Fantasy Football Daily - 2025 Fantasy Football ADP Risers: These Players Are Skyrocketing Up Draft Boards w/Pete Overzet

Episode Date: June 16, 2025

In today’s episode of Fantasy Football Daily, Theo is joined by the one and only Pete Overzet (Ship Chasing, Fantasy Life, Best Ball Breakfast) to break down the biggest ADP risers in high-stakes 2025 drafts — from the FFPC Main Event to Underdog's $350 Big Gorilla tournaments. We dive into which players are steaming up boards (Ashton Jeanty, Rashee Rice, Jameson Williams), who might be overvalued at cost (CMC at 11? Kittle at 25?), and where the true buy-low opportunities are hiding (Odunze? Breece? LaPorta?). Plus: – Pete’s must-draft sleeper on Underdog – His take on Ladd vs. London – A heated debate on Tee vs. Rice – And why he’s out on Aaron Jones and in on Jordan Mason Stick around for a juicy QB strategy convo: is early QB the edge in 2025 redraft? Where to find us: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/Peteroverzet Join the Discord here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Fantasy Points Website - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ NEW! Data Suite - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://data.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We're talking June ADP risers. Theo Greminger with Fantasy Football Daily over at fantasy points, specifically looking at players rising up draft boards in the FFPC. I'm joined today by Pete Overzette. You know him from fantasy life. You know him from ship chasing. We're just going to dive into it. Pete, quick question about ADP because you guys have been doing a lot of this stuff at ship chasing the last few years, ADP chasing. You guys are like talking ADP every single week. How locked in is ADP? from June on and up until like real main event season when we get to Vegas. It's one of those things where I almost think of it like a boiling pot of water where if you check it like within like 30 seconds, it doesn't seem like that much has changed.

But when we show up, you know, at kickoff, you'll look back and be like, oh my God, a ton has changed. And I think that's just a product of like hyper analyzing it on a weekly basis. It's like, oh, yeah, little movements here. Oh, J.K. Dobbins is moving up. R.J. Harvey's moving down. but when we look at things at the end of August after all the training camp stuff, I actually do feel like the draft board will be pretty shuffled up.

Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, you say shuffled up and I agree with you to an extent, but I do think a lot of what we see in rounds one and two are pretty locked in. And then a lot of the movement will see like we'll be a little bit in the rounds three on. So it's, I think a lot of it's sort of the underdog effect where you get all this early ADP sort of shifting the market. And then like you said, certain movement like J.K. Dobbins, guys get banged up, guys are getting these positive training camp reports.

But we've already sort of seen some ADP movement. And we're going to compare guys where they're going now in these $350 contest, big gorilla FFPC contests to where they were going in May. And all of this ADP is courtesy of Fantasy Mojo, Darren Armani, sharing it with the show today. You can go check that out at Fantasy Mojo if you want the most accurate FFPC ADP data. Let's just start at the top. I think one player who's really hot button, sort of an eye of the beholder player for many fantasy analysts, is Christian McCaffrey.

Sort of before the NFL draft and a lot of those really early underdogs, you were able to get CMC consistently inside of the second round. Never fell too much, but it was always a guy that maybe one two turn second round. You knew he was going to be there. Now you're having to make a more substantial bet. CMC is steamed up. He's going 11 overall in FFPC. in the main event we've seen him go as high as like the 107, going side by side with like Ashton Genty.

Where are you at on Christian McCaffrey? Last year in full games played was around 14 points per game. Of course, in previous seasons, he's been a league winner. Where do you fall on this one, Pete? Yeah, I think it's interesting. I mean, there's obviously kind of two conversations about it, both like what we think the market will do and what we think his true value will be. I did a stream on Monday with Lord Reeves from,

shark football and he has CMC 102 in his ranks just like bam let's let's get after it we're back to the the renaissance era of CMC and i see that bulk case you read the coach speak i saw you know shanahan was saying the other days like CMC's a psycho he's dialed in he's ready to go like it's it's like nothing changed i think it's more interesting from the market perspective we've also been burned and lied to by this team a lot of people still have the scars of thinking they had CMC last year and then bam he's headed to germany and jordan mason is the starting running back so i think we're going to see that push pole. I know a lot of smart people think he's going to move up into that 105, 106 range. I guess I have a little bit of hesitancy that drafters are still worried about

49ers, you know, Tom Foolery, some little shenanigans there, so to speak. So I think it'll be interesting. He's definitely going to move up, but I think he might be cap still in that like 17, one eight range. Yeah, I think there's resistance. I don't think he can really leapfrog Jameer Gibbs among the running backs. Yeah. Ashton Genty, depending on just how much steam we get from the Vegas beat reporters, you know, and coach speak, I think from Pete Carroll and certainly Chip Kelly, if we hear some crazy things about Ashton Genty taking on massive amounts of volume. I think there'll be a little resistance with Genty, but it's interesting. The Malik neighbors, C.D. Lamb, Justin Jefferson trio are also closely aligned.

Maybe there's a little bit of a gravitational pull where Christian McAfra gets pulled up towards those other running backs. Very interesting stuff. Not sure if I'm quite there. So head-to-head debate, let's say you're an FFPC main event tomorrow, and you're at the 107, and you can choose between C.D. Lamb, Ashton Genti, Malik neighbors, Christian McCaffrey, Hukinakua. Which way are you going there? Man, that's a really fun conversation. I'll be completely honest. I have not done any FFPC drafts yet. We're actually going to hop in one with ship chasing here, I believe, after the weekend. So then I'll get my toes wet. And I do have to like reorient my best ball brain with season long.

brain. My gut is to say that this year sets up a little bit better for like the hero wide receiver actually and taking advantage of some of the running back values in rounds two, three, four. So I think my lien would still be a CD lamb or neighbors. But man, I'm not going to be grudge anyone who slams the table there for CMC or Gentie. So let's talk about Gentie. Your level of enthusiasm for Genti. And we can keep this specific to underdog because his ADP and FFPC is almost parallel with his underdog ABP. This is a guy that is unbelievably talented, extremely high draft capital, flawless profile, and lands on a team that we think will have tempo and seemingly no competition around him. There's not a running back on the roster that can draw targets away. There's no,

It's like where he most are competing with Zemir White for who the handcuff running back is there, this is all Ashton Genty. What's your level of enthusiasm in early drafts for him? I will say I was on record. I was doing a stream a few weeks ago and I like confided in the chat. I was like, if there's one player I'm a little scared of in round one, it's Ashton Genty right now. And it has nothing to do from a late season perspective. I don't think you're going to find anyone out there that doesn't think Ashton Genty is going to be balling out,

getting 20 plus touches in the fantasy playoffs. But I think specifically in managed and in FFPC where you do really need to get off to a fast start, it would not shock me if it is more of a time split at the beginning of the season than drafters would hope. And we know how this movie goes. It slowly fades away as the season progresses. But if you are paying a round one premium and CMC's putting up 25 to 28 points and Ash and Genti is more in the 17 to 20 point range, that's a pretty big loss for your round one

pick, assuming CMC keeps that up as well. So I think on Underdog, where it is so fully backweighted to how important that late season production is, Gentie, a far more justifiable pick. But I think in FPPC, I'd rather get off to that fast start with the veteran. What's interesting for me is specifically from an FFPC angle, it seems a little crazy. Obviously, the two players are unbelievable talents, but we're seeing a double bet on Raiders, where Brock Bowers is clearly the tight end one overall in FFPC drafts. There's a range for Bowers.

He rarely drops past like the 106 these days. Over the last three day period, we've seen Bowers go at the 101, actually had an appearance at the 108, but that seems like a kind of a one-off type draft. Kind of going to settle in, I think when we get to the main events in Vegas, I think he'll settle in as a consistent top five, top six selection. and then you also have Ashton Genty going two picks behind them. It just seems like a little bit crazy to see two Raiders inside of the top eight.

That would be the only thing that I would worry about a little bit here. We're really, really projecting that offense to be hyper condensed and to have both young players fire off at like an extremely high outcome. That would be sort of my argument. Your thoughts there. Yeah, no, I'm with you because I am going to be, I think, on the side of Brock Bauer should be the 101 and tight-in premium. And so I do think that factors into it a little bit where I am maybe slightly higher

than market on Brock Bowers and just slightly lower on Ashton Genty. I do reject the idea that they can't both pay off their ADPs, that there's like only room for one of these guys. We've seen plenty of offenses that can support two high-end guys if it is fully condensed. I think where your mileage may vary is if you're really into Jacoby-Meyers, you really think Jack Bess is going to take the leap, or you just don't think Gino Smith is good enough to support an offense with three to four consistent weapons. But I think the one variable here that I know without a doubt is that Brock Bowers is a goddamn baller. Like, that's the one

constant I believe in most in this offense. So I'd rather place my bets there and be honest that there still is just a smidge of uncertainty with Ashton Genty just by the fact that he's a rookie. Pat Corain came on this show right around the NFL draft. We talked about some of the rookies, but we also talked about Bowers. He's made the parallel that it's sort of you're getting the Pukunakua usage with tight end eligibility. Bowers is, it's unbelievable to think about just how good he could be with a tight end premium scoring in traditional PPR leagues. I think he'll flirt with 20 points per game.

So if he does that, you're making a really strong argument here. Bowers would end up being like a giving you like top five quarterback scoring if he has that sort of PPR outcome. So with you on that one, you mentioned the second round running backs. Do you have a favorite player to click right now when it comes to Derek Henry, Devon A. Chan, Jonathan Taylor, and I'll throw a Bucky Irving in the mix in those running backs that have been consistently living inside a round two. Yeah, I think the two I've been gravitating the most two right now are Achan and Jonathan Taylor. A-chan, I think, is just a really interesting player in that we're getting a round-one player.

That's the guy we were drafting last year and a round-one workload. We just didn't get the explosive place last year. And I do think it's not hard to envision this offense returning to form and A-chan just delivering as a round-one asset. So he's really intriguing to me. And I want to correlate A-chan with more Miami bets. When I take A-chan, I'm circling Tyree Kill. I'm circling Waddle. I'm circling Jano.

in Tua because I'm saying this offense gets back to what it was two years ago. With Jonathan Taylor, it's so funny to me that we're not necessarily paying a premium on what he did in the fantasy playoffs last year. I mean, you could make the argument he was the best running back. I wonder if it's still just lingering, disdain from fantasy gamers when he threw the ball down at the one yard line in week 15. But he was a monster. And I think almost everyone collectively is a little bit more excited about the Colts offense

with Daniel Jones at the helm, which it looks like we're going to get. So I have a hard time poking holes in the Jonathan Taylor thesis. I like DJ Giddens, but I think he's going to be a Blake quorum-esque red shirt unless J.T. gets hurt. Devil's advocate on Taylor doesn't catch passes. And also like the volume was certainly there, one of the highest volume backs in the league, but doesn't catch passes and has missed time in pretty much every single season. But again, this is the guy that we've taken at the 101 in recent memory. and now you're able to get him somewhere between 20 and 24.

He's a guy that I might have to really adjust here if it ends up being Daniel Jones. I think with Daniel Jones, they're going to try to protect him as much as possible and continue that sort of volume that we saw from Taylor down the stretch. Let's take a quick break. We come back. We're talking wide receivers. Welcome back. Theo Greminger with Pete Overset. Pete, tell everybody about best ball breakfast.

Yeah, so I do a bunch of streaming on my YouTube channel, but kind of the flagship show in the summer. is called Best Ball Breakfast. Every Monday at 10 a.m. I do basically this mega live stream for drafts. I do a solo draft. I have two regular guests, Mike Leone, from ETR and Pat Corain from leg up.

And then I have that rotating guest at 1 p.m. and try to bring on the sharpest drafters, have a lot of fun navigating the streets. A lot of people hopping in to draft. So you're battling people who have similar draft tendencies as you, but always kind of like a good way to start the week and really keep your finger on the pulse. of the market. You're also involved with Fantasy Life, specifically with the newsletter. Let everybody

know about that one. Yep. I write the newsletter regularly for Fantasy Life, you know, five to six times in season. We're three times a week right now. And, you know, a mix of news, fantasy analysis, having some fun, some jokes in there, trying to keep it lighthearted. And we got a great team over there of analysts as well. So all kinds of fun information to play off of and remix in the intros of the newsletter. Yeah, definitely. check out everything you're doing. Make sure you check out ship chasing as well. Really, really fun show. Let's talk about some of these wide receivers. There's been a sort of a debate on Twitter, Ladd-McConkey, Drake London. I think a lot of people are going

to have positive views on both of these players. And these are the certain kind of players that I think a few years ago would have got dragged into round one ADP discussion. The running backs are sort of come back here. We're a little less wide receiver-centric inside a round one. but when you talk about London and you talk about McConkey, you're talking about two players that really, really flashed last year in very, very strong roles, are going to have incredibly high target shares. Where are you at if you have to make a head-to-head decision? Because it's not so much liking all these guys in your same tier.

When it comes down to it, if we're really chasing, we're chasing championships, we need to make the correct decision at ADP as well. Yeah. You know, I don't know if I have any extremely hot takes on it. I guess what I would say is I gravitate toward Lad and kind of the prism that I would justify that decision would be I have a harder time envisioning Drake London being a round one pick next year, but I could see Ladd McConkey being a back end of round one pick. So I think there's a wider range of outcomes for how things go for Ladd. You know, maybe they just really establish it on the ground.

Maybe Trey Harris is really good and things have him kind of sliding in the other direction, whereas I think Drake London will be a pretty stable asset unless the floor, you know, bottoms out underneath Michael Pennix. But with Lad, I could also see him taking the jump that we would expect a player who performed as well as he did in year one to take and be that ascending, you know, year three guy that we're taking, you know, where we're taking Brian Thomas and Nico Collins right now. So I think I generally like to swing for the fences a little bit more capture some of that untapped upside and a guy like Lad.

Yeah, I think I might butt heads with you on this one. I love Ladd McConkey, I think from pure talent perspective, he's unbelievable. But I don't trust Greg Roman as much as I trust Zach Robinson to give him like an absurd target ceiling. And we already saw Drake London last year with 158 targets. We saw in the games where Michael Pennock started, it was like a 39% target share. So sort of head to head, targets are going to be my guide here. And I'm going to go with the guy that I think has the higher target ceiling. That being said, I'm perfectly happy.

when I'm getting Ladd-McConkey sort of at cost at ADP. And these guys are really, really close to one another. I referenced it before, but we're seeing Drake London going off the board as the wide receiver nine at 17 overall, Ladd-McConkey at 19 overall. Do you think we could see a sort of a new, more modern Greg Roman here that could really unleash Ladd's target ceiling here, Pete? Or am I just, am I a little too skeptical on this situation?

No, and that's why I think it's more of a range of outcomes conversation, I do see the downside cases for Ladd. I just see the extreme upside cases, too, where they do tilt their offensive philosophy in the direction of their personnel. Like you could look at them last year in the way, you know, they were getting their footing in that offense.

They wanted to be really ground and pound oriented. Yeah, you could argue they've invested even more in the running game this year, but I think it's a more dynamic running game. I think O'Mary in Hampton can catch passes, can be part of an up-tempo offense. You bring in Trey Harris. You build on what you have with a guy like QJ

who had kind of an interesting, year two, I could see them tilting more pass heavy and playing into that strength. So I'm willing to, you know, embrace kind of the upside scenarios with the downside there. Yeah, definitely an interesting one when it comes to Lad and it comes to London. Let's talk about Rashi Rice, because when we're talking about guys rising up in terms of ADP, Rice has been a significant, significant riser. We saw Rice going somewhere around 34 in the May $350 drafts, and he's consistently moved up and up.

And over the last three days, we've seen him go off the board at 26 overall. And that's over the course of like 20 drafts. This is a pretty large sample size. So Rice is a guy that I think there's a ton of enthusiasm. A lot of sharps are on Rashi Rice, I think industry-wise, as a guy who could take a huge step forward usage, give you like an Amon-Rossade Brown like peak usage season. In the small sample size we have for when Rice was fully healthy last year,

he was unbelievable, just sort of broke fantasy points data in those first three games of the year, of course gets injured. Where are you at with this one, Rashi Rice, at that sort of elevated price tag? Are you in or out? Yeah, I don't know if I've even got a chance to float this take on a show, but I might be one of the few people in my group of peers that's a little spooked by this really rapid rise with Rashi Rice. Like, if I had to draw comparable to it, it feels a little bit like chasing projectable running back volume, where you're looking at the touches and you're like, hey, 20 plus touches. And it feels like there are a lot of, what would it be like,

attacker or risk vectors for the Rashi Rice thesis to go downhill because no one will deny if he is the focal point of the offense, like he is a smash there. But I think there's a lot of ways this go wrong. I think Xavier Worthy, taking a year to leave, earning a little bit more targets. That's one way. Jalen Royals could just be really good. I know that the chiefs traditionally kind of redshirt these guys or slow play them. So you could, you could scoff at that.

maybe Travis Kelsey turns back the clock a little bit and wrestles back more of a target share there over the middle. So I feel like when people are selling me on Rashi Rice, it's on that volume on, you know, feasting in the middle. And I will buy the arguments of like, hey, Mahomes in this Chiefs offense will be more pass heavy this year. They won't be such a slug-it-out type of team. So I see the counterpoint. But I'm also like there are a lot of good players and a lot of new variables in this offense. And I haven't even mentioned Hollywood Brown who barely got integrated into the offense last year. So if you're only hanging your hat on Rashi Rice's volume, I'm a little scared at the two, three turn. It's interesting because I am bullish on Xavier Worthy as well. And I had Ben Gretchen Dynasty Life the other day. He sort of shares the enthusiasm for Worthy. And then in the range of the outcomes in Dynasty, Worthy being the sort of more valuable guy to roster a year from now. A lot of pushback whenever I sort of bring up Worthy, Worthy was a guy where some people look at him as the volume was only there because Rice was injured. And a lot of that Super Bowl production was in complete garbage time.

So that should be a little bit discounted. Those points still count. I think Worthy's very good. I think that's a very interesting thing you bring up. So let's say a little head-to-head debate here. T. Higgins goes right alongside Rashi Rice, as does Jackson, Smith, and Jigba. All three of these guys going between 26 and 29 overall, between wide receiver 13 and wide receiver 15 in recent $350 drafts.

where would you be at for your preferred target if you want to go wide receiver in this range? Yeah, I think like if I am trying to make that volume play there, I think I'd gravitate to JSN where I feel like the volume is more guaranteed. Obviously, you don't get, you know, the offensive upside that you do with the Chiefs, but I do think JSN is, you know, ascending into a massive target earner. And the other name I'll toss out that isn't there quite ADP-wise, but I almost feel better about a guy like Devante Adams. there, I get a little spooked by a bunch of these other players there.

I think it's a flat tier. I like T. Higgins. I like Marvin Harrison. You know, Terry McCorn's fine. But if I had one draft, you know, and I'm sitting there at the two, three turn, I'm probably just taking Devante Adams over a lot of these guys we're discussing. Yeah, we talked about this when I was on ship chasing. I'm really, really high on Devante Adams.

We have him projected to finish as a top 10 score at the wide receiver position. And there's like a lot of, there's a lot of sample size here we have seen of two wide receivers handling a really, really large combined target volume, where last year we saw when Cooper Cup came back and it was fully healthy alongside Pookinakua, the two of them were top two in combined target share along with Higgins and Chase. So I think we'll see that.

And I think there was a lot of very strong points being made that this year's Devante Adams is sort of head and shoulders over what we saw with last year's Cooper Cup. So it's really been a talent elevation in that wide receiver two world. and the usage is very strong. So I'm completely with you. I think Devante Adams is very interesting. His current ADP is wide receiver 18.

So you're getting him a little bit closer to the, actually the three four turn in FFPC. Love that value there. And then you see sort of a fall off at the wide receiver position. But Devante Adams going alongside guys like Tyree Kill and alongside guys like Terry McLaren. I love Devante if we're having to make that head-to-head discussion. Another player that's living inside of round three,

but starting to fall into round four sometimes is Brees Hall. Hall is a guy that, of course, we were taking extremely highly last year, was a guy that fantasy managers have just been head over heels for throughout his career. And Hall now is going at 33 overall. And occasionally we see him inside of the early portion of round four. Seems like an odd place to see Brees Hall. Do you think that this is an exceptional value or a potential trap? Are you in or out on him at the current ADP?

The answer I think is both. Yeah, I think it feels to me a lot like the Kyron Williams situation last year where you can really paint these scenarios where if he holds serve, if he's the lead back and that they're not involving, you know, in that last year's case, it was Blake Korn. We were all worried about it, you know, maybe being more of a timeshare based on the capital they spent on him. And then how did it play out?

It was just Kyron, again, doing the same thing as always done. And it was almost we all felt silly for being worried about it. I feel like the same range of outcomes is here for Breece Hall with maybe the extra added worry of it's not even just Braylon Allen. It's a guy in Isaiah Davis that the team continues to talk up. I think the one really interesting variable here is the quarterback shift as well and what this offense looks like with Justin Fields. And I do think we are going to see a tilt more to the run. I mean, we've just kind of seen coaches and offensive coordinators handle offenses with Justin Fields that way. a lot, whether it's with the read option or just allowing the rushing quarterback to open up lanes

for the running back. So this isn't the hottest take, but I'm pretty neutral on Brise Hall. I take him at ADP when he's there. I'm not reaching for him. I'm not fading him. I think he's a really interesting boom-bust proposition. And I could see him finishing as a top five back and I could see us looking at a guy in a three-way time share with Davis and Braylon Allen and be like, what the hell were we doing? I think that the big out with Bruce Hall is the target volume. This is a guy that. This is a guy that like I did a podcast with Graham Barfield where we sort of broke down over the course of two pods, each and every team's target tree, trying to identify the number one target, number two target.

And when you look at who's on the Jets, how do you not consider Bruce Hall a real challenger to be the number two target earner in that offense and earn sort of a Alvin Kamara like 16, 17, 18 percent target share? there's just not a big target earner at tight end or at wide receiver two. Garrett Wilson's going to get about as much as he can handle. I think he's a threat to lead the NFL in target share. But Bruce Hall, even if you want to mix in Braille and Allen, you want to mix in a little Isaiah Davis,

you're still going to be utilizing Bruce Hall as the receiver out of the backfield. I think that's where he could get people. I'm sort of with you. And for me, it's when Bruce Hall falls into the round four. That's sort of an auto pick for me, especially in bestball. Round three, there's some other players around him that are very interesting. Your thoughts on Chase Brown, who also goes pretty much alongside Breece Hall.

You mentioned Kyron Williams. So Chase Brown right now is going slightly ahead of Williams and Hall. Of course, Brown was this unbelievable volume play down the stretch last year, scoring sort of at will, multiple RB1 weeks in a row, and really, really helped fantasy managers, arguably was the best value at ABP among all running backs last year. Now you're having to pay 28 overall for him, RB 11 prices.

Are you sort of in or out on Chase Brown at this price? I'm in. I think he's probably my favorite third round running back. Just kind of cost adjusted in here. To me, it kind of feels like that last call of these running backs who I really think could have an entire season of like a top five running back. And I always think about, you know, you're playing DFS. I'm drafted in the battle royale teams.

You know, these guys that you're just routinely drafting in the first Brown, the top six picks there. That's what he did down the stretch last year. And I've yet to see a good counter argument about why that's not going to happen again. I don't think the return of Zach Moss. I don't think Taj Brooks. Like, these are not scaring me off of Chase Brown operating again as a true bell cow. And I think the team kind of told us a lot about how they feel about Chase Brown with how they acted in free agency and in the draft. So yeah, I'm willing to buy in on this offense. And I do kind of prefer Chase to T. Higgins if I'm picking another bangle there in that kind of two, three turn range. I have Chase Brown at 20 overall in my top 50 rankings at fantasy points right now. I'm with

you. I think that this is like betting on the volume to go away. I think that the overall carry number could slip slightly, but he's still going to get north of 200 carries this year any way you cut it. And I actually think there is potential that he takes a step forward as a receiver. Yeah. Really, really strong profile for Chase Brown. and an offense that I think is going to be in a lot of shootouts. There's a real competition in that backfield, but it's for who the handcuff is. Zach Moss, Taj Brooks, Samaj P. Rine there. Like, we don't know who's going to win that.

But I think Chase Brown is just head and heels ahead of everybody else. And I think he was going to maintain a very, very strong workload. Let's take a quick break. We come back. We're talking about the big three quarterbacks. Are they an edge to you in early drafts? Welcome back. Theo Gruminger with Pete Overzette.

Pete, let's talk about these big three quarterbacks. You've got Josh Allen, you've got Lamar Jackson, and you've got Jaden Daniels. And these three players have steamed up. They're going somewhere between picks 35 and 38. So right around that three, four turn, it seems like a reasonable cost to pay for quarterbacks that give you this much rushing production with this much sample size of being huge fantasy impact players. Where are you at? Is this an edge to drafters, especially and redraft, like managed leagues like FFPC main events in 350s to embrace early quarterback this year, or is that a little too rich for you? You know, and this is one that will definitely crystallize for me once I actually get in there and draft,

but I think it was when you were with us on ship chasing. I mentioned to Pat, too, just like historically, I feel like a very common theme is you're in one of these high stakes drafts and the board feels flat. You're like, yeah, there's about six wide receivers I'm into here, maybe four or five running backs. and you're like, let me just take the best available elite quarterback. And it feels good at the time. And then you look back on your roster and you start doing the 2B2s of where you took these guys and you almost always wish you had taken the running back or the wide receiver there

and played the arbitrage late round quarterback. And this year there's so many deep, you know, potential quarterbacks that I think offer not necessarily the sky high ceiling that these guys do, but enough to win that 2B2 reliably because the running back wide receiver talent you're taking later on. on just cannot match what these guys do. So I've described it on Underdog with the elite tight end and elite quarterback where it's like the individual click feels so good. Anytime you press Jaden Daniels, it feels awesome.

But then when I zoom out at the end of the draft and look at the 2E2, I'm like, man, I wish I would have just taken Omari and Hampton there instead and then taking a later quarterback. So that's kind of what I wrestle with. Do you have a preferred quarterback target or are there several players that you're embracing right now at ADP? And you can reference Underdog here. It's pretty much cut and dry in terms of the hierarchy in terms of the positional rankings here between FFPC and underdog.

I'd say some of my favorites. I love buying the bounce back on C.J. Stroud. I think the additions of Noel and Higgins are really exciting for him bouncing back, not to mention Christian Kirk. I really like Jordan Love as well. I feel like the way they kind of neutered the offense at the end of the year was a little bit more a product of just what they had in the wide receiver room, their health. Josh Jacobs playing so well. I could see them with the addition of Golden and some of those other younger receivers taking the step, letting love air it out. And then if I'm looking for a true cheat breakout, I'm really in on Bryce Young.

I think he was already playing at a pretty high level for fantasy purposes at the end of last year. A couple like legit QB1 outings there at the end of the season. And now they add Tet. You get all these year two guys like Koker and Legget taking a leap, Sanders as well. I think if we get like that Uber smash who like returns QB8, value from, you know, the depths of the draft board. I think it's Bryce Young this year. Yeah, we had Jacob Gibbs on School of Scott with Scott Barrett and I this week. And Gibbs was also bullish and had a lot of statistical analysis and sort of breaking down the bull case for Bryce Young.

What I think is interesting with Bryce Young is you're getting him consistently at QB 23. We have a history of the Dave Canales quarterback whisperer narrative for several players. The big Gino Smith year was with Dave Canales. Baker Mayfield's resurgence was, was with Dave Canales. And down the stretch, you mentioned it. Like Bryce Young was very good. And I think there's a little bit of unknown rushing upside there. Young had six rushing scores last year.

And five of them were like from week 13 on to go along with his elevated fantasy scoring. Could that have been a comfort level in the offense possibly? So if Bryce Young can give you that a little extra boost as a runner that we're maybe not projecting, then I really like him as well. And he's a perfectly priced QB2. if you want to go into these drafts and draft a second quarterback can get Bryce Young very easily, whether it's best ball or in your redraft managed leagues.

It's just a little curious. I didn't hear you mention any of the year two quarterback. So you sort of out on the narrative that these guys are such a good value like the Bow Nix at QB8, Drake, Drake May around QB 14, those sort of guys, a lot of, and Caleb Williams certainly is going inside of low QB1 land. Are you sort of out on those guys? You know, it's interesting. I think relative to some of the guys I highlighted, I think I am.

And compared to people, again, not to be the wet blanket, I maybe have a little less enthusiasm for Drake May. I feel like we are asking so much of him this year, even with like a slight upgrade in the weaponry. I really do think the linchpin is going to be, is Kyle Williams good. If Kyle Williams is good, I can really start to see it with Drake May kind of having a breakout year.

If Kyle Williams is middling or kind of a flop like Polk, God forbid, I think the offense is almost just doing kind of a slightly better encore of what it did last year. So I think deep down, I'm a little nervous about him. Bo Nix, I like, he strikes me as a little bit more of like a floor play than a ceiling play. I think we would expect him to actually rush a little less this year. We do tend to see, you know, these running backs who aren't like the Omega rushers like a Lamar Jackson. We see their rushing kind of curtail as they get a little older. The coaches want to protect them.

They get a little smarter. So I think, you know, the four is going to be there for Bo Nix, but I don't know if he has like QB5 range in his outcome, which I think I kind of want at the price I'm taking him. Yeah, QB8 for Bo Nix. If you take him at QB8, you're making a bet that he's a top five QB because that's sort of a, we've seen a lot of ADP pitfalls in the low end QB1 land. Like that's consistently been a,

a way where you can kind of mess up your draft by reaching for those sort of profiles. The last quarterback to ask you brief thoughts, Justin Fields, in or out around QB10, he's going to have some rushing yards, Pete. This is a guy that's consistently giving you those. I like him. To me, he feels like the true arbitrage on if you don't want to spend the QB, you know, one, two, three, four prices on those guys, but you still want to have access to that ceiling. Obviously, there's risk with him, but I think with.

Garrett Wilson, you were selling me on, you know, Breece Hall catching some more passes there. But yeah, he is the guy that can finish as a top five quarterback. And like you said, a little cheaper than Bo Nix. There's some kind of fun ways to backstack him a little bit. I love tacking on Mason Taylor if you're projecting a good year for fields as well. So, yeah, I'm with you. He's a guy that if I'm not going running back there, you know,

I'm often looking at like a Cam Scada bow, a Jalen Warren in that range. I do like to grab Justin Fields. And also, if I don't have really clean stacks lined up, you know, when I have Nico and Travis Hunter, I'm like circling Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud, but say I get sniped and I have Terry McLaurin and Devante Smith, it's like, all right, Justin Fields starts to really make sense for this team. Yeah, he's a quarterback that you don't feel pressure to even have to correlate because of the rushing production.

It's actually very difficult to correlate him if you miss on Mason Taylor. That's sort of the last jet you sort of want to click a button on. Let's talk about briefly James, a riser. We talked about him on ship chasing, wide receiver 29. In May, we'd see him go inside of the seventh round occasionally in FFPC 350s. Now we see him creeping into the late fifth and he never falls out of the sixth round. So this is a player that there's a ton of positive buzz on. A lot of very smart people are on Jameson Williams.

Are you in on him at this sort of price? you know, I have not been taking him much on underdog. There's other players in the fourth round that I like more that I do think, you know, I feel like we're close to like the tippity top of like James and Williams value. Maybe I'm just being short-sighted and not being able to see the vision of like James and Williams being like a second round pick next year. But I look at guys, you know, like Travis Hunter or Tet McMillan, these other guys that are readily available there that I do think could be second-round pick.

it feels close to the top for JMO with me. I do like the argument and Pat was making this, that the cheaper cost in managed is actually making it more palatable, which is kind of counterintuitive because people think of them as boom bust and like you don't want to have to guess when the Jameson Williams comes play him in bestball. But I think the risk of, you know, the opportunity cost of who's there in round four makes that tough. But man, if what you're telling me is true that now that that gap is evaporating in the season long streets as well. I think it's going to be a tough click for me.

Yeah, side by side with Travis Hunter. So that's sort of the, the one argument against is next to another guy with a ton of unknown upside. Whereas with Travis Hunter, if we're trying to guess which guy would go inside a round one next year, it's, it's Travis Hunter. Travis Hunter is the kind of guy that drafters are going to really, really want to draft next year if we see some sort of massive rookie season. Let's keep this going, tight end. George Kittle is up three spots from his May ADP. what was going around 28 across all May drafts. He's up to 25 overall.

So you're starting to see him sneak into the second round in this tight end premium FFPC drafting. Sam Leporta is falling. He was at 46 overall in May drafts. Now you're able to get him at 50 consistently. Is this right to have this big of a gap between the two of them? And are you in or out on these two players at these prices? Yeah, I love George Kittle.

You know, he feels like the way to kind of have your cake and eat it too with the elite tight end. I mentioned, you know, not necessarily loving my teams when I take a Bowers or McBride despite loving those guys. Whereas Kiddle feels like the sweet spot. I took him at pick 55 in an underdog draft this morning. And it's just like, man, I get two really good running backs, two good wide receivers and come back and grab Kittle. I'm doing that every day. And the price on FFPC seems awesome to me as well. Laporta, I think I like him more in bestball.

again, knowing that there's going to be kind of that round robin element of who's going off in the offense each week, I think you're going to have some duds that you're going to have and manage with him with weekly. So I think I lean towards the fade at ADP in managed and still a primary target in best ball. Yeah, I'm with you. I think George Kittle is an unbelievable shape this year. I think he's going to have an unbelievable season. And I think the price is right. Getting him at that two-three turn structurally really helped.

you with the tight end premium as well. Calvin Ridley, can he be this year's Cortland Sutton? There's a lot of positive buzz surrounding Cam Ward, and there's a lack of wide receiver competition in Tennessee. Calvin Ridley's moved up four spots. He's moved up from 78 to 74. Drafts seemed to be kind of like a little more excited about him right now, solidly a mid-tier wide receiver three. Do you, are you in or out on this sort of price tag? I think I'm in and I do like that comparison of Ridley to Sutton, the veteran who, you know, struggled to connect with poor quarterback play. All of a sudden you get that upgrade and boom, the touchdown regression follows.

You know, I played Calvin Ridley at DFS a ton last year and just watching him get overthrown by Will Leves. What did he like lead the league in air yards, unrealized air yards? So yeah, it's not hard to say if Will Levis is just average that he's due for a ton of regression and there really is not any competition in that wide receiver room. I mean, you have to be extremely bullish on some of the rookies they added or a Chigacomco break out or lock it, you know, regaining the fountain of youth to not be in on Ridley here. So I think he's a really solid bet in round five right now. In managed leagues, Roma Dunezay is now fallen behind all of the bad team wide receiver ones. Ridley, Jerry Judy, Chris Alabe, all going ahead of Roma Dunesay. And I understand it. Like I've had a lot of smart people

with the Luther Burden threat, the Colson Loveland threat. The draft did not go well for Roma Dunesay. But now you have Luther Burden who's been banged up and has been missing time on the field. Is this sort of a new entry point for Roma Dunzee? Where are you at with sort of the shifting value? He spooks me. His rookie year was not impressive. The team comes in and drafts two guys that I think can be target earners.

And I think he's going to have a role in the offense. I don't think this is like a Kevin White situation. Another first round pick the Bears took where it's just like he's a total bust. But I think the hope of him being this true alpha number one, it just seems less and less likely to me at this point. And so if I'm taking guys in this range, again, thinking through the lens of, I want guys who can be a round two pick next year. I have a hard time seeing Roma Dunesay being a round two pick this year after the new coaching staff came in and said, these are the guys we expect to be the future of the offense. and we haven't even discussed DJ Moore,

who's probably the other biggest beneficiary if Ben Johnson and Caleb can really cook here. So, yeah, to me, Rome just falls into that purgatory of these bears options that is least attractive to me. Yeah, if Romadunze was a stock you invested in, you've lost a lot of money since the NFL draft, really continues to fall. Give us a fade and a sleeper pick,

and we can ship this over to Underdog, a player who you don't want any exposure to and a sleeper that you love having exposure to to end us out here, Pete. Yeah, I checked my exposures this morning to make sure I was, you know, putting my money where my mouth is. I got a pretty big fade on Aaron Jones. I will say the gap between him and Jordan Mason is starting to close a little bit, but you hear the way the coaching staff talks about Jordan Mason.

It seems like a virtual lock that he's going to be the short yardage and goal line back. So now we're asking Aaron Jones at his age to basically go full Barkley on us and do it all with big explosive plays. Is that possible? Sure. But it's something I think I want to bet against, especially if he's the more expensive option of the two. It just really seems like the momentum is in favor of Mason.

And I think you could be buying the bad side of a 50-50 committee here with Jones. And then my sleeper, I mentioned C.J. Stroud. I mentioned being in on the Texans bounce back. I mentioned being skeptical of some of these other round three wide receivers, like a Kyle Williams, giving Jaylon Noel, who continues to slide as well. Like I was buying him at 150 and now I'm getting him at like 170 in these drafts. If I have C.J. Stroud, he's an auto click for me. If I have stuff with Los Angeles and I'm correlating with week 17, he's an auto click for me.

If I need a wide receiver with some upside, he's an auto click for me. I think there's a lot of ways this can work out. Either he's really good. There's an injury. He surpasses Christian Kirk down the stretch. So I'm excited about Noel. There are some Tank Dell parallels between Noel and Tank Dell. We saw how effective Tank Dell was playing alongside CJ Strz

And Aaron Jones, RB-25 and FFPC 350s right now. I agree with you. That price is way too high considering the enthusiasm surrounding Jordan Mason. Could be an ugly split at the very least. Pete, this was a lot of fun. Got to get you out of here. Let everybody know once again where they can find your work. Yeah, over at Fantasy Life for all my written stuff.

I also write a weekly bestball article over there this week, actually looking at my favorite four backstacks. If you're watching this on Friday, that article should be posted. and then just streaming on my channel on ship chasing, if you guys missed it. Last week, we had Theo on, had a really good conversation, kind of a popcorn style going through a ton of different topics

if you want to check that out. Yeah, no, that was a lot of fun. And make sure you check out Dynasty Life. I had Ben Gretchen recently. School of Scott, Jacob Gibbs. Make sure you're subscribing to all of our podcast here at Fantasy Points. We're going to help you crush your leagues this season.