Fantasy Football Daily - 8 Must Have Players To Target In Your Fantasy Drafts (2024)

Episode Date: June 26, 2024

Dynast Points is giving you 8 must have players in 2024 and why they should be on your radar heading into the 2024 dynasty draft season. South Harmon Fantasy Football and their WoRP tool here - https://www.southharmonff.com/ Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ All our podcasts are here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ Scott Barrett's draft dynasty strategy - https://youtu.be/oXDWOVx2oD0?si=yG_wYQk74l4ipxcA Where to find us: http://twitter.com/DynastyPts http://twitter.com/ElNostraThomas http://twitter.com/JakobSanderson http://twitter.com/LGilbertFF FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok- Http://TikTok.com/FantasyPts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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What? What are you shaking your head? You're welcome. Oh, it's Tuesday night. It can mean it's only your favorite night. It is Dynasty Points Night. No Jacob tonight. Look, we have a late start.

We had a couple of problems getting sorted. But we're here. No game tonight. We just want to get straight down to content we can provide and give Ryan's brain a break. from 5 and 5. So that's next week. We're back with 5 and 5. Next week, Paul Patterson is joining us here on the show.

You're not going to want to miss that. Obviously, if you're just tuning in and you're new here, we are not a new show. We are not a live reaction show. We're not even a waiver show. There's 6,322 other podcast articles, tweets that you can go to get that information. What we bring to you is not only,

entertainment value, but we bring you actionable and relatable, the dynasty advice, simplified in a way that is easy to digest and apply in your leagues. And this week is no different. Now, normally we go round the table and we give you a quick tidbit about ourselves. Not today, because I just feel like today it is important to dive right in. So I will just do the intros for myself. I am Thomas. He will find me at El Noster Thomas.

Ryan Heath joining us tonight. This is Ryan Heath at Ryan J underscore Heath, Lucas Gilbert. As always, our Debbie specialist at L. Gilbert FF. and the man of the hour, someone that I am so incredibly excited to have on this program, because A, I have no idea what's about to be said. B, the last time he and I were on a live stream, I ranted so hard YouTube crashed and canceled the stream mid-rant. He is the king of warp.

He is single-handedly changing how I view my player evaluations. This is someone I know as tear down because he's a man of my own heart. Someone that Ryan just the name probably makes him want to roll his eyes with how often I talk about it on the show. This is Big Mike at Iowa Michael. Co-founder of South Harmon Fantasy Football. I love you, buddy. And I'm very happy you're here today. I need you

You to come to my house and gas me up before like I walk in my bedroom Like to my wife Like I want her to feel that excited Come on, I want that introduction Maybe she'd be a little more jazzed Instead she just goes oh look who's here You get it That's kind of like yeah let's speed it

She'd be doing one of these to me Yeah, you just be like get to the point Get to the end No man for real you guys are the kings of war I send everyone your way, ATM in the chat. What a what up, brother. We're going to get you on here as well. Your compadre over there.

Thanks to everyone coming in. We got people coming over to South Harmon, some names I already recognize. So shout out to all of you guys. And everyone that's always watching. If you're watching on Twitter or X, whatever, head over to the FantasyPoint YouTube channel. That's YouTube.com backslash fantasy PTSD. Hit that subscribe button so me and my family can continue to eat timbits.

I need it ever so badly. Donut holes, whatever you want to call them. All right, I need them. My family needs them. We can't do that without you. It's important to us. So one thing I want to kick off with, because again, we don't do news.

We're not doing any of that extra stuff today. I want to get the difference between how you evaluate warp to where other people might be and what they might be doing wrong. You and I had a very long discussion about this as I was trying to understand this a lot better. We have data nerds here with Ryan and Lucas, and I'm myself more of a man of the people. Let's get it straight from one of the king's mouths himself.

What does South Harmon do differently with War than others? League specific. League specific. By using your sleeper username, using your MFL league ID, and customize it specifically for your league. is probably the biggest difference. And being able to see that not every league is the same. I mean, we play in so many different variants, superflex,

one QB for you antiquated people out there. Tighten premium now. Like you just say tight-in premium, everybody thinks, oh, tight-ins matter. Most tight-in premiums don't matter, right? Some people come to me and they'll be like, Mike, I play in a .75 star two tight-end. I said, would you plug it in the warp tool, see what it said?

No, but they have to matter, right? And you plug it in, you find out they're just as shittiest in the other league. League-specific warp is very key. If you can't tell me exactly what the scoring is in your league, what warp is telling you for value, I think you're probably doing it wrong. Like, we can take 10,000-foot views at it all day long. But until I know what your exact league is, my advice can't really be the best it possibly can be, like what you should be doing that league or how you should be valuing players. So league specific, keep hammering it over and over again, Thomas. What does your specific league tell you in Warp that you should be doing?

Right. And a lot of people assume that Warp is strictly a redraft tool. And I say that because I used to. One of the first things I approached you with is I see this as an in-season tool. This isn't really a dynasty tool. How are you applying it in dynasty terms? because Ryan has done a ton of work on the most translatable stats, what we know are the stickiest, what actually matter.

War wasn't on the list. So I want to know how you apply that going forward with the data that you have for people that may not understand how to use it to their advantage within a dynasty setting. A lot of it is because it's so easy to trade within positions, right? Thomas, if I'm dealing you a wide receiver and you're dealing me a wide receiver back, we have an idea both in our minds what these guys are valued at, who needs to add the plus, who's got to add the pick, you know, maybe it's just so good for you, you're getting your

guy and I'm getting my guy. That's an easy trade. But so many a dynasty trades are going to involve cross positions. And so many people go, I don't know how to properly value them. We do have things that help. ADP helps, right? Looking at if you like keep trade cut ranks and kind of seeing what the community is on it. But Warp cuts through all that for me, where I can look at it and I go, I don't need ADP.

I can factor that into my decision. I can factor in keep trade cut ranks or somebody's specific ranks into my decision. But Warp will tell me if, you know, I'm giving up a tight end and in this league tight ends don't really matter. I don't give it crap. What tight end is, as long as I'm getting a position that does matter in that league. So let's take it if wide receivers really matter in that league and I'm giving up tight end three, how I would go and look at Warp. see where what historically the tight end three scores in this league for Warp, I look at maybe say it's a wide receiver who's going to be in that teens range. And I see what that wide receiver

does in that teens range. And if Warp tells me, man, outside of youth or obvious like I'm trading, you know, for an old Devante Adams or something doesn't fit my team build, if it's pretty close in age, pretty close in dynasty value, I can look at it and go, man, warp tells me wide receivers all day over this tight end, gone, send it. And, and then, and then, send it. And, And those are the kind of edges I'm always trying to look for in my leagues because trading has become so much harder with everybody tapping into so much content and getting smarter and there's so many resources out there. Right. Everybody's an expert, right? And trades aren't getting done as much because people both see a trade coming in.

They go, that offer is atrocious. You know, five years ago, that would have been a great offer. Five years ago, we get deals done all the time. Today, everybody's an expert. And they go, that's terrible. I'm never doing a deal with you ever again. You're trying to bend me over. I can look at warp and maybe find that little bit of an edge

where somebody's not really paying attention to, and it helps me get more deals done in Dynasty, even though to your original point, it is more of a redraft tool. That's what you're actually using it for, but you can use it in Dynasty, especially for trading. So I think the biggest thing, like whenever I've tried to do,

like my own war, warp projections, is how do you handle, like, Superflex-type leagues? Thomas, you're always a proponent of you don't need to start the crappiest quarterback just to have a quarterback to throw into your Superflex spot. How do you kind of handle that whenever you're looking at some of the teams that maybe you adopted an orphan

that only has one actual solid quarterback in Jacoby percent is sitting down there as your QB2? So how do you kind of factor that into your warp calculator? So a lot of it with warp-specific in league-specific dynamics is the scoring, right? I've been doing a lot more work lately in trying to figure out the difference between different league types. Cupa, I see he's in the chat too.

He just did a podcast on this one as well. We don't really acknowledge the difference between 4-point and 6-point passing touchdowns like we should. It absolutely changes everything. And for the longest time, people just assumed that's just two more points. Quarterbacks are a little bit more valuable. You start to look at warp charts and the difference between a 4-point league and a 6-point league. It changes everything. So in a 6-point league, I'm far more low.

likely to really hammer home the point that I need a quarterback in my superflex spot. No ifs, and Sands or butts about it. And I want a good, solid one that's going to run me through the season. Not somebody where I'm relying on a Jacoby Bresset or Sam Donald. I'm just trying to get a few games or buy some starts here. I want somebody that I can plug in and go, man, this guy's going to start for the whole season. And when you look at the warp chart, that's the move. That's the move to make.

In four point, it does come down, right? where if your choices are Derek Carr's and Gino Smith and like plugging these kind of guys in, you can go a little bit more lax and go, man, this super flex spot really doesn't matter too much to me. Now, the way I like to play is you'll still find in four point leagues that the Russian quarterbacks, those guys at the top are real warp advantages. So if I can get two of those guys on my team and now I'm not only beating you at the quarterback spot, but I'm going to beat you at the superflex spot almost every single week, that's ideally what I want to do.

But at least in 4-point, it opens up to a little bit more flexibility with what you want to do, a little bit different with roster construction. In 6-point, if your league doesn't subscribe to the fact that quarterbacks really do matter, that's where it opens up the fact that I'm going to dominate this league over and over again because I have information that you obviously don't have access to or don't care to look at. No, I think it's huge. I think you end up really figuring out, because you said it great about how tight ends just don't matter unless you're like the top two guys right so when i've what i have found as i collect my thoughts here is in tight end premium all it does is separate the best from the worst like it doesn't give you much of an advantage over other wide receivers as much as people might think but what it does is it helps separate who the top guy is going to be and separate tier one from tier one

from tier two and then tier two to deer three and then everyone else. So what Warp has helped me do is really decipher what these guys are worth. Can you move, you know, whoever your tight end six might be, your tight end six might be. If somebody values them in a tight end premium, you're more able to start looking at guys that are DJ Moore caliber, our Nico Collins caliber for these, for these guys, a lot more sensibly. It helps me just be a little bit more aware. I have kind of a question I want to pose to the room a little bit just in terms of these warp type metrics.

In my experience, any time I'm looking at them, especially if I'm stacking multiple seasons and kind of looking how it changes over the years, the tight end position is a good example right now, right? Kind of for years, basically because of Travis Kelsey, it was sort of what Thomas just said, yeah, you need a top one or a top two tight end. you're getting a very big warp advantage. Now it's not so clear, I would say, just based on the talent profiles of all the tight ends in the league right now and how they stacked up last year in terms of any sort of warp metric. How do you kind of look forward and say, or really, I guess I should say, how do you keep the balance between I understand that these are the positions that have been valuable in the past versus this year I'm projecting that these positions or this band of guys at this

position may not be as valuable to winning games. I like that you bring that up to because there's some things I've had this conversation, not particularly with tight ends, though I can say at least on a warp like perspective and looking at multiple years of warp now and using Kupa's multi-year warp tool where he's factoring in five years of warp days. data and just stripping away the names and just giving you finishes, just like QB1, QB2, this is where historically they finish and warp the average. I will say I have looked at it from the quarterback perspective because the warp discrepancy

between quarterbacks and the other positions has come down these last couple years, albeit some of it the last two years, I think we've had the most amount of quarterbacks start a game during the regular season. 56 last year, I believe. Yeah, it was like 60 before the year before. So part of that is playing into it. Part of this new playing more zone coverage, matchup zone coverage. Offenses are a little bit more condensed, not as big plays.

It's leaning a lot more zone heavy. So when I look at it for quarterbacks, it's come down the last couple of years. Now, Adam and I've had conversations about it. Would it flip at some point? Like, would 24 maybe be the start of the Great Reset? Because we all know the NFL kind of goes in these cycle periods. People act like in the 80s. All they did was run the football.

And then you look at like an aerobiles. Cori-Ale offense with Dan Fouts and they're out there chucking the ball all over the yard. So the NFL does have these cycles. I do wonder with tight ends, because to your point, looking at the graphs for them, this last year was probably the worst tight-end warp line that you're going to see, even for the elite guys. It was just a bunch of dudes just kind of jam-packed in there, right? Evan Ingram's up there.

David and Joku's up there. Guys that we don't really value highly. I do wonder with Travis Kelsey moving on. to your original point if this is going to become the new norm for the next couple years until somebody else emerges maybe it's a cow pits or a dalton gincade or you know the great brockbangers that we haven't seen anything from so a lot of that just does become projections but the cool thing about the multi-year warp is if five years is too big of a sample size for you maybe you just wanted to look at the last two years you can adjust the slider pull it down

and just look what's going on in the last two years give yourself a smaller window to kind of make those a but it is going to be a projection at the end of the day. It's going to be an analysis of what the chart, what the data is telling you. I want to touch on this a little bit more, but before we do, we have to take a quick break and we come back. I want to add on to this and extend this conversation just a little bit. So sit tight, quick break, and we'll be right back. One of the things that you taught me, Mike, with this warp system is that you can take what the top, tight end or the top or the, second tight end or the third tight end or the fourth wide receiver averaged in warp or what they

needed to average in warp to get to their position in their warp total, the windover replacement total. What we can do now is we can look at, okay, the last three years this receiver had X points per game. It translated into X warp. He has to hit this marker to be this valuable in warp, that's a little more projectable. So when you say you have to do a little bit more projecting, is that the path you're taking? Because you showed, you taught me that.

Like you can take what's expected from the top quarterback, the fifth quarterback, and the sixth, and you can apply it to your league's history of finishes. Is that something that you're referring to when you're talking about projecting? Are you using a culmination of other stats to really solidify your projection? That's going to be the base of it. It really is.

And just for the audience to give him the example of what I was talking about, let's use Sam Laporte of him. If you like him last year, he was tight in three in most leagues, right? Each league is going to be different because of scoring settings or first down bonuses, big plays, that kind of thing. But just in a generic league, he was right around Titan 3 in Warp. He really was. And if you project him this year, you say, hey, Sam LaPorte is going to be right around that tight end three range again

on how he finishes, if that's a reasonable projection, which I would say it is, that kind of gives you the baseline of where to start on your warp evaluation. So if I use Sam LaPorteur right here and I say, hey, three is a very reasonable projection for him. I can definitely see him maybe he's two, maybe he's four. Three's a nice little average. I think that's going to be perfect for Sam LaPorteur to do my projections. He gives me a 1.214 warp, right? It's a lot of numbers that throw at you. 1.214. If I look at Sam Laporteur, and, for example, Thomas, back to the point about trading and how I like to use it for it, if somebody was offering for my Sam Leporta,

I'm going to try to get a player that I can reasonably project at their position that has a better than 1.214 warp. Right. And I'm going to try to find that little bit of edge where we have that disconnect where they maybe don't like them because of age. If I'm a contending team, maybe they just don't like the player in general that they have on their team. Maybe they don't think it's as valuable in this league. They're not paying attention.

So like a good one to throw at you. What about like D.K. Medcalf? Yeah. DK. Medcalf would be a good one. DK. Medcalf would be a good one. Last year he finished as wide receiver 20 in Warp, which was a 1.247 in generic Warp. So a little bit better than Sam Leporta.

But I would imagine just with way people value Sam Leporta because he's so young, the way we kind of shit on D.K. Metcalf, right? These old news, no one really cares anymore, right? Player fatigue. Right. If I have a D.K. Medcalf and I go, man, wide receiver 20 kind of feels like an appropriate range for him, but I could also see him go a little bit higher. Maybe he's in the teens. Maybe he's in the mid-teens. Maybe he can approach that back in wide receiver one territory.

Maybe he has a little bit of rebound with this offensive change and how goes Pete Carroll and in comes this new and improved whatever it's going to be. if that's my thing, I say, well, my baseline floor is already better than what I project Sam LaPort at, and my baseline floor is already better when I'm projecting DK.K. Metcalfe, dynasty value then comes into play. What is like a keep trade cut? What is ranking say? What are historical trades here within the last month, you know, through various leagues and trade trackers and trade finders say, then I could plug that in. Hell, maybe I'm walking away with a second round pick added on to DK. Metcalfe. And for me, as the, quote unquote tear down king that's like that's what i want to do i want to take the the two assets

which i think with the one that i'm getting is already as good if not better than the one i'm sending away and just get the plus on top well it's nice it's it's great that you mention that because chris chris godwin is the type of player right uh i put him through a six point league with a point five tight end premium six point passing touchdown league no crazy bonuses turned out uh he ended up giving me like a 1.087 warp and then I'm going to get into this. But in 2022, his warp was 1.402. So there's opportunity for that to grow, which is above what LaPorta would be. I guarantee you, if you're going out there and asking somebody for Chris Godwin, you're

getting a first on top of LaPorta, you're getting another booty cheek tight end with Godwin and a first for LaPorte, especially if you went after that 26. and you're just stacking pieces on top. I think that is even a guy like Metcalf, you can be like, well, Sam Leporter goes in the early third round of startups late second. I mean, D.K. Metcalf is a fifth round pick, bro. I mean, I just need that.

I need more on top of that. And like you said, you're going to be able to get it. So I think what you hit on is great. I love that you use DK Metcalf because I'm about to talk about them when we hit this next portion here. But we have some stuff in the chat that I want to get to. here someone had asked I just got to find it where and how do I find the war chart well I will tell you where you find tear down mics the goat uh war chart look you have to go to south

harman fantasy football and get signed up for their warp tools it is unbelievable I'm a sub the link is going to be in the description to the show as soon as we're done here so you're going to want to stay to the end get locked in leave a comment about it let us know that you went over there and you subscribed and and signed up we'll pin that comment we'll shout you out on next week's show because we love that so you're going to want to head over there get locked in and start taking advantage like i said this is something that i have really started to apply everyone that listens to this show on a regular basis knows how often i sit here and just scream i'd rather have this player and get a plus on top of it.

It makes Ryan sick with how often I talk about it. But today I brought reinforcements. No, all joking aside, I think that this has, especially with how it kind of now can be used to play dynasty. Because like you said, a lot of people, even myself, used to think of it in one way. But now we're getting like you said, a lot better at projections, a lot better at understanding where players are going to finish. The market is getting sharper. I have a great example of that, by the way,

that I'm going to pull up from a conversation that Scott Barrett and I had the other day with how market has changed. So great. I love this. This is a phenomenal 23-minute-long intro to what Warp is, and I think it's just going to make the rest of the show

breaking this down a lot, a lot easier. So again, shout-up for everyone. Hang with us for this. So let's get into a couple of players. Look, eight players is what we're aiming to give you. If we give you more than eight, great.

If we get through more than eight. Jacob's not here. We may not get a 30-minute side tangent on the P-line this week, but we got some other stuff that I'm really excited to talk about. And Mike, you're a guest of honor. So please, one player that you can think of that has legitimate value in drafts. This isn't just an artificial, this guy, hashtag good, legitimate value in drafts and that you can go and pick up today.

Who do you have? So I talked about them on a short video I just did last week. Now, our video editor, Brian, just makes me look better than I actually am. So bear with me because this doesn't have all the fancy graphics and, you know, funny little gifts inserted. But Tyler Lockett is one that I'm pretty high on. I really am. He is absolutely dirt cheap. He's terribly cheap.

cheap like 15th round startup ADP cheap in Super Flex Leaks that's I mean he goes right next to Gabe Davis who I also featured on the video but my first love is going to be Tyler Lockett it really is last year it was a down year for Tyler Lockett it was kind of just a down year for that whole Seattle offense if you remember too they had they had both offensive tackles strangely injured for a good stretch too yeah and they just they never really seem to click all together ends up with Pete Carroll being told to please get out but nicely finally Tyler Lockett though through all that

down year for him you know not a real pass heavy scheme they were like right middle of the road and past attempts per game it just it wasn't a great situation still through all that this is a guy who was a wide receiver 3 now albeit the wide receiver 3

like you can't go lower than 36 and still be wide receiver 3 so he still gave you value and from a warp perspective when I look at him I go this is a guy who, at the very least, if I roster construct correctly, I can put on my team as my fifth, six wide receiver, more than likely, and he's going to deliver for me. Like, I'm going to be able to start Tyler Lockett in a flex spot and not really worry too much. And he's also kind of always been that perfect flex type wide receiver or that third wide receiver on your team type role where if he goes out and gets you three points, you don't really care. But you really do love the weeks that he goes out and goes for four. And you go, oh, my God.

That just won me the week. And I think that's why he does so well in Warp. Even last year, with it being a down year, he was good. And you could still put him in there. And now we get an offense where, I get it, it's kind of a black box, and we don't know how Ryan Grub's system in college at Washington is going to translate to the state of Washington and Seattle playing in the NFL now. But I think it would be okay.

It obviously is not going to be too much worse than middle of the road, hum gross Pete Carroll like inspired shit that we had last year so Tyler Lockett at his price and what he delivered in Warp I think is a massive buy and some of the trades that you were seeing for him like people are throwing like fourth rounders for Tyler Lockett like I would kill to be able to get a starting flex position on my team for just a fourth rounder like please please let me do it I treat third rounders as those kind of guys where maybe I got to buy a spot start in season from a running back.

You know, some turd burger running back that I don't really like, but he's getting the touches because everybody else is injured. There's nobody else. Your Rico, Dowdells? Yes. Some turd burger like that, I'm getting a guy that's better than that turd burger, and I'm going to be able to start multiple games. Even if Tyler Lockett only gave me six games and then he was injured the rest of the

year, at least those six games didn't cost me much. I was going to send that third for something even worse for one game. So Tyler Lockett for me is a massive. massive buy of the pick we're gonna we're gonna talk about another seattle uh wide receiver because i think i'm just all about i wrote about gno smith early in the off season and now we're just rolling through with more seattle offense ryan one of the eight players that you have locked in as a legitimate value and why for the people all right i will give the people something new it's someone i haven't talked a lot about this off season so far i want to talk about jacobi

Myers a little because kind of similarly with Lockett here. Yes, kind of on the edge of is this a startable type of player? Definitely know your league settings. If you're going to start eight, ignore everything I'm about to say. But if you have a little bit deeper of a starting lineup, if you have an extra flex spot where a Jacoby Myers could be a useful player for you every single year, look, he is the wide receiver 64 right now in round four. 14 on Dynasty Data Lab.

I love doing all these predictive stats, especially the fancy ones. They get the people going and all that. But the fact of the matter is, the most predictive stat for next year's fantasy points is last year's fantasy points. And Jacoby Myers finished us the wide receiver 24 in half PPR points per game last year. Price incredibly far down from that. And I can even tell you a story that will get you excited about Jacobi Myers. is upside. Ready? This is going to be a really tough task that I did. Rividing. Yes. So Jacoby

Myers last year from the slot, 0.57 fantasy points per route run. That was top 10 among all wide receivers who ran at least 100 routes in the slot. He was mostly playing outside primarily last year, I would say, because Hunter Renfro was there running 90% of his routes from the slot, right? Right. Now Hunter Renfro is gone. it's unclear, I would say, who is going to take on the majority of slot reps in Vegas. Trey Tucker's there, Brock Bowers, maybe you could factor in. I strategically picked this show to talk about this so that Jacob wouldn't yell at me about Brock Bowers. But I think it's possible that Myers takes, if not like the full-time slot role, I would not expect that.

Take some more snaps in the slot. He's been very efficient there lately. and we've also seen Gardner Minchew's slot receiver from last year, Josh Downs, be quite productive within weeks two through eight. So when Minchu was mostly throwing the ball and before Downs hurt his knee, he was averaging 10.7, half ppr points per game. That was just half a point per game less than Michael Pittman. So you can, yeah. So you can almost just imagine this offense, kind of like the cult's offense last year, is 10 and a half fantasy points per game out of Jacoby Myers getting you super excited? Is he like racing up the warp chart? Probably not.

But I think there's something to be said, especially again, in larger starting lineup types of leagues. If you're sitting in the 14th round of a dynasty startup, maybe you didn't draft a bunch of wide receivers early and it's Quentin Johnson or Jacoby Myers. I think at some point before I have flipped over from I want production to I'll take the 0.1% chance of upside with no projected production this year. I think Jacobi Myers comes before that. And that's really my only take. Now, yeah, I understand if it's too boring, it's too gross, you don't want to be

starting Jacoby Myers in your perfectly crafted. championship league winning roster. But I just wanted to call it out because he's basically been forgotten and is being valued as if he was not just a top 24 wide receiver. It's fair. Before we went live, I was talking to Mike about how, why is Jacobi Myers?

I thought Mike put it on there. I was like, someone's going to try to convince me to go and pick up Jacoby Myers. And I actually had no idea who it was. I should have known. I should have known that it would be the known needle. mover Ryan Heath coming in to try to move the needle in ADP on another wide receiver. Free flexes.

We love those. Lucas, another player of our eight for the people that have legitimate dynasty value. So I'm going to switch up a little bit, not do a wide receiver. Don't worry, I have a wide receiver for later, but we've talked about wide receivers too much for just right now. So looking at somebody I've been pounded table all offseason, you need to be investing in this player. And that is Jalen Warren at running back 30, 10th round of your startups. That is such an awesome place, especially if he's like your RB2. Say you got, I don't know, one of the top three or four in your second round.

You got Bejohn, you got Breece, you may have got Jemir Gibbs. And then you're ignoring that until you get to the 10th round. And you're getting somebody who graded top five in pretty much every single efficiency category that there is for running backs, which I know who cares about efficiency at running backs. It's all about volume. And yes, Noggy Harris is still there. They're bringing in Arthur Smith. And that's going to keep making sure that there will be multiple running backs involved.

And he is one injury away from becoming this season's 2022 Tony Pollard. He has the potential to win you a league. Plus, with his efficiency numbers the way they are, plus having a younger age, this is somebody who's not only going to be good this year. He's going to be good next year too, and you aren't having to pay a premium for him. That's why I'm going to drafting Jalen Warren every single chance I get. Still relatively cheap to acquire via trade. As of now, I imagine.

I think he's a player that's going to skyrocket and price the minute he touches the field. He just feels like he has that vibe to me. I completely agree. All right. Well, look, go ahead. You push back or no. Of course you can. I hate being.

the guy that's pushing back and keeping up for Najee Harris. This is your role. You should have told me. Hold on. I just want to point out. I actually shut down. Hold on. I just also want to point out that I did comment on one of Ryan's posts earlier in the offseason.

And I was pro Najee. And earlier this off season, Ryan corrected me on this. And I will post this because I believe I can still find it. So just so everyone knows, we have another live change of opinion here. on the program. It's not Jacob this time. I mean, I'm, I'm, I'm going to get on the opposite side of whatever opinion is being presented to me about the Steelers. Okay. All right. It's a little different. Let's not take this too seriously here. But I have to say, uh, Jacob Gibbs, uh, one of my favorite follows on

Twitter, make sure you go check out his newsletter. He is just sending incredible content straight to your inbox for free at FF today. A few days ago, he covered the Steelers backfield from a schematic perspective. And he noted that Arthur Smith in Atlanta absolutely loved to run zone runs, right? Najee Harris, much better in zone type of concepts than on man gap concepts, like extremely wide split. he was 57th among 58 qualified backs in yards per man gap rush, much better in the zone rushing stuff.

I think there's a chance here that Arthur Smith just sees Najee Harris as the schematic fit. He kind of does everything just well enough that he's on the field a bunch. Yes, he's going to use two backs. It is Arthur Smith. I understand that. But that just makes me, it just, holds me back a little bit from the getting really excited about Jalen Warren. So I just wanted to show that.

Thanks to Jacob Gibbs for giving me nightmares about Najee Harris this week. Yeah. I will say, even though I also like nausea, right? You just outlined even reasons that I didn't consider whatever I said I like Nogie Harris. But do like Noggy Harris. But just because Noggy Harris can still have a good season doesn't mean that that's to the detriment of Jailon Warren. Jalen Warren can be effective on his own. He's going to maintain value throughout the season.

And even if he's splitting a backfield, I still see him as an RB2 right now that you can get in the 10th round and maintain value. Remember, he's playing with Russell Wilson now, who is a checkdown king as well. And I'm sorry for the Justin Fields people, but there's a reason I bet Jacob that Russ is finishing this year as the starter, barring injury. I feel very confident in that because Justin Fields,

I mean, even as even as the Madden trailer pointed out, talked about his returning kicks. I mean, the jokes, they write themselves, the memes write themselves, A plus to whoever made that trailer, by the way, bloody hilarious. Justin Fields also checks down a lot, just saying. I know he does, but I can see that, yeah.

It didn't fit my joke, Ryan. Didn't fit my joke. Sorry. Appreciate that being Mr. Neutral here. Just not letting me go on my ranting, raving lunatic bing. we're going to take a quick break before I give you my first player that I feel has insane value

when we come out after this little break here. Look, you dominate your home office and family leagues every year. Now it's time to take your game to the next level. The FFC is the place to play fantasy football this summer. No salary caps, no DFS, no new formats to learn just pure drafting fun that you have always loved. FFPC is home to multiple million dollar grand prizes. Big boy money. Massive bestball tournaments.

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Maybe even try to figure out if Jacob and I can somehow manage to co-manage a team together and just post the DMs of him and I going back and forth because peak peak hilarity. You touched on a Seattle Seahawk, Mike.

And I am not going to, I'm not going to dip back in that well just yet. There is another player, though, that I want to talk about. And not the player that this individual left a comment on at 3.36 p.m. which I just wanted to shout you out

because that is not that long after I made the link. Today it is not going to be Jacoby Brissette because I refuse to make our listeners endure one more time about Jacoby Brissette on this podcast. I'm not going to do it. I wouldn't do that to you. I don't want to lose subscribers. The player I'm going to talk about is Chris Godwin,

his 80P on that. Dynasty Data Lab, wide receiver 42. As I mentioned, there's some information for you. His warp, like I said, 1.087. You know what his comparison is from last year? George Pickens in this league that has six-point passing touchdowns with a 0.5 tie-in premium and no crazy bonuses. George Pickens had a 1.06 warp last year.

He's going at wide receiver 24. This is a significant difference to somebody. Like Chris Godwin. Now you're going to say Chris Godwin had a down year. Now I agree. His yards per route run was only a 1.95. Obviously, we know that he is a bit of an underneath merchant, right? It's reflected in his yards per target, only being 41st.

But his slot rate was significantly down at a 38.4%. He only hit a 12.3 points per game on a 13.6 projecting. Now, you might be saying, Tom, are you out of your damn mind? Well, I might be. I probably am. But let's be real. Let's look at how this compares to 2022. And I'll tell you why that's important.

His warp was a 1.402 in these settings. That's 12th best at his position. You know what his comp was? Waddle at a 1.510. Not that far off. And still, same thing. His yards per target, his yards per route run. All were in the 31st, 47th.

not great, but his slot rate was fourth best at 72.5%. A 15 point per game, tied for 12th, by the way, which is pretty damn good. And a 15.7 expected fantasy points for game. Why is this significant? Because the Buccaneers have already come out and expressed how much they need Chris Godwin in the slot for 2024. They drafted a receiver that can win on the outside and can play on the outside right away.

I'm all about Chris Godwin at his price right now. He is often regarded as just one of the budget wide receivers down there in the Amari Cooper range in drafts in the Christian Kirk range in drafts. This is a free 13 to 15 point per game flex play that you can go and get as your fifth to sixth wide receiver in drafts and are very acquireable in trades right now in any league. Chris Godwin is that dude this year, and I'm about it. I know Canales left, but you put this man in the slot, and I really think it's wheels up for Chris Godwin in 2024. He also, there's also the factor of Chris Godwin, yes, in the beginning of the year last year, not too impressive, not great production.

After week 13, his wife, Mariah Godwin, takes to Instagram and calls out Todd Bulls for literally lying about him being banged up or whatever and that being why he wasn't playing as much from that point on chris godwin averaged like a 30% target share i'm not kidding go look it up i had a tweet at one point about it it yeah the later season splits for chris godwin were very interesting the usage definitely shifted a lot back in his favor and i don't think that's being priced in really at all either in redraft or in dynasty right now. So I agree. I am all about Chris Godwin as a value as well.

Absolute smash. Love the backup. Mike, we're going back to you. We need another player that you think has legitimate value for people looking to draft or pick up via trade, a player at a discount. As the guy who said tight ends don't matter,

I'll give you a tight end. Give me a title right now. And it's Tucker Craft in Green Bay. Now here's my points on Tucker Craft. We also have this thing called A-Warp, adjusted warp, which doesn't affect a player if they're not being started in normal league. So it goes off a start percentage. If a player's injured, it doesn't count against them, right?

When we look at total warp, like you throw out the 1.4 number for Chris Godwin, that's looking at all 17 games, like his final total number. If you think of AWARP and warp per game as more of that, you know, like points per game metric, you know, how we kind of got away from total finish and started looking at on a per game basis. Tucker Kraft got credited with five games that he was a starting tight end, meaning that people were pushing the button and putting Tucker Kraft in the lineups. And when you look at his warp per game for those five, he's finishing better than Dallas Goddard, Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, league winner, Joanne Johnson. And I can say that too because

Joanne Johnson actually helped me win a championship with some of those final couple performances. Thank you, Joanne. He won Best Ball Mania, Joanne Johnson. That's right. League winner, the ultimate league winner, Joanne Johnson. And yet Graham Barfield refuses to let me draft him on

Best Ball breakdown every week, even though every week I am begging and pleading for Joanne Johnson. So, Graham, Thursday, I might bring Mike. And we're coming for you. I'll make Tray do it tomorrow on draft kings. That'll be fun. Thank you. He is actually, he was tied with Jake Ferguson and just below Dalton Schultz.

Like that is the company that Tucker Kraft was getting. The other thing I have is Tucker Craft's a guy that I've liked for a while now coming out of college. I thought he was the better tight end between him and Luke Musgrave. I mean, Luke Musgrave played in the Pac-12, the now extinct Pac-12, what, the Pac-2? he played essentially like a West Coast version of Theo Johnson. All hype and athleticism, no actual production. And it always made me wonder what the hell was wrong with Luke Musgrave, that you're at a school like that that doesn't play really, really good competition.

You are incredibly athletic. You are incredibly bigger, faster, stronger than everybody that you're playing against or trying to cover you. And you still can't produce at a level that would even get the most casual person. All of his really came from was the Senior Bowl Week and everybody Ulin and awing over him at the Senior Bowl. Now, albeit, he did go ahead in the draft of Tucker Kraft, but the little bit I saw out of Luke Musgrave and then the little bit I saw at Tucker Craft really makes me solidify this point about Tucker Kraft.

When he got on the field and Luke Musgrave was hurt, Tucker Craft actually changed how that kind of offense was funneled. It wasn't so much through the wide receivers. The tight end actually became a bigger point of emphasis. Tucker Kraft can block, Tucker Craft can catch, Tucker Craft is good after the catch. I think Tucker Kraft right now, at his current price going four rounds past where Luke Musgrave goes, in Dynasty startups, in trade talks, whatever. I want to see if I can't get just a few shares of Tucker Craft thrown on my team,

because what if this is the year that they kind of decide that, oh, this is like the Hayden Hurst, Mark Andrews situation in Baltimore a few years ago, where we actually drafted the better tight-in later than the other guy. And whenever they end up making that switch, which I think they would do, you're going to want a lot of Tuckercraft just kind of hanging around. Now you can get it for nothing, pennies. So back in college, Luke Musgraves' M.O. was that whenever he's actually on the field, he looks incredible. Not to dig on Oregon State too much,

but that's not too difficult to do, especially early on whenever he was at Oregon State. Orgy State does get better, but didn't get picked up by any of their conferences. I digress. But that was the big if, or when, when he's actually able to be on the field. He has dealt with injury issues since he was a freshman, and those have continued into the NFL.

Now, injury issues don't have to be a career-long thing, but they have plagued him now for, I think, five years at this point. I don't know, even in mop-up duty, or if he's just filling in getting the spot start as the title one, I've really liked that Tucker. craft pick i will say if we're talking about injuries though tucker craft torres peck is missing all of training camp so i've kind of been on this i originally i was okay i'm i'm just drafting both packers tight ends because there's very clearly somebody is a value here i've been leaning more towards

musgrave recently but hearing you guys talk fine i will go back to sprinkling in tucker craft that that's the journey i just went and it's funny that you say that because i said that i'm avoiding them both because I think they're just going to be annoying. I think that for fantasy, I just think they're just going to irritate the hell out of me and I'm just, they're never going to see my lineup. But I'm equally into both at cost as darthroes.

I don't lean as heavily like Mike would one way or the other. Just because if somebody else in that draft wants to take musgrave higher, sweet, I'll take craft. If somebody wants to take craft higher than I want to, then I'll just take musgrave. This is the classic I'll take who's cheaper. this is my really bad tight end version of Nico and Del. I will just take who's cheaper when it does come to me.

I'm going to go one more time before I cycle it back around because I have one bonus player that I want to talk about at the end of the show for the people who have made it all the way around and nobody wants to hear me talk back to back. You two might shut down the stream. And I will tell that story at the end of the show because I think it needs to be told for how glorious it was Mike did reference Seattle earlier and we did talk about DK Metcalf,

but one more player I have for everybody that I feel is an actual value. We're going back to the well over in rainy Seattle. DK Metcalf, ADP is his 56 pick and he's 20 wide receiver 21 over at Dynasty Data Lab. If you're not familiar, link will also be in the description at the end of the show. His warp in the same setting, six point passing touchdown, Superflex, 0.5 tight end premium. 1.234 warp. His comparison that I found is Chris Olavet at 1.347 being drafted wide receiver 11. Pick 32.

That is a substantial difference. Last year in a down year for this offense, his yards per reception was still godly. At 16.88. He didn't have a great yards per route run. He was 22nd. But his yards per target, 9.77. Why? Our man, Gino, chucks the ball downfield on a regular basis, and he's bloody well, good at it.

D.K. Metcalf, if he just had slightly better hands, would have had considerably more touchdowns. Why do I think this? He had 16 end zone targets last year. It was tied for fourth in the league. The dude just lets footballs bounce right off of his face mask. but he still had 14.1 points per game on a 14.4 expected fantasy points per game and we know what he is. He is a super jacked up skiddle-eating lunatic that is getting a more modern offense going to help push the ball downfield. I know we talked about the risk of a play caller coming from college not being a head coach and how it translates. And Mike McDonald is a very smart coach from what we saw as the defensive coordinator in Baltimore coming from a very run heavy team.

But what he has is the opportunity to use play action and chuck the ball deep to an absolute freak of nature with a quarterback that is not afraid of throwing into too high safety coverage. JSN breaks out and he gets to work underneath. It's going to clear some room. If Tyler Lockett isn't dust like Mike pointed out, guess what? You're going to have to worry about that. They open it up. Now they're going to run the ball. This team is set up to have an absolutely explosive offense.

and all we need is for Sam Howell to not touch the field. And I'm not worried about that. Gino is my guy. I wrote him up at FantasyPoints.com. You can find it as veterans that are undervalued in draft. I wrote that and I think February and he still is. D.K. Machouse Price doesn't make sense to me. He's a value to me.

He's worth the investment and you should be buying a lot more of them. For example, prefer him over T. Higgins. Prefer him over Tank Dell. prefer him over Michael Pittman Jr. A lot of receivers that I prefer D.K. Matt Calf on. I am all in on the Seattle Seahawks passing offense

this year. There you go. Seahawks. Look, I think I think I could sell ice to a Canadian at this point. I'm getting pretty good at this. But no, for real. I love this offense and I'm

willing to go down with the ship. I was actually even going to include JSN. But I was like, I think, I think, I think I would be lying to everybody if I actually tried to make that bull of a case. Crickets, oh, come on now. This is better than crickets. I don't want to get too off topic here. I'm going to pose a quick question to the group.

How much of the perceived potential for a JSM breakout this year do you think is affecting the price of all of the other CALC's wide receivers? Zero. Okay. Yeah, I don't think people believe, honestly. I think if the JSN breakout was affecting the price, I think JSN would be going over DK Metcalf. Both of them have the same exact number of needle-moving wide receiver one seasons in the league in their career, right, which is zero.

JSN, yes, obviously didn't, nothing looked great last year unless you get very specific with like slot wide splits, kind of like I just did for your car, Kobe Myers. But obviously the opportunity cost is a little bit higher here to be saying, yes, I'm just banking on the fact that JSN is going to move outside and the wide route splits are going to hold. Then he's going to become a totally different player that we saw last year. I do think it's possible. I always think that's possible when we're talking about a talented college prospect and a new play caller. Lots of things can happen. You're too wide. receiver honestly kind of checks a lot of the boxes in terms of this is the type of player the

market might be down on that has a better chance for a breakout than we then anyone might be giving a credit for um so yeah i've been slowly talking myself into jsn this year i i don't i haven't gone out and traded for him yet but i'm the the needle is moving ever so slightly towards json certainly more towards jsn for me than towards dk make well i i i i don't I think some of that is price adjacent as well. He's you have to spend just that much more for D.K. But I think just the overall upside week to week with DK is insane. If he just learns how to catch a ball in the end zone,

if he just master that very important part of his job, I think it would be a lot better for all of us. In terms of JSN, look, he's lost value, right? I think if people were really concerned about his breakout and how it would affect the other wide receivers, he wouldn't have lost as much as he did. think it would be reflected in his price and it's not so i'm not and i just saw this comment uh from dynasty barry 83 shout out to you we'll see what grubbs offense looks like deployed at the

nfell i agree we talked about this i yelled about this and really talked about it but i yelled about this when i brought it up but let's not forget that grubs isn't the only guy one of the players that ryan is going to talk to you about is in an offense with a guy who's never called plays I think the only time he's ever called plays was like a 2008 playoff game. He's not a primary play caller. We love the Falcons offense this year. Got news for you.

Doesn't call plays. There's so many first-time coordinators in the NFL this year that you kind of have to just be buying in to what we know and have information from where they're coming from, what systems did they come from, and what are their tendencies for what we have.

We can only work on what we have because if we were scared of first-time coordinators, this year would be a very bad year for you to be picking a lot of our favorite teams. So I want to take the opportunities. I want to take the chances, especially knowing how much Gino Smith just yolo's the football down the field. I also want to quickly add on that. I'm sorry.

I know we're so far afield right now. Do it. Do it. Look, we're already here. But yes, when it comes to coordinator changes, yes, there are always going to be certain ones where we say, okay, Zach Robinson from. the Sean McVay tree. Let's go. Wheels up, lean into the upside, lean into the uncertainty. But that also should be true with the guys who have no experience who aren't coming from like

a sexy coaching tree. Right. Last year in August, I remember very clearly all of Twitter was clowning on Jonathan Gannon and by extension Drew Petzig, who had never called plays anywhere and nobody had any idea what his offense was going to look like. Of the teams that overperformed last year, the Cardinals have got to be up there, right? Both in fantasy and in terms of just how inspired the offense looked on an NFL football field, right? We have no idea what any of these new coordinators, new head coaches, are really going to do for their teams.

A lot of this we kind of put on post hoc, like, oh, of course, like this coordinator came and of course the offense was going to get better. We really don't know. So what I would suggest is lean into the uncertainty. I don't think that the Seahawks are being discounted because of Grubb. I think people mostly lean more positive, at least over what it was last year in that scenario. But if anything crops up like that later in the offseason, honestly, the Chargers are probably the best example right now of we think. And I knew that would trigger Thomas.

of we think that the Greg Roman offense cannot do anything for fantasy that I don't know. I think having certainty, especially on the downside of these situations, is a little bit misguided and can cause you to miss out on value. First off, I know that Greg Roman's offense can do wonders for fantasy. I do not think it's going to do wonders for Quentin Johnston. And also, I just think they're going to run the ball 600 times. And then you just adjust the offensive. With what running backs?

With what running backs? They will sign Kenyon Drake, Levion Bell, Melvin Gordon, anybody with a pulse except for the guy that you want them to use. Melvin Gordon, that's what I've been experienced. He would. I'm excited. He would do it before they used someone we actually cared about. But I digress.

What I don't think it can do is I don't think it can sustain wide receiver high-end production within his offense because he runs the fullback on nine routes and runs three wide receivers into each other every other play just to set that record straight. Because someone's going to come at me and be like, oh, he's been like a top five offense or a top 10 offense everywhere he's gone. I get it. Not here. Look, I just want to say on the wide receivers thing, yes, I understand there have not been. been a lot of very productive wide receivers in the Greg Roman offense recently. But if you get the word wide receiver out of your mind and you replace it with slot player, Mark Andrews has run out of the slot a lot under the Greg Roman offense.

Fair. Fair. We can talk ourselves into that for Ladd-McConkey, right? That's my whole Ladd-McConkey case, honestly. I'm all in on Ladd. Okay. Okay. No.

I'm just saying they might only throw the ball 225 times. Like they might throw the ball maybe like 300 and like stretching it. You don't think that the Chargers with Justin Herbert throw the ball more times than Greg Roman was with Lamar Jackson. I am sucking all of these attempts out of the offense on all these dropbacks where he's scrambling. I really don't think the Chargers end up with more. Okay. Quite obviously. Okay.

Let's be real here. But at the same time, I still expect them to not let Justin Herbert air the ball out. And if they do, I do love Ladd McConkey and whatever bum-ass tight end they're going to use in his system. But Greg Roman does not change his colors. Like, he is who he is. Like, we're getting into, like, way off topic in the weeds of, like, offensive system calling. But if you watch Greg Roman's development from Buffalo to San Francisco and into Baltimore, he don't change. he runs the same

schick. They are going to practice some play all right for two straight weeks. It's going to be like a double guard pull with like a late backside tackle pull with like a cross combat and over. They'll practice that play for two weeks. They'll run at one time.

Grave's going to be like, bang, told you I'm good. All right, let's run the same six passing plays that we've been running all year. We don't need anything new. That run play was sick though. It's going to look great on film. That's just what he does.

I don't think Herbert's going to avoid this either. So I just want to put it out there. All right. Just settle the Greg Roman thing. I don't want to talk about him anymore. He upsets me. I'm not over it. Okay.

He ruined Baltimore for years. Ryan, another player you think has legitimate dynasty value in trades and drafts right now. All right, man, I'll, fine. I'll pull us out of this. I don't want to, you hit 7,500 subscribers on YouTube, and I don't want to lose any talking about Greg Roman anymore, okay? Fair enough.

You know, I was just hearing big slot. That's all I heard. Oh, stop. Stop. Get out. Yes, sir. I love it, Lucas. I love that Ryan threw in post hoc and my brain went to mush because I was just

waiting for the Tua. No. I was really, I heard post hoc and then it just went, like I couldn't think either, Lucas. Like, in the last 10 minutes of debates, I was just thinking about Tua. I don't know why. Oh, okay. I was. I was somehow not online for like the two days that the Hawk Tua thing was happening.

I came back onto social media yesterday or whatever and I see like one tweet that vaguely references it. And I literally looked at it and I said, did they just spell T.J. Hawkinson and Tua wrong? Like what what's going on here? Then I did some investigations and realized that I clearly missed the latest internet phenomenon. Right. Still not entirely sure what it was all about. But okay, I will break, okay, I'll take us out of this. The player that I think is a value right now,

I'll lose us some more subscribers because our current subscribers have probably heard me talk about this guy enough, but I have new things to say about him and I want to say them. Will Levis, baby. All right, round eight on Dynasty Data Lab right now, the QB25. Just in terms of dropbacks per game last year. 32.4. That was 28th among quarterbacks. Over the past three seasons, new head coach Brian Callahan's

offenses have ranked top 10 in both neutral pass rate, pass rate over expectation, any of the pass rate stats. Callahan loves to air it out. He will not shut up about how much he wants to air it out. Just go check out the coach speak index on Twitter. There's a new Brian Callahan statement every single week about how he can't wait to air it out to his running backs and to Chigo Conquo and to all the new wide receivers they brought in. It very clearly, this is going to be much closer to a pass first team than it was last year. And when Will Levis dropped back and when he threw the ball, it was at least intriguing

results for fantasy, right? So over a 20% deep ball rate last year, ranked first in the league. So over 20% of the time when Will Levis dropped back, he was throwing the ball more than 20 air yards downfield. That's amazing for fantasy. That is the James Winston that we've been dreaming of for years since that dream was taken from us. Also ranked first in hero throw rate, which we chart at Fantasy Points data, which is basically

just a QB making a throw above and beyond the play that like really made it in like in crunch time. So I just want to see what Will Levis can do in a past first offense. I am so far in at a round eight dynasty ADP. This is one of the only players you can draft this late, who has a legitimate chance to vault up into the top two or three rounds of startups next year. I understand it can just as easily go horribly wrong and go the exact opposite direction. This is a very wide range of outcomes. This is not a player with value and solution. Understand that when you're shopping around, when you're looking at your roster and know whether this is a roster that can that can or should be taking that type of risk.

But yeah, oh my God, I love Will Levis and Fantasy. Right. And like you said, we just talked about the Grubbs thing. We can talk about the Calhian thing too because he was out there in Cincinnati, right? And we all love that offense. Zach Taylor was the primary play caller for those. Bengals teams. We don't know how his offense is going to translate over in Tennessee. All we have is hope. And with

the Great White Mayo Hope in 2024, we need to hold tight on to it. Because I'm all in, too. He's also a quarterback that you can, at price if you're drafting, if you want to take him as your QB2 and then piggyback him with like around 11

Derek Carr, who costs $51 million against the cap next year to play somewhere else, you get a little bit of safety to make up for a mistake. if Will Levis does turn out to be in fact ass. So there's definitely ways that you can back up your future terrible decision if it turns out that way. Yeah.

Lucas. Now on his 20.8% deep ball throw rate, how many of that's because he overthrew his wide receiver? I think of that. Hey. I just, I want a little bit clarification here. Okay.

I, you know what? I don't have the answer. I don't have the answer for you right now, Lucas. But I will say right now for an article I'm working on, I am just looking at basically catchable throw rate, 20 plus yards downfield among quarterbacks.

Maybe you'll get to that tonight. Probably not. If Scott Barrett keeps asking me to make charts for him after the show, that's what I'm going to be doing. But at some point, I will have a take on the will-leveless deep ball accuracy, and you can victory lap on me against what I just said. I mean, it's tough to be upset. about a round take quarterback somebody going qv 25 like that that's really tough to have like any sort of

strong like oh he's going to flame out sort of takes um i mean at that price though i really like what you said just the potential is definitely there like he doesn't even have to be good and if they just have that increase in volume i mean we saw it with sam how last season like sam how was not good but at one point of time i think he was like qb five or something on the season just because of all the garbage time and all the volume that they gave him until they were just like, all right, we can't keep watching this product at this point. He was empty calories quarterback stats. He was the ramen noodles of quarterback fantasy production.

They didn't really give you anything truly, but he filled what you needed. You know what I mean? And you could trade me some ramen noodles. Yes, you could. Lucas talked me into trading him away a couple of times. And I thank him for that every single day. put money in my pocket. Lucas, another player before we get to Mike's final.

All right. So the player I want to talk about is Quentin Johnston. Just kidding. Because I know that you'd mute me. I'd be off the show. I wouldn't have another week. That's okay. I made an emergency three person overlay because I wasn't sure

if one of us not going to name who was going to make it. I made emergency three person overlays. And you bet your ass. You would have been yeated to the curve. if you dare brought up Quentin Johnson on this pod as someone to buy at least I'm not bringing up Jerry Judy so the player that I actually do want to buy Deontay Johnson I've another player I've been saying it all off season it's somebody who's not priced right right now I I don't understand why where the wide receiver 48's coming from I don't think that there are

18 wide receivers that came in in this draft class that are better than Deontay John that pushed him down from the wide receiver 30 range into something that that is this late, it just isn't clicking with me right now. He's still top 30 and yards per route run, even though he was banged up early on the season, even though he had just absolutely horrendous quarterback play. I believe the Steelers were in the bottom five in terms of first down percentage on throws for the season. Like that's not good.

It's not an indictment necessarily on the wide receivers, although that can definitely help, but like, that's, that's absolutely terrible. And if Russell Wilson is just even a replacement level player, getting back to warp, then that'll, that's going to be an increase just for the Steelers. Yes, I know he's not a Steelers now, going to Carolina, which was also really bad in terms of their first down percentage for throws, but they're bringing in a new offensive coordinator. And Tampa was middle of the pack, but middle of the pack is. good for somebody that's going at wide receiver 48,

get them back up into the top 30 of wide receivers, and that's an immediate increase on the value that you're putting in. And once again, somebody in 10th round who is super cheap. Yeah, we're pro Deonté on this year pod through and through. It's in our blood. We're mandated to talk about them at every opportunity. When we set shows up like this,

God, do I need Bryce Young to ever pay off in a league that Mike and I are in? that started him and I talking in the first place as him and I conducted a trade that was scorned by one individual so poorly, it made Mike and I friends. And I'll forever cherish Bryce Young for that, but also get your shit together, dude. Mike, one more player, the eighth player, if I can do math correctly today, that we told the people that we would give them that have actual value right now and why for their leagues. So first off, I think Ryan is underselling his social media following and his acumen for following trends. Because not only did he do the hawk that he threw in there, he also brought up Will Levis, who was trending a few weeks before for very different reasons other than football. And if you know, you know. So Ryan, the gigs up in, we know.

We know that you're very at those social media streets. You're locked in. I got one. We've been doing a lot of. of dirt cheap kind of guys, like kind of gross ones. I'm going to give you one that cost a ton, but I still desperately want to buy them for my team. And it's C.D. Lamb.

If I look at Warp from week seven through the rest of the season last year when they kind of figured out what they were going to do with this offense, CD Lamb was such a warp monster, even in six-point passing touchdown leagues, where essentially to make this easy for you, if this was a Start 10 league, which it is that I'm looking for warp, You could have essentially two managers who had DJ Moore on both sides starting as their wide receiver one side. The guy who had CD Lamb essentially was starting 11 every single week. DJ Moore had a very good finish to the end of the year, but CD Lamb doubled him up in Warp over that time.

It's a two to one. It's the easiest math you could ever do. C.D. Lam is by far and away the number one player in Worf last year just during that time span. Ciddy Lamb is such a cheat code and nobody really values him appropriately, right? He goes around the range of Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase and it's like, oh, pick whoever your dynasty wide receiver one is. The difference between those two,

we've never seen what Cidey Lamb did last year from him. So we still have to project that at some point maybe Jamar Chase has got that whole passing attack to himself. Maybe T. Higgins moves on. Joe Burrow has nothing but eyes for Jamar Chase and you're just going to throw him the same amount of ridiculous targets that C.D. Lamb had. C.D. Lamb actually did it. We got to witness it in person, and it's almost like nobody cares. Nobody's like, okay, you're in the wide receiver one conversation now.

He's by far and away the wide receiver one. And it's not even close. And I still think we're at a point in Dynasty where if you had a Jamar Chase, you can send him for C.D. Lamb and just add just something extra, just a little, just a little. just a little and there are crazy people out there who might even go i'll give you the extra you can take cd lamb and i'll take your jimarchase that's like how brainwash the community is but as far as actual production i want cd lamb on my team like immediately and i still think it's something at the top it's so weird to call them a buy when you're in the first round of a dynasty startup in super flex league

but he can actually break your league he can just break it by himself and Thomas, we're looking at a six-point passing touchdown league where I've done extensive research about how well quarterback score and just how valuable they are. You and I both love to just keep hoard and just like hold people's feet to the fire and they don't understand how Superflex works. Yeah. When I look at this and I go, man, C.D. Lamb is even more valuable than pick your favorite best quarterback, Jalen Hertz, Josh Allen. Dak Prescott, who was throwing Cedley Lamb, the football, who was the number one quarterback. during that time. It's insane what CD Lamb could actually do to your league.

So go get CD Lamb on your team easily. Do whatever it takes. Worth the price. I was 100%. Go trade your, your Breeze Halls, go trade your upper tier running backs, add on to your favorite tight end. Right? Also, while we mention it, the 3-9 DAC in Superflex,

what are we doing? You can get CD-LAM draft Kyler and then go and get DAC right now, and it's truly disgusting. We're just giving up elite starts. It's truly gross. Look, I absolutely love that. And it's funny that you mention Cid Lamb. When we come back from our final break here,

I'm going to give a bonus player. And no, it is not Justice Hill. I did see that comment in the chat earlier. Don't put that hurt on me. It's not Justice Hill. I have one more bonus player. We're going to get some more final thoughts. We're going to answer some questions.

As I mentioned, no 5 and 5. today. No, Jacob. I'm sorry. It's on me. I didn't have time to whip one up. I don't know how he does it with his lawyering. I just assume lawyers work half the time they say they do, because they're lawyers and they lie a lot. But when we come back from this last break, we're getting final thoughts, a bonus player, answer some of your questions of the chat that you might have for Mike. And we are going to roll out in to, well, it's way beyond sunset. Out in the evening like night rider, sit tight. I realize I'm out of data myself with a night writer reference, but that's okay. The young ones can Google it.

Look, my bonus player, and it's nice that you mentioned C. Lam, and I got to talk about DAC because Brandon Cooks is free. Wide Receiver 83 on Dynasty Data Lab pick 208. He had a 0.808 in warp last year in the six point passing touchdown, 0.5 10 premium settings that I've been talking about the whole show. Christian Kirk, one of my favorites, 0.8.8.000. 7-5 warp wide receiver 39 going at pick 97 obviously he did not have a phenomenal yards per target a great yards per route run i understand he still gave you a 10.8 points per game on a 10 expected fantasy points per game however it is his spike

weeks that matter and let me tell you why eight games in twenty twenty three he gave you dk metcalf or better production at his current pick 208. Games over, he had seven games over 14 PPR points, one week winning week of 32.3. Half of the year he gave you D.K. Metcalfe production. And guess what? The only thing that changed in Dallas really is Michael Gallup is out the door.

This team is going to throw the ball a lot, a lot like they did last year. And what you're able to get at pick 200, And 8 is similar enough on a week-to-week basis, just based off last year, who started, you know, injured training camp, came out and still managed to produce for you. Yes, he left some turds on your doorstep and set it on fire every once in a while. I got news for you. Your studs can do that too. You're getting a final flex piece for biweeks and injuries on a week-to-week basis on this offense can give you D.K.

Matt-K. calf production in the 14 to 16 points per game range in this offense. And yes, they drafted a receiver in I believe the sixth round. I do not care. Tolbert, like Mike Tomlin, I do not care. Brandon Cooks is an established veteran that has produced at multiple places, and he produced last year. He's a steal at pick 208 for my bonus player.

For the eight players that have legitimate value that you can apply. to your dynasty leagues. Mike, you're an absolute goat. If you're not already subscribed over there at South Harmon, well, you should me. Brother, tell you about three-leg Greg. I refuse. I refuse to believe in Greg Dulcich.

You cannot make me drink that cult Kool-Aid on Greg Dulcich, who I believe is already hurt again to the point where Scott Barrett is now touting like a 24 or 25 year old tight end on the Broncos that I've never heard of. So Dulcich is done for me. Not for me. Cook's claim second year in offense is going to make a difference. Yeah, it should.

I mean, that's definitely something a veteran should be saying to the media for this team. We normally answer Discord questions, but I didn't reach out and get any. So I'm going to get some final thoughts from the table, especially for Mike here. And if we get a question that pops in, we will answer that as well.

Mike, guest of honor, friend of mine, cannot wait to hang out with you at the Expo and the Shithouse. It is going to be a truly phenomenal time. But let's talk South Harmon fantasy football and everything happening over there because it is a lot.

It is a lot all the time. Your YouTube channel is bustin' bustin. Let's talk South Harmon fantasy football. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. I got to say at least tonight, though, just a recap. There was a lot of good buys on here. And a lot of the ones that were listed, I go plug it into the warp tool and I kind of look at finishes, right? Like, your last one for Brandon Cooks, I'm looking at it.

I'm looking at the same thing I was looking for CD Lamb, you know, when that offense changed. And Brandon Cooks is out here finishing above George Pickens and Tyler Lockett, who I mentioned on the show, Cooper Cup, T. Higgins. Jacoby Myers was another real good one by Ryan. I know you didn't like him at the start of the show, but we're off air, but I'm in on Jacobi Myers. He's dirt cheap, too. He really fits in that mold. Jackson Smith and Gigbud, Drake London. Brandon Cook's out here just gaping all these guys.

Just done. Just out the door. So Cooks is a fantastic one. Jacobi Myers was a fantastic one. Lucas, you can't find a bigger, like, Deontay Johnson's stand than me. It just, it doesn't matter. He could be playing in the CFL next year, and I would still be like, you got to get Deontay Johnson. He's going to make a comeback. It's going to happen. I can't quit him. I can't quit him.

But probably the biggest thing for me, like this whole show, is introducing people to more warp and how it is. I know it's scary. It's a lot of numbers. It's kind of like the first time that I go on to, you know, I go on to the FantasyPoint.com site. I sign up for the data suite. And I'm just like, holy shit. Like, what does this all mean? I'm too smooth-brained. I don't have enough wrinkles to figure this thing out. But eventually, once you start really working through, it you're like wow how does nobody else know about this why do all those casuals in my league the ones thomas and i like to make fun of in dm chats who grade our trades like like we're out here trying to do some sort of collusion even though thomas and i both would love to rip each other's heart out in that league yeah show no mercy right thomas owns my future first like he hopes my team fails horribly i need it to die i need it to die and i hope to win a championship and you can pick at the 112 next year. That's my end goal. But this is some

of the things, especially with WRIP, there's a lot of people who don't know about it, and a lot of people who don't want to take the time. And I'm telling you, if you just put a little bit of effort into it, especially with any kind of advanced data, you can find all these stupid, easy edges to just go out and you're going to look like

the greatest fantasy football player, whether that's redraft, best ball, dynasty, whatever you're into. You're going to look like the greatest one ever, and your friends are going to playing against you. They're going to hate it because you don't miss a lot. Now, we're inevitably going to make mistakes. There's going to be some guys where, yeah, man, I'm probably projecting to finish in that wide receiver two range for warp, and then they go out

and they get injured or they get suspended or they just have a terrible season. We found out some offensive coordinator is absolutely Luke Getziesk and just ruins teams. Or, you know, Thomas's favorite, maybe the Greg Roman bad for your passing game. And they just ruined. happens. But it really helps just to minimize the massive amount of mistakes that almost the entire community makes with just player takes. Like I like this guy. I don't like this guy. Well, why? Like, what is the difference between the two? And a lot of people do cite stats that don't really matter or stats are kind of antiquated and we try to reinvent the wheel. I think the one thing for War for me is it just cut through all the nonsense. I don't have to have player takes. I can just

look at strictly numbers, players in the graft, and that's probably the one of the best things about the multi-year is looking at five years and not having player names. I'm just looking at finishes for individual players, and then it's on me to kind of do a realistic projection on where they're going to finish. So if you haven't checked out Warp yet, I do encourage you go check out what we got going on, especially at South Harmon. But Warp is really coming fast. It's really coming fast. There's a lot of places starting to pick it up. There's a lot of place is doing a lot of really good work with it. And I think it's kind of like chat GPT.

Like if you're not using it at some point, you're going to regret not using it, not using a little bit AI. Eventually it's going to take over for everybody. It will all be slaves anyways and we won't have a choice. Yeah, SkyNet's coming for us. SkyDed is coming for us. What you're saying is warp is kind of the Skynet of fantasy football statistics. It might be.

It might be. And I think John Connor might be rolling over right now. Well, I was going to say it, does that make you, John Connor, have you come back in time to preach us on the warp tool and how it applies? I think that might be it. I'm probably more like Miles from Terminator 2. Right? Yeah.

Yeah. Like it's going to end with me hyperventilating, like holding onto a dead man switch. You know, like begging the SWAT team to please leave because I'm going to die and drop this. Like I'm more like Miles. As you also introduce the Wolverine meme picture holding as you're looking at, at Deontay Johnson before the finger comes down on the on the trigger. No man, I think you're right.

Like I said, I talked about this on the show last week and the week before that, that warp is becoming a more of a day-to-day usage for me. And if you're wondering at fantasy points, yes, I am fighting tooth and nail to have ours updated and really ready to roll out here. I just need to be able to fight. up the ranks of necessity at the website as we are constantly growing at fantasy points.com.

And I think this is another thing by Dynasty Barry. Take the names out of the equation. I think you're right. 100%. Duwock 325 says, remember Game Genie, that's South Harmon and Cooper's Warped for Dynasty. And I got to tell you, it is right up there, mate. It is the chronis zen of fantasy right now. Now, truly amazing.

Ryan, you have a ton of stuff going on yourself. As you said, Scott doesn't let you go outside ever. He just has you locked away working on new project after new project. What are the next ones? Yeah, so hopefully tomorrow, I think I was told tomorrow. Tomorrow morning, we have a Scott Fishbowl strategy article dropping for anyone who's in the Scott Fishbowl. kind of going with warp, I use a very kind of stripped down version of it, admittedly, because I am not smart enough to put warp together from the Scott Fishbowl in a few days.

But I take you through all of the strategy, all of kind of how the positional values change with the Scott Fishbowl scoring. So if you are in the Scott Fishbowl, make sure you check that out. One of my favorite drafts to do every year, it's just very fun to change. change up the scoring rules. It's absolutely insane this year, kind of more so than any year I can remember. It was definitely a choice to put in all the return yardage bonuses in the same season that the NFL is completely changing their kickoff rule was a lot of fun to write and kind of

theory craft for. So even if you're not in the Scott Fish Bowl, I think you still might get something out of the article just in terms of how do you approach a new or an unfurricular? familiar scoring system and where can you find the edges in that, both in terms of player value and also in terms of draft strategy. So definitely check that out. Make sure you're following me on Twitter at Ryan J. underscore Heath so that you don't miss it. It'll be up on fantasy points.com tomorrow.

Love that, man. You guys, you and Scott also doing the tandem articles, absolutely insane. It is no wonder you're not allowed outside to touch grass because you're out here moving the needle. weekend and week out. Lucas, you yourself are constantly working on data tools and new ways to improve things. Do we have an update?

Not yet. We're still working. Unfortunately, just can't seem, as soon as I hit one roadblock and one, I go work on another until I hit a roadblock day. I go back and forth. But we got some things cooking. There could be some interesting things coming soon.

Just a little bit easier ways to take some this advanced data and actually find the usefulness in it. We live in a world nowadays where we have no shortage of data. It has saturated our brains to where numbers just don't make sense at points in times because there are too many to look at at once. And if it's not something that's obvious, then we just move on with life. So that's what I'm working on.

And then actually trying to stay in town for more than one week at a time. So yeah, that'll be fun. Got two more weeks, then I'm done. Love that. Love that. Traveling's tough, man, but you're sicking it out with us every week for content. We love that about you and love that for you. Look, my final thoughts are always the same.

Fantasy football is supposed to be fun. If it's not anymore, stop playing. If you don't have fun in a league you're in, leave, right? Do not tie yourself down to leagues that you do not enjoy anymore. There's no shame in it. You got to go. Be nice about it. Pay your future dues if you don't have picks.

Don't be a dick and eat all your picks and leave anyway. But if you are not happy in your leagues, it is trust me. The other 11 people, we can tell. So it might just be best to find an absolute sicko that adores orphan leagues. They are out there. And as an orphan, I got to tell you, I appreciate those people, just adopting teams left, right, and center. Remember to check in on your loved ones, even if you are not sure that they need it. If you haven't already, hit like, hit subscribe, hit the notification bell.

All of that goes a long way in helping us to our road to 10,000 YouTube subscribers. Hit 7,500 on this show tonight. So Mike, shout out to you and bring in some of those South Harmon fans over here. We love and appreciate it. We love and appreciate every single one of you. Without you, there's no show. so with that I want to remind everyone that clear eyes and full hearts never lose

in your best days goddamn they're always spent tilting good night everybody what what