Fantasy Football Daily - Actionable Week 2 Dynasty Reactions And Advice

Episode Date: September 18, 2024

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I'm Thomas Tipple. That's Jacob Sanderson. We're one half of the hosts of the Dynasty Points podcast. And this week we have is Justin Herbert going to continue to be this putrid forever? And are we believing that Jameson Williams is truly breaking out? Tom holds my feet to the fire on whether I still believe in Trevor Lawrence. And I get my cardio in by running a victory laugh on Brock Bowers over Sam LaForda, plus many, many, many other things. on this week's Dynasty Points. What is up? It's Dynasty Points. We are grateful for every download, like, follow, subscribe.

It means a lot to us. We are enjoying an insane insanity run. Thanks to everyone listening and downloading. You can leave your comments below. Let us know what you do and don't like. You all have a voice, especially if you are in the Discord with us talking Dynasty. I mean,

that community is growing. every single day without you guys. There's no us. So shout out and much love to you all. With that being said, week two, I mean, we're actually seeing trends here. We have seen some big overcorrections that we're going to talk about. We have some stuff that we need to either believe it or not and know how to act accordingly. That's what we are doing today.

We are also going to check back in on five backfields that we think we have seen some shifts and have a little bit more information, and maybe they'll be just a little bit less annoying. Don't worry, I didn't include Denver because I didn't want another half-hour discussion on that terrible, god-awful backfield that I want no part of. So we're going to cruise past that. Of course, I am your host.

Tonight, I am Thomas Tip. You can find me at El Nostra Thomas joining me. We have the full crew this week. We have Jacob Sanderson, at Jacob Sanderson, Lucas Gilbert at L. Gilbert F and Ryan Heath at Ryan J underscore for Keith, full team. And as we have been doing over the last couple of weeks, I want a quick take from week two from everyone.

Just what did we observe? What do we feel? How are we viving? What are our teams like? I'll kick it off with Jacob. Yeah, I mean, I wrote about this right in the immediate aftermath of week one. And I mean, my take way was kind of just depressing. Like I just listed like a bunch of different reasons why NFL games suck right now.

and I will try and if you want to check that out, if you want to just be depressed and have like the, you know, if you want to listen to the, what was it? Someone played something. They had a tweet with like an injured roster. They said someone play something in the way by Nirvana. If you want like your like self-harm music read along,

go check that on a thing about thing. This is the offshoot of that, which is I do think what we've seen from the saints, from the Vikings, from all these supposed scams that I talk about all the time, is that it is possible to beat the quote unquote cover two shell. There are teams out there who are trying to not just win, but to win convincingly and to try to use the regular season,

not just to get from 1 and 0 to 2 and 0, but to try and measure themselves up to push the limits of what they can do, trying to actually build a program, build a contender. And I think that this gap between halves and have knots is getting so stark, right? teams are having to test their medal against defenses that are taking the easy things away more and more, that I just don't think that we're going to have that much longer where NFL owners are willing to withstand the Shane Waldron's of the world that are willing to be accepting of mediocrity. I hope that they look at what teams like the Seahawks did, right, where they go and pluck an offensive coordinator out of college and say, oh, they're finding creative ways to actually scheme the ball into their best players' hands to play into what the defense, wants to take away, but do it anyways, to be the aggressor, to set the tone. That's what I want

to see teams do more. Maybe it's not going to happen in this year, but I think that there's an accelerationist, night as darkest before the dawn element to where the gap between the teams that are willing to set the game of football on their own terms and are willing to play the game that's handed to them is expanding. And hopefully that pushes more and more teams to try and join the ranks of the halves in future years. I mean, shout out the saints who are just, figuring out how to absolutely dominate everyone. They play against. Ryan,

quick thoughts. Yeah, so I wrote about this and touched on this in my five stats to know article on fantasy points that you can go check out. But kind of the biggest trend I'm tracking through the first two weeks is the running back position from a fantasy perspective has just been incredible, right? So right now through two weeks, we have 12 running backs that are averaging at least 17 expected fantasy points for

game. For those that don't know, that's just kind of an arbitrary metric I like to use for who's like a bell cow every down running back and who isn't, right? Or at least who's scoring like one in fantasy. So we have 12 running backs doing that last year and the year before through the first two weeks. We only had six running backs each year getting that type of workload. So really the every down RV1 type of workload, it's twice as common, right? now, as we've seen over the past couple years, the last time it was anywhere close to this through the first few weeks was 2021, which coincidentally is the last one that kind of the elite running back or robust running back strategies in fantasy were actually usable, right?

It's the zero RB guys have been winning a lot the last couple years, but maybe that won't be the case. Obviously, we have a long way to go, but the early signs kind of showed the pendulum swinging back toward the running game, which I think is really interesting and maybe is related to all the covers to stuff that Jacob was touching on. Ryan, remember there was a big shift in defense structure when everyone wanted smaller linebackers, more nickel. And, you know, these offense coordinators are saying, fine, maybe we will start running in. And it's, it's been effective, even though it is nuking quarterback play. Ryan, you and I talked about that the other day in the DMs how like every, every, every, every, one is like receivers are still good running backs are good but quarterbacks and tight ends have died this

year and it's really depressing Lucas I'm going to piggyback off of what Ryan said just a little bit the top five most valuable players of fantasy right now are all running backs and nine out of the top 12 most valuable players of fantasy are running backs that just seems absolutely unheard of so far and as we all expected Baker Mayfield's the most valuable quarterback so I don't know it's it's just been absolute chaos it feels like through two weeks. I am here for it. I am loving it, especially whenever my team's not any good. It's really fun to see other fan bases tilt a little bit.

So I'm here for it. Let's keep it going. Yeah, it's definitely been interesting. If I were to have a takeaway, it's that I beat Ryan twice this week in matchups that I played against him. I'll take one and a half credit because Jacob, you and I absolutely dominated in the Scott Barrett invitation. versus Ryan. And then in the fantasy points,

listener league, I also dominated Ryan in that league as well. So I am liking how it's shaping up. Aside from that, I will say, like I mentioned, the tight ends are dead. Tight ends, it turns out, need upper tier quarterback. That's for one, except

for one, tight end. You doesn't need no upper tier quarterback play. You know what's crazy? To rule them all. One tight end to bind them all. Technically, uh, he still did get good quarterback play because this week, Gardner Minchew look like a top five

quarterback in the NFL. That's how bad this is. Lamar Jackson is like fourth in the league in passing. That's how you know passing is broken. Passing is broken in the NFL in like the worst way. We're going to talk about Herbert today. We're going to talk about Lawrence today because we just, we have to. I can't

not because I make the content here. But it's down. It's just down across the board. It's really depressing. But Mike is sickie balled out. So I don't know. Make that. Take that for what you will.

I don't know. But tight end play right now is definitely looking like it's on the way down. It is scary. We're going to talk about Sam LaPorteur later because we have something that ties in with that. It's not great. So to me that's something I've noticed. This was again another year of tight end is deep this year. And it's already dead after two weeks.

Like stop saying it because it's never true. It's never accurate. So that's been my quick takeaway. and you know if I had to have to give a bonus it's that I'm sad the Ravens I know are already getting missed the playoffs because they're oh and two so I mean that's fun thanks Raiders love that real depressing we're going to take a cut like we're going to take a small break we get in we're jumping right into the believe it or not you're not going to want to miss this if you're new to this bit we have been doing this for full tilt for a long time so it's

going to be fun to kick it off here in week well it's going into week three now of the 24 seasons. So sit tight, quick break. We'll be right back. Look, you dominate your home office and family leagues every year and now it's time to take your game to the next level. The FFPC is the place to play fantasy football every summer. No salary caps, no DFS, new

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of formats. You can even catch Jacob consistently in FFPC drafts and you can go to try to take his money regularly. Drafts fill every day in the summertime. You're going to want to start your pursuit of millions today. Head to myfpc.com for more information. All right, let's dive in. Let's play, believe it or not, because there are some things that have happened. Oh, you know what? I lied to you. We're not going to say we're starting with waiver wires. I mean, I totally skipped an entire little bit of a segment here and that's on me. I am just so excited to get into the next game. What I've asked the guys to do is give us one waiver wire each and we're going to spend

very little time on it because this is Dynasty waiver wires. It's a barren wasteland. So when there is a player, you should go and get them. Jacob, I don't see yours written down. So I do have a bonus if you don't get to him. But I'll, I'll start with Brenton Strange. Five first retar. targets is second on the team in fantasy points per route run is at point three seven he's a second

round pick he's only behind evan ingrom who's on the last year of his contract who also got injured i would spend roughly seven percent in a tight end premium league he's not somebody that i would leave on the waiver wire with how much trevor lawrence targets tight ends he should be rostered right yeah kind of keeping with the gross tight end pickups uh i i would take strange over this one probably but Greg Dulcich guys he he might be alive uh he did just lead the team with eight targets not a lot of production only caught three of them uh but hey his rookie season was pretty productive uh top five by yards for games since 2014 so if he's out there on any dynasty waiver wires i i would yeah love that Lucas so i misread this so i'm doing a very quick pivot to jaylin

Naylor, I mean, people have talked or I was on our show, we've talked about him for a while, know that the community at large has been talking about him. If he is still on your waiver wire, please end that. He is available in some of my leagues. I just went and checked

just to make sure I wasn't pulling that out on my rear end. So if he is still available, make sure you are picking him up. Someone's got to talk about the Chiefs running backs here. I understand it in most deep dynasty leagues, you're probably the only one that's available is Kareem Hunt.

But in some shallower, maybe like home dynasty leagues where there's only 10 bench spots, you might see a few Somaget P. Rines or Carson Steele's on waivers there. And obviously, anybody playing redraft has to consider the Chiefs running backs. My overarching take that I've seen is I think people are way too bearish on the upside of the Chiefs running backs. I've seen a lot of people on Twitter saying, don't bother, it's not worth the hassle. I wrote about them extensively in the Hitchhiker's Guide today. I wrote about a little thread up on Twitter.

We have seen in every year basically that they have had some sort of disruptive event to their backfield. Someone has emerged in the Chief's backfield and put up 17 points per game over a sustained stretch or higher. That started in Damien Williams in 2018 when Kareem Hunt got arrested. He comes in end of season through the playoffs. 2019, they start off in this weird Damien Williams-Lashon-McCoy committee. eventually Williams reestablishes control of that role. He gets a sustained stretch as a feature back, averages up over 20 points per game that season, then, or at least in that suite of games.

Come in 2020, not much happens there. That's the Clyde Levy on Belier. But 2021, that's again where we get Daryl Williams has a stretch at the end of the regular season where he's averaging over 18 points per game. We get Jerich McKinnon averaging RB1 totals in the playoffs again in 2020. where it goes to Jerk McKinnon in that stretch of the fantasy playoffs when he was the total MVP, nothing much of 2023 because, of course, they have Isaiah Pacheco. The Chiefs have just typically played differently when they don't have a rush where they want to hand the ball off to.

In my opinion, and to be clear, this is not me saying, oh, I'm glad Pacheco is hard or anything like that. It's terrible for him personally. But I do think it's actually going to be pretty darn good for the Chief's offense that they're forced to not waste touches on a running back and using the passing game. I expect the PROE to come back up. I expect it to rely on, in my opinion, P-Rine, as that hybrid, going to play all the passing downs, going to play a lot of passing, schemed up stuff on early downs, and be that kind of eight to nine carry, six to seven target type of guy that's consistently been an RB1 in this Andy Reed scheme. Maybe it's not him.

Maybe it's Carson Steele who wound up actually having a really ridiculous receiving production role in college. Maybe they just bring it back with Kareem Hunt. I'm not sure. But I think that in Dynasty Waiverwires, obviously you want to spend aggressively to get any of these guys because your chances of getting a starting running back off waivers and dynasty is like not very high. And in redraft,

I am prioritizing P-Rine first, steal second, but definitely willing to spend up, I think, more than most people are. I think that there's a chance that there's a winner here and it's a big winner. Right. And just shout out that we get to use the P-line once again. Absolutely. Every year we get one more year of the P-line.

It's a good time. Also, Andy Dalton should be added. He should be added. A lot of terrible quarterback play, but it's got to be better than Bryce Young's just, it's over. I didn't put him on the sheet today, but it's, it's bad. It's not, we're about to talk about.

The bar is not very high to be a viable quarterback. Like, it's, you look at what the quarterback production is around the league right now, and yeah, like, Eddie Dund could probably be the quarterback 18. Also, this is probably a good year to be, like, putting running backs and wide receivers

your super flex. Like, it's, it's rough out there. Yeah, agreed. 100% agreed. It is insane. I also, I am just excited to see what Legette can do because you're in seven targets in week one. And you got nothing even though, I mean,

they complete, it's like the lowest amount of yardage per the amount of completions they had. Just terrible. So, um, yeah, I'm excited to see what he can do with like a 40% competent quarterback. We'll see what can happen because we've seen what could happen with the zero

percent competent quarterback. It is just, it's bad, man. I don't know. I feel, I feel, legitimately bad for him. Anyway, let's talk about, believe it or not, I do want to just, we're going to catch up

on some of these. I mean, everyone has just been so good in the comments today. Brian Ford wants to know, when do we start the Christian Watson support group meetings? Hey, we're attending those. That's for you and Ryan. We're on high. And Ryan. Gordon Love comes back.

I meant Brian and Ryan. Oh, I was going to say, damn, don't let me in there. Is Josh Palmer okay? He was never okay. Awful. Sorry, I'll say, I'm Christian Watson. Like, I don't like his archetype of receiver, but there's a lot of his archetype of receiver that I don't like that's having

success this year. So if you buy into that there's like something about this James, Rashid's zone of wide receivers that's like some sort of hack against this defense where you just like run through the zone or whatever, then maybe that's a good reason to get into a Christian Watson. because I think there's some similarities in those profiles. And if there's anything there, I trust LaFleurda to use it. Yeah, let's be real.

We got Malik Willis right now. Not great. Yeah, it's pointless now, but this would be the time. That's a good thing I went in zero or be in every league. Yeah, it's, it's really not great. Hollywood Titans says go voles. So shout out Lucas and Jacob. Big game this weekend.

Big game. Big game. This is probably the biggest, well, no, it's not. It's good the head and hooker season like two years ago. but this is so i was going to say it's the biggest false given a long time that it's the biggest in like two years but it's still very big hey it's enough to get excited about all right let's talk about believe it or not i don't i couldn't think of a better way to kick this off than to piss jacob as much as i possibly could but let's talk about trevor lawrence you're trying to force

you're correct i'm not i'm not trying to force nothing okay just you're trying you said that i'd be what it is ranting about trevor lawrence so you're putting a first of the show sheet how could we Jacob, he's earned it. He's, he's, I'm not juicing. He is doing the juicing for me. He is negative 1.8, um, PROE. He's the highest turnover throw rate of actual starters. He's a 59 QBR on throws past 10 yards.

He's awesome past 20 yards. He's 7.11 for 212 and a touchdown with three hero throws and two turnover worthy throws for a 137.5 rating. He is unreal when he chucks the ball down. the field. He sucks everywhere else. He has an 82.3. He's leaving the pocket early. He's missing wide open receivers in the end zone because he's bailing. I don't know if he's just not trusting the line, not seeing it. I don't know. But Trevor Lawrence, per Greg Rosenthal, is 31st out of 33 and completion percentage over expected. A handful of misses, uh, 8 for 22 when his receivers

has less than three yards of separation, negative. 16.1% completion rate over expected second worse. Scott Barrett over here talking about turnover worthy throw rate in any game since 2022 with a minimum of 20 passes. It's Lawrence this week above like cousins, Levis, Wentz, like everything up and down. Trevor Lawrence has been bad at football this year for a guy being drafted in the second round on everything that isn't a deep ball.

he's not scoring the points you expect like everyone else kind is but the offense is struggling it has been bad and this is just continuing a pattern and even as much Jacob is going to go well you watch the games he looks really good no I'm just going to read the stats like he's 14th and EPA per play this year he's literally the top half and he's played against the Cleveland Brown's defense

in a monsoon he was third and adjusted EPA in week one like if you want I don't I think CPOE is a garbage staff but if you like CPOE I can composite it with EPA And then here's here's where he is. So he's down at, okay, so when you composite it together, he comes down at 22nd. Here's his group, right? I'll read out everyone from 19 to 25.

Aaron Rogers, Matt Staffer, to a tagovilova, Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott. Like, a lot of good quarterbacks in that range. I, or two games. QBR is 66.7 on throws at the line of scrimmage, 74.5 between throws from zero and nine, and the 59 mentioned on throws between 10 and 19.

that's woefully bad. And again, bailing from wide open. Those are the three. That's everything we have in the fantasy points data suite. I even gave him his flowers at over 20 yards. He's been bad when you drafted in the second round. Those are the important. Yeah, I mean, I don't know.

No quarterback has been good. I just like, to me it seems like he's clearly like a part of the all quarterback suck, like trend. Like it's not been pretty. But I don't, I don't know. I don't see anything that's like totally bad.

It's just he's been the exact same. that he's been in his downturns the last two years. He's just, we, I just, we got to get to a point. Yeah. And I said the same thing about Burrow.

He's just in that tier of quarterback that doesn't provide enough weekly to hold up to his, quote, like his, his praise. It's just at a point now, right? Yeah. I mean,

we should all just, we should all just, what are we looking for, Darnold and Derek Carr, you know, and that's, that's our answer to, what do I say on this show every off season.

That's exactly what I say every off season. it is i do every year but no it's like it's legitimate because we get the reason the reason the reason the reason i pose this is because i get asked constantly in our discord and in twitter dms what do we do like this is just expected he goes on insanity runs for three to four games usually about the mid tier of the season but the team is regressing with peterson as the coach he's got weapons and he looks like again he just doesn't trust his his his his offensive line. There was a play I was describing with Ryan. We talked about

there's a clean pick play. No one was at all pressuring Trevor. He bails, rolls left, ends up throwing it out of the back of the end zone. Brian Thomas Jr. is just sitting in the middle of the field, just ready? And we have someone asked is Trevor Maddoch, I have no idea at all.

But he's just not getting used. I don't know. Everything about it is weird, but he himself is not playing well, in my opinion. I would not. I guess. From a fantasy perspective, I guess, I would just add, there's like one quarterback that is not either in one of these like McShanahan offenses or in, or is like a hyper mobile guy that has actually had fantasy success over the last couple of years sustained. And it's DAC Prescott, essentially, with the highest pass rate over expected in the league. Who was cheaper than Lawrence?

So that's kind of what it takes to be like even Patrick Mahomes hasn't been good for fantasy. I agree with Jacob's thoughts that maybe now they decide to air it out a little bit more with Pacheco out. But yeah, it's I don't even know if I just think that we have kind of in quarterback land, we've kind of divorced a lot between what is like a good fantasy quarterback like in terms of who could I be drafting in the second round of my dynasty startup versus. who quote unquote good quarterback as we just normally talk about it. But yeah, I think Lawrence just kind of hits like the worst of both edges here where, yeah, all the mistakes and the turnovers and stuff have been there. And also, yeah, there's just kind of no reason to ever think this is going to work for fantasy.

No, I mean, you look at the guys right now. Like here's the top, here's your top 10 scoring quarterbacks in fantasy football right now. I mean, this is obviously ridiculously volatile since it's two weeks, but Baker Mayfield with Liam Cohen from the McVay Tree, Carr with Clint Kubiak from the Shanahan Tree, Kyle and Murray, Mobile, Jane Daniels, Mobile, Lamar Jackson, Mobile, Allen, Mobile, Hertz, Mobile, Anthony Richardson, Mobile. We got Gino Smith, kind of his own little Ryan Grubb college thing, and then we've got Sam Darnel of Kevin O'Connell.

So basically, we got like pocket quarterbacks with the offensive coordinators that we think are the sharpest in the league. and we have rushing quarter. So, I mean, if that's, if you're looking for, like, the actionable thing in Dynasty, like, this is what, I get super annoyed about a lot of the stuff because we, like Ryan was saying, like, very much conflates, like a lot of people's opinions on these dudes in,

um, dynasty versus versus how people view them in real life. But like, Dynasty perspective, like, I'm looking at my top rostered quarterbacks right now in over two X of leagues that are starters. And it's like, Lamar, Kyler, Watson, Gino and Darnold, which is either like cheap guys right now that you can just hopefully turn fantasy points out of

so you're going better for Donald and Gino than Watson. And then Kyler and Lamar, who hopefully are just going to run enough that they can power their way through this quarterback epidemic. Yeah, it's not fun really investing in like any single one of these guys, even the only ones right now. I'm sure things will even out over time. Like we're two weeks in.

Nobody plays the preseason anymore to a degree. But yeah, certainly, like if you need a quarterback right now, I mean, I don't know, just trade for Geno Smith or Sam Darnold or Derek Carr or Baker Mayfield seems like a reasonable enough move. But that's that's the take that I wanted to eventually get here. And I know rain game, sure, fine guys playing the rain. Every soon you can find a Trevor Lawrence drop comp, sure, a lot of quarterbacks have that problem. I mean, I screamed about it with Lamar Jackson for years too. I get it. Right.

But we hold these guys to a standard if they're getting very. drafted that high. My point is, is when does it get better and when does he meet round two? And when do we, to me, he's been in this tour. Also shout out to a hope you get better, buddy. Going on the IR right move. Happy to see the right move getting made. Let's just, let's just be honest. But when does Trevor Lawrence get to get put in that like Jared Goff round four tier and out of this round two tier is really is really what I was wondering because I needed something out of him. And now we're getting to a point where people asking if in redraft if I should drop Trevor Lawrence and just play Derek Carr.

And I'm like, honestly, I don't, I can't tell you not to right now. So if you're holding the bags and dynasty still, I don't know, man. I don't know, I don't know what else to tell you, Lucas. I mean, you all are absolutely crushing all. I don't think it's necessarily that he's been bad. I think it's just where you draft him, but certain expectations and where he win the actual NFL draft and how he was anointed as the next. generational prospect, the best prospect we've seen since Andrew Luck, yeah, yeah, yada.

It puts these expectations that he should be in the elite tier of pocket passers. And he's not necessarily, you know, one of the top five pocket passers in the league, but he's, he's fine. That's what I'm saying. If he's your quarterback one, he's not helping you win right now. If he's in your super flex, he's barely helping you win at all. and you just want more of somebody that you have seen have a high draft capital attached to them from the day that they entered the league from the day that they entered college.

I don't think the part of that is, so I think the last part of what you said is very true, like about the value to your lineup. I don't think that the other part is true. His ADP this year in seasonal was like QB 16. He wasn't being drafted as a fantasy starter this year. His dynasty ADP obviously is higher than that because what you're paying for, is you're paying for longevity where he's in no danger of losing his job anytime soon and you're

going to get that. So like to me, those were actually like pretty, like it's pretty clearly aligned basically when you look at Lauren from this applies to Herbert off also. He was drafted, like just going straight up undrafted in some seasonal leagues and obviously secured a lot of dynasty value. So I think it's like a different thing where going into the season, the fantasy market at large, all basically was saying with their actions between dynasty drafts and between seasonal drafts. We don't think these guys are going to score that many points this year. And we think it's worthwhile to draft them in the second round or third round, whatever,

because of their sustained value as a quarterback in Super Flex Dynasty. And so the counter to that, which I somewhat agree with, but not quite as passionately, as like what Tom always says is like, well, don't pay for longevity at quarterback, right? pay up for the actual lead producers or just pay down for the cheaper, shorter term guys who are going to produce similarly. But why I'm getting defensive of like the Trevor aspect specifically is like that was just already what the bet was. Right.

Like if you're if you're making the bet on Trevor as a dynasty asset this year, like you're either betting for him to not just meet expectations, but like drastically outperform his seasonal expectations because the seasonal expectations weren't high, right? Like if people actually thought he was going to score all. a lot of fantasy points this year. They would have drafted him as a top 12 quarterback in seasonal league. Last year they did, right? Last year that was actually true of Trevor Lawrence, where he had seasonal production expectations. It wasn't really true this year. It's just a matter of people paying for GB2, right? You look at him down to Herbert being the most extreme example,

to a slightly less extreme example, all these guys who were just valued way higher in dynasty relative to the redraft price point. That's what the bet was. The bet was longevity. You're going to get that. he's not going to get bench anytime. Sure. Certainly not Bryce Young. But yeah, is that worth it? If quarterback scoring is down to the degree it's down, then like unequivocally no. Where if, you know, here's the crazy thing.

Last year he finishes the QB 17 and offense points per game. If anyone wants to guess where he is this year, he's actually the QB 16, which is hilarious because he's averaged 12 points per game. It's just, you know, obviously the QB 16 at the end of the year, I don't think it's going to average 12 points per game. But last year, there were 22 quarterbacks who averaged 15. points per game or more. Right now there's 12. So if that stays directionally accurate, where a mid-level QB2 is performing like an RB2 instead of what's historically been the case,

which is mid-level QB-2s still produce better than, you know, anything but the elite starting running backs and wide receivers, well, then longevity matters because just filling the superflex spot with anyone is going to be helpful. That's not really the case right now. You may as well be starting a running back. So we'll see if that holds up. Right. And that's, that's where I felt that's to really separate because there is always we got more weapons that they got for them and then they spend X on the offensive line and then now we're really going to know how to use everyone and it's just it's just a theme right so it's important to note that uh it's it's time to maybe shift your your views on expectations i think is it and i think we're coming down to the he's probably destined around for uh for the next little while unless something changes even on his big blitz games that he had. Like I said, I give him his props. He goes on Linsanity runs every year. It just, it's going to be hard to do it this year. It really is. But again, down the field. Well, yes, the colds twice. Yeah, true. Yeah. I mean, down the field.

Like I did give him his flowers down the field. He's been the best downfield thrower in the league this year pretty much not named Gino Smith. I'm pretty sure, which is insane. Let's talk about. If Lauren wants to show you the truth, I will quickly, if it's like, I mean, I'm frankly like way more invested in the Lawrence real life discussion than I am in the Lawrence fantasy discussion. But for both purposes, we're going to get a very interesting next three weeks here because he gets Monday night prime time against the Buffalo Bills this coming up week where, you know, Bill's tough defense, but probably going to have to match points with Josh Allen and company there. I don't think you're going to want to run the ball as much as they're ridiculously running it right now. then gets a game against the Houston Texans in Houston another spot where you get to match points

then he comes back with the worst defense in the NFL, the Indianapolis Colts. So two matchups where he's going to probably have to pass it quite a lot and then one where he gets a really easy matchup going to be, this is this chance to see if he can go on one of as Tom calls it, the Linsanity runs or not.

Right. He does, like I said, he gets four games a year where he's just insane like Derek Carr. But to answer the question, do we believe that this is, his mediocre or are we not believing it this is the point of the bit believe it or not is not going to have a 12 point for game all year but i'm probably going to be 16 yeah that's

that's the question i'm asking is he a mid-range qb2 do we believe this trend or not right it's kind of what he's been his entire career so yeah okay why we very differently yeah Lucas yeah unfortunately i believe it okay we've got four believe it's on the believe it or not yeah that's the verdict Trevor Lawrence destined for round four. Let's, we're going to go with that. One more quarterback I want to talk about, and this one was more important to me than any other quarterback conversation because Greg Roman's back in the NFL, and so is Jim Harbaugh.

And that can only mean one thing. Goodbye to your quarterback if it's not Lamar Jackson with Greg Roman around. Hell, I think Jim Harbaugh would have tried to nerf Lamar Jackson if he could. if he was the coach and not John. But let's talk about it. Are we going to believe it or not that this is just the future of Justin Herbert? I went back and I looked in Justin Herbert's QB2 season, his 2021 year. He hit 294.4 passing yards per game.

He attempted roughly, I think I rounded down here a little bit, 39 attempts per game. He averaged 2.2 touchdowns per game. And that's with our usual qualifiers of 10 games played in a minimum, of 50 dropbacks to weed out some of the weird starts. He was tied for ninth and fantasy points per dropback with Matthew Stafford with 0.54. That to me, he relies on volume. And let me tell you, volumes not their bag, baby. Not at all.

He only has four deep throws on the year in 2024. So far, he's an into 23 passing attempts per game. He's averaging 137 passing yards per game. and I believe he has three touchdowns. Ryan, you sent me that they are the fourth worst in pass rate over expected. I don't, and week one was a more neutral game script. They weren't super ahead.

They weren't super behind, and they just wanted to run the rock. So let's ask ourselves about Justin Herbert. It's a little bit of a different question because, again, Herbert in redraft, if you mentioned where he was projected to score points, not high, but again, Herbert's still being drafted very highly. To me, this is a get-out situation.

If we get this for two to three years, I won out. I had already gotten out before he even played for most of my leagues. But believe it or not, Harba is going to continue to absolutely neuter Justin Herbert for his tenure in L.A. Brian, we can start with Ryan. Yeah, it's kind of, the real question is kind of what you just heat up there, which is how long do we think in the long term is Harbaugh sticking around, is Greg Roman sticking around, right? I think we've seen enough in both of their careers and over these first two games

of how they want this offense to look. It's going to be run heavy. And we have an answer to that, by the way. Harbaugh never is in the NFL longer than three years. That's fair. Yeah. So, so yeah, I think you have to balance that, right? Do I think Harbaugh gets fired after one year?

is this like the revolving door in L.A.? I'm not so sure about that. I mean, there's been a baseline level of competency. Like they beat up on the Panthers. That's kind of what you would expect them to do. But yeah, I don't know. So yes, I think in the medium term, yeah, you need to be worried about Justin Herbert. I think going back to the conversation we were just having,

Justin Herbert's not a hyper-mobile quarterback. This is not a McShannahan offense, certainly the furthest thing from it. So, yeah, I think it's. it's hard to expect more than like the Trevor Lawrence type of experience from Justin Herbert. And it's, yeah, it's a very similar thing in Dynasty where, yeah, you were, you were paying the higher price for the perceived stability for like the former top five draft capital for the, at least in Herbert's case, like the incredibly productive rookie season. But yeah, it just hasn't materialized at all since then. and it's looking less and less likely, at least in the medium term. Right.

I agree with that, Lucas. So right now, I just had to go look it up because I was curious. Alex Smith, whenever Jim Harbaugh was in San Francisco, average about 16 fantasy points per game. And I kind of see that as what we should be expecting from Justin Herbert. It kind of sucks. But I think that we're going to be dealing with this for at least four years, because that's how long Jim Harbaugh's NCAA show cause is.

Before they add on whatever comes from the whole sign stealing scandal, if he even gets anything else, I don't know. I think that Jim Harbaugh is in the NFL for a little while. We shall see, though. But unless he starts using his legs more, which he has the ability to, he's a very athletic quarterback, and I think he has all the ability in the world. But the scheme that Harbaugh wants to run,

it's very evident so far through these two weeks plus all of the san francisco years we have to fall back on he's just going to be this type of player who they're not really going to let them fully loose and it's also going to be the same if they don't actually upgrade his wide receiver core which who knows if they will but at least he's better protected now we can at least say that oh my god joe alt is so un like he joe alt you can just check the box like we see what he looks like he's Definitely in the country music. Definitely grew up on a farm. Joe Schmo never been in trouble an A plus student.

The Hall of Fame, like check the box Hall of Fame offensive tackle. Just lock them in. I've a hard time disagreeing with you. Jacob. I'm not quite as down at Harvard as you guys are. They played, I think we know the deal with the chargers under Harbaas

that if they're not pushed, they're just going to run the ball repeatedly. So these games are going to happen. I think we kind of knew they were going to happen. They played the Raiders. and the Panthers so far, they led pretty comfortably in both of these spots and ran the shit out of the ball,

which is going to be what they're going to do. I do think we'll probably see far better receiving cores over time than the one that they currently have right now, which is rookie year, Ladd-McConkie in his first two games, injured Josh Palmer, and apparently the resuscitated Quentin Johnston, which I think says more about the Chargers receiving core than Quentin Johnston.

So I would suspect that this is kind of the worst, that we're going to actually see it. The comparison I've made that I still think I will stand by is the Pete Carroll-era Russell Wilson when you had a quarterback who at the time was clearly one of the best quarterbacks in the league. And it would be a constant mix of very infuriating games when they would just run the ball and not try to pass

and win the ball with running a defense. And then you'd have these spike games where they would get pushed off of what they wanted to do, either do it a matchup or just the other offense on their side was putting up a ton of points. And because Wilson was very good, he was able to keep up and have these big spike performances. To me, that's going to, I still think what we're going to see some up with Herbert, maybe a little bit less so this year just because the receiving weapons are so poor. But I think especially over time, like we're still going to have a weekly ceiling there.

He is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I have no issues with the talent. He's proven it even to a much higher degree than even when we were just talking with Trevor Lawrence. But the weeks like this are certainly going to be there where they're just not going to have the volume. And like, he doesn't have the rushing volume. So the only thing with Herbert is it's going to, it's going to have to be past touchdowns. He's going to have to have three past touchdowns in a week and have a ceiling. And he's going to have weeks like that.

But past touchdowns are volatile and there's going to be weeks where he has one. And those weeks are going to suck for fantasy. Shout out Bay Shabobo. I haven't seen you in the chat in a long time. Happy to know you are doing well. That's not what Harba believes in. Harba leaves him. Harba leaves him running to score and running to win.

Yeah, exactly. Yeah, 100%. The thing with Russell Wilson is that dude ran like 489, 500, 850. 500. I don't know if they actually have Herbert do that, but you all right. Like this is a guy that we can undeniably say benefited from volume. I don't know if that volume's. I think they have to be down 14 because with that Raiders game, they didn't get significantly up until the fourth and they were still just ran it, ran it, ran it. I mean,

they threw it 26 times with Herbert that game. That was actually his highest of the two totals, which isn't totally surprising. But you're right. It's going to come down the touchdowns. And we need to him to start running. Otherwise, again, we've got a couple of years of being down. Here's my question for you guys. I did write Justin Herbert up in my article that's probably going up in the next day or so that Ryan did a gracious job editing vigorously. I did put him in my... All you were talking smack in the Twitter group chat about beating me this weekend. It is true. Yeah, that wasn't that wasn't lost. While you were talking smack.

That wasn't lost on me at all. I thought it was funny. It's just my humor, Ryan. When you beat me, I take advantage of me like this time. I welcome, I welcome you to mock me when, when if and or when the day comes that you beat me in a league. I mean, ask Jacob, I beat him in the finals and I let him know about it for two years.

And then I don't let him talk smack on the fact that he beat me in the finals just last year. So, yeah, I don't even bring it out. I know. I need this. I move on as in next. You guys have Twitter followers. I need this. okay, these games mean something to me.

Please follow me. God. But my question is, are we selling at all to tear over to maybe some more upside? Well, Justin Herbert can still survive on the name Herbert before people start seeing the actual decline in production. I think this is a very relevant conversation because if the person out there still believes, maybe even someone that believes a little bit more

than maybe Jacob would, would you be trying to move off of them at all while you can? So I'm going to answer your question with a question. And this came up in my mind because of the comment Jacob made about, oh, we just need them to get pushed off of what they want to do. He'll have to have like a three passing touchdown game. How many games with three passing touchdowns do you think Justin Herbert has since the start of 2020? Just wild.

They've been in net. Right. I mean, this is the thing with Harbaugh that I actually. I'll say four. Like, I actually think we're going to see more of that because I think that I actually don't think Harbaugh is a donkey. Like, I think this team is going to be good and they're going to score points and they're going to win games.

It's just they're not going to do it in a way that we like. But I think that they're going to have like a far more functional NFL offense than they had last year when it was just like a disaster. But I don't know. I'll still guess the answer's like, what do you think we'll go with five? Okay, you're all too low. It was actually six. So six.

win. Since three TD games for Herbert in the last two years and change. So, yeah, three times a season, four times, five times a season, if we are giving a Harbaugh premium here, which I think is maybe a little optimistic, but fair enough. Yeah, I think you, I think you sell off the name value. But really, though, I don't know to what extent that exists. That's going to be very league dependent, right? I think especially after we have actually come and watch this Chargers team play football for two games.

I think it's a lot harder to talk yourself into, like as a dynasty manager, receiving a Justin Herbert offer. Oh, like it's Justin Herbert. He's really, all the reasons Jacob was saying, he's really good. He's proven the talent. I think right now the zeitgeist is going to be more like, oh, my God, like they're never going to throw the ball again. Herbert. You can try and sell if you want, but three of the next.

five weeks, they get Chiefs, Cardinals, Saints. So these are spots where I think you're going to, well, if I'm wrong and you don't get any production of Herbert in those games, then it's, then it's over. So if you don't think that Herbert is going to have any sort of upside, then by all means, sell now because those are his opportunities. But if you have some level of faith that like Herbert is actually still quite capable and it's just Harbaugh pushing him down, then those are the spots where he's going to potentially have to dole out the fantasy points because they're going to have to throw to keep up. Well, you never know, but you would project them.

I have watched, you'd have to throw to keep up in a game against the Chief Saints Cardinals than against the Carolina Bears. I have watched Greg Roman call run play after run play down 15 multiple times to come back in a game. And that's what scares me. So we'll just see, man. I agree. I think the next couple weeks are important.

I feel like that's why it was. important to ask this now because people have already started the panic. So to me, I feel like it was important to ask. Let's get our second break. And we're going to move on to some wide receivers and then possibly some tight ends. Although I think I'm over tight ends. I don't even know if I want to talk about them today because they just kiss me off this weekend. I'm not sure. Let me know in the chat if you want us to talk about some tight ends and maybe we will. But you let us know. Quick break. We'll be right back. It's important to ask the people. what they want at the same time

because, you know, we're men of the people. This is what we're here for. Let's talk about some wide receivers. I want to talk about Chris Godwin because, well, he's goaded and he was our favorite receiver to pick up in the ninth round. He was going to the wide receiver 40

to be the months of June in the end of July. Insane. Absolutely insane. But there's a little bit of a discrepancy. So it's important to note. So let's see if we believe or not that Chris Godwold is keeping up at least somewhat into this top 10 pace, let's say. He's currently the wide receiver won.

He scored 23 and a half points per game through two games, but he's had an expected fantasy points per game of 13.2. That is a significant overperforming situation, but he has a 34.2% first read target share. He's not particularly making people miss, but he's got 12 first down, so they go to him. He's second in targets per route run at 0.37 behind Cooper Cup. He's set to smash in this cup-like role.

So let's just ask the question. The Buccaneers look like super legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Lucas touched on this when he said that Baker Mayfield just looks like the guy he was meant to be in Cleveland, which we're all super happy for because he's been super cheap. Let's talk about it. Chris Godwin, do we believe or not that he is going to continue this like top 10 pace? No, no. No.

Part of us, no. not at all they got out gained by like 250 yards like i i don't think that the bucks are actually a good team um they beat up on a terrible washington team and they got outplayed massively by a lines team that just kept turning the ball over on downs or having jared goth throw picks like that to me that was like one of the most you simulate this game a hundred times in the team that one wins five of the year um and yeah i'm selling on the box being actually actually good. I'm buying on Chris Godwin was way underpriced relative to Mike Evans and it made no sense that we priced them way differently when they've been priced basically the same

their whole careers together. But top 10, I'm going to say no on that one. I think he's still a wide receiver. Okay. Lucas? I want to be in on him. I really do. Top 10 is a little seat. I'm going to say top 15 if I can. If I can flex to that, I think he'll be a top 15 wide receiver. Okay. I find that just because, okay, well, we've seen how good he can be in this role previously. Let's not forget. Ryan wanted me to pop this up. I'm going to pop this up. Let's get Ryan's take. Let's talk about this chart right here, Ryan. Yeah, there's not even like a huge take on this chart. I just love that. Usually when I make charts and post him on Twitter, it's Tyree killed. It's like breaking it and making it unreadable because he's so much ahead of everyone else. But it was Chris Godwin this week. That's, first downs per route run. So Chris Godwin, in terms of generating first downs, by far the most effective wide receiver in the league right now, I'm not buying top 10. So yes, this role is absolutely perfect for him. We've seen his splits, whether it's from a separation standpoint, just a

fantasy points per outrun standpoint in the slot, have been a lot better. Of course, he was miscast on the outside last year. Liam Cohn is called, has said that Godwin is in the Cooper Cup role essentially, which, yeah, that's kind of what it's looked like through two weeks. Godwin's in the Cooper Cup role. I agree that top 10 is ambitious.

I would go more of top 15, top 20. I think he's a productive player for your fantasy teams this year, and I think he probably leads the bucks in receiving. Maybe that's like the slightly. Oh, wow. Okay. That's a hot take. Okay.

Yeah, he beats Mike Evans in receiving artists. Okay. See, I'm not, I'm not going to buy top 10. I said top 10 is the line on purpose just to see if I could get one. I don't think he's going to be top 10, but I will say this. I'm going to buy that he stays insanely productive and we get that 15.5 plus point per game season from him again. They can't run the football.

Like, Bucky Irving didn't even look super great running the football. and now Rashad White is banged up and also sucks at running the football. So we're talking about the kind of offense that we want. And yes, they beat up on some interesting matchups for sure. But they've got more on the way. They're going to have to throw the football. And Baker right now looks like he can just hammer the slot at will.

And they're running the plays for Godwin the way that we want them. He's scoring some touchdowns. So I think he's going to settle in to probably. probably closer 15 and I have 16 points for game, but I am buying. I'm reaching out and buying. This is the guy at wide receiver 40 that with this usage is like a legitimate league winner. I know league winner gets thrown around like a lot, but when you look at how some wide receivers are just struggling to score right now

and you drafted them in round one, like this is a good Jamar Chase, right? Like slow start to the year. You're getting a guy that on a week to week basis can produce 80% of what Jamar Chase gives you right now with that offense, that's a legitimate league winner. That's the guy I want in a flex spot. Like that's someone you can put in your super flex spot right now, like Jacob talked about with the quarterbacks.

So I'm buying. I'm 100% buying his production and that he is just good, especially in this offense. So I'm buying that. I'm going to not believe that he's top 10. I set that bar high. I know I did. I expected somebody to maybe bite on this.

So we're all pretty. pretty reasonable. I will ask though, what are you buying for? Like what are you willing to put in for a player who he has the role we want? He's producing the way we want. The offense is running the way we want. Like he has the contract. He's not 30. Like he literally checks the box of like a perfect dynasty wide receiver, you know, four, five, six. I make a habit of not buying 28 year olds coming off of 25 point games. So I probably won't be sending any Chris Godwin offers today. but I don't know. Maybe I'll send out some offers at some point

if he has a couple of bad games in a row or sprains an ankle. Like I'm not paying a first for Chris Godwin. And if you're the Chris Godwin manager and you have just enjoyed his lovely seven for 117 and one performance, like you're probably asking for a first. So not going to happen for me.

But like there is going to be someone whose team is 0 and 2 with Chris Godwin on it. Like this is, we're talking about possibilities. There's somebody that's going to want to dump the points. I think that those are the people that you need to be asking because they're going to be happier to move off of them at a lower cost than somebody obviously who's 2 and O and has Godwin and is absolutely loving life right now.

But there is somebody out there that does have them that should move them because of their points for. I did some digging. I found some, uh, you know, George Pickens trades via Dynasty Data Lab that you can go and check out for kind of a comparison or structures and build. I suggest doing that.

Take a look at Keep Trade Cut. See what's available out there. But he's still very reasonably priced in terms of, and look. He's like a somewhat sexy receiver that you would trade for Godwin. George Pickens. Right. The people.

Give me Pickens, please. I actually, I have Godwin. I have Godwin and I could take advantage of this run to go get George Pickens, that would be like, George, George Pickens would be like number three of wide receivers I want to trade for right now. Oh, geez.

I could. That's what I couldn't disagree anymore. He has looked absolutely phenomenal through the first two weeks, popping in all the advanced stuff. And not just in the advanced stuff, popping on my screen. And he would be popping in your fantasy lineups if the rest would just stop being fascists for one second, took away a 51-yard touchdown or 51-yard catch, and then another touchdown that comes back from OPI. So he has a game last week. Yeah, that's his thing. I've said it for years. To or sorry, there was one. It wasn't on OPI that one was OPI and not on him. It was on,

it was on his teammate. And then another one was a holding call on one of the offensive linemen. Take away those two penalties. We're looking at a game with 90 yards and a touchdown against Patrick Sertan, all game in shadow coverage and in a game where Justice feels visited and throwing passes. So, like, I don't know exactly what the ceiling is when you're in the Arthur Smith, Justin Fields, vortex for 2024. I get that. But in terms of a guy that I felt like after his first two years, we could definitely say it was good, but we weren't really sure if he was great.

I'm increasingly sure that he's great. So I would love to make this kind of move to go get George Pickens. That's a rapid riser. I'm doing my dynasty rankings update. See, for me. Tonight or tomorrow night. He will be up a tier, that's for sure. See, if I can get guys.

Godwin plus then from somebody that's super into the pickings. I'm just, I'm just doing that. Like we're looking at Arthur Smith still run like 12 and 13 personnel more often than not. He's found a way to turn Justin Fields into a terrible fantasy asset. We're just dealing with like the same shit. This is just Drake London now.

This is just the same shit. So, okay, the stuff you're saying about Fields. Yeah, all this stuff is true about Arthur Smith. Like, like, you know, not going to be any that. But like exactly what you're saying about the box.

I get back to what we were saying about the. the Chargers like, back to what I was saying at the very top of this program, there are just some teams who are completely pulverizing the fantasy value of everyone in the game on both sides because they're so bad. And then most of the somewhat competent teams right now are largely coming off the back of their defense and aren't that aggressive. And so you end up getting these games, they've got Steelers Broncos. We're like, again, those two calls go differently. Pickens has a 20 point half. Fields has like a 23 point half. But those calls don't go differently.

And Bo Nix is Bo Nix. And Sean Payton is kicking a bunch of field goals he shouldn't have kicked and punting and not even onside kicking when he's still down seven. And the Steelers basically just don't play football the second half of the game. Like they're just like, all right, we're kneeling on the ball for a half. And so like that's just going to when we're looking at a two week small sample. And I think there's going to be a lot of noise where some teams like the Bucks go up against two pretty suspect defenses. and two teams that actually play fast and fight and try to compete in games.

And then teams like the Steelers are going up against just total nothings. And like you're going to get, I think, some noise there where things start to look a lot better. And that's going to even out, I think, over the course of the season where like it's just going to be part of the deal, unfortunately, in fantasy. Where like a lot of these teams with slight exceptions of some of the teams that are willing to be aggressive, at least in the first half, enough for they get out in front. but there's just going to be games. Like everybody has to play the Broncos at some point. And if you're playing the Broncos, it's just not going to be fun for you because they're like a reasonable enough defense that you're not going to pull away that fast.

And then their offense is non-competitive. So you're just going to be like running the balls. It's just sucks. I get it. That would be what I would try to take advantage of early season. I want to piggy back there too on the Steelers. I was writing this up with Najee Harris and Jalen Warren. The Steelers have only trailed by a score on 16% of their offensive plays so far this year.

So, yeah, I think there's, and also that that's not even bottom of the league. That's like seventh or eighth lowest right now. So there's a lot of teams that have, including like the Steelers, not like a, by no means like a juggernaut, right? I don't think you would go into this season saying, okay, the Steelers are rarely going to be trailing. I think a lot of these teams kind of like the Steelers are going to be trailing more this year. So yeah, just as Jacob's saying, just feeding more into, yeah, this is a small sample of games, but also it's a very specific sample for a handful of these teams where they've just had no reason to try to play football. I would like to go back and look at like the previous years with the Steelers.

This just feels like what the Steelers do. Like they're always just kind of in games. They're never like totally. So my argument for this is do I want the opportunity to have eight targets for seven catches 80 and one or like seven for 65 and then take a shot that my

receiver that I didn't get the plus four gets like six targets catches three and one of them goes. Like that's to me the difference in play style and that to me is what I think Pickens is. That's what he has to score Pickens this year. Yeah, that's why I'm saying if I can get how much like is it going to be that material like is

is one to two points per game difference average over the whole season. Is that winning me in my dynasty championship? Because it better because like Pickens is definitely worth more than Godwin next off. But it does if you get the liquidity in the plus, which is why I said like if I'm finding someone that's as into it and definitive as you are, I better be getting that other piece that's like liquid that I can use to get something else. To me, that's the difference.

That's me. That's the way I'm playing it. So I would actually like to touch on that. I could be like a fun little thing in a couple of weeks. Lucas, can we write down Godwin v. Pickens

for the rest of the year and just make a note because I'd actually be interested to see how that goes. I want to note it also that as I just said before my words, when I get interested,

if you're asking me who I think is going to score more points this year, I maintain that I think it is Chris Godwin. 100%. No, 100%. That's why I just, I want to see, I want to see basically what I'm asking

why am I want to track it. I want to track it. I want to track from key trade cut and then statistics and see what actually matters to dynasty managers because I feel like a lot of podcasts will go out there and tell you, oh, just trade guy for guy X and a plus and then don't actually follow up on what the hell

the difference was. We're going to find out what the hell the difference is going to happen. What 10th happened is that Godwin's going to produce pickings. So I need to make sure my hands were the right spot. So for the whole course of this year, right? Here's Pickham starting the year. And then Godman's going to O'Conn's

Pickens. Pickens probably still going to have good peripheral steps. It's going to get closer. It's going to get closer. It's going to get closer. Oh my God. It's going to get so close. And then the offseys is going to drop. People are going to go see their families for a month.

And they're going to get in start up in March. And then whoop. Oh, my God. We've got a big gap again. Look at that. Yeah. No, I agree. And then once again, Chris Godwin's going to be a buy again because he's going to

get drafted at wide receiver like 43 because he's a year older. So this is, this is for sure. That's for sure, definitely a lot. likely outcome. Let's talk about one that I know I want to do last in this. We're not going to do tight ends, but because none of you guys said tight ends. So you're out now. Tight ends are out. We've got to do backfields and then get out of here. Two wide receivers left and I find two of them to be

completely opposite ends of the spectrum for me and what I believe. So I, myself and the people need to hear you guys. I want to talk about JSN because I feel like last week was a massive over correction. You go to keep trade cut before the game. He was wide receiver 36. You check today he's wide receiver 26.

He's jumped 10 spots for a game that I think that we can all fully admit is an outlier game, 16 targets, 12 receptions, he went absolutely nuclear. Ryan, I was asking you who had Gonzalez DK just ate them up.

Chris Weck posted that from the Fantasy Points data account. DK. just ate him up and there's some, you know, a little bit of disagreement on alignment and whose job it actually was. The matchup reports, it's not perfect, but it just helps give an idea. Gino Smith just absolutely bawled out. Now, I want to talk about a couple of things with this because I don't know what to believe at all through this.

This was just a complete bit of insanity. I don't know if this is just Gino playing out of his damn mind. The Seahawks ranked 31st and past block win rate at 38. They're 31st in run block win rate at 65% per Jackson A. Bevins. Gino Smith being QB4 in QBR is truly insane. We stand Gino Smith all offseason. I even wrote them up in Veterans to buy in February for this reason is that he can do this under pressure. He's been insane.

You go to week one and JSN had his Applebee's right. two for 19, two for 25. Okay. And then we get this. This is the two biggest night and day differences other than like Malik neighbors week one to week two. Maybe maybe even Marvin Harrison. I need to know some takeaways because I think he's West Coast Chris Godwin.

I think that's just like what his career is destined to be. But now he looks like that top guy from Ohio State after a singular week and what I think is a plus matchup. So I need you three super intelligent human beings to tell me what the hell is happening with JSN kind of moving forward because I don't know what to expect. I think I need to expect right in the middle, but you guys tell me, Ryan. All right. So I think the first important thing to maybe acknowledge here is in week one,

the Seahawks came out very, very run heavy against the Broncos going back to our previous discussion. So all offseason, we heard from this coaching staff that they're absolutely enamored with Ken Walker. They want to completely run their offense through him. They want to throw the ball to him, which is an interesting decision. When you have those three other wide receivers, you could throw it to instead. And that's exactly what we saw in week one, right? It was, oh, my God, I am getting flashbacks to Pete Carroll, except he likes Ken Walker more,

which was great for Ken Walker, not great for the passing attack, right? but as soon as Ken Walker misses week two and by the way is Edmund Porras has kind of it he hasn't hit IR yet right there's a chance that Walker hits IR that that's a in the realm of possibility they snuck that in like wow god I'm not hear this where the hell is this they snuck to Ken Walker multiple weeks thing like after warmups in the game they're really sneaky about it oh man I was thinking we were like I was thinking we were getting on that like week three or week four. This is a bummer.

All right. Yeah. It's not confirmed. IR. That's, that's Edwin Porras's speculation. He's pretty good at this. Anyways.

That'd be pretty upsetting if they didn't go IR week one and then IR later. But all right. Yeah. You're going to send me that poor ass tweet because I'm, this is bad radio, but I'm now just like having that. I will find that after. Yes. So anyways.

If that's how the Seahawks want to run their offense, then obviously that's bad for JSN, right? After week one, I was writing, oh, JSM, look, a dot of two yards, right? Like, just exactly kind of what we were afraid of and looked exactly like his usage did in year one, right? Obviously, completely different in week two. A 170 air yards, which is, I don't know how many air yards, JSCs. had all of last year, but I'm going to guess that's around like 40% of his 2024 air yards total. So yeah, I think maybe for these next couple weeks, if the C docs are just saying, okay, well, without Ken Walker, Charbonnet's fine, played every single snap, by the way.

But we want to go pass heavy, similar to like the Pat Mahomes thesis right now without Pacheco. If that's kind of what we see, then yeah, I think JSN can be productive, can continue to build upon his dynasty value. But I would, yeah, I would just caveat if Walker comes back, hopefully soon, but even if it's like week eight or week nine or whatever, then I think there's a chance that this offense just kind of pulls back again if they don't have overwhelming success against better teams than the Patriots. Do you think that's kind of a toothpaste in the tube thing? For me, it is. To me, this is, they go in. Now, you're closer to it. So you're you're calling the Patriots a bad defense?

I don't think they're a bad defense. I don't think it's a bad defense. Their secondary is rough, dude. Yeah, Gonzalez is good. The rest of the secondary has issues, and I don't know how good the coaching is at this point. The Patriots live through their front seven. Which we saw on that.

I think the coaching is good defensively. I trust Mayo defensively. I don't trust them as like a program CEO. All right. Okay, so I'll take your word for their secondary being a bit. overrated outside of Gonzalez. Gino still played phenomenal in that game. And like a lot of the stuff he was doing was like tight window stuff.

And the way that JFSN played was remarkable and was a revelation. I mean, easily the best game of his career. Mekhaf is explosive. I don't know. That, that's for me strikes me as a situation where like they find something, now they know it works. They know they can get the ball to these two receivers. I think that's something you want to keep going back to.

Surely they'll run the ball more with Walker than with Shards. Because, like, Charbonnet is a Samajai P. Ryan ass running back, which is, like, I love him for fantasy because he is like a big dude who can play 97% snap rates and can catch five passes and can get goal line work. Like, that's great, right? The Charmone's role that he's in right now is just better for fantasy than a healthy Ken Walker is for fantasy. Yeah. Even though Ken Walker is gallows.

Alex is more talented of an actual running back. This Zach Charmone role for fantasy is so mid. It's like late career Leonard Fournett out there. But it's also great for everybody else because he can't do shit as a runner. And so they actually have to pass. I hope it continues. I'm more bullish on it continuing than Ryan. I mean, I don't know.

Continuing like this is a stretch. You went like too crazy. Well, yeah, he's not going to get 16 targets every week. But I don't know. I feel like it's not even possible to buy high on GSN. because like the people who were willing to his dynasty evaluation made no sense this whole time with his production. So like I don't I don't imagine that anyone who's been holding JSN to this point has like an ounce of fear in their hearts. So to me they are going to be like confirmation and biasing their way to ranking JSN is like the wide receiver 9 and dynasty.

I don't think that they're going to be looking to sell high. So I don't even tried making an offer but I'm pretty bullish. I mean, with Jason, I really like his upcoming schedule against Miami this weekend. I don't know if we really know what to expect from the Miami defense or really the offense with Tua being out and on I are. But then after that at Detroit versus New York versus San Francisco, I think that there is a really good chance that his stock's going to continue to go up. I personally don't see an issue with him being up at wide receiver 26. it's just kind of like, I think we were even saying it this off season that where he was going felt just a little bit low.

And I thought that it was at the low end of our expectations for what he could be doing this season. So I think that there's a really good chance for stock to continue to go up. And then if you're still not sold, like Thomas, I don't think you're too sold right now, or at least that's just why I'm getting right now. Oh, I'll get there. But if you aren't sold on him, wait until after the San Francisco game, then start looking to sell him after that. It's just a really nice setup right now. And who knows, maybe you'll be a believer by then and you'll keep playing game. Although it does get a little bit rougher after that with Atlanta versus Buffalo immediately following before the Ramson is by.

It's not, it's, someone's going to comment that I keep cutting you off the end of your sentences. I know that comments coming on Twitter again and something about my Mike volume being too loud I don't know and us being unprofessional who knows. I'm not not a believer. Like you don't get 16 targets if the team doesn't want to throw it.

I just think this was maybe a bit of a perfect storm and I think that maybe he has a bit of a perfect storm ahead of him for three to four weeks if Ken Walker's not back. And you get matchups. Now if I if I think that's not going to kill off your sentence. Never mind.

We are not. We're just not professionals on this program at all. We're going to go long. We're cutting everyone off. Three of our might. I don't know. It's crazy. We're not pros here.

I think that he does have the perfect storm. And we want wide receivers to finally break out and do well. We knew that one thing needed to happen for JSN to really become, you know, an upper tier. I don't think he's a top 12 wide receiver. I don't think he's going to finish as a top 12 wide receiver. What we did need to have happen, though, was Tyler. Lockett needed to catch fewer passes than Jackson Smith than Jigba. And in week one, J.S.N. didn't do it.

Lockett led the team in a very Lockett way. I think it was seven for like 65 or seven for like 71. It was a very Tyler Lockett game. In this game, however, he starts off the same. He had four catches for 22 yards to start this game. And then he finally got a couple down the field. He had some yak in there. He got about 30 yards after catch, which we love to see and then you got help with a little bit overtime sure perfect storms but he kind of continues to get perfect storms Miami now maybe Seattle goes up early on Miami because Miami's offense can't do dick with Skyler Thompson like let's be real just play Snoop all right just play Tyler Huntley he run that offense no I don't want to huntley I mean if I'm going to get nothing out of this

fucking offense I better at least get my 8chan checkdowns fair okay respect respect uh then he gets Detroit who was a veg bottle everywhere who was bad in the slot, right? You got eaten alive by Godwin. This can be another JSN game here. And eaten alive by cop, right? Yeah, exactly. Then the Giants, whose defense is woeful.

But again, I think that Seattle can get up early on Miami right now, and I think they can get up early on the Giants. So how much do they throw and how much do they want to pound the rock? When does Ken Walker get back? And then like Lucas said, San Francisco is the test. And then their schedule doesn't really get easier towards the end of the year.

So I think the next three weeks are really going to matter. I think his dynasty value is going to shoot to top 12. I think it'll be top 12 by the end of next week. And I think I won out. I think I'm going to want out at 12. But we'll see. We'll see. But again, we got a 10 spot over correction on one game that we know is a career outlier.

And to me, when you have like a game that's closer to his average and then one game that's a massive outlier, I expect them to meet in the middle. Like Lucas pointed out, he's a lot. He's got a couple of games. So I think you're right. I think we're waiting to see. I think he's a good player. It's nice to see his A dot come up.

Like that was very cool. Like I want to see that. I'm tired of seeing Zay Flowers being used behind the line of scrimmage. Tired of watching a good receiver in JSN. His thing was always the price. Like Lucas said, we said all year like when that price changes, we want to buy.

We want to buy. There's opportunity. Well, what if? Right. That's why we play portfolio. I played them this week for everyone that went at me. I played him.

I was smart enough to recognize matchup and Walker being out. Geez, get off my back here a little bit. But I guess to answer Ripley's believe it or not, does he carry, well, let's go top 16 for JSN, rest of the season. Like does he end the season as a top 15?

Points per game, top 16. Oh, points per game top 16? No. Let's make him top 16. Because this is, this is the,

he's out. He's broken out now. This is just his role. This is just, I'm going off of Discord and, and Twitter conversations. This isn't straw man. I have,

I have a reason. I'm not, I'm not judging. I will say, I will say no to top 16 production rest of sea. Okay. Lucas. Top 16 is,

that is so tough. So no, I don't think he's going to be doing that. I'm looking at him to finish in a competitive wide receiver two role. So not quite wide receiver two, but if he's your flex, if he's your wide receiver two,

it's not the end of, the world for you and I'm expecting for his dynasty ADP to be about wide receiver 26 as well. So I don't think he's really going to be moving up around, but I think that he's going to be very competitive and where we'll be speaking about him in the same tone as Zayflowers, tanked L next off season. Okay. Ryan, I could see like 13 to 14 fantasy points for game a little more with like touchdown luck or whatever.

But is that top 16 in some years? Sure. Is it like, oh, I'm super bullish on the production. Like he's a clear high end wide receiver two or anything like, not really. That's not how I'm doing him. Oh, okay. I'll be the bull. I'm not going to take top 16 because I don't think that's over 50% likely to happen.

And that's just the question that was asked. But I do want to push. I do think there's a legitimate ceiling. Tyler Lockett, you mentioned, right, this game. And I know it was not the case week one. So, you know, that exists too. But in this game, 16 targets JSN, 14 targets, DK.K. Metcalf, two targets for Tyler Lockett. To me, that's the most important part is that they went in with a clear cut game plan of building everything around DK. McCaff and Jackson Smith and Jigba.

That's the path, right? Gino Smith right now is, like, I'm prone to hyperbole when it comes to Gino Smith, but he's legitimately playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now. Like, he just is. It's a league where every quarterback is playing bad. and Gino Smith is one of the ones who isn't. It feels like he's like the guy out there and the British Open and it's the wind and the rain

and everybody else is throwing up 80s and he's just like cranking up pars and he drains a 20 footer for birdie the one making all the tough throws that nobody else is willing to take on. So is it plausible to me that if this offense just concentrated entirely around the two guys

that they could have two top 15 wide receivers like that is plausible to me because of how bad most of these passing games are and this is one of the few passing games that isn't. So it just comes down to, like, the one thing I have a lot of faith in is Gino. I fully believe in him. I have a little less faith in just can JSN truly dust lock it out of the equation because that's buying into a one week sample of that happening.

And then it's also, can they keep the pass rate up, right? Which I don't know. We have one week of them doing it without Walker. They didn't do it with Walker. We'll see. but I do think it's at least plausible. If someone's saying like, well, what's the upside really of the sort of low ADOT guy? The upside is that they run a whole offense through two guys.

DK is the explosive guy. J.S.N.'s the possession guy. And that can totally work and get you two top 15 receivers. Just we've got to see them actually commit to doing it. Okay. I'm going to, I'm going to not by top 16. I will say 18, but I think in Dynasty, I think he finishes the wide receiver 12 by the end of the year.

I think he will be the ranked across all the crowdsourcing. He might even creep close to that way to me to wide receiver 12 by the end of it because he just has to keep beating out Lockett. So we'll see. If he has more games where he beats out Lockett than not, I think I'd be willing to move him up. Last receiver. We'll go quick on this one because we've talked a lot of receivers.

We'll go quick on next. I want to do that. Let's just go right to the believe it or not portion here. Look, James and Williams has been. insanely dominant. He has 200 yards, 19 points per game over the last two. He's got eight yards after the catch, 21st read targets. He's nuking Sam Leporta. Now, I do think that when they tried to run in the second game against the Bucks, when they tried to run the offense through Jameson Williams, it wasn't working. And there was a clear shift to get Alman Ross St. Brown

more involved. But do we, I had Jameson Williams, that, my sleeper breakout at like 12 and a half points per game, and it looks like he's going to shatter that in this offense. Are we believing it or are we not? I believe it. I believe it. This offense, everybody else in this offense,

this was the big reason why I was, you know, been screaming Sam LaPorteur all summer, much to the displeasure of Tom in the comments, is that everybody else in this offense worked the same depth of the field. Gibbs is a short area target. Ammona's a short area target.

Laporta's a short area target. Like, I'm surprised that this is actually happening with James and Williams, but the thing that he has in his favor is that he's not that. He plays at a completely different depth. He plays a completely different role than everybody else. And that's the role that they needed. To me, for this offense to take the next step

and to actually turn this team into a very legitimate Super Bowl favorite, it needs to have that vertical element. And James and Williams provides that. So to me, his stuff is pretty safe. And as the offense shifts toward incorporating more of that, then what the issue ends up being, is that then there's less room for everybody to eat in the eight-yard area. And if you have to choose between who you want doing that, Amin-Rah or La Porta,

the choice is probably going to be Amin-Raw. So point being, do I think that this can stick? Do I think this off? Yes, because I think it makes this offense a lot better if they actually have a guy that can do this. I did not think Jameson was capable of this season. But now I do. So the fact that he's going to be doing it, I think there's no reason for them to go away from it,

because I think it's really badly needed for this. Yeah, I agree with all of that. I am buying this. I believe it. And just expanding more on the Leporta stuff, yeah, while his ADOT was kind of shallower last year, Leporta was used as their single high coverage beater, right? Where it's Aminawa underneath against too high, Leporta became much more efficient against single high. And when there was no blitz and no pressure, when the play could develop a little bit more, right? But now if, so first of all, Jamo is getting the first reads. He is a first read type of player, Sam Laporta, as most tight ends are not. So that another kind of first read being in the tree is bad for him. And also, if the play can develop, on average, you're probably getting a lot more out of a shot down field to Jameson Williams than you are to Sam Laporta underneath, right? So I think Leporta can definitely,

Leporta is going to have games where he catches multiple touchdowns this season, right? For sure. Like this is not like, oh, Sam, he's not going to be Dolton Schultz. Yeah. Sam Leport is going to be a top five tied end rest of season, right? I'm not like, I can give you five I like more?

Can I give you five I like more? For rest of season points per game, sure for it. Okay. Yeah. Bride, Bowers, Kittle, Kiddell, Kincay. So, missed me with Kincaid. He's just not committing targets at all, and I don't know. I worry about that.

But I mean, and then it gets a little harder. Then it's probably like, then I'm, then I'm squinting, trying to figure out which one of Leporta, Andrews, and Kelsey I'm going to take next. But the four, those four, I feel pretty good about our score. I can't do Kincaid, dude. He's exactly what I feared when Knox plays. I can't do it. Can't do Kincaid. I'll give you,

I'll give you fourth. I will say on Kincaid, I didn't see exactly where the run. I'm going to, I've never been a Kincaid guy, but I think he's a great buy right now. I do. Yeah,

but he's running the routes. That was my biggest fear is, okay, Kincaid is going to be a head. 68% of route chair. He's not going to be on the field enough with Knox. That's not been the case. He's running the routes.

He's just not earning the targets. If you, he came out, he earned targets, the first two plays, the first two passing plays in Thursday night football. They drew up first reads for Dalton Kincaid where they wanted to get him involved.

And then he gets neat in the head, misses a couple drives, get a voted for concussion, comes back, gets a couple more targets. But he had already missed basically the whole part of the game where Miami was pushing back. So I think that he would have had a really big game potentially against Miami. I'm excited for him the next couple of weeks.

That would be the one tight end. And like, it just because I think right now, like to me, it's, it's so clear right now from a dynasty perspective. Like, and Sean Jeffers, I don't know, but we definitely all have love for Kittle. I think we all mentioned Kittel as the top for the tight end, rest of season. But like McBride and Bowers, I think are right now look so clearly to be the top two in Dynasty, at least for me and for like most of the stuff that I'm seeing on Twitter is all kind of saying the same thing. That I think to be very hard to trade for them. to me of the group that everybody's having a panic session on, Laporta, Kincade, Kelsey Andrews, like the one guy that I can see it turning around for most easily is Kincade.

So if I could offload some, like, I don't know. I think if I'm going to, if you're going to go get McBride or Bowers today, my guess is going to be extremely painful to trade up from one of those other five to them. But I don't know that it is for Kincade because people are down on him too. and I see, I guess I'm less like resigned to sadness with him as I am to the other four guys. Yeah, I agree on the Kincaid is like the one to buy part of the take. I don't know if I agree on I'm really confident Kincaid is outscoring the Porta rest of the season. I'm not really confident in it.

I'm not really confident in. I can just squint and see how in two weeks I'm like, oh, fuck yeah, I'm really glad I bought Dalton Kincaid versus to me the other guys are just like, I guess I hope I have a mid-range, like, tight end. Like, I don't know. Like, is it, are you sending Leporto for Kincade right now? I know you don't have any Leporta. I sold like all of my Leporta this summer. But, yeah, happily.

Like, I'm going to do a ranks update. I will have Dahlton KKKade ranked ahead of Sam Leport and Dynast. I can't, yeah, I just can't do that. I won't do that, no. You got on the tight ends. My bad, Tom. No, and I just, I also want to point out, because I feel like I have to. The whole bit was Sam Leporto was the tier down,

with a plus, you just weren't getting it. Like, you weren't, like, you, like, no one actually did that. I thought Brock Bowers sat at night and dreamed of having the rookie season that San LaForda just had. Yeah, and so far we're hoping, like, we're off to a good start. He's still got to finish. He's got to finish. I will remember, like, the idea of the tier down from LaPorta to player X, nobody was

fucking doing that. Like, nobody actually did that because they all said, why would I pay up when I have guy A? That was the part that I was saying no, too. I didn't draft any Leporta in round two. So there you go. I will say I was given the opportunity to tear down Leporta to McBride for like a third. And I was like, this is technically the optimal move to make probably.

But I was just like, I'm not that motivated to do it. I don't have. Exactly. And I'll keep it. And I'm kicking myself now. So right. Yeah. And I just want to point LB says JSA and Whitey 12, you smoking some good stuff.

I said at the end of the year, I can see JSNN being the dynasty wider C or 12 by the end of the year, which is what I said. Let's keep talking about James and Williams, though, where this started. I think, I think,

I think I'm going to believe to an extent, I think 19 points is kind of insane, and there was already a clear shift in how they wanted to play by the end of that game when it came down to it. I will say his targets and everything like that, like they are still using them doing crossers over the middle. Like,

he's not exactly just running deep posts every snap and get in the ball that way. So I think they're being very tactical with how they use them. tight end play is just down. So I can absolutely see Sam Leparta Sam Leporta coming back with eight targets, six targets per game and getting red zone looks,

which Dellen Kinkake won't get. And then, you know, being back to his, his happy go lucky self per the rest of the year. But I believe the James and Williams things. The problem is price is going to be. The best time to buy him is when we were telling you

to get him in the 10th round. Like we said sell it when he was round 5, sell when he was round 6, and I said, buy it around 10. by 10 and 11 perfect prices to go and buy because if it wasn't this year it was never that's what I'm going to get to at the end after after I let Lucas speak

because people tell us that we never I've already got a DM saying calling Lucas AJ Hawk since we've been live on this podcast so I have to make sure Lucas gets to speak or else people come at me in the YouTube comments but I think I'm I think I'm buying that he's finally like there's still some stuff he doesn't do super like running through contact

and there's just some wide receiver stuff that he doesn't quite get but this is the top offense and he's the number two option right now so I'm believing that I think I'm going to be closer to that 12 and a half to 14 by the end of the year but I mean let's see Lucas I think the biggest thing for JMO is the fact that Josh Reynolds isn't in Detroit anymore like he has

as you all talked about he has that role on lockdown I think. And so he's really being able to thrive in it. Detroit has brought him along very slowly. They've had a clear plan for how they want to use him. And it's really helped because they've had other people who've been able to fill the roles that historically, and even whenever JMO was coming out, we didn't believe he was going necessarily thrive in those roles in the NFL. He was crazy athletic, super fast player who's able to break games open. And Detroit has found ways to implement that in their offense.

So good on them. I am looking to buy him. Now, if somebody is expecting a 19 points per game wide receiver cost, because that's a little insane. But I am definitely looking to buy him. I'm looking to move off players like, say, a Drake London or DJ Moore and trying to move off them to go and get a JMO in that sort of scenario. I don't know what or even if there is a plus anymore.

I have a really hard rest of a situation. London or more for Jameson straight? I would want to do like Jameson in a third. That would make me at least feel a little better. I'm not buying James and Williams. I would definitely trade James and a third. That's good too. I'm starting to understand the market a little bit here too.

Because back by the way we were talking about Chris Godwin, I was looking up some of the trades. And it's like I'm seeing Chris Godwin in a second for Drake London. I'm like, that seems a little. A little strange. I don't know if I'd be able to pull that trigger, but at least with James and Williams, you still have that, like,

week winning upside to. And plus, on the younger side, so you're getting somebody who's in the same, like, generation, I guess, as,

like, the Drake London type. Can we have a one week reprieve from London hating? Like, he got the touchdown. I'm not trying to hate on him. Well, can we just keep the good vibes alive on London Island,

he does provide one week. So I did. I traded Drake London and I think a third for Jemir Gibbs and I was very happy with that. Neil Orfei wants to know if it's Garfield. That yeah, same same breed of cat. Well, actually, no, it's the same breed of cat as Pousin Boots. But good eye. Sean Jefferson says AJ Hawk talking more than expected.

Shout out for him. I turned down. I wouldn't trade a first straight up for James and Williams today. I actually said no to that earlier today. Depending on the first. if I was real confident that it was going to be late first. This is where it's going to come down to, right? Like we said sell, sell, sell, sell for multiple years.

And then he was the best investment when he was at its cheapest. Now his value is rising so quickly after two games. Well, for a guy that's more than likely at best, like, you know, his second, right? The second read in the offense. Like sending a first for that, it's. Well. Go cheaper. get Godwin, right?

Like, that's... I don't think he... I don't think him... I don't think his price yesterday should be the reason you don't buy it. Like, I think that that's fine if you're saying I don't believe he's more than just the second read in this offense and that kind of what we saw in week one and then trying to run it through him isn't going to happen going for it. Like, that's fine if that's your reason for not buying it.

But I don't think it should be, well, I could have got him in the 10th round three weeks ago. Like, we... Yeah, I don't know. I'm saying it's a little more inefficient that way, is what I'm saying. Well, but if you believed, did you, if you believed you were buying when he was at his cheapest, right? Even if it cost you a second and a little something, something. And now you finally saw it and you're now you're rushing to go and buy. To me, that is like the like the ultimate no no when like you should, you should be early not on time is what I'm trying to say.

I disagree with this. I don't, this is like I, this is exactly what I wrote about last week, right? It's like I think where I wrote like in defense of buying high and selling low, it's like, like sometimes we get information that changes things. Like the Jameson bet that we have now in front of us is different than the Jameson bet that we have in the summer. And that's not in any way taking credit away from people that were very early to the Jameson bet. Like you made a bet based on the information that you had at the time and you were right and you should celebrate that bet and then do with it, whatever you please, buy, sell anything. but like now we have more information and the bed has changed it's gotten meaningfully better and I don't I don't think that it's wrong where like I definitely don't think that you should

have you shouldn't be trading based off of FOMO right like if you're someone who has who had zero Jameson you shouldn't be rushing out now being like oh my God I got to get in on the Jameson business like I'm walking my page I just share and you share and you share that's bad right right to get out of that but like I don't think you should sit there if you're in a situation where you were at market on Jameson or underweight on Jameson being like, oh no, like, you know, I missed out at the best value. Now I can't ever get in it. Like, you know, some of the best dynasty investments that I've made have been players that I didn't draft enough of as rookies when they were very, very cheap. And Jameson,

I was third year players, a different player. But whereas guys that I, like, Pooka Nakua is an example of like a player. Like I didn't really do anything with him as a rookie. I didn't he wasn't on my radar at all. But like he popped right away and I was able to get some shares of him like very instantly after week one and week two where I was willing to buy high. Alave is another guy where like I wasn't in on him as a prospect either, but I bought high on him right away week one, week two, week three of his rookie season. And then the price ends up going beyond that. The only thing that matters now if you're looking to buy James Williams is not what he cost before. It's what's going to happen going forward. Is his production and his value going to be more valuable in the price you're paying

today? And what his price was before doesn't change that. What he did before, you should consider, right? You should definitely, you should treat, you know, if Xavier Worthy had the first two games that James and Williams just had, I would value him astronomically higher than I'm valuing James and millions because they came in his first two games. We don't have two years of it being useless, but that's about the range of outcomes going forward. It's not about the suck cost. So, for sure like anyway so what being i think i'm i think i'm in on jameson i'm in a weird spot where like i thought that i had zero i legitimately checked my exposure tab because he's so irrelevant to me that i check my exposure tab like after week one to be like oh my god like how i'm out of it

going to get buried by this that lunch and i found out that i have four shares that i was probably desperately trying to sell for like a 2027 third all summer that nobody wanted and now now i still have them right so i don't know i turned down an offer of like a I will. Very likely 201, Dontavian Wix and Taijay Spears yesterday, which I thought that was like reasonable value, but I wanted to go bigger game hunting if I'm going to sell them. What, uh,

like any, any JMO trades in your guys's life? So let's, I want to pose one more half of this question because I really love what you just said. If you pay that first, because remember, trading first can make or break your dynasty team, right?

Like if you move your first and it doesn't work out, you're fucked. We know this. It's, try going and trading for your pickback after something doesn't work. in week two. It's, you might as well,

like I always say, staple that kick me sign to your forehead. You're screwed. If he regresses back to like 11 points for game, are you still happy you'll move that first? Of course not. But that's what I'm saying is like you do have to weigh that how in you are.

And I'll just say, I just sent a trade for further. See if I get them. I sent it live while you were talking in that same league it was offered. I sent it back. Let's see what happens. I'm going to go with all Jacob Sanderson here and the Galaxy Brain take. we're going to see what happens.

We did it live on air because we're like that. We stand on business, right? We admit when we're wrong and we make the plays when we need to make them. All right, I'm standing on business. I'm a top three team in that league. Let's find out what happens. But yeah, any James and Williams trades in your guys' lives lately? How active?

Yeah, I'm going out and trying to get a burst right now, I guess. I do have one James and William share. I'm thinking of and I, yeah, I might send that offer. Okay, so Ryan is actually selling for a first. Here's, well, I'm in on both of these. So on a particular, if I have a good team where I'm willing to make a bet, and I know that my first is going to be late. Like, and now you actually do know a little bit more.

If you're four and oh, you have a high value team, something like that. Maybe you can go send it. If you're looking to sell Jameson for a first, I would just strongly recommend, like, sell for the 26 one at this point. Get yourself some upside because I don't suspect that a tanking terrible team in 2025 is going to trade you their first. if they do press accept on that but assuming that they don't like i don't think you're really getting that much there's there's certainly if you just straight up don't believe then sure but if you believe

even a little bit i don't think you're getting that much extra juice by getting a likely playoff teams first right now what you're probably going to be doing is drafting a prospect wide receiver that'll probably be ranked in a similar value team to janeson but you lose out on the production you lose out on some of the chance for it to go nuclear rocket shit. At least if you're going to take that shot, get yourself the floor of you have the first. It's not going anywhere. And get yourself the upside of it's the 102.

Right. So go go for the 26 first if you're going to make that move, in my opinion. Agreed. Agreed. Lucas is laughing. We have a question. What, JSC or Kincade? Ted and I would take Kincade in non-Tadem Premium.

I would take JSM. Okay. We want McBride or Kincaid and Jameson. I'll take Kincaid and Jameson. That's a fun one. I'll take Kincaid and Jameson. What if we swapped up McBride for Bowers? Anybody?

If we want to take the Bauer's side there? I'll take the Bauer's side. I might take the McBride side, honestly, just the way it is. That's tough. But yeah, I know like the right thing to do is doing. You hate Drake London. Wait, what does Drake London have to do with this? Because he said he would trade Jameson for Drake London straight up.

and now he's like, I didn't say straight up. I didn't say straight up. That's close enough. Also, my name's too entirely different. There are people

that like Drake London and there are people for him he is nothing. And like, depending on who you talk to, you can't apply any sort of universal currency to Drake London. Like he's either Drake London

like subal lead young dynasty wide receiver or Drake London. He is not remotely different to me than Alec Pierce. Like those are the two ways that he's view. I was glad Neil finally. someone finally caught that I changed his name to

AJ Hawksor in the show. I was, I'm slick with it. I got that name change in there real quick. Last break do a couple running backs and player picks because this is going to go two hours like it did a couple weeks ago, but you guys are dope. You're sticking with us. We love you. We'll be right back. I mean,

if you made it this long, you might as well hit that like, subscribe, leave a comment. You guys are still rocking with us. We have more viewers now than when we started the show. You guys are loving it and we're loving that you are here with us. A couple weeks ago, we talked about some, and last week,

we talked about some running back rooms that were frustrating. We have the answer in Denver. We don't really have to go over it. Javante is going to be like the only worthwhile piece there. It looks like right now, and like even that is not great. At least for now,

we finally caught some passes this week, which is kind of dope, but the six foot five scatback wasn't in the lineup. So we'll see what happens when he's back. Marvin Mims is dead. I just want to point that. out. He got one catch versus prevent defenses on two targets dead. He's done. Troy Franklin got more snaps. Yeah, Troy Franklin. Hopefully he continues to produce.

Yeah, Sean Jeffers actually was the first one to catch the name change. So shout out. I'll give you your name back, Lucas. There you go, AJ Hawk. All right. I want to talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield because it just got interesting. like Dark Queen Duck would say let's get dangerous. That's a whole shot white things. Right. He is really bad. 72.3% of the snaps though. 10 carries with a 43.5% rush share. 15 routes on 27 dropbacks.

So we like that. A 5.1% target share he had one target. Rush 10 for 18 yards with one catch and five. Bucky though didn't look tremendously better in terms of his stat line. But the snaps are starting to creeper. way, seven carries a 30% rush share compared to 43. It's already starting to turn. Yeah,

you had the seven carries five routes run on 27 dropbacks. So guys, it's slowly already starting to happen. I said week six, we were talking on the podcast not long ago. I've been saying that in the Discord. I think it might be before

week six and now Rashad White is injured. What are we taking away from this backfield? Well, if he seriously injured, he came back in the game and see like he Yeah, I think he's okay. I think he's going to be fine. I saw a report today where he was nicked up. That's on me.

So he suffered a groin injury in the game, but he did return. I mean, you never know, but I think we expect him to play next week. I just, I can't watch this guy run anymore, man. Like, I'm just so sick and tired of watching Rashad White. Is this panic still? Like, are we panics telling now? I don't know. Panic cell for what?

No. If you get it, too, are you taking it? Like, probably. maybe I think so yeah I don't know if I am like so here's like last year this kind of started where it was like Rashad White looked like garbage early on and he wasn't even producing and he was like the expected fantasy points guy and then what happened is that no one actually took his job and he just stayed in his job and he caught a bunch of passes and it actually was fine and then he rose in value and like that is a plausible way this goes like I don't it's it's one

thing when we were talking about Rashad White being like a third fourth round redraft pick and I was like you do not want to bet your third fourth round redraft pick on this bad running back holding off a rookie all season but I don't know if I if I could only toss like a late second in dynasty and managed to get Rashad White on my team and just bet that he's going to last the rest of this season and maybe beyond like the one thing he has for him is he has past catching ability right we saw that in week one where he rushed like garbage but he ended up still being a very good start because he's a genuinely good receiving back. So I don't know.

I can't get my head inside what Rashad Walsinger thinks and does. But I fact I would probably still be trying to get an early two. But I'd probably just wait until he hopefully gets his ass in the end zone a couple of times and then try to panic sell instead of doing it right off of his worst game. Like I don't think Bucky's just coming out and getting 70% of the snaps next week, right? It's probably going to be a little bit more gradual. So don't you think Rashad White probably has a good fantasy performance

at some point before it fully turns? I haven't looked at there. I maybe need to hold. Maybe there are the Rashad Whiteball in this fucking show. Jesus Christ. Like, so I have some Rashad White and I've been trying to sell him for all of last year.

I was trying to sell him for literally any first. Like, give me any first. And I couldn't make that happen. Would I love? to take an early second right now for the i i don't i don't if you guys have certain leagues where there's just like one player in that league you can't sell no matter what you do i i have like shot white share in one type of a loa that's been like that yeah so i don't know yeah he probably i i mean he's been playing in in the red zone i believe uh bucky has not been involved like in terms of running

routes at all so yeah i mean as long as that stays the case then yeah white has the path to like a decent weekly fantasy performance but it like as soon as bucky irving is running like a 35% of route share to whites 40% or whatever it's joker like that that's that's that's when it's done is when yeah the routes come up for bucky and do i do i think it's next week or the next couple weeks maybe not but yeah i i think week six or week seven is a plausible time for this to be like a 50-50 backfield and that i've got the player you need to send Rashad White to for a second. Find that sick,

degenerate bastard in your league that's out there starting Rico Dowdell and Chase Brown because there's zero RB boys and go pry a second for Rashad White. Because they're going to look at his... Hold on. They're going to sit there and they're going to actually think he's a wide receiver because he catches passes like a wide receiver and doesn't run like a running back. You can disguise Rashad White to those sickos for a second.

I don't think that's actually true. I think the zero R.B sickos are ideologically opposed to the Roshad White play. I think you have to find whatever, whatever, someone in your league, hopefully, who's an RB, bro, and just watch Macheco go down to injury and just watch Mixing. We did have one. That's the guy who I think might toss, like, somewhere out there is a guy that's like, I got to get rid of my, I got to get Rashad White. Maybe I'll give you a 27-2 and a 26-3. for Rashad White, maybe even a couple fab dollars on top. But it's the only running back worse than Rashad White right now.

That's actually the leadback for a team. D'Andre Swift, who's just zero. He's a zero. I've never had any expectations for, I've had, I've had the low, like DeAndre Swift is just our expectations were low, but holy fuck sign. Like, all I, all I wanted from you, DeAndre Swift was just to like, look, just like the slightest little bit of mediocre in what I thought was going to be a good offense

and you can probably hold the job that you're paid $24 million for for one season. But he might not make it through the month. That was just terrible. I said it last week. He's the Dynasty Zero. He said you like the role doesn't matter.

The dude sucks. He's got to be the worst running back in the NFL right. He might be worse than Rashad White are actually running the football. Truly disgusting. I think we have the winner of the Bengals backfield. It's the last backfield I want to talk about before we quickly do player picks. The other backfields I think are pretty tough. We know Braylin Allen's not actually going to eat in the Brie's Hall.

I had that listed. The only thing I'll say about the Colts one and maybe Jacob, you have like a little bit of point in this. Oh, God. JT didn't play in the fourth and they said it was game script. Does he actually hurt? What is this? Is this voodoo-in magic? He was injured?

Like, you have a better beat on the Colts. I wrote about this. I've been asked about this on several. applications. It's inexplicable and it's embarrassing. My conspiracy theory, which I don't even, it's not true. Don't listen to me. It's just the only thing that I've come up with in my mind is that, so for people who didn't watch this game, which shout out to you, you had a better Sunday than I did. Jonathan Taylor is playing great the whole game. He's like the only thing that's working on the Colts. He's averaging 9.6 yards per touch, has 135 yards. On this drive in the late third,

he has an 18-yard screen pass. He falls out up with a 29-yard run. Then he gets another run. They get it down to a third and one. He comes off the field for that play. He's tired. The quarter ends. So we have a full three minutes.

James Seeking gets to pick any play he wants. Presumably he can pick any personnel grouping he wants because they've just had a big rest. They come out third and one. They run speed option left to Tray Sermon. They lose three yards on that play. which was probably the median outcome. And then they kick a field goal and they missed. At the time it was 13-3.

If they convert that, they score touchdown. They get the three points. They're totally in the game. After that, Taylor doesn't play a snap for the rest of the game, including a drive when they get it back down 13 with 11 minutes left, where you're probably not running the ball, but it's at least conceivable. My, like, hairbrain theory is that Taylor was just so angry about not being in the game when the third and won that he, like, yelled at Shane Stuyken and, like, said some sort of,

like rude thing about his family and then he was benched like because i don't understand what else happened they asked taken about it after the game he doesn't elaborate at all they're like uh he's he's like oh yeah it was a decision we made like it was game script whatever elaborates on a little bit more the next day he says like oh we were planning to pass the ball so that was why we didn't have them in there uh which doesn't make sense by the way because taylor was running all the routes in week one yeah something i think i think i'm in with i'm on the tinfoil hat train i think something was said. Right. That's the thing. It's like it wasn't how they played it. They were down nine for most of the second half on their drives in week one. They let Taylor play. And then like they had a press cover or they

showed up in the locker room. They asked Taylor a bunch of questions after the game. And he was so heated. And like, he was like practically yelling. And he's not normally like this. And they're like, what's wrong? He was like, we need accountability. We need to have urgency at practice. We don't practice hard enough. Like it was very much like, I'm mad at the coach vibes. So something is rotten down there in the state of Denmark. I don't necessarily expect it to carry over, but I just thought that was something was off about that. It didn't make any sense.

It got to the point that the announcers, like Fox was doing the game. They have the sideline reporter, walk down to the Colt sideline, ask the medical staff if he's hurt. And then we have to go live to the sideline reporters. Oh, yeah, I just talked to Jonathan Taylor. He says he's okay.

like it's it's embarrassing when your personnel decisions are so perplexing that the broadcast assumes that you're lying about an injury yeah and they have to go and cover that coming back from commercial that means you're just a fucking idiot yeah yeah well said that's why i wanted to get it because i couldn't figure it out i spent all day trying to figure it out uh it made no sense to me but i do want to talk with the bangles backfield because i think they both suck i think we sat here wanting to know who like who was it who wasn't on the bangles that you that you you actually needed. Well, let's, let's look at it. 83.6% of the snaps and 24 routes on 41 dropbacks for Zach Moss so far. That's 58.5% of dropbacks and a 2.8% target share. All right. The result is 12 for 34. Chase Brown, 16.4% of the snaps, 18.2% of the rushes.

Four routes run on 41 dropbacks, 0% target share, 4 for 31 rushing. You know what this got you last week? 5.7 points from Zach Moss, 3.1 points. from Chase Brown the answer. Neither of them. They suck. Chase Brown is Chase Brown. Zach Moss is your typical plotter that needs to fall into the end zone. The Bengals can't run the goddamn football.

None of them. Neither of them. They both suck. Chase Brown sucked. I don't know. It's garbage. The only thing I'll say for a takeaway. They're tuned for player pets. Yeah. The only thing, the only thing I can say about this is Zach Moss hasn't been good enough to pull away from them

potentially giving Chase Brown more work. because he has been so bad. So this can shift doesn't look like they want to. So I don't know what to do to take away from this. I mean, they get Washington, which is why I'm assuming you're playing Zach Moss for player picks. But let's,

well, they get Washington and Carolina. So short term, Zach, like when I, short term, Zach Moss is trending up and that he has this great role. And he gets an incredible matchup this week.

Long term, like Zach Moss is, is doing Zach Moss stuff. So if you are Chase, Brown talent truther. You can probably like talk yourself into maybe he gets a chance over time because they want something more explosive. My fear, and this was like why I was in on Chase Brown at a speculative price, but then was

pretty out on Chase Brown when his price got really high towards the end of draft season was like, we all know what Zach Moss is. He's not good. But he is reliable. And he'll pass protect well and he'll, you know, get you what's there and not anything more. And Chase Brown is not those things. So he needs to give you a reason to play him.

He needs to give you a reason to sacrifice reliability. And right now, small sample hasn't done it yet. And I haven't seen anything from him as a college player, NFL player, that suggests that that's what he's going to do. So I don't think it's like a spot where they're playing this dad running back and there's some incredible talent behind him. It's like they're playing one deficient back who's deficient in one way. And they could play another running back who's deficient in another way.

And I don't really agree or do. disagree with what they're choosing to do because I think they're just choosing to make running back not matter versus embracing mistakes in you know clearly chase brown's more explosive player but i just don't think he's necessarily bringing you so much more the whole package that it's worthwhile so they might just keep doing what they're doing yeah i agree with that i agree i i'm just want to say i'm really mad i felt for the chase brown siob i was i was completely i'm sorry that's my fault yeah i was ready to give like the or stick on like the football guy take if he he he can't can't pass protect. He's never going to see the field. And then there, yeah, then the team and

every beat reporter was coming out and calling him the RB1. I shrug my shoulders. Okay, his, his price isn't reflecting that. Let's kind of get on the Chase Brown train here. Nope. Yeah, complete. It's legit weird, man. It's my fault. How often did B reporters ever act this way about like the not boring player, right? Like normally B reporters defer too much to the boring player. And usually gets proven to not necessarily be the case early season. I can't remember a recent scenario like this where the beat reporters have been so bullish about a young player being ahead of a veteran player than to just instantly be wrong. Like I'm surprised by this.

Like I got a little bit nervous about the Chase Brown when he was getting drafted ahead of like running backs actually think are good. But I'm still very surprised at how wide the gap was going to be. 80% snap rate for Moss in that game. I didn't see that coming a week too. Yeah. that's i'll take the l i apologize i was in ryan's dms too often in the chase brown trade uh i told everyone else to draft them that's on me i'm still hoping for like one good game where like i don't

know he like yeah exactly but i'm panic selling for any third any third you can have him free off my rosters any third and like five fab is he's all he's all yours take him um i'm out i'm completely out so he might still end up being the most traded player in dynasty that's why my hot take was it was because I thought he would be at least decent. Maybe it's just everybody's selling off of them. Yeah, for anything you can. All right. I think that's it for backfields unless you guys want to just mention anything else.

You have any backfields, anything you want to look for in week three? I think that's a pretty resounding no. You want way too many words on backfields. I know a good weekly article that talks about that on a website called thinking about thinking. Yeah, that's where you want to be. Just seriously, can't get over that. Giovante Williams is the only player with 14 and a half weighted opportunities and the only one that didn't crack like 12 points. Like that to me, it took me a day to really like let that register.

Kind of insane. Like I don't, this is going to, this is going to come off as bag defending because it is. But like, I mean, Javante, like, obviously future does a runner find as a receiver. but even that notwithstanding Sean Payton is just like what he's doing with the running game where it's like oh we take our receiving tight end off the field and we put our blocking tight end on the field

and we call halfback dive exactly where everybody knows it's gonna like it's just it's bad like I don't know what happens to some of these coaches man like somewhere somewhere along the way these coaches used to be innovators and like how is it that like someone like, right? Because it's not like Sean Payton's been stupid all along, right?

I know people will be like, oh, it was all Drew Breeze, whatever. It's not, it's not, that's not the case. Like, yes, he had Drew Breeze and yes, that was incredible. But like, Sean Peyton was introducing a lot of new things into football 15, 20 years ago that other teams weren't doing. And it was great. And it was fantastic. And he was legitimately one of the best offensive coaches of this century.

And as bad as he's been with Broncos, it's not going to take away from how impressive he was with the, with the Giants and then with the Saints. but like what the fuck man like at what point do these coaches that have that at one point in their lives worked so hard to come up with these tiny little edges to come up with new things like when does the switch flip where they're just like I found it this is my offense there's nothing to counter this I'm going to run my offense and nothing's going to change like because we we just keep seemingly seeing it with these different coaches whether it be Chip Kelly whether it be Sean Payton where it's like these guys that have some sort of edge that have some sort of

innovative scheme, just refuse to deviate off of whatever their thing is. And it's so incongruent with whatever their mindset was that brought them to being successful in the first place. Like what happened to your intellectual curiosity, Sean Payton? I don't know. It's just he sucks, the Broncos sock and everything sucks. I was led to believe that he would actually be a good coach because the Saints somehow tricked the Broncos into sending them a first and,

second round pick for Sean Payton the third. So he was equivalent to a first round pick player on a rookie contract, whenever they knew they were going to get rid of 79 or however many millions of dollars in dead cap. And man. Here we are. And then Sean Payton tricked himself into thinking they tricked everyone else by letting everyone know that they made a mistake letting him get bonnix.

Because if this is what your thought process was for that. Jesus Christ, brutal. I was expecting three. What? Four, four or five first round picks and total now for John Trey. What we have now. Bo necks. Yeah.

Yeah. It's so brutal. I'm sorry. He was so cocky about it too. I know. I'm sorry, buddy. Broncos were so cocky this off season. They're like, you know what?

We are doing some really smart things here. All right. We're not going to win this season, but we're going to look good in our losses and everybody will be excited. And we're going to have this awesome offense because it's my players. And this is what we get. I didn't have Lucas Tangent on my bingo card tonight. I don't know.

Like Bleacher Report puts out the little, you know, like report cards for how your team did in the offseason, what you're expecting. You know, I'm seeing like 25% A and like over 60% B range. So I don't I don't know. He got me to say I believe on this show. weeks ago. Yeah. And I have to live with that. That's embarrassing.

I'm going to clip that. You just reminded me of that. I'm sorry. I'm going to clip that with this rent in college. Like nine years ago. That's disturbing. Absolutely disturbing. That right there kept me going for years.

Years. I knew that Peyton was gone. All right. I understand this. I know that my Lord's Savior, he moved on. We see the room. other things. Like for the video listeners,

we can see the memorabilia. We understand. We know you're in pain. That's, we understand. Last, I'm not at myself more than I'm at Sean Payton. Like I fell for,

I'm mad at Sean Payton. Yeah, you should have listened. And I, and I'm mad at myself for doing it. At least you stop being in at RB17, Giovante, like happening through the,

I saved you from that. That's true. By the way, I wrote up that big rant on, in my, uh, Sunday night. piece that I titled Sean Payton's

very bad, no good day. And it made pardon my take the pardon my take podcast on Barstool Post Sports. Really? Sean Payton rant verbatim. Send that to me. That's awesome.

We've got to post that from the Dynasty Points account. That's amazing. Shout out. Remember us when you, when you get that big. Quick break player picks. We get out of here. Then this two hour and 15 minute long podcast.

Sit tight. I love this show. I mean, I really mean it. I really mean it. This show is awesome. I can honestly, truly say there's none like it. If you're not familiar with player picks, this is what we do. This is the dynasty show, but we need something to brag about.

So each week we pick players outside of the top quarterback outside of the top 15, running back outside of the top 15, wide receiver outside of the top 30 and tight end outside of the top 12. We total those points up. And the winner at the end of the year gets to pick the drinks of choice for the other people during the live draft stream. Jacob got off to an astounding. lead came back down to earth last week.

He's still in the lead with 132.36. I had a hell of a week. Came back with 99.32 total. Lucas is at 76.46 and Ryan at 62.94. I was caught accidentally trying to cheat today and was looking at half point. We do this by full PPR. So let's start with, let's let's go in reverse order. Ryan, who do you got?

All right. So quarterback, a little bit of a. tough week, as we've talked about a lot of the quarterback play today. We'll say there's a clear advantage if you're one of the first two people to get into this sheet and pick who either Thomas or Lucas did this week, I would say. But going Kirk Cousins, obviously, I don't think he's right. Like, there were so many throws the other night that I just, it's kind of weird to watch that from Kirk Couss. I was better than week one. Yeah. So we're going to, we'll say, continue the upward trajectory from week one to week two to week three.

At least there's a chance for a shootout with Kansas City. Running back, Zach Charbonnet against the Dolphins, if he's going to play 95% of the snaps, like I'm going to play Zach Charbonnet. We're going to go Rashid-Shahed against Philadelphia. Obviously, the Saints offense is rolling. Shaheed, back-to-back, 50-plus yard touchdowns. I don't even, the schematic matchup, I guess, is an amazing. Philly doesn't play as much zone as the last two teams.

But, you know, I think in this role, Shahid could be more than just like a zone beat or big play guy. So we'll have to see. And then tight end is just totally dead. We're going for maximum routes with Colby Parkinson against the 49ers. Yep. I like that. I will say on the Kirk Cousins thing because we didn't get to talk about it much today.

Did anyone else feel like like when after the Mooney touchdown, he stopped worrying about his foot? Like it really felt like even on that last drive, he actually kind of looked like Kirk Cousins, where he was kind of stepping into those throws down the side. Like they were picking on the rookie or whatever, which is fine. But like it kind of felt like he didn't care about his foot

during those last like two drives. So maybe this is, you know, a little bit mental as well. Maybe. Well, that last drive especially, I thought was exactly what he needed.

I mean, at that point, right, you're doing the hurry up. There's no time to think, right? There's no time to worry about what's this new offense that I'm in? Is my foot okay? You're just reading and reacting and you're going.

And I thought that was exactly the situation that he needed. It seemed like he got out of his own head. He delivered the ball beautifully that entire drive. And yeah, I mean, you watch this outside throws. Is he going to mistake anybody for Anthony Richardson out there? Not exactly on the velocity. But he's never really been known for his arm strength. And he's always still managed to be a very good, proficient NFL, back just by being accurate, by making the right reads. I got more optimistic over the course of that game. The major key, though, for him and especially for any Atlanta receiving weapon, is that going to be a signal to the team to get more optimistic?

Because minus 11% pass-outher-expectation week one, they come in minus 9% week two. That's like putting a hard cap on the ceiling of London and makes basically everybody else borderline unstartable. other than Bijon, obviously. So hopefully we get to see the team buy-in to Kirk Cousins a little bit more. Yeah, I just thought that was, I just thought that drive looked really good. And like, I wanted to see some of those deep shots go to London, but like, let's face it. They literally put London on that left side to pick on him near the goal line and then he beat Slay.

Like they were obviously going after the rookie. Lucas, who do you got? So I went with the theme of trying to take a player from you all. and throw them into my lineup as best as I could. So I went with Dan Arnold as a shout out to Thomas going up against Houston. I still like the matchup. Throwback for Jacob got Tony Pollard going up against Green Bay and he's been dominating the Red Zone work.

And then because I couldn't do Jalen Waddle and I didn't want to do Zach Charbonnet, I did Jonu Smith with Miami as just like a throw to Miami for Ryan. It wasn't perfect, but I tried Ryan. And then wide receiver, I don't know. I thought that wide receiver was really gross this week. And I couldn't find anybody that like I was excited about. So I'm going with to Marcus Robinson for the Rams. Just they got through the ball of somebody.

Maybe. Maybe they just decided to run the ball a lot. But yeah, that's going to be my line for this week. All right. Jacob, you have to go because I just realize I have the same receiver as Ryan. Knights, the Battle of Richiejaheed. For the record, I also wanted. Wait, did you have that?

I went after you. Did I miss up? Yeah, it's fine. I'll change it. I'll change it. I noticed that right away, because I was planning, of course, to pick Rashid because who wouldn't? And then I noticed that both Tom and Ryan had already picked Rashid and I was

curious to see who was going to get that one off first. I will be taking Caleb Williams, which is not a fun thing to say. But I have been too busy writing to have watched his. quarterback school video yet. So I will regret this in two hours and five minutes. It's not good. Quarterback School of Patreon. But why am I picking Caleb Williams?

Because what happens when an unmoving object goes against a, I don't know, what's the name for like a force that can't stop anything? Just nothing. Just goes against literally fucking nothing. That's when Gus Bradley and the Colts defense is they don't have very many good defensive players to start with, but they have now lost Sanis and Epiccom, their best pass thruster. They've lost to Forrest Buckner, their best player. They've lost Juju Brants, their best outside corner.

And both Quiti Pei and Lyotu Latu are also injured and are questionable for week three. So I don't think they're going to have much of an issue getting on track here in this game in the dome against the hapless Indianapolis Colts defense. I'm going to know Zach Moss, who sucks, but he gets the Washington commanders. And he apparently is going to get 80% of the snaps. And I think that we saw a running back who sucks. sucks, getting 80% of the snaps against the commanders payoff last week in Devon Singletary. And I picked him. So why don't I just keep doing that with Zach Moss?

Just attack the commanders? Yeah. I'm going to attack them with bad running backs to get snaps. I'm going to double down on how bad the cults are with Roman Dunesay, bringing it back with Caleb Williams. He gets to attack Jalen Jones. There's one of those charts that I saw earlier with cornerbacks. And it was like their yards per row run given up or something with their,

coverage grade and Jalen Jones was like breaking the chart with just being absolutely putrid. And he's probably the better of the two outside corners for the Colts right now. So I think it's going to be a nice week for Roma Dunezay. And then Mike Gisicki, nine targets, seven catches, 91 yards from Mike Gisicki. One of my old flames. I played him in DFS this week opposite Rishie Rice. It was truly enjoyable, sweating him, seeing if you get in the 100-yard bonus all night. He also gets to take advantage of the Washington Committee.

Andrews defense. I think we might have one more week without T. Higgins. And Mike Gassicki just seems to be the number two target, maybe the number one target in that offense right now. So, uh, give me Gassiki. Yeah, that's totally fair. I hate you. Yeah, damn. I might have picked the wrong tight end. I was in here before you. I'm going big because I got to catch up. I got, I got it every week. We just have to, you know, win the battle of attrition and just matriculate the ball downfield and slowly outscore Jacob every week to catch up. I'm going Gino Smith, my goat, you know, my late round quarterback daddy. We're going Gino Smith versus Miami.

I think they can get out early. I'm going Brian Robinson Jr. versus Cincinnati. I think Cincinnati's run defense is beatable. B. Rob just has the role. He is the dude in every aspect. So I like that. I pivoted receiver to Jerry Judy, who seems to be the only receiver in Cleveland that can catch a fucking ball.

Cooper was dead. And he is dropping passes. Sings is Cooper toast? Sorry. Amari Cooper? Sorry. Yes. Is it over?

Is it over? You were fucking tweeting, weren't you? I wasn't tweeting. I was DMing with Scott. Anyway. Damn it, Barrett. Ask him of Amari Cooper's washed. I'll ask him that.

I think his answer might be yes. His separation metrics and stuff look awful, is my understanding. I haven't seen what I want to know. I can go under the hood. But yeah, the ass is not good for a problem. Mari-Gouper right now. I mean, the expected fantasy points are kind of incredible for Mark Cooper.

So I don't know which way you want to take it. I would say like a like a five out of ten on like that he might be washed panic scale to me right. Well, I know who's not washing that offense. And it's Jerry Judy, who is 11 and a half points and 12 and a half points, which in this game would do wonders for me. And I'm going with the human target machine with Jacoby Brissette in Hunter, Henry. the only weapon they choose to use except for A, I like the Polk touchdown.

So the Polk touchdown was good. But yeah, he's the, he's the only guy with that has the heart of Jacoby Brissette. Like he's just, he's just him. Hunter Henry and Mike Isicki going absolutely ham on Sunday was it felt like we were back in like 2019. Like that was like, that was like, what the hell are we watching? We're just watching Hunter Henry and Mike Isickie just spam like four yard targets repeatedly. all we needed was like an Austin Hooper five catch game. We really would have went back in time with the old top 12 of the dynasty tight ends.

Just truly remarkable. So that's it. That's the show for today. What an absolute marathon. If you guys keep liking these shows, we're going to keep hitting you with as much information as we possibly can because, like I said, you guys have been showing up in droves.

Our live audience has been phenomenal. If you're listening to this via podcast and you're still here, we absolutely love you all. Again, just continuing hammering the download. I got a bonus episode from Dynasty 101 from Jacob that we're going to release later in the week to the Dynasty Points Only Feed. You're going to be want to be locked into. Jacob, you've got more thinking about thinking. Yeah, we wrote a normally I run an intro to my Hitchhiker's Guide piece on Sunday night.

And then I write the rest of it on Monday night. And then my intro was so long that I thought that nobody would actually read the Hitchhiker's Guide. So I released the intro as a standalone piece on Monday morning. and that's more of a look at my thoughts on why the NFL is so difficult to watch right now. If you like game theory stuff, I talk about whether we're reaching a Nash equilibrium and pass right over expectation. And then I wrote The Hitchhiker's Guide up, released that this morning, went through all the utilization stuff. I will have the streamer stockwatch up probably on Friday. I'll have a full dynasty ranks update, full disclosure.

The plan was tonight. I didn't expect we were going to record two hours and 16 minutes. minutes. So it might be tomorrow night on the Dynasty Ranks update. And then I'll get a Dynasty 101 thing out there as well. I got to do one of those Dynasty rank updates too. God damn. Ryan? Yeah. What day is it God? Today's Tuesday, right? So Friday night, you can catch us right here myself and Jake Tribby on Fantasy Points YouTube channel. The underdog drafter party. If you play DFS or if you like draft and not an underdog, you're going to Underdog Battle Royale, really fun game, a lot softer than DFS, lots of prize pools to do one.

I highly recommend checking that out. And then advanced matchups drops Friday mornings. That's just digging into the FantasyPoint status suite and looking for schematic angles for your DFS lineups for your profits. So yeah, check that out on FantasyPoints.com. Hey, and people are loving it too. We're getting a ton of subs through that show alone. So if you're not wanting an edge, I mean, you've got to be out of your mind. Lucas?

Right now I've been doing Fantasy War for Fantasy Points. It is back. Drop the update this morning really early. So we got two weeks of data on that. Have two Fantasy War articles out right now. We will see if I can get third out this week, doing lots of traveling, but also then working on some lineup optimizers, mainly right now on the college football side. those have been dropping exclusively in the Discord so far.

They have been winning people money, so make sure you are getting into the Discord for that. Have even more lineups that are now going to be coming out not only on Friday, but also on Saturday for all of the game slates and still working on some prop that stuff. But that's later to come. So lots of things cooking right now. Lucas, are we going to win at the weekend or what?

Do we better win it this weekend, daggummit? If we don't, I am going to be so upset. This room will be on fire if we do not win it this weekend. If we win by 50, it might still be on fire. So I might have to be broadcasting from a different location. We shall see next week. It's going to be nuts. It's arguably the second most important road game we've had in the last decade

with Georgia two years ago being the most important. it. One of the biggest storylines of college football season, though, Oklahoma's first SEC game. Game of the week. And Josh Hypo going back. Yeah. I must say, my typical Devy slash CTC strategy of being a homer because I don't know enough players, really paying off this year, I drafted Dylan Samson like seven rounds ahead of ADP in several different leagues because I didn't consult an ADP source first, and I just thought he was the truth. And then I felt really dumb when I looked at consensus ADP. And the ADP was

fucking dumb. How about that? Because he scores like four touchdowns every single week. Eddie's the goat. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. For myself, my second article for Fantasy Points Ever should be going up. Two players that you should buy high and two players you should sell low.

It should be going up sometime this week. I'm sure that's not going to get met with some fierce opinions. But I'm here for it. I'm ready for it. I'm happy to provide you more content. And please go. read Hermes' new article that dropped on fantasy points.com. This man had such a creative concept.

He and I worked through this thing. He basically introduced the three true outcomes of baseball into fantasy football and applied it to Anthony Richardson as to why he is the, as Joe Dolan put Adam Dunn of fantasy football. That's a really good. That's a great concept. Yeah. It is, it is up now.

if you haven't read it, go and read it. It is a truly unique idea, which is very hard to do in this fantasy space. So please check that out. I'll link that over to you, Jacob. It is a must read in my opinion. It is very creative. I truly mean that because like I said,

and I keep saying, I promise dynasty content. And it's coming every single week. More and more and more and more. We're here. It's our season. Regardless if it's a redraft or best ball, whatever,

I love this show. I love all of you. I love the co-host. We'll be back next week. As always, remember the clear-outes full hearts can never lose in your best days. God damn. They're always bent tilting. Good night, everybody.