Fantasy Football Daily - AT Perry, Tank Dell, Marvin Mims with Danny Kelly | On the Clock! NFL Draft Podcast

Episode Date: March 17, 2023

Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) brings in friend of the site Danny Kelly (@DannyBKelly) of @Ringer to highlight three intriguing wideouts from the upcoming NFL Draft class, Wake Forest's AT Perry, Houston's Tank Dell, and Oklahoma's Marvin Mims. Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. We are back with another episode of On the Clock. I'm your host, Brett Whitefield, and today we are joined by Danny Kelly of the Ringer, friend of the show, and now guest of the show. Danny, how's it going, man? I'm doing well.

How are you doing? I'm excellent, man. This is the quiet before the storm for us because I'm first edition of the draft guide, the prospect guide that I've been writing comes out tomorrow. Oh, excellent. So, yeah, this is mission critical stage. How many guys deep are you at this point? So I've watched 178.

Wow. I've scored 160 and I've written up about 100. hundred you're ahead of me go yeah i want to get the 200 so nice you're well ahead of me i'm i'm still working on like the top 70 right now i mean i've watched more than that but in terms of writing guys up i'm still slowly making my way through it yeah i just turned the corner where the writing is going a lot faster now because i'm through so many guys watching yes the first release tomorrow's only offensive players oh gotcha nice yeah but then we'll we'll release defense a week from that and then we'll be adding guys every week.

So yes, fantasy points, people. Actually, it's free. I just realized this. We are making it free this year. So, yeah, whether you're a subscriber or not, please check that out when it comes out tomorrow. But Danny, let's plug your stuff. You're from The Ringer.

How can they find Twitter? What kind of content you got coming out? Yeah, you can find me at Danny B. Kelly on Twitter. And then my Ringer NFL draft guide is NFLDraft.com. And I do a top 100 in mock draft. drafts, big board, you know, full scouting reports on every, every player that I do. So yeah, it's slowly building it as we go through the draft season right now. I'm working on.

Like I said, I'm doing an update to get to 70 here in a week or so. Yeah, I've read through your guide so far, by the way, which I think you. I try not to do a lot of when you're writing your own guy because you don't want influence, you know. Totally. But I couldn't stop reading it because I love how lighthearted you do player comparisons. Yeah. It's cool. Like everyone else is so serious about them.

And then you're just like, Jalen Hyde is D.K. Metcalf if he never found a weight room. I just like, I'm in the day when I read that, man. I was like, this is amazing. Yeah, that's what I try to do. Try to, you know, not be too, not take myself too seriously. I know. But yeah, the player comps is where I can really have the most fun. Just try and like make the most off the wall things or like really literally just like the first thing I think of when I see a guy.

Like Michael Mayer I put with. the Urquai from Helms Deep and Lord of the Rings where he's just like running with like the thing to light the wall on fire, whatever, blow up the wall. So I don't know. He's just running around like a crazy guy. That's awesome. All right.

Well, we're going to get into the usual format of the show here. But first, a word from our sponsor, Underdog Fantasy Football. The 2022 NFL season is over, but the fantasy football season never stops at Underdog. The easiest place to play fantasy football. Right now you can draft an underdogs, the big board tournament, that was $1 million in total prizes and $200,000 given to first place. If you think you know which incoming rookies will burst onto the scene in 2023, now is your chance to draft them out of value.

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If you sign up using fantasy PTS at Underdog, you get a fantasy point standard subscription for just five bucks. That's Underdog Fantasy promo code, Fantasy PTS, and remember, new underdog users who sign up with our code get a Fantasy Point sub for just five bucks. All right. We got that out of the way. Let's jump right into it. So Danny, I asked you to prepare a guy you're higher on the most, a guy you're lower on the most,

and then a team player fit that you want to pound the table for. Let's go start with Wake Forest Wide Receiver, A.T. Perry, who is also one of my guys, so I love to see your high on the most. Yeah. Tell me what you got on AT. Extremely validating when I told you that, that I liked him. And then you were telling me that you're probably higher on him than I am. So that's great to hear.

I think just right off the bat, you know, there is a little bit worried just because he's an older prospect and he broke out kind of late in his career. but at the end of the day, I just really like his game. I mean, he's getting off the line, first of all, he's got a little bit of twitch to him. He's got a little bit of, like, for his height and for his size, he's very quick, he's very sudden to get off the line of scrimmage. And then, of course, he has sort of a long striding buildup speed to get downfield.

He had a lot of big plays in college. He scored a ton of touchdowns. And then, you know, obviously you could debate whether that's a skill or not, but I think it's obviously a good thing that he was, had a dose for the end zone, was able to score those touchdowns, finish plays. Yeah, he just reminded me. I was having a hard time coming up with a comp for him because he's kind of tall and skinny. Like his body type isn't super common in the NFL.

I thought maybe like a DJ Chark type of player. Oh, is my for him? Oh, is that right? Yeah. That's hilarious. Because I think he's got, you know, the chart. He's probably not quite purely as fast as Chark, but he's got the suddenness, the short area burst, the maneuverability. statistically he didn't have a ton of yards after the catch but I thought he was good at making the first guy miss and getting a little bit extra when he when he makes a catch on like the sideline or whatever like reverse pivoting away kind of like what quentin johnston does is just making the first guy miss get a few extra yards has a good awareness for the sideline um basically everything I was just watching him and I was wondering why he didn't have more hype so that was why he came to mind for this for this one yeah I don't understand that either he is a firm second round grade

for me. I think he's number eight on my receiver board and he's a guy like if you need an ex-receiver and there's not very many of them in this draft or agency like yeah go go get this dude. You mentioned the yards after catch stuff. I put that in my note as a weakness as well. There's not he doesn't really have a yak element, but to give him a little bit of the benefit of doubt there when you run such a vertical route tree. Yep. It is really the nature of what he's being asked to do. There's not a lot of opportunity for run after catch because most of work is being done on the boundary like 40 yards down field. Yeah, no, I agree.

It's one of those things where it's always funny because you're trying to, you know, predict what a guy is going to be able to do at the next level. He didn't necessarily, like you said, have a ton of opportunities to pick up yak. But there was a couple of plays. And of course, I'm not comparing him to Justin Jefferson, but there was a couple plays where he was doing, he does like this like almost like Eurostep bounding. move where he creates separation. It looks like he's almost playing basketball.

And I remember thinking the same thing when I was scouting Justin Jefferson a few years ago. It's like he has sort of like a, I don't know, it's a Euro step, I guess, that he uses in the open field. And there was one play in particular. I can't remember who it was against, but he ran a slant and then made a couple guys miss just with that Eurostep type play. And it really reminded me of Justin Jefferson.

So I don't think he's necessarily on the level of Justin Jefferson. But, you know, I was really impressed with his tape. I think he's got really good body control, the way he tracks the ball down the field, the way he adjusts to passes at the catch point. I just thought, you know, he's really impressive. And then he ran well and jumped well at the combine. So that's always good. Like the explosiveness is there. So for his size too.

Right. Like he's a tall skinny guy, but he has some explosiveness. He has a little bit of twitch to him. And yeah, I just think, you know, he had a bunch of first downs. He comes back to the quarterback. He finds a soft spot. You know, there's just a lot to like here. Yeah, for sure. I don't hate the Justin Jefferson talk. I mean, obviously, I don't do ceiling floor cops for guys. I do stylistic.

Right. So there are some similar elements to his game. Obviously, he doesn't have that level of pedigree. But I do see what you're talking about. I know the move you're actually referring to as well. And it is worth noting Perry was a four-year letterman in basketball in high school. So I mean. Oh, there you go. I love that. And that's when you say scoring touchdowns might not be a skill. Well, I think when you get a. down the red zone for him it is he definitely he plays the ball in the air like a basketball player yeah so it makes uh perfect sense yeah i i think you know perry brings like really nuanced route running for a long legged guy it's crazy how easy he can sink his hips he's got ankle flexibility to explode out of his brakes and all of that seems very impressive to me for for a guy with his length but yeah absolutely

where you come to him out in the draft i mean honestly like i'm i'm with you second third round i'm guessing he'll probably go in that range. You know, I don't know exactly how the NFL feels about him. I'm sure it'll be different for team to team. But at the end of the day, like you said before, he's one of a few guys with size in this class, a receiver. And I think he can play the ex position. And so, you know, that might push him up boards a little bit.

There's just a handful of guys that have size in this class, like Cedric Tillman, A.T. Perry, there's just a lot of smalls, I think, at the receiver position this year. And so that could push him up a little bit. But yeah, I'd be comfortable with him in the second round. And if he gets, if he goes to the third round to any team, I think that's a, that's a potential steal for them. Yeah, I agree with you fully there. I know we're doing a team player fit later, but is there any specific landing spot you like for Perry?

Oh, that's a good question. I haven't even thought about that. Nothing comes to top of my mind. Do you have any thoughts? You know, I like the Giants fit. They seem to be addicted to these small, shifty slot receiver types. Yeah. I could use, seeing the success, Isaiah Hodg.

had last year and he's not a very gifted player I think A.T. Perry would do very well on that team. I like that one. I mean, the Panthers, the Panthers need pass catchers at this point. The Bears, I think could still upgrade the position, still add to that position. Just looking down the list here. Honestly, the Cardinals. He just lose DJ Chark. What about just plugging him into that spot?

To the Lions, you said? Yeah, to the Lions. if they end up losing DJ Chark and Freedency. Yeah, absolutely. He kind of be like a possession guy on the outside. I think that he would compliment what they have in Jameson, Ross St. Brown for sure. The Cardinals, I think, need size.

You know, they're coming into this year, assuming they trade Hopkins. You know, they're another team. I think it could make a ton of sense for him. So, you know, he could fit in a lot of different places. I think he's just type of guy who could be both a possession receiver, a guy in the red zone that thrives and has a little bit of field stretching ability to him. full agree all right let's pivot to the guy you're lower on than most um just for the listener's sake too when we talk about guys we're lower on doesn't mean we hate that prospect it doesn't mean

you know we want to we want to poo poo on them at all or whatever but sometimes the hype does get a little carried away for certain guys so you brought houston's wide receiver tank dell to the table and yeah so and and i think that's a perfect segue for that because i totally agree It's not like I actually hate this guy. To start out with, obviously, extremely, extremely productive, extremely fast, very sudden. I think he had one of the top 10-yard splits in the combine, so you know he's got that acceleration, that burst. But really, there's a couple of things that make me worried, I guess, or just concerned about his future in the NFL, not necessarily that I think he won't be a pro, but just production-wise, role-wise, the size to me is a big concern.

And obviously he's 5-8-165-inch hands and 30.5-inch arm. So he's short with a small catch radius and a very slight frame. And the other thing that kind of like concerns me. So basically, there's a lot of small guys in this class. I think you could probably pick knits with a lot of these guys like Jordan Addison is small. Zay Flowers is pretty small. You know, there's a handful of other players. Josh Downs, he's pretty small.

He's actually around the same size as Tank Dell. But there's a couple other things that concern me with Dell that he is the smallest of the group, objectively, and he's the oldest. I think he's going to be a 24-year-old rookie. He kind of took like a circuitous route in college, started out, I think, at Independence Community College. Sorry, he started at Alabama A&M and then transferred to Community College and then transferred to Houston. So he's had a little bit of longer runway. I think Josh Downs probably get the edge just because he's a junior. He's done it at a little bit higher level.

So I don't know, man. It's one of those things where, especially in fantasy, like, is he ever going to be a wide receiver one? You know what I mean? Like on a team, is he ever going to play that role? Is he going to be more like a two or a three? The guy that I thought of when I was watching him, and this is, again, this is not a bad thing because this guy just got paid pretty well. Is Deonti Hardy from the Saints? Super explosive guy, but certainly just kind of limited to a certain role on an offense where, you know, not necessarily a high volume guy, not necessarily a number one.

Um, so that's my concern. And I maybe just am coming at this from like more of a fantasy point of view than an actual football point of view. Like I'm just probably going to be lower on this guy in dynasty just purely because he's so small and he would be such an outlier in the NFL. Yeah. I fully agree with that. The, the role thing is a, is a big deal, right?

Especially if you're a team trying to put a proper valuation on a player and come up with a round grade. It's like, well, realistically, what is the, what is the ceiling for him in our, in our offense? Yeah. And talk about how to maximize him. It's like, oh, well, he probably needs to be at a team that has a good one and has a good two. So he can work in the middle of the field freely because that's where he's really going to thrive.

Yep. But then you start thinking about that. And you're like, well, if they already have good receivers, then again, we're back to he's probably never going to get there as a one or two. So I do think that kind of probably limits his outlook quite a bit. I also had issues with his hands and his consistency. Yeah. a lot of weird sporadic drop issues. Yeah, I thought.

Same deal. But for like a little guy, I felt like he was really good on contested catch situations, but the easy stuff he doesn't always follow through with. Right. I think. And he had a couple of fumbles, I believe that was sort of an issue for him. So like the ball security and just overall consistently catching the football. Maybe that has something to do with his hand size.

I don't know. But I agree with you. Like he showed some ability to kind of like go up high and catch passes and contested catch situations. But, but yeah, and I think, you know, just in that offense watching him, some of that coverage, some of the coverage against Houston was just like, good God, you're never going to see this in the NFL. So that was like a little bit of concern for me just because he would like literally just do like

an easy double move and run past the guy so easily. You know, part of that, of course, is his really good acceleration. And he was, I thought he did a good job of like selling routes and basically, you know, he would like build up to it. So he would run like a couple stop routes early. game, come back, and he's really good at creating separation or write me a little bit of two-two out well. Teams are playing so far off of you.

You can have that easy win, comeback route, hook route or whatever. And then they would mix in double moves and he would be able to get over the top of the defense. So, like, obviously, you know, I don't hit, again, I don't hate the guy. I think he's got a ton of explosiveness as an athlete and he's dangerous on the double move and you can get deep and all that. But I just don't know if I see him as like a high volume guy, or at least he would be an outlier if he ends up being that type of guy.

True. Yeah. So I'm trying to think, well, you and I got to, we got to watch him pretty up close and personal down in Mobile, actually. Yeah. One thing that stuck out. So like those one-on-one drills are designed for the tank dells of the world to crush. Yeah.

Even though he did crush those drills, what you see is a lot of feet chopping and I would say wasted movements in his route and his releases. Realties in the NFL, he's, one, going to get hands on him quickly. and two, he's not going to have that much time to juke somebody out. Right. You know, some of his route running skills, while it can be impressive, I do think it's a little bit of fools gold there. Yeah, I would agree with that.

Yeah, he was a foot chopper, you know, at the line of scrimmage or at the top of his stem, you know, that type of thing. And that's actually a good contrast because going back to A.T. Perry, like, I felt like he didn't waste very much movement. He was just sort of like, you know, make one juke and run past the guy. And so, you know, there's a lot of ways to win in the NFL, but I do worry that that doesn't translate necessarily play to play. Agreed. All right.

Let's jump into your team player fit. I happen to love this. Oklahoma wide receiver Marvin Mims. And we are triple dipping the wide receivers here. Yeah. I love. I'm in fantasy mode. I'm in Dynasty mode.

Dynasty drafts are starting. So maybe that's like on the front of my mind. But yeah, I think Mims is like, you. he's the discount or whatever, however you want to say it, because he's probably not going to be a first or second round, or at least based on what I've heard and what sort of like the buzz is. But he's like a discount version of like a Jalen Hyatt or one of these, you know, the smaller top guys like Addison or whoever that's going to go on the first round.

He's a really good deep threat. So I paired him up with the Chargers. I think if the Chargers end up going in a different direction early in the draft, a lot of people are connecting the charges with like a Jalen Hyatt. And I think that makes sense from what they need in their offense. They just need some juice. They need a guy that can take the top off of defense. And Mims is, I don't know.

He's kind of like ATPR. I'm not really sure why he's not getting more hype. Like he's an early declare. He's got a ton of production. He didn't have a ton of touchdowns, but he went over a thousand yards in this last season. Going back and this is, this is probably not something that super matters, but like it kind of like does like move the needle a little bit for me. like he was an absolutely bonkers high school player.

Like he had like the most insane stats in high school. He had 32 touchdowns as a senior. You know, he's like this legendary like high school player or whatever. And so Mr. Texas football, like give me a break in Texas when you're doing that. Like to me that means something. So, you know, he's just kind of a baller in my mind. And he has, you know, similar to what I was just saying with like no wasted movement.

To me, he just, he can put. one foot in the ground and get up field so fast. He is instant acceleration. And he pairs that with kind of long strides where he will like, he basically just choose up the cushion for a corner and seems to like really surprise guys. And again, this is like, you know, big 12 corners have a reputation for sure. But the way that he's able to like overtake guys and surprise them with his speed,

I think that is something that is, you know, a perfect fit for with the chargers are looking for. you know and so he's a guy who I think would make that schematic fit I think he's probably going to outplay what people are kind of expecting for him right now I think he's a really good player yeah I don't disagree with anything you just said I also like there's a legit rack element to his game as well right yeah yeah get the guy in space he he can make anything happen the thing that like I'm really curious with him is I feel like there's a lot of developmental upside and a lot of people are taking this as a negative where I'm actually putting this as a strength we're like The Oklahoma offense was pretty limiting in the route tree he was actually running. Yeah. You're going to have to learn a more NFL-centric route tree, which is that is going to be a developmental curve. But at the same time, he's only going to get better. Those tools as a route runner are going to come as well. Like you said, right now, he can basically take guys off the dribble, so to speak, where.

Yeah, I like that. And he wins. But, man, once he starts mixing in tempo changes and, you know, really, really cool veteran-type tricks, I think he's going to get even better as a route runner. And the separation just it pops off the tape. It's kind of crazy. His production, he throws it was ridiculous. His production on what?

On deep throws? Deep throws is ridiculous. I mean, it's yeah, it really is crazy. He averaged 20 yards per reception in 2022, 17 a dot per PFF, and then 8.1 yards after the catch per per pf. And so, yeah, he has that, that yard after the catch ability. And I like what you said, take a guy. off the dribble.

I think that's like the perfect analogy. Just kind of like, again, no waste of movement. Just like, what you can go? And he just blows by guys. And he really seems to surprise them how fast he is. You know, he's got a little bit of wiggle to him. So the other thing, I think he's good at the catch point. He shows good concentration at the catch point.

Like see a ball in when there's traffic around him. You know, he got, he has a good feel for separating late when he's got some tight coverage on it. Like he'll like do a little shove off or push off at the very last second to get some separation. They use them on sweeps and screens, which I think, you know, again, goes to the ability to pick up yards to have the catch. So and when we're talking about a developmental guy, I think it is important that, and this is the Jalen Hyatt factor. This is like why I compare Jalen Hyatt to D.K. Meckhef. Like he can early on in his career play a role where he's a deep threat.

He's a guy that can beat a guy off the line, you know, threaten the defense deep, give, bring a little gravity to him in the offense. And that can be his foundation. And then as you go, you learn a little bit more about route running. You can expand your route tree, expand your role in the offense. I think it's harder for guys, and this is going back to the tank delthing. It's harder for guys who don't have that element in their game early on in their career to get on the field and be like a consistent contributor in the offense.

Because I mean, anybody can do the short and intermediate stuff and like they can kind of get by with that. But like if you can play an actual role where you're like running. deep routes, you're lining up on the outside and running deep. I think that just gives you a better chance to, like, contribute early on than if you're, like, a really short guy or like just, you know, typecast is like a slot receiver. The guy that I'm thinking of, you know, right in my mind because I'm a Seahawks fan is like Duane Eskridge, who, you know, obviously ton of production, ton of speed, really shifty.

Like, I was kind of excited. I talked, I hated the pick at the time when the Seahawks made it in the second round. And then I kind of talked myself into it because they don't have any guys who can run with like yards such the catch. But he can't get on the field because he's just so raw in almost every route in every way. And he's not like a great deep threat. And so they just don't have a use for him. You know what I mean? And so I don't know.

That's just like the thing that's coming to my mind is at least Mims can get on the field and play a very specific role earlier on his career as we saw with D.K. McCaff. And then they sort of teach him everything else as they go along. Yeah, I agree. I kind of see MIMS as a what I call a free yards candidate. Actually, you keep mentioning Metcalf. I was notorious, I think on Scott Barrett's podcast, the year Metcalf was coming out. Or maybe it was after his first year.

I said there's no reason D.K. Metcalf shouldn't have 100 yards in every single game. Yeah. And Scott laughed. He's like, that's insane. Why? And I explained just the concept of free yards where D.K. Metcalf is almost never going to see someone up in his face playing press because if he wins, you're screwed. Right.

So because of that, he gets cushion, lots of cushion. He has those built-in hitches and those outroutes where they should be able to pick up first downs at will with him. I see Mims in a similar way where NFL defenses are going to be scared of him, scared of that deep speed, scared of that ball tracking ability. And they are going to give him cushion when he's on the outside. And he's got ability to decelerate better than Metcalf does even. So built-in yards like crazy. He should be able to hit those hitches and outs and go balls right away to start his career. So like you said, a lot of free yards to be had with him.

I really love it. I don't even think, have we ever seen him run a double move? I'm trying to think off the top of my head. I don't know. I'd love to see him on a double move. Yeah, yeah. I think I saw, I'm just trying to remember off the top of my head, but I remember one play where he kind of like fake stock blocked a guy and then like,

like you said, took him off the dribble and just like went deep. Sort of like a sluggo almost. But like, but yeah, I think he has that absolutely in his bag. You know, he's that instant acceleration mixed with the long strides. He just like eats up ground so fast. Yes, I agree. So we didn't really get to it specifically, but his fit with the chargers is exceptional. They've needed the juice, so to speak, for a while.

Yeah. And every mock I've done, I've been, you know, Jalen Hyatt or Zay Flowers or something of that nature. But I did Tyler Scott in the second round in one mock draft to them. Yep, yeah. Need to see them get one of these guys, though, that can fly. It would help Kenan. It would help Mike. And we need to see what Herbert can actually do with that arm.

Absolutely. We're talking about this on the Ringer NFL draft show. The one, this is like a silver lining, not necessarily a benefit of like if they end up moving on from Echler. Because Eccler has asked for a trade. I don't know if it's actually going to come to anything. He might not. He's just probably trying to use some leverage here. But, you know, if they do move on from Echler, like Echler is such a good.

safety valve underneath. It's almost like a negative for Herbert. You know what I mean? Like it's it's almost like, well, we'd rather have you just like not have that in your back. So you should push it down field, get a little more aggressive because in that offense last,

last season, especially like they were just, you know, his A dot dropped. He was just too convenient, I think sometimes to like drop off and pass underneath. And so, yeah,

if they can get a little bit more vertical in this offense, a little more aggressive, really stressed defense is deep. That could like change the whole, complexion of their offense. For sure. Hopefully some addition via subtraction there with moving on from Joe Lombardi. Yeah, no doubt, no doubt. We shall see.

All right, Danny, that is going to do it. Thank you so much for being on the show. Tell the people one more time where they can find your work. Danny B. Kelly on Twitter. And then you can check out my big board and mock drafts at NFLdraft. Dot the ringer.com. Just go the ringer.com and it's up there on the main page usually. Awesome.

Thanks again, Danny. I will be back Monday with another guest. Thank you so much for listening. We are out. Thanks for tuning into this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, wait, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.