Fantasy Football Daily - 2Barz - WAR & SFB11 with Jeff Henderson

Episode Date: July 1, 2021

Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) and Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) talk with FantasyPoints' own Jeff Henderson (@StatHoleSports) about his fantasy WAR metric and how to use it for your own draft strategies. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ladies, gentlemen, Swamprats, it is the Two Bars Podcast. Brought to you by myself, Scott Barrett, and Graham Barfield. If you like our intro music, shout out to Gabe, aka at FF Man Bun on Twitter, aka genius, the rapper,

his rap, alter ego. He made us that song and he also made an epic music video for it. You can check it on YouTube. Type in Genius G,

N-I-U-S, and then two bars, one word, number two, B-A-R-Z. Check it out. So awesome. So cool.

Anyway, today's show, we brought up on fantasy points, own resident warlord, the great Jeff Henderson, aka stat hole sports.

We can tell us a little bit about what that is, your background. And we brought Jeff on to talk about his stat, which is what I called the greatest stat I never invented, fantasy war. He has three phenomenal articles on that. And most recently, an article on the Scott Fishbowl scoring system and his specific strategy guide. If you're one of the lucky, I don't know,

1,600 people invited into the Scott Fishbowl, we'll get to that at the end. And Jeff's article was phenomenal, breaking down the ultimate strategy guide, what to do if you want to walk away with first place or at least when your lead or division. And that's it. That's what we got planned. Graham, how are you doing? You doing what's going on?

Pretty good, man. Oh, well, thank you. No, I just want to say that the three greatest white rappers of all time are in this order. Eminem,

Mac Miller, and then Gabe. And then it's everybody else, like a significant, significant tear drop. Yeah, Gabe is the man in that video he made for us. is like legitimately one of the best videos I've ever seen in my life. So yeah, big shout

up to him. But yeah, no, excited to talk to Jeff, man. This is our first time I've like seen your face. And I just, yeah, I just want to say that like, you know, the shit that you're putting together is, is awesome, man. Like, if you haven't already checked out Jeff's intro articles, especially like, you know, the theory and the positional hierarchy, articles up on the site, you definitely need to check that out. So, Jeff, let's get started. Like, um, First and foremost, like how, like, what was the kind of like the, the startup and the idea for war? Like what were you working on and like kind of what was the genesis of it? Well, to be honest with you, I mean, I started getting into like data science about, I don't know, three or four years ago.

When I figured out that you can do it for free and you didn't need some like program that cost $2,000 like they taught me in grad school. But so and I, you know, I've always loved fantasy football. And, you know, as a commissioner in a friend league for like, you know, 10 years, part of my duties are to roast my league mates by doing what I call a midseason report, which I just make completely biased statistics to pretty much, you know, just own the league despite how good or bad I've been doing. And then started kind of, you know, wanting to just start doing more than just that and started looking at actual fantasy. useful statistics. And it's just one of those things where, you know, as a fantasy manager, you want to find the best way to compare positions that are different from each other. And that's really what Winds Above Replacement is all about.

And so it was just kind of playing around with, you know, the coding to figure out how to find some sort of like a Z score or some sort of standard. standardization for how to compare across positions. And yeah, just kind of spun into me basically going full Charlie Day and coming up with this elaborate statistic to try to show that. And that's kind of what war is. Yeah. So to me, it just looks like value over replacement player on steroids.

It's just like perfectly executed and a more aesthetically pleasing form, like just the numerical value. And really what it's describing too. It's a lot like the non-fantasy baseball's war, right? And just for fantasy football telling you, okay, how valuable was this player? How many wins did he bring you? And what was that, let's say Alvin Kamara, in relation to. a Naim Hines or a J.D. McKissing. Yeah, and that's really kind of the key.

I think what makes it so, what people really love about it is that it's so relatable. It's a relatable figure because it's coming up the perspective of the fantasy team instead of just the player, right? So, and I can go in as far as we want to get into how that all works. but if you're a fantasy player and you have Alvin Kamara or Christian McCaffrey, there are a couple of examples that I used in my pieces. And for someone like Christian McCaffrey, he was out for 13 weeks. He only played in three games last year. So you as a fantasy manager that drafted him, you were stuck, you know, to get the,

to figure out what his value was to you, you need to, pretty much considered not only those three gains, but the other 13 that you didn't have him and thus were kind of stuck presumably going to a replacement level player. And ironically enough for McCaffrey, even despite that, I think in half point PPR, which is kind of the middle ground where the perspective that it wrote about, he was still able to get you about a win above a replacement level running back, even despite that. he was so good in those three games that he played.

Yeah, well, one of the things I like most about is you include, you know, you include like ESPN start sit percentage into your data. And I think that's like super crucial for the stat itself. Like, you know, just knowing like which players were in, you know, certain lineups. You know, obviously every week you're not taking, you know, when McAfria's healthier, Camara. You know, you're not taking those guys out of your lineup in general. But, you know, I think you,

calculating, you know, my question is like, how do you go in, how did you go in and calculate like your team win percentage based on the ESPN starts set stuff? Because I know in the article you were talking through, you know, Alvin Kamara, you know, how many points you scored in certain weeks and like what those team win percentages were. How did you go in and calculate that? All right, sure. Yeah. So we can dive into that. So we'll do this. Yeah, let's use Kamara as a good example here. So for to get the the team, you know, when you compare, let's say week one, Camara scored about 20 points. What the idea is, if you think of it under the framework of you as a fantasy manager, you've got your team, you want to figure out what your contribution

from Camara was while also controlling for the rest of your team. So we'll just consider the rest of your team did average, like league average for a 12-team league. And then your opponent also did the league, their entire team was the league average. So that begs the question, what is the league average and how is that, you know, derived? And that's where the ESPN start percentage data comes in. So if you take, you know, your conventional like Yahoo ESPN, 1 QB, 2Ride receiver, like the 9 starting roster kind of a format. To find that, what I did was for each of the 16 weeks, I took the top, so for running backs, I would take the top 24 started players.

And, you know, this is just kind of using the law of averages, right? So it's not going to work out perfectly for, you know, any which league, but the best guess would be these are going to be the 24 running backs in a 12-team league that you would expect. to start. And keep in mind if you're kind of thinking, wait, what about flex? We'll get there. Let's just focus on, you know, the running backs. So we've got 24 performances then. Now, now we need to pretty much average all. This would be 192 total. So what, or sorry, no, no, it would be 384 total. So 24 per week times the 16 weeks of the top, you know, 24 started running backs. Then you just average all that and that's going to give you what an average running back would be expected to score in any given week. And so you can see that process is just kind of done in

turn for each of the other positions. So now we can kind of talk about flex. So after you do all of the positions, so then you kind of remove anyone that would be considered a starter from flex consideration. and then the next 12 combination of running back, wide receiver, tight end that started in each of the 16 weeks, just average all those, and that's going to be 192 performances. Whatever that average is, that's going to be what you would expect roughly from a flex player. So from there, then you can go ahead and add all those up and then get what you expect out of your opponent. for half point PPR, that ended up being, I think, about 113 points.

So that's kind of what you presume that your team is going up against. And just I think running back averaged about 13 or so points. So you know that Alvin Kamara in week one scored 20. So he scored seven more. So you can expect that your team is going to score 120. versus your opponent's 113. So now here, as any wise fantasy player is probably thinking, you know, team scores week to week vary, right?

Like 113 might be the average, but one week it might be 70, might be 140, could be, you know, there's a variance. So we need to account for that too out of our opponent. And so there's a process of doing that. It's very similar to what we just did to get the averages, but instead we do it for standard deviation. That'll give you individual position standard deviations, and then there's a little bit of math that goes in combining that

without getting too deep into that. But that'll give you your team level standard deviation, which turned out to be about 20 points, and it's a pretty similar standard half-pPR, full ppr. They might be a couple points apart, but that's kind of the general trend. So from there, then, this is, so now just to kind of back up, what we know now for week one, Alvin Kamara on our team, we're expecting to score 120 points, right?

113 plus his 7 over the average running back approximately, right, versus our opponent who's scoring 113 with the standard deviation of 20. So this is where the, you know, there's, I can't even. to get too much into the math here, but I know this is a cumulative distribution thing going on that the computer tells me what percentage of scores underneath 120 are going to fall in a normal distribution. And that's kind of the percentage that we can say is our odds of winning week one with Alvin Kamara. In that week, it turned out to be about 64%. So without knowing anything about the rest of our team and without knowing anything about our opponent other than just

presuming averages, we can kind of guess that we had a 64% chance of winning. So, yeah, so that's how the ESPN stats come into play here. They're really the bedrock of all of this. And what's really great about it too is that because they're going from week to week, they're accounting for injuries, right? So they're accounting for by weeks, COVID, suspension, whatever, it doesn't matter. If players aren't starting, or sorry, fantasy managers aren't starting players, they're going to fall out of the, you know, top X players it takes to meet the requirements

for, you know, a starting spot somewhere. And in turn, anyone that is missing weeks is going to be penalized for it by having what we would expect out of a replacement level player put in his place. So, you know, a lot of fantasy managers are hesitant to take running backs early, right, because they're scared of injury. And there's this focus on injury avoidance. And so war does a great job, I think, anyway, of accounting for that. And, you know, penalizing regardless of the position, really, anyone that does succumb to injury and kind of just blame it that way. So yeah, so that's pretty much how the ESPN stats come in.

I can go a little bit more if you want or if you want to come in, but that was just pretty much for one week in determining what an expected win percentage would be. Yeah, so hopefully we didn't lose too many people there, which I think we might have. Just know it is like a very convoluted process, but it's an extremely logically sound process that does ultimately spit out an elegant, I think, number to really show a lot of different things. And some of your follow-up studies have really done that.

What I thought was extremely interesting was in 2019, so I talk about upside wins championships, anatomy of a league winner, Bell Cowher bust. and your war metric did an excellent job of sort of proving why all of that is correct. In 2019, Christian McCaffrey had a war of 3.2, which was more than Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones, the RB2 and RB3 combined. It was essentially only slightly less than the number two and number three most valuable players by war, which was Michael Thomas and Lamar Jackson. And so having these numbers, you can really do a lot of different things.

You can contrast it to ADP so you can say, okay, how often do you expect to find, you know, a league winning player, let's say a war of 1.5 or more in the double-digit rounds? And guess what? There's probably only like two over the past four years. It was James Connor and, you know, maybe James. James Robinson or whatever. Also talking about positional disparities, that positional value, how valuable is a Travis Kelsey versus a Devante Adams?

Like, it's so hard to get that number across outside of value over a replacement player. And I think even that doesn't do as good of a job. But do you want to talk about your, I guess, your follow-up article to the introduction you did, which is still on the side. People at home can read that. If we did lose you with that little monologue explaining everything, it is easier to follow with the charts and the numbers and things you have outlined in that article. Yeah.

So, yeah, positionally, the top of the distributions at running back definitely bared the most fruit. And when you look at ADP, even with the risk of injury, it's worth taking. taking a stab on these top, top named running backs. Wide receiver pools just tend to be very, very deep. And you can get good production from them later in rounds in which you just, yeah, you just don't see a whole lot of that from running back. Yeah, and as far as, as far as like the top couple

of running backs that are gonna be coming off the board, every year, the drop-off is very quick. So while you might be running into a landmine and picking someone that's going to get injured or whatever else might have you, the winner of your league is probably going to be one that got lucky and picked the top running back that didn't. So you may as well take a bite of the apple there and go for it. Yeah. That's sort of what upside wins championships describes. It's just that in fantasy football, it's not a normal distribution, it's a power law distribution or Pareto distribution where essentially in a normal distribution like IQ or height, there is the average and most of the data points in your sample

are clustered around the average, whereas in a power law distribution all the way at the top, there's very few producing the most significant outcomes. and then many, many posting insignificant outcomes. And that's fantasy football. If you want to look at the number of running backs by fantasy best fantasy season, there's two with 400 or more, there's four with 350 or more. There's 10 with 300 or more. And then within the 50 to 100, there's like 3,000.

And you see that with war. You see that with a lot of things. It's just what that means from a draft perspective. It's, you know, you could compile a team with a number of 80p beaters. Let's say you have the QBs. You have the in a 12 team league, you have the QB4, the RB11, the RB12, the wide receiver, 12, 13, 14, and the tight end five. You know, that's great.

Like you're above average at every position. But that team in 2019 would have got beat by. a team with Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, Lamar Jackson, and like no one else, just guys brought up on league winners. It's, it's, you know, the relatively few great players far and away, you know, wins the day. And so at running back, that's what, what you found and what Bell Cowher Buss talked about is like, you, you, the top three to top five highest score in running backs are typically going to be the most valuable players year over year. And the RB1 is far and away going to be, I mean, Christian McCaffrey, it's like broke leagues basically. Alvin Kamara,

if you factor in his ridiculous postseason broke leagues. Oh, yeah, absolutely. And, you know, just looking at the 2020 results you've got for half point PPR, Kamara and Cook are at around about three and a half. They're actually pretty close. And then Derek Henry, is the next player up and the drop-off there is, looks like about 0.7 wins. So it could be, you know, that could be another win that your team got. You might have missed the playoffs by taking Derek Henry,

who was still awesome, versus a Dalvin Cook or an Alvin Kamara. Yeah, that's also a reason why Graham Barfield, maybe you've heard of him, loves to draft in tiers. He's always ranting about tiers. I think he's going to have a tier article coming up. But it's like, like in Dynasty leagues,

Like what's the difference between the rookie tight end one, Kyle Pitts, versus the rookie tight end two Pat Friermuth, like seven tiers? Like, you just see one to two. And that's, that's also the case with Christian McCaffrey. It's, it's what are you realistically willing to, to give up to get the 101? Like, your round one and round two, that honestly, like, if you have the 112 and the 201, is that worth just the 101? It really might.

really might. One thing I've been thinking about a lot about is not only like in season long, but in best ball too, like, you know, actually let's take it from a season long perspective, right? Like you get a top three pick. You lock in your, you know, McCaffrey or your Henry or your Camara, right? Your RB2 spot at that point, does it even really matter? Like, as long as you have like a replacement level player just because that one,

back is generating so many wins above replacement. Like as long as you're perfectly average at RB2, you can make up those points elsewhere. You know, and one of the things I've been thinking a lot about is just like, why not just take, you know, if you get a top through,

a top four pick, it's automatically like just such a massive advantage for all the reasons we, you know, we talked about. But like, man, like just attack receiver and try to win that flex spot. Um,

from there on out. Like, I think your, your data kind of supports, a similar type of strategy. Is that right, Jeff? So I'm just going to cut it. So I disagree with that just on the basis of I want, like Jeff said, you know, the leagues are won or lost by the top five running backs. A, you know, there's no difference between an RB20 and an RB30, but like I still desperately, you know,

want to get with my round two, my round three pick, a running back with the potential to land in that top six or so spots. And I think there's a lot, I mean, Cam Acres, Naji Harris, Antonio Gibson, Joe Mixon. Yeah, but I want to let Jeff talk about this, but like just looking at his war from last year, you know, it was Camara Cook, then Henry, then a huge drop off to even James Robinson and then Aaron Jones, like, you know, your top 12, 15 players, there's only like six or seven backs in there. And most of them, except for Robinson, were drafted really early. So, like, that middle tier of backs is just like, you know,

it's just such a, I don't know, such a hard tier to draft from. Like, especially this year, the way ADP is setting up, you know, the first, you know, even after coming off a bad year, like the first 15 picks, you know, nine of them, at least 10 of them are going to be backs. So, you know, after you get past those nine or ten backs, right? Like, it's just you're kind of, you're kind of drafting from the same tier that might not produce the same amount of war that a as a receiver might or even like Darren Waller. Yeah, there's also, I mean, there are, just because you're in that tier doesn't mean you're not going to get a player that ends up this year as someone that's going to compare for that or compete for that number one spot. I look at someone like Jonathan Taylor who just took a player.

off in the second half of last year. He could definitely be a guy that is, that could be, you know, that guy. Antonio Gibson, I mean, who knows? They seem to, you know, he seemed to have some games. I remember I think the Thanksgiving game, he looked like he looked like he was going to be, you know, just given every single carry. But I don't think it was as consistent going forward. One of the guy I do want to point out, though, is,

that could really throw a wrench in things is Travis Kelsey. Like he, as much as I stand, you know, going that route at running back, Travis Kelsey's consistency year over year has just been, you know, I don't even know if Gronk has been as consistent as he has. No, he hasn't. Yeah. Yeah, with his injury. Kelsey's on another level, man.

He's on another level. Yeah. So with him sitting in 2020, he came out as ranked. number four overall behind Henry Cook and Kamara. You know, he's probably not going to have, he might be a safer play than some of your top backs in ADP this year. So you might, if you wanted to go that direction, I still wouldn't with the number one pick. But he could at least be in the conversation.

So, yeah, I mean, one of the things, one of the things I've been doing just in my own drafts this year is like, you know, after, after really the top six backs go in some order, you know, it's obviously, you know, the big three and then you have, you know, the Barclay, the Zeke. I like my teams a lot when I draft Kelsey at like seven or eight, even over Jonathan Taylor, and then you come back and you get, you know, a mixing or Antonio Gibson. I think your data just kind of backs up the fact that Kelsey, yeah, while he's probably not worth the top four or five pick just because the the bell cows that go in the top five or six like we've just talked about you know they are the league winners um and provide more upside than a tight end can

i think your data just backs up you know that teams built around kelsey and then going with a running back in that second round because there is a nice a nice tier even though it's not a safe is the first roundbacks um you know it's still it's still a sizable you know tier that you can draft from between mixing and Gibson and even Aaron Jones at this point. Aaron Jones is slipping into the top or out of the top 15. Oh, yeah, yeah, a lot of guys in there that could, yeah, Aaron Jones, I didn't think of him. He's, you know, I think anyone on Green Bay right now has got the, got a big, a big pause sign. Because, you know, so much goes through Aaron Rogers even in the run game.

But he could, he's, he's a guy that too, Aaron comes back, you know, know, he could compete for, you know, for the number, maybe I'll say the number two spot. I don't know if anyone's going to compete with CMC. Yeah. Well, I mean, even if Jones or Rogers doesn't come back, I think the, you know, Jamal Williams leaving is huge because, you know, not only is, you know, AJ Dylan's going to take over. Yeah, he's going to take those 120, 150 carries, but AJ Dillon's is zero in the passing game,

you know. Jamal Williams had 35 targets, you know, 35. 40 targets. Not all of those, of course, are going to go to Aaron Jones, but I do think we're going to see Jones a little bit more involved in the passing game than for a super efficient player like he is. I think that's even, you know, huger, gives him even more upside. But one thing I want to ask you about Jeff is, um, quarterbacks man. This year, you know, we talked about this last week with our, our guy B, but like quarterback ADP is way more efficient this year than it really ever has been, I think. You know, back in 20.

2010, 2011, 2012, J.J. Zacharison kind of came out with the, you know, his whole theory on late round quarterbacks and why quarterbacks were going, you know, just massively, massively overdrafted. And we saw a big correction, obviously. And then this, you know, advanced time, eight, nine years. And now quarterbacks are, you know, definitely not going in the first two rounds like they used to back in the day. But, you know, we're seeing the homes in the third, Josh Allen and the fourth, Kyle Murray, Lamar, Dak, that whole tier in the fifth. But your war data, really kind of showed, you know, just how valuable having one of those top six, top seven, top eight quarterbacks are. I think it was eight quarterbacks or top 30 or top 31 in war last

year. And that includes like Justin Herbert and Ryan Tannahill. But, you know, has this kind of emergence of dominant, you know, running quarterbacks? Has it really changed your draft strategy at all? You know, it's definitely put up some feelers. I'm still not sure if 2020 was just an outlier year or not. It'll be really interesting to see how this year plays out because, yeah, the thing with quarterbacks is, you know, historically, they're a little bit harder to predict on a fantasy level year over year because it's very, you know, very much weighted on touchdowns.

passes, which sometimes can vary and touchdown rates and things like that. So it can, you know, while I've got Josh and Allen, Conler Murray and Pat Mahomes, well, and Aaron Rogers, all four were first round valuations in 2020 based on war. So they brought that kind of value over a replacement level player. And, you know, one thing that is interesting to me is, you know, the N. NFL is starting to, at least a lot of teams are starting to kind of take on a little bit of the analytics movement and just pass more in general. And so I think teams with good quarterbacks are more likely to do that, which is in turn going to give the better quarterbacks more of an edge

from a fantasy perspective. And I know someone that I've got to, you know, someone that I've got my eye on this year is Justin Herbert, too, because I forget the name of their new coach, but he's really stressed the, you know, the willingness to pass more and maybe mimic what they've been doing with Josh Allen and Buffalo, too. So, you know, and you're not going to probably get that as much with the more middle of the road quarterbacks. So I think that's what's causing, you know, these numbers to go up for, yeah, for some of the top QBs. Well, hey, man, I mean, if you could hire a goldfish and they would be more into data than Anthony Lynn was.

But, yeah, no, yeah, I think Brandon Staley was a sharp hire and, you know, sharp on the chargers to kind of revamp their staff after the Lynn years. Yeah, I just, you know, the point that you made to see if 2020 was an outlier year is, is interesting. You know, one thing, Scott and I talked about a lot last year was just how much, first and foremost, like, no fans would affect games, but also, you know, the lack of practice time, I think especially early in the year, really affected defenses. Defenses in all, you know, defenses in general, like, rely so much on communication and reps. And when you cut practice time in half or even, like, you know, by 66%, you know, percent, whatever, you cut it by two-thirds.

I think that really affected defensive performance, especially early in the year. I mean, we saw touchdown records broken. I mean, there are six, seven just truly elite offenses that really stand out when you just even look back over the last five or six years. You know, but the game is trending towards, you know, fewer penalties called on the offense. There were fewer offensive holding penalties per snap than like any year in NFL history last year.

There's more, excuse me, there's less DPI call, less defensive. pass interference called. They never call OPI, like ever, unless it's just, like, blatant, and, like, one of the receivers tackles a corner. So I do think last year was certainly an outlier year from just, like, a defensive perspective, because teams just didn't have the reps. But on the flip side, this is the way the NFL wants the game to be played. They want high-scoring games.

They want a ton of points. And, you know, we're at a time in the game now where there's, like, man, like seven, eight elite quarterbacks that it doesn't even matter about the match. Like they're going to go out and score three or four touchdowns, even if it's against, you know, top five defense. So I do think there's some credence to the argument that last year was an outlier just because of COVID. But I also think on the flip side that this is a trend that's likely to stay. And I think we're going to see quarterbacks continue to go earlier and earlier. And I think it makes a ton of sense, especially in like bestball.

I mean, like top 12, like outside the top 12 quarterbacks, yeah, you know, the QB13, the QB30 is completely replacements. replaceable, but, you know, by your metrics, Josh Allen, Kyle Murray, all the Konami Code quarterbacks are certainly not replaceable. I mean, those are lead winning assets. Yeah, getting stuck with someone like Kirk Cousins and best ball, probably not going to be the, the, he's a great QB too. Yeah, he's a great QB. Maybe. Yeah, there you go. Yeah. All right, let's transition over to the Scott Fishbowl. Draft starts next week. And this is actually kind of a good segue, because quarterbacks and the Scott Fishball, the way that the Madman Scott Fish has the league scoring set up. You know, you get heavily penalized for interceptions.

You get penalized for incompletions. You get penalized for sacks. So it really actually does a really good job of like encapsulating just how, you know, it does a good job of encapsulating quarterback value in general, not just from like a fantasy perspective where all the great running quarterbacks are the most valuable guys. It's like, no, like Aaron Robbins. Rogers and like even somebody like Kirk Cousins, you know, the more efficient quarterbacks

are going to be better plays in the Scott Fish Bowl. So you just wrote an article up on the site. It's free for everybody to read if you want to go check it out. And if you haven't already, you definitely need to. But yeah, it seems like quarterback is the way to go with like the top five or six picks. Yeah, and maybe even more too. And, you know, there's a, in part of the article, I, well, Scott found a site that has some ADP for Scott Fishbowl.

So I compared the ADP for this year for how, you know, the players did last year. And the market, while the market is definitely pro quarterback and there's, you know, they're being drafted much, much, much higher, plenty in the first round. You know, they take up most of the first round. They're still not quite enough. It looks like there's players are still. looking at the top players at other positions a little bit too heavily. You know, for instance, I've got Travis Kelsey being drafted as number four in the fishbowl this

year. Well, he earned a rank of seven last year. So he's, you know, like we talked about before, he's definitely a safe play. So I don't even know if I hate him at four, but I would, yeah, I would lean towards finding, solidifying my, my quarterbacks as, you know, as quickly as possible. But, I mean, there is kind of a zig there, though, too. There, you know, someone like Tom Brady or Ryan Tannohill, they were worth like a 13 and a 10 overall, respectively. And they're getting drafted at the end of the second round, 23 and 24. So you're getting about a round of value for, you know, if you decide to take one of those guys. and maybe just, you know, get to say Kelsey pick.

I forget exactly how the draft works as far as the, how the rounds work. But, but yeah, so quarterbacks still a little bit undervalued. And wide receivers actually kind of as well, I'm seeing some good values for them. Yeah, I mean, the thing with receivers, and I think you touched on this earlier, is just it's so deep. I mean, you know, we're going through projections a couple months ago. I mean, you could theoretically feel pretty good about, like, receivers up into, like, the wide receiver 40 to 45 range, like being solid weekly producers. But, yeah, I'm drafting, I think I drew the 11. So I'm going to miss out on all of the elite quarterbacks.

And that's what I was thinking about is zinging while everybody else zags and just try to hope for some running back value to fall to me. But, yeah, I mean, the way Scott, you know, draws up these leagues is, is, always fun because you get such a big variation of drafts and the way people attack them. Where are you drafting that? Have you got your draft set up yet? Oh, well, way to put me on blast. I got the email that put me in like the, you know, NFT style queue with like 10,000 people. And, and that's pretty much it.

Oh, I'm sorry. All right. That's fine. So in lieu of that, I'm just helping everyone else figure out how to go about winning. Yeah, well, help me out, man. I'm drafting 111. Sure. Let's say the first six to seven picks, there's four or five quarterbacks and then McAfree and then maybe Kelsey.

What would you do? So there's four or five quarterbacks and McCaffrey and Kelsey are there? Yeah. Well, no, I'm saying I'm drafting 11. The first five, six, seven picks are quarterbacks. plus McCaffrey plus Kelsey. Do you zig or do you stick with, you stick with quarterbacks?

So kind of near that range. I mean, I think, yeah, from there, someone like Justin Herbert makes sense to me. You could take, you could still take, you know, one of the running backs left or maybe a guy like Russell Wilson. and then hope that maybe Tom Brady or Iantanah Hill, he'll get value on him in round two. And then, yeah, just kind of pick up that value.

Yeah. Yeah, it would be interesting to see how it plays out, you know, first 10. Yeah, you never know. You never know what, how a league will play out. Yeah. Yeah, well, there's so much variation. I mean, this is, you know, that's the thing that Scott does such a good job of is, There's always a lot of madness.

But yeah, Jeff, I want to thank you so much for your time, man. This has been super insightful. Once again, I know we plugged it a bunch, but if you haven't checked out the articles up, part one, two, and three up on the site, definitely wants it. You'll certainly learn something from it. I guarantee you that. You'll come away with some bit of knowledge. But yeah, man, want to thank you for your time.

Oh, absolutely. Thank you, guys. Yeah, it's good. All right. We will be back next week. Don't know who the guest will be. It might just be Scott and I. We might just come on here and bullshit.

I don't know. But for Scott, for Jeff, I'm Graham. Swamp Brass, thanks for listening. Welcome to Fantasy Points Radio. We bring to you Barfield and Perrin. All of these, all of these, all of these parents. They hell of these, air, but all of these errors in Boffett and Barrett, you cannot compare with the kings of this ever, there should be a tariff on all of this

knowledge. To follow up regardless. It's straight to the point like a crow. in the combatants losing my oxygen takes that they got me go whoa so what's the swamp I gotta do I'm chasing all of this cheese even if my competition grew leucis to the mean your boy is never regressing off season through the season three six five two four seven and there's one for the money two bars on the show let's go the money to join they mad