Fantasy Football Daily - Avoid These Players In College Fantasy Football In 2024!

Episode Date: May 14, 2024

On this episode of CFF All Access, the guys discuss the eight most overrated players in College Fantasy Football in early best ball drafts, according to ADP. Consider joining a College Fantasy Footbal...l best ball as the season approaches. There is no better way to prepare for College Fantasy Football draft season. Enjoy this livestream and take your game to the next level with CFF All Access. Make sure to follow us for more valuable college fantasy football content! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:12 Howard Froton. This is the CFF All Access podcast, and my has the Twitter X-fear been hot? Today, everybody's talking about Trey Wilson, wide receiver for the Florida Gators. But here, you know what the beauty of it is? Sure. I can argue with Nate Marchese, cheese from the old school. We can get into bickering with Chris Kay, our good friend. But the beauty of what we do here is, every time I look at the NFL ranks, everything is the exact same. Every single, oh, oh, I've got this guy two spots ahead of the other guy. That's all you get for variance. You know what you get in CFF?
Starting point is 00:00:54 Our friend Nate has Trey Wilson, wide receiver Florida at wide receiver 43. We happen to think Trey Wilson is a little more talented than that. I have him in the top 15. I think you guys are right around the 10. We didn't have them in our top 10 wide receivers, but I feel confident that he is an outside wide receiver. one, high-end wide receiver two. When it comes to Wilson, right, what I want to talk about is the receiver position in general. And what happens with the preseason rankings as opposed to where we
Starting point is 00:01:24 end up at the end of the year. What I went and I did is last year, I looked at the top 50 preseason wide receivers that we went through. I took my rank, went through, you know, a combination of the four of us, and took that 50 and went through each tier that I perceived to have because I broke them up and went through the hit rate of each tier, all right? And this is important to remember because you're going to be able to see it's fairly homogenous in the NFL, right? You would rather have wide receivers because they're more projectable because you don't know what's going to happen with running backs with their usage and with their injury history,
Starting point is 00:02:01 right? With wide receivers, we can project that. It's the exact opposite in college fantasy football. And this is what I mean, okay? last year of the top 10 wide outs preseason ranked four of them busted okay now bust is i perceive them to not be a call it top 50-ish type receiver you know or not performing to within a reasonable amount of their draft capital and since i'm frotan i can do that so four out of ten next group next perceived tier i got a nine receiver tier tier tier two seven of those nine
Starting point is 00:02:37 Busted. Okay? So you had a 40% bust rate there. Now we're at 7 of 9. 11 of the top 19 busts for the respective position. Then we're going to get over to tier three. We had 16 players in tier three. So we'll have in the top three tiers, we've got 35 players, which is basically in a 12 team lead, your top three wide receivers. Of those 16 tier three receivers, 11 of them did not perform to expectations. So for those scoring at home, 23 of the top 35 failed to perform to reasonable expectations. And then that last tier four is a bigger tier where we go right to the 50 mark. Tined it up 35 of the top 50 wide outs preseason rankings did not perform an expectation. That's an even 70% mark. And what I'm getting to here is I want to talk.
Starting point is 00:03:36 about Trey Wilson. And a big factor I have when I'm looking at wide receivers is this very metric, because I've been doing this for two decades, as you know, I am the OG. I need security in my wide receiver rankings. It's the most important thing, all right? When I'm looking at wide receivers, is this guy going to tank my season by taking him at a prominent top five round position? Okay. And I'm going to relate this to why I like Trey Wilson. in that top 15 range, okay? Because the low bust probability of his usage and of where he's at, okay? One of the refrains and respect to Nate where he is a student of the game,
Starting point is 00:04:20 excellent when it comes to looking at system history, you know, and he makes an incredibly valid point. How many times has Billy Napier, head coach, and shot call or play caller of Florida developed a number one wide receiver who goes out just tears the just tears up the sunbelt right it's only happened what once in you know the past six seven years totally viable point and i get it the problem is this is the SEC now okay billy naperia doesn't have the luxury of having a superior system right he was one of the big dogs for the most of the time he was there at louisiana now the rest of the sunbelt has come up
Starting point is 00:04:58 over the past couple of years to where you know certainly taken over c u.s.a and the mac and a thing He was probably on par with the Mountain West there in the group conferences. But he had the advantage of being just a better program than everybody else. He could implement that system. It didn't matter. He could rotate. You're in the SEC now. Okay?
Starting point is 00:05:21 Last year we saw how it went down. Ricky Piersall. Let's go through his numbers. 65 catches, 87 targets, 963 receiving yards. four touchdowns in only 12 games. No conference championship, no bowl opt-outs. We had a clean 12 games. A lot of the receivers are looking at when we're projecting, you know,
Starting point is 00:05:46 when they're seeing, oh, they are a thousand yard season or not. Most of them have 13, 14 games that we're projecting off of. Piersol would have been easily a thousand yard, 5, 70, 75, right? That's through 12 games. 2.23 yards per route. blowing the cover off of things. Pretty solid, but doesn't blow you away. Let's look at Trey Wilson. 61 wrecks on 71 targets. As a true freshman, Trey Rope Wilson led the entire nation in catch rate for any receiver who had at least 70 targets or more. Number one,
Starting point is 00:06:27 153 of them, Numero, Trey Wilson. Not something to be papered over, okay? True freshman. in the SEC, Graham Mertz throwing to him, zero drops, okay? 538 receiving yards, six touchdowns, six rushes for 55 yards. Basically, he ends up going with 606. Keep in mind, he only played 10 games, okay? So if I'm going to go and say he gets that other two games, you have a full 12-game season without even the ball game, you're looking at 70-707. Sevens across the boards. If you're playing slots, you won. Okay. That's 182 points if we're looking at that, which would be completely fine. If we just get Trey Wilson to do exactly what he did and stay healthy last year, Ricky Piersoll. No, Ricky Piersoll, he's an outside wide receiver three. He's an every week starter. I sincerely believe that. So right out of the gate, he's, I think, for security-wise,
Starting point is 00:07:33 He's not going to be reduced in role as a sophomore with a first round wideout leaving and Shemiri D.K. coming in to replace him. I don't know about you guys. Shemari D.K., Jag. Just a guy. A dude. Gets bounced out of Wisconsin and he goes, you know, follows Graham, Marshall, Florida. I'm just not concerned, okay? As you know, Michael, Khalil Jackson, one of my homies, I'm a Khalil Jackson guy. This is the truth.
Starting point is 00:08:06 And I do like him, but he's, you know, 6, 3, 2.15. It's a different ball game with 510, 180. What you're going to see here is 110 targets, at least 100, and we know how magical the 100 targets are, right? Right, Jared? Thank you. Jared talks about it all the time on chasing the nattie. I even wrote an article about it last year. Give it a shot. Won an award. The point is, I look at Trey Wilson and I know he's not going down from 777. I'm getting that. That's going across the board.
Starting point is 00:08:44 I'm banking on it. I feel like we're looking at likely 90 wrecks, which out of the gate, you're getting 90 wrecks. You're a two. You're a wide receiver two. You're a top 25 guy if you're catching 90 pass. It's math at that point. He's getting it. He's going to get that work. And his targets only in 2.2A dot because he's so explosive when it comes to, you know, forcing mistackles. So the whole usage you're getting out of Trey Wilson, it's projectable. They manufacture touches for him left and right.
Starting point is 00:09:17 Over his last six games, he have 59 targets. I'm excluding the Florida State game because by the time Florida State, that was the last game the season. And they like literally had no Jordan traps. They refused to throw the ball. wall and they grinded it out. It wasn't a normal game. Fifty-nine targets over his last six games with Pearsall. He's out. I don't care if Elijah Badger does come in. Okay, you can use him on the boundary. You're going to be moving Wilson all over the formation. He's going to be in the backfield. It'll be at H-back. He'll be a slot. He'll be wide. He'll be everywhere. He'll get touches in
Starting point is 00:09:47 every facet. He'll get rushes. He'll get manufactured and he'll get hit downfield. He is going to have over 100 targets. He is going to be the absolute bell cow. in a very literal sense for that offense by Billy Napier, because he doesn't have the talent or the luxury to play rotating two lines like it's a hockey team like he did in Louisiana. He's not coming off the field, Tray Wilson. He's getting 10 targets a game. And at an 86% catch rate like he did last year, sure, it'll come down.
Starting point is 00:10:17 Maybe it's 80%. He's getting 80-90 wrecks, and he's putting that on the board. And I can bank on it to where I know Trey Wilson is not, going to be one of those 35 out of the 50 that bust every single year. Out of that 70% to bust every year, that's not happening with Trey Wilson. And that is why I will pay a premium when I'm drafting for certainty, for raw, explosive, undeniable talent that I think overcome system, especially when you're looking at a guy who is going to get fired if he doesn't perform in the SEC. He's gone. He needs to win. You will see more completions this year to Trey Wilson.
Starting point is 00:10:57 And he will be a top 25 wide receiver two at least. Wide receiver 43 is simply too high for me, Nate Marchese. What do you think, guys? That's my cold open monologue. Take it from here. Yeah, I mean, I think we're all in lockstep with you on that. I mean, this is a guy that, again, other than the Florida State game where they didn't have Graham Mertz, right?
Starting point is 00:11:20 Max Brown was out there. Like, this guy, the lowest amount that he had fantasy points-wise, I think was 15.8 or 16.8 fantasy points per game. So it's just a, you know, he combines that nice, like high floor with the potential ceiling. That just can be unbelievable with what you said, right? With our boy, you know, Ricky Pearsall, first-round pick going to the NFL. I mean, until Elijah Badger or somebody else comes there that's a legitimate threat to him, I mean, this is a guy that Napier has already said.
Starting point is 00:11:51 We're force feeding this guy targets as Bainbridge brought up a couple weeks ago on this show. So, you know, one thing that can trump a system. is a guy that's just going to get a ton of targets. And that's what you want in a CFF wide receiver. And I was just going to add to that, just piggybacking off that, Malik Washington. Now we weren't spending the draft capital. We weren't spending the draft capital. We are on Trey Wilson last year on Malik Washington, right? He was coming off waivers.
Starting point is 00:12:19 But it's essentially the same thing. You have one guy, right, as of as it stands right now, who is, looks set in line to get all these targets, right? just a laelique Washington did last year for Virginia. And then second point with that was the last time a Virginia receiver was, you know, or what that staff, when was the last time that staff had a really good top 10, top 20 fantasy wide receiver, right? There's outliers every single year to that point. And particularly a slot wide receiver, right? I mean, that's what Malik was. This is a guy that caught 90 targets or had 90 targets within, you know, behind the line of scrimmage or within nine yards.
Starting point is 00:12:59 Again, you can profile that for Tray Wilson. He's also going to get targets down on the field. I love this. Clint Carlson, though, changing gears a little bit, said, 11-minute monologue. Is this a new record, Prothon? No, not even close. Well, hey, with that, I'm actually to transition us. We're going to take a quick break, but when we come back,
Starting point is 00:13:17 we're going to talk about our eight most overrated CFF players or guys we like to call not Trey Wilson. All right. We're going to get into it tonight. I love Proton. starting us with the strong energy and talking about our boy, Trey Wilson, who really doesn't need to be defended, but we will always come to his side at any point.
Starting point is 00:13:42 So we're going to talk about our guys. We each pick two guys that we feel like we're the most overrated, are the most guys that are getting drafted too high in CFF. So we're going to look at some ADP on these guys and then get into why each of us don't like these guys. So the first guy up is Jalen Rayner. and this is a guy at QB from Arkansas State. He is currently his ADP is round 10.
Starting point is 00:14:07 He is QB 20 as far as the position. And I'm going to let Zach Hall take it from here. You picked him, Zach. Why do you think that Rainer is going overdrafted? I did. And I'll be interested to hear your guys' thoughts on him as well. But he's a guy, like you mentioned, he's going around QB20, which really is making him a QB2. Some of these drafts, though, he's a QB1 for these teams, which,
Starting point is 00:14:30 which if I was going into a season with him as my QB1, I would be a little bit worried, I think, about that quarterback room. For a couple of reasons. One, he was wildly inconsistent last year. So one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks that we saw last year, he came onto the scene like week three. He put up two huge weeks, right? 40-point games.
Starting point is 00:14:54 Everybody ran to the waiver wire. This guy looked like he was going to be a league winner. And then I actually think he might have. have lost people their leagues just because of what he did towards the end of the season. And if you continue to rely on him in your lineup, he just wasn't getting you, getting you the value that you were really expecting. He, like I said, he had the first two weeks, he was over 40 points, looked great. He ran into a Troy defense where he got six points that week.
Starting point is 00:15:22 Followed up, his next best weeks were QB 29 and QB 31, which isn't awful. But then to end the season, he didn't finish better than QB 95 in the last three games of the regular season. So like I said, just wildly inconsistent. I think the argument you can make is freshman year, right? Is he going to make a jump and do a little bit better this year? And that's definitely possible. But when I look at their schedule this year, I'm not super confident. They, first two games of the season, it's not too bad.
Starting point is 00:16:03 It's central Arkansas and Tulsa. I think those are two games where you can definitely see him hit that ceiling, right? Like, he could explode in those two weeks. And then he runs into Michigan, Iowa State, he has a buy. And then South Alabama, who wasn't great defensively, but they stopped him last year. They were able to figure out how to slow him down. He only got 11 points in that game against those guys. And then towards the end of the season, he runs into Troy, which shut him down last year, usually pretty solid defense.
Starting point is 00:16:36 And then Louisiana, who was a top 30 team against quarterbacks last year looking at how they did against quarterbacks versus their average. So there is really seven weeks that you look at and you're like, I don't know what we're going to get from him. Some of those are unplayable. I would never play him in that Michigan week or the Iowa State Week, right? That's just not, it's not, he's not going to get you what you need. He does end the season against Georgia State, U.L. Monroe, and Old Dominion. So there's going to be some value there. But again, just going at QB20, a QB2 on your roster, it just, that's a big risk to me.
Starting point is 00:17:19 A lot of times, the way that I draft quarterbacks, I always try and grab one of those top tier guys. and then follow up with a QB2 that's that's really steady, that's really consistent. There's quarterbacks going around the same time as him that I just like a lot better. You're looking at guys like Preston Stone is going after him in a lot of drafts. I'd much rather have Preston Stone. Will Howard, it's kind of up in the air. What's that going to look like? But he's going after him in some of those drafts.
Starting point is 00:17:49 Joey Aguilar, who he's kind of a quiet QB, but very consistent. He's going to get you that 25 to 27 every week. So you can rely on him a little bit more. And then the last thing that really causes a little concern for me with Rainer is Timmy McLean, who just transferred there. And I don't even know what to make of that. It was really weird to me because you got to assume that McLean was leaving Central Florida because he was the backup to go somewhere to start and he goes to Arkansas State. who has Rainer there.
Starting point is 00:18:27 So I don't know what that quarterback room is even going to look like come fall. I expect it still to be Rainer, but I don't know. I think that also diminishes his value quite a bit. And he's a guy that where he's going right now, I am not actually touching him at that spot. So that's what I got on him. What do you guys think? Yeah, exactly.
Starting point is 00:18:50 Here, let me just address the Timmy McLean part for a second. Like, I think he looked at the situation. My guess is that Arkansas State had Rainer who started, you know, a handful of games and then a freshman. I think that's the only scholarship quarterbacks that they had out on the roster, okay? They needed bodies. And, you know, outside of what? New Mexico State maybe, there's not really a landing spot, in my opinion, in college football where you're just going to walk into a starting job. So I, you know, you can battle a, I just think that's why Timmy McLean went there.
Starting point is 00:19:26 You see a shallow depth chart. There is a QB1 there, but, you know, you're not going to find many, many situations where you're just going to walk into a starting job. So I don't really, I think the Timmy McLean part is overblown. Yeah, and keep in mind, this is Arkansas State. And the roots of that coaching staff stem from Blake Anderson, who's now at, you know, Utah State, but let's not forget, the Lane Hatcher, you know, dueling Banjo QB situation that Blake Anderson had and his offensive coordinator when they were running the two QBs would effectively at that, but they were running it was Keith Heckendorf, who is, I believe
Starting point is 00:20:12 he's still the O.C. there. He was over the past five years. So like, it's an institutional thing with Arkansas State where they have done it before. It's most of the same guys who are on staff same OC. There's no reason why we couldn't see McLean, at least on the very least, he's a great runner, short yard packages, you know, goal line, you know, when you're within the five and they're like, all right, we're going to bring in McLean and run like a VIR type option package. You think that's not out of the realm of possibility? I think it is. I think it's very much in the realm of possibility and just for the clouds this issue. Yeah, I mean, I totally agree with that. would say like potential counterpoint is that Rainer is also a very good runner and now that you
Starting point is 00:20:56 have a McLean that if he comes in there he's there's not going to be much of a drop off very similar skill sets so maybe they didn't run Rainer as much later in the season because they felt like if they lose them they're losing a lot and with McLean coming in if Rainer does have the reins so to speak then they'll just let him run and go off and that's what he does best that's what he brings to the table is his leg. So that is the other thing. You know, if you're drafting Rainer, I'm a guy that has drafted a lot of Rainer, which when you put, you know, Zach, when you put him on this list, I was like,
Starting point is 00:21:28 oh, crap, like, I'm going to let's go that, which is great. But, like, what I will say is a guy like me, at least while I'm drafting is, is because of the upside, right? Those first couple weeks of the season, it showed what he can do if he has the green light to run. But there is, I thought, Zach, he laid out a beautiful argument for why he's overdrafted. I do want to say, I don't think Rainer is a horrible value. I just don't like him being QB 20.
Starting point is 00:21:58 Like, he's a guy to me where if you can get two or three solid QBs first, and then you're kind of taking that risk because he could give you, like there's five, I have five weeks marked where he can hit that ceiling, right? But there's just too many weeks in there where it's like, I just don't think he can count on him. So I would rather have him as that QB3, QB4 on my roster and not take him so high and go for one of those other guys you can get in the same time frame.
Starting point is 00:22:23 Yeah, I like that. One last thing before we move on to Zachariah Branch. If you're going to draft Rainer, you need to come back around and draft a Brady Cook a few rounds later or somebody that's going to be consistent that you know what they're going to give you. So you have that high floor because like Rainer could totally bust. All right. Our next guy that we have in the list is Zachariah Branch.
Starting point is 00:22:44 He is going around 780P, wide receiver 31. this is Mike Bainbridge's boy. Well, it's not his boy. It's the boy that he likes to bust on. My boy, I'm the USC guy. I don't like to bust on any of these boys. Proton, that's true. Froton, good point.
Starting point is 00:23:03 Proton, you can have a rebuttal here in a minute. But Mike, why is Zachari Branch a guy that you're not drafting at his current ADP? Well, let me just ask, I kind of covered Zachari Branch a few episodes ago. and I want to ask you guys, is there any reason to draft him within the first 15 rounds outside of his five-star status? I'll hang up and listen. Within the first, how many rounds?
Starting point is 00:23:30 I'll give you, I'll give you, let's start with 10. I would venture to give you 15 to 20. Oh boy, 20. Outside of his five-star status. Tell me a reason, please. Yeah, I totally understand. And, you know, having a, I did draft him. I think in the 10th in one of our five Champions League draft,
Starting point is 00:23:51 I went to the spring game and I regretted it. And I see why. I mean, there's just so many weapons there. It's hard to say you're going to draft this guy. I mean. Well, there's other factors too. Give it to us for a time. Well, okay.
Starting point is 00:24:08 It's the same problem I have with one of my players that I have coming up year and one of my fades, it's USC going to the Big Ten. I think it's pretty fair to say that the PAC 12 did not specialize in defense last season. It's almost like they were, you know, burdened by even having to play it. They didn't really want to do much of it. Going to the Big Ten now, you know what I'm saying? Going from USC, you're going from Caleb to Miller Moss. I've had the good fortune of watching both of Miller Moss's starts at quarterback. I saw him against Louisville in the bowl game over at Peco Park in San Diego, and I was at the spring game. He looked great.
Starting point is 00:25:05 Don't get me wrong against Louisville. Man, in the spring game, his arm, he came up short on multiple downfield throws, did not look confident, didn't. look like he had the juice to really bring it downfield, multiple interceptions. It was, concerning from what I saw. I think you're going to be relegating that offense to just a shell of what we're used to seeing from Lincoln Riley and his Heisman caliber quarterbacks. He's had every single year we've seen. He's working with Miller Moss now. I mean, he just doesn't have that kind of arm talent, frankly. That kind of concerns me because, I look at Branch and I'm seeing his usage in each of these two games.
Starting point is 00:25:51 I'm waiting. I'm wanting it. I'm keying on the guy. And he's just getting these shallow manufactured, but, you know, just game plan touches. And he's not opening it up when he gets it. You know, he's going 10, 12 yards, but he hasn't gotten loose, you know, other than that first game against San Jose State where he just, he looks in. incredible, the punt return. I mean, it's there. But does it flourish this year for the purpose of redraft? He's got two more. He's only a sophomore in this particular iteration of USC, first year in the
Starting point is 00:26:29 Big Ten, with a quarterback that is definitely not the caliber of Caleb Williams. And playing a schedule that, I mean, they're opening with LSU. Then they play Michigan week four, Wisconsin week five. Minnesota week six, Penn State week seven. Okay, so I'm a fantasy owner, right? Week one, LSU. Okay? I mean, yeah, I know they were brutal last year in the secondary, but this is still an SEC LSU and a turning over USC.
Starting point is 00:27:04 Have fun. I mean, you can start Zachariah Branch, but maybe you don't want to. Then you got Utah State, fine. Buy Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State. That is a tough road right out of the gate. You know what I mean? And that's before.
Starting point is 00:27:21 They go to Maryland. Fine. Rutgers, Washington, Nebraska, UCLA, Notre Dame they end with. Where's the breaks in this schedule? Utah State, they don't have another cupcake on the schedule. It's a different world they're entering. And they don't have Caleb. And if I had to go by when the people I talked to,
Starting point is 00:27:41 I talked to all the beat writers too, Jacoby Lane's the one that's the time. talking about. Sure, Zachariah is there. You know, like, well, you know, Zachariah, but, you know, Jacoby Lane is really showing. It's almost like it's a given. Like, yeah, it's Zachariah, but we'll see it.
Starting point is 00:27:59 Maybe it happens. Maybe it doesn't. I'm thinking around 15 to 20, as Michael is saying. The talent is still undeniable. That's how I preface the question, right? Outside of the talent, is there another. reason. You talked about the manufacturer touches, right? He's not going to get the target chair that Trey Wilson's going to get. Now, there's four guys who are rotating through. It's going to be
Starting point is 00:28:24 lemon, juice, Jacoby, and him. It's all four, they're going to mix and match, and they can all play. Seven receivers had 25% of the offensive snaps last year or more. I think it's going to be the same this year. Rotation. I mean, if Jordan Anderson, Blitnikoff Award winner couldn't crack the top 30. I don't see Zach Rybranch even sniffed. He did get hurt, too, in fairness to Addison. He got a lot of targets. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:28:55 But like, he even had 17% target share, if I'm not mistaken, which is not, you know. You're right. I'm sorry. I mean, he was productive in terms of what he was doing. Like, he's on the field. He was good. I think he missed three games, if I'm not mistaken. And that certainly impaired.
Starting point is 00:29:13 He did not play all times. Marvin Mims at Oklahoma didn't. I mean, you know, there's been some talent guys that weren't able to put up any numbers in the Lincoln system, and they had stars throwing them. Yeah, I mean, I think, and again, we've talked about this before on the show, but hey, if you want to go after a USC wide receiver,
Starting point is 00:29:32 pick them late. There's plenty of them left, round 20 plus. Take a shot on Jacoby Lane there and some other guys. Don't take a shit. No, Jacoby Lane, he's mine. Don't take a shot. There you go. Proton's got him.
Starting point is 00:29:44 He'll give us a monologue next show on that one. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Hey, we're going to move on from Zachariah Branch. We're going to talk about a quarterback that we think is being drafted way too high here right after this next break. All right. This next quarterback, I don't think it should be much of a surprise.
Starting point is 00:30:07 But Noah Fafita quarterback, Arizona is a guy that's being drafted in round 8, QB17. And that's pretty consistent. I thought that that would happen like early on, like in March. March and then we've talked about him. Other shows have talked about No Fafita being drafted too high. And yet he continues to be drafted really high around QB17. We have them in our ranks at QB 38. At least I do.
Starting point is 00:30:34 I don't know where everybody else has them. And so that's 21 spots lower than what he's currently being drafted. Noah Fafita is a guy that for me, like he just is not going to run the ball enough in order to make up value. And he's not going to probably throw the ball enough either in order to have value other than, I mean, I think you average like 20 fantasy points per game last year, right around there.
Starting point is 00:30:58 I think that's what you can expect this next year. But Mike, you know, you're another guy that has been, you know, in lockstep with Noah Fafita. Like, what are your thoughts? I mean, do you think he's overrated, being overdrafted, or would you take him in round eight? I think it's kind of how you laid it out, right? If I'm drafting a quarterback, I want a high volume passing attack or a guy that can run the football.
Starting point is 00:31:23 I don't know that he's going to be in either of those, right? It's going to be a system change this year with the new coaching staff. And what I always get a kick out of some of these, like, just because we have them in the 30, 40, whatever range, doesn't mean we're, we hate the player, right? It doesn't mean we don't think he's a good quarterback, right? Good quarterback, just probably not a great fantasy option being drafted where he is. So that's my opinion on that. Very good quarterback.
Starting point is 00:31:52 Absolutely the number one or two receiver in college fantasy to throw to in Ted McMillan, but you're not going to run the football enough to score 25 fantasy points per game consistently. Well, obviously, if we're talking about four-point passing touchdown leagues, he's significantly hampered by that. And they lose cowing, too, which, to be fair, you know, to remember he had double-digit touchdowns, I think you had 13 touchdowns last year. So he could shake guys in multiple ways and certainly helped around the goal line. And he won't have that luxury opposite of McMillan, though.
Starting point is 00:32:29 You know, Limonious Craig is certainly being drafted and needs to be respected. With Fafita and Arizona, you mentioned the change. You know, Brennan's coming in from San Jose State. And you forget, I mean, when they had Cordero, They threw the ball a lot. Now, if you go back to last year, that was he, it was the exact opposite of San Jose State. You had Kyrie Robinson, you had Kwali Conley, and you had a really good experience offensive line. They were just leaning on teams, just, just mauling them on the ground.
Starting point is 00:33:01 But that isn't, I mean, they were one of the more fast-paced offenses and had air raid principles to them for most of his tenure. That was not the case last season. I don't see any reason why we wouldn't see them throwing the ball early and often. I'm not worried about the volume. I'm really not, but switching over the Big 12, I think they'll still be plenty of competitive, but they're not in the pack 12 anymore. And they do lose cowing. We'll see.
Starting point is 00:33:33 And unknowns are bad for us. You never like unknowns because it adds conjecture as opposed to having those nice, clean, staff's in place. You know, everything's in place. You want as much continuity as possible, but I can't help but think that Brennan will lean into the Teteroa Feta combo and that we'll see more of a Chivon Cordero like offense as opposed to the one we saw last year. Do you guys know it all? I know Elijah Badger visited Arizona. I know he's also visited Florida, some other places. Any ideas if he's leaning to a certain place or if Arizona saw a possibility?
Starting point is 00:34:17 And would that change your mind on Fafita if he went there? You're the one that would know that information scouring the message boards 24-7. That's my bedtime reading. So just real quick for me, one reason why I just haven't invested any shares in him this year is this system, even if you get the passing volume, like the, only time that you're really getting a valuable quarterback is if he's going to run the ball. And I mean, you look at Brett Brennan and his best season was with Cordero in 22, but he had nine rushing touchdowns. Outside of that, I mean, Josh Love, you know, had some good seasons, but he, you know,
Starting point is 00:35:03 wasn't QB 33, so it doesn't justify taking him where he's going right now. And then you think about Dino Babers coming in as OC and all of his success with quarterbacks has been with a guy that runs the ball. And we just haven't really seen a lot of success in this system from a CFF perspective at the quarterback position with a guy that doesn't run the ball. So that's just that's one reason why I'm out on him. Yeah, yeah, those are all good points. So what would you say is a fair ranking then for Fafita? Where would you guys be comfortable taking them? I mean, I would go rounds 15 to 20, probably closer to 20.
Starting point is 00:35:51 So we're talking like QB 30-ish? That would be around 20, you know, if we're talking that? Because going around 10. You have like the 13, 14, 15 QB pocket where a whole bunch of them seem to go. like that those mid-teens are really QB heavy. So after that, you wouldn't even take them in that traditional mid-teens run. Let me ask you, Frotan, would you take Malachi Nelson or would you take Noah Fafida? Fafita, easily.
Starting point is 00:36:22 Feta, yeah, because it's certain. Easily. And it's, I feel like Babers is going to look at him and say, all right, well, I know what this kid can do. All right, maybe he doesn't run as much, but I know what he can do. and you've got the best receiver anybody has seen in their respective coaching careers to work with. And they're going to want to play with them. I feel like that, you know, you're looking at what he is as opposed to what he is. And that with the way that they're structured, I think they'll use that.
Starting point is 00:36:53 I think. So, that being said, I think that, you know, 13, 14 is still reasonable, given the relative high floor of what they can do. I feel comfortable with, I think he's an elite QB3. So that would make him a QB25, I think he's right there. Yeah, and I will say this, it's not that no Fafita can't run. I mean, he was a playmaker in high school. It's, it's not, like, he shows that in his high school film that he can run.
Starting point is 00:37:27 He chose not to run last year. but he's a guy that I do, he's not a statue in the pocket. He just chooses to keep his eyes down field when he's scrambling. Yeah, he's a, he's going to put himself in a little bit of danger too. And like when you got somebody with that kind of arm talent, you know, size of side, do you want to run him in a danger too much? That's the same argument with Jalen Raynor, right? Who's behind Noa Favita that you're going to risk running him at this point?
Starting point is 00:37:56 You don't, anyone, especially you got the magic cervide connection with Ted. Like you don't, you don't want to mess with that. But, you know, five rushing touchdowns, you know, opportunistic? I think that's, that's reasonable. It's not going to get the yard. Yeah. Yeah, the, you know what, let's, let's move on. We'll move on from Noah Fafita.
Starting point is 00:38:16 I think we're on a lockstep agreement. Proton, why don't you take us to Colin Lacey? This is a guy that transferred from South Alabama to Louisville. He's been going around round 580P, wide receiver 21. but you clearly are not not happy with that with that average draft position. So give it to us. Tell us what you don't like about Colin Lacey going in round five. Well, it's not like I don't even like Colin Lacey because I do.
Starting point is 00:38:43 It's again, you know, this is all perspective. And it's the fact that he's going in the top five rounds. Like he's a top 50 pick right now relatively right in that range overall. I just think with that sort of the variance of what can happen, what we know can happen. And that's why we value receivers high and why they are the best, are a premium, like that top 30 that you can bank on that we perceive that at least are so important. And that's why you're getting the bump on Lacey is because we perceive him to be safe. The numbers are there. 91 catches on 119 targets, 76 and a half percent catch rate, phenomenal.
Starting point is 00:39:30 1,300 yards, 7 touchdowns, great, 85th percentile PFF receiving grade. You get into like the advanced data, over three yards per route, elitally, I mean, top 10 stuff, 8 yard, 8 odd. So he's getting the manufacturer touches, you know, he's not 12, 13, 14, 14, 15. He's within that 10-yard range. It says, we're getting you the ball and we're letting you run. 9.3 yards after catch, phenomenal. I mean, as good as it gets, it might have led the nation, frankly. It's elite-el-el-lead.
Starting point is 00:40:08 So 28 broken tackles on 91 resections, 31% broken tackle rate. What more do you want from what he did in the Sunbelt? That's in Sunbelt. That's in South Alabama. It's a major Applewhite of the O.C. And that's with Carter Bradley, a guy who went to the Senior Bowl, and I watched him outperform quite a few Power 5 quarterbacks at the Senior Bowl.
Starting point is 00:40:34 And frankly, I think he hangs on his clipboard holder. He looked great. At the very least, the guy schooled, and he knew exactly what he was doing. So he had the benefit of quality QB play in a passing friendly system, in the Sunbelt, South Alabama. I mean, everything was in place. And he's obviously talented as well. 510, 190, good size. Great.
Starting point is 00:41:01 Now we come to this year. Louisville. We know about the Brahms. Time and Memorial. We all know. We've been there. If you listen to this podcast, you don't know about Purdue and Louisville
Starting point is 00:41:14 and the Brahm brothers. I'm sorry. But what happened last year? Turns out, they had a receiver from the G5. His name is Jemari Thrash. And he was getting drafted in the exact same position. Colin Lacey is getting drafted.
Starting point is 00:41:31 Just so happens. Well, what did Jamari Thrash do last year? He had a hand injury. He did have a hand injury, to be fair. Had a hand injury, yeah. Well, he had an 11% to operate, 6% the year before. But then double digit the two years before that. Okay.
Starting point is 00:41:48 Fine. 63, 858, 6. He had a hand injury, 12 rushing yards? He isn't athletic enough to get more than one touch out of the backfield. Okay, whatever. He goes from 1123, a 66% catch rate, 2.95 yards per route at Georgia State, 26% broken tackle rate. I mean, the numbers that he had in that role in the Sunbelt and then going Louisville, it's apples to apples. And while Jack Plummer wasn't a superstar, he was at least an NFL hopeful, and he was dependable.
Starting point is 00:42:26 He was good at Cal. He's been in the Brom's system for his entire career. Went to, you know, Bill Musker, him former NFL OC, you know, a Cal goes in. System Q, he knew what he was doing. At the very least, he's system. He knows where he's at. Going a little now, right? And here we are.
Starting point is 00:42:45 Tyler Shuck. We've talked about Tyler Shuck, haven't we? How do we feel about Tyler Schock being able to run the Brom system, staying healthy, doing it, having continuity at the quarterback position? I don't think he lasted the full year there. He hasn't done it in four seasons. He's going to do it now. So I don't believe it, too. You got Chris, they get two returning starters at Louisville.
Starting point is 00:43:10 Plays and upheaval. I mean, it's just a whole slew two returning starters, one of whom is Chris Bell. All right. Chris Bell, we heard about him all offseason about what a freak this guy is, how he's toasting people down field, how just everything about him, his profile, screams number one wide out. We heard it last year. We talked about it before. Here we are coming into the season. We see him in the spring game. Chris Bell's lighting up the spring game. He's looking good. And he hearing all the same things out of spring that Chris Bell is everything that you think he is. Well, that's a problem. That's a problem for me. Because. I'm not feeling great about the QB situation. I like Chris Bell anyways. I like his profile. I like everything about him. Colin Lacey was kind of a manufactured touch guy in a really potent offense.
Starting point is 00:44:01 Is he going to just come in and be that automatic one and just say, yeah, yeah. No, no. It's my job. He has a similar profile to thrash. Hand injury or no hand injury coming over from Georgia State. Until I see the transition happen from G5 to P5, I need to feel great about the player. I like Lacey.
Starting point is 00:44:23 I have industry dynasty shares of Colin Lacey. I have skepticism about taking him as a top 50 overall pick and where he's going currently in the drafts that I've been involved in. I think he's more accurate. Look, if you want to go and play those odds, I would back off and say, give me Chris Bell at the discount. I think it's close to 50-50.
Starting point is 00:44:48 of one of them, you know, one of those two is going to be the lead dog. I love Bell. Take the discount. Don't pay the premium. It's the same principle as Branch, but like it's a one-on-one, but you know the other guy is talented and he's already showed out. We've seen in spring. That's how I feel about it.
Starting point is 00:45:07 Why pay the premium when you can get the discount at a similar, you know, hit rate? I think that's a great point, Proton. Brooks is also at that discount, right? Even if you're not a Bell guy. Forgive me if I don't wet the whistle over DeCori Brooks everybody. I'm sorry. That was your boy at one point. He was my boy.
Starting point is 00:45:26 But then. But I want to ask, but what disappointed me? Yeah. You don't want to disappoint pro time. Mike and Zach, are you guys, are you the same like, hey, would you rather not take the risk on Lacey that? I mean, there's a lot of reasons why Lacey can be a risk. Would you rather go Bell Brooks later than Lacey at current costs?
Starting point is 00:45:47 go ahead yeah yeah for me for sure i you know i lacy's a guy i've avoided just because of where he's going and after some of those spring reports i mean bell's a guy that really pops to me like hey that's that's that's a guy you can get where you're not the value is really good there if he's the guy in that offense and if he's a guy that's not and you might only get a few good games you didn't waste um too much too high of a pick on him at that point so yeah i for me it's i wait for bell in any drought said I can get him, which hasn't been very many. But I would just speak to, it's late 20. No, no, it's late 20s, though, like cost of
Starting point is 00:46:23 acquisition too. Yeah. Yeah. I would just speak to Eric's previous point about bankability with those top picks and there's, you know, a little shadow of doubt with Lacey. He missed most of Spring, right? So just and to be honest, we've seen this in the past. What, two years ago? Like, we're all drafting, or maybe not all, but like people were taking shots on Brock Thompson. you know, some of those wide receivers jacket for You know, T.J. Sheffield. And then,
Starting point is 00:46:49 lo and behold, Charlie Jones just pops up late, late in fall camp. And it's like, well, this isn't unprecedented that that somebody other than the perceived wide receiver won for Brom and, you know, somebody else ends up being that guy. Yeah, that's a great point. Hey, we got, we got four players left that we want to get through. So we're going to take a quick break here. And then we're going to come back with Jalen Buckley, running back Western Michigan after the break. All right. We have, we have Jalem Buckley running back western Michigan. Zach, this is your guy.
Starting point is 00:47:23 He's currently going round 580P, running back 26 overall. And I'm going to let you take it from here. I got lots of thoughts on Buckley myself. But I'll just take it from here and then we'll come back and I'll hit some. All right, sounds good. All right. So Jalen Buckley, coming off a pretty solid campaign last year, a thousand yards, he ran for 10 touchdowns,
Starting point is 00:47:41 four games over 100 yards, finished as an RB 45. Like you said, he's currently going as. right around RB 25. He was going as early as RB20 in some of the first drafts. I think that was just name recognition probably in those early February, early March drafts. He's starting to trend more towards RB28. My big hesitation with him is his OC Walt Bell. And I just, when you look at what Walt Bell has done with running backs, there's just not a lot of value right there. He's had in the last seven years, one guy that went for over a thousand yards. But even in that season, Ellis and Meriwether at UMass finished as RB 54.
Starting point is 00:48:30 They just, there's just not a lot there. He had over 200 carries and he was still RB 54. So they don't score a lot of touchdowns in this offense, at least historically, the running backs. And it's, it's just there, when you look at the list of these guys, guys, you probably haven't owned any of these running backs that he's had in the system. Outside of maybe Ellis Meriwether for a brief stint in 21, but last year, you know, at Indiana, nobody was owning those running backs where he was at.
Starting point is 00:49:04 You would have to go all the way back to 2014, 2015, at Arkansas State with Michael Gordon, where there was a little bit more value at that running back position. but that's the big thing with me is I just don't trust Walt Bell to give us a running back. Even though I like Buckley, I just don't think he's going to give us the running back that we, that he probably could be at Western Michigan. The other piece to this is they start off the year against Wisconsin and Ohio State, which really tough schedule there. And then they face a handful of teams that were top 30 against running backs last year. fantasy as well. So the schedules, it starts off pretty tough and it's not super easy for this team once you get into the meat of the season. So just a couple things for me that stick out when I was
Starting point is 00:50:00 looking at Buckley and kind of where he was going. And again, Walt Bell's the biggest reason for me. But I don't know, Josh, what are your thoughts here? No, you, I mean, you took them all right there. I mean, look, this is a guy that last year did really well against poor competition and struggled against really good competition. And I think that is just part of being at Western Michigan. But if you start off the season with those two teams, I mean, you're talking about high injury for risk for a guy like Jalen Buckley. So he might not even be the same after those two games.
Starting point is 00:50:34 So those are the concerns for me. Do you guys, Mike, you have any concerns here? I would just say, and we've talked about this previously, like with when you're trying to pair quarterbacks, maybe if you're punting quarterbacks. If you're drafting Buckley, I would definitely pair him with a running back that has a soft schedule to start, right? A soft non-conference schedule maybe at the start of the season. So you can afford to sit Buckley for those two weeks. And then, like you said, he did better against weaker competition.
Starting point is 00:51:05 And I think we could all agree that the Mac is looking pretty dire at this point, just, you know, not able to retain the rosters because of NIL and the transfer portal and everything like that. So that would be my best advice is to pair them up with a running back if you're interested in Jalen Buckley to that has a softer non-conference schedule. Yeah, that's good. I just like to give a shout out to Alexander Thompson. I mean, he is dropping some bombs in the chat here. Buckley runs like Lieutenant Dan. Alexander Thompson coming hot. My gosh.
Starting point is 00:51:39 That's a little rough, my friend, Mr. Thompson. He also says, you're Corey Brooks is the wide receiver to home. I love the chat. Let's call. Wow. We're hot, we're hot. Photon,
Starting point is 00:51:52 that's perfect transition. We got another one from our boy, Lex. He asked, what about Bert Emmanuel? And I think that's a perfect transition to our next player. This is Bert Emmanuel. He is ADP round 16. Don't worry.
Starting point is 00:52:07 We aim to please hear Thompsonetopia on this show. So round 16 is his ADP, QB36. Mike, I'll let you take from here. Tell us what you think about Bert Emanuel. Some trivia. There are potentially three starting quarterbacks this year in college football that are former Iowa quarterbacks. Can you name them? Spencer Petrus. Okay. Deacon Hill. CFF prop legend Deacon Hill. Legend, sir. Call me Deacon. I'm out after. that.
Starting point is 00:52:51 All right. Deuce Hogan is probably a shoe-in just because they have nobody else at New Mexico. He's worth the dude. What about our other boy? The boy, you know, opposite Spence of Petrus, who made us a lot of money in the 2022. Padilla? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:06 Is he in there? That's not the answer. I don't know. I was saying. I was going to get on him again. I think Padilla is at SMU. Let's go, Padilla. Get that, man.
Starting point is 00:53:18 It's not going to be four. that. You made it's a lot of money that man. I love that. We were on a live show when that happened, I think. Oh, we were. We were out of how hard. It was like, oh, my God.
Starting point is 00:53:30 It was a, it was a, Joey Labus. I should probably know how to pronounce his name. Central Michigan. I don't even think, I'll make this quick. I don't even think
Starting point is 00:53:39 Bird Emanuel is winning that job. So I think it's a waste of draft pick. He can't throw. It's just, it's simple as that, right? He can't throw. He will be a waste of draft pick. and I don't even have them as my projected starting quarterback at this point.
Starting point is 00:53:52 Joey Labus throw for three touchdowns in the team spring game. I have an Iowa backup quarterback, probably four string, whatever he was, is going to beat out Bird Emanuel. Wow. I have a nickname for Joey Labus that I'm not allowed to put on. Tom Cotopia will be hitting you up in your DMs later. Yeah, yeah, he's going to throw a bottle in there to Joey's name. I think you can figure out which one and where it goes.
Starting point is 00:54:17 Anyways, yeah, that is absolutely true. And with Bert Emanuel, he is literally, as you all know, I love acronyms. You know, I love to come up with like terms, the Tito and the power three. I have a term, the term for Bernard Emanuel. He was the embodiment of the solo threat QB. He is the solo threat QB. He is the Asher O'Hara of 2024. We all remember Ashro O'Hara. You guys were all drafted him like he's some superstar because he ran for 1,000 yards at MTSU, and then the market correction came in and they figured out he couldn't throw. That is what we have with Burt Emanuel. It is Asher O'Hara complex, the brimful of Asher. That's what we're getting. To be fair, I don't think any of us drafted asher. I think we all thought he was overrated to.
Starting point is 00:55:06 We're with you. But hey, you know, Bird Emanuel, the only thing I have against Burt Emanuel is that even though he's a solo threat, he killed me in the industry dynasty, like CFF Championship game against freaking JD Yonkey. I had like number one team. I think I lost one game all year. Jadiyonki starts him. He goes off for 50 and Mike O'Wiley goes off for 50. And I was cooked.
Starting point is 00:55:28 So I'm not talking about Bernie Manuel anymore. I'm going to talk about La Jante Wester. And Lejante Wester is my overrated wide receiver. He is ADP round eight, wide receiver 32. And quite frankly, I don't even have him. ranked in my top 100. So I'm totally out on La Jante Wester. Like I, I would rather draft multiple Colorado wide receivers over him. But am I over correcting here? I mean, what do you guys think is the appropriate range for La Jante Wester's? Round 8, round 15. What do you guys got?
Starting point is 00:56:01 Zach, you got an idea on this? Yeah, I haven't taken him one time. If I'm going to take him, it's going to be towards the end of a draft. Like you mentioned, there's just some other guys. I think he didn't he have a pretty good spring game though? It sounded like he did pretty well there. I think that probably is going to boost his ADP, if anything, going forward. But that receiver room, I think, has been for me anyways. I haven't really quite figured out how I want to really finalize the rankings there. But he's a guy that way too high for me.
Starting point is 00:56:41 You know, I wouldn't probably take him until after round 20. just for that possible potential in that offense because they're going to throw the ball. But yeah, it's too high for me. Mike or Eric, you all got an idea of what y'all would do with Wester? I have a fairly hot take about that situation. Let's get it. And I have been drafting Will Shepard all over the place. He got him.
Starting point is 00:57:12 I think he went 14th round. I didn't take him last draft. and I wanted to see where he would go because I have almost all the shares of him to this point in the Champions League so I was like all right where does Will Shepard go if Froton doesn't take him in around 10 or 11 and he went like round 1415 I would take I would take Will Shepard ahead of Wester I think he's going to be a breakout he's going to play like that Xavier Weaver Roll said he's better than Xavier Weaver and I think he's going to be awesome
Starting point is 00:57:45 He's the guy I want and you're getting them in double-digit rounds where Wester's going like, what, five, six? Is that about right? Yeah, like, give me the test. And it goes along with the power three principle, which for you guys so you know, it's just simply potent offenses. 35 points or more, you know, 280 plus passing yards that tend to key have the three wide receiver sets. usually you look at those top two and the top two will be overdrafted. And very, very often, you can look at it with Devante Smith. You can look at it with Jackson Smith and Jigba.
Starting point is 00:58:23 You could look at it with Jalen Polk last year. You could look at it with Mekke Igbuka two years ago. All of those situations, power three, potent offenses. The number three wide receiver there end up out producing the one and or, lot of times both the one and the two. So when you can target those receivers in the big offerings, Colorado being the prime example here that we're talking about, Will Shepard is a classic power three wide receiver in round 14, 15, while Wester and then part time, you know, two-way Travis Hunter are going a lot higher in the single digits. Yeah, we're actually
Starting point is 00:59:06 seeing like Hunter's actually going a little bit after Shepard. overall. But do you think that his kind of part-time duty hinders him? And so that just makes Shepard the clear guy to target. Because they're going right around the same. He's an ex. He's the X. He's taken over.
Starting point is 00:59:24 That's what Weaver was doing last year. You know, he's that outside life receiver. He fits that profile. He is that profile. No one else fits that. I don't think Wester ends up taking that out of Shepard. Maybe he does, all right? But here's the thing.
Starting point is 00:59:38 I'm paying 14th, 13th, 13th, round you're paying fifth sixth you know so i'll take the the double round discount i'll wait the six seven rounds and i'll take the shot for on the power three wide out as opposed to one the top two in an unsettled room and there's still horn there too to take those slot reps yep that that's part of my my concern there and not that that's where west will be right right and not that i not that i think that horn is definitely not as good but like horn runs a 10600 meter and he is a good slot receiver that can play.
Starting point is 01:00:15 So Mike, I don't know if you're laughing about my love for Timmy one that knows it's that. To me McClain's high school, was his high school quarterback? Just let me have C2C and Devi, you know, angles to me and Josh.
Starting point is 01:00:34 All right, we can know some track times. I digress. Real quick, Zikari Franklin, Lex Thompson just asked about him. Last he did was visit University of Illinois, which was Barry Lundy was his
Starting point is 01:00:48 offensive coordinator when he had some good years. So let's hope that he doesn't go there and he goes back to ETSA if they're open to him. But we'll move on from there. Proton, bring us home. We got Jeremiah Hunter, wide receiver of Washington. He is our last overrated player on this list. Round eight, and he still's going pretty high
Starting point is 01:01:07 even after the Denzel Boston breakout game, wide receiver 32 overall. Tell us why Jeremiah Hunter is going too high. He's getting drafted, Jerem higher, isn't he? Oh, boy. Yeah, it's the end of the show. Well, let's take a look, all right, historically, and just go through Hunter so we understand we is.
Starting point is 01:01:26 And I understand the appeal, right? Because this is the appeal of Hunter, and it plays into the safety thing, right? 60 of 90, 965, 5 TDs in 20. 2022. All right. Pretty good. You know, 6% catch rate. Fine. Fine. That's in Cal. You should be knighted for that. Last year, 64 of 104. All right. So, you know, increase the targets. 756 yards. 7 TDs. Okay. Played the 14, the 13, 14 games. So, you know, got a full season and out of that. But, you know, takes a noticeable step back. 92% on the outside
Starting point is 01:02:10 he's an outside guy, only a 1.75 yards per route average. Now that is a key metric. I'm always looking at it like, what are you doing in terms of producing? 1.75 yards for route, that is 1.17th out of 150 receivers with 70 plus targets last year, right?
Starting point is 01:02:27 So he didn't come out especially productive, you know, and that's important. It's very important because how did he win? Well, you had 21 of those targets were contested. He caught 14 of them. Like legitimately impressive, two-thirds of his targets contested. And that's something that over his career, he caught 61%. The problem is he has a lot of contested targets.
Starting point is 01:02:52 He doesn't separate especially well. It's just my particular feeling on it when I'm watching. He's a big guy. But I think you can track him. So 90th percentile PFF grade to the top three levels. So he was winning at those spots. So in terms of his ability to, he's not a bad receiver, all right? Good hands, all that.
Starting point is 01:03:14 But let's look at system fits and how this all matches up into where he's going and how he's going to work. Cal last year, 31 points per game on offense, right? Good off 32nd in the country. Allowed 34 a game on D, 115th. they're in shootouts all the time. They're in a position where they're trailing. They have to play catch-up. They had to throw. Either it's J-knott-busting-one, or they're throwing all the time. 16th in pace of play, ripping off a play every 24 seconds. For perspective, now going to Washington, where Jedfish is the O-C, 75th in pace of play. Worst defensive conference in the P-5. Now, Washington, first year head coach Jed Fish, right? They bring in him, Will Rogers, Jonah Coleman. What did that Jedfish do at Arizona, right? In his first year, 17 points per game, through for 226 a game with Jaden DeLora. We, again, used the transfer method. Plenty of
Starting point is 01:04:25 transfers there for Arizona when he came in. It's the same thing here for Washington, okay? Zero. Zero returning offensive starters for the Huskies. Seven transfer starters. Four of them are offensive linemen. Okay? So totally rebuilt line two. Least returning offensive production in the entire FBS, 134th on offense in terms of returning production.
Starting point is 01:04:51 It says to the studs rebuild. This is not the Kalin de Bloor, Ryan Grubb, Pennix, and the three amigos outside. This is nothing like that. of reset. 17 points a game last time Fish had a reset. And he was doing that in the pack 12. Oh, were they playing? That's right. We're in the Big Ten. Let's go through their schedule. Weber State and Eastern Michigan. Congratulations. Nice start. Washington State allowed 29 points of game last year. Cool. Now let's get into the Big Ten schedule. Northwestern. 24 points a game.
Starting point is 01:05:28 Great. Play slow as molasses. David Braun taking over Fitzger Gerald there, defensive head coach. Slow. Rutgers. Great. Delightful. They're going to grind you out with five offensive stars returning and Kyle Munnangai and shitty, oh, sorry, substandard, Aethon Callie McManus. Then you get Michigan. Then you get Iowa. Then you get a buy and you get Indiana. Then you get USC. Right. Fine. Indiana and USC. Penn State. UCLA, allowed 19 a game last year. Oregon. to end. End scene. I mean, can you, let's talk about startability here, okay? This is a very important thing in fantasy football, all right? I count five games I can start them, and you get two buys. And the worst slate he gets, he gets Penn State, UCLA, by Oregon, that's the playoff run.
Starting point is 01:06:24 That's when you need them the most. You're going to trot them out there against Penn State? I'm not. I'm not doing it. Five startable weeks that you can. you can have a straight go at Jeremiah Hunter on a rebuilding team on the Big 10th. I'm going to have major pucker factor every Saturday morning that I own Jeremiah Hunter in a non-bestball league. And I got to be like, do I want to give this guy a starting spot against Iowa, against Michigan, against Penn State, against anybody, because Rutgers? Because you don't know.
Starting point is 01:06:59 All it takes is a couple of tough weeks. and it's like, hey, Jeremiah Hunter, hit the bench, pal. I drafted you wide receiver 24. Hit the bench against Rutgers. You can't play him, man. What are you doing? How can you take them there? Anybody I'm looking at and I'm saying,
Starting point is 01:07:18 I can't start you half the season, I'm not taking his wide receiver 24. He's overrated in a bad team and a tough conference. All right, real quick, Froton. Would you take, so Jeremiah Hunter was what going, eighth, seventh round. Would you take Denzel Boston in that range? I know you're a fan, but would you take him in that range? Or do you think just Washington is? I don't have to. Because I know you don't have to. It's hypothetical. Hypothetical. Denzel Boston is,
Starting point is 01:07:44 Washington, Chris Bell. It's the exact same thing to me. You heard them all offseason. He couldn't crack it because you had three gods in front of him. And now it's his time. What, do you want to be fading that guy who got ball washed all season all fall camp and dominated the spring game it's almost the same thing like i don't want any part of it except at least with colin lacey i can look and say all right bram okay i get it what's my comp for for jeremiah hunter okay jedfish year one 17 points of game jaden delura that crap offense post someone this is a this is a this is a mistake i'm sorry I firmly believe this. You should be up there in 43.
Starting point is 01:08:28 Wide receiver 45, 50. Okay. 4550, a wide receiver four. Five. I love this. This show has come full circle. We're back to wide receiver 45. Froton, that Hunter rant, that's got at least drop them to round 15, which I'm, I'm
Starting point is 01:08:47 great on that. We don't need to talk about Denzel Boston. We don't need to elevate. him at all. But hey, Bainbridge, I want to give you the floor for one last player that you wanted to talk about as overrated. And then we're going to close this, the show out. I'll make this quick, and I'm going to preface this by saying that I love Josh. It's going to officiate my wedding. Uh-oh. Uh-oh. Uh, pro time, your wedding invite, still pending. You haven't sent it back yet. Love you too. And I'm pretty sure I've seen you guys draft him, Josh more so than you.
Starting point is 01:09:19 Jeremiah Smith is a wasted draft pick. Oh, if I have a criticism with Josh and college, fantasy. It's that you think it's Debbie or C2C. Oh, wow. Realize that it's college fantasy, okay? Jeremiah Smith is a wasted draft pick for Ohio State. Dude, he's once in a generation. And you're drafting him in the 13th round. He's generational. Cool. Wide receiver two's for Chip Kelly, Yuga, wide receiver, one, four 57, wide receiver 110, 445, 423, 334, 177. Waste the draft pick. But he's so sexy. But there was this one time that I drafted Trayvion Henderson. He's killed it.
Starting point is 01:10:00 One time. I'm not going to. I will say, I will say, Jeremy. Your head is right. Our heart is in our heart's place. Well, and here, like, here's a deal. I mean, I fit myself a little bit. Look, Cedric Baxter last year.
Starting point is 01:10:14 Started out as the RB1 for Texas. Did he end that way? No. But I had a ton of both Baxter and Brooks in the 23rd. round. So, you know, he's just got to cover your basis. I will say I'd rather draft Jeremiah Smith, where he's going to Nemeca Buka at any point before him, quite frankly. What eighth ninth round last time? Eighth round? Bucca? I think, I know it's a lot. I think Jeremiah Smith is going to be the wide receiver one in that
Starting point is 01:10:42 offense. Wow. I think he's, I think he's unbelievable. We'll come back to this bookmark it. Let's go. He's taken over. I mean, his dad basically said that they showed absolutely nothing in the spring game in order to hide him. So we'll see. I could be wrong. But look, I would say at overall point, don't confuse Debbie with college fantasy folks. Okay. Yes.
Starting point is 01:11:06 Not the same. Yes. Totally agree. Jeremy Smith is totally defensible. I don't think he's the number, the number one. But fits the power wide receiver three theory. It's still Ryan Day. Ryan Day is still the offensive guy.
Starting point is 01:11:21 He's still calling the shots. okay there will still be pass his throne i'm not worried about that yes but you made a good point it is it is a question mark of how much ryan day is going to have his fingerprints on this offense one last thing eight six three kane says he should be at miami that's my boy yes we are all heartbroken that he did not end at miami but with that we've come to the end of the show we cannot go on any longer so therefore nobody else can get in a word thank you guys for listening hey If you liked Protons ran at the beginning, if you liked our circle that we brought it back together,
Starting point is 01:11:57 wide receiver 45 for Jeremiah Hunter at the end, then please like, subscribe, comment. We love doing the show. We love all the comments. Tom Cetopia, bringing the heat in the chat. We love all of it. We want this show to be interactive and engaging. And so thank you guys for all of that.
Starting point is 01:12:15 We'll be here every Monday night at 9 p.m. Eastern Time. But that's it for tonight. Until next time, do small things. with great love.

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