Fantasy Football Daily - 6 MASSIVE Dynasty Fantasy Football Debates

Episode Date: July 31, 2024

Dynasty Points brings six dynasty debates for six players facing make-or-break seasons in both the AFC South and the NFC South. Trevor Lawrence, Chris Olave, Bryce Young, and many more face an uphill ...battle to restore their lost dynasty faith. Dynasty Playlist - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-kupTuz42SeHflK6fqOqKTxwqB2s46M6 Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ All our podcasts are here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ ADP Tool Dynasty Data Lab - https://dynastydatalab.com/ Where to find us: http://twitter.com/DynastyPts http://twitter.com/ElNostraThomas http://twitter.com/JakobSanderson http://twitter.com/RyanJ_Heath FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok- Http://TikTok.com/FantasyPts @BDGEFantasyFootball @BDGEDynastyFantasyFootball @fantasypros @Flockfantasy @FantasyStockExchange @EstablishTheRun Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:03 What? What are you shaking your head? You're welcome. Welcome to Dynasty Points. This week we have football for the first time this season on our televisions. And with that comes a shift in focus for us. We have given you sleepers, bus, breakouts, best and worst draft picks. Every thumbnail clickbaity topic people have wanted this dynasty off season.
Starting point is 00:00:38 But now. Over the next four weeks, we will cover important dynasty topics from every division in each conference to on each show. So I'm excited to do that. Before we move on, we only have 34.5% of our watch hours coming from subscribers. It helps us out a ton. If you can just hit that subscribe button, help us feed our families so we can continue to put out the best content we can. It also helps us know exactly what kind of content you are all looking for. So hit that subscribe button if you have not already.
Starting point is 00:01:22 I, of course, am your host with the most time on his hands. I am Thomas Tipple. You can find me at L. Nostra Thomas. My fun fact today is that with this being now, the sixth season, I believe, of the Home League, as the five-time defending division champion in my division in the home league. I was waiting for the division to come up. I was like, what? I was like, are we spreading misinformation online?
Starting point is 00:01:51 My only remaining player from the startup draft that year is still Lamar Jackson. He is the only player remaining roster. Wow. Well, I had a different fun fact, but since Tom brought up the home league, I guess as good a time as any to just make my fun fact that I'm the one-time defending champion of the actual league. Division or actual? Yeah. Actual full league.
Starting point is 00:02:19 Hold on. And beat Tom in the finals. That would be Tom's second trip to the finals and I'm one of the finals. So let's not get it mistaken. There is, I believe, let's see, four or five months until I become two-time defending champion of the Frozen Tundra Dynasty League. So that's the other fun fact. Well, I am Ryan Heath at Ryan J underscore Heath. I'm not in these guys home league, so I can't give you any fun facts about that.
Starting point is 00:02:46 I'm sure both of them are lying in some way. I imagine there's some sort of like collusion to control this narrative between the two of them about how they're dominating their home league. But my fun fact is that I'm bringing back the Seltzer-based fun facts because those were a big hit for previously. I have made a change. I am no longer drinking the cherry seltzer. I have moved on to vigor and better things. I have the lemon sorbet flavored seltzer now. Okay. That's what's going to keep my voice fresh throughout this podcast. So that's the best I could come up with. Poor Ryan, between writing articles for the new ass. Sponsor me. Between writing articles for the new ass getting debuted and multiple podcasts.
Starting point is 00:03:37 today you are just we're putting you to work are these alcoholic seltzers or are these non-alcoholic salters non-alcoholic seltzers only i yeah i wouldn't i would never partake in an alcoholic salsa i don't even know what those are this is an alcoholic beer right here this is a heribou genuine brewed with pure spring water of british columbia um this is a nice green label you can get a six pack of these for seven ninety nine at your local BC liquor store. Anything's possible in this economy when you buy local products. Oh, my God.
Starting point is 00:04:14 All right. So obviously with training camp. Is that like $4. USD 799 Canadian? That's probably about $6 USD there, Mr. Canada hater. But yeah, it's basically buck a beer. This is a good value product right here, the Caribou genuine logger. Unbelievable.
Starting point is 00:04:34 With obviously training. Camp News every day a new player is the new favorite because he caught a pass and an hour later he's now the most hated because he dropped the pass. You know, Quentin Johnson still can't play football. You know, James and Williams is all of a sudden due for a breakout because he caught one ball at half speed. This is just the type of season where you can really get lost down narrative street. this is it.
Starting point is 00:05:08 What we did today is we're bringing back do we care, which is training camp news that is actionable, that we actually give a shit about for dynasty with real dynasty
Starting point is 00:05:25 implications. I want to start it off today with this from Joe Goodberry. He tweeted, I expect a 50-50 split with a chance for Chase Brown to win the thing, meaning the job in Cincinnati. Moss is here for Passpro.
Starting point is 00:05:43 Brown has done everything they've asked of him from last year to this year. He is at least Jalen Warren, which this is somebody who at R.B. 30. He might not be aware. Get ready to learn yards after contact for attempt there, buddy, before we start comparing people to Jalen Warren. I don't know if we saw it.
Starting point is 00:06:03 I've already derailing the show at minute six here, but I don't know if any. anyone saw the my personal Madden ratings of the top 15 running backs. The comment people thought that raking Jailen Warren is the eighth best running back in the NFL was pretty ludicrous. I got more negative feedback for that than my political fakes. Pretty, pretty extreme. But I think this is a good signal for, I mean, I have been on the Chase Brown wagon, the entire offseason.
Starting point is 00:06:34 Because we hammer home on this show all the time. If they're cheap, why not? There's zero cost to acquire in startups. This is not a player that's going anywhere near you being need to be afraid if he is ass. But we're talking about an opportunity to get very substantial touches and what should be a very good offense. I mean, I'm all for it. Tom, close your ears for one second, okay?
Starting point is 00:07:02 Okay. I mean, I've been with you on this big time. Yeah, okay. There we go. Oh, my God. 19% best ball exposure to Chase Brown, maybe. Zero percent, Zach Moss. What is July news cycles if you can't prematurely victory lap your best ball exposures?
Starting point is 00:07:22 It's a responsible thing to do, but I'm going to do it anyway. It is kind of interesting. We'll see if this manifest with Chase Brown, but I don't recall four or five years ago. teams letting these year one dud running backs actually elevate into roles the way that they seem willing to now. Like Zemir White is a good example of a guy who did literally nothing, year one, then did mostly nothing for half the season, and then, you know, gets this big opportunity
Starting point is 00:07:52 and it looks like he's going to have a chance to be the feature back. Ty Chandler is a guy who did literally nothing in year one. they entrusted him with a role towards last year. He's probably going to have some sort of role again this year. I'm trying to think of other examples. Surely there are some because we've been sort of seeing this trend. Jerome Ford, another guy who did literally nothing his first year, ends up having quite a solid role next year.
Starting point is 00:08:17 It seems like that pathway to maybe not like, hey, you're our starter, but at least you're our 1B, you know, is more of a legitimate thing happening right now in the NFL than it used to be. where previously at the running back position, we could just kind of write these guys off if they didn't really do anything in year one. At this point, it might be kind of a good buy to some of these rookie running backs this year
Starting point is 00:08:41 that get retshirted year one. You know, very different than a wide receiver, where wide receiver, we don't really see that. We never really saw that. We still don't really see that in terms of guys coming up from the abyss. But it seems like that's the trend at running back. I'm pretty excited about Chase Brown. Yeah, I mean, I told you guys,
Starting point is 00:09:00 in the show chat a couple nights ago that I'm bending the knee on Chase Brown. I was wrong. Kind of like Jacob just laid out, I feel like I was stuck kind of in that mindset from that really, I mean, really was correct up until maybe a year or two ago where it's like, yeah, very rarely do these day three running backs that don't make any real immediate impact in year one actually go on to have any sort of a role after that. like it used to be a pretty safe bet of like okay if there's a day three running back he's not really a lock at all for even a roster spot like in year two or year three and that was
Starting point is 00:09:41 kind of my thought with chase brown i'm like this is like a fantasy twitter fabrication like i get his explosive run rate in his yards after contact look really good but like does anybody in the like in an actual NFL decision maker room think this much of chase brown like he he was outside the top 120 and PFF pass block rate. I was like, this just has all the trappings of something that Twitter makes up in the summer and he shows up and is not even in consideration for the RB2 role. But yeah, I was completely wrong. This flips like all of the assumptions I'd kind of been making about this backfield.
Starting point is 00:10:22 And now I am there where, yeah, I'd rather take the chance on the year two player who has, like some interesting small sample efficiency stuff than a Zach Moss who had never even gone over I think 125 touches was the most he'd ever had in the season before last year. So there's not much sample or reason to think that Zach Moss is that really anywhere close to a workhorse or an entire season starter in this league. So yeah, give me all the Chase Brown. that is what's going to benefit on the other side of that. So, yeah, I'm in now, I guess, in all formats.
Starting point is 00:11:07 And again, there's just cheap, right? Hermes asked, do we worry that Bengals actual future RB that matters for Dynasty is currently in college? I mean, probably. But that doesn't matter for right now. And for right now, if you're a team that, you know, if you're somebody like me who doesn't like to draft running backs pre like end of seventh to, I don't know, the 12th round.
Starting point is 00:11:31 Jacob hammered this home. He said, you know, any RB on a 53, Chase Brown's not only that, but an opportunity to actually RB2 or flex for you from week one on is. And then, yeah, you can sell. You can get out when the time is right. Sure, you can just ride that wave. But I'm not really concerned about 2025 for RB 37 in July of 2024.
Starting point is 00:11:56 That makes sense? Yeah, you're getting that for free, right? I mean, his price, he's priced with one-year guys. I mean, and what's fairly priced in is that, you know, as much as we're doing the July 30th victory lap, it's very possible that Zach Moss still winds up having more fantasy points in this backfield this year. You're buying in that uncertainty right now.
Starting point is 00:12:15 And if Chase Brown does become the guy this year that's leading that committee, anything you get beyond 2024 is basically free in my view. And then the other guy that I missed out on, of course, that I forgot to mention that fits into this category of year one zero's who went was obviously the biggest one which is kairn williams um who i forgot another guy where you know that's you look at that rookie year and you go really this guy's in your plans and it turns out he was really really in their plans yeah i also i should just before we move on quickly i i'm realizing in real time that i gave a very detailed argument on the football guys dynasty show last night against jalen
Starting point is 00:12:55 right for kind of this exact reason where I was saying look how I mean how often do we go into a guy's rookie season saying okay he's unlikely to really see the field here unless there's an injury or it would be a very minor role maybe later in the season my argument was how often does a day three guy who has that type of rookie season ever turn out to be anything or even show up to camp the next year and have a role waiting for him but jailen right could I guess guess could very easily be the next one in this trend. So, yeah, just I guess I'm rescinding my argument that I gave not on this show, but I guess I just wanted to mention that.
Starting point is 00:13:37 We have another day three back that we're going to talk about now in the news because it just kind of fits a conversation from 32 beat riders. Despite the offensive struggles, rookie running back Dylan Labay has quickly made a strong impression. He started to get reps with the first team offense as a third down run. back and has also worked on special teams with the kick return or something we figured you'd have to do. The Raiders haven't run the ball much in these padless practices, obviously. But Labbe has looked smooth as a receiver.
Starting point is 00:14:07 Pierce described him as special last week and Getsy raved about him on Monday. Now, take away everything we know about Getsy and his opinions. Everything else seems at least pretty good. We can't forget that our own Alex Bacera did point out that in that he did almost hit white skill position player bingo in that interview it was gritty sneaky and fat sneaky fast he did not hit a gym rat student of the game or football like you so almost pierce almost gave us our first white skill position player bingo of the season he'll shout out our own alice basara for that but let's talk about it right i believe last week um last week it was
Starting point is 00:14:55 was Brian Ford that was talking when Alex and I were Alex filling in, by the way, tremendously for everyone who was sick or dying last week for this podcast. But look, we don't have them projected very highly at fantasy points right now because it's still kind of a long shot, third down back opportunity. White wasn't God awful catching the football last year. however there's actual opportunity here for someone like la bay and if we just finished talking about chase brown and you just mentioned right he may not be that explosive guy because he's the first guy in and last guy out type player but he's rb 65 talk about free these this is a prototype
Starting point is 00:15:47 anyone on the 52 type running back uh or 53 uh type running back that you should be popping onto your rosters. He was a free fourth round rookie pick. He was a waiver wire forever. I think it's only up for opportunity. And you're getting special teams. I mean, this is a coach's guy. And Pierce is like that type of dude
Starting point is 00:16:12 that loves these guys. Like you can already tell. This is something, this is a report that I'm actually taking stock in. I'm even more invested now. I'm not going out in trading. seconds for him, but. Please God, do that.
Starting point is 00:16:27 Yeah. But this is actual training camp news that I'm actually interested in for Dynasty. Yeah, I'm excited about Laobie. He's like the classic kind of old school form of the Jacob Peline trash running back guy where he's a guy that has an easy pathway to a role, right? Can get out on the field on third downs. He's already taking first team third down snaps ahead of Amir Abdullah. The other guys on this team is Zemir White, who barely played third downs at all last year.
Starting point is 00:17:00 Also, never really had a past catching profile in college. So playing that third down two-minute role would be not something we should really expect to see from Zemir White. And that's not really an Alexander Madison's profile either. Madison profiles really as an early down insurance policy to White, but not really a complimentary back to him in a way that Loudby, I think, could be. And then the exciting thing is if you're on the field, right, If we're on the field, that's half the battle. Now if Zimir White slips up, and we haven't seen him hold up over the course of the whole season, we don't know how that's going to turn out. If he gets hurt, if Lauby's already on the field, if he's already providing a role, if he's already getting into coaches' heads,
Starting point is 00:17:36 maybe his role winds up expanding instead of it just being all Madison or it just being all white. It'd be interesting to see, you know, not a super efficient runner in college, even at the University of New Hampshire, but a really, really next level receiving profile. All of the comps that you make on Dill and Loughby are all white dudes. It's like Rex Burkhead. It's like Danny Woodhead. It's all these random guys from these small schools, these receiving profiles.
Starting point is 00:18:05 But those guys have all had moments. And especially they've had moments when things going to happen by accident around them where they end up adding 10 carries that you didn't know they were going to get to their existing five, six receptions. I'm hoping for Laobie's sake that Minchu wins this. job because that's that's going to be a guy who is going to enjoy checking down i think to tell now i'll be quite a bit as of right now everything that you know we've seen or heard is that if devante adams says aOC is the guy he's the guy so we can take that for what we will
Starting point is 00:18:38 and aOC definitely can check it down so it'll be interesting by the way minchu opened camp as the favorite in betting markets to start week one, that's flipped. AOC is now minus 130 to be the week one starter. That's still very much the most 50-50 line, but AOC is currently a slight favorite. I wonder how much of that is like Adams and the Netflix documentary, right, the receivers documentary and just like how much he hated Garoppolo but has also come out and said that he likes AOC, like, and so that is completely flipped the stock. It's interesting, but you're right.
Starting point is 00:19:16 Neither of these quarterbacks are people that should, we should be fearing won't check down. Realistically. So he gets on the field, like you said, someone slips up. And great opportunity there for sure. Ryan, anything that? Yeah, my only addition coming live from New Hampshire is that Dylan Labby is quickly approaching, like, Adam Sandler status where in New Hampshire, we only have, like, a few famous people that are at all, like, related to the state in any way.
Starting point is 00:19:45 So whenever it happens, everyone kind of has to pretend to like them. So we all have to pretend to really like Adam Sandler movies. So I'm just seeing into my future where everybody has to pretend that they were Dylan Lauby fans from day one and always went and watched him at UNH. So yeah, sorry, no real football analysis. Last really quick shout out. We don't need to have a whole discussion point on it. But I'll shout out my guy, Will Shipley, also getting first team race. wraps today with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Starting point is 00:20:18 Well, Barclay's my favorite. Yeah, but still, he's getting it, he's getting a lot of work in here ahead of Gainwell, which is. I think they just know what Gainwell is, which is ass. Yeah, I mean, like, no one, look, no one's expecting him to be out of Saquant Barclay at any point. Let's not be crazy. But I think I'm in and be the number two, which sounds like he's been getting pretty
Starting point is 00:20:39 strong reviews. Yeah. Well, is a pretty surmountable obstacle there. good early start for Shible. I mean, wasn't Gainwell in the headlines like two days ago for getting first team reps and people were freaking out about it? Like, we're in training camp over reaction season, I would say. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:20:57 I don't know. Gamewell is the kind of guy who gets first team reps in training camp. Like when your day three rookie is getting first team reps in training camp, like that's, my rule of thumb is like when someone's like, oh, Mac Hollins is getting more first team reps in Keon Coleman. Like, I don't care. I don't care. Right?
Starting point is 00:21:14 This is kind of the same thing is like that there was the whole new story. Javon Baker is getting third team reps. Troy Franklin. 13. I was like, yeah, that's usually what happens is day three wide receivers in the first week of training camp. Don't start on the first team. Right. Thanks for keeping me posted on that.
Starting point is 00:21:29 When when eight three rookies do get first team reps, I do care about that. You want to you want to take notice of actually positive news. No news is one thing. Good news is another. bad news like Kendrae Miller sinks you. It's so jover for Kennedy Miller. spit out my drink at Kendra.
Starting point is 00:21:51 It's been like two years of people bullying me into liking, like people keep me like why do you hate Henry Miller? You have to like Kenry Miller. I feel like I've been like taking crazy pills. The guy reminds me of this year is Marshall Lloyd. So hopefully goes better for him for all of you guys. Henry Miller was like the Marshall
Starting point is 00:22:07 Lloyd of last year versus like everybody kept coming out of the woodwork like banging me over the head for a while. I don't like Kendry Miller. but yeah, we'll see what happens with him. I don't know. That's what I was just going to say. Yeah, is Dennis Allen coming out. He's like his family.
Starting point is 00:22:21 He doesn't like what options he has to vote for. He's just a miserable prick. Dennis Allen coming out and saying that A.T. Perry sucks makes me feel better about Kendrae Miller in like a weird way. He's like, all right. I think he's just angry. He's just taking out his feeling. I think A.D. Perry, like, did something to his family.
Starting point is 00:22:40 Like, he has taken so many operations. opportunities to just come out for no reason to be like, I hate A.T. Perry, this guy's garbage. Like, I don't understand what's happening with that. He's the worst at coaching football. And it's not even close. Look, we're going to take a quick break, our first one of the night. And when we come back, it's time. We have six dynasty debates that we are going to cut into this week. Very excited for that. Absolutely love that this time of the year is back. And the content can be, more actionable. We have real stuff happening. Very excited. Sit tight. Quick break. You dominate your home office and family leagues every year.
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Starting point is 00:23:59 Got a love when you don't botch the ad read. If you missed it, well, last time we're all here together, I'm pretty sure everyone on this program tried to give me a stroke. So if you missed it, here's a clip from that episode. Not talking bestball in this podcast. A few moments later. Bestball is best ball. Best ball.
Starting point is 00:24:21 Best ball. Best ball. Best ball pick. Best ball. As someone that makes the graphics for said program, it says dynasty points at the top. It doesn't say best ball points at the top. It's not even dynasty best ball takes. Like, I could live with a dynasty best ball take on the dynasty point show.
Starting point is 00:24:39 A few moments later. Best ball. Especially best ball. Like best ball. Like best ball. They're basketball 80. Best ball. Best ball. Look, I'm not going to survive.
Starting point is 00:24:51 Like, I'm so happy that the best ball. Like, we're out of it. Like, we're out of the woods almost. We're so close. VBM is like 51% full. We're right at the top. I need week one. I haven't gotten most of my volume in yet, man.
Starting point is 00:25:05 I've been waiting until August. I don't even start draftings yet. Yeah. I haven't even checked on those mouth breathing skull. If you guys want an is this best ball t-shirt, leave a comment after the video is uploaded so I can bring it to the brass and get you guys,
Starting point is 00:25:22 the dynasty is this best ball. T-shirt up on the Fantasy Point store. Just one of the many events that leads me to absolutely love the program we have today. But don't worry. We have dynasty takes. I promise.
Starting point is 00:25:37 I promise we have dynasty takes. I should do an episode on Dynasty basketball sometime. Not today. But like we, that's a good idea. It's a good idea. Okay, let's dive into this. We have the AFC South and the NFC South. Each one of us is going to give
Starting point is 00:25:55 two takes, one for each conference and division. And we're going to just have a nice conversation that hopefully doesn't make this run two hours and 25 minutes. So we are going to dive right in. Jacob, I want to start with your first, where would you like to start?
Starting point is 00:26:13 The AFC South or the NFC South? I'll start right at home with my Indianapolis Colts. And my take is that the Colts best receiver is priced, about 100 picks behind the Colts second best receiver. Josh Downs is, in my view, one of the most bizarrely disrespected rookie seasons that I can recall. And I don't really know why that's the case.
Starting point is 00:26:38 he finishes the year with a pretty respectable 1.60 yards per route run, not awesome off the charts, also very much not bad. It's substantially better than say Jackson Smith and Jigba, for instance. Then even more bullishly, winds up with a 93rd percentile Manon Press ranking for Matt Harmon's reception, really, really bullish there. And if you want to dig in even a little bit further, the first eight weeks of the same, season before Josh Downs ends up picking up back-to-back injuries in weeks nine and weeks 10 where things start to slow down after him after that for him first nine weeks of the season
Starting point is 00:27:18 Josh Downs actually has 1.79 yards per route run Michael Pittman has 1.66 yards per out run so as a rookie he was coming in immediately being the more productive receiver in that room on a per route basis all of the commentary out of camp is you know it's Pittman it's downs and we're battling it out for wide receiver three between Pierce and Mitchell. You know, everyone's assumption, and it might be the right assumption, is that Downs is locked into a slot only role and that it's Mitchell versus Pierce for all of the other snaps in the wide receiver two rule. I just don't know how many different wide receivers that we have seen over the years that start year one in a slot role and everybody wants to make the rosiest case
Starting point is 00:28:03 possible about how they start playing as an every down receiver, except for this guy. everybody's more than willing to throw Tyler Lockett out the window so we get JSN in two wide receiver sets. People are excited to throw Keenan Allen out the window already so that we get rookie Roman Dunes Day. Jaden Reed played like literally three snaps in two wide receiver sets when Christian Watson was healthy last year. Everybody's putting him directly into two wide receiver sets. I get it. You want to take bets on talented players getting more playing time. Makes sense to me. I just find a particularly odd that with downs, a guy who theoretically, based on Harmon's work, based on his open score,
Starting point is 00:28:38 is a guy who can get open against man coverage, against press man coverage, which is the main log jam to an NFL player being able to play outside, why it's seemingly impossible for him. I also would simply refer you to their tight end depth chart and say, on passing place, like, does this team really need to have more Kyle and Granson, Drew Ogletree, Moe, Aly Cox, snaps, or can we just pass out of 11 personnel 85% in time and make all the... He said four Colts tight ends without saying Jolani was.
Starting point is 00:29:11 Yeah, that's also a thing. I don't even know what tight end. Like, they have 17 of them. But this is part of the deal with the Colts tight ends. Like the Shane Stiking offense and like even the Colts pre-rec, like they don't actually use as much 12 personnel on passing plays as people think. I think it's because they have like five tight ends. People think that they are constantly passing out of 12.
Starting point is 00:29:31 they're not really past you at a 12 that often. They're like usually middle of the pack and pass rate of 12. They use a ton of 12 on run plays. And then they also just have a bunch of tight ends, none of whom ever play half the snaps. So I don't necessarily think we're going to see like top five rates of 12 personnel or anything in this office. I think they're going to pass predominantly out of 11.
Starting point is 00:29:51 So yeah, I think downs is if you're betting on Richardson to actually be a first round pick in Dynasty, he needs to also pass. He can't just run. It needs to be at least a average pass. And if he is that, then Downs is going to be in a really high-sporing offense as a really exciting year-two bat, has all the skills. I think he's one of the most mispriced players in all formats, but in this case, particularly in a dynasty format. Yeah, I agree on this one completely.
Starting point is 00:30:19 Just to add even more to the personnel discussion on their, so not during runs, but on their dropbacks, the Colts actually played 11 personnel at the third highest rate last year. So if you say to me, I don't know if Josh Downs can play outside. I would say I'm not even sure it matters because it seems like he was on the field plenty last year was pace for pace with Pittman pretty much before he got injured with them both on the field. Yeah, I understand like, I don't know if Josh Downs has the upside to be like a ever be like a top 12 fantasy wide receiver. I don't think I care about that at all at his price in any format right now.
Starting point is 00:30:59 particularly amazing later round best fall lie receiver right now too so yeah i'm all i'm totally with jacob on downs sorry i can't say best fall without laughing now i know i did good i didn't bring up i didn't mention my down to best ball exposure that whole a little bit but it's it's hot i wonder how much of it is because of his production off linebackers that kind of makes people feel weary, right? Like a lot of his production did come off of linebackers last year, but I think that's just a testament to Stuyken being a good
Starting point is 00:31:33 coordinator. I don't think it's necessarily something we should knock him on. I do fully agree. I have been team trade down from JSN to Downs Plus for a year now, and I'm going to continue to do that. I can see a road of very similar production for both
Starting point is 00:31:49 of them. So yeah, the original linebacker stuff, right? Like the one thing we do know is every time they pass out of 11, Downs is going to be in the slot 90% of the time. That's happening. So really all the question is, is like, for the other portion of passes, which as Ryan put, is not as high as people actually perceive it to be, is he playing Z or is it Mitchell or Pierce? And, you know, we'll see about that. But I think it's pretty marginal. And ultimately, I think most of that question gets answered by just how good is downs. Is he just a pretty nice player?
Starting point is 00:32:23 or does he elevate to a level where he's so good that it would just be kind of malpractice to take him off the field? Yeah, no, that's fair, absolutely fair. Just wanted to add a bit of a counter there. Well, let's keep in the AFC South here, Ryan. All right. So my take here is we're going to the Texans. And my take is that Tank Dell, especially in Dynasty right now,
Starting point is 00:32:50 we can keep it as a Dynasty take only. don't need to mention the other formats. He, as like a back end fifth rounder, I think that's about a round too cheap. So we mentioned, I believe we mentioned the adjusted, or excuse me, the average separation score stuff
Starting point is 00:33:09 at the beginning of this episode that we're working on at Fantasy Points right now. Spoiler alert, I guess. Tank Dell was the best wide receiver in the league last year by Fantasy Points' new, separation metric. And he had a better first downs per run than Jamar Chase did last year, did all this as a rookie. I also pulled up this other stat just because I was thinking about, CJ Stroud thinks that Tankdell is like a top three wide receiver of all time. He would, like,
Starting point is 00:33:42 what would want him on the field? I don't even remember who else he said, Megatron, maybe. I used to think this was a better take until Jordan Lov picked Romeo Dobbs. I can't. No, I can't. No, I can. Go with this. Who do you want to the play take? That's fair.
Starting point is 00:33:58 No, I hear you on that one. But anyway, last year, with Tank Dell in the lineup, CJ Stroud averaged about 21 fantasy points for game. With him out of the lineup, CJ Stroud averaged like 13 fantasy points per game, guys. Which a lot of that was kind of before he fully came on, is the CJ Stroud we know.
Starting point is 00:34:19 But I think that just speaks to how important. and C.J. Stroud probably feels he is to that offense, as well as he was genuinely very, very efficient as a rookie. He kind of won in every possible way. And for some reason, he's going multiple rounds later than Aniko Collins. Yeah, I don't know. Their ranges of outcomes are fairly similar this year. Like, maybe you knocked Dell a little bit because, like, he's small,
Starting point is 00:34:50 plus he got hurt or whatever. but it just doesn't really make sense to me. What is really the difference between like a Tank Dell and like a Devante Smith right now? Why are we dropping Smith a full round earlier in Dynasty Startup? He doesn't make sense to me. Yeah. Yeah, he won the Heism. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:35:07 I mean, this is another one of those I think where people are focusing too much on the who's going to play in two wide receiver sets question. Yeah. I've seen a lot of this Houston and like granted, Tom closed your ears, it's easier to handwave some of that stuff when it's like when you're just talking about best ball and you don't really need to worry about the consistency of production. But again, like in Dynasty, it's also something you can kind of hand-wave a little bit more where like you're betting on the talent profile. And if the talent profile is what it is, then one year of Stefan Diggs maybe pushing him out of two wide receiver sets is like a footnote in your considerations.
Starting point is 00:35:48 Totally agree with this. I mean, I just think all of the Texans wide receivers are our massive values in every format. You know, you look at how impressive what Strauss was able to do with Noel Brown last year. You look at the fact that they still have so much meat on the bone. Like they were a minus two, past right over expected team last year. And part of that is because they had these stretches of time where, you know, Nico was out. So it was Dell and a bunch of dudes. Dell's out.
Starting point is 00:36:18 It's Nico and a bunch of dudes. I think they even had a couple of games in there where Nico. and Dell were both out. And it was. Noah Brown. Unimaginable dad. Noah Brown, Robert Woods, whoever else. Like, you know, what Diggs gives them now is insurance where any one of those three guys
Starting point is 00:36:34 goes out, they can still run a totally functional high-end NFL passing attack. And while they're still there, they can distribute, you know, there's all these, look at like the San Francisco 49ers and, you know, how we're drafting those guys with, you know, in my view, a much lesser quarterback, certainly a team that's going to run the ball, I think, more than we expect Houston to. There's no reason why they can't make three guys work here if it's condensed, if it's designed well. I agree,
Starting point is 00:36:59 Dell is just a screaming value. Okay, I'm glad you're with me on all the Texans or values because every podcast I go on nowadays, the question is like, which Texans wide receiver is going to be the most valuable? Yeah, I'm overweight on all of them. It's become my bit to just pick a different one every time.
Starting point is 00:37:16 Like I just talked up Nico Collins on the show I did before this. So it. I was the odd man out. Yeah, I agree. In best ball, my most rap is actually Diggs, which is, you know, kind of crazy. But I'm well overweight all three. Yeah, the odd man out is Schultz.
Starting point is 00:37:32 I mean, like, that's, like, let's be realistic. That's what it is. If you're Schultz, truther, it's, buckle up, baby. Welcome, you better learn how to speak Brevin Jordan, Dalton Schultz. I just got Tankdale at 6-3 in this startup I'm doing it. I'm super ecstatic, 6-3, wide receiver 4.
Starting point is 00:37:50 Dangel is insane. Well, we couldn't do the AFC South if I didn't bring up Trevor Lawrence, right? Like, I just feel like this is just something that I have to do every single time. Here's what I was going to mute for the next like 20. Yeah, I was going to make Lawrence my pick, but Tom had already pulled up the show sheet. So here is my big take on Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence is now falling into the third round, which to me is too low. Trevor Lawrence should be a second round pick.
Starting point is 00:38:20 The problem with Trevor Lawrence is that he goes on absolute insanity runs and plays like dog shit the rest of the season. What I mean by this is I'm throwing out rookie year. We know Urban Meyer in that whole situation. He lit it up in the first game of his career and then was like, I'm packing in the rest of the year to save my life. Like that's what it felt like, whatever. Get Urban Meyer fired, felt like the play there.
Starting point is 00:38:50 But in 2022 from weeks 12 through 16 on 152 attempts, he had a 0.63 fantasy points per dropback, a 26.1 fantasy points per game. He was the third best quarterback in fantasy points per game between Alan Hertz and Lawrence. That's dope. However, in 2022, he did have the best finish of his career. The rest of the time, Trevor Lawrence was a middling QB2 outside of those games. with very limited upside. In 2023, he did it again.
Starting point is 00:39:20 Weeks 11 through 14, and these are so super similar. Like, we know what his upside actually is. 11 through 14, okay, on 149 attempts, he had a 0.64 fantasy points per drop back. Sounds pretty close. A 25.8 fantasy points per game. Pretty close.
Starting point is 00:39:40 And he was the second best quarterback in fantasy during this stretch, only behind Josh Allen. in points per game. We know what his upside case is. To me, his upside screams round two quarterback for me. His peak screams round one. So what's the problem? The problem is everything else surrounding Trevor Lawrence.
Starting point is 00:40:05 He has as much volatility as any non-scrambler in the league. now receivers drop some touchdown passes there's some variance it's like that all over the place it's just how it is he has never passed for more than 25 touchdowns in a season he has had turnover problems in two of his three years he is having a rough um camp so far whatever a lot of changes rookie receivers new receivers etc the problem is with Trevor Lawrence and where my take is what he would have to do to get back in a round one consideration, I think is over. I think it is over at this point for round one Lawrence. I think that he might be able to get back into mid-round two Lawrence, in which case
Starting point is 00:40:54 you're going to end up being very happy. The problem is from everything that we've seen from Lawrence right now, he is about to be, if this season he does it again, if he has a God-tier run in him and he underperforms the rest, he is going to be in Pylon quarterback purgatory a la what Jacob would say is Purdy, Gough, Tua, if, and you can say, Jacob, he's a good quarterback. If you hashtag watch the games, he's the elite armed talent, all of this. But if his production is a handful of upper tier games, and his upper tier games are really upper tier,
Starting point is 00:41:33 I made that point clear. but his middling tier games still are these low-end QB-2 at best to middling QB-2 with the limited rushing upside. My fear is that you're forever going to have QB purgatory with Trevor Lawrence
Starting point is 00:41:50 wishing that he actually fulfilled his promise as a prince that was promised a la John Snow. I want to just like, I mean, I'll always push back on everything with Lawrence. But the biggest thing that I think we can just objectively push back on is the classification of him as a pylon.
Starting point is 00:42:07 Like Trevor Lawrence's average rushing yards per season is higher than Herbert's career high and is higher than Burrough's career high. And they're both pilots. The majority of their of their dynasty life in the round one of startups, it's over 200 yards above Tua's career high in rushing yards and Goss career high in rushing yards. Like it's, but Burr-Lone's going to mistake Trevor Lawrence for being Anthony Richardson or Kyler Murray, but he's somewhere in between. Like he adds, he does add fantasy value on the ground in a way that those guys don't.
Starting point is 00:42:41 And, you know, you mentioned, of course, this is this is the big thing with Lawrence is Ben Baldwin does the adjusted EPA numbers for 2023, right? And look, I mean, I'm not really an EPA guy. I have a lot of issues with the stat. I think it's a very funny coincidence. You're anti-eague no matter who they start in San Francisco. Right now. Sorry? Said you're a very anti-EPA with.
Starting point is 00:43:03 party, but we're about to quote EPA. I was just going to, yeah, we're going to EPA. Okay, go ahead. Finish your. Yeah, well, I'm more, I'm a little more interested in this adjusted EPA, perhaps. Okay. Fake stats. Okay, but for the people who like EPA, right?
Starting point is 00:43:18 I mean, the people, the people that are anti-EPA already all love Lawrence. I don't need to convince them of anything. Yeah. Like the people who have, like, you know, murder EPA on their ticket sign that they're waving outside of the PFF offices in Cincinnati, like, they're, they're with me. this. But to the EPA lovers, you know, and Ben Baldwin is probably EPA lover in chief, he has an adjusted EPA stat that he started last year, which as a formula to even it out to try and isolate quarterback play from pass protection and then to isolate from drops, also from dropped
Starting point is 00:43:54 interceptions, to have even distribution of interceptions and fumble recoveries on interceptible passes or fumbles, and to minimize the noise of intercept from return. So when you do get intercepted, whether it's a touchdown or not. And of all of the top 32 quarterbacks, Lawrence found up having the largest positive differential. So effectively, by this metric, he was deemed to be the most unlucky of all quarterbacks. He ends up in this stat plus 0.26 EPA per play and adjusted EPA per play,
Starting point is 00:44:26 tied with Josh Allen for third, only behind Dak Prescott. and of course your boy Brock Purdy. I do think that his year last year, in terms of what he put on tape versus the stats, but it's just substantially better. And if you take away a little bit of that bad luck, that his progression looks a lot more linear from the horrible rookie year to the start
Starting point is 00:44:44 into this really strong finish to his year two. I also think their offense this year makes a lot more sense. I wish they had dumped Press Taylor. That is an egregious choice to continue his employment. But last year it felt like a lot of like, we got Calvin Ridley, And we got to call like 10. It's like basketball, right?
Starting point is 00:45:04 It's like, oh, we just got this new player transferred over to the team. And our offense looks kind of good, but we got to call 15 ISO is a game for this guy. So he can go shoot a 20-foot contested two. And that was what the Ridley looks felt like to me last year. Every Ridley play felt like we have to have a Ridley play play and not like it came in the flow of the offense. You know, Gabe Davis, obviously a worse player than him. But I think, you know, you get rid of Zay Jones, who's just to me kind of beyond cooked. and you get riddle, you felt like they're forcing it to.
Starting point is 00:45:33 And you now put in Gabe Davis as a role. Brian Thomas is a role. The offense, I think, hopefully flows in a more egalitarian way. I'm pretty excited for this. This is the make or break Lawrence here. Like I felt like last year was the maker break, Lamar year, DAC year. This is the maker break Lawrence year.
Starting point is 00:45:48 If he can't put it together where they're a winning team and he's leading a top 10 offense and he's a clear QB1 in fantasy, you know, it's time to retire the dumb speech, but this is the year for him. I know, I get it. And that's why I wanted to point him out tonight because the hope, again, I just don't think he's going to be the round one guy ever again, unless he goes out and puts up 5,050.
Starting point is 00:46:10 Are you talking about his rushing and what he can bring? Even a guy like Russ still has to put up 31, 35, 34, 40, 34 to hit these peak touchdowns for even a part-time scrambler, if you would. And this is a guy who, you know, hasn't seen. stayed healthy either while running. So that's also part of it. My main point is, to me, this is the year that if you're holding onto him or if you're still buying at his maximum tier price, like you said, this is the make or break type
Starting point is 00:46:42 season for him. And regardless of what he puts on tape or what his elite stretches are crazy. And I explicitly remember when Paul Patterson made a post on Twitter, he was like, uh, uh, some something about, you know, remember when people said Trevor Lawrence wasn't good. And I just remember quoting and saying, like, I hope we don't wait three weeks for the next time you get to say this. Like, that's just what the experience for Trevor Lawrence is, superior highs and really low lows.
Starting point is 00:47:15 I do see a world where he ends up in that Jared Gough to a quarterback purgatory. Because you mentioned like Herbert and those guys did it while being pylons. Like, they hit that upper level. But it's the same reason I'm still concerned about Stroud in the same way at 103 because you just need that pocket production. This is the make or break year for Lawrence 100%. I'm pro Lawrence this year, especially in his third round price. I have more of him now than I ever did before. I've been going receiver, Kyler Lawrence, multiple times this offseason.
Starting point is 00:47:50 I've loved it. I think he gets back. My prediction is that I think it's passing now. That's where I'm. I think, Tyler, hold on, I'm thinking,
Starting point is 00:47:59 Kyler gets back in around one this year. I've legitimately believed Kyler can be QB one this season. I legitimately believe this. I think Trevor Lawrence can get back into Kyler's current spot in that mid-two range. That's what I'm predicting. I'm about 28 touchdowns,
Starting point is 00:48:14 four or five on the ground, I think gets him there. If he doesn't do it, though, he's just to a goff, Purdy, DAC purgatory. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:48:23 I mean, the nice thing with his price is that this is the first time in his career that he's been priced closer to the Purdy to a goth group, especially when you just don't look at it linearly and you look at sort of distribution of capital perspective to the Borough Herbert group. Yeah. So like the, you know, even if he winds up, like, and that's his floor, right?
Starting point is 00:48:46 I mean, he just got a massive contract. He's not under any. There's no doubt of is Trevor Lawrence still an NFL starting quarterback in three years? That's, that's a barring some sort of catastrophic injury. So his worst case is being that pretty goff to, okay, this is a safety QB2 on my team thing. And he's not priced that much farther above it that if you're a believer in the upside. As I am, you know, I think this is the time to get it on the ground floor. But we'll see.
Starting point is 00:49:15 He's one of the players I'm most excited. This is the division I'm most excited to watch this year. Not just because my team plays in it. But like legitimately, it's four teams whose offense is better than its defense. it's got now, I think all four teams want to be fun. Like they desire to be fun. Like Jacksonville always plays at a pretty fast pace. They always pass at a reasonable rate.
Starting point is 00:49:37 You know, Indy with Stuyken is, in my opinion, one of the most interesting schematic offenses. Stroud, obviously, is a captivating player and the receivers that they have. And even the Titans, who didn't really talk about on the show, you know, whether they're good or not, I have no idea. But I think that they're committed to trying now. They're committed to trying around Levis. It would be fun to see what he can do.
Starting point is 00:49:58 Warm weather, a lot of indoor games. This will be a fun division to watch. Yeah. Can't wait to watch us. Well, talk that division next week. Ryan, anything out on the Lawrence thing? Are we good to go? No, I think we're good to go.
Starting point is 00:50:11 Yeah. All I was doing was comparing Pat Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence's rushing stats last year while you guys were taking control of the argument, as you should. Trevor Lawrence, five fewer rush attempts than Pat Mahomes last year. Moehmus had zero rushing touchdowns. I actually didn't know that. Yeah. Kind of random, but probably not going to happen again.
Starting point is 00:50:33 Probably more rushing production for Mahomes this year. And Mahomes was still only QB8, so that's the level Lawrence even has to get to. That's what I mean. Without the rushing, I mean, it is really grim. It just is what it is. It is just, it's real grim, Karen. All right, we're going to take a break. And we come back.
Starting point is 00:50:49 We've got the NFC South. Super stoked for this. And then we're going to do five for five. And we're going to get out of here before two hours. Sit tight. I mean, I got to keep promising people these less than two hours, even though, again, the poll did say three. I mean, we'll be two hours.
Starting point is 00:51:04 But the whole we're going to be out of here in an hour 10 was a lie and you knew it was a lie. Yeah. Well, to be fair, I've tried to go off of your time frame that you texted me. And we went over that in the news portion. And that was a lie. And I knew it was a lie. Yeah. That's why I warned Alex when he's like,
Starting point is 00:51:21 you guys need to do a quick news set that quick you can't do quick and this pod that's a word that you got to get out of your vocabulary all right we're not you know we're not uh hashtag minuteman here on this pod uh i said what i said all right jacob nc south let's hear what you got yeah this one is my opinion i think the most underpriced passing game in all formats but especially in dynasty format um even compared to some of those other more kind of pin the wheel on the wide receiver scattershot bets that I'm making in the format that won't be named. Here, I think it's very clear who you're betting on, which makes it more dynasty friendly,
Starting point is 00:52:03 and neither of them are priced up. And it's about the Carolina Panthers. Right now we have Deonti Johnson going at wide receiver 48 off the board. And then we have first round pick, Xavier Legat, going weirdly ahead of him, but at wide receiver 45, off the board and behind, you know, guys like Pearsall, behind plenty of other running backs, and it's generally been getable in the mid to late second in rookie drafts, really, really cheap in seasonal formats. Bryce Young, of course, is I think the main reason why people out on this.
Starting point is 00:52:36 I'm not necessarily super into Bryce Young, and Tom's going to talk more about him, so I won't get super into that as an individual, mostly because of the rushing component. But just from an NFL, can this guy play? and can he support fantasy wide receivers standpoint? Drew, the Dynasty B encounter has done a lot of work on building post-year-1 models versus rookie models. And quarterback was the rare position in which the prospect profile actually had more signal to year two and beyond than the year one production did, which was very much not the case at wide receiver, very much not the case of running back. But for some of these very highly drafted quarterbacks that are not very good,
Starting point is 00:53:19 good in year one, they actually have a pretty, sorry, not just highly drafted, but highly drafted and with in his model, the bulletproof prospect profile. And so, and however you want to phrase that, a strong production profile coming out of college and high draft capital, even off of a bad year one, tend to still be pretty successful at a high rate. You think of a guy like Tuatunga Vailoa. You think of Trevor Lawrence, who just talked about Jared Gough, Matthew Stafford. It's not that uncommon for these guys to completely dud out year one and recover. I think that it's reasonable that Bryce Young could do
Starting point is 00:53:52 that, especially given the really poor environment that he was in last year. They spent way too much on a bunch of offensive linemen, but I'm not here to manage the Carolina Panthers cap situation. I'm here to be hopeful that Bryce Young has a little bit more time to throw to his wide receivers. Deonti Johnson last year, people
Starting point is 00:54:08 think about the Adam Thielen sort of inferior goods role from last year where he was his dominant presence, at least over the first half of the season. He had a 21. point 5% targets per route run last year. Deonti Johnson, every single year of his career, except for his rookie year, has had a higher targets per out run than Adam Thielen had last year. So that's coming in as a little bit above a floor of already viable production that
Starting point is 00:54:32 Thelan showed you could have in the worst version of this offense. Then you bring in Legat, who is the first round wide receiver that everybody has already agreed completely sucks. And I'm just not that sure. If we're talking about a guy who's extremely athletic, 24% targets per hour and 3.15 yards per in the SEC, okay? I get it. Too late.
Starting point is 00:54:54 He produced too late. I understand that. But that's like kind of the only thing wrong with the profile. It's a big thing, but that's sort of the one glaring issue. But he has fantastic competition, right? He has fantastic production, fantastic athleticism. This isn't some, like people kind of treat him as though he's either this guy who literally ever produced like a cadarious tony or henry rugs or like you some random dude from a directional
Starting point is 00:55:19 illinois school like none of those things are the case he's not that unconventional prospect to be dinged this hard as a first round player with an easy path to routes so i'm really excited about the gat i'm excited about johnson i think he can work with bryce young and then you bring in de canales who look maybe this is like saying hit me on 18 after you've just gotten two twos but like two straight years. This guy has been on the offense that everyone in the fantasy community is completely left or dead and then resuscitated them. Now he comes into kind of that same situation in Carolina. I don't know if he's a complete miracle worker or not, but I'm pretty sure at the very least he's competent. He's a guy who's going to know how to put players into the situations that they need
Starting point is 00:56:01 to be to succeed. I'm pretty excited about this offense being not good, but viable. And I think that if it is, we're running through a guy in Legat, who's, of course, super young and has a ton of upside to his price. And Johnson, who's a guy that, if you told me this is like the 20th best passing offense in the league, I would say, I think Deonté Johnson's a top 20 wide receiver when he's healthy this year. And you're getting a massive discount on his price. Right.
Starting point is 00:56:25 Well, I'm just going to, I'll just roll this into the points that I want to make you. I agree that the weapons might be underpriced. I mean, I just saw Deonti Johnson go off the board in the ninth round in the first round in the the startup I mentioned earlier. Like they're still going just insanely cheap. He's in the late 10th right now. Yeah. So pretty insane.
Starting point is 00:56:47 And I do want to talk about Bryce Young. Now his price has continued to drop. Bryce Young is now a seventh round pick, QB 20 in ADP. Here's my problem with Bryce Young. It is possible in this world that he stinks again. Okay? It's possible.
Starting point is 00:57:06 He's already, he's already QB 20. next year the quarterback class is not expected to be great. What does that mean? Not a whole lot because some team is still going to overdraft the quarterback and they're still going to go too high in Superflex startups, even if they're bad. Unless you're Kenny Pickett bad, it just does happen.
Starting point is 00:57:24 Right after Bryce Young, you get Baker, Watson, Levis, Knicks, all those guys next year, if Bryce Young stinks could jump him in ADP. you mentioned Tua. Tua does have a cult following. That is just what it is. Because Tua over his first two years, QB 31, QB 26, he was QB 15, and he finally hit QB9 and still somehow found a way
Starting point is 00:57:52 to lose value. Don't know how that worked. But you're right, but even Baker Mayfield, right? Was QB10 last year? Had unbelievably Godmode Mike Evans doing a lot of that heavy lifting. And outside of that, He's just not been that great like you mentioned.
Starting point is 00:58:08 Bryce Young was QB23 on a truly horrendous team with only 11 touchdowns. We get it. We know the year. There is just a world to me where you'd never recoup your value again on Bryce Young. I just watched somebody trade future draft capital in this startup to move up to get Bryce Young in the sixth round. To me, that is a surefire way to hedge your bet on a higher level. likelihood of him losing value than him gaining enough value for that trade to work out for you. To me, he is a dangerous pick in a startup draft anywhere near in the, or sorry, not anywhere near,
Starting point is 00:58:50 but in the sixth round. If you're getting him in that seventh round, sure, you want to ride. He's just as likely to fail as somebody like Billy Jeans, in my opinion. There's just as high of an opportunity to fail. I don't know if the high end is even there for him, because we haven't seen it. Maybe this is just me being a, I haven't seen it guy yet.
Starting point is 00:59:10 But let's talk about what he would actually need to hit to really provide you that value gain necessary for Bryce Young to just pay off period because if we use Tua as the guide, this is a guy that, you know, 20 points per game is like we're praying a lot of the time. and he's still dumped on. So what it would actually take for Bryce Young
Starting point is 00:59:39 to get out of quarterback purgatory from the fourth, fifth, and sixth round? A hell of a lot. 24 points per game, 23, something insane. It would take multiple years for people to trust. I don't know if it ever does. I just think it would take an obscene amount of unreal production year over year
Starting point is 00:59:59 for him to get out of quarterback purgatory. I'm comfortable saying that Bryce Young will be stuck in quarterback purgatory forever. And to me, he is the highest end of a quarterback tier that I want the bottom end of in the Matthew Stafford's and the old guys for similar or better production moving forward. For me, Bryce Young is just quarterback purgatory bound that I want less and less of, just in my opinion. but I don't mind you saying the the weapons can definitely be undervalued at the same time as knowing a quarterback is likely stuck in purgatory in my opinion. Yeah, I mean, I'll kind of split the difference between you guys. So where I completely agree with Jacob is absolutely everything he said about Deonté Johnson. I can even sort of get there with Legate, sure.
Starting point is 01:00:53 Deonti Johnson averaged the most yards per catchable target between 10 and 19 yards downfield last year. but saw the lowest catchable target rate of any wide receiver in those intermediate areas. And Bryce Young was able to deliver the ball to Adam Thieland in those exact same areas of the field, with pretty much no issues at like a league average rate. So, yeah, even if Bryce Young doesn't take like the Dave Canales step forward, I still think Deonti Johnson is a mega value and it should is currently one of my highest roster. players in all formats. As for Young himself, when it comes to Canales, just to like read off some numbers and
Starting point is 01:01:40 give some context, we at fantasy points, we like to use this adjusted net yards per attempt stat. It's basically yards per attempt, but penalizes like Saxon interceptions. This is what Dave Canales has done for his QBs the last couple of years. Gino Smith in his career before Canales, average 4.65 adjusted net yards per attempt. 2022 with Canales, that bumped up to 6.54. Basically a 50% increase in its efficiency, right? Same thing with Baker Mayfield, the year before, 4.8 adjusted net yards for attempt with Canales last year, 6.47.
Starting point is 01:02:22 So Bryce Young was down at 3.68 last year. a 50% bump easily gets him into starting level quarterback, one of the top 25 quarterbacks in the league, clear starting level play. That is all you need out of Bryce Young for his receivers to get there at their prices this year. And that's amazing. As for Young himself, I would just challenge Thomas. Yes, I understand that there's kind of a stink around Bryce Young right now. it's hard to like imagine the scenario where he gains dynasty value. But I would point you to Bryce Young before Bryce Young, who had the biggest disaster of a rookie season ever, which was Jared Gough himself, right?
Starting point is 01:03:10 This was possibly the work, Goff went first overall, right? One of the worst rookie seasons we've seen from a first overall pick, like in the modern day, golf completely bounces back in year two, has a bit of a bumpy run. ride years later gets traded to the Lions, has a team kind of built around him. And oh, look, Jared Gough is what, eight years older than Bryce Young and is currently a fourth round startup pick. Now, I don't agree with that startup ADP, but Jared Gough has also never really provided that high end of week to week fantasy production, right? This is not a player anyone looks at and is like, oh, yeah, he totally has like a top five
Starting point is 01:03:51 fantasy quarterback type of ceiling with zero people who are drafting Jared Gap. golf in the fourth round of startups are thinking that. And I just think it could very easily get there with Bryce Young. Yeah, I mean, you can say, okay, he's in like the Purdy, uh, to a like purgatory or whatever with golf, but that's still a value gain. His ADP right now is I get that. I think seventh round. I think that's totally fine.
Starting point is 01:04:16 And that, I think that's where he is if he has even like a moderate success of the year this year. Like this was a highly touted prospect. people make jokes about him being short now, but that's kind of all there is in terms of the vibe shift. I don't think it's like this completely irreparable damage that Bryce Young has done to his brand. Look at what Trevor Lawrence did do his brand after year one.
Starting point is 01:04:41 And now he has risen much higher than that, again, without sustaining anywhere near top end production as you just laid out for more than a few games. So yeah, I'll let you have the floor. So here's my point. point. I'm not saying that he can't gain value, but gain value to what? Listen to how people talk about regularly on this program about that quarterback purgatory and what the value is. I would trade out for the older guy plus. I would trade for a receiver and a lower in Gino Smith plus. Give me,
Starting point is 01:05:12 give me whoever is cheaper, right? That's what these quarterbacks are to people. If that's his high end, man, and yeah, if Bryce Young maybe finds his career path, seven years later, he's going to be an absolute steel. But let's not pretend that Jared Goff also didn't have, you know, Cooper Cup, Robert Woods in a McVeigh offense when he broke out. And then now has Ben Johnson and it's just an absurd offense. And then let's not forget that Baker and Tampa had one of the goats future Hall of Famer, whether Scott Barrett wants to admit it or not,
Starting point is 01:05:47 Mike Evans. He had Chris Godwin. And then in Seattle, Canales was working with D.K. Metcamp. calf, Tyler Lockett, and other good offensive weapons already. This is not what we can say for Carolina. So it is easy to say he did it here and he did it here, but it's really not an apples to apples situation in Carolina. And again, if his ultimate upside is,
Starting point is 01:06:12 just give me whoever's cheaper, then if you're trading future first and things like that for Bryce Young now, give me whoever's cheaper. And to me, that's just what Bryce Young's outlook, looks like to me is give me whoever's cheaper. I agree with Tom for the most part on the Bryce Young point where if I want to bet on the Bryce Young bounce back, I would rather just do it through his weapons and that goes for all formats.
Starting point is 01:06:38 And that reason being just, you know, I do think there is a glass ceiling to how much you can accrue in value if you don't run at all. And he really doesn't run at all. You know, the guys that we're talking about him getting to, right? I mean, we're talking about bounce backs from a bad year as a quarterback. But I'm willing to take the like Herbert Burrow Stroud upside, mostly off the table at this point. I mean, maybe not, maybe that's a little bit unfair, but that should be like a 99th percentile outcome at this point. Where that 70th, 80th percentile outcome is, that is like the Tua, the Gough.
Starting point is 01:07:19 that is getting into that round four of startups, late round three of startups area. And I agree with Tom too that like if that's what Bryce becomes, I'm going to want to trade them then. So would I be happy investing now, getting a little bit of profit, trying to cash out on that profit later? Sure.
Starting point is 01:07:37 You know, I kind of did that with two. I bought a lot of two after year one and year two, believe it or not. And then I've sold most of that since, but I still have like a couple of us sitting around that I haven't even ever been. able to sell where I'm in leagues that aren't a big fan of his, you know, how much do I want to try and take a spectacle of that I'm going to sell later when it's one thing to move up three rounds
Starting point is 01:08:00 from the fifth to the second? It's another thing to move up three rounds from the seventh to the fourth. That's probably we're talking like a mid-second in value difference, an early second in value difference between those slots. And the opportunity cost is not just the risk. It's the opportunity cost to quarterback is huge. If you're taking Brice Young, where he goes. and he busts. A, you know, you're in potentially a really terrible spot to be in Superflex where you're left without a musical chair, you know, at the quarterback position. And you have to go and acquire a quarterback now without giving up one, which is very challenging.
Starting point is 01:08:35 And also, unlike a wide, like, if you take a swing on a young wide receiver in round seven, right? Let's say you take a, I don't think Brian Thomas maybe goes higher, but whoever, using it, Keon Coleman maybe. let's say you draft keung coleman in the seventh round keon coleman goes full qj you burnt the pick he's dust like that sucks you waste it a seventh round pick but it's pretty manageable in the sense of there's a lot of other wide receivers and running backs pull up off your bench to sub into that spot make it work with young not only do you have that value loss
Starting point is 01:09:07 with that seventh round slot but like that's your qb too you're starting him like if you think of like zach wilson right it was one thing to have the pain of losing the value of Zach Wilson if you took him coming off this rookie year. The other problem was you had to eat starting like 12 points per game every week in one of your quarterback spots, which is extremely debilitating to your ability to win fantasy football games this year. So that's, to me, the scariest part of Bryce Young is like,
Starting point is 01:09:35 if he sucks, not only is it a value loss, but like that's super rough for your football team. If you're taking Bryce Young and he's scoring like, if he's what he was last, year he scored like six points worse than Matthew Stafford is going to score. Gino Smith is going to score, right? It's not like if you take a flyer on Legat and he busts. It's really not that big of a deal.
Starting point is 01:09:54 It's a massive deal if Bryce Young is your QB2 and he's just unplayable for you. So I don't think that the risk is quite worth a reward on him in particular. And yet I am still kind of optimistic on having that bounce back year. I just have more efficient ways to do it that don't involve clicking his name. Yeah. And no, to be clear, I actually agree with you guys. I'm devil's advocating against Thomas's take. But yeah, I would much rather bet on like, even like just get a little bit cheaper,
Starting point is 01:10:21 get like the Will Levis or like the Mo Nix if you're trying to play in like I want to bet on the value accrual of a quarterback. Or yeah, more likely if I want to win games this year, then yeah, get me down to the Kirk Cousins to the Matt Stapher. I would always rather. Where you can get one of those guys and Cousins or Stafford. versus like, you know, if you're taking young in the seventh, like, do you want to come back and take another quarterback in the 10th? Because like now, now you've allocated a lot of draft picks, the quarterback, which is. I will say that if you're a savvy trader, right? And like Jacob mentioned, a player moving from the seventh round to like the fourth round,
Starting point is 01:11:02 there's opportunity there if you're a savvy and active trader in your leagues and you know your leagues and you can turn that value into, let's say whoever the hot fourth round wide receiver is like Brandon Ayuk, Roma Dunzei or Nico Collins is and just move off of them. If you are that guy, fantastic. Then buy in on Bryce and pray for that upside. But again, I just have a hard time seeing it for any of these guys. I'm just going back and listening to how I constantly hear these guys talked about and how they're played down constantly.
Starting point is 01:11:38 and then now Bryce Young's best case expectation is give me who's cheaper. So that's just where I have to come from on it. And I hope he does well because I have a lot of Carolina receivers. And I have a lot of Jonathan Brooks. And I need this offense to do well. But that's where we separate hope to like actually looking at what the realistic range of outcomes is for his future expectations. Brian Ford in the chat, by the way, I mean, I would J.J. McCarthy like millions of miles ahead of Bryce Young. I mean, I prefer McCarthy even to two and Purdy, so I certainly prefer him to Bryce Young.
Starting point is 01:12:16 Addison and Bryce, I don't really care about Jordan Addison, like at all. So probably neither on that one. But I would take Bryce. Definitely Pickens. Definitely Pickens. And then probably take Bryce over Watson. Yeah. Yeah, I would take Bryce over Addison because Bryce is cheaper.
Starting point is 01:12:34 And because take who's cheaper, that's who I'm. Well, if he's asking me, if he's asking me straight up, then I'll take Addison. If you're telling me he's more expensive, if I could get a third more. I don't want to roster those players in Dynasty. Yeah, me either. No, I definitely, definitely do not want to roster Jordan Addison either. I don't get the, I don't get the JJM hate from you in particular, Brian. I get it if you don't like him as a prospect.
Starting point is 01:12:59 I didn't, I was kind of neutral on him as a prospect. Like, there's some big time JJM haters. I'm not one of them. I'm also not in the Brett Whitefield, J.J.M. QB.1. group but like you are few are but now now that he's in minnesota if you're if you're brian for and i'm pretty sure you know forgive me if i'm wrong but i'm pretty sure kind of with me brian for the most part on like the anti purdy real life takes and some of these other mcshanee quarterbacks like that's your i don't think you are neutral brian if you have bryce out of him
Starting point is 01:13:28 i think he sucks ass um like you know if you're if you're kind of out on the if you're saying like oh i don't think purdy's all that good in real life like if you're that guy you're He was like, I think golf's a low rate, I think two is low. Then to me, that tells me you should be in on JJ McCarthy and Dynasty, right? Like, if you're looking at those spots and you're saying the situation is making some of these quarterbacks, then bet on the situation. Right. Yeah, I agree. He says, maybe I'm not neutral on Bryce.
Starting point is 01:13:57 Yeah, that's definitely possible as well, 100%. Ryan, your quick, well, not quick, can take as much time as you want, but your take on the NFC South. Yeah, this one will probably. be quick because I think I'm more like just asking questions than I am giving a take here. I'm just asking questions. Maybe a little bit inspired by the Tyler Algear discourse from today where Zach Robinson is saying like gives like if we're being real gives like the boilerplate answer of like I'm not Dennis Allen.
Starting point is 01:14:31 So I'm going to say a nice thing about the player on my team that I'm getting asked about and say, oh, you never know what happens. Like he could, football's a crazy game. Like he could get a lot more touches some games than you might know, right? And Twitter gets really upset. But that got me thinking just about Tyler Al Jir's Dynasty ADP. He's the RB 50 right now on the Dynasty Data Lab. How is this in any way a different bet than Zach Charbonnet, for example, RB37?
Starting point is 01:15:03 Or I would even argue than like a Blake Corum as RV30. Like, these are day two running backs that are behind what we think are pretty entrenched starters. They, I don't know that I have like a super strong talent take between the three of them. Maybe I lean Corum as the best player of those three, but it shouldn't be that strong. And I mean, Al Jir has some interesting indicators, right? So he had the third best success rate on man. gap runs last year. That was behind only Kyron Williams and Aaron Jones. Notably, the Rams last year kind of shifted from a more zone heavy scheme to more of those like Van Gap runs.
Starting point is 01:15:50 And they ran the third most of any team last year. Will Zach Robinson do the same? We don't necessarily know. I did like about five minutes of research before the show and couldn't find anything definitive really on how we actually plans to structure the run game. But there's a world here where Alger actually carves out kind of like a Zach Charbonnet or a Blake Corum type of role that people currently think those other two guys are locked into. And yeah, obviously what really matters for all of them is the contingent value in any format. So why is Algear so far below these guys just in terms of ADP? I'm just asking the question.
Starting point is 01:16:34 I think it's just because he's behind Bejohn Robinson is not going to give me up work. But look, we want to talk about valuable handcuffs. This is it. He's got to be one of the top ones. If you're a guy that doesn't like to handcuff your own ringback, right? If you're praying on Bejon's downfall, then Algiers is kind of one of the guys I want in this offense. He's a proven runner. He's a good football player, regardless if we have cursed his name for two years.
Starting point is 01:17:04 now, but very successful rookie year. And I think, like, Ray Davis is okay, good, but like Dobbins, Chuba, even Vidal. I mean, going, going ahead of them, some other questionable players like Ryan had laid out. I, I'm inclined to agree that if you're looking for, like, the high value handcuff, he is so ridiculously dirt cheap we should be buying. Yeah, I think, I mean, that's not a. I think he's one of the best handcuffs. I think he's one of the best handcuffs in fantasy.
Starting point is 01:17:38 Yeah. I think he's a reasonable enough player that he could have value on a second contract somewhere. I'm selling the Tyler Alger's standalone value stuff that I'm. No, that, yeah. I'm selling the shit out of that. Yeah. Like, I saw a hype nugget about him online today. You know, people are worried about, oh, does this change how we view Bejean?
Starting point is 01:18:02 Is he going to get 10? I do not think so. I think Bijon is like a very clear cut top three running back talent in this league. You're getting the staff. I mean, that's the argument for Kyran, right? Just people always say, oh, the Rams, they use one back. Now, that's the staff coming over to coach this offense in Atlanta. I'm pretty, like, I'm happy to be in on Alger as a cuff.
Starting point is 01:18:26 I don't think Bijan's coming off the field very frequently this year. I think the madness is ending with Arthur Smith. But the bright side is, like, can anyone name these? Atlanta R3, I actually can't. I don't know. No, I honestly don't know. Oh, no, I can't. Wow. That's a good one. I should know that by July 30th. We're going to break news live on the show. Atlanta Falcons running back the depth chart. Like, I don't even have a clue. Just with everybody saying, oh, Jace McClellan. Jace McClellan is the RBC. B. Oh, the rookie. Okay. Yeah. So, right. So this is a spot where like Bijon goes down. There's nothing stopping Tyler Algier for like 87% snap rate in very good offense, right?
Starting point is 01:19:12 You could argue his contingent value is basically right up there with Corum for best in the whole league. Yeah. And that's kind of my biggest point is maybe just because I don't care that much about quote unquote, like the standalone value when it comes to these guys. Never am I clicking Blake Corum's name or Zach Sharbonnet's name being like, oh, good, like, good thing, at least they're going to average like seven fantasy points per game on my bench or whatever until the starter gets hurt or something happens, right? Like, I'm not really thinking about the outcomes like between now and them being plugged in as a free square every week, right?
Starting point is 01:19:52 So I just don't care as much about that stuff. So, yeah, I'm just going to, if I'm picking through handcuffs or whatever, which as I was starting to. say that that's not like an archetype i am generally targeting on my dynasty teams but i i guess it can make sense in certain situations then yeah i algear is one i'd rather like have kind of chilling on my bench and maybe he turns into a lottery ticket that i can sell for a second round pick or whatever in october yeah i mean if if you know i really hope this isn't happening so excited to watch him this year but you know bejean robinson torn ACL and training camp. Tala Algear is immediately sellable for two and three, right? And a first in your
Starting point is 01:20:39 dumb sleep. Yeah, and more likely more valuable playing on your roster than that second will be. Right. Like, you're putting him in the lineup every week. Yeah. Every week. Where would you, where would you draft? I mean, I'll put it this way. And Tom, this, this actually has instructive value for Dynasty. So you're going to have to chill on this one. I agree. If Vijon Robinson went down today, you know, you knew he was gone for the whole season. Where would you draft Tyler Alger in a seasonal format. Like, I think he probably ends up kind of like similar. Yeah, like, I think he goes like behind like ETN and Pacheco,
Starting point is 01:21:10 but like kind of like ahead of cook and white, like that kind of realm. Yeah. Yeah, Pacheco was the comparison I was going to make. Yeah. Completely agree. Yeah. And if that's the case for an actual backup, this isn't a tied channel situation where if Jones went down like we're not putting
Starting point is 01:21:27 him there. This is a legitimate. We know we can handle the role. You've seen it. over at least a half a season. And we know we can be reasonably efficient. And we know they don't got anybody else. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:21:40 No, I completely agree. Phenomenal. I love this. I can't wait for next weeks. I'm already excited. I don't know what one we're doing next week, but I'm sure we'll figure that out as we carry on over the next four weeks. Getting ready to lead off for kickoff,
Starting point is 01:21:54 we are going to explain the in-season game and kind of lay out. This is our first full season here at fantasy points as the dynasty lead. show here. Don't go anywhere. Five for five is coming up after the break. The hottest game in Dynasty Fantasy Football. We're back right after this.
Starting point is 01:22:16 Where it is, Ryan Heath has a chance this week. Okay, Jacob, five for five. Let's have a hell of a ride out here. Yeah, man. Let's do it. All right.
Starting point is 01:22:28 So this week, all of them are active players. However, All of them have ADPs currently outside the top 200 in dinosaurs. Okay. He did. So before the show, Jacob says, don't worry, guys. This is going to be like the easiest.
Starting point is 01:22:43 No, this is going to be the easiest. I promise you, this will be the highest scoring five for five in show history. And I'm going to say that's for two reasons. One is that they're all active players. Two is that I kind of forgot that I was supposed to prepare one until pretty close to the show. So I didn't do all that many crazy clues. So that's probably maybe the second reason is bigger than the first reason. All right.
Starting point is 01:23:08 If anybody does not know how we play this game, the way that we play this game is there's five players. Each player has up to five clues. If Tom or Ryan gets it on the first clue, they get five points, second clue, four points, et cetera, et cetera, until the last clue is worth one point. Or Jacob changes the rules.
Starting point is 01:23:28 That rule remains consistent. But is inconsistent, is it the last player, whether I keep the points the same, doubled, tripled, is well, entirely dependent on their scoring. So that'll let you know later. If you want to play along in the chat, please do play along in the chat. But do not cheat. In this case, especially, do not be looking at an ADP source because we'll probably be using the ADP as part of the clues. And I've already said they're all outside the top 200. So everyone shut down your ADP source, shut down your Google.
Starting point is 01:24:00 And feel free to play along. All right. Let's roll. I got to shut it down. Yeah, I was going to say, it closed out of data lab. Yep. All right. Everybody closed out of data lab.
Starting point is 01:24:11 There we go. I have Twitter, everything. Everything closed down. Let's go. All right. First player. Chat on screen. You guys are going to guide me.
Starting point is 01:24:21 Okay. This player was a fifth round draft selection out of Auburn University. And for those remembering home, the rule is you can always get. every round. If you choose to forego a guess in a round and the other player does guess, you guaranteed getting the first guess in the next spring. A fifth round pick out of Auburn. I don't know if he went to Auburn, but I'll say Greg Dulcich. That is incorrect. Okay. I was just taking a random shot because if somebody were going to prop up somebody at random on the first one to meet
Starting point is 01:24:56 it was Greg Dulcich. I don't know if this counts. I can ring that one off instantly by the way, so I don't know if he counts as an active player but my brain is thinking like Wayne Galman, he might have been an earlier
Starting point is 01:25:12 pick though. Fourth round pick out of Clemson. All right, next round. Oh, okay. Right. Uh, okay. This player ran a 439 40 yard dash. A 439. And 40. Fast boy.
Starting point is 01:25:28 Fast boy. I'll take the low-hanging fruit. I'll take Anthony Schwartz. Incorrect. But, uh... Ryan, you let me down. I guess. Right school was fast.
Starting point is 01:25:38 Third round pick. Uh, all right. Okay. Damn, he was a third-round pick, hey? Oh, my God. Oh. I... Cleveland.
Starting point is 01:25:49 What are we doing? All right. Free guess here, or do you want to go first next to? next round. I'll go first next round. All right. Third clue. This player has led his NFL team in both yards and yards per row run in two consecutive seasons. Oh, wow. Okay. Damn.
Starting point is 01:26:09 Um, I have a fifth round pick too. Wow. Okay. Um, I, dude, I don't know. That's hard. No, he said there can be that many players outside. I know, but my, my brain is seasons leading their team in yards. My brain is like being twisted in so many directions. It's the Auburn thing that's messing with me. Yeah, same. I should just forget that honestly. You forget about Auburn if you want to.
Starting point is 01:26:35 All right, I'm giving you five seconds, Ryan, on your free gas. Then I'm opening it up to anybody. Five, four, three. DJ Chark. I don't know. Incorrect. T.J. Chark, second round pick out of LSU.
Starting point is 01:26:48 Okay. Okay. I'll take Sean. Darius Slayton. That is correct. Oh. Points. Damn.
Starting point is 01:26:57 I'm trusting the chat tonight. I'm not ashamed about it. I need to get back. My usual ruling is I deduct one from the contestant and award that to the chat. So I'm going to give Tom two. I'm going to give the chat one. I'll take it. I'll take it.
Starting point is 01:27:13 All right. This next player was a first round pick in the 2014 NFL draft. Sammy Watkins. Incorrect. Odell Becker Jr. That's correct, five points. What? I've known Jacob for so long.
Starting point is 01:27:31 I was like, there's only one way he's fitting OBJ in here. I thought OBJ seemed too obvious. I don't know. No, you don't understand. Jacob's up for Odell Beckett. There's no bounds. Could have gone with it. Shout out to OVJ.
Starting point is 01:27:48 I'm curious. Did you not? The next one was, yeah, the next one was he had his best yards per row run in the 2023 season in five years. One the Paul Horning Award, his junior year,
Starting point is 01:28:03 current ADP of 261, and is on his fifth NFL team or the other four. I probably, I probably would have had a harder time if you would have started with any other one. Yeah, I'd have gotten confused with that second clue, honestly.
Starting point is 01:28:14 Yeah, that was the best shot I had. Let's, let's fucking go. We're in it right now. All right. Okay. This player,
Starting point is 01:28:21 was the starting quarterback at a college football playoff game. Oh, that's a good one. The ADP over 200. That doesn't necessarily mean they have to be good. Yeah. I know he's an active player with an 80p above 200. None of these guys are currently good.
Starting point is 01:28:39 They're the degree of whether they were good changes. Sorry? Is it Sam Bennett? That's incorrect. I thought he started for Georgia. Oh, if you're going with, And for the record, the name is Stetson Bennett, but it's also not Stetson Bennett. There we go.
Starting point is 01:28:58 That's how much he matters. Come on, that's got to be a half-deasy guess, though. My brain went to Dwayne Haskins, but definitely not an active player. Oh, God. We're already down seven. I was the duck to point to be rude. I had that realization, like, halfway through being about to say it. I was like, oh, man.
Starting point is 01:29:18 that's yeah rip that's that got dark yeah um sorry and yes Toronto Day and Bennett does play for the Florida Panthers that was I'll take first guess next round all right yeah you should sit there and think about what you did yeah think about it's one of those things where I'm like I I feel like I need to share this thought but I know as soon as I do it's just like awful I don't know this player led the NFL in 23 in lost fumbles.
Starting point is 01:29:53 Oh, wow. Can you repeat that? Yeah, he led the NFL last season in lost fumbles. I was good. Is Justin Fields below a 200 Dynasty ADP? That's my guess.
Starting point is 01:30:06 That's incorrect. Okay. He led the league in lost fumbles. Interesting. And he started a playoff game. Oh, I think I just got it. I'll tell him the pressure is on.
Starting point is 01:30:20 I can't guess though. Is it, oh man, that's tough. That is tough. That is tough. Led the league and lost fumbles. It's not going to be Sam Darnel, is it? Not Sam Darnold.
Starting point is 01:30:36 Okay. Despite being noted for poor play, he has a shockingly reasonable eight and nine career record as a starting quarterback. Mac Jones. Incorrect. Ah!
Starting point is 01:30:48 Oh, you are so confident. I was confident that I don't know what Mac Jones record is. Probably more. It's an eight and nine record as a starting quarterback in the NFL? I just was trying to get it out as quick as possible. I didn't even really think about it. Damn, a career starting record. This isn't, this isn't Kenny Pickett, is it?
Starting point is 01:31:10 Oh, no, did we lose, Jacob? I'm not going to get an answer. I'm not going to get an answer. Wow. Is that what's happened? Did I get it so right that I don't get an answer now? Has Kenny Pickett won eight games? Actually, well, it's the Steelers.
Starting point is 01:31:27 It's Pittsburgh. Yeah. Yeah, maybe. Not enough games? Yeah. There's no way Desmond Ritters is underneath the outside of the top 200. Did he start in a college football playoff? Ritter?
Starting point is 01:31:39 I don't know. Cincinnati? I don't know. It's got to be Pickett. It's got to be. I'm going to say it's picket and call it a day. My next guess. Oh, okay, okay, hold on, hold on.
Starting point is 01:31:50 Yeah, we gotta wait. I need a fucking answer. I won't say my next guess. Can everyone, can you please hit subscribe and leave a comment so Jacob can finally afford a laptop that doesn't fucking die at the end of a show? That was the Jacob Sanderson hard out.
Starting point is 01:32:10 His battery literally died. Hello, hello. Every time, hit subscribe. So we can get this man a new outlet and a new USB port. All right. Sorry, my computer shit the bed there for a second. Yeah,
Starting point is 01:32:25 we had a guess yet. Yeah, I said, Jimmy Pickett as you were dying. Okay, Kenny Pickett is incorrect. So we'll go to the two points rounds. Sorry about that,
Starting point is 01:32:35 buddy. Okay. All that suspense for nothing. This player made his first career start versus the New Orleans Saints. Gardner Minshu. Incorrect. No, he's got to be inside.
Starting point is 01:32:47 the top 200. 8 and 9 as a starter is what's throwing me off in his career like outside of the top 200. It's throwing me off, man. There can't even be that many. Eight and nine,
Starting point is 01:33:02 is it like somehow, it's not Macon's. I'll just say it. I'll say Desmond Ritter. That's correct. There we go. He's eight and nine. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:33:14 Wow. That was what stopped me from saying Ritter as I thought there was no way. I honestly thought Ritter was being drafted inside the top 200. I don't know why in my brain he was still being drafted inside the top 200. All right. I mean, like, if you're if you're guessing Odell Beckham based on players that are very much of my. I know. I know.
Starting point is 01:33:32 I know. I know. I know. I know. I know. I know. I know. Tom gets, uh, nine points for that one.
Starting point is 01:33:39 Yeah. So shout up Tom. Um, I really thought Ryan was, Ryan was so confident on the lost fumbles. Is, uh, I was. I thought I had that like three separate times. Eight and nine is Mac Jones is a couple of years in the league. You can't be any sucks ass. There's no way he's eight and nine.
Starting point is 01:33:56 And showed out by the way to the Desmond Ritter, Alec Fierce, Cincinnati Bearcats, Cinderella team that made one called football type appearance. Okay. That's why I thought maybe Darnold because, but he didn't play enough to fumble that much. All right. This player was born in Japan and moved to Hawaii for the majority of his childhood.
Starting point is 01:34:17 Oh, that's got to be super specific. How many players are there like that? Hawaiian player. No, move to Hawaii. Moved to Hawaii. Born in Japan. Oh, born in Japan, moved to Hawaii. Oh, man.
Starting point is 01:34:30 Okay. How many Japanese-born players are there in the NFL, you wonder? Not a lot. No. Was you, like, born on a military base or something? I don't know. I get the stuff from Wikipedia, like. Okay.
Starting point is 01:34:43 Born in Japan, there cannot be, that many, active player. That has to be like a now here's the guy type information we get at the start of games. But it's lost on me. I'll go next round. All right. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:35:02 Sounds good. Okay. This player did little last year, but scored two touchdowns in week 18. I should have listened to Jake Trevee and talk about week 18 DFS more. Is it? Um, oh my God. Um, oh my God.
Starting point is 01:35:21 Oh, God. It's killing me now. It's actively killing me. Um, two touch. It's not Michael Wilson, is it? It's not Michael Wilson. But he did have some two touch in a game. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:35:34 I was just wondering, like, is this somebody that could have like, you got a guess, Ryan, or do you want a first next round? I'll take first next round. Are you? All right. Okay. Let me just phrase this the way that I want to phrase this. well you wrote it
Starting point is 01:35:47 no I just wrote bullet points and I didn't actually write out the script so okay his name sounds like he might hang out
Starting point is 01:35:58 on a famed animated island possibly with his friend Berto what um um Jesus with his friend Berto yeah
Starting point is 01:36:11 uh I don't I don't even want to say anything because I don't know if I'm giving Tom hits. Brother, I have no idea. That is no idea. No idea. Jolani Woods. Incorrect.
Starting point is 01:36:28 Oh. Is it a Jacob favorite? Okay. I was going one direction and I'm going a different direction. Is it Andre Yoshivas? It is Andre Yoshibati. There we go. Okay.
Starting point is 01:36:42 Player whose name I have to learn to pronounce now, because he's a thing. Yeah, I thought his name was Andre Iosyvis. I also thought that until like this week. Yeah. Okay, okay. All right. I was just throwing out another Jacob favorite.
Starting point is 01:36:55 All right. Good call. Yeah, Mervis is still in the game. All right. So this brings us to nine to three. It terms us two points. So we're going to do, let's see here. What do I need to do to the points here?
Starting point is 01:37:10 How can I? How can I? All right. Triple points. week. It's going to be triple-loid. Who could it? Ryan, Ryan can tie here. If he gets it on the fourth, he can win if he gets it on the third. Tom, of course, wins if he gets it at any point. Okay. This player has a current ADP of 234, a steep fall from each previous year in the NFL. That's really low, bro. A steep fall, which means he was getting drafted high.
Starting point is 01:37:42 Is that all, you know, I'll rephrase. question making it even a little bit more specific. There are two players. Okay. This player is currently being drafted outside the top 200. And it's also his first year being drafted outside the top 100. Oh. Traylen Berks.
Starting point is 01:37:57 Wow, five points. Oh, my God. How it's sick. Wow. When he said steep fall, I was thinking there's only one player that used to go where people were still fighting in that six, seventh round area last year. and it was Traylon Berks. Everyone else was already out of it. Wow. All right. That was, that was banging from Tom. Tom with another victory here.
Starting point is 01:38:22 He gets back on the board after losing the college round to Lucas. Ryan Heath did the really struggle here in the five for five. I think that's the first question I've gotten right in five for five history. I thought this was his chance. We were no longer asking him about a bunch of my favorite college players from 2004. Drew, appreciate it. But Tom's just that much smarter. Tom, 30 seconds to brag. about your victory here before we go. Well, look, I'll say this great show. Obviously, thinking about thinking, everything like that,
Starting point is 01:38:51 stay tuned for all the ass that you need over at FantasyPoint.com. Ryan and Scott are working heavily on. I will say that I've spent years accumulating useless football knowledge, but more than that, as much as you need to know your league, you need to know your gaming opponents. And I have spent since 2018, since he absolutely flew. released me in a, oh my gosh, I'm trying to remember the running, but James White Trade, Jacob has been someone that I have been studying, knowing the OBJ and knowing all of the other
Starting point is 01:39:27 little tidbits have helped me in this game. Know your opponents is one of the most important things in fantasy. Also, shout out, I believe this is my fourth win now here on the program. Shout out to everyone who played. We love each and every single one of you guys. look, it was an hour and 43. We are eventually going to get these down. One day we'll get back to like an hour and 10.
Starting point is 01:39:50 I promise one day we will get Jacob, a laptop that does not die. But to do so, once again, 65.6% of you are not subscribed. It means a lot to us. If you could, we love each and every single one of you. Thank you for tuning in. And just because one more time,
Starting point is 01:40:11 We're going to ride out one more time with a bunch of bestball. Good night, everybody. Not talking best ball in this podcast. A few moments later. Best ball is best ball. Best ball. Best ball pick. Best ball.
Starting point is 01:40:23 Best ball pick. As someone that makes the graphics for said program, it says dynasty points at the top. It doesn't say best ball points at the top. It's not even dynasty best ball takes. Like, I could live with a dynasty best ball take on the Dynasty point show. A few moments later Best ball Especially best ball
Starting point is 01:40:44 Best ball like best fault They're best ball 80 Best ball Best ball Best ball

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