook and Akua just both finish his top five wide receivers. in fantasy this season. Is that bold? Give me like a, you need to make it bolder. That's exactly what mine was going to be. Devante has the most end zone targets in the league, and like everything's funneling through these guys.

They both look phenomenal. That's literally what mine was going to be, but I didn't quite finish with the JSA, so I'm just going to go with JASN as my bold take. This is perfect. JSN finishes how highly, Jacob? Wide receiver one, sure. Like, why is it one overall?

So what I've got on JSN, dating back to 2013, We have four instances of a wide receiver hitting these two thresholds through their first three games of the season. It's four or more yards per outrun through three games with an 80% route rate or higher. I think that qualifier is really important. It's not just like Deshaun Jackson getting huge chunk plays at the beginning of the year or some rookie who's like playing half the snaps and putting up a huge yard per route run rate. It's a full-time player locked in as wide receiver one averaging over four yards per run through the first three games. the receivers are two of them this year Jackson Smith and Jeeba all the way up at 4.8 yards per out run Puka Nukuha this year and then 2015 Antonio Brown, 23 Tyreek Hill, AB scored 388 PPR points.

Tyreeks scored 376. So that's obviously insane. I dropped the threshold to 3.5 yards per out run to give us just a bigger group and it's still insane. The lowest score is 274 ppr points. It's AJ Green in 2015 and 16 games. Like the lowest score out of this group of 10 or so would have been like wide receiver four in points for game last year. The players are AJ Green, Larry Fitzgerald, 285 points, Mike Evans in 2018, 290. Tyree kills on here three times with 334, 347, 376 ppr points.

Debo Samuel in 2021, 339. Julio Jones in 2015, 375 PPR points. Antonio Brown in 2015, 388. Cooper Cup in 2021 with 440. PPR points. So that's 3.5 yards per outrun or higher through three games. J.S.N. could easily finish his wide receiver one. Everything is locked in on him right now. Sam Darnot is playing well. The offense is playing well like we've got. We had a lot of questions about what this officer look like. And so far, it's working pretty well. And I think there's still a ceiling to

it. If we see more of the Clint Kubiak efficiency boosting stuff that we've seen in the past with play action and pre-stamp motion, he's kind of eased his way into that. Um, If he starts leaning into that, then maybe the offense clicks even better than we've seen. I really like the route concepts for JSN. This was something I brought up on Beyond the Box score last week, is that both his horizontally and vertically breaking route rates are up, which is weird. I was looking for players who had a higher horizontally breaking route rate than last year because H-break routes are great.

You get more targets. You score more fantasy points on those routes. Both is H and V-break routes are up. What is that? it's that like static and shallow and those kind of routes kind of not necessarily wasted routes but not routes that are designed to get the player the ball he's doing almost none of that it feels to me as i watch the offense and then also dig into all the awesome stuff of fantasy points data it feels to me that seattle is basically just like clink kubiak every single play has jason in mind like every single

play could be a jason target and then that's of course what we're seeing with the 50% target per route run rate. I wanted to bring up to Ryan. As you look at Seattle and the design target, so when we're talking about Camara, he brought up that Kubiak likes to design screens to his running backs. We haven't really seen that? I'm curious for going to. I think it's, I assume it's kind of like this pre-stamp motion and stuff like that where it's like, I hope it's coming. So far it hasn't. I don't really know why. It's just been JSN. Six design targets for him, one design target for Hooper Cup, one design target for Kenneth Walker. So as I look at all this, it all feels really like, like it could be sustainable and it's all signals of somebody who's in a truly unique role

for fantasy point production. I'm like compared to Malik Neighbors who just shattered records last year and first three target rates. His top rates in any given game were like 68%, 53%, and then he had four games between 45 and 47%. JASN already has rates of 67% and 46%. We're just three games in. And like I said, this is a guy who in the past, even with DKMECATATI Locker there, has given games of 47, 50%, because he can just dominate defenses when the game plan focuses on him.

So it's just like all setting up really, really well for him to just keep doing this. He hasn't even really been getting like the touchdowns and stuff that would lead to huge fantasy production. It's mainly just that the role has been so good that he has to score at least 15 points every week. I think it could get even more out of control for a variety of reasons. And you just hit on something. If we just take a step back and look at how these games have gone, the first.

first game of the year was that very low scoring game against San Francisco, where Seattle was trying to take the air out of the football. It seemed like they were trying to shorten the game, get the win. Week two, we didn't really, we saw again Seattle in a very, very good spot. They end up winning the game on the road in Pittsburgh. Week three, just sheer dominance over New Orleans. What's going to happen with JSN in a game that Seattle's trailing? This is not a perfect team. They're two and one this year, but there's going to be games where they're trailing and they're going to have to lean on JSN for like an entire half. I think those massive spike weeks could be coming. Ryan, some of your, I love your hot take was absolute fire to top five wide receivers from the

same offense. But got to unpack a little bit of what Jacobs said. You're sort of your JSN takes off of some of Jacobs takes. Yeah. So I kind of had the hints or, like the pieces that I think I needed to put together like the JSN puzzle preseason, but I just didn't do it or I didn't have like the guts to kind of make these calls. But yeah, the Kubiak offense, as Jacob is saying, has kind of just removed like all of the fluff that we got so annoyed with for JSN over the first couple years of his career where yeah, now he is no longer just the guy that is running the shallow underneath route that you maybe check down to and he gets like seven PPR scam targets in the two minute drill. I mean, he's still getting the design

targets and the PPR scam stuff and that's awesome. But yes, everything here is just kind of built the funnel to JSN. Kubiak and the Seahawks are among the lowest rate of 11 personnel in the NFL. that sounds like, oh, that would be bad for wide receivers. No, it is amazing for a team's wide receiver one because the fewer wide receivers that are on the field and also the more blockers, fullbacks, whatever else it is, non-pass catchers that are on the field, the more those targets are going to funnel to that wide receiver one that is remaining on the field. So yeah, and it's not just like 12th personnel.

It's also been like two back sets. see, like, Kubiak has kind of done just a mix here of all these different formations that are perfect. And yeah, that are just going to lead to per out efficiency for the wide receiver one. So, yeah, I am with Jacob. I don't think I would rank JSN as my wide receiver one rest of season. But yeah, he's like, he's totally good, bold prediction there. Puka is my wide receiver one rest of season.

Oh, yeah. The reason for that is honestly, because Sean McVeigh is kind of doing a lot of similar stuff with Puka Nakuwa. Like we're seeing the Rams in more 12 personnel. They are even more like at the top of all the play action and pre-snap motion charts and everything than they've been in seasons past. Like it's kind of the perfect set up to just funnel targets to Nakua. And the Rams are also clearly very invested in just throwing to Devante Adams in the end

zone every single time they get down there. In week two, it was like especially noticeable that they just did that like four times instead of handing it off at any point. I don't know if that was like one of their keys to the game or whatever, or like if Adams was complaining in practice about wanting a touchdown or what it was. But yeah, that is clearly their entire offensive game plan is where you're just going to create maximum efficiency situations for Puka and throw a million end zone targets to Adams. Puka has a career yard per route run right above three yards.

For his entire career, over three yards, no receiver has ever had a three-year span. during the time I have the data available where they averaged three yards per hour run over three years. He's done it in his first three years as a pro. Unbelievable stuff. You guys absolutely crushed this one. We could talk for about two more hours, but I got to get you guys out of here. If you're not following Jacob or Ryan, you're really, really doing a disservice to your fantasy teams. Jacob, let everybody know where they can find you and what you have going on once again. at j a gibbs underscore two three you'll find lots of video cutups like on the json thing i did a video cut up of sam darnal and a lot of quarterbacks looking at like their deep throws they're not necessarily deep the throws of 10 or more air yards through two weeks and i noticed that like wait

literally every single one of these targets is going to jackson smith and jigpa and it is like he's getting way more doubtfield stuff so trying to mix all the film with all the data that we talk about here and then the other thing i'll point you to is definitely check out mastering matchups on thursday if you like ryan's Ryan and I is content. We are crushing it. We're going to help you guys win some money. DFS this year. It's a lot of fun. Yeah, your show is absolutely crushing it. Ryan, I'll let me know once again what you've got going on. Yeah, at Ryan J underscore Heath over on Twitter. As I said, all my written content on fantasy points.com. And yeah, please guys, come check out mastering matchups. It's been an awesome show so far this season, even before we've had like a ton, amazing of like sample sizes of data to dig into. I got got some awesome calls. Jake Ferguson last week, Romadunze, before week two.

We don't talk about Dante, V and Wix ever again is what we learned also after week three. But yeah, super fun show. Come check that out over on Beyond the Box score. Wix is going off in week four. Absolutely 100% going on. Yes, I'm resigned to that reality. 100% guys.

You just can't predict it. You can find me on X at the OG fantasy. Make sure you're tuning in to School of Scott. the podcast I drop with Scott Barrett. You got to subscribe to that one. That's not on Fantasy Football Daily. That's on its own feed. Make sure you're subscribed to Fantasy Points YouTube,

the fastest growing YouTube channel in Fantasy Football. You can find all of my shows there. You can find Ryan Heath on Dynasty Points every single week. Live, that's a really fun show as well. You can find My Dynasty Show, Dynasty Life. We're everywhere at Fantasy Points. We're going to help you crush your Fantasy Leagues this season. You know,