Fantasy Football Daily - Adam Levitan’s 2026 ADP Targets, Fades & Bounceback Players That Will WIN You Your League

Episode Date: March 31, 2026

🎧 You’re already listening—now ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠JOIN THE FANTASY POINTS FAMILY!⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 🏈 💰 Use promo code FFD26 for 10% OFF at checkout! ⬆️ 🚨 Check out the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FANTASY POINTS FANTASY YOUTUBE!⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 🚨 Where to find us: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/⁠⁠TheOGFantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/⁠⁠adamlevitan⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/⁠⁠FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 👾 Join the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FANTASY POINTS DISCORD!⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 👾 Fantasy Football Daily with Theo Gremminger is your must-listen podcast for sharp, actionable fantasy football analysis throughout the NFL season. Hosted by veteran analyst Theo Gremminger, the show delivers daily breakdowns of player performance, usage trends, injuries, waiver wire targets, start-sit decisions, and forward-looking strategy for redraft, dynasty, and best ball leagues. Theo blends data-driven insights with film-based context to help fantasy managers stay ahead of the market and make confident lineup decisions. Whether you are chasing weekly wins, playoff upside, or long-term roster value, Fantasy Football Daily provides concise, high-impact analysis designed to give you a real edge in every format. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by FedEx. These days, the Power Move isn't having a big metallic credit card to drop on the check at a corporate lunch. The real Power Move is leveling up your business with FedEx intelligence, and accessing one of the biggest data networks powered by one of the biggest delivery networks. Level up your business with FedEx, the new Power Move. One other player that you listed as overvalued is Carnell Tate, who's the odds on favorite to be the first wide receiver off the board in this year's NFL draft. Your thoughts on Tate and why are you fading him at this cost?

How does a guy who has never had more than 52 catches in his season, and I understand he had a lot of good players on his team, but never more than 52 catches in the season, and then in the biggest games this past year against the toughest competition, against Texas, he has two catches. Indiana, Big Ten Championship, four for 45 and one. Against Miami in the playoff games they lost, 3.37. In the biggest games, there was no production.

Normally, those guys go in like the 20s. How does Carnell Tate end up in everyone's mock to the Cleveland Browns with that kind of production level? So I don't know, man. It just scares me from a prospect perspective. And then if he's going to go to Cleveland, how excited can we be about that? That's him. That's the old cheat.

discussing early 2026 ADP values and bounceback candidates with Adam Levitan of Established the Run. Theo Greminger, Fantasy Football Daily on the Fantasy Points Podcast Network and Fantasy Points YouTube. Excited to talk ball. A lot of these drafts are starting earlier and earlier. And Adam, like, we've always had this best ball right, you know, before the NFL draft. That's been for several years. But now you're starting to see more and more redraft leagues propping up. FFPC is doing 350s right now.

So we actually have some real ADP to talk about a lot of money's already moving and ADPs are getting established earlier and earlier. How static do you think ADPs are? Like, is this something where you're going to actually see a lot of change or ADP is going to be pretty similar now barring injury when we're actually drafting in August? Oh, there'll be change a ton. I mean, just last year, Emeka Agbuka was going like 110 overall. He closed at like 40 overall or something like that. I could come up with a ton more guys who's ADP's. moved a ton. So yeah, I think you'll see rounds and rounds and rounds of movement before August.

And some of that will be injury-based. Some of that will be vibe-based. Some of that will be coaching quote-based. I mean, Trayvion Henderson, nothing happened last year with Trayvon-Henderson. And his ADP went up like 30 spots within, what, two weeks there at the end. So, yeah, there can be a lot of factors that change ADP. I think what we're seeing now is I would not put a ton of stock into it whatsoever. Preseason touchdowns look pretty good for Travion and Henderson. The vibes were immaculate. You had a couple of week period there, but yeah, that didn't always work out.

Egbuka's super interesting. Maybe we'll discuss him today. But the player that I really want to pick your brain on when looking at bounceback candidates, and it's weird to even talk about this player as a guy who sort of failed miserably last year. But one of the worst picks you could have made at ADP was Justin Jefferson last year. complete train wreck disaster with J.J. McCarthy behind center was a locked in first rounder in 2025. Now you're seeing him sort of at the one two turn area on underdog and similar range in these FFPC 350s. Kyler Murray acquired by Minnesota, I'm assuming you're on Kyler's going to

win that job. And how do you see Justin Jefferson in 2026? Is this a absolute smash value? or do you still have like a little bit of caution with approaching him? Yeah. So in the Kevin O'Connell era, the only quarterback to fail is J.J. McCarthy. In other words, Kirk Cousins averaged 18 fantasy points per game in 2022. Kirk Cousins 19 fantasy points per game in 2023. Josh Dobbs shows up off the street in 2023 in relief of Cousins. He gets 16 fantasy points per game.

Nick Mullins did it. Sam Darnel did it. Carson Wends did it. They all did it. supported Justin Jefferson, the only one not to do it of that list. And by the way, it's not the greatest list ever. It includes cousins, Dobbs, Mowlands, Darnold, and Wentz. The only one to fail was J.J. McCarthy. And so I'm not like huge Kyler fan, but at 10th overall, 11th overall, 12th overall, I think that Kyler will do enough to pay that off with upside for Justin Jefferson

right now. So yeah, I like Justin Jefferson. to bounce back here. I don't think there's a huge thing separating him from Amman Ra, CD, kind of that tier in there with those guys. But I think he's right there, you know, C.D. Amon Ra, Justin Jefferson there at the back end of the first round. Yeah, and you can kind of go back to like early, early Kyler career. Like his best season, uh, early on was DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona. So like people sort of pointing at Kyle Murray, can he move the needle? D. Hop nearly had a wide receiver one season. Uh, this is Justin Jefferson. pretty much in his prime.

So I think I'm with you. Also gives you the balance where you can start your draft, running back wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver with Justin Jefferson. You can do so much. Very interesting stuff there. So I think we're both in on him. Another player who last year steamed up, tight end won overall as a rookie.

Brock Bowers, there was sort of like people just steamed him up like crazy last year, especially in the tight end premium drafts. In FFPC main events per fantasy mojo, he was like the fifth overall pick last August, similarly in the 350s. Now he's going off the board as the tight end two behind Trey McBride. Do you see this as a he can be the Jackson Smith and Jigba in the Clint Kubiak scheme in Vegas? How enthusiastic are you about Brock Bowers right now?

Current underdog value 23 and locked in the first round in FFPC, but usually a second half of the first round type guy. Yeah, I think in those. underdog formats. I think he is one of the more undervalue guys that goes in the first three rounds is Brock Bowers. You saw last year like you don't know where it's going to come from exactly, but when you get a tight end spike score in the playoff weeks like we saw with Kyle Pitts, McBride had one. It is just such an unlock to advance your team because so many of these teams in the basketball playoffs are good. They're deep. They're healthy. But they don't all have good tight ends, you know. And so if you get one that goes for 30 or 40, it's such a huge difference.

So just from a schematic perspective, if you were playing really large field best ball stuff, I think that makes sense. From a micro perspective, I mean, it just can't get any worse. Going back to the preseason, I don't know if you remember, there was worry about Brock Bowers in the preseason not playing all the snaps with the starters. And a lot of these anti-preseason freaks, of which I disagree with many of them vehemently, these people are like, it doesn't matter. It's just preseason. Fast forward to the regular season. They came out of the gates before Brock Bowers injury. He was not playing every snap. He was losing snaps to Michael Mayer. Okay, I do not think that is going to happen going forward in any stretch. They're also going to have

better offensive line play. They're also going to have better quarterback play with Mendoza. I mean, and even despite everything that went wrong last year for Bowers, he still finished third in fantasy points per game among qualifying tight ends just behind George Kittle. And so you mentioned Clint Kubiak. Like, we'll talk about offense coordinators a ton on here. I think it's really important. Clint Kubiak, to me, is one of these sharper guys I actually want to bet on in the NFL. Remember in 2024 when Clint Kubiak was with the scene, they were shredding.

And then they just got injured. Everyone, car went down, a lobby, everything. They were shredding. Then he goes Seattle, and he shreds there. He's just super adaptable to his players. So I don't want to say he's going to be like, Brock Bauer is going to be the JSN. for Clint Kubiak, but I do think he is a talent maximizer for his best players. So, yeah, I think Brock Bowers just a smash at 23 overall right now on Underdog. Yeah, I mean, the JSN one,

it's a little bit of hyperbole, but when you look at the target competition, he dodged any sort of bullet so far this offseason. I mean, they could conceivably add one of these veteran-wide receivers through a trade, but right now it's like Jalen Naylor, Tucker, Jack Besh. There's minimal target competition and I think Kubiak's scheme has just been so consolidated in the touches. So I'm feeling really, really good about Bowers. And I haven't found anybody to kind of say anything negative about Bowers so far. Yeah. Yeah, we're all in on Brock Bowers. His ADP is going to rise. The last, the only other thing I'd say is that like when you're doing data driven stuff and you use historical sample, how much do you throw out of injured samples? In other words, Brock Bowers is

really playing through an injury last year. Lamar Jackson was clearly playing through injury last year. How do you adjust for that? I think right now the reason Brock Bowers ADP is down at 23 is because people are using the data set of last year in which Brock Bowers was playing hurt for. So yeah, you know, I think that's just something to watch out for. Just briefly, the other two tight ends that are obviously up there, Trey McBride is going, you know, somewhere in the top six in FFPC. He's the tight end one off the board on underdog. Everybody would have expected that one. Whether it's with your besties or date night, Get to all the hottest concerts with GoTransit.

Go connects to all the biggest entertainment venues and makes it affordable with special e-ticket fairs. A weekend pass offers unlimited travel across the network on any weekend day or holiday for just $10. A weekday group pass offers the same weekday travel flexibility from $30 for two people up to $60 for five. So no matter what day of the week, Go's got you covered. Find out more at goadransit.com slash tickets.

Where are my gloves? Come on, heat. Winter is hard, but your groceries don't have to be. This winter, stay warm. Tap the banner to order your groceries online at voila.ca. Enjoy in-store prices without leaving your home. You'll find the same regular prices online as in-store. Many promotions are available both in-store and online, though some may vary.

When Westcham first took flight in 1996, the vibes were a bit different. different. People thought denim on denim was peak fashion. Inline skates were everywhere, and two out of three women rocked, the Rachel. While those things stayed in the 90s, one thing that hasn't is that fuzzy feeling you get when WestJet welcomes you on board. Here's to WestJetting since 96. Travel back in time with us and actually travel with us at westjet.com slash 30 years. Colston Loveland's sort of in his own little tier on both Underdog and an FFPC. Tight end three on both. FFPC, you have to use a late.

second round pick. Just your brief thoughts. Are you embracing the other two highly drafted tight ends at cost right now when you're looking at best ball and then early redraft ADP? You know, the amount of times that Jacoby Brissette was dropping back last season was like so outrageous. It's tough to normalize what he was doing. He was consistently averaging 45 to 50 dropbacks a game. Most quarterbacks are going to be around like. the 30 per game mark. And so you get these really inflated numbers for McBride and Michael Wilson. The thing is, the Cardinals are so bad. They're probably going to write it back with Brissette. What's stopping him from dropping back 40 plus times again this season? And if he does that,

yes, Trey McBride is going to absolutely smash. A lot of his points last year, if we're being fair, came in garbage time. They were down 28 to 7. And Tray McBride started having these huge drives with Brissette. That's kind of a tough archetype for me to bet on. at this cost, but he is such a good player. I'm willing to do it. I'm not going to be heavy, Trey McBride, though, at this cost. Like, I'll probably be even with the field.

Loveland, incredible player. I think there's some hidden upside in that Cole Comette could still move on. If that happened, I think it does matter. But either way, it's so clear. Colson Loveland is so incredible. I think he's a buy at current cost for me right now on Loveland. Yeah, Loveland, I keep coming up with, like, reasons not to draft him. in every single format, Dynasty, best ball, redraft.

He's so appealing because, you know, we saw the 15 target game in the playoffs, and it's just like he's got some gronk to him where he could just take over games, put up huge smash weeks. And if there is a player that's going to be the tight end one over McBride and Bowers, you don't have to go down too far. I think Loveland has the clearest path. And then the year two, you know, Johnson offense could really, really take off. It was last year and year one.

I think they were like eighth in scoring. They could break through and be like a top three scoring offense this year. So a lot to believe in in Chicago. What do you have going on this time of year over at ETR? Oh, yeah. You know, you mentioned everything coming earlier and earlier, best ball and everything else is up right now. But you guys are watching this on YouTube.

We put a ton of effort into some fancy graphics and making myself not look as disgusting. So head to establish the run on YouTube you can check out everything we're working on there totally free on the ETR YouTube. Yeah, good stuff over there. I'm actually having John Daigle on Dynasty Life soon, so you guys are definitely putting out some great stuff. Let's talk about the running back that you specifically are looking at as an ADP value.

And I think a lot of people are thinking, oh, he's going to talk Kenneth Walker. You're actually on Travis ETN, and I really like this one. ETN last year was an ADP winner, completely crushed his ADP. There was a lot of, like, discussion in the offseason between him and Bachel Tootin. And ETN was coming off for a really, really poor 2024 season where he was an ADP failure. So now he's signed with New Orleans and he's settled in. On Underdog right now, he's going off the board at like 30 overall. And he's going in a very similar range as the running back 15 and FFPC.

He's 32 overall in the last 10 days in the 350 streets over there. So right in that old school dead zone range, but some really, really appealing traits with ETN in this, in this offense in New Orleans. Yeah, you know, you talked about guys whose ADP could change. One way to think about this is what personnel moves could happen that would affect ADP. In other words, I mentioned Colquemette maybe moving on from the Bears. I'd give that maybe like 10% or 15%. But Alvin Camara, either retiring or moving on in some way, I would put closer to 50 or 60%.

And when, and if that happens, if and when that happens on Alvin Camer moving on from the Saints, Then where is Travis E.N's ADP going to be? You know, I think that's the biggest thing holding it back right now is people are like, well, Camara is still going to be there on passing downs. That's not good for ETIN. Camara being gone, though, I think you could probably see ETS get up into like 20th overall in ADP. And so they get to play the Falcons, the Bucks, the Panthers six times. They get a ton of dome games.

I think most importantly in free agency, not only did they add ETN, David Edwards gets this huge deal to play left guard. David Edwards from Buffalo, of course. offensive line could be really, really good. I'm still waiting to see what Brandon Thorne thinks when he comes out with his rankings. But yeah, I mean, I think Saints offensive line could be really good. And then you have Kellan Moore playing at the fastest pace in the entire league. And I don't think the defense is very good either. They're going to get in some shootouts there as well. So I don't really understand why Travis ETN would be the 15th running back off the board other than people are giving Camara too much work in

projection sets. Yeah, it's a really interesting take. And I think that the market is, not fully in on Kellyn Moore year two. This could be a breakout offense. We saw some real positivity with Tyler Shuck towards the end of the season, at least being able to sort of move the needle and keep this offense in a higher, higher level. And I think with ETN, just the lack of backfield competition when you go past Kamara in terms of the targets, like ETN, we've seen him have a few decent seasons.

And we saw towards the second half of last year, him have a couple of spike weeks as a receiver. I think you're talking about potentially a 65 catch season, if it all sort of falls his way this year in New Orleans. So really, really like that value, especially at the running back 15 range. It's just there's some players around him that I want no part of. And I think structurally, he allows you to add a really strong RB2 in a range that's not going to cost you a lot. Another player that last year was a huge ADP failure was Ladd-McConkie.

I mean, I remember a main event draft in Vegas where I took. took JSN over Ladd McConkey. And the guy next to me, it's like, as soon as I said Jackson Smith and Jigba, the guy next to me, he's like, Ladd McConkey. And so, like, he gets it, Ladd McConkey. I get JSC, I get JSN. Like, that's sort of like OTC decision swayed drafts last year. McConkey ended up being out targeted by Keenan Allen,

Quentin Johnson outperforming him, especially the beginning of the season. McConkey had some solid games in the middle. and then the end was disastrous, including the NFL playoffs. So really heading downward, then you get the huge Mike McDaniel signing. And the market's all in on McConkey returning value. He's at 38 overall on Underdog. So you're not really getting a huge discount, but you're still very much in on him. You're not getting a discount, but he's going like right after Garrett Wilson, like right next to Mecca, Igbuka.

You know, it's not a discount, but on Underdog, the wide receiver is going to get pumped up a lot. And so at 38, I do think he's a value. I think the reason that people are maybe think this is too high on McConkey is because of the Keenan Allen stuff. They're not waiting enough how much Keenan Allen affected Ladd. When the guy wins, Keenan Allen wins in the same area of the field, Ladd McConkey likes to win. It's really hard.

And Keenan Allen throughout his career has been a huge target earner. I mean, that's just what he does. He doesn't maybe do a lot with the targets. But how many times have you looked up and seen Keenan Allen got 10? 12, 15 targets in a game. And that's what happened to Ladd McConkey last year. I do not think Mike McDaniel is going to bring Keenan Allen back. Mike McDaniel likes fast guys.

If you look back at what Mike McDaniel has done, going back to Miami, he's always bringing in super, super fast guys. Obviously, that's not Keenan. So if they're going to roll with Ladd, Trey Harris, QJ, Gadsden, that is a chance for Lad to work inside, work the middle of the field where he does it best and now have Mike McDaniel also. So yeah, I just thought it was such a like, I was just wrong.

You know, I didn't love Ladd McConkey. I didn't take a ton of him. But when the Keenan Allen thing happened, I was like, ah, that's not going to affect Ladd that much. And it turned out it affected him massively. You know, I was just wrong. Yeah, I think a lot of us didn't factor in as much just how locked in Justin Herbert was with Keenan Allen.

It was like his guy in some of his best years. Keenan Allen comes back. And it's like, okay, veterans deference. I'm going right to Keenan Allen. I do think that helps a lot. I think it's interesting with Ladd. The Chargers offense is going to, we know it's probably going to score more points.

It'd be a little more fantasy friendly with McDaniel. I mean, I'll be shocked if it wasn't. But there's a bunch of guys sort of at cost. Are you sort of in on this entire offense taking a big step forward? You mentioned Ladd, but O'Mary in Hampton has sort of a hive right now. He's going at the one-two turn in some of these FFPCs. Arande Gadsden's everyone's sleeper tight end.

Then I think Quentin Johnston still is still. has people believing in him. I think they might take a wide receiver in the first round, too, or trade for one. Are you just kind of all in on this offense or are there guys you're sort of a little cautious about? We're behind ADP on Hampton. You know, we have Hampton around 1920 overall. He's going 15th overall on Underdog, just because I think Keaton Mitchell's good. And I think Kimani Vidal is going to play also here.

So, yeah, I think Hampton is one that's overvalued. There's a lot of trade rumors around Quentin Johnston. I know there was like some aggregated headlines that, they weren't going to trade them. I don't know. Like that just keeps coming up the Quentin Johnson headlines. And you mentioned the first round wide receiver stuff. So I'm like in kind of wait and C mode on QJ right now. I know that Harbaugh had a ton of faith in QJ. Are we sure that Mike McDaniel has a ton of faith in QJ? I am not. So yeah, I would say Hampton and QJ would be the two guys that I probably am a little queasy about. And then like in the punt range, I think both Keaton Mitchell

and Trey Harris are interesting as young guys. Mike McDaniel clearly signed off on Keaton Mitchell and then Trey Harris just like a young receiver going in the 180s with a chance to get cleared out some more room if Quentin Johnston's gone. That's interesting too. I just had Sigmund Bloom on a Dynasty Life and he's equally in on Keaton Mitchell from a dynasty lens

because it's sort of like the squint and you see some Devon A-chan type plays you can run with him. I really like that Mitchell pickup. And I think if a lot of the markets sort of assuming if Amarion Hampton goes down, you'd see Kamani Vidal as like this high-end handcuff. But Mitchell could be really electric in a McDaniel offense. Very interesting stuff. And I'll throw out just the real wildcard for this offense.

You talk about a potential QJ trade. Every time A.J. Brown is mentioned as like, hey, after June 1st, this guy's getting traded, it's going to be New England, et cetera. Like the chargers always get mentioned as well. and they have the cap space to make a big move for AJ. So I don't think that the door is closed on that one as well. And then they've been linked to guys like Casey Concepcion at 22. So really a fun offense.

And I think one we're going to be talking about all summer long. A player that is sort of kicked aside right now. And people are not even really discussing him is Travis Hunter. And it's interesting because Travis Hunter last year started to play really well, goes down with an injury. And then Jacksonville acquires Jacoby Myers. Parker Washington has this really strong end of the year. And now you have people sort of arguing who's the best value between BTJ,

Jacobi Myers, and Parker Washington. Travis Hunter's ADP is like in the relatively free range at 153.9. But you like him as a value right now. I mean, in redraft, if you're doing a redraft, how could you not take Travis Hunter at 150 right now? there is so much time until the season starts. Think about all the things that could happen between now and then from injuries to trades or whatever.

They have been adamant that they aren't going to trade Brian Thomas Jr. And I don't really blame them for that. I would not be in the business either of trading away 23-year-old wide receivers who are really cheap with Brian Thomas's skill level. But yeah, I mean, clearly it's, I understand why people are out on Travis Hunter. Kobe Myers got a bunch of money guaranteed Parker Washington. and they keep talking up. They're not trading Brian Thomas Jr.

They're saying that Travis Hunter is going to be a full-time corner. He looked good as a wide receiver in those last two games, man, when he finally started to get a lot of routes there. At some point, offense is stagnating. You don't know what's going to happen. So with Travis Hunter, to me, it's just like, at this price,

where can I get a guy that was actually going to win me weeks? There's not many guys that go into 150s that at any point can win you a week. Travis Hunter is one of them. So I think in best ball, it's like worth a gamble right now at that price. In redraft, it's like a no-brainer to put him on your bench and see what happens over the next three, four, five months. Yeah, I think it's a really strong take. It's sort of, you talk about all the range of outcomes.

Like if one of those receivers goes down with an injury, maybe Hunter they have to use. Maybe a cornerback develops. Maybe they draft one on day two and they're able to use him more on offense. There's just so many variables. And when you look at the price that they paid to take him at two overall, Yeah, I think it's absolutely worth the risk. One other player that was sort of beat up last year, and the marketplace, especially the dynasty marketplace,

was continually talking about how Isaiah likely is going to get this contract. I remember when Jake Ferguson signed right before the season in August, re-signed with Dallas, people are like Isaiah likely is going to be the next one to get a very similar contract in Baltimore. Isaiah likely gets banged up, and we don't see the contract extension. And in fact, Baltimore pays Mark Andrews, which seemed kind of weird at the time. But here we are.

Mark Andrews is now without Isaiah likely in Baltimore. And you're back in on him as an ADP value. He's cheap right now. Oh, not only is Isaiah likely gone, but Charlie Kohler is gone also. So I'm sure that they're going to add some tight ends this draft. I don't know, though, man. Like Mark Andrews could be back to a total full-time player. And by the way, it feels like he's been around forever.

he's only 30. He'll be 31 in September, Will Mark Andrews. So for tight ends, that is not even old. I mean, you're getting there, but it's not even that old at the tight end position. I have some concerns with Todd Monkin leaving Baltimore. I think that hurts the new kid. They have a 20, and I say kid with all due respect, 29 years old is going to be calling plays this year for Baltimore. I don't know a ton about him. So there gives me some pause there. But you mentioned the cost. I mean, it is like free on Mark Andrews who, when healthy and playing a full-time role has been one of the best fantasy tight ends, just really, really good producers. So I think at this price, like, yeah, I see the flags, but I'm definitely willing to take the gamble on Mark Andrews here in really all formats, I think. Yeah, and I love how you put the when healthy because sometimes we've seen these guys take a while to bounce back from the tightrope surgery.

We saw it with like Tony Pollard. So Mandruz, if we're giving him sort of the benefit of the doubt on the injury, hey, he's the last man standing here in Baltimore. Certainly he's had a lot of success with Lamar Jackson. So interesting player there. And for FFPC drafters, right now you're able to get Mark Andrews as the tight end 18. This is the cheapest we've really ever seen him since his rookie year. That's his average draft position on Fantasy Mojo right now is the 10-9 behind guys like

Joanne Johnson, Dallas Goddard, Travis Kelsey. So I think there's some, and Isaiah likely, there's some ranges where he really smashes that one. And maybe he's this year's version of Dallas Goddard, a guy who catches a ton of touchdowns. All right, let's talk about him. Bucky Irving last year was drafted as the RB9. Now you're getting him as like the RB18, RB19, going around the three-four turn. We had Zach Robinson sort of as the ultimate hype man saying that we can use them like Bijon Robinson, he can do everything Bejohn can do. And then Tampa Bay goes and signs Kenneth Gainwell,

who was top five last year in running back receptions and Sean Tucker's going to be back. Do you think Tampa Bay is sort of telling you what they think of Bucky Irving with these signings, or is it really just more of an anti-Bucky fade at this price? So I think, like, something was off last year with Bucky. Like, he got hurt, but the injury should not have sidelined him for as long as it did.

And there was some rumors. I heard from multiple people that there was stuff going on off the field mentally with Bucky. I'm not sure that the Bucks want to trust him for full workloads. So they go out and add one of the leagues better passing down backs, two minute backs, four minute backs, and Kenny Gainwell. I don't think that they signed him to that deal not to use him in that role. And then even last year, when Bucky was healthy, they used Sean Tucker at the goal line. Now, maybe that flips back.

Maybe Bucky's got his head on straight. Everything's good. And he gets the goal line work. But they brought back Sean Tucker to play that role, I think. And so if Kenny Gainwell is going to be in most of the passing situations and Sean Tucker is going to be at the goal line and I'm a little queasy about the offense in general, where does that leave you with Bucky? It's not that exciting.

And like there's all. all this lingering stuff with me on his off field condition also. So those are just like a lot of red flags for me on Bucky, where I'm probably just going to be a pass here at the three, four turn. Yeah, I think it's an interesting take and probably one that I kind of lean towards. It feels kind of like a dead zone back. And I think we're kind of gravitating towards what he did as a rookie and the sort of the volume that we saw for the first month of last season.

But it's a new offensive coordinator as well. So we've got that little variable. people are looking at it as like a net positive. It could also be a net negative. And Gainwell was awesome last year. People are totally brushing Gainwell aside. I've loved clicking the button on Gainwell in best ball drafts. I mean, he was fantastic.

He had like five out of six weeks finishing as an RB1 down the stretch. We were all starting him in the fantasy football playoffs. So the idea that he's going to fade away after his career season, I'm not buying into that one at all. And Tucker's just one of these kind of good at football guys that's been with the organization for a long time, and we know he's capable of finding the end zone. Maybe he absorbed some of those goal line runs. So a lot of things to not like about Bucky. Just curious, he's going alongside Kyron Williams, Javante Williams. Are you more into those two guys at cost? Are you leaning towards the wide receivers? Yeah, I mean, you know, in redraft, I've had this

kind of strategy where I go super running back heavy early. So like two running backs in the first three rounds, running back, running back starts. That's been really profitable in redraft. the last two years. I haven't really formulated a strategy yet for this year, but my gut is if those are the third and fourth round running backs, starting like running back, running back, and then getting into wide receiver, tight end quarterback through those mid rounds is interesting to me, because I'm not excited about either of those guys, that excited about either of those guys, either Javante or, or Kairn or Buck. The dead zone might be back. I mean, the last two years, people have been able to hit the dead zone heavy and not be punished for it. This year, it might

actually be back. We're going to talk about that all summer. You mentioned Garrett Wilson earlier as a guy that you liked less than Ladd-McConkie. It really seems like you don't like Garrett Wilson at cost. Devil's advocate will be, hey, Adam, this guy's going to have a 35% target share and he's had all these years, the 150 target. Don't you like targets, Adam? Like, what are you talking about? So Garrett Wilson here at the three-four turn, target chasers are going to click that button, but you're off of that. I mean, you know, that was the argument they gave me last year about Gary Wilson. I think I clicked Garrett Wilson zero times last year. I know he got hurt.

My question always with guys like this is like, do I ever get buried at this cost? Right. Like, yeah, what's his real sealing outcome when Aaron Glenn is his coach and Gino Smith is the quarterback and the offensive line situation and the offensive culture situation is what it is? Does Garrett Wilson ever bury me? at this cost of 36.9. I just don't think so. I think I'm way more likely to get buried by Lad or Luther Burden or Rishi Rice if he's on the field or Teddorio McMillan. I think those guys are way more likely to just go out there and bury me. So I get it on Garrett Wilson. If he stays healthy,

I'm sure he'll be fine on compiling volume. I just think it's going to be hard to go completely nuts when you play for the Jets. And it's not his fault. It's just it is what it is. Yeah, Jets have been one of these teams where they've had really talented skill position guys and Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall and terrible quarterback play, terrible offensive coordinators. Gino Smith behind center again, the ultimate bridge name. Two overall, they're going to miss Mendoza by a pick. Your thoughts on Breece Hall this year because we were really rooting for him to maybe end up in a Kansas City either last year by a trade at the deadline or this year as a free agent. I think a lot of fantasy managers were hopeful, beyond hopeful, that he'd get out of New York. He's back in New York.

And the cost is somewhere around 30 overall on both underdog and FFPC. Are you in on Brees? Are you also fading him along with Garrett Wilson? I mean, it's just hard. I feel the same way. I love Brees as a player. Like honestly, like one of my favorite, I think, underrated running backs in the NFL as a player. If you're not going to score a lot of touchdowns at the running back position, like how does he bury me at this cost? You know, is he going to score more than six or seven touchdowns this year? It seems really, really hard for me to see that unless Gino plays way better than he did last year. And by the way, I do think Gino will play better than he played last year, but not by a ton.

You know, so, yeah, I feel the same way about breezes I do with Garrett Wilson. I don't think he's going to bury me at this cost and I'll probably be significantly underweight. One other player that you listed as overvalued is Carnell Tate, who's the odds on favorite to be the first wide receiver off the board in this year's NFL draft. He's going at around 56 overall on Underdog. And for you, FFPC managers, going somewhere in that 65 through 68 range. So he's getting pushed up, but not to a point that we've seen some of these rookie wide receiver one selected guys like Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Neighbors, etc. He's going lower than last year with Tedderill and McMillan at this time.

Your thoughts on Tate and why are you fading him at this time? cost. Yeah, you're going to have to explain this one to me because I, you know, I'm getting out of my lane here. I am not a dynasty prospect, bro, whatsoever. But how does a guy who has never had more than 52 catches in his season? And I understand he had a lot of good players on his team, but never more than 52 catches in the season. And then in the biggest games this past year against the toughest competition against Texas, he has two catches. Indiana, Big Ten Championship, four for 45 and one. Against Miami in the playoff games they lost, 3.37. In the biggest games, there was no production. And so, like, and you want to take him, you know, you want to say, oh, he's, he's crazy

talent. He's a crazy good route runner. Normally, those guys go in like the 20s. How does Cardinal Tate end up in everyone's mock to the Cleveland Browns? And by the way, if he's going to go to the Browns, how exciting is that for fantasy? But anyway, how does he go to the Cleveland Browns in the top six with that kind of production level? So I don't know, man. It just scares me from a prospect perspective and then if he's going to go to Cleveland, how excited can we be about that either? Yeah, the Cleveland one's the interesting one because it would just be like a death sentence. You can make arguments that if he ended up in Tennessee, he could be established himself as the wide receiver one there. Like we could sort of get behind him at a table offense. And then I think if

he avoids Cleveland though, my question to you would be, let's say he avoids that landmine for Cleveland. Let's say he goes off the board as like Washington's pick at seven. Are you more open-minded to him with obviously you are but with jaden jaden daniels in Washington which has been another some of the washington beat reporters are sort of insinuating that they're really like tate they might take him there yeah it's interesting i mean clearly like he's a better player than the production has shown right because the NFL would not be like all over him as a top seven seven picks so i get it from that perspective i do think it's interesting that you mentioned all the guys like the rookie fever has gotten so hot, especially in bestball, that normally these guys go way higher.

So like I don't want to be like too firm on this because I don't want to be out on a guy who is going to go six or seven or four overall and is going into 50s because normally like you said, those guys have gone in the teens or even higher. But yeah, man, I'm just queasy about the whole thing right now. I'm just, right now I'm just going to pass for now. Yeah, we'll keep an eye on carnell tate in the landing spot i i think i like him a lot more than adam does we're we're going to try to break you down adam and turn you into a why tell me tell me why he did not why did he do nothing why did he do nothing in any if he's so good why did he do nothing in these huge games well i think the target competition is real i think jeremiah smith even though it's the the the 2027

class of quarterbacks where we might see like six quarterbacks in 2027 draft in the first round i think jeremiah smith still might be the the first pick in the nfl draft like a special special wide receiver. Tate every year has had to play with these guys. It was like Buka the year before. So the teammate competition, like, that's a real thing in Ohio State. But a lot of the tape is really positive. It's sort of like a George Pickens if he was a better separator and didn't have any of like the off field locker room type concerns early on. And I think one of the reasons he's also going higher is you know this. This is a draft that is a little more wide open. The best players in this draft class are like a safety, an offensive guard.

And only one quarterback going off the board. And Jeremiah Love is going to be a top five picks. You've got all these like off positions. So I don't think people really know what to do. But I think they do like Carnal Tate. And I think his draft capital reflected. So we'll continue talking about it this summer for sure. Okay.

When I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice. I want to help my kids. And I want to give back to the community. Ooh. Then it's the business. The vacation of a lifetime. I wonder if my out of office has a forever setting. An IG Private Wealth Advisor creates the clarity you need with plans that harmonize your business,

your family, and your dreams. Get financial advice that puts you at the center. Find your advisor at IGPrivatewealth.com. In communities across Canada, hourly Amazon employees earn an average of over $24.50 an hour. Employees also have the opportunity to grow their skills and their paycheck by enrolling in free skills training programs for in-demand fields like software development and information technology. Learn more at aboutamazon.ca.

After 19 years, they're back. Frankie Munis, Brian Cranston, and the rest of the family reunite in Malcolm in the middle, life's still unfair. After 10 years avoiding them how and lowest demand Malcolm be at their anniversary party, pulling him straight back into their chaos. Malcolm in the middle, life's still unfair. A special four-part event, streaming April 10th on Hulu on Disney Plus.

Let's talk about a little rapid fire. I'm going to just kind of say what the guy was last year in his current cost, and you tell me if you're interested or out. Sequin Barkley, last year, of course, coming off of his magical 2,000-yard season the year before, Philly wins the Super Bowl. Naturally, Sequin goes inside a round one. and the first half of round one,

we saw him go anywhere from like the 102 to the 106. Now he's kind of locked into the second round. Are you in on a Sequin bounceback season? I would lean more towards out at this cost. I think Jeff Stoutland leaving the Eagles matters a lot. Their offensive line has gotten older, more injured, not as good.

And to me, that was one of the biggest issues last season. Obviously, losing, I was getting rid of Kevin Petulow, I think helps a ton. So I would lean underweight here on Barclay. The biggest issue with Barclay is like they don't really use him in the past game. Jalen Hertz does not throw to running back a lot.

And then when they get to the one yard line, they're going to tush push. And so it's hard to find outs for Barclay when he's not breaking off long runs and scoring touchdowns on those. So the floor is lower than I think people realize on Barclay. Yeah. And I'm looking at Barclay like I want to be more in than you are, but it's sort of the opportunity cost of taking him at 20 overall. He's going ahead of Drake London. He's going, and this is FFPC, going ahead of Colston Loveland.

We talked about how Colston Loveland, especially in tight end premium, could be a smash pick. And then if I want to chase an old guy with volume, I'd probably take another year of Derek Henry over Sequin Barclay as well. I think it's a similar bet. But with Henry, we saw him really smashed down the stretch last year and some things to like, like you said, with Declan Doyle coming over to Baltimore. Let's continue this one. Kenneth Walker, who last year was one of the big. biggest bust sort of relative to cost at the running back position. He was going at the three four turn in FFPC drafts.

Obviously had very similar points per game to Zach Charbonnet. Now Kenneth Walker completely flips the script, was unbelievable in the NFL playoffs, ends up being the Super Bowl MVP, Seattle wins the Super Bowl, and then he goes and lands in what many considered to be the nuts landing spot for a running back in KC. He's up to running back 11.

So running back 14 last year, now running back 11 and climbing in FFPC and on Underdog, are you in on Kenneth Walker and fully embracing him in an Andy Reid offense? I think so. And because it's like I, it's almost ironic to me because the entire fantasy community was like Kenneth Walker's good. You should play Kenneth Walker more. Why is Kenneth Walker losing snaps to Zach Sharbonate? And to the point where people in the fantasy community,

your knee like, like stop talking about Kenneth Walker. He sucks. It's annoying. And see, Zach Charmetti is playing more than him. And then Zach Charmetti gets hurt. And everybody's like, oh, oh, yeah, they should have been playing. Do they even win the Super Bowl? If Jack Sarbanay doesn't get hurt? I don't know. Do they, they might not, you know? So they finally got everyone to see what Kenneth Walker can do. He's never had more than 228 carries in his season. I think he'll eclipse that. But most important to me is, yes, he's really. bad in past protection. It's really hard to use him, especially if you're trying to protect Mahomes in past protection. But Andy Reid has always been really good at scheming screens to his

running backs. Kenneth Walker in the screen game is awesome. 1.64 yards per route run last year for Kenneth Walker is elite at the running back position. And he was over 1.3 yards per round in each of the last two seasons before that. And that stuff is important at running back. The guys who like show up and fail at running back are often like really bad yards per route run, like below one. So I think Kenneth Walker's four ceiling combo is really, really strong here. And maybe they change how throw heavy they are in the red zone here. They've had such bad running back play. Like they're always among the league leaders in red zone throw rate.

Maybe Kenneth Walker gets, it changes their mind there. And they call more run plays inside the five yard line. Yeah. And it's really interesting because we haven't had a blue chip running back like this in an Andy Reed offense since like young Kareem Hunt. and you go back to some of the names associated with Andy Reid, the Shady McCoys, guys like that who had such immense success. So I think I'm in on it.

I do worry that when he keeps steaming up and up and up, it could end up being a little bit more of like a, do I think he's the league winner at cost? No. But I think it's like a structural bet where you talked about being able to embrace running back, running back, maybe start your draft out with a Jonathan Taylor, followed up with a Kenneth Walker,

and then you can hit wide receiver after and sort of avoid. those dead zone guys. So I think he makes sense where he's being priced. I just wonder if it's going to be, is this going to be like a league winner? If you're searching for the league winner in the second round, I don't know if it's him, but I think you make some really, really good points on that one. Talk about Malik Neighbors, where we don't really have clarity as to when Malik Neighbors will be fully back. He's still going off the board as the wide receiver 8, which you have to use around the 210 in these FFPC drafts, very similar.

priced on underdog, if not a little bit higher. Do you think the market is maybe a little too optimistic? Or are you like, this is the injury discount I've been searching for? Well, you know, this is all, do you think Malik neighbors will be healthy and at what point will he be back to 100%. The latest quote we have is from Joe Shane, but this was a month ago. And by the way, Malik neighbors coming off ACL and meniscus tears. Shane said the plan is hopefully for neighbors to be ready for training camp.

Again, don't hold me to it. Things change. I mean, I'm sure you guys all saw the video of Patrick Mahomes throwing this week, just 100 days removed from his ACL tear. The way that this injury stuff is gone, I went from leaning super pessimistic on guys like this, maybe three, four, five years ago to now I'm way more open and optimistic on it just because of the way that rehabs and modern medicine has changed things.

So I like neighbors. I want to bet on him. to be healthy. My big concern here, Theo, is I have a sticky note here on my desk. And when I'm drafting, I look at this sticky note. And what it says is, do not put a lot of money on true dolts. And by true dolts, I mean, Shane Waldron, Arthur Smith, Nathaniel Hackett. And yes, Matt Nagy also, who is now with the Giants. So that gives me some pause because I think Matt Nagy is just like a stone cold dolt in the realm with those other guys. But, yeah, I mean, if neighbors is healthy, it's really hard to say you're not getting a discount here.

Yeah, and on the flip side, you mentioned the fear of Matt Nagy, which I think a lot of us have, but you've got this really mobile quarterback who was really successful on a fantasy point per game mark last year. Jackson Dart, who you talk to some people and they're like, I have to take Jackson Dart, especially in best ball. This is a guy who could put up all these spike weeks. It's a no-brainer. And it's a type of like low-end QB-1 that could smash for. fantasy last year we saw a year two quarterback end up being sort of the league winner at the position are you also sort of trepidacious and cautious about embracing jackson dart for your

builds or is that a different guy it sucks yeah no i mean it sucks as i love jackson dart i think he has like not the way josh island looks or plays necessarily but the way he accounts for fantasy scoring points in other words when the giant score points jackson dart is so likely to be so heavily involved in all of it, whether running for touchdowns or running or throwing bombs and stuff like that, just like Josh Allen did when he was and does really. So yeah, I like Jackson DART. I don't even see his, what's his cost now on Underdog, God. I mean, yeah, Jackson Darts down there. I know for FFPC, it was similar for, he's actually steamed up more in FFPCs like the QB6. But again, there's not a whole lot of, a whole lot of sample size here. Underdog, he's probably

QB 11, QB 10 range. Yeah, yeah, exactly. We have him as QB 10 in our rankings and underdog ADP is QB11. So, yeah, I like being a little bit high on Dart right now. I don't want to go nuts. I don't want to go nuts though. Yeah, it's some like, he's surrounded by Herbert and Lawrence where we're like, okay, Liam Cohen, Mike McDaniel, or you could take Jackson Dart who's like, you know,

can Matt that and Aggie get it together. So I completely get it. But the scrambling ability makes him very, very appealing click, especially in best ball. Speaking of mobile quarterbacks, what's really interesting is, you know, in the FFPC streets, last year we saw QB2 and QB3 steamed up considerably. Like last year, it was like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were neck and neck in ADP. You had to use like a mid third round pick in redraft on Lamar Jackson. And then Jaden Daniels coming off of his magical rookie season was the QB3. You had to use like a three-four turn. It was actually extremely. It was actually

extremely common. Jaden Daniels is one of the most common FFPC picks last year. The thing people were doing in like main events was I'm going to take Jaden Daniels at the the 312 and then I'll take Terry McLaren at the 4-1. I'll get that correlation and it's sort of buried a lot of teams.

Now the quarterback marketplace is weird. On both underdog and FFPC, Josh Allen is in his own tier. You're using like a two-three turn pick, underdog, a second round pick on Josh Allen. And you're getting access to QB2 and QB3 a lot later. It's still Lamar Jackson and Jaden Daniels, but like

in FFPC, it's 30 spots later. Lamar Jackson going 30 spots cheaper. Jaden Daniel is going about 35 spots cheaper. So when I ask you, you in on the QB2 and QB3, it's a little different than last year. It's a much cheaper bet, but are you embracing this sort of range of quarterback? Take it for best ball, take it for redraft, take it any way you want. Well, I thought one reason that quarterbacks were getting pushed up last year is because round three was so weak. And if you guys remember drafting last year, it was like, God, who do I take in round three? Who do I take in round three? And a lot of times it was just, and I thought this was good too. Take Josh, take Lamar, take Jadon, you know, like take one of these really, really safe quarterback bets. It turns out that when your

rushing ability is sapped in Lamar's case by injury, in Jaden's case, just by getting hurt for the year or not being able to play through it, yeah, it's going to look really, really bad. I still. still want to bet on mobile quarterbacks as like these really safe floor ceiling combos, especially in leagues where I think I'm better than my opponents. In other words, like a 12-team home league, I'm so much more likely to take Lamar or Jaden because I can just, I'll know that I'm going to win there at quarterback, and I can beat them at running back and wide receiver and tight end in a million other ways, draft, waiver, wire, trade, whatever.

in more competitive stuff like FFPC or best ball. I'm going to think more about it structurally. I don't have a strong take yet. My initial gut, though, is that it's just too much of an overreaction to injuries last year. Like Lamar Jackson last year only ran the ball. I believe it was five times per game. Yeah, 5.25 carries per game last season for Lamar.

Clearly, clearly, clearly, clearly he was playing through injury. He peaked at 11.7 compared to. carries per game when he won MVP. I think this year getting him back into that like eight or nine carries per game, that's where he needs to be for the Ravens and for fantasy. And then Jaden, Jaden wasn't even a leg injury, you know, it was an elbow injury that he ended up getting shut down with. So I think Jaden will be fine.

So my initial gut is that those guys are going too far away from Josh. Like the gap should be closer. Yeah, I think I might be even more in on Daniels. With Lamar Jackson, it's sort of like getting a little older, was banged up last year. The Russian production went down. But with Jaden Daniels, I feel like he's just such a smash pick. And you get a little bit of delta between the two. It's maybe 10 picks cheaper on some underdog drafts.

So I've been drafting a ton of Jaden Daniels, and I think it'll continue in the redraft season. This was so much fun today, breaking it down with you. I also had a good time on your guy's channel the other day. Check that out on Establish the Run YouTube if you're watching this on Fantasy Points. YouTube. Pat Corain and I joined Evan Silva, John Daigle, and Adam, broke down a dynasty rookie draft. That was fun. I know, Adam, you're

big dynasty guy now. You're getting that reputation out there. But let everybody know, once again what you have going on heading up into this offseason. Yeah, you guys can check us out. Totally free on YouTube and obviously totally free on Twitter at Adam Levittan,

all one word. But yeah, check us out on the YouTube machine if you like watching YouTube fantasy stuff. We try to get as virgin as possible as we can for the hardcore guys, trying to make as much money as they can. Yeah, and check out the previous Fantasy Football Daily's.

I had Matt Harmon on, had JJ Zacharisen on. Sigmund Bloom join me on Dynasty Life and John Dagle of Establish the Run will join me on Dynasty Life. If you're watching this on the YouTube channel, make sure you're checking out Fantasy Points Dynasty YouTube channel for all of my Dynasty Life episodes. We'll

see you soon. Getting ready for a game means being ready for anything. like packing a spare stick. I like to be prepared. That's why I remember, 988, Canada's suicide crisis helpline. It's good to know, just in case. Anyone can call or text for free confidential support from a train responder. Anytime.

988 suicide crisis helpline is funded by the government in Canada.