Fantasy Football Daily - 2Barz: 2022 QB and TE Draft Strategy

Episode Date: August 26, 2022

Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) and Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) discuss some of their targets and avoids at the QB and TE position, plus general draft strategies for those positions. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Yo, welcome back, everybody. A special edition of the two bars podcast here today. I'm with my guy Scott Barrett. But before we get into it, I want to, you know, tell you guys, I mean, it's the biggest draft weekend of the year.

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But Scott, let's talk through some quarterback tight-in strategy today. We're going to be talking running backs and receivers tomorrow. And I figure we can just kind of start from the top. Just start with quarterbacks. Josh Allen is the QB-1, head and shoulders above the field. You and I really haven't talked too much quarterback strategy this year outside of like, you know, some of the more obvious guys. But where are you out on Allen? Are you drafting him at all at his ADP? I mean, he's going in like that 30 to 35 overall range.

And you have to pass up some pretty sweet receivers to get him. No, I'm not. He should be the QB1 for sure, but I'm still never going to draft him. I just don't like the value there. And, you know, that's where the premium running, running backs are. And then all the value just completely falls off a cliff. That's a historically a sweet spot for wide receivers. And it's the end of the oligarch tight end.

So, yeah, Josh Allen deserves QB1 status. Also, never drafting him, don't draft him. Unless it's, you know, some bizarre league. There's bizarre leagues, but super flex for sure. He probably should be the 101. but outside of that, not taking them. Do you have pits over him? Just out of curiosity for the tight and oligarch type of deal?

Yeah, I mean, so this is the thing, Graham. I don't know that we need to walk the position one by one or if we should just give our overall strategy thoughts because that's how I outlined it in My Guys. If you missed it, it's my most important article the year. My Guys is out. You can read that. And everyone asks for overall rankings.

And I just don't do that. I don't think that's the right way because everything is so site specific, so league specific. For sure. And, you know, I have to update that every single day. But it's really not laziness. It's just I don't think that's the optimal way to go about it. I give you the optimal strategy at each position, the top values and my positional rankings, but not my overall rankings. If you haven't checked out, my guys really recommend that, as is always the case.

I give out my Exodia plays and those guys are always going to jump two to three rounds by ADP. Sometimes it's just obvious. It's like if you weren't on Damien Pierce a month ago, you're a donkey. And then, you know, that first preseason game, he got yanked mid-drive and Johnny popped up in my DMs and he's like, Damien Pierce needs to be seven rounds higher than his ADP. They just showed us that they think he's the starter. They've seen enough for all of the preseason. And, you know, that's sort of where I had in many way, definitely trending in that direction. But the other thing, and Graham, I don't want you to say this is just me being self-important. I do not think it's me being self-important. The other thing is, once my guys drops, you see a lot of analysts around the industry start touting

guys whose names they haven't mentioned all off-season, guys who if you check their rankings, there are 10 spots below ADP, and now they're tweeting out, this guy's a league winner, this guy's must draft. And two weeks later, their rankings look a lot like mine. Maybe that's, maybe this is just paranoia on my end, but it's, it's sort of how it goes every single season. I do have some exodias at the quarterback position, but I also have a firm set strategy in place. Do you want to just go position by position or should I dive into what I think the optimal strategy is this year? Yeah, well, I mean, with quarterback, I'm with you. Outside of best ball, I'm not drafting Alan.

I'm not really drafting Mahomes either. I think he still goes a little bit too early. Really, I think the pocket this year, like if you're doing your draft this weekend on Yahoo or Sleeper, ESPN, I was looking through ADP, and I think the pocket is like Kyler, Hertz, Lance, and I kind of view them all similarly. I have Hertz a scosh above Kyler,

and then Lance, like, slightly behind those two guys, but Lance by far goes well after those guys. So my kind of plan in all of my leads that I'm doing on Sleeper and Yahoo is pretty simple. It's like if I can get Herbert or Lamar or Mahomes to fall to me, great. But in general, I'm going to be taking Hertz, Lance, and Kyler in the round six, seven range. And that's kind of the spot, man. I think that's the sweet spot. That's after the top 20 or so running backs go off the board.

I think the dead zone is really pronounced in rounds five and six. And then that's kind of also the spot where receiver starts falling off the board. And you've got to start making a choice between Amaric Cooper versus Jalen Hertz. You know, Michael Thomas versus Jalen Hertz. There's a certain risk reward payoff there where it's like, okay, I already have three receivers. What's the point of taking a fourth who might be exceptionally risky when I could just get a locked in quarterback one with QB1 upside like Hertz or. Kyler. So that's, that's kind of my, my general strategy.

We're, like, I know you're super high on Hertz and Lance. How high is too high for Hertz for you? Yeah, this is the, this is why I wanted to do this podcast partly is because I, I think I could be swayed, but I've sort of been going the opposite direction with that, where, so you have the big sixth tier of quarterbacks. I really like those guys fairly equally. I think I have right now, Hertz, my Cuban. B5, and maybe that's too low, but like, I really have very little separating him from Josh Allen, even less separating him from my QB2. Kyler Murray on Yahoo is QB6.

I think I have him QB3. Jailen Hertz, again, I think QB5, he's QB8 on NFL.com, QB8 on Yahoo. And it's like, do you just, do you just gravitate towards that value? And with Hertz in particular, it's like, QB5, but that ranking is just like destroying my soul where it's like, I kind of just want to put him like QB2 because, you know, prior to that ankle injury, he was the QB1 in fantasy. And that was for the first, you know, I don't know, 13 weeks of the season. This was a guy who I had on 99% of my teams last year. And now he just upgraded Jalen Rieger with A.J. freaking Brown Graham. And so the counter argument to this is typically in drafts the sweet spot to take a quarterback.

Again, quarterback was the most overrated position in fantasy just due to scarcity. You know, in a one QB 12 team league, you start 12 quarterbacks, but there's 32 starters. So that's a really deep pool. ADP isn't great at the position outside of the Konami Code guys. Scoring is extremely flat. So the best time in a vacuum to take a quarterback is after a lull. You see like your 11 league mates all draft quarterbacks sooner than he should because they want a quarterback in their,

you know, they want their starting lineup filled out before the grab bench guys. That's not the right way to do that. You want to grab those wide receiver 3s, wide receiver 4s. And so after they've drafted their 11 or so quarterbacks, there's like a four-round lull because they know better than to draft a QB2. and right now that's you know i'm seeing tray lance who's going you know way later in these leagues due to that lull he's like qb 14 by

ADP in a lot of leagues massive kanami code upside i don't think he's very good at football to be completely honest but he is the highest margin of safety of maybe any you know quarterback after the top 10 due to the supporting cast due to the play caller due to his mobility but not just Lance is a late round target because I'm also seeing Justin Fields and I get eye rolls for this, but I love just, I have him one spot below Trey Lance. I think he could really explode. And then there's Deshawn Watson, an elephant in the room who's finished as a mid-range QB1 every single season in his career.

He's not going to be owned in any league until like week 11, week 10. And you could have a mid-range QB-1 for the fantasy postseason for free. And then of course, like not even worth mentioning, but in a lot of worst case scenario. Marcus Marriota, this preseason is looking like Lamar Jackson. But yeah, it's just so insanely deep and like the premium positions are running back, wide receiver, and then tight ends more valuable. And so do you just full on punt? Or is it stupid to pass up Jalen Hertz at QB880P because that's so stupid? Help me here, Graham. Yeah, no, I think the playman is like, get aggressive on your guys in the mid-rounds. I think the late,

round quarterback strategy is the mid-round quarterback strategy now. I know JJ Zach Reese has talked a lot about this, but I'm taking it even further. Like, I just feel so much more comfortable with my teams when I can start my lead with, let's say, just for, you know, examples sake, I start first five rounds with two, two backs, three receivers. In that sixth round, like, am I really going to take, you know, Clyde Edwards, Allerover, Jalen Hertz? am I going to take Elijah Moore, who I know is your guy, but like, we have concerns with Elijah Moore between Garrett Wilson being in town. Joe Flacco is going to be the quarterback, yada, yada, yada.

Like, I'm just, I'm getting aggressive on those guys because I truly, I'm with you. I think Hertz, Murray, and Lance are the three. I think all three have league winning potential. Jalen Hertz and Kyler both have extremely easy starts. I created a metric. It's free to read on the site. But using your SOS metrics and implied totals for the first couple weeks, I've just kind of like brass taxed out some hot start potential.

Jalen Hertz and the Eagles were the top. They were the top team in the first four weeks in terms of their SOS and applied totals. The Cardinals are going to play in three straight games to start this year with an over under over 50. There's going to be a major shootup appeal in those Cardinals games. And frankly, the only decent argument against Coyer this year, Scott, is like, okay, he's going to miss DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games. we know the Cardinals have really bad splits without nuke, but I mean, Marquise Brown is a massive upgrade over Christian Kirk

and that kind of like vertical slot role. I think there's a chance that this offense actually takes a step forward with Hollywood in tow in the first couple of weeks. And then they get nuke back and then, I mean, we're cooking with gas. And then Lance, man, like I have Lance in my personal rankings.

I have him like at 60. Like I'm just getting aggressive, man. Like, I'm, I much, I feel much, much better about him versus J.K. Dobbins, him versus Elijah Mitchell, who has already hurt. Like, it's just, to me, it's like, I hear you on the scarcity aspect, but what is the odds, what are the odds that Derek Carr is a league winner? You know, and he's like the 12th quarterback by ADP. What's, what are the odds that Kirk Cousins is a league winner? I think Lance is like Lance and Fields fields to a lesser extent. We can talk a little bit more about fields because I'm sort of with you. But the offensive line is a major concern with me.

But like that's the thing. It's like I'm probably more aggressive on some of these mid-round quarterbacks than most. And I'll give me an example. I did a Flex League ran by Jake Staley last night. Joe Dolan was in it, Michael Fabiano, a bunch of people from around the industry. You have to start two back. three receivers, two flex spots, quarterback tight end in the defense. I started my draft with cop at seven, took Swift in round two, then just went nuts at receiver. I took five straight

receivers from rounds three until seven, and then in round eight, I took Lance. And that's on Sleeper. Sleeper has Lance way too low and their overall ADP set. So does Yahoo. I've done a few drafts on Yahoo already this year. And I think you're right. It is kind of like a site specific thing, but I think that's also more reason to just load up on some of these mid-round receivers in rounds three through six and then, you know, jump on one of these quarterbacks in rounds, you know, the back half of round six, you know, into seven and eight. Yeah, you just said a lot of words and I didn't hear any of it because I was filled with rage over you just questioning the possibility of passing up Elijah Moore and saying Joe Flacco is going to be as quarterback as

if that's a bad thing. If you look at Elijah Moore's fantasy points for route run with Joe Flacco, he was on pace for 800 fantasy points. No, but in all seriousness, like, again, part of this, like we just talked about some of the guys we like, but I mean, look at ADP. Russell Wilson is QB9. I mean, is he finally going to be allowed to cook with this, like,

really sick receiving core? Tom Brady is QB10, who just threw for what, the third most passing? yards in NFL history. You have Dak Prescott, QB11, who is currently fifth or sixth in MVP odds have never finished worse than a QB1 in his career. Matthew Stafford, QB12, I get the elbow thing. But if you look at, if you factor in his postseason production, he was like an easy mid-range QB1, and I don't know why you'd think he'd be worse this year in his second year in a Sean McVeigh offense with Alan Robinson added the mix. You have Aaron Rodney.

is QB 14, the back-to-back MVP winner. Sure, he lost Chivante Adams, but I mean, like, what did he finish? QB5 last year and fantasy points per game. And then, you know, Justin Fields is always there in, like, Yahoo Leagues and, like, the last round of your draft. And he's a, he's a player with impressive upside. And so, again, I'm just really, like, I want to just say draft Jalen Hertz, but, like, if you can get an Elijah Moore, I'd rather Elijah Moore and then take my chance.

with one of these non-Kanami, you know, older quarterbacks who, like, granted, are finishing his mid-range QB-1s. Yeah, so two things. I'm out on DAC. You know, I think he's a really safe floor play to your point. Very consistent year-over-year, but, you know, no Tyrant Smith. Their receiver core is a nightmare, man. I mean, Lamb better be amazing because they're walking into a situation where it's like,

Noah Brown is going to be their outside, one of their outside starters in week one. Jalen Tolbert is behind, James Washington's hurt, Michael Gallup's behind. It might be real rough for Dallas. I will say every single year no one wants to draft Aaron Rogers. It's like a tradition unlike any other. But, I mean, the dude is every single year beats our expectations. And I think this year is just the same. I mean, if you look back at Rogers' numbers, he's played seven full games since 20.

18 with no Devonte Adams. The Packers have average, average Scott, 31.6 points scored per game in those games without Adams. Rogers' efficiency is just as good, if not better in those games. And it's not like they've not played any good opponents, too. I mean, I haven't split out here. I mean, they play Dallas, Detroit, Vegas, Kansas City, New Orleans, Atlanta, Arizona. I mean, they played good teams. So, yeah, I'm definitely with you and Rogers. Let's talk a few late round guys. I'm with you on Fields to a certain extent. Their first two games are going to be brutal against the Niners and the Packers.

That offensive line is an absolute nightmare. I mean, they're going to be starting a fifth round rookie at one tackle spot. Learborum at the second tackle spot, Tevin Jenkins is they're trying him at guard, but I think they're going to end up trading him. At least that's what they're trying to do. If you are attacking quarterback late, I think Fields is the answer. but where are you going to add on guys like Tua and Trevor or are you just like saying screw it like

I'm just not going to mess around with these guys and I'll just take fields no I mean screw it that's another component to the quarterback position being so deep like you can conceivably just stream your way to low end QB1 production I mean that's what JJ's done every year that's what Sean Corner is done every year and their their articles testifying to that and so I just I don't I don't care about them. I don't think they have that sort of Konami code upside a Fields has where, like, Fields can be a legitimately bad passer and still, you know, put up QB5 numbers. I don't really see that.

Like maybe an Alex Smith, what was it, 2016 season is in Tua's range of outcomes with this receiving core. Sure. But I mean, I'm just not going to bet on that. Trevor Lawrence, too. I mean, there's also a chance Trevor Lawrence is just, like, awful. He had what, like, stop it. two passing touchdowns over his last 10 games.

A lot of people want to blame Urban Meyer, and I think that makes a lot of sense, but he's just, I'm never drafting him. Bro, I'm going to be depressed if T-Loss sucks. Me and my Jags group chat, I mean, we're already distraught. I said it on actually a preseason review pot earlier this week,

that he's basically, he just kind of reminds me of Jared Gough. And I don't necessarily mean that as a, like, a bad thing for Gough. He's just, I don't know, man. He's just a ball distributor. Gough, Gough can sling it, man. You give Gough a clean pocket. He can throw a really pretty ball. But yeah, I'm kind of with you.

You mentioned Mariota earlier. If you're totally punting, I really like Marioada as like a total punt. Konami Code kind of guy. Obviously, you have no idea how long he's going to be the starter. Falcons could stink. They might want to get a look at Ritter by midseason. But at least early in the year, you know, Mario da da da da da da daisy is going to be starting. We have a really, really tough schedule the Falcons do.

They actually ranked dead last. hot score metric I was talking about, but I don't know how much that matters because Mario is, you know, Mario is finally healthy and he's going to be running. Let's switch over to tie down. And I do want to start at the top here, Scott, because I do think it's an interesting debate with Kelsey. You know, this is one of the oldest players that has like a top 1580P that I can remember in my lifetime. He's 33, but, you know, he's arguably in the best spot of his career. Kelsey versus like all of the, you know, home run league winning backs in the back half of the

first round is a really interesting debate. I know where I'm at. I've got all the backs over Kelsey. And I think that's kind of where consensus is coming. I've seen Kelsey start to slip into the second round. Where are you at on Kelsey and more broadly do you just, is there still just a lot of credence to say, hey, like, I got. my first runner in round one, I'll come back and get Kelsey and then just not even have to worry about

the position for the rest of basically the year. Yeah, I think you're looking at like underdog ADP or FFPC ADP or something like sharper than than most of our listeners, you know, home leagues, which are on ESPN or Yahoo, but he's in the second round of all those. And he's in the late second round on ESPN. And I think that's a phenomenal pick. If you just look at the value offered two teams in those leagues. So like ESPN, 10 team, two wide receiver, one flex, he's far and away the most valuable player over the last five years and like is right up there every single year with maybe the second highest scoring wide receiver. And so there's certainly credence to that. I thought it was really funny that a lot of people were freaking out over his preseason usage.

And hey, maybe that means something. I just really don't think so. That's what Andy Reid did with Tyreek Hill last year. And like some people freaked out about it. But if you read quotes, like all the quotes were like, yeah, we want to be really multiple. We want to spread the ball around. We want four wide receivers heavily involved.

But it goes through Kelsey. Kelsey is going to get his and then some. But then after that, we want like a four-way wide receiver committee or whatever they've been saying and keep saying every month. And yeah, I mean, I really think there is a compelling case that like he is going to end up more valuable than just about any wide receiver. I'm not going to take him over Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Cooper Cup, not in that order. Cooper Cups my one. But yeah, I think after those guys, like, yeah, definitely hone in on some Travis Kelsey. in a vacuum you really want to be drafting running backs round one, round two.

That's optimal in a vacuum. But I think you can make a rare exception for a Travis Kelsey. And then also with this season in particular, I think ADP at the running back position is sort of bad. Yeah. So I like Kelsey. There's a huge edge in grabbing those oligarchs just because after the top three tight ends, who are putting up like top 15 wide receiver numbers by fantasy points per game. The rest are, you know, they're averaging six fantasy points for game.

So it's a big edge. Yeah. And on the Kelsey preseason thing, like I get it. We live in an age where we have to have content 24-7 and everybody has to have a take for everything. But like maybe we shouldn't be overreacting to like little small details like Travis Kelsey being 33 years old and being in his fifth year with Patrick Mahomes. Maybe that guy doesn't need to play too much in the preseason scott.

I don't know. me crazy. Deepest I'm seeing Kelsey's ADP in our sheet here is 18 at ESPN, but he is solidly in the top 15 across all our sites. I don't have sleeper in here, but I saw Joe took him in the near the round two turn in our flex league draft last night. So I'm with you. If Kelsey slips into the second round, you've already got one good runner. I would take Kelsey pretty much all over all of the receivers that go in that bucket. That includes Adams and digs. I would maybe put lamb in there. I don't know, man. It's really close. But yeah, you've got a really interesting opinion on Mark Andrews. You know, Mandrews was a guy we've been on our entire lives, man. Like, I made so much money

the year Manders broke out. He was like, my guy in the late rounds now, you know, he was a lead winner in the fifth, sixth round, but, you know, he's solidly in late second round, third round pick this year. you've got some concerns over his volume decreasing significantly, and it's not because of Isaiah likely, it's just because of the structural changes that this Ravens' offense is going to go under this year. Yeah, I mean, he's my tight end too. He was just clearly popping as a top regression candidate. You know, what changed from 2020 to 2020? He wasn't more efficient. He didn't see a much larger route share. All that changed was the Baltimore Ravens RB1, RB2, RB3 all suffered season-ending injuries in the off-season, which forced them to go far more pass-heavy than they liked to.

And so his routes run per game jumped 67%. And as a result, he jumped 43% in fantasy points per game. And that's definitely going to regress to the mean. the counter to that, though, is Marquis Brown was what, top 10 in targets last year and he's gone. I talked to a source who said, oh, Mark Andrews is going to be nuclear, a go nuclear. He's going to get every single target. He's going to smash. So, yeah, I think those two points kind of balance each other out where he's my tight end too at cost.

I think I like Kelsey Moore at cost. I think I like Cal Pitts more. but to me there's a clear three oligarchs, and it's those three. You're going to be shocked when I say this, but I like Kyle Pitts way more at cost than Andrews. Like if I can get Pitts in the fourth round, Andrews is a pretty brutal pick, I think, in the third. You know, this offense, man, they're going to go back to their old ways. You know, I know Dobbins is still questionable. Edwards is still out, but, I mean, they are volume-wise going to regret significantly this year.

you know, in the two years before Lamar got hurt in 19 and 20, the Ravens were number one in early down run rate at 58 and 59% in those two years. Last year, that slipped all the way down to like 48%, which is an 11% difference. So even if they meet in the middle and the Ravens end up going like five or six more percent run heavy, than last year, I mean, Andrews' volume's going to fall off a cliff. Kyle Pitts, we've debated them enough on this show. we've talked through him enough. I have warmed up to him.

I like quite a few. I've got like 20 receivers ahead of them. You know, my only concern with him is the touchdowns. You know, he can have, you know, 80 catches, 1,200 yards and score six times, average nearly 14 fantasy points per game and still not be a lead winner at his, you know, at his ADP. My only concern with him is the touchdowns, man. Like, how many times is this offense going to score? That's really my only, my only counter to him.

Let's talk through Waller, Kittle, and Schultz real quick, and then we'll get through some, like, you know, the mid-round guys and then late-round guys. Waller is someone I've been fading with an Iron Fist all year. His targets per route run dipped significantly last year compared to his breakout season. In 2020, now they have DeVante Adams, Hunter Renfro is still a baller. I think he's like the clear third cut option in this offense. And, you know, he hasn't practiced basically at all in August. There's definitely something up with him. Waller somebody out him out on Kittle.

Where are you out on Kittle? I don't think you and I talk Kittl very much. Yeah, I love Kittle. He's one of my favorite players in football. I think he's the closest thing we've seen to Prime Grancowski. And I don't really want him at all in fantasy. He's just at a massive disadvantage. to everyone else because he's such a ridiculously good blocker.

He runs a lot fewer routes. He finishes first and yards per route run each of the first last four seasons, like ridiculous talent. But that's such a disadvantage. And if you look at his splits with and without Debo Samuel, he's really far off that oligarch tier. Trey Lance, I have some concerns. I think they go very run heavy, et cetera.

He's not someone I'm targeting. But I do love him. Yeah. I mean, yeah, I love the player, but Kittles. His playing style is also like, you know, Marshawn Lynch at tight end. So he is injury prone. I think that's like a valid criticism. Don't let Edwin hear you say that.

Edwin's going to be in your DMs after you said that. But yeah, I mean, if you look at CBS, ESPN, Yahoo, NFL AP, I mean, Kittle goes in the 40 range, which is absurd. I would much rather, if you're going to take a onesie position in the 40s, I would much rather take, you know, Lamar. or Kyler or Hertz. Like, that's, I think that's, like, maybe the biggest edge in ESPN, Yahoo and NFL leagues right now is Waller and Kittle are just insanely overpriced in those leagues. Let's talk through Schultz.

Literally, the only argument against him is that, you know, he's just not one of these, like, super athletic freak players like Kyle Pitts is or Kittle or even Waller to a certain extent. The volume's going to be there, man. You know, I just went through the whole thing with Dak. like they have to throw to Schultz. I think I know where you're going to land, but sticking in the context of this pod, you're on Kyler Hertz and maybe even lands over Schultz, right? Just in terms of like if you had a 1v1, you're in the 6th round. Do you like the quarterback's over Schultz?

I think it depends on the league. On NFL.com, and I released my guys, he was their tight end eight, which is just just so stupid. Yeah, I mean, I think I probably would, but I might just be loading up on running back some wide receivers in the other leagues. But the argument's easy. Fifth in fantasy points per game last year, much lesser target competition. He also started off the year in a committee of sorts.

And then they were just like, no, this guy's awesome. Back to Waller real quick. He's practiced like three times. I'm not a huge vibes guy. Like there's not much worse vibes than that. It's a brand new offense. And you hear Derwin James, one of the best safeties in football, talking up Hunter Renfro as if he's, you know, Calvin Johnson.

And yeah, so I've been low on both, but I really think, you know, the way this is trending, I need to be a little bit higher on Renfo. But, yeah, not drafting Waller, not drafting Kittle, Schultz in the right spots for sure, but he's not someone I'm going out of my way to take, except for on NFL.com. Bro, Renfro is going to go 90, 1,1006 and finishes like the wide receiver 23 in PPR, and everybody's going to be kicking themselves for not drafting him. Yeah, Schultz on him on Schultz on him on Schultz on him on him.

But really, like, for me this year, it's like, I want Kelsey. If I don't get him, I'm out on Andrews, out on Kittle, out on Waller. I like pits, but he usually goes just a few spots too high for me. I'm usually taking receivers in that range. So really, I'm spending a lot of my, a lot of my bucks on these guys past, you know, tied in six, seven by ADP. So let's talk through those real quick. Looking at ADP, too, like Hockinson is somebody that's, I think Hockinson and Dallas

Goddard are both getting overdrafted by ADP. They're both going in the 65 to 70 range. We just went through talking through quarterbacks. Like, what are the chances that Hawkinson is a league winner this year? I think you'd have to have some injuries around them. Same with Dallas Goddard. You know, both are super efficient players, especially Dallas Goddard, who finished second yards per route run last year.

But what does that really mean for us in fantasy? Like, AJ Brown is the alpha. Devontes Smith is going to get six, seven, eight targets a game. Very run heavy offense. Like Goddard probably doesn't have a ton of touchdown equity. I think Goddard and Hawkinson are two guys that are being overdrafted relative to their ceiling. Where are you out on those guys, and we'll talk through some late-round guys for real quick. Yeah, I don't know if Goddard has oligarch upside, but he is someone I'm actually drafting quite a bit of.

I just, I've always said, I thought he was amazing and it was just a shame. He was stuck behind Zach Hertz. But he was a bell cow tight end at the tail end to last season. He was Jalen Hertz number one guy. He was incredibly efficient. He basically tied Kittle in yards per route run, which is like the best stat we have. And he's just damn good. And he is a good value on a lot of these sites.

Hockinson, you can make a case for it. I think he could have smashed if he stayed healthy. He had eight targets or more in 67% of his games last year. That was more than Kelsey and Andrews. But no, I think this is the Amon-Raw-St. Brown show in 2022. too, so I'm not drafting him at all. Yeah, I'm on Ross. Swift is back healthy to Swift dealt with a number of injuries last year, you know,

get DJ Chark in there. Hawkinson's, you know, probably a good bet in bestball. I'm on Goddor for the same reason in basketball, but in redraft, like, I just don't think there's a big enough gap between drafting Goddard in round seven and eight versus someone like Colquette in rounds 12 or Tyler Pigby, who's free. those guys to me there's just not that big of a difference between okay we're projecting you know usually the tight-in seven

tight-in-eight scores like 11 to 12 fantasy points per game like Cole Komett Tyler Higbee, Irv Smith all of those guys, Pat Frymeruth too who I've loved all off-season like those guys are positioned to score similarly in my opinion Zachertz let's talk through Zacherts real quick last year once he was traded to the Cardinals, he averaged eight targets per game and all of his

starts that obviously got bumped up with DeAndre Hopkins gone. You know, Earth's is someone who is starting to slip in a lot of leagues, man. I've seen him start to slip into rounds 10, 11 in best ball. His ADP is all over the place too on some of these less sharp leagues like Sleeper and Yahoo. is there that big of the difference between Ertz to Goddard and Hawkinson for you? And if so, why? Is it just because, you know, he's old and Hawkins is coming back? I mean, if you listen to the Arizona coaches, they're hyping him up to get 100 plus catches this year.

And, you know, that's definitely possible. You can follow that Jason Whitten, PPR, Cheekote career trajectory. I think he's one of the safest picks. you can make. I do question his ceiling and I do think his ceiling gets capped when it matters most in the fantasy playoffs with D'Andre Hopkins coming back. And it's like everyone's excited about Marquise Brown and everyone's excited about Ron Dale Moore. And it's like this is a mobile quarterback. They tend to pass less. But I mean, just talking pure value. Yeah, I think he's a great pick. Is he a league winner? Probably not. Yeah.

All right, I think we can both agree that some of these late round guys, like Mike Gisicki, Noah Fant, I think Robert Tunyon is probably in this bucket too. Like I'm just kind of exing some of these dudes out. Like Gisiki might get traded here. Noah Fant, there's something up with his usage, man. I'm interested to see what the Seahawks do in their next preseason game this weekend. But like, Fant was running with, you know, splitting snaps with Colby Parkinson

and their first preseason game. then they got Will Disley back in their last one. He's someone I'm exing out. Robert Tunyon still can't run. I like him in bestball, super cheap, but especially attached to Rogers, but he's not someone I'm targeting at all on redraft. So really, like, it's kind of like a process of elimination on some of these late round guys. And then you look at ADP and it's like, I mean, Tyler Higby's free on Yahoo.

Cole Commet is free on NFL.com. Cole Commet's ADP on NFL.com is 193. I mean, he should be going in the 120 range. who's your favorite out of that bucket past like the tight end 12 range well you didn't mention my number one must own tight end and I'd rather we didn't discuss it you know just keep that behind the paywall for now and you were going to disagree with me anyway but you know that's okay but again this comes down to like ideal strategy there's there's three different routes you can take you can you can grab an oligarch which is just a massive positional advantage sure you pass up

some running back, some wide receivers, but huge edge. You can try and navigate the dead zone, which, you know, there was all that content last year about the running back dead zone, the tight end dead zone. So tight end six through 11 is way worse than however any, however much anyone thinks the running back dead zone is. But I mean, like, like I said, I like Goddard, at Schultz, you can almost put in there or you can on NFL.com.

Love him. Zach Erd, same thing. And then the other route you can go is even full on punt the position. And like, no one wants to do this because you leave your draft and you're like, oh, Tyler Higby is my tight end one. What the hell?

And like, that's not a good feeling. But this is, you know, a shockingly optimal draft strategy. Look back over the last, since 2018, every year, there's been at least two tight ends who went undrafted in the majority of leagues who finished top six of the position. George Kittle, Jared Cook, Eric Ebron, Austin Hooper, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, Robert Tunyon, Logan Thomas, Rob Gruncowski, Dalton Schultz. And so, yeah, we're not saying, like, Tyler Higby is this amazing pick.

That's why you should take him. We're saying the tight end position is fairly irrelevant after the top three names. You want to be drafting running backs and wide receivers. And sure, grab Higby. Maybe he surprises us with that Belkow tight end role on a top three offense. But if he doesn't, you know, maybe you'll find a superstar off wave. seemingly every year. You could find two superstar tight ends off of waivers. And yeah, Higbee wouldn't be my favorite. Cole commets in that range. Pat Friar moves in that range. I mean, this is a take I completely

stole. It's like the only take I've completely ripped off from someone else. Curtis Patrick was in my DMs. And he was hyping up Hayden Hearst. And I was like, yeah, I don't know about Hayden Hurst. He was like, bro, he's this year's Dawson Knox, who was last year's Robert Tunyon. And like, in that when he framed it that way, it just made so much sense where it's like you want this, everyone wants a piece of this high-powered offense and everyone's overlooking Hayden Hurst. He's free in drafts. Moe Alley Cox, I think, is in play given Frank Reich's history with the position by team tight end fantasy points per game.

He finished top 12 every year of his career minus one, top five, and like over 50% of his years. Only two games without Jack Doyle. He had like 140 yards in one of those games. Jonu Smith, I know how gross this sounds, but he's being hyped up to being the number one or number two target in this offense. Maybe 2011 Aaron Hernandez 2.0 with James Whiteout. Rob Gromkowski, like, imagine if he just unretires in week six. He's like, yeah, I wasn't about that training camp life. Then you have a top five tight end for free. And it's like, yeah, I mean, like, I'm not drafting John U.S. but these are just names to keep on your waiver wire watch list.

And again, I haven't even given you my number one must own tight end. So, yeah, those are my, like, overarching thoughts at the position. Yeah. By the way, I think Friermouth is right up there with KMet for me. I actually like Frieneath more. Scott, all time, there have been five rookie tight ends to have 60 more receptions in a season. Keith Jackson, Jeremy Shockey, Kyle Pitts, Evan Ingram, Wampwomp, and Pat Friarmouth. I mean, it's like one of the most underrated rookie seasons ever for a tight end.

And, you know, he's not Cow Pits, God forbid. You know, that's not what I'm trying to say. But, like, legitimately one of the most underrated rookie seasons ever, Kenny Pickett, I think, is a monster upgrade over Ben Rethusper. I've been all over this with Pickett. Like, you know, even if he's 10% better than Big Ben, like all of the Steelers, Steelers guys were being underdrafted. And I still think they are. You put Firemuth in that bucket is like kind of the end zone threat. You know, guy over in the middle of the field catch 70, 80 balls this year as a full-time player finally. Firemuth is probably my top breakout candidate. Scott,

this is great, man. We did in 40 minutes. We'll be back tomorrow with running backs and receivers. Going to give you some strategy thoughts as you get into your drafts these next weeks. Guys, thanks for listening. We'll be back to. tomorrow and we will see you in the streets. For Scott, I'm Graham. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.