Fantasy Football Daily - 2Barz - Training Camp News with Sigmund Bloom

Episode Date: August 10, 2021

Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) and Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) welcome in Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) from FootballGuys to discuss Training Camp news and notes, how to contextualize preseason, and they talk through two confounding early-round runners Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

One foot of money, two bars on the show. Let's go. Yo, welcome back, everybody, to another edition of the Two Bars podcast. We have a very, very special guest today, Scott and I do. We're going to be talking to Sigmund Bloom from football guys. This is the first time I think I've ever podcasted with SIG. I know, Scott, you guys have gone back quite some time. But SIG, first and foremost, thank you so much for taking some time out of your day.

I know you were doing your podcast today. you got movers coming in or appraisers, I should say, coming in your house. I know it's been a busy day for you. But, yeah, man, thanks for taking the time today. I wouldn't miss this for anything. This is great. Yeah. The whole thing.

The whole thing, I mean, we're lucky. A lot of us get to generate some income from doing this. But I think we all just really like hanging out. We just like picking each other's brains. It's stimulating. I think that's how we assemble our audiences. And, yeah, it's long overdue. You know, they've been a fan of your work for a long time.

And it's fun. This is the time I think that we're most stimulated, most people are paying it the most number paying attention. And like you said, we're just here to talk some football. Yeah, I just want to chime in real quick and just talk about what this specific podcast means to me. Sig Bloom is, without a doubt, one of my biggest heroes within the fantasy industry. I have a philosophy background.

I was a philosophy, political science double major. And to me, Sigblum is the Socrates of fantasy football. He is the mayor of Narrative Street. I just love how his mind works and how he can think about big, complex issues and break them down very, very, you know, logically. So after I graduated from college with my useless philosophy degree, I was stuck in a nine to five cubicle job and I was miserable. The one bright spot was they allowed you to listen to a podcast all day.

At this point in time, I didn't really like fantasy football. I thought it was sort of, you know, too easy or juvenile, whereas like fantasy baseball, if you're a stat lover, that's what you go towards, you know, their breakdown of advanced stats was so far beyond where football was, which to me just seemed, you know, overly simplistic or whatever. and somewhere along the way someone recommended your podcast, Sig, football guys, the Audible. And that was like a legitimate life changer to me where I listened to you every single day from that cubicle where I was miserable.

And I just remember being like, I want to do this. I want that job. That job is so badass. This guy, you know, he gets paid to write articles and podcasts. every day. That is so cool. And like just the way you broke it down. Like I said, it was fantasy football seemed boring and overly simplistic. But like with you and your podcast, you were breaking it down on a level I hadn't seen before. And then, you know, a couple more months of that job I hated. I eventually saw, it got on Twitter because of your show. You had J.J. Zacharisen on. So I followed

him. He put out a call to arms to hire writers. And I submitted. And I got. a gig with him doing fantasy baseball, eventually fantasy football. So I might not be here today if it weren't for you and your podcast. And still to this day, the one podcast, I get nervous. Every single time I do it is your podcast. But as always, always goes great because you are, you know, like I was saying, one of the most clear-minded thinkers. We could talk for hours and hours about everything. We talked for like 10 minutes about space jam before the start of this show. and ferrets and and and and and things like that. So I say just,

just thank you so much for coming on and I'm really excited to talk to you today. I'm going to use this opportunity to say a few things. One, philosophy degrees are not useless. Learning how to do inquiries, rigorous inquiries into the nature of knowledge and existence and reality, to me, that's the foundation of richness of life. I'm going to check my coffee for some hemlock here. And the other thing is, I love your story because I am glad that me doing this sent a message out to people like, anybody can do this. You can do this. There's nothing special. It's just the enthusiasm and passion. And I know. Yeah. Well, you're twisting my words around a little. That's me being insecure. That's just me being like self-deprecating. No, but what I'm really saying is like it is something that if you find that golden thread like you did, Scott, and you follow it. And as long as you're engaged.

it will lead to something, you know, and you keep following it and keep following it. And, of course, the universe is happy to have you, too, you know. We are all birds of a feather here. We're all birds of a ferret. Oh, birds of a, yeah. Inside you. Inside you. There it is.

Yeah, no, man, it's like, it's cool, Scott, because I had not heard that before. And it's so cool that what we've all drawn inspiration from to get to the spots that we're in right now. Because, you know, it's crazy how, you know, we've all been in this, together all three of us have been probably combined god we're probably up to 25 30 years all of us combined um and it's it's cool that you know um we still you know either just from the the genesis of starting um actually starting and writing for you sky or you know sig i still listen you know weekly it's you know we all gain insight and inspiration from from each other and what each other are doing still to this day so yeah i just think it's uh yeah

Yeah, it's just a cool circle of a circle of life moment here as we're heading into training camp. But yeah, let's talk some football here, guys. So, Sig, you're like, for all intents and purposes, I have your, I have like six or seven accounts that I have Twitter notifications for. And yours are one of them. Wow. You're just, you're always, no, no, no, none at all. We can talk about the rise and fall of Roto World, but yeah, I used to have them on notifications. Now it's SIG Bloom as one of five notifications, just absolutely killing it with this Twitter account, always on top of the most important, most valuable up-to-the-minute news and providing key analysis I almost always agree with.

So I think you're a perfect guest to have on to break down some of these. risers. You call it the steady drumbeat. And, you know, certainly one of my guys is apparently the next coming of Antonio Brown. We'll talk about him. Right. I know you're firmly on team Kyle Pitts. We'll talk a little bit about him. And, and yeah, we're going to have a fun show today. Yeah. And I think no pressure. And also shout out to my wonderful wife, Kate, who, you know, because to do that, I have to spend probably more time on Twitter than any healthy human being. should. We all do. We all do. But it's fun because it is an exercise just like we're talking about. It's like finding that golden thread separating the meaningful news from the stuff that just they have to put out new content every day at all of these websites and all of these different outlets. And there is a lot of meaningful news out there to find. And that's what I wanted to ask you about is like, you know, as fantasy players in general, I think one of the hardest things to do at this time of year is because, yeah, we're so excited that football's back.

Preseason games are starting. Guys are actually, you know, practicing getting ready for the season. There is a lot of noisy beat reports, lots of just word vomit from coaches, just word jumbles that, you know, it's the same, you know, idioms that you hear every single year. What's kind of your process for separating the signal from the noise? Because, you know, there's a lot to learn at this time, but there's also a lot of smoke screens that can lead. you down some pretty nefarious paths. Yeah, I think it starts with any kind of critical thinking exercise. And that includes knowing the sources.

It comes with time. You just get an idea of which beatwriters, which sources are conjecture and speculation, which beat writers actually, if they indicate enthusiasm, that's probably a big indicator because they rarely indicate enthusiasm, or they rarely put their own opinion in. So you start out with veracity of the reporter and the context of that. I think we always start with open mind about anything that has changed significantly, right? New coaches, new offensive coordinators, a new quarterback in an offense, anything where we know the reveal when we see it is going to be different than the last time we saw the team, the unit.

So we have to put a little more weight on anything we can learn about that. Confirmation bias is interesting because I think that I'm no speaking philosophy, you know, I'm no scientist of the mind, but I think that confirmation bias can cut both ways. don't dismiss information just because it agrees with your priors, but have a context to know that these are the developments. Like, say someone like Antonio Gibson, like we're hearing what we need to hear to confirm some of our prior assumptions, hey, if Antonio Gibson learns the running back position, if Antonio Gibson becomes more involved as a receiver,

now we're talking, right? So it's not bad if you're already high Antonio Gibson, and then you hear news that makes you hire on Antonio Gibson. But alternatively, maybe the most valuable information guys is the stuff and I know you're going to know what I'm talking about. It's like you almost hate hearing it because it makes you have to go back on your priors. But when you feel that emotion, that can be an indicator to you like this is important because I don't want to digest this. I don't want to process this. I don't want to have to back off my prior, but I'm getting

something that's organically making me do that or explore whether I should be doing that. And then Scott mentioned the drumbeat. Cecil, my co-host coined that term. And it's just the momentum, You know, like the reveal, again, the peeling back Salome and the seven veils, you know, each when a player continues to build that momentum, especially if you're talking about rookies, where it's the first chapter, right? You know, we're going to talk about some players that you can say, well, it's not a guarantee that their career is going to go at the highest range of their range of outcomes, but certainly in the stories we can tell where they're going to, this is how it starts.

Right. Yeah. I think, you know, just off the top, I think the fact that, like, I see a lot of this on Twitter, and it's really hard to kind of parse through. And I think it does, it's one of those things where it does take a lot of time and a lot of hits and misses. But one thing I always see on Twitter is, you know, you know, people will take a beat writer's subjective opinion and turn it into something that's viewed as fact, where it's like in reality, it's like, no. like, you know, that's just either one practice or a couple of plays from practice. You're looking at a very, very small window of a player's performance either in practice

or the way they are used and then extrapolating it to think that, you know, that's the way the player is going to be used for the rest of the year. I think that's a major, major pitfall. I see. But let's talk drumbeat real quick, SIG. I think one guy that's obviously been a massive drumbeat player, he's probably a, he's, He's probably leading the drum himself. Right.

He's hanging along is Elijah Moore. Sure. Yeah. I mean, all off season, we've heard in OTAs that Moore is, you know, was playing with the first team offense, looked awesome, you know, against running, running rounds against air in OTAs. You know, we always have to have that little coin in there. Which is somehow a tougher competition than New York Jets starting corner.

It's true. It's true. But, yeah, no, Elijah Moore, man, has been a massive drumbeat player all off season. and he's continued it here in the training camp. Let's start here, because I know Scott is probably jumping to the bit to talk about more. But, Sig, how high have you moved more up in your rankings last like a couple months? A lot, okay. And we're talking about redraft.

I can tell you, bear with me for a second. I can tell you exactly where he is. And every time, so there's a category of players, right? Every time I look at my rankings, I move them up, right? Every time I redo my rankings, I move them up. Right now he's 33rd. I'll tell you some of the players around him. Kenny Gulladay, Michael Gallagher,

up Antonio Brown. These are the players that are coming in right after him in my rankings. But let your imagination run wild, right? Because Moore has been unequivocally named as the most impressive player either side of the ball, not just among rookies, just in Jets camp. Okay. And it's been consistent. And one of the things I thought was really telling was Connor Hughes.

And you're right, we have to watch for subjective takes. We have to watch whenever, like, sometimes there are players that are just impressive practice players. and like every year they're going to be impressive in practice and not carry it over. So beat writers can kind of, some beat writers can get carried away with that kind of enthusiasm. But Connor Hughes, who writes for the athletic, said, every day I come to camp and I try to focus on somebody other than Elijah Moore and he makes it impossible. Wow. And I think that's meaningful. I think that's a meaningful sentiment.

And what it means is we don't know how good he's going to be. And we should already be open to rookie wide receivers having major fantasy impacts. I mean, look at Justin Jefferson last year. I'm not saying Elijah Moore is going to be Justin Jefferson. saying let your imagination run wild. And then the next thing you have to say is, okay, let's get to some objectives, situations. Is there the opportunity here for more to say catch 100 balls? Like if he catches 100 balls, he's like a fantasy wide receiver team in PPR leagues.

Yes, yes. It's a new quarterback making new connections. This offense, the Kyle Shanahan offense, is predicated on short, high percentage, run-after catch routes. That's Elijah Moore. That's not Corey Davis. Corey Davis is going to be canceled out by Stefan Gilmore and Tradavius White and Examian Howard and whoever else the number one outside corner is. Keel and Cole's a solid player.

James and Crowder, look, they might want to, after they restructure James and Crowder to keep him in the offense, and he'll still play a role, but Moore just has all the makings of a player who cannot be kept off the field. And whatever little opportunity he gets to start, as he's already demonstrated, he's going to kick the door open. So eighth round, I mean, you're going to have in your draft a list of those receivers, and not just receivers, other positions, that you're like,

I get excited. my heart starts to beat a little faster. Like your bench guys, maybe it's Michael Hardman. Maybe it's Darnell Mooney, you know? Maybe it's Devante Smith, even though he's hurt. And you just got to have clarity and prioritize those guys, have a few in your back pocket. I think more is somebody that. I'm not going to ridicule anybody.

You even take him in the sixth or seventh round. I'm not going to ridicule that. That could look brilliant, like two weeks end of the season. The Jess are going to throw 600 plus times. Yeah. I mean, the thing, one of the biggest trends we've seen in the last three to four years at the receiver position early in careers is we're not seeing such a, you know, massive curve with rookie receivers.

Like, not just Justin Jefferson coming out and having, you know, arguably one of the best rookie receiver seasons ever. It's, you know, Brandon Ayuk was fantastic last year down the stretch. You know, there's just countless players. And I think Elijah. T. Higgins almost had a thousand yards. Yeah. With Joe Burrough missing the last six games.

Yeah, exactly. I mean, Higgins was in that, like, trajectory with, with Jefferson. in IUC before Burr got hurt. C.D. Lamb, too. I mean, C.D. Lamb was averaging 85, 90 yards per game before that got hurt. So we're just seeing, we're seeing these receivers come in and be ready to play much earlier. And more kind of ticks all of those boxes. So, yeah, I'm with you.

Scott, I know you've been a huge more guy. I don't know if you have them in the eighth round, though. That's, Sig's real spicy with it. Yeah, Sig, I love you. so much for that. So Elijah Moore has been my guy since March. He was the third best wide receiver in this class by my model, but also that I had this as a very special class. So over the past seven seasons, he still ranks top 10. He ranked right in between Justin Jefferson, Jerry Judy, again, by my model. Who would have thought that this guy was going to be a star? My freaking model did because he just averaged the

most yards from scrimmage per game by any Power 5 wide receiver ever. I think ever. He averaged 10.8 catches per game last year. He's a PPR cheat code, maybe the most NFL ready wide receiver in this class. And so this offseason has been, you know, sort of bittersweet in the sense that, okay, it's confirm your prior season and my priors have been confirmed. Bad news is he was going undrafted in best ball leagues in March. You know, in the football guys players championship on FFPC, I was getting him round 12. Now he's, you know, like you said, round nine, round. So, so the discount is no longer there. And here's my concern is. So like last year, one of my, one of my guys was Hollywood Brown. And that did not go well. And

part of the problem with that was I had him really early on as one of my guys. And then everyone, like beat writers started hyping him up. Other fantasy analysts were like, oh my God, Hollywood Brown is awesome. Make sure you draft him around early. So I kept double counting the hype and moving him up and moving up. But with every single player, there's always a price point where he's no longer a value. And I think that point came and went with Hollywood, but I was still, you know, bumping him up to keep pace with everyone else.

So my concern is just I'm doing the same thing with Elijah Moore. But on the other hand, like, I'm going to cry if Elijah Moore is who I think he is and he's not on 100% of my teams. Right. Well, that's the thing, right? There's that level of when you get that light bulb over your head, if you have a eureka moment with a player, it's hard to let that go. And you shouldn't let that go. This comes back to, I was talking about this on my show earlier today on our show with Audible, that there is a big mental health element. And Lord knows we need it more than ever to fantasy football and how fantasy football is.

part of our lives and I made kind of an impassioned speech about being open to exuberance and letting exuberance overtake you. And it's one of the ways that this hobby or obsession of ours can help relieve burdens when you feel that feeling and you get carried away. And I think, again, like, it's just how we put together our rankings, guys. Like, am I heartbroken if I miss out on Kenny Goladay with everything that's going on behind him? No. Am I heartbroken if I miss out on Antonio Brown?

or Michael Gallup, who were going to have, like, big games, but not necessarily be totally consistent producers. That's about where the break point is. You know, the guys above Elijah Moore, right above are guys like Brandon Ayuk and Jerry Judy. Players I think, like, yeah, I might, I might look back and say, ooh, I got a little overaggressive. But I think we probably make more mistakes when we keep ourselves from being overaggressive. And then I think the mistake more often is that we talk ourselves out of something we feel because ADP says that's not wise. ADP is just a guide of what you expect in your draft. The instant the season starts, picks that we would ridicule his reaches are going to look brilliant.

And picks that we thought that's a really good value pick are going to be wasted picks. No, I think that's exactly right. And I spent a large bulk of this offseason, you know, trying to beat it into people's heads that it's upside that wins the day in redrafts, start sit leagues. And after round six, round seven, all you should be focused on is upside. I mean, what is Michael Gallup's upside if everyone stays healthy? He's still the wide receiver three. Antonio Brown probably the same thing. Elijah Moore has, you know, world beater type upside.

And part of my analysis and continually bumping up the rankings is a little bit of narrative street. So it's good that we've got you on. Yeah. Just talking about narrative street with Elijah Moore, did you see the video of A.J. Brown literally breaking down into tears saying, yeah. bruh, I never told you this, but you're better than me, bro. You could do whatever you want, bruh.

And then there's also, QB rapport is a thing. It's an important thing. It's why in DFS, a backup quarterback comes in, a backup wide receiver comes in. And this no-name, you know, wide receiver four now starting is a stud that first week because they had the entire offseason together practicing with the twos. They have that clear established rapport. And I think we have that with Elijah Moore and Zach Wilson. clearly Zach Wilson's guy.

He said it time and time again. He sent each other their highlights. They're talking on the phone constantly. They're going on cute Italian brodates together. Like this is definitely Zach Wilson's guy. And you mentioned narrative streets. We're going to get, we're going to talk about one player. This is the only player we're going to talk about on the show.

But it's good because I think narrative belongs in fantasy football analysis. And anybody who would tell you otherwise, you're just missing half the picture. And look, narrative isn't going to lead. us always to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. But anytime there is a pot of gold, sometimes not until after it happens, but we can always discern a narrative that led to it, even if we were totally off the trail. There was a trail. And the more we at least are open to trying to find it, it's going to lead us there on these.

And quarterback wide receiver chemistry is absolutely part of narrative street that belongs in fantasy football. It is absolutely like when Aaron Rogers must to freeze out one of his receivers or something like that. This is a real thing in football, folks. And like you said, Scott, you can read the puff pieces and look for the signs of it. And it's another reminder, too, that you should never think the way we present wide receiver picks is just the wide receiver. But that's not what you're drafting. You're drafting the quarterback to wide receiver connection in the context of the offense and the role that the wide receiver plays. And that's why, again, when you put in the Kyle Shanhan

offense, when you put in Wilson, who is, you know, some of the quarterbacks they want to transplant some nerve into them. That's not Zach Wilson. If anything, you're going to have to have him dialed back so he doesn't get turned into minced meat. But he's not going to be shy out there. That's good. That's a good thing for our purposes.

It's a good thing if you want to make the case for Elijah Moore's ceiling, which we don't quite know how high it is. The cool thing, the thing I love most about, you know, talking through receivers and projecting receivers is their range of outcomes is far more binary than running backs. You know, running backs rely on game script. They rely on how good their team is, how many scoring opportunities they get. With receivers, it's like, okay, you're either earning targets or you're not. And targets begets, period.

It begets more targets. Like there's a feedback loop in both directions that we sometimes neglect when we think of how wide the range actually can be. Exactly. Yeah. And that's something that, you know, I think is missed a lot. It's like, you know, if a receiver goes out, you know, the guy who might be behind him on the depth chart isn't going to immediately step in and take those targets.

It's usually the opposite. It's usually, you know, guys behind them are not direct backups. But, yeah, I think, you know, targets, at the end of the day, targets are earned. And I think, you know, Elijah Moore is certainly earning his share. Okay, we've talked, Scott, you've gotten your rocks off on Elijah Moore for the last 15 minutes. Let's talk about a couple other players. So how have you handled the whole Seqwarm? Barkley debacle. He was cleared off PUP today. He's going to be in practice. They're probably

still going to slow roll it with him, but he's got a month, basically exactly a month. We're recording this on August the 9th. He's got exactly a month to get back to, you know, almost 100%. What's kind of been your process like with Barclay this offseason? So this can tie into an article I'm going to release today. And I give him a nod to my buddy Joe Wright, who was my academically rival in high school when he gave me this name. Because I talked about the concept of a player that you are relieved when you see someone else take them in front of you because they're not on your avoid list, but they're not really on your target list. But if you have to consider them when you're on the clock, it's going to give you some

indigestion, right? Instead, this is the role aids list. So I'm relieved if a few picks ahead of me, like if I have a pick at the end of the first round and someone takes Barkley 9th or 10th, so I don't have to think about it because I don't want to think about it. Now, I'm probably inclined to say no. I don't even know how far down the list. He may even be in the mid-second round.

I might say no to him because your first, your second round, round picks. And guys, this year, your second round pick is as important or more important than your first round because there's a plateau and some of those wide receivers and running backs going in the second round are going to be massive hits and some are not. And being able to pick out which ones, and I don't have a easy, sure answer because all of them you can make the glass half full, glass half empty take. The glass half full take on Barkley's simple to talent. He's just a rare, stellar talent at the position. But there's a lot on the glass half empty side. He's coming back from the ACL and it was not a simple ACL. And they're probably going to

take it easy, even though Barkley would want a full workload week one, because they're prudent. I mean, he's one of the franchise investments, assuming they're going to sign him to a second contract. But can he get all the way back in his first year removed from this injury? Why this is so important is because unlike some other running backs, Barclay really relies on his physical talent. That's his game. And it certainly isn't going to be produced by the residue of the offense. They don't have a good offensive line. I don't think Jason Garrett at this point can like scheme plays out of a paper, punches way out of paper bag. And Daniel Jones is like the fist. And that's why he can't do it, you know. So you're really going to, these are your premium picks,

your first and second round pick, right? They're your blue chip picks. What are you hitching your wagon to? I get it if you're saying, I'm going to hitch my wagon to Seekle and Barclay's talent and let the chips fall where they may. But nothing else about his situation gives me any feeling of hope or promise. Like the giants are a sinking ship right now. This version of the giants is you're watching a slow motion car wreck. So I'm probably saying no, and even if it's like Barclay or Mixin, because it's a similar kind of analysis. I mean, Barclay, the last two years have been injury marred. So if you think, well, Mixon, can he stay healthy? Well, Barclay, can he stay healthy?

He gets himself in all kinds of awkward scenarios because of how much he relies on that physical talent. And if the offensive line is porous and leaky and he's having to double back and change direction twice, three yards behind line of scrimage, he's going to put himself in more of those awkward positions. So I'm probably saying no. I'm not saying if there's a zero percent chance I'm going to be wrong. and all the people even taking as high as the top five are going to be right. But I just can't invest in the Giants' offense this year. Yeah.

That's kind of where I'm at, too. It's like the vibe around the Giants right now is just like nuclear. You know, between, it's just between, like you mentioned, I've been on this all off season. And last year, too, Sig is just, you know, Garrett, I just am not convinced that, not convinced that he's going to know how to get all these pieces to work together. you know and get the wheel working with Goladay with Tony mixed in now with Ingram playing his role

with Barclay back i'm just not convinced and last year i mean garrett was one of the most run heavy coaches in the league once you adjust for game script on early downs and that was without sake on barclay i mean he just continued to go back to this like super conservative well and i just i'm not convinced he's going to know how to do all of this together but you made a you made a point in there that the second round is going to be just as important if not more important than the first this year And I could not agree more. That's something I've been writing about, too, is like these guys, especially these second round backs, because the receivers in that range are pretty straightforward.

Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, like, we know what their range of outcomes is. Even on the lower end, like D.K. Metcalfe, Justin Jefferson. Like, we know what they're, we feel pretty comfortable about what their scoring outcomes are. But the running backs, you know, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Najee Harris at the backhand. Those are the players that I think are either going to be massive hits, like you mentioned, or big swings and misses. And Scott, I know I know Mixen is one of your guys. You know, Barkley's back, Scott, like where have you kind of adjusted if at all?

Are you still going with Mixing and Gibson in that range? Or have you bumped up Barkley a little bit? Yeah. So Sig's response was a little bit surprising. So that year where I was stuck in the cubicle listening to your podcast, that was one of the best fantasy seasons I ever had. I went all in on the Denver Broncos because CIS was just hyping them up like crazy. And that was the year the absolutely smash. That was Josh Gordon's sophomore season.

But I also had Rob Grankowski. That was the year we knew he was going to miss like the first four games or so. And then he came back and he absolutely dominated and he got hurt again, whatever. But he was dominant when he was healthy. and you were saying hammer Rob Grunkowski in the second round because, okay, you lose out in the first month of the season, but the final month of the season matters so much more. So here's where I'm at with Sequin Barclay. He's my RB4 or RB5. I keep going back and forth between him and Zik because the upside argument is very easy. It's okay. He's Sequin Barclay, when he's healthy,

he's the closest thing in the game to Christian McCaffrey. The downside argument, I keep going back to a conversation I had with Dr. David Chow. I took a phone call with him a few years back, and he talked to me about Dalvin Cook, who was one of my guys that year. It was a full year removed from the ACL. So the first year back, he struggled. He was less efficient, and he suffered a number of compensatory injuries. And he was like, yeah, I was avoiding Dalvin Cook like the plague because that one Adrian Peterson season aside, a running back, coming back from an ACL injury should be avoided in their first year back due to compensatory injuries due to a decline in efficiency. But that following year, he's going to be 100%. That's when you go all in. And he

absolutely dominated. He absolutely smash. Talking to our injury expert, Edwin Poris, He is not at all concerned about Sapewant Barkley. I have a little bit more of a reservation just due to that one phone call I had with Dr. Chow a couple of years back. But yeah, I mean, it reminds me of the Rob Grancowski situation. He's going to miss probably week one, let's say. Then week two, he's going to get 50% of snaps. Week three, he'll get 65.

And then ideally he's just back to being the Saquan Barkley of old where, again, only Christian McCaffrey has that level of upside. The guy played in over 77% of the team snaps in, I don't know, 90% of his games, like just ridiculous, ridiculous upside. I get the injury risks. I get the fear of compensatory injuries. But RB4, RB5, yeah, and I feel good about it. My feeling is like kind of like what Sig was saying, if I have to choose between Adams or Barkley at 10. I'm going Adams. But I am back in, I've been pretty adamant that I'm taking Barclay if he falls into that early second for all the reasons you just outlined. And, you know, I'm out on Galday. I'm out on Daniel Jones, all the receivers. But the one thing with

Barclay is that he is not like a game script dependent back. He is in that Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara type mold where even if the giant stink, Seiguan Berkeley is going to be fine. I mean, he just doesn't have the wide splits and wins versus losses that, that, you know, Derek Henry has or Josh Jacobs might have. So, you know, even if Barclay starts the season slow, you know, back half of the year, middle of the year, we're still looking at, you know, Sequin being at worst, you know, top eight, top ten running back. I've got him at six or seven. I've got Aaron Jones just a scotch higher because I'm, you know, I just feel a lot more comfortable with the Packers' offense and Jones's role. But yeah,

Barclay is, I think, right directly in play in that, like, after Adams and Hill go off the board and maybe even digs, I'm right back in on Barclay. Yeah, I'm just not drafting wide receivers in the first two rounds. It's just at the end of the day, you know, running backs are going to be the determining factor in whether you win or lose your league. It's the most important, most valuable position in fantasy. You can talk about, bus rates, but bus rates entirely missed the point. It's that league winning upside. You need to dominate your league. And to me, Saquan has that. I agree the injuries muddy the evaluation and all that, but I don't know. It's just the one game he was healthy, like you said, you know, 15 carries

nine targets. Like no one else does that except for Christian McAvary. Yeah, it's, it doesn't really, I mean, the role is so safe. But I'll hold real quick. I got to take you up on this. Okay. So you're not taking receiver. So, like, I hear what you're saying because at no position in fantasy has the potential for just complete outlier seasons like running back does, right? Like, if you, if you had Christian McCaffrey in 2019 or 20, or, you know, 2019, even 2018. I mean, it was like automatically you had a 25% chance to win your lead. And on average, you know, if you just give everybody a perfect, perfectly average. It was like 80% to make it to your championship.

It was obscene. Yeah, it was ridiculous. I mean, it was literally like if you had Christian McCaffrey and a bunch of replacement level players, you were at 25% immediately. If you give everybody in your league a perfectly average chance and a perfectly average skill set, your chances of winning are 8%. On the downside, even though burning backs do have the upside to carry your teams, unlike any other position, they also have the most downside.

And I think that's kind of what I'm getting at is like, I know, I know what you're saying intuitively, right, with backs, but like, you kind of have to have that balance and just forcing forcing a back in the second round if Calvin Ridley's there and you're looking at, you know, a drop in your tears. I do take, I don't know, I hear what you're saying, but, you know, if you're on the clock and it's like, let's say Diggs falls and it's Diggs versus Austin Echler, you always going, Eccl. there or, you know, I'm just trying to, I guess I'm trying to clarify the process. Almost without fail, I am going RB, RB to start. And then ideally a tier three running back makes it back to round three or Darren Waller's there. Otherwise, just, you know, RB, RB, and then I start hammering wide receiver in the other positions. And luckily, the tier for running back to me dies at like 301.

So it's really easy to go that. route and then the well dries up and you have to gamble on these lesser sexy names and like that's just really what you have to do in fantasy and what you have to do at the running back position because at the end of the day it's the one that matters and like almost nothing else comes close luckily I see a ton of late round wide receiver value you know Elijah Moore I was scooping him up in round 12 round 13 Jacoby Myers going undrafted Ron Dale Moore in the last round of your draft Brian Edwards in the last round of your draft. So there's there's a lot of value at the wide receiver position later that that it also makes me feel comfortable going that route. Gotcha. Yeah, the receiver is, you know, it's such a

overused phrase, but it really, there is some truth to it, some level of truth that receiver is very, very deep, especially in the third round this year. Third and fourth round is like such a sweet spot for receiver. And like you mentioned, Scott, there's, I think there's literally one back. I feel really, really good about in the third round is j k dobbins like that's that's the one the one guy in the third fourth round that i feel awesome so he's he's not in that priority tier for me but um yeah it's just one of those things with the floor is so so high with him it's like you know even with gus he had like he was averaging like eight to 12 touches per game even when mark ingram wasn't playing a single snap i think about him as like he gets he gets 50 percent uh or he gets he gets

gets 65% of the team's rushing attempts out of the backfield. He only gets like 40% of the teams rushing XTD out of the, because Lamar Jackson is going to vulture some touchdowns. And Gus Edwards is going to get at least some of that. And then what's his target upside? It's like almost minimal. So he's really not in that priority tier for me. Yeah.

I mean, Dobbins, when they cut off Ingram's role, it was like he was getting, you know, 12 to 15 carries. per game. And yeah, I mean, that's the thing, the thing, though, is we have to expect some sort of role growth with Dobbins, though, is, you know, he was a rookie. The Ravens and Greg Roman have been adamant that, like, and, you know, I've heard this from Scott Turner about Antonio Gibson, too, is like, last offseason, because of COVID and because they didn't have the time and the practice time and even the meeting time to get with

these players, it's like they couldn't install certain things that they would normally install with their rookies. So I think we have to expect some sort of curve with the second round, excuse me, with these, with these, you know, second year backs, you know, Dobbins. Well, I mean, I'm certainly expecting that with Antonio Gibson. You give them, so why are we using that? 50% of J.K. J.D. McKissick's targets and he's a top three fantasy running back. With J.K. Dobbins, it's like Lamar Jackson, you could hype up J.K. Dobbins is the passing game all you want. it's still a hyper mobile quarterback who doesn't target running backs who's been a vulture touchdowns.

Gus Edwards isn't going to go completely away. Yeah. No, I'm 100% with you. We've been hearing about Lamar checking down more for three years. Let's let Sigby the deciding factor here. I don't think that's an option, though. Yeah. Go ahead.

And I have a lot of JK Dobbins in the third round, a lot. Yeah. I have a lot. And here's my take on it, okay? there's a lot of different ways I could go out explaining this. Why can't JK Dobbins be Nick Chubb? Yep. Right.

So that's exactly what I argued. Scott's comp. Yeah. That's exactly what I argued in my article. The thing is, I'm not taking Nick Chubb anywhere. Well, that's fair. So whether we're talking about Chubb or Dalvin Cook, who you mentioned, Scott, or Dobbins. And I'll tell you another player this could end up applying to is Tray Sherman.

You have a special alignment of talent and system. Yep. And when you have a special alignment, of talent system, volume isn't as important because the big plays are going to come. Dobbins will get more targets in last year. Maybe it's only five or ten more targets. Maybe it's 20 or 30 more targets. But that's absolutely been a point of emphasis in the offseason. And this is verifiable objective stuff. This isn't beat writer fluff or something like that. He's been catching the ball and well in training camp. Daniel Jeremiah, and I respect Daniel Jeremiah as a football

mind. He's not a fantasy writer. He said, take Dobbins in your fantasy leagues after he went to Ravens camp. Again, to me, that's meaningful. To me, that's meaningful. He's like, He's not a big fantasy player, although he did make his debut in the podcast world on our show. I think he was a regular guest back in like 2009 or 2010. Yeah, I remember that. He was just, he wasn't even under the name, Daniel Jeremiah. It was like just asking. Dane Brugler too, now?

Yeah, Dane. Yeah, Dane was probably like 19 back then. Anyway, so I just, I like Dobbins because of that special alignment between the Ravens system and his talent. And then the other, and also you're hearing the reports of that second year leap. the same way you're hearing about Gibson. And then the other thing that I like here, let's remember what Mark Ingram did with part of this battle field. And he was still like later career Mark Ingram.

So what can the player with some juice do? That's what I'm saying. So one of my hot takes from last year or like bold takes that I put out on Twitter was J.K. Dobbins will lead all running backs and yards per carry. What happened? Let all running backs and yards per carry. That seems like a hot take. It wasn't at all.

It's because you have Lamar, Jackson. So with the Konami code quarterbacks, what you see is, one, they don't target running backs, but two, the make up for that somewhat with increased ground game efficiency. It's just so hard to, you know, cover both the running back and the quarterback for a defense. So it's going to allow for greater efficiency. And like, we're definitely going to see that. Like Jakey Dobbins is going to be, again, one of the most efficient running backs and fantasy on a per touch, per snap basis. I have no doubt about that. So again, I quite, question the league winning upside. I see like a low end RB1 finish. But yeah, but yeah, I mean,

I certainly- Chub upside. Yeah. Can I talk about Kyle Pitts now? Oh my God. Please. Yes. Go ahead. I'm sorry. It's just like I'm doing the I'm doing the tour and and I never even meant to be like the Kyle Pitts flag bearer. But the immediate reflexive narrative that well, rookie tight ends can't do very much because history tells us. the numbers are against it. I think it's just it's almost like

it's, I usually used to say there's a version of fantasy football where all we get like we live on the moon and we just get this telemetry like all we get are the numbers. We don't get to actually watch football. And I get it if you're approaching it that way. But Kyle Pitts is

already a unicorn, right? First non-quarterback to be a tight end. First top five tight end. And remember, Atlanta could have traded. it down and they're a team at a crossroads where trading down would have been certainly a wise move for them but they didn't so i think the fact that kyle pitts was announced as a tight end is just

turning this whole thing sideways because guys we can conceive of a rookie wide receiver making a massive fantasy impact right justin jefferson or randy moss or whatever we know that rookie wide receivers can be league winners we know that we've seen that if kyle pitts was announced as a wide receiver, people would probably be comfortable taking him in the third or fourth round, right? Because we know rookie wide receivers, and Kyle Pitts looks like the kind of dude that as a rookie can still blow up the league. If he was just announced as a wide receiver with his height, with his speed, with his ball skills, with everything that he's shown, nobody would bat an eye at taking him in the third or fourth round. But because he's announced as a tight end, when it's not,

he's not going to be used like a traditional tight end. Come on, folks. They didn't draft him to be like T.J. Hawkinson. Okay, they didn't draft him to be Vernon Davis. They draft him to be like Calvin Johnson, basically. If he was drafted as a wide receiver, if the falcons said wide receiver Kyle Pitts, people would take him around the same time as Jamar Chase and not bat an eye. But you take him a little bit earlier than that as a tight end. Here's what's backwards about that. He's more valuable because he's a tight end. He's a lot more valuable. Maybe not this year, but it is in his range of outcomes, fellas, to be the most valuable player in fantasy football, period. Period.

So we had Mike Renner at front of the show on this podcast over at PFF, and I asked him, okay, if Kyle Pitt, this is before the draft, if Kyle Pitts refused to play the tight end position, where would he be drafted? He's like, there's still no way he makes it out of the first round. There's a chance he gets drafted, I don't know, wide receiver two. And like, that was crazy to me. So you sold the argument perfectly. And I have these arbitrary distinctions.

So there's the Konami Code quarterbacks and then the statues. There's the Belkow running backs and then the workhorse backs and the scat backs and then the handcuffs. And like these distinctions are important because like a Konami code quarterback has a higher floor, a higher ceiling, more week to week consistency. They're far more valuable than all of the other quarterback. So they need to be prioritized. What I've been calling with the tight end position,

the oligarchs due to the death of the middle class. There's no middle class of the tight end position anymore. Love it. The top three guys and everyone else. So you have these three tight ends who are masquerading as wide or wide receivers masquerading as tight ends. They're putting up top 15 wide receiver numbers at the tight end position. So they're far more valuable than wide receivers.

Darren Waller, you can make an argument that he belongs in that tier one of wide receivers. Defante Adams, Stefan Diggs, Tyree Kill. So the argument with Kyle Pitts, who was my guy all offseason, I just, you know, I want to get him in every single dynasty league. And then I'm not the highest guy on him anymore. You are because his redraft ADP has gotten up there. And it's a little scary. And so the counter argument I'll make is, okay, assume Kyle Pitts is already an oligarch tight end. He's not going to be blocking.

He's going to be running routes. And he's already one of the best route running tight ends in the league. basically he's Jemar Chase with a tight end designation. Jamar Chase has a super high ADP. But if you take our projection for Jemar Chase and just give it to Kyle Pitts, he still only ranks tight end four in our projections, which is where he is in ADP. So my only concern,

and I guess why you're so much higher in redraft than I am, and there is a steep learning curve at a tight end. It's just like an undeniable fact. Granted, he's a unicorn absolutely. but it seems like that's already baked into his ADP and you're taking him at his ceiling. But the thing is, it's just like a mathematical statement.

Kyle Pitts the tight end has to be worth more than Kyle Pitts the wide receiver. It's just the nature of fantasy football. And look, if he's on a par with George Kittle, George Kittles going in the second or maybe early third round. And I honestly, so this is another role age player.

I'm relieved when I have a late third round pick every time I see Kittle go before me, because I don't want to have to gun to my head think, am I going to take Pitts over Kittal? Because Kittle's going to be in a lower volume pass offense. He doesn't have a spotless injury history. Brandon and I, you can Diko, Sammy, were the best pair of receivers he's ever shared with. He blocks. He's not going to run anywhere near as many rounds.

And if Trey Lance takes over, they're not going to pass as often. They're just not going to. We already know that Kyle Shanahan is content to win a game with 12 or 15 pass attempts. He doesn't care? He does not care. And certainly doesn't that sound like what the Trey Lance 49ers offense might look like when the defense is good and they dom made a game? the defense is going to be better and back to form.

So I may put Pitts above Kittle when it's all said and done. But this proposition is so attractive. I feel like the tight end thing just threw the conversation off. If we just think about football as a game of pitch and catch and you have someone with Kyle Pitts measurable, his production, and his skills, then we would say, you want that. That's what you want. You want to get that into fantasy football. And I think that the history, guys, it's like this.

A tiger with zebra strives. zebra stripes showed up and people are treating like a zebra not a tiger. Love that. I tend to lean more towards Scott's line of thinking it's like, you know, you're expecting the Titan 4 over the last five years is average 13.4 fantasy points per game. And I think that's a very fair projection for pits, you know, 65, 70 catches, 800, 900 yards. You know, all of these things can be true that he's a unicorn prize. prospect. He's a one of one prospect. He's already the dynasty tied in one by a considerable

margin. All of these things can be true. But I'm, I'm with Scott, but like that upside piece, you know, he's for him, for him, for him to really smash me, he's got to, he's got to beat out his peers. And in Sigmund, in our apex league that we're in this, I think this is, you're going to make your pick. You're just going to take Elijah Moore so I know I'm not going to get him at the turn. Oh, yeah. I'm already sitting on. that. I'll make my final call when we get off the pod. But yeah, I mean, you took

you suck to your guns. You took Kyle Pitts over Adam Thielen. You took him over let's see who else here. Deonté Johnson, Juj, Moro, Jones, Brandon Ayuk, T. Higgins. The one guy in that range, I can

see your logic and your argument, but the one guy, well, actually, you didn't take him over Thielen. Silva took Thielen right at him. Yeah, right before. Yeah, right before. But anyway, I see your logic.

I guess my thing is it's just like, you know, for Pitts to really pay off that ADP, he's going to not only have to have the best rookie season ever, which I think we're all projecting him for have to have. Except Dicca, of course. Yeah, except Dicca. Yeah, 19, what was it, 64, I think. Yeah. Yeah, but nobody else has ever come close to Dikka's range. You know, it's been, you know, Jeremy Shockey came close.

Evan Ingram kind of came close. Jordan Reed was awesome in his rookie year. He kind of came close. It's just, you know, Pitts is already the outlier of outliers. And I feel very comfortable saying that, but he's going to have to be like a triple outlier for him to really pay off that cost in the fourth. There are so many sentences that start nobody else that are about Kyle Pitts already. He's already on a nobody else trajectory.

The other thing is, folks, again, I just want to say, like, forget about ADP, forget about fantasy football analysis, forget about all. this. Let me tell you story. A team had a signature player that was like one of the signature player of the history of the team. And because of the bad choices of the previous regime, they had to trade him to make sure they could, you know, make payroll. And they had the highest pick they've had in a long time. And they might have taken Traylance, look into it. Really, I think of Traylands was able to take in Traylance. Traylance wasn't there. They had these choices. And what did they do? They basically committed to the player that's

going to fill Julio Jones role, right? This is the story. They get this guy who's like the new guy. And he sure enough, he looks like the new guy. He plays like the new guy. You know, his college film is just as impressive as Julio Jones. His measurables are just as impressive of Julio Jones. His integration of skill and physical ability is just as impressive as Julio Jones. He has a tight end coach who's known as an offensive genius. I've made this point a few times. This is one of my new stump speeches, guys. Maybe being an offensive genius is just using what you have. Maybe that's all it takes the NFL to be known as an offensive genius. to just say, well, this is what I got.

I'm going to use it. Yeah, I'm not going to just go out there and run my scheme. Right. So he's a tight end. He's a former tight end coach. I mean, they've had big plans for pits. Every practice, all the onlookers say, like, he doesn't line up in the same spot twice in a row. You're going to try to create mismatches.

That's what the NFL is about. Not creating mismatches. Guys, look at the schedule. And again, just use your imagination here. The schedule for Atlanta opens up Philly, terrible linebackers. Tampa, they're going to have to score. They're just going to be passing that way. The Giants, suspect linebackers.

Washington, again, you're going to attack the linebackers and the safeties. The Jets. Should we be shocked if Kyle Pitts has like six or seven touchdowns in the first five games? Is that really just unthinkable? No, I don't think that's unthinkable. It's just one of those things where it's like, you know, I am a little lower on the Falcons passing attack than I think you are a SIG. Well, but it, well, has the Falcons passing attack given us any problems producing?

I mean, Hulieu-Jolian. and Calvin Ridley were both wide receiver once last year when they were in, right? And again, like, if Arthur Smith just gets a little more out of this offense, or if at least keeps it the same, you know? Right. Matt Ryan has, like, scary bad splits without Julio Jones. And I'm with you that I think Pitts is on that level of a prospect. I'm just not convinced that Pitts has that level of impact as Julio Jones will have immediately.

That's kind of the extrapolation that I'm not, I'm not totally there. I hear you. But if he was going to be that guy, this is how the story would start. Right, right. My first take of the offseason was in December, tweeting this right now while the games are on, hoping no one sees it, and then I'm not going to say his name again without a paywall until I'm done with all of my rookie drafts. Kyle Pitts will be in the Hall of Fame. I haven't felt this sure about a fantasy eligible prospect since Chris McCaffrey. And then he went to the ideal landing spot.

Last year, only five tight ends saw 100 or more targets. only two eclips 800 receiving yards. Delaney Walker hit both marks in four straight seasons with Arthur Smith as his tight end coach. It was the dream landing spot. To six point, you know, no guts, no glory. And I mean, you're betting on a future Hall of Famer in terms of talent. It's just when is he going to arrive. Exactly. That's the bet you sort of want to make. It's it's not a question of if. It's a question of when. And it, to me, Pitts feels like an inevitability. But I mean, I get, I get both points, but now Stig's making me nervous, you know. Well, this is what's about fantasy football, you know, and I think that everybody

should have somebody, if it's not Elijah Moore, if it's not Kyle Pitts, that's fine. Go into your draft with a couple players you're this excited to draft. For whatever reasons. It doesn't matter. Yeah, that's the, that's the broader point. If you're not, if you don't have a few players that you're willing to take two or three rounds ahead of ADP, you're not being honest in your analysis. If you're just sitting back and taking value picks, then you're letting the rest of your league decide who's going to be on your team. Yep. Yeah.

And I think we talked about this a little bit earlier, but I think, you know, after the first couple rounds, first two to three rounds, I'm not necessarily throwing ADP completely out of the window, but I'm getting my guys because like you mentioned, I mean, that's how these leagues are won. All right, so we talked Elijah Moore. We talked Cal Pitts.

Let's bring this, you know, we've had enough praise on the show. Let's bring this full circle and talk some Jonathan Taylor before we get out of here. Obviously, the Colts entire situation right now is looking dire. Carson Wentz has a very murky timeline for return off of foot surgery. Best Guard and football, Quentin Nelson, again, very murky timeline coming off foot surgery. And then their new left tackle, they just signed from the chiefs, Eric Fisher. It's coming off of torn Achilles. So we have three core players that the Colts are all going to be without, at least in week one,

could be as deep as week four, week five, week six. So let's start with JT. How much have you dropped him in your rankings? So before all of this, before the one century, before Nelson, before all that, where did you have JT? and where do you have him now? Okay, so I think we can break down running back pretty straightforward. There's McCaffrey, Cook. we can argue about like Henry versus Kamara.

Some people might still be in on Elliott. The DAC stuff is a little bit weird, but you know, Elliot's attached to like a potential 20 touch tool role. There's your five. And maybe someone will go ahead of Elliott. Maybe a couple of guys will go ahead of Elliott. But that's kind of where the break is. I originally had Taylor and Ann Barclay right after that break, right?

I mean, they don't feel quite as ironclad as those top five, but about as good as it gets after that. But then context changes. And running backs are very context dependent. you know outside of your Barry Sanders and we're guessing and this is the Sequin Barkley question there are running backs don't usually transcend they have to truly be like a generational running back to transcend their surroundings they're environmentally sensitive running backs so this is part of the analysis of Barkney's part of the analysis of Taylor

so right now that next group so I'll tell you where I'm at guys on this stuff is the next group I have are Jones Chubb and Echler because I just feel like a more warm fuzzies about them Like, I just feel like I know what I'm getting. I know I'm getting good running backs and good situations who can perform in those situations and have proven they have, right? And maybe they're sealing, like maybe Jones, because of the structural problems, A.J. Dillon, because Echler might not get goal line looks, because Chubb has Green Hunt. Maybe they don't have top five in the range of outcomes unless everybody steps on a landmine.

But they also, their floors, like, they're going to be a low-end running back one. Like, every time you have them in your lineup, you're going to project them as a top 10 12 running back that week. And Echler may be top five, depending on what Joe Lombardi does. And then you get to the next cluster of backs. And that's Gibson, Mixen, Taylor, Barclay, and Harris. And that's kind of the eye of the beholder guys. You know, it's, I mean, I can make strong upside arguments for them both.

And I can say, well, here's some reasons to slow down and have some caution. And I'm not going to go to the mat of the order that people have them. But Taylor, when everything looked swimming, was going swimmingly with Indy was more like that player with the arrow pointing up, and then a lot of things change. There's offensive line issues. There's Marlon Mack, like, at least looking like he's going to be able to play. And we're talking about, we're splitting hairs. Yeah, we're splitting hairs.

Like, yeah, the difference between Marlon Mack that gets five or seven touches a game and who doesn't is the kind of hair you split when you're making a first or second round fantasy football pick. The other thing is, and I feel like this has been looked at with Montgomery, but not as much. And I think Scott you were the ones pointed this out, like, yeah, I've talked about this months ago. Because people point to Montgomery's schedule when he went off and say, well, it could

be a Fugazi. He's paying weak defenses. And so were Taylor's big games. His big games were against generally, like, defenses that were rolling over. And that doesn't mean that Taylor's not a good player. It just means that we can't look at that last stretch as an indicator of where his 20-21 is headed. And then there's just that general feel that you get about the Colts now, right? Like, are you get a good feeling? Are you getting a good feeling that even when once comes back, that he's going to stay on the field? Are you getting a good feeling, like you said about Fischer. Brian Kelly has an elbow thing. You know, all of a sudden, this offensive line,

and Quentin Nelson's going to play. I mean, Quentin Nelson, my God, I don't even know what you would have to do to keep Quentin Nelson off on the football. He might be back by week one. He actually might be back. I mean, he's a mythical character. He's like someone out of one of those Marvel movies or something that is actually playing football. You know, we get to enjoy him playing football.

I mean, so, you know, I'm not going to, I'm not, even if someone takes Taylor over the Chub, Aaron Jones, Echler types, I'm not going to crucify them. I'm not going to say that's a horrible, horrible pick. I just think that he needs a good offense and good game scripts for things to go his way. And I'm not sure, you know, if the, if Wence misses the first four or five games, and again, guys, look at the schedule. This is the time of the year that you should be thinking about, like, envisioning an actual fan of football season, right? And he starts Seattle Rams at Tennessee,

at Miami, at Baltimore. If Wence misses those games and they're one and four to start the season, how does it feel in that room, you know, how's, what's the temperature like? How are things going? Not to mention that sadly, you know, if Wentz is right on the cusp of that 70, 75% snap count, you better bet that the Colts might make a business decision to protect their first round pick, especially if they start out one and four and over and five. That's all the more reason to protect that pick. So again, like I don't like questions when I'm making first and second round picks. I like guys that I feel like everything is lined up for success. I'm just not sure. Right. Yeah, I've ticked JT down well below like the Aaron Jones,

Ecclure you were mentioning. And I've also ticked them well below a lot of the second round receivers like Ridley, like Hopkins, because like, you know, the floor could drop out really fast. I mean, in that back half of, you know, his final, you know, six games last year, when he was doing all that, you know, just monster work, you know, he was still only getting 60%, 65% of the running back carries. You know, Mac mixing in for, you know, a few carries per game, you know, on the grand scheme of things over a full season, it might not look like it matters. But yeah, yeah, I'm with you that, you know, on a game level, especially on a potentially bad team.

to start the year, it is concerning. The one saving grace, though, is this Colts defense is really strong. They're going to try and keep them in games, and they will try and keep them in a few of those games to start the year. But I mentioned that a couple weeks ago when we were breaking down the Colts for our franchise focus. It's like, man, you could tell yourself a story that the Colts are 0 and 5 after the first five games and just looking like a complete dumpster fire. And Taylor's, you know, flashing and showing, you know, his, you know, talent. but it's not ending up not matter too much for fantasy. So yeah,

I wanted to talk through Jonathan Taylor. Let's also talk quickly about Joe Burrow and the Bengals because there has been, I mean, if you've been on Twitter for the last two weeks, you've seen as many negative reports about how Joe Burrow has looked. And I don't think there's, it's not that surprising, right?

I mean, bro's coming off one of those devastating the injuries. We've seen, you know, a quarterback take in the last, five, 10 years. I think it's almost like, there's also like a borderline moral question of like, of course he's going to look a little squeamish. Like he's got that in the back of his mind. He's, you know, every time he steps on the field, you know, he's still probably thinking about, you know, thinking about that play and everything that led up to it. Burrow and the Bengals were one of like my big stamps. Like I was drafting a bunch of Chase and Higgins in the fifth and six round. And I'm still on that, but I'm definitely a little more cautious, I guess, with,

with Burrow. What's kind of been your pathway for the Bengals this off season and looking into this, you know, situation now that, you know, Burrow and the Bengals are starting off so slowly? Yeah, it's something to monitor. You should not just write it off. You shouldn't feel free to ignore it. And we just finished as you alluded to being in the show like Real Estate Adventures. you know, you're looking at a house and there's something like when you're looking at the house, it's just, okay, you know, I'm next to a vacant lot or something. And then when you're actually living in the house and then things happen like you have rats because of the vacant lot or there's like, you know, people up to no good at night because it's a vacant lot. You're like, oh, yeah, this is what it's like living next to a vacant lot.

And that's kind of how I think we were with Joe Burrow's knee. It's like, yeah, yeah, Joe Burroughs coming back from a serious knee injury. Because let me tell you on my drafts, especially early season drafts, I got lots of Joe Mixen because of how he's, I got lots of team. I got lots of T. Higgins. I got lots, especially of Tyler Boyd. That's like a signature pick. He's just sitting there. Like 100 catches.

If he stays on the field and birds, he's on the field, he's there in the 6th, oh, come on, sign me up. But now that Burroughs back on the field, you're like, oh, yeah, he has to come all the way back from this injury. And it should definitely give you pause, I think, that the news also traces this picture of he doesn't trust his knee. He doesn't want to get hit around his knee, that he doesn't like bodies around his knee. There's time for it to change.

change. And Burrow has that eye of the tiger thing. He plays in the eye of the storm. If there's anybody that can be oblivious to his own well-being in a way to make his game more effective, Joe Burrow can do it, but also can lead to another injury. This is where the offensive line play comes in, right? And then it leads into more narrative street stuff. Like, can the bangles really get this thing turned around? I mean, I want to, I want to see it. I wanted to believe it when Burrow was the number one pick the year they got the number one pick, you know? But, you know, do we really know of Zach Taylor's any good yet. Yeah. There's a lot of ifs with the bangles.

Right. But I'm I, that's the one thing. There's a quote from a defensive coordinator. I don't know if it was anonymous or that, you know, he put his name on it. But he's, he basically said, we blitzed Joe Burrow and we kicked his ass and that guy kept bouncing back up. Right.

Bro's got that dog and he's going to get right. But yeah, for right now, I mean, early in the year, it could look pretty dicey. Well, he could be Chad Pennington, right? I mean, I joked. When we were talking about Justin Jefferson, I said, is it possible that Joe Burrow was holding back Justin Jefferson at LSU? And Eric Stoner, who's like the football sage. You like, you want me to start gushing about talking football someone the way that Scott was so gracious to talk about, like, how I talk about football. That's like Eric Stoner for me. And Eric Stoner said, did Jayette Pennington hold back Randy Moss and Marshall? You know? I mean, and it's not just, I mean, it's the injuries, too, because one of the things is we tell the story of Chad Penning in his career and we just didn't quite know what he could have become.

because he had all the intangibles. He had the way to like the, he had the processor and everything, but physically, and that's the thing with Joe Burrow. He's not the classic toolsy number one overall pick. Now, Baker Mayfield was neither. Baker Mayfield has merged with the Kevin's Tepansky system

in a way to get the most out of it. But he's not behind, he's behind the Browns line. He's got the Browns running game. You know what I mean? He's set up for success by his surroundings. Burrow is kind of like what, you watched Burrow last year and it was like Andrew Luxwick a year.

Why I likened it to was like dropping the Navy SEAL and behind enemy lines and saying, just shoot your way out. And that only works for so long. You know, so there's definitely reason for worry here. And we should definitely be monitoring this. And I want it to turn out well. But I looked at all of those teams guys.

I had drafted with all those Bengals. And I was like, well, yeah, this, we knew this. We knew this was an unknown. And now here we are. And this is what it feels like. We're staring in the face of that reality of, you know, you know, what this rehab is looking like for him. Yeah, I mean,

the thing is, you know, Burrow last year in the Bengals, they really didn't have another option. I mean, in the, you know, 10 games that Burrow played in before the injury, in eight of those 10 games, the Bengals were either, the game was either within a score going into the fourth quarter, they were trailing. They had no other option but to throw. And, you know, I think they want to get Joe Mixen in the run game going a lot more this coming season, but, you know, the offensive line and then, you know, there's just the general concern that they're not going to be able to run the ball in the second half when, you know, they're down is definitely a concern. But, um, yeah, that's the Bengals. Um, yeah, exactly. Sorry for Bengals fans.

Yeah, that's, I know, I do too, man. Because like, they finally get the quarterback, man. Like, they find, you know, they finally get the quarterback. They feel like they can take him over the hump and enter Washington's defensive line. Yeah, all of this happens. But, um, sick, I could talk to you for Oh, yeah. But, you know, you graciously gave us about an hour and 15 here. Yeah, just really appreciate it. This was fantastic. And we've got to make this a regular thing in the office season.

Hopefully a little sooner next year. Yeah. Genuinely, thank you for your time, man. It's engrossing. And I think that all everybody listening to your show, everyone that's become y'all's followers and to our various sites, they're all very thoughtful, deep thinkers. And it's fun to get lost in it.

And we'll get lost in it for, what, the next five months? Yeah, I know. We're here, man. We'll be, yeah, going through it until January. But, yeah, I'm looking forward to. I've been, like, just busting at the seams for this season to start, like, for the last couple weeks. So I'm ready.

I'm ready to rock. Sick, thank you again, man. Scott and I will be back next week with another guest as we continue to kind of roll through this training camp. Guys, we've got preseason games. A full slate of preseason this week. The 12th, 13th, 14th, got like, yeah, every, everybody's playing. We're back in it full preseason.

It is go time. But for Sigmund, for Scott, I'm Graham. Swam Prats, thanks for listening, and we will catch you next time. Welcome to Fantasy Points Radio. We bring to you Barfield. All of these, all of these, all of these parents, they hell and bears like why are the error with all of these errors. And Boffett and Barrett, you cannot compare with the kings of this ever.

There should be a tariff on. All of this knowledge are to fall in regardless. And straight at a point like a crow. Popping in common is losing my oxygen takes that they got me go Whoa so what's the swamp that gotta do I'm chasing all of this cheese even if my competition grew Looses to the mean your boy is never regressing off season through the season three six five two four seven and it's one for the money two bars on the sh-one one for the money two points but then they're glad that they join