Fantasy Football Daily - 2025 Fantasy Football Rankings: RB1, WR1, QB1 & TE1 Final Leaders w/ Dave Kluge
Episode Date: July 4, 2025Use code SCOREMORE10 at checkout for 10% OFF any subscription. Dominate your league. Win more bets. Level up your game Who will finish as the top overall scorers in fantasy football for 2025? Dave... Kluge joins the show to break down his final RB1, WR1, QB1, and TE1 projections — and the reasoning behind them. We challenge traditional tier-based drafting and dive deep into identifying true league-winners. Hear our bold predictions, dark horse picks like De’Von Achane and Drake London, and one shocking take on Omarion Hampton. 🔹 Who’s this year’s QB1? 🔹 Can Jahmyr Gibbs or Saquon Barkley take the RB crown? 🔹 Will Ja’Marr Chase repeat at WR1? 🔹 Is it finally George Kittle’s year at TE? 💥 Plus, Dave gives his boldest take to close the episode. 🎙️ Hosted by Theo Gremminger Where to find us: http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy http://twitter.com/DaveKluge Join the Discord here: https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Fantasy Points Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #FantasyFootball #2025Rankings #DaveKluge #RB1 #WR1 #QB1 #TE1 #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
When planning for life's most important moments, sometimes the hardest part is simply knowing where to start.
That's why we're here to help.
When you pre-plan and prepay a celebration of life with us, every detail will be handled with simplicity and professionalism,
giving you the peace of mind that you've done all you can today to remove any burden from your loved ones tomorrow.
We are your local Dignity Memorial provider. Find us at DignityMemorial.ca.
The Dignity Memorial brand name is used to identify a network of licensed funeral cremation and cemetery providers
owned and operated by affiliates of Service Corporation International.
Identifying this year's top scores at every single position in fantasy football for 2025.
Theo Greminger, Fantasy Football Daily on the Fantasy Points Podcast Network,
rejoined today by Dave Kluge.
Dave Kluge came on this show maybe six weeks ago and you crushed it so hard that we're bringing you back already.
We're switching it up, though.
Last time we did our favorite picks and least favorite picks in each round,
we're going to do a follow-up on your show.
So you got to check out the third.
Football Guys channel for that one.
But Dave, like talking about these elite scores,
it seems like a simplistic,
simplistic thing to do.
But I think a lot of times we often get caught
somewhat ignoring the very top and having tears.
You ask a lot of fantasy analysts that you respect.
You'll say, hey, who's the top quarterback this year?
And they'll say, you know, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson,
Jaden Daniels.
And I like Jalen Hertz too.
That's my top tier.
And then you'll say, you know,
tight ends. Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, the top three, those are the top three you want.
But oftentimes, I think tier-based drafting, although there's a ton of benefits, it also gets us in a lot of
trouble. Time and time again, you see a gap between the top score at the position and the number two.
In some years, it's amplified. Last year, if you had Jamar Chase over Justin Jefferson,
you had a significant gap.
If you had Lamar Jackson over Josh Allen, you had a gap.
And if you had Lamar Jackson over any other quarterback,
you had a huge advantage, especially reflective to his ADP.
So my first question to you is your thoughts on tiers.
You somewhat agree with me here on this tiers-based drafting can be somewhat of a crutch for us
in misidentifying edges in fantasy football.
Yeah, I think that's a great way to put it.
And everybody does tier-based drafting right now.
I'm actually coming out with articles right now every single week where I'm going through position by position, breaking these players up in tiers, kind of talking about how my rankings compared to the consensus, talking about where they diverge and adding some context to that.
But you do fall into this trap.
And I don't say you.
I mean, you and me and a lot of drafters where you always want to catch the end of that tier.
And I found myself, you know, you mentioned it.
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jaden Daniels.
I think everybody lumps those guys in a tier together.
And I so often fell into this trap early in draft saying, like, well, I'm not going to draft.
I'm not going to draft Lamar Jackson because I'm just going to wait for Jaden Daniels, which is great because I think Jaden Daniels could realistically be the QB1 this year.
But then you're not getting any exposure to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson who have equally high ceilings.
And like we saw last year, Lamar Jackson was outscoring Josh Allen by two, three points per game.
And if you didn't have it that way in your rankings and you were just waiting to the end of that tier and taking Jalen Hertz or whoever you had at the end of that tier, didn't get any Lamar Jackson, you didn't have a chance of taking down the league.
Something else that we see now is that we're not seeing.
people pay up for the elite of the elite like they were in years past.
It was just two years ago where, you know, Travis Kelsey was going in round one.
And then in round two, you had Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson,
all kind of go in round two or that two, three turn.
Now with the edge from the elite guys getting pushed down a little bit,
it's not unrealistic to think that you could walk away from a draft with the number one
wide receiver, the number one running back, the number one quarterback,
and the number one tight end.
And that's not something that you've been able to do,
historically.
Yeah, I think that's an awesome, awesome point that you pointed out.
I think another interesting thing is over the years,
and it's something that I've continually said,
and I'm sure you agree with that the sort of the all-truest thing
that all great fantasy players share is not necessarily they all
drafted this league winner, but the willingness to put in time and effort
on the waiver wire all season long.
Like any league you're in, whether it's a home league or it's the FFPC main event,
you're seeing a lot of these players who you're like,
this guy kind of is up in the top of the standings every year in my league,
really annoying.
But it's a lot of times if you go and look at the waiver wire,
these same managers are putting the time and effort in.
But I think you make a great point that the pressure put on us to hit the waiver wire
and turn the back end of our roster goes down just so significantly.
if you can identify one or two top level scores.
If you have that sort of positional edge,
then you're absolutely gold.
And this year, I completely agree with you.
The wide receivers seem very appropriately priced.
And we're going to talk about some dark horses later.
But usually when we're looking for dark horses
to finish as the RB1 or the wide receiver one,
it usually stops in like the second round for me.
And I know the guy you mentioned is also routinely
a second round pick. But this year where quarterback's being drafted and to some extent where
tight ends being drafted, you could end up, you could end up realistically with three of the
top scorers on your team. So that's a wild, wild thing you said. So now all we got to do is we've got
to identify it. And we'll put a little bit of an asterisk on this one, Dave, because we are doing
this exercise on pre-July 4th. So we're doing this well before training.
camp. So we'll put a little asterisk on that. Let me ask you another question. A lot of times
you start seeing rankings come out, you know, my guys, all sorts of content this time of year.
Are people who stay set in their ways sort of doomed? This is a, this is a difficult one because we're
in the information age. You get so much information coming out from all these beat reporters.
There's film coming out from training camp. Should we be overly set in our ways?
and try to come up with preconceived rankings and targets this time a year,
or are we foolish if we sort of disregard some of the information that's going to be coming
our way over the next six, eight weeks?
I mean, that's just, it's such a hard question to answer.
And I think that it's really delicate balance.
And every analyst is going to do it a little bit differently.
I always kind of use the term that my rankings are a living and breathing document
from the time the Super Bowl ends until the next season kicks off.
And they're constantly getting adjusted.
I mean, I've got my rankings window open on my laptop.
24-7 and I am constantly just looking at it.
Nah, this doesn't feel right.
This feels wrong.
I think one of the things you don't want to do is overreact to small bits of news.
But there's also, like I said, it's a delicate balance.
Like when training camp comes out, it would be foolish to ignore what we hear in training camp.
I think this time of year especially is when you don't want to adjust too much.
Basically from like the end of OTAs to being a training camp, I don't think there's any news that comes out that's going to make me drastically change my rankings.
But once we start getting word in training camp, you know, like right now,
in OTAs. This is just a story that I'm pulling out of my mind. But, you know, Jack Bess was a guy who was drafted in round two. Dante Thornton was a day three guy.
But we're getting word that Dante Thornton, you know, he fits schematically with what the Raiders are looking for. He's practicing with the twos. That alone is enough for me because it makes sense schematically that they need an ex-receiver on this offense. So I move Jack Bish down. I move Dante Thornton up. Now, if we get into training camp and we get new reports that, hey, Jack Bish is actually looking really good. And he's practicing with the ones. I'll switch that again.
So it really is this tough balance.
And I know I'm just kind of talking in circles here, but I don't know if there really is a right answer.
You want to stay firm to your process, but you also want to adjust to new information that comes in.
And I think that every analyst is going to have, you know, that that that slider that they're going to move how much they are willing to adjust or not.
I think I stay pretty firm in my stances until training camp.
I think that's the valuable information we get.
I think everything from the draft until training camp is a lot of smoke and mirrors.
but if you're not changing to new information as it's coming in throughout training camp,
I think you're doing yourself a disservice.
Yeah, I think that's a great way of putting it.
And I think that having that balance where you've done your research,
you have sort of these set ideas,
but it's the willingness to be able to adjust even slightly.
And football is a sport where it's the collection of the parts,
especially on offense, where we'll see like a significant offensive linemen go down
with an injury. That needs to be, like, recognized by us as fantasy managers.
If a backup running back might go down, like we saw with Chase Brown last year,
if the number three running back is not ready to fill in that role, the volume can increase
for the starter. Like, there's a lot of nuance to this. I think the main thing is be able to shuffle
what's real and what's not. I mean, I like a good training camp video more than anyone.
I, of course, will get the hype machine going as much as possible.
on X. But at the end of the day, there's certain beat reporters we trust. There's certain teams that I think
are more trustworthy than others. And I think over the years, just be able to shift that through,
have a couple sources that you trust on the, like this, this fantasy analyst might be able to kind of
shuffle the news coming in, maybe better than others. Maybe it's somebody who just reports on
NFL that you trust a little bit more than others. But there's just so many voices,
you don't want to get inundated with like 30 different people's opinions. Like, have
a little bit of clarity, limit the voices, and take in the information.
We don't want to overreact to it, but when it's something meaningful, we want to react.
We're going to take, and last question for you, I ask you, we're going to identify the top
score at every single position, at least our prediction as of early July.
Which was the most difficult position for you to choose without revealing the player?
Running back for sure.
I think that you've got a pretty tight cluster of running backs.
And, you know, even when we start talking about the dark horse guys,
I could have grabbed some guys in round like three, four, and five that I think are dark horse candidates to finish at RB1.
That's such a volatile position.
And wide receivers, I think there's a handful there too.
But I think you kind of know the three that you would kind of expect to finish as the wide receiver one.
But running backs, that's a really, really tough one this year.
We are in this golden age of young running backs that are just taking the league by storm.
We're also seeing these guys in their second and third acts of their career now just rewining the clock.
and looking better than ever.
So this is a year where, you know,
you'd think that I'm sitting here talking about the depth of the running back room.
You'd think it would be a good year to wait on running backs,
but I actually do find myself in these first three rounds trying to draft one or two running backs
because I think that there's a lot of guys going in those first three,
maybe even four rounds that have just sky high ceilings where they can give you a 23,
24, 25 points per date.
Yeah, it's a great point.
And I think even if we didn't have this exceptional rookie running back class coming in,
the Ashton Genties of the world.
We'd still be really excited about the running back position.
And like you said, there's a number of young players all entering in year three that are
big time challengers for the RB1 overall.
And after this, we're going to reveal it.
All right, welcome back, Fantasy Football Daily.
We'll start out with Dave on this one.
You give us the most difficult position.
Let us know who the RB1 overall is going to be this year.
So I've got my RB1 this year is Sequin Barkley.
I mean, it's just a perfect match of a player who is in his prime right now.
And I know some people are going to get scared off being 28 years old, but people are also getting scared off by the touch count from last year.
But we're just seeing a guy that we know since he came into the league is just an athletic phenom, has always just been hindered by bad offenses,
offenses that he's been a part of in New York, now playing behind one of the league's best offensive lines.
I don't expect the offensive philosophy to change too much from last year.
They promoted from within.
So it's going to be a very similar office.
Nick Siriani is still the.
play caller over there, just a good player in the prime of his career on a good offense.
I can make arguments for a lot of other guys.
And I talked about it.
It's a very difficult position.
But Sequin Barclay is my RB one and I don't see anything happening outside of an injury that would move him off of that spot.
Yeah, I think Barclay is an interesting one.
And I'll pour a little bit of cold water on this one because he had 482 touches, including the Super Bowl.
So I think like the touch count, he's a next level guy.
And I think when it comes to Sequin Barclay and when it comes to Derek Henry,
they're just guys where they're sort of rule breakers, all the explosive runs,
the runs over 20 yards, the runs over 40 yards.
I'd say that the, the bull case for Saquan Barkley also involves maybe there's a willingness
to use him a little bit more as a pass catcher out of the backfield this year,
where we didn't necessarily see that last year.
And we've been waiting on a Jalen Hertz targets the running back a little bit
more type season. We didn't see it with DeAndre Swift. We didn't see it last year with Sequin
Barkley, but we know that it's in his bag. Maybe that's something where the team self-scouts and
says, we can keep Sequin a little bit fresher by maybe giving him four targets and taking
away like seven carries this game and just get him out in space, a little bit less stress on the body,
all that sort of thing. For me, I just think that there's going to be, you lose the
offensive coordinator in Philly with Kellynne Moore. To me, they win the Super Bowl.
There's going to be just a slight regression on the offense overall.
Sequin's still as good a bet as any to finish as the RB1 overall.
And I might look foolish for this one, but I think I am not going to predict Seacquan
on this one.
For me, I really, really, really wanted to make the case for Jemir Gibbs.
I've talked about this with Scott Barrett on our pod.
I've talked about this the other day.
I went on Dynasty Points with Thomas Tipple and Ryan.
Ryan Heath and Jacob Sanderson and Lucas Gilbert over here on the Fantasy Points Podcast Network.
And I made this bull case that you have the new offensive coordinator coming into Detroit.
Jemir Gibbs is a unbelievable special talent, maybe the most talented running back in football.
And maybe we see a situation this year where it was a little bit more Ben Johnson than it was Dan Campbell,
utilizing these two running backs almost at a 50-50 split with David Montgomery just siphoning off so many touchdowns from
Gibbs has more touchdown scored in his first two seasons as a pro than Barry Sanders.
I think that the receiving upside for him is like 70 receptions.
So I think in like the range of outcomes, I think Jemir Gibbs having a better season than any
running back did last year is in the range of outcomes.
But I just can't do it because I think like a lot of it with a lot of my enthusiasm for
Gibbs and I'm going to have a ton of him in drafts is Mice a little bit of hope casting and
wish casting away David Montgomery.
So I'm going to say that my RB one this year is Bejean Robinson.
And like, Bejon Robinson.
I'm doing a pivoting off of Jemir Gibbs.
And again, if I get a little bit of Dan Campbell saying you're going to see more
more Jemir Gibbs this year, if we get a little bit of John Morton saying we want to utilize
Jamir Gibbs a little bit more as a receiver, or if there's just any indication that
David Montgomery is not going to have that sort of full role, I'm going to.
going to adjust my rankings on this one. But when it comes to Bijon, I think I have a lot of
a lot of high expectations now for the Atlanta Falcons offense. I was really critical on
Zach Robinson last year during his start. And I completely take everything bad that I said about
him back. I think over the second half of last year, he looked like a really sharp play caller.
It's year two for Robinson. A lot of times we get super excited about these first year offensive
of coordinators, these first year offensive minded head coaches.
But it's actually your colleague, Sigmund Bloom, often talks about we sort of discount
how much better year two play callers can be.
Saw it last year with Todd Munkin, where Todd Munkin was fantastic, his first year in Baltimore,
even better last year.
I think it could be the case with Zach Robinson this year.
And when it comes to Bejohn, this was a player that we looked at as sort of a generational
talent coming out.
He was the eighth overall pick in the NFL draft.
We had that frustrating season with Arthur Smith, where he was a lot of.
a rookie. But the one big positive when he was a rookie was the 58 receptions, which we didn't know
was kind of in his bag coming out of Texas. That was a positive, especially considering it was
an Arthur Smith led offense. But last year, Bejohn, so many steps forward, he had nearly
2,000 combined yards, had nearly 1,500 rushing yards, had 400 plus receiving yards. That's now
back-to-back seasons where he goes north of 400 receiving yards. 60 receptions last year.
and 15 touchdowns.
And when we look at how Bijon Robinson played over the second half of last season,
Robinson didn't have a 20 point game in the first five weeks of the season.
And then after that, it was, it was just completely wheels up.
I mean, just ripping off 20 plus point week after 20 plus point week.
And the way that he closed out the season and the games with Michael Pennix at the end of the year,
24 points, 25 points, 32, or excuse me, 31 points.
So for me, Bijon Robinson has the receiving upside to catch 80 balls this year.
He's going to get 300 carries again.
I think that the threat of Tyler Algier is way, way more in the back.
Like with Arthur Smith, Algear's usage was unpredictable.
I think with Zach Robinson, he's just a true contingent play.
It's Bejohn Robinson season.
I think that there is a Todd Gurley, RB1 overall type outcome here in a Sean McVay type offense
where I think we could see Bijan average 25 points per game.
He's my bet as the RB1.
Your thoughts on Bejohn, where does he come in in your rankings?
And again, you know, we talk about tears and we talk about the danger of tears.
But all three guys that we've just talked about, Segoin and Barclay, Jimar Gibbs, and
Bejan Robinson.
That's why I've got them all in the same tier.
I've got them clustered back to back to back in my rankings.
I do prefer Jemir Gibbs slightly ahead of Bejan Robinson.
You know, we saw that he was productive last year when David Montgomery was on the field.
And then when David Montgomery got hurt late in the season,
that's when you saw Jemir Gibbs just take off and really hit his true ceiling.
So I think with Jemir Gibbs, you're looking at a guy who's basically giving you a top five, top seven floor and then has the huge ceiling if Montgomery does get phased out.
But I think that needs to be more of an injury thing because we can look pre-Benz Johnson.
And, you know, in 2021 before Ben Johnson was, or no, I'm sorry, there was a in 2020, we did see a split where Dan Campbell still did want to split up the running back touches a little bit.
but you talk about Tyler Alger and I think the frustrating thing is they only lean on him in the second
half which leaves meat on the bone for Bijon Robinson.
I mean, almost all of Tyler Algeo's touches last year came in the second half of games that
they were taking the lead.
I'd love to see if they would give those touches to Bejan Robinson because that could
raise his ceiling even higher.
So the usage for Tyler Alger is very predictable.
It's just in these games where they're up by two scores, they choose to lean on him instead
of Bijon, but really splitting hairs between these three guys.
Sequin, Jamir Gibbs and Bejohn, but I don't think he can go wrong with any of them.
Yeah, I think like for me, it's Sequin, it just, I don't, I have someone like underdog,
but when it's come to manage, and I obviously have some Sequan Barkley dynasty shares,
uh, that thankfully that I've held on to for a long time, like an ATM machine last year.
So, but, but with Redraft, I just haven't been clicking that button.
Uh, he's just going so highly. And again, I, I worry slightly about the amount of, of wear and tear that he
took on last year and just a sheer volume in the playoffs. So that might come back to haunt me.
I'm sure I'll end up with some Seekwon Barkley. And you're starting to see this where there's
these one-off drafts in like FFPC, NFFC, where Sequin falls to like the 106, 107. In that range,
I'll take them all day. It's just when it comes down to having to choose between a Sequan, a Bejan,
or Sequin and a Jamar Chase. I just can't pull the trigger this year. So again, it's pre-July 4th,
So I'm going to put a little asterisk on on the lack of Bsjean.
I mean, the lack of sake one.
Maybe I have a little bit later on.
Let's talk about quarterback.
Okay, we talked about this in the pre-show a little bit.
Last year, Lamar Jackson was this unbelievable edge.
Ended up having just a phenomenal season.
Does he repeat as this year's QB1 overall?
You know, I'd love if he did.
But it was just blistering efficiency last year.
And I think when you look at efficiency, you can always bank out of Lamar Jackson.
You know, you can't compare him to the median.
And he's always going to be one of the most efficient players in the NFL.
But at the end of the day, I mean, it was just almost impossible what he was doing last year.
You know, the team was 31st in pass attempts.
And he still was able to finish as the QB1.
And you know that you're getting this rushing upside for Lamar Jackson that really unlocks his ceiling.
But Josh Allen, this is just a team that runs more plays.
When they get near the goal line in Baltimore, they like to turn around and stick the ball in Derek Henry's belly.
When they get to the goal line in Buffalo, Josh Allen just kind of takes the ball out of the shotgun.
wait until he finds a little crease and just slams through like a battering ram.
So he's got some of the same touchdown upside that a guy like Jalen Hertz might have,
albeit doing it with his legs rather than getting pushed in.
But Josh Allen, you know, this is a guy who's been a top two QB for five straight seasons.
I'm a big Lamar Jackson fan.
You can see the jersey behind me right now.
But Josh Allen is my QB1 going into 2025.
Yeah.
And Josh Allen has just been, he's on like the Mount Rushmore of fantasy football
quarterbacks. He's just been so good and been doing it for so long.
finishes the QB2 overall last year. I think Buffalo, they have a great offensive line.
They made a few sort of like sneaky moves where not necessarily guys that are ever going
to be fantasy football relevant, but Josh Palmer, they add Josh Palmer, they add Elijah
Coleman. Keon Coleman's a year older. And obviously Kalil Shakir made some steps forward last year.
So like that offense has continuity, whereas last year there was so much turnover losing Stefan Diggs, losing Gabe Davis, like his longtime top two touchdown scoring wide receivers, both gone in the same year.
And Allen was still remarkably good.
So I think that's a great answer.
And I'll say for me, Dan, I had one more thing.
Oh, yeah, go to show him real quickly.
You know, he didn't see a little bit of dip in passing yard as last year.
And I think that a lot of people are going to say that like Stefan Diggs being out of the picture now is now, you know, a detrimental.
to Josh Allen. But I think knowing that last year, you know, still made a deep run in the playoffs,
was able to have, you know, win his first MVP trophy doing that without Stefan Diggs.
Now I think he goes in in 2025 with a little bit more confidence because that was such a huge
talking point in the off season. How was he going to fare without his wide receiver one?
Now he doesn't really have a wide receiver one, but he's kind of in this late career,
Patrick Mahomes type of point in his career where he doesn't need to have a Tyree Kill or
Stefan Diggs. He's comfortable enough spreading the ball around. And I think that's when you see the
confidence go up and we could see Josh Allen this year hit a ceiling that we haven't seen before.
Yeah, I mean, you make such good points for Josh Allen.
I should probably just pick Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson here and play it a little bit safer.
But at the end of the day, I've made the call that I think Jaden Daniels is the MVP this year.
He's the NFL MVP and I've said that he finishes as a QB1.
I've said it for like about six months.
I first said it on School of Scott.
Now Scott Barrett is as also like very much on the Jaden Daniels.
train. Chris Wecht, our projections guru over at fantasy points is also very much on Jaden
Daniels, has him projected to finish as the QB1. I don't like the Terry McLaren stuff. I mean,
we have about 20 days out, a little less than 20 days out from the start of training camp,
and there's been no contract worked out. But obviously, Terry McLaren, it just seems like a
commander for life type. So I think that we're going to see a deal get done at some point. I don't
like that. But I do like that Washington last year, Jaden Daniels scored the second most fantasy
points all time by a rookie quarterback. And he did so with like middling offensive line play
and a lack of a lack of weapons around him. It was a ton of Terry McLaurin. I'm actually
getting positive vibes with Debo Samuel. I think there's a lot of like these Debo looks fat type takes
on X. And it's just, but Debo to me looks good.
NFL players, they shed like 20 pounds every training camp.
Like how many guys show up out of shape all the time?
These are world class athletes.
Like they can get in shape in two weeks.
Yeah, we saw this like this week.
There's at the University of South Carolina,
Debo's working out with Xavier Leggett,
who's obviously a next level type athlete.
And Debo's looks awesome.
And there's like these bad angle pictures for Debo Samuel
where people will just gravitate towards them.
And Debo is always like thick.
And he's built like a running back.
but like I get positive vibes from the Washington beat reporters and also just by the moves that Washington chose to make coaching staff wise.
There's a lot of like Debo Samuel having sort of a bounce back here.
And even if Debo doesn't have a real renaissance, he's still a significant upgrade over what we saw at the wide receiver two position last year.
Washington lacked pretty much anyone who gave them anything yak wise.
Debo, of course, really strong with the ball in his hands.
I also think that the threat of Debo as a rusher is going to help them stylistically.
So I love what they did there.
Again, Terry McLaren complete vibes with Jaden Daniels.
I scored more touchdowns than any Washington commander slash Washington
F football team slash Washington Redskin.
Like franchise history, wide receiver he had the most touchdown catches last year.
So vibes there.
But it's really the offensive line improvements where they go out and get Laramie
Tunsell from Houston.
they draft Josh Connerly in the first round.
And we've seen this time and time again where quarterbacks get better between year one and year two.
Now, a lot of people are going to go gotcha in the comments and say, look at this.
The fantasy community is overrating a year two quarterback yet again.
Last year, you guys steamed up C.J. Stroud.
Last year, you guys steamed up Anthony Richardson.
Those are two of the worst picks ever.
So I think actually the recency bias that the year two quarterbacks failing at ADP actually,
actually sort of helps Jaden Daniels here.
There's going to be some apprehensive drafters
who want to gravitate towards the known.
And I'll say it's a dangerous game.
I'm playing so like elevating Daniels to QB1
because Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson go ahead of them,
but only about a round ahead of them.
And then you have Jalen Hertz and Joe Burrow
who go just behind him.
So there's cushion on either side
where you could dive into a guy that we've seen
score a ton for many seasons.
But with Daniel,
it's something about the jump from year one to year two historically for the truly elite players in fantasy.
We saw what happened with Patrick Mahomes going from year one to year two, wins the MVP.
Unbelievable year for Mahomes that season finished as a QB1 in fantasy.
Lamar Jackson, a part-time player as a rookie wins the MVP, finishes the QB1 and fantasy in year two.
I get a lot of parallels here with Jaden Daniels.
We also talk about second year offensive coordinators.
No, Burrow, another year two guy who.
All up in year two, yeah.
Yeah, that's a great, great call by you, by Joe Burrow.
And you get Cliff Kingsbury in year two, seem to vibe with Jane Daniels.
I think he also has the threat to lead the NFL in rushing yardage this year at the
quarterback position, which has sort of been cheat code.
We've seen that with Lamar for years.
Jaden Daniels is a true challenger to that, had nearly 900 rushing yards, big time
threat around the goal line as well.
And we could see the touchdown passes go from 25 to 35 quite easily.
So Jaden Daniels, my pick to be the QB1 overall this year.
I'm curious if you know off the top of your head what the MVP odds are because I really do like that call out.
Because we know that MVP is a very narrative driven award.
And I think if Jaden Daniels, you know, we've got the fatigue of Josh Allen winning it last year,
Lamar Jackson winning his MVP's.
I think that, you know, Mahomes would have to do something supernatural to win another MVP.
So I think Daniels being the young, exciting guy in Washington, you know, there's odds that could definitely make me entice the play.
place that bet for sure.
It's like plus it's like plus 850.
See you're not it's not it's good odds.
It's not monstrous like Lamar is plus 550.
It's a wide open MVP field.
All the guys you just mentioned, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, all in like that
plus 550 to plus 600 range.
Patrick Mahomes, of course, is naturally there plus 650.
And then Jaden Daniels at plus 850.
Interestingly, I like that.
Jalen Hertz is 20.
to one right now, which is interesting. Wow. Yeah. Yeah. I think that there might be an overcorrection by some of the ways. You might have to sprinkle that. You might have to sprinkle that one. Yeah. But yeah, Jane Daniels, man, just such a good player. I think the problem that I struggle putting him ahead of Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson is that I'm not getting those guys. And I want exposure to all three of these guys. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jaden Daniels. Realistically, I think all three of them have an equal chance of finishing as the overall QB1. I love the way Daniels plays and how that leads to fantasy points. Josh Allen is a different.
type of rusher. You know, he is going to pick up first downs. He's going to run through
defenders. He's going to score touchdowns. Jaden Daniels has that Lamar Jackson rushing ability,
where he can make people miss out in the open field. He can score from 85 yards out. And he gives
you that, you know, 1,000-yard rusher ceiling that I don't think you're getting from anybody besides
maybe Lamar Jackson and crazy to say, maybe Justin Fields, if he gets a full 17 games in New York
this year. But there aren't many guys giving you that sort of rushing output. So really the
strategy that I'm taking in drafts this year, and I don't want to get too off the rails talking
about draft strategy, but I like taking any of these guys, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or
Jane Daniels. Jane Daniels is the one I have the most of because he just so happens to be the
cheapest. But if I do miss out on those three guys, then I'm just okay waiting to like round 12,
because this is just such a weird year for quarterbacks. Like last year, we saw the Sam Darnolds
and the Baker Mayfields and these guys just, you know, that were final round picks
breaking out late in the year. And this year, when I start looking at the guys that are going
super late in drafts that you can get Justin Fields and J.J. McCarnell.
and Cam Ward and guys that I think have similarly high ceilings that can be top five, top 10
quarterbacks. It is tough to pay up for those middle round guys, but the upside you're getting
from these three in Lamar, Allen, and Daniels makes me more than happy enough to pay up for them.
Yeah, I completely agree with you. I think that elite quarterback is an edge right now in multiple
formats and I think that they're priced correctly to really, really deliver. Let's take a quick
break. We come back. You're letting us know who's going to be the tight end one overall this year.
All right, welcome back, fantasy football daily.
Tight end was interesting.
We've had back-to-back seasons where a rookie finishes as the tight end won overall.
Sam Laporta two seasons ago, last year, Brock Bowers.
On a per game basis, it was George Kittle who led all tight ends in points in points scored per game last year.
And of course, Trey McBride was excellent, was almost neck-in-neck with Brock Bowers.
So there's a number of candidates this year.
and it's a really feels like a really strong year for tight end.
You mentioned in quarterback sort of your draft strategy.
It feels like there's some really fun names behind these big three.
Not necessarily challengers to finish as a tight end one overall,
but guys that could have strong seasons and fantasy.
But we got to focus on who's going to be the tight end one.
Who is it going to be, Dave?
So for me it's George Kittle.
And kind of like you were saying,
where Jaden Daniels, who's going off the board as the quarterback three,
you've got him as your quarterback one.
right now George Kittle is going off the board as tight end three and he's kind of
at the last guy in that elite tier.
But it's crazy to me that I've got him ranked as my tight end one and I can consistently
get this guy in round four or five.
And I think that's where he deserves to be.
I mean, just an efficiency monster.
Like this guy is just number one in yards per route run almost every single year.
The usage has always been there just consistently top five, top 10 and targets per route
run and target share.
And now when you look at the changes to the offense this year, I mean, this has always
been a deeper.
George Kittle has been productive with Debo Samuel and Brandon.
Iyuk. Now they're going into the season with no Debo Samuel. Brandon Ayuk is probably going to be on the
men to start the year. The only target competition in the early season is Ricky Pearsall, who don't get
me wrong, I love Ricky Pearsall, Joanne Jennings. So this is the softest target competition that George
Kittle has seen in a long time. We know that they have the faith in Brock Bowers. You know, long term
Kittle is, you know, a scary guy to invest in. He's getting up there in age. We don't know how the 49ers
are going to look over the next few years. But in redraft, like looking just for the 2025 season,
is when we see tight ends at their absolute peak.
It's those like age 28 to 32 years or when we see tight ends looking really good.
And we'll see prolonged success into the mid to late 30s occasionally,
but I have no concerns about George Kittle getting up there in age.
I think one of the big kind of sliding door moments here in San Francisco is going to be
Chris McCaffrey.
If he's healthy, you know, he's going to gobble up a big chunk of the target chair and
take away from George Kittle a little bit.
But I look at it to start the season, he's going to be the number one player on this offense.
They're going to be running the offense through.
him. He's just a beast after the catch. He's heavily involved in the offense. He was a
tight on a tight on one on a per game basis last year. I'm excited about Brock Bowers, but a very
different situation now there with an added target competition, a new head coach. Now
they're going to run the ball a little bit more with Ashen Ginty. Tray McBride, love him as well.
His usage last year was unbelievable, but we've seen that they want to get Marvin Harrison
Jr. a little bit more involved as well. So while there's slight reasons to knock Bowers and
McBride, you can offset that with their age and say that they're still ascending.
But right now I just see a situation for George Kittle better than what he had last year.
And he's going even cheaper in drafts.
Yeah, I love everything you said about George Kittle.
And I've said that I think this is the year of the tight end.
On this channel, on this show, I had Andrew Erickson on.
We made sort of some bold predictions.
We talked about these tight ends.
I think all three of the big three get 17 points per game or more.
So I think it's going to be a vintage season for tight end scoring.
Kiddles is it really interesting because when you look at all the turnover at the wide receiver room for San Francisco and then you couple in losing this sort of weapon of mass destruction in Debo Samuel where they'd use him in like really creative ways around the line of scrimmage.
I think whoever sort of gets additional manufactured looks, manufactured targets is going to have a really strong fantasy season.
There's been arguments made for Ricky Purcell with that.
maybe Christian McCaffrey sees a return to his sort of receiving upside that we are used to from seasons
like 2022, 2023 for McCaffrey.
But I look at Kittle and I say, there's a range of outcomes where this is a guy that has had fewer
than 95 targets now for like five straight years and just been so efficient.
What if San Francisco gets a little bit more Travis Kelsey usage for Kittle?
and we see a season where he gets 120 targets.
We saw early in his career he had 135 target season,
and he scored 16 points per game.
That was his best season ever way back in 2018.
And just getting him additional targets would take him into this next level
stratosphere.
That being said, I think Kittle might be the best ADP value at the tight end position on
underdog.
Right now he goes as 44 overall.
But I think that the tight end one is going to come from,
one of the two elite target earners in Bowers and McBride.
I know you bring up the additional target competition,
but what Brock Bowers was able to do last year at 21 years old,
where he basically was Pukina Kua,
but playing the tight end position was just unbelievable.
And I think there's room to run for him.
This is going to be the best quarterback play he's ever played with in the NFL in
Gino Smith.
He's still the number one here.
Last year, he had 153 targets.
I think he goes north of 165 this year.
I think Brock Bowers and Trey McBride both break Zach Ertz's target record, and they both go north of 160 this year.
So I'm really sort of making a case for McBride as well.
But like you said, when it comes to McBride, you do have the threat of Marvin Harrison, Jr., where I don't have that in Vegas.
I think Jacoby Myers is a fine, fine player, but I think he's a capped ceiling type, low end wide receiver two, high end wide receiver three.
With Marvin Harrison Jr., it's like a wide range here where.
he could become way more efficient and be a wide receiver one this year.
And at the very least, I think you see fewer just dud games from Harrison Jr.
So I love McBride, but I think it's Bowers.
I think the peak season for Bowers, he's the only one of these tight ends that I mentioned
that I think has 20 points per game in the wheelhouse.
And we haven't seen a tight end get a 20 point per game season since Travis Kelsey.
I think Bowers is it.
And the Ashton Genty edition, obviously,
I think Gentie is going to get a ton of touches.
But I think that the pace of the Chip Kelly led offense and the addition of
Ashton Genty is just going to make them so efficient.
So I'm baking on the talent.
I'm baking on just an unbelievable player.
And I'm baking on this offense being able to produce a high-end wide receiver
one like score at the tight end position in Bauer.
So Brock Bauer's for me.
Yeah.
And it's really hard to argue against anything you're saying there.
I think when I look at the quarterbacks,
those guys have been set in stone for me where it's been Alan,
Lamar Daniels all offseason.
I've got the same tier where I've got three guys at top my tight end rankings.
And when the season first ended, it was Brock Bowers because I was just blown away with
what he did his rookie season.
And then I start looking at some of the usage metrics.
And I get a lord by Trey McBride, who pulled over a 29% target share last year.
You fold his target share and the wide receivers.
He was sixth overall in target chair last year as a tight end.
So then I moved Trey McBride to top the list.
And then I started thinking about it a little more.
And I go, man, George Kittle, you look at the changes in the San Francisco
offense and the passing game is really going to run through him.
And I moved him.
So I've constantly been shuffling these three around, and I really don't think that there's a right answer.
I think all of these guys, similarly to what I said about the quarterbacks, could easily finish as the overall
tight end one.
The nice thing in drafts, though, is you don't have to pay up for Kittle, the way you have to pay up for
McBride and Bowers.
And you said that he's one of the best values in drafts.
I completely agree with that there.
This might change before kickoff, but right now I just see, you know, when you start looking at
projections and where the ball is going to go in San Francisco, it's really easy to,
set George Kittle up for a career high in targets this year.
And if he can maintain or even take a slight dip off of that efficiency,
he could still be, you know, an 18, 20 point per game score.
Yeah, I love all three.
I think all three are really edges for you.
And I think investing in the top three at the tight end position is a good strategy this year.
So it's a vintage year at the tight end spot.
And we butt heads on this one.
We're in agreement on who the wide receiver one is.
We're going to reveal it right after this.
All right.
Welcome back. Fantasy Football Daily.
This one, I wanted to go bold, but how can you go bold here?
Right. How can you go bold?
Yeah. You know, you look over the last three years and it has been Justin Jefferson finishing
as the wide receiver one and the next year we drafted him as the wide receiver one and he didn't finish that way.
And then Ced Lee Lamb finishes the wide receiver one.
We drafted him the next year as the wide receiver one and it didn't finish that way.
So now, of course, Jumar Chase coming off of a wide receiver one season, we're all drafting
him as the wide receiver one and expecting him to buck that trend.
But this is another one where I think you look at Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase,
C.D. Lamb. All of these guys are great players. I don't think you can go wrong with any of them.
But they're just, you know, this is the perfect storm for Jamar Chase, just a phenomenal player on the peak of his career right now, on a great offense with a good quarterback and maybe the worst defense in the league that leads them to these games where they're just forced to air the ball out.
Joe Burrow was thrown for 400 plus yards. So Jemar Chase is the pretty obvious answer for me. But again, don't be surprised if, you know, Justin Jefferson or C.D.
lamb are able to claw their way to a wide receiver one finish this year.
Yeah, I mean, there's a number of strong candidates.
And I could have gone super bold.
I think, like, to be very simplistic, the number one scoring wide receiver for the last
four years has led the NFL in targets and receptions.
And also, I think that the number one wide receiver has led the league in end zone targets
on an even longer streak than that.
So, like, that's a really safe bet.
And when you start naming these guys who we think could lead the league in targets and catches, it extends down a little bit.
I think Pukua is an interesting bet this year.
But he hasn't had the peak touchdown season to sort of support a fantasy breaking type outcome.
But when we look at Jamar Chase, it's really hard to move away from him.
I also look at the spike weak ability of Chase where even if Chase, Chase, Chase could be like the wide receiver three and then have a two-week stretch.
and he's gaping the field as the wide receiver won.
Last year he had three of the highest scoring weeks in fantasy football.
Three of the 11 highest scoring weeks in fantasy were Jamar Chase weeks.
He had a 55 pointer.
He had a, what is it, a 45 pointer and a 41 pointer.
And then you go back to 2023.
He was also had a top 10 scoring week.
I mean, like Jamar Chase is just unbelievably efficient.
I think that a lot of people chasing for a different name this year look at history.
and say how difficult it is for a player to maintain their wide receiver one overall status.
And I get it.
But Chase has just been this Teflon player who's the fifth overall pick in 2021.
He's just turned 25 years old.
He's the highest paid wide receiver in the league.
And we talked about like the exigent circumstances surrounding players and how it affects
them in fantasy.
We think on paper Cincinnati looks like a shootout team again.
there's some question marks on defense.
It seems to me like you're going to get a lot more Joe Burrow shootout environments.
Jamar Chase had 175 targets last year.
Like Chase is just such an easy click.
I mean, he's my, and he's my number one.
Like I did my top 50 rankings at fantasy points.
Jamar Chase was easily the number one there.
I take him number one, an underdog.
I take him number one in FFPC, NFFC.
Any format I'm taking Jamar Chase at the 101.
In Superflex drafts, he's the highest drafted non-quarterback for me.
I consider taking him at like the 104 right after the big three quarterback.
So like I don't think we need to get cute on this one.
I think it's to Mar Chase.
Anything to add on Mr. Chase?
I mean, he's just like a perfect NFL wide receiver.
There's not a thing he can't do.
Like he's got Debo Samuels after the catch abilities and Justin Jefferson's contested
catch abilities and Tyree Kill Speed and CD Lamb route running abilities.
I mean, this guy literally can do it all, whether he's getting balls deep downfield,
whether he's pulled down contested catches in the end zone or whether he's taking a slant to the house.
I mean, he's just a perfect wide receiver.
And like I said, the situation with Joe Burrow and the Bengals defense, perfect wide receiver in a perfect situation.
Sure.
Like we can get cute and talk about other players.
But, you know, history tells us that he probably won't repeat.
But I'm not making a bet on anybody else with the 101 besides Chase.
Yeah, it's Jamar Chase.
And we've seen it before.
Cooper Cup could have repeated as the wide receiver one.
He had, of course, got injured.
but he was leading the league in points per game at the time.
And we go back to the Antonio Brown years.
Antonio Brown was just ripping with multiple seasons as the wide receiver one overall.
So like go back in history.
It's happened again.
Just bet on Jamar Chase.
Question for you, like we talked about dark horse candidates.
Give us a dark horse candidate that's not necessarily a player you mentioned that you think could end up finishing as the top score at their respective positions.
So when we talked about running backs, we talked about.
Sequin Barclay, Jamir Gibbs and Bijon Robinson kind of being in this tier of their own,
I have Devon A-chan right behind them.
And I kind of debate sneaking him into that tier as well because what we've seen from Devon A-chan are two very different seasons so far in his NFL career.
But they have both been very, very productive.
And I like to see that.
You know, as a rookie, we saw this guy with one of the most efficient rushing seasons in NFL history.
And we got really excited about his opportunities as a rusher and what he could see with, you know, an expanded workload.
then going into year two, we saw his usage changed drastically as a rusher.
They were just slamming in between the tackles.
He wasn't getting those zone runs out wide where he's able to make the big plays.
But he was able to offset the dip in efficiency as a rusher by becoming just a target magnet out of the backfield and really patting his numbers with the receiving profile.
So now I look at him as being, there I say, kind of situation proof.
Like if they're winning, they're going to get the ball to him and he's going to run the ball a lot.
We know that he's got the efficiency as a rusher.
If they're down, he's going to be used consistently out of the backfield where they put this big importance on getting the ball out of his hand quickly.
So whether it's a rusher or as a receiver, he can check both boxes.
We've seen that he's got one of the best breakaway speeds in the NFL.
We've seen that he can catch passes.
This is a guy that is just getting overlooked.
I understand people get excited about, you know, if Christian McAfree stays healthy or what Ashden Jinzee can do.
But Devon A-chan is getting, you know, consistently falling to that two-three turn.
And I think he's got, you know, close to as good of a chance of finishing his,
overall RB1 as those guys do in that elite tier.
Yeah, I think he's definitely my favorite second round target at the running back position.
I love Devon H.N.
What's interesting is I read a report from Joe Shad in Miami today that the yards per carry,
they want to get back a little closer to the rookie year where they're going to use him
a little bit more as an inside runner, which, you know, he's a, he's a smaller player,
but he's such a powerful and explosive runner on the inside.
Go back to like the Texas A&M tape, he was so good on those.
sort of runs and then go back to his rookie season where he had like a next world like 7.8 yards
per carry or something.
He was ripping long runs up the middle.
So that's interesting to me.
I completely agree with you.
I think he leads all running backs in receptions.
I said on another show,
I think he'd get 100 receptions this year.
The only trepidation that I have, if there's any, is slight apprehension on the Miami
Dolphins offense overall being able to support it.
But I think eight chance, especially.
Office of line, yeah.
And I'm going to have Scott D. Benedetto on School of Scott.
He's our offensive line guru.
He had Miami very lowly ranked in our top 32 offensive line collection.
So I'm going to try to pick his brain a little bit, look for that on School of Scott.
But A chance just, it's an exceptional talent, exceptional receiving profile.
And the loss of Jonu Smith, I think bodes well for if they continue the get the ball out of
to his hands quickly, offensive model that we saw last year,
A-chan can catch 100 balls this year.
So I love that call.
I'll throw out Drake London.
I've talked about just the,
just very, very simply identifying a player who could lead the NFL in targets and catchings.
And I think that's Drake London.
I love Drake London.
I think he's a really great value in the second round.
And we saw a 39% target share in the games that Michael Pennick started last year.
So I think that Atlanta, like we talked about Bijon Robinson,
and I'll talk about Drake London.
I think this could be a very consolidated and really, really strong teammate consolidation where both of these guys finish like top five scores at their position.
But even a step further, I think they both challenge for like towards the top.
With Drake London, I think he's going to be efficient in the red zone as well.
And he's got youth on his side.
I'm not betting on it.
There's no reason for you to reach on Drake London.
But when he is there in like the middle of the second round, I think he makes for a really, really strong pick.
your quick thoughts on London.
I think that this is just a perfect wide receiver quarterback pairing.
I'm not sure if I've talked about it with you this offseason,
but when I go back and watch those games together,
where they played together,
Michael Penix was just allowing Drake London to do what he does best,
which is just make plays on contested balls.
And if you look at what he did in college,
he was doing the same thing with Romadunes and Jalen Polk
and Jalen Macmillan, he isn't afraid to trust his receivers.
And that's something that Kirk Cousins hasn't really done throughout his career.
You look, the receivers that have done well under Kirk Cousins,
It's always been the guys that can separate and kind of get open out on an island and he's able to hit them.
But Michael Penix, there was one play specifically that jumped out to me where he had a contested ball that he threw deep into the end zone and it got broken up by Gavin Bartholomew, went back to the huddle, ran the same exact play on the next snap.
He's the same exact coverage in the end zone.
Pettix threw it up to him again.
Drake London came down with a deep touchdown.
And I think that's what gets me so excited is Drake London.
People can pick apart his separation and his abilities to do that.
But his strengths are as a contested catch guy.
and Michael Penix does not shy away from throwing the covered receivers.
So I could see Drake London easily having 18, 20 touchdowns this season,
just on that, you know, thesis alone.
I'm here for it, and I got the bags of Drake London that would really love that
outcome that you're talking about, Dave.
Give us one big bold prediction, any position, any level of the draft.
I love getting these bold predictions in this time of year.
Give us something spicy.
Yeah, I'll bring some real heat on this one.
I don't think O'Marion Hampton is going to be a top five rookie running back this year.
And I know, like, you know, he's got the first round draft capital.
I love his long-term outlook.
You're looking at a good run-first team with a good offensive line.
I understand why there's reason to be excited about Omarian Hampton.
But Najee Harris is not a guy that NFL coaches like.
And I know that we as fantasy analysts looking at the efficiency metrics and all this just can't stand Najee Harris.
But there's a reason that they paid him money to be in Los Angeles.
There's a reason that he consistently saw the touches that he.
did in Pittsburgh. He doesn't have the breakaway speed that we like, but he is not a liability in
the run game. He's going to move piles. He's going to take a three-yard gain and turn it into a
four-yard gain. And that's what gets NFL player snaps. So when I look at some of these other guys,
you know, I like Omarion Hampton better as a prospect that I do some of the other guys.
But Trayvon Henderson, you're telling me that this guy's going to have the past catching role
in the Josh McDaniels offense. I want that. Caleb Johnson, you know, he's basically a souped up
Naji Harris that's going to be dropped right into that role. I like that. Quin Sean Judkins,
he's going to see a ton of touches in this Cleveland backfield.
It might not be pretty, but I think that he's going to be able to volume his way to a better season than Omarian Hampton.
So I like O'Mari and Hampton.
I like his long-term outlook.
And he could still be a good draft pick because I think that as the season goes on,
he can carve out a bigger and bigger role.
But right now I've got him ranked as the fifth running back out of the rookies this year.
Dave, you're killing the Omari and Hampton bag holders, including myself with that one.
But you crushed it on the show today.
Let everybody know once again where they can find your work.
work. Yeah, everything's over at Football Guys. I've got the Football Guys Fantasy Football Show I'm doing with Alfredo Brown. Football Guys Dynasty show that I'm doing with Jeff Bell.
I've got the launch pad, which is a solo show coming out every single week. Fio, our episode is going to come out Friday, July 4th. So be sure to check that out on audio platforms for anybody who wants to.
I've also got a best ball live stream that we're hosting over on drafters. That's going to start next week with Dan Hendry, who was last year's $500,000 winner.
So staying super busy over at Football Guys.com. Yeah, make sure you check out all of Dave's work. And make sure you stick
with us here at Fantasy Football Daily. Check out School of Scott, Dynasty Life as well.
We're going to help you crush your leagues this season.
