Fantasy Football Daily - 2026 Fantasy Football 1st Round Predictions | Why 2025 Rankings Are Already Obsolete w/ John Daigle

Episode Date: July 18, 2025

Use code SCOREMORE10 at checkout for 10% OFF any subscription. Dominate your league. Win more bets. Level up your game On this episode of Fantasy Football Daily, Theo Gremminger is joined by Jon to look one full year ahead — predicting the entire first round of 2026 fantasy football drafts. From Bijan Robinson to Brock Bowers, we break down the next wave of elite fantasy assets and why some of today’s top names (like CMC) might be on the way out. Who will be the first QB off the board in 2026: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or can Jayden Daniels crash the party? Which new offensive coordinators or "smartest-man-in-the-room" head coaches could become breakout influences like Ben Johnson? We dive deep into scheme, breakout offenses, and the latest tiered best ball rankings and season preview content. 🔑 Key Highlights: Full 2026 1st-Round Prediction (Achane, BTJ, JJ, Puka & more) Sneaky dark horse picks (Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey) 3 straight years of 27-year-old RB1s — will Saquon or Achane continue the trend? Theo’s bold 2025 prediction + Jon’s honorable mentions Where to find us: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠http://twitter.com/notJDaigle Join the Discord here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Podcast Transcription Here: https://podsqueeze.com/embedded/transcript/id2dSqHLA4Y9kAnw8WYzTp Fantasy Points Website - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ NEW! Data Suite - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://data.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ #FantasyFootball #2025Rankings #DaveKluge #RB1 #WR1 #QB1 #TE1 #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Which players will become first round selections in the 2026 first round. Theo Greminger, Fantasy Football Daily here on the Fantasy Points Podcast Network, joined by a repeat guest, my friend John Daigle. And instead of talking about this season, we're going to talk about next season. And John, I always think like being a year ahead on players, sort of seeing which way this game is going to go instead of looking back at what players did last year can be super beneficial. going to do that in multiple ways this year. But this is a sort of a very different podcast and anything you've done recently.

We're talking 2026 first round. How fun is this? Lots of fun. And it's about that time, too, where these are the items we're diving into. Everyone wants to know the sleepers, whatever that terms mean across the board now. Everyone wants to know how to approach their 2025 home league. So when you're starting to ramp up this type of content, it's that time of the year, especially with the first preseason game happening somehow and at the end of July.

Yeah, it's right around the corner. We're recording this on Monday, but Wednesday officially marks 50 days out from the fantasy football season, the start of the NFL season. So it's really ramping up, a lot, a lot of fun. Let's take a step back here. We're going to talk about players today. And I think by trying to predict the 2026 first round, you know, and we're not going to do something bold.

It's not like we're going to come out here and say, Jeremiah Love is going to be a first round pick. We're not going to try to go bold like that. If it's going to be only players that will be veterans, so the rookies on this year, no incoming rookies. But when we take a step back and we stop looking at players and we start looking at teams, we can often find that single team or team that or multiple teams that are producing just ADP winners across the board.

It happens every single year where there's, that one offense where for whatever reason, they're underrated by the fantasy community and just produce multiple, multiple winners. I think there's some interesting candidates for it this year, and there could be multiple ones. Who's a couple of teams that you have your eye on or a specific team that you think people will look back around midseason and say, I wish I drafted more players from this team? The first one that comes to mind that honestly doesn't even have much values, but I do think that they will produce much higher than their ADP expectations are the Cowboys, if only because of what happened last year, with Dak Prescott playing roughly half of a

season. But we saw Prescott have career lows across the board. Touchdown rate fantasy points per game when just go back to 2023, he finished second an MVP boating behind Lamar Jackson, and he was the QB4 in points per game. So the fact we're now getting this discount all because he was injured. it was an entirely different coaching staff. C.D. Lamb didn't show up to OTAs or training camp since he was a holdout, and their rapport was very clearly off from the very beginning.

And then for all the games, they happened to overlap. So yeah, between Dak Prescott, C.D. Lamb, George Pickens being added to the mix, even if he stuck to his usual nine go route route tree. We were talking about having far more accurate targets downfield, probably the most accurate in his entire career than what he's dealt with last year. from the Steelers and honestly for his entire career to this point. So I think Dallas's passing game as a whole is one that is going to definitely score higher than what ADP suggests. The other one, the one I would say where everyone is a value right now.

So it's pretty easy to tack them all on is the Patriots. And that's just because of all the changes that have happened so far. 31st in ESPN's past block win rate metric last year. Then they went out immediately under Mike Vrable added a veteran right tackle. and Morgan Moses, drafted Will Anderson number four overall to play left tackle and added center Garrett Bradbury as well. Basically,

remaking, reshifting their entire offensive line ahead of Drake May, who already showed us in his 10 full starts, averaged just over four extra rushing points per game. Now you also talk about the additions in their surrounding cast that help elevate May and Stefan Diggs for whatever that's worth, healthy from the slot, and Kyle Williams,

who they drafted number 69 over. all, and I believe could be a true sleeper, especially in home leagues where you're going to get them in the last round. So those are the two offenses I'm really focusing on and maybe we'll sprinkle in some more as the show goes along. Yeah, New England's, New England's one. I had this conversation with John Hanson last week on this, this exact show. And John had a few really, really interesting answers, but New England is one that I circled as well. It just feels like if Drake May hits, he's going to carry multiple ships with him. Yeah. You mentioned how cheap the wide receivers are. Stefan Diggs is 31 years old, but he's priced to hit. Kyle Williams could be

their explosive big player, a player. And I think if one of those two wide receivers doesn't hit, I think Hunter Henry could be a back end, tight end one, sort of a boring one, sort of like last year's Zach Ertz kind of level player, but he'll definitely hit above his weight class in ADP. And I think Trayvion Henderson's the really interesting one. Talked about Will Campbell, Jared Wilson, Morgan Moses. They've made big improvements on that O line. Henderson could be like a skeleton key player for us in fantasy if he inherits the lion's share of the targets, the running back targets there,

because we've seen Josh McDaniel offenses sort of carry that kind of player. So I like Trayvon Henderson a lot. He's I think he's a fun click. And I think New England's a great answer. Follow up on your Dallas comment. Is there a particular running back that you're looking to draft in Dallas? Are you sprinkling it like in your best ball exposure between Javante Williams and Jaden Blue, maybe sprinkle a mile.

Sanders, are you taking a strong stance and saying, this is the one if I'm going to attack the running back position in Dallas? I still think the margin of ADP discrepancy is incorrect in favor of Miles Sanders, and that everyone is just assuming Javante Williams is the de facto RB1, when even in offseason activities, they split first team reps. And so the fact that you can get Miles Sanders three, four rounds later, that has made me click Miles Sanders more so far. But when we get to more 14, 16 team leagues for home leagues, I'll probably just suggest to wait out Jaden Blue.

Since Blue, we at least have the argument that, one, his strength is past catching. So that already gives him multiple outs to get there over Javante and Miles. But also, we don't know Jaden Blue's resume. You and I have talked about this in the past on the offseason shows that Jaden Blue just didn't receive a hefty amount of touches in college because he was always behind someone important. an NFL player, Roshan Johnson, Bejohn Robinson, Jonathan Brooks. And so, yes, that could mean he didn't earn those touches. And the Texas coaching staff was correct and not highlighting him.

But also, what if he was just boxed out because he played behind very, very good players? And suddenly when he does get 100 plus touches, he's an explosive player himself. So I'll cross my fingers in those deeper leagues and take a shot on Blue. I'm completely with you on Jaden Blue. I've seen some smart people, some smart high stakes drafters that we know kind of loading up a little bit on Javante Williams. It just feels like not really an edge pick where you're going to end up with a purgatory value you don't really want to start any week.

I could see Javante Williams giving us a running back 28 season or running back 30 season, but it's not going to be impactful. If I get Javante, if I get Jaden Blue and I get eight starts out of him in the second half of the season, he's a very good pass catcher. And he also, like, it's not even close in terms of explosiveness and speed versus Sanders, Williams, and Blue. Blue is like a 4-3 flat or faster type player. Caught a lot of passes at Texas. Just could be a really fun kind of in that early career Tony Pollard type role in that offense like we were used to seeing back in Dallas. So I'm with you.

I had Blue as a zero and hero RB Target in the article I just dropped. So we're together there. Now, we had two huge hires sort of for fantasy football. We had multiple interesting offensive hires fantasy-wise this year. You had multiple guys from the McVeigh-Shannahan tree. You had multiple and now Dan Campbell tree slash Ben Johnson tree hires. But specifically, I think the two coordinators that both fall in this category that get us super excited this year were Ben Johnson and Liam Cohen. Those two guys were like the talk of fantasy last year.

And for Johnson, it was really a multiple year sample size where they just had smartest man in the room type vibes to them. They were looked at as offensive coordinators who elevated offenses were innovative, were aggressive, and were surefire head coaches. And lo and behold, they end up getting hired hired. I think that happens a lot quicker than people can anticipate, John. there might be a coach right now who takes a huge step forward this year as an OC and next year is hired as a head coach. If you're trying to pick the next like relative offensive coordinator genius in the NFL that is going to be fast track for a head coaching job, who would that be?

My two candidates are one, Zach Robinson for the Falcons, if only because he was clearly limited and what he was trying to. do, even though upticking, unsurprisingly, everything in terms of passing volume and rates from Arthur Smith the year prior, but still the Falcons were limited in offense because of Kirk Cuthers' injury that lingered well into the point where he was benched. And so now with Michael Pinnock, so I do believe as not only a dark horse candidate for 4,500 passing yards, but also to outright lead the league in passing yards, just because of what the Falcons are not bringing to the table on defense as well against what Warren Sharp has shown. is a top three easiest passing schedule based on last year's defensive metrics that the Falcons are about to face.

I think Michael Pennis is really a sleeper here at quarterback and thus will naturally elevate Zach Robinson and get him a lot of attention on the open market next off season. The other one is, as I mentioned for everything about the Cowboys passing game, I do think Brian Schottenheimer is a joke. In terms of X's and knows, I think he's outgoing and will be and has done. been the few times he's been a play caller horrific at X's nose in the NFL. Having said that, the Cowboys are so top-heavy that I think they will not allow him to fail, especially against a top five easiest schedule in the league, again, based on last year's defensive metrics. CD-Lam, Dat Prescott, George Pickens can easily, plus superstars on defense that include Michael Parsons, can easily elevate this team in the regular season to 10 to 13 wins. And that will then,

as the NFL does, they usually just chase what was good the year prior. That will then cause a not only a run towards the Cowboys coaching staff, which I also think is undeserving of being in this conversation, but they will also be leaning towards the rest of the NFL culture coaches since that's what Schottenheimer is. He's not known for his play calling. He's known for everything he's doing the offseason and team building. And so it's going to lead to like a group of clowns basically being hired as

offensive coordinators and head coaches next offseason that believe in team building and putting a ping pong table in the locker room as opposed to actually like team building from the top down like Bill Parcells would do. So I think the Falcons and Cowboys are about to probably about this offseason go into there changing the way the NFL thinks about team building. Zach Robinson was my answer and I think you're spot on with it. He's set to succeed this year has a fantastic running back, a terrific wide receiver one, and a very good wide receiver, too, in Darnell Mooney. Everything's sort of set up there.

Pennix, like you said, I also am optimistic about, I don't know if Pennix is necessarily going to be a guy in our fantasy lineups, but I think he's a winner that can elevate multiple players to really strong finishes. I think it's going to be a very consolidated offense, too, for us in fantasy. But Robinson checks off so many boxes. It's the McVeigh tree. he's 38 years old. And when Atlanta hired him, he had opportunities to go multiple places showing that the league was already sort of in on Zach Robinson.

I'll say for me, it's it's the old guy. And it's Todd Munkin where people last year, I talked about Todd Munkin, if Todd Munkin was 38 last year instead of 58 last year, I mean, this guy would have had teams lining up for him. And I think the notion that it's just Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry, like, of course, it's the talent on Baltimore. But Todd Munkin has been an absolute machine. He's 59 years old. But I think this year, if they have another number one or number two overall offensive finish, another deep run in the playoffs, I think someone's going to say, let's hire Todd Munkin. And to his credit, we saw Lamar Jackson have his best passing season ever. and he's been able to incorporate multiple players in this offense and also deal with attrition in multiple years where last year we saw, of course, Mark Andrews go down,

went down the year before. So he's been able to sort of roll with the punches. And besides Ben Johnson, like last year, no one was scoring more than the Baltimore Ravens. And this year, I think they're my bet to have the best offense. So he's an old guy. It's hard to get excited about the old guys, and it's hard to get excited about a six-year-old being hired.

but Munkin might force his way into a head coaching situation. We're going to take a quick break. We come back. We're talking about 2026 and how the first round is going to look. What's up? I'm John Hansen. Best Ball is back and it's only at Draft Kings. And there's 15 million reasons to be excited.

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Welcome back, Fantasy Football Daily. And, John, this time of year, you start putting out really awesome podcasts. A big shout out to the work you did with established the edge throughout sort of the draft process. Now I know Mike Leone's been doing that one, but you're going to be over on the Establish the Run podcast with Evan Silva and Adam Levittan. What do you guys have planned for the rest of July and into August? It is that time to start diving into season long strategy. So there's a lot of things that we are launching very soon, but I will suggest that everyone at least to get started, tune into the free, as you said, Establish the Run podcast feed where, yes, Silva, Levitan and myself will be initially going over, coaching changes far more in depth than you and I just talked about the next wave of guys.

We believe can be hired as head coaches and forward thinking offensive gurus. And moving on to season long tiers, season long rankings, all that stuff that everyone loves. So just stay tuned to the free podcast feed and then we will direct you from there. Yeah, highly recommend everything John is doing over at ETR. All of your podcasts are fire. They're in my weekly listens. Let me ask you a question. So we see this on X and we're definitely not going to make this into a draft strategy show.

but is there a give us give us like one little piece of draft strategy that you want to throw to the listeners here about how they can approach their 2025 drafts with more success there's take this any way you want john the way 80p sets itself up this year is that the term late round quarterback and this goes against the brands that j j j zacker recent the late round q b himself and rich reball who invented the Konami Code many, many years ago, they built those brands because rushing quarterbacks that were taken like as 18 to 24, QB 18 to 24 in fantasy, those guys could replicate top 12 quarterbacks simply with rushing production alone. But oddly this year, what has happened

is the stock market has taken those top 12 quarterbacks and just drop them for last year's performances. So this year you can instead get guys who had top eight, top 10 ADPs last year, like CJ Stroud and Jordan Love. you can get them as below average quarterbacks who we think can go right back into top 12 success. So I do like waiting at quarterback and that's definitely not a knock against the elite guys. It's actually very scary to say, hey, if you want running backs or wide receivers in your home leagues, by the time Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen go off the board, honestly, the running backs are at that.

If you believe in the dead zone and the dead zone reshifting itself every year, the dead zone of running backs is around the time the QB1s go. So I don't blame me for then getting off of the Alvin Cameras, the Hubbard's James Conners of the world, the veteran guys, who have successful windows most likely. But if you're projecting out to be successful in the second half of the season, they definitely have some red flags there. So I don't mind instead going to Josh Allen, Jalen, Jalen, Hurts, Jane, Daniels, Lamar Jackson.

That's fine. But the rooms are giving us, again, guys who are drafted top six last year, as CJ Stroud included now in the back end. So that's kind of the way I've been handling it, especially in home leagues this year. We all know there's a big tier drop off after Bucky Irving. And Derek Henry and Devon A-Chant, that group. And so, yes, if you just want to instead grab wide receivers there after going hero or stacking two strong running backs in the first two rounds, that's the way I am suggesting people attack 2025. Yeah.

And my takeaway this year was also quarterback related, but it's also tight end related where it's have a plan where you've talked about the late round quarterbacks. I think that this year, ADP has really shaped itself where if you're going to attack early quarterback, you sort of know, John, that the big three go off the board and then the big two go off the board. And then Patrick Mahomes sort of exists in his own little mini tier. And then after that, it's like a big group of quarterbacks heading down to like Drake May and a little bit beyond where there's just so many of them. So if you're an early quarterback drafter, like you said, then understand where you're going to take these guys to have a little bit of a clue, ADP-wise, where they're going and embrace it. but if you want to wait on quarterback, have two or three targets you're willing to take. You mentioned Stroud, you mentioned love.

I think those are both really good. Wait, wait, wait, wait on quarterback guys. There's a couple other in that mix. Getting ready for the 2025 fantasy football season, and we are drafting all the time. And what better way to get your drafts in than Bestball? This year, Fantasy Points is working with Draft Kings. Get in the game. Bestball is live at Draft Kings right now.

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eight seven seven eight hope and why or text hope n y at four six seven three six nine in connecticut help is available for problem gambling call eight eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven or visit cpg dot org eighteen plus in most eligible for problem gambling states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. One per customer. Enter the best ball, 15 million headliner contest by September 4th, 2025 to get one bonus entry. $20 fee required. Reward expires in 30 days. See terms at draftkings.com slash NFL dash best dash ball. Tight end is about as clear as it's ever been where we have the big two in Brock Bowers and Tray McBride George Kittle right behind them has a ton of upside as the tight end three.

Then Leporta is sort of in his own little mini tier. Then there's a few other players like T.J. Hawkinson, Evan Engram, who have sort of settled in. And then a wide range of players going from like tight end eight down through like tight end 15. So have your tight end plan, have your quarterback plan. And then you're able to really, really attack wide receiver and running back because you have multiple options, whether it's early or whether it's late at those one-off positions, and they're not going to throw you off from getting a very valuable running back or wide receiver. So we're sort of sympathetic on that quarterback values.

I think there could be a few later quarterbacks hitting this year that are sort of set up. And the market's really beating him up. I love the Stroud call. He's been such an easy click for me on underdog. Jordan Love is well, a perfect best ball quarterback, because you're getting him as your QB2, and we saw him finish as a top six score just two seasons ago. and we still think I win on the road in the NFL playoffs,

so we know that wasn't something fluke, went into Dallas, had the Cowboys, beat the Cowboys, then went into San Francisco and looked like they were going to pull that one off for about three quarters. We could get back to thinking Jordan Love's very good. And John, I'd say if that Brazil game didn't happen and the injury didn't happen in that Philadelphia game, maybe the story of the season would have looked a little bit different for Jordan Love last year.

I think he rushed back to get back on the field. But he was certainly really looking, good at that first game against Philly. Let's talk about quarterback for next year. We're going to reveal the first round. We're certainly not going to have a quarterback in our top 12, but which quarterback's going to be the first quarterback off the board in 2026 drafts? My answer is so boring.

I know some people want to be risky, set a trend, and mention someone else besides one of the big four, but I just think it's the safest and most simple option to say Josh Allen, who's now been a top two quarterback in points per game, and every season's 2021. And that's just because of what he continues to deliver with both his legs and in passing. The offense continues to be extremely spread out under Joe Brady so much so that yes, Khalil Shakur is the safest pick among them, but still as a slot receiver who they did not feed inside the end zone, still one with a questionable ceiling that leads the door open for any other guys, Keon Coleman in year two included. So I think it is more of an ambiguous target tree

than people give it credit for, which then lets you also stack Josh Allen through ambiguous options. So to me, it's just Josh Allen. It's that simple. Yeah. You know, I, Josh Allen, I thought about this one when I put on the sheet and I said, I think Buffalo will add a big name at wide receiver this coming off season. It just feels like they're headed in that direction. They've been waiting on this. They draft Keon Coleman. Then this year was a little bit quiet. Guys like Josh Palmer, guys like Elijah Moore. So whether it's a trade, free agency or the first round of the NFL draft where there's a number of wide receiver prospects, we're starting to get excited about for 2026. I think Buffalo has somebody where we're like, okay, Josh Allen now has a

dude in there. And Khalil Shakir has been pretty good for two years. And we have a few other players here that we're pretty confident in. But for me, it's Jaden Daniels. I really think that if Jaden Daniels delivers on his ADP this year, I think there's a chance that he leads all quarterbacks in rushing yardage, just the confidence level, running the Cliff Kingsbury offense for a second consecutive year. And I keep beating the drum on this. We've seen multiple times where year two quarterbacks finish as the QB1 overall and the NFL MVP win the NFL MVP in the same season. We saw it with Patrick Mahomes. We saw it with Lamar Jackson.

Jaden Daniels, the Vegas markets are projecting Washington to win a lot of games and score a lot of points. I saw the article that came out on ESPN today where it was the, this is really fun, where it's the executives and the scouts sort of ranking the best of the position. they had Jaden Daniels at fifth overall, which I thought was really good to see, considering he's only a second year quarterback, and they're moving him up to that sort of level. So I think the writing is on the wall. Jayden Daniels is going to have a huge season. And when we factor in the age of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, people are going to say, you know, Jaden Daniels, look what he did in year two, is scoring about the same as those guys. I think Jaden Daniels this year, QB1 off the board. So really interesting one.

Let's take one more quick break. we come back, we're at 12, and we're going to work all the way down to one overall for our 26 first round prediction. All right, welcome back, Fantasy Football Daily, Theo Graminger with John Daigle of ETR, Established the Run. Let's start out at 12. And this is one where we're sort of in agreement. Who do you think is going to be the 12th overall pick in 2026? The back end of the first round, I should say, is in my mind, a combination, imagination of five to seven guys, but I will go ahead and start with, let's go Devon A-chan. And if A-chan were to go higher, it would not shock me at all. But we saw last year, quite literally the

RB2 and the game that Tua played the RB40 when Tua did not. I have no idea why Mike McDaniel genuinely cannot figure out any semblance of a relevant offense whenever Tua does not play. but either way Devon A. Chan's target share stays the same. So the argument against him, as people tend to usually make these arguments, is that, well, he's useless whenever Tua doesn't play. But also, when things go right for every player in the league, not every player still wins your week and wins fantasy football. If everything goes right for Devon A. Chan, he breaks your league and he breaks fantasy football. So that's why I will always be high on him, understanding he can beat you in any given week. Yeah, I had Devon A-chan right here at 12. And I think like we have no idea with the future holds of the quarterback position in Miami. I think that they would love to see a healthy season and sort of a rebound season from Tuotunga by Loa. But that's the reason I'm not putting Devon A-chan higher on this list is just sort of the lack of clarity for what Miami will look like next year. Add in that Mike McDaniel could get fired if the season goes poorly.

So we could have an offensive change. But I think fundamentally, Devon A-chan is set up to have a potential 100-catch season as a running-back this year. I think he could be leading the NFL and running back receptions for two straight years. This year, he wants to be a thousand-yard runner. They've talked about using them a little bit more on some inside runs. They want to see that yards per carry average go back up after it was just absolutely electric as a rookie. So Devon A-chan at 12, it's just I'd like to push him up earlier here, John, but I think this is a smart ranking. I had Sequin Barclay also sort of tied for 12,

which some people are going to get a little bit annoyed with, and it's sort of a cop-out answer here. But Barclay was one where I think that the market could be harsh on him. I think there's a chance that this looks stupid on my part. But I have Barclay at fifth overall in my top 50 rankings to come out this week over at FantasyPoint.com. And the history has not been kind to the runner who takes on this sort of volume. The last two runners to do this were Arian Foster in 2012. And then who was the other one in 2014? DeMarco Murray.

Oh, yeah, DeMarco Murray. So DeMarco Murray in 2014, DeMarco Murray goes from averaging like 22 points per game about what we saw Seque on average down to like 13 points per game, a huge drop. Arian Foster, very similar, had a huge drop in points per game. and then interestingly enough, both of those players had huge rebounds two years after. So they both went up like five points per game. So they didn't really go down in scoring average because they were cooked as players.

It was more like the volume from the previous season really caught up to them. And now a lot of people in the chat might say, you know, the team situations change for these guys, etc. But with Sequin next year, we're also going to factor in the age where Sequin will be 29 next year. So I kind of look at Sequin as a player that if his points per game drop down to 17 points per game, which would still be a solid number, that the market might say we're looking at a 29-year-old running back who is not catching a lot of passes in this offense, whose points per game average went down like four or five last year, and now he's 29 years old.

So for me, I think the turn makes sense for Sequin next year. Now he could make me look full She could be the number one overall pick next year, John, if he does what he did last year. But where are you out on St. Juan? So the way I've been explaining it, just because if I'm adjusting for era and trying to give more recent examples, since, I mean, name the amount of items that have changed in NFL training and nutrition since 2012 and 2014, I have been pointing out, 2017 Leveon Bell, 2019 Christian McCaffrey, 2020, Derek Henry, 2022, Josh, Josh, John. Jacobs and 2024, Christian McAfrey, as the guy who had 390 plus touches, if you include the postseason for all. And in the following year, the next time they played football, those guys collectively averaged 0.9 fewer yards per carry, 2.4 fewer points per game for fantasy, and a full yard fewer per touch the next time they played. And so I just think there's,

like you said, the touches wear on you, they grind your bones down the following year when you try to carry that same workload. And given Sequin Barclay's age, he is one of the riskier picks and all the fan's tool. And I know it's crazy to say that, but it's not hyperbole. He's one of the riskier options, especially since the first round is extremely, extremely tight this year. Like there are only two tiers in the first round, and you can't even squeeze other guys

in because wide receiver ADP in particular at the back end is outright correct. Like everyone wants to try to get higher on. A.J. Brown, Brian Thomas, Juden, and I understand, but in doing so, you have to push other guys out, and you can't push out, Malik neighbors, Nico Collins, those guys. So it's just a naturally tight first round, and that leads me to just

poke holes and be diligent about the process. And if we're doing that, Seekwon Barclay is a scary option. Yeah, so we're sort of in line on Seekwan there. 11 overall for me is Drake London. And I've called him this year's Dark Horse Wide Receiver 1 overall

finisher. I'm higher on him in terms of my valuation for 2026 than I am a few other wide receivers. We talked a little bit in the pre-show, Ladd McConkey, we're not going to really talk about. AJ Brown, of course, will be another year older. And I don't see him necessarily having that year where he has a huge correction in the market here. And then Nico Collins, for me, I will have behind Drake London as well. It's the sheer target volume that I think Drake London is going to absorb this year. I think we're talking about 165 targets for London. We saw just how hyper-targeted he was in those three Michael Pennock starts last year. And I think London is going to have a top-five finish. We're going to get excited about him. He's still very, very young. And I think becoming a

first-round pick is sort of the next hurdle for him to overcome. We see people enthusiastically drafting him in the middle of round two this year. I think this is a natural progression. for a true alpha outside wide receiver with a unbelievable chance at fantasy success this year. And John, we're both bullish on Zach Robinson. So if we're bullish on Zach Robinson, we should also be very bullish on Drake London, sort of steering that tide. And believe the pass rate will naturally be higher for the Falcons as a whole. And yes, as you said, we did not, a couple of them did not include Darnell Mooney.

So you have to take it all with a grain of salt. But still, you have to earn 13 targets. a game. 13 targets a game are not just given. And that's what London did from Michael Penix and their starts together. So like you, I am very, very high on Drake London. I do think he's a value in the mid-second round in home leagues again. Yeah. And I have him like, I've talked about the head-to-head decision where in the second round, the Drake London versus Ladd McConkey versus AJ Brown for drafters who want to catch up at wide receiver in route too. And we'll throw Rashi Rice in that mix. Like I think that decision is going to be a big one for fantasy managers this year.

That group of four wide receivers are all appealing. But London to me is the most appealing in that range. 10 overall for me, John, C.D. Lamb. And it's sort of just C.D. Lamb fatigue where C.D. Lamb is what he is. I think that he's awesome. I think this year, I don't think he gives us a wide receiver one overall finish. I know that that's in the range of outcomes. I do think some of the touchdown scoring could go to George Pickens.

I think Pickens, as in the range of outcomes, that Pickens could be a 10 touchdown catch type player. I still think that Lamb could, again, make me look very foolish with ranking him this low in the first round. It's a little bit lower than we're seeing him go at this year. I just think that when you look at the year two wide receivers, there's going to be a couple of these players that are just going to be heading into year three. They're going to get the market a little bit more excited about C.D. About Van C.D. Lamb, you know, just continually doing what he does. So Lamb, I think, will have a very strong season. I don't think he's going to have a return to 2023.

I think he'll be a little bit more like the 19 point per game type, which is still really, really good and would make sense here at about 10 overall for me. Where would you be at for your 10th overall guy? It's the same reasoning I had for Dack Prescott. You just look back to their healthy seasons together and CDLAM participated in offseason workout. So we're already off to a good start here. But in 2023, he averaged literally just over six more points per game as opposed to last year's performance. So coming back in at full conditioning, full strength with DAC with the best second wide receiver he's ever played with in George Pickens.

I think Cid Lamb is once again in for a very big year that probably allows him to outscore Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase. Wow, that's a bold one there, John. I really like that take. So if he's going to outscore Chason Jefferson, is he your wide receiver one overall this year? He's in that grouping. I have him alongside Chase, but we're talking about range of outcomes.

That's his ceiling as being the wide receiver one overall for sure. But right now I have him, yes, neck and neck with Chase. We'll get to Justin Jefferson in a second. But I do believe the Vikings offense becomes a different iteration than what we've seen in the past based on what they've done this offseason. Yeah, we'll talk about Jefferson in a moment. So Lamb comes in for me, number 10. And then at 9, John, it's Puka Nakua at 9 overall, which is actually a little bit lower than I have him in my top 50 rankings.

I'm very high on Puka this year. It just feels like when I'm looking at Pooka Nakuwa, we haven't seen that immense touchdown season. And I think that this year, Devante Adams is going to be really, really good. And don't get me wrong. I think Puka's going to have a fantastic year. Like he was on pace for 160 plus targets last year in terms of a per game basis. He had 160 plus targets as a rookie, just a fantastic wide receiver, just destroys PPR leagues. He's young and he has a great connection with Matthew Stafford.

And we think that the Rams offense is going to be really good. But I think that this is about right for him in 2026. I don't think he's a player that's going to just break a glass. ceiling and be like a top three top five pick. I think for me, he's going to be a little less appealing than a couple of those guys heading into year three. And then I still have the Jefferson and chases ahead of him as well. Pukunakou is interesting just because, as you said,

Devante Adams is going to make a massive impact in the way Sean McPheas historically used his wide receivers. Whenever Robert Woods went down during their Super Bowl run, then all they did was put O'Dell Beckham in there as wide receiver two. and he led the team in end zone targets even alongside Cooper Cup. Whenever Cooper Cup went down in the past or Puka in the past because as a physical player, DeMarcus Robinson got plugged in and led them in-zone targets. As early as a couple years ago, whenever they took the lines down in that wildcard game

to the final minute before losing due to coaching decisions in game. And then this year we're talking about Adams filling in that same role across from Puka, but obviously that's the best second wide receiver that, Puka has played with since Cooper Cup in his prime a few years ago. So yeah, I think Adam, as he showed us between the Raiders and Jets last year, it's the tail in, but he's still in his prime and can still absolutely dominate with a 25 plus percent target share. So yeah, Devonzi Adams is going to make a huge impact.

How much of an impact? I'm not sure, but the Rams are certainly a very top heavy team. And they're going to be one of the most explosive offenses in the league, as long as everyone stays healthy. Now, eight overall, we're of course doing a PPR format. This is not tight end premium. But at eight overall, for me, it's Brock Bowers. And I feel like this is almost a little bit of a cop-out ranking.

I maybe should have him higher because I think if he's able to have the kind of season that I think he will this year. And he has a second consecutive year of going over 100 catches. I think this year he will break Zach Ertz's target record. that's held up for a number of years now. I think Bowers and McBride both have a chance to break the target record for the tight end position. But if this Vegas Raiders offense takes a step forward, then we'll have the quarterback clarity of Gino Smith heading into next year.

Brock Bowers will only be 23 years old. And John, I think he's got 20 point per game potential this year. I think that he's a north of 17 point per game tight end. and if he has a huge touchdown upside type year, then I think this could be a year that we get another 20 point per game tight end with Brock Bowers, then this rate rate rate rate rate might be too low. And you might see people making this argument that Bowers is such a positional advantage for you.

You should take him as high as like three overall, four overall next year. Sort of like we saw the arguments for Travis Kelsey after some of his immense season. And so Bowers comes in at eight overall. Where are you in line with where Bowers will kind of settle in in regular PPR? Unfortunately, I don't think I'm in line with a lot of people, including yourself. And I don't like to be in this corner because to be clear, I love Brock Bowers. But we're still playing a game. That is fantasy football.

And he needs to, at this kind of ADP in the first round, he needs to be that 20 point guy that you think you can become. And I believe he can come too. But we're talking about odds. and probabilities, it still takes a lot to be a 20 plus point score. Just go back to last year in PPR scoring, George Kittle McBride, Bowers. They finished 0.3 points per game within each other last year. None of them separated. And so if that happens again where Bowers is the first round option doesn't separate

immensely from those two, then McBride and Kittle are just going to be better buys. Again, assuming Bowers not separate by a few points per game. So the way I've been handling the tied-in position for home leagues is to instead wait is to get a running back or wide receiver in that spot in the first round and then wait for either McBride or Kittle, since again, I do think everything suggests they can keep close with Bowers. It would not be shocking if Bauer scorches the earth and I'm just wrong on this, but I think playing this game of fantasy football, that's the strategy I'm taking into 2025. Yeah, and Scott Barrett loves to point out that we have never seen a 100 catch receiver under

Pete Carroll. We've never seen a like, sort of this sort of outcome with where it's the hyper-targeting. Maybe it's a little bit more balanced. Ashton Genty, of course, this year is going to be a huge part of that offense. But with Bowers, for me, it's just a bet on talent. Yeah. The youth, I mean, I can see it this year. And I'm sort of with you, just curious for our FFPC listeners,

where do you value Bowers with the premium put into the tight end position? So if you're in a 1.5 point or better tight-end premium type format, Does your way you're attacking Bowers sort of change and does he become a priority target for you in that format? Or are you still looking to take your shots on McBride and Kittle and sort of leave Bowers inside of what is really the top six in FFPC? So just if anybody's sort of getting back in the ADP mix here, if you're drafting on underdog, Brock Bowers consistently goes inside the second round, Trey McBride sort of at the beginning of the third round, Kittles a little bit later. If you're drafting an NFFC,

which is, of course, wide receiver heavy, just PPR. Bowers is usually there like at 23 or 24 overall, but in round two. FFPC, though, John, he's like six overall in main event ADPs right now. And McBride goes at the end of the second round consistently, like somewhere in that nine through 11 range,

usually we see McBride these days. And I admittedly have not done any of the main events yet. I've just been in the $350, dollar redraft leagues. And those, I'm still underweight Bowers across the board. And it's really just because Big Bride and getting him at the turn

or the second round as a whole, depending on how the running back tier shakes out after Devon A. Chan and Bucky Irving. But Ride, what I love is that he topped Bowers in every metric we care about. Without participation, target share, doesn't matter.

He just only scored three touchdowns. That was literally the separation. And so again, when we talk about a player having to separate at a one Z position at their ADP, you go all the way back to, I remember writing about this last year, Travis Kelsey, who in 2022, scored six more points, five more points per game in PPR leagues, than the second best tied in. Then in 2023, we came out and said in the off season, you have to fade him, because again, that margin, like it just doesn't happen.

It's clearly an outlier. And so I just, my argument, is that Bowers has to have an outlier season and he's certainly possible of it. So maybe I'm just the guy playing it way too safe and saying I prefer to get another a whole round of value and Kiddle and McBride instead and then use that Bowers pick at what I already called it, the tightest first round in fantasy football history. Yeah, Kittles, Kittles are really, really appealing click in every format, right? He's a tremendous click.

And I think back into the second round, FFPC, Kittle, it could return a lot of, a lot of value there. So coming in at number seven for me is Malik Neighbors. And of course, Malik Neighbors turns 22 at the end of this month. Just unbelievable what he was able to do. Analytically, he completely annihilated the fantasy points data. He had a 32.4% target share, which led all players. He was top three in Air Yards at 45.9%. Led the NFL in first read rate.

It was a ridiculous 42.8%. and that was all at the age of 21 years old. He broke the wide receiver receptions record, like the rookie wide receiver receptions record held by Pooka Nucca, with 109, and he did so even by missing a few games. So neighbors, I would love to put higher on this list. And I do think that if he threads the needle and leads the NFL in targets and catches this year, he could be a dark horse wide receiver one overall finisher,

despite the lack of quality on the offense. I want to put him higher, John, but I think this is about right. I think the market's going to be enthusiastic, but will we have enough enthusiasm about year two Jackson Dart or the Giants getting some mystery quarterback that would play ahead of Dart? And does that, do they pull off some sort of quarterback improvement enough that we're willing to take neighbors, you know, inside of like the top three picks? Maybe.

But I think seven overall sort of makes sense for Malik neighbors who will be. 22, turning 22 this month would be 23 years old heading in the 2026 season. And all of those stats you mentioned, recall they happened with Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, and Drew Locke. I think that's the most telling stat that he can do all of that with that grouping of quarterbacks that are not NFL starters. So the fact that we now have Jackson Dart starting what I am projecting personally for the second half of the season, just because the giants for those that don't know, not only the toughest schedule in the entire NFL this year, but in their first seven weeks, they play six top ten past defenses from last year. I think we see Jackson Dart basically

overthrow Wilson and Winston because they will be highly ineffective after week eight. The Giants also have a perfect timed buy in week 14. We're so in the fantasy playoffs, we are definitely getting Jackson Dart because there's no way they choose to evaluate Wilson and Winston in the last month of the season, especially when they are predictably out of it and just looking at who they can carry over to next year's roster. Jackson Dart led this entire class, every quarterback I'm talking about, and yards per tip from a clean pocket. Also tacked on a Jaden Daniels like eight rushing points per game throughout his career at Ole Miss, which I understand is a gimmicky offense under Lane Kiffin, but still,

Shody had that rushing juice he can carry over the moment he gets under center in the NFL. So yeah, I like Malik Neighbors. I think he's in a significantly better situation than last year despite the schedule. And again, he showed us what he can do with much worse quarterback play. Yeah. And for me, I'm going to go with Malik Neighbors, former LSU teammate. Brian Thomas Jr. comes in at six overall for me. We have quarterback clarity here.

Trevor Lawrence will be year five this year. Gets Travis Hunter on one side. He has Brian Thomas Jr. on the other. So he has this just truly elite 22 and 20. one-year-old wide receiver. We also have the competency of Liam Cohen. I think this offense is going to turn around significantly. And I think we're going to see the creativity from Liam Cohen with BTJ, where last

year he was predominantly used on the outside, didn't really have that extensive, a route tree, but still was completely dominant, had one of the best rookie wide receiver seasons of all time, and just athletically gifted the type of alpha wide receiver that we love drafting. The enthusiasm we used to have for guys like Julio Jones for A.J. Green, getting that sort of big outside wide receiver with that sort of speed for BTJ. I think BTJ could be drafted higher than this. And I think six is a really good number for him heading into 2026. Agree. It was not Jamar Chase over the last month who led every wide receiver and fantasy points. It was in fact Brian Thomas Jr. Yes, we add Travis Hunter to the mix.

the best outright wide receiver prospect among this year's class. But again, he has such a volatile range of outcomes that we just don't know how he's going to be involved in this offense. Plus, we do get the boost in Brian Thomas probably playing a career high in slot rate, getting open against smaller cornerbacks and perhaps getting more involved in one-on-one coverage since we do trust Liam Cohen's play calling. So I agree. BTJ should be there.

We're going to take quick break. We come back. We're revealing the top five overall. in 2020. Welcome back, fantasy football daily. Okay, John,

we're at the top five here. And this is, people can kind of figure out by process of elimination the five guys I have here. At fifth overall,

it's Justin Jefferson, who is just sort of too big to fail. And I know you're going to sort of make the bear case for Jefferson here where he could fall a little bit and maybe not deliver

on this sort of ADP that he's getting steamed up to. We're seeing him right behind Jamar Chase this year. He's, so he's at the wide receiver two overall. He's 25 years old. Last year, he dealt with a new quarterback in Sam Darnold. He averaged 18.7 points per game.

This year, J.J. McCarthy takes over. I'd imagine he's going to average about the same as he did last year with potential for more. Jefferson is just a Teflon talent who's finished as a wide receiver won before in his career. Never has had a bad season. He's just a remarkably talented wide receiver and will be only only. only 26 years old by this time next summer. I love Justin Jefferson, but I do worry about the pass rate, especially after last year with Sam Darnold being a major comeback of year

candidate outside of those last two games he played. And it really didn't matter at all. Justin Jefferson was still the wide receiver 4 points per game at a top 4 ADP, but more importantly, didn't separate since the top wide receiver 2 through 12 in fantasy last year finished literally within two points per game of each other. Just negligible difference. And so now we're talking about an offense that not only added Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, drafting Dodd and Van Jackson in the first round as well to their offensive line. It's going to be a rookie quarterback who they are clearly trying to protect with all the

offensive line upgrades. And only having six picks heading into the draft still took one of significant capital and gave it to the 49ers for another running back to improve their gold go efficiency since on goal line carries, Aaron Jones had 13 carries for negative two yards and a fumble. It was horrible. So here comes Jordan Mason to help alleviate and make life easier for J.G. McCarthy. Justin Jefferson will have to be Uber efficient, in my opinion, to finish as the wide receiver won overall.

And so in this range of players, I am just going to tell everyone in home leagues you should take a running back instead. This is the fall off. That's what I believe anyways. Yeah, I think there's a big argument, especially with the enthusiasm we have for, Drake London to take your running back in if you get that sort of first half of the first round pick because you know you're going to get access to some really, really strong wide receiver

values in round two. But again, if you do want to embrace the wide receiver, occasionally you'll see Devon A. Chan, Derek Henry, a few interesting running backs inside a round two as well. So multiple approaches. But I do think that your take that with the running game improving in Minnesota this year, the offensive line should be lights out. I love the Jordan Mason. had over like 25% of Mason's runs last year resulted in first downs. And he had only about 150 carries, but still was towards the league leaders in runs over 20 yards. Really, really an effective runner. I've been drafting a lot of Jordan Mason.

I'm sort of in a arguing with multiple people here over at fantasy points. I think I've been Mason ahead of Aaron Jones. A couple people like Graham Barfield, Scott Barrett, I've been Aaron Jones is a really good value. Mason, they don't really buy into it. You're on the Mason net. Like how much your exposure, are you splitting it between the two Minnesota backs? Or are you trying to have way more Mason or like which way are you going with this one for best ball?

It's such a hard conversation. Well, and best ball. I thought we were talking about redraft. And best ball. Well, we can take it either way in any way you want. I'm just curious redraft. It's just much easier because Jordan Mason, we don't have to have the headache of the start sit situations in a committee if he's the short yardage back.

we can soak up those, you know, eight to 12 touchdowns, whatever he's going to score and what we believe will still be an efficient offense, even if they're running the ball more. We can soak those up and just start him in our lineups without actually having to click that button. That makes it really easy for Jordan Mason. For redraft, it's the same argument that we are trying to figure out for Dave Montgomery, Alvin Camara, James Connor, James Connor, Chuba Hubbard. Like, yeah, there's probably Kenneth Walker even. There's windows. There's going to be windows where these guys are serviceable and their top 12 running backs. but if we're trying to project out towards the second half of the season for the fantasy playoffs

and 17 games really can Aaron Jones hold up for the second time ever since last year was really an outlier performance we're talking about in his age 30 C age 29 season that's the first time ever he had over 300 touches and yet he turned in a career low in yards per touch so it really seems like that was an anomaly performance that we should instead say he can't do that again and i think that's the way i lean is still taking jordan mason over Aaron jones and season long leagues, understanding that, again, probabilities, range of outcomes. Aaron Jones probably leads his team in touches, but there's also a very clear, like very clear red flags held for him to climb in order to do that. And that's why I want to be behind and

underweight on that. Yeah. And I think just the, you nailed it 30 years old, the contingent upside for Jordan Mason in what should be a really, really good offense where we've, last year, Aaron Jones ran, ran hot in terms of staying healthy. This year, the pendulum. could shift. You mentioned it was how much volume he took on last year, where if Jordan Mason, we get a five-week window, a six-week window where he's the starting running back in Minnesota and Aaron Jones has to rest a little bit. I think Mason would be like a RB1 on the weekly ranking. So he's got that kind of potential. And we saw him last year have those three RB1 finishes over the first month of the season. Maybe that's just what Jordan Mason is,

a guy who comes in and absolutely crushes it when the starting running back goes down. But I do think he's got the added bonus where he could be the goal line back in what should be a really good offense, even if Aaron Jones stays healthy. So I like that Jordan Mason picked this year in redraft and in best ball. But I agree with you. In best ball, he's just an easy, easy click in that like eighth round area. Let's talk about four overall. And John, I could have gone higher with this one, because I think there's ranges where he's the number one overall pick next year. But it's Ashton Gentie. Ashton Genty comes in at four. overall. And I think Gentie is going to be really, really good this year. And Gentie could also

lead all running backs in touches as a rookie. I think he is one of the better bets to just have unbelievable volume this season. His potential backup is Rahim Moster, who's 32 years old. We're also going to see what Ashton Genty has as a receiver. And I think the Gentie projects to be a better receiver than some are projecting, where it doesn't have to be like a high highly, highly targeted player. But I think that he has an opportunity with the kind of snap share he's going to have, that he's going to be an opportunistic pass catcher. He's going to have 45, 50 catches this year.

And I think that that's not like hyperbolic. I think him catching 45, 50 balls just by being on the field all the time is in the range of outcomes. Your thoughts on Genti, is this the correct valuation for him heading in the 2286? Am I a little too high? Am I a little too low? I think it's correct. and much like Sacon Barkley, he's one of the most polarizing players in the first round. Because you can, you don't have to squint to see how he still gets there, even if the Raiders

defense is completely cooked. Like we know how they want to play under Chip Kelly and Pete Carroll at Ohio State, at UCLA, these offenses for Chip Kelly leaned on RPO's, zone runs, misdirections. They thrive through the running back at a fast-paced environment. but the Raiders defense, unlike the Jets, in my opinion, the Raiders defense won't allow them to do that. And so if we think their pass rate is just logically going to be higher because they can't run the ball because they're going to be playing for behind a lot. It's really just a matter then if Genti is going to be out there for passing downs, and I believe he will. He already showed last year he can handle a nation high 397 touches that he also turned into 4.7 yards after contact per run.

So the fact he is elusive on top of being a workhorse, I think he's naturally going to get there. So RB1 definitely his ceiling. His floor, like Saigon Barclay, it may honestly just not be bad enough to push him out of the first round. I don't think it's going to be. But the fact is, especially in redraft leagues, you don't really care about that floor. You're only trying to get the league winning guys. And the fact that his range of outcomes includes a league winning ceiling, that's why we're so high on him. I think it's interesting kind of where the ADP is shaken out for Genti.

And I understand you reference sort of the downside risk there. But it's interesting to me. I've talked about this on a couple of podcasts where we did a lot of rookie content together, John. I came on your channel. I think twice you came on mine. And we talked about this rookies. And like the enthusiasm we had for Genti, the valuation we had for Genti, it seemed to me like at the time that we were going to have to use like the sixth or seventh overall pick on him.

where people were going to bet on him to have that Sequin-like rookie year production, that Zeke Elliott rookie year production, be a 20-point-per-game score. We're actually kind of paying Najee Harris rookie year prices right now, where you're seeing him go in like that 201 to 204 range a lot of times in some of these FFPC drafts. So it's just an interesting one for me. I think he is going to end up paying off at ADP because you're not having to use a top five pick on him.

structurally he makes a lot of sense. And I love, love, love, Devon Achan. I mean, I'm a huge A. Chan guy. I know you are as well. Derek Henry, I think, is a great click this year as well. But Henry and A. Chan, the Miami offense could go completely south. You could have a coach fired in the middle of the year. And I love my guy Achan, but he's also, you know, sub 200 pound back.

Derek Henry, 31 years old. I think he's going to have a great year. I think he'll have the best season ever. for a 31-year-old running back. I think he's like Curtis Martin, 2004, all over again. But again, 31 years old. I don't have that sort of headache with Ashton Genty. I think him holding up for the season,

it's, you know, no one can predict injuries. But with Genty, it's a 21-year-old bet right there, the volume. And dare I say it, the stability of the Vegas Raiders, with Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly, Gino Smith, I just feel like that situation is pretty stable, too. Yeah, I think Gentie, it's going to be, it's going to take him being really underwhelming, like RB 14, RB 13 for him to fall out in next year's first round. If he just hits like 16 and a half points per game, I think he's a first round pick.

And if he's a little bit higher than that, I think he could be even higher than this four overall. Three overall for me, I actually went with Jamar Chase. And I love Chase. Chase is still my bet to be the wide receiver one overall. But it's difficult to finish as wide. receiver one overall in consecutive seasons. Jamar Chase for me, I think it's a really reflective of how good these players at two and one are and how good their seasons could be and 2026 situations could be. So for me, Jamar Chase comes in at three overall, even though I have him as number one

in my top 50. I think he's the best pick for you to make at the 101 this year. And he's still going to be very, very young next year. He'll be 26 years old heading into. the 2026 season. So I could have put him at one, but I think next year is going to be two, excuse me, he'll be 25 years old, John, 24 years old right now for Jamar Chase. So three overall Jamar Chase, but I got two running backs ahead of them. Your thoughts on Chase at three. There were two weird things happening with the Bengals last year. One, as our friend Rich Rebar has pointed out on social media, Jamar Chase's numbers actually increased in the game T. Higgins played. T. Higgins made life easier for Chase, which is, which is odd.

because usually you would think all this vacated opportunity, it goes to Chase. Not the case. As we know, it actually just made Mike Jaseki a top three tied in. Whenever T. Higgins was out, Jaseki then became useless when Higgins returned. At that same time, though, Higgins also, for the first time ever, was a 1B to chase. Usually he had just fallen apart and not made an impact unless Chase was out. He was always below ADP consideration. But last year, Higgins with the games he played with Chase,

was averaged eight and a half targets per game and was the wide receiver eight and points for game alongside Chase. So both those guys elevated their games when playing together with Joe Burrow. I would imagine Chase, again, when you're talking about the floor and just bottoming out, the floor is still probably so good that he's not getting out of the first round at all. Yeah, I think he's almost too big to fail after last year's season. I'd even go so far as to say Jamar Chase could get injured this year and he's still going high in next year's first round. So, yeah, three overall for Chase. And then number two here, Jemir Gibbs.

And I have Jemir Gibbs at number three overall in my top 50, top 50 rankings that are coming out of fantasy points this week. I have them ahead of Saquan Barclay. I have them ahead of Justin Jefferson. I think that it's not going to take a whole lot here for Gibbs to become like maybe the league winner at the running back position this year. You're only going to have to see, you're not going to have to see David Montgomery disappear. year. But you're going to have to see David Montgomery take a step back and this offense go from a little bit less of a 50-50 running back split to more of a 60-40. And John, if we get 65-35 and we see Gibbs used a little bit more as a receiver, he could be

the RB1 overall this year. Now, heading into 2026, I think the narrative will continue to be a little bit less in favor of David Montgomery because next year, David Montgomery will be a 29-year-old. So the 29-year-old David Montgomery, no matter what happens this year, is going to be looked at as a little bit, a little bit less of a thorn in the side type player for Jemir Gibbs. I think the market's going to be even more enthusiastic about Gibbs heading into 2026 than they are right now in 2025. And the market's pretty high on him right now. The glass half empty argument for Jemir Gibbs is that since Since the Lions returned from their buy in 2023, so we're talking about a whole season and a half now, Jamira Gibbs and David Montgomery have been available together for 24 games.

And in those 24 games they finished together, Montgomery actually has 14 more total touches than Gibbs in that time. I think the glass half full, though, for Gibbs' argument is that John Morton not only brings like a question to this offense and maybe condensing everything, but also their offensive line woes, will probably play itself out and not being good for between the tackles, runner and grinder like Montgomery. And naturally, they'll have to force Gibbs into more space, giving him more touches weekly. So I can see both outcomes. Evan Silva from ETR actually has Gibbs as RB1 overall this year ahead of Saquan Barclay.

He too is somewhat worried about the touches Barkley received last year. So yes, Gibbs is someone I'm very high on. I will take him in home leagues. He believes in the tier of what I believe is an argument for six players. It's a strong one through six in home leagues. Draft whichever one Gibbs is right there, including if you want to take him as your first overall running back. Yeah, I just think fundamentally,

big shout out to Evan, all the work that he does over at ETR. But I think fundamentally, you just feel much more dangerous drafting Jamir Gibbs than you do Saquan Barkley right now. And it's the age discrepancy. After last year, all the old guys hitting, Let's get back to a little bit of Aegist drafting and attack these really exciting 23-year-old running backs.

So number one overall for me this year, you know, at the running back position is Bejohn Robinson. And I think he will be the number one ranked player for most drafters in terms of ADP heading into 2026. Because I think he's going to have an RB1 overall season this year. I've made that prediction on a few shows ahead of Jemir Gibbs. and Bejohn, we also talked about Zach Robinson, how he's going to elevate Drake London. Zach Robinson is also going to get the very best out of Bejohn Robinson. Bejon also had a little bit of a slow start last year, John, didn't have any 20-point weeks in the first five weeks of the season, and then just started ripping him off right and left.

Last year, he had 1800 plus total yards, 1887 combined yards. I mean, just unbelievable. So he was third among all running backs in combined yardage last year as a 22 year old. He had average 20 points per game last year. And the reception totals have been very strong for him. Had 61 receptions last year. I think Bijan this year could take that number up to a scary 70 plus level. Bejohn, to me, just screams the like potential league winner at the running back position this year.

And unlike Jemir Gibbs, where I have. a couple of things to worry about with the David Montgomery usage. We don't have Arthur Smith coming around to do some weird things. We're going to have rational coaching with Zach Robinson. And Tyler Al Jir is nothing more than a contingent upside handcuff. He's not a threat to take away touches. So I think Bejohn is just set to have an exceptional year. And if we get together and we start predicting the 2027 draft, we're not going to like make these bearish calls on Bejohn repeating as RB one overall because we're going to have a little less concerns about it because again, it's the receiving upside and the fact that he will be only 25 years old, excuse me,

only 24 years old next summer. So Bejohn, number two for me in my top 50 overall right now, and he'll be number one in 2026. Your thoughts. Regardless of how the offense shakes out through the air, Bejohn Robinson, that's the argument for him, is that he can still clearly get there as a past catcher and not only having a double digit target share in both seasons now, but last year even just falling short of Kyron Williams to lead their position and route participation. So, and that was year one under Zach Robinson. So Bejan Robinson is their past catching back as well as everything he does between the tackles. I could see this for sure. I personally will have Gibbs over Bejan Robinson, but do both belong right there in this RB1 outcome?

Of course, yes. Yeah, and we had Pat Corain on School of Scott and did running back breakdown. And he sort of talked about the upside arguments for Gibbs that you're also talking about. I think that's the one scary thing is a ceiling season, like the best possible season for Jemir Gibbs is probably higher than the best possible season for Bejohn Robinson. Because again, Gibbs like, I mean, Gibbs could could just be unbelievable. I just think with Robinson, it's a little bit more clarity, a little less variables. So for me, I'm going to go Bejan ahead of Gibbs, but I don't have a ton of Gibbs as well. You talked about Nico Collins as the one player you would have potentially crammed in here,

John, that I didn't have in my top 12. Talk about your enthusiasm for Nico and how the market could be really enthusiastic for him heading into 2026. Oh, it's just the fact that what he's shown us in the past, and the 11-4-games he played last year without Stefan Diggs, he recorded a 37% target share. There's so much shuffling going around that I do think Christian Kirk is a value in season-long leagues just because everyone's assuming that it's going to be Jalen Knoll or Jaden Higgins that step in to both Tankdale and Stefan Diggs's place. Christian Kirk's probably like the winner at value. But in terms of everything left over and what he's shown us in the past, now that he's fall removed, thankfully, from Davis Mills ever throwing to him again, Nico Collins very clearly has the peripherals to finish as the wide receiver one overall.

Yeah, and you talked about Christian Kirk, but Christian Kirk to me is just not any sort of a threat to Nico Collins. And then the other two receivers that are his biggest target competition this year, Jalen Noel, Jaden Higgins are both rookies. So yeah, I get it. Nico Collins is 26 years old. He's had two consecutive seasons of averaging 17 points per more or more. And now we have this new offensive coordinator coming over where it's going to be a lot. little bit more of like we talked about, like we talked about with Drake London, you know, you get the Sean McVeigh system, a little more pass happy. So I could absolutely see it. And again, Nico is only 26 years old. So heading into 2026, he will be a 27-year-old potentially

coming off of a top three season. If he does what John thinks he could do, then he would, could end up being a top five pick next year. So Nico definitely could end up being a player that sort of makes me look foolish for not including them inside my top 12. Another player that we were both in line with and really the only other player that we said we have to discuss. We both think Omar and Hampton at this time next year might be a first round pick. Agree. And it's not just because of the nausea Harris rumors, but the fact what the Chargers want to be

based on last year. So before they're by and J.K. Dobbins' efficiency certainly adds into this because he opened the season with gimmies against the Raiders and Panthers, so of course he looked great. And then after from week three on, JK Dobbin was actually one of the least explosive running backs and the entire league. He just scored a lot of touchdown.

That's how you mask and efficiency is falling forward. But the Chargers, more importantly, in the first month of that season, showed us what they want to be under Harbaugh and Greg Roman. At the time, they had a 50% neutral run rate, which was the fifth highest in the league. After the buy, they come out, they realize both JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards

cannot run the ball behind their offensive line, and they then go to a 27th standings in neutral run rate. But the emphasis they put on their team this offseason and adding Mackay Beckton to shift over to left tackle and adding Amari and Hampton the first round, I think suggests they want to get back to that first month offense that protects Justin Herbert and doesn't make him do literally everything. So Amarian Hampton just overthrowing Naji Harris at the end of the year,

and then suddenly we're talking about him the first round next season. Of course that can happen. Yeah, you could just see a scenario where Omari and Hampton is unbelievable in the fantasy football playoffs and has like a really, really strong end of the season. I'm with you. I think Hampton is is just awesome and it was such a good prospect. We were enthusiastically drafting him very, very high in dynasty rookie drafts. And when we talk about like size speed combinations, 220, ran a 4-4-140, everything, he checks off all sorts of boxes for us, draft capital,

and that offense being potentially really, really good heading into 2026 with that dynamite offensive line, Justin Herbert, and Hampton being the focal point of the offense. I think ultimately he probably settles in into like 15 overall, like just outside of next year's first round. But I think that there's a couple scenarios like Collins

where he could be steaming up into the top six. He could be right outside of the, Bijan, Jamir Gibbs, Ashton Genty tier. And there's a non-zero chance that he could flip Ashton Genty this year. If the Chargers offense is just looking so much better heading into next season, and Omari and Hampton has a better last month of the year. And we just start saying, like, look at the situations here. The Chargers have this sort of offense.

I wouldn't really bet on it. I think Gentie will continue to run ahead of Hampton. But I don't think it's a non-zero chance. year, John, that our enthusiasm level for Hampton is not through the roof next year. So really, really very fun discussion here. And I'm glad we're in line with so many of these players. Anybody saying, hey, man, where's Christian McCaffrey? Christian McCaffrey will be 30 years old.

John and I are not even going to discuss him heading into the 2026 drafts. It's just not going to happen. Trey McBride didn't make the cut. Ladd McConkey didn't make the cut. So a number of players, we just don't think are going to force their way into such a really strong group heading into 2026. John, forget 2026 for a second. Give us one bold prediction for 2025 to end the show.

What's funny is everything you just mentioned about Christian McCaffrey and us predicting the 2026 drafts. Yes, in 2026, I think we will be talking about McCaffrey the same way we are talking about Barclay this year and being concerned about the workload he has. Because at least when he's been healthy, similar to how we drafted Will Fuller, he is shown us that he can win your league. He may not be healthy for the playoffs for the full year, but when he's on the field, he is a difference maker. And so that's why I believe, and maybe this isn't even that bold, I'm not sure, but because of the 49ers having the league's easiest schedule this year, because of Christian McCaffrey, his first two seasons that are Kyle Shanahan,

being the RB1 and RB2 in points per game, and then only being available last year for a couple starts with Brock Purdy, even though in those couple of starts, he out-touched Jordan Mason 43 to 2 because Kyle Shanahan does not care about his player's health. He will happily run them on to the ground because of all of this, I think Christian McCaffrey is going to outscore Sequin Barclay in 2025. And in home leagues, last year's bias still runs very deep. He will be available for you at 112 as your RB2 or hero running back starts. And that's the way I like to approach it. Yet another guest of mine is singing the praises of Christian McCaffrey in telling you to draft him this year. You're not the only one.

Pat Corain's all over him. Scott Barrett's all over him. A lot of very smart people are a little bit higher than I am on Christian McCaffrey right now. But I do have one, 21, 201 Christian McCaffrey share in the FFPC main event. I just can't do it like the 107 right now, John. I understand the appeal, you know, but here we are. This was a lot of fun. Make sure you check out everything.

John is putting out over at ETR, the podcast he's putting out with Adam Levittan and Evan Silva are going to be must listens for you. And stick with us here at Fantasy Football Daily. Mike Schope is going to join me. We're going to discuss third and fourth round draft strategy. Graham Barfield's going to be on later this week as well to discuss the best possible stacks for you in best ball and in redraft. We'll see you soon.