Fantasy Football Daily - 2Barz - Wes Huber and Advanced Matchups

Episode Date: August 19, 2021

Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) and Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) welcome on Fantasy Points' own and the Advanced Matchups king Wes Huber (@WesHuberNFL) to talk a little about Week 1 preseason takeaways, a lot about Dynasty, and go through the Mailbag to answer our listeners' questions. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

One foot of money, two bars on the show. Yo, welcome back, Swamp Rats. We've got a very, very special episode today. We're bringing on a great guest from the site. But before we get to that, I want to mention off the top, like, if you're not subscribed to FantasyPoint.com, like, what are you doing with your life? Like, it's August 18th. This will probably come out and be in your earholes on, like, the 19th or the 20th. Huge draft weekends coming up.

guys like the amount of like the amount of work that we're all collectively putting into the site right now is it's like unconscionable it's unbelievable we got daily updated projections a bunch of cheat sheets that can help you win your leagues our fantasy points generator is popping off and can help you kind of set up not only how you want to plan for your draft but you can take it with you while you draft and know who to take where and when we have just countless countless articles john hanson's draft plans Our entire staffs, players to target, players that are overvalued, players that were avoiding, all of that's up. Scott's got fantastic content up on his guys, the guys he wants on all of his teams. I've got a bunch of best ball strategy articles up if you're still hanging in the best ball streets. I got a super flex strategy guide up. The amount of work that we're putting into it is simply incredible.

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I have some stats, pay some tendencies in there. Yeah, it's just all encompassing. And again, you can get 10 bucks off, 10% off. 1, code 21 Barfield 10, get you 10% off. get you 10% off any subscription, a standard subscription, which will be your season long stuff, and a premium subscription, which will be DFS embedding. And you're definitely going to want to get in on DFS embedding with football season right around the corner. So let's get into it.

Scott, we got a great guest on today. Wes, this is the first time we've had you on the show. We're going to be doing a little mailbag today. We'll do a little mailbag episode at the end of the show. but wanted to kind of get in and then pick Wes's brain on Dynasty. Wes is like our, Wes does obviously, you know, you probably know him pretty well from the advanced matchups article that he did last

year on the site, which was in my opinion the most valuable article we had on the site last year. Wes is going to be bringing that back again for our DFS and premium subscribers this year. So you're definitely not going to want to miss it on that. But in the off season, Wes is like our dynasty mastermind. And for the first half of the show, Scott and I, kind of just want to pick his brain on dynasty and his general philosophy.

But Wes, how's it going, man? How's everything going in Kentucky and everything going your way? Yeah, man, everything's going good. Just living it up in the humidity, Kentucky. I mean, it's not too hot out, but man, the humidity is just it's... That's what gets you. Yeah, it's almost, you can't even go outside, but, you know, I've got to walk our new puppy out there all the time. So, yeah, I mean, just, you know, I'm really...

ready for some football, we're knee-deep and some pre-season, which is okay, you know, and I think we're going to actually get to see some real players coming up these next couple of weeks, you know, with only three games. So that's exciting. And then we got college football coming up. And then the real thing, man, it's coming quick. I know. It always, it feels like, you know, after the 4th of July, I don't know how you guys,

but, like, after the 4th, it's just like a freaking slip-inslide. Just like you get down to the shoot so fast. And you're just like, oh shit, it's here. You know, it's September already. But, yeah, I want to, before we talk Dynasty, like, you know, Scott and, you know, Scott mainly did, like, the, the week one preseason reactions and kind of snap counts and all of that stuff. I helped out a little bit because we've got to give them, got to give Scott a little bit of a breather. But, like, what's your general, what's your general, like, philosophy on preseason games?

Like, do you, like, what do you take away from it? because for Scott and I and most analysts these days, it's like looking into who's playing with the starters, you know, how players are used. You know, what's kind of like your general feel for preseason or like things that you look for? Well, the first thing, I don't overreact to the studs. The studs are going to be studs,

and they've developed that reputation for a reason. And the preseason, I mean, if you think back to previous seasons, you can't tell me what a stud has done in the preseason because who cares? Nobody talks about it. Nobody cares. It's in the past. But what I do put a lot of stock into are the breakouts where guys just step forward in their roles. They come out of nowhere. And, you know, you need to take note, especially in Dynasty, because most of the time they're not going to get a lot of early season action. But one guy like Quez Watkins, that's a guy could actually come into the season with some play this year. Another is with injuries, of course.

You know, we don't want to see injuries in the preseason, and that's obviously something that we want to take note of. But, you know, I think it's informative for everybody. Just the guys that are going to make the 53 men are obviously important in the deeper league. So, and I'm in several of those, and I love to talk deeper league strategy. So, you know, totally valuable. Yeah. So besides Kwez, who, by the way, you wrote up for,

preseason DFS plays. You nailed that call. Besides Quez, who, yeah, like who has caught your eye besides Quez? Well, stick with the Eagles and Tyree Jackson, tied end, quarterback convert. He just got hers, though, man. You see that? Did he? No, I didn't see that.

The news came out like maybe 30 minutes before he started recording. I think he's going to be out for a while. He might not make the team now, unfortunately, but I'm with you. It looked great. Yeah. Okay, well, let's go over to Washington, Jared Patterson, a guy that he didn't even catch a pass last year. He looked phenomenal for Washington. Could possibly be the RB3 there. We'll see. And then also a tight in there, a guy that's like an athletic phenomenon, Samus Reyes,

he never even played football before, came from soccer. And he looked really good, you know, spelling behind, you know, there are a couple of guys there. So, yeah, I'm excited about him. And then I do like Jok Juan Hardy at Dallas. He's broken seven tackles and 11 carries. So, you know, they're just smaller guys. Oh, and Trinity Benson out of Denver. Caught a couple touchdown passes last game. That's a deep wide receiver room.

But he's looking like he might make the roster. Yeah, but Broncos' receiver room is so freaking good, man. Tim Patrick's, they're four. I mean, Patrick would most likely be a three on those teams. But, yeah, the Jared Patterson thing is interesting, right? Because, you know, we know Gibson's role for the most part. We just hope he gets more passing down work. We know JD McKissick's role is obvious.

Like that number three role is like wide open. And we were kind of joking about it on a call. We did with the staff earlier this week. But like Peyton Barber was like one of the worst, if not the worst, running back in the league last year. So Patterson's opportunity to make the team as a UDFA is like wide open. And the fact that he was catching balls like you mentioned because he did not do that at Buffalo and all that action. He didn't do that at all. That was not his game. So him,

you know, getting that working is important. And I've kind of drafted Patterson late in some like the deeper NFFC best ball drafted like, you know, 30, 35 rounds. I've taken Patterson late. Just thinking he's going to end up being the true handcuff, like early down handcuffed to Gibson. But yeah, it's been good to see him get that action. Another guy, Jacob Harris. He just had He's got surgery. Yeah, he just had core surgery, and he's back on the field. That just blows my mind. Just the type of recovery that he made with that just has to be due to age and athleticism.

Yeah. Do you think he's going to, like, do you think he has a chance to carve out any type of role? Because I know, obviously, Higby is the one, and Hopkins will be the two. I don't know about that. From what I was reading, Hopkins is behind. So I think he has a chance to be the two. And then my boy Marquez Stevenson, man, he's already made the roster because of his special teams. But man, he's one of the fastest players in the offense.

Just watch out for Marquez, especially if somebody goes down. You know, he's going to slot right in. Yeah. I think like 90% of our listeners don't care about these deep dynasty stashes, but they just want to talk about two of them. Jacob Harris by My Metrix Spork score for the Q. He's the seventh most athletic tight end since at least 2000. Like honestly comparable to, you know, the Kyle Pitts of the world, a little more athletic than George Kittle even,

who is an all-time freak athlete as well. And then Jared Patterson, just really interesting. Across one, two-game stretch last season, He totaled 710 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. His 178.7 rushing yard per game average in 2020. That ranked 6 best since 2000 on a top 10 list with Ladanian Tomlinson, Matt Forte, Melvin Gordon, DeAngelo Williams. I mean, he's probably nothing.

But who knows? And certainly preseason usage was encouraging. Yeah. Or production. Yeah. Wes, who's the best running back in the NFL from the Mac? I can't think of anybody off the top of my head. I'm just trying to think of it.

Karim Hunt. Oh, right, right, right, right. Yeah, he's Toledo. Duh. Okay, besides Hunt. I know, right? I don't know why Hunt just slipped my mind. Maybe because he was such a freaking badass.

It didn't even matter. Yeah. I didn't know what I'm drawing a blank. Yeah. I can't think of anybody else. wasn't Michael Turner Falcons back wasn't he from the from the Mac

like Illinois or something like that Michael Turner was not I think he was packed well you're gonna make you Google it we'll move on from the match and come back to it but yeah so main reason we want to bring Wes on is to talk through just

go ahead Northern Illinois Hey I don't know I could I don't know why. I just my brain skipped right over Kareem Hunt. Like, I don't know. That was weird.

But yeah, Michael Turner was the first guy I thought up. He's like a, he's long gone now. But, all right. So like I was saying, we want to,

we want to bring Wes on to talk, Dynasty, go through the mailbag. We'll hit on that later. But first and foremost, Wes, like, you know,

I know you play in a shit ton of dynasty leagues. Like what, and Debbie too. And if for our listeners out there who don't know what Debbie is, it's basically like you draft. It's a dynasty league, but you draft these guys in college. So you're holding on to these guys for years and years.

So you've got to be like on top of everything college football related. But Wes, for your dynasty leagues, what is like your general philosophy and like maybe one to two things that you take into every draft that you do? Well, I don't want to go overboard with age. You know, you don't want to get, you don't want to project too far out. anything more than four years is pretty, you're setting yourself up to be too young. And overlooking just too many studs. So you definitely don't want to overlook guys like Devonte Adams because he's almost, you know,

he's going on 29 because, I mean, the guy's in the prime of his career. But at the same time, you know, there are certain exceptions to that role. you know, if a guy's young but also has, you know, top of the position talent, then definitely you want to look at him. But, I mean, it's, it's, I hate to throw athleticism in there, but I do, I do factor that. And I can't help doing that because of, because of my Devy interest. I see myself When I end up drafting a team I do end up drafting more athletic guys

Both NFL and college season long And I just can't get it out of my system But you know I also draft for value of course You know basically here's the thing I never go into a draft or I never go into a pick With one guy in mind unless I'm the first pick in the draft I always have several guys in mind, so I don't get too caught up in one player because, you know, I have my favorite players just like everybody else.

But I feel like that's a big trap that you set for yourself, trying to go after your players all the time. So, you know, I like to mix and match and keep it fresh, you know. Yeah, that's like my biggest thing that I try to do too is like just be flexible, you know, and depending on where your draft is going in the fourth, fifth, six rounds. just force positions. Like, you know, I mean, you, you can be flexible with your strategy, not come in with some sort of like set plan. One big thing that I've learned from playing dynasty for now, you know, six, seven years, and especially playing with like Scott and his partner in a lot of teams, T.J. Kalkins is, you know, I didn't skew like super, super

old where I would take like, you know, 28, 29 year olds on like every pick. But I definitely didn't build for that four-year window that you're talking about. I usually kept it to like a two to three. And I think finding that right blend of, you know, hey, guys that can, you know, they're going to be week one starters for you, no matter, you know, no matter what, finding that blend of like veteran and youth infusion is huge. And it is a balance because, I mean, I'm super competitive. I want to go and win year one. I want to win year two. I want to win year three. You know, I'm not trying to like, you know, punt year one to try and win. You know, I'm not trying to, like, you know, year three. I'm trying to be competitive in all three years. And that's certainly one thing I've tried

to get much, much better at. And you know me. I go the complete opposite where I'm trying to lose year one. Yeah. Get the 101. See, I can't stand. I can't do that, man. I hate looking at 0 and 7. I don't know how you. I can't do it. I don't know how you do it, Scott. Like I cannot punt a season. I can't because I know it pays off in the end because I drafted a bunch of guys like you who take that approach, which means all the value isn't trying to win year two, year three, and beyond. It's like Warren Buffett when he's investing. He's like, you know, a lot of people are trying to make money this quarter or this year, this fiscal year. I am trying to buy and hold ideally forever. And that's, that's me. I'm trying to buy and hold ideally forever. And so he beats people year five,

year 10, year 50, and so on and so on. And so on. And so what I do is I adopt the year one tank, then bank strategy, and look at me now in the Fantasy Points Dynasty League, far and away the best team set to dominate for the next five years. Secret League, which we're not allowed to talk about. Same thing. So I see I would disagree. I don't see that. The Fantasy Points Dynasty League, you think you got the best team? No, you're talking about a different different team. That team actually isn't that good. Not being tight-end premium threw me off, and I traded back a bit too much. But the other one we're in, it's just, like, far and away, one of the best rosters I've ever seen. It's good. Your quarterbacks, I'm not blown away by them,

but you see, okay, so here's the thing. Like, I don't think, I don't, I don't draft for right away. Yeah, the Secret League is easily my worst league. I'm not even going to go into that. It's good for me because I have your rookie pick, your first round rookie pick this year. But yeah. Oh, shit. But the thing is, is I don't ever punt a position. I don't care what format it is. But you always punt a position, always.

Oh, yeah. Yeah. And I punt ideally quarterback and running back. And then I want to get those positions in the rookie draft where there's so much cheaper. Running back is ideal to punt, in my opinion. Yeah. If you go extreme year one tank, maybe quarterback, but really running back just because there's so many avenues for those guys to fail, you know, the higher injury risk, but then we have to withstand, you know, RB1 duties throughout free agency and then the draft where, you know, like Melvin Gordon's going to get cucked by Javante Williams this year. If he's not outright supplanted, it's a committee which tanks his value.

So if you drafted him before free agency, you know, you saw his value. you plummet. So I want guys who we guaranteed to see their value increase over the next few years when I'm competitive. What I like to do is I just, I don't punt a position, but throw the secret league aside what I usually try to go into is to have a team that each player that I'm going to focus on. I won't take the old guys until later and as a as a rule, you know, guys like Cole Beasley. but definitely I like to keep my guys in a younger range. So I at least get four years out of them. And to me,

I don't think you can really project further out than four years without a huge tradeoff and just variability. Right. That's why I'm always trying to compile rookie picks. You guys don't like losing in year one. And that'll pay off in the DFB League, Graham won year one. So his buy-ins paid for for the next 12 years.

But nothing's worse to. me than just sitting there looking at a declining roster. You know, you just lost a few guys and it's it's just trending down. And that's so hard to dig your your way out of it. It does. Yeah. And that's that's that's the mistake. Go ahead. No, I was just going to say that's the mistake I made early in my dynasty career. Scott is like I would do that same exact thing. You know, I'd be like, yeah. Back when you were partners with Jacob Rick Road. Oh, that was my, that's my guy. I still love. Yeah. No, he's he. But he's he. But he. But he. is the, you know, pinnacle, you know, win year one guy. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Jake,

you know, yeah. And Jake has like longstanding, you know, track record of winning with that. It's like at the same time, you've got to balance it out. You got to balance it out having, you know, having some sort of, you know, plan in year three and year four. Well, so, you know, you talk about skewing towards, usually skewing towards youth. And I have the, I'm lucky enough to be able to look at your dynasty rankings that aren't published anywhere yet. I love this take. You've got Justin Jefferson at wide receiver one. And I think that's become more consensus as the summer has gone on. Depending on where you look, you'll see a CD Lamb at wide receiver one. You'll see AJ Brown at wide receiver one. You'll see Tyree Kilt, wide receiver one, some spots do. But I love your Justin Jefferson take. You've got them as I think your fifth or sixth player off your board.

and Scott told me in confidence one time that you think Justin Jefferson is going to be a future Hall of Famer. Future Hall of Famer. I freaking love that call. I love that. Now, I did qualify, you know, provided he stays healthy. Of course. I mean, you know, he complains. He complains that he doesn't get enough attention.

And I fully understand because what he did last year is just, I mean, it's, I mean, I'm just blown away. And, you know, I will say that there are. are several guys here. I don't want to get too caught up in the fact that he's my wide receiver one, because I do love C.D. Lamb, and I do love Devante Adams. I think for the next four years, you're going to get top three production, and that's, I mean, easy to say, I want Devante Adams. So, like, if you were to take C.D. Lamb, Devonte Adams, Tyree Kill, he's only 27, you know. This guy's, just a freak of nature. And then I think after that, though, there's a drop off. You know, then you get then you get down to some guys that have lots of talent.

I love A.J. Brown. I love D.K. Matt Gaff. I love Calvin Ridley. But I don't love their situations as much. And at D.K., he's close to being up in that group. And same with AJ. Ridley, I'm not so much because, you know, Matt Riley. And that's another thing.

I want to look at the quarterback. And I want to look at like, am I going to get at least four years out of him too? Right. Because then if you go from a situation, like, look at the Denver Broncos. Like, they've got some really good wide receivers. I love me some Jared Judy. I know Scott loves Cordland Sutton. I do too.

I don't love him when his knees, you know, falling all over the ground. But, you know, he seems to be coming back together. But like, what is that quarterback situation, man? It's like, yeah, they may get Aaron Rogers and then boom, they're all in, they're all like way up. But, you know, we don't know. So as far as like Justin Jefferson, I mean, this, the kid, let me just name the top

10 wide receivers against cover 1, man coverage, one high safety, and in fantasy points per route over the last three years. You got Devonte Adams, you got Justin Jefferson, you got A.J. Brown. You got Michael Thomas. You got Stefan Diggs. You got Adam Thiel and 14 touchdowns last year. You got Tyree Kill, Cooper Cup, and Amory Cooper, and then Julio Jones. I mean, we're not talking about a flute group here. And Justin Jefferson's number two. two. He's right there next to, he's tied actually 0.82 with

DeVonte Adams. I don't know. It's probably a, you know, a third number there hidden, but Adams is above him. But, I mean, that's just phenomenal. And then he's also up in the top five against cover three. So the two coverages that he's going to see the most in the NFL are

cover one and cover three. Yeah. So you can't just ghost him. He's going to produce. Let me just to interrupt for a second. Wes Huber is the best matchup guy in all of fantasy football, bar none, the best. I learned so much from reading your articles. You're one of my favorite writers. I read everything you put out religiously, but truthfully, a lot of it goes over my head. I'm just too much of a dummy. Wes, why don't you explain for us what it takes for a wide receiver

to beat cover one and cover three and why that's important. Well, why it's important is because they're going to play, they're going to face those coverages on, on average, 50% of their offensive snaps. So the rest is just going to be a bunch of, it's going to be a hodgepodge of, you know, a whole bunch of different, either vanilla or exotic coverages.

And that's where you have your other guys that come in and specialize. But I do want to say, Scott, when you say things like that, I don't even know how to respond. I'm flattered, obviously, but I mean, I just... Scott's the best height man to have. Scott is like the number one height man. Love it.

My sunburned face blushes, you know. I was going to actually follow up and ask a similar question. Like, you know, you track the cover one and cover three stats, you know, religiously. How sticky are those year over year? Like how much, you know, how often is like Devonze Adams continuing to finish, you know, top five and fantasy points per route run against cover one? Like, how sticky is that year over year? Oh, it doesn't change. Really?

There's like zero variability. Wow. And it was almost an identical top 10 before last year. Interesting. So the same guys are getting open against the same coverage as year over year. Yeah. Okay. So, yeah.

Go ahead. Can you explain for our listeners just a little bit what cover one defense is and what it would take for an outside, I guess, X wide receiver to dominate against, cover one. Who might struggle and why? Okay, so cover one, you're going to have one safety. The other, the strong safety. And that's the most common coverage cell, right? How often do we see that? Around 30 percent, 30 percent of all snaps. And then you're also going to have, you know, some more exotic man coverages. But, you know, those numbers are, they're harder to get a lot of reliable information from. But, you know, cover zero is probably the next closest one that we can actually pull data from. But basically, cover one, one high safety, the free safety, the strong

safety is going to move down into the box. He is going to either cover a tight end or he's going to, he's going to rush the passer. And then you're going to have your two outside corners, your slot corners, they're going to, they're all going to be in man coverage. So basically what what the defense is trying to do is they're trying to divert all the receivers towards the single high safety. If a receiver can get outside of the leverage that the cornerback has, then they can work to the sidelines and either just attack vertical or cut to the inside. And sometimes you'll see that happen. If both receivers can do it like Thielen and Jefferson, then the safety can only go in one direction.

So the safety will try to help one side of the field, and he can't do anything for the other side. And that's what leaves these guys wide open. But you got cornerbacks that are their entire purpose is to cut off that leverage to keep them to the inside. But you just got some guys that you just can't muscle like that, and they just throw you off. And there's either so quick or they're so strong, their functional strength is so, you know, it's just so. valuable and something that you know you can't track with statistics and and you see that with all these guys like especially like a j brown this guy's a beast like you don't you don't control what he does on his route we saw that with marlin marlin humphrey last year the first time they played

baltimore i mean he was just throwing him out of the way and and and that's okay they got five five yard cushion there j brown you don't want to try to body up so um but then he cover three You got your cornerbacks that are there in man on cover one. They drop back into a three deep shell. And you need to run different types of routes to beat that. Yeah. So, yeah. So, like, going back to cover one, right?

Like, what is, you know, every receiver has a little kind of thing that they're good at, right? But, like, what's that one thing or two things that Justin Jefferson, what made him so good against cover one last year? Route running and footwork. is just he's he's just lightning you know another guy that we're going to see I think and I think Scott would agree

is as Elijah Moore this guy is his footwork is electricity you just can't you can't you can't keep keep it in front of you he's just he's so he's so maneuverable

and Jefferson he's a thinner framed guy but I mean he's just almost impossible to track in man coverage. Yeah, to the point where he's right up there with Adams. Yeah, with more, what I'm so excited about is, like you mentioned, the separation ability against man, but like Zach Wilson was the most accurate quarterback. Like if you adjust for drops, adjust for on target throws, like Zach Wilson is among the top

five or eight quarterbacks last year and on target throws, like any field depth. So if he gets a guy that's like more, he's getting open quick and fast, like he's going be able to get the ball into his hands very, very quickly. But you do this to me every podcast. You just block out five minutes for Scott to hype up Elijah Moore and just my man crush. You know, steal hard erection every time I watch this. It is the- That's that tongue cat that you've been taken, dude. It's inside joke prior to the show.

Yeah. So here's everything to love about Elijah Moore. is even if he's just a slot, he is already one of the best slot wide receivers and football. Massive PPR cheat code upside. He averaged 10.28 receptions per game last year. But he has elite speed. So he has that T.Y. Hilton, Tyler Lockett, upside where on the scene route, he could take to the house easily.

And that's what we saw from Zach Wilson. I kept referencing his accuracy on balls thrown 30 plus yards through the air. like the best quarterback in all of football last year on deep targets, 30 plus yards. It was Patrick Mahomes who completed, adjusted for drops like, I don't know, 29%. And then Zach Wilson was at like 69%. Absolutely obscene. And so you love the chemistry there. Zach Wilson's taking him out on cute bromance dates to fancy Italian dinners.

It's already his top guy. And then he's also just so silky. smooth as a route runner. I believe he can get open at will outside just as he does from the slot. He's a lead after the catch. There's just, we can talk about him all day. But we should, I feel like we should splice up all of your Elijah Moore love into one podcast that we've had all these all these all these awesome. Yeah, just the Elijah pod. But yeah, Wes, great stuff on cover one and cover three. I wanted to ask you, kind of switching gears to a little bit.

Like, what the hell do we do with Michael Thomas and Dynasty? Like, where are you at with him? Oh, boy. Yeah, I was struggling where to slot him in just because we don't know when he's coming back. But then I'm telling myself, you know, even if he's out half the year, we still get the next three and a half as long as he comes back healthy. And I think that's kind of what this is, is he didn't want to have surgery. So for whatever reason, who really cares?

None of our business. He comes back. It's just not quite right. So he just goes ahead and has the surgery. And to be honest, I don't think the Saints are, I don't think they're a playoff team. I mean, their defenses, but, I mean, to me, a playoff team,

it revolves, it goes through your quarterback. And I'm not sold on either quarterback at the moment. So we'll see, especially James. I don't think James is the guy. that's going to, I had high hopes for him. But just because I thought he could get the best out of Thomas, you know, the two of them. But I just, we're seeing some bad things from him. And, you know, at least with Taysam Hill, he's got the rushing yardage to counteract

the possible turnover. But with Thomas, I'm around 50. I dropped him. I dropped him back around 10 spots. Yeah, I've got him. I mean, just outside of guys like Mike Evans, Marri Cooper, you know, Keenan Allen, guys, he would have been way ahead of had he been healthy. And I'm not really excited about it.

I traded for him in a Debbie League. It was actually with Brett Scott right before he left the league. But actually, I was able to trade and get Terry McCorm back. So it worked out. Graham gave a shout out to T.J. Calcans earlier in the show, who is my dynasty partner. and maybe 60% of my leagues. And so his influence on my approach is just, you know, massive. And Michael Thomas is always his guy.

Like he had him in nearly 100% of his leagues the year he was a rookie, went out of his way to draft him. His massive blow-up season, he had him in like 90% of teams. The next year, zero. Like last year, zero. He worked that perfectly. So you know how I say I don't like declining assets? he played that perfectly, traded him at peak value because he saw, okay, Drew Breeze,

maybe the most accurate quarterback in football history is looking pretty nude-alarmed. Maybe only has one year left. And that's really important to a guy like Thomas and how he wins. And he got out way, and it was just the perfect, the perfect call. Yeah, I factor in like, you know, what Silva was hinting at on our last show where, you know, you know, New Orleans might be running thin with him and his attitude and the off-field distractions and things like that. And yeah, it's certainly worrisome. And that's a guy who is massive downside potential, which can really tank and really hurt your, you in a dynasty league.

Yeah. Well, you know, you look at him, though. And you could say the same thing for Alan Robinson. I mean, what did he have going for him coming into the season? He had nothing, you know? I mean, same age, you know, looking for a contract, but, you know, obviously Thomas, got his, but, you know, he, he had basically nothing at quarterback, and all it took was a draft pick, and it wasn't even a top five draft pick, a top, you know, 11 pick, and he's got his quarterback now, and, I mean, Robinson's stock is shooting. So, and I see what you're saying, but I just don't think that Thomas is at the point where we can really call him a declining asset, because he's, he's a lot better than people say he is, he is not a slant receiver.

So if you hear anybody say that, they don't know what they're talking about. Yeah. A-Rob is more of a slant receiver than Thomas, I feel like, you know. Yeah, me, a vertical guy too. He likes his deep stuff. But yeah. He doesn't have like a dominant route tree. That's for sure.

Yeah. Yeah. It's good to hear you be, you know, kind of like the voice of reason with Thomas because I've got them in a few spots. Luckily, I think I have them on two teams. One of them is like a team that I'm just dead. So it doesn't even really matter. But yeah.

I think you're right. I think, you know, we just don't know. You know, there's a lot of like nuclear vibes coming from Peyton's, the Saints, and, you know, Thomas's relationship with the team, which is certainly scary. But at the end of the day, I mean, they just gave them a huge extension. It would take a lot for them to move on from heaven. You know, like you mentioned with Arob, Thomas's quarterback situation can change really, really quickly. And then it also looked like somebody was interested in Thomas there for a little bit. the Saints float him, Thomas is going to have. Like, they would, you know, we always say with the same.

Like, did you imagine him going to the Jags? Oh, baby. Yeah. Yeah. That'll make it move again there. Who recruited him? Who coached him in college? Yeah.

That Urban Meyer guy? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, that would be nice. Jags have a ton of cap space too. So it'll be interesting to see what happens with Thomas. I still, I think the end of the day, kind of like the same approach I had with with Rogers all offseason was like man the

the Packers are going to figure this out they're going to kiss and make up and maybe they haven't kissed and made up totally but there is I still think we're going to see Thomas back this year maybe not a class act guy that's going to stab a franchise in the heart yeah yeah um all right so another player that I wanted to ask you about who's been kind of like difficult to value because of injuries but not because of an injury of his own is Drell Henderson um obviously cam makers is out for the rest of the year um You know, the track record, we talked about this with Edwin Porris, maybe about a month ago on the podcast. Scott and I did. You know, the track record of running backs, especially young running backs coming off Achilles' tears is like thin.

I mean, there's just not that much data to go off of. I mean, it's just such a rare injury. So Drell Henderson, like, you know, he's in the final year of his rookie deal. He's a guy that I liked coming out of college quite a bit. Face planed year one came back last year. with a lot better. Excuse me, he's got two more years left on his rookie deal. Is that right? Yeah. Or do I have the math wrong? 2019? Yeah. Yeah. He's got two more years. Yeah, two more years left. So D. Hendo, man. Like, you know, he's got the, you know, 1A potential bell cow role coming this year. But, you know, long term, you know, Acres is going to come back. Henderson has, you know, not necessarily

been a bastion of health himself. How are you handling Henderson in Dynasty right now? And how much have you moved him up your ranks? I moved him up, let's see, 70 spots. I don't love Henderson, though. Some of the guys, some of my friends at PFF, some guys that I value their opinion, they were not impressed by him, that they were the ones who did a lot of the grading for Memphis. and I mean, he was a guy that that couldn't always find the open gap. And, you know, I don't think we should really go into, like, injuries with him. I just think that's been overblown. So I think he's going to have a big year.

But I think I don't have him in any leagues. Yeah, I have him in some best balls, but I don't have him in any leagues. And I think if you have him, I would trade him. I would move him right now because it's not that I don't think he's going to have a big year. he's going to be running behind a great offensive line. I mean, a potential top five offensive line. But I think after this year, I mean, Cam Acres is the kind of guy that,

what is it, a three-year injury? I mean, the only other guy I could think about is Dante Foreman, and he was out for multiple years, and is only now, like, establishing himself again. So, I mean, it's exactly right. I mean, we don't really have much of a precedent there. And, but, you know, I mean, you got to love Cam Acres. but it's so at least what two years a year and a half but look at landa collins he tore his aco and what

december and now he's he's back in the field you know i mean i'm not sorry acel is his achilles and just that's crazy but um yeah i still have acres a little bit higher than henderson i think i think his upside and hopefully he can come back soon enough he's a he's an athletic freak you know five-star guy um which super rare um the true five-star guy and um but uh yeah henderson i think right now his values is peaked. I think it's at the point where I think I would try to move in. Yeah. I think if you're like solid with your running back depth and Henderson's like your three

or four, that's the perfect spot to sell high and just kind of cash in before the season starts. So I'm with you there. With Acres like, you know, it's, it sucks because like he was set up just for the perfect spot. Like you mentioned, he has the pedigree. He had the production. You know, I just think he was, you know, I think he was like being, for redraft,

I think he was being drafted like at or near his ceiling. So I kind of ended up, I luckily ended up with very little of him in best ball this year. But man, I mean, he was just, I've got him on a number of dynasty teams. And I've been holding for quite some time. And just brutal. I think with acres, I think you just hold. If you have acres, you just hold them, stash him on your IR and just see where we're at, you know, maybe, you know, February and March, see how his rehab's.

going. But yeah, I think. Or trade for them, you know, same with Thomas. You know, go trade for them. If you can get them at a really low value, you know, and then, I mean, I would, I would be thrilled to get a first round rookie pick for Henderson. Man, I'd just do backflips. Yeah. I've seen a few of those in the leagues that I'm in that, like, you know, competitive teams that are trading for Henderson, you know, so it'll be back half of the first round. But in Super Flex leagues, like, if you don't have a quarterback problem, like, that back half of the first round can be nice. You know, you can get some receivers that are. You know, you can get some receivers that are. fall on there. So yeah, I'm with you in Henderson. As much as I did love him coming out of college, I don't have a ton of them. I think I've got him in our staff league. But yeah, the spots I do. Yeah, the only Henderson I think I have is only Henderson I have just where I was handicapping him with acres where I would take him. So. Right. All right. So let's let's talk quickly here about Najee Harris and, you know, this whole situation, short and long term with the Steelers. I think I mentioned to Scott like in April, but I think even though Harris isn't on that like

Sequan Barkley Christian McCaffrey type of like generational apex of dynasty backs, I think he's like right below them, like a scosh below them. And then he goes first round, perfect spot to the Steelers. We've already seen the role. I mean, through two preseason games, he's played on 83% of the first team snaps. Granted, no big bin, but like 83%. That's Christian McCaffrey. Zeeke Elliott territories. I mean, he's going to play every down. But you mentioned, Wes,

before the show that you've liked what you've seen so far out of the Steelers' offensive line. And that's obviously been the big point of contention beyond Big Ben's declining talent. The offensive line has been the big point of contention. So what did you see, what have you seen so far to the line that's made you a little more promising as a release to Harris this year in the next couple years? Well, they come together. So with the Steelers, the offensive line, it was always, it was always misleading because they would be good in pass protection, but just, I mean, brutal blocking for the run. And that's the product of blocking for Ben Rathosberger,

because he's the best quarterback in the NFL at reading the blitz. You don't blitz him because you can't get to him because he'll find the open guy. He's just not to be messed with there. But what we've seen in the offseat or what we've seen during the preseason is the offensive line, meshing really fast. And I'm starting to wonder, is that so much with the offensive line? Or is that with the offensive line knowing the type of running back that they have behind it? Because we've seen guys like Joe Hague looking, I mean, just phenomenal.

And Kevin Dotson, they've got a, I mean, just, I'm just, I'm blown away. From all the games I've watched this preseason, the Steelers offensive line has looked the best run blocking. And, you know, the results aren't there for Naji Harris yet, but they're going to come. Trust me. As soon as they take the, you know, the kid gloves off and he's allowed to get dirty. And, I mean, just some of the moves he put on like Ohio State in the championship game, he was just sliding all through their tackles.

You know, he didn't go off. But, I mean, it took six or seven guys to finally bring him down. He's a lot quicker than you think when you look at his size. He's a phenomenal athlete. So I'm excited, man. I think the Steelers going to do really well. Of course, the Chase Claypool News just dropped the floor out on all of us when we all thought he was out for the year. Yeah.

Scary there. Well, y'all can't see me, obviously, but I've been nodding my head the entire time Wes was talking about Nadu Harris. Because I saw the same thing, man. I saw excellent, excellent footwork, excellent patience. And, you know, if this offensive line is meshing, like you're saying, and, you know, it's, you know, it's preseason. They're running vanilla concepts. You know, Harris, like you mentioned, is probably not even, you know, running at 60, 70 percent of his normal velocity. He's just trying to get those, like, you know, mental reps in, get the feel for it.

But, yeah, love. And we know Scott is, has, that's his other man crush. Yeah, I freaking love Noggi Harrison Dynasty. I know you do. I've got them in quite a quite a few spots. But yeah, Harris has been hard for redraft, I think, because that second round range is really tough this year between Harris, Gibson, Mixin, and then all the receivers in that range. But Scott, did it move again?

Listen to West Wax poetic about Harris in this line. Yeah, that's great. We actually had an interesting dynasty trade, you and me, Graham. I think pre-draft, you are be needy and you. I traded you Harris for Cid Lam, which they're probably neck and neck in ADP right now. It's kind of like a wash at this point right now. That is a, like I was saying, there's like a, there's like some leeway there with my dynasty ranks where, yeah, I have Harris at 12 and I have CD Lamb at five, but a trade one for one,

that's perfectly, that's definitely even in my eyes. Yeah, and I know you guys, you know, that's a team you and T. care co-managing. I know T.J. loves CD. And I only had Aaron Jones and basically like dust at RB2. And I'm a pretty deep at receiver at that team. So I kind of felt like I could move Lamb. I also have Jerry Judy, who, before we get to the mailbag, West, I want to talk to you about because this is something Scott and I've talked about. It's like, you know, Drew Locke is, man, he is an enigma. Let's put it at that. If let's play this out in our heads, if you're the Broncos right now, right you've got this unreal defense you just added two phenomenal cornerbacks one of free agency one in the

draft you've got von miller coming back healthy you've got vic fangio who's a phenomenal defensive mind one of the best defensive minds in NFL history you've got an up-and-coming offensive line a new back like wouldn't you want to play teddy bridgewater and just have him you know do his normal check down things just get the ball out distribute it and if that happens like that is golden for jerry of Judy because he's the type of guy who's going to be able to get off, you know, man-to-man coverage as fast as possible, get open, and Bridgewater can hit him. I am super excited about Judy this year, but I just feel like if they're going to force the Drew Locke issue again, I feel like we're going to get disappointed. So, yeah, just general thoughts on Judy and kind of where you're at

on like this whole quarterback situation here. If I could just chime in for a second. You may not. I was talking to a mutual who will not be named, but you could probably guess who it is, who is tasked with charting for PFF, how often a receiver got open on non-targeted routes. On targeted routes, Judy was actually below average at getting open, which I thought was surprising. On non-targeted routes, no one got open more often than Judy. So I asked this person, what do you think that means? And he's like, well, I think that means a few things.

One, maybe the balls lock were throwing on those targets. Maybe they were like lofty balls with not a lot of velocity or something. So it just gave a quarterback time to recover. But more than anything, it was that Drew Locke was a dummy who wasn't targeting him when he was wide the F open, which was often. Yeah, I guess it's that. There was another point to that too. but yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, so here, let's talk about Drew Locke. He averaged the eighth most air yards per game and the third highest air yards per attempt. This kid, he, like in the preseason,

and go look at the box scores for yourself. He, all he loves to do, he's trying to win that job with his arm. He's got, he's got a very strong arm. It's impressive. That throw he had the hammer was a freaking dime. That was a great throw. But I'm sorry, we don't play in the 1960s. You don't just, you don't only throw the ball 50 yards down the field and then just hand off the rest of the time. That was the point that was going to make.

It wasn't just that he was a dummy, which he certainly was. It was also blind. Like, how do you just not see Judy? Why the effort? Because Judy is a, he's a, he's a, he's a master. He's a master at his craft, and he's a route runner. You know, you look at the Alabama-wide receivers, and they're all, they have sharp route running because they've been coached.

Do you understand how much Alabama spends on their position coaches? I mean, they spend more on their position coaches than most teams do on their head coach. Yeah. Right? I mean, they bring in, like, NFL coaches to coach these kids as they're going through their, their collegiate career. He's already been coached by the best. He knows what to do. You don't have to coach him.

He's already on the field doing everything he needs to do to succeed, except he's got a quarterback that will only target him if he runs 30 yards down the field. That's a problem because he's doing the little things. He's saying, get me the ball on this, so it opens me up on this. But that's not what Drew Locke does. So I agree, Graham, you have to start Bridgewater. There's just no way around it. because Bridgewater is that kind of quarterback.

He's a game manager, yes, very good against cover one. And we'll say that one of the top five guys. He's not the same quarterback that he was when he was at Minnesota. Man, I was excited about him when he was at Minnesota before he tore up his knee or almost had his knee amputated from that horrific injury. But it's just disgusting. If they get Cortland Sutton back, I just don't see how they can keep lock on the field. They've got to take him off.

There's just no way. Because he does these things where it's like he'll make that throw to, you know, like we saw in the preseason game against, you know, he'll drop that gorgeous diamond there to Hamware. And it's just like the little things that he's not picking up on is what, you know, I think that staff, you know, them taking, you know, them taking Sartan over fields, I think is going to come back to haunt them. But that being said, I think the reason they got Bridgewater is because, you know, he is what he is at this point. You know, he's a ball distributor. He's going to throw to the open man. And that's exactly what this Broncos offense needs. They need a guy who can, you know,

not force it when it's not necessary. They don't need a gunslinger. They need somebody who can come out and just distribute the ball 28, 35 times a game. And that's Birchwater. And that's kind of what we need for Judy. Look at the quarterbacks that are going to be available, though. They're going to, Aaron Rogers, Deshawn Watson. I mean, plus you've got, you got Spencer Rattler, Sam Howell.

I mean, you've got, you've got like four elite quarterbacks. And, you know, I don't know how many, I know Detroit's going to be after. one. But, you know, the Broncos are, they're setting themselves themselves up nicely. And after Samuel, the way he played, man, I don't know. I'm sorry, Certainne. He was, he was, he was one of the best games. Yeah, he's an awesome player. That defense is just nasty. Oh, it's on in the, the fact they got four or two is just, I still. I still. Oh, well, plus they got Ronald Darby from Washington, who, who really played well last year, in a similar scheme, not as exotic, but still how to really, how to break out year there.

And then obviously Washington didn't want to pay him when they were able to bring in William Jackson. Yeah. Is, um, is Darby going to play the slot? Yeah, it sounds like he's going to play the slot. But of course they've, yeah, I mean, just ridiculous. And we're not, we haven't even, we haven't even brought up the, the top slot cornerback in the NFL on their team.

Shoot, I'm looking it up. Forget his name. Bryce Callahan? Yeah, Bryce Callahan. He's the elite slot war in the NFL. I remember you're writing him up last year. Yeah. The elite guy, the guy that just ridiculous.

This team is freaking. I mean, their defense is just so loaded. I mean, they're so loaded. So that's why I'm crossing my fingers that we get Bridgewater, and they just kind of let him, you know, be the checkdown guy and get the ball out. But, yeah, if that happens, I think it makes sense to be all in on Judy. I mean, they'll slide into the playoffs. And that'll be enough to keep.

Fangio's job for next year. I guess that was kind of my point about the field Certan thing, right? Is like this team is ready to win now. I mean, they are ready to go. You're not going to be picking that early again in 2022. You're just not. Like, they are massively hedging their bets that they're, are putting their bets on that they're going to get Rogers or Watson or maybe another veteran will come available. But, yeah, man, I just hope we get Bridgewater for Judy. Or even like Marriota would be an improvement on both of those guys, you know? Rioda looked great in that game that car got hurt.

I think it was a Thursday night game. Yeah, I think it was. He looked really damn good at that game. All right. This has been great, man. We need to get the mailbag. We're already, like, pushing an hour here. So we'll transition over here.

We need to get some sort of, like, mailbag drop for some of these episodes. I don't know what we could do, but we'll try to figure it out for the next one. So let's start here from our Guy Trav at True North Fantasy Football. ball. Not a question, just a statement. When we put this out, he said, I was asking for some questions, and he said his pants moved a little, which I think, I think we can all agree with us. Is he taking what Scott's taken? I mean, we got to get sponsored. We got us get sponsored by this Tom Pat. I got a legit subscription just because we gave a shout out to raw milk on our last podcast. No way. He was like, yeah, yeah, I drink raw milk religiously, but it's

expensive, so I'm buying a cow for my nine children. That was awesome. And then I'm like, yeah, I drink it. It's supposedly healthier. And I noticed like I don't have as much of a negative reaction with that as pasteurized milk. And he like dropped a bunch of knowledge. So crazy. Yeah, maybe the thing we're referencing is I've been taking a supplement known as Toncat Ali and for weightlifting, supposedly boost testosterone or whatever. I said, yeah, it's been solid. the only thing I noticed is road rage and then something else that had everyone else laughing. If you're interested, Tongat Ali, I think it's called like the Malaysian Viagra or something, like as a one of its name.

But yeah, I don't know. It helped in the gym a little bit. Two bars sponsored by raw milk in Tongat Ali. That's what we need. That's what we need right there. that's wait so real quick Scott I got to ask you so this you're going to start buying braw milk from this dude is that is that what the setup is he's in california okay okay i didn't know if he was a texas guy okay i was curious yeah so yeah thanks draft i appreciate

appreciate the comment um on a on a better yeah on a bigger and better things though um we got a question from blake on twitter um west he asked about your favorite late round tight-in and running back. Let's go through tight ends first. So who's your favorite late rounds tied in this year for redraft? Well, I know it's a guy. Scott loves. We both have a man crush on him. He's following some coaches over from the Rams. And that's Gerald Everett with Seattle.

I think he's going to end the year as a top 10 tight end at least. And I'm sure Scott's got some sexy stats to throw at us. Yeah. So one of the things I do every year that no one reads, but it's like one of the most important pieces of information I gather just for myself. And that's my post draft press review. So I've seen a lot of comments on Twitter like, I'm really,

I'm pretty sure that Ron Dale Moore is going to be the starter guys. And it's like, yeah, Cliff Kingsbury literally told us he was going to start from day one in his post draft press conference. He said he was going to feature him, make sure he gets the ball in his hands as often as pot like, we knew that already. And one of the things like that was Seattle's post-draft presser where they said, no, no, no, Gerald Everett's are a number three receiver. That's why we got him. We need a number three receiver in Waldron's offense, and that's going to be Everett. So he was a guy, you know, in baseball,

you know, draft every single time. I question his upside, but I feel like he's a lot to finish as a low-end tight end one. He's being drafted as a low-end titan two. Yeah. Yeah, I question his upside too, obviously because Metcalf and Lockett are going to get, you know, 45, 50, 55% of the targets there. So on a weekly basis, I think he's going to be pretty volatile. But for some like suit for some like tight-end premium leagues and dynasty, I've been trying to sniff around and buy some ever because it does feel like the market's like way below what his floor could be. And Shane Waldron, man, he was the tight-ins coach when the Rams drafted him.

I mean, this is now his fifth year of coaching effort. He's going to know exactly how to use them in this offense. So I'm with you guys there. Blake also asked who our favorite late-round running backs are. Scott, you want to take this one first? Yeah, none of the above. I go RB to start. Not fail for a reason.

Avoid that mess. Graham, you know, he hyped up wide receivers a little bit in round two. No, I'm going RB to start, so I don't have to answer that question. I just can't get away from Ridley or Hopkins in the second round. I just fucking, I mean, and Waller, too. I don't want Waller in the second. I don't even really like Hopkins in the second. I don't have a good reason to be down on him, but just...

I feel like he's... He's a... He's a... Go ahead. No, go ahead. Please, Wes. The only reason I'm not on Hopkins is I don't play a lot of redrafts. I usually stick with Dynasty.

And, you know, and he's pushing 30. You know, if he fell enough, I would definitely snag him up. But I'm not going to reach... I'm not going to, you know, go after him early in the second or anything like that. If he dropped to the third, for sure, I'd scoop him up. You know what part of it is for me? There was a great article last year from all the NFL GM speaking anonymously for the athletic. And after that Hopkins trade, which was, you know, God awful, one of the one of these, you know, it was ahead of a front office or it was a head of the scouting department said he thinks Hopkins is losing a step.

And he thinks, you know, he really like the windows closing on him. He has maybe a year where he's still. an elite receiver. And I mean, he was great last year. So maybe that's not something to worry about. But have you noticed anything like that, Wes? Then again, maybe it was Bill O'Brien who gave that quote. So who knows?

Probably was. Yeah, yeah. Which, I mean, that guy was run out of the league really quickly after making those moves. Yeah. Okay, so as far as like my late round running backs, I'll throw five guys at you. One guy, Ramadre Stevenson, perfect scheme fit. But, you know, basically in my eyes, the only guy that is in whose way is Damien Harris, who I love as well.

You know, obviously, I prefer the New England running backs with Mack Jones at quarterback. Another guy that I like late round is Gus Edwards with Baltimore. Let's not forget that Baltimore, they were, you know, they've led the NFL and rushing attempts, I mean, by a wide margin the past two years. I think J.K. Dobbins is going to have a breakout year. But I still think there's going to be plenty of leftover for Edward Salvon-Ockmed. I mean, obviously, they're going to be doing some type of rotation there. I think he looked really good in the preseason.

Obviously, it's preseason. I'm not going to start taking Scott's medication and get excited about that. But another guy that I like is, shoot, I just saw his name. Oh, Dorell Williams with KC. Yeah. I love that. He's in the right situation. And, you know, throwing a late guard at him is definitely worth it. And, you know, another guy that looks like he's possibly going to start. I don't love him.

And, you know, I know, I can get you guys excited. But Philip Lindsay, I mean, if he gets enough volume, he might give us some late round stuff, you know. He's looking like the RV1A there. Yeah. Yeah. So it's worth it at his ADP, which is, you know, outside the top, what, 90 running, or 90 players. So it's not, it's not, you know, really late round, but it's pretty good for a starting running back, considering the other guys you're going to be drafted him around.

Yeah, poor went out for the people who were taking David Johnson in the ninth round of best ball drafts in May. Poor, poor went out for those guys. They're about to get cucked. One guy went out of this list is Damien Williams. Toree Cohen is not right, guys. his ACL recovery has taken him some time. I know Damien Williams hasn't played in 18 months, but I think at worst, he's the passing down back,

you know, to kind of change up to David Montgomery. If Montgomery gets hurt, we've seen Damien Williams in a future role do very well. So I think Dame is the one guy I've been adding in a ton of leagues in, like, the last round just to kind of have an upside shot. He's kind of the guy I'm taking late rounds, too, to not take a defense or a kicker. some of my seasonal leagues. Shout out to one of the guys in our DFE league. The siege tweeted out that, I'll pull it up, I'll pull it up.

Hot take, Damien Williams outscores David Montgomery in fantasy. Wait, sorry. Sorry, no. The only way that happens if Montgomery literally like falls apart. Yeah. That's such a siege take. But yeah, I don't know. I'm not the right guy to give that take to because I love it.

love me some David Montgomery. I think there's a chance he just go back to him being a full-on bell cow because he was awesome at that last year and then Damon Williams is just dust. Obviously what you said, you know, it could be a committee. He could use him in the Trey Cohen role. I think Cohen's got, he needs to switch to slot receiver. Give that team another option at receiver. I don't think he's, his body is built.

We have inside information that Alan Robinson is going to be in the slot a lot this year, which is awesome for fantasy. Awesome. Yeah. Just move Cohen around. They're already doing it, basically. So just, I don't think he can handle running between the tackles and stuff. I know they like to give it to him an outside zone, but it doesn't matter to me.

It's a one-cut scheme, and he's taking a lot of those outside zone cuts to the inside. He just, his body's not built for that. Right, right. Yeah. And now, you know, for a player that relies on those cuts, relies on that explosiveness and the fact that he's not even close to 100% It's definitely scary. Yeah. I mean, just a phenomenal athlete.

I mean, he needs to be on the field. You know, so there's plenty of openings at wide receiver there in Chicago. Yeah. All right. So another question here from Luke on Twitter. Shout out to Luke Hoover. I think he's been following Scott for a long time. So appreciate that, man.

What rookie wide receiver is going to finish as the number two behind Jemar Chase this year? And then he follows it up. And why is it Terrence Marshall Jr.? Well, this isn't really the right group, again, to be dropping that because, you know, we love Jamar. I mean, I don't care. Jamar Chase is going to do well in the NFL. And then you got Elijah Moore to deal with. And then I'm not somebody that you want to really challenge about him on Ross St. Brown.

This kid is, he puts in more work than anybody, any rookie. I'll tell you that. So it's going to be tough. I do love me some Terrace Marshall. I think he'll have a good year. But man, and then we're not even talking about guys like Diami Brown. Another guy we'll talk about later. Haven't even mentioned Jalen Waddle.

I mean, this is a stacked class, you know, not quite as stacked as last year. Cervantes Smith, Ron Dale Moore. Yeah, I mean, come on. This is a stacked freaking class. And Josh Palmer, he looks like he's going to have a significant early role. in in L.A. Yeah, so it's going to be tough. And then when Bateman comes back, I mean, it's good.

But, you know, of course, he's missing out on all of his rookie snaps. That's just devastating. Yeah, and especially, you know, the Ravens, we know how they want to play. I mean, they're going to throw it 450 times, you know, if everything's running well for them this year. So my concern with Marshall is not, it has nothing to do with the player because he, you know, should have been. first round talent. He would have been a first round pick if he didn't have all the injury concerns.

My concern is he sees the number four on the team in targets, like not even close. Like more Anderson and CMC are all pretty safe locks for 100 to 110 targets, give all all three of them full health. So I'm not even, go ahead. I'm sorry. No, I was just going to say that, you know, that's my main concern with Marshall is he just doesn't really have an avenue to predictable targets. Well, and then the way they went out and they got a they got a tight end. His name alludes me.

And then they drafted, Tommy Tremble. They drafted him. They also got the receiver from Arizona, Dan Arnold. And so it looks like they're going to try to get tight ends involved. I mean, whatever they can do to separate themselves from Ian Thomas is just great. But so it looks like they're going to, you know, and Trembl, he caught a touchdown in the preseason game. And that was always the thing. about him is, you know, just a phenomenal athlete, but he just, you know, didn't really put up the

results. But if he's going to, if he's, if it starts clicking for him and then Dan Arnold, I mean, he's, he's one of the pure, one of the best pure receiving tight ends outside of the, you know, the elite group. He's really talented as a receiver. So he just can't block worth of, worth a darn. So it looks like that Brady's trying to incorporate tight ends more. It's, but I mean, you know, Marshall's going to get his. I just, it may not be. this year. Trimble's a good blocker, right? Like he was, uh, wasn't that his calling card?

Yeah, yeah, no. Yeah, he, a great athlete. Yeah, he'll get right up in the, the trenches. No problem there. That's why he was drafted where he was drafted. Yeah. Um, okay, so let's switch over here. I had a question from, from Discord.

We popped this into our premium Discord, which you definitely want to be in for this year. Uh, got a question from Tiny who's like, I think maybe the most, uh, he's in the, he's in our Discord more than pretty much everybody. He said on BB 10s, 15 running backs are going in the top 24. So of that top 15 running backs going in the first two rounds, which running backs do you think have legit top three upside? Obviously not Christian McCaffrey. So let's start there.

Probably include Cook in that group. I mean, yeah, let's not include Cook. Or Camara. I mean. Yeah. Okay. So let's take those three guys out. You know what, frankly,

Let's take Henry out too. So like of those guys that aren't, you know, consensus top four, who do you think has, you know, top three upside? It's simple to me. I think Elliott is in that group. If Prescott's on the field, Elliot's going to be in that group. You know, we all want to think Barclay is. But, you know, let's even skip him because it's just too easy. I think, you know, where he was the RB1 just a couple of years ago.

So I'll say, I'll say Chuck. And then, you know, I'm going to skip Najee Harris. And I'm going to say Antonio Gibson. Yeah. Gibson, man, you know, we just, we're waiting to see it, wait and see that, you know, him get that third down role. We saw McKissick play a bunch of third downs in the first preseason game. By no means freaking out yet.

I want to see the next two games and see, you know, especially. Well, think about it. Yeah. Before he hurt his toe, I mean, look at his numbers at week 11. If his numbers continued, he would have led the NFL and, like, touchdowns were, and possibly rushing yards. I don't know if he would have got to 2000, but definitely touchdowns.

He would have been right there at the top. I mean, so we'd be talking about him as a top five guy. Yeah, Scott's made that point a bunch of times, and it's a great one that like right before that injury, I mean, he was starting to get more involved than passing game than he got hurt. And, you know, this is something,

this is kind of more of like a, you know, deeper discussion on last year. But like some teams, you know, guys like Justin Jefferson, they just stood out because like they're just dominant players. but like, you know, every, you know, everybody's different, you know, that COVID offseason, not getting the normal amount of meetings, not getting the normal amount of practice reps, we kind of saw it with these backs, like Dobbins, Gibson, these guys just didn't get the same reps that they're, you know, would normally get in a normal off season. So it makes sense that,

like, you know, we have a normal offseason here. We got normal OCAs, normal mini-cams, normal meetings, normal film review, all of that stuff to kind of get, you know, getting the flow of think. So I definitely buy, you know, that there's something there with Gibson and Dobbins, guys like that are going to be involved more in the passing game simply because they have the reps to do it. And in Gibson's case specifically, real quick, Washington knows that he's a great receiver, right? Like that was the, that's the thing. Like he was awesome at Memphis. They would move him all around the formation, try to find different ways to get him with the ball. We know what Gibson can do as a receiver. I think it makes sense that they went in the last year and said,

okay, let's install and see what he can do as a runner. And he answered all of their questions about it. So I'm just waiting to see it, man. I'm really hoping we see it a bit in the second third preseason game. But for right now, I still think he's firmly in that mix in territory. I don't know if we're going to see it in the preseason. I think it's one of those. Yeah, it's one of those things where the coaches like, you know, fans don't get too excited because we're not even going to, you know, come out with anything new. And I think that maybe they're going to keep that in their back pocket until week one. Right. Yeah, it makes sense.

Tiny also asked, who has the biggest bus potential out of the top 15 guys? And I'll start with this. I think it's Jonathan Taylor. You know, Scott has mentioned this and made a bunch of great points about, you know, the Colts. If they decline in their game scripts this year, it's going to hurt Taylor. You know, Wince is questionable for week one. Quentin Nelson's questionable for week one.

Eric Fisher is probably not going to play until week five or week six coming off that Achilles. You know, Taylor doesn't have a pathway. You know, kind of the same ounce that Echlor has, you know, or mixing even might have now. So, you know, I think, you know, where Taylor was being drafted, I mean, he was going ahead to Zieg for most of the summer until just recently. Taylor's definitely, you know, the market's definitely cooled off on Taylor some, but I still think he carries the most risk out of, like, the top 15 backs. right now. Yeah, I completely agree. And I don't think that even when Wince does get on the field,

he just doesn't throw to his running backs anywhere close to what Philip Rivers did. So, you know, that would probably be the best thing for Taylor is if Rivers came out of retirement. But it sounds like Wince is going to be back on the field. So yeah, I just, I never, I never got into the Taylor hype. I was always bigger. Actually, you know, not not way ahead, but I was always a little bit bigger on Gibson and Dobbins than I was Taylor. But, you know, a guy that scares me a little bit is Joe Mixen. And he's not top 15, but he's a guy that it's not necessarily that I don't think he can do well.

It's just that I just, for one, I don't like him what he did to the girl in college. I never liked him very much. If he did that to my daughter, I would cripple him. but uh mixin is is a is a guy that that that you know he's coming off the foot injury which foot injuries scare me with running backs and um you know i i want to see him do it first but uh you know i'm not reaching for him as basically what i'm saying yeah scott and i were going back and forth on this a little bit last night it's like you know um let's say mixin gets the passing down role that we have the money to get for all these years you know the angles are still

going to, like, they're still going to struggle a bit. I mean, they're by far the fourth worst, you know, they're the worst team in that division. You know, they got to play the Ravens, Steelers and Brown six times a year. I mean, it's, it's a tough, tough division for them to really have good game scripts. And I think that's the one thing in Gibson's back pocket is like Washington, Washington is going to be awesome. Like, this defense is going to be awesome. So Gibson should look at the receiving group. Yeah. With, with Samuel and, and Brown now helping. And then, of course our guy Logan Thomas. I know he's not I know you don't like him that much. Graham, but yeah. And then Logan Thomas. I mean, that's that's a talented offense.

Yeah, for sure. It's not that I don't like Logan Thomas. It's just like I don't see. You want to see more production, more consistent production. Yeah. You know, he was inefficient last year because Alex Smith was a ghost of himself at that point. So I don't really knock Thomas's efficiency against him. It's more just like, man, they're obsessed with Curtis Samuel. Ron Rivera tried to trade for him last year. I'm obsessed with Curtis Samuel. I think he's a perfect one, buddy. Yeah, man, he's a perfect fit for that offense too.

I just don't see the pathway to Thomas getting like, you know, 25% of the team's targets like, you know, Darren Waller. I don't think they want him to. I think they think he can do well with less targets. And if he can up his touchdown number, then, you know, we're going to see some similar numbers. Right. So I got one day we were doing a draft. was a Devy and I happened to look and I had a trade offer a guy wanted Sterling

Shepherd from me for Logan Thomas. I said, accept. It was like, okay. I didn't even have to think about that one, you know, the situation, the team. Yeah, that's a product click right there. Yeah. All right. So one more from Beard O6 on Twitter. He asks, what player is Wes most bullish on this season and why? Bullish. That's, you know, I don't want to, I don't want to take the easy route with, um, with, um, with, uh, Amon Ross St. Brown. I'm not even going to go rookie here. Um, let's see. If, uh, one guy that, that I just can't, I can't get enough of is, and I am going to go rookie. I changed my mind, uh, is, is Kyle Pitts because, because, and especially since we're, we're in the

dynasty, um, conversation here, um, I, I've seen, I've seen, I've seen Kyle Pitts just drop and drop and drop. I mean, look, look, people, we've never seen a guy like this at tight end coming to the league ever. It's never happened. The closest thing is like Kellyn Winslow, Jr. And he had nowhere near the ability that Kyle Pitts has. I mean, maybe Jeremy, what was his name, played at Miami? Chucky, Jeremy Shockey.

I mean, these are the types of guys that we've had come in that are supposed to be the next big thing. And they were good. They were good. They weren't like revolutionary type guys. And I have zero issue grabbing him in the third round of every dynasty draft that I do. And I'm going to look back and I'm going to say. So like right now you see Travis Kelsey at the end of the first round or even some people at the middle of the first round. And you're like, ooh, easy button.

And I'm popping him, you know, the biggest advantage in all of fantasy. And I love it, you know, I think it's a good way to approach it. I also think Darren Waller, another guy that you definitely just, you just click, easy click. That's how I feel about Kyle Pitts. I mean, they traded away the guy that was supposed to be their offense, basically, just because they knew what they had with Pitts. And I just, I'll do it in every single draft. And, you know, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

But I just feel like that even with all the hype surrounding him, I feel like it's still not strong enough. Yeah. Yeah. You know, I'm glad we got your thoughts on this because Pitts has been somebody we've asked everybody about this offseason on the pod. So, I mean, I'm with you. For dynasty purposes, I think Pitts is like shoe in, you know, tight in one already. But it's been harder for both Scott and I. I don't want to speak for Scott too much.

But like it's been harder for he and I to kind of get on board. for redraft this year purposes. But let's write out this with this final question here, because this kind of segues perfectly. From Vinny on Twitter, he asked on Fantasy Points draft live stream, we did a while back. Wes was talking about how he felt that this is the year of the tight end.

And I wonder if that's kind of what you meant with Pitts and Waller. Like, this is the year we finally get some sort of middle class with tight end. So, yeah, what did you mean? by this is like the year of the tight end. And do you think this is actually the year that the position comes around a little bit? I think there's a possibility that we could see at least five elite tight ends. And that, I mean, we've got to think that it's only been how many years now. And we've only had like one or two and three when Kittle was healthy.

And after that, I mean, it was basically nothing because, you know, Hawkinson and Goddard were young. Andrews, he would catch his touchdowns, but he just wasn't, he wasn't the volume hog that we want. But, you know, so you throw in pits there who's, you know, we've never seen a guy come in like this with so much talent. And that right there gives us four. Hawkinson is going to be the target number one in Detroit. He's going to eat. And it's going to be nasty. Now, the guy that could, that could be the, you know, the party pooper is Zacherts.

We talked about him yesterday on our meeting, Fantasy Points meeting, and we all want to see him get moved. We'd love to see him go to Buffalo because, heck, he could be another guy that could do well there, you know. So if he can get out of the way, Goddard's another guy that could step up. And, you know, if Baltimore, if they start passing the ball more, we could see Mark Andrews.

I'm not as big on Noah fan. I think Logan Thomas can do well. And then the dark horse, I mean, we could see Tonian come in And just, I mean, he was awesome last year. Efficiency-wise, I think he even gets a bigger role this year. So, I mean, that's a lot of guys. That's a lot of guys that you can look at for some really good numbers. And we haven't had that luxury in a long time.

Man, I love Robert Tonnan. Like, he is one guy. I think I've warmed up to him more than any player the last, like, maybe month and a half. I mean, because, yeah, you mentioned, sure, you know, the touch. touchdown regression is already baked into his ADP. I mean, there's no way he's going to have that type of scoring rate that he had last year. But, you know, what, it will begett. It'll beget more targets.

You know, Packers still have, like, up in the air, number two receiver, you know, you know, talk to me all you want about Randall Cobb. You know, he's at the back night. He's in the back nine of his career. He's going to get his targets with Rogers, but I don't think it's going to be in any sort of volume role. I think we're going to see Tonian, you know, I think we're going to see him continue to ascend.

And I think he's going to be a huge part of this offense, especially off their play action stuff is a vertical element up the seam. I think that's going to be huge for this offense. So, yeah, I'm with you on Tunian. I think he's kind of like, like you mentioned, I think he's that dark horse guy that's like, man, he is on the precipice of like not necessarily being the elite like Waller, Kittle, or Kelsey or even Pitts type. But I think he's like, man, I mean, you think he's like so solidly has top five in his range of outcomes back into top.

Yeah. If we can get nine tied ends that can be difference makers on a weekly basis, I mean, I can't, I don't even, it's been at least 20 years since that's happened and probably longer if it's ever happened. Yeah. Yeah. You know, it's the same debate we have every year. You know, a couple years ago, we all thought it was O.J. Howard and Evan Ingram and Hunter Henry were going to kind of be that middle class. And that didn't happen. Grant, Andrews played a big part of that.

But yeah, I think I think this year's is set up really nice, like between Thomas, Tunyon. I'm with you. I'm kind of out on fan. But Thomas and Tunyon can kind of be those guys. I like Higby too in the late rounds, or not late rounds, but like, you know, rounds eight through ten. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Higby.

I like Gisickey. I know everybody, not a lot of people do. But he's given us steady, steady increases in production across the board. He had a drop in snaps last year, still produced the counting stat increase. increases. I think if, you know, we see some, some injuries in the, the Dolphins receiving group, I think that, that he could, he could sneak in there. But, you know, I'm not as, I'm not as excited as I am those top nine. Right. Well, Wes, this has been great, man. We're about to push an hour and a half. This has been, been awesome. You know, I want to thank you, thank you for your time.

Thank you for expertise. And guys, like Wes's advanced matchups article that's going to be on the, the premium side for DFS, that it's like appointment reading. Do not set your DFS lineups without that. Frankly, don't even set your season long lineups without it. You need to get in on that every single week. Make sure you're reading it, absorbing it, coming back to it on Friday nights, Saturday nights, whenever you're trying to set your lineups, definitely get to it. But for Wes, for Scott, I'm Graham.

This has been an awesome episode of Two Bars. Scott and I will be back next week. Guys, good luck with your draft this weekend. Huge draft weekend coming up. Best of luck. Draft Elijah Moore everywhere. And we will see you next week. Welcome to Fantasy Points Radio.

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