Fantasy Football Daily - 2025 Fantasy Football Breakouts & Values: Second-Year Players to Target & Fade

Episode Date: March 28, 2025

Theo Gremminger brings in Dynasty Points co-host Ryan Heath for a look at 2025 fantasy football breakouts and second-year player targets. To help you win your leagues. Leave a comment and let us know your favorite player value. Where to find us: http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy http://twitter.com/RyanJ_Heath Join the Discord here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/ Find Our Podcasts here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Second year players often provide us some of the best ADP values. Guys take steps up and some guys do take a step back. But there was an overwhelming amount of excitement when looking at that. 24 class, Ryan. Last year, we had a number of players hit at a completely ridiculous level. We're not even going to discuss quarterbacks today, but Jaden Daniels in Dynasty Startups and FFPC on Underdog, he's steamed up to the QB3 in redraft formats,

and he'll challenge for the QB1 in some dynasty formats. We're not even going to discuss him, but your general overall bird's eye view of the guys entering year two right now? Yeah, it's, really kind of interesting year two landscape because on the one hand we had a really good wide receiver class last year a lot of guys to be excited about going into year two there we had the best rookie tight end season of all time last year and then kind of no one else that's super worth getting excited about at tight end and we had one of honestly the biggest busts of a running back

rookie class last year with only a couple guys even really worth discussing as breakout candidates. So yeah, very just positionally unbalanced and they all kind of look a lot different from each other. So I am excited to kind of get into it with you. Yeah, it's certainly we have a, there's a few things with this class. Like there's elite quality at the top. But when looking at these second year guys, there's a few players we've identified that could take that next step and make the class like even, even better, even deeper. I would say that the one argument with this class, is besides the running backs, of course, there's a lack of depth right now. It's very front-loaded in terms of the values from this class. And a lot of times I think we see these players take a step

forward in year two. There were certainly some like negative circumstances for some of the guys that didn't hit last year. We're definitely going to talk about Roma Dune's A. But he's a great example where he lands in a situation where there was a train wreck of a coaching staff. The usage was was poor. There was multiple pass catchers around him. So like we'll dive into him a little bit more. The running back class, this year we're anticipating this incredible running back,

like surge from the 2025 class. So I think that it's going to be hard for that 2024 class to recover. But we do have a couple running backs. We're excited about potentially heading into this year. One player we're also not going to really dive into too much, because of the position is Brock Bowers. But let's quickly take a step back. Brock Bowers was one of the biggest success stories last year,

whether you're a dynasty manager, whether you're a redraft manager. Bowers was the tight end one overall last year, unbelievable performance, and now you're having to pay up. So my question to you is take a step back, look at Brock Bowers' rookie season, and then try to project how valuable he is,

heading into year two. Right now, to give you perspective, Bauer is going to cost you an early pick in FFPC redraft formats. There's early redraft contests going on. Of course, that's the tight end premium, but he's steamed way up. You're talking about drafting him alongside guys like C.D. Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jemir Gibbs,

that sort of level of player. On Underdog, he's a mid-second round pick. But Ryan, what's interesting is there's an incredible gap between him and Trey McBride, and then between him and the tight end three, George Kittle, is just a massive drop-off. So my question to you is sort of, how special is Bowers and how is he going to provide us

potentially league winning upside this year from the tight end position? Yeah, so to first answer your question, I mean, Bowers is insanely special. I'm not going to come on here and ever knock his talent, what he did as a rookie. it was incredible. I mean, even as a prospect, this makes sense. Scott Barrett called him the second best analytical tight end prospect he'd ever seen.

So nothing that is like all that out of consonants with what we should be expecting from Bowers as a player, right? As a rookie, 15 and a half fantasy points per game. But if you just remove the four games where Desmond Ritter played significant snaps, third string QB, Desmond Ritter, he gets up to 17.3. fantasy points per game. And just for some historical context, kind of all of the classic Travis Kelsey seasons where he was providing like these really high win rates at these first and second round ADPs, which is kind of the standard we need to judge Bowers against now, that was about

18 fantasy points per game for Travis Kelsey. That's about where you have to be as a tight end in round one or round two and non-tight end premium to really provide like that positive impact. that just above replacement, you are providing positive win rates, even at that elevated ADP. So I do think Bowers can get to that 17 to 18 fantasy points for game, maybe 20, like in our wildest, insaneest dreams, right? So I'm totally cool with a mid-round-2 ADP for Bowers on Underdog. In FFPC, getting up to like fifth or sixth overall, that it's a little scarier for me. but again, I get it.

Like that in that scoring format, especially that Bowers is one of the only players that I think can provide that level of just value over replacement. With you bring up like the gap to McBride, that's definitely worth thinking about. But I guess my issue with McBride, who performed very similarly to Bowers last year, is where does the improvement come from? He just had the highest first three target share by a tight end ever in fantasy points data history. His usage can't really get any better. He's not really this insanely explosive player where you think he's going to just win off of big plays. Everything about the Cardinals offense is pretty much looking like it'll be the same as last year. So I get the ADP gap between the two of them.

I can see why a step forward is more likely for Bowers than it is for McBride. So, yeah, just in conclusion, I'm totally cool with Bauer's ADP, especially on underdog right now. Yeah, so my pushback on McBride would be, you know, this is kind of heading into his year three because the rookie year was so backloaded. And in terms of just his usage, we, and honestly, it was a slow starting year two as well. But when it comes to McBride, I'd say it's the, is it early enough, is it, is it early enough for us to use the word positive, touchdown regression. Usually those terms are illegal to use on a podcast like this until post-NFL draft at least. But positive touchdown regression with Trey McBride. It was almost silly how few touchdowns he was able to score last year with that sort of usage. Bowers has that as well.

I think my general argument with McBride is maybe McBride should be drafted a little bit earlier because the points per game were identical to Brock Bowers. You just brought up a bunch of reasons that you could see regression from McBride, but I don't know, Ryan. I think that, like, Kyler Murray absolutely loves him. He's in a tremendous situation. And I think repeating around this 15 point per game mark with the potential to score four or five more touchdowns exists. But regarding Bowers, it's sort of like there's absolutely no reason not to steam him up.

You talk about the lack of quality quarterback play he had last year. they go get Gino Smith, who's been good to functional for his entire run in Seattle. This is the best quarterback that Bowers is going to play with as an NFL player by far. And last year we saw him have 153 targets, 112 receptions. Those kind of numbers would get us head over heels for a wide receiver heading in year two. So I think I'm with you. I think that Bowers is absolutely value where he's at. I know in certain FFPC leagues that I've been drafting in, I've pulled the trigger at the 105 a few times.

On Underdog, it's a little bit different because there's obviously structural aspects with best ball. But I think from a redraft perspective, Bowers could give you a massive edge this year at the tight end spot. So I think for me, the takeaway is draft all the Bowers you want, but I think McBride should be drafted a little bit earlier as well, just to put into context for the tight end position. but we are not going to talk about more veteran players like, do like Trey McBride. We're going to specifically focus in on the year two risers. And we talked about Tide-end.

You talked about how beat up the running back class is, but we have two running backs who have certainly gained a tremendous amount of value from where they were selected last year in both Dynasty, redraft, bestball, you name it, in Bucky Irving, and to a lesser extent, Tyrone Tracy. We're going to dive into these two players after a quick, break. At Capital One, we're more than just a credit card company. We're people just like you who believe in the power of yes. Yes to new opportunities. Yes to second chances. Yes to a fresh

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We're talking about year two players. We're talking about breakouts. We're talking about potential league winning values and potential concerns we have. with usage. Let's start out at the running back spot. So my question to you on the show sheet, Ryan, is like we, everybody loves like we love Bucky Irving. Bucking Irving is a guy that fantasy points data, all the metrics were there for him taking on a larger role and breaking out over the second half of the season. I remember talking about it was Scott Barrett on School of Scott. Certainly you guys talked about it on Dynasty points a great deal last year. And then, lo and behold, it happens. Bucking Irving goes nuts.

has a really, really strong rookie season. But now the market has certainly steamed him up. This is a guy where he's going as like the running back nine, an underdog, FFPC. And in Dynasty leagues, he's steamed way up. Depending on your format, I couldn't tell you what first round pick you're getting for Bucky Irving, but he's absolutely worth the first round pick,

probably a mid-first round pick in any single format. And probably something on top of that. Like the dynasty marketplace is head over heels, redraft marketplace, best ball marketplace. Where are you at on Bucky Irving? Does he take a really big step forward in year two? Rashad White is still there. And obviously he's a little bit of a thorn in the side receiving usage wise. But your general thoughts on Bucky.

Yeah. So I think we kind of got a preview of the step forward we could expect for Bucky Irving or the role we could expect for him. And that was just after the Buccaneers by in his five healthy games, he averaged 17.9 expected fantasy points per game that would go out to the RB6 overall across the full season. And on that, he was at 22 and a half actual fantasy points per game, which would have led the position over the full season. That's obviously insane efficiency. He was mostly doing that on like a 55%ish snapshot, which is very impressive. I talked ad nauseum all last off season about how running backs that come in as rookies and are hyper-efficient are really outperforming their volume will usually see their roles grow in year two. That was the whole thesis with Devon A-chan.

It absolutely hit. I do think we can see something similar with Bucky where kind of that post-by role is more what we can expect, like very solidly top 10 running back volume. I think he can do it. I think he can handle it. And I think the Bucks think that he can handle it and want to do that for him, right? They know that he's the best running back on their roster very clearly. You can see that by looking at the wild card game when it was win or go home, 17 out of the 18 backfield carries for Bucky Irving in the playoffs, right?

So I think the Bucks very clearly like Irving as their leadback. I think they like Rashad White and Sean Tucker enough to not feel the need to add significant depth in the draft, I would be relatively surprised if they went running back early. But I will say, obviously, there's always a chance of that, right? So for that reason, I would rather be holding, like, the rookie 102 in dynasty than Bucky Irving right now just because of that slate additional risk and because of how valuable we expect, like, a first round draft capital O'Mary on Hampton to be. But I, like, I'm from a production perspective, like with them as the RB9 on underd

dog. I'm totally cool with that at the two, three turn. I think Bucky can do it. I think he's really good. Really like kind of the only red flag for me is just Liam Cohn departing. New offensive coordinator is Josh Grizzard. He's kind of been more of a passing game focused coach throughout his career. He spent some time in Miami with Mike McDaniel. So I don't know if we still will have like this McVeigh-esque schematic advantage that the entire Bucs offense was enjoying last year. But that's kind of my only pause, I would say, is maybe like the hyper efficiency goes away on the ground.

But again, even if it does, we've seen Irving in very solidly like a top 10 running back volume role. So I'm cool with it from a redraft perspective, from a dynasty perspective, if I can get the 102 and just get rid of any of the risk. I'm doing that. But again, I don't think he's like a screaming cell. where he's in startups, at least, he's going off the board right around the 102 or the rookie 103. I think that's totally fine. Yeah, I'm 100% on board with Omarian Hampton over

Bucky Irving. I'm not seeing trades like that. I think there's a slight apprehension in the market at that level of elite pick for Bucky Irving, certainly in some really competitive dynasty leagues. But for me, it's Bucky Irving. I think he's a fine value. I think the market. it's actually being correct when it comes to Irving. Because I look at the backs around him. And like you talked about, it's sort of like, do I see the upside potential with the backs going right behind Bucky Irving? The guy that I think could burn everybody would be Brees Hall.

And I think Brees Hall is going right behind him or right near him, depending on your format. We've seen Hall with what the ceiling season looks like. Now we have, you know, an offensive coordinator, coming over, Angerstrom from Detroit coming over. Maybe we're going to see a little bit more aggression there. Some interesting usage with Justin Fields at quarterback. Maybe that opens up some rushing lanes for Hall.

But after that, it's like if I'm chasing upside of the position, I certainly like Bucky more than I do Josh Jacobs, who had this unbelievable amount of volume. I like him more than Kyron Williams, who I think there's some red flags there with Kyrin with the fumbles with Blake Corum heading into this season. Kiron, you're getting them a little bit cheaper than Bucky, but not so much that I would want to pass up Bucky. And then when we get down to guys like, you know, certainly like Chase Brown, Chase Brown really

had this, the truly ideal usage last year. So he's going a few picks behind Bucky. I think Bucky's in a fine place. Also have to factor in in certain formats, Bucky's going near guys like Ladd McConkey, Garrett Wilson, Jackson Smith, and Jigba. I mean, opportunity cost positionally, maybe you'd be passing on an elite wide receiver. But I think Bucky's fine.

How about your thoughts on him taking a big step forward as a receiver, Ryan? Because I think we're both saying he's fine value, but he could turn into an exceptional value if he can absorb that Rashad White receiving usage. Let's say he absorbs 30% of it. You're talking about a guy last year, Bucky, at 47 receptions. If he can cross the 60 reception total area on top of what we saw last year with his

efficiency as a runner at 5.4 yards per carry, now we're really talking about a guy who could give you top five running back upside. Yeah, so the receiving conversation is interesting with him because pretty much for Bucky's entire rookie season, yeah, Rashad White was largely running more routes than he was. but Bucky was matching him or besting him in terms of targets, especially kind of down that post-by stretch that I just described. I mean, a 12.3% target share in that five-game post-by sample, that would go out as the RB7 across the full season.

But again, to that point, just a 43% route participation rate, that was like RB20-ish. So what you're seeing there is the Bucks and Liam Cohn being very intentional, about getting the ball in Irving's hands, especially with designed work down the stretch. I think he keeps that. And I also, yeah, I don't see why he can't take away at least a few of like the more kind of natural like third downy type of routes and a few additional targets

from Rashad White there as well just in that role. So yeah, I am pretty comfortable with projecting like a at least a slight route share increase that should come with it. It may be a slight target share bump or it maybe keeps it about similar if the efficiency or the design usage falls off a little bit. But yeah, I'm pretty comfortable with Irving's receiving usage. I think the most likely place for it to go is up.

So, yeah, I'm cool with that as well. Yeah, I don't know that it's that likely that he just gets up to like Alvin Camara levels of route participation and is just like the only running back that is running real routes on the team. I still think that White kind of sticks around in that role to some extent. But yeah, I mean, you're right to your point. If he doesn't, if White is just totally cooked, then, yeah, you're just looking at easy top five workload for Bucking Irving. And we know we can produce as a top one or top two running back on those types of workloads.

So, yeah, give it all to me. Another running back who last year provided dynasty managers, regraft managers, best ball managers with value was Tyrone Tracy. He entered the year as a kind of popular sleeper pick because of the backfield situation around him. The narrative that Devin Singletary couldn't really hold him back turned out to be very true. Tracy ended up taking over relatively early. This is a player that once he got his opportunity, week five, is coming out party. He had a 14 point week, followed up by a 23 point week, and then another 23 point week in week eight.

This is the guy who ended up the season averaging 10 and a half points per game. So he gave you solid mid-RB3 numbers at the end of the year. But if you simply take away that those first four games, it goes up significantly. Receiving wise, he had 38 receptions, which was fine, a number we'd like to see increase. and then rushing-wise, he was efficient enough. He averaged four and a half yards per carry, 839 rushing yards. Now, Tracy's this ultimate, like, litmus test guy. I think if you talk to some people, they view him as this great value at RB25, and then you talk to some people, and it's like,

I'm really worried about the NFL draft. Tracy, of course, is a 25-year-old, has a limited sample size of playing the running back position, and really give you that one big year at Purdue, played wide receiver at Iowa. So this is one where running back 25 seems about right to me. Do you view Tracy as this really big value there? Or do you see him as a guy where you're a little bit worried about just getting through the NFL draft?

Yeah, I'm definitely worried about getting through the NFL draft. So the Giants do have the 34th overall pick. if that's like a Quinn Sean Judkins or a Henderson, then it's going to feel pretty jover. He's new. See you later, Tyrone. Yeah. Like, it's pretty much done at that point.

Or at the very least, you're very mad that you were taking him at his current ADPs and his current values, right? They also have multiple third round picks. They have that compensatory pick, I think from Sequin leaving, which would be funny if they drafted a running back with that pick. So yeah, there are some opportunities for the Giants to add to this backfield.

They definitely have other needs, but this is also a coaching staff, coaching for their jobs, a kind of short-sighted win now, like let's draft an impact player on our offense type of move, would not be all that surprising to me based on how this organization is currently operating. Just, I don't know, everything about signing Russell Wilson kind of speaks to that a little bit. I think. So, yeah, I am genuinely very worried about the draft for Tracy. But kind of more to that idea is, yeah, if he's the RB-25 in redraft formats right now or the RB 18 by Dynasty ADP at about the rookie 201, I'm not sure you actually win that big

if you do win. Like, let's say the Giants don't draft a running back until day three or at all. last year from week five on after singletary first got hurt and tracy took over the backfield just 13.2 expected fantasy points per game out of tracy actual fantasy points per game again about 13 so yeah you're you're in like this low end rb2 type of territory with him um none of his like efficiency metrics like really pop off the screen in comparison to singletary um just kind outside of just the pure yards per carry, which we know is one of the least sticky efficiency metrics. So I just kind of look at him at RB25 and I'm like, well, if I'm right and he doesn't get competition

added, then I've essentially broken even, at least on his production last year. If I'm wrong and he gets competition added, this is a disaster. And the only way that this pick really profits is you have to hit the parlay of they don't add competition and also he gets expanded usage as a receiver, which we really only saw for like two or three games last year for some reason where they really wanted to use him in a past catching role, which again is odd given his history, the fact that he's a converted wide receiver. So yeah, I'm just kind of lukewarm on Tracy. I think in, at least from a redraft perspective, I would rather be clicking like honestly

the Naji Harris's or the Aaron Joneses or the Tony Pollards that go right after him. Yeah, all of those guys could also have competition added in the draft, but at least Harrison Jones are on significantly, significantly better offenses, better environments. We've seen those guys score as more like high-end RB2s in recent history. So, yeah, I am just kind of on Tracy. I do think he's a sell for like the 201 or the 112 in Dynasty if he's on your roster. Yeah, that's kind of where I'm at. Yeah, and again, And like, I agree with you. But I, those trades I don't see existing right now.

I think like Tracy, the time to sell him would have been, you know, when Brian Daible was retained. Brian Daible being retained, I think is a win for Tracy because we saw Daible make the switch from his guy, Motor Singletary last year. That's his nickname for Devin Singletary. Not necessarily mine. But Daible likes Tracy, used him last year. Daible gets retained.

The quarterback decisions, that's a whole. whole that's a whole other show. But I think that at the end of the day, if Tracy survives the draft, he's, he's going to return value. If he doesn't survive the draft, then there's real issues. It's simple as that. So for me, I think maybe my cutoff might be a little bit lower in terms of a potential re-roll in a super flex format. On underdog, a big contest, I would be willing to kind of take a shot on a Tracy because I do think he's got the receiving upside, Ryan, but in terms of like a regular, a regular 12-man league, like some of the FFPC ones where you have to win to kind of get through, get into the next round, got to finish top two in your

league. I might have a little bit more trepidation. Certainly I like Naji more than him at this point. But Tracy, I think is an interesting one. I saw one big trade in a very high stakes league on FFPC dynasty where it was Tracy for Travis ETN. It was like rolling question mark for question mark kind of trade. So there's some interesting trades out there in the marketplace for Tracy,

and he's definitely one we're going to keep an eye on. Lightning round here of the non-Bucky Irving Tyrone Tracy running backs, if you could roster one of them right now with the potential to have the best possible 2025 season, who would it be? Yeah, it's pretty clearly Blake Corum to me. And part of that is just because he didn't fail so spectacularly in the sense that like a Troy Benson did, right? Like James Connor gets extended.

We don't see that with Kyron Williams, obviously. Or he doesn't have like a multi-year re-injury issue with someone like a Jonathan Brooks. So yeah, Corum kind of is a winner by default in that sense among the rest of this class. But also some pretty interesting coach speak from Sean McVeigh recently, talking about how he kind of admired how his protege, Liam Cohn with the Buccaneers, kind of had a more of a variety of personnel groupings and was able to be a little more fluid on offense with getting multiple running backs involved, especially with Bucky Irving, a rookie coming in and being a big contributor down the stretch. There's another McVeigh quote where he included Corum as like one of his stars on offense. So I really think that there's a chance that Corum just outright wins like a 60-40 role with Kyron Williams this year as the RB 52 on underdog rights.

now, even that would be a win. And he still has this amazing contingent upside as just the clear RB2 would very likely step into a full-time role, into this belkow role, the 80% plus snap share role that we've seen Kyron in for the last two seasons if he were to get injured. I don't know that McVeigh actually cares about the fumbles. He has never shown us he actually cares about the Kyron Williams fumbles. So some people think that that's a really big deal. I put less weight into that, honestly. But yeah, out of all the other year two running backs, I think Corum is just the one I would most prefer to have on a dynasty roster

or the one I'm at least interested in clicking right now in redraft. Benson's an interesting one. I don't think I'm as out as you might be. Benson, there's also been some positive coach speak when it comes to Benson. Again, like Benson had his struggles, but the whole narrative with Benson last year was James Connor can't stay on the field. The fact that James Connor had this year that was like an outlier year for him in terms of staying healthy, playing every game, that has not been the case for most seasons

of his career. And you're talking about a guy who's going to be north of 30 next year. So again, if Trey Benson survives the draft and he's the clear cut RB2 there, I think there's a little bit of value. But I agree with you, it's Blake Corum. Blake Corum has a pathway this year and year two to see a significantly larger role. And I think that the Kyron Williams fumbles didn't matter as much last year. But if this is something that carries on into this season, I mean, how can you tolerate that if you're a team that went out and got Devante Adams, views themselves as a real contender in that division?

the Rams have been very competitive in losses in back-to-back playoffs. This will be the year after, you know, like restructuring and getting, like, right with Matt Stafford. It seems like it's a one more year type push. Go get him, Devante Adams. You can't have a running back coughing it up. And we've seen this in multiple seasons with McVeigh, the rugpole at running back, where you saw Cam Acres being being.

passed over for Dorell Henderson. We've seen Kyron Williams take over. It's happened in like multiple seasons with McVeigh, where a guy just sort of takes over, and we don't necessarily have that sort of information, and it just sort of happens. So I'd love to have access to a lot of Blake Corum. The wide receiver class was unbelievable last year.

We had two wide receivers finish as top six scores of the position in PPR leagues. We also had Ladd-McConkey average north. of 15 points per game. Unbelievable production from the top of the class. Xavier Worthy had this tremendous NFL playoffs, a huge Super Bowl. There's a lot of steam with the 2024 class heading into 2025. We're going to take a quick break and we come back.

We're talking about those players. Welcome back. Fantasy Football Daily, Theo Greminger with Ryan Heath. We're talking about the 2024 now second year player class. We've been putting a lot of attention into the 2025 rookie class. Ryan and I participated in a fantasy points rookie mock draft the other day right here on this show. A lot of fun. Make sure you go and listen to that one.

Scott Barrett, Brett Whitefield, Joe Dolan, Thomas Tipple, they all joined us. Ryan, we completed a lot in like 75 minutes on that one. That was a lot of fun. So highly recommend you go back and listen to that one. And we're going to have a lot more 2025 rookie class content pretty much up until the NFL draft. And then right after getting you ready for your dynasty leagues. but today we're specifically looking at the year two players. And the wide receiver class, unbelievable.

So everybody knows we like Malik neighbors. Everybody knows we like Brian Thomas Jr. Those two guys, the market has pushed into the first round in FFPC, the first round on Underdog. Both of these guys, tremendous talents, teammates at LSU. And in Dynasty, good luck going and trading for these guys. You better be willing to pay a hefty price. They're both locked and loaded,

in wide receiver ones in dynasty startups, in dynasty value, you name it, Ryan. Who scores more points this year and who would you rather have on your team? Let's take it to redraft, Brian Thomas Jr. or Malik Neighbors? Okay. Who would I rather have in redraft this year? I think it's Brian Thomas Jr. for me, actually. I flipped my opinion on this from a couple of months ago. So you'll look at BTJ.

or I'll even back up a little bit more. You just look at every rookie wide receiver over the past few years, so since 2021, and you look at, okay, what is most predictive about a player's rookie season of their fantasy points per game in year two, right? And the most predictive things are literally just the total fantasy points they scored or fantasy points per game or the amount of catchable targets that they earned, right?

because catchable targets, those are the ones you can actually score fantasy points on. It just kind of bakes in the importance of good quarterback play, right? In terms of quarterback play, I would give BTJ the edge right now with Trevor Lawrence. And in terms of fantasy points, Brian Thomas Jr. scored the most total fantasy points by a day one or two rookie wide receiver since Jamar Chase. And again, that is like the most predictive data point of what they do in year two. right? If you just take out weeks 8 through 11 where BTJ was playing through like this really painful chest injury, it was averaging 18.9 fantasy points per game. That was the same as Amuneraw,

St. Brown, and Pooka, last year. In that same sample, 2.76 yards per out run, best by a rookie wide receiver in fantasy points data history. Now Liam Cohn joins the Jaguars. we talk all the time about there's a few coaches in the NFL that give this schematic advantage to their receivers. Cohn, I consider one of them as we talked about in the Bucky Irving section, right? And but kind of most exciting to me about Cohn specifically is his system, especially compared to the Doug Peterson system, is just a lot more conducive to wide receiver production, right, and to easy wide receiver production. every Jaguars fan would constantly complain about all we're doing is hitch routes it's just hits routes all around right now on this offense cone is very much the opposite where he loves

having his receivers just run a ton of easy slants those are some of the easiest routes to score fantasy points on BTJ per fantasy points data by our average separation score charting had the best average separation score on slant routes last year. But he only ran them at an 18th percentile frequency. You compare that to like a Mike Evans was in the 88th percentile for slant routes last year, getting like a 40 percent target per route run rate on them. Yeah, I just love, love, love kind of the skill set match between BTJ with this Liam Cohen system.

He is my, yeah, he is my top year two wide receiver. entering this year. That's not to say, Neighbors isn't amazing. I mean, I just talked about how catchable targets are really predictive. Neighbors had the most of those of any wide receiver since 2021. Obviously, the volume he commanded was insane. It was special. I actually love that James Winston is theoretically the backup. Hopefully, I just am praying we get a few James Winston games for Malik Neighbors at some point in 2025. I don't think. Winston has much of any shot of being the week one starter, but in any games he plays, I mean, he just juices the fantasy production of all of his receivers.

In his starts last year, the Browns led the NFL in catchable air yards per game. It was like 21% better than the third place team. Yeah, so both of them are awesome. I'm actually going to give BTJ a slight edge for me, and that would go for both redraft and dynasty. Yeah, and for me, I hate it because I want to make a case for Malik Neighbors. I think that the case for Malik Neighbors is that the number one wide receiver in fantasy football for four straight years has led the league in targets, led the league in receptions. So I think Malik Neighbors has that in the wheelhouse.

But the Brian Thomas Jr. is not too far behind. like BTJ going from 133 targets as a rookie to 165 targets as a year two player is certainly in the wheelhouse. I also like how you get Trevor Lawrence back, but they've cleared the pathway of two former easy button targets of his. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are both off the roster. So the two guys that Trevor Lawrence has familiarity with, maybe would have taken a little bit of a target share there. Certainly in Engram's case, a guy who would be living in the slot at the tight end spot, those guys are gone. In their place right now, you have Brenton Strange and then DiMi Brown with some Gabe Davis. I believe that the wide receiver two for the Jaguars is going to be addressed in the draft.

So Brian Thomas Jr. going from like a 25% target chair to like a 30% target chair is possible. You talk about the Liam Cohen offense being a huge benefit to him. I completely agree with you. But this is a guy where we can potentially see a Josh Gordon, wide receiver one overall type season out of him. BTJ is just like a weapon of mass destruction in fantasy football. But I would be fine with both of them. But if which guy I would consider pushing up in my drafts to get exposure to

and taking him around like the 106 and pushing him from his ADP would be Brian Thomas Jr. Malik neighbors, I'm totally fine taking him when he falls. into the range he's going at in ADP. So love them both, but certainly the situation brings Brian Thomas Jr. up. Let's talk about Marvin Harrison. Marvin Harrison was a player that was the highest drafted rookie wide receiver ever in ADP,

whether it was FFPC, whether it was underdog, whether it was NFFC, any format you play in. This was a player that steamed up to the one-two turn in Reed, Rheast. Harrison Jr. in Dynasty startups steamed up right alongside Amon Ross St. Brown. He was going around like the wide receiver five, wide receiver six range last year in dynasty startup. So first round selection in redraft essentially or early second and a top six wide receiver in dynasty startups. The season did not exactly go as planned. We talked about the Tray McBride usage and certainly Tray McBride leading the team in receptions was never out of the cards,

but completely dominated Harrison Jr. In terms of fantasy points per game, he averaged like four more fantasy points per game. He had more targets. He had more receptions. Harrison Jr., historically, it's not like a massive failure type year. He did have eight receiving touchdowns. He had 62 receptions.

He had almost 900 receiving yards. And he did have the spike weeks, Ryan. Like when we look at it, we see a 29 point game, a 23 point game, a 16 point game, a 17 point game. And then he ends the season very well. He gets you 15.6 and 17.3. But I think the troubling thing with Harrison Jr. is these games where he was completely unusable. He had a 1.4 point week to start the year. Of course, he followed that up with 29, gave you a zero pointer in week six, a five pointer, a three pointer, a five pointer.

I mean, this is not what we signed up for. There's been discussion about how the usage was poor in Arizona, maybe some self-scouting in the off-season, find a way to keep Marvin Harrison Jr. being used the same way we saw him end the season. Do you have hope for a big year-two leap in production? Or is there some underlying metrics that leave you a little bit nervous? I mean, I always will have hope for a prospect that was this highly thought of going into year or two.

Like there's a very good chance that Marvin Harrison Jr. Average is more fantasy points per game than he did last year, right? Which was just 11.6 fantasy points per game. Yeah, I do think he takes a step forward. But I also think that in most formats, you're already paying for the step forward. And we'll get to that a little bit later, kind of comparing him to some alternatives.

But I want to kind of harp on the usage the most because I think that's actually the most important thing for him. 14.1 averaged up the target that is fairly deep, right? And also, 75% of his routes came on the perimeter. That's the second most in the league. That is per Jacob Gibbs on Twitter. So you're kind of seeing this very deep usage and all of this perimeter usage, which is what he was not really excelling on in terms of our average separation score

charting and of course in terms of the fantasy results that's not super surprising right it's a lot harder to be a consistent fantasy contributor on like these really deep outside routes um if you just look at day one and two rookies over the last few years um with the highest contested target rates which again is a consequence of that type of usage downfield perimeter it's just like the hardest routes you've got the top nine and contested target rate is Jalen Polk, Alec Pierce, George Pickens, Nico Collins, Quentin Johnson, Diamie Brown, Marvin Harrison, Jahan Dotson, Berks, right? So all of those receivers, even though there's like a couple success stories there, are just think about the type of receiver and the type of usage that we're seeing here, right?

It's just not like the easy button fantasy friendly, like design target, like short route type of thing, right? So Harrison kind of has to win in fantasy on hard mode. I would also point out that what the really big winner out of that group, Nico Collins, didn't break out until year three with a different quarterback and coaching staff and really some different usage, right? So that's kind of my concern for Harrison is he has to be so insanely special, so insanely outlierish to kind of overcome this just very fantasy unfriendly usage that I'm just not that

interested in paying the price that you have to. In Dynasty startups right now, he goes back to back with Ladd McConkey, who again scored three and a half more fantasy points for game than he did last year. And both of them are in relatively similar situations. There haven't been any coaching staff changes for Marvin Harrison. It's still going to be Kyler Murray. who, again, is not really a great or accurate deep passer. He isn't really hanging in the pocket, like waiting for these deep routes to develop. It's just a really bad skill set match to me, at least with how Harrison's currently being used. Cray McBride's not going anywhere.

Like we talked about him earlier, but he's the one that is really dominating kind of this middle of the field, shorter target usage that is more fantasy friendly. So, yeah, I'm just not that into Harrison, especially at his cost in Dynasty. Even in redraft where he's going a few spots behind Lad, but still at the wide receiver 18, that's quite a bit of a jump already kind of priced in for him. So, yeah, I am not really interested in Harrison at his cost right now. I don't think it's like Jover for him or anything. I definitely, I think he's a good player. He could definitely have a breakout next year.

But again, just at cost, I'm not all that interested in buying in. Yeah, I would say that the marketplace when we talk about cost is really aggressive towards breakouts and upside picks these days. You don't see in years past, a guy would have, it would have been like, let's really punish this guy for not returning value last year. You could make an argument, Ryan, that it's a post-type sleeper here. The situation is not really unlike what it was last year. his wide receiver target competition hasn't improved at all. This is, or excuse me, it hasn't changed at all. So Harrison Jr., I think I may be a little bit more bullish.

I think that the, I think that there is safer picks alongside of him in ADP. Certainly DJ Moore alongside of him in FFPC and Underdog. Maybe that's a safer pick with Ben Johnson taking over. We've seen DJ Moore do it before. he's two years removed from a wide receiver six season. Maybe that's a safer one. But in terms of chasing that upside, I think it's there for Harrison Jr. And I think it's a chance for Arizona to really reflect on what work to end the season versus what didn't work with some of the uses.

You brought up a lot of like the underlying metrics with him. But I think things can change a little bit from year one to year two. So I'll take a little bit more of an optimistic approach, I think, with his current price. one guy he's going very close to Xavier Worthy. Xavier Worthy last year, the narrative sort of changed, Ryan. It was a, this guy's not getting any usage. And then towards the second half of the year, we saw an increase in the usage. And then, of course, in the Super Bowl, in a game where it was a complete blowout,

Xavier, worthy ends up with this ridiculous stat line, which I think has moved him up a little bit, just showing like what a ceiling game really looks like for him. Rashi Rice should be back. and Kansas City will probably add some offensive threats in the NFL draft. Threats for touches, let's put it like that. Xavier Worthy, this is another eye of the beholder guy. You're paying right around wide receiver 20 prices for him. Certainly there's some structural elements on on underdog when it comes to Worthy Heat,

but he is a wide receiver 20 there, ride receiver 20, FFPC. He's gained dynasty value as well. your general thoughts with Worthy. Ryan, I think you're muted. My apologies. There you go. There you go. So yeah, with Xavier Worthy, my kind of general thoughts are, or first, I guess I'll address

like the off-field stuff. We recently found out that there were no charges filed. He suing his former girlfriend. We don't know if the NFL is going to do anything about it. I'm just going to give my analysis as if he's on the field week one. Yeah, and I don't think it's. I'll say like for me, I don't think that that's something where we don't know which way the NFL is going to react, but it's certainly not a legal matter at this point. There's no real charge here. It's more

of a civil thing and does the NFL act on it? These cases, I feel like you're almost better off just ignoring them. A lot like the NFL also could take a long time if they're going to do anything here. So I'm sort of with you. It's it's not part of my process with Worthy. Yeah. So kind of with that like pushed aside a little bit. were they just from an overall statistical perspective had, I would say, good enough of a rookie year on paper to talk ourselves into like a year to breakout, right? In some of those most predictive metrics I just mentioned, 72 catchable targets, 11 fantasy points for game, that's even with Devante Smith's rookie year, for example.

So this could be like a player that develops, it breaks out, that becomes like, like a long-term asset in the league, definitely in like a breakout type of range for those metrics. But looking a little bit closer, I have like some concerns. So from weeks 11 to 17, that was kind of where these big like heater, 15.15.6 fantasy points per game, right? That's great. But very critically to me, that was on with 22% of his targets coming on designed looks, right? just under two design targets per game over this kind of back half of the season,

that was worth about 2.6 fantasy points per game for him. So if you take away those design targets, you're looking at more like a 13 fantasy point per game player, which again, for a rookie, still very good, still something we get excited about. But just visualizing this Kansas City offense this year, it's worth remembering that both in his own rookie season and through the first three weeks of the year, it was Rashi Rice that was dominating this designed work, right?

2.7 design targets per game from weeks one to three for Rashi Rice. I would lean toward that probably goes back toward Rice mostly if they're both on the field together in week one. So I do think that that is a bit of a concern for him because I think he could get squeezed out of kind of that shorter design role. and he didn't really show enough to me in terms of the deep ball stuff at consistently enough for me to feel all that comfortable with him taking a step forward there and near two either. His deep ball tracking, I know was Brett Whitefield's biggest kind of trait-based concern on him coming out of college.

I don't think he really dispelled that at all in the season. Like, yes, definitely hit on some big plays in the Super Bowl and a blowout. but I mean, in their games together, Hollywood Brown had a higher air yard share than Xavier Worthy did. His separation downfield, all of our average separation score metrics, especially on like those deeper go and post and corner routes were not amazing for Xavier Worthy. So I'm a little concerned that he kind of gets squeezed from both directions with a full season of Hollywood Brown with a foolish season of Rashi Rice that maybe that his role just kind of shrinks on each side from both the deeper stuff and the design target stuff.

So, yeah, in Dynasty, I would rather have guys like DJ Moore, Zayflowers, Christian McCaffrey for production that are going around him. But I don't think it's like that egregious that he's the wide receiver 19 because there is really big upside there, right? If he has this huge breakout as the wide receiver 19 and like the late fifth in Dynasty startups, that can be a round two startup player with a big breakout, right? Like, I do see that and I get that with him. You're attached to Patrick Mahomes.

It makes sense to me kind of where he is in Dynasty. I'm just less interested in redraft, I think, with the alternatives where he's going between a Mike Evans and a Devante Adams, or if you want someone younger, even like a Devonte Smith. Like these are all guys that we have seen post really strong production. it's definitely a projection with Worthy at this point has kind of some like tides going against him from a usage perspective like I just talked about. So yeah, very surprisingly to me, I'm way more okay with Worthy in Dynasty than I am his redraft cost right now. So I think I'm higher on him than you are in both formats.

In Dynasty, I'll take him over Zayflowers all day. I think when it comes down to it, it's a, I trust the system. I trust Andy Reid, and I love the fact that he ended the season with all this back-end production. And not only the back-end production, but it was the snapshot going up. So you referenced Rashi Rice. Like Rashi-Rice was lost early in the year. But as we, the season progressed using worthy more and more not only on touches, but on a full level of snaps, the guy was 85% plus snapshot from week 14 on.

and then when we talk about the scoring, this is one where I've gone back and forth with some guests and some people care more about the back end production than others. But for me, when a rookie scores a lot at the end of the season, that can keep going into year two. Where we talked about Worthy, from week 15 on, he had six games, excuse me, five games, including the Super Bowl,

where he scored more than 19 points. So I'm getting the Snapshare, I'm getting the big playability. And I think having a full year of Hollywood Brown and Rashi Rice, that's going to make that offense more functional. And it'll open up things for more big plays from Xavier Worthy. So I'm going to look at Xavier Worthy, like I'll take them at those dynasty costs all day long. And wide receiver 20 seems about right when I'm chasing this sort of upside.

So we'll revisit this one during the season, Ryan. We're going to take a quick break. We come back. We're talking about Roma Dunzee. everyone's pick for this year's breakout candidate. Snap up Ancestry DNA's lowest price ever in our incredible cyber sale. With 50% off ancestry DNA kits, it's the perfect time to help a loved one unwrap the past.

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for details. Conditions apply. Welcome back. Fantasy Football Daily, Theo Greminger with Ryan Heath. We're talking about the 2024 class players heading into year two. And Ryan, the one player that if I ask anybody, and I've done a number of these shows on Dynasty Life here, we've talked about it over at School of Scott with Scott Barrett, you know, anytime we talk about breakout candidates, guys that are going to take a big step forward, you almost have to include Roma Dunezay. This offseason's been nearly perfect for him in terms of the coaching hire with Ben Johnson, in terms of the offensive line upgrades that Chicago has added to help Caleb

Williams, and in terms of the fact that Keenan Allen looks like he's not going to be a Chicago bear next year. So Roman Dunesay should be on the field a lot in a system that has been very, very fantasy football friendly with a coach that is very aggressive offensively, with a quarterback that we expect to take a step forward in year two and an offensive line that should be better. So talk to me about your enthusiasm for Roma Dunezay. This is another situation where, Ryan, you're not getting any discount. Like you're paying high-end, wide receiver three, if not low-end, wide receiver two, prices depending on the draft you're in for a Dunezay.

Despite not hitting as a year one guy, no one's giving you any sort of discount here. And in Dynasty trades, I haven't seen. any low ball trades for Adunzee in high stakes leagues. They haven't existed. If anything, people have been trying to throw out things like the 105 and single QB a little bit later in Superflex trying to get the opportunity to take on Roma Dunez. So where are you at with Roma Dunezay right now? Yeah.

So I'll say first in Dynasty. I mean, he's going in between the rookie 103 and 104 by startup ADP right now. That doesn't, again, always translate to actual. trades in actual leagues. But I will say if you have the opportunity to just re-roll a Romo Dunezay for the 104, the 105, that can be a Ted McMillan who, to me, is a better prospect than Rome was, doesn't have like the issue of we saw him be not productive in year one. So, yeah, if any re-roll for Rome that is around that, I'm happy to do. Yes, everything you said about Ben Johnson and the upgrades that the bears are making, that does matter.

But yeah, I mean, kind of to your point, it's fairly priced in, especially in dynasty, but also kind of in redraft right now. I mean, just for perspective, this time last year, Jackson Smith and Jigba, who is like the pattern that everyone wants to match onto this, I think, he was a round six startup pick valued at like the 109 in a way better rookie class, right? So I definitely from a value perspective, I think Rome is a sell at least at current dynasty ADPs. And also, yeah, everything about Ben Johnson, I would say is mostly priced in. So I want to focus more kind of on the negative aspects of what we saw from in his rookie season because that still matters, right?

I will give him this. He did at least play all 17 games. that just playing every game is surprisingly predictive of like these larger FPG increases in year two. So that, I mean, that's like at least a point in his favor. But 8.6 fantasy points per game that's the same as like Rashad Bateman and Michael Wilson in their rookie seasons. 60 total catchable targets that is right between Rondale Moore and Jonathan Mingo in their rookie season. So obviously a lot tougher target competition. Caleb Williams was a notoriously inaccurate downfield passer as well, especially in terms of catchable target rate.

Rome had some kind of similar issues to Marvin Harrison in terms of just like the downfield outside usage, kind of low percentage plays. So there's a bit of that with him as well. I guess you're a little more reticent of the fact, or maybe that's the wrong word. a little bit more excited or optimistic, I guess, that the role can change because, of course, it's a new coaching staff. We saw O'Doonse be a lot more efficient in the slot. We know Ben Johnson loves his slot receivers.

Maybe that's like the dream as he kicks him inside and he is just so much more efficient like we saw in his rookie season there. So, yeah, I can see like a wide range of outcomes for Rome. But again, he's kind of another guy that I'll say especially in Dynasty, I'm just selling. I'm just getting off. I'm just taking, especially the 104 or the 105 for him. And those are

and there are actual trades that are at about that value recently that you can go look up on like Dynasty Daddy or Dynasty Data Lab as well. So that's kind of where I'm at with Rome. He's just not someone I'm super interested in.

I kind of get it more in Underdog where Wide Receiver kind of thins out pretty fast. and getting access to a starting Ben Johnson receiver at the wired receiver 25 is at least kind of decent. So I get it more there. But yeah, in Dynasty, I just think the alternatives are way too enticing. Yeah, now, and I'm sort of with you when it comes to Rome, way fewer Spike Week games than any of the guys we reference. Marvin Harrison Jr., Xavier Worthy.

These guys actually scored fantasy points. When it came to Adunze, we had two games where he was north of 20 points. He had one game with 15 points. And I understand there was all sorts of problems. But passing volume was certainly not one of them over the second half of the year in Chicago. We saw a big uptick there. DJ Moore benefited from it. Keenan Allen benefited from it.

But Adunzee, again, that was very inconsistent scoring there. And I know that there's always an argument that the next coaching staff is going to get things right. But I would just rather get DJ more. And DJ Moore, the cost is not that massive between the two in redraft formats right now, where DJ Moore again, like right around wide receiver 18, wide receiver 19 versus Rome, who's at wide receiver 25. And Mike Schope came on School of Scott when Scott Barrett was not around last week. That was a really good episode.

And we talked about early ADP in FFPC and Underdog specifically. And it's sort of like the opportunity cost for taking Roma Dunes. despite the wide receiver avalanche where all these guys go off the board. Like Roma Dunesay is going at just opportunity cost of the wide receiver spot, Ryan. He's going ahead on underdog of Rashi Rice, who obviously has some injury concerns, but it wasn't even, it wasn't even the same stratosphere in terms of their efficiency and their scoring last year. He's going ahead of Tet McMillan, who's going to, is our wide receiver one at fantasy

points for Brett Whitefield and myself. He's going ahead of Jordan Addison, who was really, really good last year as a wide receiver two in Minnesota dominated the scoring that Dunes A showed you last year, average over 15 points per game, going well ahead of guys like Cortland Sutton, who's a wide receiver one on his team, and D.K. Metcalf, who despite the concerns there, is certainly the wide receiver one in Pittsburgh. and then other positions on underdog, you're taking him ahead of guys like Jalen Hertz at the quarterback position. So there's there's, and then multiple running backs who are appealing. So in Dynasty, I think I agree with you. I'd rather take a chance on being wrong here and get a chance to recoup a really, really, really premium asset, potentially get like a Trayvon Henderson for my Roma Dunezay pick.

and get an elite potential running back. Or I wouldn't mind trading him to try to tear up in Dynasty. But in Redraft, again, like I was taking some early on Underdog, but he keeps moving up and up. Before you know what Roma Duns Day is going to be like wide receiver 22, and you're paying wide receiver two prices. So I'd rather just take DJ more and I'd rather make a dynasty pivot. I think we're finally in agreement here, Ryan.

let's throw the other year two wide receivers sort of in a bucket here. Ricky Purcell, Kiann Coleman, Xavier Luget, Jill McMillan, we can ignore. He did some really good things, but obviously with Chris Godwin coming back, sort of a slimmer pathway. Is Ricky Piersall just head and shoulders above all these guys in terms of a potential year to breakout or is there another guy that you want to sort of stand for here, Ryan? No, I mean, I'll prefer Pearsall definitely of that group, but I'll also say I'm slightly uncomfortable with the costs that you have to pay for him in all formats right now.

Wide Receiver 33 and Dynasty at around like the rookie 112. That's not horrible in, especially in the context of a wide receiver class where it's like you're weighing like him against maybe like a Luther burden at the 112. I don't think that's crazy to prefer Pearsall. but I will say like him being in the same round on underdog as a Joanne Jennings is just really shocking to me. I was tweeting about this a little bit before we went live, but in six games with Ricky Pearsall, Joanne Jennings, George Kittle, and Brock Purdy all on the field together. Pierceall averages 9.6 fantasy points per game.

Kittles at 14.2, Jennings at 13.5. Jennings above a 30% first-read target share there. clearly seeing the most usage. I understand that Pearsall's last two games of the season are kind of in everybody's mind, but again, one of those party was not even playing. Jennings was not running a full route share in that week 18 game either. So, I mean, I tend to discount, especially where it's literally a sample of one or two games where a guy dominates at the end of the year.

I'm kind of like, okay. But even just from an overall perspective, like there's nothing in. his rookie year statistical profile that makes me think like this is an obvious, obvious breakout, right? I mean, 1.45 yards per outrun in a Shanahan system that is literally designed to just juice the yards for outrun of every single receiver that we've seen been in it. Like, that's pretty disappointing to me. I think I think people forget that Pierceall, yes, he obviously wasn't there to start the

season, got shot, not his fault, obviously. but he did run 275 routes last year. It's not like Pearsall just came in at the end of the year for these three games, and that's all we've seen of him. We've seen him be on the field running routes, not commanding targets at all for a lot of his rookie year. So, yeah, I'm just kind of, I feel like I've just been throwing cold water on so many of these guys throughout the show.

But yeah, Piercell would be another one where I think that we're a little bit out over our skis, kind of on his cost in all formats right now. I'll quickly touch on Coleman. I feel kind of similar. He also has a lot of the same issues, but even worse as Marvin Harrison Jr., where it's just all this very deep, very outside usage that's not conducive

to fantasy success. The bill's also brought in Josh Palmer, who is arguably kind of better at that deep field stretcher role. I think that's like the main thing they brought him in for, which is concerning to me as well. And they extended, extended Khalil Shakir as well, indicating to me that they like Khalil Shakir and what he did last year.

So yeah, I agree with you. Keep going with Coleman, though. I mean, that was most of my take on Coleman. I mean, I can read off every rookie wide receiver since 2021 that had over a 15 average depth of target. It's Coleman and along with names like Jalen Hyatt, Trey Tucker, Anthony Schwartz, Dianney Brown, Jahan Dotson, Marvin Mims, and then like the only. only two hits are George Pickens and Devante Smith again. But those weren't like insanely massive crazy hits in year two, right? Those weren't like super needle moving year two breakout players for most people in fantasy.

So yeah, I think Coleman, he's at least cheaper than Ricky Pearsall. I'll give him that. But yeah, kind of another guy that I'm in a dynasty context, totally cool with like re-rolling for a second round pick right now. Yeah, I think the market sort of made Ricky Persol a sell. in Dynasty. And it's not a take I really wanted to have, Ryan, but I saw in a single QB league, him go for a 106. People are paying insane prices for Ricky Purcell in some high stakes formats. I think that it's sort of assumed that Ricky Purcell is going to take this massive, massive leap.

You bring up Joanne Jennings. Joan Jennings was better than him in every single metric last year. Jennings was also a more highly targeted percentage-wise than George Kittle. So, like, Jennings is a guy that Brock Purdy really liked. we were all over at fantasy points last year. I know Scott Barrett and yourself were super high on Jennings when Brandon Ayuk went down. We were absolutely right on that one. And it's sort of like Jennings is just sitting around and the market's being punitive on Jennings for his pre-20204 profile and production. Like that ship sailed.

Like Juan Jennings, he broke through. He's there. So for me, I think that the one wild card with Purcell is that they look at what they lost in Debo Samuel. and Ricky Purcell is not going to get all the manufactured rushing attempts, but maybe those manufactured rushing attempts where Debo led the league in in rushing attempts at the wide receiver spot, maybe those turn into let's get Ricky the ball around the line of scrimmage in creative usage for him where he becomes the manufactured touch guy.

And with his explosiveness and with his athleticism, that could really propel his fantasy ceiling, That's sort of me attempting to get in in Shanahan's head and try to, like, coach the team. So we can't bank on that. That's not necessarily going to be the case. But Purcell getting a bunch of screen passes, some manufactured rushing attempts, maybe run some smoke around the line of scrimmage. Like, that could amplify him.

But at the end of the day, I agree with you. I think I'd rather just take Joanne Jennings. And then in Dynasty, it's really worth kicking the can because Ricky Persol might get you a lot more than he. ever will in Dynasty. And certainly there's a chance that he gains Dynasty value this year, but there's also a chance that that early second round pick you could trade them for right now and Superflex ends up hitting really well. So I'm with you. I sort of would take the opportunity to re-roll. Ryan, let everybody know where they can find the article when it's coming out. And what else you have going on these days? Yeah. So I will have an article out just focusing kind of

on some of the predictive stats I've been talking about throughout this podcast, specifically with year two wide receivers, you'll be able to find that on fantasy points.com should be coming out. I would say within a week of this podcast or a couple days. We'll see how quickly I get through kind of the editing and everything. But yeah, very soon, look for that on fantasy points. com, year two wide receivers. And then, yeah, as always, you can find me on X at Ryan J.

underscore Heath. Yeah, and stick with us here at Fantasy Football Daily. I'm going to be bringing you podcasts like this multiple times a week. Also make sure you subscribe to School of Scott, Dynasty Points for more, Ryan Heath. All the podcasts, all of the content we have at Fantasy Points is going to help you become a better fantasy football player. And we're going to be the edge you need to win in fantasy football in 2025. We'll see you soon.