Fantasy Football Daily - Best Ball Stacking Rules & 2025’s Most Overhyped Combos w/ Graham Barfield

Episode Date: July 21, 2025

Use code SCOREMORE10 at checkout for 10% OFF any subscription. Dominate your league. Win more bets. Level up your game In this episode of Fantasy Football Daily, Theo Gremminger and Graham Barfield... break down the dos and don’ts of stacking in best ball. Should you reach to complete stacks? Is “stack blocking” even worth it in massive tournaments? We cover essential strategy—including optimal correlation, when to double-tap backfields, and which Week 17 matchups matter most. Plus, we debate the Burrow-Chase-Higgins triple stack, the sneaky Geno-Bowers-Meyers trio, and how to approach complex teams like the 49ers, Cowboys, and Chiefs. Theo reveals his favorite stack (LAR), Graham goes in on Chicago, and we close with actionable insight into how to build high-upside teams without overcommitting to popular combos. Whether you're eyeing Lamar-Henry or Maye-Henderson pairings, this is your blueprint for stacking with intent in 2025. Where to find us: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠http://twitter.com/GrahamBarfield ⁠ Join the Discord here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Podcast Transcription Here: Fantasy Points Website - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ NEW! Data Suite - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://data.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ #FantasyFootball #2025Rankings #DaveKluge #RB1 #WR1 #QB1 #TE1 #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:09 At the time we're recording this, we're 51 days out of the NFL season. It's officially draft season. People are cramming in as many best balls as possible this time of year. You can still get in as many slow best ball drafts, live best ball drafts. Best ball sort of overtaken, really the expectations we could have had 10 years ago for it. Theo Graminger, Fantasy Football Daily here on the Fantasy Points Podcast Network, joined today by Graham Barfield. Graham's joined me a bunch of times this off season.
Starting point is 00:00:38 This is the first time we're going to take. talk real best ball. Graham, you've been crushing it in the best ball streets content-wise. Let everybody know what you have going on this time of year. Yeah, man, we have underdog players and targets and values. That's been up on the site for about a month now. I just dropped my big thesis basically on the season. My draft guide is up on the site right now for subscribers. It is quite long. And if you are into strategy into basically the weeds of roster construction, conditional drafting, you know, not just like, okay, yeah, everybody kind of knows
Starting point is 00:01:17 you need to take seven to eight wide receivers, but when does actually make sense to stop at seven wide receivers? When does it make sense to draft three quarterbacks? I go into the weeds and all of that. It's always one of my favorite pieces to put together. And as always, Ryan and I are streaming every Thursday on YouTube. So if you want to listen to Ryan and I, draft teams tilt you know people sniping us left and right on underdog tune in every thursday at 2 p.m.
Starting point is 00:01:47 Eastern Ryan and I are live. Yeah. And just a quick follow-up question. This has been a conversation. I feel like when Underdog was getting bigger a few years ago, two quarterback builds were sort of all the rage. Everybody wanted to cram in as many two QB builds as possible. Of course, that gives you an extra. a wide receiver or potentially an extra running back that you can cram into your build.
Starting point is 00:02:12 This year, I think more often I'm hearing more people sort of embracing the three quarterback builds in best ball mania. This could be reflective to multiple players who were a lot cheaper than they were last year, guys like Jordan Love, guys like Dak Prescott, certainly guys like CJ Stroud are just right in the wheelhouse for three QB builds. Other people have sort of made the argument that this is just the plus EV strategy. you could potentially have three separate stacks. Where have you been at in terms of exposure in a non-superflex underdog bestball contest,
Starting point is 00:02:48 an 18 round contest? Are you more likely doing three quarterback builds or two quarterback builds? Obviously, you're mixing it up, but what would you say your general split is here, Graham? So it's like a twofold thing, I think, with this ADP environment. Like, one, the entire QB 15 to like QB 30. ADP tier is going basically like anywhere from like 10 to 12
Starting point is 00:03:13 spots earlier and then secondarily yeah it's it's like not only do you have the ability to build three team stacks it's like in that pocket from rounds I don't know 10 to 14 15 let's call it
Starting point is 00:03:27 like are you know I feel so much more comfortable taking Jordan Love Trevor Lawrence Tua all those quarterbacks over basically just contingent upside running backs. Like, yeah, Trey Benson could smash fantasy football this year if James Connor gets hurt, but like James Connor has to get hurt.
Starting point is 00:03:49 He's still really good. And it's like, it's that opportunity cost, I think, this year where it makes a ton of sense to have basically like, yeah, Lamar Hertz, Allen, like, you know, Jaden Daniels. like we love jaden Daniels but those guys project really well typically taking a quarterback in like round three or round four is like plus EV in terms of your advance rate but this year in particular it's like it's just it's a it's a it's a a year where the opportunity cost for these quarterbacks is like very slim to me and it's a scarcity thing like we have four teams like the saints the giants uh you know we're not really like super confident in their quarterbacks
Starting point is 00:04:33 Cleveland Browns. Yeah, the Browns could start four quarterbacks this year, bro. Like that's probably going to happen. So it's a scarcity thing too, where it's like these guys are kind of being pushed up a little bit more. I went back and looked at this in my article. So two years ago, about 36% of the field in basketball mania took two quarterbacks. Now that's up to 44%. It's gone up like 45% every year.
Starting point is 00:04:58 And the last two years, three quarterback builds have beat two quarterback builds in terms of like their advance rate. to the playoffs. And I think it just makes sense because everybody's kind of like you said. It is, it is around the stacking aspect. And we'll get into that today on the show. But it also just like, it provides a higher floor. You know, if one of your quarterbacks gets hurt, you're not just down to one guy now. And then two seasons ago, you know, we had the quarterback apocalypse where like half the quarterbacks got hurt. So it kind of like gives you a little bit of like added floor, you know, if your quarterback misses three or four games like Jordan Love did last year. Yeah, I think you bring up some very interesting points.
Starting point is 00:05:37 I think that you talk about like the opportunity cost. There's also the opportunity cost if I go with an early QB. They're very, very appealing this year. But if I take a Josh Allen or a Jaden Daniels or Lamar Jackson, that could be like I have, I might not get access to like a Devante Adams, a Jackson Smith, Njigba, a Maurice Hall, a George Kittle, a Tet McMillan. And then on the flip side, when you start talking about embracing those quarterbacks who are, the QB2s are very appealing. And those QB2s also allow you to like avoid pitfalls where a lot of those players that were projecting to go like when we're talking about ADPs of like 130 and below, you said contingent upside.
Starting point is 00:06:25 There's also guys who could be like near zero types if things go poorly. And, you know, I don't think this will be the case. But like Isaac Arendos are running back that we really, really like at fantasy points. It's a running back that I know Scott Barrett's very high on. But let's say that he's overtaken and loses out on the running back two job somehow. Then you're stuck holding a player with like 125 ADP when you could have just taken C.J. Stroud. So I think the opportunity cost cuts both ways and avoiding landmine picks with some of these surefire players, including some of our, like, high-end QB-3s.
Starting point is 00:07:02 We'll talk about on the show a little later, but the two of us have sort of discussed the value of Matt Matthew Stafford this year in best ball. I like the value of Gino Smith in best ball. And those guys are like dirt, dirt cheap right now. And unlike some of those ugly quarterback situations, there's so much clarity that those guys are going to remain the starter unless they get injured. Yeah, that's exactly right. And I think best ball really is kind of centered around this angle of,
Starting point is 00:07:29 like, okay, we got to nail the right teams, right? Like the right offenses. Plus, it is that avoiding landmines that is so crucial. Like last year, Marshawn Lloyd, Jalen Wright, were all kind of, you know,
Starting point is 00:07:43 both of those rookies were contingent upside players. Trey Benson, too. Like, they were contingent upside players that, like, if they're starter in front of them or they have things break their way, whatever. But, I mean, they were stone zeros. So you-
Starting point is 00:07:58 Jalen, Jeline Wright? Blake Corum, all of those guys were in that same, like the same thesis for a guy like Garendo this year, a guy like Benson this year. And, you know, when you draft a Zach Charbonnet, and it works, works out really well. And you get three top 12 weeks and a couple of top 24 weeks on top, you're like, oh, I've made the correct pick. But some of these other guys, it just destroys you. We're going to dive into best ball stacking. Is there, and we could, this could be a whole show about rules for best ball stacking. But maybe you give like one takeaway. I'll give a couple to jump out to me. Just kind of rules you can follow.
Starting point is 00:08:36 It's a don't reach, which I think we'll talk about a little bit when we talk about some of these stacks. But you see like the, it's like the the the Faustian bargain. I hope I'm using that correctly. If anybody in the chat wants to criticize that use, but it's like the Thausieen bargain of getting your Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, Joe Burrow stack could mean taking Joe Burrow at the 412 or the 501, when you see all these drafts, Graham, where like if somebody doesn't pull off the stack, then Burrow falls to like the 611. So you're talking about like pushing a guy up, potentially like 15, 15 spots where like, yeah, I get it. You got your stack. But there's going to be a lot of teams with Joe Burrow exposure, like a whole round difference behind you.
Starting point is 00:09:23 Maybe not 15 spots, but 10, 12 spots behind. And Burrow. falls sometimes. I also think that one thing that I see, and I don't know if this is something that you are seeing as well, but more and more often in best ball mania, you're seeing stack blocking where somebody will specifically take a quarterback naked, uncorrelated, to block what you or another manager is attempting to do, and they're willing to reach in order to do so. That's such a low EV thing. I can understand if I'm in a closed 12 team, league in like FFPC or NFFC and I have an opportunity it's a 12 teamer and there's big money on the line with only 11 other managers and some home leagues here as well and you see something
Starting point is 00:10:09 that work work out perfectly for someone you might like for example if somebody really really needs that RB2 I might just take that RB2 from them not let them get get away with it for punting a player and this value falls in their lap and I'd look across the table and I'd say you know I got you on that one but in in a huge large-scale field, you're basically just falling on the grenade for no reason other than to tear up your $25. So those two stand out to me. Any that you'd like to throw out? So I kind of disagree with your first point. I think there is a point to where you should reach and it makes sense especially in the late runs. And my entire thesis is basically like,
Starting point is 00:10:50 if you're right on this team, it is extremely likely that not just the quarterback, but his entire offense, like at least one running back and one of his past catchers smashes. So I went back and looked at this. Over the last four years, there have been 33 quarterbacks who have posted an advance rate at least 2% above average. And the way to think about this is basically like any quarterback that beats their ADP by 2%. And we look at the advance rates as like, you know, average is 16.7%.
Starting point is 00:11:22 If you gave everybody the same skill level, obviously not everybody has the same skill level, but give everybody the same skill level. give everybody the same skill level who was above, you know, 16.7% by at least 2%. So of the 33 quarterbacks that did be ADP by at least 2%, 30, had at least two teammates who also posted above average individual advance rates. So every single one of those 33 quarterbacks in the sample had at least one pass catcher, that's a receiver tied in who beat ADP by 2%. And I looked at the top 10 quarterback seasons by individual advance rate.
Starting point is 00:11:56 and they each had at least three teammates with above average season. So it's basically like, I guess my theory is you won't really care if you, you know, blow out ADP by eight, nine, ten spots on a quarterback to complete a team stack if that team is what you need to advance. And sure, yeah, the Joe Burrow debate, I think, is an interesting one because, you know, everybody's trying to push him down until like the 70s. But, you know, if you do drafts, say you start your draft with Chase, Chase Brown, maybe you take, I don't know, Josh Jacobs with him at the two, three turn.
Starting point is 00:12:38 You come back and you take Bro. And Broo throws for 45 touchdowns. Like you won't really care if you drafted him at 49 or 50 as opposed to, you know, now you're freed up at 72 and 73 to just basically take a running back, take the, take a falling receiver. I guess my theory is just basically like, a quarter of your entire fantasy points on your best ball roster will be explained by your stacks. And I don't know. Like Chris Wecht looked into this a couple years ago,
Starting point is 00:13:10 specifically like looking into the late rounds. And it's, he basically found that like not only does ADP value like not really matter with your late round stacks. We actually see that teams that reach on quarterback do a little better in the playoff weeks, and I think that makes intuitive sense. It's like, by the time week 15, week 16 rolls around, there's so much attrition that like certain teams are just going to be completely dead. So if you've got the highest leverage stack, again, it kind of won't matter. Like, I'm thinking about this with Dak Prescott a lot. Like, if the Cowboys just smash this year, like you won't really care if you got Dak at 120 or 115, like, I'll take him at 110 with my
Starting point is 00:13:52 lamb and pickens teams. And I'll just keep. it moving because like we talked about to start the show like scarcity is huge this year like the one thing that can ruin your best ball roster theo is like getting caught out at quarterback so that's that's my thing is like it is tricky you do have to play that like quarterback room type thing where like you don't want to overdo it and over like overpay for your stacks but I do think it makes sense to be intentional about like, okay, I have to have this quarterback here. Like I've already got my two or three running backs. I got my three or four receivers.
Starting point is 00:14:33 So just like understanding that opportunity cost is important. And just looking into the data, like it's pretty clear to me that like being aggressive on stacks up and to a point. Like you don't want to take Brock Purdy in the seventh round with your George Kittle team, obviously. But being aggressive does make sense. Yeah, I think I should like I'll further clarify. I completely agree with you. I think for me it's just sort of a and you hate to put like a round number on this because a lot of it's like a feel for like when the edge of scarcity, when the edge of a positional
Starting point is 00:15:06 player who could potentially bat way above their ADP goes. I'd say for me, when I get down to the quarterbacks that are in like the 95 range, I'm probably more willing to reach in that level than I, would like pushing a burrow pushing a hurts up an entire round just because of the players around them. And I completely agree with you. Once you get into like the land of QB2, once you get to like the Dak Prescott, the Jared Goffs, the the J.J. McCarthy's and to an extent the Justin Herbert Jordan Love level, those guys, I don't mind taking a full 10 spots above ADP because again, you're like in the 120 levels. And I feel like I'm not going to get burned doing so. And I really
Starting point is 00:15:49 want to embrace the stacks even more there. And just a big shout out. One of my buddies who maxes out the FFPC best ball tournament, the 125, so really puts a ton into it and is constantly drafting it. He had this unbelievable build with CD Lamb, George Pickens, tried to push Dak Prescott down to round 10, got burned on it, and it's like ruined his entire week. So absolutely, we'll give him a shout out. He'll remain anonymous on this one, but I'm sure he's listening to the show. Let's take a quick break. We come back. We're talking stacks. And we're going to dive a little bit into the Cincinnati stack right after this. What's up? I'm John Hansen. Best Ball is back and it's only at Draft Kings. And there's 15 million reasons to be excited. A $15 million
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Starting point is 00:17:34 All right, welcome back. Fanx Football Daily, Theo Greminger with Graham Barfield. Let's talk about that Cincinnati stack. Everybody's got a Cincinnati stack. Like anybody listening to this who drafts a lot of best ball at some point. has had the 101 or has taken T. Higgins at the two three turn, possibly taken to Chase Brown, T. Higgins, two, three turn, and then crammed in a Joe Burrow. It's going to be one of the most commonly rostered stacks, especially on underdog, because it's almost automatic for the high
Starting point is 00:18:05 volume players to have a lot of these, Graham. I know I have so many of these stacks right now. Do you start thinking about that sort of thing? I mean, I realize it's a huge scale field where stacks will be common, but Cincinnati, although it's a one of the best stacks in football on paper, it's going to be one of the most commonly rostered. Where are you at on this stack? What is your way of approaching it? Are you looking to build mega, mega Cincinnati stacks? Are you looking to just take a shot on one little bit of correlation? And is there any potential plus EV in using Mike Jaseki or even Andre Yoshavis as part of this Cincinnati? batty stack so when you take jemar chase at one and then you come back let's say you take t higgins and
Starting point is 00:18:52 or chase brown i've done the same thing as you you take the full on bangles onslaught think about what you're saying right you're saying that joe burrow is an MVP candidate he has the upside to throw for 40 touchdowns and 5,000 yards again i'm of the mind this is just the way i play the game but i'm of the mind that like i don't even really care where i get him him. Like if it's 49 or 50 or if I push and he gets to 72, 73, is it really worth that risk of like what I'm saying here is that the Bengals once again are one of the top stacks? In my opinion, I'm perfectly fine just taking Joe Burrow there at the four or five turn, not touching quarterback again until the late rounds when we get into the, you know, Dak Prescott's, Trevor Lawrence,
Starting point is 00:19:40 Tuo's, Matt Stafford's, and just say, hey, like, Burroughs the MVP. He throws, for 40 touchdowns this year and the Bengals are the team that you have to have to advance during a regular season and into the playoffs. There is a point where there are diminishing returns, though. So I think it's important to know the opportunity costs not only within the draft itself, but like on the teams that you're stacking. I said this to Ryan a couple weeks ago, I have to keep remembering to not take Mike Gassicki on teams with T. Higgins because like the only games that Gisicki had that were any good for fantasy last year or without T. Higgins. So I think there's a case to be made that, like, I just love Joe Burrow. I think he's an MVP
Starting point is 00:20:25 candidate this year. I think he does have the huge season where he like carries this offense. And I'll say I'm totally with you. Like I'm just trying to create, because I said I think this could be 2013 Peyton Manning. I think he could be 50 touchdown passes this year. I think so too. I think so too. I mean, he's playing, he's at that level. level. I mean, he had, what, seven, eight games last year where he threw for 250 and two. Like, it's like, that's just crazy in today's NFL. I think being intentional with your stacks, though, like not going overboard, like even though Gassiki was one of the highest advanced rate tight ends last year, and he is pretty cheap. And he's going at 170. Like, if you just take
Starting point is 00:21:03 Chase Brown in round three, let's say Burrow falls for whatever reason that Chase and Higgins team don't take him. Like, there is merit to being like, okay, I'll take Burrow with Chase Brown, just like, capture all the Bengals, touchdown upside, and then take Gassiki. You know, there's only one football, Theo. That's the thing. It's like, if Chase and Higgins are right, it's probably,
Starting point is 00:21:24 it's unlikely that Gisickey is also, like, absolutely crushing his ADP. Although I did just get through saying that, like, all the highest advance rate, you know, quarterbacks usually just carry their entire teams. But with Chase and Higgins specifically, like you're making a bet that they play all 17 games.
Starting point is 00:21:42 They both scored double-digit touchdown. They both have like well over 1,200 yards. Yeah, definitely, definitely an interesting one. I like the idea of grabbing Jaseki as as part of the stack, but I agree with you. It's sort of the contingent upside play that if T. Higgins misses time, Jaseki eats, it's probably a little bit higher EV to have the Jemar Chase, Mike Jaseki combo. The Chase Brown taking a step forward, both of us talked about Chase Brown taking a step forward as a
Starting point is 00:22:10 past catcher this year. He'll be a year more comfortable in the offense. He'll be in his third year in the NFL. He'll just have more time on the field. And on Fantasy Points data, there's a few metrics that point towards him taking a next step as a receiver this year. Like a Chase Brown, Mike Jaseki with Joe Burrow, I think is an interesting way to sort of leverage the field against so many Jamar Chase T. Higgins teams. But I completely agree with you on the onslaughts. It's like you get to a point where it's a little too much. You see these teams that might have just an excessive amount of exposure.
Starting point is 00:22:44 I think you want to have more sort of bullets to fire. We'll talk about game stacking a little later on the show. Curious your thoughts on the Vegas Raiders where it's so easy for me to stack the tight end one, Brock Bowers, Jacoby Myers, and then grab Gino Smith. This is exactly the kind of offense that I think if they will be highly consolidated
Starting point is 00:23:08 in the passing game and could score more points than most people think. The enthusiasm for Ashton Genti is certainly there, and I get it. But the past catchers here, we had last year, Jacoby Myers, have his best year as a pro alongside Brock Bowers. His touchdown scoring went down a little bit. He had eight touchdown grabs, 2023, four last year. Of course, Brock Bowers has a big chance to grow as a past catcher. The touchdown numbers for him could be much higher this year.
Starting point is 00:23:36 This has been an interesting one for me. your enthusiasm level for having exposure to this Vegas passing game. So two things. I think everybody's kind of missing with this Raiders offense is how run heavy they're going to be. So Chip Kelly has called plays for four years from 2013 to 16. Obviously, he had some pretty mobile quarterbacks in between there. But Theo, I mean, they never were more than like 16th, 17th and pass rate. He had two seasons where he was sixth and the fourth most run heavy team.
Starting point is 00:24:08 That was with the Niners, his last year in the NFL, and then his first year in the NFL with the Eagles, they were the sixth most run heavy team. You look at his college splits. He's always been a coach that wants balance, strives for balance. And then they just took Ashton Freak and Janice. So I have a little bit of a different approach to the Raiders this year,
Starting point is 00:24:28 where I'm just especially now because Chanty's getting cheaper, man. He's going near the 1213 turn. He's like rookie year. I keep saying this on every single show because I'm sort of dumb. I'm founded by it. He's rookie year Naji Harris price tag. Instead of being Sequin Barclay rookie year, Zeke Elliott rookie year,
Starting point is 00:24:46 we're at a gentie being of value. So I'm with you on that one. One little pushback, I would say, I do agree with you that it's going to be a run heavy team. I think that's in the DNA of Pete Carroll. I think that's in the DNA of when you draft a running back that highly in the NFL
Starting point is 00:25:02 draft, he's going to tote the rock. But I do think that the offensive passing game is going to be so highly consolidated. Deontay Thornton has a chance to be on the field an awful lot. And I think a lot of what he's going to be running are going to be, you know, go routes, a lot of cardio for Deontay Thornton. They're going to be in 12 a little bit. And I think that that's Michael Mayer can be a pass blocker, can be a run blocker out there. And Jack Beshe seems to be slightly buried. So the number of past catching options are fewer than you'd like to see at this point. And I think,
Starting point is 00:25:38 think that it's going to be a very consolidated, very predictable offense for us with Gentie, Bowers, and Myers. I think Jay and Bowers are going to be like, we're going to look up by the middle of the season and they're going to have like, I don't know, 60% of the team XFP, like by expected fantasy points. I think with Bowers specifically, when you take him in the second round, around 18, 19, 20 overall where he's going, you're making a bet that like not only is he the tight end one, but he's doing so by a huge margin.
Starting point is 00:26:08 And the way he gets there, in my opinion, is that, like, okay, Jacoby Myers is probably a fine value pick in the seventh round, but Bowers is just, like, smashing. So to me, if I'm taking Bowers there, like, I only want Bowers and Gino. I'm not really stacking up the Raiders in that sense of, like, yeah, Jacoby projects pretty well. And, like, I like these ancillary pieces. I like Jack Bash quite a bit. Brett Whitefield liked him quite a bit. But, yeah, it's just like, I don't know. I don't know what I win when I'm right when I hit.
Starting point is 00:26:38 hit Jacoby Myers in the middle of the seventh round. Like he's a good wide receiver two, good value, but like you're taking Bowers to be the tight in one and do so by like a two to three point margin. He could absolutely do that deal. Like he could absolutely score 18 half pprbrips for game this year, like destroy Trey McBride, destroy George Kittle. If he does that, it probably means that Jacoby Myers is kind of just like a meh, wide receiver two or three.
Starting point is 00:27:05 Yeah, I get it. I understand the lack of upside. around Myers. I do think that he's surrounded by a number of guys who have higher ceilings, but I would argue that Myers depends on what you do structurally, offers you a really strong floor. Myers being next to guys like Debo Samuel, Ricky Piersall, Matthew Golden, Jaden Reed. All of those guys could give you those huge spike weeks, but Myers could really be a strong advance rate player where, like, you know, all he's going to do is get back to the 2023 touchdowns, and the 2024 receptions and yardage.
Starting point is 00:27:41 I mean, it's not, it's not that difficult. And the offense as a whole just takes a step forward in terms of Gino. So I'm with you. I think Genti Bowers, they're both awesome, awesome picks right now. Gino, I like a lot, though, because I think Gino is being drafted below his floor. We've seen Gino hit QB, I think QB15 is a realistic, like, good outcome for Gino this year. you're able to get Gino now like QB 26 levels, QB 27. So I'm there.
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Starting point is 00:29:57 They're an interesting team where you have a lack of clarity at the wide receiver sort of hierarchy, where Joanne Jennings is now in a little bit of a, at $7.5 million a year, this one scares me a little bit, where Jennings wants to get traded or get a contract extension. You'd think that the 49ers are going to be rational about this, give him a maybe a slight increase in pay, like we saw a few years back with Saquan Berkeley, where it was like a million dollars just for the player to have like a win there.
Starting point is 00:30:30 maybe that's going to be the case. But then you all have also of Ricky Purcell, who we just referenced his ADP. It's at an appealing spot for the type of athlete he is, the type of draft capital he has, and the potential opportunity. Brandon Ayyuk is like a litmus test for people who, some people think this guy's going to be ready to go.
Starting point is 00:30:50 Some people are a little more injury apprehensive, but he's going like eight rounds later than he was last year, seven rounds later. Of course, George Kittle is the one. and Brock Purdy is is pretty easy to get. Shout out to Ryan Heath. When we did our Fantasy Points Brain Trust article, this was his preferred stack.
Starting point is 00:31:09 We'll reveal ours a little bit later. And make sure you check out all the Fantasy Points Brain Trust articles. It's basically Ryan, Graham, myself, Tom Brawley, Scott Barrett at times, John Hanson at times, you name it. The Fantasy Point, Chris Wecht, getting together and answering some of Fantasy Football's biggest questions. We're going to be doing so all throughout July and August to help you win your leagues. Yeah, we roll deep here at Fantasy Points.
Starting point is 00:31:35 We have an insanely deep cast of analysts. And, yeah, putting together a brain trust just makes a ton of sense. So we'll talk Rams in a little bit, but that's also my top team stack. The Niners are my second favorite. So I kind of like went down my board a little bit with my favorite for that article. The Niners, man, they just project so well. And this entire team is really cheap. like Juan Jennings is about to get cheaper to draft because of the, you know, the fear, uncertainty
Starting point is 00:32:03 and doubt about his contract. On that note, the Niners have the second most cap space this year. The real problem for them starts like next year in the following years when the Purdy numbers and the IUC numbers start to really accrue. They have some maneuverability this year for Jennings. I'm actually not too concerned. They give him some extra money like you were saying. but man, I mean, I just love this team. They have the easiest strength of schedule by opponents projected win total. So if you just looked at the win totals, some them all up. San Francisco has the easiest one.
Starting point is 00:32:39 They have the third easiest slate by Scott Barrett's strength of schedule metrics, adjusted fantasy points per game allowed. And I just really like, there's a number of ways you can play it, right? Like you can take Jennings or Pierce-all in the middle rounds. I've been hammering George Kittle. Unfortunately, Theo, he is becoming. way more expensive. When I wrote him up as a value, he was going at 52 overall in June. He's now going at 39. That's where he should be going, honestly, but he's becoming harder to draft.
Starting point is 00:33:08 I just put it in perspective, like, not to interrupt you, but George Kittle, it used to be a much easier click. Right now, when it comes to George Kittle, you're having to take George Kittle alongside guys like Ted McMillan, Omarian Hampton, Mike Evans, Breece Hall, sometimes right next to him, Jackson Smith, than Jigba. So he's going ahead of so many wide receiver ones and high upside running backs as well. So I still think that he's has a lot of value there at that even with the inflated price tag. But again, the opportunity cost has, is just become a little bit more pronounced. Yeah. I, I have him ranked there for what it's worth. I have, I'm a little lower on Bowers and McBride than the ADP. I have Kittle like right there around.
Starting point is 00:33:55 35, 36. I mean, he was the tight-in one last season by fantasy points per game over Brock Bowers. The only game where he did not finish as a top 12 score was a game in the snow against the bills where Purdy threw for like under 100 yards. The thing I like doing the most right now is when I take Christian McCaffrey in the back half of the first round, I love taking Brock Purdy with him. You're making a bet that, okay, not only does McCaffrey, you know, score 300 fantasy points again, like he's Christian McCaffrey he has this last para season where he smashes it's like you got to make a bet that Purdy stays healthy this offensive line and Trent Williams stays healthy so how do I best capture that upside it's like okay I've got McCaffrey I can also take him with Purdy and then
Starting point is 00:34:40 just have all of the 49ers touchdowns and right now I think that's that's my favorite way to play in McCaffrey is like let's just go all in on Niners for one last ride with McCaffrey the pass catchers are trickier though definitely trickier like pierceol has this kind of murky projection in a sense that yeah he got shot like let's not forget he got shot and missed all that practice time in august september he wasn't even fully right in october then he got hurt here his hamstring like rookies typically do so i'm more than willing to kind of give him a pass but feel like, Juan Jennings is their ex-receiver.
Starting point is 00:35:24 Brandon I, Yuk's gonna probably start the year on PUP, but he'll be back mid-season. They play a lot of two tight end and, like, you know, play a lot of full-back sets with used check. Like, I can see a world where Pearsall is not exactly a full-time player.
Starting point is 00:35:39 And you've got to take him in the seventh round. So Pearsall, to me, has kind of been the trickiest one to kind of figure out. Like, I'm not full-fading Pearsall just because I love the Niners so much, but he is the one I'm a little lower on. John Jennings, though, Ryan has really sold me on him just as like, I mean, he had the breakout.
Starting point is 00:35:57 Yeah, but like all of his metrics underneath the hood look awesome in terms of his efficiency on a per route basis. I mean, he was clearly the best receiver on that team last year, even like including Iyuk and Debo. He is, he is like, sixth round is a pretty nice price for him, to be honest. like I said, Ryan has really kind of sold me on him, especially in that pocket, man, like the sixth round, I don't know how you feel, but you get around 55 to like 65 overall. And to me, that's where the rankings and everything kind of really opens up. You know what I mean? Like it just feels wide open. Yeah, I mean, I have a lot, a lot more Jennings than Purcell. And I've been sort of on the Purcell train for a while. And I feel like people are punitive in their assessment of them this season, because,
Starting point is 00:36:50 of his profile as a player where he's 28 years old, just turned 28, and he was a seventh round pick that took several years to sort of break out, really like had like a nothing rookie year, and then didn't really do anything. And then finally a year four breakout. So people hate seeing the year four breakout. They hate paying excessive price tags for a player that they got off of waiver wire in a redraft the year before. But anyway you cut it, like, Jennings has sort of overcame his draft capital, and he was like a company guy. We saw him have the huge Super Bowl game where they put the ball in his hands. He had two touchdowns, including a pass, which kind of was a touchdown pass,
Starting point is 00:37:33 but it was more like a cross the field, like whatever. It's a touchdown pass, Graham. We're not even arguing about it. And I think the Jennings just is he has those vibes where the 49ers love him. He's a hell of a blocker, which doesn't matter at all for fantasy football, but it's like they don't want him to leave the field. And Brock Purdy just showed a willingness to hyper-target him. Had a higher target share than George Kittle last year,
Starting point is 00:37:58 which I know that that's not anything that that special, but it's still significant to when it, Kittal is this weapon of mass destruction, they're still going to Jennings, first read rate, Juan Jennings. So I'm with you on that one. Let's take a quick break. We come back.
Starting point is 00:38:13 Let's talk about the Dallas Cowboys. All right. Welcome back, Fantasy Football Daily. Theo Griminger, Grand Barfield. let's talk about Dallas. The appeal of Dak Prescott stacks this year, just how excited are you about the Cowboys, Prescott? And you talked about George Pickens.
Starting point is 00:38:30 We've talked about him together. It's very easy for me right now to take C.D. Lamb, fall up with George Pickens, and then get Dak Prescott. I can even go full onslaught and take Jake Ferguson as well. And there's not necessarily a running back that's say, that I see on that roster that's going to have a lot of touches. and potentially burn the Dallas is a passing team narrative?
Starting point is 00:38:54 I was looking at my exposures this morning. I got to take some more pickens. I'm heavy on lamb. I got to get some more pickings because I'm just bullish on Dallas's offense this year. I think DAC in this offense, it's just like one of the best injury discounts on the board. So Dak tore his hamstring pretty badly last year. Obviously had to have surgery, didn't come back. He's had a full year to get this right.
Starting point is 00:39:18 Looks amazing. Brett Whitefield has been saying that like he's, you know, looks great, loves that he's a little skinnier, a little healthier. Oh, he's like really lean. Like yeah, he's like really lean right now. Like a guy really put a lot of work in. We'll call him skinny, Dak. Dack. Skinny deck. There you go. Yeah. 12 pounds later, I would guess. Then what we saw him. Yeah. He was last on a football field. Like super lean, deck. Yeah, he looks he looks really good, man. And I think this team just has so much upside because the last. two seasons, I went back and looked at this. In DAC Prescott's starts, the Cowboys have scored points on 47% of their possessions. That would lead the entire freaking NFL, Theo. That would lead the lions, the Ravens, lead the bills, lead the chiefs, lead them all. And this team is going to be extremely pass-heavy. Just look at the personnel. That's why you bring in George Pickens. They were number six in pass rate in 2023. They were 10th in pass rate last year in DAC's starts. And to me, this all means that, like, C.D. Lamb has the wide receiver one upside.
Starting point is 00:40:25 This team just has so much volume. Like, George Pickens is going to be awesome for this team, for sure, just in terms of, like, what he'll provide, not only as, like, a downfield target, you know, gets made of coverage for DAC, but, you know, he's also going to open up things for lamb. And in DAC starts, Lamb is averaging 18 and a half underdog points per game. His last 25 games with DAC. That would make him the wide Super 1 by far by like one and a half points per game over Chase in that span. I am very, very bullish on Lamb, very bullish on DAC. And I'm with you on the running backs. I have not drafted Javonte Williams once. I'm a little Miles Sanders curious at like 180 because he got
Starting point is 00:41:07 basically the same guarantees as Javonte Williams. Like I view it as like kind of a coin flip on who is their lead running back last year or this year, excuse me, like the only can. case you can really make for Javonte is like, okay, he didn't lose his job. Like, Miles Sanders has lost his job twice now. Jaden Blue is still pretty interesting to me, though, just as like a, he's now going at 145, 150, really starting to slide by 80p because there's no buzz on him. But he will be, like, he has the highest upside of this trio in the sense that like he can play on passing downs and provide some, some real upside on those passing down. And he's actually, he's actually fast. Yeah, yeah, yeah. He actually, yeah, he's a high.
Starting point is 00:41:48 actually like a little bit of an athlete. You know what I mean? Like Javonte, unfortunately, I love Jibonte coming out, but he's just not the same player. And Sanders has just kind of been a slug for a couple years now. But I still don't think that there's like there can be like Dallas can smash this year, man. And there's not a right answer at running back. You know what I mean? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:06 And I think that the it's very easy look like C.D. Lamb returns to being a 50% plus slot rate player where he was close to it last year. and we get a little bit closer to what we saw target volume-wise in 2023, where he was 181 target player. Like, it's very easy to sort of see this thing working out for CD Lamb, where there's a situation where Lamb has 175 plus targets, but George Pickens also delivers and gives you like 10 touchdown grabs this year. I think, like, that sort of double bet at the wide receiver position, certainly could happen, and I think they both help each other out a ton.
Starting point is 00:42:50 Dak Prescott, obviously, with those guys. Like, Jake Ferguson, I don't mind adding. I know Scott Barrett's a big Jake Ferguson guy. I think he's a little bit more of a JAG who's in a good situation. So I've been a noted Jake Ferguson hater for years. But I have added some Jake Ferguson this year, just because I think you're not paying a premium tight end price tag for him like you had to last year.
Starting point is 00:43:14 It's a little bit easier to click the button. And I don't mind doing so because I think he could also have, you lose the number two target narrative with Ferguson, which was like sort of his thing when he had his strong 2023. But you do gain the fact that obviously Dak Prescott loves his tight ends and Ferguson thriving in the red zone could be a thing. So I'm with you on Dallas. I think they're a really fun team to stack. Minnesota Vikings. Your thoughts on Minnesota. This is a team where it's really kind of easy to put these things together because J.
Starting point is 00:43:46 J. McCarthy, we've been higher on than consensus in terms of our projections. Chris Wecht had J.J. McCarthy early on as a QB1 in our projections at fantasy points where there was a big discrepancy with him in ADP at the time that Chris put out his initial projections. McCarthy's come up a little bit. People are getting more into clicking the button. He's up to QB16 on Underdog. We've also seen him rise in FFPC where I think people are just like, Kevin O'Connell, quarterback, all the weapons around them, and McCarthy was a first round pick. It's pretty easy to tell yourself a story that McCarthy is like a breakout QB this year. Yes, sir.
Starting point is 00:44:28 And not only, like, has KOC kind of gotten production from everybody, like McCarthy, I think, has the highest ceiling of the group simply because he's the most mobile of this group. So, you know, what, the three years that KOC has been the head coach four years now. now, you know, Cousins was QB12 in 2022, three years, sorry, cousins was QB12 in 2022, then he got hurt, popped his Achilles. They still managed to finish like seventh in fantasy points for game last year, or 2020 with Dobbs and Nick Mullins. And then, you know, last year happens, right? Darnold is a, like, weekly fantasy starter.
Starting point is 00:45:09 I was, you know, completely, like, he was awesome last year. He was the real deal. QB5 and pass yards. and each of those three years, they've been top six and pass rate. Like, it doesn't matter who's under center. Like, this is what O'Connell does, right? And they just, they're going to be extremely pass heavy. They've got a really good offensive line.
Starting point is 00:45:29 Christian Darrisaw should be back off in the injury, which is huge for them. If he's back, like, this is a top five, top six offensive line. And McCarthy's price has come up. He was Cuban 19 to start this off season. We were hammering him. at that price. He's now come up to like 16, 15, 16, like you were saying, as everybody's kind of come to this realization that like, okay, he's healthy, the Vikings are fully healthy, they've just been super productive. I still think there's a lot of value in Vikings team stacks. Like, I'm,
Starting point is 00:45:59 I'm going to have more Vikings than the field for sure, simply just because I'm a big believer in this team, this trio with Jefferson Addison and Hawkinson, big believer in O'Connell. And then we have this, like, you know, kind of elephant in the room that we were not. entirely sure, obviously, on J.J. McCarthy. No one has seen it yet. But when Brett Whitefield is like as confident in a player as he is with McCarthy, like he had him as QB1 in that draft class over Kayla Williams, I just think there's an immense upside here with this team. I think the trickiest thing, though, Theo, is these running backs. Like, I've kind of soured on Aaron Jones, but it's not like, I still think he's like a decent pick. Jordan Mason's,
Starting point is 00:46:45 really come up in price. I think Mason probably gets some goal line work that kind of hampers both of them. I think what we're looking at is like if both stay healthy, they kind of cancel each other out a little bit. Like I'm always just, I'm very much like Scott in the way I approach running backs that like I'm bell cow or bust, like give me all the upside or give me nothing. And I'm not really sure I see a whole lot upside with either of these guys in that sense. That being said, though, You and I have been pushing the Addison train all summer. He is way too cheap. Even with the suspension risk at 65 overall,
Starting point is 00:47:21 he's been one of the best wide receiver two's in fantasy, and you can draft him as a mid-range wide receiver three. So if nothing else, like, I'm going to have a ton of Addison still. They're all priced right. And if anybody wants to listen to our Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason discussion, we had this a few weeks back right here on this show. we broke down each and every backfield. I can make, we could, we could spend half an hour on it.
Starting point is 00:47:46 I think that, like, I'm a little more into Mason than you are. I understand the appeal of Aaron Jones. I'll say that Jordan Addison is the easiest click there for Minnesota. I'll also say that T.J. Hawkinson's a little bit of a post-hyped sleeper because I, we're not used to seeing Hawkinson, when healthy, available at like, pick 90. and Hawkinson sort of settled into his own little tight end tier at tight end five. If there's contingent upside, if Addison misses a few games, you also have Hawkinson and Addison just both filling like a 90 target role
Starting point is 00:48:25 with Jefferson just thriving with like, you know, his 150 or so usual targets. And like, Hawkinson just being extremely efficient in this offense. you also just have the younger quarterback defers to tight end naturally because Hawkinson's going to be open. I mean, Jefferson sort of takes away a lot of those easy button targets as well. But Hawkinson, to me, I know there's some people completely out on him this year. They view him as a purgatory player. But I view Hawkinson as a very, very talented player who's now fully healthy.
Starting point is 00:48:57 And the market might say, I really wish we would have just drafted a little more Hawkinson. In FFPC, I agree with you. I think he is a little too cheap. But on Underdog, he's going to 84, 85. It feels like he is kind of a purgatory player there because, yeah, Jefferson's going to be the lead target. And there are nine games together last year. Obviously, it was post-ACL for Hawk.
Starting point is 00:49:18 But Addison was, like, even better than he was without Hawkinson. You know, Addison is just, he's such a stud, man. Like, he's going to be the second, you know, target on this team. I do think there's some limited upside with Hawk where he's, he's going, especially compared to the quarterbacks, right? It's like if you've got a chief, if you drafted Rishi Rice, you drafted Xavier Worthy, like you'd have to draft Hawkinson over Patrick Mahomes. And I just, I can't do that. That's a very good point. And that's a great professional segue, because we're talking Kansas City. From 2018 to 2022, Patrick Mahomes had four out of five years
Starting point is 00:49:53 where he had 37 or more touchdown passes, four out of five years with 37 or more touchdown passes. The one season he didn't hit that number was 2019, where he only played 14 games. On the yardage totals, in that same stretch of time, he had 4,700 or more passing yards in four out of those five years. We saw the QB2 overall finish in 2022 with 41 touchdown passes. The last two years have been complete purgatory, where Mahomes has failed to deliver at ADP, and drafters have punished him for it this year. Mahomes is at his lowest ADP price tag since heading into his MVP season in year two. You get Patrick Mahomes right now as the 83rd overall pick.
Starting point is 00:50:41 Sometimes he falls lower than that. He's in his own little mini tier where he's about a half around to a full round before the Baker, Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Bo, Nick's tier. And he's about 25 spots after the Joe Burrow, who's also in his own little team. year. Kansas City has, like you said, two appealing past catchers. Rashi Rice has steamed into round two, but Xavier Worthy is fallen. So Worthy, I think, is very interesting. Travis Kelsey is very cheap right now based on where we've had to pay for him for years. And then there's some tertiary ways to get Kansas City exposure through the back field, through players like Hollywood
Starting point is 00:51:22 Brown. Where are you at on Patrick Mahomes and building Kansas City stacks this year? I'll be honest. I have not drafted Patrick Mahomes hardly. at all in the previous two years just because I thought he's been massively overpriced without Tyree Kill and not having a field stretcher has obviously hurt the touchdowns. This is the year on back in. This is a really, really nice price to get back in for all the reasons that you mentioned. Worthy's upside is kind of being a little bit underrated, I believe. I mean, his stretch, you know, over his last eight games last year was a little reminiscent
Starting point is 00:51:55 to Rishi Rice. I still think this is the Rishi Rice offense, like all in on. on Rice for sure. But yeah, I mean, how these two play off of each other is we haven't seen it yet, right? Like, you know, when Rice was healthy last year in those first three games, it was, you know, Xavier Worthy's, you know, beginning of his NFL career. My favorite way, right? We'll just add to that beginning. He was 21 years old playing opposite Russia. Right. So like, it took Rice a long time to get started. I think that the two of us are higher on Xavier Worthy than other people at fantasy points. And this has been sort of a constant argument. I think that these two can coexist and this offense can just become very wide receiver centric this year where Kelsey potentially could be the number three target very quickly. That's kind of what I'm projecting. That's what I'm projecting.
Starting point is 00:52:48 It's like I think Rice, like we know what he'll be right. He's going to be the design target guy. He's averaging more design targets off of screens than any player in the league over the last two years. He's killing zone coverage. Like, that's their answer underneath against zones. It's just like spam crossers to Rishi Rice. Like I said, we have not seen the world where both of these players kind of get to play off each other. And Worthy certainly has like one of the widest range of outcomes of any player that's going in the fifth, you know, top five, top six rounds. Like, it would not surprise me if he was a really great wide receiver too this year and like borderline top 15 top 20 receiver at the position by points per game also would not surprise me if he's just kind of like spiked week type player where like we don't really necessarily know when those big spiked weeks are going to come but like he drops the four 102 hammers but in best ball like that I think he's a really good pick right now in best ball like he's he's becomes he's going at 46 48 overall now feel like he
Starting point is 00:53:55 is going 38, 39 to start the off season. I'm going to be drafting some worthy for sure with my Jamar Chase teams, my CD Lam teams, like being able to draft Justin Jefferson, Lamb, Chase with Xavier Worthy. It's just so much, there's so much upside on a weekly basis in bestball there where like range of outcomes really matters and that ability to have a top five scoring week really matters. Kelsey is the one that I've kind of like, I'm not fading.
Starting point is 00:54:25 Like if I have Mahomes, like, and I get Kelsey around later, like, sign me up. The way I've been playing it, though, is like, I'm pretty bullish on Isaiah Pacheco. Cream Hunt, Elijah Mitchell, Breschard, like, these guys don't really scare me, to be honest. Like, I was drafting Pacheco with confidence in the third round last year. Like, why wouldn't I be drafting Pacheco with confidence in the seventh round now that he's fully healthy? I mean, by XFP per game, I mean, he was like a, he was a locked-in or B-1. his first two games last year. I really like the idea of taking Pacheco in round seven, taking Mahomes in round eight, and then just you kind of have all of the Chiefs touchdown upside
Starting point is 00:55:06 in my, in my view. Let's not forget, Kreme Hunt got less guaranteed money in his deal than Elijah Mitchell. So I think they want Pacheco to be the guy. If he gets started hot, like he's not letting that job go. I've actually been drafting a lot more Pacheco than I thought. because his ADP price tag has not risen up to where we thought it would be. And seventh round has been an easy way to play kind of play catch up at the position and get expected volume. I've actually liked double tapping Richard Smith and Isaiah Pacheco because in the games, I think that Smith could end up having a Jerich McKinnon-like role.
Starting point is 00:55:48 And Pacheco in the games where the chiefs are leading will be the high volume back. So I think I get sort of both sides of the. coin there and I'm able to do it in round seven and round 18. And it also gives me a little bit more correlation with Patrick Mahomes. So I think we're in line with Kansas City. Feeling festive. Catch classic holiday favorites like Home Alone, the Santa Claus and Die Hard, along with holiday episodes from Family Guy, Abbott Elementary, and more with Hulu
Starting point is 00:56:17 on Disney Plus. From festive Disney flicks to binge-worthy Hulu originals, Hulu on Disney Plus is your home for the holidays. this season with Hulu, available on Disney Plus in Canada. Let's go lightning round here, Graham. Favorite player to stack with Josh Allen? Man, right now it's Dalton Kincaid. I have not been a Dalton Kincaid guy at all.
Starting point is 00:56:44 I just think he's been overpriced, but underneath the hood, his metrics actually weren't that bad by separation, by route win rate, targets per route round. Like he was top five tied in, top six tied in. like we went back and watched the film like it just seemed like Alan and Kincaid were like just missing on some plays and again it's an opportunity cost thing I really like the quarterbacks and tight ends and that like 110 to 130 overall range on underdog because you're not giving up anything at receiver receivers in that range suck and the running backs like we talked about are
Starting point is 00:57:16 all like contingent upside guys right like Zach Charbonnet and trey Benson so from like a roster construction standpoint you're really not giving up anything at the more important position and Kincaid is, I mean, he's not going to be a full-time player in the sense that, like, he plays every snap as George Kettle, like George Kittal does. But, I mean, it would not surprise me if he led this team en routes this year. Yeah, and I agree with you. It's a difficult one because Kaleel Shakir is steamed up. He's the best, like, Khalil Shakir, I think, leads Buffalo in receptions this year, but you're taking them alongside guys like Josh Down, some upside guys as well, and some other positions that are very appealing sort of inside the 80s. I haven't minded taking some shots on Josh Palmer late.
Starting point is 00:58:00 I think Palmer could be a little bit better, and especially considering I'm paying like 150 ADP price tag for him. How about Lamar Jackson? Where are we out on the best way to stack Lamar? Are you taking naked Lamar? What way are you going here? So I still remain lower on Zay Flowers upside, and it's not anything against Flowers as a player.
Starting point is 00:58:20 It's strictly just this offense. Like they're going to be so run heavy again. Lamar's top scoring wide receiver by fantasy points per game since 2019 is like wide receiver 48 wide receiver 44 Markis Brown had one season where he finished his wide receiver 27 I believe that Flowers has been the you know wide receiver 33 and wide receiver 35 again you got to take him in round five it's just like especially in the underdog half ppr I just can't get there so my way is like let's just take one of these tight ends late I think there's a world where Isaiah likely might outskirts Mark Andrews this year. I'm open-minded to that. I'm less into Rashad Bateman. Again, just kind of more
Starting point is 00:59:01 into the tight-ins and quarterbacks going on that range. And God help me, Theo. I don't think DeAndre Hopkins is dust. Like, oh, man, you get yourself some trouble with those old guys, Graham. Yeah, I know, I know. I don't think he's dust. So by our separation metrics, he actually led the chiefs in his 12, 13 games by average separation score, led them. in route win rate. He had a similar yards per route run as Xavier worthy in that span. Obviously, he was a bit of a part-time player. But I could sell myself on a few spiked weeks for New Hopkins, kind of a swan song type season attached to Lamar Jackson. Again, just strictly a best ball take. DeAndre Hopkins, you're not, you're not playing him in redraft leagues.
Starting point is 00:59:44 Yeah, I'm with you. It's the tight ends for me. I think Isaiah likely at like 141. That's where all the outside is. Yeah. Likely is awesome. And I actually haven't minded Mark Andrews as because he's in that range. He's like 106, 101.10. And when the board falls the way I like it, I don't mind double-tapping Andrews and likely with like a very late tight end and have a three tight end build with Lamar Jackson where I can really punt the position because I think in the in the aggregate, you're getting like a top five tight end with likely and Andrews. and then I just take a, you know, a Theo Johnson type towards the end of the draft, a Chicka Conquo, depending on who I'm drafting.
Starting point is 01:00:27 And I go in there with Baltimore tight end plus a late round tight end. And I think some of those teams look pretty dangerous because you have Lamar Jackson as well. Favorite way to, well, I'll say take the entire field here. Who is your, you talked about Christian McCaffrey with Brock Purdy. Is there, is there anything to Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry? Sequin, Barclay, Jalen Hertz, or even a Drake May, Travion Henderson. We could throw Bruce Hall, Justin Fields, into this mix. Hyper-Mobile quarterback, plus they're starting running back,
Starting point is 01:01:01 your favorite combination slash stack. Yeah, I think with Hertz and Lamar, with Barkley and Henry, it's a little trickier just because it's like, it's two early round picks, right? if you're taking Barclay, you're saying that he could rush for 1,800, 1900 yards again. He has the touchdown upside. With Lamar too, like Lamar and Henry's scoring was actually a little negatively correlated last year on a per game basis. So sure, yeah, you have that like, Lamar doesn't run as near as much in the red zone as Hertz does.
Starting point is 01:01:41 Obviously, they don't do the push in Baltimore. So there's that angle. It is kind of trickier. My favorite way, actually, of stacking quarterback, running back this year is Tua with Devon A-Champ. I think A-chan is just like a league winner in round two. He's starting to come up in price. But you're making a bet that Tua stays healthy, basically. Like this offense was garbage last year without Tua.
Starting point is 01:02:05 I mean, A-Cham is like the R-B-1, essentially with Tua and was like outside of the top 30 without him. So if you take A-chan, you're making a bet that, one, stays healthy, two plays well. all and plays well enough to a point where, like, you know, let's not forget, 2002 and 2002, it was actually, you know, one of the highest advance rate quarterbacks on the board at QB5 and QB6 those seasons. So my favorite way is actually to kind of play the other way is like the pocket passers that don't really run too much. I love stacking them with their quarterbacks.
Starting point is 01:02:37 We were talking Raiders earlier. I mean, Gino with J&T just makes so much sense, too. Yeah, it's sort of crazy where the Miami Dolphins, had six of the 29 highest scoring fantasy weeks. The team, the players on the Dolphins. So there was six different players that produced six of the, excuse me, five different players produced six of the 29 highest scoring fantasy weeks. So he had five different players scoring 40 or more points in a week in years
Starting point is 01:03:11 2022 and 2023. They average like 28 points a game back in 20. 23 and there's a chance where if Tua hits big this year and just plays the whole year, then Tyree kills an ADP winner, Jeline Wattles, an ADP winner, and we're taking Devon H.N. next year, like fifth overall in drafts because he has 100 catches this year. So super interesting one there. Favorite stack overall, we both sort of had the same answer here. In the article I wrote about the Los Angeles Rams, and I guess you fell on the grenade and
Starting point is 01:03:43 wrote about another team just to give a different take. they are Graham, but that's your favorite stack as well. Talk about what you see in the appeal of the Los Angeles stack. You know, it's potentially Puka Nakua, Devante Adams, and Matthew Stafford, or one of them Stafford and a tertiary piece. I just think there's so much upside with the Rams this year. I'm just super bullish on this offense. Nakua averaged 16.6, half ppr points per game in his 10 full games last year would
Starting point is 01:04:11 have made them the wide receiver two. In those 10 games, you average 3.8 yards per. route run, just sicko numbers. So it's like, yeah, NACU is awesome. They add in Devonte Adams, who beat Garrett Wilson and separation score win rate yards per route run, and they're 11 games together last year. Like, he still got it. And then it's like Stafford has been a kingmaker at receiver his entire career.
Starting point is 01:04:34 Sean McVeigh has been a kingmaker at receiver his entire career. As a team group since 2017, the Rams receivers have finished top four, Theo, top four and six out of those eight years. And the one year, one of those two years that they didn't do it, Stafford broke his back. I think it was that 2022 season or 2000, yeah, 2022 season. I'm just all in on the Kula in the first round. I love Devonte Adams and the third. And Stafford is just like disrespected, like completely disrespected.
Starting point is 01:05:06 He's the QB 24 by ADP. And it's like he's got these two awesome receivers. They have the fourth easiest schedule. by fantasy points, adjusted fantasy points for game. I mean, it's just like an easy button play. I think Stafford is going to be my most drafted quarterback this year. Yeah, they overpunished Matthew Stafford. Drafters are over punishing him because of his lack of rushing production, his age,
Starting point is 01:05:33 and just sort of the lack of excitement surrounding him. I guarantee you he outscores a few of those younger quarterbacks that are going five, six quarterback spots ahead of them. and the weapons are unbelievable. There's also Terrence Ferguson, Tutu Atwell, guys who potentially could put up big numbers on a specific week and depth
Starting point is 01:05:53 at the running back position. Offensive line should be good this year. A lot to like about the Los Angeles Rams. Completely with you on that. I'll say check out the Brain Trust article that we wrote, see what the favorite stacks were from each and every fantasy points content creator that participated in the article.
Starting point is 01:06:10 Very, very good stuff there. give us your favorite week 17 game this has become a game stacking is a whole other podcast but we'll skip the conversation and we'll just give everybody that one game the drafters should be chasing or give us a few graham that are appealing to you so real quick four of the five winners of best ball mania have done so with at least one game stack so that's two players from the opposite team facing each other four of the five have done it and it's it's it makes just a ton of sense right like at the end of the year we just started the podcast by saying that there's like going to be a ton of attrition you've got the top offenses like of course you're going to want them you know it's like this year with
Starting point is 01:06:53 the bills and eagles right you take sayquan in the first round josh allen has been like the qb1 or qb2 in every year of his career like yeah you should probably bump up josh how in the third round when you take sayquan we're talking before the show this slate looks great there's like nine games that look really, really great. I think one game that's going a little under the radar is this Jags Colts game. I just think it has a ton of upside. Last four meetings of Jags, Colts have combined for 52, 57, 71, and 49 points scored. Neither team has just wanted to play defense. And I'm very bullish on Jonathan Taylor this year. I love Jonathan Taylor behind this offensive line. And the Jags did not do anything to address their league worst. defensive interior in the NFL draft for the free agency.
Starting point is 01:07:43 They have like the stone worst interior defensive line in the NFL. Last year gave up the second most schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing running back. So when I take Taylor, I'm really bumping up some Jags stacks. Travis Hunter's getting a lot cheaper to draft. I think he has so much upside in that round five, six turn. So I've been very partial to Jags, cold stacks. obviously go back and listen to the U and I show from May,
Starting point is 01:08:11 where we basically just like make the case for Josh Downs for an hour and a half on the Colts show. But I mean, Josh Downs is awesome. And anytime I take Brian Thomas or Travis Hunter, I have been jumping ADP to get Josh Downs on those teams. Yeah, I love that take. I think that that's a game that could really pop off. Certainly Cincinnati, Arizona is a game that I think a lot of people are circling. The Los Angeles Atlanta game in Atlanta,
Starting point is 01:08:38 we don't have to worry about any sort of weather concerns. And that's sort of the Zach Robinson Bowl. Does Zach Robinson get himself a job based on what he does this year? He could be the next really smart offensive coordinator, get head coaching job. But the game, I think we both talked about, San Francisco, Chicago. We talked a little bit in the pre-show. That game's super appealing.
Starting point is 01:08:59 Ben Johnson offense, year one in Chicago could just be getting better and better and better. This could be the year Brock Purdy has a 40 touch. down past season, talk about Kittle, talk about McCaffrey, the ambiguity at the wide receiver position, and how Chicago also has some ambiguity with the past catchers, you could potentially nail a Colston Loveland, a Luther Burden, a Bears running back in that game. That just game just feels like it could be a high scoring one. Yeah, yeah, it definitely does. I mean, Robert Sala is a great coach.
Starting point is 01:09:32 I think everybody kind of came around to that after seeing what happened to that Jets defense after he left. He's a great coach, but I view the Niners as like a bottom 12, bottom 15 defense. They're in a bit of a rebuilding year, especially in their secondary. Their cornerbacks are not very good. This game has so much upside. And I think the way to play is like, okay, let's say you take McCaffrey and Quattell or McAfree and Piersoll, whatever it is, and you miss on Purdy. Like, let's say somebody just snipes you on Purdy. You kind of have an out to game stack. You can take Caleb Williams with Colston Loveland. You can take Caleb Williams with burden, like you were saying. There's just a lot of ways to play this game. And like you said, it certainly has the upside to be the highest scoring game on that slate.
Starting point is 01:10:18 Yeah, and unlike some of the receivers where we have to chase the quarterback, you can draft Caleb Williams and then draft a pass catcher. It makes it a little bit easier on you. Really, really enjoyable discussion today, Graham. Let me know what you have coming out, rest of July. Yeah, I got coaching breakdown coming down. I'm going to break down all 32 teams. from a coaching perspective, really kind of focusing on more of the new hires. Chris Wecht has helped me a ton with that article. And then I got my TIRs 150. It'll be done way earlier this year, which is awesome. I'm like crushing that article. So I'll have Tiers 150 and my super flex draft guide. Hopefully by the end of the month. I think that's the plan right now. Just head down,
Starting point is 01:10:59 get those articles done. And yeah, man, preseason football at the end of the month. We got preseason football on the 31st this year, Theo. It's going to be awesome. Yeah, love it for sure. Make sure you check out everything Graham is doing. My top 50 update for my rankings. You can read that at fantasy points now. Also, my zero and hero RB target listing. Check that out over on the site. That's a great piece. That was a really great piece. If you're if you're a zero hero RB draft, which I typically am, you got to read Theo's piece. Yeah, I appreciate that. Yeah, that was really, really happy with that article. I'm going to keep updating that as well, Graham, with ADP shifting. And off the field craziness. we've seen in certain teams. No, no, no Judkins discussion here for sure. Uh, and then make sure you're also checking out School of Scott. Scott and I have our positional breakdown, uh, episodes, uh, more of those on the way, uh, in the early part portion of August, end of July, dynasty life. And then right here on fantasy football daily, Ryan Heath will be joining me. Mike Schope, uh, from 80 from ADP chasing is going to be joining me as well.
Starting point is 01:12:03 we're going to talk about the best third and fourth round draft strategy. We're everywhere here at Fantasy Points. We're going to help you crush your leagues this season. I'll see you soon.

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