Fantasy Football Daily - 2Barz: July Underdog Values & ADP Trends

Episode Date: July 2, 2022

Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) discuss a wide range of strategy topics for Underdog's BBMIII including stacking, Week 17 correlation, and players that are values or on the rise. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

One foot of money, two bars on the show. Let's go. Two bars country. Let's rock. Welcome back. Two bars is back. Grand Barthielder, join with my guy, Scott Barrett. Scott, I see you trying to hold back a smile there.

What's going on now? That was great. Yeah, we were just talking about I-Robot Russell. Before the show. By the way, how tilts are you going to be when Timpads are you going to be when Timpads? outscores Jerry Judy this year. Yeah, I mean, you know, it's going to happen. KJ. Hamler, too, and maybe Courtney Sutton. I don't know what to do about that. That's like, that's the big thing is, like, I think there's the potential. It could go one of two ways. I think the most likely thing is, like,

the Seahawks were stuck in the past and holding Russell Wilson back and now he goes nuclear. That's the most likely thing. The other possibility is that, like, maybe Pete Carroll isn't as dumb as everyone thinks he is. And, you know, Russell Wilson's a little bit overrated, which is what Greg Casell has been saying for years. And so maybe Denver isn't what everyone wants, hopes they're going to be. But for fantasy, like, even if you act on the assumption that this is sort of akin to when Pete Manning went to Denver, it's like, who do you target?

Because they're talking about getting both tight ends heavily involved, like tight ends, like being the focal point of the offense. It's like, what? And then they have three stud wide receivers. They paid a ton of money to. And KJ. Hamler, who is a guy, me and T.J. Calkin's own in like every single dynasty league. We really liked him. And it's just, it's just tricky. I get a lot of Jerry, Judy, dynasty questions. And all I can say is, like, I think you have no choice but to hold and hope he was who I thought he was coming out. Yeah. I have Judy and our big, like, DFB invitation with, like, Barry and Maddo and stuff. And I'm doing the same. same thing. I'm just holding, but I will say I do love Tim Patrick this year. Like 12th, 13th round. He goes

in like the 13th and 14th round on NFFC full PPR. Like that's the gulf between him, Sutton and Judy is that that's just crazy overconfidence in my opinion. But yeah, I don't know, Broncos are real tricky this year. By the, I don't think we've talked. I think you and I are both lower on Javonte than like the rest of the staff and team. You're taking Barclay and chub over him, right? I don't know. I need to double-check my rankings. He's just, like, so tricky, and I'm getting flashbacks to Jonathan Taylor's season

ago where, you know, the coaches are all saying it's a committee, and it was a committee to start the year, but, like, just bet in the town. This guy has... The thing is, though, like, I hear what you're saying, and I agree with you. Like, Javante was my guy coming out, but the thing is, like, Marlon Max stinks and was coming off a pop to kill his. Melvin Gordon was good last year. It was. I mean, if you look at like XFP or yards per carry or whatever, like they were, they were dead even in all honesty.

Then again, you look at miss hackles force per touch, the most predictive stat we have. And it was like maybe the best ever season of the past decade. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, those are the types of guys we want to chase with Javonte. But I do think they're being legit when they say they want to play Melvin. Like maybe it's not 50-50 like it was last year. It was truly like 50-50-52-48. Maybe it's more 60-40, 65-35, but still I think they're being legit when they want to play when they say they want to play Melbourne. Yeah, didn't think we start with some Broncos talk. We were actually going to talk about underdog values and upside place. Scott, you just had an article that just came out a bunch of good stuff.

I believe it's free on the site right now. We're going to talk through that, talk through some ADP trends. So let's get started with that, man. Well, I think one guy that we're probably going to disagree with. Well, hold on. I did want to speak about my 16,000 word manifesto. Yeah. How to play underdog optimally.

Like, I really think that if you just read this article, there's no way you don't profit from their typical 12 team leagues. And then if you want to play their tournaments, I think your expectation at least doubles. You just read this piece. Listen, 16,000 words. I know. I get it. I have a tendency to overwrite stuff.

I think that comes from my background where like the best job I ever had, minus, you know, working in the fantasy industry. I worked at a hedge fund. And I just started as an intern. It was supposed to be like a one week, two week thing as like a favor. and it turned out to be like the entire summer. They paid me really well. They loved me.

They promised me at the end or when I graduated, they would have a job for me, except the guy who owned the hedge fund sold it three months before I graduated. So like sometimes like I think about like what my life would have been is there's so much overlap, I think, in like analyzing a stock. What I would do is like, all right, Scotty, I want you to analyze Pandora stock or mattress firm stock and do a write-up.

And the write-up would be super in-depth. It would be like 20 pages, all the statistical analysis, the background on the CEO and what have you. And then all the way at the end, there was just like a quick two-paragraph summary. And then I'd have to get it in front of the hedge fund owners and the analysts and make my pitch. And so like most of the time, like the owners would. wouldn't read it word for word. They would just read the summary. You'd hear my pitch. They would ask questions. And I'd go back and relate to things within the article. And so I think I just kind of have, I just kind of like do that with some of these like deeper dives where I really

overdo it. But if you're listening to this and you're like, dude, I'm not going to read 16,000 words. I do have the TLDR section all the way at the bottom for how to play their their tournaments, how I'm going to be playing their tournaments. And then you also like control F for various strategies. How does modified zero RB fair in comparison to hyper fragile RB, things like that, all the data is there for you. But if you want to just scroll the way to the bottom, I have the TLDR and like some quick hit tips. So that's that's what that's that was a crazy job to the, the owner of the company would have like the most wild mood swings where like the market was down two percent. He was literally like punching the wall, throwing things across the room.

He was like talking of his face would be melting off right now. Markets have been just shitting all summer. He was talking to, he would like legitimately talk about killing himself. And then whenever it was up 3%, he was the happiest guy in the world where he was like, Scotty, we're going to go, we're going to go sushi. One, the cheapest little piece of sushi you could get is 30 bucks. It's all on me.

You're going to get beer, even though you're not 21. We're going to go crazy. And like, I just like, I don't know how like anyone could live life that way. But, yeah, then he retired. and like he travels on his boat and fishes and catches Marlon all day. So he made the right choice. Yeah, no, he definitely made the right choice. It sounds like his heart rate is probably a little bit lower too.

But bro, if you went through, if you did the job at the hedge fund and also play Antonio Brown over Juj-Jew Smith-Schuster a couple years ago, you would have been retired in the Bahamas or something by now. I was telling Graham before this show started. I don't think God wants me to be rich. Not yet. Maybe in my 40s, but like there's just like so many. instances where, like I was saying, like a few years back, I had Juju

Smith-Schuster's rookie year. I had the perfect lineup. And so I put the most money I've ever put in in a single week. And I love my lineup. The only question was Juju-Smith Schuster and Antonio Brown. And I played Juju-Smiths-Schuster and the lineup won me $2,000. If I played Antonio Brown, the lineup would have won me $480,000. There's just like so many stories like that that, yeah, I'm convinced that God doesn't want me. be rich just yet maybe maybe in a few years we'll say yeah my what i want to believe what i want to believe and we'll get to this in a second because my follow-up piece is ideal underdog fantasy draft picks and so i want to believe that Antonio brown cost me you know $480,000 four years ago he cost me

$2,000 last year when he stripped naked on the field uh so he could win me a shit ton of money this $2 million in the underdog tournament this year. That's what I want to believe. I mean, unless you can find a way to, like, score Antonio Brown's fantasy points, like, every time he sits down on the sofa during the NFL season, you'll be a very rich man. But, dude, I know what you're saying would they be. But, man, like, I think it's over. There's no way a team breaks him back, bro.

There's no way. I, dude. I mean, I totally get it. But at the same time, like, he was playing with a bum ankle. They were broken bone, fat, fragmentation. ankle and he was dusting Jets cornerbacks with some of the filthiest moves you've ever seen. And he's just too damn good. Like if I were a GM, of course I'm hiring him midseason.

Like, no, no, I don't care what it does for the locker room. That's why I have a good coach in place to manage these personalities. But like, I did. Dude. A mercenary. Brady was his boy though. Brady, like, try. He tried.

He like lived with, he brought A.B. down to Tampa. And like, he lived, he stayed with him for a bit. Antonio Brown was the most targeted player last year on a. per route basis, even higher than Cooper Cup, and he still wasn't happy. Dude, he ranked top five in yards for route run. He, like, he has more yards for route runs since leaving the Steelers than Tyreek Hill or Cooper Cup. Like, he's so under, he's just too damn good.

Like, I get that it's like, you know, the, the crazy hot scale for women? It's like that with like, like, crazy, but so damn good. Like, Matt, put him on the Packers. The Packers have no one. Like, like, give them AB and, like, they're. when expectation jumps like 1.5 wins in my eyes. But like any team that's a playoff contender and it's like four games left in the regular season, like yeah, yeah, hire, yeah, bring them on board.

Yeah. Yeah. I have a lot of that. I have a lot of that in this piece. Like a lot of plays where like people are going to be disgusted by it, but it just makes so much damn sense. Like Antonio Brown is free. Around 20 pick costs you nothing.

I'm gambling on Deshawn Watson. at an ADP of free all day. You can full-on punt quarterback with like two, you know, Zach Wilson types. And then like he would be all you need. Like if he's suspended for the entire year minus the last four games, he could be all you need to advance through the tournament rounds at a price tag of free.

And then you could like leverage that even further by, you know, drafting Amari Cooper or Nick Chubb or even Will Fuller. And so like I made the case for Deshawn Watson. I made the case for Will Fuller, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Rob Grankowski. And so, sure. Yeah, no, like, I get it. Like, probabilistically, there are zeros. But they're still plus EV in my eyes because the upside, I'm not going to go all in,

but like the upside is more valuable than the downside is detrimental. I'm not with you on Watson just because I don't think he plays this year. I hear what you're saying. You take him as a QB3 and your 17th, 18th, thrown pick probably busts anyway. But I'm more so taking that with like Gronk. Like I think there's a legit chance he comes back in November. I'm also with you on Julio. I was talking with Edwin a little bit. And it sounded like the Titans kind of bungled the hamstring he had last year. And I get it like Julio and hamstring injuries like go hand in hand at this point. But yeah, man, I still think

Julio has some gas left in the tank. He missed a couple weeks in the middle of last year. Then I think there was like a Thursday night game. And he caught a pass. over the middle like this crosser. And he looked like he was 26 still. Like on that play, I was like, all right, he's still got the juice. But yeah, man, I think some team is going to take a chance on Julio in training camp for sure. And he's, you know, he's just continued to slip.

It's crazy. I mean, again, he's probably done. Yeah, he's probably done. Yeah, he's probably done. But prior to last season, he averaged 85 yards per game for eight straight seasons. the first wide receiver in NFL history with eight career seasons, let alone eight such seasons a row. He also ranked top five in yards per outrun each of those eight seasons. Put him in at late. Put him in Indianapolis. Pair him back up with Matt Ryan. And he could still be, you know,

easy fantasy wide receiver too, or like the upside's still there. And like, you're not going to get that upside from anyone else with his price tag, which is ADP wide receiver 84 on underdial. Yeah. And I think, I think that's one thing that you always, you always, you always do a good job in your writing of is like explaining okay would you what's the likelihood that Julio Jones is not dust comes back and he's like a borderline lead winner like maybe eight to 10 percent okay what's the chance that Donovan people's Jones in the 17th 18th round is a lead winner like maybe that's in one percent like everyone on the Browns would have to die like Omar Cooper would have to die David Bell would have to be bust like that that's the way you got

to be thinking through these tournaments. Like, yeah, sure. And like a normal redraft league, I'm probably not even going to like think about any of these dudes, like Julio, Watson, all those guys. I'm not going to think about these guys. But in a tournament where you're playing for variance and you're building teams like you build a DFS team. Yeah, man, I'm 100% with you. And I think that's one thing you've got to really think about when you're building your teams, is thinking probabilistically, like, especially in the late rounds and especially with your late round picks in terms of like mixing and exposures and kind of building uniquely like on every single Lamar Jackson team like you should be trying to complete a stack at the end with Devin Duvernay

or Tyler Wallace like just making sure like just taking these like end of 18th round guys who barely get drafted and making sure you're having like just at least one or two pieces that are unique and yeah man I think I think you always do a good job of that but let's talk more beyond like tournament stuff let's talk some of those values in upside plays yeah so just in this article i just want to tell the reader i outlined it in three sections the first section is just pure values and then the next section is upside plays and then the third section looks at week 17 matchups i know a lot of people say oh you know we can't really predict anything but for some of these i think we really can just like you know uh kiler murray versus Atlanta which has been a

bottom three defense against fantasy quarterbacks for three straight seasons, David Montgomery against the Lions, things like that. So I talk about that. And also I look at Vegas lines for extremely game script sensitive players like Aaron Jones averages 9.5 more fantasy points per game and wins than losses over the last three seasons. And they're massive favorites in Week 17. So things like that. Yeah. I think for what it's worth, I've kind of poked fun that's on Twitter. I don't think, like, some of the week 17 analysis is, is bad. Like, not all of it's bad.

Like, what you just said, like, Kyler gets a great matchup. I can't remember the guy's name. Who's that back? I was looking at earlier. He gets, I can't remember. But, like, looking at that kind of lens, like, from a macro lens. But, like, if you're sitting here trying to game stack a week 17 game, like, some of these stacks that we're trying to hit are going to be complete duds,

like these just team stacks. They're not going to work out. Like, I think it's like the most arrogant analysis to try and game stack a week 17 game. Like, you have to be in the top 0.001%. Basically, you have a 0% chance in Bestball Mania 2 of reaching week 17. You got to score enough points to even get there. Do you get in advance? I don't know, man.

Like, you're trying to stack up these like, whatever, Jets, Seahawks games. I think it was Bruce Hall. I was looking at Bruce Hall. I think he gets the Jags in Week 17. week 16 he gets the jaggs, week 17 he gets to Seahawks. Like shit like that. Like we want to buy, you know, rookie. We want rookies on our team not for the first eight weeks of the season.

We want them for the last eight weeks, especially during the playoffs when they're peaking. You know, looking at schedules like Bruce Hall gets a great playoff schedule. Kyle Murray has a great playoff schedule. Like that kind of stuff, that kind of analysis, I think, has a lot of signal to it. But man, if you're trying to like game stack in week 17, I just think that's in June. Like, that's just, it's arrogant.

like in my estate. I disagree. I think it's free upside. And it, it, like in DFS, you know, when we're making lineups, like the easiest way to take down a GPP is to have a team, a lineup that is extremely well correlated and stacked. So like, you only need to get fewer things right where you're like, all right, I think the Broncos smash in a pass heavy shootout against the chief. So I'm going to draft Kelsey, Tim Patrick.

Jerry Judy, Russell Wilson. And I think the Patriots steamroll, the Jaguars. So I want Deeming Harris plus the defense. So you're just saying, I only think these two things are going to happen. And you already have like 75% of your roster complete. And it's like pretty cheap, especially in the later rounds. And there's two, again, like this is what you need to be thinking about because the tournament is so top heavy where first place gets $2 million.

11th place gets $10,000. So that's $2.00. hundred times more to first place than 11th place. So like first place is all you should be shooting for. And week 17 is really what you should be caring about. So like you could do it this way with like strong correlation. I think it is a tiny bit overrated, but I think it is important and valuable is coming up with these stacks, these team stacks, these game stacks. But another way you can do it. I'm reminded of, I think big T. I think that's who it is on Twitter. But like a DFS pro a proven winner. He took down the Millie Maker in week one on Fandul a couple years back,

and he had a team without a single stack. And I know J.M. reached out to him. I was like, dude, what were you thinking here? You didn't have a single stack. He's like, yeah, I didn't have a single stack, but I grabbed all of the high upside plays I could think of guys like Deshaun Jackson and, you know, Tyler Lockett, who had their 30 plus point fantasy games. And so, yeah, again, you want to be stacking. I talk about in this article how much I love Kyler Murray stacks and Daniel Jones stacks a surprisingly high amount. But another way you could do it is like take these Adam Dunn style home run swings with a Deshawn Watson or Michael Thomas, Will Fuller, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Rob Grunkowski, where it's like, okay, let's say you just got two of those guys. You got Gronk and

A.B. or Gromk and Will Fuller or Gronk and Deshaunx and you got the them for free and those guys played at least for the tournament rounds and they came up with their typical production and that's just like a massive massive advantage over the field and these guys are going on drafted in a lot of league so it's it's a big leg up on the competition i hear you in a sense like okay if i've got burrow and chase already and that bills bangles game that's on monday night like maybe i bump up jameson crowder dawson knox like a little bit for that game stack like sure I get you on that. But in my opinion, I think it's way more profitable to just really focus in on those team stacks.

Like, let the, you know, obviously you have your targets in the first four, five, six, seven rounds. But then in those late rounds, you're really just trying to correlate your plays. And instead of focusing on individual games, focus on individual teams. One team I'm loving stacking right now is the Patriots. Mack Jones is super cheap. all of his receivers are super cheap. I think you can build an easy case that Mack Jones has upside for 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, yet nobody wants to draft them, especially on NFFC.

There's six point per passing touchdown. You get even more upside because obviously Mac doesn't run. I'm way more focused on contrarian team stacks and not necessarily just like thinking of different ways to build team stacks. It doesn't have to be a cheap Patriot stack, like including. Tony Pollard in your Cowboys team stacks with DAC and Lamb, like as a pass catcher. Like, obviously, you can correlate Aaron Jones and Aaron Rogers. Like, thinking through team stacks in just a little bit of a different way as opposed of like, I have to, I drafted Chris Olavit.

There you go. I have to draft James Winston. Like, that's, you're not really being unique. If you draft James Winston, Chris Olabe, and Jarvis Landry and Alvin Camara, that's probably going to be a little more unique. So that's the way I'm trying to think of it for underdog. and not necessarily just trying to attack a single game because I just, man, so much shit changes, you know, like I get we think we can predict the future, but this stuff is, it's just so,

so hard to predict. Yeah. So, again, I do think it's like a little bit overrated, like talking with Liam Murphy last year's Bestball Mania winner who won $1 million and going over his winning lineup. He was like, oh, look, like I had all this correlation. I had Rashad Penny game stacked with Christian Crick. Kirk and I had whatever. But like so many of those guys flopped and like the bring back didn't do anything.

Right. That's the other thing, dude. Yeah. You game stack this game. I just brought up the example with Burrow and Chase, right? James and Crowder could go out and have three catches for 12 yards and he doesn't do a damn thing for you. All right. But here's the counter example.

Here's the counter example. Remember, so I was talking about how that one week cost me, you know, a juju, $480,000. All right. Week 8 of 2015, I wanted to go all in on Giant Saints game stacks. And for whatever reason, I don't know if I didn't enter a single lineup that week, or I pivoted to something else the last second. But week 8 of 2015, Giants at Saints, that game provided us with the overall QB1,

QB2, RB6, RB9, Wide Receiver 1, Wide Receiver 5, Wide Receiver 9, Wide Receiver 10, Wide Receiver 17. and tight in one of the week. Imagine that game came in week 17 of the 2022 season. Who wins $2 million? Whoever has the most saints or giants. So like that sort of power law upside and potential exists. So like when I'm going to be making my teams, for the most part, yeah, I'm going to think about game stacks, week 17 game stacks and like use that to break ties or inner tier ties. but there's going to be some lineups where I just go like full yolo and just say fuck it

where it's like, okay, give me chiefs versus Broncos or Rams at Chargers and let me go all the fuck in on this. I think that's the point is you just got to like play around and and I mean make multiple lineups, but you are dead on right in that team stacks I think are more important, more significant, more plus EV because the argument I just made with saying, versus Giants, what about the chiefs in Patrick Mahomes sophomore year? Like, who won that year? It was basically whoever had the most of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelsey,

Terry, Kill, Kareem. And that's my exact thing, man, is like, okay, some of these game stacks that you're trying to get for week 17, the team itself, it might suck. Like, you might not even have a remote chance. You might be drawing dead by week nine. Like, seriously. I get it. And look, one thing I think that's helped me,

become a better bestball player is honestly playing more MLB DFS. I've been playing MLB with some success and some really bad losses, you know, for a number of years now. And one thing I've learned playing MLB in terms of stacking is just like it just honestly, like you kind of said it earlier. It's fewer things you have to get right. But it's also like when you are right on that one team, you win all the money. Like I don't really give a shit if I score 50, you know, Fandu points one night. I really don't care about that.

I'm trying to score 210. And getting one team right has the upside to like 10, 12, 10, like millions of times the upside as opposed to just trying to find the one-off value plays. And like, I think in general, ADP has gotten much sharper in fantasy. And I think if you were just, just kind of build your rankings off ADP and then just kind of like slide guys up and down that you're slightly higher or slightly lower on like in redraft you're you're probably going to be

just fine with that method but I'm telling you now I really think it's just trying to find ways to build slightly different four and five man team stacks um you know that that that's going to take this thing down I would actually love to get action down on betting against the the million-dollar maker for BBM3, I'd love to bet against that it's not going to be a game stack. I bet it's just going to be the best team stack. I would love anybody listening this that wants action. I would love to get some action.

So slide in the DMs. It's going to be Deshawn Watson stack with Antonio Brown, who later signs. I think they're playing the Durs, the commanders. So you've got to get Terry McLaren on that team. All right, all right. All right, let's talk through some values and upside plays. Yeah, let's talk about one of my values, highly contentious.

You hate it. I don't hate Zeke. I said this in my tears article. I think Zeke is a fine redraft play. I just think his 12 and a half fantasy points per game isn't going to get you a, it's not going to win you a million dollars. Like, bro, what's the likelihood that Zeke is, you know, Zeke was always the guy that was, you know, super consistent starting his career, you know, 18, 19, 20 fantasy points per game. Now that he's even older, he's been dealing with, you know, knee injuries, wear and tear.

Tony Pollard is completely outplaying him, running circles around him. What's the likelihood that Zeke is going to give you the upside of 18, 19, 20, 25, 30 fantasy points in week 17? Like, I don't know, man. I just don't think he's got enough gas left. I think he's a fine, like, hey, RB2, super-church. cheap. I'll take my 12 and a half fantasy points per game and redraft. What's your case for him for invest ball? Yeah. So the narrative against him is like he's declining back to back years with a career low in fantasy points per game, poor efficiency, Tony Pollard, way more efficient on a per touch

basis. And I'm going to get trash for this, but like all of my best ever takes were ones where I was super trash for having them. Christian McCaffrey in a sophomore year. Lamar, Jackson in his sophomore year, things like that. And the more people tell me I'm an idiot for this, like the more I feel confident about it. And that's that he's prices of the RB-16. He's never finished lower than RB-12 in total fantasy points. He's never finished lower than RB-15 and fantasy points per game with he has, what, four top five seasons over his last seven. And people aren't giving him enough credit for like the situation he's had the last two years. because two years ago, Dak Prescott missed 66% of the season.

Last year, he had a partially torn PCL for over 75% of the season. And still, he outtouched Tony Pollard 252 to 169. I love Tony Pollard. I think he's great. I think he's great at what he does. But we've seen time and time again with these like smaller backs. Coaches just don't want to give them more volume than just being a change of pace option. So I think if he can't, if he can't get more than a.

dozen touches per game while Zeke has a torn PCL, it's like not going to happen. Plus, they're getting an $18.2 million and like Jerry Jones is, you know, hubris out the ass. So like, I think, I think they're going to ride him. My only criticism of this one take is I like David Montgomery Moore, who goes round five, Zeeke goes round four. And I keep trying to go Zeke round four, Montgomery round five. And then like, Montgomery always goes to pick before me. And I'm like, shit, I should have just taken Montgomery. But still, I think he's a great value. I think all the risk is more than priced in. And I think there's a chance he goes back to the Zeke of old. My thing is, like, Pollard's touches

have gone up every single year. We wanted Zeke in the past because he never left the field. Pollard has earned way more passing down snaps. He's earned him. And for what it's worth, Pollard tore his plan or facie in his foot in that Saints game. Actually, on that super long run, I think he had like a 65-year-a touchdown. He tore his. playing a fascia on that run. He was not playing it 100% late in the year last year, too. So look, Zeke, at this point, it's a sunk cost for the Cowboys with his contract and everything. He's going to play. Obviously, you know, Dak loves him. He's his best friend, yada, yada, yada, he's going to play. Like, I just question, I just question the upside at this point for him. Another guy I questioned the upside for at this point. I just had one more comment.

So through the first six weeks of the season, he averaged 17 carries and 3.3 targets per game. He actually led all running backs in XFP, so the volume was clearly still there. And then over the last two seasons, when Dak Prescott was in the lineup and he had a fully intact PCL, he averages 18.5 half point PPR points through nine games, which would have finished top four in each of the last two seasons. And so remember, this is a half point PPR format. So, you know, Tony Powell are getting a little bit more past catching work, which like the beat writers are hinting at, I don't think is as big of a deal. That's fair.

That's fair. And for what it's worth, I mean, I could be totally wrong on Zieg and the health and stuff. Like Edwin's on your side for what it's worth. He was saying that, I mean, he was saying that Zeek should, there's no way Zeek should have played through what he played through last year. And it's an injury that does not have a high reoccurrence rate whatsoever. but it's kind of a unique, unique injury. So Edwin's on your side.

And like I said, man, I like Zeke a lot for redraft. Like, if I can get him in the fourth round and redraft, like, hell yeah. Like, I'll take his consistent, you know, usage. But I think for me it's an upside, upside thing. Let's talk through some Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, man. This is one, I think you're on to, like, the price gap should not be that big between Metcalf and Lockett. Again, small sample size, yada, yada, yada. But, you know, Lockett did have a higher target share in the games that Russell Wilson didn't play last year.

Compared to Metcalf, Tyler Lockett is also, you know, one of the few players in fantasy who, like, is truly like, okay, three weeks in row, he scores eight fantasy points, but then that fifth week, fourth week, whatever, he's got a 30-point hammering. I don't think, obviously, with Wilson gone, you know, the deep throwing, deep balls and will not be as good as last year. That being said, Drew Locke throws deGath balls. And I think Tyler Lockett still has three, four spiked weak games in them. And D.K. Metcalf, for what it's worth, if you look through his game logs, he's been a little bit more consistent, but not much more consistent. He's also kind of been a big spike week guy. The difference is you got to spend a fourth, fifth round pick on Metcalf where, is Tyler Lockett is a seventh, eighth, even ninth round. I just got Tyler Lockett in the ninth round

on full PPR NFFC as my wide receiver five. I mean, that's like, I just feel like it's stealing. I've not understood the Metcalf Lockett ADP gap for years, and I especially don't understand it now that Wilson's gone. Yeah, it's one of the stupidest things I've ever seen. With the past four seasons, he's never finished lower than 14th in total fantasy points scored. He's currently wide receiver 46 by ADP. I get there's a QB downgrade, but that is way more than priced in. True Locke,

like maybe that's not that bad. The one thing he does well is throw it deep, which is locket's wheelhouse. Gino Smith, I mean, he had a 28% target share with Smith last year, Baker Mayfield. Like,

I think Baker Mayfield's better than both of those guys. But really what it comes down to, for me, is like he is the ideal better and best ball player. over the last three seasons, he averages 29.4 fantasy points per game and his three best games each year. Across his other 39 games, 81% of games, he averages nine fantasy points per game. So it's either like Jamar Chase plus Sifon Diggs combined or he's wide receiver 46.

And like arguably no other wide receiver minus Chase and Tyreek Hill has this upside. And that's the only argument you need to make. If he has one of those spike weeks and week 17, it might be impossible to win the tournament without him like it was impossible last year without Jamar Chase. Yeah, for sure. And, you know, like you said, the QB downgrade is more than priced in. I mean, Sutton averages 30% fewer fantasy points per game. And Locke starts. Judy's around 10%.

Patrick was around 8% when Locke was in, or excuse me, 18% when Locke was in Denver. So, I mean, all three of the receivers in Denver were worse with. with Locke, but man, you don't have to pay the iron price like you do with Netcalf. Like, you're still drafting D.K. Metcalfe over Rashad Baton, Gabe Davis, your boy Gabe Davis. I mean, you're drafting him over a lot of, like, really strong, that whole ADP range between A-Rob, Amon-Ross, St. Brown, like, all those receivers, even the quarterbacks in that range, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow. I just feel so much more comfortable, especially with the quarterbacks to kind of complete or start some team stacks.

I feel much more comfortable with the quarterbacks in that range and a lot of the receivers in that range than taking that calf. I remember what we said 30 minutes ago. There's like a 10% chance Pete Carroll's not a dummy, and he's like a secret sharp. Like only 10%, but like, you know, maybe the Seahawks offense is better than it's giving credit for it. Noah Fant is another guy I almost wrote up. I think he's a good guy. I think you're given 10%. 10%'s a little too much now.

I think it's closer to like three to four percent, but maybe you're right. Yeah, one big, another big spike week guy. It's interesting, like all these chiefs receivers, you know, the ADPs on them, if, in my opinion, been out of whack all summer. But I think we're a lockstep on NBS as the chiefs got a target. One thing I can't understand, I want to ask you about this because I don't think you and I've talked to juju. How have we gotten to the point where juju is a fifth or six-round pick?

Like, how did we get here? His efficiency dude has declined every single. He averts less than one yard per route run last year. And now he's, he got no money from the chiefs. MVS got like five or six times more money. I just don't understand how we're drafted in juju in the sixth and Skymore in like the ninth and MVS and the ninth of tenth. It's like I don't get how we're here. Yeah, part of the reason why I like MBS is because I hate Juju Smith-Schuster.

And you know my $480,000 bias against him, but MVS got 15 million guaranteed money. Juju Smith-Schuster got a one-year prove-it deal with just $2.5 million guaranteed. And then Sky Moore, who I've maintained for most of the offseason, is probably just mid. He's probably overrated and like draft capital. He was, you know, he's being drafted as the rookie wide receiver three, but he's just the 13th wide receiver drafted in the NFL draft. And both of them are going over MVS who got all this money. And like, I think he is the wide receiver one.

But like even if I'm wrong, like he perfectly fits that better in bestball archetype where he has those spike weeks. So like even if I'm wrong, he's not going to hurt you. You want him in best ball. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the thing with the thing with Juju is like he might be the fourth target on this team. And I know you've been lower on Skye Moore. and that's fine.

You know, I hear what you're saying. I give him a big boost because the chiefs drafted him. I mean, it's simple as that. And also, I get it. I mean, we're also like, we're talking about Juju Smith-Schuster, who's been dust for years in NVS, who's never, you know, had more than like 90 targets in the season. But yeah. All right.

Last guy, dude, we'll talk through, you talk through some values here. Let's talk one upside play. You still think there's upside with Kyle Pitts at ADP. I'm going to let you start with Pits and we'll have it out over Pits once again this year. I did not expect us to have it out on Kyle Pitts. This is really surprising to me and disappointing, frankly. So I said at the top, he looks overvalued and I said at the top he has the widest range of outcomes of any player in his ADP range. But as I argued in the best ball, draft guide, and primer, having a top three power law tight end is such a cheat code in specific.

specifically the basketball format. And who do we want to bet on in fantasy? We want to bet on generational prospects, players with like massive outlierish power law potential. And I've only ever talked up three prospects as being on par with Kyle Pitts. That was Jamar Chase, Jonathan Taylor, and Christian McCaffrey. Chase hit smash big last year. Jonathan Taylor smashed big last year. Chris McCaffrey has only ever smashed when healthy.

And I think Kyle Pitts is next. And like, if you dig into his numbers, his rookie season looks way more impressive than he gets credit for it. Because he spent more time out wide than any other tight end and fantasy by a landslide. And he was awesome at it. He led all receivers in yards per route run when lined up out wide. That was despite having in the first half a quarterback schedule that was just as difficult as Devo Samuels and Marquis rounds. But now they've added Drake London to, you know, ideally take some pressure off. He was also flukely unlucky in the touchdown department. He fell 4.5 touchdown short of his

volume-based expectation that always regresses to the mean. If you spot him those missing 1.6 fantasy points for game, he jumps from tight end 13 to tight end five. And then on top of that, he ranked third in receiving yards among all tight ends last year. He became one of just two tight ends to ever crack 900 receiving yards as a rookie. And tight ends typically make a massive, massive leap in specifically their sophomore seasons. So I'm not going to go all in on pits, but I like it. And when I am drafting pits, I'm not sweating my tight end to it all. I'm going to save that for, you know, like a Daniel Bellinger type in the last round.

I'm just like really betting on him super smashing. And like, because that's his range of outcomes. He's either super smashes or he was a bad pick. Yeah. Yeah, that's the thing is like there's, there's really. really know in between with him. I guess my thing is like for Pitts. Mariotto sucks. Huh? Yeah. Mario sucks. Arthur Smith might be a donkey. Well, here's the other thing, man. Everybody's acting like Kyle Piss has no target competition. They just drafted Drake Lennon,

either of all. Drake Lennon is, he's going to sleepwalk to 90 to 100, 110 targets. Corderle Patterson ain't going away in his offense. Like he's going to, he's going to eat. He's going to get his, you know, 80, 90 targets. Like, You want to know something crazy? I don't think Arthur Smith has ever had a receiver with 90 targets. Unless it was Delaney Walker when he was a tight ends coach. Yeah, yeah. Delaney had a number of 100 targets.

But I mean, as an offensive play caller. I mean, that could just be Derek Henry and then the Falcon sucking last year. Yeah. The Delaney Walker comp makes no sense to me because, like you mentioned, Kyle Pitts is not a tight end. He's a receiver. Delaney Walker was one of the best inline tight ends of his time. He was a total freak too for what it's worth. But like four pits to smash, he's got to score at least 16 and a half, 17 fantasy points per game.

That's top two upside at the position. In general, with tight ends every year, there's two guys. There's two guys. And then there's like three or four guys who are okay. And then there's just a bunch of like replacement level guys where you're just chasing touchdowns. I mean, are we really expecting Kyle Pitts to join? that top two tier with Marcus Marriota and Desmond Ritter. I like making bets on it's a matter of when, not if, you know, and then just wait.

Absolutely. But worst case, Mary on too early. But with Pins is a matter of when. The Falcons draft Bryce Hall next year. Absolutely. Yeah. But, man. I mean, like, if he's, if it's week eight and he's top three among.

wide receivers and fantasy points per game, what are you going to say? You're going to be like, well, yeah, he's a freak of nature. We knew that. That's in his range of outcomes. And like my whole thing with like every article I've written upside wins championships, anatomy of a league winner is just like you have to play on those probabilities. What's the most likely thing to happen? That doesn't always matter. What's the medium projection? That doesn't always matter. What's the bull case projection? That's more significant to me. All right, I got to ask you here. Like, in general, general quarterbacks like we've got I said this earlier but we've got really good ADP's got really good like there's going to be moments like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett where you can exploit ADP but in general

like fantasy ADP especially an underdog has gotten has gotten really really sharp in general quarterbacks are much more predictable every single year like if you look at the last two years and you just sort by fantasy finish and then their ADP like 70% of those 20 guys who finish top 10 were going top 10 by 80p. Tight end is like almost the opposite. Like yeah, Kelsey's super consistent every single year. Mark Andrews is going to be fine. Kiddle will always be like top six, top eight points for game.

But in general, then it's like a total mess. You'll have Hunter Henry scoring double digit touchdowns. You'll have random guys popping up, you know, in the back end. Like Dalton Schultz was one guy last year who popped. In general, tight end is extremely difficult to predict. And we feel very comfortable that Kyle Pitts is. not only going to be a top two or top three fantasy tight end, but he's going, he is so much better of a bet than Josh Allen. You got to draft him over Josh Allen. You got to draft him over Patrick

Holmes. You got to draft him over all the quarterbacks who love and want their upside and access to their upside too. There's a massive opportunity cost in drafting Kyle Pitts. Not only just his normal bust like the Falcons might stink, Mario da, might stink, yada yada yada, there's a massive opportunity cost here with Pitts that I don't think a lot of people are really thinking through just in terms of predictability. And you're drafting them over quarterbacks that we know we're going to see. Josh Allen is going to smash. Like going to happen.

He has 40 touchdown upside, you know, rushing plus passive. Like, I, it's just, I just don't, I don't see the upside that everybody keeps selling. Like, I know Pitts is an amazing player, man. He's going to be fucking great. Like, it's like, he's going to be great. But maybe it's not until the Falcons. get Bryce Young.

Like, so again, this is unique to the underdog tournament format and FFPC tournament format in like a typical 12 team ESPN league. No, he's he's overvalued. I'm not drafting him. But in those formats, I think he's a great pick. And again, you have to consider with this how things change in bestball and especially tournament style bestball leagues. Quarterback is a little overvalue.

Josh Allen is a little. Kyler Murray's my guy, where I think I still have that. 30 plus fantasy point upside in the tournament rounds. But like tight end is so much more important and valuable. Like you said, there is that uncertainty and that risk. But the upside is more valuable than the risk is detrimental. With tight end in particular, you have two routes you can go. The best way you can go is draft either the number one highest scoring tight end

or the number two highest scoring tight end. And then you're sitting pretty. Mark Andrews was the most valuable player. Yeah, he was an undergone. format last year. And so, like, who is that? I don't know. What I'm doing is I'm having heavy exposure to Travis Kelsey. I think Mark Andrews regresses. I'm not really on George Kittle, T.J. Hawkinson, I'll probably be even the field. Cal Pitts. I'll be pretty above average just in this format. And then if I miss out on those guys, what am I doing?

Darren Waller, even in the field. If I miss out on those guys, what am I doing? The next best route you can go is to full-on punt with some late-round tight ends. Like last year, the only thing that came close to being as valuable as Mark Andrews, actually what was more valuable was Mark Andrews plus Travis Kelsey, which is crazy. But the only thing otherwise was getting like a gronk plus a Dawson Knox or a, you know, whoever the late round tight-end heroes were last year. And like having those two in the last few rounds, yeah, Don Schultz, thank you, was great and like super violent.

So that's what I'm doing. I'm either reaching at the front or waiting all the way to the end. All right. So I got a question for you. My tiers article, I have like a big tier six after Goddard, Firemuth, Knox, and Earths go off the board. Those are like your eighth to tenth round tight ends. I have this big sixth tier. And this is like the late round bucket that you're choosing from.

Irv Smith, Robert Tunyon, Tyler Higbee, Albert O, Cole Comet, Mike, Mike, Gisicki, Hunter Henry, David and Joku, and I threw Cambrai in there, but I don't even know if Cambray really deserves to be in that discussion. Of that grouping, who stands out most to you as a Dalton Schultz-esque upside play this year? I mean, I like Hunter Henry in this format just because it's half point PPR so you can get by on just like him scoring touchdowns. They're neighbors, Mac Jones and Hunter Henry and like there was a stretch and a touchdown in like A-ray game. So I called it the yeah, the neighbor narrative. And this is going to sound gross.

You know who I actually like? This is going to sound super gross. Tyler Higby. No, it's not. No, I think it's really, especially in round stacks. It's, I mean, he had the role that that we want for tight ends. He was a bel cow tight end. He led all tight ends and route percentage.

It was a top three passing offense. I get he sucked, but I mean, there was at least that one stretch a few years ago where he was like the best tight end ever. It was God, basically. Yeah, it was end of 2019, right? Yeah, and then he got hypes up in 20. Yeah. Do you have a new offensive coordinator?

Who knows? Yeah. No, I like Higby too. I think he's got double. I mean, he's definitely got double in triple-dong touchdown potential. The one guy that stands out to me is Irv Smith of that group. The Vikings need him, man. Like, Tyler Conklin's gone.

Conklin got 87 targets last year. That was 12th most among tight ends, by the way. They have nothing behind him. It's a lot of confidence in Irv Smith coming off a pretty brutal knee injury. I think he's like the one guy that stands out. We know we're chasing touchdowns with Tunyon. We're chasing touchdowns with Henry. We're chasing touchdowns with Kemet, even though we didn't score any last year.

in general, I'm looking for guys that have like 25% target share upside, kind of like, you know, similar to Dalton Schultz. And I think Smith is like the only guy in that bucket who fits that bill. Because I'm with you. I have the same exact tight end strategy as you. I either want Kelsey. I dabble on Kittle. I've taken pits in the fourth if he falls to the fourth.

I'll take Waller if he falls. But in general, it's like Kelsey or I'm just like. trying to build some two and three tight end builds in the late rounds. All right, I want to talk through a couple ADP trend guys, especially Travis ETIN. I don't think you and I've talked to ETIN at all, even through message. ETN was a fifth round pick in May, and I loaded the fuck up on that. He was going way too late, even in the sixth round in May. He's been gassed all the way up to the third, fourth round.

Obviously, the drumbeat's been really strong throughout OTAs. We've seen all the videos of the cuts that he's made. and, you know, all the Jags beats are salivating that speeds back, the agility's back, yada, yada, yada. I think we're heading towards ETIN being like a late second, early third round pick by August. Where are you at on ETIN? And, I mean, I think the positive drum beats been enough for the ADP to rise, but, like,

you know, where are you at on ETIN? And we'll go from there. Yeah, the truth is, I just, I really don't know. I was talking to Edwin at the tail end of last season, and he was really worried about Etienne still. And I traded him in a win-now dynasty league for Josh Jagos, which looks like a horrible trade now. And we didn't win the championship, so that sucked.

But yeah, I talked to Edwin a couple of days ago. I'm like, how are you feeling about Travis Etienne? He's like, I feel pretty good, like only moderate risk. And I've just like this year in particular, I've really tried to just admit what I don't know, and then, like, steer clear of unknowns and, like, only make bets on things I'm competent in. Players, I think, will smash. Players, I definitely want to fade, like Kim Acres and James Connor. And for the unknowns, I don't know.

Like, especially in an underdog tournament, it's easy. I'll just be about even to the field on Etienne. In a 12, you know, my own home league probably wouldn't draft him because he's an unknown and there's, knowns I like who I think have more value. But the truth is, I just have no good read on this situation. A lot of it comes down to injury stuff, which is over my head. Yeah, for what it's worth, I think you have the right attitude, man. I think in a lot of, I mean, you and I listen to a lot of fantasy stuff. We've been around for enough to know. Way more analysts need to be saying, I don't know way more. And that's been a huge thing for me. And especially we spent 10, 20 minutes

on the start of the show talking through stacks. That's the main reason to stack. Okay, you really don't know. You have no idea. So why not make your life easier in terms of team build? And if you draft Cooper Cup at three overall, get Stafford, get Van Jefferson, get Tyler Higby, make your life easier and just go all in on one team for that particular draft.

And then let the board come to you in another way. I will say I'm all in on ETN. He's one guy that I won on all my teams. and I can't get them. Like, I'm finding it really, really hard to get them. My thing with him, man, is like, okay, Robinson's coming off the popped Achilles. If we think ETS's role with Robinson is going to be like Alvin Kamara, Austin Echler with Melvin Gordinish, then on the Jags, that's probably like, you know, solid RB2.

But like, what if James Robinson doesn't come back all year? Like, that's a very real, what if James Robinson doesn't come back until December? And ETN's like the only guy. He gets the goal line stuff like Ecclard does now. And easy pathway to like 60, 70 catches. Like, I don't know, man, especially in full PPR. I know Underdog's not, you know, full PPR, but I'm loving some ETA. Yeah, and I think that does me.

I think I'm surprised you're not on them because I think the upside case is pretty, like, it's self-explanatory almost. Yeah, I haven't, you know. I've been written my Belkow article yet. I may end up falling in love with him just because, you know, like as a prospect coming out, I was like, no, this guy's a guaranteed full-on Belkow. Really impressive pass catcher. He's going to smash for fantasy.

I drafted him in a ton of leagues last year, redraft leagues. And like you said, there's no one there besides Robinson. And so that kind of dissuades us, I think, of some concern because Doug Peterson has a history of running back by. committee backfields and plus he this isn't the same regime that drafted at yen supposedly to be a wide receiver or whatever i don't know what urban mire was thinking but um who definitely had a really defined role for him that was bizarre yeah yeah i mean regardless though that's the who i mean in this situation with like the jags they really truly don't have another option like they need

playmakers in the past game still. I like Christian Kirk quite a bit, actually. It's like eighth and ninth from a pick as wide receiver four or five. That being said, I mean, they still have no juice. And I think ETN is that guy in the past game. What's that? What about Liviska Chanel. Bro, he's not going to make the team.

Your past catching RV? No, no, no. He's not making this team. I remember when people thought Debo's, or Leviska, Shannot was better than Debo Samuel. I remember when Leviska Chenal went ahead of Debo Samuel in fantasy last year, Scott.

I remember when I had 40% Debo exposure and 0% Levisca exposure last year. That's a good time. All right. One last guy. J.K. Dobbins. This is actually, I know you're in on Dobbins.

You're not in on Dobbins? At least in Dynasty, I know you are. You were just trying to trade for Dobbins in one of our leagues run. Yeah. So I like him in Dynasty, but here's my thing with running backs, coming off the ACL. So right now they're saying like the expectation is he's going to start the year on the PUP, which obviously, you know, that's not great for best ball, but you can get around it by

drafting like, I don't know, Mark Ingram who may be out of what is suspended to start the year. For what it's worth, not to cut you off, but I'm cutting you off. The PUP, nobody's talked about this. The PUP is not six weeks anymore. It's four weeks. So anybody that goes on PUP, it's four weeks now. So just keep that in the back of your mind. But sorry, continue. So I had this phone call with, Dr. David Chow, and I referenced it all the time, but I was asking him his thoughts on, like, various guys I was stuck on, and it was Dalvin Cook's sophomore year, and I'm like, listen, like I love Dalvin Cook. I think he's a baller.

I think he's just a matter of time before he starts smashing. Should I draft him? He's like, no, don't ever draft a running back, his first year back from an ACL, because you deal with multiple things. One, he's not up to par. he's not going to be his typically awesome self and there's going to be a decline in efficiency. But beyond that, there's a high risk of compensatory injury where it's not necessarily another ACL, but it's like an ankle injury to the opposite leg because you're favoring that.

And we saw with Saquan Barkley, we're like, okay, his left, his left leg looked like my torso and his right leg looked like my forearm. And it's like, yeah, of course he was going to deal with injuries throughout the year. And so I've just learned to stay away from guys their first year back from ACL. The question is, like, you got Gus Edwards coming back for an ACL. Maybe he starts on the PUP. Is Tyler Batty going to be a thing? I like Tyler Baddy a little bit coming out. But yeah, so in redraft, I'm probably searing clear. But otherwise, like, everything lines up. is like Baltimore, there's no way there's as pass heavy as they were last year.

You have a hyper-mobile quarterback, which means fewer targets, but it means like way better rushing efficiency, and that's all we've ever seen from Baltimore running backs. Plenty of, you know, this should be a good team with good game scripts, a good scoring potential, sustained drives.

And I believe in the talent, but, you know, he's still probably someone I'm avoiding for the most part. Yeah, that's the thing, though, man, like you're not having to pay the iron price like we did with Saquan last year. You know, he's gone, Dobbins was a fourth round pick in May. He's gone down to fifth, even in the sixth round now. And, you know, the dip is warranted.

I think fourth round for Dobbins was too much. But yeah, now I think we're getting to a point where the dip, I'm trying to buy the dip a little bit. I mean, I have a team, man. I just drafted JT at 101. I got four net at the two. 12 and then third round reversal. I came back. Dobbins was there on the board in round five.

I mean, you can get a JT four net Dobbins team now. And like, that's all upside with Dobbins at that point. Like, I don't even care if he's on the PUP list. I don't even care if he like misses the first eight weeks. Like with that type of team build where you can insulate Dobbins downside risk of any missed games or maybe start slow, et cetera. When you're drafting Ms. your RB3, it's a totally different equation. than when you're drafting as your as your RB1 as a part of a zero RB team or RB2 is a part of like just a value normal normal play.

Good stuff, man. It's right on an hour. We're continuing to crank out a ton of content at fancypoints.com. We've got literally the best ball suite is like the way I'm thinking of it. Between Scott's Underdard Primer, Hansen's had a bunch of good articles. He's put up a draft plan that he's updated. got my best ball tears up as a staff. We're just crushing it with our ranks.

We all have like 250 players ranks. So if you're playing deeper best ball, we've got you covered there too. Franchise Focus has started. We're six, seven teams deep now at this point. So we're slowly rolling those out. Tom's been grinding away in the betting preview. So we're really grinding away in the content here on the site. If you haven't subscribed yet, you should.

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Good stuff, man. It's a lot of fun. We'll be back probably next week, maybe the week after. with another show. And Scott, I was actually thinking about this today. You and I need to do like a two bars underdog draft where we just like, I know you and I are both not drinking right now, but we got to have one night where we get a six-pack, sit down and draft the team and just trash each other. I think we got to do that. We need this in the works.

It's time. All right, guys, thanks for listening. We'll be back soon. Catch you next time. Welcome to Fantasy Points Radio. We bring to you Barfield and Perrin All of these, all of these, all of these, all of these parents They hell and embarrassed like why did they air it?

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