Fantasy Football Daily - Bad Weather Brawl in Cleveland + Trey's "Moore" Catches, Less Yards Slop Parlay | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: November 21, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Whether it's a pair of running shoes or a new car, you check how well something performs before you buy it. Why should investing be any different? At Fidelity, we get that performance matters most. With sound financial advice and quality investment products, we're here to help with accelerating your dreams. Chat with your advisor or visit Fidelity.ca. Performance to learn more.

Commission's fees and expenses may apply. Read the funds or ETF's prospectus before investing. Funds and ETFs are not guaranteed. Their values change and past performance may not be repeated. Well, T-Bro, maybe I should listen to you a little bit more often. You said last week, I had a two-team teaser. I had the Stees and the Chiefs, and you said the Chiefs leg was the one you would worry about. I lost that one by half a yard.

And I am back to 500 on my best bets this year. This is the Betts Bet Show at Fantasy Points.com. I am Joe. That is Tom. good friend Trey. Fresh off another craptastic weekend is going to be back in after spending some time in the lab this weekend. And he is rubbing off on me, Tom, because I am back at it with the teasers. This might become a Dolan teaser of the week. Kind of there might have to be a segment here where I bring up my favorite teaser. Nothing too crazy yet. I'm sure it's going to devolve

into something absolutely despicable. But it's good to be with you here in week number 12. We are one week away from Thanksgiving, which means DFS on Thursday, bets on Thursday, prize picks and an underdog on Thursday. That's the feast for me. My wife doesn't eat turkey and it's just the two of us. So I'm not going to cook up a huge bird for himself. So I'm going to feast somewhere else and it is going to be in these streets. Tom, Thursday night football. Well, first and foremost, how did you do last week on your best bet. Small winner. I got to say I'm still chafed from Monday night football, though. I would have been a much bigger winner. Gave out Nico Collins over 71.5 yards. First play of the game. They design a little screen pass for him. He takes it to the house.

77 yard touchdown. Cash the easiest bet in my life. Nope. Whole up. Laramie Tunsell, a legal man downfield. Like this guy has been out for five games. They clear. He's, He probably could have played the week before. So this guy's healthiest can be. They design a play for him for the first game, first game back, first play of the first game back. And Tunsel can't hold his water on a play.

They probably reppped like five or six times that week. So I lost, you know, end up losing that prop bet. I almost won it again. He had a 20 yards reception late in the game. Very iffy call. They ended up wiping it out.

I thought it was a decent catch. So yeah, I was really mad about that one. But still a small winner. I was also on the Bengals side, getting some points. And of course, Evan McPherson missed two field goals at the very end of that game with opportunities to put the Bengals ahead. So not that I'm complaining that much. But we're back this week, small slate, 13 games before the Thanksgiving week.

we'll find some winners here, Joe. Let's talk about that Thursday night football game. Your Stees coming off their biggest win of the season in a sloppy one, as Steelers Ravens often is. And Tom, well, this one might be a Cleveland steamer itself because we got the Steelers in Cleveland. The Browns are catching three and a half at home, 37 the total. And that's not just Steelers Browns.

total. That is weather, lake effect weather total right there in Cleveland. That opened, I think, close to 39 and a half, maybe even close to 40, and that has plummeted down. Now, it did hit 36 for a time. Then the forecast kind of improved. 37 is the total. And it's always tough for me to find prop bets or a side bet in a weather game like this. I feel like if I had to play the game, I would play Cleveland catching three in the hook, but I'm not going to do that. I have a prop bet on this game, but what's your read right now on Thursday night? Yeah, you said the 37 there. I didn't know if you meant the temperature.

It's going to be a really cold one there, 36, 37 degrees. It could be a mixture of both. Yeah, and that's the total and the temperature. Could be a mixture of some rain and maybe our first little snow game. I can't remember another snow game so far this season. And we've actually had some really good weather to start the year through at least the first 11 weeks of the season. It hasn't been too many weather situations. But this is clearly could be a worrisome spot.

The wins, at least earlier in the week, they were projecting them for closer to 20 miles per hour. Looks like some of the forecasts are now predicting it more in the 10 to 15 mile per hour range, which is, you know, that's doable. It's significantly better here. Yeah, we can throw the ball. Once it starts getting that 20 mile per hour range, that's when offenses really struggle to throw the ball. So I've been a little hesitant to get involved in the prop markets just yet until we get closer to game time, see more of the forecast,

get a better idea of what we're going to get weather-wise. But I did find one that I liked earlier on Wednesday. I took Russell Wilson under his rush. rushing yards. It was 12.5. Most of the books have moved it down to 11.5, 10 and a half. I still think there is a 12 a half at Bet365, but we'll have to see. Make sure to check your book. But he hasn't been running very much. He does not look like the same Russell Wilson that we've seen in past years, even the Russell Wilson we saw in Denver. And I think it might be a little bit by design as well. They don't want him running around as much. So I thought this number was a little

little bit too high. We haven't projected for around nine rushing yards. He's only gotten to seven yards in his first four starts. So this is a very high number compared to that. They also could be one in the game. As you said, they're three and a half point underdogs. Could be some kneel downs late in the game if they're ahead. So one of those situations where if it's around that number, he could come down from it. So I know this is a little bit of a boring prop. Be sure to check back on our Discord. We'll have more bets as the day goes along on Thursday. Of course, Alex will have his same game parley as well. It's coming off a big win in that Detroit game. So yeah, well, that is the only play I have so far on this Thursday night game, Russell Wilson under his rushing yards.

Well, you have the boring prop. I've got another one. Oh, boy. It can't be more boring than a 12 and a half yard rushing prop, is it? Well, it's kind of up there because it has nothing to do with yardage. Russell Wilson undefeated as the Steelers quarterback. He's 4-0, even though he didn't play particularly well against Baltimore, but that was his worst game so far. But there is a prop, number at least a number in this game that has hit in each of Russell Wilson's four starts as a Steeler. Najee Harris, 16 and a half rush attempts. He has gone up and over that number in each of Russell Wilson's four starts. It is a cold weather, dick in the dirt kind of game in the NFC North.

I understand that Jalen Warren is back. But Najee Harris over his last four games, all Russell Wilson starts, 21 carries, 19 carries, 21 carries, 18 carries. The number is 16 and a half. Give me Najee Harris over the 16 and a half. And if that wind is, it's not awful, like you said, 10 to 15, but, you know, those Russell Wilson moon balls, they could be affected by that the way, because he doesn't really have the kind of ball velocity that's going to pierce through that wind the way that maybe a Josh Allen has in Buffalo. So give me Najee Harris over the 16 and a half. I am anticipating a close dick in the

dirt kind of game. And if James throws the ball to the Steelers, as he is want to do, then Najee's still going to get carries as the Steelers try to grind out of victory. Give me Najee Harris over the carries, Tom. Yeah, I like this one a lot. I was staring hard at this one earlier today. I saw mostly 17 and a halves out there, but there is a 16-half at Fandall. You got to pay a little bit of a price. I think it's... Yeah, I think it was 135 for me. I had to pay. Okay, it was minus 125. I think a Fandle the last I saw. So no issues with this one. A low total game where they're favored by a little bit more than a field goal. So this seems like a good spot. And we know the Steelers and Arthur Smith, even if they would fall behind in this game, he's going to continue to stick with the run.

And Jalen Warren has had a small, you know, he gets his 8 to 10 carries per game, but it's been mostly nausey in this backfield. So I do like this one at 16 and a half if you can get that number. All right, Tom, we're going to pay some bills. Then we'll be back to talk about the rest of the week 12 NFL sleep. Tom, let's start with, uh, some of the news that we have here because this is already a podcast that I think some of the Illuminati have been tapped into because we were talking to Good Friend Trey a couple weeks ago. We're a little worried that somebody who knows the current whereabouts of Tupac Chacore is going to come after Trey in Iowa. Oh, I probably shouldn't have said that. Oh, you're giving

away too many details here. Too many, too many details about Good friend Trey. Somewhere in the Midwest. Well, I decided I was going to take some heat off a good friend, Trey, this week. Okay. How are you doing that? I'm standing in front of Tommy DeVito. Ooh. I'm standing in front of Tom. I'm telling him to go get his shine box. I'm laying the five and a half with the Buccaneers.

Off the by. Mike Evans is expected to play. I think the thing that is problematic here is the injury to speaking of Iowa. Friend of the radio program, friend of the podcast, Tristan Worf's, is injured. It looks like the Giants might get Kvon Tibido back, which could be problematic. And maybe that affects this. But here's just the fact of the matter. I think Tommy DeVito stinks. I don't know if he's a significant upgrade, if any upgrade over Daniel Jones. I think the Buccaneers getting a little bit healthier, getting Mike Evans back. I think that's a beatable

matchup through the air. Just, I'm laying the five and a half with the bucks. It was appealing to me that this was under a touchdown. Now, I paid the minus 1.15, which suggests that it might have moved to six by now. I don't know if I like it as much at six. This is, this is just, look, I've already lost to the new coach bounce. I already lost to the, oh, I think what, Simmons and Sal call him the clogger, Darren Rizzy. He should be. I mean, he told us he was clogger.

He's clogging. Yeah, well, unfortunately, it was speaking of clogging the toilet, Youngway Pooh, Miss three fuel. I'm still not over that, that bad beat. But nonetheless, I'm standing in front of the new quarterback bounce. I am going to lay the five and a half with the Buccaneers. They could win this game 20 to 14 and cover this number. I don't know if you like that one time, but that was the one that stood out to me, laying it with the Buccaneers against Tommy DeVito. I don't know if I would lay this number if it was Drew Locke playing, quite frankly. But I guess the Giants just decided, hey, if we're going to suck, we might as well suck in Italian.

Like, yeah, I do like, I think I'm leaning this way. I haven't made a decision yet for our staff picks coming off a 10 and 4 week on the staff picks picking every game against the spread. So make sure to check those out on Thursday night. But, I mean, the Buccaneers love to Blitz here. And that was one of DeVito's biggest issues last year. He just absorbed way too many sacks, was slow to get rid of the ball, which could be a problem here for a Buccaneers defense that should be a little bit healthier

out of the out of the buy here. Mike Evans is supposed to be back here. He's trending up here. I actually have a prop on him for this game. I'll hit on shortly here. And also, there was a little bit of chirping coming out of the Giants locker room today. I don't know if we're going to get this. About what?

No, about. how they handle the Daniel Jones situation and how. I'm talking shit. I think they were defending their guy. You know, say what you want about Daniel Jones, but that guy is tough as hell. And he's taking a lot of hits over the last couple of years and never spoke a bad word about anybody.

So I think there's some, a little bit of bad blood here about how the front office may have handled the situation and how he's been demoted down to the third or 14. So I'm not convinced we're going to get the new QB bounce or the new coach. bounce. I don't know if we're going to get that here because Daniel Jones is well respected in that walker room right now. That's the other thing that you have to take into account with some of these. Like, um, like, they decided to lean into being a meme, right? Like,

everybody, all the least funny people on earth are going to be posting the meme, you know, the Italian hand meme, you know, for, for Tommy Cutlets. Um, but like, you also have to take into account, like, those players in that locker room know, like, why Joe Shane, went viral this summer. Yeah. For not paying Sequan. And like speaking of somebody else who took a lot of hits, you know, for that team. And I'm already trying to take wagers.

Find me a book, Tom, that is going to be able to take a wager on which team Daniel Jones will have his one season Sam Darnold revival tour with. Because he feels like the kind of guy like Darnold, who's got the skills, you know, maybe was over drafted, but the situation wasn't always the best. And now all of a sudden, you see what a guy can do when he's got a competent NFL team around him.

I still feel like that there's a decent season. I'm not trying to tell you he's going to go somewhere and revitalize his career, the way that like Baker Mayfield has done, or the way that Alex Smith did back in the day. But like, but I just feel like there's a new, there is a chance, Daniel Jones. Like I, for instance, I feel like,

there's 15 general managers who have Daniel Jones hits the free agent market, which he will, are going to call him and say, hey, we'll pay you well, come be our backup because we think this is a really good spot for you. What team is that going to be? Yeah, I don't know. Maybe it's the Minnesota situation again with Sam Darnold there.

He's going to go get paid this summer. They're probably going to want to look for a high-end backup with J.J. McCarthy, basically not getting any kind of reps this entire season here because of his knee injury. So it's probably going to be a situation pretty similar. that. And Daniel Jones has at least gotten paid handsomely here over the last couple of years. So he's not exactly hurting for money. So he might not even have to go to the best situation for best money situation for him.

He might go to the situation where it makes the most football sense for him. So maybe ends up, you know, with San Francisco or loss. We've seen these guys go to places where they can rehab and get under a good coaching, coaching staff. So we'll see where he ends up going. But yeah, I'm not, I'm not convinced we're going to get the new quarterback bounce here for the Giants here. And as you said, the money has been drifting here, at least earlier in the week towards the Tampa Bay side. I think it does have to do with that Mike Evans potentially coming back.

And I am on a prop for him, Joe. His number has opened up at 54.5 receiving yards. It looks too appealing for me to sit on the sidelines on this one. I do think this one could stretch out closer to 60 yards by later in the week. We've only seen him with Chris Godwin so far this year in Liam Cohen's offense, but I think the offense is going to be catered around him now. We've been picking on this giant's perimeter cornerbacks all season long as well. So Deontay Banks, we think maybe he could be playing him.

him shadowing him on the outside. We would love that matchup. So I'm liking this a lot here for Mike Evans. He probably been itching to get back out in the field. He's been off for about four weeks here. So he should be close to full strength. And maybe he doesn't get the full 90% of the routes, but I still think he should be around 70% of the routes.

And this offense clearly needs him. Baker Mayfield has gotten nothing from. his wide receivers the last couple of weeks. It's been the Kate Otton show, the Rashad White show, the Bucky Irving show. So they need to get Mike Evans back going here. The wide receivers going again. So I'm liking his number a lot at over 54.5 receiving guards.

Let me get to my boring one because then we'll get to Dolan's teaser of the week because I have one. Let me get to my boring prop bet. Just completely sound rationale, which means I'm probably going to get goosed on this again. But give me Devon A. Chan over the 67 and a half rushing yards against the New England Patriots, the dolphins are heavy favorites. Rahim Mostert has really been kind of like phased out of that offense in the last couple of weeks.

They put Jalen Wright in a little bit more. But over the last two weeks, Rahim Moster has five touches and negative rushing yards. So I'm not sure this is a split backfield anymore, Tom. And I think part of the thing that is it that hurts here with Rahim Osteris, he does so much in the passing game. But the Patriots are actually the second softest. And shout out to our guy, Jake Trippy for this nugget, the second softest schedule adjusted fantasy points per game matchup for running backs as rushers.

So it doesn't even count a work through the air. They're essentially giving up the equivalent of half a touchdown or 36 rushing yards extra per game to running backs above schedule expectation. So Devon A. Chan, to me, this number's low. This is a number that he can hit in three carries, you know, with his explosiveness. So I like Devon A. Chan with the Dolphins as heavy favorites with the 67 and a half rushing yards. Give me up and over that number. Yeah, just looking at some of the other numbers here, 4.7 yards per carry allowed to running back so far this season.

third most rushing yards per game, 116.6 to the position. So, yeah, this is looking like a solid bet here. And as you said, the Patriots are trailing so much that they just face so much volume at the running back position. So this is a game where you'd expect it to continue. Seven, seven and a half point favorites, home favorites here. Patriots coming down from the cold, bitter cold New England here after today. It's supposed to get a little cold.

You got to go down to play in Miami and face a little bit of conditions, a little heat and humidity down there. So, yeah, this is lining up as a good play here. The Miami offense is really starting to click here the last couple of weeks as well. Likeing what I'm seeing out of Miami's offense, I've really upgraded them a lot. And they're very live for that final playoff spot in the AFC. So, yeah, I like A. Chan to get a lot of volume.

And, hey, we know A. Chan. he's an explosive runner. He can easily get one or two big chunk runs and get you there to your over 68 and a half. It's all right, Tom. I want you to hit anything else you like on this slate before I give out the teaser of the week. Okay, let's see what I got here.

I do have a little ATS pick, and this is not my MO usually. I love taking dogs, but I kind of like a big favorite this week. Fated them last week. Kansas City Chiefs. We're going to take minus 10 and a half here. I think Carolina might be getting a little respect here off of a couple of victories,

but they were kind of smoking mere jobs in both of them. You know, the Saints gave that game away. They were outplayed in that one. And the Giants were lifeless over. And I think that was a London game or whatever. The last time we saw that that game on Sunday morning. So, you know, I think Bryce Young has played a little better, but I don't think he's won to take advantage of this Chief's matchup. I think he could be overwhelmed by that Kansas City defense.

And I could see this as a little bit of a get right spot for this Chief's offense. They've been, they had opportunities last week against Buffalo, but we could get Pacheco back, Isaiah Pacheco. This has been a great matchup for running backs all year. get him some carries against this Panthers run defense. So I'm liking this as a spot to, I've been fading the chiefs quite a bit here over the last month in my ATS picks, but I think they could get right in this game here. Win by a nice margin here, oh, minus 10 and a half.

I like that Kansas City, even on the road here. All right, well, let me parlay that into the teaser of the week. Oh, okay. I got goose last week by the Kansas City Chiefs. The first time they call a consequential penalty on the Chiefs all year is after Patrick Mahomes scrambles to put them in field goal range, when I need a field goal to cover the eight and a half of the six-point teaser, they end up losing by nine. But I'm going back to the well, Tom. I'm doing it again.

I am teasing the Kansas City Chiefs to minus four and a half against Carolina. with the Detroit Lions to minus one against the Indianapolis Colts. And now look, there is an emotional aspect to this. Because if the lions end up blowing this leg, that means they lost, which means my Eagles are closer to the one seat. If the Chiefs blow this leg, I get to laugh at the Kansas City Chiefs. So there's, there's, I feel like there's very little downside here to me. You like the chiefs laying the 10 and a half anyway.

Yes. I like them laying four and a half a heck of a lot more. And I do have a hard time seeing the Lions. Even this could be a little bit of a letdown spot. You know, they just absolutely wallop the non-competitive Jaguars. The Colts have a little juice, you know, now that Anthony Richardson actually look like an NFL

quarterback for a week. But I still feel like the Lions have to be a heavy favorite to win the football game. That's all they got to do for me to cover this leg. and with the Kansas City Chiefs, they got a win by a touchdown. And I think they have the ability to do that against the Carolina Panthers. So it's a six point teaser, the Lions to Minutes 1 and the Kansas City Chiefs to minus 4.5. Yeah, I like this one a lot. I think I'm actually probably going to take the Colts plus seven and a half in my ATS picks.

But getting them down to minus 1 and a half, I do expect the Lions to still win. I actually got it to minus 1 because I got the line at 7. So I got the Lions to minus one, which is even better. Yeah, oh, yeah, that's a lot better. Yeah, just in case it is a one point game, if the Colts would happen to score a late touchdown and go for two and you have a little bit of more cushion there just at the minus one there. So I do like this one.

Lions have been getting a lot of smoke blowing up their butts here this past week because of the beat down that they put on the Jaguars. But I think they're going to face a little bit tougher test against another AFC South team here. So, but I do think the lines should pull this game out. And as I said, I do like that chief side. I think this is a game where we could see the chiefs actually, you know, smother an opposing team and actually put up some points. So I like that.

You're getting my full approval on this one, Joe. I wasn't a big fan of last week. So I do like this one a lot more. So, yeah, the fact that you're laying it with the chiefs makes me feel better about this. I don't know if good for it. I don't know if this is crazy enough for good friend Trey. It's a two-team teaser with two of the better teams in the NFL. I'm sure at some point I'll get into a little bit crazier in the final six weeks of the season,

but not right now. But if you do want crazy, stay tuned because right after this, good friend Trey, he's been in the lab. And, well, you know what happens when he's in the lab. He'll be back with us right after this. It's week three of Canadian tires early Black Friday sale. These surprises won't go lower this year. Maybe too long.

Save up to 50% November 20th to 27th. Conditions apply, details online. Good friend, Trey, welcome back to the show. I don't even know what, I forget what bet you were on last week, but I know it lost. But hey, look, we keep trucking along. And you still, you have one win on the year, which I'm proud of you for, very proud of you. That was the Ravens and the Chiefs Moneyline Parlay that almost lost because the Chiefs had to go to overtime. Needed overtime to beat the Buccaneers.

But look at my dog. was crimpet. She was looking very long. Now she's scared away. She knows she doesn't want to hear about my dog. By the way, for those of you listening, my dog was on the couch over my left shoulder. And she just ran away because she doesn't want to hear what slop, good friend Trey's cooking up. But Trey, how you feeling this week? My friend, I'm excited to hear, or morbidly curious to hear what we're going after. Yeah, I'm feeling fantastic. And I'm not at all concerned that my betts didn't hit last week because Alex, our guy, paid my mortgage with his SGPs for the Lions game. And that one was, geez, that one, the lottery ticket hit with like 10 minutes to go in

the third quarter. Yeah, that was, there was no sweat on that one at all. I was ready to turn football off after that and chill out for the rest of the day because I already accomplished the goal, you know? So big shots out to Alex for that one. I will say, I got some advice here today for my picks, and it's not as sloppy as you guys might want, I'll make it a little sloppier, you know, for the folks at home just to just to sprinkle some of that sloppiness. But I'm going to try to come with some some real solid picks today.

All right. Well, let's hear it. I want to, you actually are doing sensible research and you're not, you're not tugging at the hard strings. I want to hear what you got for us. Okay, so for the sensible approach to this bet. And these, these have not been posted yet. So I'm, I'm searching, I'm digging, I'm waiting for them to come up. Me and Tom talked in the green room, expecting the DJ Moore receptions prop to be around four and a half. Is that what we decided on? Yeah, I would think four and a half. It's probably going to be probably even money on both sides too. If it's a three and a half, it will be super juiced up and maybe a little bit

towards the under if it's at four and a half. So I think that will be the number though, four and a half. So if you like betting straights, you don't want to goof around, just hammer the over four and a half okay DJ more last week total flip from what he's been all season long they got him four design targets last week seven targets seven catches 40 50 some yards who cares about the yards uh it it's looking good and we're hoping you know that the books haven't quite caught up to what he's got going on so I actually like where it gets a little bit sloppier is when the all reception lines come out I'm going to bet him a little bit I'm maybe do a little bit I'm maybe do a little bit of a ladder because I think against Minnesota, we could get DJ more up to up to eight

catches, up to nine catches potentially. So I am going to be laddering him up at home against the Vikings this week. Yeah, I actually love this one. I was thinking about betting it myself whenever the line does come out. As you said, four design targets last week is Addot was at less than a yard. It was 0.9 yards. Yeah, and the matchup kind of sets up well here against the Vikings teams usually have to be a little bit more pass heavy against that really tough run defense and we're expecting. I mean, the Vikings always love the pressure. So you got to get the ball out a little quicker than usual as well.

So yeah, I like this sloppy play from DJ Moore. I might be jumping on a few of these legs too. Maybe I'll go all the way up to number eight with you to eight receptions. So this doesn't sound that insane quite. No. I've got a little bit of a sloppier play that I'm considering, okay, and I'm going to kind of walk you through what I would do in this situation. So we know that these are going to be low a dot targets. That's what we're basing our, you know, our thesis on here for this bet.

So if you wanted to get extra sloppy, you're going to wait until Sunday. Sunday, an hour before kick, half an hour before kick. At that point, okay, we're going to hope the fish are coming to the top of the water. They're just coming out there with overs, over's, overs, that's all they care about. DJ Moore sitting at about 48.5. Receiving yards right now, which is a little low. I'd be scared to bet the under on that.

So we're going to hopefully get that up a couple yards. And when we do, we're going to reverse correlate. DJ Moore, it's a little bit of a choose-your-own adventure. We'll say you could go six catches and is under. You could parlay that. You could go seven catches and is under three yards. You could go even eight catches in his under furze yards Hoping that a lot of these are short throw design targets

And they just can't get anything moving against the Viking So that's my ultimate slop I have not decided I think six is probably the highest you want to go for the catches If you're gonna you're gonna try to milk a milk a big hit there with the reverse correlation But wait till that under creeps up wait till that line get into the low 50s you know who knows And then bet the over receptions over all receptions and then the under receiving yards, that's where it's going to get a little sloppier.

But I think I'm going to do it. That is definitely sloppy, but I like where your head's at because, yeah, if they do one of these design screens or whatever and Minnesota blitzes or whatever, they could blow it up for even a loss on a play if they're going to throw all these targets to them at the line of scrimmage.

So, yeah, that's a sick twist to this. But I would definitely put a little bit more money on the DJ more latter than this reverse correlation. slop that you're giving us. And believe me, I've seen many a week as I'm betting these yardage overs. Lots of guys catch, catch balls for negative 10 yards, negative 15 yards. Oh, geez. Negative seven yards.

Trust me. I see it every week with all the overs I bet. Hey, and you never know. Like, they're coming in as underdogs into this game. Maybe they're within a score late and they're doing a little, as Scott Van Pelt calls them, the pitchy, pitty woo, and he might lose a few yards on a, on a play like that late in the game. So that would be quite the twist at the end of this game. If he's over his receiving yards prop and he throws one back on a lateral and loses five or 10 yards or something.

So that's a possibility as well. I'm trying to sell it. I'm trying to sell it. Well, I mean, we don't even know what this pays out yet because the alt reception lines haven't come out. So here's what you got to do. You got to get in the fantasy point subscriber discord in an NFL premium or all-in subscription gets you access to that. Now, I probably shouldn't say this, but, well, because you might have to wait a week, but we have a, we have a something coming this weekend that you're going to want to hear about

if you're not a fantasy point subscriber, or if you're a fantasy point standard subscriber, you're like, well, I got to lose all the bets that good friend Trey makes. I got to tell those. Well, let's get in the NFL premium discord or an all-in. You want to get up, maybe get involved with the data suite. Stay tuned to fantasy point social media, Facebook, Instagram. Twitter. We just set up blue sky this week. So anywhere you can be, we're on threads. I didn't know. Apparently threads has 275 million users. Like, I guess it's because Instagram,

like it's all a bunch of influencers, but we're on there too. So we're all, we're all there. So stay tuned to fantasy points, uh, social media this week because that you will be very, very glad you did. I want to chime in just so it's on wax, okay, as we as we out. here. Ten targets, eight catches, 49 yards. That's DJ more this weekend. You heard it here first. All right, there you go. That's a Devon Best line

right there. Tom, you remember Devon? Oh, yeah. Miami? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Like, he was like Jarvis Landry before Jarvis Landry and without the gigantic muscles and massive attitude. That's what that was Devon best. Uh, anyway, good friend Trey, Tom Brawley. I'm Joe. Remember to Stay tuned to fantasy point socials this week. Like, subscribe to this podcast's video. Please leave a five-star review.

Some jackass on our best bets podcast left us a one-star review without even writing anything. I don't like that stuff. That must have been a mistake. There's no way. Maybe they were falling, maybe they were falling Trey's picks and they're just sick of it at this point. They're giving them a one-star. I don't know. Hey, look, look, we'd say it from the outset.

We're not wise. We're just guys. I'm a mediocre better. Trey's a terrible one. you're actually the good one but we hope we made you laugh thanks everybody for joining us we'll talk to you next week