Fantasy Football Daily - Best & Worst Picks in Every Round - Best Ball Fantasy Football 2025 w/ Dave Kluge

Episode Date: May 21, 2025

Use code SCOREMORE10 at checkout for 10% OFF any subscription. Dominate your league. Win more bets. Level up your game. Which players are league-winners in 2025 best ball — and which ones could sink your draft? Theo Gremminger and Dave Kluge break down the best and worst picks in every round of early Best Ball drafts, giving you the edge you need to dominate this summer. 🔍 Round-by-round breakdowns: 🏆 Round 1: Nabers at 9 is elite — but is CMC at 12 finally a bad bet? 📈 Round 2: London surging at 16, while JT may be overvalued at 21 ⚠️ Round 3: Elite QBs deliver, but Mike Evans could bust with more target competition 🔥 Round 4-6: Daniels, Jameson, Kittle, and Jeudy pop — but is James Cook already dust? 🚨 Round 7-10: Pollard's value rises, rookies are worth betting on, and Javonte might be a dead pick 💥 Plus: A heated debate — Who scores more fantasy points this season? Ladd McConkey vs Drake London Whether you're drafting for upside, avoiding landmines, or looking for sharp value — this episode is your ultimate best ball cheat code. Tune in now! Where to find us: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/DaveKluge Join the Discord here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Fantasy Points Website - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ NEW! Data Suite - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://data.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Talking best ball strategy with Dave Kluge of football guys. Dave, this is your first time over on fantasy football daily. This is going to be a lot of fun. I'm looking forward to it, man. We've done a lot of shows together over the last few years. Theo, I love talking ball with you. And then when we were lucky enough to meet in person last year and summer in Canton, just felt like meeting an old friend, you know,

just a great guy to talk ball with. So I'm excited about today. Yeah. are you going back to Canton for the Fantasy Football Expo this year? Yes, sir. Actually, just booked everything yesterday. So doing my typical get in Thursday afternoon, fly out, or Friday afternoon, and then fly out Sunday afternoon.

So quick little trip, but always a great time seeing everybody there. Yeah, I'm on the fence. I'm trying to make it happen. It's obviously busy times over here at Fantasy Points. But I won the Kings Classic League. So I've got to show up. I've got a draft. So that was a lot of fun.

So I big shout out to everybody over there. Fantasy Football Expo is a lot of fun. If you haven't been, definitely, definitely. definitely give it a go. You meet a lot of people. But today, we've got to talk shop because we're quickly, like May is quickly winding down. Memorial weekend, Memorial Day is right around the corner. We're recording this right before Memorial Day weekend. So when we get to June, it's sort of like the unofficial start to redraft season for a lot of managers.

And then for others, they sort of come out of the woodwork after the 4th July weekend. We can kind of mark our fantasy football calendar with holidays throughout the summer. but ADP is starting to settle in, especially on underdog where there's just so, so many drafts. So we're specifically going to look at underdog values, but this should help you out in pretty much any format. You want to play NFFC. You want to play FFC. This should help you out as well. We're going to look at our favorite and least favorite, aka the best and the worst picks in every single round.

We're only going to cover the first 10 rounds because obviously this is a podcast. We don't want to go two hours here. but this should be a lot of fun. Why don't we start out with round one? Dave, who is your favorite value on Underdog right now in round one? CD Lamb, and almost every single year I'm looking at Jamar Chase, CD Lamb and Justin Jefferson kind of tied together. You look over the last three years, those have been the three wide receiver

once we've seen over the last three seasons. And I think right now, recency bias is creeping into our analysis and C.D. Lamb, that Prescott was hurt last year. He wasn't the same player that he's been in years past, but with him going behind Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson looks like the best value to me. I think all three of those guys are going to be in the running from being the overall wide receiver one this year.

Yeah. And there's a lot of really, really strong wide receiver values in round one. And I kind of piggybacked off a similar thought process. My favorite value is Malik Neighbors, who's actually going ninth overall right now. Lamb, you're having to use about a top six pick on. So I get a little bit of discount. And it's a similar argument. I think both of these guys are going to be in the running for the wide receiver.

one overall. And wide receiver one overall is not as complicated as it looks. Over the last four years, the player that has led the league in receptions and led the league in targets has finished as the wide receiver one overall. With both of these guys, I think they have the elite target ceiling and the immense spike week potential that you need to win in a best ball format. So I think Lamb and I think neighbors are both properly priced. Love neighbors this year. I think that he's a little bit underrated. Only played 15 games last year, Dave. And this year with about 85 catches, he's going to set the all-time record for the most receptions for a player in their first two seasons in the league, passing Amman Ross St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Michael Thomas,

not bad company. How about the worst player to click in the first round? It's tough. I don't think there's any like egregious values in round one. Anybody you take in round one, you know, you want to kind of get exposure to all of these guys throughout the course of the offseason. And This one pains me to say because I love Nico Collins, huge fan. I was pounding the table for him for years. But at the end of the day, if you look at it, he is average less than 15 points per game over the last two seasons. And now he's got some added target competition there in Houston. I think Jaden Higgins does a lot of the same things that Nico Collins does.

Now, I don't think that he's going to get pushed to the back burner and be the wide receiver too by any means. But a lot of what we've seen over the last couple of years was him kind of being the only guy there. Now with Jaden Higgins there, with Jalen Knoll there, with Christian Kirk there. we're going to see that target volume squeeze a little bit. And of course, the spike week potential is still there. Nico Collins can score from anywhere in the field and you like that. But you'll look at his scoring profile over the last couple of years and the new target competition there in Houston.

That's a tough click for me to get inside a round one. Yeah, it's interesting because Scott Barrett and I had Chris Wecht, who's our projections guy over at Fantasy Points. He just updated our projections. And he has Nico Collins as wide receiver 12, which we thought was a little low. he made some of the similar arguments you made. Also, Nico Collins has been like hyper-targeted in terms of like target percentage, all the metrics like first read rate under Bobby Sloick. Now you have a change to a more of an LA Rams potentially a little bit more spread out. And I think Collins still

dominates targets. But like you said, Jaden Higgins, Jill and Noel, Christian Kirk, all three of those guys get interjected into the passing game. So I don't know. Collins for me, I've clicked his name. It doesn't feel like as much of an edge as it did last year. For me, the worst value, and I'll get a bunch of pushback on this because I'm sort of the resident not fully in on Christian McCaffrey guy right now at fantasy points. Graham Barfield's all in on him. Scott Barrett's all in.

Chris Wecht has him like running back five. Brett Whitefield and I are sort of like, you know, the guy dropped down to 14 points per game last year and he'll be 29 this season. So a little bit of red flags there, a little bit of ageist in this. But for me, we've seen Christian McCaffrey, like, right before the NFL's raft, McCaffrey was like the 17th overall pick. Now he's steamed up. He's like the 12th overall pick.

And Dave, in FFPC main event, the early one, he's, or like the early 350s, you're seeing him go like eighth overall, seventh overall and some, some like one-off drafts. NFFC, he's like top 10 pretty often. I think that on underdog, you're going to start seeing McCaffrey pass by certain guys, like you mentioned, Nico Collins. I think McCaffrey, like, he'll have resistance getting by Ashton Genty, but I don't think it's out of the question that you're talking about him going like 9th, 10th overall.

For me, that's a little too rich to click a button on an older running back coming off of an injured season. Yeah, and I think in underdog, you know, especially where people are playing in these big tournaments, swinging for the high end rage of outcomes, it makes sense for him to be going where he is because if he can rewind the clock and be the Christian McCaffrey of old, you're getting a great value, even if you're taking an eighth, 10th, 12th off the board. But I feel like this happens all the time where we see these guys who are clearly getting off the backside of the age curve. And then as we get distance from the previous season, we start to move these guys up draft boards. We saw it last year with Cooper Cup, right?

Like as soon as the season ended, he was a fifth round pick. By the time week one rolled around, he was sneaking into the early second round in a lot of drafts. We're seeing the same thing with McAfrey now, but we're just seeing that transition a lot earlier in the off season. And I think some of that has to do with some of the training camp clips that we've seen come out. We've heard the story about him meeting stem cell. treatment on his Achilles to hopefully and that issue, the same treatment that George Kittle had. So I understand why he's getting pushed up, but man, it's a scary pick to get a 29-year-old running back who's trending down with the first pick.

Yeah, and taking him ahead of Derek Henry, even though like I said, I'm an agist, like Derek Henry, we saw what he was capable of last year in Baltimore. He signs a two-year extension. We have like kind of a little bit more confidence level in this Baltimore Ravens offense, sort of leading the NFL and scoring if we're going to bet on one of these two offenses. For me, Derek Henry going behind Christian McCaffrey seems like an improperly valued player. And also, Brian Thomas going behind Christian McCaffrey, if I'm chasing that elite edge, like those two guys just seem a lot like much more dangerous players for my build.

Let's keep it going for round two. Who's your favorite pick? My favorite pick in round two is Ladd-McConkie. And I think if you look at his whole body work, you might not even understand why he's going in round two right now. but you look at what he did over the second half of the season. He was a completely different player from week 11 to onward. He saw a huge uptick and usage, but he also saw a change in deployment. Rather than playing primarily out of the slot, he started playing the X role.

He started playing deeper down field. And we saw his per game output jump to 99 yards per game, which is great. And that doesn't include the 197 yard outing he had in the playoffs against Houston. I think we've just seen Ladd McConkey establish himself as the wide receiver one in this charge's offense, something we, haven't seen since Keenan Allen was there. And we know that Justin Herbert really likes to lock in on that number one guy. So when I'm seeing the guy in his rookie season, averaging nearly 100 yards per game for half the

year, that gets me really, really excited. I think that he should be a little bit closer to Brian Thomas, you know, with him right now going to pick 19. I'd be okay taking him as early as pick 12 if he moves up there. But I think right now sitting in 19, the ceiling is so high that he's just one of the best clicks you can make him round two. Yeah. And we have a similar thought process here.

because I'm also chasing wide receiver. I agreed. I think McConkey's a really, really strong value. We have him as wide receiver seven in our projection. So we're very high on him as a site. But for me, it's Drake London. Drake London, I think, is sort of the arbitrage play to guys like Pukukukua, guys like Malik neighbors,

even guys like CD Lamb, where Drake London, if we're trying to chase a wide receiver that could lead the league in targets and catches in the second round, I think it's London. So chasing that wide receiver one, overall ceiling, I think, is there with him. The sample size for the Michael Pennix is small, but in three starts last year, where the two of them played together, we had a 39% target share for Drake London,

which was 13 targets per game, absolutely ridiculous. He averaged 23 points per game, and he had a 0.41 targets per route run, a 50.6% air yard share. I mean, we're talking about off the charts metrics for the two of them playing together. and Drake London, I think will absolutely, you know, there's the idea that Kyle Pitts gets more involved, I think is there. I think Darnal Mooney is fine. Bejohn Robinson is obviously fantastic, but the passing game is going to center around Drake London. I think he's an awesome click inside a round two, but I love your McConkey call as well. How about your least favorite pick in round two, or you could call it the worst pick in round two, whatever, however you're feeling, Dave.

Just piggybacking off Drake London real quickly. I just want to point out that I think the, uh, people don't talk about it often, but like the style of quarterback play and style of wide receiver play with their perfect pairing. That's when you see magic happen like we saw with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Cup a few years ago. And Michael Pennix, if you look at what he did in Washington, he's not afraid to throw the ball to targeted or to covered wide receivers. He lets his guys go up and make plays. And that's what Drake London does best. So I think the issue we've seen with Drake London over the years is he didn't have a quarterback that would trust him to make contested catches. That's exactly what Michael Pennix did over those final three games.

So I'm really excited about Drake London. My favorite pick, though, in round three is Rashi Rice. And I'm going to defer to Drew Davenport here. We're talking favorite picks or least favorite picks. I forgot which one we're starting. Oh, no, we're saying least favorite round two pick if I misspoke on. Oh, sorry, I jumped ahead. All right.

I'm going to get so much crap for this one and I apologize. But Bucky Irving right now going in round two is a little bit too steep for me. I understand the efficiency was off the charts last year, but this is still a crowded running back room. And last year that Tampa Bay offense was running so hot on variance. you know, they were breaking all the tackles, they were scoring all the touchdowns. And it's tough to predict that that carries over again into this year, especially with Liam Cohen gone now. So I'm a fan of Bucky Irving.

I think he's a good talent. If I can get him in round three, I'd be more than happy to do it. But seeing him go ahead of guys like Josh Jacobs and Chase Brown, it's really tough for me to get on the Bucky Irving train this year. Yeah, and it's interesting because in this format, Bucking Irving, like you said, has gotten steamed up. He's going 22 overall. I like, it sounds like we're kind of splitting Harris,

but I've loved getting Bucky Irving in like managed FFPC type format somewhere in the early third. But like you said, it's the opportunity cost here of where you're taking them. I think like drafting Bucky Irving in this range, you're really, really betting on him, taking away the entire receiving profile away from Rashad White. Like if Bucky Irving goes full on Devon A-chan this year as a receiver, then he hits here. But taking him at 22 overall, it's like drafting a player kind of at his ceiling. on underdog. So I'm kind of with you. I like Bucky a lot, but I'll take my chances on him and manage more so than this best ball format. And I'll stay at the running back position. Jonathan

Taylor is another player that I just can't click with a lot of confidence where I have to take him 20th overall. Like we're talking about a player who's missed time in all but one season of his career. And I think it's a lot of recency bias, Dave. Like Taylor last year won people fantasy playoffs. And and to his credit, he was absolutely fantastic in this incredibly high volume role. I think it's sort of, again, we're drafting him at his, at his peak outcome. The Colts offense could struggle a little bit this year. They have quarterback question marks. I just don't have the confidence in Jonathan Taylor challenging for the RB1 overall.

And if I'm going to click a button at 20th overall and on underdog, it's got to be a guy that gives me that peak ceiling outcome. So I think Taylor, like, he's fine. And again, I'm fading a guy who had 1,400 rushing yards and had multiple strong games to end the season. It just doesn't feel dangerous to me. Am I completely off on that one? No, and it's so hard talking about guys. You're fading in the early rounds because all these guys are good.

And that's why they're all getting drafted inside the top 24. Jonathan Taylor is a great player. And we saw the spike week possibility late in the year. But I'm with you when you just look at the whole body of work and the players that he's going ahead of. It's tough to click him. We didn't talk about Josh Jacobs as a good value, but I think both of these guys we've talked about here,

talking about Jonathan Taylor and Bucky Irving, with both of them going ahead of Josh Jacobs, I think Josh Jacobs is a better value than both of them, and you can get him later, which is kind of wild to be. Jacobs is always a little bit underrated and pushed down, no matter what the year, it seems. Last year, Jacobs also had this high volume role, but again, we don't have the question marks about the offense

that we do with Indianapolis. I, you know, a little more confidence in Grebe. Andy catches passes. Andy catches passes. And he actually caught a touchdown pass last year, which was nice. There you go. Hopefully this year can keep that street going. Let's take a quick break.

We come back. Dave's talking about round three. Welcome back. Fantasy Football Daily. Theo Graminger joined today by Dave Kluge. Dave, let everybody know where they can find your work. Football Guys.com. I'm doing the Football Guys Fantasy Football Show,

the Football Guys Dynasty show and the launch pad. So staying busy doing quite a few. shows over there. All that written content is coming out as well. But if you just follow me on Twitter at Dave Kluvie, I share all the content that I'm making so you can see it right there on Twitter. Yeah, highly recommend Dave's work. And I'd say we're each like simpatico here because I'm, I'm on three shows over at Fantasy Points. You're on three shows over at football guys. It's it's a lot of fun this time of year, a lot of work. But Dave, you put the prep in. All your shows turn out very well. Love the show that you put out with Alfredo. It's absolutely

strong stuff. Highly recommend it. Scott Barrett and I had a chance to go over. on the show with you and Alfredo. That was a lot of fun a couple weeks ago. And you guys joined us on School of Scott. We'll have to do that again sometime. But let's keep this thing going. We're on to round three. Give us your favorite value. I already slipped it a little bit when we were talking a couple minutes ago, but Rashi Rice, man, you know, you look at a per game basis last year. He was the wide receiver two before he got hurt. And we saw in his rookie season, it was kind of, they slow rolled his development a little bit. He was a part-time player for the first half of the year, but we saw this blistering, eye-popping per-rout efficiency.

And then it actually happened. The thing that we always hope happens where that efficiency opens up into a bigger role. And over the second half of his rookie season, Rashi Rice was on a tear. Of course, a lot of that came on manufactured touches, where he was getting screens and slants, where he could rip off plays after the catch. The hope going into year two was that he'd develop into a more well-rounded receiver and then coming out the gate last year in year two. He's running these deep crosses across the middle of the field.

he's beating guys on the boundary and getting deep downfield. And then he goes down with the knee injury, unfortunately. But it appears like with that being such an early injury in the season, he is on track to play early in 2025. And of course, there's more target competition now. You know, they brought back Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquis Brown is healthy, Xavier Worthy broke out. I understand all of that.

But Rashi Rice's role in this offense is so critical. We saw the per game output last year that I'm willing to bet on it, that even if he gets out of the gate with a slow start because of that knee injury, I'd expect him to be the wide receiver one down the stretch and the upside in his offense is just so high. Yeah, and also with Rashi Rice, you have the added element that if Travis Kelsey continues to sort of regress, a lot more of those easy button targets go to Rashi Rice. He's Patrick Mahomes' first read guy.

He's also the first down guy in the offense. And they didn't really address anything in the running game to put a bell cow there to sort of take away touches in the offense. So I think that the passing game in Kansas City could be very strong this year. You mentioned guys like Hollywood Brown, Jalen Royals. But when it comes down to it, Rashi Rice and Xavier Worthy together, those guys compliment one another so well. Rashi Rice last year, somewhere in the sliding doors, Dave.

If Rashi Rice had stayed healthy, where would he be selected on underdog drafts now? I think significantly higher than where he's going in the third round. I mean, if he stayed healthy and he averaged what he did over that small sample early in the season, it'd probably be a first round talent. Like I said, only Jamar Chase was outscoring him on a per game basis. And if you look at what he did at the end of his rookie season, all of the telltale signs were there that he could be a dominant wide receiver. So now we've got a lot of question marks, how he's going to come back from the injury, how he's going to fold in with all of these new past catchers in Kansas City.

And then, of course, illegal troubles, which Drew Davenport, who we have on staff over football guys is a lawyer. and he looks at a lot of this stuff, he's pretty confident that Rashi Rice is going to avoid suspension in 2025. Looks like that might be getting pushed out to 2026. So I think the only real concern we have is the knee. And of course, that could get him off to a slow start, but a healthy Rashi Rice would probably be going in the top 12th. So my favorite value in round three is actually towards the tail end of round three. When I'm picking in the back end of round three, it's such an easy click for me to add Josh Allen or to add Lamar Jackson. And when it comes down to it for this best ball format, both of them are very easy to stack.

Mark Andrews, Isaiah likely, Rashad Bateman, Azay Flowers, all go after Lamar. And all of Josh Allen's past catchers go significantly lower than he does. So they're very easy to stack and add correlation to my team. And with these two players, there's no questions about the hit rates. Both of these guys are going to put up strong seasons. They do pretty much every single year. and they offer me a potential difference maker, Dave, where they could really leap the field once again. I'm going to talk about another couple of quarterbacks, but at the end of the day,

when I draft these guys, I also have access to doing a two-quarterback build, which I don't necessarily feel as comfortable doing. So structurally value, and in terms of spike week ability, they click off all boxes. Allen and Jackson, easy clicks for me in round three. And they're going late in round three.

Like these guys were getting pushed up like early round two over the last couple of years. So I think there's just a great value now being able to get them a little bit later. How about your least favorite selection inside of this round? This has to do a lot more with underdog ADP than it has to do with the player himself because I see Mike Evans as wide receiver 20 and I don't think that that's an egregious value at all. But the fact that these wide receivers get so pushed up and that if you want Mike Evans, you've got to take him ahead of Breeze Hall and Omari and Hampton and some of these other guys,

that to me just speaks that we're probably getting a little bit too overboard with wide receivers. Mike Evans is a great player, but we're definitely seeing the signs of decline right now. Like they had to force him a touch in the final minutes of the game to get him over to 1,000 yards again. But now going into his age 32 season, I already talked a little bit about the concerns with Bucky Irving, with Liam Cohen being out of the picture. I have some of those similar concerns with Mike Evans. And then you also look at who they drafted in a Mecca Buka. He can only play out of a slot at this point in his career, which means that Chris Godwin is going to get pushed outside.

So now you're looking at Chris Godwin and Mike Evans competing for those outside targets, where Bucca is going to be that target magnet in the middle of the field out of the slot. I think there's a lot of red flags with Mike Evans, especially using a top 36 pick on him. Yeah, and I had Mike Evans as well. So we're completely in line on this one. It just seems like a potential, it's sort of a non-edge pick for me in this round. And this round is littered with old wide receivers, guys that are a little bit older. And the Tyree kills, the Mike Evans, even Terry McCorrin, we could have talked about

being sort of drafted towards his ceiling. Devante Adams actually think is probably the best value of among the old guys, but completely in line with you with Mike Evans. I don't think Jalen McMillan is going to be completely invisible either. You're talking about a passing game that we have a ton of confidence in, but I think everybody's target share goes down just a little bit. And Dave, Chris Godwin last year was well ahead of Mike Evans in the scoring column before Chris Godwin was lost.

Again, Mike Evans ended the season really, really well. got over 1,000 yards again, but I don't think he's giving you that sort of edge this year. So we're completely in line on Evans not being a strong value at the end of round three. Let's keep it going with round four. Who's your favorite pick? You talked about Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, and I agree that those guys are great picks, but I have Jaden Daniels in the same tier as them. The only thing Jaden Daniels has that Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen don't is

Jaden Daniels doesn't have the prolonged consistency. You know, we've seen Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson do it year after year after year. Jaden Daniels, we've only seen it in the one year sample. But you look at his abilities as a passer. He has to all answer all of those questions last year. We know he's a great rush here. Now they've got some extra weapons on this Washington offense. They beefed up the O line a little bit.

I think Jaden Daniels is just as likely to finish as the overall QB1 as the guys that are getting drafted ahead of him. And for me, if I'm not getting one of these three guys, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Jaden Daniels. I find myself waiting until a little bit later in drafts because I feel like we do have that kind of quarterback dead zone in the middle rounds. But Jaden Daniels is one of those difference making guys and you can get him half a round later than the other difference makers. And we're again completely in line on this one. In round four when one of Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen falls, it's occasionally you see Lamar Jackson in this round. He's a great click. but Jaden Daniels is right now the best value on the board.

He's going at 42.8 overall. So you're getting him in a range where sometimes he goes 10 picks behind QB1. And I actually think by the time we get to the end of the summer, the gravitational pull of Jaden Daniels being kind of next to those other two guys is going to be there. We have him as our QB1 overall in our projections. And Scott and I are both on the Jaden Daniels wins MVP this year. We saw Patrick Mahomes win the MVP award in his second year in the league. We saw Lamar Jackson win the MVP in his second year in the league.

Like year two quarterback MVP awards has been a trend when it comes to these truly elite players. Daniel is one of them. And I'll also throw out that Jameson Williams is a value that I absolutely love. He's going at 47.3 overall. I just think that there is a chance. There's like a range of outcomes where Jameson Williams has a phenomenal season. He was at 91 targets last year. with a offensive coordinator change,

we're seeing John Morton really talk up Jameson Williams having a breakout season. The guy averaged like 14 points per game last year. I think there's a chance that Jameson Williams ends up being like a 16 and a half point per game score, tons of spike weeks, and challenges for a low-end wide receiver one season. I think he's very underrated right now in his best ball price tag.

And Dave, if we're betting on a guy who would just put it together for a three-week stretch, James could absolutely do it, help you win the money. Yeah, completely agree. I mean, this guy has such a rough NFL career so far, drafted off the ACL, then the suspension. We finally saw him with like a full healthy offseason coming in last year. We saw him break out and he still just turned 24 less than a month or like just over a month

ago. Still a very, very young player. I think his best days are absolutely ahead of him. Jameson Williams is an easy click. Least favorite pick in round four. Now, you already mentioned this guy a little bit earlier as a guy that you like. so I'm a little bit nervous to mention his name, but Xavier Worthy right now where he is going off the board. Last year we saw so much volume thrust in his way.

Travis Kelsey had just fallen off the age cliff. Every wide receiver got injured. Isaiah Pacheco got injured and they were forcing the ball to Jameson Williams, but still he didn't have a hundred yard game until the Super Bowl. And so much of that just came with that F you throw late in the game when the game was already out of hand, three scores. So I get a little bit worried about Xavier Worthy. We definitely saw the usage late in the season. but I talked about the added competition that they brought into the wide receiver room through the draft and through free agency. Rashi Rice back there, I do see a world where I can be wrong where Rashi Rice is kind of the underneath guy, Xavier Worthy is the deep threat.

But last year, that's what they tried doing early in the season, was using Xavier Worthy as the deep threat. He and Mahomes couldn't get on the same page. It was late in the year when they had to kind of force him these manufactured touches, using him the same way that they used him early in his career at Texas, that we saw some production there. but even that was so buoyed by touchdowns. The usage wasn't great. The efficiency wasn't great. I just think that now with a slew of healthy receivers in Kansas City, we could see Xavier Worthy cool off a little bit.

I could definitely see a world where he outperforms his round four ADP, but I could also see a world where he's given you round 10 value and you drafted him in round four. So I think round 10 value would be a huge stretch. I could see myself being wrong on this one. I'm going to take my chances on Xavier worthy and Dave, you're not the only like smart person who's been way lower than I am on Xavier Worthy at this point. I know I was just on a pod with Scott and Danny Kelly joined us and I took

Xavier Worthy in our like it was a year one and year two dynasty dynasty mock draft. So we did like a startup with only rookies and sophomores. I took Xavier Worthy a little higher than those guys would thought he deserved to go and they sort of crushed me for that one. But with Worthy, how can we really put this back in the box? I understand Rashi Rice wasn't there, but you're talking about a guy who was in his rookie season that ended up being significantly used down the stretch. And again, I think that these two players can really, really coexist.

And I think there's going to be a lot of self-scouting in the Chiefs building where despite having all these other solid players like the Hollywood Browns, the Jalen Royals, the Travis Kelsey's, and their slew of running backs, at the end of the day, the two best things that they have on offense are Rashi Rice and Xavier Worthy. I think there's a chance both of these guys finish us like top 15 scores at the wide receiver position. I'm going to continue clicking the button on Xavier Worthy. So it's kind of me against the world.

I'll be the resident Xavier Worthy guy over here at Fantasy Points. And we'll, I'm sure, talk about this one during the season. I'll say for me, my least favorite pick inside of this round is probably James Cook. James Cook's entire season was sort of really, really elevated by the touchdown scoring. And to his credit, he was absolutely phenomenal, had the second most touchdowns for a Buffalo Bill's running back in history behind only O.J. Simpson. But James Cook, the snaps were just not there compared to what we're seeing for some of the elite running backs.

You're talking about a guy who is having to deal with Ty Johnson on passing downs, also potentially a little bit more Ray Davis, just a little bit more, would be a huge pain. for James Cook managers. So it's a bet on touchdown regression. And then there's also the outside chance that this contract dispute really lingers all offseason. There's potential that there's going to be holdouts in training camp. The whole situation is just one I'm looking to avoid. So it seems sort of counterintuitive to fade James Cook in round four based on his RB1 production last year. But I'm willing to take the dive in. I will avoid clicking that button, had a ton of James Cook last year, but I will have a lot less James Cook this year.

Yeah, I think Ray Davis in round 11 is a lot more fun to click than James Cook in round four. I'm completely with you there. How about round five? Who's your favorite? My favorite pick in round five is Jalen Waddle. And I think that we've just gotten to the point where we are just frustrated with Jalen Waddle and for good reason.

I mean, the guy has just been banged up nonstop for the last couple of years. Seems like he's always in the blue tent. but we do see the spike week potential every now and then. And now with Tyree Hill getting a little bit older, not the same player that he was. I could see that changing of the guard finally happened. We got to remember Jalen Waddle was one of nine players in NFL history to start his career off with three straight 1,000-yard seasons.

He is a good player, may not have lived up to his draft day potential. He's always kind of been in the shadow of Jumar Chase, but I still think that now punishing him by pushing him all the way down to wide receiver 32 is just a huge overcorrection. If Tyree Hill does start to flame out a little bit this year, and Jalen Waddle can step up. We've seen him win in multiple ways. His rookie season before Tyree Hill was in the picture,

he was just a target magnet pulling the second highest targets per route run in the league. And then in year two, when Tyree Hill showed up, he became more of a downfield player. His ADOT went up, his usage went down, but then he was a hyper-efficient player. What we've seen over the last two years is that when he's on the field, he still has that year-two efficiency while pulling the year-one usage. The problem is that he's just always hurt. So I think that if Jalen Waddle can stay healthy, the sky is the limit. and seen him scratch his potential.

But after four years, what we deemed disappointing, based on his draft day hype, I think that the market is just starting to sour on him. But pushing him down to wide receiver 32 is just way, way, way too much of an overcorrection. Yeah. And you also have the added element that Tyree Kill could still get moved this offseason. And if that happens, Jill and Waddell's going to jump like six spots in the wide receiver ADP. I agree with you. I think Waddle is a really, really easy click this year.

Just simply getting back to what he did for the first three seasons of his career. And Dave, the Dolphins gave him that massive contract heading into last season. They're going to want return on their investment. A lot of pressure on Mike McDaniel this year to hold on to his job. So you're going to have to really get things going. That whole get the ball out of Tuatunga by low his hands, get it into Jonu Smith and Devon A Chan's hands. That's a cap ceiling type offense. You've got to get the Jalen Waddle and Tyree Kill back on track.

I really like that. For me, George Kittle. George Kittle is the easy click in this round because I'm, I'm able to get him significantly lower than Brock Bowers. Bowers is going as a early, early round two pick right now. And I'm able to get him significantly lower than Trey McBride, who's going at the end of round two. With George Kittle, George Kittle actually led the tight end position in points per game last

year, had over 1100 receiving yards, sort of the ageless wonder. George Kettle gives me tight end one overall upside. You also have this lack of clarity of. about the target distribution at the wide receiver spot in San Francisco, where Brandon Ayuk, when is he going to be back? Ricky Purcell, we both really like him, Dave. We did a breakout player's episode over at Dynasty Life a few weeks, a few, actually about two months ago at this point.

And we really like Ricky Purcell, but again, that's still a projection for him for the full season. George Kittle having his best season of his career is not out of the question this year, despite being 32 years old. Yeah, how is it this is like the six year in a row? that George Kittle has just been an amazing value. I don't know. Every single offseason, we just overthink George Kittle and then he just comes out

and is a top three tight end year after year. 100%. How about your worst value in this round? So this is, again, kind of just an underdog thing. I don't think that you're going to see Joe Burrow going this high and a lot of other platforms. But here we have people reaching for Jamar Chase, reaching for T. Higgins, and then becomes a fight to see who's going to end up with Joe Burrow. But where he's going right now is QB5 in round five.

You're just betting on touchdown variance. It's not a bet that I'd like to make. I would much rather wait until later in my drafts to take some of these year two quarterbacks who have some rushing upside. We can see Bonix, Caleb Williams, Drake May, potentially a little bit of variance goes in their direction. They can easily outscore Joe Burrow. And Joe Burrow is a good player.

And I understand why he's going where he is because of the importance on stacking in these formats. But it's just way too steep up a price for me. Yeah, I love Burrow. And again, the reason that I have so much of them on underdog is because because I have so much to Mar Chase and T. Higgins. I like, like, Burroughs for different formats, like if you're in a redraft league,

I think, and especially a six-point passing touchdown format, I think Burroughs a really, really fun click this year. But on Underdog, the lack of rushing upside for him versus some of these other elite quarterbacks, that could come into play. So I don't necessarily consider him a bad click, but there's a little bit less of an edge there than some of the other quarterbacks to go around him,

specifically where he goes. right around Jalen Hertz this year as well. Let's talk about mine, which is Zay Flowers. Zay Flowers at Wide Receiver 29 just seems a little bit rich. This has been a guy where Flowers has given us spike weeks, but it's been sort of few and far between. For me, it's just, do I get as much of an edge taking Zay Flowers, a guy who's had nine touchdowns for his career on Underdog,

he's had 167 points and 172 points in his first two seasons in the league? where there's just more dangerous clicks, I think, with some of the wide receivers behind him. Like you mentioned, Jalen Waddle. I like Jalen Waddle a lot more than Zay Flowers. He goes behind him. George Pickens goes behind him. Jordan Addison goes behind him. Even a guy like Jowon Jennings, I think, could outscore Zayflowers.

For me, Zay Flowers is just sort of a, it's sort of a purgatory pick. And I think that he's pushed up a little bit because you want to add a Lamar Jackson target. So Zayflower is definitely a fade for me. Let's pivot over to round six, Dave. My favorite target in round six is Alvin Camara easily. I was just looking, fantasy points has this great feature where you're going to look at touches, touch totals and touches per game. I use that tool often. And Alvin Camara, fifth and touches per game last year.

So we know that the usage is still going to be there. They didn't really add any sort of competition. So he'd expect to see him in the normal role that we've seen for the last few years. Right now he's getting drafted as RB20. as long as he has been in the league, he has never finished worse than RB20. Like when we say that you're drafting a player at his floor, you are drafting Alvin Camara at his floor. And I get it, he's getting up there in age.

We don't know what this saint's offense is going to look like. But until he gives me reason to bet against him, I'm not going to. And right now there's no reason to bet against Alvin Camara. I think we're just at that point where everybody is, you know, rookie fever, getting really excited about the young guys. But Alvin Camara deserves to be up two rounds higher than where he's going right now. this to be not only the best pick in round five, or in round six,

but I think just one of the best picks, period. Yeah, and we're projecting him to average 16 and a half points per game. So, like, even with the, I think that the Saints offense in general is getting absolutely battered. The NFL gave them no primetime games this year. All of their ADPs are getting pushed down because it's going to be Tyler Shuck at quarterback. But if Shuck is just not the worst quarterback in the league,

then you're going to see Alvin Kamara and Chris Alabe potentially return value. We both believe in Kellyn Moore, the signal caller. And Kamara, I had him listed as well. I think he's a fantastic value, going right around 60th.

And Dave, this is another one where I could see there being a little bit of correction throughout the summer, where people are like, what am I doing? Why am I not taking Alvin Kamara a little bit earlier?

Average 19 points per game last year. So unbelievably good value. I wrote down Jerry Judy for this one. another player that I think is really strong in this round. Jerry Judy took a big step forward last year, had 140 targets, finished as the wide receiver 12 overall. I think this is another offense that's getting really bruised and battered

because of the lack of clarity at quarterback. But at the end of the day, you mentioned with Kamara they didn't add anyone. With Cleveland, instead of having Travis Hunter drafted as number two overall and Judy sort of coexisting with a wide receiver who's a top five pick, it's going to be Cedric Tillman, who has a very small sample size. And obviously, David and Joku is still a highly targeted tight end.

Maybe Harold Fanon Jr. works in as sort of a hybrid slot slash tight end, and they run a lot of 12 personnel. But no matter who the quarterback is, Jerry Judy is going to be highly targeted and heavily featured. I think that this is a guy that you're able to get sort of as a around wide receiver 29, one right receiver 30, maybe even a little bit lower range. and I think he could beat his ADP by 10 positional spots. I think top 15 wide receiver potential for Judy is there. And I think that him having an even higher target share and target total is also in the realm of possibilities.

Elijah Moore is gone. And Elijah Moore, it might seem like it's a nothing kind of guy. But Elijah Moore had his career high and catches last year. And he actually had a number of games where he was highly targeted in this offense. So Jerry Judy, a really fun click, both structurally and gives me a little bit of upside inside of round six. Anything to add on Judy before we get to your worst value in round six? I think he's going to be a little bit contingent on who the quarterback is, but I just had this discussion with Devin Knott's, who's a Browns fan and one of our staffers over at football guys yesterday.

And I told him that based on who the quarterback is, if it's Joe Flacco for the entire year, Jerry Judy for me falls in his wide receiver 18. If it's Kenny Pickett, you move him back a little bit. If we get into the Dylan Gabriel and Shador Sanders starts, then I start to panic a little bit. But I think if Kenny Pickett is the quarterback, he's accurately priced. If Joe Flacco is the quarterback, this is just an egregious misprice on Jerry Judy because we saw Joe Flacco averaging over 50 past attempts per game in this Kevin Sopansky offense. We saw what he did for Amari Cooper.

If Joe Flacco ends up starting the majority of the games or even just in the fantasy playoffs, Jerry Judy is one of the best picks out there. I will take the mystery box Dylan Gabriel over Kenny Pickett all day. day long when it comes to those guys. Yeah. And Joe Flacco, Joe Flacco would be fantastic. We think about the success he had with Amari Cooper and David and Joku. Like in real life football, if Joe Flacco is your starter, Cleveland, not going to win a whole lot of games this year. But for fantasy football, it's going to be fantastic. So absolutely start Joe Flacco, start the old guy. For me, my least favorite click is a player that I've had a lot of exposure to over the last few

years, but it's David Montgomery. Because I don't think the market is quite projecting the chance that with John Morton taking over, with Ben Johnson gone, does David Montgomery see maybe 15% fewer touches than he did under Ben Johnson the last two years per game basis? Jemir Gibbs took this massive step forward to end the season. And it was certainly because Montgomery was missing. But how can you put that back in the box? If you're trying to win a Super Bowl this year,

Jameer Gibbs is just arguably the most exciting offensive talent in the game. the potential to take it to the house every time he touches it and incredibly efficient inside of the red zone. For me, I just think there's a chance that Jemir Gibbs in his third season in the league has this unbelievable season. And David Montgomery gives you a little bit more like RB3 value than how he's being projected as the RB 24. He just seems like almost a purgatory value to me in this round,

a little less exciting than he was in years past. Yeah, and I mean, played 24 games over the last two years and scored 25 touchdown. So you're basically banking on him to score touchdown a game. And if this whole lion's offense takes a little bit of a step forward, that touchdown equity isn't there. And then you really lose out on value. So I'm with you. And my least favorite pick in this round is another Detroit Lion, Sam LaPorta, who right now is getting drafted as the tight end four. I was completely off on Sam LaPorta last year because of some of the underlying metrics, his target share, his targets per route run.

Well, that fell off an even bigger clip. going into year two. Last year he was 14th in target share, 26 in yards per route run. We've talked about the emergence of James Jameson Williams. We've talked about the loss of Ben Johnson, how this whole offense could look a little bit different right now with where Sam Laporta is going at tight end four. I'm okay having zero percent Sam Laporta this year. Yeah, and I had this conversation with Brett Whitefield this week on Dynasty Life. And he's very bullish on LaPorta. And I like Leporta as well. I think when you're looking at redraft, you're looking at Dynasty. I think he makes some sense if you're able to get him a little bit lower. But in terms of

best ball, if I don't get that top three tight end this year, I think the best way to go is go a little bit lower than Leporta. Because again, it starts getting a little bit sketchy when we get to, we're going to talk about rounds eight, nine, and ten after a quick break, but it gets a little bit sketchier in value after here. So I'd rather take it a non-tight end position in this round. definitely an interesting one. Let's take a quick break and we come back. We're talking about around 7, 8, 9, and 10. All right, Dave, let's get this going.

Round 7. Who is your favorite pick right now? Ricky Pierceall, and we've talked about the ambiguity a little bit of this 49ers wide receiver room. I agree what you said earlier about George Kittle. I think he is a great pick. But right now, looking at Brandon Ayuk, who's coming off the ACLTA.

Look at Juan Jennings, who has been a stalwart in this offense, but doesn't possess the highest ceiling. The guy I want to bet on is Ricky Pearson. And I think the fact that he was able to even see the field in his rookie season, that alone is a miracle. I mean, we see it all the time where guys get injured in the preseason. And then they're just kind of take a zero for the rookie season and hope to reroll in year two. But he came out after missing the majority of the preseason after that gunshot wound and still

was able to not only see the field, but to become a consistent part of the offense. And if you go back and you watch that game against Detroit, I think he got a little taste of what he can be as the wide receiver one. They were using him in all the creative ways that we like to see. He was getting that Debo usage out of the backfield. He was getting the Brandon Ayuk in breaking routes across the middle of the field. He was getting the Joanne Jennings outbreaking routes near the red zone. He was playing every single position that we like to see in this Kyle Shanahan offense.

He has that versatility. He's got the athleticism. We already saw him start to really heat up over the second half of his rookie season. And I'm expecting that now going in a year or two with a clean bill of health. hopefully a full and healthy training camp as well. Brandon, Iyuk, probably not in the picture for week one. I think Ricky Pearsall could lock in that wide receiver one spot this season. Yeah, I love the Ricky Persol conversations that we've had.

And I agree on his potential to have a massive, massive breakout this year. Talk about Roma Dunzee, Marvin Harrison, Jr., two guys that were more highly drafted that a lot of people are betting on to take big year two leaps. Purcell could actually be the one that has by far the most room to run. and turn out to be the best value in all formats. And getting those manufactured Debo Samuel touches, they'll have to do it in a different way. But if you look at their roster,

Purcell makes the most sense to get those. Debo, obviously, he's not going to get the 40 rush attempts that Debo got. But I think just getting the ball in his hands around the line of scrimmage makes this offense more dangerous. We know he's got big play potential. I love that pick. I think a lot of 49ers are good values this year. For me, I love Tony Pollard in this round.

I think when we look at guys like David Montgomery and a couple of the running backs that were drafted ahead of Pollard, for me, Pollard last year started out the season extremely strong and then ended it poorly, came back, was a little bit banged up. And towards the end of the season didn't really produce. With Cam Ward, I think that this offense is going to be a lot better and a lot more functional than what we saw last year. So I think Tony Pollard could end up going more like a 15 point per game guy than the 12 and a half. that we saw last year. But if we look at how we started the season, starts out the year a wide receiver, a running back 12 week,

a running back 18 week, running back 14 week, a running back 15 week, all within the first five weeks of the season. I think we're going to consistently see those sort of numbers. Tennessee offense will be improved this year. And for Tony Pollard to hit, they don't have to be like a top 15 offense.

As long as they're not towards the very bottom, I think he's going to deliver on this sort of ADP. Yeah, I completely agree. Pollard is one of those guys that, like, the very rare situation where we see a guy with just insane efficiency in the shadow of another running back. Then he moves to a new team. We see that efficiency maintain over a bigger sample. And he's just what we had hoped for years and years and years ago.

It's finally come to fruition. I'm completely with you. I think that he's the clear lead back in that Titans offense. How about the worst value in round seven? I want to go with Patrick Mahomes. And it's not a fun player to bet against, but we're looking at it right now. He was the QB eight two years ago. he was the QB 11 last year.

We're starting to see that slip a little bit, and that directly coincides with what he's doing as a rusher, where last year is 19.2 rushing yards per game where the few is since 2019. So he's not throwing the ball anymore. Travis Kelsey is aging. He doesn't have that big play threat and Tyree kill anymore. We're just seeing a very different Patrick Mahomes,

where he is just checking down on the short little dink and dunk passes. You don't see the explosive plays anymore. You don't see the elite rushing upside. I understand why people are betting on him at QB6. But again, like I talked about earlier, if I can't get Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Jaden Daniels, I think a lot of these other quarterbacks are kind of in this dead zone where you're just betting on guys and hoping that variance breaks in their direction, where I think there are just much better high upside quarterbacks that you can wait on it and take later in the draft. Xavier Worthy catches yet another stray from Dave Clugie with the no big play guy. Yeah, you know, I think Mahomes like, again, a lot of this is pushed up because it's Patrick Mahomes. There's always sort of a breaking point where he can't fall below this.

level in ADP because he's Patrick Mahomes. He's given us these unbelievable seasons. But as he's getting older, he's becoming a little bit more like Tom Brady was, where Brady was like the greatest quarterback of all time, but a lot of times didn't give us any sort of an edge in a format like this. So I'm with you there. I think that he's okay, but certainly not an edge pick in this round. For me, we're budding heads on this one.

We talked a little bit about it in the pre-show. DeAndre Swift in round seven, again, just feels like a guy that doesn't give me a whole lot of an edge. Like the chances for him to finish as an RB1, despite being in the Ben Johnson offense, are very, very low. And I also think that this is a guy where Ben Johnson moved away from him at least once in his career.

And I realize this was for Jemir Gibbs, but what if Rochon Johnson has the goal line work and he's a little bit more in this David Montgomery role? And what if Ben Johnson is a little bit more pass-happy? And some of those targets that might have gone to D'Andre Swift in the past, passing game, instead go to a guy like Luther Burden, a guy like a Roma Dunezay, or a guy like a Colston Loveland, getting those guys involved around the line of scrimmage. So for me, DeAndre Swift is just a little bit more of a purgatory value as opposed to an edge pick. I understand if you're

doing it because of structure, Dave, like if you start out with a little bit more of a zero RB build and you want to catch up at running back, Swift is going to give you some of these RB2 weeks. I just think he lacks a lot of RB1 weeks in this offense. Yeah, I am like known as one of the biggest DeAndre Swift haters out there. I'm not a big fan of just the way he plays football. You know, he's constantly trying to dance around defenders rather than running through them. And that's something that we've seen plaguing his tape since he's come into the league. And there was a fun hard knocks a few years ago where Deuce Staley was like ripping into him in

the preseason for playing like that. I think that's why he got pushed out of Detroit for Jabal Williams and Deaunt and Jemir Gibbs. But looking at it right now with Rochon Johnson and Kyle Menangai being the only competition in the backfield. DeAndre Swift's never finished less than a per game RB2, top 24. So I see the value here. I think the big fear and why I don't like drafting DeAndre Swift right now is because Nick Chubb and J.K. Dobbins are still looming out there.

And the bears have been tied to rumors about trading for Zach Charbonnet and Ken Walker and Travis E.T.N. and Breeze Hall. It sounds like they aren't done building out this running back room yet. So I think if you're projecting it right now, I think there's a good value in DeAndre Swift, but there's still a lot that can change between now and week one, and that's where my biggest fear lies. Yeah, we know that during the draft process, they attempted to get Trayvion Henderson.

The price wasn't right. If Trayvion Henderson was and ended up being a bear, D'Andre Swift would be like going in like round like 12 or 13. So definitely an interesting one. Let's talk about round eight, your favorite pick in this round. My favorite pick, you just mentioned it, Luther Burton. Ben Johnson has talked so much about how his offense is built around the slot receiver. And when he talks about that, he goes all the way back to his days with Danny Amandol and Jarvis Landry in Miami.

And he talks about what he did with the Monra St. Brown in Detroit. And I came across this clip recently from about three weeks before the NFL draft where a reporter asked him, you know, you've talked about the importance of a slot receiver before. You've got Romadunes that you've got DJ more. What do you think about those guys? And, you know, I'm not like a body language expert by any means, but he didn't seem overly thrilled about the idea of either of those guys played in the slide. He said, well, you know, we see it on film. They can do it.

how well they can do it. I guess we'll just have to see in training camp once we get some boots on the grass and we'll kind of figure it out from there. Didn't sound overly thrilled about the idea of a Dunezay or D.J. Moore in the slot. And then fast forward three weeks, they draft Luther Burden, who was a primary slot receiver. So I look at Luther Burden. I mean, this guy is a freak athlete.

He can do all of the same things a Monrus St. Brown could do. And if you're looking at this offense where Ruma Dunez is playing flanker, DJ Moore's playing the ex receiver and Luther Burden is in the slot, it's not crazy to think that Luther Burden could actually be the highest scoring wide receiver on this Bears offense. Yeah, it feels a little bit like Garrett Wilson rookie season where the guy gets pushed down, but you have for the wrong reasons. Burden, we also heard Ben Johnson call him a stud to the media,

like doing everything he can to tell you that Burden's going to be a big part of the offense. And during rookie minicamp OTA, like rookie mini camp, Burden operated only in the slot. So if they had plans to move him around, they certainly would have done it at rookie minicamp. I love burden. I had him circled.

I also think of Mecca Agbuka for the same reason where there's obviously there's other pass catchers around these two guys. But with Tampa Bay and with Chicago, it's passing games that I have confidence in. And I love taking the high upside young player in this round where if I miss, I'm missing on an eighth round player. But if I hit Dave or if there's an injury, both of these guys would be immense values. but my favorite value in this round, we talk about Jonu Smith. I think Johnny Smith's in a great spot to return a ton of value.

We have him as the tight end four overall in our projections, and he's going inside of round eight, took a massive step forward last year. I don't think the market is quite baking in Johnu Smith's potential. Like everybody's sort of like, and we talked about it, like we're both bullish on Waddle, but what if Johnu Smith can maintain almost the exact same role as he did for the second half of last season? and they just build on that. I think Smith is in a great situation

and he's a great value for me structurally. He also allows me to sort of pass on tight end until this range and walk away feeling like I have some danger in my build. I'm just happy that it worked out for Johnny Smith because this was another guy that had like the eye-popping athleticism and efficiency early in his career. And now we see him in a full-time role where he's finally feasting. I'm with you.

Like I said, you know, I'm not crazy about pulling the trigger on Sam LaPorte and some of these other mid-round tight ends. but I think Janu is the exception to the rule because of the usage that we saw in that offense. How about your worst pick in round eight? It's Darnel Mooney, and it's just a boring pick. I mean, you talked about it earlier. I think you said Darnal Mooney is okay, I think is the verbiage you used. And that's exactly how I feel.

I don't think that it's an egregious pick by any means. I just wonder what type of ceiling you're getting there. I'd much rather roll the dice on some of these mid-round picks, guys who could really tilt the league in either direction. I don't think there's any world where Darnel Mooney is finishing inside the top 15, top 20 receivers. Last year we saw one game where he had double-digit targets, and that was in a game where Kirk Cousins had to throw 58 times.

In an overtime matchup, he had one game over 100 yards. And I think that we just see this target tree consolidate a little bit more to Drake London and a little bit more to Kyle Pitts. Darnal Mooney is a good separator deep downfield. That's not the type of player that Pennix looks to. I think he's going to look for his two big, tall, contested catch guys in Kyle Pitts and Drake London. And I fear that Mooney is just going to be kind of an afterthought in this offense. Yeah, and this seems like an overcorrection from last year where Mooney was a really good value.

You're getting him in like round 14 last year. Now he steams up like six rounds. It's an overcorrection. He's completely a purgatory value. I also think Brian Robinson is a purgatory value in this round. I was torn between those too, to be honest. Yeah, it's just so boring. Like drafting Robinson.

And Robinson and Austin Echler almost had the exact same points per game last year. They're both like at 11 point something points per game. I think that Robinson maybe averaged like 0.3 more points per game than he did. This year they have to deal with Debo Samuel, where Debo Samuel don't underestimate Debo as a runner in this offense. Plus, you have to deal with Jaden Daniels around the goal line taking a big step forward. Daniels was second among all quarterbacks in rushing yardage last year. This year he could pass Lamar Jackson by. So like Brian Robinson again, it's sort of a theme for me and also for you, these boring

picks are not what we're chasing into when we're trying to win a big tournament like underdog. Let's keep it going for round nine, Dave, your favorite value. You might laugh at this one a little bit, but I'm going back to the Justin Fields. Well, I mean, this is the guy that we've just seen when he is on the field. He is just printing QB1 weeks with a sky high ceiling. I'd argue that he is in the same

tier of rushing as Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, and Josh Allen. Of course, he is not the level of passer of those guys. But this is the first time in a few seasons that we've actually seen the path for Justin Fields to start a full 17 game season. I don't think there's any chance that they flip over to Tyrod Taylor this year. I think they're going to give him a good, honest opportunity to win this job. What it looks like beyond 2025, I don't know. Maybe he goes back to the Jets.

Maybe he becomes a backup somewhere. Maybe he has a great year this year and gets a multi-year deal elsewhere. But for the sake of 2025, he's going to be the starter barring injury. And he's got Garrett Wilson, his college wide receiver one there. He's got Breece Hall in the backfield to open things up a little bit. And he's got that opportunity every single week where he can rush for 150 yards and two touchdowns. So getting drafted right now is QB11. I think that that is about his floor, assuming he starts the whole season.

And the ceiling is just so, so high for a guy like Fields. Yeah, Justin Fields averages the second most rushing yards at the quarterback position all time, behind only Lamar Jackson and ahead of Michael Vic, which is just wild. Justin Fields also in the best ball format. You don't have to worry about the weeks where the Jets might struggle as a team so much. You just have to worry about the spike week. So if you structure your team well, Justin Fields is part of like a three quarterback build.

I think it's an absolute cheat code. I love that call. And I'm sort of with you on the quarterback position in this round. For me, it's Bo Nix. And Bo Nix last year we saw have immense spike week ability. Bo Nix gave us some incredible weeks, had that huge game against Kansas City to end the season when when the fantasy season was over for everybody, but gave us multiple weeks where he gave us like top five scoring weeks.

And I don't think the market is baking in Bo Nix taking a step forward at all. It's sort of like it's sort of like last year, it's sort of everybody's expecting when you're talking about second year players and you ask everybody their favorite breakout quarterback. It's always Caleb Williams, Drake May. there are some J.J. McCarthy people out there. and Bo Nix, nobody just mentions it that he was special last year, led his team to the playoffs, and now they add R.J. Harvey. They add Evan Engram. They add Pat Bryant. They have a good offensive line. There's a lot to like about Bo Nix's situation. And when we talk about stacking and correlating, there's a number of Broncos that you can add to a Bo Nix build.

I think he's a really, really fun one, Dave. And also for you Week 17 people, that Kansas City, Denver game that could pop off in a game where we're chasing points. How about your least favorite pick in this round? It's Jordan Mason. And I just don't know, maybe you can try to enlighten me on this one, Theo. I'll say Graham Barfield's really good with the running backs. He had the same take you did. He cannot understand how Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason are so close to one another.

Yeah. I'm seeing a lot of enthusiasm for Jordan Mason in Dynasty startups and high-stakes drafts. I think drafters might get caught a little bit here. Aaron Jones was in such a good role last year. And I like Mason a lot, Dave, but they only gave up like a seventh round pick for him. It's not like they gave up significant draft capital. And they just gave Aaron Jones $20 million.

They gave him a big contract. And he has just been a stud since he went to Minnesota. He was the clear workhorse last year. And when I see Mason, what I'm seeing is just a handcuff, which is great. Like those guys have a lot of value in baseball, but I don't think those guys should be going in round nine. I just don't get it.

I think that he's way too expensive for a handcuff. And I think that if something were to happen where Aaron Jones did go down, we'd probably see more of Ty Chandler than we'd like to. I don't think they would just open the gates up for Jordan Mason and give him 20 plus touches a game. This happens all the time where we see these guys that look great in a Shanahan offense as a running back. And then they hit their next landing spot. We find out, oh, they're just kind of a league average back. And the fact that the 49ers were willing to move off of him for a seventh round pick,

I think that speaks volumes to how they felt about him. Yeah, and for me, my least favorite pick in this round, another guy who lacks the edge, it's Michael Pittman. Michael Pittman's whole game is based on being a highly targeted player. He's, of course, had some phenomenal seasons for us in fantasy, but this is not the right environment for Pittman. It's not only an Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, argument, but it's Josh Downs, took that big leap last year and year two.

I think he'll clearly run ahead of Michael Pittman. Then you add in the Tyler Warren selection, where Warren is a guy who's going to get his manufactured touches, potential to be a top two target on the team. Michael Pittman is just an absolute purgatory value. There's wide receivers that I like that are being drafted behind him. I think in this sort of best ball format, Pittman just lacks that edge that I'm chasing to look for players who can really, really spike weak and really, really help my team put up massive numbers. Yeah, same for me. I mean, if you're drafting Pittman, what's like the best case scenario? you're hoping you can get 11, 12 points per game over the whole course of the season.

It seems like that's kind of his ceiling. And I think that you hit the nail on the head too with Tyler Warren. Tyler Warren and Josh Downs, I think they're going to feast in this offense because there are limitations at the quarterback position. Those are the guys that are going to work near the line of scrimmage. They're going to get the easy manufactured touch touches. They're not going to be scheming up those touches for Pittman. He's just going to kind of be that guy going across the middle of the field, clearing out

the defense. But without seeing 140 plus targets, I just don't think there's any ceiling there. He's not the type of guy that can have these big, breakaway plays. You're just hoping that he's going to catch the ball a hundred times. Let's wrap it up here. Round 10, your favorite player? Evan Ingram. He was hurt last year, but in the two seasons prior, he gave us top three production. I don't want to buy into the whole Joker role thing because I don't think that Evan Ingram is that type of athlete. I don't think that he's going to be able to go out there

and play like Prime Jimmy Graham did, but I still think that he can be a very valuable, consistent target across the middle of the field. And really it just comes down to that. this team needed a tight end. We've seen top five ceiling from Evan Ingram as recently as two, three years ago. And now with him on a big contract and what I expect to be an ascending Broncos offense, talk about avoiding some of those mid-tier tight ends. But I think Jono Smith and Evan Ingram, where they're going is tight end eight and tight end nine. I have them much higher in my ranking.

So I'm okay clicking them in these middle rounds. Yeah, Engram's a great call and a player that I think is in a really good spot. Structurally, he makes a ton of sense in this range as well. But for me, I'm going to stay on Denver. I gave you Bo Nixon round nine. Why not add some correlation with Marvin Mims in round 10? We talk about guys who are quote unquote, better in best ball. And I think better in best ball is oftentimes like a crutch for us where you don't know how to

properly rank a guy. So you say, I'll just take them in best ball. But with Marvin Mims, I don't have to worry about which week to start him. I can just take away the spike weeks. And Mims ended the season so well. He had three wide receiver one weeks from weeks 13 to, week 18. So a lot of his production was backloaded, but it was a player that I think Sean Peyton had some trust issues with. Rookie year was very frustrating for us in fantasy, but Marvin

Mims was a player that I loved as a prospect. I think last year took a big step forward towards the end of the season. And if this Denver Broncos offense takes a big step forward as a team, I think MIMS in round 10 could really, really deliver. I only have to chase upside in this round. And if Mims gives me like five, six starts on the year, I'm, I'm in a great, great spot. Three wide receiver one weeks from weeks 13 to 18, including some just massive scoring numbers. Your quick thoughts on Mims.

Yeah, I think it's a great pick. I mean, I'm looking right now over, you know, from week 13 onward, he was the per game wide receiver 14. I mean, just unbelievable, like outscoring a Moner, St. Brown and C.D. Lamb over the final month and a half of the season. So the upside is there. And I think he nailed it, too.

There was some sort of like trust issue. For whatever reason, Sean Peyton didn't like Marvin. Had that one big fumble where, Mims was like on mims gave us a couple of weeks where we're like, okay, the Marvin Mimms thing is happening. And then he had that huge fumble and they end up losing the game. I think it was the Jets game. And it was like on a punt return. And after that, he went into Peyton's dog house, but seems totally on board now.

So here we go. And when he broke out, that's when we saw that big step forward from Bo Nix too, where Bo Nix was giving us some serviceable weeks early in the season. But then once he unlocked the deep ball, then it made Cortland Sutton's job easier and opened up rushing lanes for Bo Nix. then we got the big play upside from Marvin Mims as well. So I think that having a guy like that is integral to the entire offense. And you know, you talk about the genie out of the bottle. I don't think they could put Marvin Mims back in the bottle after what we saw

over the final month of the season. Who is your least favorite click in round 10? Ooh, I, uh, I'll go first if you want, if you need a second. No, I got it here. It's Keon Coleman. Sorry, I clicked out of the tab on accident. But Keon Coleman, just not a great rookie season. He had a single 100-yard game in the entire year.

He only had one game with double-digit targets last year. And that was Week 18 with Trubisky, where we only had two catches for 31 yards. I understand there was a lot of pre-draft hype for Keon Coleman, but more often than not, when we see these guys just face-plant as rookies, we don't typically see a year-or-two bounce back. And Keon Coleman falls into that face-planter bucket for me.

So maybe he can figure it out, but I just look at they were trying to get him the ball last year. Couldn't get on the same page. never really scratched the surface even of what we wanted to see. I didn't see any flashes. There's just nothing from his rookie season that allows me to get excited for his year to outlook. Yeah, and I haven't to have Matt Harmon on Dynasty Life soon,

but Matt Harmon talked about in the process, you know, after Keon Coleman was drafted, his potential to be a big slot. Buffalo doesn't use him like that. So we're really banking on Keon Coleman being an outside wide receiver who can catch a bunch of touchdowns in this offense. maybe that's the way that Coleman beats you, Dave, for passing on him. But adding Josh Palmer, it's another mouth to feed, and they paid Khalil Shakir. So it's going to be a kind of a crowded target tree for Josh Allen.

Interesting one there. I'll say for me, my least favorite pick is one that I've unfortunately made a couple times that it never feels correct. Javante Williams just feels like everything I said about D'Andre Swift, but on steroids, where Javante Williams has been a guy that hasn't cracked four yards per carry in consecutive seasons, really a shell of his former self athletically. Does Javante Williams even run a 4-7 right now if we line up up and had to run the 40, Dave? Just doesn't have the burst.

I think if I'm going to take a shot on a Dallas Cowboys running back, it's Jaden Blue or Miles Sanders late. I don't want to take Javante Williams here. It just feels like an absolute purgatory selection and one that could end being a total zero for me as well. Yeah, it feels like the same bet last year that everybody made on Rico Dowdle. Like, you know, he's going to get touches in this offense. The balls is to go somewhere. And Rico Dowdell, sure, if you look at it, you know, he finishes an RB2, which probably sounds great. He was the RB 22, but the average 11.1 yards per game, or 11.1 fantasy points per game.

He didn't have a single game where he eclips 20 yards. And that's the thing. Like, there's just no spike week ability. Like, when is Javonte Williams ever going to break a tackle and then go off to the races and score an 80-yard touchdown. It's not happening at this point in this career. And I think that last year, a lot of his production was propped up by how many targets went his way in that Denver offense. You're not going to see that same target share going his way now in Dallas. So I'm with you.

Jvante Williams, love the prospect, but that knee injury was just brutal. And I don't know if he's ever going to be able to completely put it in the rear view. So we got 10 rounds in the book here, David. At some point we're going to have to do our late round sleeper show because this was an absolute a lot of fun. Let everybody know once again where they can find your work. Yeah, Footballguys.com or you can follow me on Twitter at Dave Kluge where I share all the content that I'm producing. Yeah, highly recommend all of Dave's work. Stick with us here at Fantasy Football

Daily. We're going to help you crush your leagues this season. Joe Dolan is going to be joining me over the next couple of days. We're going to record one where we're talking about ADP values, sort of piggyback on some of the stuff that Dave and I did today. And have a great Memorial weekend as well. We'll see you soon.