Fantasy Football Daily - AFC Best Case Scenarios + Achilles Heels for Playoff Contenders | NFL First Read

Episode Date: December 10, 2024

Welcome to First Read, your go-to podcast for the latest in NFL analysis and insights. Join hosts Brett Whitefield and Joe Marino as they break down "AFC Best Case Scenarios + Achilles Heels for Playoff Contenders." Whether you're a fantasy football enthusiast, a die-hard fan, or just looking to stay informed on all things NFL, "First Read" has you covered. Tune in for expert opinions, detailed breakdowns, and engaging discussions every week. Don't miss out on the ultimate NFL podcast experience! Where to find us: http://twitter.com/BGWhitefield http://twitter.com/TheJoeMarino Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Check out The Waiver Wire - https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/the-waiver-wire-week-5#/ FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

First read. We are your first read, the film and analytics podcast featuring Joe Marino of Lockdown and myself, Brett Whitefield, the C.O of Fantasy Points. This podcast is powered by the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Let's get after it. Joe Marino, it is Lions v. Bills week. It starts right now, my friend. Yeah, you know, those lions, they're just resting away while the bills are taking hard fought ls. Oh, man. Get ready to go to Ford Field. The bill's second home.

People forget that. The bills sometimes play home games at Ford Field. People do forget that. Yeah, so I don't know who's getting the home locker room versus the away locker room. But obviously with the way those Vikings are playing there, Brett Whitefield, an important game for Detroit. Yeah, it is an important game. It's an important game for both teams, I would say, Joe.

I know. You know, though, actually, I want to ask you this. How close were we on the San Francisco in Buffalo game? How close was that? to being in Detroit, do you think? Not close. Not close, okay. Yeah, not close.

You need like six feet of snow. I think we only got to be that bad. Yeah, yeah, it's got to be pretty significant. For those that are completely lost, the bills have played two home games in Detroit in the last five years because of snow. I think five years, right? Yeah, but like ridiculous amounts of snow that makes it impossible for people to safely travel when there's travel bans in the community and you can't displace your emergency resource

system for people to go to a football game. So it's not because it's cold or because anyone's soft in Buffalo. It's because there's six feet of snow in a very short period of time and it's unsafe for anyone to go anywhere. Yeah, the videos are hilarious. The team literally has to get staff members to go dig players out of their houses. Yeah, neighbors and people on snowmobiles will literally go and dig out cars so that the bills players can get to the stadium. It happens regularly, multiple times per year. So imagine being like a southern boy, getting drafted by the bills and then deal all the time dude it happens to them all the time all the time and this year i mean this year there's some players it's like giovon solomon i think it's from like

alabama it's like oh cyrus torrance last year at louisiana florida boy it's like here you go baby here you go so yeah that dome team in detroit you know i don't know they're lucky that it's in it's in it's in detroit i don't play it's in detroit to be played outside to be honest so i don't i don't love the Detroit plays in a dome. However, it's pretty exciting when they have a really good offense that performs well in the dome. I bet. I bet. With it being Bill's Lions Week, we will do a deep dive preview, maybe some smack talk on Thursday show. But today we're maybe you will. I don't know, man. I'm like it. I got my tail between my legs worried about the, the Lions being a supercharged version of the Rams. So, you know, we'll talk objectively about the game. Yeah, yeah. I'm concerned, Brett. We'll save that for Thursday. So, you know, I'll give you, I'll give you some more time. to lick your wounds and relax a little bit.

But right now, we're going to do some champs and chumps. Yep. Yeah. I don't know. Where you want to start? Champ or chump? I feel like you always have a lean on that. Yeah, it's always completely biased in how I picked mine.

And if they go hand in hand or if there's something I've got to get off my chest, mine do go hand in hand this week, Joe. So, I don't know. Do you want to go? Why don't you go? I feel like you want to do yours in concert. I feel like that's what in your heart. That's what you want.

It is. It is. Why don't you go ahead? I feel like you got to go here. Let's do your thing here. But champ's going to be Dan Campbell. First time of the year I've made him champ. He's probably deserved it multiple times.

But four for five on fourth down. He's, Joe, there's a legitimate discussion to be had. Is he the money ball of football? Is he changing the game forever? You're seeing it across the league. Fourth down rates have jumped through the roof.

People are going forward on punts. We see at least two fake punts every single week in the NFL. But man, in a game where you're down, Joe, they were down 16 defensive players against the Green Bay Packers. 16. Your top nine defensive linemen that you started the season with. And you go into that game, realizing your offense is going to have to carry some of the load. And he did it. And he dialed up.

I mean, they got into some good fourth down situations, fourth and ones and fourth and two is nothing too crazy. Four for five, two touchdowns. The game winning first down that allowed them to bleed the clock and kick the field goal, which by the way, I know people were mad at him about the 30 yard line. He went for it on his own 30 yard line. Do you remember? Yeah, I do. People were mad about him doing that and they weren't mad about the last one. Analytically speaking, if you're looking at any model that, you know, win percentage gained by going for it.

The one from his own 30 was actually a strong suggestion to go. The one at the end of the game was not. That actually went against the analytics there. And I hate the term the analytics because it's a catch-all. That doesn't mean anything. But yeah, I just got to champ him because I think he's unwilling to change the identity of the team. And from the moment he stepped into Detroit, that was going to be their identity. Default, aggressive.

we're going to dictate terms and we're going to go get after it. We're going to give ourselves more opportunities to win because we're going to go. And they were doing this when the team stunk too, Joe. Like, and they were going, you know, they'd have games where they were two for six on fourth down. And now that they're good, they go four for five on fourth down and they win the game because of it. So he's my, he's my champ. Do you have any thoughts on that? Well, I've certainly enjoyed it.

I've enjoyed watching Dan Campbell and the impact that he's had on the National Football League and decision making. And I love the idea of. ending games on your terms and not leaving it up to, well, if we kick this field goal and these 85 more things work out, and then we get the ballback and this happens and we win the game. Well, what if you just got three yards? You know, what if you just got three yards on one play when your average per play is seven yards or six and a half yards? Like, I think there's enough data that exists and enough intelligence that exists to tell you, well, when we run a play under these circumstances, typically we get this result. And if this result is good enough for the line to gain or whatever, okay, do it. And don't leave it up to successfully executing 15 more things to win a football game.

So I like it at its core. And I like that you came in and said, he did this before the lions were the lions, as we know them today. And I think that's an identity piece, a foundational piece of who they are. And it flies in the face of anybody that might say, well, if you have Ben Johnson and Jared off and Amonross St. Brown and those running backs and the tight end, it's like in that offensive line, then you can do it. Like, no, they didn't always have those things in the form that they are today. And the team rallies, man. I think it's more than just numbers and probability. It's the belief that you have in your team and how they respond to it. That leads to a lot of good, right,

between the coaching staff and the players and connecting the messaging and buying in and doing it for each other. Like, when somebody believes in you to go do something that's risky or challenging and you do that, that relationship becomes even stronger. So I think it's, it's awesome. I mean, obviously there's going to be a couple of times where it's not going to work out the way that you want, but I think the greater story is pretty obvious as to what it, what it's suggested it can do for your football team. Yeah, Jared Gossman talking a lot about what you just mentioned the belief in the players to he's trusting them to go win the game like it means a lot to the players and they love it they don't even Jared said that when they get to any fourth down now the

offense doesn't automatically just leave the field they actually all stand there and they're like they want to go for every time doesn't matter what the circumstances is or where they're at on the field so I think that's pretty cool I don't want to belabor this too much but I did want to ask you from a viewing perspective I feel like Dan has changed the NFL too because gosh on, you know, you get a third and three play. It's a, it's a, you know, a one or two yard pass or an incompletion. They hold up the fourth down sign and, oh, you feel good. Oh, yeah, defense got to stop.

Well, against the lines, that's not actually true. You have to play four downs. And I think it, I think the resistance to Dan has been fans simply being salty that, well, you just stole, you just stole possession from me. Like this is no, yeah, yeah. And you stole a possession from me. This is, wow. What a loser mentality.

sorry, if you think that when you're watching a game, like every team has the opportunity for four plays to get the line to game. And if your coach chooses to do it or doesn't do it, that's not stealing anything. That's like, hey, that's the rules of football. Stop them or you don't like it to stop them. They're giving you the opportunity to take possession of the ball right there. Stop them.

And yeah, it does. I know when I watch games and the opposing coach has an appetite for it, I do think to myself and recalibular. my expectations for what's going to happen knowing that, hey, they got two more plays here. It's not just third down stop them. They're going to punt or they're going to kick a field goal. If you haven't recalibrated your approach to watching football, then that's on you. That's a personal problem because it's blatant.

It's obvious. And nobody stole anything. Your team has a chance to stop them. It's professional football. Amen. And then my chump, Joe, is Teddy Bruske for, everything we just talked about. He came out. It was the weird part about his little rant. And if you haven't seen it, I encourage you guys to go watch it. It was just angry. He was like he was legitimately

mad that Dan Campbell's having the success on fourth downs. He, he called it a loser's mentality. He's like, I understand when you, when you stunk and you were doing this because you had to make up fill in the gap. But now that you're a front runner, you need to act like a front runner. And I'm like, bro, you're a dinosaur and you played for the greatest quarterback in the, greatest coach, well, arguably the greatest coach of all time. Like, sit this one out, my guy. Like, boy. Talk about being a front runner. Come on. Boy, that's tough, man. How do you argue with the results? Like, what is he talking about? You got to, because it doesn't look the way you wanted to,

Teddy? Exactly. Boy, that's a crap comment, huh? Yeah, absolutely. It fired me up. That's a crap comment. Boy, that's a crap comment. All right, good, good, uh, good slate there, Brett Whitefield. My champ of the week, former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford. All right. Are you kidding me, dude? You see this guy play against the bills? What a baller, man.

Reminded you exactly why he's a future Hall of Fame quarterback. 42 to 44 win. He goes out there. He's dealing, man. 23 of 30, 320 yards, two touchdowns. 15 passing first downs. They're 12 of 15 on possession downs. They converted 11 third downs and a fourth down.

They had five touchdown drives of at least 70 plays in 70 yards. His hero throw percentage, you know what that is, Brett Whitefield. It's an extraordinary throw that maximizes the result of the play. You can look at this in the fantasy points data suite on a weekly basis or sort of the data, however you want. His hero throw percentage was 13.3%. That's the highest by far of any quarterback in week 14. His EPA, seventh highest of any quarterback in a game since 2000.

The dude was dealing against a good bill's defense that dares you to make hard throws to convert. And Matthew Stafford said, sure, no problem. I'll hit sail routes 20 yards down the field over and over. I'll dot the eye with tight man coverage in the red zone and on third downs. This dude was dealing. It was the, I've seen a lot of good quarterback. not play well against the bill's defense this was

a performance where it's just like I'm tipping my hat you were on one and the bills had no answers they played man they played zone they blitzed it didn't matter Stafford was dealing Stafford's a freaking baller

that game was a ton of fun to watch but was it well yeah because I appreciate football. I mean, I wanted the bills to win. I wanted them to be hot coming into Detroit. But I was DMing you during the game and you were, I was like, man, because Josh started to make a comeback. And I was like, he's got to get all these plays out of the system for, you know, next week. And you were like, dude, this defense has to purge. But I'm like, I don't know, man.

I think Stafford just kind of, the ball location on some of these throws was insane. I mean, there was tight coverage all over the place, early in the game at least. and then I think it started to wear down to where he was fine. Well, they started their run blitz, right? So they had no underneath coverage. So they're trying to stay leveraged over top with, you know, three, three shell, four shell. And there's no underneath coverage because they're either getting sucked up into the run fit on play action or their run blitzing and getting caught, man. It was.

McVey ran circles around Babbage. There's no doubt about it. Stafford was doing some off platform stuff too that you don't normally see where he's out of the pocket kind of creating. Dude, everything was working for him. It was a treat. Probably his best game, I think probably his best game since their Super Bowl run for sure. That was the best.

If you like EPA, it's literally the seventh best performance since 2020. Or 2000, excuse me, not 2020, 2000. You know who has the top three EPA games with at least 30 passing attempts? Oh,

since 2000? It's not. No. Who? It's Drew Brees. He has the top three. Oh, wow.

Okay. Aaron Rogers, four, Tom Brady, five, Brett Far six, Matthew Stafford, number seven. Wow. Yeah, pretty crazy. That is crazy.

So that's my champ of the week. Matthew Stafford, salute you, go win the NFC West, please. Know about those Seahawks, man, what the heck's going on? We'll talk about them on Thursday. My chump of the week, Kirk Cousins. Kirk, was he lost four in a row? They lost four in a row? Yeah. You know why they've lost four in a row? Because he's been terrible. entering the game. Revenge game in Minnesota.

Entering the game, he was the first player with 100 plus passing attempts, zero passing touchdowns, and at least six interceptions, and one pick six over a three game span since 2005. What do he do against the Falcons, or what he do with the Falcons against the Vikings through two more picks. His last four games, zero touchdowns, eight interceptions, 56 pass a rating in the fourth quarter of this season with two touchdowns six interceptions. Boy, he looks cooked. And you can watch interceptions and you could say, ah, you know, bad luck there. Ball got tipped or got deflected or pressure was there. Like,

no, Kirk Cousins is just throwing lollipops into coverage and they're getting picked off. And the Falcons have been a kind of a difficult team to deal with this year in terms of projecting them and understanding who they are. And as soon as I wanted to buy in when they got to six and three, they promptly lose four in a row. And they're just, he's

turning the ball over and not executing. And I don't know, I'm, I'm interested in what type of boost Pennix can give this team. They're going to lose this division, dude. Yeah. They won both the games against Tampa Bay. And they're going to

lose this division. And it's going to be because Kirk Cousins has been terrible. You think they should go to Pennix right now? Yeah. Raiders, Giants, commanders, Panthers, the remaining schedule. They should win three of those. They should win four. But they're the Falcons. So I don't think they should do anything. I'm not expecting them to be consistent. Do you think they should win out? Yeah. I keep forgetting the commanders are a decent team. I really do. I honestly got, I keep forgetting that. Panthers aren't able to pushover anymore either. No, and I think the Panthers are, the way that the Panthers are playing is,

has got to be a bit of a dream, right? Dude, yeah, right, losing, but losing close. Losing close. Bryce Young continuing to show that he's got a pulse. You're like getting worse talent-wise throughout the season with injuries, but then like you're still playing tough around a young coaching staff. It's a perfect type situation right now for them. Obviously, Xavier Leggett catch a football.

Yeah. Oh, my gosh. Tell me about it. You have three consecutive one possession losses there. Tight games. Against good teams too, Kansas City and Cillian. Carolina, you mean, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, Carolina, sorry.

So I'm disappointed by the Falcons, man, because I bought it. Falcons are the Cardinals. Two teams of pissing me off this year, man. Oh, dude. Yeah, they're both on my list. It was the Seahawks for a while, and then they've kind of snapped out of it a little bit. Won some games. All they needed to do was give the ball to Zach Sharbon A 35 times.

and it's it's one of these things where i think when sometimes when we bury a team or whatever we say on the show the opposite starts to happen we i think we buried the sea hawks after that rams game going to their by week pretty sure if you didn't i for sure did at five and four or four and five sorry they looked horrible they had stunk joint multiple times didn't show up to several games and then they win four in a row now we're out of the buy yeah against yeah teams right 49ers are dead the Cardinals are the Cardinals and the Jets, but it's still, it's still impressive. The win four games in a row and the NFL is impressive, period.

Well, now they get to play the Packers and Vikings are next two. Close with the Rams. That could be for the division. The Rams got a very manageable schedule the rest of the way. The NFC West is fascinating, but we will talk more about the NFC on Thursday. We're talking AFC, the rest of the way we're looking at the playoff field, a couple of potential in the hunt teams. And we're going to tell you what the Achilles heel

is and what the best case scenario is for the top teams and the AFC, folks, be sure to stick with us. All right, Brett Whitefield, four games left to play for every team in the National Football League. It's down to the nitty gritty. We're going to figure out who the top seeds are, who's getting to buy, who's getting the home playoff games, who the wildcard field is, and who's not playing anymore after week 18. We're going to get to nine teams here today, Chiefs, Bill, Steelers, Texans, Ravens, Chargers, Broncos, Colts, Dolphins. those are the teams that will make up your playoff field. I know that the Bengals are mathematically alive,

but come on, it would really need to be, I mean, they'd have to win out, and they need a bunch of teams to basically lose out to make it. All right. So they're mathematically alive, but it's not really going to happen. Let's start with the Kansas City Chiefs. And I think it's very easy for us to say what the ceiling of the chiefs is. It's to win the Super Bowl.

They've won three of the last five. They've been to the AFC championship game every single year since 2018. We know what the ceiling of this team is. I don't think that's where the interesting conversation is. I think the interesting conversation with Kansas City is what the Achilles heels are. And I don't know that you can just settle in on one thing with Kansas City. I think we've got corner problems. I think they have pass rush problems.

I think they have a left tackle problem. Now, that's not, those aren't typical flaws of a Super Bowl winning team. But they're still Kansas City. What does that even mean anymore? It means that they've won three of the last five Super Bowls, have Patrick Mahomes know how to win football games even if it's ugly. Like the resumes off the charts for being able to do that. They know how to just have those bo-a-con-trick their wins.

So let's talk about this then. So those Kansas City teams, especially the last two iterations of them, did they have a good pass rush? Did they have good cornerback play? Did they get decent left tackle play from Donovan Smith? whoever before him, did they have an explosive offense? For the most part, all those things were true. Now all those things are not true.

I don't know. I'm starting to get cautious saying, we'll lose to the Kansas City Chiefs. And I get the hesitation. They've been dominant. They're staring down the barrel of a three-peat. I'm just at the point where you can say that if a team still has all those components. They don't have all those components anymore.

Cornerback room stinks. Stephen Nelson's not helping that that much. the pass rush stinks. The left tackle situation stinks. None of that stuff was true with the previous Kansas City Chiefs teams. And so I can't, I can't sit here and say, well, it's the Kansas City Chiefs. I would say that left tackle was rough for them last year with Morris trying to kind of struggle through it as a rookie. But yeah, cornerback wasn't an issue that was the strength of their team.

Yeah, pass rush has been better in years past. I'd agree with that. But isn't there's something about the homes with the ball. in his hands, man, and 15 on the other sideline. It doesn't feel like they're out of it. I'm not as intimidated to go to air ahead in the playoffs. But I mean, this is the team with the best record in football. Tide.

Who has a better loss? Alliance. Really? You think that losing to the bills is? No, I just had to say that. I was like, I feel like you want to bury the Chiefs. I don't want to I'm not saying they're buried I'm just I every time I hear anyone talking about the chiefs it's well they're the chiefs they're the chiefs they're the chiefs but like I'm just

making the argument I don't think they are the chiefs this is a new team that we we're not used to whatever we're seeing it's not the same thing and they went three and they went three and five in an eight game stretch last year and had the 15th scoring offense yeah and I felt like this could be completely anecdotal and just my brain playing tricks on me but I felt like they just didn't care that much. They were they were struggling through it but like they all the the core tenants that still made them who they were were still true and now they didn't care that much to an 11 and 6 3 seed and now they do care and they're 12 and 1 and going to be the one I well dude they're having historical one possession luck right now historical are they the 2022 Vikings

is that what you're saying yeah I think they're they're very similar to that they're sweating their ass off in every single game. Every single game. Yet when that clock hits four zeros, KC's got more points than the other team every freaking time. Yeah. So we recognize that they're the one seed. We recognize their success.

We recognize that they have, I would say, three pretty considerable fatal flaws. Let's move on to the current number two seed, the Buffalo Bills at 10 and 3. the best case scenario for the bills, I think is the same as Kansas City to go win the Super Bowl. I think that's the rule.

I think that's most likely. I don't know that the one seat is out of the mix. I mean, Kansas City goes Browns, Texan, Steelers, Broncos. They'd have to lose two of the bills that have to win out. I think it's probably unlikely. But it's probably two-seed and win the Super Bowl. Yeah. Two-seed win the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl. That's their, that's their ceiling for sure. Achilles heel for the Bills, I think, is a mediocre defensive line. And I think it's been the problem for the bills in each of their last four playoffs exits. The Bills have won at least one playoff game, each of the last four seasons. Only the Chiefs have done that. But they got bounced by the Chiefs three times and they got bounced by the Bengals once. And I thought every single time, the Bills didn't get enough impact from their defensive line. And I'm not. sure that they're positioned for that to be any different this year.

I think Greg Rousseau is a good player, but I think he's Robin. He's not Batman. And Oliver is just M.I.A. this year. Von Miller's better, but he's still a situational DPR. I just don't think they have enough dudes up front that's going to make the game-changing plays when they most need it. And I think that started to show up a little bit down the stretch here. Obviously, they won seven in a row before this Rams loss. But I just don't know that. if they have the difference makers on that defensive line. Or I think that could be the reason why they don't get it done, because it's been the reason why they don't get it done on top of injuries.

And we'll go ahead and toss injuries aside for every team. We know that that's super consequential. Yeah. But for the bills specifically, when you look at the last four years, they've had some massive defensive injuries late in the season that kept guys out of postseason losses. But to me, I go right to this defensive line as if there's something that's going to give me some cause cause for the bill's not reaching their goals this year it's just i don't know that they're

going to get enough impact from those those guys up front i wrote down d line as well it's hard the bill's team's very complete in a lot of ways it's hard to i might not be as nervous about it as you what is up with that all over though that's a good i did want to ask you that what is up with him because it seems like he should be a difference maker but i struggle with it man um i don't know that there's anything physically wrong with him obviously last year he was terrific and a half sacks, 72 pressures, like 16 tackles for loss. He has like 23 pressures, one sack, and like two tackles for loss this year. The impact is just not there. I thought last year, him and Dayquan Jones played off each other extremely well.

And I thought they were a little bit more aggressive with their fronts to twist and run games. And I think maybe this year they're a little bit less, they're a little bit, they have less of an appetite to do that, which I think has taken away from some of Ed's production. But he's He's just not making, he's not that, he's not wreaking enough havoc, right? It's, it's just not been good enough. And so I would agree with you that I could potentially be overstating it. And I'm also a big defensive line guy. I care about it a lot.

And I mean, I watch these other games and I'm super jealous of watching. Unbelievable defensive linemen consistently make plays behind the line of scrimmage. And I just don't feel like the pills get that enough. Obviously get a ton of big plays. I mean, take away the ball like crazy. They do get a lot of negative plays. it's just the guys that are going to go up there and win one-on-one battles and dictate protection schemes and it's long and late,

you know who's going to heat them up. I don't think that teams are going up against the bills and having a whole lot of concern with that. They're going to run their protections schemes and trust their guys to win one-on-one. So I don't know, maybe it's not that big of an issue, but I feel some type of way about the lack of impact that this defensive line is getting coupled with

it being the leading reason why I think the bills have got bounced four years any row in the playoffs or I guess really five years in a row but four four years in a row where they won at least the wild card round or the divisional round game it definitely feels like their weak link no doubt about that so I guess we'll we'll see if it's an actual Achilles heel or not but it definitely feels like the weak link of the team and good good test against detroit good offensive line I think you're going to have you're going to if you're not going to make plays with your defensive line against Detroit like okay just you're going to eat it for 60 minutes so we'll find out what happens on Sunday and that

game. We'll talk about that a lot more on Thursday, obviously. Let's get to the number three seed, the Pittsburgh Steelers who are 10 and 3. The bills, what's interesting here is that the bills are the two seed over the Steelers at number three, and the reason is strength of victory. And the problem with strength of victory is that bills obviously have the Lions this week, but then they finish with two against the Patriots, the one against the Jets. Strength of victory is going down for the bills. And the Steelers got an absolute murderer's row to close out the year. They go at Philly, at Baltimore, host Kansas City, host Cincinnati. So there's a pretty good chance the bills will have an outright better record.

But if it comes down to strength of victory, obviously that's going to go down for the bills. What's your, I went first, I think, on both of the previous two teams. What's your best case scenario for Pittsburgh this year? Best case is a number two seed and a couple, a playoff winner two, I think. I think that'd be a really nice season for them. I don't think they're Super Bowl contenders. It's hard to say that when their defense is as good as it is and they can erase, you know, certain offenses.

Like in a playoff game, well, actually, we'll see this game in a couple weeks. Chiefs, Steelers. Like, you kind of feel good about the Steelers against them right now, right? Yeah, I not. So just get out of your head what's done. Just for the sake of the conversation. Obviously, we can always realize. on, well, it's Mahomes or well, it's the Chiefs.

But just for the sake of the two teams you see right now, I feel, I feel good about the Steelers versus the Chiefs in the way they're playing ball lately compared to the Chiefs. I do too. I do too. But that leads into one of my biggest concerns with Pittsburgh, which is the red zone offense has been terrible. I was going to say offensive juice, especially in the red zone is what I wrote.

Yeah. So in games that are going to come down to when you have the ball and you, you get into the red zone touchdowns, not, touchdowns not field goals. And when you're on defense, field goals, not touchdowns. I get nervous about their ability to execute with enough consistency where they may have, they might have six scoring drives in a game, but four of them are field goals. And you're just leaving a lot of points out there. And I don't know that Mike Tomlin is going to coach above that, if that makes sense in terms of being aggressive to get his team the maximum amount of points, right? I still think he's not Dan Campbell.

So I worry about those ingredients when you're going to have to, I mean, what happens if, I think it's more than likely. What if there's a world where the bills and Steelers play in round two, which I think is pretty likely as a two and the three, right? Yeah. And you don't love that, obviously, for the Steelers. You think the Steelers are going to go out there and outscore, Josh? No.

You think he's going to go do what Stafford just did? No. It might have to do against Baltimore. And obviously there's familiarity there. And this is precisely why I said a playoff win or two. I think if they don't run into the bills, round two, I think they have a shot to win two playoff games. If they do run into the bills,

and that season's probably over. But ergo, I think number two seed is unlikely because of their schedule. So they're looking at a three seed with a playoff winner two, I think, is their ceiling. And I guess the good news for Pittsburgh is what team that you're going to potentially face in the AFC playoffs, do you get real nervous about having to really dial up the scoreboard? And I think their win against Cincinnati a few weeks ago is probably, if there's Steelers fans listening right now and they're like, we don't like what you're saying.

Remember the Cincinnati game. I hear you on that. Cincinnati's defense is deplorable. And guess what? They're not going to be in the playoffs. So that's not going to be there for you. Is there a team in this field outside of Buffalo where you're like, I don't know.

I don't think they could score with them. Probably good news for Pittsburgh, right? Yeah, great news for Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh. I do wonder if I'd love to see like the way the dolphins are playing ball right now, like what that game would look like because we know the dolphins can score points, although they've turned kind of, they've morphed into a little bit more of a defensive team here. Could you, but I don't, I think that Steelers would be a great matchup defensively from Miami. Yes. Yeah. So.

I'm that's at the ball for sure. Yeah. I worry, I worry Miami can score, but can they score on Pittsburgh and can they, they're not going into Pittsburgh and scoring. We know that. That's true. Not in January. So to your point, the bills are really the only team here that's super scary for the Steelers. I think they have to avoid Buffalo. I think it's the number one thing. The ceiling's a little bit higher.

So if you're, if you're Pittsburgh, what you really want to do is be the four seed. You don't want to be the three. Yeah. Wait, does the NFL not reseed? No. Oh, wow. No. Lowest advancing seed plays the one.

Wow. So if you're the three, you're probably going above. in round two. But then in order to be the four, I mean, Texas pretty much got that thing locked in, baby. Or the Colts will get to it, but it could be the Colts. Yeah, true. So there, I mean, it's probably going to be Casey Buffalo, Pittsburgh. And if the bills and Steelers win, division around in Buffalo. Yeah. I think that's not what Pittsburgh needs. No, it's not. Cute season, though. Right. Isn't it weird like, okay, they're going to be the three seed prop. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe. win a playoff game probably will win a playoff game i think if they avoid baltimore in the first

round no i mean they could beat the chargers or whatever broncos and then we're going to do are we bringing back russ what what's the plan here i mean we'll have resources to build but what a what a curious choice i mean arthur smith has buzz no stop i can't do another artie farty at the helm like to me it's just like just ride the wave with russ i guess but yeah that that's going to be we're going to have two playoff teams and potentially in Pittsburgh and Minnesota that may not have their quarterback back next year that are going to be like division you know well I know that maybe not division winner for Minnesota but like that type of team because of the record they're just in the way of the

lions but it's giving me some weird weird turnover with potentially playoff teams and quarterbacks it sounds like Minnesota's all but announced that so well yeah I mean it took McCarthy and I think obviously that ceiling's really good and and daniel bringing daniel in right isn't that that's the right for for daniel jones the more you think about it either there or detroit i would say but detroit doesn't have a need for a guy and so yeah that's going to be interesting all right so that's the top three teams in this conference next up we get to the texans ravens and chargers folks be sure to stick with us all right bright whitefield next up we have the

Houston Texans who are out of sight. They added a buy week this past week. Eight and five, two up on the Colts. They had the tiebreaker over the Colts, but Texans aren't playing that good of football. Nearly lost that game to Jacksonville ahead of the buy. I've lost three of the previous four. They're coming out of the buy with the Dolphins, Chiefs, Ravens, and Titans.

What's your best case in there for Houston this year? Probably the four seat here. and then win a playoff game. The challenge there is if they're going to be the four seed and I think Baltimore is probably going to be the five. Yeah. So here's your reward. We saw this game last year.

We did. It didn't look good. I think Baltimore's better than they were last year. I think Houston's worse than they were last year. I'm not weird to say because it wasn't Baltimore the one seat. Yeah, the one seat. Sorry. So I think that's a good parlay into their issues because I remember watching that playoff game last year between the Texans and the Ravens and thinking to myself, Houston's just a young team.

Like they're a young team and it shows particularly in this game. And I'm not sure any of that got any of that got better, right? No, in fact, they probably got worse. Yeah, like I just don't think they're a very good situational team. I think CJ Stroud and the way he's holding on the football and not having the success launching it down. field. It's created some issues there. Defensively, they've certainly shown

their share of warts with their run defense. I don't know, man. I wrote on CJ Stroud as their Achilles Seal. Contemplated O-line, but I just went C.J. Stroud. How much worse does C.J. Stroud make that offensive line?

It's significantly worse. Right. Right. I think that's why you should pick C.J. Stroud. He's the fourth highest average time to throw in the NFL. And he's in the same bucket as guys like Jalen Hertz and Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold. Two of those guys are pumpkins.

Well, can't, sorry, can be pumpkins and Hertz and Darnold. Hertz is obviously fixed a lot of the things that was ailing him, but that pass offense is still a little weird. And then Donald's a complete pumpkin. The other guy is Lamar Jackson and C.J. Shroud's not Lamar Jackson. He can't buy seven seconds at will. He thinks he can sometimes. He does think he can. Point being, I think C.J. Stroud is

A lot of the issues that get blamed on the O line, he's brought that on himself. So, yeah, I think he's a limiting factor. Yeah, it's ridiculous. And a lot of times at 13 games. I can't get over that safety he took, bro. I still can't get over it. 8.7% of dropbacks are a sack. It's a lot, man.

Yeah. What's the sack of pressure rate? I don't have that in front of me. Okay. I know that's also high. I don't, I haven't looked in a couple. weeks, but it was very high as well, which is 100% of QB stat. Maybe the world anointed Trevor Lawrence and C.J.

Stroud a little too soon. A little too soon on that one, Brett Whitefield. Yeah, we got to get better at saying young quarterback is promising, showing really good signs, exceeded expectations as a rookie without saying he's a top five quarterback. We just have to get better at that. It's kind of ridiculous. Baltimore Ravens sitting at 8 and 5. Currently, your number 5 seed in the AFC playoffs. What's the best case scenario for Baltimore this year? Best case?

I mean, they're going to be the five seed. They're going to. Actually, is there a chance? They're not the five seed? Is there a chance? Totally is. Yeah, there's absolutely a path for that. They're two back of Pittsburgh with one to play against Pittsburgh.

We went through Pittsburgh schedule. It's a gauntlet. Horrible. The Ravens got the Giants, the Steelers, the Texans, and the Browns. Like, tell me they can't win those four games. Yeah, so best case for the Ravens, I guess would be the, three seed then actually. 100%. And then I do think

I think this team has massive flaws, but I also think they have enough on the other side to make up for it to where they are probably Super Bowl contenders. So I think three seed and a run up to Super Bowl is legitimately on the table for them. Totally agree with you on that.

And the Ravens at their best is as good as team, any team in the league. There's no question about it. The problem is they're very sloppy. Yeah. The penalties are off the charts, the, um, putting themselves in negative situations with, maybe not just a penalty with, you know, a play fake that's not properly executed, fall on the ball.

Now it's second and 18. Uh, obviously the defense, right? The defense has been real, really an issue, uh, particularly their past defense. I'm looking, oh, they've given up over a hundred. explosives in the past game this year already. They didn't give up over 100 last year and there are well over 100 already.

They lead the NFL by over 20. And dude, like one of the biggest differences this year versus last year is they're just not taking away the football like they did last year. True. They took away the football double, more than double the percentage of drives

last year than they did this year. They're at like 7, a little over 7% this year taking away football. Last year there were 14, It took a lot of football all the time. And so not only are they giving up plays, they're also not taking away the plays that they did last year. So if they play a clean ball, they're going to be tough to beat, but they get in their own way a little bit too much. Now, I think their biweek came at a good time. Rally, we talked about their schedule.

Nobody's going to really be excited about playing Baltimore because we know what they are at their best, but they got to play their best. Gets us to the charges. Chargers are currently, 8 and 5. They are the number six seed in the AFC playoffs with the same record as Denver, but Chargers beat Denver. And I think they have one more to play, if I'm not mistaken. Are they done with each other this year? No, they got one more to play.

They have one more to play December 19th. they'll play. That'll be a big game. What's the ceiling for Los Angeles this year? Can they go on the road and win a playoff game? Depends against who? If they're playing against the Texan. Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or Houston. Yeah, they can go be Houston. I don't think they'd beat the other teams. They'd have to be the five seed to beat Houston, though.

Which is possible? Yeah, it's possible. If, say, Pittsburgh finishes strong and beats the Ravens and knocks the Ravens down a little bit, Yeah. It's possible. That's probably the only route, though, right? Well, I think they would need, yeah, I think there's a couple of different ways they can get there. Pittsburgh or Baltimore,

losing a couple of games, that's going to position them to maybe be the five, right? Because if they're going to have five or six losses, there's a world where the Steelers or the Ravens could be there too. I think it's unlikely. But I think it's going to be a tough challenge for them to go across the country against a team like Buffalo, Pittsburgh, or Baltimore. Yeah, that's a nightmare scenario for them. What do you think their Achilles heel is?

I think they're just not enough, like lack of general talent probably. I mean, it's year one of a rebuild. think about that so very much a success story for them you see the culture change already but i just think across all positions they just don't really have a dude sorry offensive lines got a couple dudes but other than that wide receiver room probably still needs another dude to go with lad and kj i don't think palmer's a long-term you know difference maker there um shoot they don't really have many playmakers on offensively general but defensively is the same story i mean joey bose is still good. Is he elite like he was? Probably not. De-tackle situation's rough. Linebacker room. They have

culture fits. They don't have studs. Secondary. I mean, secondary is a mess, but they're playing well, but they're a mess. So I just think lack of talent across the board is going to, and in the games they've lost, you've seen that come to fruition. That's why they've lost. They don't have enough playmakers to get the job done. Yeah, and I think they missed Dobbins right now, running the football. The the rushing offense has not been what it's been the last few weeks. And I think that they're also a bit of a script-dependent team where it's like, hey, we're not going to turn it over, we're going to be opportunistic on defense, we're going to run the football, we're going to be good on possession downs,

will be decent in the red zone. And I think that's tough when you don't have, like, you're not super dominant at any one thing. Yep. And you talked about some of like, just, hey, we have some personnel issues here, where we got to get better. I think it's going to be a good year one for Harbon. I'd be very excited about the path forward. But it's all of that, right?

I don't know. There's one thing. It's all of that baked into one thing that I think would logically give most people some concerns about the chargers and their capacity this season. All right, we have three more teams to get to. The Broncos who are in and the Colts and the dolphins who are knocking on the door, folks be sure to stick with us. Brett Whitefield, the Denver Broncos are up next. they're the number seven seed. They're eight and five.

They're two up on the Colts and the dolphins who sit at six and seven. What's the ceiling for Denver this year? What, seven, six or seven seed? And then, you know, same scenario as the Chargers. They'd have to go on the road and beat a pretty good team. I think the Texans are probably the one team they could go beat. Not sure they'd beat anybody else in the playoffs. Well, they're not going to have a chance to play the Texans.

They're going to go to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Yeah, that's, that's going to be tough. But like, what a great year for Denver. I think it's already been successful where you've shown a lot of growth under Sean Payton, Bow Nix, in-season growth. You feel like you've got your direction there to see through. And you can just keep building. You can keep building this offseason adding to a defense that has been impressive.

And I think the rushing offense here is going to be an important part of what they become. And I don't know that they have the back on the team yet. That's going to be the guy. And I think they can still, you know, like compliment their run and pass a little bit more. I think there's just a lot of development that's going to come. But for them to be eight and five, for them to be staring at a playoff opportunity, I think they're going to get in.

I think that's a great year one for Bo Nixon, a great year two for Sean Payton. I agree with that fully. The Achilles heel here is just that it's kind of exactly what we just talked about. they have a rookie quarterback. They have a rushing offense that's okay. They, I think they have room for a lot of personnel upgrades on this roster. Especially on offense.

Yeah. They have no dudes. They have no playmakers. I mean, Marvin Mims looks nice when he touches the ball, but that's like twice every three weeks, you know? Yeah.

And I mean, I think Sutton's a decent. piece, but he's, he's fine, but. Yeah, who's your, who are we building this offense around? Right. Sutton's old. Devon Val is an undrafted rookie, or sorry, a late round pick. Mims seems to not be in favor with Sean Payton. Troy Franklin's hardly playing. And his, his target share is like bottom of the barrel in the league when he's on the field. It's, it's rough. It's crazy, right? For there really to not be go-to-

options. There's no lead running back here. Lucas Kroll was the tight end. I didn't even know who that was coming into the season. I watched my pit. Yeah, I remember. Yeah. It's just trying game in year. They need massive talent upgrades on offense. Their by week comes at a good time. Eight and five, they go Colts, Chargers, Bengals, Chiefs to close this thing out. Be interesting. Those last three will be, those are all interesting games. Yeah. You can see that going a number of different ways. And I think that's, when you look at that,

especially with this game against the Colts, with the Colts knocking on the door. That's a big one, man. Especially because if Denver loses the Colts this week and they have to go to the Chargers, to the Bengals, and close with the Chiefs, and if the Chiefs have anything to play for, I mean, you can see this getting away from a little bit.

See him getting away from him a little bit. Which gets us to the Colts who are on the outside looking in at six and seven. But whether it's chasing down Houston to be the four seed, or chasing down Denver, who again Denver this week that's one of the biggest games in football then they go Titans Giants Jaguars Brad Whitefield don't tell me the Colts are dead baby they're not dead oh they're not getting in they are absolutely not dead um obviously they should have win at least three of their final four I mean that's first and foremost and then that's a winnable game versus

Denver man you know I think what if they go four no They're going to be the seven seed. They're going in. And maybe, depending on what happens with Houston, they'll be the four. And I'm pretty sure you and I both picked them to make the playoffs. Yeah. And then we looked silly about that early in the season. And now that's not looking so bad.

Yeah, I had them as my seven seed. Looks like you did as well. Yeah. Look at that. So that's their ceiling, right? Their ceiling is the four seed. And then I don't, I don't know how much further they get here to be hosting. Baltimore or Pittsburgh in round one, that doesn't feel good to me.

Right. But if they do that, I mean, and overcome that stretch in the middle of the season where they lost four out of five, that's a tough games, obviously, they lose the bills, they lose the Vikings, they lose the lions. I mean, that was a murderer's row. But yeah, I mean, shoot, they benched their quarterback. To go to the playoffs in a year you benched your quarterback and then brought them back. That's saying a lot about the coach. I think the Achilles heel here for the Colts is secondary talent.

I think it's that their lack of efficiency on offense still exists. They certainly get some big plays. They're potent, but if teams are going to dare Indy to stack plays and take away explosive, like I don't know that's a great recipe in world for Andy to live in with their lack of efficiency on offense. Yeah, I think all that's true. I still wrote down Richardson though. Like I love Anthony Richardson. Been a huge supporter.

He was my number one QB in that class. I still, as much as he's impressed me with the last three, because I still think he's probably. At the end of the day, he's going to be their biggest limiting factor. Unless he continues to just get better week over week. That's just asking a lot out of a second year player

with like no reps under his belt. Yeah. Well, at the root of the efficiency comment that I made, it was, okay, Anthony Richardson. So. For sure. And they've had some offensive line injuries, but I think there's a lot riding on these last four games because could they go four and oh or three and one and really give themselves a chance? Yes, but if they don't and they wind up going two and two and now they're an eight and nine football team, you know, I think you're going to look at Shane Stuyken as on the hot seat coach going into 2025.

Woo. Yeah. Yeah. And he was like the hot name. Right. Last up, the Miami Dolphins, they have a pulse, Brett Whitefield. They are currently the number nine seed at six and seven. But for the same reasons that we talked about with what's ahead for a lot of teams, right, that are two up on Miami, they have a shot here.

Very much so. What's their ceiling? sneaking in and losing. Sneaking in for sure. Do you think, though, Joe, they'd be better equipped to win one of these tougher games than say the Colts, Broncos, or Chargers? 100%.

I would rather play the Colts, Broncos, or Chargers than the Dolphins. Yeah, 100%. Exactly what I was thinking there. I wrote for the Achilles heel. I wrote down that to a missed five games. Well, that's not going to plague them not. Wait, well, it is because the record. They might not get in because of it.

That is what I'm saying. Right. But if they do, the reason that they won't be able to succeed, like the reason, that's their problem right now, Tua got hurt. That's their problem right now. But they're limiting factor based on who is available. I think there's other things. I mean, with Tua and the fray, now they have a chance.

But they got to go out when they go in three road games at Houston, at Cleveland, at the Jets, their home games against the Niners. yeah, Houston's going to be hungry, especially coming out of the buy. But I said all that to say that, like, I think this team's actually pretty good, man. That's why I made the two a comment. I think, like, do they have issues for sure? Are they, are, I don't think they have one glaring issue that makes me super concerned about them. I think some of the pass rush.

I mean, pass rush, yeah. They didn't answer it a little bit, though. They're scheming it up, Joe. Right. That's a tough world to live in. It is a tough world to live in, and you have to be on it, on every single, like, you call one package that doesn't get home, then you're giving up a 70 bomb. So I don't know. I just, I guess I like this team.

I like this team way more than I thought I would at the stage of the season. How about the rushing off? The rushing offense has been nothing lately. Yeah, what is up with that? Well, they don't have Austin Jackson at right tackle. It's a killer loss to them. He's an important part of the run scheme. And Armstead's hurt again.

Well, shocked. Right, but it's like they're, and they're not getting as much out of the run game. Obviously, potent in the passing offense, but I don't think they're two-dimensional right now, which is a problem, especially when you're talking about going on the road. Three of the last four on the road,

if they get to the playoffs, they're going to have to go win on the road with no rushing offense and hopefully you can scheme it up with your pass rush. I think the rush defense is very good. Questions about the secondary as well? They really haven't run the ball well lately. Holy cow.

Right. Gone. Austin Jackson, man. It's crazy. One guy can make that big of a difference. Well, when you're wide zone rushing offense and you got to win the edge and you're blocking tight ends are Durham, Smyth and John Hussmith and you know, you don't have any receivers that block at a high level, right?

Like, I don't know, man. I don't like I said I'd rather play Denver or the Chargers or the Colts or the Broncos as a two seed than Miami. Especially given like you know, Miami's a divisional team if that's the world the bills have to live in. But I think there's there's enough to be concerned about in addition to Mike McDaniel and how he manages football games and when game scripts aren't going favorable and he chases points and makes goofy decisions like true. hopefully we've we found the the middle ground there between like hey the dolphins are potent but also they do have issues yeah for sure i i didn't realize their run offense has been that bad i'm looking some of the advanced data it's it's like they've argued have been the worst rushing offense in the last five weeks i they try to run outside they bubble every run they take negative runs it's

it's tough man they can't win the edge anymore they already had to kind of overcompensate to win the edge and now they don't have their guys I also think I just watched their past game. I paid close attention to the run stuff against the Jets. One thing I noticed, they do all this pistol stuff with all this crazy ball handling and weird footwork. I think maybe teams have caught up onto that where it was, it used to be a disguise and they could kind of hide what they were doing. Teams are keen on that very fast now.

Like they could not win the edge against the Jets and the Jets have no edge talent. They came out hot. So the first game back with two against Arizona. I think that was like, hey, we're coming back. Then they emptied the kitchen sink against the bills and the Rams the next two. And I think they put all that stuff on tape where it's just like, what is, what is all of this ball handling? Where is all this coming from? How are they getting these angles?

And then, yeah, I do think there's been some normalization over the last three or four games. Word. And then there's the Bengals real quick. I know we said we wouldn't talk about them. They could back door in. The problem is they can't play defense. Their defense is so bad. My God.

listening to on the broadcast last night, Troy Aikman talking about his conversations with Luana Rumo, and he's like, he's like, it pains me to say this. We're just trying to get like one or two stops a game. Like, if we can't, like,

what? Really? Like, trying to get, trying to get, we can just get like one or two more stops. Wow. It's tough,

man. They give up 130 rushing yards to Rico Doudal, bro. Tough scene. It's a tough scene, man. I mean, when you let all that defense of talent that they've let out the

door the last few years and don't replace it. What are you supposed to do? It's weird. The Cowboys are kind of on a Saints trajectory where it's like, have they even had off seasons lately? Like they're just getting every year. They get a little bit worse, a little bit worse on the roster. It's kind of crazy.

All right. Should we wrap it there? Wrap it there. We'll do the NFC and talk Bill's Lines on Thursday. Heck, yeah, Bill's Lines preview, NFC, round up, plus we will get into other week. Is this, are we in week 15? Week 15, sir.

Holy crap. Week 15 preview next on Thursday. That's crazy, Joe. All right, guys. Remember, no matter what develops, we will always be your first read. Thank you for listening. We are out.