Fantasy Football Daily - 2Barz - Drafting Scenarios with Evan Silva

Episode Date: August 12, 2021

Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) and Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) welcome Evan Silva (@evansilva) to 2Barz and go through difficult drafting scenarios like how to handle Saquon Barkley, Amari Cooper, Michael Thomas, Buccaneers WRs, and late-round TEs. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

One foot of money, two bars on the show, let's go. Swamprats, welcome back to the Two Bars podcast. I got to just say it right up to that, man. This is an exciting, exciting show for Scott and I. And for me too, for just me personally. Like, I don't think Evan and I have ever been on a podcast together, like where he's been a guest on my show. I'm pretty sure I've always, like, guest on his shows back in the Roto World days. But, yeah, we've got the Big Dog.

Evan Silva on the podcast today. Evan, this is a... Wait, hold on. I just want to chime in. This is not the first time Evan's been on one of my podcasts. True. So, so the podcast with, you know, that you, me and Johnny do for DFS each week, that started back in the day as the DFS power hour podcast. Oh my God. He's, he can't, don't, don't spoil it. And, and so like, we would get, you know, only 100 listeners for every single show, but it would be, you know, like DFS pros, like the A Ravens of the world. Like the people who listen to it, like, we're smart, great guys. We just didn't get a ton of listeners.

And so we begged to have Evan on for one of our preseason shows. And he decided to come on. It was like huge to me because I've always been such a fan of Evan Sildas. And so he came on and I was so nervous for it. I hate podcasts. To this day, I still hate podcasts. I had to get drunk for it because I was so I was so nervous I'm like I need a beer to take the edge off never mind I need three beers to take the edge off and for whatever reason I kept calling Evan Elvin

I was like it was like Elvin Silva yeah I did it like three or four times and Payneau was like what is this just like a fucking big dick power move you had the Evan Silva who has 90,000 more followers than you and you just you just like yeah that's a great point Elvin But anyway, yeah, just one of one of my best friends in the industry, no one I look up to you more. The single greatest thing being in this industry, being a fantasy writer and analyst, is getting those drunken 1 a.m. phone calls with Evan, where you just bullshit for like an hour, two hours. Dude, thank you so much for coming on. We're really excited to just talk some guys with you. Absolutely. And the strong feelings are mutual with. with both of you guys.

So, but I, I came here to talk ball. So let's stop talking about me and let's talk about football. All right. We'll get to it, man. We'll get to it. So we kind of like, we want to talk through, you know, we've been talking, Scott and I've been talking to a number of guests just going through a number of situations. Obviously, it's training camp time.

We've got preseason rolling around this week. So we'll kind of just go through a couple of positions and talk through a number of like kind of just interesting things. camp has been taking place. We'll kind of reel it in with the news aspect. But let's get started with quarterbacks. So off the top, man, Trey Lance has been just skyrocketing of draft wars to the past like month and a half. I listen, I've been listening to you for all offseason like normal. I know you've been on the Lance train. I've been on the Lance train. I've been on the Lance train. Scott's been on the Lance train. It feels like everybody's just kind of like correcting

to where his ADP should have been. At this point, like how high is too high for Lance? Like where do you kind of have them in that like back in QB1 tier? You know, I'm doing an Apex Expert League draft right now with, I don't know, Sigmund Blooms in there and a bunch of other people through, you know, throughout the industry. And I was just on the board in the 12th round. And there are like a bunch of pretty solid pocket passer,

fringe QB1s available like Tom Brady was available. And he comes out the gates. should be smoking against Dallas and Atlanta. And in this league, it's very, you know, it's 12 teams and it's one quarterback, so you can absolutely stream. And even if, you know, let's say Brady starts to sort of signs of decline or whatever, or, you know, he runs into a patch of really tough matchups, you could just drop him and, like, people won't even pick him up.

So I like the idea of drafting Tom Brady and then just using him against Dallas and Atlanta, where he should be a top five quarterback in both of those weeks. And then his schedule stiffens a little bit and then maybe moving on. Yeah. But I was like, you know, I think I could stream my way through weeks one and two anyways. And then I think Trey Lance is going to be in the lineup for San Francisco. And Trey Lance, once his train gets moving, like, I don't think there's any stopping it. Because the 49ers are dropping him into an offense where he can just take off right away.

I mean, he's going to, I think he has a chance to have a Cam Newton type of rookie season, where Cam Newton was a top five fantasy quarterback in his first year. And I think that his upside might even be higher than that if they can keep Kittal, Iyuk, and Debo Healthy, which has been a challenge to this point. Right. But those guys are playmakers after the catch. I mean, they just, you know, Kyle will just dial up high percentage passes to those guys, run Trey Lance when, you know, when he sees fit.

and I think that Trey Lance can be an absolute monster in fantasy. So I wound up taking Trey Lance over, you know, Tom Brady and Matthew Staffer, guys that I do kind of like because I'm just, I'm looking for the upside and I'm willing to wait a few weeks if that's what it takes. At the same time, he might get the start in week one in that scenario. Then I think I've gained a lot of equity, get to use him right away against Detroit in week one. So I think now is the time to draft Trey Lance. I mean, that's the thing is like, you know, even though he, you know, his ADPs come screaming up the board here, like he's still, he's still a value.

My guy that I've been kind of liking, and it'll be interesting to see if you do this in our draft in this Apex League, the guy I kind of like pairing Lance with right now as cousins. Vikings get the Bengals week one. Cousins should be in a great spot. And if Burrow is somewhat close to full health, then that game could shoot out there. So I think Cousins and Lance is kind of a good pairing. I'm with you on Brady and Lance, Lance too. But yeah, I think, man, it's just like, it's a matter of time with Lance at this point.

I'm with you. I think Cam Newton's rookie season is probably like the top end of his range of outcomes. But, you know, last year it was, you know, Josh Allen was really like the only Konami code quarterback in like eighth, ninth, 10th, 11th round that had that like QB1, QB2 overall upside. And I think Lance fits that bill pretty much perfectly. on that same token, like, where are you out on Justin Fields? Is there like a big gap between Lance and Fields because of Lance's supporting cast and the offensive line and everything? Is there a big gap for you between those two?

Well, I think, I mean, there's not a huge gap. I have Trey Lance right now quarterback 12, although I'm going to have to move them up because I just drafted him as like the quarterback 8 in that draft. And I like to be transparent with my readers. And if I'm going to be making these decisions, then, you know, I'm going to build that into my rankings and my tears. But right now I have Trey Lance quarterback 12 technically and then Justin Fields. I think quarterback 16. Okay. So there's not a big gap.

You know, again, I don't think, I don't believe in the system and the weapons for Justin Fields quite to the extent that I do for Tray Lance. So that would be, that would represent the gap. But yeah, I mean, I definitely like Justin Fields. And I think that you can take a similar tactic with him, you know, grabbing your Kirk Cousins or Trevor Lawrence opens with a really nice schedule. Jalen Hertz opens with a really nice schedule. I mean, you can go as low as Cam Newton at like ADP QB 35. Like it'll be fine for two weeks, three weeks, Ryan Fitzpatrick.

So my question. Cam, Kim has one of the softest schedules in the league to open to, too, versus Miami in week one is a little tough. But then at the Jets versus the Saints versus the Bucks, that could be a shootout at Houston versus Dallas. So those first six weeks are real nice for whoever's going to be under center for the Patriots. And it seems like it's going to be came.

So there is a narrative early in this offseason that late round QB is dead because of the big five quarterbacks. They're all Konami code quarterbacks. They're probably all going to finish top five. you have this massive ceiling, floor, week-to-week consistency. And so late-round QB is supposedly dead. But I see so much value later on at the quarterback position that I'm almost never drafting the top five quarterbacks.

Are you kind of taking the same approach, Evan? I just think that there's a lot of different ways that you can win. And, I mean, you could even go to the sort of middle-range quarterbacks, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rod. I have in that group as well. And I think that you can win with those guys. In the early rounds, like, you know, if I'm going to go early at quarterback, it's probably because I drafted like Tyreek Hill and then I'm, you know,

at the three, four turn and I'm looking at Patrick Mahomes. Maybe I don't love the RBs that are available there. And, you know, the top end wide receiver talent has been soaked up and, you know, Waller and Kiddle are gone. And then I might look at Mahomes to pair with Tyreek or Kelsey in the first round. I'm going to let my early picks dictate how I approach my quarterback drafting in large part. But, you know, as I said, just in this, you know, I'm going to be likelier to reach a round or two for Aaron Rogers if I get Devante Adams up top. Or, you know, Tyler Lockett, if I get, you know, him in the fourth, then I'm going to be likelier to draft Russell Wilson in the seventh.

So I just, I let my early picks dictate the strategy at quarterback, but like I said, just in this Apex League, waited pretty long for a quarterback. And I like what I'm going to hopefully be able to build here in the early part. And then as I extend, you know, creating that bridge to Trey Lance. Yeah. What I've noticed in this year's Apex League is quarterbacks went off the board way earlier than they usually do. I mean, there were years in this draft, man. I'm sure you remember, like, you know, I mean, Mahomes would go in like the sixth, you know, Wilson would go in like the ninth.

And now this year we've kind of seen, and I was a part of that, I took Lamar in the sixth once that running back and receiver pool dries up. And that's kind of the way I've been approaching is like if, you know, the backs dry up, if the receivers dry up and those mid-round, I think it's like the perfect spot to take a Lamar, a Josh Allen. Kyler's been dipping a little. I love Dak too. So really just that whole, that whole middle ground. But Lamar's kind of been my guy if I go that route there. I want to ask you. Well, he kind of goes at the end of that first quarterback tier.

Who's that one? And you can pair them up real easily. I mean, I think Mark Andrews goes a little bit too late. Yeah. No one wants Marquis Brown at this point because he's got the hamstring injury. Rashad Bateman. It's hurt. I've backed off Lamar a little bit, but still, I mean, he's a guy that, you know,

he doesn't need elite weaponry to be able to have like a top 10 floor. Yeah. Yeah, I think that top 10 floor is already baked in with the rushing. It's just all about, you know, how big of a spike are you going to get with him as a passer. Before we move on to Bax and start talking with those, if you were on the clock and you have a choice between Tannahill and Lance and they had 12 turn, where would you have gone? Because Tannihil went to Reeves, I believe, in the 11th. Yeah, he did. I would have gone with Trey Lance.

Ooh, baby. Yeah. All right. Just willing to shoot for the ceiling. I do like Tantahill. Okay. I feel like, I don't know, on the show sheet it said, you know, why don't you like Tannahill? Well, I feel like I do like Tanna Hill.

I have him like quarterback 13, I believe. Yeah. And I think that that's fairly aggressive for him. I think that their past attempts are going to definitely go up, maybe significantly this year. Their defense is just. It's atrocious. They're going to be so bad on defense, number one. Number two, how committed to throwing the ball, you know, is Todd Downing going to be?

In relation to Arthur Smith, my guess is that, I mean, during his one year as the Raiders offensive coordinator, Todd Downing, they finished 30th in rush attempts. And, you know, I love the big dog, but man, this dude has a lot of carries on his wheels. I mean, leading the NFL in rushing attempts back to back and then being able to continue to sustain health. Now, I mean, Derek Henry has like never been hurt in his life. So it's kind of a tough bet. But I mean, I think that if he goes down for almost any amount of time, we're going to see a complete change in the offense. Darrington Evans and Jeremy McNichols are going to be back there.

You know, they're not going to be able to run the ball successfully. They're going to have to throw the ball out. Ryan Tannihil is a legitimate dual threat. You know, now they have more impetus to throw the ball more because they've got, you know, an explosive number two receiver in Julio Jones and Josh Reynolds, I think, is a pretty solid third receiver. So I think their pass attempts are going to go up by like 100 at least. Yeah. That's my thing, too, is like, you know, talent, the mark of a good coach, and Sigmund kind of alluded this on our last podcast that we did. He alluded to like, you know, the mark of a good coach is just like letting her talent.

dictate where the ball goes. And I think that's, that's the biggest thing is, like, they added Julio, man. Like, that is such a massive upgrade on Cory Davis. And Davis had a great year last year. But yeah, think about it. Just how ridiculous is Derek Henry. Like, over the last two years, if you include the playoffs, he has 807 touches, 870. He's gone for over 4,400 scrimand yards and scored 37, I believe 37 TDs over the last two years. I mean, just a monster. But yeah, like you said, even even day back to his days at Yule in high school, man, he's just been always handling huge workloads. So let's transition to the back.

So like, you know, you seem a little bit lower on Henry because of everything we just laid out with the Titans and their defense. I just to add to that. So in addition to like the tread on his tires and the concerns there, the biggest negative, you know, our thing to worry about with Henry for me is is definitely game script. like Tennessee dramatically overachieve last season. They won 11 games, which is 2.5 more than their Vegas implied total. And Vegas is predicting, you know, a step back this year, just nine wins in a 17 game season. And so Henry through over the past three seasons averages 22 fantasy points per game and wins,

but only 10.5 in losses. He's basically unstartable in losses. So if they just finish at exactly what Vegas, Vegas is predicting, we should expect his fantasy points per game average to drop from 20.9 to 16.6. And then he finished two wins below that, 15.3. So that's a big concern with Henry and specifically those game script dependent workhorse running backs who don't catch passes like a Nick Chubb, maybe Jonathan Taylor. Yeah. If they finished just at what their Pythagorean expectation last year was he probably loses a significant chunk off of what he scored.

So, yeah, I'm below market on it. I mean, are you guys too? Yeah, so I mean, he's fine in baseball, but starts it. I'm really going to have near zero exposure. And then Sylva, you and me, we're going to be playing him, you know, heavy in DFS in weeks Tennessee is heavily favored and he'll make us a bunch of money there. But I think that's the smarter way to play him. Yeah, hell yeah. The one thing that's a saving grace with Henry is that AFC South sucks, you know?

Right, right. I like the Jags. Like, I like the Jags. I kind of like them to beat their win total a little bit, but I mean, that division's not very good. No, that's really bad. The Texans are the worst team in the league. The Colts, I know that there was a report out today that Wents and Nelson are going to be ready for week one. But I don't think the Colts are going to be very good either way.

I mean, Carson Wentz is not good. Like, this is not. And then he's going to be restricted in terms of his mobility. coming back from this foot injury. And he's going to be without us. He's going to have Sam Tevey at left tackle. Yeah. So this is,

I mean, this is problematic. And if you look at their early season schedule, they're going to start slow. I think they're going to start like two and five. I mean, you're absolutely right. That's the big saving grace for Derek Henry

and for the Titans in general that the rest of the division is bad. Yeah. Actually, Graham, did you take Derek Henry in this apex draft? I forget. I did. I took him. at RB4 and that was like so like you know I saw Danny and Mike Brody and

freaking Sean or three four and five and I got the eighth pick I was like oh shit I might actually be able to get a decent receiver and then of course those guys went nuts on receivers so yeah I got Henry and Echler and then just like went nuts on receivers after that Echler where you got him in the second round yeah that could be nice robbery yeah could be nice and that's a great pairing I mean that's a pairing that you very rarely will get is Henry Eccler these days like Echler's back in the first round and 90% of drafts because, but, you know, this league is just different.

I mean, SIG took Justin Jefferson and AJ Brown with a one-two turn. Everybody just goes nuts for receivers. But let's go, let's talk through some backs some more. I'm going to ask you about Sequin. You know, we got cleared obviously this week, which is fantastic. Kind of was expected. I think some of the dip on Sequin has been a little bit, not, like just not efficient.

I think people have kind of overreacted just a bit. But that being said, I mean, beyond his health, there's some significance and concerns with this Giants team beyond, you know, Sequan's knee. It's, you know, Jason Garrett. Is Garrett going to be able to get all these pieces working together? It's Daniel Jones. That's the offensive line.

Where are you at on Seyquan right now? I have him at RB9 and the number 15 overall player. Okay. both of those are below market. You know, I mean, I love him as a player. I think his health is probably going to be okay early in the season, but the indications from the Giants and not just the stuff that's coming from like Jordan Renan and Sequin himself even that he might be eased in

or not even play in week one. I'm less concerned about that. I'm more concerned with what the Giants have done here. They drafted Gary Brightwell. They signed Devante Booker. They signed Corey Clement, who apparently is outwe. playing Devante Booker. They signed Alfred Morris, you know, who Jason

Garrett just, you know, cannot stop. He can't stop. He cannot quit Alfred Morris. So they've like, you know, planned to ease him in. So when he goes in there, he's going to be like a committee back, not a full workload back,

in likely a bad offense that doesn't score many points. I just, I keep coming back to it. Why Scott Barrett as the resident Giants fan I'm sorry, first of all. Second of all, why did they not even consider upgrading on Jason Garrett at offensive court? It was just like, yeah, we're bringing it back. There was never even a question.

Never even a question. Do you have optimism here or what's the deal? No, and I'm like the all-time worst Giants fan. I see some tickets for, you know, 15 years diehard fan. But yeah, these days, like I am. I'd love to root against my giants, play guys in DFFs who are up against the giants and make some money. Definitely, that's where my rooting interests lie these days. Yeah, Garrett, definitely a concern.

I like Saquan Barclay significantly more than you. I don't see there being too much of a threat with regard to a committee backfield. Like Corey Komen, Stanks, Devonthe Booker, stinks, all these guys. Stank, they're not an all-time freak. and Saquan Barkley, who is the closest thing to Christian McCaffrey when healthy. He's played on at least 77% of his team snaps in 27 of 31 career games. Like, you talk about upside. It's really him and McCaffrey when healthy and maybe no one else. But the injury is a concern. That's my concern. I don't know if you guys watched the Dr. Chow's breakdown on Saquan, but he, he,

He broke it down like this, and it was hilarious and great and very evident. He was like, Sequin's right thigh is 10 times bigger than my right thigh. But his left thigh is only six times bigger than my left thigh. And it's true, like you could just tell from looking at in practice the massive difference there. And you have to think, it's going to make it more difficult to cut higher rate, higher risk of compensatory injuries. And so that's where my concern with Saquan lies. but you could throw in the donkey offensive coordinator, and if he were fully healthy, he'd be top three for me, probably.

Yeah. Yes. Okay, I got to check out that video. Yeah. It's great. I got to see that too. But so, yeah, last year with Out Barkle, Jason Garrett ran the ball on first down,

plays not in the fourth quarter or in the red zone. So Jason Garrett ran the ball on first down, not in the fourth quarter, we're in the red zone, 57% of the time is the fifth highest rate in the league. Ravens and Titans led the league and run rate on first downs. How much are they going to do that with Barkley on them? Like, he's got his guy back. Like, he's going to, you know, he's going to opt for those five, you know, four, five-yard carriers with Barkley on first down every time.

Scott, you're you drinking milk? It's a protein shape. Jack, you know, maybe, maybe Sequin. to start drinking some more milk. Get that left thigh measuring up to the right guy. I mean, we're talking about bell cows, right? Oh, well done. Oh, well done.

Derry Sanders, Christian McCaffrey. That's a funny nickname. It never caught on, but it was pretty funny. Why didn't that cat? That should have caught on. That's like the best thing. Scott, you're great with the nicknames. That was by far your freaking Mona Lisa of nicknames.

He still whips it out every once in a while. Yeah, I'll whip it out. Yeah. One final point I want to make on. He is, uh, he is not like a Henry or Taylor or Chubb back that you were rooting to. Scott, I mean, like in losses, Sequin splits, you know, he loses like three to four fantasy points per game, but it's not like a massive 10 to 12 point drop. Like he's going to get his targets. So that's, that is the other saving grace. Like the giant suck. Uh, the giant sucks, say one. We'll get fed still.

Um, all right, let's, I mean, he played, he played one game last year and he saw 15 carries, nine target. Yeah. Brutal game script. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. And that's the upside. You know, it's honestly, he's honestly we don't really care if the giant suck i mean if they win five games that's completely fun are you guys taking them over jonathan taylor yes oh yeah yeah yeah uh how about eckler i am i mean i get the argument but i think it's really close i think i'm i'm with barclay i think i'm with scott on barclay there too yeah i'm definitely why do you sell us on on eckler because i know you're a big time eckler guy this year i mean i i i think you can catch 90 balls um you know And that's really where it starts.

I mean, you know, the OCJob Lombardi has the history with Alvin Camara has already compared Austin Eckler and how he's going to use him to Alvin Camara. I think that the offense has a chance to score a lot of points. You know, they're getting everybody back. Plus, they, I mean, they did a bang-up job improving their offensive line where Sean Slater, Bulaga is back. The center, Corey Lindsay, one of the best centers in the league. Matt Filer, a solid left guard. I was talking, we did a podcast with Brandon Thorne, I think is the best offensive line analyst in media.

He was talking about up Ode Abushi, their right guard. So all of a sudden, they might have five good offensive linemen. When was the last time a Chargers? I mean, they put Philip Rivers through the wars, man. I mean, this guy didn't have, you know, he had a good offensive line, I think, early in his career. But for the last 10 years, offensive line was pretty bad. He did an amazing job of masking it.

but go ahead. My question is how much does that really matter with Austin Echler in a sense that he's not going to be getting a goal line carries? I think it matters for the entirety of the offense. Like they are probably not going to run as many plays as they did last year. So they're going to have to improve their efficiency to compensate for the loss of play volume. And I mean, I think that they have a chance to be at least just as efficient, if not more efficient. and, you know, due to the offensive line improvements.

Mike Williams is healthy. Keenan Allen is healthy. You know, Justin Herbert, like, he was out there playing in acne last year. You know, he's got pimples all over his body, and he's falling out of control. They didn't even want him to start. Yeah. You know. They had to stab the guy.

It took Tyraud Taylor. Yeah, they had to stab the guy in front of him. Tyraud Taylor really had to take one. That doctor is like the hearing. of all heroes in Los Angeles Chargers history. He was like, these guys are idiots. Justin Herbert is so much better. Let me take one for the team and get medically disbarred by stabbing this guy. Yeah, I mean, you can make a counter argument though. Maybe it's a slight reach that a better offensive line is actually a detriment to Austin Echler. You know, Justin Herbert feeling the pressure less. He's less

of a checkdown Charlie, you know, hitting his safety valve running back. He's going farther down the field. But that's sort of what I'm doing with Echler, right? Just keep making these nitpicky arguments. Like Joe Lombardi, I think, is a donkey. You know, he misused Reggie Bush and Darren Sprouls. Yeah. Maybe it's an annoying committee where Echler only gets like five carries per game. But again, it does feel nitpicky when at the end of the day, this guy's Kamara Light.

And, you know, he ranked fifth in fantasy points per game, XFP per game last year. when healthy despite, you know, not actually being healthy and only scoring, what, one rushing touchdown. So to your Lombardi point, Scott, I mean, he might be a donkey, but in that one year where he was the O.C of the Lions, you know, so he was the OC of the Lions, they went 11 and 5, made the playoffs when it was like a total farce. Like their offense was in the bottom 10 and 12 of most efficiency metrics. But in that season, I mean, he fed his, Stafford fed his running backs.

He led, Stafford led all, all quarterbacks and targets. to the running backs. The running backs were in tight second exceptions. But that's the thing. It's like, they don't really have anywhere else to go with the ball. I mean, it's Keenan. That aligns with Joe Lombardi's, you know, affiliation with Sean Payton.

Yep. Where every year, you know, it's in large part due to Drew Breeze and the way that he plays, but still, like, they absolutely make it a priority to feed their running backs in the passing game because they think it's such an efficient play, which it is. Even though some analytics people are anti- running back passes, they just think you should

chuck the ball downfield 40 yards on every play. Yeah. But, I mean, you, when you have a guy like Alvin Camer who can turn, you know, a minus yard A dot into a 14-yard gain routinely, you know, I mean, I don't know, routinely, but, you know, often, I mean, I think that throwing the football to, and Austin Eckler is very similar in that thing. Yeah. No.

Yeah. So those analytics guys, like, just totally miss the point. Like who are the best offensive coaches in football? It's Andy Reid, Bill Belichick, Sean Payton, who targets the running back more often than any of their coaches, those three guys. Yeah, it doesn't factor in, okay, the quarterback was going to take a sack, but instead gets it off to the running back who gains three yards. That's a negative EPA play.

But what would happen if it was a sack or what have you? But anyway. I mean, I think that some of the ways that they do analysis is like they're not accounting for that like it's a for nuance and there's a four down possession. There's no context. The missing part is the context. You're just looking, they just think that, hey, you need every time just get the maximum EPA on every single play as opposed to understand that, you know, you also have to kind of move the chains. Exactly. You know, you have to keep the chains moving so that you can get

to a situation where you can throw the ball downfield with comfort 40 yards, you know, off play action, which of course is, you know, a great, great play for EPA. But, I mean, you have to keep the chains move. Yeah, and to Scott's point about sacks and stuff and checking down to backs, like, you know, a sack on a second and seven play, a sack of eight yards is basically a turnover. Like, very, very rarely are you going to get a third and 18, a third and 18 first down? Like, that is basically a sacks are essentially turnovers on second downs, especially, you know. So that's the other aspect is like you can't, you can't just chuck the ball to your receivers and tight ends on every play.

And yeah, I mean, in general, of course, like running backs are going to average few years. yards per reception of fewer lower EPA than receivers. I mean, that's just the nature of target, but it doesn't factor in that missing context we're talking about. All right. So just real quick, I just wanted to make a point on Joe Lombardi. He did, you know, really heavily utilize his running backs, but it was a disgusting three-way committee where Joy, Bell, was the lead back at like 46% of the work.

Reggie Bush, 28%, Theo Riddick, 19%. And so Lombardi compared Echler to Kamara, he also compared him to Reggie Bush and Darren Sprouls. Sprouls averaged 4.3 carries per game under Lombardi. And then Reggie Bush, he was averaging 15.9 in Detroit. The next year, Lombardi comes over that falls to 6.9. So that's my big fear with Echler, but again, it does feel very nitpicky. And at the end of the day, you know, he's probably a good play.

Yeah. The thing is, like, you know, they drafted Joshua Kelly's replacement in Larry Roundtree. Josh Kelly was one of the worst backs in the league last year. Yeah. You know, so, like, you know, I think that's the one thing with Beckler is, like, sure, he's probably not going to be a volume back where he gets 16 carries, like, you know, Camara has the upside floor. But on the same token, like Roundtree and Kelly and these guys are, you know, they're Jags. All right. So, you know, let's talk about a back who doesn't necessarily have the best projection for, for receptions and targets.

And that's Drell Henderson, man. So obviously, Cam Acres, devastating injuries out for the year. but everything we've heard about Dorel Henderson, at least all the comments Sean McVeyes said, and Sean McVeigh, for what it's worth, has always never been very truthful to the media about his players and he was playing time. So we got to kind of put that ten full of hat on him.

But on the same token, every time Mick Vez talked about Henderson, he's like, yeah, he can be a three-down back for us, but on the same side, like we've got to keep him fresh, we've got to keep him healthy. We've got to find some sort of mix where you can get him on the field for the right number, of snaps and when acres got hurt with that really bad rib issue in week two last year and henderson

played um you know those five starts uh it was he split snaps right down the middle with malcolm brown is you know literally 50 50 in terms of snaps so now Drell henderson shares the backfield malcolm brown's not got not there anymore but he's gonna it'll be some sort of split with either jake funk savior zavier jones or perhaps uh you know you know a guy that gets cut here and camp cutdowns the next couple weeks, Henderson is probably not going to be a three-down back. But how much, you know, how, how, in your opinion, Evan, what is like 60% of the, you know, the role in the backfield there for the Rams?

Like, what is that worth? Where do you have them in relation to the backs and also, like, the receivers that go in his 80P range? So I've kind of progressed in my take on Darrell Henderson. And at first, right after the Cam Acres injury, I mean, you know, we got Leonie's telling me it should be like, you know, a second or third round pick. And I'm like, they're going to add someone. You know, their number two running back right now is a second year undrafted free agent

who did well to make the active roster. I was impressive that Xavier Jones made the active roster as an undrafted free agent in a year with no preseason and very little. I mean, this is a dude that we would have been playing in normal years in preseason DFS. We didn't even get to see a glimpse of Xavier Jones. And then the third running back would have been, is. Jake Funk, who had like 150 career touches in college, like played linebacker for part of his college career. So, I mean, I was like, they have to add another back. And I still think that

they probably will, but there have been some indications that they might not. They really have talked up Xavier Jones. Darrell Henderson, they're not going to play at all in the preseason. like they're putting him in, you know, in bubble wrap along with Matthew Stafford. That speaks, I think, to the fact that they are going to be leaning on him as the clear feature back. Now, not a bell cow, but as the leadback of, you know, in a backfield where they mix a couple other guys in. And I think that they might add like, you know, a Benny Snell type at final cuts or maybe even trade. I mean, they're one of the most willing teams to trade draft picks. in the entire league.

So we could definitely see them make a trade. But I think Daryl Henderson, initially I was looking at maybe 15 touches a game. And so I had him in that Kareem Hunt range. Kareem Hunt averaged 14.8 touches per game last year. But I've upped them, up my expectations to around 17 to 18 touches per game and moved him from RB25 to RB18.

And I took him in the Apex League. I think it was in the fifth round. Yeah. So I've, yeah, I'm higher on Darrell Henderson than I was a couple of weeks ago. I still do think they're going to add another back, but probably not going to be a very good back. Yeah, they kind of have to, man. Like, they just, and, you know, Jake Funk was behind freaking Javan Leak two years ago. That's right.

You know, when Maryland, you know, had that split with Leak and Anthony McFarland. They only played a couple games last year because of COVID. But, yeah, man, I think I think you had to know on that. They got to add somebody. But, yeah, I'm with you. I've got, we've got Henderson on the site, we've got Henderson around like that RV-18, RV-19 range. I think that's kind of like the sweet spot for him.

All right, so, you know, you've got Derell Henderson's back end at the RB-2s. I want to talk to you about D'Andre Swift, another back with kind of like a murky-ish role, just on a significantly worse team than the Rams, of course. Like, where, you know, I think Dandre Swift has probably been like the hardest guy for me to figure out. Scott and I've gone back and forth on him quite a bit, just like exchanging messages between, you know, Swift and Montgomery, Swift and Sanders. Where are you at on Swift right now? He is, I think, RB20 right now for me.

But I'm with you. I think he's a tough guy to figure out. Is he talented enough back to overcome his situation? Number one, number two, how much is Jamal Williams going to eat into his workload? I think that actually the latter question is a bigger deal because Jamal Williams, you know, even going up against Aaron Jones, who I think is probably maybe one of the five most talented backs in the league, eight into his touches, 11 touches per game over the past few seasons. And he's a guy that coaches love. And, you know, this coaching staff, Anthony Lynn and Dan Campbell and Dom Capers and I'm, you know, They have like the most boomer coaching staff and like,

and really front office. They've got John Dorsey there, you know, the just football guys, you know, hardcore foot like hate Sashi, you know, absolutely hate Sashi are so pissed that the Browns are now good. You know, they can't believe it. And, you know, but they, I think that they, you know,

they are the types to kind of cling to a player like Jamal Williams and keep him working because, I mean, he, you know, he's, like, loved by teammates. He will pass block, you know, he's going to get every inch that's blocked for him, probably not add very much onto it, you know, he's not, he would probably not be a yards created star, but he would be a guy that, you know, gets what's blocked, and, you know, he doesn't drop passes and, you know, all these things that really appeal to coaches. Yeah, well, the one thing that also will appeal, and we know, like, old school football coaches love this is he's a great pass blocker.

That was one of the things I always got him on the field with Rogers. He was a very, very good pass blocker. Yeah, I'm with you. By the way, did you guys see that video? It was a press conference a couple days with Dan Campbell. He's explaining the media what he drinks like in his coffee every morning. He goes to Starbucks and he gets a freaking 20 ounce ice coffee, doubles it up with a shot. And he gets two of those things.

It's like a thousand milligrams of caffeine. He's like coming to the office freaking shaking, walking into the walking into the walking in the building. Dude, just a total, total lunatic. It's probably why he's trying to bite off

people's kneecaps because he's so freaking jittery, all that fucking caffeine. But, yeah. Yeah, man, Swift, Swift is so tough. So, so tough.

Such a tough, like, thing to figure out because, like, on the flip side of all the negative, like, he has that one saving grace as a great pass catcher

that could really elevate his ceiling and especially if the lion's stink. Like, made this point a couple weeks ago. The Lions win total is like five and a half, five right now. You know, top 15 running backs in fantasy very rarely are on teams, on bad teams that only win like five or six games.

Like the last couple of years, it's been like 20 to 25 percent of the top 15 backs are on teams that are on teams that, you know, win five or fewer games. You know, Swift directly fits that category. But on the same side, the backs that overcome those bad teams are the ones that are in Swiss archetype. They catch a bunch of passes. So it's just such a catch 22. And I think, you know, man, I mean, he's slipping to a point now where I've seen him going the back end of the third round, early fourth round. I mean, I think there's, there's a point where Swift, you know, you kind of just ignore some of the negatives and just take in, you know, that four of, you know,

probably 60 to 80 targets. All right. So before we talk through receivers, let's talk quickly about Niners' backs. I know you've got a pretty strong a sermon take. So I'll let you have the floor on sermon and most staring this back door here. Yeah, I mean, I felt like it was a strong take at one point, but now like everybody is like on board with Tremerman. So, I think that actually I'm below ADP at this point on him. But I have, and I've started to pivot to drafting Moester because people are now on Tray Sermon. So, I mean, I just took in our apex draft, I think I got Mosher in the ninth round or the 10th round. And as my RB4, I felt really good about, Rahim Moster is really, really explosive.

When he was healthy last year, that dude was scary. I mean, you know, the next gen stat stuff, I know it doesn't necessarily translate to fantasy production. But, you know, like each week that he would get a significant number of touches, like he's up there with Tyreek Hill, you know, in terms of like his speed and his breakaway speed and when they would get him involved in the passing game like good night you know i mean this dude is really really explosive and i think that he's a really good pick at this point i think he's like a screaming value pick maybe you know maybe one of the best picks on the board for where his ADP is right now whereas trace sermon i think usually goes a few picks before i i'm even willing to take him and i again i thought that i opened really aggressively on him yeah yeah yeah

Scott, you had a pretty good take on Bosteran Sermon, too. Are you still on both of those guys? Or as you're thinking changed? I know it was a couple weeks ago. Yeah, I like mustard a lot, a little bit more than Sermon, but he's actually going cheaper, so definitely wind up with a lot more of him. But I think he's good. I just think he ranked second best all time and career yards for carry,

just ahead of Bo Jackson. Jesus. He averaged over 20. Whenever you say that, let's go. Holy shit. Right? He averaged over 20 fantasy points for a game over, like, his last nine games two years ago. And then last year before his first of two IR trips, he was averaging like 22 fantasy points per four quarters, despite like multiple and multiple injuries.

So it's just a matter of like him staying healthy. He's the RB1 per the beat writers, although sermon's definitely impressing. And then the argument for sermons, basically, the argument for sermons, basically, the against Moster, which is just that the guy can't stay healthy. Yeah. I do think, you know, you give these guys perfect health for 17 games. This is the exact duo Shanahan wants. Like, Sermon is like the inside grinder type where he's going to, you know,

always get what's blocked and then some. And he's like super, like, Sermon has very good feet, like very sneakily elusive. Like it's not like a start-sop type of thing, like, type of thing like Sequin Barkley can do, but Sermon is like sneaky elusive. And then, you know, like we just talked to. about. I mean, most stair just is perfect outside zone, house, you know, house call runner. So, yeah, I think we're going to be looking at a direct time share all year. And I think we kind of all feel the same way that you just take the cheaper of these two guys because, you know,

neither one are going to catch a bunch of passes too once Lance comes in. And I think they're going to run the ball so so voluminously and so efficiently that there are going to be games where these guys both are at least RB2s, like maybe one guy's an RB1, one guy's like a a flex caliber play in a given week. You know, maybe they're both RB ones in a given week a couple, a couple times per, you know, per year. Yeah. I mean, I think that they're going to have an awesome running game, especially as soon as

Trey Lance gets in there, they're going to be kicking ass on the ground. Yeah, that offense, man, they're going to, they're going to, Shinnhan's going to quickly transition back to that RG3 plus office. Yes. That's, that's what we're looking at. And, man, that RG3 offense, they had nothing in terms of, talent in comparison to what this San Francisco. I mean, they're out there throwing a Leonard Hankerson and Aldrich Robinson.

Yeah. You know, and who else? I think they had Garsohn a little bit for a little bit. It was okay. None of these guys are even, you know, George Kittle, Brandon, I you can Devo, Samuel. Come on now. Yeah, yeah, Niners' offense is, they're going to fuck. We need to have this point blank.

That offense is going to go nuts. All right. So let's talk some receivers here. You know, we got, let's start here. Let's start with the Cowboys because Amory Cooper just got elevated off the PUP list. I've been pretty concerned. We talked to our resident injury expert, Dr. Edward Pores, a couple weeks ago on the podcast. And he was kind of mentioning like, man, like, this Cooper ankle injury is weird.

Like, he had surgery in January. He should not be having, you know, any bone or tendon structural problems into, you know, July and August, but he did, Cooper did get elevated, off the PUP list, great sign, he's got a month to get right before opening day. You know, we've seen ADP flip. I mean, pretty much consistently all off season,

it was Cooper going like wide receiver 9, wide receiver 10, then Lamb, like 14, 15, that's flipped. So now Lamb is the lead guy, Cooper's the two. You know, how, first and foremost, how concerned you with Cooper's injury, given his history of, like, foot and ankle issues? And where do you have him vis-a-vis lay out?

Never moved Amari Cooper down. He does this every year. I mean, it was two years ago that he missed all of training camp with planetary phasitis. And people were like, you know, doing nuts over it. And, like, they refused to draft him. He started going, like, fourth, fifth round and just got him on, like, all the teams. And he crushed. And there was never really a problem.

I mean, the thing is that these teams know the issues with these players. and they know how to manage the players. Mark Cooper does not need to practice. He has, you know, unbelievable chemistry with Dak. You know, look at the career splits with Dak and without. I mean, it's just so, so stark in favor of his time with Dak Prescott. I mean, he's become a pretty consistent player. I know that early in his career, Scott especially was, you know, apt at pointing out how inconsistent he was.

I mean, he had a pretty consistent year, all things considered last year, especially playing without that. reliable like 12, 14, 16 points score, even with Andy Dalton in there. And so I never backed off him. He's like a top 12 receiver. I did move C.D. Lamb up, though, into the wide receiver 10 range. I think that he could be like in prime, in his prime, Larry Fitzgerald, that sort of player as a big physical run after catch, studs, slot receiver who is going to play a little bit outside more. but I think that's good for him because it'll get him on the field more.

I only played 65% of the Cowboys offensive snaps last year. I think he could get up into the 80% range this season. So just really high on both guys. My biggest concern right now is that Prescott's injury, but it sounds like he's going to be okay. Yeah. Yeah, Glazer made it seem like

Glazer had a report before the Hall of Fame game. It made it seem like it's more like a baseball-type injury. And I guess they're just really just trying to manage it, which is pretty obvious at this point coming off. that ankle. Yeah, I just think, man, I mean, last year, you know, last year in those five games that DAC played, the Cowboys were trailing on like 80% of their snaps. Just for context, like trailing on 80% of your snaps, that's how often the Jags trailed last year. I mean, we know how shitty the Jags were. That Cowboys team were, their defense was just atrocious,

and they spent this whole offseason trying to remedy that. And I think they will. I think they're going to at least be, you know, closer to league average. So, I do think Dallas is going to throw a little bit less and probably not have to push the pace so much this year. But, man, everything is just so, like, it's just so sick. Like, the setup is so sick for Cooper, Lamb, and Gallup, too. That's one thing I've been keeping close eye on. And I kind of wish we were going to get, like, a full game of Cowboys. Like, just like, I don't know, a couple drives of Cowboys healthy.

But we're not going to get it in the preseason. That's one of the things I've been looking at is, like, they're moving Gallup around, too. Gallup only went inside on 6% of the slots snaps last year. He was in the slot just 6% of the time. So getting Gallup in the slot, even like 25, 30% of the time, giving them a few more like easy access type of plays. I mean, I think it just sets up well for all three of these guys here. Okay.

Michael Thomas, man, I mean, he just keeps sliding and sliding. I got my first taste in Michael Thomas this off season. He slid all the way down to like wide receiver. 52, 53, and a draft shark's best ball invitation I did a couple weeks ago. That's the deepest I've seen him go. But at this point, Evan, I mean, it feels like the vibes around in T and the Saints are just like nuclear at this point.

Yeah, I wouldn't draft them. Yeah. I mean, I think that 17 zeros is on the table here. Wow. This is not looking good. And I mean, I feel like he's veering toward conduct detrimental to the team potentially. I just, you know, now the trade rumors are starting.

They can't trade them. I mean, look at his, look at his dead money and look at his, and they don't really, they don't even gain, I mean, they can't, it's a really difficult situation, I think, for, for the team. And I've heard that they, that Sean Payton is to the point where he's just totally fed up with Michael Thomas. and he actually wants to prove that he can win with a bunch of scrub wide receivers. Yeah. And potentially two scrub quarterbacks too.

Yeah. Yeah, right. Peyton, man, he doesn't mince words, though. He's always shooting straight. Yeah, I mean, that was my thing. When we were talking about this as a group, when the injury, you know, we first learned about this, this newest surgery. And at the timetable, it's like, man, like, you know, we're going on year two of Thomas's injury at this point. who's to say that like yeah he's you know close enough to play in like October or

November but because he's on year two and because he wants to protect himself like who's to say he doesn't just like sit and also who's to say that like the saints you know they could very well above 500 start out five and two five and three six and three something like that they just don't rush Thomas back so yeah I'm with you only at the only at the deepest uh discounts am I taking Thomas right now Scott where where are you at on Thomas because we haven't talked about him to bit. Yeah, I mean, I think that's a great point. I think, you know, if he falls to round nine or whatever in an FFPC league where you

have to finish first of 6,000 teams. Round 19. 19. Damn. Silver, your last time. It is, it is very weird. Like, he was, he should have got that in February. Scott, you asked me a question before the show.

Yeah. You remember the question that you asked? Yeah. Yeah. This is. Okay. Okay. All right.

All right. Then we have her answer. Yeah, we'll leave it. We'll leave it at that there. All right. So let's stick with the NFC South here, talk through some bucks receivers, because I think they're super interesting the way these guys are going to drafts. Because they have like seven starting caliber wide receivers on their freaking. Unbelievable, dude.

Have you ever seen a team on this? You know, people keep focusing on bringing back 22 of 22 stars, which is great. Their depth is insane. It's unbelievable. I mean, they're the most talented roster. think bar none in the NFL right now. Yeah, it's not close. I mean, like, my God, man, like Scotty Miller, like he was pretty damn good in the playoffs last year. He was really good. He would be a very good rotational player for a team like the Rams or something like that.

He would play a ton, but man, they are just loaded. All right, so let's talk through the key guys, though, like Evans, Godwin, or typically going like that fourth round range. Evans usually goes before Godwin, and then you get the big dip with AB. Where is there, for, for, for, Let's start here. Is there a big gap for you with Evans and Godwin? There's a little bit of a gap. I think I have Mike Evans like wide receiver 15 and Godwin like wide receiver 19. But I've really been starting to think recently about flip-flopping them, not to get Evans to wide receiver 19, but to move him down and move Godwin ahead of him. because Evans is just so touchdown driven,

and he's probably going to regress a little bit off 13 TDs from last year. And I think that Godwin and Brady, when Godwin was healthy, they showed a pretty good rapport last season. And then you moved down to Antonio Brown. He's a guy that I've really been trying to stay ahead of ADP consensus on, and he keeps creeping up, so you've got to keep moving him up. But, you know, he's, if one of those guys, ahead of him goes down, which, you know, they both had injury instances in the past,

Godwin and Evans, then Antonio Brown, like, you know, cleared for liftoff. And he might, and he was pretty, he was a decent floor play last year, even though he was jumping in cold and playing behind Evans and Godwin for most of the time. So I think Antonio Brown is actually a really good pick and someone that I want to, I want to kind of prioritize in the middle rounds. I don't know, what do you, what are you, what are you thinking, Scott? Sorry, who were we talking about? A.B. and Evans and Godwin. Yeah, so I'm kind of just steering.

You're just finishing up that gallon of milk. Yeah, you caught me slipping. I'm just steering clear of Tampa Bay's wide receivers just because I have no idea how this is going to shake out. If you look at when Antonio Brown was healthy, he was basically seeing the exact same target share as Chris Godwin and Mike Edwarn Evans where it's this gross, perfectly even three-way split, and then Rob Grunkowski scoring some touchdowns. So I end up not drafting a lot of these guys. And, you know, Godwin could be a high-end wide receiver one. Evans could be a high-end wide receiver one. Antonio Brown could be back to the Antonio Brown of old. We just don't really know. And I'm kind of just steering clear of

all these guys as a result. Yeah, I think that's the biggest thing is like there's going to be the weeks where it's in Evans week it's going to be a goblin week my biggest concern i was talking to our got tom brawley about this a couple weeks ago when we were doing our franchise focus stuff and he made a good point about godwin like you know Evans has that locked in he's going to get the deep targets he's going to get the end zone stuff a b is you know kind of a mix of all three you know he's going to line up outside they're going to move him in the slot some whereas godwin is like strictly slot like he might just be like strictly in between the you know in between the 20s player which is fine i mean you can You know, how many times if we see Tyler Boyd with Joe Burrow last year

catch seven balls for 90 yards and be a strong wide receiver two without scoring? That being said, man, I mean, bucks, man. I mean, they throw a ton. They were, you know, top five in adjusting, once you adjust for game script, they were top five in the ass rate last year in all game situations. But, I mean, they've got three guys that are going to be in that 17, 18, 19, 21 percent target share range. And there's going to be weeks where, you know, Godwin is just like.

like an afterthought because he does not get those high value targets like Evans. Evans does. But yeah, it's tough, man. That's definitely- Would you rather have, as your starting three-receiver set, Tyrell Williams, Rashad Perryman, and Amman-Raw, St. Brown, or Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, and Jalen Darden or Justin Watson, you could pick. Damn. That's great.

I know. honestly, it's close enough. Like, I would still- The second team, the receiver set for the Bucks. I know, it's crazy. I would probably just give the slight edge of the lines because Paramount and Williams are like speedsters. But, man, I mean, that is, that's how it is, man.

I mean, Cameron Brate, man, Cameron Bray would start as a number two tied in on pretty much- under the other team, bro. Yeah, I mean, Tanner Hudson. All freaking good. All right. So Bucks receivers, wanted to also talk to you about Broncos receivers, because I think it's kind of a similar situation with kind of a murky target share between all

their guys. And we can kind of throw no offense into this too. So Sutton's coming off the ACL. There was that one like kind of negative report. We saw like come out like the first week of camp that Sutton just kind of doesn't look right. But ever since then, I've read nothing but positive news about Sutton. So I think that was just like one beat writer's bad opinion. And maybe Sutton just was knocking off some dust. Sutton is also right in that prime spot, like, nine, ten months removed from the ACL. So Sutton, first Judy, versus Fan, like, where are you kind of at with these Broncos guys? And, like, is the biggest question of all, like, who starts? Because Drew Locke was awful last year.

Yeah, my qualitative analysis here is that Drew Locke is better for Cortland Sutton. It's based a little bit in data because if you go back to Drew Locke's five starts, 2019 before Cortland Sutton season last year was a wash. But in 2019, Drew Locke targeted Cortland Sutton, more than any other Broncos pass catcher. You know, Coralyn Sutton led the team and all receiving categories during Drew Locke's five starts. But it's mainly because the qualitative analysis is that Drew Locke is willing to be like a downfield chucker. And Coralyn Sutton is like a 50-50 ball winner, whereas Jerry Judy is like a true separate operator and Teddy Bridgewater needs to see it come open before he throws it and he's going to be a

little bit less willing to just chuck it downfield and hope that Cortland Sutton wins, whereas Drew Locke is a little bit more de-gath. So I think that, and I think that Bridgewater just fits the complexion of the Denver offense, the Denver team, because they're going to have a really good defense. You know, Von Miller's back. They've got four starting caliber cornerbacks and Ronald Darby and Bryce Callahan and Patrick Sartan. And, you know, I think they're going to have a really strong pass rush and secondary. And that's a great combo to have. And Vic Fangio, just one of the best, you know, the biggest defensive masterminds in the NFL.

That's been the case for a long time. They've got a really good offensive line under Mike Munshack. They've got skill position talent. They've got, you know, no offense. fan. I think he's only 23 going into his third year. And I think they're going to go with the caretaker. And I think that's more Teddy Bridgewater than Drew Locke, who last year in only 13 starts led the NFL in interceptions, fumbled a bunch of times. So I think it's going to be Bridgewater. And I have Judy significantly ahead of Coralyn Sutton in the rankings.

Yeah, I see it the same exact way. Go ahead, Scott. Yeah, I was just going to say, Evan, I think you broke that down beautifully, perfectly, the same way. as I see it. I was talking to one of my buddies at PFF, who was tasked with the obligation of charting all receivers on every single route, not just targeted routes. And he told me on non-targeted routes, Jerry, Judy easily led the league in a percentage of routes run deemed open by PFF charting. But on targeted throws, Judy was below average. And I'm like, wait, so what does that mean? He was like, it means Drew Locke is one of the dumbest quarterbacks in football. He's only targeting him when he's not open and he's open the entirety like the rest of the time. And when he throws it,

it's just like a duck. So it gives the cornerback time to like regain their footing or what have you. So it's just funny. Yeah, there's no way quarterback play is going to be as bad as it was last year. We were talking, Scott and I were talking about Judy a couple weeks ago. He was like, how do I quantify if Judy's good or not? I think he just did with that. that analysis but yeah i mean lock is just so bad man like last year that 46% catch rate uh on paper looks like what the hell was going on last year and then everybody points to the drops man and it's like okay that's that's like mental mistakes that jude's 12 drops which is a lot but that's 12 plays out of 900 yeah exactly you know so yeah yeah yeah exactly i mean Greg cole's talked about

this too like judy did not have any semblance of drop problems at alabama like he was always very short-handed. But yeah, I'm with you. I think they're going to play Bridgewater because that's the way they they want to play. It's just conservative. We'll see if Scott can pop back in here. But let's quickly, the only really tight-in situation I want to talk to you about because it's so straightforward, tight-in. That is, I want to talk to you about Pitts. We've been asking, we asked Signa Blum about a couple days ago, and he's like the number one Kyle Pitts truth. I'm pretty sure he's got like all the pits jerseys and the different colors. All right, so, you know, we know where Pitts and Hawkinson and Andrews stand.

I want to know where you're taking pits relative to the receivers in his ADP range. Or are you taking them around like Adam Thieling of those guys? It's just, it's a tough question to answer because I play in like a lot of different formats. And I do a lot of FFPC and then I do a lot of, you know, just traditional scoring. And it's so dependent upon your, you know, the scoring format. where you are willing to take really all the tight ends, but Kyle Pitts in particular. I have them, though, as I think tight end four. Yeah, tight end four right ahead of Mark Andrews and behind the big three.

So I don't know. That's where I have him positionally. I've got him in a Scott Fishbowl, but really other than that, I haven't taken a lot of them. I don't know. Scott, have you been taking any Kyle Pitts? No, no. I just think he's priced. at his absolute ceiling and right there's a there's a there's a tight end i like quite a bit going later yeah

oh yeah i like he's not one of your guys ever yeah yeah yeah no are we on tight ends already graham yeah i was just yeah sorry my my computer crapped out yeah i was just asked in silver how he felt about pits but um yeah i'm with you scott i think he's priced like right at his ceiling i mean he's got to like i related i was sick but i mean he's just got to completely smash that apie where he's behind Who's the late tight end that you like? Let's hear it. You don't like him, Evan. I looked at your rankings.

You sure? Yeah. Slogan Thomas. No, dude. No, no, no. I feel like I do like him. I just moved them up. All right. Where'd you move them?

I moved them up to the third tier among tight ends. Tight end nine. That's not high enough for you, though, huh? I mean, that's his ADP, but that's too low. I honestly don't like pits significantly more. I don't like Andrews significantly more. I don't like Hawkinson significantly more. I think you're looking at it.

I think that's fair. I think that's fair. I mean, the dude caught 72 balls last year, and I think his role might expand from last year. I mean, I've been looking at him. And that's why that was part of my emphasis for moving him up initially.

He's like, I think I'm too low on him. And then, you know, I mean, you've got the Scott Norop Turner narrative with tight ends. You've got, you know, Greg Kosell has talked about it that he said, I mean,

the thing is that Logan Thomas, is not going to come off the field. Like, he's going to play every single snap. His issue last year really what, when he got better every week, again, he was a converted quarterback. His first full year playing tight end. He got better.

He was better at the end of the season than he was early in the season. And the only competition they brought in for him was Boise State's fourth round pick, John Bates, you know, who, like, had 50 catches in his college career or something. Yeah. So, hey, you know, you can definitely build a bull case.

for Logan Thomas. My thing with Thomas, though, is, you know, they brought in Curtis Samuel, and they're going to run routes in, like, the same vicinity. Curtis Samuel has practiced, like, twice. Right, when he's healthy. But he's familiar with Turner, though. That's the thing. It was like he has a history with Turner and Rivera.

Like, they're going to know how to use him. Like, maybe not like he was used last year because Turner ironically used him as a deep threat in 19, and they had much more optimal usage for Samuel last year with a new staff. yeah. That is the concern that's not healthy. You know what I've been thinking with with pits though is like man if we're drafting pits to you know catch 65 70 balls 800 900 yards 8 and 9 touchdowns like that's the common projection I see dude just wait two rounds of draft mark Andrews like that's the same exact range of outcomes that Andrews has already put together in two years like that's kind of that's kind of where I'm at I mean Scott and I've talked about the

Sadnazian. We both love Pitts as a player. It's just the ceiling is tough. So one one player I'm with you on Silva is Higby. The one tight end you have over Thomas is Higby, man. I just see, you know, Rams don't have anything besides Woods and Cup. They don't have a clear three. They're going to rotate their three most likely between Van Jefferson, D. Jax. Two, two will play a little bit too. But we're looking at a rotation with their three. And Higby, Higbee was always the blocker. Everett was the move guy. They moved Everett all around the formation. Higby was always on, you know, always on the field of the blockers. So the same argument you make for Thomas that he's going to be on the field for every snap, you can make for Tyler Higby.

And you could also make the argument that Higby has, like, less competition for targets, too. So, yeah, go ahead. Lay it out for Higby, because I know you're pretty high on him. Yeah, this 2-2-athwell guy. I mean, who do you think's bigger, Davis-Matic or 2-2-at-1? Oh, man. Who do you think it would be easier to pick up? Probably 2-2. Probably 2-2. Probably 2-2.

I mean, he's 5-5, isn't he? Is Maddoch really that short? Oh, little, dude. I mean, but anyways, yeah, I don't know. I'm keeping my eye on Bryson Hopkins, who was a fourth-round pick in 2020. No, 20, yeah, 2020. He is last year. Didn't get on the field, like, pretty much at all in year one.

Johnny Munt. M-U-N-D-Mundit. That guy was playing ahead of Bryson Hopkins. But, you know, rookie tight ends, you often give him a pass for year-one. So I'm keeping my eye on him. And then this Jacob Harris guy, you know, people keep hyping up. Oh, yeah. Yeah.

Oh, yeah. Are you loving him? Yeah, Scott wasn't. Are you drinking this Kool-Late? Yeah. Yeah. So all-time spork freak, basically, like, if you treat him like a wide receiver, he's one of the top 10 most athletic wide receivers the past 20 years.

If you treat him like a tight end, he's one of the top five most athletic tight end. So absolute freak of nature. He's stealing the show, winning the day every single day at Rams training camp. He absolutely love him. I don't know. He's exciting. Sky high upside. You see at the tight end position, athleticism goes so much farther than it does with running backs.

He's skinny. But this guy's going to come in and be a factor in year one. as like a 220. I feel like he's going to go down with the first hit, and we're going to see, he's going to go on IR. We're not going to see him, you know,

until next preseason. I'm just, I'm saying like for Dynasty, maybe next year, the year after the next Darren Waller, Robert Tunyon type. It kind of felt like this is like McVeigh's project, you know,

like they kind of get like a Darren Waller type-esque player, you know, where he can, you know, mold for a couple years. And that's, you know, that's the thing with Waller.

I mean, it took him a number of years to transition from receiver out of Georgia Tech. to tight in. So I think that's kind of the game at McVease seeing us in Harrison. But man, this has already been an hour. We could talk a couple more, I'm sure. All right. I got one last question for Eva, Evan. I'm putting you on the hot scene. You just called him Evan. Evan, you used to call him Elgin. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Legolas Silva over there. Yeah. All right. So I'm going to put you on the hot side.

seat. Our last most recent guest was Sigmund Bloom, who has Elijah Moore somehow just as high or maybe even a little bit higher than I do. He has him like wide receiver 32. You have him last I checked, wide receiver 59. So when you, when you, we've hyped up Elijah Moore every single podcast for five months. So when you, you know, douse the flames a little bit. I mean, that's awfully early to have you know, any rookie receiver, I think, in an offense in major transition and not guaranteed of being in every snap player. I feel like he's going to be an efficient player when he gets his opportunities. But, I mean, when I'm looking at wide receivers in the wide receiver 30 range, you know, even in the wide receiver 40 range, I'm looking at guys that might be able to get me, you know,

10 targets in a game given, you know, here and there. I don't know if he's going to be able to get to that. With Jameson Crowder is a target commander. They paid a lot of money to Corey Davis. You know, Keel and Cole is a guy that I think is going to play snaps. Denzel Mims is still there. I think that I'm worried about them being a rotational offense where they play a ton of receivers.

And Elijah Moore has his moments, but it's more in like five target games, you know, four or five, six target games, then he just comes in and starts, you know, he has 120 targets as a rookie. Right. I don't know if that's within his range of potential outcomes, 120 target. It might be. Maybe it is.

But I think that they're going to get the ball to the other dudes quite a bit. And Michael Carter is absolutely a threat to catch a bunch of balls. So, I mean, I love Elijah Moore as a player. Reminds me a lot of Doug Baldwin. And, you know, I think he's, I think he's a ball, but I think he's more likely to have like a 45 catch, 650-yard, you know, five-touchdown rookie season than the upside that the guys in that range could provide. Yeah, I think that's fair enough. I mean, the thing, the thing with Morric he come to back to is, like, he's going to play outside, too. Like Crowder's strictly a slot.

So ideally, if they, when they go into 12, it's going to be Davis and Moore outside. and then when they go, you know, they're 11 and three wide receiver stuff, we'll see, you know, Crowder pop in this slot. And maybe more... What's Scott doing? Look at this.

Maybe Morgan a slot a lot of too, but... Are you trying to kill it like a fly or something? No, I'm trying to fix my light. My light bulb just went out. No, he's going back to get some more milk out of the brooch. That's what he's done. Got to go get another cup there. But, yeah, for real, this has been awesome, man.

Yeah. Lots of just lots of good insights, good context. And yeah, just appreciate your time taking an hour and 15 minutes out of your time in the middle of the week to talk to us. Thanks so much for having me, guys. By the way, if you're into drinking milk, I have like a little secret. It's how to make it just tastes so good. This is what you do. So you put it in like one of these metal glasses, you know?

Yeah. And you put a little ice in there. and you stick it in the freezer for like four minutes with milk. Oh, it just tastes so good. It's like you're taking it right from the teeth, you know. You want to talk secret milk? I live in Houston. I drive 30 minutes away to get raw milk.

It's like dangerous bootleg milk, but it's delicious and it's healthy for you. It's great. Amazing. Scott's out there bootleg and milk on the side. That's a milk out here. That's great. All right. We'll leave you guys on that note.

Scott and I'll be back next week with another guest talking through some stuff. And we got preseason games this week, fellas. Preseason. I'm so pumped, man. Full slate on Saturday. Got a couple games Thursday and Friday. So, yeah, it's that time of year. We missed out on the preseason last year and it feels even better to have it back this year.

But, yeah, again, thank you, Evan, for Scott. I'm Graham. Swamprats will catch you next time. Deuce is to the mean your boy is never regressing off season through this season 365 two four seven and it's one for the money two bars on the sh-one one for the money two